Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 10, 2025, 12:40 UTC)
Updated Situation
The operational environment remains characterized by intense ground combat, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, and ongoing aerial activity across multiple fronts, including Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Despite Russian claims of a humanitarian ceasefire for Victory Day, both Ukrainian and Russian sources continue to report fighting and violations of any declared truce. Russian drone and guided aerial bomb strikes persist.Ukrainian forces are actively using drones, including FPV drones, to target Russian positions and equipment. Diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire continue, with a significant development being a joint call between Ukrainian and European leaders with Donald Trump leading to a proposal for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire starting Monday. Russia's initial response to this proposal, through Dmitry Medvedev and Peskov, has been highly negative and dismissive, indicating a lack of willingness to de-escalate on these terms. The escalated India-Pakistan conflict, with reports of alleged missile and aerial exchanges and an assertion of Indian hypersonic missile use, has seen a significant de-escalation with Trump announcing a full and immediate ceasefire between India and Pakistan mediated by the United States. Information operations surrounding Victory Day continue to be extensive on the Russian side, promoting patriotic narratives and showcasing military capabilities. Internal Ukrainian issues include an ongoing investigation into the leadership of the National Guard.
New significant updates from the latest messages (past hour):
India and Pakistan Confirm Ceasefire: Pakistani Vice-Premier and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and Indian sources have confirmed the full and immediate ceasefire between India and Pakistan. US Secretary of State (presumably also Rubio, based on prior messages) stated that India and Pakistan have agreed to begin broad negotiations on neutral territory. This confirms the de-escalation in the India-Pakistan conflict.
Ukrainian Border Guards Report Successful Drone Strikes Near Vovchansk: Ukrainian border guards from the "Phoenix" unit of the "Revenge" brigade report destroying several Russian vehicles ("loafs," "Ural," fuel trucks, armored vehicle), communication antennas, and a mortar near Vovchansk using drones. This provides specific evidence of Ukrainian operational activity and successful targeting of Russian assets in the Kharkiv direction despite ceasefire claims.
Russian Military Bloggers Promote Merchandise: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" is promoting and selling VDV-themed merchandise (towels and panama hats). While not a direct military action, this highlights fundraising and potentially morale-boosting efforts within the Russian military blogger community.
Ukrainian Source Comments on Russian Naval Presence in Norilsk: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing Russian sailors marching in Norilsk, satirically commenting on the relocation of some Black Sea Fleet remnants to the Arctic and their participation in "pobedobesie" (Victory obsession) while marching through puddles. This serves as a form of Ukrainian counter-information, highlighting perceived Russian military setbacks and using symbolic imagery.
Russian Military Blogger Claims Ukrainian Forces Surrendered Near Zaporizhzhia: Colonelcassad shares a video allegedly showing Ukrainian forces surrendering on the Zaporizhzhia direction "against the backdrop of the declared ceasefire by the Russian Federation." The accompanying text claims more Ukrainian soldiers are choosing life and "brotherhood" and that Russia is for peace and does not kill those who make the "right choice." This is a clear Russian information operation aimed at portraying Russian forces as magnanimous and encouraging Ukrainian surrender, leveraging the ceasefire narrative.
ASTRA Continues Fundraising Effort: ASTRA repeats its fundraising appeal for staff salaries, highlighting the challenges faced by independent media. This is relevant to the information environment surrounding the conflict.
Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)
Donetsk Oblast (including Pokrovsk, Lipovoye, Redkodub, Valentinovka, Dzerzhinsk, Romanovka, Novoolenovka, Mirolyubovka, Ulyanovka, Yelizavetovka, Troitskoye, Alekseyevka, Novoaleksandrovka, Kotlyarovka, Novosergeyevka, Veseloye, Bogatyr, Zelenoye Pole, Novopol, Alexandrovsky-Kalinovsky direction, Yablonivka, Kalinovo, Staraya Nikolaevka (Pravdovka), Gnatovka, Sukhaya Balka, Krasnoarmeysk): Continues to be a primary focus of intense ground combat. Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian infiltration attempt near Pokrovsk during the claimed ceasefire. Russian MoD claims to have repelled numerous Ukrainian attacks and inflicted losses on Ukrainian forces in various locations within Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces claim advances near Romanivka, Oleksandropil, and Nova Poltavka according to DeepState.Военкор Котенок claims advances in the Alexandrovsky-Kalinovsky direction, including fighting for Romanovka, DRGs entering Aleksandro-Kalinovo and Yablonivka, and positions west and northwest of Kalinovo being cleared and under Russian control. Fighting continues for Staraya Nikolaevka (Pravdovka), Gnatovka, and strongpoint positions between Pravdovka and Sukhaya Balka. Launches of KABs are detected towards Donetsk Oblast. Intense FPV drone activity reported on the Donetsk direction. Сливочный каприз reports positional combat in the Krasnoarmeysk area and claims Russian forces have reached Novosergiyevka and occupied new positions in the eastern part of the settlement, advancing 1.5 km. Russian sources highlight Victory Day celebrations and symbolic acts in Donetsk. STERNENKO shares a video claiming a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian target on the Pokrovsk direction.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is fundraising for vehicles for a Ukrainian unit operating near Pokrovsk.
Sumy Oblast (including Bessalovka, Pavlovka, Budki, Bunyakino, Sukhodol, Novovasilievka, Bachevsk): Subjected to Russian aerial strikes (guided aerial bombs and likely other means) and shelling of border settlements. Russian MoD claims to have inflicted losses on Ukrainian forces near Bessalovka and Pavlovka for not observing the ceasefire. Rocket danger is announced and subsequently cleared. RBC-Ukraine reports three civilian deaths and seven injured in Sumy Oblast over May 8th and 9th due to Russian shelling. Colonelcassad shares video claiming the destruction of Ukrainian forces and assets in settlements in Sumy Oblast. Launches of KABs are detected towards Sumy Oblast. Activity of enemy tactical aviation is reported on the northeastern direction.
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (including Tetkino): Remains an area of active conflict with reported Ukrainian ground offensive attempts and intense fighting near Tetkino. Russian MoD claims four attempts by Ukrainian forces to penetrate the state border and 22 attacks/reconnaissance-in-force in Kursk Oblast. Russian military bloggers report VDV fighters engaging Ukrainian forces near Tyotkino and are fundraising for equipment due to "enemy activation." North Korean leader Kim Jong Un claims the "best sons of the Korean people" are serving in Kursk Oblast and have been ordered to "liberate the districts of Kursk." Colonelcassad reports on Ukrainian losses and failure to capture Tetkino on May 9th.
Kharkiv Oblast (including Berezniki, Vovchansk): Affected by ongoing drone activity and shelling. Russian MoD claims to have repelled Ukrainian attacks near Berezniki. Archived footage claiming destruction of Ukrainian positions by Russian UAVs is shared. Reports of forced mobilization in Kharkiv are used in Russian information operations. Ukrainian border guards engaged Russian forces near Vovchansk using FPV drones, destroying equipment and eliminating personnel. Activity of enemy tactical aviation is reported on the northeastern direction. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims Russian assault before ceasefire near Vovchansk. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports Ukrainian border guards destroying Russian vehicles, antennas, and a mortar near Vovchansk using drones.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (including Novodanilovka, Bogatyr, Zelenoye Pole, Novopol, Stepnohirska community): Continues to be subjected to extensive Russian strikes. Russian MoD claims to have inflicted losses on Ukrainian forces near Novodanilovka, Bogatyr, Zelenoye Pole, and Novopol for not observing the ceasefire, and claims destruction of a US-made counter-battery radar. Missile danger is announced and subsequently cleared. Fast-moving targets from southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast are detected heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian military blogger claims volunteers restored a monument on the front line in the Orikhiv direction. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports on cooperation between communities. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming Ukrainian forces surrendered on the Zaporizhzhia direction.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Fast-moving targets from southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast are detected heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, followed by an announcement of missile danger.
Luhansk Oblast (Novoyegorovka, Luhansk city): Russian MoD claims to have repelled Ukrainian attacks near Novoyegorovka. Reports indicate potential infrastructure issues in Luhansk city, with a fountain working but residents lacking water.
Kherson Oblast (Ponyatovka): Russian MoD claims to have inflicted losses on Ukrainian forces near Ponyatovka for not observing the ceasefire.
Chernihiv Oblast (Klyusy, Gorsk): Colonelcassad shares video from the Russian "Anvar" special detachment claiming the destruction of Ukrainian forces and assets in settlements in Chernihiv Oblast, specifically targeting UAV control points.
Belgorod Oblast (Russia): Russian MoD claims four attempts by Ukrainian forces to penetrate the state border in Belgorod Oblast.
Moscow Oblast (Losino-Petrovsky): Fatal grenade incident involving a military serviceman reported.
Kapustin Yar Test Site (Astrakhan and Volgograd/Saratov Oblasts, Russia): Airspace remains closed from May 12th-13th, suggesting planned missile testing or activity.
Rawalpindi, Pakistan: Reported explosions and alleged Indian strikes on Nur Khan Air Force Base. Pakistan claims interception and destruction of an Indian UAV. Trump announces full and immediate ceasefire.Ceasefire confirmed by Pakistani and Indian sources.
Islamabad, Pakistan: Air defense systems actively working over the capital. Trump announces full and immediate ceasefire.Ceasefire confirmed by Pakistani and Indian sources.
Amritsar, India: Reported explosions and alleged Pakistani ballistic missile strikes. Trump announces full and immediate ceasefire.Ceasefire confirmed by Pakistani and Indian sources.
Adampur, India: Alleged Pakistani ballistic missile strike. Trump announces full and immediate ceasefire.Ceasefire confirmed by Pakistani and Indian sources.
Rafiki Airbase (near Shorkot, Jang district, Pakistan): Alleged Indian strikes and Pakistani claims of intercepting cruise missiles. Trump announces full and immediate ceasefire.Ceasefire confirmed by Pakistani and Indian sources.
Murid Airbase, Pakistan: Alleged Indian "air-to-ground" missile strikes. Trump announces full and immediate ceasefire.Ceasefire confirmed by Pakistani and Indian sources.
Shorkot Airbase, Pakistan: Alleged Indian "air-to-ground" missile strikes and Pakistani claims of intercepting cruise missiles. Trump announces full and immediate ceasefire.Ceasefire confirmed by Pakistani and Indian sources.
Kyiv: French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Merz, UK Prime Minister Starmer, and Polish Prime Minister Tusk are in Kyiv and participated in a telephone call with Donald Trump. High-level European delegation visit and joint statements issued. US Embassy in Kyiv issued a warning about a potential air attack around May 9th.
Donetsk (occupied): Victory Day celebrations reported. Symbolic acts like raising the Victory Banner are highlighted. Mash on Donbas reports on display of a large DPR flag for "Republic Day."
Mariupol (occupied): Victory Day events highlighted by Russian military.
Magadan Oblast (Ola, Russia): Peaceful Victory Day drone shows reported.
Mediterranean Sea: Multinational military exercise "Mediterranean Strike - 2025" is underway.
Chechnya (Gudermes District): Restored monument to internationalist soldiers opened on Victory Day.
Vietnam: Russian Navy detachment has arrived.
Tomsk (Russia): Criminal case of "state treason" against a physicist reported.
Norilsk (Russia):Video shows Russian sailors marching during Victory Day commemorations.
Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):
Drone Activity: Extensive drone activity continues on both sides. Russian MoD claims 86 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down in the past day. Ukrainian forces report Russian drone attacks across various oblasts. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for drones. Peaceful Victory Day drone shows reported in Ola, Magadan Oblast. Colonelcassad shares video claiming destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points. Pakistan claims interception and destruction of an Indian UAV. Russian military bloggers highlight the effectiveness of FPV drones. WarGonzo discusses methods to counter Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА highlights intense FPV drone activity on the Donetsk direction. Ukrainian border guards engaged Russian forces near Vovchansk using FPV drones, destroying equipment and eliminating personnel and drone launch sites. Dnevnik Desantnika reports on cluster munition bells and termit incendiary lighters from drones. STERNENKO shares a video claiming a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian target on the Pokrovsk direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian forces countering a Russian infiltration attempt near Pokrovsk using aerial reconnaissance and drones. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports Ukrainian border guards destroying Russian vehicles, antennas, and a mortar near Vovchansk using drones.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Repeated launches of KABs towards Sumy Oblast are reported. KAB launches detected towards Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. Russian MoD claims downing of a US-made JDAM guided aerial bomb.
Missile Activity: Missile danger is announced for Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Airspace closed over Kapustin Yar test site, suggesting planned missile activity. Reuters sources report Iran is preparing to supply Fath-360 missile launch systems to Russia. Rocket danger is announced and subsequently cleared for Sumy Oblast. India and Pakistan report exchanges involving ballistic and cruise missiles, with India claiming a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases. Colonelcassad comments on the effectiveness of the BrahMos hypersonic missile used by India.
Aviation Activity: Activity of enemy tactical aviation is reported on the northeastern direction. Possible Indian air strike on a Pakistani Air Force Base in Rawalpindi. Pakistan claims India launched "air-to-ground" missiles at multiple airbases. India claims a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases. US Embassy in Kyiv warned about a potential air attack around May 9th. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА interprets the US Embassy warning as a possible large-scale Russian strike, potentially including ballistic missiles.
Naval Activity: No new specific naval engagements reported within the Ukraine conflict zone. Multinational military exercise "Mediterranean Strike - 2025" is underway. A detachment of Russian ships has arrived in Vietnam. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing Russian sailors marching in Norilsk, implying a relocation of some Black Sea Fleet assets to the Arctic.
Air Defense Activity: Air defense systems actively working over Islamabad, Pakistan. Pakistan claims interception and destruction of an Indian UAV over Rawalpindi and interception of Indian cruise missiles near Shorkot. Russian MoD claims downing of a US-made JDAM guided aerial bomb and 86 UAVs.
Tactical Aviation: Activity of enemy tactical aviation is reported on the northeastern direction.
Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):
Ukraine-EU Relations: French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Merz, UK Prime Minister Starmer, and Polish Prime Minister Tusk are in Kyiv and participated in a telephone call with Donald Trump. High-level European delegation visit and joint statements issued. Joint statement from Ukrainian and European leaders emphasizes stopping bloodshed and Russia's illegal invasion, calls for a 30-day ceasefire, and discusses creating European forces for Ukraine's security. German Chancellor Merz is open to meeting Putin under certain conditions related to ending the war and achieving a ceasefire. РБК-Україна reports that the new German government has decided to classify data on arms supplies to Ukraine. NBC News reports on a 22-point ceasefire plan developed by the US, Europe, and Ukraine.
Russia-International Relations: Russian MoD reports on daily progress and ceasefire violations. Victory Day narratives continue to be promoted. Russian sources highlight Putin's diplomatic engagements. Turkey supports an unconditional ceasefire and offers a monitoring role. NATO exercise "Mediterranean Strike - 2025" is underway. A detachment of Russian ships has arrived in Vietnam. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un expresses strong support for Russia and threatens action against the West. Colonelcassad comments on the effectiveness of the Russian-Indian developed BrahMos missile. Trump announces full and immediate ceasefire between India and Pakistan mediated by the United States. TASS reports on Russian Embassy in India recommendation due to conflict. Alex Parker Returns comments on the ceasefire. Rybar comments on the 30-day ceasefire discussions.
India-Pakistan Conflict: Escalation reported with alleged strikes on military bases and explosions in cities. Conflicting claims regarding types of missiles used and success of strikes. India claims a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases. Colonelcassad comments on the use and effectiveness of the BrahMos hypersonic missile. Trump announces full and immediate ceasefire mediated by the United States. TASS reports on Russian Embassy in India recommendation due to conflict. Alex Parker Returns comments on the ceasefire. Ceasefire confirmed by Pakistani and Indian sources. US Secretary of State stated that negotiations on a broad range of issues will begin on neutral territory.
Information Operations: Both sides continue extensive information operations, particularly focused on the narrative around Victory Day and the ongoing conflict. Russia claims massive ceasefire violations and repelled incursions to portray Ukraine as the aggressor. Russian military bloggers share propaganda videos and images reinforcing pro-Russian narratives and celebrating Victory Day. Ukraine showcases rehabilitation of wounded women in Playboy as a counter-narrative and highlights Russian shelling during the claimed ceasefire. Reports of forced mobilization in Kharkiv and foreign mercenaries in Konstantinovka are used in Russian information operations. A joint statement from Ukrainian and European leaders counters Russian narratives and calls for a ceasefire and continued support for Ukraine. Russian military blogger Два майора uses a photo from Kyiv to promote a false narrative about "Nazis." North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's statement is a significant piece of information operation, aligning with the Russian narrative and raising concerns about potential involvement. Russian Ministry of Defense reports on security during Victory Day events, highlighting the scale and claiming successful public order maintenance. Colonelcassad dismisses the ceasefire proposal as aimed at prolonging the war and supporting the "Nazi regime." Mash on Donbas promotes "Republic Day" in Donetsk. Basurin comments on Navalnaya's Victory Day remarks. Kotsnews comments negatively on the Western ceasefire proposal. Voin DV shares a Victory Day greeting from a soldier's family. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming Ukrainian forces surrendered, accompanied by text promoting Russian "brotherhood" and peace, which is a form of information operation.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС uses a video of Russian sailors in Norilsk for satirical commentary on Russian military setbacks and "pobedobesie," serving as Ukrainian counter-information.
Internal Ukrainian Politics: Ukrainian National Guard leadership under investigation and suspended. Reports of forced mobilization in Kharkiv are used in Russian information operations. High-level European leaders visit Kyiv. Ukrainian military recruitment initiative "Contract 18-24" is being promoted. Ukrainian military fundraising for vehicles is underway near Pokrovsk. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha confirms joint call with European leaders and Trump and proposal for ceasefire. President Zelenskyy confirms joint call with European leaders and Trump and the proposal for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire starting May 12th.
Internal Russian Issues: Fatal grenade incident involving a military serviceman reported in Moscow Oblast. Russian military bloggers continue fundraising for equipment. Russian military blogger comments on US military appointments. Peaceful Victory Day drone shows reported. Russian military bloggers share propaganda videos and images. Russian MoD reports on daily progress and ceasefire violations. Russian Ministry of Defense reports on security during Victory Day events across Russia. Restored monument to internationalist soldiers opened in Chechnya. Reports indicate potential infrastructure issues in Luhansk (occupied), with a fountain working but residents lacking water. TASS reports death of former TV director. ASTRA reports on "state treason" case in Tomsk. Basurin comments on Navalnaya's Victory Day remarks. Colonelcassad comments on Medvedev's ceasefire remarks. Rybar comments on the 30-day ceasefire discussions. Kotsnews comments negatively on the Western ceasefire proposal. Mash on Donbas reports on DPR "Republic Day" preparations in Donetsk.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is promoting and selling VDV-themed merchandise, which can be seen as a form of supporting military culture and morale.Colonelcassad shares a video claiming Ukrainian forces surrendered, accompanied by text promoting Russian "brotherhood" and peace.ASTRA repeats its fundraising appeal for staff salaries.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing Russian sailors marching in Norilsk, implying a relocation of some Black Sea Fleet assets to the Arctic.
Turkey-Ukraine Relations: Turkish Foreign Minister supports an unconditional ceasefire and offers a monitoring role.
Turkey-Central Asia Relations: Turkey is pursuing space cooperation with Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, framed as an effort to become a technological leader and strengthen its position in Central Asia, potentially bypassing Russia.
Ukraine-US Relations: Ukrainian military officials, along with European leaders, held a telephone conversation with Donald Trump regarding peace efforts. Ukrainian Foreign Minister announces readiness for a 30-day ceasefire following the call. NBC News reports on a 22-point ceasefire plan involving the US and a condition regarding NATO membership. US Embassy in Kyiv issued a warning about a potential air attack around May 9th. Оперативний ЗСУ comments critically on the actions of Trump's special representative. Trump announces full and immediate ceasefire between India and Pakistan mediated by the United States.US Secretary of State stated that negotiations between India and Pakistan will begin on neutral territory.
Ceasefire Discussions: Ukrainian military officials, along with European leaders, held a telephone conversation with Donald Trump regarding peace efforts and announced readiness for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire starting Monday. Joint statement from Ukrainian and European leaders calls for a 30-day ceasefire. Russia claims massive ceasefire violations and states their forces are strictly observing the ceasefire, contradicting reports of fighting. Turkey supports an unconditional ceasefire and offers a monitoring role. NBC News reports on a 22-point ceasefire plan. Dmitry Medvedev dismisses the ceasefire proposal with crude language. Peskov claims Russia is not afraid of Western sanctions in response to potential threats related to the ceasefire. Colonelcassad dismisses the ceasefire proposal as unfavorable to Russia. Rybar comments on the 30-day ceasefire discussions. Kotsnews comments negatively on the Western ceasefire proposal. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha confirms joint call with European leaders and Trump and proposal for ceasefire.President Zelenskyy confirms joint call with European leaders and Trump and the proposal for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire starting May 12th.Macron and Starmer reportedly rejected Putin's conditions for a ceasefire and threatened further sanctions.
Germany-Ukraine Relations: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is in Kyiv and participated in a telephone call with Donald Trump. Joint statement issued. German Chancellor Merz is open to meeting Putin under certain conditions related to ending the war and achieving a ceasefire. РБК-Україна reports that the new German government has decided to classify data on arms supplies to Ukraine.
UK-Ukraine Relations: UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is in Kyiv and participated in a telephone call with Donald Trump. Joint statement issued. Starmer reportedly stated that if Putin refuses a ceasefire, he and Trump will increase military aid to Ukraine.
Poland-Ukraine Relations: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is in Kyiv and participated in a telephone call with Donald Trump. Joint statement issued.
Russia-Turkey Relations: Turkey supports an unconditional ceasefire in Ukraine and offers a monitoring role.
Russia-North Korea Relations: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un expresses strong support for Russia and threatens action against the West.
Russia-Vietnam Relations: A detachment of Russian ships has arrived in Vietnam.
Russia-India Relations: Colonelcassad comments on the effectiveness of the joint Russian-Indian developed BrahMos missile. Ceasefire with Pakistan confirmed.
Russia-China Relations: NBC News reports on a 22-point ceasefire plan including a condition about US non-support for Ukraine's NATO membership.
Russia-Other Countries: TASS reports on a State Duma project regarding tobacco sales.
Ukraine-Pakistan Relations:Ceasefire between India and Pakistan could indirectly impact Ukraine by potentially freeing up international attention and resources, though this is a secondary effect.
Internal Russian Issues (Updated):
Internal Security: Fatal grenade incident involving a military serviceman reported in Moscow Oblast. Russian MoD claims four attempts by Ukrainian forces to penetrate the state border in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts. Colonelcassad shares video claiming destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points near the border. Russian Ministry of Defense reports on security during Victory Day events across Russia. ASTRA reports on "state treason" case in Tomsk.
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian claims of successful offensive operations, drone effectiveness (Lancet, FPV), and repelling Ukrainian attacks. Military blogger commentary on strategies, equipment, and perceived shortcomings. Reports of units conducting training. Alleged logistical challenges hinted at through anecdotes. Actively showcasing claimed successes. Utilizing army aviation for strikes. Employing unconventional tactics such as using divers for infiltration (detected and destroyed by Ukraine). Introducing a new qualification badge for assault troops. Threatening "Oreshnik" missile strike on Kyiv if Ukraine stages provocations on May 9th. Highlighting the role of volunteer units and showcasing the awarding of servicemen. Discussing military capabilities and modernization. Engaging in military diplomacy. Reportedly improvising anti-drone defenses on vehicles. Claiming destruction of a Ukrainian vehicle during unloading. Claiming destruction of a Ukrainian quadricycle column in the Kursk border region. Russian military bloggers are claiming an absence of Ukrainian drone activity in the early hours of May 9th, while hinting at their own continued activity. Patriotic videos are being shared by Russian military bloggers. Colonelcassad shares a photo of a captured American International MaxxPro armored vehicle. Sergey Kiriyenko, First Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration, visited a volunteer unit on the Zaporizhzhia front, indicating high-level political engagement with military forces. Ukrainian GUR reports the alleged use of an unknown chemical substance by Russian forces on the Zaporizhzhia front during a close-quarters engagement. The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian tactical aviation on the northeastern direction, with a threat of aerial guided missile use for frontline regions. A TASS special correspondent and Roscosmos cosmonaut stated that participants in the "special operation" are fighting for the future of Russia and continuing the heroic traditions of courage and honor established by veterans of the Great Patriotic War. Russian military bloggers are sharing Victory Day themed artwork and messages emphasizing the continuity of heroism and sacrifice from World War II veterans to current participants in the conflict. A video message from the Russian Marine Corps command congratulating on Victory Day further reinforces this narrative within the armed forces and connects current personnel to the legacy of WWII veterans. Military parades and solemn marches featuring troops and equipment are occurring in the Russian Far East as part of Victory Day celebrations, displaying military strength. Colonelcassad shares imagery depicting military equipment and personnel, offering visual insights into the operational environment and capabilities. Colonelcassad shares a video highlighting the work of Russian sappers in demining occupied territories and explicitly linking it to historical demining efforts, portraying current operations as a continuation of heroic traditions and contributing to the narrative of liberation and restoration. «Зона СВО» shares a message that directly links the "Special Military Operation" to Victory Day and the fight against "nationalism," framing the current conflict as a patriotic duty. The Victory Day parade on Red Square is featuring over 11,000 military personnel, including 1,500 participants from the "special operation." Andrey Belousov is reviewing the parade as the new Minister of Defense. The Russian Ministry of Defense is highlighting the participation of troops from CIS countries in the Victory Day parade. Alex Parker Returns criticizes Putin's speech at the parade. TASS reports the formation of participants in the "special operation" marched in the Victory Day parade. MoD Russia highlights the participation of servicewomen in the Victory Day parade. Ukrainian border guards claim destruction of a Russian tank, ammunition depots, and trucks using drones. Russian military blogger (Старше Эдды, team of Рыбарь) are sharing art with symbolic meaning related to Victory Day and the current conflict. MoD Russia highlights the participation of young participants in the Victory Day parade. The mechanized column of the Victory Day parade has begun moving on Red Square, led by a T-34 tank. Russian Ministry of Defense highlights the historical part of the Victory Day parade, featuring WWII-era banners and battle relics carried by those who "continue of the glorious victories." A Russian military blogger reports on effective countermeasures against Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming Ukrainian forces surrendered on the Zaporizhzhia direction.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is promoting and selling VDV-themed merchandise.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing Russian sailors marching in Norilsk, implying a relocation of some Black Sea Fleet assets to the Arctic.
Civilian Casualties: RBC-Ukraine reports three civilian deaths and seven injured in Sumy Oblast over May 8th and 9th due to Russian shelling. Reports of foreign mercenaries in Konstantinovka setting up positions in residential buildings, if true, highlight risks to civilians.
Information Control and Censorship: Extensive information campaigning around Victory Day is evident. Russian MoD claims massive ceasefire violations and states their forces are strictly observing the ceasefire, which serves as information control. Russian military bloggers share propaganda videos and images reinforcing pro-Russian narratives. Reports of forced mobilization in Kharkiv and foreign mercenaries in Konstantinovka are used in Russian information operations. A joint statement from Ukrainian and European leaders counters Russian narratives and calls for a ceasefire and continued support for Ukraine. Russian military blogger Два майора uses a photo from Kyiv to promote a false narrative about "Nazis." North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's statement, shared by Russian sources, aligns with the Russian narrative and serves as information operation. Russian Ministry of Defense reports on security during Victory Day events, highlighting the scale and claiming successful public order maintenance. Colonelcassad dismisses the ceasefire proposal as aimed at prolonging the war and supporting the "Nazi regime." Mash on Donbas promotes "Republic Day" in Donetsk. Basurin comments on Navalnaya's Victory Day remarks. Kotsnews comments negatively on the Western ceasefire proposal. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming Ukrainian forces surrendered, accompanied by text promoting Russian "brotherhood" and peace, which is a form of information operation.Mash on Donbas reports on DPR "Republic Day" preparations in Donetsk.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing Russian sailors marching in Norilsk, implying a relocation of some Black Sea Fleet assets to the Arctic and satirizing "pobedobesie."
Military Commemoration and Information Operations: Victory Day narratives continue to be heavily promoted through various media. Peaceful Victory Day drone shows reported. Russian military bloggers emphasize patriotism and historical narratives. Victory Day celebrations reported in Donetsk and Mariupol. Symbolic acts like raising the Victory Banner are highlighted. Russian military bloggers share propaganda showcasing military personnel and equipment around Victory Day. Russian Ministry of Defense reports on the scale of Victory Day events and security. Restored monument to internationalist soldiers opened in Chechnya on Victory Day. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's Victory Day message includes strong support for Russia. Mash on Donbas promotes "Republic Day" in Donetsk. Voin DV shares a Victory Day greeting from a soldier's family. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is promoting and selling VDV-themed merchandise, linking it to "Airborne Brotherhood" and aligning with military commemoration.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС uses a video of Russian sailors marching in Norilsk for satirical commentary on "pobedobesie."
Public Support for the Military: Russian military bloggers continuing to fundraise for basic equipment like drones and signal amplifiers suggests potential logistical gaps or needs within some units, but also highlights continued reliance on volunteer support. Russian military bloggers share propaganda aimed at bolstering public support. Ukrainian military fundraising for vehicles is underway near Pokrovsk. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is promoting and selling VDV-themed merchandise, indicating efforts to engage the public and generate support.
Logistical Challenges: Russian military bloggers continuing to fundraise for basic equipment like drones and signal amplifiers suggests potential logistical gaps or needs within some units.
Political Dynamics: Russian military blogger comments on US military appointments reflect internal political interests. Dmitry Medvedev's crude response to the ceasefire proposal reflects a hardline political stance. Peskov's comments on sanctions reflect the official political response to potential pressure. Basurin comments on Navalnaya's Victory Day remarks, reflecting political commentary. Mash on Donbas reports on DPR "Republic Day" preparations in Donetsk, highlighting political activity in occupied territories.
International Influence: Turkey is pursuing space cooperation with Central Asian countries, which is framed as a potential challenge to Russia's influence in the region. A detachment of Russian ships has arrived in Vietnam, indicating continued efforts to project influence. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's strong statement of support and threat of military involvement highlights potential new alliances and sources of support for Russia.
Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)
Humanitarian Situation: RBC-Ukraine reports three civilian deaths and seven injured in Sumy Oblast over May 8th and 9th due to Russian shelling. Reports of foreign mercenaries in Konstantinovka setting up positions in residential buildings, if true, highlight risks to civilians. Reports indicate potential infrastructure issues in Luhansk (occupied), with residents lacking water despite a working fountain.
Military Support: Russian military bloggers are fundraising for equipment. Ukrainian military bloggers are conducting fundraising campaigns. Ukrainian military officials, along with European leaders, held a telephone conversation with Donald Trump regarding peace efforts, which likely included discussions on continued support. Joint statement from Ukrainian and European leaders emphasizes continued strengthening of support for Ukraine and discusses creating European forces for Ukraine's security. Turkey supports an unconditional ceasefire and offers a monitoring role in a potential peace process. Ukrainian military recruitment initiative "Contract 18-24" is being promoted. Ukrainian military fundraising for vehicles is underway near Pokrovsk. РБК-Україна reports that the new German government has decided to classify data on arms supplies to Ukraine. NBC News reports on a 22-point ceasefire plan. Starmer reportedly stated that if Putin refuses a ceasefire, he and Trump will increase military aid to Ukraine.ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports Ukrainian border guards destroying Russian equipment and a mortar, indicating ongoing military operations supported by existing resources.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is promoting and selling VDV-themed merchandise, which can be seen as a form of indirect support for military personnel.
Cultural Support: Ukrainian Playboy features wounded Ukrainian women to challenge narratives and highlight resilience. Victory Day celebrations and cultural events are held in Russian-controlled areas and Russia. Restored monument to internationalist soldiers opened in Chechnya on Victory Day. Mash on Donbas promotes "Republic Day" in Donetsk. TASS reports death of former TV director. Voin DV shares a Victory Day greeting from a soldier's family. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС uses a video of Russian sailors marching in Norilsk for satirical commentary on "pobedobesie," reflecting a form of cultural response to Russian narratives.
Internal Investigations (Ukraine): Ukrainian National Guard leadership under investigation and suspended.
Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)
Russia: Continues offensive operations, utilizing artillery, guided bombs, and drones. Engaging Ukrainian forces in border regions with VDV units and special detachments, including claimed attempts to penetrate the state border. Utilizing extensive information operations, particularly around Victory Day. Conducting shellings on Ukrainian border regions, resulting in civilian casualties despite claims of a ceasefire. Reports of advances near Romanivka, Oleksandropil, and Nova Poltavka, and in the Alexandrovsky-Kalinovsky direction. Russian Ministry of Defense states Russian forces are strictly observing a ceasefire since May 8th based on humanitarian considerations, a claim contradicted by reports of fighting and aerial activity. Airspace closed over Kapustin Yar test site, suggesting planned missile testing or activity, including likely ballistic missile tests. Potential future acquisition of Fath-360 missile launch systems from Iran. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion on the Orikhiv direction restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling. Promoting historical narratives of alleged atrocities to reinforce political messaging. Engaged in military exchanges with India as reported by Pakistan. India claims a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases. Colonelcassad shares a photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel and equipment in the conflict zone, providing visual evidence of Russian forces. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un claims the "best sons of the Korean people" are serving in Kursk Oblast alongside Russian forces and have been ordered to "liberate the districts of Kursk," raising concerns about potential North Korean military involvement. Russian Ministry of Defense reports on security during Victory Day events, highlighting the scale of personnel involved. A detachment of Russian ships has arrived in Vietnam. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims Russian assault before ceasefire near Vovchansk. Colonelcassad reports on Ukrainian losses and failure to capture Tetkino on May 9th. Dnevnik Desantnika reports on cluster munitions. Rybar comments on the tactical implications of the ceasefire. STERNENKO shares a video claiming a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian target. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports Ukrainian border guards destroying Russian vehicles, antennas, and a mortar near Vovchansk using drones, indicating ongoing Russian military presence and tactics in this area.Colonelcassad shares a video claiming Ukrainian forces surrendered on the Zaporizhzhia direction, which is presented as a tactical success.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing Russian sailors marching in Norilsk, potentially implying a strategic relocation or redeployment of some naval assets.
Ukraine: Continuing defensive and limited offensive operations, including reported cross-border activity and counter-infiltration efforts. Utilizing drones for engagements, including maritime drone operations and FPV drones. Seeking international support and military aid. Countering Russian information operations. Experiencing shelling of border regions resulting in civilian casualties. Ukrainian sources raise concerns about Hungarian intelligence activities. Engaged in potential military exchanges with Pakistan as reported by India. Hosting high-level European leaders in Kyiv. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show forced mobilization in Kharkiv, an alleged tactic being employed by Ukraine. Ukrainian border guards engaged Russian forces near Vovchansk using FPV drones, destroying equipment and eliminating personnel. Ukrainian military recruitment initiative "Contract 18-24" is being promoted. Ukrainian military fundraising for vehicles is underway near Pokrovsk. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian forces countering a Russian infiltration attempt near Pokrovsk using aerial reconnaissance and drones. STERNENKO shares a video claiming a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian target on the Pokrovsk direction. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha confirms joint call with European leaders and Trump and proposal for ceasefire. President Zelenskyy confirms joint call with European leaders and Trump and the proposal for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire starting May 12th. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports Ukrainian border guards destroying Russian vehicles, antennas, and a mortar near Vovchansk using drones, highlighting Ukrainian tactical actions.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian forces countering a Russian infiltration attempt near Pokrovsk, demonstrating defensive tactics.
Strategic Considerations (Updated)
The coordinated diplomatic push for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire by Ukraine and key European leaders, including a joint call with Donald Trump, represents a significant strategic maneuver aimed at creating a window for de-escalation and peace talks. This initiative, if successful, could fundamentally alter the trajectory of the conflict.
Russia's immediate and highly negative response to the ceasefire proposal, particularly the crude dismissal by Dmitry Medvedev and Peskov's assertion of not fearing sanctions, strongly indicates a lack of current willingness by the Russian leadership to engage in meaningful de-escalation or negotiations on terms proposed by Ukraine and its allies. This suggests continued military pressure from Russia is likely. The reported rejection of Putin's conditions for a ceasefire by Macron and Starmer further highlights the diplomatic impasse.
The continued fighting and civilian casualties in Sumy and potentially other border regions, as reported by Ukrainian and even some Russian sources (implicitly through claims of repelling attacks), directly contradict Russian claims of a humanitarian ceasefire and highlight the ongoing human cost and the disparity between declared intentions and reality on the ground.
The claims of Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast, corroborated by DeepState and Russian military bloggers, underscore that despite diplomatic efforts, active combat operations are ongoing and Russia is pursuing territorial gains in key areas.
The escalation of the India-Pakistan conflict, with reported missile and aerial exchanges and claims of hypersonic missile use, adds a significant layer of regional instability and demonstrates the potential for concurrent international crises to impact global attention and resources. Colonelcassad's analysis of the BrahMos missile's effectiveness in this conflict has implications for the proliferation and strategic significance of hypersonic weapons. Trump's announcement of a full and immediate ceasefire between India and Pakistan, mediated by the United States, represents a significant de-escalation in this regional conflict, potentially freeing up international attention and resources and reducing global tensions.The agreement for broad negotiations on neutral territory suggests a move towards more stable peace.
The statements by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, expressing strong support for Russia and threatening military action against the West, coupled with claims of North Korean forces in Kursk Oblast, are highly significant. While requiring independent verification, these statements align with Russian narratives and raise concerns about potential North Korean military involvement, which would have significant strategic implications.
The ongoing internal investigation and suspension of National Guard leadership in Ukraine related to alleged corruption is a critical internal development that could impact the integrity and effectiveness of Ukrainian military structures and requires transparent handling to maintain public and international confidence and support.
Turkey's expressed support for an unconditional ceasefire and offer to monitor it introduces a potentially important non-NATO actor into the peace process and could provide an avenue for de-escalation if Russia is willing to engage.
The continued Russian information operations surrounding Victory Day, including efforts to link the current conflict to historical narratives and delegitimize Ukraine and its allies, remain a crucial aspect of the conflict and require sustained counter-narrative efforts from Ukraine and its international partners. The use of videos claiming Ukrainian surrender by Russian military bloggers is a direct information operation tactic aimed at undermining Ukrainian morale and support.
The fatal grenade incident in Moscow Oblast highlights potential internal security issues and the psychological impact of the conflict on returning military personnel within Russia, which could have broader societal and military implications.
The multinational military exercise "Mediterranean Strike - 2025" demonstrates continued NATO readiness and focus on maritime security in the strategically important Mediterranean Sea, signaling capabilities and presence in the broader region.
The promotion of Ukrainian military recruitment initiatives and fundraising efforts underscores the ongoing need for personnel and logistical support for Ukrainian forces, highlighting the resource demands of the conflict. Russian military bloggers promoting merchandise can also be seen as a form of fundraising and morale support.
The reported arrival of a Russian Navy detachment in Vietnam indicates Russia's continued efforts to maintain naval presence and diplomatic/military engagement in the Asia-Pacific region, potentially as a counterpoint to Western influence or to secure strategic partnerships. The video of Russian sailors in Norilsk, if accurately implying a relocation from the Black Sea, could be a strategic shift in naval posture.
Reports of potential infrastructure issues in occupied Luhansk, if accurate, could highlight challenges in administering occupied territories and provide information points for Ukraine.
The willingness of German Chancellor Merz to potentially meet with Putin under certain conditions suggests a level of openness to high-level dialogue from a key European leader, even amidst the current tensions and the immediate negative Russian response to the ceasefire proposal.
The potential inclusion of a condition regarding US non-support for Ukraine's NATO membership in the reported 22-point ceasefire plan from NBC News indicates a potential point of compromise or contention in future negotiations and highlights the ongoing strategic debate surrounding Ukraine's future security alignment.
РБК-Україна reporting that the new German government has decided to classify data on arms supplies to Ukraine is a strategic move aimed at increasing unpredictability for Russia regarding military aid and could impact operational planning by both sides.
The ASTRA report on the "treason" case in Tomsk highlights the broad scope of internal security measures in Russia and their potential impact on scientific and technological development, which could have long-term strategic implications.
The critical commentary from Оперативний ЗСУ regarding Trump's special representative's actions in negotiations raises concerns about the effectiveness and potential vulnerabilities of the diplomatic process itself, which is a critical element of the overall strategic landscape.
The Russian claims of a tactical assault before the ceasefire near Vovchansk, if true, indicate a potential preemptive offensive maneuver aimed at gaining ground before a potential pause in hostilities.
Dnevnik Desantnika's report on cluster munitions highlights a continued tactical approach and the humanitarian consequences of the conflict.
Rybar's analysis of the ceasefire proposal suggests a strategic assessment from the Russian military blogger community that views the proposal with suspicion and expects it to be used by Ukraine to improve its military posture.
The US Embassy warning in Kyiv about a potential air attack around May 9th, and Russian military bloggers' interpretation of it, highlights the ongoing tension and the anticipation of potential large-scale strikes, which influences defensive preparations and risk assessments.
