Sitrep 2025-05-10 05:41:23

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 10, 2025, 05:40 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment continues to be characterized by ongoing ground combat and persistent Russian aerial activity, including reported launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. Russia is extensively engaged in information operations surrounding Victory Day, with Russian military units participating in commemorative events from occupied territories and state media disseminating historical documents to support their narrative. Diplomatic exchanges highlight differing perspectives on conflict resolution. The significant escalation between India and Pakistan, with Pakistan's announcement of a large-scale military operation and continued airspace closures, remains a major regional development, with India now stating Pakistan is continuing escalation and Indian forces will respond. Reports of a captured Ukrainian servicewoman and alleged mistreatment of Russian prisoners of war continue to be used for propaganda. An internal Russian issue concerning scamming activities has been reported. Recent messages reiterate Russian positions on negotiations and the role of the US in potential mediation. A completed corruption case against a former senior official in the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations has been detailed. New information includes data on the average social pension size in Russia and a Russian military blogger highlighting the role and capabilities of signal units. There is currently no detected presence of Russian missile carriers in the Black or Azov Seas, although a Kalibr carrier is reported in the Mediterranean. Donald Trump has publicly addressed both Zelenskyy and Putin, urging an end to the conflict. Russian sources are circulating images of KAB strikes in Kharkiv Oblast and a large flag display in occupied Donetsk. A large flag of the "DPR" was displayed in the center of Donetsk ahead of the "Republic Day". Russian state media is using historical documents to allege Ukrainian religious figures collaborated with fascists during WWII, as part of Victory Day information operations. Military parades for Victory Day are occurring in Russian Far East cities. A Russian military blogger is showcasing naval shipbuilding facilities in St. Petersburg. An internal Russian traffic incident involving a high-speed chase and detention of a driver occurred in Khabarovsk Krai on May 9th. A Russian military blogger is reporting increased tasking for their activities. The Ukrainian General Staff reports a high number of combat engagements across multiple fronts over the past day, particularly in the Pokrovsk direction. The Ukrainian General Staff also provides updated estimated Russian losses, highlighting significant daily attrition across personnel, equipment, artillery, and vehicles. A Ukrainian source reports the "successful demobilization" (likely indicating death) of a Russian Lieutenant Colonel who was the Deputy Commander of the 6th Tank Regiment. Some local residents in Kharkiv were observed laying flowers at a WWII memorial on Victory Day.

New information indicates:

Continued Russian Advances: DeepState reports Russian forces have advanced near Romanivka, Oleksandropil, and Nova Poltavka. This signifies continued localized Russian offensive efforts in Donetsk Oblast. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Escalation in India-Pakistan Conflict: Pakistan has announced the start of a large-scale military operation "Unbreakable Wall" against India, citing Reuters. Pakistan claims India launched missiles at three airfields, but Pakistani air defenses intercepted most. Pakistan also claims a BrahMos missile storage depot was destroyed and strikes occurred at Pathankot and Udhampur airfields. Explosions and sirens were reported in Srinagar and Jammu in India. A local official in Indian Kashmir was reported killed by shelling. Pakistan has also closed its airspace. India states Pakistan is continuing escalation and Indian armed forces will respond. This indicates a significant escalation in the India-Pakistan conflict with potential for further military action by both sides. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
North Korean Support for Russia: RBC-Ukraine reports that Kim Jong Un has stated North Korea's participation in the "Russian-Ukrainian war" was justified, calling it an exercise of sovereign rights to protect a "brotherly nation." He reportedly praised participants in the "Kursk operation" and warned the US against military provocations against Russia, stating North Korea would not hesitate to use military force. This signals explicit political and ideological support from North Korea for Russia's actions and introduces a potential for North Korean involvement or support in the conflict, though the extent and nature of this "participation" remain unclear from this statement. A Russian military blogger claims that senior figures from the Korean People's Army were honored guests at the Moscow Victory Day parade, including the Deputy Chief of the General Staff, Chief of the Main Reconnaissance Directorate, and Chief of the Main Operations Directorate. The blogger further claims that according to a decision by the Russian President, monuments will be erected and streets named in all settlements of Kursk Oblast that were "liberated" with the participation of servicemen and special forces of the Korean army, in honor of their feat. This, if true, is a significant and concrete indication of North Korean military involvement in the conflict and a formal acknowledgment by Russia. (РБК-Україна, НгП раZVедка)
Russian Propaganda Leveraging Children and Victory Day: Two Majors shares a video of children in Kazan performing a song about a deceased Russian soldier, linking it to the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War and the "Immortal Regiment." This is a clear example of Russian information operations using children and historical narratives to evoke patriotic feelings and legitimize the current conflict ("SMO"). (Два майора)
Ukrainian Airborne Forces Highlight Partnership with "Come Back Alive" Foundation: The Ukrainian Airborne Assault Forces share a photo message on the 11th anniversary of the "Come Back Alive" foundation, detailing the foundation's significant support through providing weaponry (machine guns, grenade launchers, mortars), drone systems ("Pulstron" complexes with FPV, "Kazhan" strike, and reconnaissance drones, vehicles, Starlink, etc.), sniper systems, and logistical support (tablets, laptops, radios, power sources). This highlights the vital role of volunteer foundations in equipping and supporting the Ukrainian military and showcases the modern technological capabilities being integrated into their forces, particularly in drone warfare and precision targeting. (Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України)
Iran Preparing to Supply Ballistic Missile Launchers to Russia: Reuters, via RBC-Ukraine, reports that Iran is preparing to transfer Fateh-360 short-range ballistic missile launchers to Russia. These missiles have a range of up to 120 km and could be used against Ukrainian forces near the border, including military facilities and settlements. This would represent a significant strengthening of Russia's offensive capabilities with precision short-range ballistic missiles and indicates deepening military cooperation between Russia and Iran. (РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
High-Level European Leaders Visiting Kyiv: Operatyvnyy ZSU reports that French President Macron, German Chancellor Merz, British Prime Minister Starmer, and Polish Prime Minister Tusk are en route to Kyiv. Macron announced his visit on social media. This demonstrates continued high-level political and diplomatic support for Ukraine from key European nations. Operatyvnyy ZSU, RBC-Ukraine, and STERNENKO later confirm their arrival in Kyiv for a meeting of the "coalition of the resolute". (Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, STERNENKO)
High Estimated Russian Losses: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports estimated Russian losses for the past day as 1310 personnel, 4 tanks, 7 armored fighting vehicles, 49 artillery systems, one air defense system, 36 drones, and 106 vehicles/fuel tanks. This continues to indicate a high rate of Russian attrition. Ukrainian General Staff also reports estimated Russian losses over the past day including 1310 personnel, 4 tanks, 7 armored fighting vehicles, 49 artillery systems, 1 air defense system, 36 UAVs, and 106 vehicles/fuel tanks. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Continued Russian Attacks on Zaporizhzhia Oblast: The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 284 strikes by Russian forces on 13 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past day, resulting in three injuries. The strikes included 170 UAV attacks, 3 MLRS shellings, and 111 artillery shellings. 10 reports of damage to civilian property were received. This confirms persistent and varied Russian attacks on this front, causing civilian harm and infrastructure damage. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, РБК-Україна)
Russian Claim of Destroying Ukrainian Strongpoint: Воин DV shares a video claiming that drone operators of the Russian 29th Combined Arms Army destroyed a Ukrainian strongpoint on the Shakhtyorsk direction on May 7th. This is a Russian claim of tactical success using drones. (Воин DV)
Alleged Western PMC Presence in Kursk: Colonelcassad reports that Private Military Companies (PMCs) from Poland, Lithuania, Denmark, and Great Britain have entered the Kursk direction to assist Ukrainian forces. The report names specific PMCs. While claiming they won't significantly influence the overall front, it is suggested they may be used for sabotage missions. This is a significant claim, requiring further verification, about direct Western personnel involvement in the conflict. (Colonelcassad)
Russian Position on Ceasefire: ASTRA reports that Peskov stated that the Kremlin refuses a 30-day ceasefire unless weapons supplies to Ukraine are stopped. He argues that otherwise, it would benefit Ukraine by allowing mobilization, training, and rest. He reiterated that Putin seeks a peaceful resolution but must continue military actions without democratic means available. This firmly outlines Russia's current condition for a ceasefire. Operatyvnyy ZSU reiterates Trump's call for an end to the war and Peskov's counter-claim that Putin is "trying to settle the war" but Ukrainians are avoiding negotiations and that Western arms supplies make a ceasefire impossible. (ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Russian Attack on Nikopol District with FPV Drone: Serhiy Lysak reports that the Russian army attacked the Marhanets hromada in the Nikopol district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with an FPV drone this morning. No casualties were reported. This indicates the continued use of FPV drones by Russia in attacks on civilian areas. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), РБК-Україна)
Road Traffic Incident in Khabarovsk, Russia: The Khabarovsk Krai Police report a high-speed chase and detention of a 19-year-old driver on May 9th who violated numerous traffic laws and resisted police. The individual was driving without a license. While not directly a military event, this highlights potential internal security issues or public order concerns during a period of heightened nationalistic fervor around Victory Day. (Полиция Хабаровского края)
Controlled Situation in Kryvyi Rih: Oleksandr Vilkul reports that the situation in Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, is controlled, with no overnight shelling in the district and all services operational. (Олександр Вілкул)
Death of Russian Deputy Commander: Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlitz" reports the "successful demobilization" (likely death) of Lieutenant Colonel Oгай Роман, Deputy Commander of the Russian 6th Tank Regiment. This indicates the loss of a high-ranking officer within the Russian military structure. (Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц")
Limited Commemoration in Kharkiv: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo and message indicating that some local residents in Kharkiv were able to carry flowers to a memorial on Victory Day, despite the ongoing situation. This provides a small glimpse into the situation for civilians in a heavily impacted area. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Russian Military Blogger Reports Increased Tasking: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a message stating that their "family" (followers/supporters) is all accounted for and that they have "a lot of tasks and objectives" without specifying. This could indicate increased activity or responsibilities for this military blogger, potentially related to ongoing operations or information campaigns. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Russian Military Blogger Showcases Naval Shipbuilding: Басурин о главном shares historical context about the Admiralty in St. Petersburg and links it to modern shipbuilding at the Admiralty Shipyards, stating that every new ship is a descendant of the first launched in 1706 and is a vital part of Russia's shipbuilding industry. This is a clear information operation piece aimed at highlighting and promoting Russian naval capabilities and historical legacy. (Басурин о главном)
Ukrainian General Staff Reports High Combat Engagements and Losses: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 196 combat engagements over the past day. They provide detailed breakdowns for various directions: 6 in the Kharkiv direction, 3 in the Kupiansk direction, 17 in the Lyman direction, 8 in the Siversk direction, 10 in the Kramatorsk direction, 15 in the Toretsk direction, 65 in the Pokrovsk direction, 31 in the Novopavlivka direction, 0 in the Huliaipilskyi direction, 6 in the Orikhiv direction, 6 in the Pridniprovskyi direction, and 19 in the operational zone in Kursk Oblast. This provides a comprehensive overview of the intensity and location of fighting across the entire front line. They also report that over the past day, the enemy launched 34 air strikes (including 69 guided bombs), conducted over 4100 shellings (including 35 from MLRS), and used 2174 kamikaze drones. Ukrainian forces reportedly struck seven areas of personnel and equipment concentration, one UAV control point, three artillery systems, and two other important targets. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Air Activity in the East: The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern direction. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Airspace Closure over Kapustin Yar Test Site: Operatyvnyy ZSU reports that Russia is closing the airspace in the area of the Kapustin Yar test site on May 12th and 13th from 06:00 to 16:00 local time, from the surface to unlimited altitude. The report notes that similar restrictions were in place before the strike on Dnipro with an "Oreshnik" missile. This suggests planned missile testing or activity at the site. (Оперативний ЗСУ)

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk Direction, Novopavlivka Direction, Toretsk Direction, Kramatorsk Direction, Siversk Direction, Dzerzhinsk, Romanivka, Oleksandropil, Nova Poltavka, Shakhtyorsk Direction, LPR/DPR Occupied Territories): Remains the most active front, particularly the Pokrovsk direction with 65 reported combat engagements over the past day, followed by the Novopavlivka direction with 31. Intense fighting also reported in the Toretsk (15 engagements), Kramatorsk (10 engagements), and Siversk (8 engagements) directions. Russian forces continue reporting advances near Romanivka, Oleksandropil, and Nova Poltavka. Launches of KABs were detected towards Donetsk Oblast, but the threat has been cleared. Colonelcassad shares videos and photos related to alleged atrocities and ongoing operations. Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny reports claims about Ukrainian psychological operations. Colonelcassad shares videos related to alleged mistreatment of Russian POWs and monument restoration. The threat from aerial attacks for Donetsk Oblast has been cleared. A large "DPR" flag was displayed in the center of Donetsk. Воин DV claims Russian drone operators destroyed a Ukrainian strongpoint on the Shakhtyorsk direction. Russian military units participated in Victory Day commemorations from occupied DNR territory. Ukrainian General Staff reports 10 combat engagements in the Kramatorsk direction, 15 in the Toretsk direction, 65 in the Pokrovsk direction, 31 in the Novopavlivka direction, and 8 in the Siversk direction over the past day. (DeepState, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Воин DV, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Sumy Oblast (Boyaro-Lezhachi, Doroshivka, Manukhivka, Nova Sloboda, Bunyakino, Sukhodol, Novovasilievka, Bachevsk, Nedryhailiv): Civilian casualties reported due to Russian shelling. Rocket danger announced. Russian forces claim destruction of Ukrainian assets. New launches of KABs towards Sumy Oblast were reported, but the threat has been cleared. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes in the areas of Boyaro-Lezhachi, Doroshivka, Manukhivka, and Nova Sloboda. The threat from aerial attacks for Sumy Oblast has been cleared. Ukrainian General Staff reports Russian aviation conducted air strikes in the areas of Boyaro-Lezhachi, Doroshivka, Manukhivka, Nova Sloboda over the past day. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Chernihiv Oblast (Klyusy, Gorsk): Russian forces claim destruction of Ukrainian assets, including UAV control points. (Colonelcassad)
Kursk Border Region (including Tetkino): Continued active engagement and reported Ukrainian attempts at incursions. Russian military bloggers report engagements and fundraising. Kim Jong Un reportedly praised participants in the "Kursk operation." Colonelcassad reports the alleged presence of Western PMCs from Poland, Lithuania, Denmark, and Great Britain in the Kursk direction. Ukrainian forces repelled 19 Russian attacks and the enemy conducted 13 airstrikes (21 guided bombs) and 316 artillery shellings (1 MLRS) in the operational zone in Kursk Oblast over the past day. A Russian military blogger claims that monuments will be erected and streets named in all settlements of Kursk Oblast that were "liberated" with the participation of servicemen and special forces of the Korean army. (Previous reporting, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, НгП раZVедка)
Odesa Oblast (Reni): Firework display reported, attributed to "partisans" by Russian sources. (Два майора)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Zaporizhzhia district, Malokaterynivka, Bilenke, Novoyakovlivka, Novoboykivske, Magdalynivka, Kamyanske, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, Novodarivka, Pavlivka): Missile danger announced and cleared. Military personnel of the Russian "Vostok" grouping conducted an auto rally to congratulate civilians. Colonelcassad shares a video about monument restoration. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 284 strikes on 13 settlements over the past day, including 170 UAVs, 3 MLRS, and 111 artillery shellings, resulting in three injuries and damage to civilian property. Ukrainian General Staff reports no offensive actions in the Huliaipilskyi direction and 6 enemy attacks repelled in the Orikhiv direction over the past day. (Previous reporting, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopol District, Marhanets Hromada, Kryvyi Rih, Pridniprovskyi Direction): Fast-moving targets detected. Missile danger announced. The Russian army attacked the Marhanets hromada in the Nikopol district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with an FPV drone this morning. No casualties were reported. This indicates the continued use of FPV drones by Russia in attacks on civilian areas. The situation in Kryvyi Rih is reported as controlled. Ukrainian General Staff reports the enemy attempted to advance six times without success on the Pridniprovskyi direction over the past day. (Previous reporting, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Олександр Вілкул, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, РБК-Україна)
Kapustin Yar Test Site (Astrakhan and Volgograd/Saratov Oblasts, Russia): Airspace closure suggests planned missile testing or activity. Russia is closing the airspace in the area of the Kapustin Yar test site on May 12th and 13th, suggesting planned missile testing. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Rawalpindi, Pakistan: Powerful explosion reported, believed to be an Indian strike. Fire reported. Conflicting claims of interceptions. (РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Islamabad, Pakistan: Air defense systems actively working. (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Amritsar, India: Four explosions reported. Pakistan claims five ballistic missiles hit. (РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Adampur, India: Pakistan claims one ballistic missile hit. (Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Rafiki Airbase (near Shorkot, Jang district, Pakistan): Pakistan claims interception of Indian cruise missiles. India claims strikes. (РБК-Україна, ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Murid Airbase, Pakistan: Pakistan claims India launched "air-to-ground" missiles. India claims strikes. (РБК-Україна, ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Shorkot Airbase, Pakistan: Pakistan claims India launched "air-to-ground" missiles and intercepted cruise missiles. (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Kyiv: High-level European leaders are in Kyiv. French President Macron, German Chancellor Merz, British Prime Minister Starmer, and Polish Prime Minister Tusk are en route to Kyiv. They have arrived in Kyiv for a meeting of the "coalition of the resolute". (ТАСС, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO)
Moscow: Reports indicate the presence of foreign leaders for Victory Day. Commemorative events. Putin's meetings. Senior figures from the Korean People's Army were reportedly honored guests at the Moscow Victory Day parade. (Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, ТАСС, Kadyrov_95, Alex Parker Returns, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, НгП раZVедка)
New York (UN Headquarters): Russian Permanent Mission organized a commemorative event. (ТАСС)
India-Pakistan Border Region: Pakistan initiated a large-scale military operation and temporarily closed its airspace. Pakistan claims striking Indian airbases and a BrahMos missile storage depot. India states Pakistan is continuing escalation and Indian armed forces will respond. Pakistan has announced the start of a large-scale military operation "Unbreakable Wall" against India, citing Reuters. Pakistan shares video claiming Fateh-1 missile launch and impact on Indian military objects. (ТАСС, РБК-Україна, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Pathankot Airfield, India: Pakistan claims to have struck this airfield. (РБК-Україна, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Udhampur Air Force Base, India: Pakistan claims to have struck this airbase. (РБК-Україна, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Beas, India: Pakistan claims to have struck a BrahMos missile storage depot here. (РБК-Україна, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Kolodeznoye (Kharkiv Oblast): Russian sources share footage claiming to show KAB strikes on Ukrainian troop locations here. Ukrainian General Staff reports 6 combat engagements in the Kharkiv direction and 3 in the Kupiansk direction over the past day. (Colonelcassad, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Kazan (Russia): Children performed a song about a deceased Russian soldier, linked to Victory Day. (Два майора)
Shakhtyorsk Direction (Donetsk Oblast): Воин DV claims Russian drone operators destroyed a Ukrainian strongpoint here. (Воин DV)
Khabarovsk Krai (Russia): Road traffic incident involving a high-speed chase and detention occurred on May 9th. (Полиция Хабаровского края)
St. Petersburg (Russia): Russian military blogger is showcasing naval shipbuilding facilities at the Admiralty Shipyards. (Басурин о главном)
Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky (Russia): Solemn march by parade calculations for Victory Day. (Воин DV)
Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk (Russia): Solemn march by parade calculations for Victory Day. (Воин DV)
Kharkiv (Mеморіал): Some local residents laid flowers at the memorial on Victory Day. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Mogilev (Belarus): Russian military blogger shares video of two young women making a "salute" that the blogger interprets as disrespecting Victory Day and veterans, sparking commentary about their potential "re-education" by Belarusian services. This highlights information operations regarding public sentiment in Belarus and potentially a crackdown on perceived dissent. (НгП раZVедка)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Russian and Ukrainian drone activity continues. Claims of drone attacks and interceptions on both sides. Fundraising efforts for drones. Ukrainian Airborne Assault Forces highlight significant drone capabilities received from a foundation, including FPV, strike ("Kazhan"), and reconnaissance drones. Russian forces used 170 UAVs in strikes on Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past day. Воин DV claims Russian drone operators destroyed a Ukrainian strongpoint on the Shakhtyorsk direction. The Russian army attacked the Marhanets hromada in the Nikopol district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with an FPV drone this morning. Ukrainian General Staff reports estimated Russian drone losses for the past day as 36 and reports the enemy used 2174 kamikaze drones over the past day. Ukrainian General Staff reports striking one enemy UAV control point. Russian military blogger discusses the importance of developing and utilizing drone interceptors against Ukrainian UAVs. (Previous reporting, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns, РБК-Україна, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Воин DV, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Рыбарь)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Repeated launches of KABs towards Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast were reported, but the threat has been cleared. The threat from aerial attacks for Donetsk and Sumy has been cleared. Russian sources share footage claiming to show KAB strikes on Ukrainian troop locations in Kolodeznoye, Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainian General Staff reports the enemy dropped 69 guided bombs on Ukrainian positions and settlements and 21 guided bombs in Kursk Oblast over the past day. Russian aviation conducted 34 airstrikes over the past day. (Previous reporting, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Missile Activity: Missile danger announced in southern Ukraine. Airspace closed over Kapustin Yar test site. Reports of potential Iranian supply of missiles to Russia. India and Pakistan report exchanges involving ballistic and cruise missiles. The Ukrainian Navy reports one Kalibr carrier with 8 missiles in the Mediterranean Sea. Reuters, via RBC-Ukraine, reports Iran is preparing to supply Fateh-360 short-range ballistic missile launchers to Russia. Pakistan has announced the start of a large-scale military operation against India, claiming missile strikes on Indian airfields and a BrahMos missile storage depot. Pakistan shares video claiming Fateh-1 missile launch. Ukrainian General Staff reports the enemy conducted over 4100 shellings in total, including 35 from MLRS, over the past day. Ukrainian General Staff reports striking two other important enemy targets. Russia is closing the airspace in the area of the Kapustin Yar test site on May 12th and 13th, suggesting planned missile testing. (Previous reporting, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Оперативний ЗСУ, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС)
Aviation Activity: Activity of enemy tactical aviation reported on southeastern and northeastern directions. Potential Indian air strike on a Pakistani Air Force Base. Pakistan claims India launched "air-to-ground" missiles. India claims strikes on Pakistani airbases. Pakistan has announced the temporary closure of its airspace. Russian sources share footage claiming to show KAB strikes from aviation in Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainian General Staff reports Russia conducted 34 air strikes over the past day and 13 in the Kursk operational zone. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern direction. (Previous reporting, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Naval Activity: No new specific naval engagements reported. Ukrainian maritime drone operations suggested. The Ukrainian Navy reports zero Russian naval vessels or Kalibr missile carriers in the Black and Azov Seas as of 06:00 on May 10th, but one Kalibr carrier with 8 missiles in the Mediterranean. Logistical movement through the Kerch Strait continues. Russian military blogger is showcasing naval shipbuilding facilities in St. Petersburg. (Previous reporting, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Басурин о главном)
Air Defense Activity: Air defense systems active over Islamabad, Pakistan. Pakistan claims interceptions. (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Russian forces conducted 111 artillery shellings and 3 MLRS shellings on Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past day. Ukrainian General Staff reports estimated Russian artillery losses for the past day as 49 and MLRS losses as 35 total shellings. Ukrainian General Staff reports the enemy conducted over 4100 shellings in total, including 35 from MLRS, over the past day. Ukrainian General Staff reports striking three enemy artillery systems. Ukrainian forces repelled 316 artillery shellings in the Kursk operational zone over the past day. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Victory Day Narratives: Extensive Russian information operations around Victory Day continue, emphasizing historical narratives and linking them to the ongoing conflict. Celebratory events are reported. Foreign leaders are in Moscow for celebrations. Russian officials are making statements related to the holiday. A large "DPR" flag was displayed in the center of Donetsk. Two Majors shares a video of children performing a song about a deceased Russian soldier and Victory Day, as part of information operations. TASS is disseminating historical FSB archival materials claiming that priests of the Uniate church in Zakarpattia Oblast during WWII supported fascist occupiers and instilled fascist ideology in youth, as part of Victory Day information operations. Russian military units participated in Victory Day commemorations from occupied DNR territory. Military parades for Victory Day are occurring in Russian Far East cities. Some local residents in Kharkiv were observed laying flowers at a WWII memorial on Victory Day. Senior figures from the Korean People's Army were reportedly honored guests at the Moscow Victory Day parade. A Russian military blogger in Belarus shares a video and commentary about young women making a gesture perceived as disrespectful to Victory Day, suggesting potential "re-education" and highlighting the importance of explaining the holiday to youth. (Previous reporting, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, Kadyrov_95, Операция Z: Воenkory Russkoy Vesny, Alex Parker Returns, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, Два майора, Воин DV, НгП раZVедка)
International Efforts for Peace: Discussions regarding a 30-day ceasefire proposal continue. Different perspectives on negotiations and the role of mediators are highlighted. TASS reports Peskov stated that Ukraine wants to avoid negotiations. TASS reports Peskov stated that a temporary truce must include a cessation of arms supplies to Ukraine. TASS reports Peskov stated Russia hopes US mediation will help convince Kyiv to be more flexible. Colonelcassad reports European Parliamentarians are calling for dialogue with Russia due to the risk of nuclear war. РБК-Україна, citing ABC News, reports Peskov reiterated that for a ceasefire, the West must stop supplying weapons to Ukraine and repeated claims of Kyiv avoiding negotiations and the potential role of US/Trump mediation. Donald Trump has publicly appealed to Zelenskyy and Putin to "finish this stupid war." ASTRA reports Peskov stated the Kremlin refuses a 30-day ceasefire unless weapons supplies to Ukraine are stopped. Operatyvnyy ZSU reiterates Trump's call for an end to the war and Peskov's counter-claim that Putin is "trying to settle the war" but Ukrainians are avoiding negotiations and that Western arms supplies make a ceasefire impossible. (Previous reporting, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Russia-Brazil Relations: The topic of Ukraine was raised during Putin's meeting with Brazilian President Lula da Silva. (Previous reporting)
Russia-Slovakia Relations: Putin valued Slovak Prime Prime Minister Fico's attendance at Victory Day celebrations, and Fico's stance on sanctions and energy supplies were highlighted. (Previous reporting, ТАСС, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, РБК-Україна)
Internal Ukrainian Politics: Bail posted for a former official. Discussion of EU accession timeline. Concerns raised about Hungarian intelligence activities. Alleged forced mobilization claimed by Russian sources. Captured Ukrainian servicewoman used for propaganda. (Previous reporting, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Colonelcassad)
Internal Russian Politics: Comments on a ceasefire. Daily figures on claimed Ukrainian losses. Victory Day celebrations are a major focus. Meeting with foreign leaders. Statements on international relations. Corruption case reported. TASS reports the completion of a criminal case against a former senior Ministry of Emergency Situations official. TASS reports on the average social pension size. TASS reports on scammers using the theme of polyclinics to steal money through remote access applications. (Previous reporting, MoD Russia, Kadyrov_95, ТАСС, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, Colonelcassad)
Iran-Russia Relations: Reuters sources report Iran is preparing to supply launch systems for Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia. Reuters, via RBC-Ukraine, reports Iran is preparing to supply Fateh-360 short-range ballistic missile launchers to Russia. (Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Russia-Uzbekistan Relations: Putin met with the President of Uzbekistan. (ТАСС)
US-China Relations: Donald Trump comments on potential for a fair trade deal. (ТАСС)
India-Pakistan Conflict: Escalation reported with alleged strikes and explosions. Pakistan announced a large-scale military operation and temporary airspace closure. Pakistan claims striking Indian airbases and a BrahMos missile storage depot. India states Pakistan is continuing escalation and Indian armed forces will respond. Pakistan has announced the start of a large-scale military operation "Unbreakable Wall" against India, citing Reuters. Pakistan shares video claiming Fateh-1 missile launch and impact on Indian military objects. (ТАСС, РБК-Україна, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
European Leaders Visit to Kyiv: High-level European leaders are in Kyiv. French President Macron, German Chancellor Merz, British Prime Minister Starmer, and Polish Prime Minister Tusk are en route to Kyiv. They have arrived in Kyiv for a meeting of the "coalition of the resolute". (ТАСС, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO)
Russia-US Relations: Russian Ambassador's statement on restoring relations. Former US President Trump's call for an end to the war. EU joined the US in calling for a ceasefire. TASS reports Peskov stated Russia hopes US mediation will help convince Kyiv to be more flexible. Donald Trump has publicly appealed to Zelenskyy and Putin to end the war. Operatyvnyy ZSU reiterates Trump's call for an end to the war and Peskov's counter-claim that Putin is "trying to settle the war" but Ukrainians are avoiding negotiations and that Western arms supplies make a ceasefire impossible. (ТАСС, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Poland-Ukraine Relations: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is in Kyiv. Polish Prime Minister Tusk is en route to Kyiv. He has arrived in Kyiv. (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO)
Hungary-EU Relations: Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó's statement on delaying peace talks. (TASS)
European Parliament: Colonelcassad reports that a number of moderate European Parliamentarians are calling for dialogue with Russia due to the risk of nuclear war. (Colonelcassad)
North Korea-Russia Relations: Kim Jong Un has stated North Korea's participation in the "Russian-Ukrainian war" was justified, praised participants in the "Kursk operation," and warned the US against military provocations against Russia, stating North Korea would not hesitate to use military force. Senior figures from the Korean People's Army were reportedly honored guests at the Moscow Victory Day parade. A Russian military blogger claims that monuments will be erected and streets named in all settlements of Kursk Oblast that were "liberated" with the participation of servicemen and special forces of the Korean army. (РБК-Україна, НгП раZVедка)
Belarus Internal Situation: A Russian military blogger shares a video and commentary about young women in Mogilev making a gesture perceived as disrespectful to Victory Day, suggesting potential "re-education" by Belarusian services and highlighting the importance of explaining the holiday to youth. (НгП раZVедка)

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security: Continued reports of security incidents. Firework display attributed to "partisans." Destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points claimed. Airspace closure. Scammer activity reported. TASS reports on scammers using the theme of polyclinics to steal money through remote access applications. Road traffic incident involving a high-speed chase and detention occurred in Khabarovsk Krai on May 9th. Russia is closing the airspace in the area of the Kapustin Yar test site on May 12th and 13th, suggesting planned missile testing or activity hazardous to air navigation. (Previous reporting, Два майора, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, ТАСС, Полиция Хабаровского края, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Casualties: Civilian casualties reported in Sumy Oblast due to Russian shelling. Alleged forced mobilization claimed by Russian sources. Alleged mistreatment of Russian POWs claimed by Russian sources. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports three injuries from Russian strikes over the past day. Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlitz" reports the "successful demobilization" (likely death) of Lieutenant Colonel Oгай Роман, Deputy Commander of the Russian 6th Tank Regiment. Ukrainian General Staff reports estimated Russian losses for the past day as 1310 personnel. (Previous reporting, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц", Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian claims of successful offensive operations and drone effectiveness. Military blogger reporting and fundraising. Use of tactical aviation and KABs. Potential Iranian missile supply. Military commemoration events and imagery. TASS reports the completion of a criminal case against a former senior Ministry of Emergency Situations official, which could have implications for the perception of internal processes within related structures. Launches of KABs towards Donetsk and Sumy were reported, indicating continued operational capability, but the threat has been cleared. Colonelcassad shares a video highlighting the work and technical capabilities of signal units of the 25th Army. There are currently no Russian missile carriers detected in the Black or Azov Seas, though one is in the Mediterranean. Russian sources share footage claiming to show KAB strikes from aviation in Kharkiv Oblast. India states Pakistan is continuing escalation and Indian armed forces will respond, suggesting potential for further military action by Indian forces against Pakistan. DeepState reports Russian forces have advanced near Romanivka, Oleksandropil, and Nova Poltavka. Reuters, via RBC-Ukraine, reports Iran is preparing to supply Fateh-360 short-range ballistic missile launchers to Russia. Pakistan shares video claiming Fateh-1 missile launch. Russian forces conducted 284 strikes on Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past day, including 170 UAVs, 3 MLRS, and 111 artillery shellings. Воин DV claims Russian drone operators destroyed a Ukrainian strongpoint on the Shakhtyorsk direction. The Russian army attacked the Marhanets hromada in the Nikopol district with an FPV drone this morning. Ukrainian General Staff reports estimated Russian losses for the past day, including 1310 personnel and significant equipment, highlighting ongoing attrition. Ukrainian General Staff reports 196 combat engagements over the past day, with specific numbers for the Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Siversk, Orikhiv, and Pridniprovskyi directions, and the Kursk operational zone. Ukrainian General Staff reports the enemy used 2174 kamikaze drones over the past day. Russian military units participated in Victory Day commemorations from occupied DNR territory. Military parades for Victory Day are occurring in Russian Far East cities. Russian military blogger is showcasing naval shipbuilding facilities in St. Petersburg. Russian military blogger discusses the importance of developing and utilizing drone interceptors against Ukrainian UAVs. Russia is closing the airspace in the area of the Kapustin Yar test site on May 12th and 13th, suggesting planned missile testing. A Russian military blogger claims that monuments will be erected and streets named in all settlements of Kursk Oblast that were "liberated" with the participation of servicemen and special forces of the Korean army, acknowledging North Korean military involvement. (Previous reporting, DeepState, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Оперативный ЗСУ, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, ТАСС, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Генеральний штаб ЗSU, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Воин DV, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Басурин о главном, Рыбарь, Оперативний ЗСУ, НгП раZVедка)
Civilian Casualties: Civilian casualties reported in Sumy Oblast due to Russian shelling. Alleged forced mobilization claimed by Russian sources. Alleged mistreatment of Russian POWs claimed by Russian sources. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports three injuries from Russian strikes over the past day. (Previous reporting, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)
Information Control and Censorship: Extensive information campaigning around Victory Day. Use of historical narratives and events for propaganda. Alleged negative information about Ukraine disseminated. Use of AI-generated content for propaganda. A large "DPR" flag was displayed in the center of Donetsk ahead of "Republic Day," an overt act of political symbolism. Two Majors shares a video of children performing a song linked to Victory Day, as part of information operations. TASS is disseminating historical FSB archival materials claiming that priests of the Uniate church in Zakarpattia Oblast during WWII supported fascist occupiers and instilled fascist ideology in youth. Russian military units participated in Victory Day commemorations from occupied DNR territory. Military parades for Victory Day are occurring in Russian Far East cities. A Russian military blogger in Belarus shares a video and commentary about young women making a gesture perceived as disrespectful to Victory Day, suggesting potential "re-education" and highlighting the importance of explaining the holiday to youth. (Previous reporting, Alex Parker Returns, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, Два майора, Воин DV, НгП раZVедка)
Military Commemoration and Information Operations: Victory Day celebrations and associated events are a major focus, including parades, memorials, and historical narratives. Use of military personnel in commemorative events. A large "DPR" flag was displayed in the center of Donetsk ahead of "Republic Day." Two Majors shares a video of children performing a song about a deceased Russian soldier and Victory Day, as part of information operations. TASS is disseminating historical FSB archival materials to support their narrative. Russian military units participated in Victory Day commemorations from occupied DNR territory. Military parades for Victory Day are occurring in Russian Far East cities. Russian military blogger is showcasing naval shipbuilding facilities in St. Petersburg. Russian military blogger in Belarus shares a video and commentary about young women making a gesture perceived as disrespectful to Victory Day, suggesting potential "re-education" and highlighting the importance of explaining the holiday to youth. Senior figures from the Korean People's Army were reportedly honored guests at the Moscow Victory Day parade. A Russian military blogger claims that monuments will be erected and streets named in all settlements of Kursk Oblast that were "liberated" with the participation of servicemen and special forces of the Korean army. (Previous reporting, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Два майора, Воин DV, Басурин о главном, НгП раZVедка)
Public Support for the Military: Fundraising efforts continue. Colonelcassad's video on signal units likely aims to bolster public perception and support for this branch of the military. Two Majors' video of children performing a song about a deceased soldier is an example of fostering public support. A Russian military blogger is reporting increased tasking for their activities, potentially indicating a continued role in information operations or support for the military. (Previous reporting, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Kadyrov_95, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, Два майора, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Corruption: TASS reports the completion of a criminal case regarding a large bribe against the former head of the Samara Main Directorate of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, General Oleg Boyko. This indicates ongoing efforts to address corruption within Russia. (ТАСС)
Social Welfare: TASS reports on the average social pension size in Russia. (TASS)

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Humanitarian Situation: Civilian casualties and damage reported. Alleged forced mobilization and mistreatment of POWs claimed by Russian sources. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports three injuries and damage to civilian property from Russian strikes over the past day. Some local residents in Kharkiv were observed laying flowers at a WWII memorial on Victory Day. (Previous reporting, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Military Support: Fundraising efforts continue. Ukrainian Airborne Assault Forces highlight significant support from the "Come Back Alive" foundation in providing weaponry, drones, and logistical equipment. (Previous reporting, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України)
Cultural Support: Cultural events for military personnel. Monument restoration claimed. Two Majors shares a video of children performing a song about a deceased soldier. Russian military units participated in Victory Day commemorations from occupied DNR territory. Military parades for Victory Day are occurring in Russian Far East cities. (Previous reporting, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, Два майора, Воин DV)

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Russia: Continuing offensive operations with artillery, guided bombs, and drones. Engaging in border regions. Utilizing extensive information operations. Conducting shellings resulting in civilian casualties. Reports of advances. Airspace closure over test site suggests planned missile activity. Potential Iranian missile supply. Military commemoration and imagery. Engaged in military exchanges with India as reported by Pakistan. Launches of KABs towards Donetsk and Sumy were reported, indicating continued operational capability, but the threat has been cleared. Colonelcassad highlights the role and technical capabilities of signal units of the 25th Army. There are currently no Russian missile carriers detected in the Black or Azov Seas, though one is in the Mediterranean. Russian sources share footage claiming to show KAB strikes from aviation in Kharkiv Oblast. India states Pakistan is continuing escalation and Indian armed forces will respond, suggesting potential for further military action by Indian forces against Pakistan. DeepState reports Russian forces have advanced near Romanivka, Oleksandropil, and Nova Poltavka. Reuters, via RBC-Ukraine, reports Iran is preparing to supply Fateh-360 short-range ballistic missile launchers to Russia. Pakistan shares video claiming Fateh-1 missile launch. Russian forces conducted 284 strikes on Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past day, including 170 UAVs, 3 MLRS, and 111 artillery shellings. Воин DV claims Russian drone operators destroyed a Ukrainian strongpoint on the Shakhtyorsk direction. The Russian army attacked the Marhanets hromada in the Nikopol district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with an FPV drone this morning. Ukrainian General Staff reports estimated Russian losses for the past day, including 1310 personnel and significant equipment, highlighting ongoing attrition. Ukrainian General Staff reports 196 combat engagements over the past day, with specific numbers for the Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Siversk, Orikhiv, and Pridniprovskyi directions, and the Kursk operational zone. Ukrainian General Staff reports the enemy used 2174 kamikaze drones over the past day. Russian military units participated in Victory Day commemorations from occupied DNR territory. Military parades for Victory Day are occurring in Russian Far East cities. Russian military blogger is showcasing naval shipbuilding facilities in St. Petersburg. Russian military blogger discusses the importance of developing and utilizing drone interceptors against Ukrainian UAVs. Russia is closing the airspace in the area of the Kapustin Yar test site on May 12th and 13th, suggesting planned missile testing. A Russian military blogger claims that monuments will be erected and streets named in all settlements of Kursk Oblast that were "liberated" with the participation of servicemen and special forces of the Korean army, acknowledging North Korean military involvement. (Previous reporting, DeepState, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Оперативный ЗСУ, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, ТАСС, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Генеральний штаб ЗSU, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Воин DV, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Воин DV, Басурин о главном, Рыбарь, Оперативний ЗСУ, НгП раZVедка)
Ukraine: Conducting renewed ground offensive actions in Kursk Oblast (contested reports). Utilizing drones for deep strikes into Russian territory and for tactical engagements, including rescue operations. Repelling numerous Russian ground assaults. Maintaining defenses against Russian aerial and missile attacks. Reporting on estimated daily Russian losses. Potentially deploying elite drone units. Continuing fundraising efforts. Actively commemorating fallen soldiers. Demonstrating tactical medical preparedness. Highlighting Russian casualties. Reporting on Russian activity and casualties in specific oblasts. Improving medical rehabilitation facilities. Conducting targeted strikes on individuals associated with Russian-installed administrations. Liberated a forest area near Lyptsi. Conducting special operations in the enemy rear. Training territorial defense forces. Pursuing legal accountability for war crimes. Engaging with the Coordination Headquarters for Treatment of Prisoners of War. Training military personnel in tactical medicine. Experiencing civilian casualties from Russian drone attacks and shelling. Claiming destruction of Russian equipment. Hosting European leaders. Alleged forced mobilization claimed by Russian sources. Calling for a ceasefire. Ukrainian Airborne Assault Forces highlight significant support from a foundation, showcasing advanced weaponry and drone capabilities. High-level European leaders are en route to Kyiv. They have arrived in Kyiv. Ukrainian General Staff reports estimated Russian losses for the past day, including 1310 personnel and significant equipment. Colonelcassad reports the alleged presence of Western PMCs from Poland, Lithuania, Denmark, and Great Britain in the Kursk direction to assist Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian General Staff reports 196 combat engagements over the past day, with Ukrainian forces repelling attacks on multiple fronts. Ukrainian General Staff reports striking seven areas of concentration of enemy personnel and equipment, one UAV control point, three artillery systems, and two other important targets. Anatoliy Shtefan "Shtirlitz" reports the "successful demobilization" (likely death) of Lieutenant Colonel Oгай Роман, Deputy Commander of the Russian 6th Tank Regiment. Some local residents in Kharkiv were observed laying flowers at a WWII memorial on Victory Day. (Previous reporting, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Оперативний ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц", Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, STERNENKO)
Pakistan: Engaged in escalating conflict with India. Announced a large-scale military operation and temporary airspace closure. Pakistan claims striking Indian airbases and a BrahMos missile storage depot. The Pakistani Foreign Ministry stated that their strikes on India are defensive, but India now states Pakistan is continuing escalation and Indian armed forces will respond. Pakistan has announced the start of a large-scale military operation "Unbreakable Wall" against India, citing Reuters. Pakistan shares video claiming Fateh-1 missile launch. (ТАСС, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
India: Engaged in escalating conflict with Pakistan. Previously halted flights at numerous airports. India states Pakistan is continuing escalation and Indian armed forces will respond. (РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, ТАСС, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
North Korea: Kim Jong Un has stated North Korea's participation in the "Russian-Ukrainian war" was justified, praised participants in the "Kursk operation," and warned the US against military provocations against Russia, stating North Korea would not hesitate to use military force. Senior figures from the Korean People's Army were reportedly honored guests at the Moscow Victory Day parade. A Russian military blogger claims that monuments will be erected and streets named in all settlements of Kursk Oblast that were "liberated" with the participation of servicemen and special forces of the Korean army. (РБК-Україна, НгП раZVедка)
Western PMCs: Colonelcassad reports the alleged presence of PMCs from Poland, Lithuania, Denmark, and Great Britain in the Kursk direction, potentially for sabotage missions. (Colonelcassad)

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The continued large-scale and damaging Russian drone and missile attacks on Kyiv and other urban centers, now with updated civilian casualty figures and visual confirmation of destruction, underscore the ongoing Russian strategy of targeting civilian infrastructure to inflict casualties and psychological impact. The use of combined tactics (drones and potentially ballistic missiles) suggests an effort to saturate defenses. The reported three injured in Zaporizhzhia Oblast highlight the severity of the humanitarian impact on multiple fronts.
Ukraine's confirmed targeting of the "Saranskkaбель" and JSC "Optical Fiber Systems" plants in Saransk with drones is a clear strategic move to degrade Russia's defense industrial base, specifically facilities potentially contributing to drone production or control. This aligns with a strategy of striking targets deep within Russia to disrupt their war effort.
The continued and multifaceted Russian strikes on Zaporizhzhia Oblast, involving aviation, drones, MLRS, and artillery, demonstrate the persistent pressure on this front and the significant impact on civilian populations and infrastructure, resulting in injuries and damage.
The reported escalation of tensions and casualties on the India-Pakistan border is a significant regional development that, while not directly related to Ukraine, adds to the complex global geopolitical landscape and could have indirect implications. India's statement of continued escalation by Pakistan and intent to respond indicates a high probability of further military action in this region.
Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian UAV command posts and equipment with drones suggest a focus on countering Ukraine's effective use of drones by targeting their control infrastructure and assets. This indicates a tactical adaptation to Ukraine's asymmetric capabilities.
The updated figures on estimated Russian losses, particularly the high daily attrition in personnel, artillery, and vehicles, if accurate, highlight the significant human and material cost of the conflict for Russia and could impact their long-term sustainability and operational capacity. The reported death of a Russian Lieutenant Colonel who was a Deputy Commander of a Tank Regiment is a notable loss of a mid-level officer, which can impact unit leadership and experience.
The reported use of a fiber-optic guided kamikaze drone by Ukraine, if confirmed, indicates the integration of advanced technology into their drone warfare, potentially offering enhanced precision and resistance to electronic warfare, which could impact tactical engagements.
The visit of the Brazilian President to Russia for Victory Day celebrations indicates ongoing diplomatic efforts by Russia to maintain international engagement and project an image of normalcy despite the conflict.
The Russian attacks on populated areas in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast using guided aerial bombs, kamikaze drones, and artillery further illustrate the widespread impact of the conflict on Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure.
The absence of Russian missile carriers in the Black and Azov Seas, while a potential tactical shift, is offset by the presence of a Kalibr carrier in the Mediterranean, indicating a continued long-range strike capability.
The fighting in Sudan and the DRC, as reported by a Russian military blogger, highlight other ongoing conflicts and Russia's engagement in those regions, which could have broader geopolitical implications.
The controlled situation reported in Kryvyi Rih, along with the planned production blast, provides a localized snapshot of areas under Ukrainian control and normal civilian activities, contrasting with the areas experiencing active hostilities.
The clear disregard for the declared ceasefire by Russian forces, combined with ongoing intense combat and attempts to advance across multiple axes, reinforces the assessment that Russia is not genuinely committed to de-escalation at this time. This necessitates continued high-level operational readiness and defensive efforts on the Ukrainian side. The acknowledgement of continued fighting by Russian military bloggers further supports this assessment. The Ukrainian report of repelling numerous assaults across multiple directions (Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Siversk, Orikhiv, Pridniprovskyi, and Kursk operational zone) and Russian claims of advances indicate continued active engagement across key fronts. The high number of reported combat engagements (196 total) underscores the overall intensity of the conflict across the front line.
The persistent and high-intensity fighting in the Kursk and Belgorod border regions remains a key area of concern. The alleged participation of North Korean military personnel in combat operations in this area, if confirmed, and the official Russian statement about future commemoration, would represent a major strategic shift with potential implications for the scale and nature of future operations in border regions and could significantly escalate the international dimension of the conflict and potentially signal broader military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, which is further supported by the deepening ties acknowledged by Kim Jong Un and Maria Zakharova. Continued Ukrainian attempts to breach the border in these regions, and Russian defensive actions, indicate this area remains a significant focus for both sides. The Ukrainian claim of controlling Hormal', Kursk Oblast, if even temporarily true, would represent a successful raid action and a challenge to Russian border control, potentially aimed at diverting resources or demonstrating capability. The drone attack on the Belgorod government building highlights the continued vulnerability of Russian administrative centers in border regions and could be intended to disrupt governance and infrastructure, as well as serving as a psychological impact operation. Colonelcassad's report of alleged Western PMC presence in the Kursk direction, if true, is a significant development regarding foreign personnel involvement, though the scale and impact of their involvement remain to be seen. Ukrainian General Staff reporting repelled attacks, airstrikes, and artillery shelling in the Kursk operational zone highlights this as a significant area of military activity. A Russian military blogger's claim that monuments will be erected and streets named in honor of Korean army servicemen and special forces in "liberated" settlements of Kursk Oblast, if true, is a significant strategic development indicating formal acknowledgment and commemoration of North Korean military involvement by Russia.
Russia's extensive use of Victory Day for propaganda and military showcase is a significant strategic effort aimed at consolidating domestic support, projecting an image of strength, and linking the current conflict to historical narratives. Countering this narrative and highlighting the disparity between the celebratory rhetoric and the reality of ongoing aggression is crucial for maintaining international support and undermining Russian information operations. Estonia's counter-propaganda efforts, the appearance of the "Kh..ylo" sculpture in Poland, and the Mayor of Vilnius's stance against celebrating Victory Day are notable examples of such counter-narratives. Reports of internal dissent and opposition to the government's Victory Day narrative in Moldova highlight the potential for information operations to exploit existing internal political friction in neighboring countries. The detention of individuals in Kyiv for displaying Soviet symbols underscores the contested nature of these symbols and narratives in Ukraine. TASS disseminating historical FSB documents alleging Ukrainian religious figures collaborated with fascists during WWII is a direct effort to weaponize history and demonize contemporary Ukraine. Russian military units participating in Victory Day commemorations from occupied territories is a clear propaganda tactic to legitimize their presence and actions. The drone attack on the Belgorod government building on Victory Day itself disrupts the carefully curated Russian narrative of celebration and security, providing a counter-narrative of vulnerability. Military parades for Victory Day occurring in Russian Far East cities underscore the nationwide scale of this information operation and military display. Some local residents in Kharkiv laying flowers at a WWII memorial on Victory Day provides a localized counterpoint to the broader narratives. Russian military blogger showcasing naval shipbuilding facilities is another element of projecting military strength and technological capability. A Russian military blogger in Belarus sharing a video and commentary about young women making a gesture perceived as disrespectful to Victory Day highlights how the holiday is being used for information operations and to address perceived internal dissent or lack of patriotic fervor in a key allied state.
The uncovering of an alleged Hungarian military intelligence network in Zakarpattia Oblast introduces a new dimension of internal security risk and could impact regional relations and Ukraine's ability to secure its western borders. The Hungarian Foreign Minister's denial, framing it as "anti-Hungarian propaganda," highlights the political sensitivity of this issue.
The continued widespread use of drones and guided aerial bombs by Russia, as highlighted by their showcase in the Moscow parade and reports of their use in attacks, poses a persistent threat across Ukraine and requires continued focus on air defense capabilities. Ukraine's development of new maritime drones and the apparent high operational tempo of their drone usage highlight an evolving asymmetric warfare strategy. The reported use of a Russian reconnaissance UAV to correct strikes on Shostka indicates continued Russian targeting of civilian infrastructure and potentially military targets in border regions with aerial reconnaissance. The Russian military blogger's report of Russian FPV drone attack on a civilian car resulting in injuries underscores the humanitarian impact of drone warfare and potential targeting of civilian vehicles. Ukrainian forces utilizing drones to repel mechanized assaults on the Siversk direction and damaging Russian armor demonstrates the effectiveness of drones in tactical engagements. The Ukrainian drone attack on the government building in Belgorod highlights the strategic reach of Ukrainian drone capabilities. Russian military bloggers conducting fundraising for drones indicates the ongoing critical need for these assets at the tactical level. The high number of UAV attacks reported by the Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (170 in the past day) underscores the intensity of Russian drone usage on this front. Ukrainian General Staff reporting the enemy used 2174 kamikaze drones over the past day indicates the massive scale of Russian drone attacks. Russian military blogger discussing the importance of developing and utilizing drone interceptors against Ukrainian UAVs highlights Russian efforts to counter Ukrainian drone effectiveness.
Ongoing diplomatic engagements and international support for Ukraine, including the EU foreign ministers meeting in Lviv and the reported UK sanctions on Russia's "shadow fleet," remain crucial for Ukraine's defense capabilities, strategic positioning, and long-term recovery. Continued European support for heavily affected regions like Kharkiv is also vital. Lucashenko's statements regarding China and Russia's readiness for peace reflect efforts to shape the diplomatic narrative. The UK's announcement of its largest sanctions package yet targeting the "shadow fleet" is a significant economic pressure tactic. The new German Chancellor's threat of new sanctions and support for a ceasefire proposal with the aim of a "real peace treaty" indicates continued international efforts to find a diplomatic resolution, albeit with a threat of increased pressure if it fails. The absence of the US ambassador at the Victory Day parade signals continued diplomatic strain. EU Foreign Ministers approving the creation of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Russia is a significant step towards international legal accountability and could have long-term strategic implications for Russia. Lithuania's push for new and expanded EU sanctions indicates continued international pressure on Russia and the potential for further economic measures. The visit of high-level European leaders to Kyiv demonstrates continued strong political and diplomatic support for Ukraine.
China's reported push for a "just, lasting, and binding peace agreement" in Ukraine, while still aligning with its general support for a peaceful resolution, could represent a subtle shift or a more active assertion of its own interests in global stability, potentially influencing the diplomatic landscape.
The continued reporting of civilian casualties and humanitarian issues, particularly in occupied territories like Mariupol and front-line towns like Kostiantynivka, underscores the significant human cost of the conflict and highlights the importance of international humanitarian efforts and accountability for alleged war crimes. The closure of essential services in Kostiantynivka demonstrates the devastating impact on civilian life in heavily shelled areas. The reported FPV drone attack on a civilian car in Zaporizhzhia district further highlights the risks to civilians from drone usage. The injuries sustained by civilians in the Belgorod government building attack, while in Russia, underscore the human cost of the conflict extending beyond the immediate front lines. The report of three injuries in Zaporizhzhia Oblast from Russian strikes confirms the ongoing civilian impact of the conflict.
Ukraine's focus on recruiting AI specialists, discussions on personnel management, and recruitment for specialized units signal a strategic investment in technological superiority and adapting its forces for the long term. The full rollout of Russia's electronic subpoena registry across Russia suggests a strategic effort to streamline and significantly enhance their mobilization capabilities, indicating a preparedness for sustained or escalated conflict. DBR detaining the deputy rector of the National Academy of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine and the investigation into another MSEK official for corruption highlights ongoing efforts within Ukraine to address internal issues that could impact institutional effectiveness and public trust, which are important for long-term resilience.
Warnings from European leaders, such as the Prime Minister of the Netherlands regarding Russia's potential to build up forces for another war in Europe within 2-3 years, highlight the broader strategic implications of the conflict and the need for continued Western vigilance and preparedness.
Reports of Russia using S-300/S-400 mockups in the Far East while redeploying real systems westward could indicate strategic prioritization of forces towards the conflict in Ukraine, potentially creating vulnerabilities in other regions and highlighting the strain on Russia's overall military resources.
The focus on the psychological impact of the conflict and providing support for those affected is crucial for maintaining the long-term resilience and morale of the Ukrainian population and armed forces, which is a key strategic consideration in a protracted conflict. Messages emphasizing not imposing "heroism" and respecting the privacy of those who have been in captivity reflect an understanding of the psychological complexities of the conflict.
The Russian Ministry of Defense's claims of ceasefire violations by Ukraine and their stated "mirror-like" reaction suggest an effort to control the narrative around the ceasefire and justify continued military actions. This is part of the ongoing information war. Russian military bloggers also frame continued Ukrainian actions as violations despite the ceasefire. Peskov's explicit statement refusing a ceasefire without cessation of arms supplies to Ukraine underscores Russia's firm stance and is a key factor in assessing the potential for diplomatic breakthroughs. Operatyvnyy ZSU reiterates Trump's call for an end to the war and Peskov's counter-claim that Putin is "trying to settle the war" but Ukrainians are avoiding negotiations and that Western arms supplies make a ceasefire impossible.
The continued functioning of a medical college in a shelter in Zaporizhzhia highlights the resilience of educational institutions and efforts to maintain human capital development despite the conflict, which is a long-term strategic consideration.
The detention of a Russian informant in Kharkiv indicates ongoing counter-intelligence efforts by Ukraine to neutralize internal threats and prevent intelligence gathering by Russia.
A Russian military blogger's critical reflection on the causes of the current conflict, attributing it partly to past mistakes, suggests a level of internal debate and potential for questioning of the official narrative within Russia, which could have long-term implications for domestic support and political stability.
The significant escalation in the India-Pakistan conflict, with Pakistan announcing a large-scale military operation and reported missile exchanges, is a major regional destabilization that will likely draw international attention and could potentially impact global supply chains and diplomatic priorities. This requires careful monitoring for its potential indirect effects on the conflict in Ukraine.
The reported transfer of Fateh-360 short-range ballistic missile launchers from Iran to Russia, if confirmed, is a significant strategic development that would enhance Russia's ability to conduct precision strikes against Ukrainian forces and infrastructure and indicates deepening military cooperation between the two countries.
The airspace closure over the Kapustin Yar test site suggests potential planned missile testing, which could provide insights into Russia's missile development programs and capabilities.
The arrival of high-level European leaders in Kyiv for a meeting of the "coalition of the resolute" is a clear demonstration of continued strong international support for Ukraine and provides an opportunity for coordinated strategic discussions and planning.
A Russian military blogger's claim that monuments will be erected and streets named in all settlements of Kursk Oblast that were "liberated" with the participation of servicemen and special forces of the Korean army is a significant strategic development, indicating formal acknowledgment and commemoration of North Korean military involvement by Russia.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report