Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 11, 2025, 06:46 UTC)
Updated Situation
The operational environment continues to be dominated by intense ground combat across multiple axes, particularly in eastern and southern Ukraine, and the persistent, high-intensity fighting in the Kursk border region. Russian forces maintain extensive aerial and drone activity, including the use of guided aerial bombs and a high volume of FPV drone and artillery strikes. Diplomatically, the focus remains on the possibility of peace negotiations, with Donald Trump expressing renewed optimism about a potential end to the conflict and a shift in the US focus to rebuilding and trade, even as Russian sources interpret recent Russian proposals and diplomatic engagements as a demonstration of their readiness for negotiations on their terms. The declared Russian ceasefire for Victory Day has largely passed, with Ukrainian and Russian sources confirming ongoing fighting and violations. Internally, both sides are engaged in information operations and efforts to maintain morale and address internal issues.
Key updates from the latest messages include:
Continued Intense Ground Combat and Disregard for Ceasefire (Confirmed by both sides):The Ukrainian General Staff reports 161 combat engagements were recorded yesterday (May 10th).Significant fighting continues across numerous sectors:
Pokrovsk Direction: Ukrainian defenders stopped 60 assault and offensive actions of the aggressor towards numerous settlements. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights that 60 out of 161 combat engagements yesterday were on the Pokrovsk direction.
Kursk Direction: 25 combat clashes of varying intensity were recorded yesterday. Russian forces also launched 18 airstrikes using 28 guided aerial bombs and conducted 265 artillery shellings, including three from MLRS. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights 25 combat engagements on the Kursk direction yesterday.
Other Directions: Ukrainian forces repelled three attacks near Vovchansk, Malaya Shapkivka, and Kamianka (Kharkiv Direction); three attacks near Kіndrashіvka, Syn'kіvka, and Zagryzove (Kupyansk Direction); eight Russian attacks towards Cherneshchyna, Olhivka, Ridkodub, Nove, Zelena Dolyna, Yampolivka, and Kopanky (Lyman Direction); four Russian attacks towards Gryhorivka and Bilohorivka (Siversk Direction); nine combat clashes near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Chasiv Yar, Bila Hora, Maiske, and Predtechine (Kramatorsk Direction); 12 attacks in the areas of Druzhba, Toretsk, Shcherbinka, and towards Dyliivka (Toretsk Direction); 13 enemy attacks near Kostyantynopil, Vilne Pole, Pryvilne, Bahtyr, Shevchenko, and Novopil (Novopavlivka Direction); 13 attacks in the areas of Novopil and Novosilka (Huliaipilskyi Direction); two unsuccessful attacks in the area of Stepove and towards Novodanylivka (Orikhiv Direction); and three unsuccessful attempts to advance (Dnipro/Kherson Direction).
STERNENKO emphasizes that Russians are planning new offensives and have not stopped them.
End of Russian Unilateral Ceasefire and Continued Alerts:Astra reports that the unilaterally adopted three-day ceasefire declared by Putin has ended today.ASTRA also reports that air raid alerts were in effect across Ukrainian regions all night, including in Kyiv.КМВА reports the lifting of the air raid alert in Kyiv.🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports the lifting of the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This confirms the non-observance of a ceasefire in many areas. РБК-Україна reports that Russia attacked Ukraine with drones again after three days of the so-called "ceasefire."
Updated Estimated Russian Losses:The Ukrainian General Staff reports estimated total Russian combat losses from February 24, 2022, to May 11, 2025:
Personnel: ~965,890 (+1310 in the last day)
Tanks: 10792 (+2)
Troop-carrying AFVs: 22446 (+6)
Artillery Systems: 27670 (+33)
MLRS: 1381 (+1)
Anti-aircraft Systems: 1159 (+1)
UAV operational-tactical level: 35537 (+55)
Vehicles & Fuel Tanks: 47947 (+117)
Special Equipment: 3878 (+3)
Other categories (Aircraft, Helicopters, Cruise Missiles, Warships/Boats, Submarines) remain unchanged from the previous report.
Оперативний ЗСУ also reports that 1310 occupiers were eliminated yesterday. These figures indicate continued significant attrition of Russian forces.
Continued Russian Aerial and Drone Activity:The Ukrainian General Staff reports that over four thousand shellings were carried out by the enemy yesterday, including 85 from MLRS, and 2470 kamikaze drones were used.63 aviation strikes were conducted, with 96 guided bombs dropped.Russian aviation strikes were carried out in the areas of Cherneve (Sumy Oblast), Myrne, Sukhyi Yar, Piddubne, Komar (Donetsk Oblast), Novodarivka, Malynivka, Zaliznychne (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), and Mykolaivka (Kherson Oblast).Олег Синєгубов reports 13 КАБ, 1 Lancet, and 1 FPV drone used by the enemy in Kharkiv Oblast yesterday.РБК-Україна reports that Russia attacked Ukraine with drones again after three days of the so-called "ceasefire."The Ukrainian Air Force reports the lifting of the threat of attack UAVs.Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the enemy attacked Kyiv Oblast with UAVs in the morning, injuring a man and damaging houses.ASTRA reports one person was injured as a result of a night Ukrainian attack on Belgorod Oblast, with a drone striking a moving car in the city of Valuyki.ASTRA reports that one person was injured in Kyiv Oblast as a result of the Russian attack.РБК-Україна confirms the Russian drone attack on Kyiv Oblast causing injury.Воин DV shares a video claiming a Russian Su-34 used an ODAB-1500 to strike an enemy base in Temirovka on May 7th.Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports launches of guided aerial bombs on Kharkivshchyna and Sumshchyna.
Ukrainian Strikes and Engagements:Over the past day, Ukrainian aviation, missile troops, and artillery struck nine areas of personnel and equipment concentration, an artillery piece, a radar station, and another important enemy object.ASTRA reports one person was injured as a result of a night Ukrainian attack on Belgorod Oblast, with a drone striking a moving car in the city of Valuyki, causing multiple shrapnel wounds.Russian military blogger Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show a destroyed Ukrainian BMP-1TS in occupied part of DNR.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of "Pirates" from the 12th Azov Brigade discussing their assault and clearing operations.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a Russian "self-shooting" incident in Sumy Oblast.STERNENKO shares a video of an FPV drone striking a target, implying successful Ukrainian action.
Donald Trump's Continued Commentary on Peace:РБК-Україна and STERNENKO report that Donald Trump has made a statement following Putin's effective rejection of his ceasefire idea from May 12th. Trump tweeted about a "potentially great day for Russia and Ukraine," expressing hope for an end to the "endless 'blood bath'" and emphasizing the potential to save hundreds of thousands of lives. He stated he would continue to work with both sides and that the US wants to focus on "Rebuilding and Trade." He also mentioned a "BIG week upcoming!". Оперативний ЗСУ also shares and comments on Trump's statement.ТАСС and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also report on Trump's statement, noting he welcomed Putin's proposal for direct talks. This indicates continued US interest in a negotiated solution and a potential shift in focus for the US.
Russian Perspective on Negotiations and the Situation:Rybar and «Зона СВО» provide their analytical summaries of the situation. They view the end of the 80th-anniversary week of Victory as marked by official explanations of its purpose. They highlight Putin's statement on the readiness for direct negotiations with Kyiv in Istanbul without preconditions, interpreting it as a message to the US and a demonstration of Russia's willingness to negotiate. However, they emphasize what they see as Ukrainian violations of the declared Russian ceasefire and continued fighting in border areas and other fronts. They conclude that Moscow is trying to enter negotiations from a stronger position and that any potential "freeze" would occur along the current line of contact, while stating that all Russian-declared ceasefires have ended. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 echoes the sentiment that Putin's proposal is a demonstration to the world that the "Kyiv junta" will not negotiate on Russian terms as long as arms supplies continue, suggesting Western enrichment from the conflict.РБК-Україна reports that Putin rejected the 30-day ceasefire proposal from May 12th and proposed renewing direct negotiations with Ukraine on May 15th in Istanbul.РБК-Україна also reports that Putin announced a conversation with Turkish President Erdogan regarding the war in Ukraine.Басурин о главном shares a video titled "THE MOST IMPORTANT STATEMENTS OF THE PRESIDENT," likely referring to Putin, emphasizing their significance.ТАСС reports on the reaction of Turkish media to Putin's statements, noting interpretations of trust in Turkey and a commitment to Russia's current course.Fighterbomber states the ceasefire has ended and the war continues, expressing hope for negotiations to start tomorrow.Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports Putin offered Kyiv direct negotiations in Istanbul on May 15th without preconditions, presenting it as another chance for Ukraine to preserve its statehood.
Russian Military Morale and Logistics:«Зона СВО» shares a motivational photo and caption for the morning, emphasizing strength in not giving up.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares photos of Russian soldiers repairing their vehicles, highlighting ongoing logistical and maintenance activities.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is fundraising for a Mavic 3 Pro drone and a signal amplifier for a soldier.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is selling backpacks with VDV logos, indicating ongoing support and merchandising efforts.
Russian Domestic Policy:ТАСС reports on a positive evaluation by the Russian Ministry of Culture of the idea of studying the history of cinema in schools, framed within national pride. This is a non-military domestic development. ТАСС reports on a proposal in the State Duma to include OSAGO in the cost of renting electric scooters.ТАСС reports that the head of the search and rescue squad "LisaAlert" discussed the risks to children found alone on the streets.Новости Москвы reports on impending cold weather, rain, and wet snow in Moscow.ТАСС reports on the risks of talking to scammers even in jest.
Internal Russian Incident:ASTRA reports on a case of alleged police brutality against a disabled anti-war demonstrator in Moscow on May 9th, who was reportedly beaten after holding a "No to War" poster and was held overnight before being released with suspicion of a head injury. This highlights internal dissent and the measures taken by Russian authorities to suppress it. ASTRA reports on a resident of Pyatigorsk who was unhappy with participants of the war in Ukraine with Wagner symbols leading the Victory Day parade instead of WWII veterans.
Commemoration of DPR Anniversary:Басурин о главном shares a message celebrating the 11th anniversary of the Donetsk People's Republic, framing it as a day of freedom from "violent Ukrainization and Ukrainian nationalism" and a return to Russia. This is a clear information operation reinforcing the narrative of self-determination and integration with Russia. WarGonzo commemorates the 11th anniversary of the referendum on self-determination in the DPR.
Ukrainian Drone Attack in Belgorod Oblast:ASTRA reports one person was injured as a result of a night Ukrainian attack on Belgorod Oblast, with a drone striking a moving car in the city of Valuyki, causing multiple shrapnel wounds. This confirms a successful Ukrainian strike in a Russian border region, resulting in civilian casualties.
French President Macron's Comments on Ceasefire:ASTRA reports that French President Macron stated in Przemysl, Poland, on his way back from Kyiv, that "unconditional ceasefire does not precede negotiations." He also said that Putin is "looking for a way out, but he still wants to gain time" and that Putin's proposal to renew direct talks is a "first step, but insufficient." Операція Z: Военкоры Русской Весны also reports on Macron's comments, emphasizing that he views Putin's proposal as insufficient and that unconditional ceasefire should not precede negotiations.Оперативний ЗСУ echoes Macron's sentiment that Putin is delaying and that unconditional ceasefire should not precede negotiations.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports Macron's statement, viewing Putin's proposal as insufficient and stating unconditional ceasefire doesn't precede negotiations.
Ukrainian Rare Earth Metals and US Interest:РБК-Україна reports on a discussion by the National Academy of Sciences about Ukrainian rare earth metal reserves and what the US is looking for in Ukraine's subsoil, including whether valuable resources are located in occupied territories and the potential impact of the presence of US companies on deoccupation. This highlights the strategic importance of natural resources in the conflict and potential areas of international economic and political interest.
Change in British Intelligence Leadership:Басурин о главном reports that the head of British intelligence MI6 will be a woman for the first time. While not directly military, changes in intelligence leadership can have strategic implications. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer promised to destroy the "shadow fleet" and that the British will introduce new sanctions against 100 oil tankers.
Funding Efforts for Ukrainian Drones:STERNENKO highlights a significant need and fundraising efforts for 3500 FPV drones for the Ukrainian military. This indicates a critical requirement for these assets on the front lines and ongoing efforts to provide them through public support. STERNENKO also reports on a Russian UAV attack in Kyiv Oblast causing injury and damage.STERNENKO is fundraising for a drone team called "Apachi".
Civilian Impact and Remembrance:Олег Синєгубов reports on civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast due to Russian shelling and drone attacks.Images shared by the Ukrainian General Staff and Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration call for a national moment of silence to honor those killed in the war.Kyiv City Military Administration is commemorating a fallen defender.The Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration shared a message for Mother's Day, highlighting the role of mothers during the war.🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 calls for a minute of silence daily at 9:00.
Information Operations/Historical Narratives:Филолог в засаде shares links to military-historical content related to WWII, suggesting potential lessons relevant to the current conflict and highlighting documentaries.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Radio-Technical Plant:ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the Ukrainian Defense Forces completely destroyed the Russian radio-technical plant "Strela" in Bryansk Oblast according to satellite images. This indicates a successful long-range strike on a Russian military-industrial facility.
Russian Claims of Advance near Chasiv Yar:Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian forces liberated the territory north of Chasiv Yar, specifically the Severny mine, stating that the enemy has lost control of this part of the suburb.
Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)
Pokrovsk Direction:Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat, with Ukrainian forces stopping 60 assault and offensive actions of the aggressor towards numerous settlements. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights that 60 out of 161 combat engagements yesterday were on the Pokrovsk direction.
Kursk Oblast (Russia) / Sumy Oblast (Ukraine Border):Continued high-intensity fighting persists, with 25 combat clashes recorded yesterday. Russian forces also launched 18 airstrikes using 28 guided aerial bombs and conducted 265 artillery shellings, including three from MLRS. Russian aviation strikes were also carried out in the Cherneve area of Sumy Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights 25 combat engagements on the Kursk direction yesterday.ASTRA reports one person was injured as a result of a night Ukrainian drone attack in Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast.Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports launches of guided aerial bombs on Sumshchyna.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a Russian "self-shooting" incident in Sumy Oblast.
Donetsk Oblast (including Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Myrne, Sukhyi Yar, Piddubne, Komar, Novopoltavka, Myroliubivka, Kotliarivka, Myrny, Zorya, Malynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Dachensk, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Novoserhiivka, Udachne, Novoolexandrivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriiivka, Kostyantynopil, Vilne Pole, Pryvilne, Bahtyr, Shevchenko, Novopil, Cherneshchyna, Olhivka, Ridkodub, Nove, Zelena Dolyna, Yampolivka, Kopanky, Gryhorivka, Bilohorivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Chasiv Yar, Bila Hora, Maiske, Predtechine, Druzhba, Toretsk, Shcherbinka, Dyliivka, Temirovka, Severny Mine near Chasiv Yar):Continues to be a primary focus of intense ground combat, with significant numbers of engagements reported across multiple directions, including Pokrovsk (60), Novopavlivka (13), Lyman (8), Siversk (4), Kramatorsk (9), and Toretsk (12). Russian aviation strikes targeted Myrne, Sukhyi Yar, Piddubne, Komar, and potentially Temirovka with an ODAB-1500. Russian military blogger Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show a destroyed Ukrainian BMP-1TS in occupied part of DNR.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of "Pirates" from the 12th Azov Brigade discussing their assault and clearing operations.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian forces liberated the Severny mine north of Chasiv Yar.
Kharkiv Direction (including Vovchansk, Malaya Shapkivka, Kamianka, Kіndrashіvka, Syn'kіvka, Zagryzove, Kupiansk, Blahodativka, Iziumskyi, Bohodukhivskyi): Ukrainian forces repelled three enemy attacks. Олег Синєгубов reports on civilian casualties and damage in Kupiansk and Blahodativka, and damage in Iziumskyi and Bohodukhivskyi districts.Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports launches of guided aerial bombs on Kharkivshchyna.
Kupyansk Direction (including Kіndrashіvka, Syn'kіvka, Zagryzove): Ukrainian forces repelled three enemy attacks.
Huliaipilskyi Direction (including Novopil, Novosilka): Russian forces conducted 13 attacks.
Orikhiv Direction (including Stepove, Novodanylivka): Russian forces conducted two unsuccessful attacks. Russian aviation strikes targeted Novodarivka, Malynivka, and Zaliznychne.
Dnipro (Kherson) Direction (including Mykolaivka): Russian forces conducted three unsuccessful attempts to advance. Russian aviation strikes targeted Mykolaivka.
Kyiv Oblast (including Brovarskyi, Obukhivskyi):Attacked by Russian UAVs in the morning, resulting in injuries and damage to houses.ASTRA reports that one person was injured in Kyiv Oblast as a result of the Russian attack.РБК-Україна confirms the Russian drone attack on Kyiv Oblast causing injury.
Belgorod Oblast (Russia) (including Valuyki):One person injured as a result of a night Ukrainian drone attack in Valuyki.
Przemysl (Poland): Location where French President Macron made comments on the ceasefire.
Ukraine's Subsoil: Focus of discussion regarding rare earth metals and potential US interest.
Bryansk Oblast (Russia):ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the Ukrainian Defense Forces completely destroyed the Russian radio-technical plant "Strela" in Bryansk Oblast.
Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):
Drone Activity:Extensive drone activity continues on both sides.The Ukrainian General Staff reports 2470 kamikaze drones were used by the enemy yesterday.Олег Синєгубов reports 1 Lancet, and 1 FPV drone used by the enemy in Kharkiv Oblast yesterday. Previous reports indicate widespread Russian drone activity across multiple Ukrainian oblasts, particularly near Zhytomyr and in Kyiv Oblast, with detailed tracking of multi-directional movements. The showcases of Russian drone operations for reconnaissance and targeting and archival footage of Russian drone strikes continue to be shared by Russian military bloggers.РБК-Україна reports that Russia attacked Ukraine with drones again after three days of the so-called "ceasefire."The Ukrainian Air Force reports the lifting of the threat of attack UAVs.Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the enemy attacked Kyiv Oblast with UAVs in the morning, injuring a man and damaging houses.ASTRA reports one person was injured as a result of a night Ukrainian attack on Belgorod Oblast, with a drone striking a moving car in the city of Valuyki.ASTRA reports that one person was injured in Kyiv Oblast as a result of the Russian attack.РБК-Україна confirms the Russian drone attack on Kyiv Oblast causing injury.STERNENKO highlights a significant need and fundraising efforts for 3500 FPV drones for the Ukrainian military.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is fundraising for a Mavic 3 Pro drone and a signal amplifier for a soldier.STERNENKO is fundraising for a drone team called "Apachi" and shares a video of a successful FPV strike.Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video claiming to show Russian drones using fiber optics.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs):The Ukrainian General Staff reports 96 guided bombs were dropped by the enemy yesterday.Russian aviation used 28 guided aerial bombs in the Kursk region. Russian aviation strikes targeted Cherneve (Sumy Oblast), Myrne, Sukhyi Yar, Piddubne, Komar (Donetsk Oblast), Novodarivka, Malynivka, Zaliznychne (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), and Mykolaivka (Kherson Oblast). Олег Синєгубов reports 13 КАБ used by the enemy in Kharkiv Oblast yesterday.Воин DV shares a video claiming a Russian Su-34 used an ODAB-1500 to strike an enemy base in Temirovka on May 7th.Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports launches of guided aerial bombs on Kharkivshchyna and Sumshchyna.
Missile Activity:The Ukrainian General Staff reports 85 shellings from MLRS were carried out by the enemy yesterday.Russian forces conducted three artillery shellings from MLRS in the Kursk region. Previous reports of missile threats remain relevant. The presence of a "Kalibr" carrier in the Mediterranean continues to pose a potential threat.
Aviation Activity:The Ukrainian General Staff reports 63 aviation strikes were conducted by the enemy yesterday. Russian aviation strikes were carried out in the areas of Cherneve (Sumy Oblast), Myrne, Sukhyi Yar, Piddubne, Komar (Donetsk Oblast), Novodarivka, Malynivka, Zaliznychne (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), and Mykolaivka (Kherson Oblast). Russian aviation is reportedly conducting airstrikes in several settlements of Sumy Oblast. Activity of enemy tactical aviation was reported on the southeastern and northeastern directions previously. The Ukrainian Air Force previously reported activity of Russian tactical aviation on the northeastern direction, with a threat of aerial guided missile use for frontline regions. Воин DV shares a video claiming a Russian Su-34 used an ODAB-1500 to strike an enemy base in Temirovka on May 7th.Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aviation on Kharkivshchyna and Sumshchyna and observes activity of enemy tactical aviation on the eastern and northeastern directions.
Naval Activity: No Russian missile carriers were reported present in the Black or Azov Seas previously. One "Kalibr" missile carrier with a potential salvo of up to 8 missiles is in the Mediterranean Sea. Traffic through the Kerch Strait continues. Previous reports of potential Ukrainian maritime drone activity targeting Russian objects remain relevant. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer promised to destroy the "shadow fleet" and that the British will introduce new sanctions against 100 oil tankers.
Air Defense Activity:The Ukrainian General Staff reports the downing of 55 operational-tactical level UAVs and one anti-aircraft system of the enemy yesterday. Air raid alerts were in effect across Ukrainian regions. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the lifting of the threat of attack UAVs.ASTRA reports air raid alerts were in effect across Ukrainian regions all night, including in Kyiv.КМВА reports the lifting of the air raid alert in Kyiv.🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports the lifting of the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Artillery Activity:The Ukrainian General Staff reports over four thousand shellings were carried out by the enemy yesterday.Russian forces conducted 265 artillery shellings in the Kursk region.Олег Синєгубов reports on shelling in Kharkiv Oblast.
Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):
Ceasefire Discussions:Astra reports that the unilaterally adopted three-day ceasefire declared by Putin has ended today.РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, and Оперативний ЗСУ report that Donald Trump has commented on the situation after Putin's effective rejection of his ceasefire idea, expressing optimism about a potential end to the conflict and stating his intention to work with both sides and focus on rebuilding and trade.Russian sources (Rybar, «Зона СВО», Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) interpret Putin's statement on readiness for direct negotiations in Istanbul as a demonstration of Russia's position and highlight their view of Ukrainian violations of ceasefires.РБК-Україна reports that Putin rejected the 30-day ceasefire proposal from May 12th and proposed renewing direct negotiations with Ukraine on May 15th in Istanbul.РБК-Україна also reports that Putin announced a conversation with Turkish President Erdogan regarding the war in Ukraine.ASTRA reports that French President Macron stated that "unconditional ceasefire does not precede negotiations" and viewed Putin's proposal to renew direct talks as a "first step, but insufficient."Операція Z: Военкоры Русской Весны also reports on Macron's comments, emphasizing that he views Putin's proposal as insufficient.Оперативний ЗСУ echoes Macron's sentiment that Putin is delaying and that unconditional ceasefire should not precede negotiations.ТАСС reports on the reaction of Turkish media to Putin's statements, noting interpretations of trust in Turkey and a commitment to Russia's current course.Fighterbomber states the ceasefire has ended and the war continues, expressing hope for negotiations to start tomorrow.Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports Putin offered Kyiv direct negotiations in Istanbul on May 15th without preconditions, presenting it as another chance for Ukraine to preserve its statehood.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Macron's statement, viewing Putin's proposal as insufficient.
Ukraine-US Relations:Donald Trump has commented on the situation after Putin's effective rejection of his ceasefire idea, expressing optimism about a potential end to the conflict and stating his intention to work with both sides and focus on rebuilding and trade.РБК-Україна reports on a discussion by the National Academy of Sciences about Ukrainian rare earth metal reserves and what the US is looking for in Ukraine's subsoil.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Trump welcomed Putin's proposal for direct talks.
Russia-International Relations:Russian sources (Rybar, «Зона СVO», Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) interpret Putin's statement on readiness for direct negotiations in Istanbul as a demonstration of Russia's position. They also continue to engage in information operations surrounding Victory Day and the conflict. РБК-Україна reports that Putin announced a conversation with Turkish President Erdogan regarding the war in Ukraine.Басурин о главнОМ commemorates the 11th anniversary of the DPR.ТАСС reports on the reaction of Turkish media to Putin's statements, noting interpretations of trust in Turkey and a commitment to Russia's current course.WarGonzo commemorates the 11th anniversary of the referendum on self-determination in the DPR.АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer promised to destroy the "shadow fleet" and that the British will introduce new sanctions against 100 oil tankers.ТАСС reports Piskarev's statement about NATO countries' campaign against Russia using foreign agents and facts of desecration of memorials in Europe.
India-Pakistan Conflict: Reports indicate a potential temporary de-escalation with a calm night.
Internal Russian Politics:ТАСС reports on a positive evaluation by the Russian Ministry of Culture of the idea of studying the history of cinema in schools.ASTRA reports on a case of alleged police brutality against a disabled anti-war demonstrator in Moscow.The 11th anniversary of the Donetsk People's Republic is being commemorated by Russian sources.ТАСС reports on a proposal in the State Duma to include OSAGO in the cost of renting electric scooters.ASTRA reports on a resident of Pyatigorsk unhappy with Wagner symbols leading the Victory Day parade.ТАСС reports on the risks of talking to scammers.
Internal Ukrainian Politics: No major updates on internal Ukrainian politics were provided in the latest messages, other than commemoration activities.
French-Ukrainian Relations:ASTRA reports that French President Macron made comments on the ceasefire and Putin's proposal after his visit to Kyiv.Операція Z: Военкоры Русской Весны also reports on Macron's comments, emphasizing that he views Putin's proposal as insufficient.Оперативний ЗСУ echoes Macron's sentiment that Putin is delaying and that unconditional ceasefire should not precede negotiations.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports Macron's statement, viewing Putin's proposal as insufficient.
British-Ukrainian Relations:Басурин о главном reports on a change in leadership for British intelligence MI6.АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer promised to destroy the "shadow fleet" and that the British will introduce new sanctions against 100 oil tankers.
Russia-Turkey Relations:РБК-Україна reports that Putin announced a conversation with Turkish President Erdogan regarding the war in Ukraine.ТАСС reports on the reaction of Turkish media to Putin's statements, noting interpretations of trust in Turkey and a commitment to Russia's current course.
NATO:ТАСС reports Piskarev's statement about NATO countries' campaign against Russia using foreign agents and facts of desecration of memorials in Europe.
Internal Russian Issues (Updated):
Internal Security: Continued reports of security incidents. ASTRA reports on a case of alleged police brutality against a disabled anti-war demonstrator in Moscow on May 9th. This highlights internal dissent and the measures taken by Russian authorities to suppress it. ASTRA reports on a resident of Pyatigorsk unhappy with Wagner symbols leading the Victory Day parade.ТАСС reports on the risks of talking to scammers.
Casualties due to Ukrainian Attacks:ASTRA reports one person was injured as a result of a night Ukrainian attack on Belgorod Oblast, with a drone striking a moving car in the city of Valuyki.
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian forces continue offensive operations, utilizing a high volume of artillery (including MLRS) and kamikaze drones. Employing aviation strikes with guided bombs (including ODAB-1500). Engaging Ukrainian forces across numerous sectors with significant numbers of assaults. Actively engaged in military vehicle repair and maintenance. Russian military bloggers demonstrate the tactical use of drones for probing enemy defenses before engaging with artillery and showcase archival footage of Russian drone strikes. Commemorating the 11th anniversary of the DPR as part of broader political and informational efforts. Utilizing UAVs in attacks on Kyiv Oblast.Utilizing drones in attacks on Belgorod Oblast.Russian military blogger Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show a destroyed Ukrainian BMP-1TS in occupied part of DNR.Russian military bloggers fundraising for drones and signal amplifiers.Воин DV shares a video claiming a Russian Su-34 used an ODAB-1500 to strike an enemy base in Temirovka on May 7th.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian forces liberated the Severny mine north of Chasiv Yar.Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video claiming to show Russian drones using fiber optics.
Domestic Policy:ТАСС reports on a positive evaluation by the Russian Ministry of Culture of the idea of studying the history of cinema in schools.ТАСС reports on a proposal in the State Duma to include OSAGO in the cost of renting electric scooters.ТАСС reports that the head of the search and rescue squad "LisaAlert" discussed the risks to children found alone on the streets.Новости Москвы reports on impending cold weather, rain, and wet snow in Moscow.
Information Operations:Russian military bloggers (Rybar, «Зона СВО», Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Басурин о главнОМ) continue to engage in information operations, providing analysis of the situation, promoting narratives about negotiations and Ukrainian violations, sharing motivational content, and commemorating the DPR anniversary. Филолог в засаде shares links to military-historical content related to WWII, suggesting potential lessons relevant to the current conflict and highlighting documentaries, which contributes to shaping historical narratives.WarGonzo commemorates the 11th anniversary of the referendum on self-determination in the DPR.ASTRA reports on a resident of Pyatigorsk unhappy with Wagner symbols leading the Victory Day parade.ТАСС reports Piskarev's statement about NATO countries' campaign against Russia using foreign agents and facts of desecration of memorials in Europe.
Public Support for the Military: Fundraising efforts continue. «Зона СВО» shares a motivational photo and caption.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares photos of Russian soldiers repairing their vehicles, highlighting ongoing logistical and maintenance activities.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is fundraising for a Mavic 3 Pro drone and a signal amplifier for a soldier.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is selling backpacks with VDV logos, indicating ongoing support and merchandising efforts.ASTRA reports on a resident of Pyatigorsk unhappy with Wagner symbols leading the Victory Day parade.ТАСС reports Piskarev's statement about NATO countries' campaign against Russia using foreign agents and facts of desecration of memorials in Europe, potentially aimed at galvanizing public support against perceived external threats.
Social Issues:ТАСС reports that the head of the search and rescue squad "LisaAlert" discussed the risks to children found alone on the streets.
Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)
Civilian Impact: Russian aviation strikes were carried out in areas of Cherneve (Sumy Oblast), Myrne, Sukhyi Yar, Piddubne, Komar (Donetsk Oblast), Novodarivka, Malynivka, Zaliznychne (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), and Mykolaivka (Kherson Oblast). Оперативний ЗСУ reports that a Russian UAV attack in Kyiv Oblast injured a man and damaged houses.ASTRA reports one person was injured as a result of a night Ukrainian drone attack on Belgorod Oblast.ASTRA reports that one person was injured in Kyiv Oblast as a result of the Russian attack.РБК-Україна confirms the Russian drone attack on Kyiv Oblast causing injury.Олег Синєгубов reports on civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast due to Russian shelling and drone attacks.Images shared by the Ukrainian General Staff and Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration call for a national moment of silence to honor those killed in the war.🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 calls for a minute of silence daily at 9:00.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a Russian "self-shooting" incident in Sumy Oblast.
Military Support:STERNENKO highlights a significant need and fundraising efforts for 3500 FPV drones for the Ukrainian military. This indicates a critical requirement for these assets on the front lines and ongoing efforts to provide them through public support. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is fundraising for a Mavic 3 Pro drone and a signal amplifier for a soldier.STERNENKO is fundraising for a drone team called "Apachi".
Commemoration:Kyiv City Military Administration is commemorating a fallen defender.The Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration shared a message for Mother's Day, highlighting the role of mothers during the war.🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 calls for a minute of silence daily at 9:00.Ukrainian General Staff shares a message for Mother's Day, emphasizing the strength and resilience of Ukrainian women.
Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)
Russia: Continues offensive operations, utilizing a high volume of artillery (including MLRS) and kamikaze drones. Employing aviation strikes with guided bombs (including ODAB-1500). Engaging Ukrainian forces across numerous sectors with significant numbers of assaults. Actively engaged in military vehicle repair and maintenance. Russian military bloggers demonstrate the tactical use of drones for probing enemy defenses before engaging with artillery and showcase archival footage of Russian drone strikes. Commemorating the 11th anniversary of the DPR as part of broader political and informational efforts. Utilizing UAVs in attacks on Kyiv Oblast.Utilizing drones in attacks on Belgorod Oblast.Russian military blogger Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show a destroyed Ukrainian BMP-1TS in occupied part of DNR.Russian military bloggers fundraising for drones and signal amplifiers.Воин DV shares a video claiming a Russian Su-34 used an ODAB-1500 to strike an enemy base in Temirovka on May 7th.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian forces liberated the Severny mine north of Chasiv Yar.Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video claiming to show Russian drones using fiber optics.
Ukraine: Employing defensive and limited offensive operations, resisting numerous Russian assaults across multiple axes. Utilizing air defense to counter Russian drones and aircraft. Conducting strikes on enemy personnel and equipment concentrations, artillery, radar stations, and other important objects. Providing updated estimates of Russian losses. Ukrainian forces repelled a significant number of Russian attacks across multiple sectors, indicating effective defensive capabilities.Conducting drone attacks in Russian border regions.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of "Pirates" from the 12th Azov Brigade discussing their assault and clearing operations, providing insight into Ukrainian tactics.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a Russian "self-shooting" incident in Sumy Oblast.STERNENKO is fundraising for a drone team called "Apachi" and shares a video of a successful FPV strike, demonstrating tactical effectiveness.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the Ukrainian Defense Forces completely destroyed the Russian radio-technical plant "Strela" in Bryansk Oblast, indicating a successful long-range strike capability.
India/Pakistan: A temporary lull in reported military activity in North India suggests a potential pause or de-escalation after recent reported operations.
Western PMCs: Unverified reports of alleged presence and activity of Western PMCs in border regions previously.
Strategic Considerations (Updated)
The extensive combat activity reported by the Ukrainian General Staff across numerous sectors, including a high number of engagements, artillery shellings, and drone use, directly contradicts the notion of a general ceasefire and underscores the continued high intensity of the conflict. Astra's report on the end of the unilaterally declared Russian ceasefire confirms the return to full operational tempo.STERNENKO emphasizing that Russians are planning and have not stopped offensives reinforces this.Fighterbomber stating the ceasefire has ended and the war continues confirms this from a Russian perspective.
The significant number of Russian personnel and equipment losses reported by the Ukrainian General Staff, with consistent daily increases, indicates ongoing attrition of Russian forces. This data is crucial for assessing the effectiveness of Ukrainian operations and the sustainability of Russian offensive efforts.
The continued widespread use of guided aerial bombs and kamikaze drones by Russia, as highlighted by the Ukrainian General Staff's report on the volume of these attacks, poses a persistent threat across Ukraine and requires continued focus on air defense capabilities and strategies to counter these systems. Russian UAV attacks on Kyiv Oblast causing injuries and damage highlight the continued threat to civilian areas.Олег Синєгубов's report on civilian casualties and damage in Kharkiv Oblast further underscores the impact of these strikes.Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 sharing a video claiming to show Russian drones using fiber optics suggests potential Russian efforts to enhance drone capabilities and resilience to countermeasures.
Donald Trump's continued commentary on a potential end to the conflict and a shift in the US focus to rebuilding and trade signals ongoing high-level international interest in a negotiated solution. His statement about working with both sides suggests a potential openness to various diplomatic avenues. His welcoming of Putin's proposal for direct talks is a notable development.
Russian sources' interpretation of recent Russian diplomatic moves and proposals as a demonstration of their readiness for negotiations, while simultaneously emphasizing alleged Ukrainian violations and continued fighting, is a clear information operation aimed at positioning Russia favorably in the diplomatic landscape and shifting blame for the lack of progress. Their assertion that any "freeze" would occur along the current line of contact reinforces their objective of consolidating territorial gains. Putin rejecting the 30-day ceasefire and proposing direct talks on May 15th in Istanbul, along with announcing a conversation with Erdogan, indicates Russia is pursuing a specific diplomatic path, likely on its own terms.Turkish media's reaction to Putin's statements suggests an international perception of Russia's diplomatic maneuvering.Fighterbomber expressing hope for negotiations to start tomorrow indicates a desire for talks within some Russian circles.Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition framing Putin's proposal as a chance for Ukraine to preserve statehood is a clear attempt to influence Ukrainian decision-making.
The reported case of alleged police brutality against an anti-war demonstrator in Moscow highlights internal dissent within Russia and the measures taken by the authorities to suppress it. This could indicate potential underlying social tensions related to the conflict, although its direct impact on military operations is likely limited in the short term. ASTRA's report on a resident of Pyatigorsk unhappy with Wagner symbols in the Victory Day parade also points to potential internal disagreements regarding the conflict and its participants.
The commemoration of the 11th anniversary of the Donetsk People's Republic by Russian sources is a continuation of information operations aimed at legitimizing the self-proclaimed republic and reinforcing narratives of self-determination and integration with Russia. WarGonzo commemorating the referendum on self-determination reinforces this information operation.
The ongoing logistical and maintenance activities within the Russian military, as evidenced by photos of soldiers repairing vehicles, underscore the importance of these functions in sustaining military operations and highlight potential areas of vulnerability or challenge for Russian forces.
A Ukrainian drone attack in Belgorod Oblast causing civilian injury demonstrates Ukraine's capability to strike targets within Russia, potentially aiming to pressure Russian authorities and public, or disrupt logistical/military assets.
French President Macron's comments on the ceasefire and negotiations, particularly his view that unconditional ceasefire doesn't precede talks and that Putin's proposal is insufficient, indicate a continued Western stance favoring a more comprehensive peace process and likely skepticism towards Russia's immediate intentions.
The discussion about Ukraine's rare earth metals and potential US interest highlights the strategic importance of natural resources in the context of the conflict and potential post-conflict economic and geopolitical dynamics.
The reported change in British intelligence leadership could have long-term implications for intelligence sharing and strategic assessments related to the conflict.АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА's report on UK sanctions targeting Russia's "shadow fleet" indicates continued economic pressure on Russia's ability to fund the war, with potential strategic impact on their revenue and logistics.
The highlighted need and fundraising efforts for FPV drones for Ukrainian forces underscore the critical role of these assets in the current conflict and the ongoing reliance on public and private support for military capabilities.Russian military bloggers also fundraising for drones indicates the importance of these assets for both sides.
Images shared by the Ukrainian General Staff and Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration highlight the human cost of the war and serve as a strategic tool for national remembrance and potentially garnering international sympathy.The commemoration of a fallen defender by the Kyiv City Military Administration serves a similar purpose.
The message from the Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration for Mother's Day highlights the impact of the conflict on families and emphasizes the resilience of Ukrainian women, which is important for maintaining social cohesion and morale.Ukrainian General Staff also highlighting the strength of Ukrainian women on Mother's Day reinforces this.
Russian military bloggers showcasing alleged successful strikes using powerful munitions like the ODAB-1500 is a form of information operation aimed at demonstrating Russian capabilities and effectiveness.Sharing videos of destroyed Ukrainian equipment serves a similar purpose.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС sharing videos of Ukrainian forces discussing their operations can be a morale booster and recruitment tool.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС sharing a video of a Russian "self-shooting" incident is likely intended to demoralize Russian forces and highlight their perceived incompetence.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting the destruction of the Russian radio-technical plant "Strela" in Bryansk Oblast, if confirmed, represents a significant strategic success for Ukraine in targeting Russia's military-industrial complex and degrading their capabilities.
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claiming Russian forces liberated the Severny mine north of Chasiv Yar, if true, would indicate a tactical advance in a key contested area, potentially impacting the overall situation around Chasiv Yar.
Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.
