Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 10, 2025, 09:40 UTC)
Updated Situation
The operational environment remains characterized by intense ground combat and significant aerial activity across multiple fronts, including Donetsk Oblast, the Kursk border region, and areas around Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. Despite claimed ceasefires for Victory Day, fighting persists, particularly in contested border areas. Russian drone and guided aerial bomb strikes remain a significant threat to Ukrainian civilian and military infrastructure. Ukrainian deep strikes targeting Russian industrial and logistical assets continue to cause disruptions and prompt increased security measures in Russia. Information operations surrounding Victory Day remain prevalent, with both sides promoting competing narratives and highlighting military capabilities and diplomatic engagements. Diplomatic activity continues, including high-level visits to Kyiv and Moscow and discussions on international support and conflict resolution. The escalated India-Pakistan conflict adds a layer of regional instability. Internal security issues and socio-political dynamics in both Ukraine and Russia are also being reported.
New significant updates from the latest messages (past hour):
Russian State Media Highlights Practice of "Wailing Shows" in Russia: A video from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on the alleged rise in popularity of "musical shows - training for mourning fallen soldiers" in Russia, claiming such practices have even been conducted in schools. This suggests a potential effort within Russia to normalize and even ritualize the mourning of military casualties, likely as a form of psychological preparation or propaganda.
Russian State Media Reports on Volcanic Activity in Kamchatka: TASS reports that the Karymsky volcano in Kamchatka has ejected ash up to 3.5 km high. While not directly related to the conflict, this is an example of natural events occurring in Russia that could potentially impact infrastructure or logistics in the Far East, although the impact from this specific event appears limited.
Russian State Media Reports on Scientific Breakthrough at Large Hadron Collider: Новости Москвы reports on scientists learning to turn lead into gold at the Large Hadron Collider, although the amount produced is minuscule. This is a scientific development unrelated to the conflict but highlights Russian scientific endeavors.
Ukrainian Source Reaffirms German Decision to Classify Arms Deliveries: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reiterates the report from Spiegel that future German arms deliveries to Ukraine will be classified. This confirms the information and its significance regarding a potential shift in Germany's transparency on military aid.
Russian MoD Reports on Meeting with Uzbek Counterpart and Strategic Partnership Plan: The Russian Ministry of Defence reports on the meeting between Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov and his Uzbek counterpart Shukhrat Khalmukhamedov. They discussed historical cooperation and signed a plan for the implementation of a program of strategic partnership in the military sphere for 2026-2030. This highlights continued Russian military diplomacy and efforts to strengthen ties with Central Asian nations. Belousov's comments emphasize the historical contribution of the Uzbek SSR to victory in World War II and the naturalness of Uzbek participation in the Victory Parade, reinforcing the historical narrative.
Russian Military Blogger Shares Photos of Personnel and Equipment, Including Tactical Gear and Symbolic Items: Fighterbomber shares a series of photos, including images of personnel in military gear, cases of tactical headlamps, a tactical watch, batteries, socks, and a St. George ribbon displayed in a cockpit. The photos suggest a focus on providing essential equipment to personnel and incorporating symbolic items (St. George ribbon) for morale or propaganda. The presence of CDEK shipping boxes indicates the use of civilian logistics channels. The image in a cockpit with Cyrillic labels confirms the Russian origin of the aircraft and pilot.
Russian Military Blogger Reports on Alleged Ukrainian Shelling of Energodar: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that Ukrainian forces are allegedly shelling the civilian city of Energodar with artillery. This is a claim of Ukrainian action impacting civilian areas, likely used in Russian information operations.
Russian State Media Reports on "Cosmos-482" Satellite Deorbit and Crash: TASS reports that the Soviet-era "Cosmos-482" satellite, launched in 1972, has deorbited and fallen into the Indian Ocean after over 50 years in orbit. This is a historical space-related event unrelated to the conflict.
Russian Military Blogger Shares Videos of Victory Day Events in Moldova: Colonelcassad shares videos of a May 9th action and a 100-year-old veteran laying flowers at the Eternal Flame in Chisinau, Moldova. This highlights Victory Day commemorations in Moldova and is likely used in Russian information operations to showcase historical ties and sentiment in other countries.
Ukrainian Source Reports on Extensive Destruction in Vovchansk: РБК-Україна shares photos showing extensive destruction in Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, described as after a year of Russian offensive. Ukrainian military personnel from the 34th Separate Motorized Infantry Battalion describe the fighting as "war in holes" in the ruins and share a photo claiming to show Russian prisoners of war at an "Aggregate plant." This provides visual evidence of the intensity of fighting in this area and its devastating impact on infrastructure, confirms active combat, and highlights the capture of prisoners by Ukrainian forces.
Russian Military Blogger Uses Derogatory Language Towards European Leaders Visiting Kyiv: Два майора shares a message from Dmitry Medvedev using highly derogatory and threatening language towards European leaders visiting Kyiv, calling them "typhoid louse with a cocaine nose" and suggesting their safety cannot be guaranteed. TASS also reports on Medvedev's statement, contrasting Russia's actions with alleged Ukrainian terrorism. This is a significant escalation in Russian rhetoric and psychological warfare targeting international support for Ukraine and aiming to intimidate foreign officials.
Ukrainian Source Reports on NABU Search at National Guard Headquarters: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and STERNENKO report that the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) conducted a search at the Headquarters of the National Guard of Ukraine on May 9th, reportedly related to tender violations. This indicates ongoing internal investigations related to potential corruption within Ukrainian military structures.
Russian Military Blogger Reports on Indian-Pakistan Military Deployments and Claims: WarGonzo reports on the escalation between India and Pakistan, stating that Pakistani troops have moved to the border and detailing claimed military actions and statements from both sides. This reinforces the information about the escalating India-Pakistan conflict and its potential for wider regional instability.
Russian Source Comments on Germany Potentially Classifying Military Supplies to Ukraine: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition comments on the report that Germany wants to classify the nomenclature of military supplies to Ukraine, suggesting it's to create "strategic ambiguity and hide information from the enemy" and raising the question of whether Taurus missiles will be secretly transferred. This highlights the perceived strategic implications of Germany's reported decision from a Russian perspective.
Ukrainian Source Comments on "Cosmos-482" Deorbit: Оперативний ЗСУ comments on the deorbit and fall of the Soviet-era "Cosmos-482" satellite, describing it as a "Soviet piece of iron." This is a similar report to TASS but with a different tone.
Ukrainian Source Reports on Alleged Abduction and Beating of a Veteran in Kharkiv by Military Commissars: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that military commissars in Kharkiv allegedly abducted and beat a veteran of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, breaking his jaw, and refused to allow police and an ambulance entry. If true, this highlights potential issues within the Ukrainian military recruitment system and human rights concerns.
Russian State Media Reports on Slovak Prime Minister's Visit to Moscow: TASS reports that Slovak Prime Minister Fico described his trip to Moscow as "extremely successful" and a manifestation of sovereign Slovak foreign policy. This indicates continued diplomatic engagement between Russia and some European nations.
Russian Military Blogger Comments on Potential Nuclear Weapon Use by Pakistan: Colonelcassad comments on the statement by Pakistan that the question of using nuclear weapons is not currently being raised but could be in the near future if escalation continues. The blogger interprets this as saber-rattling but notes that nuclear use could become possible if Pakistan faces significant territorial losses. This highlights the potential for extreme escalation in the India-Pakistan conflict.
Ukrainian Source Reports on Stage of Sending "Coalition of the Willing" Troops to Ukraine: РБК-Україна reports that the head of the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Jean-Noël Barrot, stated that discussions on sending troops from the "coalition of the willing" to Ukraine are progressing, with army commanders coordinating with the Ukrainian Armed Forces. He mentioned progress on security agreements covering sea, air, and land to deter aggression. This indicates ongoing serious discussions and planning among Ukraine's partners regarding potential direct military assistance.
Russian Military Blogger Shares Photo and Text About a Sign Left for Zelenskyy's Grandfather in Berlin: Kotsnews shares a photo of a sign placed at a monument to Soviet soldiers in Berlin with a photo of Zelenskyy's grandfather and the text "Comrades, forgive the traitor grandson." The accompanying text provides historical details about Zelenskyy's grandfather's military service in WWII. This is a clear Russian information operation attempting to discredit Ukrainian leadership by associating them with historical "traitors" and leveraging the symbolism of Victory Day.
Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)
Donetsk Oblast (including Lipovoye, Vesele, Bakhmut, Siversk, Bilohorivka, Krasnohorivka, Mar'yinka, Dzerzhinsk, Novoolekhandrivka, Ivanopillia, Chasiv Yar, Predtechyne, Shcherbynivka, Toretsk, Dyliivka, Pokrovsk, Malynivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Zvirove, Udachne, Novoserhiivka, Nadiivka, Bohdanivka, Andriivka, Bahatyr, Oleksiivka, Nova Poltavka, Kotliarivka, Novosilka, Vilne Pole, Novopil, Kostyantynopil, Velyka Novosilka, Staromayorske, Staromlynivka, Mykilske, Paraskoviivka, Kostiantynivka, Tarasivka, Novoolenivka, Oleksandropil, Guyevo-Gornal, Богатырь, Energodar): Continues to be a primary focus of intense ground combat. Russian MoD claims the liberation of Lipovoye. Fierce fighting reported across multiple directions, including Pokrovsk, Lyman, and Novopavlivka (Ukrainian General Staff). Russian sources claim advances in Nova Poltavka and occupation in Dvurechnaya. Russian forces claim establishing control over Novoolekhandrivka and areas near Tarasivka and Novoolenivka. Ukrainian forces are facing difficult conditions in certain areas (Siversk). Russian military bloggers report on ongoing battles near Bogatyr and Otradne. Ukrainian forces repelled numerous Russian assaults across various sub-directions within Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian drone operators are reportedly effective in this area. Russian military bloggers claim artillery and drone effectiveness against Ukrainian forces and infrastructure. Ukrainian sources report on the destruction of a Soviet monument in Mar'yinka. Kryvyi Rih is providing military aid to units in the Donetsk Republic, including "Akhmat" special forces. Russian military blogger reports ongoing positional battles near Bogatyr with Russian forces approaching residential areas and having advanced along the highway. Russian military blogger claims Ukrainian strike on a school in Sopychi, Bryansk Oblast. Russian military bloggers highlight the effectiveness of Lancet and Z-16 drones in the Kursk area. Russian Naval Infantry reportedly restored a monument in Ozerki. Russian military blogger claims Ukrainian ceasefire violations and attempts to break through the border. Russian military blogger claims Ukrainian shelling of Energodar.РБК-Україна reports on extensive destruction in Vovchansk, including a photo claiming to show Russian prisoners of war at an "Aggregate plant."
Kharkiv Oblast (including Velykyi Burluk, Vovchansk, Vovchanski Khutory, Kamyanka, Kupyansk, Hlushkivka, Nova Kruhliakivka, Zahryzove, Izium, Lyptsi): Affected by missile strikes (Velykyi Burluk) and ongoing drone activity. Russian forces continue ground assaults on multiple axes (Vovchansk, Kupyansk). Ukrainian forces are actively defending and repelling attacks. Demining efforts are underway due to extensive contamination. Ukrainian forces have reportedly liberated a forest area near Lyptsi, inflicting significant casualties on Russian forces. Ukrainian military bloggers highlight drone operator actions in the Kharkiv direction, including the destruction of a tank. РБК-Україна reports on extensive destruction in Vovchansk, including a photo claiming to show Russian prisoners of war at an "Aggregate plant."Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on alleged abduction and beating of a veteran in Kharkiv by military commissars.
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (Tetkino, Novyy Put', Glushkovo, Sudzha, Ryzhivka, Boyaro-Lezhachi, Popovo-Lezhachi, Markovo, Guyevo-Gornal, Ozerki, Sopychi): Remains an area of active conflict with reported Ukrainian ground offensive attempts and intense fighting near Tetkino and Novyy Put'. Ukrainian forces are conducting active operations in the Kursk region according to the Ukrainian President. Russian sources report repelling attacks and inflicting losses, including destruction of armored vehicles and capture of POWs (conflicting reports on territorial control). Ukrainian drone attacks have reportedly caused civilian casualties. A civilian fatality resulted from a mine explosion near Markovo. Russian military bloggers report continued fighting despite the ceasefire and highlight the use of FABs and various drones in the area. Russian border guards are reportedly active. Russian military blogger claims Ukrainian forces continue to attempt attacks on Tetkino. Russian military blogger claims Ukrainian strike on a school in Sopychi, Bryansk Oblast. Russian military bloggers highlight the effectiveness of Lancet and Z-16 drones in the Kursk area. Russian Naval Infantry reportedly restored a monument in Ozerki. Russian military blogger claims Ukrainian ceasefire violations and attempts to break through the border. Russian military blogger claims Ukrainian forces continue to attempt attacks on Tetkino from Sumy Oblast.
Sumy Oblast (Iskriskivshchina, Rechki, Yablonovka, Yunakovka, Miropolye, Turya, Sorokino, Korenek, Novovasilievka, Baranovka, Pavlovka, Okhtyrka, Lebedyn, Konotop, Ryzhivka, Boyaro-Lezhachi, Starikove, Maryine, Myropilske, Novodmytrivka, Petrushivka, Середина Буда, Нововасильевка, Хутор Михайловский, Толстодубово, Василевское, Nova Sloboda, Brusky, Budky, Iskryskivshchyna): Subjected to Russian aerial strikes (guided aerial bombs) and shelling of border settlements. Drone movement reported towards other oblasts. Ukrainian forces are reportedly attempting to break through Russian defenses near the border. Russian forces claim to be clearing forest belts. Russian military blogger reports Ukrainian forces attempting to attack Tetkino from Sumy Oblast. Russian military blogger claims Ukrainian forces continue to attempt attacks on Tetkino from Sumy Oblast.Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and РБК-Україна report repeated launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast.
Moscow and Moscow Oblast (Russia) (including Krasnoarmiysk, Kubinka, Domodedovo, Vnukovo, Zhukovsky, Sheremetyevo, Podolsk): Targeted by Ukrainian drone attacks on industrial facilities and airfields. Temporary restrictions and disruptions to air travel continue at multiple airports due to attacks and security measures. Russian authorities claim high numbers of drone interceptions. Ka-52 helicopters are reportedly used for drone interception. Enhanced drone spotting measures are being implemented. Potential disruptions to mobile internet and taxi services have been reported. Fatal grenade incident occurred in a residential building stairwell.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Zaporizhzhia, Novodarivka, Temyrivka, Olhivske, Hulyaypole, Malynivka, Mala Tokmachka, Kamyanske, Vysoke, Verbove, Novopil, Stepove, Mali Scherbaky, Novoandriyivka, Shcherbaky, Polohy, Energodar): Continues to be subjected to extensive Russian strikes (aviation, drones, MLRS, artillery), resulting in casualties and damage to civilian and critical infrastructure. Ukrainian forces are actively engaged in defense and utilizing drones effectively. Russian sources claim Ukrainian fiber-optic guided drone use and destruction of Ukrainian UAV command posts. Power infrastructure has been impacted. Ukrainian military effectiveness on the Zaporizhzhia front is being highlighted. Russian official has visited Energodar and asserted control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Russian military blogger claims Ukrainian shelling of Energodar.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (including Nikopol district, Pokrovska hromada, Synelnykove district, Kryvyi Rih): Subjected to Russian artillery and drone attacks (Nikopol district), and guided aerial bomb strikes (Pokrovska hromada, Synelnykove district), resulting in damage and injuries. Improvements to medical rehabilitation facilities for military personnel are underway in Kryvyi Rih. Russian forces attacked Nikopol district with artillery and FPV drones, damaging infrastructure and houses.
Kherson Oblast (including Kakhovka, Hola Prystan, Brylivka, Olhivka, Novooleksandrivka, Hola Prystan', Tarasivka, Nova Kakhovka, Dnipryany, Kozatske, Кінбурнська коса): Russian aviation conducted airstrikes. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults. Russian sources claim prevention of terrorist attacks and report on a Ukrainian strike on a monument. Russian military bloggers highlight the effectiveness of FPV drones and naval infantry drone operators. Civilian casualties from shelling have been reported in Nova Kakhovka and surrounding areas. Ukrainian forces are reportedly attempting a landing near the Antonovsky bridge and striking the Kinburn Spit. A resident of Kherson was killed by a Russian drone attack. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for naval infantry drone operators on the Kherson direction.
Lyman Direction (Hryhorivka, Bilohorivka, Lypove, Nadiya, Zelenyy Hay, Ridkodub, Yampolivka, Torske, Novy Myr, Zelena Dolyna, Kolodyazi): Remains a direction of active combat with Russian forces attempting to advance. Ukrainian forces are defending and repelling assaults. Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down 619 drones in this area in April.
Siversk Direction (Hryhorivka, Bilohorivka): Russian forces continue to attempt to break through Ukrainian defenses.
Kramatorsk Axis (Kurdyumivka, Chasiv Yar): Ongoing battles with Russian forces attempting to advance.
Toretsk Axis (Dachne, Druzhba, Toretsk, Кримського): Ongoing combat with Russian forces attempting to advance.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia Front - Stepove, Mali Scherbaky, Kamyanske, Novoandriyivka, Shcherbaky): Positional battles continue with Russian forces attempting assaults.
Belgorod Oblast (Russia) (Shebekino, Grafovka, Cheremoshnoye, Saltykovo, Berezovka, Bogun-Gorodok, Starye Yurkovichi, Sluchevsk): Affected by reported Ukrainian strikes (including FPV drones) resulting in civilian casualties according to Russian sources. Russian authorities claim to have repelled a massive Ukrainian strike. Ukrainian forces are conducting active operations in the Belgorod region according to the Ukrainian President. Russian military blogger claims Ukrainian ceasefire violations and attempts to break through the border.
Bryansk Oblast (Russia) (Starye Yurkovichi, Sluchevsk, Sopychi): Affected by reported Ukrainian FPV drone attacks causing civilian casualties according to Russian sources. Russian authorities claim to have repelled a massive Ukrainian strike. Russian military blogger claims Ukrainian strike on a school in Sopychi. Russian military blogger claims Ukrainian ceasefire violations and attempts to break through the border.
Saransk (Mordovia, Russia): Targeted by Ukrainian drone attacks on industrial facilities (optical fiber and likely "Saranskkabel" machine-building plants), resulting in fires.
Tula Oblast (Russia): Reportedly targeted by Ukrainian drone attack on the "Splav" plant (MLRS manufacturer).
Nizhny Novgorod Oblast (Russia) (Kulebaksky district): Targeted by a drone attack causing minor damage.
Vladimir Oblast (Russia) (Alexeevsky district): A drone reportedly fell with no casualties.
Vologda Oblast (Russia) (Cherepovetsky district): Two aircraft-type UAVs were reportedly shot down.
Lipetsk Oblast (Russia): Air raid alert issued due to a UAV threat.
India-Pakistan Border (Jammu and Kashmir): Significant escalation of conflict with reported missile exchange. WarGonzo reports on the escalation and military deployments at the border.Colonelcassad comments on the potential for nuclear weapon use.
Mariupol: Reported celebrations for Victory Day and efforts towards restoration. Russian military highlights Victory Day events in Mariupol.
Zaporizhzhia: Issuing of a commemorative stamp for Mother's Day featuring a soldier and woman.
Carpathian Mountains: Experiencing winter conditions with low temperatures and snow.
Sloviansk: Electricity cut off following night strikes, likely due to a substation hit.
Teplice (Czech Republic): Reported vandalism of a Soviet monument, leading to a Russian Investigative Committee case.
Astana (Kazakhstan): Military parade for Victory Day held for the first time in 8 years, with participation of Russian military personnel.
Makhachkala (Dagestan, Russia): Reports of a shooting incident involving traffic police and highlighting the heroism of a police officer.
St. Petersburg (Russia): Venezuelan President Maduro arrived and visited a memorial cemetery.
Kamchatka (Russia): Volcanic activity reported at Karymsky volcano.
Moldova (Chisinau): Victory Day commemorations are taking place.
Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):
Drone Activity: Continued widespread and intense drone activity by both sides. Russian forces continue large-scale drone attacks on Ukrainian urban centers and infrastructure, with claims of high numbers of intercepted Ukrainian UAVs over Russia (524 over the past day, over 140 in Bryansk). Ukrainian forces continue deep strikes into Russian territory targeting industrial and military facilities (Saransk, Tula, Moscow/Kaluga airfields, Krasnoarmiysk). Ukrainian drone attacks have reportedly caused civilian casualties in Russian border regions. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for EW systems and anti-drone armor/equipment. Ka-52 helicopters are reportedly used for drone interception near Moscow. Ukrainian forces claim significant destruction of Russian UAVs (619 on the Lyman direction in April). Ukrainian forces are utilizing hexacopters and battery packs on the Zaporizhzhia front. Russian military bloggers highlight the effectiveness of Lancet and Z-16 drones in the Kursk area. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for naval infantry drone operators on the Kherson direction. A resident of Kherson was killed by a Russian drone attack. Russian forces used FPV drones in attacks on Nikopol district. Russian military blogger claims Ukrainian ceasefire violations including drone use. Fighterbomber shares photos of tactical headlamps, a tactical watch, batteries, and socks, likely for drone operators or other personnel.АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video highlighting drone operator actions in the Kharkiv direction.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on alleged Ukrainian shelling of Energodar with artillery, implying potential drone reconnaissance.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Russian aviation continues to conduct airstrikes with guided aerial bombs on settlements in Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Russian forces continue to utilize KABs in frontline regions and border areas (Kursk). Russian military bloggers report on the use of FABs with UMPK in Kursk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and РБК-Україна report repeated launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast.
Aviation Activity: Russian tactical aviation remains active, conducting numerous air and aviation strikes, including with guided aerial bombs, in frontline and border regions. Ukrainian drone attacks reportedly targeted Russian military airfields in Moscow and Kaluga Oblasts. Russian military bloggers speculate about foreign involvement in Ukrainian aviation. Russian Su-34 crew were awarded. Belarusian Victory Day parade included participation of Russian Air Force aviation. Russian military blogger claims Ukrainian ceasefire violations including aviation use. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and РБК-Україна report repeated launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast.Fighterbomber shares a photo taken inside a Russian aircraft cockpit.
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Continued high number of Russian shelling incidents reported by Ukrainian forces across various fronts, including MLRS attacks. Russian forces conducted massive artillery shelling in the Kherson Oblast (Nova Kakhovka and surroundings). Russian sources report alleged Ukrainian artillery and MLRS violations. Russian military bloggers highlight the effectiveness of Russian artillery and MLRS systems (TOS-2, Grad, Giatsint-S, Krasnopol) and claim destruction of Ukrainian artillery and MLRS (HIMARS, JDAM). Russian military blogger claims Ukrainian ceasefire violations including artillery use. Russian forces used artillery in attacks on Nikopol district. Russian military bloggers report positional battles near Bogatyr with Ukrainian shelling. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on alleged Ukrainian shelling of Energodar with artillery.
Naval Activity: No significant changes in naval activity reported in the latest updates, apart from the fundraising effort for marine infantry drone operators on the Kherson direction by Russian military bloggers and previous reports of limited Russian naval presence in the Black and Azov Seas. Ukrainian forces reportedly detected and destroyed Russian divers on the Donetsk direction and are attempting a landing near the Antonovsky bridge.
Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):
Ukraine-EU Relations: High-level European leaders visited Kyiv. Discussions are ongoing regarding Ukraine's accession to the EU and further steps for integration. Macron threatened increased EU pressure on Russia if a ceasefire is not accepted. Germany is reportedly classifying future arms deliveries to Ukraine. A meeting of the "Coalition of the Willing" is taking place in Kyiv. Jean-Noël Barrot states that discussions on sending troops from the "coalition of the willing" to Ukraine are progressing.Russian military blogger Dmitry Medvedev used highly derogatory and threatening language towards European leaders visiting Kyiv.STERNENKO and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report on a NABU search at the Headquarters of the National Guard of Ukraine.
Russia-International Relations: High-level foreign leaders are arriving in Moscow for Victory Day celebrations, including from BRICS nations and other countries. Russian Defence Minister held talks with counterparts from Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Russia is prioritizing ties with Africa. Peskov commented on European nervousness regarding Victory Day consolidation and dismissed the impact of sanctions. Russian Defence Minister met with Uzbek counterpart and signed a strategic partnership plan. Venezuelan President Maduro arrived in St. Petersburg. Russian military bloggers commented on EU efforts to limit Chinese ownership of European logistics infrastructure, framing it in a negative geopolitical context. TASS reports that Slovak Prime Minister Fico described his trip to Moscow as "extremely successful."MoD Russia reports on the meeting between Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov and his Uzbek counterpart.
India-Pakistan Conflict: Significantly escalated with reported missile exchange and civilian/military casualties. WarGonzo reports on the escalation and military deployments at the border.Colonelcassad comments on the potential for nuclear weapon use.
Information Operations: Both sides continue to heavily leverage narratives around Victory Day, military successes, and the actions of the opposing side. Russian sources are promoting historical narratives, showcasing military readiness, criticizing Western support for Ukraine, and portraying Ukraine as the aggressor violating a declared ceasefire. Ukrainian leaders and officials are commemorating fallen soldiers, highlighting ongoing combat, and emphasizing international support. Russian military bloggers continue to be active in shaping narratives and fundraising. Peskov's comments on European reactions and sanctions are part of Russian information operations. Russian military blogger claims Ukrainian strike on a school in Bryansk Oblast. Russian military bloggers claim significant Ukrainian ceasefire violations. Russian military highlights Victory Day events in Mariupol and Belarus. Trump's reported comments on the conflict and Putin's actions are being disseminated by both Ukrainian and Russian sources, likely for different narrative purposes. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on alleged "wailing shows" in Russia as a form of propaganda.Russian military blogger Dmitry Medvedev used highly derogatory and threatening language towards European leaders visiting Kyiv, an example of psychological warfare.TASS and the Victory Museum are launching an action "Letters of Victory" as a historical narrative information operation.Kotsnews shares a photo and text attempting to discredit Ukrainian leadership using a historical narrative about Zelenskyy's grandfather.
Internal Ukrainian Politics: President Zelenskyy and other officials are commemorating fallen soldiers. Ukrainian officials are addressing internal security and governance issues. Ukrainian forces are highlighting their military aid efforts (Kryvyi Rih). Ukrainian General Staff is reporting on estimated Russian losses. Ukrainian forces are highlighting their effectiveness in specific areas (Zaporizhzhia front). Ukrainian officials are emphasizing the liberation of territory and inflicting casualties on Russian forces (Lyptsi). STERNENKO and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report on a NABU search at the Headquarters of the National Guard of Ukraine.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on alleged abduction and beating of a veteran in Kharkiv by military commissars.
Internal Russian Issues: Anti-war protests are occurring in Russia. Internal security incidents are being reported (shooting in Makhachkala, alleged arson in Barnaul, grenade incident in Moscow Oblast). Temporary airport closures and restrictions in multiple regions due to drone attacks or security measures are causing disruptions to civilian air travel. Russian military bloggers' fundraising efforts highlight ongoing needs for equipment and potential logistical challenges. Russian authorities are implementing enhanced security measures (drone spotting in Moscow) and addressing public dissent. Russian military bloggers are commenting on socio-political issues. A fatal grenade incident occurred in Moscow Oblast. An activist was reportedly beaten and detained in Moscow for an anti-war poster. Russian military blogger claims Ukrainian strike on a school in Bryansk Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on alleged "wailing shows" as an internal socio-political phenomenon.TASS reports on volcanic activity in Kamchatka.Новости Москвы reports on a scientific breakthrough at the Large Hadron Collider.TASS reports on the deorbit and fall of the "Cosmos-482" satellite.
Russia-North Korea Relations: Explicit statements of support and alleged military involvement from North Korea for Russia, with speculation on the potential use of North Korean troops in border battles in Russia. North Korea launched an unidentified ballistic missile (or several short-range ballistic missiles).
BRICS: The issue of settlement in Ukraine is planned to be discussed at the BRICS summit.
Russia-Uzbekistan Relations: Russian Defence Minister met with Uzbek counterpart and signed a strategic partnership plan. MoD Russia reports on the meeting and the signing of the strategic partnership plan.
EU-China Relations: Russian military bloggers commented on EU efforts to limit Chinese ownership of European logistics infrastructure.
Internal Russian Issues (Updated):
Internal Security: A fatal grenade incident occurred in a residential building stairwell in Moscow Oblast. An activist was reportedly beaten by police and detained in Moscow for an anti-war poster on May 9th, highlighting suppression of dissent. Russian sources highlighted the heroism of a police officer in the Makhachkala shooting incident. Alleged attempted arson in Barnaul has been reported. The liquidation of an Uzbek diaspora organization has been reported.
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian forces continue offensive operations on multiple fronts, utilizing a range of weaponry. Russian military bloggers' fundraising efforts highlight ongoing needs for equipment such as motorcycles, evacuation vehicles, and anti-drone systems (EW and armor), suggesting potential gaps or challenges in official supply chains. Russian military bloggers are speculating about potential non-Ukrainian pilots and NATO airbases being used to support Ukraine's aviation (previous report). Russian forces continue to utilize guided aerial bombs, as evidenced by strikes in Sumy and Kursk Oblasts. Russian military bloggers are showcasing the provision of additional armor ("cope cages") to vehicles, highlighting efforts to counter drone threats. Russia is engaged in military diplomacy with Kyrgyzstan. Russian sources claim advances on multiple fronts, including the capture of Severny mine near Chasiv Yar. Russian sources claim the destruction of a Ukrainian Rada eiMHR radar. Russian military bloggers discuss the potential use of North Korean troops in border battles. WarGonzo discusses demining challenges in occupied territories. Fighterbomber shares photos of tactical gear, including headlamps, a watch, and batteries, likely for personnel involved in operations.АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video highlighting drone operator actions in the Kharkiv direction.
Security Measures: Temporary airport restrictions in Nizhnekamsk and Chita suggest ongoing security measures in response to perceived threats or incidents.
Political Dynamics: Kadyrov's statement on the Day of Remembrance and Sorrow is a significant political communication within Russia. The negative reaction of Russian military bloggers to the European leaders' visit to Kyiv highlights the hardline stance of this segment of the Russian information space and their dissatisfaction with perceived Russian restraint. Russian sources are highlighting the heroism of a police officer injured in the Makhachkala shooting incident. Russian military blogger Dmitry Medvedev used highly derogatory and threatening language towards European leaders visiting Kyiv.TASS reports that Slovak Prime Minister Fico described his trip to Moscow as "extremely successful," highlighting Russia's diplomatic interactions.MoD Russia reports on the meeting between Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov and his Uzbek counterpart and the signing of a strategic partnership plan.
Information Operations and Propaganda: Significant emphasis on Victory Day narratives, including historical links and portraying external support for Ukraine negatively. The use of the "Immortal Regiment" concept for military vehicles is an example of blending historical commemoration with current military efforts. State media and officials continue to promote narratives of unity and resolve. Anti-war protests, while small, are being noted by independent media, highlighting a counter-narrative within Russia. Russian sources are highlighting the heroism of a police officer injured in the Makhachkala shooting incident. WarGonzo discusses demining challenges and links them to post-WWII efforts. Russian sources claim advances on multiple fronts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on alleged "wailing shows" as a form of propaganda.Russian military blogger Dmitry Medvedev's statement is a clear example of psychological warfare.TASS and the Victory Museum are launching an action "Letters of Victory," leveraging historical narratives for propaganda.Kotsnews shares a photo and text attempting to discredit Ukrainian leadership using a historical narrative.Fighterbomber shares photos incorporating a St. George ribbon, a symbol with strong propaganda connotations.
Logistical Challenges: Fundraising for basic equipment like motorcycles and evacuation vehicles by military bloggers could indicate logistical challenges for some units. Fighterbomber shares photos of supplies, including those shipped via CDEK (a civilian logistics company), potentially highlighting reliance on such channels.
Natural Events:TASS reports on volcanic activity in Kamchatka.
Scientific Developments:Новости Москвы reports on a scientific breakthrough at the Large Hadron Collider.
Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)
Military Support: High-level military discussions and visits continue between Ukraine and European partners. France will service CAESAR howitzers using frozen Russian assets. Germany is reportedly reducing the transparency of its arms deliveries to Ukraine. Russian military bloggers are actively fundraising for equipment for their units, including motorcycles, evacuation vehicles, EW systems, and additional armor. Provision of additional armor ("cope cages") to Russian vehicles through volunteer/blogger initiatives is being highlighted. Russia is engaged in military-technical cooperation discussions with Kyrgyzstan and is reportedly receiving launchers for short-range missiles from Iran (previous report). Speculation on potential direct North Korean military support for Russia in border areas. Jean-Noël Barrot states that discussions on sending troops from the "coalition of the willing" to Ukraine are progressing.Fighterbomber shares photos of tactical gear being supplied.
Military Commemoration: Ukrainian leaders and regional officials are commemorating fallen soldiers. Russia is extensively leveraging Victory Day narratives and linking current military efforts to historical events, including through initiatives like the "Immortal Regiment" for armored vehicles. Plans for commemorating fallen North Korean soldiers in Kursk Oblast are reported. A postal stamp commemorating mothers and soldiers is issued in Zaporizhzhia. TASS and the Victory Museum are launching an action "Letters of Victory" as part of Victory Day commemorations.Colonelcassad shares videos of Victory Day events in Moldova.Fighterbomber shares photos incorporating a St. George ribbon, a symbol of Victory Day.Kotsnews shares a photo and text related to Victory Day and historical narratives.
Internal Support and Morale: Ukrainian leaders are highlighting the sacrifices of soldiers and honoring their memory. Russian military bloggers are using patriotic themes and showcasing volunteer efforts to support military units to boost morale. Fundraising efforts also aim to provide necessary resources to support troops. A postal stamp commemorating mothers and soldiers is issued in Zaporizhzhia. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on alleged "wailing shows" as a potential effort to manage public emotion regarding casualties.Fighterbomber shares photos of tactical gear, potentially distributed to boost morale and capability.
Internal Investigations (Ukraine):STERNENKO and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report on a NABU search at the Headquarters of the National Guard of Ukraine.
Potential Human Rights Concerns (Ukraine):Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on alleged abduction and beating of a veteran in Kharkiv by military commissars.
Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.
