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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-05-11 05:16:43Z
9 months ago
Previous (2025-05-11 04:46:43Z)

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 11, 2025, 05:16 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment continues to be defined by intense ground combat across multiple axes, particularly in eastern and southern Ukraine, and the persistent, high-intensity fighting in the Kursk border region. Russian forces continue extensive aerial and drone activity, including the use of guided aerial bombs and a high volume of FPV drone and artillery strikes. Diplomatically, the focus remains on the possibility of peace negotiations, with Donald Trump expressing renewed optimism about a potential end to the conflict and a shift in the US focus to rebuilding and trade, even as Russian sources interpret recent Russian proposals and diplomatic engagements as a demonstration of their readiness for negotiations on their terms. The declared Russian ceasefire for Victory Day has largely passed, with Ukrainian and Russian sources confirming ongoing fighting and violations. Internally, both sides are engaged in information operations and efforts to maintain morale and address internal issues. New information confirms significant combat engagements and aerial/artillery strikes across key sectors including Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Huliaipilskyi, Orikhiv, and Dnipro directions, as reported by the Ukrainian General Staff. Updated estimates of Russian losses are provided, indicating continued attrition. Astra reports the end of the unilaterally declared Russian ceasefire and highlights ongoing air raid alerts across Ukraine. Russian military bloggers like Rybar and WarGonzo provide their analysis of the current situation, emphasizing ongoing fighting despite the ceasefire and interpreting recent Russian diplomatic moves as strategic positioning. A report of alleged police brutality against an anti-war demonstrator in Moscow highlights internal dissent and security measures in Russia.

Key updates from the latest messages include:

  • Continued Intense Ground Combat and Disregard for Ceasefire (Confirmed by both sides): The Ukrainian General Staff reports 161 combat engagements were recorded yesterday (May 10th). Significant fighting continues across numerous sectors:
    • Kharkiv Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled three attacks near Vovchansk, Malaya Shapkivka, and Kamianka. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
    • Kupyansk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled three attacks near Kіndrashіvka, Syn'kіvka, and Zagryzove. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
    • Lyman Direction: Russian forces attacked eight times, attempting to advance towards Cherneshchyna, Olhivka, Ridkodub, Nove, Zelena Dolyna, Yampolivka, and Kopanky. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
    • Siversk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled four Russian attacks. Russian units attempted to advance towards Gryhorivka and Bilohorivka. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
    • Kramatorsk Direction: Nine combat clashes were recorded near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Chasiv Yar, Bila Hora, Maiske, and Predtechine. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
    • Toretsk Direction: Russian forces carried out 12 attacks in the areas of Druzhba, Toretsk, Shcherbinka, and towards Dyliivka. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
    • Pokrovsk Direction: Ukrainian defenders stopped 60 assault and offensive actions of the aggressor towards Nova Poltavka, Myroliubivka, Kotliarivka, Myrny, Zorya, Malynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Dachensk, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Novoserhiivka, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Preobrazhenka, and Andriiivka. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
    • Novopavlivka Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled 13 enemy attacks near Kostyantynopil, Vilne Pole, Pryvilne, Bahtyr, Shevchenko, and Novopil. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
    • Huliaipilskyi Direction: Russian forces conducted 13 attacks in the areas of Novopil and Novosilka. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
    • Orikhiv Direction: Russian forces conducted two unsuccessful attacks in the area of Stepove and towards Novodanylivka. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
    • Dnipro (Kherson) Direction: Russian forces conducted three unsuccessful attempts to advance. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
    • Kursk Direction: 25 combat clashes of varying intensity were recorded yesterday. Russian forces also launched 18 airstrikes using 28 guided aerial bombs and conducted 265 artillery shellings, including three from MLRS. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
    • Volyn and Polissya Directions: No signs of enemy offensive group formation detected. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
  • End of Russian Unilateral Ceasefire and Continued Alerts: Astra reports that the unilaterally adopted three-day ceasefire declared by Putin has ended today. ASTRA also reports that air raid alerts were in effect across Ukrainian regions all night, including in Kyiv. КМВА reports the lifting of the air raid alert in Kyiv. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports the lifting of the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This confirms the non-observance of a ceasefire in many areas. (ASTRA, КМВА, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)
  • Updated Estimated Russian Losses: The Ukrainian General Staff reports estimated total Russian combat losses from February 24, 2022, to May 11, 2025:
    • Personnel: ~965,890 (+1310 in the last day)
    • Tanks: 10792 (+2)
    • Troop-carrying AFVs: 22446 (+6)
    • Artillery Systems: 27670 (+33)
    • MLRS: 1381 (+1)
    • Anti-aircraft Systems: 1159 (+1)
    • UAV operational-tactical level: 35537 (+55)
    • Vehicles & Fuel Tanks: 47947 (+117)
    • Special Equipment: 3878 (+3)
    • Other categories (Aircraft, Helicopters, Cruise Missiles, Warships/Boats, Submarines) remain unchanged from the previous report. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports that 1310 occupiers were eliminated yesterday. These figures indicate continued significant attrition of Russian forces. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
  • Continued Russian Aerial and Drone Activity: The Ukrainian General Staff reports that over four thousand shellings were carried out by the enemy yesterday, including 85 from MLRS, and 2470 kamikaze drones were used. 63 aviation strikes were conducted, with 96 guided bombs dropped. Russian aviation strikes were carried out in the areas of Cherneve (Sumy Oblast), Myrne, Sukhyi Yar, Piddubne, Komar (Donetsk Oblast), Novodarivka, Malynivka, Zaliznychne (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), and Mykolaivka (Kherson Oblast). (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
  • Ukrainian Strikes and Engagements: Over the past day, Ukrainian aviation, missile troops, and artillery struck nine areas of personnel and equipment concentration, an artillery piece, a radar station, and another important enemy object. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
  • Donald Trump's Continued Commentary on Peace: РБК-Україна and STERNENKO report that Donald Trump has made a statement following Putin's effective rejection of his ceasefire idea from May 12th. Trump tweeted about a "potentially great day for Russia and Ukraine," expressing hope for an end to the "endless 'blood bath'" and emphasizing the potential to save hundreds of thousands of lives. He stated he would continue to work with both sides and that the US wants to focus on "Rebuilding and Trade." He also mentioned a "BIG week upcoming!". Оперативний ЗСУ also shares and comments on Trump's statement. This indicates continued US interest in a negotiated solution and a potential shift in focus for the US. (РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ)
  • Russian Perspective on Negotiations and the Situation: Rybar and «Зона СВО» provide their analytical summaries of the situation. They view the end of the 80th-anniversary week of Victory as marked by official explanations of its purpose. They highlight Putin's statement on the readiness for direct negotiations with Kyiv in Istanbul without preconditions, interpreting it as a message to the US and a demonstration of Russia's willingness to negotiate. However, they emphasize what they see as Ukrainian violations of the declared Russian ceasefire and continued fighting in border areas and other fronts. They also mention the India-Pakistan conflict as an example of nuclear powers in conflict and the recent visits of Western leaders to Kyiv as evidence of the "coalition of the determined" supporting the continuation of the war. They conclude that Moscow is trying to enter negotiations from a stronger position and that any potential "freeze" would occur along the current line of contact, while stating that all Russian-declared ceasefires have ended. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 echoes the sentiment that Putin's proposal is a demonstration to the world that the "Kyiv junta" will not negotiate on Russian terms as long as arms supplies continue, suggesting Western enrichment from the conflict. (Рыбарь, «Зона СВО», Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
  • Russian Military Morale and Logistics: «Зона СВО» shares a motivational photo and caption for the morning, emphasizing strength in not giving up. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares photos of Russian soldiers repairing their vehicles, highlighting ongoing logistical and maintenance activities. («Зона СВО», Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
  • Russian Domestic Policy: ТАСС reports on a positive evaluation by the Russian Ministry of Culture of the idea of studying the history of cinema in schools, framed within national pride. This is a non-military domestic development. (ТАСС)
  • Internal Russian Incident: ASTRA reports on a case of alleged police brutality against a disabled anti-war demonstrator in Moscow on May 9th, who was reportedly beaten after holding a "No to War" poster and was held overnight before being released with suspicion of a head injury. This highlights internal dissent and the measures taken by Russian authorities to suppress it. (ASTRA)
  • Commemoration of DPR Anniversary: Басурин о главном shares a message celebrating the 11th anniversary of the Donetsk People's Republic, framing it as a day of freedom from "violent Ukrainization and Ukrainian nationalism" and a return to Russia. This is a clear information operation reinforcing the narrative of self-determination and integration with Russia. (Басурин о главнОМ)

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

  • Pokrovsk Direction: Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat, with Ukrainian forces stopping 60 assault and offensive actions of the aggressor towards numerous settlements. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
  • Kursk Oblast (Russia) / Sumy Oblast (Ukraine Border): Continued high-intensity fighting persists, with 25 combat clashes recorded yesterday. Russian forces also launched 18 airstrikes using 28 guided aerial bombs and conducted 265 artillery shellings, including three from MLRS. Russian aviation strikes were also carried out in the Cherneve area of Sumy Oblast. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
  • Donetsk Oblast (including Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Myrne, Sukhyi Yar, Piddubne, Komar, Novopoltavka, Myroliubivka, Kotliarivka, Myrny, Zorya, Malynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Dachensk, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Novoserhiivka, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriiivka, Kostyantynopil, Vilne Pole, Pryvilne, Bahtyr, Shevchenko, Novopil, Cherneshchyna, Olhivka, Ridkodub, Nove, Zelena Dolyna, Yampolivka, Kopanky, Gryhorivka, Bilohorivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Chasiv Yar, Bila Hora, Maiske, Predtechine, Druzhba, Toretsk, Shcherbinka, Dyliivka): Continues to be a primary focus of intense ground combat, with significant numbers of engagements reported across multiple directions, including Pokrovsk (60), Novopavlivka (13), Lyman (8), Siversk (4), Kramatorsk (9), and Toretsk (12). Russian aviation strikes targeted Myrne, Sukhyi Yar, Piddubne, and Komar. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
  • Kharkiv Direction (including Vovchansk, Malaya Shapkivka, Kamianka): Ukrainian forces repelled three enemy attacks. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
  • Kupyansk Direction (including Kіndrashіvka, Syn'kіvka, Zagryzove): Ukrainian forces repelled three enemy attacks. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
  • Huliaipilskyi Direction (including Novopil, Novosilka): Russian forces conducted 13 attacks. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
  • Orikhiv Direction (including Stepove, Novodanylivka): Russian forces conducted two unsuccessful attacks. Russian aviation strikes targeted Novodarivka, Malynivka, and Zaliznychne. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
  • Dnipro (Kherson) Direction (including Mykolaivka): Russian forces conducted three unsuccessful attempts to advance. Russian aviation strikes targeted Mykolaivka. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
  • India-Pakistan Border Region / North India: Reports indicate a potential temporary de-escalation with a calm night. (ТАСС)
  • Donetsk People's Republic: Commemorating its 11th anniversary. (Басурин о главнОМ)
  • Moscow (Russia): Location of a reported incident of alleged police brutality against an anti-war demonstrator. (ASTRA)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

  • Drone Activity: Extensive drone activity continues on both sides. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 2470 kamikaze drones were used by the enemy yesterday. Previous reports indicate widespread Russian drone activity across multiple Ukrainian oblasts, particularly near Zhytomyr and in Kyiv Oblast, with detailed tracking of multi-directional movements. The showcases of Russian drone operations for reconnaissance and targeting and archival footage of Russian drone strikes continue to be shared by Russian military bloggers. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Воин DV)
  • Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): The Ukrainian General Staff reports 96 guided bombs were dropped by the enemy yesterday. Russian aviation used 28 guided aerial bombs in the Kursk region. Russian aviation strikes targeted Cherneve (Sumy Oblast), Myrne, Sukhyi Yar, Piddubne, Komar (Donetsk Oblast), Novodarivka, Malynivka, Zaliznychne (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), and Mykolaivka (Kherson Oblast). (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
  • Missile Activity: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 85 shellings from MLRS were carried out by the enemy yesterday. Russian forces conducted three artillery shellings from MLRS in the Kursk region. Previous reports of missile threats remain relevant. The presence of a "Kalibr" carrier in the Mediterranean continues to pose a potential threat. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, РБК-Україна)
  • Aviation Activity: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 63 aviation strikes were conducted by the enemy yesterday. Russian aviation strikes were carried out in the areas of Cherneve (Sumy Oblast), Myrne, Sukhyi Yar, Piddubne, Komar (Donetsk Oblast), Novodarivka, Malynivka, Zaliznychne (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), and Mykolaivka (Kherson Oblast). Russian aviation is reportedly conducting airstrikes in several settlements of Sumy Oblast. Activity of enemy tactical aviation was reported on the southeastern and northeastern directions previously. The Ukrainian Air Force previously reported activity of Russian tactical aviation on the northeastern direction, with a threat of aerial guided missile use for frontline regions. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Liveuamap Source, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна)
  • Naval Activity: No Russian missile carriers were reported present in the Black or Azov Seas previously. One "Kalibr" missile carrier with a potential salvo of up to 8 missiles is in the Mediterranean Sea. Traffic through the Kerch Strait continues. Previous reports of potential Ukrainian maritime drone activity targeting Russian objects remain relevant. (РБК-Україна, Рыбарь)
  • Air Defense Activity: The Ukrainian General Staff reports the downing of 55 operational-tactical level UAVs and one anti-aircraft system of the enemy yesterday. Air raid alerts were in effect across Ukrainian regions. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ASTRA)
  • Artillery Activity: The Ukrainian General Staff reports over four thousand shellings were carried out by the enemy yesterday. Russian forces conducted 265 artillery shellings in the Kursk region. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

  • Ceasefire Discussions: Astra reports that the unilaterally adopted three-day ceasefire declared by Putin has ended today. РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, and Оперативний ЗСУ report that Donald Trump has commented on the situation after Putin's effective rejection of his ceasefire idea, expressing optimism about a potential end to the conflict and stating his intention to work with both sides. Russian sources (Rybar, «Зона СВО», Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) interpret Putin's statement on readiness for direct negotiations in Istanbul as a demonstration of Russia's position and highlight their view of Ukrainian violations of ceasefires. (ASTRA, РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, Рыбарь, «Зона СВО», Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
  • Ukraine-US Relations: Donald Trump has commented on the situation after Putin's effective rejection of his ceasefire idea, expressing optimism about a potential end to the conflict and stating his intention to work with both sides and focus on rebuilding and trade. (РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ)
  • Russia-International Relations: Russian sources (Rybar, «Зона СВО», Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) interpret Putin's statement on readiness for direct negotiations in Istanbul as a demonstration of Russia's position. They also continue to engage in information operations surrounding Victory Day and the conflict. (Рыбарь, «Зона СВО», Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Басурин о главнОМ)
  • India-Pakistan Conflict: Reports indicate a potential temporary de-escalation with a calm night. (ТАСС)
  • Internal Russian Politics: ТАСС reports on a positive evaluation by the Russian Ministry of Culture of the idea of studying the history of cinema in schools. ASTRA reports on a case of alleged police brutality against a disabled anti-war demonstrator in Moscow. The 11th anniversary of the Donetsk People's Republic is being commemorated by Russian sources. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Басурин о главнОМ)
  • Internal Ukrainian Politics: No major updates on internal Ukrainian politics were provided in the latest messages.

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

  • Information Operations: Russian military bloggers (Rybar, «Зона СВО», Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Басурин о главнОМ) continue to engage in information operations, providing analysis of the situation, promoting narratives about negotiations and Ukrainian violations, sharing motivational content, and commemorating the DPR anniversary. (Рыбарь, «Зона СВО», Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Басурин о главнОМ)
  • Military Morale and Logistics: «Зона СВО» shares a motivational photo and caption. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares photos of Russian soldiers repairing their vehicles, highlighting ongoing logistical and maintenance activities. («Зона СВО», Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
  • Domestic Policy: ТАСС reports on a positive evaluation by the Russian Ministry of Culture of the idea of studying the history of cinema in schools. (ТАСС)
  • Internal Security: ASTRA reports on a case of alleged police brutality against a disabled anti-war demonstrator in Moscow on May 9th. This highlights internal dissent and the measures taken by Russian authorities to suppress it. (ASTRA)

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

  • Civilian Impact: Russian aviation strikes were carried out in areas of Cherneve (Sumy Oblast), Myrne, Sukhyi Yar, Piddubne, Komar (Donetsk Oblast), Novodarivka, Malynivka, Zaliznychne (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), and Mykolaivka (Kherson Oblast). (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
  • Military Support: No major updates on military support were provided in the latest messages.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

  • Russia: Continues offensive operations, utilizing a high volume of artillery (including MLRS) and kamikaze drones. Employing aviation strikes with guided bombs. Engaging Ukrainian forces across numerous sectors with significant numbers of assaults. Actively engaged in military vehicle repair and maintenance. Russian military bloggers demonstrate the tactical use of drones for probing enemy defenses before engaging with artillery and showcase archival drone footage. Commemorating the 11th anniversary of the DPR as part of broader political and informational efforts. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Рыбарь, «Зона СВО», Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Басурин о главнОМ, Colonelcassad, Воин DV)
  • Ukraine: Employing defensive and limited offensive operations, resisting numerous Russian assaults across multiple axes. Utilizing air defense to counter Russian drones and aircraft. Conducting strikes on enemy personnel and equipment concentrations, artillery, radar stations, and other important objects. Providing updated estimates of Russian losses. Ukrainian forces repelled a significant number of Russian attacks across multiple sectors, indicating effective defensive capabilities. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
  • India/Pakistan: A temporary lull in reported military activity in North India suggests a potential pause or de-escalation after recent reported operations. (ТАСС)

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

  • The extensive combat activity reported by the Ukrainian General Staff across numerous sectors, including a high number of engagements, artillery shellings, and drone use, directly contradicts the notion of a general ceasefire and underscores the continued high intensity of the conflict. Astra's report on the end of the unilaterally declared Russian ceasefire confirms the return to full operational tempo.
  • The significant number of Russian personnel and equipment losses reported by the Ukrainian General Staff, with consistent daily increases, indicates ongoing attrition of Russian forces. This data is crucial for assessing the effectiveness of Ukrainian operations and the sustainability of Russian offensive efforts.
  • The continued widespread use of guided aerial bombs and kamikaze drones by Russia, as highlighted by the Ukrainian General Staff's report on the volume of these attacks, poses a persistent threat across Ukraine and requires continued focus on air defense capabilities and strategies to counter these systems.
  • Donald Trump's continued commentary on a potential end to the conflict and a shift in the US focus to rebuilding and trade signals ongoing high-level international interest in a negotiated solution. His statement about working with both sides suggests a potential openness to various diplomatic avenues.
  • Russian sources' interpretation of recent Russian diplomatic moves and proposals as a demonstration of their readiness for negotiations, while simultaneously emphasizing alleged Ukrainian violations and continued fighting, is a clear information operation aimed at positioning Russia favorably in the diplomatic landscape and shifting blame for the lack of progress. Their assertion that any "freeze" would occur along the current line of contact reinforces their objective of consolidating territorial gains.
  • The reported case of alleged police brutality against an anti-war demonstrator in Moscow highlights internal dissent within Russia and the measures taken by the authorities to suppress it. This could indicate potential underlying social tensions related to the conflict, although its direct impact on military operations is likely limited in the short term.
  • The commemoration of the 11th anniversary of the Donetsk People's Republic by Russian sources is a continuation of information operations aimed at legitimizing the self-proclaimed republic and reinforcing narratives of self-determination and integration with Russia.
  • The ongoing logistical and maintenance activities within the Russian military, as evidenced by photos of soldiers repairing vehicles, underscore the importance of these functions in sustaining military operations and highlight potential areas of vulnerability or challenge for Russian forces.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Previous (2025-05-11 04:46:43Z)

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