Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 10, 2025, 08:10 UTC)
Updated Situation
The operational environment remains characterized by persistent ground combat across multiple fronts, notably in Donetsk Oblast, and continued Russian aerial activity, including guided aerial bomb (KAB) launches. The India-Pakistan conflict has escalated significantly, with Pakistan announcing a large-scale military operation and India stating it will respond. Diplomatic activity includes high-level European visits to Kyiv and ongoing, contested discussions regarding ceasefires. North Korea has expressed explicit support for Russia, with Russian sources alleging North Korean military participation in the conflict. Russian information operations are extensively leveraging Victory Day narratives to garner support and link the current conflict to historical events. France has announced that the servicing of CAESAR self-propelled howitzers transferred to Ukraine will be financed through frozen Russian assets. Ukraine is also actively engaged in recruitment efforts targeting younger age groups for a one-year contract service. An SBU official has been dismissed following an investigation.Germany is reportedly planning to reduce the transparency of its weapon deliveries to Ukraine.Russia continues military diplomacy, including talks with Kyrgyzstan.
New significant updates from the latest messages:
SBU Official Dismissed: The head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), Vasyl Malyuk, has dismissed the head of the Main Department for Counterintelligence Support of Critical Infrastructure and Counteraction to Financing Terrorism, Anatoliy Loif. This follows an investigation that reportedly found Loif attended a birthday party with individuals connected to sanctioned entities and alleged criminal figures. This highlights internal security and anti-corruption efforts within Ukraine's security apparatus.
Continued Heavy Fighting in Kharkiv Direction: The "Kharkiv" Operational-Tactical Group reports that in the past 24 hours, Russian forces used 132 kamikaze drones and conducted 495 shelling incidents against Ukrainian positions in the Kharkiv direction. They repelled six Russian attacks near Vovchansk. Ukrainian forces claim to have inflicted significant losses on Russian personnel (74 killed/wounded, with 36 irreversible) and equipment (123 units destroyed/damaged, including artillery, vehicles, 99 UAVs, and 14 pieces of special equipment). They also claim to have destroyed 79 personnel shelters, an ammunition storage, and 5 fuel storage locations. This indicates continued high intensity of combat in this sector despite any declared ceasefires.
Anti-War Protest in Russia: In Novosibirsk, Russia, an activist, Elena Tardasova-Yun, held solo pickets on May 9th and 10th with pacifist posters featuring quotes from prominent writers. Passersby reportedly expressed anger, stating her signs contradicted the May 9th Victory Day holiday. This highlights the existence of anti-war sentiment within Russia and the pressure faced by those expressing such views, particularly around symbolic dates.
Kadyrov Commemorates Chechen Day of Remembrance and Sorrow: Ramzan Kadyrov issued a statement on the Day of Remembrance and Sorrow of the Chechen People, reflecting on the history of hardship, including wars and repressions, and emphasizing the role of his father in bringing peace and stability. This is a significant internal Russian political and historical narrative, particularly relevant to the ongoing conflict and the role of Chechen forces.
Ukrainian Leaders Commemorate Fallen Soldiers: President Zelenskyy and the First Lady, along with European leaders, honored the memory of fallen Ukrainian defenders in Kyiv. Regional officials, such as the head of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration and the head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, also shared videos commemorating fallen soldiers. This highlights the ongoing efforts to honor sacrifices and maintain national morale amidst the conflict.
Germany Reportedly Making Arms Deliveries to Ukraine Secret: Spiegel reports that the new German government is significantly reducing the transparency of its weapon deliveries to Ukraine, moving away from three years of public disclosure. This decision is reportedly part of a tactic to reduce public debate about arms supplies. This change in policy could impact the information available to both sides regarding the types and quantities of military aid reaching Ukraine.
Russian Military Bloggers Criticize European Leaders' Visit to Kyiv: Russian military bloggers, including Basurin and Alex Parker Returns, are reacting negatively and using derogatory language towards the visit of European leaders to Kyiv. They portray the leaders as a "coalition of the defeated" and express frustration that Russia is not taking more aggressive action, even suggesting a missile strike ("Oreshnik") on Kyiv while the leaders are there. This highlights the hardline stance of some Russian military bloggers and their dissatisfaction with perceived Russian restraint.
Russia-Kyrgyzstan Military Diplomacy: Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov held bilateral talks with the Defence Minister of Kyrgyzstan, Baktybek Bekbolotov, in Moscow. They discussed bilateral military and military-technical cooperation. The conversation emphasized the shared history as "children of one family called Soviet people" and the importance of cherishing the victory in World War II. This indicates continued Russian efforts to maintain and strengthen military ties with former Soviet republics.
Increased Russian Losses Reported by Ukrainian General Staff: The Ukrainian General Staff has updated estimated Russian losses as of May 10, 2025. Notable increases include:
Personnel: +1310 (Total ~964,580)
Tanks: +4 (Total 10790)
Armored Vehicles: +7 (Total 22440)
Artillery Systems: +49 (Total 27637)
UAVs: +36 (Total 35482)
Vehicles & Fuel Tanks: +106 (Total 47830)
This reporting of continued high losses on the Russian side, particularly in personnel, armored vehicles, and artillery, indicates ongoing intense combat activity across the front.
Russian Military Blogger Discusses Potential Foreign Involvement in Ukraine: Russian military blogger "Voenkor Kotenok" discusses the possibility of a coalition of countries acting independently to support Ukraine, including the use of non-Ukrainian pilots for aviation, utilizing a new NATO airbase in Albania, and using the airspace of Romania and airfields in Moldova. This speculation, presented as being from a book, suggests concerns within the Russian military commentary space about potential direct or indirect foreign military intervention in the conflict.
Russian Military Bloggers Fundraise for Equipment: "Voenkor Kotenok" is conducting a fundraising drive for Russian snipers, seeking 4 motorcycles for mobility, a Lada Niva for casualty evacuation, and electronic warfare (EW) systems for anti-drone defense. Another post from "Two Majors" highlights a project providing additional armor ("cope cages") to Russian Ural trucks, with a call for donations for metal and production costs, and mentions providing two more sets for self-installation. These fundraising efforts underscore the ongoing need for equipment and the challenges faced by some Russian units, particularly regarding mobility and protection against drones. The emphasis on EW systems and anti-drone armor highlights the continued threat posed by Ukrainian UAVs.
India Confirms Strikes on Military Targets in Pakistan: Following Pakistan's announcement of a military operation and strikes against India, India has for the first time confirmed conducting strikes against military targets in Pakistan. India also claims to have observed the movement of Pakistani troops towards the borders, indicating an offensive intention and potential for further escalation. This confirms a significant escalation in the India-Pakistan conflict.
Victory Day Commemorative Armor in Russia: "Two Majors" showcases a Russian Ural truck fitted with additional armor and named after a WWII veteran as part of the "Immortal Regiment" initiative. This links current military efforts to historical commemoration and highlights volunteer support for providing equipment.
Ukrainian Patrol Police Involved in Frontline Areas: Images shared by Oleksiy Biloshitsky, a Ukrainian official, show members of the Ukrainian Patrol Police equipped with military gear and weapons in what appears to be frontline or high-risk areas in Donetsk Oblast, including near Toretsk. This indicates the involvement of Ukrainian law enforcement units in combat or security roles in active conflict zones, potentially supplementing regular military forces. The accompanying text emphasizes the presence of these forces in Donetsk to "keep the enemy at a distance."
Russian Aviation Strikes in Sumy Oblast: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that Russian aviation conducted airstrikes with guided aerial bombs (KABs) on several settlements in Sumy Oblast: Boyaro-Lezhachi, Doroshivka, Manukhivka, and Nova Sloboda. This confirms continued Russian aerial activity and the use of guided bombs against targets in Sumy Oblast.
Clashes Reported Across Multiple Fronts by Ukrainian General Staff: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that clashes occurred yesterday in various directions:
Kharkiv: Near Vovchansk.
Kupyansk: Near Zahryzove and Nova Kruhlyakivka.
Lyman: Near Lypove, Ridkodub, Yampolivka and towards Hrekivka, Novyi Myr, Zelena Dolyna.
Sieversk: Near Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka and Verkhnokamyanske.
Kramatorsk: Near Chasiv Yar, Bila Hora, Kurdumivka and towards Oleksandro-Shultyne.
Toretsk: Near Dachne, Dyliyivka, Scherbynivka and Toretsk.
Pokrovsk: Near Oleksandropil, Novotoretske, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Nova Poltavka, Promin, Yelyzavetivka, Dachenske, Zvirove, Udachne, Kotlyarivka, Andriyivka, Lysivka, Novoserhiyivka and towards Muravka, Zoria, Myrolubivka, Malynivka, Novomykolayivka and Troyitske.
This provides a comprehensive overview of the breadth of combat activity across the front line on the previous day.
Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)
Donetsk Oblast (including Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Oleksandropil, Novotoretske, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Nova Poltavka, Promin, Yelyzavetivka, Dachenske, Zvirove, Udachne, Kotlyarivka, Andriyivka, Lysivka, Novoserhiyivka, Muravka, Zoria, Myrolubivka, Malynivka, Novomykolayivka, Troyitske, Bilohorivka, Hryhorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Bila Hora, Kurdumivka, Oleksandro-Shultyne, Dachne, Dyliyivka, Scherbynivka, Toretsk): Continues to be a main focal point of intense ground combat, with clashes reported across multiple directions including Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, Lyman, Sieversk, and Kramatorsk. Ukrainian Patrol Police units are reported to be operating in frontline areas, including near Toretsk.
Kharkiv Direction (including Vovchansk, Zahryzove, Nova Kruhlyakivka): Continued high intensity of combat with significant Russian drone and shelling activity. Ukrainian forces repelled attacks near Vovchansk. Clashes were reported near Vovchansk, Zahryzove, and Nova Kruhlyakivka.
Sumy Oblast (including Boyaro-Lezhachi, Doroshivka, Manukhivka, Nova Sloboda): Russian aviation conducted airstrikes with guided aerial bombs on several settlements.
Kursk Oblast (Russia): Continues to be an area of activity, although not specifically mentioned in the very latest updates, previous reports indicated continued Ukrainian attempts to breach defenses.
Kherson Oblast (including Nova Kakhovka, Left Bank): A video shows the situation on the left bank of the Dnipro, which remains a contested area.
Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):
Drone Activity:Continued widespread and intense Russian drone activity, particularly kamikaze drones (132 in the Kharkiv direction alone) and FPV drones.Ukrainian forces claim significant destruction of Russian UAVs (99 in the Kharkiv direction).Russian military bloggers are fundraising for EW systems and anti-drone armor, highlighting the continued threat.Ukrainian forces reportedly targeted a location displaying Russian and North Korean flags in Sumy Oblast using a drone.Russian sources claim a high number of alleged Ukrainian drone violations despite the ceasefire.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs):Russian aviation conducted airstrikes with guided aerial bombs on settlements in Sumy Oblast. Russian forces continue to utilize KABs in frontline regions.
Aviation Activity:Russian tactical aviation remains active on the northeastern direction, conducting airstrikes with guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast.Russian military bloggers are speculating about potential non-Ukrainian pilots and NATO airbases being used to support Ukraine's aviation.
Artillery and MLRS Activity:Continued high number of Russian shelling incidents reported by Ukrainian forces (495 in the Kharkiv direction alone).Clashes and shelling continue across multiple front lines. Russian sources report alleged Ukrainian artillery and MLRS violations despite the ceasefire.
Naval Activity: No significant changes in naval activity reported in the latest updates.
Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):
Ukraine-EU Relations: High-level European leaders (Macron, Merz, Starmer, Tusk) visited Kyiv and participated in commemoration events. Germany is reportedly planning to reduce the transparency of its weapon deliveries to Ukraine.
Russia-Kyrgyzstan Relations: Russian Defence Minister Belousov held bilateral military and military-technical cooperation talks with his Kyrgyz counterpart.
India-Pakistan Conflict:Escalated significantly, with India confirming strikes on military targets in Pakistan after Pakistan announced a military operation and strikes against India.
Information Operations: Both sides continue to heavily leverage narratives around Victory Day and the conflict. Russian sources are promoting historical narratives, showcasing military readiness, and criticizing Western support for Ukraine. Ukrainian leaders and officials are commemorating fallen soldiers and highlighting ongoing combat. Russian military bloggers are using derogatory language and expressing frustration regarding the visit of European leaders to Kyiv.Anti-war protests are occurring in Russia, highlighting internal dissent.Kadyrov's statement on the Chechen Day of Remembrance and Sorrow is relevant to internal narratives.Russian military bloggers are linking current military efforts to historical commemoration through initiatives like the "Immortal Regiment" for armored vehicles.
Internal Ukrainian Politics:An SBU official has been dismissed following an investigation into alleged connections with individuals linked to sanctioned entities and organized crime.
Internal Russian Issues:Anti-war protests are occurring in Russia, highlighting internal dissent and the pressure faced by protestors.Kadyrov's statement addresses the history and current state of the Chechen people, relevant to internal narratives and the role of Chechen forces.Fundraising efforts by military bloggers highlight ongoing needs for equipment and potential logistical challenges.Temporary airport closures in Russia (Nizhnekamsk, Chita) due to perceived threats (likely drones) or incidents (landscape fire) indicate ongoing security concerns.
Internal Russian Issues (Updated):
Internal Security:Temporary airport closures in Nizhnekamsk (due to restrictions) and Chita (due to a landscape fire near the airfield) indicate ongoing security concerns, potentially related to drone activity or other incidents.Anti-war protests highlight internal dissent and the pressure faced by those expressing dissenting views.
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian forces continue offensive operations on multiple fronts, utilizing a range of weaponry. Russian military bloggers' fundraising efforts highlight ongoing needs for equipment such as motorcycles, evacuation vehicles, and anti-drone systems (EW and armor), suggesting potential gaps or challenges in official supply chains.Russian military bloggers are discussing the possibility of foreign involvement in Ukraine's aviation, indicating concerns about Ukraine's capabilities and international support.Russian forces continue to utilize guided aerial bombs, as evidenced by strikes in Sumy Oblast.Russian military bloggers are showcasing the provision of additional armor ("cope cages") to vehicles, highlighting efforts to counter drone threats.Russia is engaged in military diplomacy with Kyrgyzstan.
Security Measures:Temporary airport restrictions in Nizhnekamsk and Chita suggest ongoing security measures in response to perceived threats or incidents.
Political Dynamics:Kadyrov's statement on the Day of Remembrance and Sorrow is a significant political communication within Russia.The negative reaction of Russian military bloggers to the European leaders' visit to Kyiv highlights the hardline stance of this segment of the Russian information space and their dissatisfaction with perceived government actions.
Information Operations and Propaganda:Significant emphasis on Victory Day narratives, including historical links and portraying external support for Ukraine negatively.The use of the "Immortal Regiment" concept for military vehicles is an example of blending historical commemoration with current military efforts.State media and officials continue to promote narratives of unity and resolve.Anti-war protests, while small, are being noted by independent media, highlighting a counter-narrative within Russia.
Logistical Challenges:Fundraising for basic equipment like motorcycles and evacuation vehicles by military bloggers could indicate logistical challenges for some units.
Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)
Military Support:High-level military discussions and visits continue between Ukraine and European partners.France will service CAESAR howitzers using frozen Russian assets.Germany is reportedly reducing the transparency of its arms deliveries to Ukraine.Russian military bloggers are actively fundraising for equipment for their units, including motorcycles, evacuation vehicles, EW systems, and additional armor.Provision of additional armor ("cope cages") to Russian vehicles through volunteer/blogger initiatives is being highlighted.Russia is engaged in military-technical cooperation discussions with Kyrgyzstan.
Military Commemoration:Ukrainian leaders and regional officials are commemorating fallen soldiers.Russia is extensively leveraging Victory Day narratives and linking current military efforts to historical events, including through initiatives like the "Immortal Regiment" for armored vehicles.
Internal Support and Morale:Ukrainian leaders are highlighting the sacrifices of soldiers and honoring their memory.Russian military bloggers are using patriotic themes and showcasing volunteer efforts to support military units to boost morale.Fundraising efforts also aim to provide necessary resources to support troops.
Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)
Russia: Continuing intensive ground assaults, particularly in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. Utilizing a high volume of drones (kamikaze and FPV), guided aerial bombs (KABs), artillery, and potentially MLRS (although not specifically highlighted in the latest updates). Employing tactical aviation for strikes. Continuing military diplomacy. Russian forces are utilizing "cope cages" on vehicles to counter drone threats.Russian military bloggers highlight the need for EW systems.Russian forces conducted airstrikes with guided aerial bombs in Sumy Oblast.Russian forces are engaged in clashes across multiple fronts.
Ukraine: Maintaining defensive postures and repelling Russian assaults on multiple fronts. Inflicting significant losses on Russian personnel and equipment. Utilizing drones for various purposes. Receiving military aid from international partners, with discussions on future support ongoing. Ukrainian Patrol Police units are involved in combat or security roles in frontline areas.Ukrainian forces are engaged in clashes across multiple fronts.
Strategic Considerations (Updated)
The continued high intensity of fighting across multiple fronts, particularly in the Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts, despite any declared ceasefires, underscores the ongoing strategic objectives of both sides and the lack of a genuine commitment to de-escalation in key areas.
The significant reported Russian losses, particularly in personnel and equipment, highlight the high cost of their offensive operations and could impact their ability to sustain the current level of intensity in the long term. This information is strategically important for assessing the viability of Russian military campaigns.
The involvement of Ukrainian Patrol Police units in frontline areas suggests a potential strain on regular military forces or a deliberate strategy to utilize all available personnel in defense and security roles in high-risk zones. This could have implications for overall force structure and capabilities.
The reported German decision to reduce transparency on arms deliveries, while potentially aimed at reducing public debate, could also impact the intelligence gathering capabilities of Russia regarding the types and quantities of military aid reaching Ukraine.
The escalating India-Pakistan conflict adds another layer of complexity to the global security landscape. While not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine, it could have indirect effects on international attention, resources, and geopolitical dynamics.
The explicit statements of support and alleged military involvement from North Korea for Russia, coupled with threats against the US and its allies, indicate a deepening alignment that could have significant strategic implications for regional and global security.
The continued emphasis on Victory Day narratives and the linking of current events to historical contexts by Russian sources are a strategic effort to legitimize the conflict, mobilize domestic support, and counter perceived Western narratives.
The fundraising efforts by Russian military bloggers for essential equipment highlight potential logistical challenges within the Russian military and the reliance on non-governmental support for certain needs. This can provide insights into the operational challenges faced by Russian units.
The continued use of guided aerial bombs by Russia in areas like Sumy Oblast indicates a reliance on this tactic for striking targets behind the immediate front line, posing a threat to civilian areas and infrastructure.
The dismissal of an SBU official following an investigation underscores ongoing efforts within Ukraine to address internal security and corruption, which are crucial for maintaining effectiveness and international support.
The anti-war protests in Russia, although facing pressure, indicate the existence of dissenting voices and potential internal instability, which could have long-term implications for the conflict.
The military diplomacy between Russia and Kyrgyzstan highlights Russia's efforts to maintain and strengthen alliances in its neighborhood amidst the conflict.
Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.
