Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 11, 2025, 09:46 UTC)
Updated Situation
The operational environment continues to be defined by intense ground combat across key axes, notably in eastern and southern Ukraine, and the persistent fighting in the Kursk border region. Russian forces maintain significant aerial and drone activity, utilizing guided aerial bombs and a high volume of FPV drone and artillery strikes. Diplomatic discussions around a potential ceasefire continue, with a joint proposal from Ukrainian and European leaders, including Donald Trump, for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire starting May 12th. This proposal has been met with negative and dismissive reactions from Russian officials, indicating a low probability of immediate de-escalation on these terms. Russian sources are portraying Ukraine as the aggressor and claiming significant ceasefire violations. Ukraine has reported a successful deep strike on a Russian military production facility (Basalt plant in Moscow Oblast), with new information clarifying the location as Tula Oblast (Shcheglovsky Val enterprise), impacting production of air defense systems and other military equipment. Ukraine is also actively enhancing its military capabilities through initiatives like the "Brave1 Market," aimed at streamlining procurement and incentivizing unit effectiveness. The escalated India-Pakistan conflict remains a separate but notable regional development.
Key updates from the latest messages include:
Confirmed Ukrainian Deep Strike on Russian Military Production Facility:ASTRA and КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno report that a production building at the "Shcheglovsky Val" enterprise in Tula Oblast was destroyed on May 7th as a result of a Ukrainian attack. This facility is a key producer of Pantsir-S and Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile systems, as well as "Bakhcha-U" and "Berezhok" combat modules and "Kornet-EM" anti-tank missile systems. This is a significant strategic success for Ukraine, directly impacting Russia's ability to produce critical air defense and anti-tank systems. The strike also reportedly affected a central workshop at the "Basalt" plant in Moscow Oblast.
Continued Russian Aerial and Artillery Strikes:Colonelcassad provides a chronology of Russian strikes on Ukrainian territory on May 11th after the declared ceasefire ended. Targets listed include locations in Donetsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Kyiv, Cherkasy, and Zhytomyr Oblasts, utilizing a "full spectrum of means," specifically mentioning guided aerial bombs (UMPK) and "Geran/Gerbera" drones, as well as MLRS/OTRK. Specific locations mentioned include Dobropillya and Kramatorsk (Donetsk), Bilopillya and Vorozhba (Sumy), Stepnohirsk (Zaporizhzhia), Vyshhorod, Brovary, and Obukhiv (Kyiv), Kaniv (Cherkasy), and Zhytomyr/Ozerne airfield (Zhytomyr). This confirms the immediate resumption of significant Russian strikes across multiple regions following the ceasefire period. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 provides a similar list of strikes, adding Novopavlivka and Petropavlivka (Dnipropetrovsk) as targets of FABs and Geran drones, Konotop (Sumy) for FABs targeting foreign personnel, and speculating on strikes near Zhytomyr targeting an airfield and railway station used for military logistics.РБК-Україна and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 report on Russian guided aerial bomb strikes on Pavlivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, causing damage to residential buildings and severely injuring a 75-year-old woman, and a subsequent FPV drone attack injuring a 56-year-old woman in the same village. This underscores the continued use of devastating guided bombs and the impact on civilians. Два майора reports on continued Ukrainian attacks on Nova Pohoshch, Bryansk Oblast, with houses burning, highlighting ongoing cross-border shelling impacting civilian areas in Russia.Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation towards Donetsk Oblast.
Russian Claims of Massive Ukrainian Ceasefire Violations and Border Incursions:ТАСС and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны report that the Russian Ministry of Defense claims Ukrainian forces violated the ceasefire regime 14,043 times and attempted five penetrations through the state border in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts since May 8th. They also claim to have shot down three US-made JDAM bombs and 143 Ukrainian UAVs in the past day. These figures are likely inflated and part of a Russian information operation to portray Ukraine as the aggressor during the claimed ceasefire period and justify the resumption of their own military actions. Военкор Котенок reiterates the MoD claim of 14,043 ceasefire violations.ТАСС reports that the MoD stated Russian forces mirrored Ukrainian violations and acted according to the situation, while strictly observing the ceasefire themselves.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны provides a summary of these Russian MoD claims.
Ukrainian Deep Strikes and Cross-Border Activity:Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming Russian forces destroyed a US-made Bradley fighting vehicle near Iskriskivshchina, Sumy Oblast (near Tetkino), stating it was attempting to break through the Russian border. This suggests continued Ukrainian attempts at cross-border operations, particularly in the Kursk/Sumy border region. Два майора reports on continued Ukrainian attacks on Nova Pohoshch, Bryansk Oblast.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of a Ukrainian FPV drone successfully targeting a Russian sniper on a tree, highlighting the tactical use of drones against specific personnel.STERNENKO shares a video of Ukrainian forces of the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade destroying a Russian Merlin-VR thermal imaging reconnaissance UAV, highlighting successful counter-drone operations.
Diplomatic Stalemate on Ceasefire Proposal:A significant diplomatic initiative for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire starting May 12th has been put forward by Ukraine and key European leaders, including a joint call with Donald Trump.РБК-Україна shares Yermak's statement emphasizing that a 30-day ceasefire is the first step and Russia should not mask its desire to continue the war.STERNENKO and Оперативний ЗСУ share Macron's tweet confirming the joint proposal with Trump and Zelensky's unconditional commitment, stating that negotiations require a ceasefire.Russian officials and military bloggers have reacted negatively and dismissively to the proposal.Alex Parker Returns, НгП раZVедка, Kotsnews, ТАСС (citing Slutsky and Peskov), Военкор Котенок, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, and WarGonzo all interpret the proposal as unfavorable to Russia and a tactic by Ukraine/West, while portraying Russia's counter-proposal for talks in Istanbul as genuine and strategic.Colonelcassad interprets Ushakov's statement (from previous reporting) as indicating Russia seeks a peace based on "realities on the ground" and the 2022 Istanbul talks, implying recognition of the loss of four Ukrainian regions.ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova stated Kyiv "poorly read" the transcript of Putin's statement on negotiations and that Putin clearly stated first talks on root causes, then a ceasefire.ТАСС reports Peskov considered Zelensky's words on inability to guarantee safety to leaders in Moscow as "state terrorism."ТАСС reports Karin Kneissl viewed Putin's proposal as a concession reflecting true diplomacy.
Ground Combat Updates:Liveuamap sources, citing the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, provide updates on clashes across multiple axes:
Kharkiv axis: Clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Mala Shapkivka, and Kamyanka.
Kupyansk axis: Clashes yesterday near Kindrashivka, Synkivka, and near Zahryzove.
Lyman axis: Eight enemy attacks and attempts to advance yesterday near Cherneschyna, Olhivka, Ridkodub, Nove, Zelena Dolyna and near Yampilivka and Kopanky.
Siversk axis: Four enemy attacks repelled yesterday near Hryhorivka and near Bilohorivka.
Kramatorsk axis: Nine combat engagements recorded yesterday near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Chasiv Yar and towards Bila Hora, Mayske and Predtechyne.
Toretsk axis: Twelve attacks yesterday near Druzhba, Toretsk, Scherbynivka and towards Dyliyivka.
Pokrovsk axis: Clashes yesterday near Nova Poltavka, Myrolubivka, Kotlyarivka, Myrne, Zorya and near towns Malynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Dachenske, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Novoserhiyivka, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Preobrazhenka, andriyivka.
Novopavlivka axis: Clashes yesterday near Kostyantynopil, Vilne Pole, Pryvilne and towards Bahatyry, Shevchenko, Novopil.
Colonelcassad shares a map reflecting Russian advances on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Vovchansk directions and correction of control zones near Andriivka and Novoserhiivka before the ceasefire.Воин DV claims discovery of materials indicating low morale among Ukrainian forces during clearing operations in the southern part of Bogatyr.
Ukraine Focusing on Military Logistics and Personnel Support:🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on providing over 81 million UAH worth of equipment to 29 units on the Zaporizhzhia front over the past week. The list includes over 1100 drones (FPV, DJI, Matrice, Mavic), 20 UAV complexes, 11,800 remote mining means, building materials, ground stations, communication/power supplies, buggies, and robotic complexes. This highlights a significant and ongoing effort to equip Ukrainian forces, particularly with modern drone and robotic capabilities. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares the story of a 21-year-old marine ("Contrastnyi") who joined at 18, fought in Mariupol, was wounded, and is now retraining as a dog handler in the logistics forces. This human-interest story aims to boost morale and highlight the resilience and continued service of Ukrainian military personnel. Олександр Вілкул reports on meeting with Serhii "Volyna" Volynskyi, a defender of Mariupol and Hero of Ukraine, in Kryvyi Rih to discuss veteran policy and support for military units. This indicates ongoing efforts to support veterans and connect them with the community. 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України provides a report on their combat work from May 4th to 10th, highlighting effective operations and providing links for recruitment and support. This communication effort aims to inform the public about the brigade's activities and encourage support. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is fundraising for vehicles for the 1st separate assault regiment "Da Vinci" operating near Pokrovsk, highlighting continued need for logistical support for frontline units.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the transfer of two HIMARS with escorts in Mykolaiv Oblast towards Kherson, indicating potential preparation for operations on that front.
Russian Information Operations and Internal Messaging:Басурин о главном shares a historical piece claiming British influence on Hitler and Nazism, drawing parallels to current British policy towards Ukraine, aiming to link current Western support for Ukraine to historical negative narratives.Kotsnews comments on Putin's proposal for talks as "Putin's signature judo," claiming he used the opponent's strength (the ceasefire ultimatum) to put them on the defensive and arguing that previous ceasefires were sabotaged by Ukraine for rearmament, and that the "real situation" on the ground dictates the terms of future talks.ТАСС reports that Miroshnik stated Zelensky is calling for a ceasefire to begin rearmament. This is a recurring Russian information operation tactic. Alex Parker Returns uses dismissive and derogatory language towards Ukraine ("Khokhly") and refers to "globalists" attempting to disrupt peace, reflecting a conspiracy-minded narrative.WarGonzo analyzes Putin's peace initiative, framing it as taking the initiative on Russia's terms, aimed at excluding the West from negotiations and rendering previous peace plans irrelevant. He suggests the effectiveness of negotiations depends on the situation on the front. НгП раZVедка uses crude language ("Kyiv bastards and Euro-roosters") to dismiss the ceasefire proposal and predicts the mobilization of women in Ukraine.ТАСС reports that Peskov stated Putin's proposal for talks is serious and confirms a real intention for peace.ТАСС reports Leonid Slutsky views Putin's proposal as "outplaying" Western leaders.АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА views Putin's proposal as strategic, placing the onus on the Western side.Fighterbomber announces a program to discuss the ceasefire, Victory Day, and negotiations, framing it as a response to Putin's statement and using military slang. This indicates Russian media is actively engaging with the diplomatic developments to shape the narrative. Басурин о главном reiterates Zakharova's statement that Kyiv "poorly read" Putin's proposal.ТАСС reports Zakharova stated Putin's proposal is clear on sequencing (root causes then ceasefire).
Internal Russian Socio-Political Issues:Новости Москвы reports on many people complaining about cold in their apartments, highlighting potential issues with utility services. This could be an internal socio-political issue. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video reportedly of a Russian servicemember discussing post-war racketeering and violence by returning soldiers ("SVOshniks") who are unwilling to work for low wages and plan to extort businessmen, threatening violence against them and their families. This raises significant concerns about the potential for increased crime and social instability in Russia due to the return of veterans from the conflict.
Civilian Casualties and Damage:РБК-Україна and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 report on Russian guided aerial bomb strikes and FPV drone attacks on Pavlivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, causing damage and civilian casualties. This highlights the ongoing impact of Russian attacks on civilians. Два майора reports on continued Ukrainian attacks on Nova Pohoshch, Bryansk Oblast, with houses burning, highlighting cross-border shelling impacting civilian areas in Russia.ASTRA reports 4 people were injured in Kharkiv Oblast and 3 in Donetsk Oblast due to Russian attacks over the past day, with damage to civilian infrastructure.
Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)
Donetsk Oblast (including Pokrovsk, Dobropillya, Kramatorsk, Bogatyr, Pavlivka, Romanivka, Oleksandropil, Nova Poltavka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Chasiv Yar, Bila Hora, Mayske, Predtechyne, Druzhba, Toretsk, Scherbynivka, Dyliivka, Myrolubivka, Kotlyarivka, Myrne, Zorya, Malynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Dachenske, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Novoserhiyivka, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriyivka, Kostyantynopil, Vilne Pole, Pryvilne, Bahatyry, Shevchenko, Novopil): Continues to be a primary focus of intense ground combat. Liveuamap sources, citing the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, report active clashes and repelled attacks on the Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka axes, with numerous locations mentioned.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian forces engaged a Russian infiltration attempt near Pokrovsk during the claimed ceasefire.Colonelcassad lists Dobropillya and Kramatorsk as targets of Russian "Geran/Gerbera" strikes after the ceasefire ended.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also lists Dobropillya as a target of FABs.РБК-Україна and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 report on Russian guided aerial bomb strikes and FPV drone attacks on Pavlivka, causing damage and civilian casualties.Воин DV claims discovery of materials indicating low morale among Ukrainian forces during clearing operations in the southern part of Bogatyr.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of a Ukrainian FPV drone targeting a Russian sniper.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is fundraising for vehicles for a unit operating near Pokrovsk.ASTRA reports 3 people were injured in Donetsk Oblast due to Russian attacks over the past day.Colonelcassad shares a map reflecting claimed Russian advances on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions and correction of control zones near Andriivka and Novoserhiivka before the ceasefire.Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs towards Donetsk Oblast.
Sumy Oblast (including Bilopillya, Vorozhba, Konotop, Iskriskivshchina, Cherneve): Subjected to Russian aerial strikes (guided aerial bombs) and shelling of border settlements. Colonelcassad lists Bilopillya and Vorozhba as targets of Russian guided aerial bomb (UMPK) strikes after the ceasefire ended, and reports 2 explosions from RSZO/OTRK.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 lists Konotop as a target of FABs aimed at foreign personnel, and mentions strikes in Sumy.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming Russian forces destroyed a US-made Bradley fighting vehicle near Iskriskivshchina (near Tetkino) during a Ukrainian attempt to cross the border.Liveuamap source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Cherneve.
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (including Tetkino, Novy Put, Nova Pohoshch): Remains an area of active conflict with reported Ukrainian ground offensive attempts and intense fighting near Tetkino. ТАСС and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны report the Russian MoD claimed five attempts by Ukrainian forces to penetrate the state border in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts since May 8th.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian Bradley vehicle near Iskriskivshchina (near Tetkino) during a border penetration attempt.Два майора reports on continued Ukrainian attacks on Nova Pohoshch, Bryansk Oblast.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (including Stepnohirsk, Pavlivka, Novodarivka, Malynivka, Zaliznychne): Continues to be subjected to extensive Russian strikes. Colonelcassad lists Stepnohirsk as a target of Russian guided aerial bomb (UMPK) strikes after the ceasefire ended.🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on providing significant equipment, including drones and robotic complexes, to units on the Zaporizhzhia front.РБК-Україна and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 report on Russian guided aerial bomb strikes and FPV drone attacks on Pavlivka, causing damage and civilian casualties.Liveuamap source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Novodarivka, Malynivka, and Zaliznychne.
Kharkiv Oblast (including Vovchansk, Berezniki, Mala Shapkivka, Kamyanka): Affected by ongoing drone activity and shelling. Colonelcassad lists Kharkiv Oblast as a target of Russian strikes after the ceasefire ended, utilizing a "full spectrum of means."ASTRA reports 4 people were injured in Kharkiv Oblast due to Russian attacks over the past day, with damage to civilian infrastructure in Kupiansk, Kondrashevka community, Izium district, and Bohodukhiv district.Liveuamap source reports clashes near Vovchansk, Mala Shapkivka, and Kamyanka.Colonelcassad shares a map reflecting a correction of the control zone in Vovchansk before the ceasefire.
Kyiv Oblast (including Vyshhorod, Brovary, Obukhiv):Colonelcassad lists Vyshhorod, Brovary, and Obukhiv as targets of Russian "Geran/Gerbera" strikes after the ceasefire ended.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also lists Brovary and Kyiv as targets with 3 strikes.
Zhytomyr Oblast (including Zhytomyr, Ozerne airfield):Colonelcassad lists Zhytomyr and Zhytomyr Oblast as targets of Russian "Geran/Gerbera" strikes after the ceasefire ended.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 lists Zhytomyr as a target with 4 strikes, with speculation on targets being the military airfield in Ozerne (where F-16s allegedly arrived) and a railway station used for military logistics.
Bryansk Oblast (Russia) (including Nova Pohoshch):Два майора reports on continued Ukrainian attacks on Nova Pohoshch, with houses burning.
Tula Oblast (Russia) ("Shcheglovsky Val" enterprise):ASTRA and КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno report the destruction of a production building at this facility on May 7th, impacting the production of Pantsir systems and other military equipment.
Moscow Oblast (Russia) ("Basalt" plant in Krasnoarmiysk):ASTRA and КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno report a central workshop at this facility was hit on May 7th.
Kherson Oblast (Mykolayivka):Colonelcassad lists Kherson Oblast as a target of Russian strikes after the ceasefire ended, utilizing a "full spectrum of means."Liveuamap source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Mykolayivka.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the transfer of two HIMARS with escorts in Mykolaiv Oblast towards Kherson.
Cherkasy Oblast (Kaniv):Colonelcassad lists Kaniv as a target of Russian "Geran/Gerbera" strikes after the ceasefire ended.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also lists Kaniv as a target with 1 strike.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Novopavlivka, Petropavlivka):Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 lists Novopavlivka as a target of FABs and Petropavlivka as a target of a Geran drone.
Kupyansk axis:Liveuamap source reports clashes yesterday near Kindrashivka, Synkivka and near Zahryzove.
Siversk axis:Liveuamap source reports clashes yesterday near Hryhorivka and near Bilohorivka.
Novopavlivka axis:Liveuamap source reports clashes yesterday near Kostyantynopil, Vilne Pole, Pryvilne and towards Bahatyry, Shevchenko, Novopil.
Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):
Drone Activity:Extensive drone activity continues on both sides.ТАСС and ASTRA report the Russian MoD claimed to have shot down 143 Ukrainian UAVs in the past day, including 58 UAVs outside the "special operation zone" since May 8th.Colonelcassad lists "Geran/Gerbera" drone strikes on multiple Ukrainian regions after the ceasefire ended.🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on providing over 1100 drones to units on the Zaporizhzhia front over the past week.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of a Ukrainian FPV drone successfully targeting a Russian sniper.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian Bradley vehicle near the border after it attempted to evade a Russian FPV drone and was then finished off with kamikaze drones.РБК-Україна and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 report a subsequent FPV drone attack injuring a 56-year-old woman in Pavlivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, following KAB strikes.STERNENKO shares a video of Ukrainian forces destroying a Russian Merlin-VR thermal imaging reconnaissance UAV.Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV on the southwest of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This highlights the continued use of FPV and reconnaissance drones by both sides and their impact on civilians and military assets.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs):Colonelcassad lists guided aerial bomb (UMPK) strikes on Sumy and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts after the ceasefire ended.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 lists FAB strikes on Novopavlivka (Dnipropetrovsk) and Konotop (Sumy).ТАСС and ASTRA report the Russian MoD claimed to have shot down three US-made JDAM bombs.РБК-Україна and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 report on Russian guided aerial bomb strikes on Pavlivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, causing damage and civilian casualties.Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation towards Donetsk Oblast.Liveuamap sources report Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Cherneve of Sumy region, Myrne, Sukhyy Yar, Piddubne, Komar — of Donetsk region, Novodarivka, Malynivka, Zaliznychne — of Zaporizhzhia region, Mykolayivka — of Kherson region. This confirms the continued and damaging use of guided aerial bombs by Russian forces across multiple regions.
Missile Activity:Colonelcassad reports RSZO/OTRK strikes on Sumy Oblast.ТАСС and ASTRA report the Russian MoD claimed to have shot down three US-made JDAM bombs.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 lists potential strikes on a railway station near Zhytomyr used for military logistics.Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued a ballistic missile threat alert.ТАСС reports the Russian MoD claimed to have shot down five Neptune, six JDAM, and two HIMARS missiles/projectiles over the past day.
Aviation Activity:Colonelcassad reports Russian aviation resumed strikes after the ceasefire ended, utilizing a "full spectrum of means" in addition to guided bombs.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 lists FAB strikes on Novopavlivka and Konotop by Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS RF).Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 speculates on strikes targeting the Ozerne military airfield near Zhytomyr, where F-16s allegedly arrived.Liveuamap sources report Russian aviation conducted airstrikes in Sumy, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions.Fighterbomber shares a video with aviation footage, likely Russian.
Naval Activity: No new significant naval activity reported in the latest messages. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports NATO reconnaissance active over the Black Sea.
Air Defense Activity:ТАСС and ASTRA report the Russian MoD claimed to have shot down three US-made JDAM bombs and 143 Ukrainian UAVs in the past day, including 58 UAVs outside the "special operation zone" since May 8th.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian Bradley vehicle and used kamikaze drones to finish it off after an FPV drone caused it to overturn near the border.ASTRA and КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno report the destruction of a facility producing Pantsir anti-aircraft systems, which could impact Russian air defense capabilities in the future.ТАСС reports Peskov stated Russian air defense is effective.STERNENKO shares a video of Ukrainian forces destroying a Russian Merlin-VR thermal imaging reconnaissance UAV, highlighting Ukrainian counter-drone effectiveness.ТАСС reports the Russian MoD claimed to have shot down five Neptune, six JDAM, and two HIMARS missiles/projectiles over the past day.
Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):
Ceasefire Discussions:A significant diplomatic initiative for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire starting May 12th has been put forward by Ukraine and key European leaders, including a joint call with Donald Trump.РБК-Україна shares Yermak's statement emphasizing that a 30-day ceasefire is the first step and Russia should not mask its desire to continue the war.STERNENKO and Оперативний ЗСУ share Macron's tweet confirming the joint proposal with Trump and Zelensky's unconditional commitment, stating that negotiations require a ceasefire.Russian officials and military bloggers have reacted negatively and dismissively to the proposal.Alex Parker Returns, НгП раZVедка, Kotsnews, ТАСС (citing Slutsky and Peskov), Военкор Котенок, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, and WarGonzo all interpret the proposal as unfavorable to Russia and a tactic by Ukraine/West, while portraying Russia's counter-proposal for talks in Istanbul as genuine and strategic.Colonelcassad interprets Ushakov's statement (from previous reporting) as indicating Russia seeks a peace based on "realities on the ground" and the 2022 Istanbul talks, implying recognition of the loss of four Ukrainian regions.ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova stated Kyiv "poorly read" the transcript of Putin's statement on negotiations and that Putin clearly stated first talks on root causes, then a ceasefire.ТАСС reports Peskov considered Zelensky's words on inability to guarantee safety to leaders in Moscow as "state terrorism."ТАСС reports Karin Kneissl viewed Putin's proposal as a concession reflecting true diplomacy.
Ukraine-International Relations:Ukrainian leaders and European leaders, including those from France, Germany, UK, and Poland, participated in a joint call with Donald Trump to discuss peace efforts. This highlights continued high-level international engagement. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 is reporting on military aid received and distributed.Олександр Вілкул is engaging in veteran support initiatives.РБК-Україна reports on Macron's statement regarding the potential deployment of several thousand foreign troops to Ukraine as a second line of defense.
Russia-International Relations:Russian officials are emphasizing their proposal for talks in Istanbul and interpreting the Western ceasefire proposal negatively.Басурин о главном is promoting historical narratives linking Western countries to negative ideologies.ТАСС reports that Peskov stated Putin's proposal for talks is serious.ТАСС reports Leonid Slutsky views Putin's proposal as a strategic success.ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova stated Kyiv "poorly read" Putin's proposal and that Putin's sequencing is clear.ТАСС reports Peskov considered Zelensky's words on inability to guarantee safety to leaders in Moscow as "state terrorism."ТАСС reports Karin Kneissl viewed Putin's proposal as a concession.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports NATO reconnaissance active over the Black Sea.
Information Operations:Both sides continue extensive information operations surrounding the ceasefire discussions and military activities. Russian sources are portraying Ukraine as the aggressor violating the ceasefire and framing the Western ceasefire proposal as a tactic for rearmament. They are promoting their own proposal for talks in Istanbul as genuine and strategic. Historical narratives are being used to support political messaging. Ukrainian sources are highlighting Russian strikes during the claimed ceasefire and emphasizing their readiness for talks if a ceasefire is confirmed. Басурин о главном's historical piece on British influence on Nazism is a clear information operation.Kotsnews's "Putin's signature judo" commentary frames the diplomatic situation favorably for Russia.ТАСС reporting on Russian MoD claims of massive Ukrainian violations and border incursions is likely part of an information operation.ТАСС reporting on Miroshnik's statement (from previous reports) about Ukrainian rearmament is an information operation tactic.Alex Parker Returns uses dismissive language and conspiracy narratives.WarGonzo frames Putin's proposal as a strategic initiative.НгП раZVедка uses crude language and promotes negative narratives about Ukraine.ТАСС reporting on Peskov's and Slutsky's statements supports the official Russian narrative.АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА frames Putin's proposal as strategic and the Western proposal as a resupply tactic.Fighterbomber's announcement of a program discussing the diplomatic and military situation indicates active engagement with the narrative.Басурин о главном reiterates Zakharova's statement that Kyiv "poorly read" Putin's proposal.ТАСС reports Zakharova's statement on Putin's clear sequencing for talks.ТАСС reports Peskov's comment on Zelensky's "state terrorism" regarding leader safety.
Internal Ukrainian Politics:Ukrainian officials are engaging in high-level international diplomacy regarding a potential ceasefire.🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 is reporting on military aid received and distributed.Генеральний штаб ЗСУ and 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України are focusing on personnel stories and unit activities to boost morale and encourage recruitment/support.Олександр Вілкул is engaging in veteran support initiatives.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is fundraising for a military unit.
Internal Russian Issues:Новости Москвы reports on civilian complaints about cold apartments, highlighting a potential issue with utility services.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video raising concerns about potential post-war crime and social instability due to returning veterans, which is a significant internal issue.
Ukraine-US Relations:Donald Trump participated in a joint call with Ukrainian and European leaders regarding peace efforts.ТАСС and ASTRA report the Russian MoD claimed to have shot down three US-made JDAM bombs, highlighting the presence of US military aid in the conflict.
Russia-Turkey Relations: Russia is proposing to resume peace talks in Istanbul.
India-Pakistan Conflict: No new significant updates in the latest messages, but it remains a backdrop of regional instability.
Internal Russian Issues (Updated):
Internal Security:ТАСС and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны report the Russian MoD claimed five attempts by Ukrainian forces to penetrate the state border in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts since May 8th, indicating ongoing cross-border security concerns.Два майора reports on continued Ukrainian attacks on Nova Pohoshch, Bryansk Oblast, resulting in burning houses and impacting civilian areas near the border.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video reportedly of a Russian servicemember discussing potential post-war racketeering and violence by returning soldiers, raising significant concerns about future internal security and crime related to veterans.Новости Москвы reports on scammers impersonating former employers to access "Gosuslugi" accounts (from previous reporting), highlighting ongoing internal security concerns and criminal activity.ТАСС reports Peskov considered Zelensky's words on inability to guarantee safety to leaders in Moscow as "state terrorism," highlighting security concerns around high-profile events.
Military Performance and Capabilities:ТАСС and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны report the Russian MoD claimed to have repelled numerous Ukrainian attacks and inflicted losses, and shot down numerous UAVs and JDAM bombs.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian Bradley vehicle near the border using FPV and kamikaze drones.Colonelcassad reports Russian forces resumed strikes across multiple regions after the ceasefire, using a "full spectrum of means," including guided aerial bombs and drones.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 provides details on Russian strikes, including FAB and Geran use, and speculated targets.ASTRA and КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno report the destruction of a key Russian military production facility ("Shcheglovsky Val") on May 7th, impacting the production of Pantsir systems, combat modules, and anti-tank missiles, and a central workshop at the "Basalt" plant. This is a significant blow to Russian military production capacity.STERNENKO shares a video of Ukrainian forces destroying a Russian Merlin-VR thermal imaging reconnaissance UAV, indicating successful Ukrainian efforts against Russian reconnaissance assets.Colonelcassad shares a map reflecting claimed Russian advances on multiple fronts before the ceasefire.ТАСС reports the Russian MoD claimed to have shot down five Neptune, six JDAM, and two HIMARS missiles/projectiles over the past day.ТАСС reports Peskov stated Russian air defense is effective.
Civilian Impact:Два майора reports on continued Ukrainian attacks on Nova Pohoshch, Bryansk Oblast, with houses burning, highlighting the impact of cross-border shelling on civilians in Russia.Новости Москвы reports on civilian complaints about cold apartments, indicating potential issues with utility services.
Information Control and Propaganda:Russian state media and military bloggers are actively engaged in information operations to control the narrative around the ceasefire discussions and military activities. Claims of massive Ukrainian violations, portraying the Western proposal negatively, and promoting their own proposal as genuine are key elements. Historical narratives are being used for political messaging. Басурин о главном's historical piece is a clear example of propaganda.Kotsnews, Alex Parker Returns, НгП раZVедка, ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, and WarGonzo are all contributing to the Russian information space with specific narratives and interpretations of events.Басурин о главном reiterates Zakharova's statement that Kyiv "poorly read" Putin's proposal.ТАСС reports Zakharova's statement on Putin's clear sequencing for talks.ТАСС reports Peskov's comment on Zelensky's "state terrorism" regarding leader safety.
Socio-Political Issues:БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video raising concerns about potential post-war crime and social instability due to returning veterans.Новости Москвы reports on civilian complaints about cold apartments.
Logistical Challenges:БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is fundraising for vehicles for a unit operating near Pokrovsk, highlighting continued need for logistical support for frontline units. This can also be interpreted as an internal Russian issue if official supply chains are insufficient.
Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)
Military Support (Ukraine):🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on providing over 81 million UAH worth of equipment to units on the Zaporizhzhia front, including drones and robotic complexes.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is fundraising for vehicles for a unit operating near Pokrovsk.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the transfer of two HIMARS with escorts in Mykolaiv Oblast towards Kherson, indicating potential reinforcement. This highlights ongoing efforts to equip and support Ukrainian forces.
Veteran Support (Ukraine):Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares a story about a wounded veteran retraining, highlighting support for returning soldiers.Олександр Вілкул reports on meeting with a Hero of Ukraine to discuss veteran policy, indicating efforts to address the needs of veterans.
Military Morale and Commemoration (Ukraine):Генеральний штаб ЗСУ and 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України are sharing stories and reports to inform the public and boost morale.
Support for Civilians (Ukraine):РБК-Україна and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 report on civilian casualties and damage from Russian strikes, indicating ongoing humanitarian needs.ASTRA reports on civilian casualties and damage in Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts.🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on a healthy food campaign and the creation of a culinary hub for school meals, highlighting efforts to support civilian well-being and infrastructure.
Internal Support (Russia): No new significant updates in the latest messages directly related to organized support or rehabilitation programs, although fundraising efforts by military bloggers (mentioned in previous reports) continue. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's video about potential post-war crime by veterans implicitly suggests a lack of adequate support or reintegration programs for returning soldiers.
Civilian Support (Russia):Два майора reports on houses burning in Nova Pohoshch due to Ukrainian attacks, highlighting the impact on civilians in border regions.Новости Москвы reports on civilian complaints about cold apartments.
Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)
Russia: Continues offensive operations and significant aerial strikes across multiple fronts, including border regions. Utilizing a range of assets including guided aerial bombs (UMPK, FABs), "Geran/Gerbera" drones, FPV drones, artillery, and MLRS/OTRK. Claiming high numbers of Ukrainian ceasefire violations and successful repulsion of border penetration attempts. Conducting extensive information operations to control the narrative. Experiencing losses of military production capacity due to Ukrainian deep strikes (Basalt plant, Shcheglovsky Val). Facing ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks and potential cross-border activity. Reports of tactical advances in Donetsk Oblast (previous reports). Resumed widespread strikes after the claimed ceasefire ended.Using guided aerial bombs and drones on multiple regions.Claiming massive Ukrainian ceasefire violations and border incursions.Utilizing FPV and kamikaze drones near the border.Potentially facing issues with utility services in some civilian areas (complaints about cold).Facing a significant setback in military production capacity due to the strike on the Shcheglovsky Val and Basalt plants.Engaging in active ground combat across multiple axes in Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts.Utilizing Merlin-VR reconnaissance drones.Transferring HIMARS to the Kherson direction (reported by Ukrainian source).
Ukraine: Maintaining defensive positions while conducting limited offensive actions and cross-border operations (reported by Russian sources). Actively countering Russian aerial and drone attacks with air defense and electronic warfare. Utilizing FPV drones for tactical engagements. Conducting deep strikes against Russian military infrastructure (Basalt plant, Shcheglovsky Val). Enhancing military capabilities through initiatives like the "Brave1 Market" and acquiring modern equipment (drones, robotic systems, HIMARS). Focusing on personnel support, veteran care, and recruitment. Publicly proposing a conditional ceasefire for negotiations. Facing continued Russian strikes on civilian areas. Engaged Russian forces near the border, including reportedly destroying a Bradley vehicle.Using FPV drones for tactical engagements.Successfully struck key Russian military production facilities.Acquiring significant amounts of drones and robotic complexes for the Zaporizhzhia front.Promoting veteran support and recruitment initiatives.Calling for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire.Engaging in active ground combat across multiple axes in Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts, repelling numerous attacks.Utilizing UAVs for targeting (as seen in the sniper strike video).Successfully destroying Russian reconnaissance UAVs (Merlin-VR).Receiving HIMARS on the Kherson direction.
Strategic Considerations (Updated)
The successful Ukrainian deep strike on the "Shcheglovsky Val" enterprise and "Basalt" plant is a significant strategic development. The destruction of facilities producing Pantsir systems and other key military equipment directly impacts Russia's defense capabilities and war effort. This demonstrates Ukraine's ability to strike high-value targets deep within Russia and could influence Russia's strategic planning and resource allocation, potentially forcing them to rely more on existing stockpiles or seek alternative sources for these critical systems.
The immediate and widespread resumption of Russian strikes across multiple Ukrainian regions following the declared ceasefire, coupled with their dismissive reaction to the Western ceasefire proposal, strongly indicates that Russia is currently prioritizing military pressure and territorial gains over genuine de-escalation or negotiations based on Ukraine's proposed terms. Their actions on the ground directly contradict their rhetorical claims of observing a ceasefire. The differing interpretations of the ceasefire proposal and the sequencing of talks (Ukraine: ceasefire then talks; Russia: root causes then ceasefire) highlight a fundamental disconnect in their approaches.
The diplomatic exchange surrounding the ceasefire proposal highlights a clear divergence in approaches to ending the conflict. Ukraine and its Western partners are seeking a cessation of hostilities as a precondition for talks, while Russia appears to be using the offer of negotiations as a tool to legitimize its territorial gains ("realities on the ground") and potentially impose terms based on the unfavorable (for Ukraine) 2022 Istanbul framework. The Russian information operations surrounding this further reinforce their stance and aim to shift blame for the lack of peace onto Ukraine and the West.
The ongoing reports of civilian casualties and damage in both Ukraine (from Russian strikes) and Russia (from Ukrainian cross-border attacks) underscore the devastating human cost of the conflict and the challenges in protecting civilian populations in active combat zones and border regions. The FPV drone attack injuring a civilian in Pavlivka, Zaporizhzhia, highlights the expanding threat of these tactical drones to non-combatants.
The concerns raised by a Russian military blogger about potential post-war crime and social instability by returning veterans ("SVOshniks") who may engage in racketeering and violence are highly significant. This suggests potential long-term societal impacts of the conflict within Russia and could pose a future internal security challenge, potentially diverting resources or impacting public order.
Ukraine's continued efforts to acquire modern military equipment, particularly drones and robotic complexes, and streamline procurement through initiatives like the "Brave1 Market" demonstrate a strategic focus on leveraging technology and improving logistics to enhance their military effectiveness and adaptability in a protracted conflict. This could provide Ukraine with a crucial advantage in certain tactical areas. The reported transfer of HIMARS to the Kherson direction indicates a focus on bolstering capabilities on that front.
The reported Ukrainian attempts at border penetration in the Kursk/Sumy region and the engagement with a Bradley vehicle near the border suggest a potential continuation of limited cross-border operations aimed at creating pressure on Russian territory, diverting Russian resources, or achieving tactical objectives in those areas.
The continued Russian information operations, including the use of historical narratives to link Western support for Ukraine to negative ideologies and portraying Ukraine as the aggressor, remain a critical component of the conflict. Countering these narratives effectively is essential for maintaining international support for Ukraine and influencing public opinion.
The reported statements from Macron regarding the potential deployment of several thousand foreign troops to Ukraine as a second line of defense, if realized, would represent a significant escalation and a new strategic dimension to the conflict, potentially impacting Russia's military calculations and the overall geopolitical landscape.
The ongoing intense ground combat across multiple axes in Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts, as reported by the Ukrainian General Staff and reflected in claimed Russian advances, indicates that territorial control in the east remains a primary strategic objective for both sides. The high number of attacks and counterattacks highlight the contested nature of these fronts.
Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.
