Sitrep 2025-05-11 10:47:25

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 11, 2025, 10:46 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment remains characterized by intense and persistent ground combat, primarily focused on Donetsk Oblast. While a 30-day unconditional ceasefire proposal has been put forth by Ukraine and European leaders, with a joint call involving Donald Trump, Russian responses have been dismissive, and reports from various sources indicate fighting continues unabated in key areas, particularly in Donetsk Oblast and the Kursk border region. Russian aerial activity remains significant, with ongoing guided aerial bomb (KAB) and drone strikes across multiple regions. Ukrainian forces continue to utilize drones effectively for targeting and reconnaissance, and both sides are engaged in intense drone warfare. Diplomatic efforts persist, with Turkey reiterating its readiness to host peace negotiations, but a clear path to de-escalation is hampered by the differing stances on the proposed ceasefire. The India-Pakistan conflict appears to have de-escalated significantly following a US-mediated ceasefire agreement. Information operations, particularly around Victory Day themes, remain prevalent. Internal issues in both Ukraine and Russia continue to be reported.

Key updates from the latest messages:

Continued Intense Ground Combat on Eastern Fronts: Военкор Котенок reports Russian advances on the Krasnolimansky direction, claiming units of the "Zapad" Group of Forces have advanced to the approaches of Grekovka from the direction of Makeyevka, captured an enemy stronghold, cleared several positions south of Makeyevka, and expanded control in the Rovchak gully area. Fighting continues for dominant heights near Zelenaya Dolina, and the assault on Redkodub is ongoing. Russian assault units have reportedly approached Kholodezi, which is surrounded on the flanks. Russian units have also reportedly advanced south in Torske towards the center. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 provides a critical analysis of a recent "counterattack" by the Ukrainian 100th Separate Mechanized Brigade in Toretsk, describing it as "maximally unsuccessful" with significant losses for Ukrainian forces and a tactical and media advantage for the Russians. DeepState highlights critical errors in the Ukrainian operation, including the use of a large, fast-moving mechanized column in open terrain susceptible to FPV drones, insufficient artillery and drone support, and a lack of contingency planning. This report underscores the ongoing heavy fighting in Donetsk Oblast and provides valuable insights into the challenges and lessons learned from tactical engagements.
Ongoing Russian Air and Artillery Strikes: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation towards Donetsk Oblast. A subsequent report indicates launches of guided aerial bombs on the border of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. STERNENKO reports on Russian KAB strikes on Pavlivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, severely injuring a 75-year-old woman and damaging residential buildings, followed by an FPV drone attack injuring another woman. Два майора reports intense Russian artillery strikes on Ukrainian positions in the Tetkino area, Kursk Oblast, with over 30 strikes near the railway station, and mentions Russian aviation activity in the area. ТАСС reports two women were injured in a Ukrainian drone attack on the village of Guyevo, Kursk Oblast, on May 10th, despite the claimed Russian ceasefire. These reports confirm the continued use of devastating aerial and artillery strikes by Russian forces.
Diplomatic Efforts and Stances on Ceasefire: ТАСС reports Pope Leo XIV, in his first sermon, called for peace in Ukraine and a ceasefire in Gaza. This is a humanitarian call for de-escalation from a significant global religious figure. ТАСС and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны report that Turkish President Erdoğan stated Turkey is ready to contribute to ensuring a ceasefire and lasting peace in Ukraine, including organizing negotiations. This reiterates Turkey's willingness to act as a mediator and provide a platform for talks, particularly in response to Putin's recent proposal for negotiations in Istanbul. Colonelcassad interprets Erdoğan's statement as a signal that Turkey is ready to host the proposed negotiations on May 15th and suggests that Ukraine's willingness to attend will determine Russia's future actions. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС expresses skepticism regarding the potential for a ceasefire, arguing that Russia will only stop when militarily constrained and that past ceasefires have been violated. He emphasizes the need for strong Ukrainian defense and highlights that Ukraine's advantage lies in the quality of its forces, not just quantity. This reflects a Ukrainian perspective that prioritizes military strength as the primary factor in achieving peace.
Escalation and De-escalation in India-Pakistan Conflict: While previous reports indicated a significant escalation, further updates regarding this conflict are not present in the latest messages, suggesting no immediate change from the previously reported US-mediated ceasefire.
Continued Russian Military Claims and Information Operations: MoD Russia provides a detailed summary of Russian military progress as of May 11th, claiming their forces strictly observed the ceasefire from May 8th to 11th while Ukrainian forces committed over 14,000 violations, including five attempts to break through the state border and numerous attacks and reconnaissance efforts. They claim to have repelled all attacks and inflicted significant losses on Ukrainian personnel and equipment across multiple regions. They also claim to have shot down numerous Ukrainian UAVs and JDAM bombs. With the end of the ceasefire, they state they have resumed operations and inflicted further losses. This report is a significant piece of Russian information operations, attempting to portray Ukraine as the aggressor during the claimed ceasefire and justify the resumption of their own military actions. НгП раZVедка reiterates the Russian MoD's stance that negotiations must first address "root causes" before a ceasefire, and that Ukraine will not accept the necessary conditions (ceding territories, limiting armed forces, non-NATO status), making negotiations without a halt to hostilities the only option. Старше Эдды interprets Putin's proposal as a response to the Western ultimatum for a ceasefire, emphasizing Russia's willingness to talk but not on Western terms and stating that Russia will take territory if negotiations fail. «Зона СВО» shares a video with derogatory language towards Ukrainians and claims about Russian invincibility, reflecting aggressive information operations. Mash на Донбассе shares videos and photos of a reenactment of the 2014 referendum in Donetsk, promoting the narrative of popular support for the DPR and highlighting Russian media presence. Народная милиция ДНР shares a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian temporary deployment point, aiming to showcase Russian military effectiveness. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian HMMWV, also intended to highlight Russian capabilities. Colonelcassad shares a photo of apparent dummy radar equipment, suggesting Russian efforts to deceive Ukrainian targeting. Alex Parker Returns uses dismissive and derogatory language towards Ukraine and supports the Russian Foreign Ministry's stance on negotiations, reflecting a hardline, conspiracy-minded narrative. Рыбарь dismisses reports of Iran supplying Fath-360 missiles to Russia as likely hype, indicating skepticism even within pro-Russian channels regarding certain claims.
Ukrainian Deep Strikes and Cross-Border Activity: ASTRA and КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno report that a production building at the "Shcheglovsky Val" enterprise in Tula Oblast was destroyed on May 7th as a result of a Ukrainian attack. This facility produces crucial air defense and anti-tank systems, making this a significant strategic success for Ukraine. They also report a central workshop at the "Basalt" plant in Moscow Oblast was hit. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming Russian forces destroyed a US-made Bradley fighting vehicle near Iskriskivshchina, Sumy Oblast (near Tetkino), stating it was attempting to break through the Russian border. This suggests continued Ukrainian attempts at cross-border operations in the Kursk/Sumy border region. Два майора reports on continued Ukrainian attacks on Nova Pohoshch, Bryansk Oblast, with houses burning, and reports Ukrainian forces are conducting engineering works (digging in) on the outskirts of Ryzhevka forest, Sumy Oblast, near the border, and conducting artillery strikes on Russian positions in the Tetkino area, Kursk Oblast.
Ukraine Focusing on Military Logistics and Personnel Support: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on providing over 81 million UAH worth of equipment to 29 units on the Zaporizhzhia front over the past week. The list includes over 1100 drones (FPV, DJI, Matrice, Mavic), 20 UAV complexes, 11,800 remote mining means, building materials, ground stations, communication/power supplies, buggies, and robotic complexes. This highlights a significant and ongoing effort to equip Ukrainian forces, particularly with modern drone and robotic capabilities. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares the story of a 21-year-old marine ("Contrastnyi") who joined at 18, fought in Mariupol, was wounded, and is now retraining as a dog handler in the logistics forces. This human-interest story aims to boost morale and highlight the resilience and continued service of Ukrainian military personnel. Олександр Вілкул reports on meeting with Serhii "Volyna" Volynskyi, a defender of Mariupol and Hero of Ukraine, in Kryvyi Rih to discuss veteran policy and support for military units. This indicates ongoing efforts to support veterans and connect them with the community. 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України provides a report on their combat work from May 4th to 10th, highlighting effective operations and providing links for recruitment and support. This communication effort aims to inform the public about the brigade's activities and encourage support. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is fundraising for vehicles for the 1st separate assault regiment "Da Vinci" operating near Pokrovsk, highlighting continued need for logistical support for frontline units. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the transfer of two HIMARS with escorts in Mykolaiv Oblast towards Kherson, indicating potential preparation for operations on that front. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" is fundraising for equipment for Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO), offering signed items from high-ranking military figures as incentives. This indicates continued efforts to equip elite units.
Internal Russian Socio-Political Issues: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video reportedly of a Russian servicemember discussing post-war racketeering and violence by returning soldiers ("SVOshniks") who are unwilling to work for low wages and plan to extort businessmen, threatening violence against them and their families. This raises significant concerns about the potential for increased crime and social instability in Russia due to the return of veterans from the conflict.
Symbolic and Humanitarian Activities: Ukrainian officials are sharing Mother's Day greetings, emphasizing support for families. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares information about a healthy food campaign and the creation of a culinary hub for school meals, highlighting efforts to support civilian well-being and infrastructure. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a Mother's Day video from the State Special Transport Service. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) shares a Mother's Day video.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (including Pokrovsk, Dobropillya, Kramatorsk, Bogatyr, Pavlivka, Romanivka, Oleksandropil, Nova Poltavka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Chasiv Yar, Bila Hora, Mayske, Predtechyne, Druzhba, Toretsk, Scherbynivka, Dyliivka, Myrolubivka, Kotlyarivka, Myrne, Zorya, Malynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Dachenske, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Novoserhiyivka, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriyivka, Kostyantynopil, Vilne Pole, Pryvilne, Bahatyry, Shevchenko, Novopil, Grekivka, Makeyevka, Rovchak gully, Zelenaya Dolina, Redkodub, Kholodezi, Torske): Continues to be a primary focus of intense ground combat. Liveuamap sources, citing the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, report active clashes and repelled attacks on the Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka axes, with numerous locations mentioned. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian forces engaged a Russian infiltration attempt near Pokrovsk during the claimed ceasefire. Colonelcassad lists Dobropillya and Kramatorsk as targets of Russian "Geran/Gerbera" strikes after the ceasefire ended. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also lists Dobropillya as a target of FABs. РБК-Україна and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 report on Russian guided aerial bomb strikes and FPV drone attacks on Pavlivka, causing damage and civilian casualties. Воин DV claims discovery of materials indicating low morale among Ukrainian forces during clearing operations in the southern part of Bogatyr. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of a Ukrainian FPV drone targeting a Russian sniper. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is fundraising for vehicles for a unit operating near Pokrovsk. ASTRA reports 3 people were injured in Donetsk Oblast due to Russian attacks over the past day. Colonelcassad shares a map reflecting claimed Russian advances on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions and correction of control zones near Andriivka and Novoserhiivka before the ceasefire. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs towards Donetsk Oblast. Liveuamap source reports clashes near Novopil and Novosilka on the Novopavlivka axis. Liveuamap source reports 13 enemy attacks repelled near Kostyantynopil, Vilne Pole, Pryvilne, Bahatyry, Shevchenko, and Novopil on the Novopavlivka axis. Liveuamap source reports two enemy attacks repelled near Stepove and towards Novodanylivka on the Orikhiv axis. Liveuamap source reports clashes near Novopil and Novosilka on the Guliaipole axis. Народная милиция ДНР shares a video claiming destruction of a Ukrainian temporary deployment point. MoD Russia claims to have repelled numerous Ukrainian attacks and inflicted losses across multiple regions in Donetsk Oblast. Kotsnews shares a video claiming Russian "Vega" special forces are destroying enemy armored vehicles on the Pokrovsk direction. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video from Malinivka near Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, highlighting the proximity of Russian forces and the intensity of shelling and drone activity. Военкор Котенок reports Russian advances on the Krasnolimansky direction near Grekivka, Makeyevka, Rovchak gully, Zelenaya Dolina, Redkodub, Kholodezi, and Torske. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 analyzes an unsuccessful Ukrainian counterattack in Toretsk. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares video of Russian drone operations on the Donetsk direction. Президентська бригада ЗСУ shares video of Ukrainian drone operations on the Donetsk direction. Воин DV reports continued ceasefire violations on the Southern Donetsk direction.
Sumy Oblast (including Bilopillya, Vorozhba, Konotop, Iskriskivshchina, Cherneve, Ryzhevka, Bessalovka, Pavlovka): Subjected to Russian aerial strikes (guided aerial bombs) and shelling of border settlements. Colonelcassad lists Bilopillya and Vorozhba as targets of Russian guided aerial bomb (UMPK) strikes after the ceasefire ended, and reports 2 explosions from RSZO/OTRK. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 lists Konotop as a target of FABs aimed at foreign personnel, and mentions strikes in Sumy. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming Russian forces destroyed a US-made Bradley fighting vehicle near Iskriskivshchina (near Tetkino) during a Ukrainian attempt to cross the border. Liveuamap source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Cherneve. Два майора reports Ukrainian forces are conducting engineering works (digging in) on the outskirts of Ryzhevka forest, Sumy Oblast, near the border. MoD Russia claims to have inflicted losses on Ukrainian forces near Ryzhevka, Boyaro-Lezhachi, Ikriskovshchina, Pavlovka, Bessalovka, Volfino, and Belopolye. ТАСС reports two women were injured in a Ukrainian drone attack on Guyevo, Kursk Oblast, on May 10th, despite the claimed Russian ceasefire. Colonelcassad shares photos of captured Western weaponry and drones from the Sumy direction near the Sudzha checkpoint. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian artillery shelling of numerous settlements in Sumy Oblast.
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (including Tetkino, Novy Put, Nova Pohoshch, Guyevo): Remains an area of active conflict with reported Ukrainian ground offensive attempts and intense fighting near Tetkino. ТАСС and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны report the Russian MoD claimed five attempts by Ukrainian forces to penetrate the state border in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts since May 8th. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian Bradley vehicle near Iskriskivshchina (near Tetkino) during a border penetration attempt. Два майора reports on continued Ukrainian attacks on Nova Pohoshch, Bryansk Oblast. Liveuamap source reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 25 Russian army assaults in Kursk region. ТАСС reports two women were injured in a Ukrainian drone attack on Guyevo on May 10th. Два майора reports intense Russian artillery strikes and aviation activity in the Tetkino area, targeting Ryzhevka-Tetkino, Pavlovka-Novy Put', and Iskrikovshchina-Tetkino. MoD Russia claims Ukrainian forces attempted five border breakthroughs in Kursk and Belgorod regions and launched numerous attacks in the area, all of which were repelled. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 12 Ukrainian attacks repelled in Kursk Oblast, with 4 ongoing engagements, and mentions Russian aviation strikes and significant artillery shelling.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (including Stepnohirsk, Pavlivka, Novodarivka, Malynivka, Zaliznychne, Kamianske, Temirovka, Poddubnoye, Shevchenko, Bogatyr, Tolstoy, Karla Marksa): Continues to be subjected to extensive Russian strikes. Colonelcassad lists Stepnohirsk as a target of Russian guided aerial bomb (UMPK) strikes after the ceasefire ended. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on providing significant equipment, including drones and robotic complexes, to units on the Zaporizhzhia front over the past week. РБК-Україна and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 report on Russian guided aerial bomb strikes and FPV drone attacks on Pavlivka, causing damage and civilian casualties. Liveuamap source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Novodarivka, Malynivka, and Zaliznychne. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 announces an air raid alert for communities in the oblast. MoD Russia claims to have inflicted losses on Ukrainian forces near Kamenskoye and Temirovka. Colonelcassad shares photos of an art performance in Zaporizhzhia. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs on the border of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation strikes with unguided rockets on Malynivka and Zaliznychne, and two unsuccessful enemy attacks in the area of Stepove and towards Novodanylivka as of 16:00 on May 10th. MoD Russia claims to have inflicted losses on Ukrainian forces near Poddubnoye, Shevchenko, Bogatyr, Tolstoy, and Karla Marksa.
Kharkiv Oblast (including Vovchansk, Berezniki, Mala Shapkivka, Kamyanka): Affected by ongoing drone activity and shelling. Colonelcassad lists Kharkiv Oblast as a target of Russian strikes after the ceasefire ended, utilizing a "full spectrum of means." ASTRA reports 4 people were injured in Kharkiv Oblast due to Russian attacks over the past day, with damage to civilian infrastructure in Kupiansk, Kondrashevka community, Izium district, and Bohodukhiv district. Liveuamap source reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Mala Shapkivka, and Kamyanka. Colonelcassad shares a map reflecting a correction of the control zone in Vovchansk before the ceasefire. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video claiming Ukrainian reconnaissance units are clearing an enemy position on this direction. MoD Russia claims to have inflicted losses on Ukrainian forces near Berezniki and Kupyansk. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target from Donetsk Oblast heading north towards Kharkiv Oblast.
Kyiv Oblast (including Vyshhorod, Brovary, Obukhiv): Colonelcassad lists Vyshhorod, Brovary, and Obukhiv as targets of Russian "Geran/Gerbera" strikes after the ceasefire ended. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also lists Brovary and Kyiv as targets with 3 strikes. РБК-Україна shares a video from Macron's trip to Kyiv. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) shares a Mother's Day video.
Zhytomyr Oblast (including Zhytomyr, Ozerne airfield): Colonelcassad lists Zhytomyr and Zhytomyr Oblast as targets of Russian "Geran/Gerbera" strikes after the ceasefire ended. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 lists Zhytomyr as a target with 4 strikes, with speculation on targets being the military airfield in Ozerne (where F-16s allegedly arrived) and a railway station used for military logistics.
Bryansk Oblast (Russia) (including Nova Pohoshch): Два майора reports on continued Ukrainian attacks on Nova Pohoshch, with houses burning.
Tula Oblast (Russia) ("Shcheglovsky Val" enterprise): ASTRA and КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno report the destruction of a production building at this facility on May 7th, impacting the production of Pantsir systems and other military equipment.
Moscow Oblast (Russia) ("Basalt" plant in Krasnoarmiysk, Losino-Petrovsky): ASTRA and КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno report a central workshop at this facility was hit on May 7th. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a fatal grenade incident involving a military serviceman in Losino-Petrovsky.
Kherson Oblast (Mykolayivka, Antonovka, Kherson, Ponyatovka): Colonelcassad lists Kherson Oblast as a target of Russian strikes after the ceasefire ended, utilizing a "full spectrum of means." Liveuamap source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Mykolayivka. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the transfer of two HIMARS with escorts in Mykolaiv Oblast towards Kherson. Liveuamap source reports Ukrainian forces repelled 3 Russian army assaults. MoD Russia claims to have inflicted losses on Ukrainian forces near Antonovka and Kherson. MoD Russia claims to have inflicted losses on Ukrainian forces near Ponyatovka. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports one unsuccessful enemy attack on the Dnipro direction as of 16:00 on May 10th.
Cherkasy Oblast (Kaniv): Colonelcassad lists Kaniv as a target of Russian "Geran/Gerbera" strikes after the ceasefire ended. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also lists Kaniv as a target with 1 strike.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Novopavlivka, Petropavlivka): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 lists Novopavlivka as a target of FABs and Petropavlivka as a target of a Geran drone. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV on the southwest of the oblast. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) shares a Mother's Day video. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs on the border of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
Kupyansk axis: Liveuamap source reports clashes yesterday near Kindrashivka, Synkivka and near Zahryzove. MoD Russia claims to have inflicted losses on Ukrainian forces near Kupyansk.
Siversk axis: Liveuamap source reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka and near Bilohorivka. MoD Russia claims to have inflicted losses on Ukrainian forces near Seversk.
Novopavlivka axis: Liveuamap source reports clashes yesterday near Kostyantynopil, Vilne Pole, Pryvilne and towards Bahatyry, Shevchenko, Novopil. Liveuamap source reports clashes near Novopil and Novosilka. Liveuamap source reports 13 enemy attacks repelled near Kostyantynopil, Vilne Pole, Pryvilne, Bahatyry, Shevchenko, and Novopil.
Orikhiv axis: Liveuamap source reports clashes yesterday near Stepove and towards Novodanylivka. Liveuamap source reports two enemy attacks repelled near Stepove and towards Novodanylivka.
Guliaipole axis: Liveuamap source reports clashes yesterday near Novopil and Novosilka.
Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) (Novoyegorovka, Luhansk city): MoD Russia claims Ukrainian forces launched attacks and a reconnaissance-in-force near Novoyegorovka.
Belgorod Oblast (Russia): ТАСС and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны report the Russian MoD claimed five attempts by Ukrainian forces to penetrate the state border in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts since May 8th. MoD Russia claims Ukrainian forces attempted five border breakthroughs in Kursk and Belgorod regions, all of which were repelled.
Donetsk (occupied): Mash на Донбассе shares videos and photos of a reenactment of the 2014 referendum.
Mariupol (occupied): 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України mentions a marine who fought in Mariupol.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Extensive drone activity continues on both sides. ТАСС and ASTRA report the Russian MoD claimed to have shot down 143 Ukrainian UAVs in the past day, including 58 UAVs outside the "special operation zone" since May 8th. Colonelcassad lists "Geran/Gerbera" drone strikes on multiple Ukrainian regions after the ceasefire ended. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on providing over 1100 drones to units on the Zaporizhzhia front over the past week. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of a Ukrainian FPV drone successfully targeting a Russian sniper. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian Bradley vehicle near the border after it attempted to evade a Russian FPV drone and was then finished off with kamikaze drones. РБК-Україна and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 report a subsequent FPV drone attack injuring a 56-year-old woman in Pavlivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, following KAB strikes. STERNENKO shares a video of Ukrainian forces destroying a Russian Merlin-VR thermal imaging reconnaissance UAV. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV on the southwest of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video claiming Ukrainian reconnaissance units are clearing an enemy position with drone support. ТАСС reports two women were injured in a Ukrainian drone attack on Guyevo, Kursk Oblast, on May 10th. Два майора reports Russian forces in Tetkino are repelling Ukrainian attacks with FPV drones on fiber optics. Kotsnews shares a video claiming Russian "Vega" special forces are using drones to destroy enemy armored vehicles. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video claiming destruction of a Ukrainian HMMWV with a drone. MoD Russia claims Ukrainian units carried out nearly 10,000 drone strikes and munitions drops along the line of contact. MoD Russia claims to have shot down 143 fixed-wing UAVs in the past 24 hours (with 8 outside the SMO zone). This highlights the continued use of FPV and reconnaissance drones by both sides and their impact on civilians and military assets. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video report on the acquisition of two Mavic 3 drones for paratroopers. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" is fundraising for equipment for SSO, which likely includes drones. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports Ukrainian border guards destroyed Russian vehicles, antennas, and a mortar near Vovchansk using drones. Colonelcassad shares photos of captured Ukrainian drones from the Sumy direction. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares video of Russian drone operations on the Donetsk direction. Президентська бригада ЗСУ shares video of Ukrainian drone operations on the Donetsk direction. Воин DV reports on Ukrainian and Russian drone use on the Southern Donetsk direction.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Colonelcassad lists guided aerial bomb (UMPK) strikes on Sumy and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts after the ceasefire ended. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 lists FAB strikes on Novopavlivka (Dnipropetrovsk) and Konotop (Sumy). ТАСС and ASTRA report the Russian MoD claimed to have shot down three US-made JDAM bombs. РБК-Україна and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 report on Russian guided aerial bomb strikes on Pavlivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, causing damage and civilian casualties. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation towards Donetsk Oblast. Liveuamap sources report Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Cherneve of Sumy region, Myrne, Sukhyy Yar, Piddubne, Komar — of Donetsk region, Novodarivka, Malynivka, Zaliznychne — of Zaporizhzhia region, Mykolayivka — of Kherson region. This confirms the continued and damaging use of guided aerial bombs by Russian forces across multiple regions. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs on the border of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation strikes with four guided aerial bombs in Kursk Oblast. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian aviation strikes with unguided rockets on Malynivka and Zaliznychne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Missile Activity: Colonelcassad reports RSZO/OTRK strikes on Sumy Oblast. ТАСС and ASTRA report the Russian MoD claimed to have shot down three US-made JDAM bombs. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 lists potential strikes on a railway station near Zhytomyr used for military logistics. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued a ballistic missile threat alert. ТАСС reports the Russian MoD claimed to have shot down five Neptune, six JDAM, and two HIMARS missiles/projectiles over the past day. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports threat of ballistic missile use in areas with air raid alerts. Рыбарь dismisses reports of Iran supplying Fath-360 missiles to Russia. MoD Russia claims Ukrainian units carried out 4,011 shelling attacks, including 62 with MLRS, and shot down five Neptune, six JDAM, and two HIMARS missiles/projectiles over the past 24 hours. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports rocket danger in Chernihiv Oblast. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 156 artillery shellings, including 3 from MLRS, in Kursk Oblast. Воин DV reports 156 artillery shellings, including 11 with cluster munitions, and 3 MLRS shellings by the Ukrainian side on the Southern Donetsk direction, and 43 artillery tasks conducted by Russian forces in response.
Aviation Activity: Colonelcassad reports Russian aviation resumed strikes after the ceasefire ended, utilizing a "full spectrum of means" in addition to guided bombs. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 lists FAB strikes on Novopavlivka (Dnipropetrovsk) and Konotop (Sumy) by Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS RF). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 speculates on strikes targeting the Ozerne military airfield near Zhytomyr, where F-16s allegedly arrived. Liveuamap sources report Russian aviation conducted airstrikes in Sumy, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. Fighterbomber shares a video with aviation footage, likely Russian. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on the eastern direction. Два майора reports Russian aviation activity in the Tetkino area, Kursk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target from Donetsk Oblast heading north towards Kharkiv Oblast. MoD Russia claims operational-tactical aviation, strike drones, missile troops, and artillery hit various Ukrainian targets. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports three Russian aviation strikes in Kursk Oblast and Russian aviation strikes with unguided rockets in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Naval Activity: No new significant naval activity reported in the latest messages. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports NATO reconnaissance active over the Black Sea. MoD Russia claims to have inflicted losses on a Ukrainian coastal defense brigade. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing Russian sailors marching in Norilsk during Victory Day commemorations, potentially implying a relocation of some Black Sea Fleet remnants to the Arctic. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports one unsuccessful enemy attack on the Dnipro direction (presumably related to the Dnipro River area where naval/riverine activity occurs).
Air Defense Activity: ТАСС and ASTRA report the Russian MoD claimed to have shot down three US-made JDAM bombs and 143 Ukrainian UAVs in the past day, including 58 UAVs outside the "special operation zone" since May 8th. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian Bradley vehicle and used kamikaze drones to finish it off after an FPV drone caused it to overturn near the border. ASTRA and КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno report the destruction of a facility producing Pantsir anti-aircraft systems, which could impact Russian air defense capabilities in the future. ТАСС reports Peskov stated Russian air defense is effective. STERNENKO shares a video of Ukrainian forces destroying a Russian Merlin-VR thermal imaging reconnaissance UAV, highlighting Ukrainian counter-drone effectiveness. ТАСС reports the Russian MoD claimed to have shot down five Neptune, six JDAM, and two HIMARS missiles/projectiles over the past day. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 announces an air raid alert for communities in the oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports threat of ballistic missile use in areas with air raid alerts. Два майора reports Russian forces in Tetkino are repelling Ukrainian attacks. Colonelcassad shares a photo of apparent dummy radar equipment. MoD Russia claims Russian air defense units shot down 58 fixed-wing UAVs outside the SMO zone since May 8th and a total of 143 fixed-wing UAVs in the past 24 hours (with 8 outside the SMO zone), and also shot down three US-made JDAM aerial bombs and five Neptune, six JDAM, and two HIMARS missiles/projectiles. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports rocket danger in Chernihiv Oblast.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Ceasefire Discussions: A significant diplomatic initiative for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire starting May 12th has been put forward by Ukraine and key European leaders, including a joint call with Donald Trump. РБК-Україна shares Yermak's statement emphasizing that a 30-day ceasefire is the first step and Russia should not mask its desire to continue the war. STERNENKO and Оперативний ЗСУ share Macron's tweet confirming the joint proposal with Trump and Zelensky's unconditional commitment, stating that negotiations require a ceasefire. Russian officials and military bloggers have reacted negatively and dismissively to the proposal. Alex Parker Returns, НгП раZVедка, Kotsnews, ТАСС (citing Slutsky and Peskov), Военкор Котенок, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, and WarGonzo all interpret the proposal as unfavorable to Russia and a tactic by Ukraine/West, while portraying Russia's counter-proposal for talks in Istanbul as genuine and strategic. Colonelcassad interprets Ushakov's statement (from previous reporting) as indicating Russia seeks a peace based on "realities on the ground" and the 2022 Istanbul talks, implying recognition of the loss of four Ukrainian regions. ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova stated Kyiv "poorly read" the transcript of Putin's statement on negotiations and that Putin clearly stated first talks on root causes, then a ceasefire. ТАСС reports Peskov considered Zelensky's words on inability to guarantee safety to leaders in Moscow as "state terrorism." ТАСС reports Karin Kneissl viewed Putin's proposal as a concession reflecting true diplomacy. Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reiterate Zakharova's statement about Russia's condition of first addressing root causes before a ceasefire. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) frames the situation as Western Europe pushing for continued war while Russia offers immediate peace talks in Istanbul. Два майора analyzes Putin's proposal as a response to the Western ultimatum, emphasizing Russia's willingness to talk but not to halt combat on Western terms, and reiterating the condition of accounting for "realities on the ground." Старше Эдды similarly interprets Putin's statement as a counter-proposal to the ceasefire ultimatum. MoD Russia claims Ukrainian forces violated the ceasefire regime over 14,000 times, while Russian forces strictly observed it, implying Ukraine is not serious about a ceasefire. ТАСС reports Pope Leo XIV called for peace in Ukraine and a ceasefire in Gaza. ТАСС and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны report that Turkish President Erdoğan stated Turkey is ready to contribute to ensuring a ceasefire and lasting peace in Ukraine, including organizing negotiations. Colonelcassad interprets Erdoğan's statement as a signal that Turkey is ready to host the proposed negotiations on May 15th. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС expresses skepticism regarding the potential for a ceasefire, arguing that Russia will only stop when militarily constrained.
Ukraine-International Relations: Ukrainian leaders and European leaders, including those from France, Germany, UK, and Poland, participated in a joint call with Donald Trump to discuss peace efforts. This highlights continued high-level international engagement. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 is reporting on military aid received and distributed. Олександр Вілкул is engaging in veteran support initiatives. РБК-Україна reports on Macron's statement regarding the potential deployment of several thousand foreign troops to Ukraine as a second line of defense. РБК-Україна shares a video from Macron's trip to Kyiv. Zelenskiy / Official shares a Mother's Day video. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a Mother's Day video from the State Special Transport Service. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) shares a Mother's Day video. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" is fundraising for equipment for SSO, offering signed items from high-ranking military figures.
Russia-International Relations: Russian officials are emphasizing their proposal for talks in Istanbul and interpreting the Western ceasefire proposal negatively. Басурин о главном is promoting historical narratives linking Western countries to negative ideologies. ТАСС reports that Peskov stated Putin's proposal for talks is serious. ТАСС reports Leonid Slutsky views Putin's proposal as a strategic success. ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova stated Kyiv "poorly read" Putin's proposal and that Putin's sequencing is clear. ТАСС reports Peskov's comment on Zelensky's "state terrorism" regarding leader safety. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports NATO reconnaissance active over the Black Sea. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) promotes a narrative of Western aggression and Russian peace offers, and shares an image mocking Zelensky. Рыбарь dismisses reports of Iran supplying Fath-360 missiles to Russia as likely untrue. MoD Russia reports on the progress of the "special military operation" and claims to have inflicted significant losses on Ukrainian forces. ТАСС reports Pope Leo XIV called for peace in Ukraine and a ceasefire in Gaza. ТАСС and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны report that Turkish President Erdoğan stated Turkey is ready to contribute to ensuring a ceasefire and lasting peace in Ukraine, including organizing negotiations. Colonelcassad interprets Erdoğan's statement as a signal that Turkey is ready to host the proposed negotiations on May 15th.
India-Pakistan Conflict: A US-mediated full and immediate ceasefire has been announced and confirmed by both sides, with plans for broader negotiations on neutral territory.
Information Operations: Both sides continue extensive information operations surrounding the ceasefire discussions and military activities. Russian sources are portraying Ukraine as the aggressor violating the ceasefire and framing the Western ceasefire proposal as a tactic for rearmament. They are promoting their own proposal for talks in Istanbul as genuine and strategic. Historical narratives are being used to support political messaging. Ukrainian sources are highlighting Russian strikes during the claimed ceasefire and emphasizing their readiness for talks if a ceasefire is confirmed. Басурин о главном's historical piece on British influence on Nazism is a clear information operation. Kotsnews's "Putin's signature judo" commentary frames the diplomatic situation favorably for Russia. ТАСС reporting on Russian MoD claims of massive Ukrainian violations and border incursions is likely part of an information operation. ТАСС reporting on Miroshnik's statement (from previous reports) about Ukrainian rearmament is an information operation tactic. Alex Parker Returns uses dismissive language and conspiracy narratives. WarGonzo frames Putin's proposal as a strategic initiative. НгП раZVедка uses crude language and promotes negative narratives about Ukraine. ТАСС reporting on Peskov's and Slutsky's statements supports the official Russian narrative. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА frames Putin's proposal as strategic and the Western proposal as a resupply tactic. Fighterbomber announces a program to discuss the ceasefire, Victory Day, and negotiations, framing it as a response to Putin's statement and using military slang. This indicates Russian media is actively engaging with the diplomatic developments to shape the narrative. Басурин о главном reiterates Zakharova's statement that Kyiv "poorly read" Putin's proposal. ТАСС reports Zakharova's statement on Putin's clear sequencing for talks. ТАСС reports Peskov's comment on Zelensky's "state terrorism" regarding leader safety. Colonelcassad shares a photo of apparent dummy radar equipment, likely for propaganda purposes related to countering Western military aid. Басурин о главном promotes an interview discussing a potential peace settlement. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/TIEDOTTEЕТ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) promotes a narrative of Western aggression and Russian peace offers, and shares an image mocking Zelensky. Рыбарь dismisses reports of Iran supplying Fath-360 missiles to Russia as hype. Два майора provides a summary of Putin's statements on negotiations, framing it as a response to the Western ultimatum and emphasizing that peace requires accounting for "realities on the ground." Старше Эдды echoes this interpretation of Putin's proposal as a counter-offer to the ceasefire ultimatum. «Зона СВО» shares a video with derogatory language and claims highlighting alleged mistreatment of Russian speakers by Ukrainians and the supposed invincibility of Russian forces. Mash на Донбассе shares videos and photos of a reenactment of the 2014 referendum in Donetsk, promoting the narrative of popular support for the DPR and highlighting Russian media presence. Народная милиция ДНР shares a video claiming successful destruction of a Ukrainian temporary deployment point, aiming to showcase Russian military effectiveness. MoD Russia reports on the progress of the "special military operation" and claims to have inflicted significant losses on Ukrainian forces, part of their information campaign. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video attempting to portray European leaders in a negative light, likely using misleading imagery.
Internal Ukrainian Politics: Ukrainian officials are engaging in high-level international diplomacy regarding a potential ceasefire. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 is reporting on military aid received and distributed. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ and 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України are focusing on personnel stories and unit activities to boost morale and encourage recruitment/support. Олександр Вілкул is engaging in veteran support initiatives. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is fundraising for a military unit. Zelenskiy / Official, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), and 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) share Mother's Day videos. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a Mother's Day video from the State Special Transport Service. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" is fundraising for equipment for SSO.
Internal Russian Issues: Новости Москвы reports on many people complaining about cold in their apartments, highlighting potential issues with utility services. This could be an internal socio-political issue. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video reportedly of a Russian servicemember discussing post-war racketeering and violence by returning soldiers ("SVOshniks") who are unwilling to work for low wages and plan to extort businessmen, threatening violence against them and their families. This raises significant concerns about the potential for increased crime and social instability in Russia due to the return of veterans from the conflict. Colonelcassad shares a photo of dummy military equipment, potentially indicating internal efforts to deceive. (Interpretation based on shared context). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a fatal grenade incident involving a military serviceman in Losino-Petrovsky, Moscow Oblast.
Ukraine-US Relations: Donald Trump participated in a joint call with Ukrainian and European leaders regarding peace efforts. ТАСС and ASTRA report the Russian MoD claimed to have shot down three US-made JDAM bombs, highlighting the presence of US military aid in the conflict. The US mediated a ceasefire in the India-Pakistan conflict.
Russia-Turkey Relations: Russia is proposing to resume peace talks in Istanbul. ТАСС and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны report that Turkish President Erdoğan stated Turkey is ready to contribute to ensuring a ceasefire and lasting peace in Ukraine, including organizing negotiations. Colonelcassad interprets Erdoğan's statement as a signal that Turkey is ready to host the proposed negotiations on May 15th.
India-Pakistan Conflict: A US-mediated full and immediate ceasefire has been announced and confirmed by both sides, with plans for broader negotiations on neutral territory.

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security: ТАСС and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны report the Russian MoD claimed five attempts by Ukrainian forces to penetrate the state border in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts since May 8th, indicating ongoing cross-border security concerns. Два майора reports on continued Ukrainian attacks on Nova Pohoshch, Bryansk Oblast, with houses burning and impacting civilian areas near the border. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video reportedly of a Russian servicemember discussing potential post-war racketeering and violence by returning soldiers, raising significant concerns about future internal security and crime related to veterans. Новости Москвы reports on scammers impersonating former employers to access "Gosuslugi" accounts (from previous reporting), highlighting ongoing internal security concerns and criminal activity. ТАСС reports Peskov considered Zelensky's words on inability to guarantee safety to leaders in Moscow as "state terrorism," highlighting security concerns around high-profile events. ТАСС reports two women were injured in a Ukrainian drone attack on the village of Guyevo, Kursk Oblast, on May 10th. Два майора reports Russian forces in Tetkino are repelling Ukrainian attacks. MoD Russia claims Ukrainian forces attempted five border breakthroughs in Kursk and Belgorod regions and launched numerous attacks in the area, all of which were repelled. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a fatal grenade incident involving a military serviceman in Losino-Petrovsky, Moscow Oblast.
Military Performance and Capabilities: ТАСС and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны report the Russian MoD claimed to have repelled numerous Ukrainian attacks and inflicted losses, and shot down numerous UAVs and JDAM bombs. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian Bradley vehicle near the border using FPV and kamikaze drones. Colonelcassad reports Russian forces resumed strikes across multiple regions after the ceasefire, using a "full spectrum of means," including guided aerial bombs and drones. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 provides details on Russian strikes, including FAB and Geran use, and speculated targets. ASTRA and КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno report the destruction of a key Russian military production facility ("Shcheglovsky Val") on May 7th, impacting the production of Pantsir systems, combat modules, and anti-tank missiles, and a central workshop at the "Basalt" plant. This is a significant blow to Russian military production capacity. STERNENKO shares a video of Ukrainian forces destroying a Russian Merlin-VR thermal imaging reconnaissance UAV, indicating successful Ukrainian efforts against Russian reconnaissance assets. Colonelcassad shares a map reflecting claimed Russian advances on multiple fronts before the ceasefire. ТАСС reports the Russian MoD claimed to have shot down five Neptune, six JDAM, and two HIMARS missiles/projectiles over the past day. ТАСС reports Peskov stated Russian air defense is effective. Два майора reports intense Russian artillery strikes and aviation activity in the Tetkino area. Kotsnews shares a video claiming Russian "Vega" special forces are destroying enemy armored vehicles on the Pokrovsk direction. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video claiming destruction of a Ukrainian HMMWV. MoD Russia reports inflicting significant losses on Ukrainian forces across multiple regions and destroying various types of Ukrainian equipment. Народная милиция ДНР shares a video claiming successful destruction of a Ukrainian temporary deployment point. Colonelcassad shares a photo of apparent dummy radar equipment, potentially indicating efforts to counter Ukrainian targeting. Военкор Котенок reports Russian advances on the Krasnolimansky direction and successful capture of an enemy stronghold. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 analyzes an unsuccessful Ukrainian counterattack in Toretsk, highlighting tactical errors. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС expresses skepticism about Russia stopping without being militarily constrained. MoD Russia provides a detailed operational summary for May 11th, claiming adherence to ceasefire and reporting Ukrainian violations and losses. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares video of Russian drone operations on the Donetsk direction. Президентська бригада ЗСУ shares video of Ukrainian drone operations on the Donetsk direction. Воин DV reports on Russian artillery and drone use on the Southern Donetsk direction, claiming Russian superiority.
Civilian Impact: Два майора reports on continued Ukrainian attacks on Nova Pohoshch, Bryansk Oblast, with houses burning, highlighting the impact of cross-border shelling on civilians in Russia. Новости Москвы reports on civilian complaints about cold apartments, indicating potential issues with utility services. ТАСС reports two women were injured in a Ukrainian drone attack on the village of Guyevo, Kursk Oblast, on May 10th.
Information Control and Propaganda: Russian state media and military bloggers are actively engaged in information operations to control the narrative around the ceasefire discussions and military activities. Claims of massive Ukrainian violations, portraying the Western proposal negatively, and promoting their own proposal as genuine are key elements. Historical narratives are being used for political messaging. Басурин о главном's historical piece is a clear example of propaganda. Kotsnews, Alex Parker Returns, НгП раZVедка, ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, and WarGonzo are all contributing to the Russian information space with specific narratives and interpretations of events. Басурин о главном reiterates Zakharova's statement that Kyiv "poorly read" Putin's proposal. ТАСС reports Zakharova's statement on Putin's clear sequencing for talks. ТАСС reports Peskov's comment on Zelensky's "state terrorism" regarding leader safety. Colonelcassad shares a photo of apparent dummy radar equipment. Басурин о главном promotes an interview discussing a potential peace settlement. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/TIEDOTТЕЕТ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) promotes a narrative of Western aggression and Russian peace offers, and shares an image mocking Zelensky. Рыбарь dismisses reports of Iran supplying Fath-360 missiles to Russia as hype. Два майора provides a summary of Putin's statements on negotiations, framing it as a response to the Western ultimatum and emphasizing that peace requires accounting for "realities on the ground." Старше Эдды echoes this interpretation of Putin's proposal as a counter-offer to the ceasefire ultimatum. «Зона СВО» shares a video with derogatory language and claims highlighting alleged mistreatment of Russian speakers by Ukrainians and the supposed invincibility of Russian forces. Mash на Донбассе shares videos and photos of a reenactment of the 2014 referendum in Donetsk, promoting the narrative of popular support for the DPR and highlighting Russian media presence. Народная милиция ДНР shares a video claiming successful destruction of a Ukrainian temporary deployment point, aiming to showcase Russian military effectiveness. MoD Russia reports on the progress of the "special military operation" and claims to have inflicted significant losses on Ukrainian forces, part of their information campaign. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video attempting to portray European leaders in a negative light.
Socio-Political Issues: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video raising concerns about potential post-war crime and social instability due to returning veterans. Новости Москвы reports on civilian complaints about cold apartments.
Logistical Challenges: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is fundraising for vehicles for a unit operating near Pokrovsk, highlighting continued need for logistical support for frontline units. This can also be interpreted as an internal Russian issue if official supply chains are insufficient. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video reporting on the acquisition of Mavic 3 drones through fundraising, further indicating reliance on non-governmental support.

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Military Support (Ukraine): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on providing over 81 million UAH worth of equipment to units on the Zaporizhzhia front, including drones and robotic complexes. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is fundraising for vehicles for a unit operating near Pokrovsk. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the transfer of two HIMARS with escorts in Mykolaiv Oblast towards Kherson, indicating potential reinforcement. This highlights ongoing efforts to equip and support Ukrainian forces. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" is fundraising for equipment for SSO.
Veteran Support (Ukraine): Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares a story about a wounded veteran retraining, highlighting support for returning soldiers. Олександр Вілкул reports on meeting with a Hero of Ukraine to discuss veteran policy, indicating efforts to address the needs of veterans.
Military Morale and Commemoration (Ukraine): Генеральний штаб ЗСУ and 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України are sharing stories and reports to inform the public and boost morale. Zelenskiy / Official, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), Оперативний ЗСУ, and 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) share Mother's Day videos.
Support for Civilians (Ukraine): РБК-Україна and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 report on Russian guided aerial bomb strikes and FPV drone attacks on Pavlivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, causing damage and civilian casualties. This highlights the ongoing impact of Russian attacks on civilians. ASTRA reports on civilian casualties and damage in Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on a healthy food campaign and the creation of a culinary hub for school meals, highlighting efforts to support civilian well-being and infrastructure.
Internal Support (Russia): No new significant updates in the latest messages directly related to organized support or rehabilitation programs, although fundraising efforts by military bloggers (mentioned in previous reports) continue. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's video about potential post-war crime by veterans implicitly suggests a lack of adequate support or reintegration programs for returning soldiers. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video report on the acquisition of Mavic 3 drones through fundraising, highlighting community support for military units.
Civilian Support (Russia): Два майора reports on houses burning in Nova Pohoshch due to Ukrainian attacks, highlighting the impact on civilians in border regions. Новости Москвы reports on civilian complaints about cold apartments. ТАСС reports two women were injured in a Ukrainian drone attack on the village of Guyevo, Kursk Oblast, on May 10th.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Russia: Continues offensive operations and significant aerial strikes across multiple fronts, including border regions. Utilizing a range of assets including guided aerial bombs (UMPK, FABs), "Geran/Gerbera" drones, FPV drones, artillery, and MLRS/OTRK. Claiming high numbers of Ukrainian ceasefire violations and successful repulsion of border penetration attempts. Conducting extensive information operations to control the narrative. Experiencing losses of military production capacity due to Ukrainian deep strikes (Basalt plant, Shcheglovsky Val). Facing ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks and potential cross-border activity. Reports of tactical advances in Donetsk Oblast (previous reports). Resumed widespread strikes after the claimed ceasefire ended. Using guided aerial bombs and drones on multiple regions. Claiming massive Ukrainian ceasefire violations and border incursions. Utilizing FPV and kamikaze drones near the border. Potentially facing issues with utility services in some civilian areas (complaints about cold). Facing a significant setback in military production capacity due to the strike on the Shcheglovsky Val and Basalt plants. Engaging in active ground combat across multiple axes in Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts. Utilizing Merlin-VR reconnaissance drones. Transferring HIMARS to the Kherson direction (reported by Ukrainian source). Utilizing intense artillery strikes in the Tetkino area, Kursk Oblast. Conducting aviation activity in the Tetkino area. Using dummy radar equipment (potentially for deception). Russian "Vega" special forces are reportedly destroying enemy armored vehicles on the Pokrovsk direction. The 150th Motorized Rifle Division is reportedly destroying Ukrainian temporary deployment points. Utilizing derogatory language and propaganda. Военкор Котенок reports Russian advances on the Krasnolimansky direction, including capturing an enemy stronghold and advancing on several settlements. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 analyzes an unsuccessful Ukrainian counterattack in Toretsk, highlighting tactical errors including the use of a large mechanized column in open terrain and insufficient support. MoD Russia provides a detailed operational summary for May 11th, claiming adherence to ceasefire and reporting Ukrainian violations and losses of personnel and equipment across various sectors. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares video of Russian drone operations on the Donetsk direction, and claiming destruction of a Ukrainian HMMWV. Президентська бригада ЗСУ shares video of Ukrainian drone operations on the Donetsk direction. Воин DV reports on Russian artillery and drone use on the Southern Donetsk direction, claiming Russian superiority.
Ukraine: Maintaining defensive positions while conducting limited offensive actions and cross-border operations (reported by Russian sources). Actively countering Russian aerial and drone attacks with air defense and electronic warfare. Utilizing FPV drones for tactical engagements. Conducting deep strikes against Russian military infrastructure (Basalt plant, Shcheglovsky Val). Enhancing military capabilities through initiatives like the "Brave1 Market" and acquiring modern equipment (drones, robotic systems, HIMARS). Focusing on personnel support, veteran care, and recruitment. Publicly proposing a conditional ceasefire for negotiations. Facing continued Russian strikes on civilian areas. Engaged Russian forces near the border, including reportedly destroying a Bradley vehicle. Using FPV drones for tactical engagements. Successfully struck key Russian military production facilities. Acquiring significant amounts of drones and robotic complexes for the Zaporizhzhia front. Promoting veteran support and recruitment initiatives. Calling for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire. Engaging in active ground combat across multiple axes in Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts, repelling numerous attacks. Utilizing UAVs for targeting (as seen in the sniper strike video). Successfully destroying Russian reconnaissance UAVs (Merlin-VR). Receiving HIMARS on the Kherson direction. Ukrainian reconnaissance units are reportedly clearing enemy positions on the Kharkiv direction. Ukrainian forces have repelled numerous Russian assaults in Kursk region. Ukrainian forces are conducting engineering works near Ryzhevka forest, Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian forces are conducting artillery strikes in the Tetkino area, Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian forces have repelled Russian assaults on the Kherson axis. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 analyzes an unsuccessful Ukrainian counterattack in Toretsk, highlighting tactical errors and losses. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is fundraising for vehicles for a unit operating near Pokrovsk. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" is fundraising for equipment for SSO. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports Ukrainian border guards destroyed Russian vehicles, antennas, and a mortar near Vovchansk using drones, showcasing Ukrainian tactical actions. Президентська бригада ЗСУ shares video of Ukrainian drone operations on the Donetsk direction, showcasing their effectiveness. Воин DV reports on Ukrainian artillery and drone use on the Southern Donetsk direction.

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The successful Ukrainian deep strike on the "Shcheglovsky Val" enterprise and "Basalt" plant is a significant strategic development. The destruction of facilities producing Pantsir systems and other key military equipment directly impacts Russia's defense capabilities and war effort. This demonstrates Ukraine's ability to strike high-value targets deep within Russia and could influence Russia's strategic planning and resource allocation, potentially forcing them to rely more on existing stockpiles or seek alternative sources for these critical systems.
The immediate and widespread resumption of Russian strikes across multiple Ukrainian regions following the declared ceasefire, coupled with their dismissive reaction to the Western ceasefire proposal, strongly indicates that Russia is currently prioritizing military pressure and territorial gains over genuine de-escalation or negotiations based on Ukraine's proposed terms. Their actions on the ground directly contradict their rhetorical claims of observing a ceasefire. The differing interpretations of the ceasefire proposal and the sequencing of talks (Ukraine: ceasefire then talks; Russia: root causes then ceasefire) highlight a fundamental disconnect in their approaches. Russia's proposal for talks in Istanbul, framed by them as genuine, appears to be a counter-offer aimed at achieving a settlement on their terms, likely based on the current "realities on the ground." БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's skepticism regarding a ceasefire and emphasis on military strength from a Ukrainian perspective reinforces the strategic reality that de-escalation is unlikely without a significant shift in the military balance or political will.
The diplomatic exchange surrounding the ceasefire proposal highlights a clear divergence in approaches to ending the conflict. Ukraine and its Western partners are seeking a cessation of hostilities as a precondition for talks, while Russia appears to be using the offer of negotiations as a tool to legitimize its territorial gains ("realities on the ground") and potentially impose terms based on the unfavorable (for Ukraine) 2022 Istanbul framework. The Russian information operations surrounding this further reinforce their stance and aim to shift blame for the lack of peace onto Ukraine and the West. Turkey's reiteration of its readiness to host negotiations, while positive for facilitating dialogue, is contingent on the willingness of both sides to genuinely engage, which is currently in doubt based on Russian reactions.
The ongoing reports of civilian casualties and damage in both Ukraine (from Russian strikes) and Russia (from Ukrainian cross-border attacks) underscore the devastating human cost of the conflict and the challenges in protecting civilian populations in active combat zones and border regions. The FPV drone attack injuring a civilian in Pavlivka, Zaporizhzhia, highlights the expanding threat of these tactical drones to non-combatants. The report of two women injured in a Ukrainian drone attack in Kursk Oblast, despite the claimed Russian ceasefire, further illustrates the human cost in border areas.
The concerns raised by a Russian military blogger about potential post-war crime and social instability by returning veterans ("SVOshniks") who may engage in racketeering and violence are highly significant. This suggests potential long-term societal impacts of the conflict within Russia and could pose a future internal security challenge, potentially diverting resources or impacting public order. The fatal grenade incident involving a military serviceman in Moscow Oblast could be a manifestation of these underlying issues.
Ukraine's continued efforts to acquire modern military equipment, particularly drones and robotic complexes, and streamline procurement through initiatives like the "Brave1 Market" demonstrate a strategic focus on leveraging technology and improving logistics to enhance their military effectiveness and adaptability in a protracted conflict. This could provide Ukraine with a crucial advantage in certain tactical areas. The reported transfer of HIMARS to the Kherson direction indicates a focus on bolstering capabilities on that front. The fundraising efforts by Ukrainian military bloggers and units for specific equipment further highlight these ongoing needs and the importance of non-governmental support.
The reported Ukrainian attempts at border penetration in the Kursk/Sumy region and the engagement with a Bradley vehicle near the border suggest a potential continuation of limited cross-border operations aimed at creating pressure on Russian territory, diverting Russian resources, or achieving tactical objectives in those areas. The intense fighting and engineering works reported in the Kursk/Sumy border region underscore its continued strategic importance.
The continued Russian information operations, including the use of historical narratives to link Western support for Ukraine to negative ideologies and portraying Ukraine as the aggressor, remain a critical component of the conflict. Countering these narratives effectively is essential for maintaining international support for Ukraine and influencing public opinion.
The reported statements from Macron regarding the potential deployment of several thousand foreign troops to Ukraine as a second line of defense, if realized, would represent a significant escalation and a new strategic dimension to the conflict, potentially impacting Russia's military calculations and the overall geopolitical landscape.
The ongoing intense ground combat across multiple axes in Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts, as reported by the Ukrainian General Staff and reflected in claimed Russian advances, indicates that territorial control in the east remains a primary strategic objective for both sides. The high number of attacks and counterattacks highlight the contested nature of these fronts. Военкор Котенок's report of Russian advances on the Krasnolimansky direction indicates ongoing tactical successes for Russian forces in this area. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦's analysis of the unsuccessful Ukrainian counterattack in Toretsk provides valuable strategic lessons learned for Ukrainian forces regarding planning and tactics in offensive operations.
The reported high number of claimed Russian ceasefire violations by the Russian MoD, while likely inflated for propaganda, highlights the difficulty in establishing and maintaining a genuine ceasefire without a political agreement and a shared understanding of terms. It also serves as a justification for Russia's continued military actions.
The de-escalation of the India-Pakistan conflict, mediated by the US, is a positive development for regional stability and could potentially free up international attention and resources, although its direct impact on the conflict in Ukraine is likely limited.
The fundraising efforts by Russian military bloggers for specific equipment, as seen in the report about acquiring Mavic 3 drones, highlights a continued reliance on non-governmental support for certain needs within the Russian military, which could indicate logistical challenges.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report