Sitrep 2025-05-10 15:40:57

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 10, 2025, 15:40 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment continues to be characterized by intense ground combat, pervasive aerial and drone activity, and targeted strikes. The primary focus remains on eastern and southern Ukraine, with sustained activity in the border regions. Russian forces continue offensive efforts across multiple axes, and fierce Ukrainian defensive actions are ongoing. Recent reports detail updated casualty figures, continued Russian aerial and drone strikes (including KABs and FPV drones), Ukrainian deep strikes targeting Russian military and logistical assets, and international diplomatic activity related to the conflict and other regional tensions. New information highlights continued civilian casualties and damage from Russian strikes, claims of Russian territorial gains, Ukrainian reports of repelling numerous assaults, ongoing Russian drone and air activity with specific weapon types mentioned, updated estimates of Russian losses, continued Ukrainian deep strikes, the significant impact of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian infrastructure and internal security concerns in Russia, information operations surrounding Victory Day and historical narratives, Russian internal security issues, Ukrainian discussions on military service for women, increased membership in a Russian youth military-patriotic movement, successful Ukrainian infrastructure restoration efforts, and a claimed Russian ceasefire that appears to be largely disregarded in areas of intense fighting. The escalation between India and Pakistan, reported previously, continues to be a significant development in the broader geopolitical context.

Significant updates from the latest messages include:

Intensified Fighting and Russian Advances near Kostiantynivka: An officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the call sign "Alex" reports that the battle for Kostiantynivka has effectively begun. He states that Russian forces have shifted their focus from the Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk) and New York directions and are now actively engaged southwest of Kostiantynivka. He reports significant Russian advances in the area of Oleksandropil-Novoolexandrivka and breakthroughs from Romanivka towards Yablunivka over the past week. This assessment from a Ukrainian source underscores the seriousness of the situation around Kostiantynivka.
Ukrainian Drone Activity and Casualties: The Ukrainian unit "Flying Skull" claims to have destroyed a Russian soldier on the Pokrovsk direction using an FPV drone. A video is shared as evidence. This highlights the continued effectiveness of Ukrainian FPV drones in inflicting casualties on the battlefield.
Ukrainian Confirmation of Russian Ceasefire Rejection: Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Ihor Brusylo, stated that Ukraine is awaiting a response from Russia regarding a 30-day ceasefire. He added that if Russia does not agree, leaders can convene via video conference to decide on next steps. This confirms Ukraine's position on the ceasefire proposal and their engagement in related diplomatic discussions.
Air Raid Alerts and Tactical Aviation Activity: An air raid alert was announced for communities in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (excluding the city of Zaporizhzhia), followed by a general all-clear for threats in the oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force reported activity of enemy tactical aviation on the eastern direction. This indicates continued Russian aerial presence and the potential for strikes in eastern and southern Ukraine.
Russian Defense Minister Meets with Niger's Defence Minister: The Russian Ministry of Defence reports a meeting between Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov and the Defence Minister of Niger, Corps General Salifou Modi. The discussion focused on expanding military cooperation and viewed the Alliance of Sahel States as a manifestation of these countries' determination for an independent foreign policy. This highlights Russia's diplomatic and military engagement in Africa.
Internal Ukrainian Military Personnel Changes: Anatoliy Loyf, the head of the Main Directorate of Counterintelligence Support for Critical Infrastructure and Countering Terrorism Financing of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), has been dismissed by SBU Head Vasyl Malyuk. This comes after a journalist reported seeing Loyf at a birthday celebration with an individual allegedly involved in the security of the owner of a sanctioned betting company. This indicates internal personnel changes and potential investigations within the SBU.
Russian Information Operation - Victory Day and Propaganda: A Russian military blogger shares a photo of a non-detonated Ukrainian shell casing with the inscription "Death to Katsaps" found by a Russian soldier. This is likely used for propaganda purposes. Another Russian military blogger shares a video celebrating Victory Day in Caracas, Venezuela, highlighting the presence of the Victory Banner and Russian flag, emphasizing "brotherly ties" and a shared view on sovereignty and peace. Another shares a photo of a photo of Zelenskyy's grandfather with a message calling Zelenskyy a "traitor" attached to a Soviet Army monument in Berlin. These examples demonstrate continued Russian information operations leveraging Victory Day narratives and attempting to create divisions.
Ukrainian Drone Strike in Vovchansk: DeepState shares a video claiming the "liquidation" of a Russian soldier in Vovchansk by a Ukrainian drone unit. This indicates continued fighting and Ukrainian drone activity in the Kharkiv direction.
Discussion on Ceasefire Monitoring: French President Emmanuel Macron stated that the monitoring of a potential ceasefire would be primarily led by the United States, with participation from all Europeans. This clarifies the proposed international involvement in ceasefire monitoring.
Russian Lack of Contact with French President: Peskov, spokesperson for the Russian President, stated that Russia is currently not in contact with the French President. This indicates a lack of direct high-level communication between the two countries.
Russian Shelling and Drone Attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: The Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration reports Russian attacks on Nikopol district using FPV drones and artillery, and on Mezheva community in Synelnykove district. A 62-year-old woman was injured in Nikopol district, and residential buildings, power lines, and a gas pipeline were damaged. A business was damaged in Mezheva community, but no casualties were reported there. This highlights continued Russian targeting of civilian areas and infrastructure in southern and southeastern Ukraine.
Fire at Russian Airfield: A Ukrainian source shares a video showing a fire at the Kadala airfield near Chita, Russia. The video is reportedly filmed by Russian pilots. This indicates a potential incident or attack affecting Russian aviation infrastructure far from the front lines.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (Kostiantynivka, Oleksandropil, Novoolexandrivka, Romanivka, Yablunivka, Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk), New York, Elizavetovka, Pokrovsk direction, Makeyevka, Huevo, Alexandropol, Elizavetovka, Hrodivka, Myroliubivka, Dachenske, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novoolexandrivka, Kotlyarivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka, Rozlyv, Novosilka, Novopil, Pryvilne, Burlatske, Stepove, Shcherbaky, Bilohorivka, Fedorivka, Chasiv Yar, Kurdiumivka, Krymske): The battle for Kostiantynivka has reportedly begun with significant Russian advances southwest of the city. Intense ground combat continues across numerous sectors. Russian forces are reported to have advanced near Oleksandropil-Novoolexandrivka and from Romanivka towards Yablunivka. Ukrainian forces are reportedly engaging Russian forces on the Pokrovsk direction with drones. Intense fighting is reported near Chasiv Yar. Russian sources claim destruction of Ukrainian personnel near Elizavetovka. Continued fighting is reported near Dzerzhinsk. Intense ground combat continues across numerous sectors. Russian sources claim a targeted drone strike on the Ukrainian 63rd Mechanized Brigade in Torskoye (reported previously). Russian sources claim to have repelled a Ukrainian attack near Chasiv Yar (reported previously). Fighting is reported near Dzerzhinsk (reported previously). Ukrainian sources report the posthumous award of Hero of Ukraine to a soldier who died leading an assault near Makiivka (reported previously). DeepState shares a video claiming Ukrainian forces are destroying enemy personnel in Huevo (reported previously). The Ukrainian General Staff previously reported 117 combat engagements in total across all directions as of 16:00, including 41 Russian attempts to advance on the Pokrovsk direction (32 repelled, 9 ongoing), 19 attacks on the Novopavlivka direction (3 ongoing), 17 attacks on the Lyman direction (2 ongoing), 5 attacks on the Toretsk direction, 4 attacks on the Kramatorsk direction, 3 attacks on the Orikhiv direction, 3 attacks on the Kupiansk direction (1 ongoing), and 2 attacks on the Siversk direction. Russian sources claim advances on the Yuzhno-Donetsk direction near Vesele, Volne Pole, and Novopil. Russian sources also claim advances near Shevchenko, Bogatyr, and Udachne on the Yuzhno-Donetsk direction.
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (Sudzha checkpoint, Glushkovo, Tyotkino, Starikove, Maryine, Myropilske, Novodmytrivka, Petrushivka): Colonelcassad claims Russian reconnaissance units operating near the Sudzha checkpoint found the remains of a Ukrainian serviceman and collected Western trophies. This indicates ongoing Ukrainian military activity and presence in this border region. Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a missile strike on an Internal Affairs building in Glushkovo (reported previously). Russian sources report continued Ukrainian attempts to cross the border near Tyotkino despite the claimed ceasefire (reported previously). The Ukrainian General Staff reports border settlements in Sumy Oblast, which border Kursk, are suffering from cynical shelling from Russian territory, including Starikove, Maryine, Myropilske, Novodmytrivka, and Petrushivka (reported previously). The Ukrainian General Staff also reports repelling 7 Russian attacks on the Kursk direction (reported previously).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopol district, Marhanetska community, Myrivska community, Mezheva community, Synelnykove district): Russian forces attacked Nikopol district with FPV drones and artillery, causing civilian injury and damage to homes, power lines, and a gas pipeline. Russian forces also attacked Mezheva community in Synelnykove district, damaging a business. Threat of Russian aviation strike weapons reported by the Ukrainian Air Force for Synelnykove district (reported previously). This suggests potential targeting of this area by Russian tactical aviation. Significant infrastructure restoration projects are underway in Kryvyi Rih (reported previously). Fast-moving targets from southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast are detected heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (reported previously). Missile danger was announced and subsequently cleared for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (reported previously).
Kharkiv Oblast (Vovchansk, Velykyi Burluk, Synelnykove, Zapsillya, Kupiansk): Ukrainian drone unit claims to have liquidated a Russian soldier in Vovchansk. The Ukrainian General Staff previously reported repelling two Russian attacks on the Kharkiv direction, with one engagement ongoing (reported previously). Russian sources previously claimed a strike on a Russian UAV command point near Synelnykove and the destruction of an IMR-1 and a T-72 tank near Zapsillya (reported previously). A Ukrainian source previously reported a Russian FPV drone attack on a communal service vehicle in Kupiansk, injuring a worker (reported previously). Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled a Russian assault on the Kharkiv direction (reported previously).
Sumy Oblast (Nova Sloboda, Brusky, Boyaro-Lezhachi, Starikove, Maryine, Myropilske, Novodmytrivka, Petrushivka, Bunyakino, Sukhodol, Novovasilievka, Bachevsk): Russian tactical aviation is reported to have launched guided aerial bombs towards the region, including areas of Nova Sloboda, Brusky, and Boyaro-Lezhachi (reported previously). The Ukrainian General Staff reports border settlements are suffering from cynical shelling from Russian territory, including Starikove, Maryine, Myropilske, Novodmytrivka, and Petrushivka (reported previously). The Ukrainian Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast (reported previously). RBC-Ukraine previously reported three civilian deaths and seven injured in Sumy Oblast due to Russian shelling (reported previously). Colonelcassad previously shared video claiming destruction of Ukrainian forces and assets in settlements in Sumy Oblast (Bunyakino, Sukhodol, Novovasilievka, Bachevsk). Rocket danger was announced and subsequently cleared for Sumy Oblast (reported previously).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air raid alert announced for communities in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (excluding the city of Zaporizhzhia), subsequently cleared. The Ukrainian General Staff previously reported repelling three Russian assaults on the Orikhiv direction (near Stepove and Shcherbaky) and no active Russian offensive actions on the Huliaipole direction. Russian sources previously reported hitting Ukrainian formations on the Dnipro grouping of forces direction near Novodanylivka, Pavlivka, and Kamianske. Missile danger was announced for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and subsequently cleared (reported previously).
Chernihiv Oblast (Klyusy, Gorsk): Colonelcassad previously shared video claiming the destruction of Ukrainian forces and assets in settlements in Chernihiv Oblast (Klyusy, Gorsk), specifically targeting UAV control points.
India-Pakistan Border Regions (Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Amritsar, Adampur, Rafiki Airbase, Murid Airbase, Shorkot Airbase): Continued escalation with reported strikes and explosions. India and Pakistan report exchanges involving ballistic and cruise missiles, with India claiming a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases (reported previously). Pakistan claims an Indian UAV was intercepted and destroyed over Rawalpindi (reported previously). Air defense systems are reportedly active over Islamabad (reported previously). Four explosions were reported in Amritsar, with Pakistan claiming five ballistic missiles hit the city (reported previously). Pakistan claimed one ballistic missile hit Adampur (reported previously). Pakistan claimed air defense intercepted Indian cruise missiles targeting Rafiki and Shorkot airbases (reported previously). Pakistan claimed India launched "air-to-ground" missiles at Murid and Shorkot airbases (reported previously).
Russia (Kadala airfield near Chita, Tatarstan - Naberezhnye Chelny, Kaluga Oblast - Shaikovka, Kapustin Yar Test Site): Fire reported at the Kadala airfield near Chita. Reported damage at the Shaikovka strategic aviation airfield from repeated Ukrainian UAV strikes (reported previously). Potential fire at the KamAZ plant in Tatarstan (reported previously). Airspace closed over Kapustin Yar test site from May 12th-13th, suggesting planned missile testing or activity, potentially involving "Oreshnik" type missiles and likely ballistic missile tests (reported previously).
Priazov direction: The Ukrainian General Staff previously reported no active Russian offensive actions on the Priazov direction.
Dnipro grouping of forces direction: Russian sources previously reported hitting Ukrainian formations on this direction near Novodanylivka, Pavlivka, and Kamianske.
South Donetsk direction: Russian sources claim changes in the situation on the South Donetsk direction with advances near Vesele, Volne Pole, and Novopil. Russian sources also claim advances near Shevchenko, Bogatyr, and Udachne on the South Donetsk direction.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Pervasive on both sides. Ukrainian "Flying Skull" unit claims a successful strike on a Russian soldier in Vovchansk. Russian forces attacked Nikopol district with FPV drones. Ukrainian sources previously claimed downing four Russian Supercam drones. Russian sources previously claimed the use of "Geran-2" drones in a targeted strike in Torskoye and the use of reconnaissance and strike drones to repel a Ukrainian attack near Chasiv Yar. Ukrainian sources previously reported repeated UAV strikes on the Shaikovka strategic aviation airfield. Russian sources previously reported their "Rubikon" center is actively destroying various types of Ukrainian reconnaissance drones. Russian sources previously discussed the use of helicopters (Ka-52, Mi-28NM) against Ukrainian long-range kamikaze drones. A Ukrainian source previously reported a Russian FPV drone attack on a communal service vehicle in Kupiansk. Russian sources previously claimed a strike on a Ukrainian UAV command point near Synelnykove. A drone show was previously held in Magadan Oblast for Victory Day. Russian military bloggers are previously reported to be fundraising for drones and signal amplifiers for the Kursk front. A Ukrainian source previously shared a video claiming successful work by Ukrainian Black Sea Lions 37th Separate Marine Battalion drone pilots. Archived footage previously claiming "jewelry precision" destruction of Ukrainian positions in Kharkiv Oblast by Russian UAVs is shared. Peaceful Victory Day drone shows were previously reported in Ola, Magadan Oblast. Colonelcassad previously shared video claiming the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points in Chernihiv Oblast. Pakistan previously claimed an Indian UAV was intercepted and destroyed over Rawalpindi.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Russian tactical aviation is reported to have launched guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast, including the areas of Nova Sloboda, Brusky, and Boyaro-Lezhachi (reported previously). The Ukrainian General Staff previously reported 7 aviation strikes and the dropping of 10 guided aerial bombs across various directions today. The Ukrainian Air Force previously reported repeated launches of guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast. KAB launches were previously detected towards Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts.
Missile Activity: Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a missile strike on a Russian Internal Affairs building in Glushkovo, Kursk Oblast (reported previously). Missile danger was announced for communities in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, subsequently cleared. Fast-moving targets are detected moving from southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (reported previously). Missile danger was announced and subsequently cleared for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (reported previously). Airspace closed over Kapustin Yar test site from May 12th-13th, suggesting planned missile activity, potentially involving "Oreshnik" type missiles and likely ballistic missile tests (reported previously). Reuters sources previously reported Iran is preparing to supply Fath-360 missile launch systems to Russia. Rocket danger was announced and subsequently cleared for Sumy Oblast (reported previously). India and Pakistan report exchanges involving ballistic and cruise missiles, with India claiming a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases (reported previously).
Aviation: Activity of enemy tactical aviation is reported on the eastern direction. Russian tactical aviation is reported to be active, launching guided aerial bombs (reported previously). Russian sources previously discussed the use of helicopters in counter-drone operations. Russian sources also previously mentioned NATO aircraft activity near the Black Sea coast. Possible Indian air strike on a Pakistani Air Force Base in Rawalpindi (reported previously). Pakistan previously claimed India launched "air-to-ground" missiles at multiple airbases. India previously claimed a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases. Russian military blogger shares video showing Russian military aircraft, indicating ongoing Russian aviation operations (reported previously). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of Russian aviation strike weapons being used in the Synelnykove district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (reported previously).
Naval Activity: No new significant naval engagements reported. A Ukrainian source previously shared a video claiming successful work by Ukrainian Black Sea Lions 37th Separate Marine Battalion drone pilots, suggesting continued maritime drone operations.
Air Defense Activity: Air raid alert announced and subsequently cleared for communities in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Air defense systems are actively working over Islamabad, Pakistan (reported previously). Pakistan previously claimed interception and destruction of an Indian UAV over Rawalpindi and interception of Indian cruise missiles near Shorkot.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Ceasefire Discussions: Ukraine is awaiting a response from Russia regarding a 30-day ceasefire. French President Emmanuel Macron stated that the monitoring of a potential ceasefire would be primarily led by the United States, with participation from all Europeans. Turkey has expressed readiness to undertake a monitoring mission for a potential ceasefire in Ukraine (reported previously). Discussions regarding a 30-day ceasefire proposal are ongoing, with a Ukrainian source previously reporting on the differing perspectives of the West, Ukraine, and Russia on the matter. Peskov previously reiterated that discussion of a 30-day ceasefire is impossible without considering "nuances."
Russia-Ukraine Relations: Peskov states there has been no reaction from Kyiv to Putin's offer of negotiations without preconditions. Peskov states that Russia is currently not in contact with the French President.
Russian-Chinese Relations: High-level meeting between Putin and Xi Jinping in Moscow focusing on deepening comprehensive partnership, strategic interaction, increasing trade in national currencies, a joint statement on global strategic stability, and historical narratives around WWII (reported previously). They previously expressed support for peace efforts but stressed addressing "root causes."
Turkish Diplomacy: Turkish President Erdogan is reportedly receptive to mediating peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, as suggested by former US President Trump (reported previously). Turkey has expressed readiness to undertake a monitoring mission for a potential ceasefire in Ukraine (reported previously).
Ukraine-US Relations: Ukrainian Parliament previously ratified the "minerals agreement" with the US, with plans to establish an investment fund. Contacts between Russia and the US on Ukraine and other issues are reported to occur frequently (reported previously). Ukrainian President Zelenskyy previously thanked former US President Trump for not stopping US aid, intelligence sharing, and sanctions against Russia, and expressed hope for strengthened sanctions. Donald Trump previously commented on the potential for a fair trade deal with China.
Internal Ukrainian Politics: Anatoliy Loyf, head of a key SBU directorate, has been dismissed by SBU Head Vasyl Malyuk. Recognition of military personnel with the title "Hero of Ukraine," including the Head of the SBU and fallen soldiers (reported previously). Reports of a shooting incident with multiple fatalities in Sofiivska Borshchahivka (reported previously). Bail was previously posted for Roman Nasirov, former head of the State Fiscal Service. Vice-Prime Minister Stefanishyna previously discussed Ukraine's potential timeline for EU accession. Ukrainian source previously raised concerns about Hungarian intelligence activities focused on Ukraine. Colonelcassad previously shared a video claiming to show forced mobilization in Kharkiv, an information operation focused on internal Ukrainian issues.
Internal Russian Politics: Peskov states there has been no reaction from Kyiv to Putin's offer of negotiations without preconditions. Peskov states that Russia is currently not in contact with the French President. Peskov previously commented on the discussion of a 30-day ceasefire. The Russian Ministry of Defense previously released daily figures on claimed Ukrainian losses. Celebratory events for Victory Day are widely reported across Russia (reported previously). Russian Ministry of Defense previously stated Russian forces are strictly observing a ceasefire since May 8th based on humanitarian considerations. Kadyrov_95 previously shared video of a religious gathering commemorating his father. TASS previously reported American director Oliver Stone attended a Victory Day reception in the Kremlin. TASS previously reported that Putin spent over 14 hours on May 9th in discussions with high-ranking foreign guests. TASS previously reported that Putin concluded a series of bilateral international meetings by receiving the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, in the Kremlin. TASS previously reported that the Russian Ambassador to the US, Alexander Darchiev, stated at a Victory Day reception that current and future generations should not allow Nazism to rise again, claiming it has already taken root in some countries. Details of the Putin-Fico meeting were previously reported. Colonelcassad previously shared a video about alleged Nazi atrocities in Makeyevka during WWII, reflecting a specific information operation focus. Colonelcassad previously shared a photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel and equipment around Victory Day, reinforcing the narrative of ongoing operations. ASTRA previously reported the detention of a woman in Yekaterinburg for wearing a jacket with perceived Ukrainian symbols. A Victory Day auto rally was previously held in Dokuchaevsk.
Iran-Russia Relations: Reuters sources previously reported Iran is preparing to supply launch systems for Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia in the near future.
Russia-Uzbekistan Relations: TASS previously reported that Putin concluded a series of bilateral international meetings by receiving the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, in the Kremlin.
US-China Relations: The US and China are holding talks in Geneva regarding de-escalation of the trade war. Donald Trump previously commented on potential for a fair trade deal.
India-Pakistan Conflict: Continued escalation reported with alleged strikes on military bases and explosions in cities. Conflicting claims regarding types of missiles used and success of strikes. India previously claimed a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases.
European Leaders Visit to Kyiv: TASS previously reported German Chancellor Merz, French President Macron, and UK Prime Minister Starmer have traveled to Kyiv. РБК-Україна previously confirmed and expanded this, reporting French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk are in Kyiv.
Russia-US Relations: Russian Ambassador to US previously stated reality requires restoration of normal relations and shared responsibility for global stability and security.
Poland-Ukraine Relations: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is in Kyiv as part of a high-level European delegation (reported previously).
Russia-Slovakia Relations: Details of the Putin-Fico meeting were previously reported, highlighting Fico's stance on sanctions and his promise to veto an EU ban on Russian energy imports.
Russia-Niger Relations: Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov held bilateral talks with the Defence Minister of Niger, Corps General Salifou Modi, focusing on expanding military cooperation.
Venezuela-Russia Relations: A Russian military blogger shares a video celebrating Victory Day in Caracas, highlighting perceived "brotherly ties."

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security and Attacks: Fire reported at the Kadala airfield near Chita. Reported Ukrainian missile strike on an Internal Affairs building in Glushkovo, Kursk Oblast (reported previously). Reported damage at the Shaikovka strategic aviation airfield from Ukrainian UAV strikes (reported previously). Potential fire at the KamAZ plant in Tatarstan (reported previously). The Ukrainian General Staff previously reported border settlements in Sumy Oblast are suffering from cynical shelling from Russian territory. Firework display in Reni, Odesa Oblast attributed to "partisans" by Russian sources (reported previously). Colonelcassad previously shared video claiming the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points in Chernihiv Oblast. Airspace closed over Kapustin Yar test site from May 12th-13th (reported previously). ASTRA previously reported the detention of a woman in Yekaterinburg for wearing a jacket with perceived Ukrainian symbols.
Military Performance and Capabilities: An officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports significant Russian advances southwest of Kostiantynivka and towards Yablunivka. Russian military blogger claims VDV fighters are engaging and destroying Ukrainian infantry and equipment near Tyotkino (reported previously). Russian military bloggers are fundraising for equipment for fighters on the Kursk front due to "enemy activation" (reported previously). Archived footage previously claiming "jewelry precision" destruction of Ukrainian positions in Kharkiv Oblast by Russian UAVs is shared. The Russian Ministry of Defense previously released daily figures on claimed Ukrainian losses. Russian Ministry of Defense previously stated Russian forces are strictly observing a ceasefire since May 8th based on humanitarian considerations, a claim contradicted by reports of fighting. Colonelcassad previously shared video from the Russian "Anvar" special detachment claiming the destruction of Ukrainian forces and assets in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. Airspace closed over Kapustin Yar test site from May 12th-13th, suggesting planned missile testing or activity, including likely ballistic missile tests (reported previously). Potential future acquisition of Fath-360 missile launch systems from Iran (reported previously). Colonelcassad previously shared a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion on the Orikhiv direction restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling. Promoting historical narratives of alleged atrocities to reinforce political messaging (reported previously). Engaged in military exchanges with India as reported by Pakistan (reported previously). India previously claimed a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases. Colonelcassad previously shared a photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel and equipment in the conflict zone around Victory Day. Russian sources claim advances on the Yuzhno-Donetsk direction near Vesele, Volne Pole, and Novopil. Russian sources also claim advances near Shevchenko, Bogatyr, and Udachne on the Yuzhno-Donetsk direction. Russian military blogger shares photo of a non-detonated Ukrainian shell casing with an anti-Russian inscription, potentially for propaganda.
Civilian Casualties: A 62-year-old woman was injured in Russian shelling and drone attacks in Nikopol district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. ASTRA previously reported that three people have died and seven have been injured in Russian shellings of Sumy Oblast. RBC-Ukraine previously reported three civilian deaths and seven injured in Sumy Oblast.
Information Control and Censorship: Extensive information campaigning around Victory Day is evident. Alex Parker Returns previously shared a video making a negative historical comparison between Zelenskyy and Hitler. Russian military bloggers are sharing videos promoting patriotism and emphasizing the importance of remembering the "Great feat of the Soviet people" (reported previously). TASS previously reported that the Russian Ambassador to the US, Alexander Darchiev, stated at a Victory Day reception that current and future generations should not allow Nazism to rise again, claiming it has already taken root in some countries. Colonelcassad previously shared a video about alleged Nazi atrocities in Makeyevka during WWII, a strong example of utilizing historical narratives for political messaging. Colonelcassad previously shared a video claiming to show forced mobilization in Kharkiv, an example of utilizing negative information about Ukraine. Colonelcassad previously shared a photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel and equipment around Victory Day. ASTRA previously reported the detention of a woman in Yekaterinburg for wearing a jacket with perceived Ukrainian symbols. Russian military blogger shares a photo of a non-detonated Ukrainian shell casing with an anti-Russian inscription, likely for propaganda. Russian military blogger shares a photo of a photo of Zelenskyy's grandfather with a message calling Zelenskyy a "traitor" attached to a Soviet Army monument in Berlin, a direct information operation targeting Zelenskyy's image and legacy.
Military Commemoration and Information Operations: Celebratory events for Victory Day are widely reported, including fireworks, drone shows, and auto rallies (reported previously). Cultural events, such as concerts for military personnel, are being held (reported previously). Russian sources are sharing historical reflections and using historical footage for political messaging (reported previously). Peaceful Victory Day celebrations with fireworks and drone shows were previously reported in various Russian locations. Russian military bloggers emphasize patriotism and historical narratives related to Victory Day (reported previously). TASS previously reported American director Oliver Stone attended a Victory Day reception in the Kremlin. Russian military bloggers are sharing videos promoting patriotism and emphasizing the importance of remembering the "Great feat of the Soviet people" (reported previously). Colonelcassad previously shared a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion on the Orikhiv direction restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling. Colonelcassad previously shared a video about alleged Nazi atrocities in Makeyevka during WWII. Colonelcassad previously shared a photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel and equipment around Victory Day, actively participating in information operations. A Victory Day auto rally was previously held in Dokuchaevsk. Russian military blogger shares a video celebrating Victory Day in Caracas, Venezuela, highlighting the presence of Russian symbols and perceived "brotherly ties," an example of leveraging international events for domestic and international information operations. Russian military blogger shares a photo of a photo of Zelenskyy's grandfather with a message calling Zelenskyy a "traitor" attached to a Soviet Army monument in Berlin, a targeted information operation.
Public Support for the Military: Auto rallies and fundraising efforts indicate continued public support (reported previously). Cultural events for military personnel aim to strengthen this support (reported previously). Russian military bloggers previously continued fundraising for equipment. Kadyrov_95 previously shared video of a religious gathering with strong patriotic and military undertones. Colonelcassad previously shared a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion on the Orikhiv direction restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling. Colonelcassad previously shared a photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel in the conflict zone, likely intended to bolster public support.
Law Enforcement: ASTRA previously reported the detention of a woman in Yekaterinburg.
Diplomatic Engagements: Putin previously had extensive diplomatic engagements on Victory Day, including with the President of Uzbekistan. Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov held bilateral talks with the Defence Minister of Niger.
Casualties: Russian military blogger shares a photo of a non-detonated Ukrainian shell casing with an anti-Russian inscription found by a Russian soldier, implying potential casualties. Reports of a father and son from Buryatia previously killed in the conflict. Colonelcassad shares graphic photos and commentary claiming to show the remains of a deceased Ukrainian serviceman in the area of the Sudzha checkpoint in Kursk Oblast, also claiming Russian reconnaissance units collected trophies and plan to transport the remains to Russian morgues for potential transfer to relatives in Ukraine.

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Humanitarian Situation: A 62-year-old woman was injured in Russian shelling and drone attacks in Nikopol district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and residential buildings were damaged. ASTRA previously reported civilian casualties and damage to residential and other buildings in Sumy Oblast due to Russian shellings. A Ukrainian military blogger previously shared a photo captioned "ceasefire," implying continued impacts on civilians. Confirmed civilian casualties in Sumy Oblast due to Russian shelling by RBC-Ukraine (reported previously). Colonelcassad previously shared a video claiming to show forced mobilization in Kharkiv, which could be interpreted as highlighting a perceived negative humanitarian impact on Ukrainian civilians. Colonelcassad shares graphic photos and commentary claiming to show the remains of a deceased Ukrainian serviceman in the area of the Sudzha checkpoint in Kursk Oblast, highlighting the human cost of the conflict.
Military Support: Russian military bloggers are fundraising for equipment for fighters on the Kursk front (reported previously). A Ukrainian military blogger is previously conducting a fundraising campaign for equipment for various brigades. A Russian military blogger is previously conducting a collection for marine infantrymen on the Kherson direction. Russian military bloggers previously continued fundraising for equipment. Denmark has previously announced providing almost €830 million for Ukraine's defense industry. Germany previously provided a new military aid package.
Cultural Support: Artists from Buryatia are previously conducting concerts for participants of the "SMO" in hospitals and training grounds. Colonelcassad previously shared a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling.
Infrastructure Restoration: Detailed reports on water supply restoration projects in Kryvyi Rih (reported previously).
Personnel Support: Meeting between the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War and families of captured and missing marines (reported previously). Recognition of Ukrainian military personnel with high honors (reported previously).
Fundraising: Continued fundraising efforts by military bloggers (reported previously). A Ukrainian unit claims the viewing of their video is "paid" and asks for donations for "russoriz" (likely a euphemism for anti-Russian efforts).
Support for Businesses: The head of the Kryvyi Rih defense council previously highlighted ongoing international partnership projects for reconstruction and support, including grants and loan compensation for small and medium businesses.
Educational Support: International partnership projects previously providing computer equipment to educational institutions in Kryvyi Rih.
Energy Solutions: International partnership projects previously providing energy solutions like battery stations and solar power plants in Kryvyi Rih.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Russia: Intensifying offensive operations southwest of Kostiantynivka and towards Yablunivka. Continues offensive operations on other key ground axes, utilizing artillery, guided bombs (KABs), and drones (including FPV drones). Engaging Ukrainian forces in border regions with VDV units and special detachments. Utilizing extensive information operations, particularly around Victory Day, including leveraging international events and symbols. Conducting shellings and drone attacks on Ukrainian border regions and other areas, resulting in civilian casualties and damage. Reports of advances near Romanivka, Oleksandropil, and Nova Poltavka (reported previously). Russian Ministry of Defense previously stated Russian forces are strictly observing a ceasefire since May 8th based on humanitarian considerations, a claim contradicted by reports of fighting. Airspace closed over Kapustin Yar test site from May 12th-13th, suggesting planned missile testing or activity, including likely ballistic missile tests (reported previously). Potential future acquisition of Fath-360 missile launch systems from Iran (reported previously). Colonelcassad previously shared a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion on the Orikhiv direction restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling. Promoting historical narratives of alleged atrocities to reinforce political messaging (reported previously). Engaged in military exchanges with India as reported by Pakistan (reported previously). India previously claimed a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases. Colonelcassad previously shared a photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel and equipment in the conflict zone around Victory Day. Russian sources claim advances on the Yuzhno-Donetsk direction near Vesele, Volne Pole, and Novopil. Russian sources also claim advances near Shevchenko, Bogatyr, and Udachne on the Yuzhno-Donetsk direction. Conducting military cooperation talks with Niger. Utilizing propaganda efforts around discovered Ukrainian ordnance. Utilizing information operations targeting Zelenskyy's image and legacy. Conducting reconnaissance missions in border regions and collecting enemy equipment.
Ukraine: Actively defending against Russian advances around Kostiantynivka. Continuing defensive and limited offensive operations, including reported cross-border activity. Utilizing drones for engagements, including deep strikes, counter-drone operations, and targeted strikes on personnel (including FPV drones in Vovchansk and on the Pokrovsk direction). Seeking international support and military aid. Countering Russian information operations. Experiencing shelling and drone attacks on border regions and other areas resulting in civilian casualties and damage. Experiencing internal personnel changes within the SBU. Engaging in potential military exchanges with Pakistan as reported by India (reported previously). Hosting high-level European leaders in Kyiv (reported previously). Awaiting a response from Russia regarding a ceasefire. Repelling Russian assaults on the Kharkiv direction (reported previously). Engaging in humanitarian efforts related to prisoners of war. Conducting fundraising for military equipment.
India: Engaged in military exchanges with Pakistan, claiming strikes on Pakistani airbases (reported previously).
Pakistan: Engaged in military exchanges with India, reporting on Indian strikes and claiming interceptions (reported previously).
Niger: Conducting military cooperation talks with Russia.

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The reported intensification of the Russian offensive southwest of Kostiantynivka and their stated advances in the area are a significant development, indicating a potential new focus for Russian efforts in Donetsk Oblast. Securing Kostiantynivka would be a notable strategic gain for Russia and pose a serious threat to Ukrainian positions in the Donbas. Ukraine's focus on defending this area, as reported by a Ukrainian officer, underscores its critical importance.
The continued use and effectiveness of Ukrainian FPV drones in inflicting casualties, as demonstrated by the strike in Vovchansk and on the Pokrovsk direction, highlights the ongoing adaptation of tactics in the conflict and the importance of asymmetric capabilities. This capability allows Ukraine to target Russian personnel and equipment with relatively low-cost systems.
Ukraine's public statement about awaiting a Russian response on a ceasefire, and the proposed role of the US and European countries in monitoring, indicates a level of diplomatic engagement around potential de-escalation, although the prospects for a genuine ceasefire remain uncertain given the continued fighting and conflicting narratives. The lack of direct contact between Russia and the French President, as stated by Peskov, underscores the limitations of current diplomatic channels.
The continued air raid alerts and reported activity of Russian tactical aviation on the eastern direction highlight the persistent threat of Russian aerial strikes across the front lines and in deeper rear areas. This necessitates continued focus on air defense capabilities.
Russia's military cooperation talks with Niger, as reported by the Russian Ministry of Defence, are strategically significant as they demonstrate Russia's efforts to expand its influence and partnerships in Africa, potentially impacting regional security dynamics and challenging Western interests.
The internal personnel changes within the SBU, as reported by a Ukrainian source, could have implications for the effectiveness and direction of Ukraine's security services and counterintelligence efforts. The context of the dismissal, related to alleged connections with an individual linked to a sanctioned entity, highlights potential issues of corruption or undue influence within the Ukrainian security apparatus.
The ongoing, multi-faceted Russian information operations around Victory Day, including leveraging events in other countries and employing various media, are a key component of their strategy to shape narratives, garner support, and sow discord. The targeted information operation against Zelenskyy's grandfather is a particularly pointed example of attempting to undermine his legitimacy and connection to Ukrainian history. The use of images of discovered Ukrainian ordnance with anti-Russian inscriptions is another example of utilizing battlefield findings for propaganda.
The continued shelling and drone attacks on civilian areas and infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, as reported by the regional administration, underscore the ongoing human cost of the conflict and the indiscriminate nature of some Russian strikes. This has significant humanitarian consequences and raises concerns about potential violations of international law.
The reported fire at the Kadala airfield near Chita, if confirmed to be a result of an attack or sabotage, would indicate Ukraine's continued ability to strike targets deep within Russian territory, impacting Russian aviation capabilities and potentially raising internal security concerns for Russia.
The reported escalation between India and Pakistan continues to be a significant regional development with potential implications for global security dynamics, although its direct impact on the conflict in Ukraine is not immediately clear.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report