Sitrep 2025-05-10 16:41:17

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 10, 2025, 16:40 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment continues to be defined by intense ground combat across multiple axes, persistent Russian aerial and drone activity, and a complex information war. While a Russian-declared ceasefire for Victory Day has been largely disregarded, diplomatic discussions surrounding potential ceasefires and peace negotiations persist, with contrasting positions presented by Ukraine and Russia. The escalation between India and Pakistan remains a significant regional development, with reported breaches of a recently announced ceasefire, continued exchanges of fire, and accusations of violations.

Significant updates from the latest messages include:

Continued Escalation in India-Pakistan Conflict: Multiple sources confirm that explosions and shooting are again being reported in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, just hours after a claimed ceasefire between India and Pakistan. The Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir, Omar Abdullah, expressed surprise and concern, and videos of air defense activity in the region are circulating online. India is reportedly accusing Pakistan of violating the ceasefire. This indicates a significant breakdown of the attempted de-escalation and a return to hostilities.
Russian Claims of Advances on the Yuzhno-Donetsk Direction: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims that Russian forces have advanced and consolidated their positions in the settlement of Bogatyr on the Yuzhno-Donetsk direction, occupying approximately a third of the village. They state that enemy resources have also acknowledged this advance. This suggests continued Russian offensive efforts and claimed territorial gains in this area.
Russian Information Operation - "Trump's Ceasefire" Failure in India-Pakistan Conflict: Multiple Russian sources, including Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns, are using the renewed hostilities in the India-Pakistan conflict to mockingly refer to the recently announced ceasefire as "Trump's ceasefire" and highlight its failure. This is a clear information operation aiming to undermine the effectiveness of diplomatic efforts, particularly those potentially involving the US, and portray a lack of control or influence by certain international actors. Alex Parker Returns uses a quote from an "Indian minister" (possibly fictional or misrepresented) to further push this narrative.
Russian Defence Minister Holds Talks with Malian Defence Minister: The Russian Ministry of Defence reports a meeting between Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov and the Minister of Defence and Veterans Affairs of Mali, Corps General Sadio Camara. The focus of the discussion was on bilateral military cooperation. The Malian Minister reportedly congratulated Belousov on the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War and expressed support for Russia's "special military operation," stating that the leadership and people of Sahel support Russia in the fight against fascism. This highlights Russia's continued diplomatic and military engagement in Africa and the alignment of certain African nations with Russia's stance on the conflict in Ukraine, framed in the context of combating "fascism."
Russian Analysis of Pressure on "Shadow Fleet": Rybar provides an analysis of increased pressure from the UK and other Western countries on Russia's "shadow fleet" of oil tankers. The analysis details instances of alleged harassment, detention, and confiscation of Russian vessels and cargo. It argues that this is a systematic campaign to undermine Russia's oil export revenues. The analysis concludes that the only way to ensure the security of oil exports is through a naval presence, suggesting the need for increased naval activity and unconventional tactics to protect Russian shipping. This highlights the economic impact of Western sanctions and the strategic importance of maritime trade for Russia.
Detention of a Ukrainian Combat Battalion Commander by SBU on Corruption Charges: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has detained a battalion commander who was allegedly extorting "combat" payments from his subordinates. He is accused of falsely documenting soldiers as being on combat missions to secure extra payments, then demanding a portion of the funds. The report claims he made almost a million hryvnias in a month through this scheme and threatened to send soldiers to the front lines ("on zero") if they refused to pay. This indicates ongoing efforts within Ukraine to address corruption within the military, even at the command level, and underscores the potential for such issues to impact troop morale and effectiveness.
Ukrainian Claim of Aerial Strike on Russian UAV Control Point in Kursk Oblast: Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming an aerial strike using "two French baguettes" (likely a euphemism for precision-guided munitions or bombs delivered by aircraft) on a Russian UAV control point in Tyotkino, Kursk Oblast. This indicates continued Ukrainian targeting of Russian military infrastructure in border regions and the alleged use of Western-provided weapons or assistance in these strikes.
Ukrainian Claim of Destroying Russian Reconnaissance and Sabotage Group Near Kurakhove: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video claiming that a Russian reconnaissance and sabotage group that infiltrated a village near Kurakhove at night was completely destroyed by Ukrainian forces using several drones. This highlights continued Russian attempts to conduct infiltration operations and the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone units in countering them.
Russian Information Operation - Poem About a Veteran: Басурин о главном shares a video of a poem about a veteran, describing it as a "very touching work." This is likely intended to evoke patriotic sentiment and reinforce the narrative of honoring veterans, potentially linking the historical context to the current conflict.
Russian Military Bloggers Continuing Fundraising for Drones: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА is openly requesting donations from the public to purchase "maviks" (DJI Mavic drones) for Russian fighters on the Donetsk direction. They state they successfully acquired drones for fighters in the Donetsk direction previously. This highlights the ongoing reliance on public fundraising for essential military equipment, particularly drones, despite official military resources, and suggests continued needs at the tactical level.
Russian Information Operation - Promoting a Film About a Wounded Veteran: Colonelcassad shares a video promoting a film titled "I Know How to Live" about a Russian veteran who lost limbs but is pursuing a sports dream. The video includes an interaction with Dmitry Medvedev. This is a clear information operation effort aimed at showcasing the resilience of Russian soldiers, garnering sympathy, and potentially encouraging support for veterans' rehabilitation and integration into society. It also features a high-profile political figure.
Reported Detention of Teenagers in Belarus for Perceived Disrespect to Victory Day Salute: ASTRA reports the detention of teenagers in Mogilev, Belarus, for showing a middle finger towards a Victory Day salute and turning their backs on it in a TikTok video. Their parents will also reportedly face punishment. This highlights the stringent control over public expression and behavior related to sensitive political and historical events in Belarus, a close ally of Russia. It also indicates the use of social media monitoring and potential crackdowns on perceived dissent, framed in the context of disrespecting a national holiday and its associated symbolism.
Slovak MEP Calls for Negotiations with Russia: TASS reports that a Member of the European Parliament from Slovakia, Ľuboš Blaha, stated that the EU will soon have to realize that the Ukrainian conflict cannot be resolved on the battlefield and that negotiations with Russia are necessary to avoid losing everything. This highlights differing views within the EU regarding the approach to the conflict and a call for a diplomatic resolution from a Slovak political figure, aligning with the stance of the Slovak Prime Minister.
Putin Comments on Humanitarian Situation in Gaza: TASS reports that Vladimir Putin stated that the Gaza Strip is experiencing a real humanitarian catastrophe, exacerbated by the ban on supplying electricity and essential goods. He mentioned Russia is providing humanitarian aid. This comment, made during a meeting with the President of Palestine, highlights Russia's engagement with the situation in the Middle East and its framing of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
Russian Information Operation - Visual Propaganda of Russian Aviation: Fighterbomber shares a photo of a Russian fighter jet in flight with a Soviet flag visible on the ground. The caption simply says "Beautiful." This is a form of visual propaganda aimed at evoking patriotic feelings and linking current Russian military capabilities to historical Soviet military symbols.
US and China Hold Talks on Trade War De-escalation: Reuters, via РБК-Україна, reports that the US and China held their first meeting in Geneva to discuss de-escalation of the trade war. This indicates ongoing diplomatic engagement between the two major global powers on economic issues, which could have broader implications for international relations and the global economy.
Russian Propaganda Claiming Control of Parts of Bogatyr: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that Russian forces of the "Vostok" grouping have dropped over 600 leaflets on Ukrainian positions in the settlement of Bogatyr, stating that the southern and southeastern parts of the settlement are under their control and offering instructions on how Ukrainian soldiers can "live." This is a form of psychological warfare aimed at demoralizing Ukrainian forces and encouraging surrender, directly linked to their claims of territorial control in the area.
Russian Propaganda - Monument Restoration in Kherson Oblast: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo claiming that a monument to the Unknown Soldier has been completely restored in Kherson Oblast, with damaged parts recreated using a 3D printer. This is an information operation aimed at showcasing Russian efforts to restore infrastructure and cultural sites in occupied territories, presenting a narrative of rebuilding and care, potentially to counter accusations of destruction and neglect.
Peskov States Russia is Open to Dialogue But Pressure is Useless: TASS reports that Peskov stated Russia is open to dialogue on a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine but that applying pressure on Moscow is useless. This reiterates Russia's stated position on negotiations, framing them as willing to engage but rejecting any attempts at coercion.
Ukrainian Military Personnel Casualty: Олександр Вілкул reports that Ukrainian defenders continue to inflict losses on occupying forces, citing the General Staff's updated estimated Russian losses. This indirectly highlights the ongoing Ukrainian military efforts and the human cost for the Russian side.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk Direction, Novopavlivka Direction, Toretsk Direction, Kramatorsk Direction, Siversk Direction, Kurakhove, Bogatyr, Yuzhno-Donetsk direction, Makeyevka, Huevo, Alexandropol, Elizavetovka, Hrodivka, Myroliubivka, Dachenske, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novoolexandrivka, Kotlyarivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka, Rozlyv, Novosilka, Novopil, Pryvilne, Burlatske, Stepove, Shcherbaky, Bilohorivka, Fedorivka, Chasiv Yar, Kurdiumivka, Krymske, Vesele, Volne Pole, Shevchenko): Intense ground combat continues across numerous sectors, with the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions remaining particularly active. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims Russian forces have advanced and consolidated in Bogatyr on the Yuzhno-Donetsk direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the destruction of a Russian reconnaissance and sabotage group near Kurakhove by Ukrainian drones. Russian sources claim destruction of Ukrainian personnel near Elizavetovka. Continued fighting is reported near Dzerzhinsk. Intense ground combat continues across numerous sectors. Russian sources claim a targeted drone strike on the Ukrainian 63rd Mechanized Brigade in Torskoye (reported previously). Russian sources claim to have repelled a Ukrainian attack near Chasiv Yar (reported previously). Fighting is reported near Dzerzhinsk (reported previously). Ukrainian sources report the posthumous award of Hero of Ukraine to a soldier who died leading an assault near Makiivka (reported previously). DeepState shares a video claiming Ukrainian forces are destroying enemy personnel in Huevo (reported previously). The Ukrainian General Staff previously reported 117 combat engagements in total across all directions as of 16:00, including 41 Russian attempts to advance on the Pokrovsk direction (32 repelled, 9 ongoing), 19 attacks on the Novopavlivka direction (3 ongoing), 17 attacks on the Lyman direction (2 ongoing), 5 attacks on the Toretsk direction, 4 attacks on the Kramatorsk direction, 3 attacks on the Orikhiv direction, 3 attacks on the Kupiansk direction (1 ongoing), and 2 attacks on the Siversk direction. Russian sources claim advances on the Yuzhno-Donetsk direction near Vesele, Volne Pole, and Novopil. Russian sources also claim advances near Shevchenko, Bogatyr, and Udachne on the Yuzhno-Donetsk direction. Russian military blogger shares data claiming significant territorial gains in Avdeevka-Krasnoarmeysk and Velikaya Novosilka areas since October 2023.
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (Tyotkino, Sudzha checkpoint, Glushkovo, Starikove, Maryine, Myropilske, Novodmytrivka, Petrushivka): Оперативний ЗСУ claims a Ukrainian aerial strike on a Russian UAV control point in Tyotkino. Colonelcassad claims Russian reconnaissance units operating near the Sudzha checkpoint found the remains of a Ukrainian serviceman and collected Western trophies. This indicates ongoing Ukrainian military activity and presence in this border region. Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a missile strike on an Internal Affairs building in Glushkovo (reported previously). Russian sources report continued Ukrainian attempts to cross the border near Tyotkino despite the claimed ceasefire (reported previously). The Ukrainian General Staff reports border settlements in Sumy Oblast, which border Kursk, are suffering from cynical shelling from Russian territory, including Starikove, Maryine, Myropilske, Novodmytrivka, and Petrushivka (reported previously). The Ukrainian General Staff also reports repelling 7 Russian attacks on the Kursk direction (reported previously).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopol district, Marhanetska community, Myrivska community, Mezheva community, Synelnykove district): Олександр Вілкул reports Russian attacks on Nikopol district using FPV drones and artillery, and on Mezheva community in Synelnykove district. A 62-year-old woman was injured in Nikopol district, and residential buildings, power lines, and a gas pipeline were damaged. A business was damaged in Mezheva community, but no casualties were reported there. Threat of Russian aviation strike weapons reported by the Ukrainian Air Force for Synelnykove district (reported previously). This suggests potential targeting of this area by Russian tactical aviation. Significant infrastructure restoration projects are underway in Kryvyi Rih (reported previously). Fast-moving targets from southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast are detected heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (reported previously). Missile danger was announced and subsequently cleared for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (reported previously).
Kharkiv Oblast (Vovchansk, Velykyi Burluk, Synelnykove, Zapsillya, Kupiansk): Ukrainian drone unit claims to have liquidated a Russian soldier in Vovchansk. The Ukrainian General Staff previously reported repelling two Russian attacks on the Kharkiv direction, with one engagement ongoing (reported previously). Russian sources previously claimed a strike on a Russian UAV command point near Synelnykove and the destruction of an IMR-1 and a T-72 tank near Zapsillya (reported previously). A Ukrainian source previously reported a Russian FPV drone attack on a communal service vehicle in Kupiansk, injuring a worker (reported previously). Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled a Russian assault on the Kharkiv direction (reported previously).
Sumy Oblast (Nova Sloboda, Brusky, Boyaro-Lezhachi, Starikove, Maryine, Myropilske, Novodmytrivka, Petrushivka, Bunyakino, Sukhodol, Novovasilievka, Bachevsk): Russian tactical aviation is reported to have launched guided aerial bombs towards the region, including areas of Nova Sloboda, Brusky, and Boyaro-Lezhachi (reported previously). The Ukrainian General Staff reports border settlements are suffering from cynical shelling from Russian territory, including Starikove, Maryine, Myropilske, Novodmytrivka, and Petrushivka (reported previously). The Ukrainian Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast (reported previously). RBC-Ukraine previously reported three civilian deaths and seven injured in Sumy Oblast due to Russian shelling (reported previously). Colonelcassad previously shared video claiming destruction of Ukrainian forces and assets in settlements in Sumy Oblast (Bunyakino, Sukhodol, Novovasilievka, Bachevsk). Rocket danger was announced and subsequently cleared for Sumy Oblast (reported previously).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air raid alert announced for communities in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (excluding the city of Zaporizhzhia), subsequently cleared. The Ukrainian General Staff previously reported repelling three Russian assaults on the Orikhiv direction (near Stepove and Shcherbaky) and no active Russian offensive actions on the Huliaipole direction. Russian sources previously reported hitting Ukrainian formations on the Dnipro grouping of forces direction near Novodanylivka, Pavlivka, and Kamianske. Missile danger was announced for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and subsequently cleared (reported previously).
Chernihiv Oblast (Klyusy, Gorsk): Colonelcassad previously shared video claiming the destruction of Ukrainian forces and assets in settlements in Chernihiv Oblast (Klyusy, Gorsk), specifically targeting UAV control points.
India-Pakistan Border Regions (Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Amritsar, Adampur, Rafiki Airbase, Murid Airbase, Shorkot Airbase, Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir): Colonelcassad and Оперативний ЗСУ confirm that explosions and shooting are again being reported in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, despite a claimed ceasefire. Videos are published online showing shooting and air defense activity in the border region. India reportedly accuses Pakistan of violating the ceasefire. This indicates a breakdown of the recently announced ceasefire and continued instability in the region.
Russia (Kadala airfield near Chita, Tatarstan - Naberezhnye Chelny, Kaluga Oblast - Shaikovka, Kapustin Yar Test Site, Bogatyr): Fire reported at the Kadala airfield near Chita. Reported damage at the Shaikovka strategic aviation airfield from repeated Ukrainian UAV strikes (reported previously). Potential fire at the KamAZ plant in Tatarstan (reported previously). Airspace closed over Kapustin Yar test site from May 12th-13th, suggesting planned missile testing or activity, potentially involving "Oreshnik" type missiles and likely ballistic missile tests (reported previously). Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims Russian forces have advanced and consolidated in Bogatyr on the Yuzhno-Donetsk direction.
Priazov direction: The Ukrainian General Staff previously reported no active Russian offensive actions on the Priazov direction.
Dnipro grouping of forces direction: Russian sources previously reported hitting Ukrainian formations on this direction near Novodanylivka, Pavlivka, and Kamianske.
South Donetsk direction: Russian sources claim changes in the situation on the South Donetsk direction with advances near Vesele, Volne Pole, and Novopil. Russian sources also claim advances near Shevchenko, Bogatyr, and Udachne on the South Donetsk direction. Russian military blogger claims significant territorial gains in Avdeevka-Krasnoarmeysk and Velikaya Novosilka areas since October 2023. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims Russian forces have advanced and consolidated in Bogatyr on the Yuzhno-Donetsk direction.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Pervasive on both sides. Ukrainian "Flying Skull" unit claims a successful strike on a Russian soldier in Vovchansk. Russian forces attacked Nikopol district with FPV drones. Russian military bloggers report on the use of FPV drones by Russian forces, including a strike on Ukrainian personnel attempting to hide in a pipe. Ukrainian sources previously claimed downing four Russian Supercam drones. Russian sources previously claimed the use of "Geran-2" drones in a targeted strike in Torskoye and the use of reconnaissance and strike drones to repel a Ukrainian attack near Chasiv Yar. Ukrainian sources previously reported repeated UAV strikes on the Shaikovka strategic aviation airfield. Russian sources previously reported their "Rubikon" center is actively destroying various types of Ukrainian reconnaissance drones. Russian sources previously discussed the use of helicopters (Ka-52, Mi-28NM) against Ukrainian long-range kamikaze drones. A Ukrainian source previously reported a Russian FPV drone attack on a communal service vehicle in Kupiansk. Russian sources previously claimed a strike on a Ukrainian UAV command point near Synelnykove. A drone show was previously held in Magadan Oblast for Victory Day. Russian military bloggers are previously reported to be fundraising for drones and signal amplifiers for the Kursk front. A Ukrainian source previously shared a video claiming successful work by Ukrainian Black Sea Lions 37th Separate Marine Battalion drone pilots. Archived footage previously claiming "jewelry precision" destruction of Ukrainian positions in Kharkiv Oblast by Russian UAVs is shared. Peaceful Victory Day drone shows were previously reported in Ola, Magadan Oblast. Colonelcassad previously shared video claiming the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points in Chernihiv Oblast. Pakistan previously claimed an Indian UAV was intercepted and destroyed over Rawalpindi. Russian military bloggers are continuing fundraising efforts for drones. Videos are published online showing air defense activity in the India-Pakistan border region, potentially involving counter-drone efforts. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the destruction of a Russian reconnaissance and sabotage group near Kurakhove by Ukrainian drones. Олександр Вілкул reports Russian attacks on Nikopol district using FPV drones.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Russian tactical aviation is reported to have launched guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast, including the areas of Nova Sloboda, Brusky, and Boyaro-Lezhachi (reported previously). The Ukrainian General Staff previously reported 7 aviation strikes and the dropping of 10 guided aerial bombs across various directions today. The Ukrainian Air Force previously reported repeated launches of guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast. KAB launches were previously detected towards Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts.
Missile Activity: Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a missile strike on a Russian Internal Affairs building in Glushkovo, Kursk Oblast (reported previously). Missile danger was announced for communities in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, subsequently cleared. Fast-moving targets are detected moving from southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (reported previously). Missile danger was announced and subsequently cleared for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (reported previously). Airspace closed over Kapustin Yar test site from May 12th-13th, suggesting planned missile activity, potentially involving "Oreshnik" type missiles and likely ballistic missile tests (reported previously). Reuters sources previously reported Iran is preparing to supply Fath-360 missile launch systems to Russia. Rocket danger was announced and subsequently cleared for Sumy Oblast (reported previously). India and Pakistan report exchanges involving ballistic and cruise missiles, with India claiming a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases (reported previously). Explosions are reported in Srinagar, India-Pakistan border region, despite a claimed ceasefire, potentially indicating missile or artillery strikes. Shooting is reported in the India-Pakistan border region.
Aviation: Activity of enemy tactical aviation is reported on the eastern direction. Russian tactical aviation is reported to be active, launching guided aerial bombs (reported previously). Russian sources previously discussed the use of helicopters in counter-drone operations. Russian sources also previously mentioned NATO aircraft activity near the Black Sea coast. Possible Indian air strike on a Pakistani Air Force Base in Rawalpindi (reported previously). Pakistan previously claimed India launched "air-to-ground" missiles at multiple airbases. India previously claimed a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases. Russian military blogger shares video showing Russian military aircraft, indicating ongoing Russian aviation operations (reported previously). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of Russian aviation strike weapons being used in the Synelnykove district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (reported previously). Videos are published online showing air defense activity in the India-Pakistan border region, potentially involving counter-aviation efforts. Fighterbomber shares a photo of a Russian fighter jet, likely for propaganda.
Naval Activity: Rybar analyzes the increased pressure on Russia's "shadow fleet" and discusses the need for increased naval presence to protect shipping. No new significant naval engagements reported beyond this analysis. A Ukrainian source previously shared a video claiming successful work by Ukrainian Black Sea Lions 37th Separate Marine Battalion drone pilots, suggesting continued maritime drone operations.
Air Defense Activity: Air raid alert announced and subsequently cleared for communities in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Air defense systems are actively working over Islamabad, Pakistan (reported previously). Pakistan previously claimed interception and destruction of an Indian UAV over Rawalpindi and interception of Indian cruise missiles near Shorkot. Videos are published online showing air defense activity in the India-Pakistan border region. ASTRA and Оперативний ЗСУ confirm air defense systems are working in Srinagar, India-Pakistan border region.
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Олександр Вілкул reports Russian artillery attacks on Nikopol district and Mezheva community in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Ceasefire Discussions: Ukraine is awaiting a response from Russia regarding a 30-day ceasefire. French President Emmanuel Macron stated that the monitoring of a potential ceasefire would be primarily led by the United States, with participation from all Europeans. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine is ready for meetings and negotiations in any format if there is a 30-day ceasefire. This confirms Ukraine's position on the ceasefire proposal and their engagement in related diplomatic discussions. Turkey has expressed readiness to undertake a monitoring mission for a potential ceasefire in Ukraine (reported previously). Discussions regarding a 30-day ceasefire proposal are ongoing, with a Ukrainian source previously reporting on the differing perspectives of the West, Ukraine, and Russia on the matter. Peskov previously reiterated that discussion of a 30-day ceasefire is impossible without considering "nuances."
Russia-Ukraine Relations: Peskov states there has been no reaction from Kyiv to Putin's offer of negotiations without preconditions. Peskov states that Russia is currently not in contact with the French President. Peskov commented on "confrontational" statements from Western leaders regarding the ceasefire proposal. This indicates a lack of direct high-level communication between the two countries and Russia's perception of Western rhetoric.
Russian-Chinese Relations: High-level meeting between Putin and Xi Jinping in Moscow focusing on deepening comprehensive partnership, strategic interaction, increasing trade in national currencies, a joint statement on global strategic stability, and historical narratives around WWII (reported previously). They previously expressed support for peace efforts but stressed addressing "root causes." Reuters, via РБК-Україна, reports that the US and China held their first meeting in Geneva to discuss de-escalation of the trade war.
Turkish Diplomacy: Turkish President Erdogan is reportedly receptive to mediating peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, as suggested by former US President Trump (reported previously). Turkey has expressed readiness to undertake a monitoring mission for a potential ceasefire in Ukraine (reported previously).
Ukraine-US Relations: Ukrainian Parliament previously ratified the "minerals agreement" with the US, with plans to establish an investment fund. Contacts between Russia and the US on Ukraine and other issues are reported to occur frequently (reported previously). Ukrainian President Zelenskyy previously thanked former US President Trump for not stopping US aid, intelligence sharing, and sanctions against Russia, and expressed hope for strengthened sanctions. Donald Trump previously commented on the potential for a fair trade deal with China. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine is ready for meetings and negotiations in any format in case of a 30-day ceasefire.
Internal Ukrainian Politics: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that the SBU has detained a combat battalion commander on corruption charges related to extorting "combat" payments. Anatoliy Loyf, the head of the Main Directorate of Counterintelligence Support for Critical Infrastructure and Countering Terrorism Financing of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), has been dismissed by SBU Head Vasyl Malyuk. This comes after a journalist reported seeing Loyf at a birthday celebration with an individual allegedly involved in the security of the owner of a sanctioned betting company. This indicates internal personnel changes and potential investigations within the SBU. Recognition of military personnel with the title "Hero of Ukraine," including the Head of the SBU and fallen soldiers (reported previously). Reports of a shooting incident with multiple fatalities in Sofiivska Borshchahivka (reported previously). Bail was previously posted for Roman Nasirov, former head of the State Fiscal Service. Vice-Prime Minister Stefanishyna previously discussed Ukraine's potential timeline for EU accession. Ukrainian source previously raised concerns about Hungarian intelligence activities focused on Ukraine. Colonelcassad previously shared a video claiming to show forced mobilization in Kharkiv, an information operation focused on internal Ukrainian issues.
Internal Russian Politics: Peskov states there has been no reaction from Kyiv to Putin's offer of negotiations without preconditions. Peskov states that Russia is currently not in contact with the French President. Peskov commented on "confrontational" statements from Western leaders regarding the ceasefire proposal. TASS reports that Peskov stated Russia is open to dialogue on a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine but that applying pressure on Moscow is useless. Peskov previously commented on the discussion of a 30-day ceasefire. The Russian Ministry of Defense previously released daily figures on claimed Ukrainian losses. Celebratory events for Victory Day are widely reported across Russia (reported previously). Russian Ministry of Defense previously stated Russian forces are strictly observing a ceasefire since May 8th based on humanitarian considerations. Kadyrov_95 previously shared video of a religious gathering commemorating his father. TASS previously reported American director Oliver Stone attended a Victory Day reception in the Kremlin. TASS previously reported that Putin spent over 14 hours on May 9th in discussions with high-ranking foreign guests. TASS previously reported that Putin concluded a series of bilateral international meetings by receiving the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, in the Kremlin. TASS previously reported that the Russian Ambassador to the US, Alexander Darchiev, stated at a Victory Day reception that current and future generations should not allow Nazism to rise again, claiming it has already taken root in some countries. Details of the Putin-Fico meeting were previously reported. Colonelcassad previously shared a video about alleged Nazi atrocities in Makeyevka during WWII, reflecting a specific information operation focus. Colonelcassad previously shared a photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel and equipment around Victory Day, reinforcing the narrative of ongoing operations. ASTRA previously reported the detention of a woman in Yekaterinburg for wearing a jacket with perceived Ukrainian symbols. A Victory Day auto rally was previously held in Dokuchaevsk. ASTRA reports on the detention of teenagers and potential punishment for their parents in Belarus for showing a middle finger to a Victory Day salute, highlighting control over dissent. A Slovak Member of the European Parliament stated that the EU will soon have to realize that the conflict in Ukraine cannot be resolved on the battlefield and that negotiations with Russia are necessary. Rybar provides an analysis of pressure on Russia's "shadow fleet". Putin states that the Gaza Strip is experiencing a humanitarian catastrophe. Rybar discusses internal security concerns in Dagestan.
Iran-Russia Relations: Reuters sources previously reported Iran is preparing to supply launch systems for Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia in the near future.
Russia-Uzbekistan Relations: TASS previously reported that Putin concluded a series of bilateral international meetings by receiving the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, in the Kremlin.
US-China Relations: Reuters, via РБК-Україна, reports that the US and China held their first meeting in Geneva to discuss de-escalation of the trade war. Donald Trump previously commented on potential for a fair trade deal.
India-Pakistan Conflict: Continued escalation with reported strikes and explosions in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, despite a claimed ceasefire. Conflicting claims regarding types of missiles used and success of strikes. India and Pakistan report exchanges involving ballistic and cruise missiles, with India claiming a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases (reported previously). Pakistan claims an Indian UAV was intercepted and destroyed over Rawalpindi (reported previously). Air defense systems are reportedly active over Islamabad (reported previously). Four explosions were reported in Amritsar, with Pakistan claiming five ballistic missiles hit the city (reported previously). Pakistan claimed one ballistic missile hit Adampur (reported previously). Pakistan claimed air defense intercepted Indian cruise missiles targeting Rafiki and Shorkot airbases (reported previously). Pakistan claimed India launched "air-to-ground" missiles at Murid and Shorkot airbases (reported previously). Shooting and air defense activity are reported in the border region. India reportedly accuses Pakistan of ceasefire violations. Colonelcassad and ASTRA confirm explosions and shooting in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, after a claimed ceasefire. Alex Parker Returns uses the situation to mockingly refer to "Trump's ceasefire." Colonelcassad shares a video about the explosions and shooting in Kashmir. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video and reports of shooting and air defense activity in the India-Pakistan border region. РБК-Україна reports on explosions in Srinagar. STERNENKO comments on the renewed shelling after Trump announced a ceasefire.
European Leaders Visit to Kyiv: TASS previously reported German Chancellor Merz, French President Macron, and UK Prime Minister Starmer have traveled to Kyiv. РБК-Україна previously confirmed and expanded this, reporting French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk are in Kyiv.
Russia-US Relations: Russian Ambassador to US previously stated reality requires restoration of normal relations and shared responsibility for global stability and security.
Poland-Ukraine Relations: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is in Kyiv as part of a high-level European delegation (reported previously).
Russia-Slovakia Relations: Details of the Putin-Fico meeting were previously reported, highlighting Fico's stance on sanctions and his promise to veto an EU ban on Russian energy imports. A Slovak Member of the European Parliament expressed the view that the conflict cannot be resolved militarily and requires negotiations with Russia.
Russia-Niger Relations: Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov held bilateral talks with the Defence Minister of Niger, Corps General Salifou Modi, focusing on expanding military cooperation.
Venezuela-Russia Relations: A Russian military blogger shares a video celebrating Victory Day in Caracas, highlighting perceived "brotherly ties."
Russia-Mali Relations: Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov held bilateral talks with the Minister of Defence and Veterans Affairs of Mali, Corps General Sadio Camara, focusing on cooperation and expressing support for Russia's "special military operation."
Palestine-Russia Relations: Putin is conducting a meeting with the President of Palestine, Mahmoud Abbas, where he discussed the humanitarian situation in Gaza and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security and Attacks: Fire reported at the Kadala airfield near Chita. Reported Ukrainian missile strike on an Internal Affairs building in Glushkovo, Kursk Oblast (reported previously). Reported damage at the Shaikovka strategic aviation airfield from repeated Ukrainian UAV strikes (reported previously). Potential fire at the KamAZ plant in Tatarstan (reported previously). The Ukrainian General Staff previously reported border settlements in Sumy Oblast are suffering from cynical shelling from Russian territory. Firework display in Reni, Odesa Oblast attributed to "partisans" by Russian sources (reported previously). Colonelcassad previously shared video claiming the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points in Chernihiv Oblast. Airspace closed over Kapustin Yar test site from May 12th-13th (reported previously). ASTRA previously reported the detention of a woman in Yekaterinburg for wearing a jacket with perceived Ukrainian symbols. ASTRA reports on the detention of teenagers and potential punishment for their parents in Belarus for showing a middle finger to a Victory Day salute, highlighting control over dissent. Rybar discusses internal security concerns and debates around information influence in Dagestan, highlighting a recent shootout with terrorists.
Military Performance and Capabilities: An officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports significant Russian advances southwest of Kostiantynivka and towards Yablunivka. Continues offensive operations on other key ground axes, utilizing artillery, guided bombs (KABs), and drones (including FPV drones). Engaging Ukrainian forces in border regions with VDV units and special detachments. Utilizing extensive information operations, particularly around Victory Day, including leveraging international events and symbols. Conducting shellings and drone attacks on Ukrainian border regions and other areas, resulting in civilian casualties and damage. Reports of advances near Romanivka, Oleksandropil, and Nova Poltavka (reported previously). Russian Ministry of Defense previously stated Russian forces are strictly observing a ceasefire since May 8th based on humanitarian considerations, a claim contradicted by reports of fighting. Airspace closed over Kapustin Yar test site from May 12th-13th, suggesting planned missile testing or activity, including likely ballistic missile tests (reported previously). Potential future acquisition of Fath-360 missile launch systems from Iran (reported previously). Colonelcassad previously shared a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion on the Orikhiv direction restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling. Promoting historical narratives of alleged atrocities to reinforce political messaging (reported previously). Engaged in military exchanges with India as reported by Pakistan (reported previously). India previously claimed a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases. Colonelcassad previously shared a photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel and equipment around Victory Day, likely intended to bolster public support. Russian sources claim advances on the Yuzhno-Donetsk direction near Vesele, Volne Pole, and Novopil. Russian sources also claim advances near Shevchenko, Bogatyr, and Udachne on the Yuzhno-Donetsk direction. Conducting military cooperation talks with Niger. Utilizing propaganda efforts around discovered Ukrainian ordnance. Utilizing information operations targeting Zelenskyy's image and legacy. Conducting reconnaissance missions in border regions and collecting enemy equipment. Russian military blogger shares data claiming significant territorial gains since October 2023. Russian military bloggers are continuing fundraising efforts for military equipment. Russian military bloggers report on the use of FPV drones by Russian forces, including a strike on Ukrainian personnel. Rybar analyzes the need for increased naval presence to protect Russian shipping. Conducting military cooperation talks with Mali. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims Russian forces have advanced and consolidated in Bogatyr on the Yuzhno-Donetsk direction. Воин DV reports that Russian forces of the "Vostok" grouping dropped leaflets on Ukrainian positions in Bogatyr, claiming control of southern and southeastern parts. Fighterbomber shares a photo of a Russian fighter jet for propaganda. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo claiming monument restoration in Kherson Oblast using 3D printing.
Civilian Casualties: A 62-year-old woman was injured in Russian shelling and drone attacks in Nikopol district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. ASTRA previously reported that three people have died and seven have been injured in Russian shellings of Sumy Oblast. RBC-Ukraine previously reported three civilian deaths and seven injured in Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad shares graphic photos and commentary claiming to show the remains of a deceased Ukrainian serviceman in the area of the Sudzha checkpoint in Kursk Oblast, also claiming Russian reconnaissance units collected trophies and plan to transport the remains to Russian morgues for potential transfer to relatives in Ukraine. Олександр Вілкул reports a 62-year-old woman was injured in Russian attacks in Nikopol district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and residential buildings were damaged.
Information Control and Censorship: Extensive information campaigning around Victory Day is evident. Alex Parker Returns previously shared a video making a negative historical comparison between Zelenskyy and Hitler. Russian military bloggers are sharing videos promoting patriotism and emphasizing the importance of remembering the "Great feat of the Soviet people" (reported previously). TASS previously reported that the Russian Ambassador to the US, Alexander Darchiev, stated at a Victory Day reception that current and future generations should not allow Nazism to rise again, claiming it has already taken root in some countries. Colonelcassad previously shared a video about alleged Nazi atrocities in Makeyevka during WWII, a strong example of utilizing historical narratives for political messaging. Colonelcassad previously shared a video claiming to show forced mobilization in Kharkiv, an example of utilizing negative information about Ukraine. Colonelcassad previously shared a photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel and equipment around Victory Day. ASTRA previously reported the detention of a woman in Yekaterinburg for wearing a jacket with perceived Ukrainian symbols. Russian military blogger shares a photo of a non-detonated Ukrainian shell casing with an anti-Russian inscription, likely for propaganda. Russian military blogger shares a photo of a photo of Zelenskyy's grandfather with a message calling Zelenskyy a "traitor" attached to a Soviet Army monument in Berlin, a direct information operation targeting Zelenskyy's image and legacy. ASTRA reports on the detention of teenagers and potential punishment for their parents in Belarus for showing a middle finger to a Victory Day salute, highlighting control over dissent. A Russian military blogger shares a video of a poem about a veteran, likely for propaganda purposes. Rybar discusses internal security concerns and debates around information influence in Dagestan. Воин DV reports that Russian forces dropped leaflets on Ukrainian positions in Bogatyr, part of a psychological warfare effort. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo claiming monument restoration in Kherson Oblast, part of a narrative of rebuilding. TASS reports that Peskov stated Russia is open to dialogue on a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine but that applying pressure on Moscow is useless, controlling the narrative around negotiations.
Military Commemoration and Information Operations: Celebratory events for Victory Day are widely reported, including fireworks, drone shows, and auto rallies (reported previously). Cultural events, such as concerts for military personnel, are being held (reported previously). Russian sources are sharing historical reflections and using historical footage for political messaging (reported previously). Peaceful Victory Day drone shows were previously reported in Ola, Magadan Oblast. Russian military bloggers emphasize patriotism and historical narratives related to Victory Day (reported previously). TASS previously reported American director Oliver Stone attended a Victory Day reception in the Kremlin. Russian military bloggers are sharing videos promoting patriotism and emphasizing the importance of remembering the "Great feat of the Soviet people" (reported previously). Colonelcassad previously shared a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion on the Orikhiv direction restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling. Colonelcassad previously shared a video about alleged Nazi atrocities in Makeyevka during WWII. Colonelcassad previously shared a photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel and equipment around Victory Day, actively participating in information operations. A Victory Day auto rally was previously held in Dokuchaevsk. Russian military blogger shares a video celebrating Victory Day in Caracas, Venezuela, highlighting the presence of Russian symbols and perceived "brotherly ties," an example of leveraging international events for domestic and international information operations. Russian military blogger shares a photo of a photo of Zelenskyy's grandfather with a message calling Zelenskyy a "traitor" attached to a Soviet Army monument in Berlin, a targeted information operation. A Russian military blogger shares a video of a poem about a veteran, likely for commemoration and propaganda. ASTRA reports on the detention of teenagers and potential punishment for their parents in Belarus for showing a middle finger to a Victory Day salute. Colonelcassad promotes a film about a wounded veteran, aimed at showcasing resilience and potentially garnering support. Fighterbomber shares a photo of a Russian fighter jet with a Soviet flag, for propaganda. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo claiming monument restoration in Kherson Oblast using 3D printing, part of a narrative of rebuilding.
Public Support for the Military: Auto rallies and fundraising efforts indicate continued public support (reported previously). Cultural events for military personnel aim to strengthen this support (reported previously). Russian military bloggers previously continued fundraising for equipment. Kadyrov_95 previously shared video of a religious gathering with strong patriotic and military undertones. Colonelcassad previously shared a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion on the Orikhiv direction restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling. Colonelcassad previously shared a photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel in the conflict zone, likely intended to bolster public support. Russian military bloggers are continuing fundraising efforts for military equipment, including drones. Colonelcassad promotes a film about a wounded veteran, likely aimed at garnering public support.
Law Enforcement: ASTRA previously reported the detention of a woman in Yekaterinburg. ASTRA reports on the detention of teenagers and potential punishment for their parents in Belarus. Rybar discusses internal security concerns and debates around information influence in Dagestan, highlighting a recent shootout with terrorists.
Diplomatic Engagements: Putin previously had extensive diplomatic engagements on Victory Day, including with the President of Uzbekistan. Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov held bilateral talks with the Defence Minister of Niger. Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov held bilateral talks with the Minister of Defence and Veterans Affairs of Mali. Putin is conducting a meeting with the President of Palestine. Reuters, via РБК-Україна, reports that the US and China held their first meeting in Geneva to discuss de-escalation of the trade war.
Casualties: Russian military blogger shares a photo of a non-detonated Ukrainian shell casing with an anti-Russian inscription found by a Russian soldier, implying potential casualties. Reports of a father and son from Buryatia previously killed in the conflict. Colonelcassad shares graphic photos and commentary claiming to show the remains of a deceased Ukrainian serviceman in the area of the Sudzha checkpoint in Kursk Oblast, also claiming Russian reconnaissance units collected trophies and plan to transport the remains to Russian morgues for potential transfer to relatives in Ukraine. Олександр Вілкул reports a 62-year-old woman was injured in Russian attacks in Nikopol district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and residential buildings were damaged. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the destruction of a Russian reconnaissance and sabotage group near Kurakhove. Putin states that the Gaza Strip is experiencing a humanitarian catastrophe.

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Humanitarian Situation: A 62-year-old woman was injured in Russian shelling and drone attacks in Nikopol district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and residential buildings were damaged. ASTRA previously reported that three people have died and seven have been injured in Russian shellings of Sumy Oblast. A Ukrainian military blogger previously shared a photo captioned "ceasefire," implying continued impacts on civilians. Confirmed civilian casualties in Sumy Oblast due to Russian shelling by RBC-Ukraine (reported previously). Colonelcassad previously shared a video claiming to show forced mobilization in Kharkiv, which could be interpreted as highlighting a perceived negative humanitarian impact on Ukrainian civilians. Colonelcassad shares graphic photos and commentary claiming to show the remains of a deceased Ukrainian serviceman in the area of the Sudzha checkpoint in Kursk Oblast, highlighting the human cost of the conflict. Олександр Вілкул reports a 62-year-old woman was injured in Russian attacks in Nikopol district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and residential buildings were damaged. Putin states that the Gaza Strip is experiencing a humanitarian catastrophe.
Military Support: Russian military bloggers are fundraising for equipment for fighters on the Kursk front (reported previously). A Ukrainian military blogger is previously conducting a fundraising campaign for equipment for various brigades. A Russian military blogger is previously conducting a collection for marine infantrymen on the Kherson direction. Russian military bloggers previously continued fundraising for equipment. Denmark has previously announced providing almost €830 million for Ukraine's defense industry. Germany previously provided a new military aid package. Russian military bloggers are continuing fundraising efforts for military equipment, including drones.
Cultural Support: Artists from Buryatia are previously conducting concerts for participants of the "SMO" in hospitals and training grounds (reported previously). Colonelcassad previously shared a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion on the Orikhiv direction restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling. A Russian military blogger shares a video of a poem about a veteran, likely for support and morale. Colonelcassad promotes a film about a wounded veteran, potentially for support and rehabilitation. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo claiming monument restoration in Kherson Oblast using 3D printing, part of a narrative of rebuilding and cultural support in occupied territories.
Infrastructure Restoration: Detailed reports on water supply restoration projects in Kryvyi Rih (reported previously). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo claiming monument restoration in Kherson Oblast using 3D printing.
Personnel Support: Meeting between the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War and families of captured and missing marines (reported previously). Recognition of Ukrainian military personnel with high honors (reported previously). Russian military bloggers report on the use of FPV drones by Russian forces, including a strike on Ukrainian personnel attempting to hide and evacuate wounded. Colonelcassad promotes a film about a wounded veteran, highlighting rehabilitation and support. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo claiming monument restoration in Kherson Oblast using 3D printing.
Fundraising: Continued fundraising efforts by military bloggers (reported previously). A Ukrainian unit claims the viewing of their video is "paid" and asks for donations for "russoriz" (likely a euphemism for anti-Russian efforts). Russian military bloggers are continuing fundraising efforts for military equipment.
Support for Businesses: The head of the Kryvyi Rih defense council previously highlighted ongoing international partnership projects for reconstruction and support, including grants and loan compensation for small and medium businesses.
Educational Support: International partnership projects previously providing computer equipment to educational institutions in Kryvyi Rih.
Energy Solutions: International partnership projects previously providing energy solutions like battery stations and solar power plants in Kryvyi Rih.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Russia: Intensifying offensive operations southwest of Kostiantynivka and towards Yablunivka. Continues offensive operations on other key ground axes, utilizing artillery, guided bombs (KABs), and drones (including FPV drones). Engaging Ukrainian forces in border regions with VDV units and special detachments. Utilizing extensive information operations, particularly around Victory Day, including leveraging international events and symbols. Conducting shellings and drone attacks on Ukrainian border regions and other areas, resulting in civilian casualties and damage. Reports of advances near Romanivka, Oleksandropil, and Nova Poltavka (reported previously). Russian Ministry of Defense previously stated Russian forces are strictly observing a ceasefire since May 8th based on humanitarian considerations, a claim contradicted by reports of fighting. Airspace closed over Kapustin Yar test site from May 12th-13th, suggesting planned missile testing or activity, including likely ballistic missile tests (reported previously). Potential future acquisition of Fath-360 missile launch systems from Iran (reported previously). Colonelcassad previously shared a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion on the Orikhiv direction restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling. Promoting historical narratives of alleged atrocities to reinforce political messaging (reported previously). Engaged in military exchanges with India as reported by Pakistan (reported previously). India previously claimed a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases. Colonelcassad previously shared a photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel and equipment around Victory Day, likely intended to bolster public support. Russian sources claim advances on the Yuzhno-Donetsk direction near Vesele, Volne Pole, and Novopil. Russian sources also claim advances near Shevchenko, Bogatyr, and Udachne on the Yuzhno-Donetsk direction. Conducting military cooperation talks with Niger. Utilizing propaganda efforts around discovered Ukrainian ordnance. Utilizing information operations targeting Zelenskyy's image and legacy. Conducting reconnaissance missions in border regions and collecting enemy equipment. Russian military blogger shares data claiming significant territorial gains since October 2023. Russian military bloggers are continuing fundraising efforts for military equipment. Russian military bloggers report on the use of FPV drones, including a strike on Ukrainian personnel. Rybar analyzes the need for increased naval presence to protect Russian shipping. Conducting military cooperation talks with Mali. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims Russian forces have advanced and consolidated in Bogatyr on the Yuzhno-Donetsk direction. Олександр Вілкул reports Russian attacks on Nikopol district and Mezheva community in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast using FPV drones and artillery. Воин DV reports that Russian forces of the "Vostok" grouping dropped leaflets on Ukrainian positions in Bogatyr, claiming control of southern and southeastern parts and using psychological warfare. Fighterbomber shares a photo of a Russian fighter jet for propaganda. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo claiming monument restoration in Kherson Oblast using 3D printing, potentially a tactic to portray control and rebuilding.
Ukraine: Actively defending against Russian advances around Kostiantynivka. Continuing defensive and limited offensive operations, including reported cross-border activity. Utilizing drones for engagements, including deep strikes, counter-drone operations, and targeted strikes on personnel (including FPV drones in Vovchansk and on the Pokrovsk direction). Seeking international support and military aid. Countering Russian information operations. Experiencing shelling and drone attacks on border regions and other areas resulting in civilian casualties and damage. Experiencing internal personnel changes within the SBU. Engaging in potential military exchanges with Pakistan as reported by India (reported previously). Hosting high-level European leaders in Kyiv (reported previously). Awaiting a response from Russia regarding a ceasefire. Repelling Russian assaults on the Kharkiv direction (reported previously). Engaging in humanitarian efforts related to prisoners of war. Conducting fundraising for military equipment. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine is ready for negotiations in any format in case of a 30-day ceasefire. Ukrainian military bloggers report on the use of FPV drones by Ukrainian forces in Vovchansk and on the Pokrovsk direction. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that the SBU has detained a combat battalion commander on corruption charges. Оперативний ЗСУ claims a Ukrainian aerial strike on a Russian UAV control point in Tyotkino, Kursk Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the destruction of a Russian reconnaissance and sabotage group near Kurakhove by Ukrainian drones. Олександр Вілкул reports Ukrainian defenders continue to inflict losses on occupying forces, citing the General Staff's updated estimated Russian losses.
India: Engaged in escalating conflict with Pakistan, claiming strikes on Pakistani airbases (reported previously). Accusing Pakistan of ceasefire violations. Colonelcassad, ASTRA and Оперативний ЗСУ confirm renewed explosions and shooting in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, despite a claimed ceasefire. Videos are published online showing shooting and air defense activity in the border region.
Pakistan: Engaged in military exchanges with India, reporting on Indian strikes and claiming interceptions (reported previously). Experiencing explosions and shooting in the border region despite a claimed ceasefire. Reportedly accused by India of ceasefire violations. Colonelcassad, ASTRA and Оперативний ЗСУ confirm renewed explosions and shooting in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, despite a claimed ceasefire. Videos are published online showing shooting and air defense activity in the border region.
Niger: Conducting military cooperation talks with Russia.
Mali: Conducting military cooperation talks with Russia and expressing support for Russia's "special military operation."
Western PMCs: Colonelcassad previously reported the alleged presence of PMCs from Poland, Lithuania, Denmark, and Great Britain in the Kursk direction, potentially for sabotage missions.

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The reported intensification of the Russian offensive southwest of Kostiantynivka and their stated advances in the area are a significant development, indicating a potential new focus for Russian efforts in Donetsk Oblast. Securing Kostiantynivka would be a notable strategic gain for Russia and pose a serious threat to Ukrainian positions in the Donbas. Ukraine's focus on defending this area, as reported by a Ukrainian officer, underscores its critical importance.
The continued use and effectiveness of Ukrainian FPV drones in inflicting casualties, as demonstrated by the strike in Vovchansk and on the Pokrovsk direction, highlights the ongoing adaptation of tactics in the conflict and the importance of asymmetric capabilities. This capability allows Ukraine to target Russian personnel and equipment with relatively low-cost systems. The reports of Russian forces also utilizing FPV drones against Ukrainian personnel underscore the widespread adoption of this technology on both sides. Олександр Вілкул reports Russian attacks on Nikopol district using FPV drones, indicating their continued use against civilian areas.
Ukraine's public statement about awaiting a Russian response on a ceasefire, and the proposed role of the US and European countries in monitoring, indicates a level of diplomatic engagement around potential de-escalation, although the prospects for a genuine ceasefire remain uncertain given the continued fighting, conflicting narratives, and Peskov's comments on "confrontational" Western statements. Zelenskyy's readiness for negotiations in any format in case of a ceasefire signal Ukraine's openness to a diplomatic resolution under specific conditions. The lack of direct contact between Russia and the French President, as stated by Peskov, underscores the limitations of current diplomatic channels. TASS reports that Peskov stated Russia is open to dialogue on a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine but that applying pressure on Moscow is useless, reinforcing Russia's negotiation stance.
The continued air raid alerts and reported activity of Russian tactical aviation on the eastern direction highlight the persistent threat of Russian aerial strikes across the front lines and in deeper rear areas. This necessitates continued focus on air defense capabilities.
Russia's military cooperation talks with Niger and Mali, as reported by the Russian Ministry of Defence, are strategically significant as they demonstrate Russia's efforts to expand its influence and partnerships in Africa, potentially impacting regional security dynamics and challenging Western interests. The Malian Minister's expression of support for Russia's "special military operation," framed in the context of combating "fascism," is a key piece of propaganda and diplomatic alignment for Russia.
The internal personnel changes within the SBU, as reported by a Ukrainian source, could have implications for the effectiveness and direction of Ukraine's security services and counterintelligence efforts. The context of the dismissal, related to alleged connections with an individual linked to a sanctioned entity, highlights potential issues of corruption or undue influence within the Ukrainian security apparatus. The reported detention of a combat battalion commander by the SBU on corruption charges further emphasizes ongoing efforts within Ukraine to address internal issues within the military structure, which is strategically important for maintaining effectiveness and trust.
The ongoing, multi-faceted Russian information operations around Victory Day, including leveraging events in other countries and employing various media, are a key component of their strategy to shape narratives, garner support, and sow discord. The targeted information operation against Zelenskyy's grandfather is a particularly pointed example of attempting to undermine his legitimacy and connection to Ukrainian history. The use of images of discovered Ukrainian ordnance with anti-Russian inscriptions is another example of utilizing battlefield findings for propaganda. The detention of teenagers in Belarus for a perceived disrespectful gesture during a Victory Day salute highlights the stringent control over public expression related to this narrative in countries aligned with Russia. The sharing of a poem about a veteran is another example of leveraging emotional content for propaganda and morale. Colonelcassad's promotion of a film about a wounded veteran is another example of leveraging personal stories for propaganda and support. Fighterbomber sharing a photo of a Russian fighter jet with a Soviet flag is visual propaganda linking current military power to historical symbols. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 sharing a photo claiming monument restoration in Kherson Oblast is part of a narrative of rebuilding and legitimizing control. Rybar discussing internal security concerns in Dagestan and debates around information influence highlights a potential vulnerability that Russian information operations are attempting to address.
The continued shelling and drone attacks on civilian areas and infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, as reported by the regional administration, underscore the ongoing human cost of the conflict and the indiscriminate nature of some Russian strikes. This has significant humanitarian consequences and raises concerns about potential violations of international law. Олександр Вілкул's report on a 62-year-old woman injured and residential buildings damaged in Nikopol district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirms the ongoing humanitarian impact.
The reported fire at the Kadala airfield near Chita, if confirmed to be a result of an attack or sabotage, would indicate Ukraine's continued ability to strike targets deep within Russian territory, impacting Russian aviation capabilities and potentially raising internal security concerns for Russia.
Russian claims of significant territorial gains since October 2023, particularly in specific areas, while needing independent verification, suggest a narrative of sustained offensive pressure and could be used to bolster domestic support and project an image of success. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims Russian forces have advanced and consolidated in Bogatyr on the Yuzhno-Donetsk direction, further supporting this narrative of claimed gains.
The reported escalation between India and Pakistan, with alleged strikes and explosions in Kashmir despite a claimed ceasefire, highlights the fragility of de-escalation efforts and the potential for regional conflicts to quickly reignite. This situation could draw international attention and resources, potentially impacting the broader geopolitical landscape. The accusation by India of ceasefire violations further underscores the breakdown of the agreement. Colonelcassad, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, and STERNENKO all confirming renewed explosions and shooting in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, after a claimed ceasefire is a significant strategic development indicating the rapid failure of de-escalation efforts in that region and highlighting the potential for instability. Alex Parker Returns' use of this situation to mock "Trump's ceasefire" is a strategic information operation move.
The continued fundraising efforts by Russian military bloggers for equipment like drones suggest ongoing needs at the unit level and potentially highlight gaps in official supply chains, despite the broader claims of military success. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА's open request for donations for drones for the Donetsk direction underscores this ongoing need at the tactical level.
The statement by a Slovak MEP suggesting the conflict cannot be resolved militarily and advocating for negotiations with Russia highlights differing views within the EU and could potentially influence future discussions and policies regarding Ukraine.
The analysis by a Russian military blogger regarding the targeting of Russia's "shadow fleet" and the need for increased naval protection indicates the economic impact of Western sanctions and the strategic importance of protecting maritime trade for Russia. This suggests a potential area of increased focus and activity for the Russian navy. Rybar's detailed analysis reinforces the strategic importance of this issue for Russia's economy and ability to fund the conflict.
The reported meeting between US and China in Geneva to discuss trade war de-escalation is a significant diplomatic development between the two major global powers that could have broader implications for international relations and the global economy.
The reported destruction of a Russian reconnaissance and sabotage group near Kurakhove by Ukrainian drones, as reported by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, highlights continued Russian efforts at infiltration and the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone units in countering such tactics.
The reported detention of a Ukrainian combat battalion commander by the SBU on corruption charges, as reported by Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, is a strategic development within Ukraine, indicating efforts to address internal issues that could impact military effectiveness and morale.
The claimed Ukrainian aerial strike on a Russian UAV control point in Tyotkino, Kursk Oblast, as reported by Оперативний ЗСУ, indicates continued Ukrainian targeting of Russian military infrastructure in border regions and potentially the use of Western-provided assets for these strikes.
Putin's comments on the humanitarian situation in Gaza and meeting with the President of Palestine indicate Russia's continued engagement with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which could serve to divert international attention from Ukraine or position Russia as a key diplomatic player in the Middle East.
The reported detention of teenagers in Belarus for perceived disrespect to Victory Day salute, as reported by ASTRA, highlights the strategic importance of information control and the enforcement of nationalistic narratives in Belarus, a key Russian ally.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report