Sitrep 2025-05-10 01:41:15

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 10, 2025, 01:40 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment continues to be defined by ongoing ground combat, particularly in the Kursk border region and across key axes in Donetsk Oblast. Russian claims of a ceasefire around Victory Day remain contradicted by evidence of continued fighting and significant Russian aerial and drone activity, including launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) towards Sumy Oblast. The major new development is the significant escalation between India and Pakistan, with Pakistan announcing the start of a large-scale military operation against India ("Bunyan un Marsoos") and extending the temporary closure of its airspace. This escalates the regional conflict beyond reported exchanges. New reports indicate Pakistan claims striking Indian airbases and a BrahMos missile storage depot. Russian forces continue to report advances in Donetsk Oblast. Information operations surrounding Victory Day are extensive, both domestically and internationally. The Putin-Fico meeting highlighted Slovakia's opposition to EU sanctions on Russian energy. A high-level visit by European leaders to Kyiv underscores continued international support for Ukraine. Diplomatic efforts continue, with the EU reiterating its call for a 30-day ceasefire. Reports of a captured Ukrainian servicewoman are circulating on Russian channels, utilized for propaganda. Russian sources are disseminating claims of mistreatment and torture of Russian prisoners of war by Ukrainian forces. Russian state media reports on scammers leveraging the theme of polyclinics to steal money through remote access applications.

New information further details the escalating India-Pakistan conflict, Russian aerial activity, Russian information operations, the situation on the ground, and internal Russian issues. Recent messages add commentary from Dmitry Peskov regarding Ukraine's willingness to negotiate, the conditions for a temporary truce, and the potential role of US mediation. Additionally, a report highlights European Parliamentarians calling for dialogue with Russia due to the risk of nuclear war.

Pakistan Initiates Large-Scale Military Operation Against India: TASS, РБК-Україна, and ASTRA, citing Geo TV and the Pakistani government, report that Pakistan has announced the start of a large-scale military operation against India, named "Bunyan un Marsoos" ("Strong Wall"). This marks a significant escalation in the India-Pakistan conflict beyond the previously reported exchanges of fire and alleged strikes. (ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ASTRA)
Extended Airspace Closure in Pakistan: РБК-Україна reports that Pakistan has temporarily closed its airspace until 12:00 local time (10:00 Kyiv time), with no aircraft currently flying over the country. This follows India's earlier halt of flights at 32 airports on its western border with Pakistan and underscores the heightened tension and operational caution in the region's airspace. The closure extends the duration beyond the initial report. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Renewed Russian Tactical Aviation Activity and Threat to Frontline Regions: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and РБК-Україна report renewed activity of enemy tactical aviation on the southeastern direction, with a threat of using aerial weapons against frontline oblasts. This indicates continued Russian aerial operations and the potential for strikes on Ukrainian positions and settlements near the front lines. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна)
Russian Information Operation - Captured Ukrainian Servicewoman: Colonelcassad shares a video and claims a captured Ukrainian servicewoman from the 425 assault regiment "Skała" was taken prisoner on the Pokrovsk direction. The post includes derogatory remarks about her personal characteristics, framing her as representative of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' personnel. This is a clear example of Russian information operations utilizing captured personnel for propaganda purposes to demoralize Ukrainian forces and influence public perception. (Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Pakistan Claims Strikes on Indian Airbases and Missile Depot: РБК-Україна and ASTRA, citing Reuters and Geo TV, report that Pakistan claims to have struck airfields at Pathankot and Udhampur, as well as a BrahMos missile storage depot in Beas. These reports, while requiring independent verification, indicate the scope and nature of Pakistan's claimed targets in their operation against India. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ASTRA)
Russian Information Operation - Alleged Mistreatment of POWs: Colonelcassad shares a video with testimony from a returned Russian serviceman ("Zmey") alleging torture and mistreatment by Ukrainian forces during captivity. The post frames this as evidence of "atrocities by Ukrainian neo-Nazis" and links it to a "International Public Tribunal." This is a clear and direct Russian information operation aimed at demonizing Ukrainian forces, justifying Russian actions, and potentially influencing international perceptions regarding the treatment of prisoners of war. (Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Internal Russian Issue - Scammers Using Polyclinic Theme: TASS reports that scammers in Russia are using the theme of polyclinics to trick individuals into downloading remote access applications, thereby gaining access to their devices and potentially stealing money. This highlights an internal Russian issue related to cybersecurity and fraud, unrelated to the conflict but noteworthy in the overall information environment. (ТАСС)
Peskov on Ukraine Avoiding Negotiations: TASS reports that Dmitry Peskov stated that Ukraine wants to avoid negotiations on conflict resolution with the Russian Federation. This is a continuation of Russia's narrative placing responsibility for the lack of diplomatic progress on Ukraine and framing Ukraine as unwilling to engage in talks. (ТАСС, ТАСС)
Peskov on Conditions for Temporary Truce: TASS reports that Peskov stated that a temporary truce must be accompanied by a cessation of arms supplies to Ukraine. This sets a clear condition from the Russian side for any potential temporary ceasefire and underscores Russia's objective of halting military aid to Ukraine. (ТАСС)
Peskov on US Mediation: TASS reports that Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia hopes that US mediation will help convince the Kyiv regime to be more flexible and show political wisdom. This indicates Russia's view on the role of the US in potential negotiations and expresses a desire for the US to influence Ukraine towards a position more favorable to Russia. (ТАСС)
European Parliamentarians Call for Dialogue with Russia: Colonelcassad reports that a number of moderate European Parliamentarians have called for dialogue with Russia, citing the risk of a nuclear war with NATO. This highlights differing perspectives within European political circles regarding the approach to Russia and the potential dangers of the current trajectory. (Colonelcassad)

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (Romanivka, Oleksandropil, Nova Poltavka, Makeyevka, Pokrovsk Direction, Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk): Russian forces have advanced near Romanivka, Oleksandropil, and Nova Poltavka according to DeepState. Launches of KABs are detected towards Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad shares a video about alleged Nazi atrocities in Makeyevka during WWII, a significant information operation focus. Colonelcassad shares a photo selection titled "Z - in the zone of the Special Military Operation," which likely includes images from the Donetsk direction. Colonelcassad shares a video of a captured Ukrainian servicewoman claimed to be from the Pokrovsk direction. Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny reports claims that Zelenskyy has ordered a psychological operation in Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) involving drones. Colonelcassad shares a video with alleged testimony of mistreatment of Russian POWs by Ukrainian forces, linked to a "International Public Tribunal" and focusing on the "atrocities by Ukrainian neo-Nazis." (DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Sumy Oblast (Bunyakino, Sukhodol, Novovasilievka, Bachevsk): Launches of KABs are detected towards Sumy Oblast. Rocket danger is announced and subsequently cleared for Sumy Oblast. RBC-Ukraine reports three civilian deaths and seven injured in Sumy Oblast over May 8th and 9th due to Russian shelling. Colonelcassad shares video from the Russian "Anvar" special detachment claiming the destruction of Ukrainian forces and assets in settlements in Sumy Oblast (Bunyakino, Sukhodol, Novovasilievka, Bachevsk). New launches of KABs towards Sumy Oblast are reported. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна)
Chernihiv Oblast (Klyusy, Gorsk): Colonelcassad shares video from the Russian "Anvar" special detachment claiming the destruction of Ukrainian forces and assets in settlements in Chernihiv Oblast (Klyusy, Gorsk), specifically targeting UAV control points. (Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Kursk Border Region (including Tetkino): Continued active engagement with reported Ukrainian attempts at incursions and Russian counter-efforts. Russian military bloggers report VDV fighters are engaging and destroying Ukrainian infantry and equipment near Tyotkino. Russian sources are also fundraising for equipment for fighters on the Kursk front due to "enemy activation." (Previous reporting, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Odesa Oblast (Reni): Firework display reported in Reni, attributed to "partisans" by Russian sources, which caused significant reaction in the Ukrainian internet segment. (Два майора, Два майора)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Missile danger is announced for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and subsequently cleared. (Previous reporting, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Fast-moving targets from southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast are detected heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (Previous reporting)
Kapustin Yar Test Site (Astrakhan and Volgograd/Saratov Oblasts, Russia): Airspace closed from May 12th 06:00 to May 13th 06:00 (monitoring) and May 12th 06:00 to May 13th 04:00 UTC (Russian military bloggers), suggesting planned missile testing or activity, potentially involving "Oreshnik" type missiles and likely ballistic missile tests. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Orikhiv Direction: Colonelcassad shares a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling. (Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Rawalpindi, Pakistan: Powerful explosion reported, believed to be an Indian strike on Nur Khan Air Force Base. Fire reported. Pakistan claims interception and destruction of an Indian UAV. Clash Report suggests a Pakistani C-130 may have been hit. India claims a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases, including Nur Khan. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС)
Islamabad, Pakistan: Air defense systems actively working over the capital. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Amritsar, India: Four explosions reported. Pakistan claims five ballistic missiles hit Amritsar. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Adampur, India: Pakistan claims one ballistic missile hit Adampur. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Rafiki Airbase (near Shorkot, Jang district, Pakistan): Pakistan claims air defense intercepted Indian cruise missiles targeting this airbase, with at least one interception. India claims a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases, including this one. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС)
Murid Airbase, Pakistan: Pakistan claims India launched "air-to-ground" missiles at this airbase, stating their facilities are safe. India claims a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases, including this one. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС)
Shorkot Airbase, Pakistan: Pakistan claims India launched "air-to-ground" missiles at this airbase, stating their facilities are safe. Pakistan claims air defense intercepted Indian cruise missiles targeting this airbase, with at least one interception. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Kyiv: French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk are in Kyiv. (ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Moscow: Reports indicate the presence of foreign leaders, including the President of the Republic of Srpska, Milorad Dodik, during Victory Day celebrations. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
New York (UN Headquarters): The Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the UN organized a commemorative event dedicated to the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War. (ТАСС, ТАСС)
India-Pakistan Border Region: Pakistan has initiated a large-scale military operation ("Bunyan un Marsoos") against India. Pakistan has temporarily closed its airspace until 12:00 local time (10:00 Kyiv time). India previously halted flights at 32 airports on its western border with Pakistan. Pakistan claims striking Indian airbases at Pathankot and Udhampur, as well as a BrahMos missile storage depot in Beas. (ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ASTRA)
Pathankot Airfield, India: Pakistan claims to have struck this airfield. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ASTRA)
Udhampur Air Force Base, India: Pakistan claims to have struck this airbase. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ASTRA)
Beas, India: Pakistan claims to have struck a BrahMos missile storage depot here. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ASTRA)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: A drone show was held in Magadan Oblast, Russia, for Victory Day. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for drones and signal amplifiers for the Kursk front. A Ukrainian source shares a video claiming successful work by Ukrainian Black Sea Lions 37th Separate Marine Battalion drone pilots (previous). Archived footage claiming "jewelry precision" destruction of Ukrainian positions in Kharkiv Oblast by Russian UAVs is shared (previous). Peaceful Victory Day drone shows reported in Ola, Magadan Oblast. Colonelcassad shares video from the Russian "Anvar" special detachment claiming the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points in Chernihiv Oblast. Pakistan claims an Indian UAV was intercepted and destroyed over Rawalpindi. (Previous reporting, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Repeated launches of KABs towards Sumy Oblast are reported (previous). KAB launches detected towards Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. New launches of KABs towards Sumy Oblast are reported. (Previous reporting, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна)
Missile Activity: Missile danger is announced for Zaporizhzhia Oblast (previous). Fast-moving targets from southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast are detected heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (previous). Missile danger is announced for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (previous). Airspace closed over Kapustin Yar test site from May 12th-13th, suggesting planned missile activity, potentially involving "Oreshnik" type missiles and likely ballistic missile tests. Reuters sources report Iran is preparing to supply Fath-360 missile launch systems to Russia. Rocket danger is announced and subsequently cleared for Sumy Oblast. India and Pakistan report exchanges involving ballistic and cruise missiles, with India claiming a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases. Pakistan claims striking a BrahMos missile storage depot in Beas, India. (Previous reporting, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ASTRA)
Aviation Activity: Activity of enemy tactical aviation is reported on the southeastern direction (previous). Possible Indian air strike on a Pakistani Air Force Base in Rawalpindi. Pakistan claims India launched "air-to-ground" missiles at multiple airbases. India claims a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases. New activity of enemy tactical aviation is reported on the northeastern direction. New activity of enemy tactical aviation is reported on the southeastern direction, with a threat of using aerial weapons against frontline oblasts. Pakistan has announced the temporary closure of its airspace. Pakistan claims striking Indian airbases at Pathankot and Udhampur. (Previous reporting, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, ТАСС, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ASTRA)
Naval Activity: No new specific naval engagements reported. A Ukrainian source shares a video claiming successful work by Ukrainian Black Sea Lions 37th Separate Marine Battalion drone pilots, suggesting continued maritime drone operations. (Previous reporting, Previous reporting)
Air Defense Activity: Air defense systems actively working over Islamabad, Pakistan. Pakistan claims interception and destruction of an Indian UAV over Rawalpindi and interception of Indian cruise missiles near Shorkot. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Victory Day Narratives: Extensive Russian information operations around Victory Day continue, including fireworks in Moscow and other cities, drone shows in Magadan Oblast, and auto rallies in Crimea (previous). Russian military bloggers are celebrating the holiday and highlighting perceived Ukrainian actions contradicting the claimed ceasefire. Russian sources are also sharing historical reflections on the significance of Victory Day. Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan attended the Victory Day Parade in Moscow (previous). Cultural events, including concerts for military personnel, are reported (previous). Russian sources are using historical footage to make political statements regarding Ukraine (previous). Maria Zakharova speaks about a song related to Victory Day in Vienna (previous). Russian Ministry of Defense states Russian forces are strictly observing a ceasefire since May 8th based on humanitarian considerations. Kadyrov_95 shares video of a religious gathering commemorating his father, linking it to service and protection from enemies. Russian military bloggers emphasize patriotism and historical narratives related to Victory Day. Alex Parker Returns shares video making a negative historical comparison between Zelenskyy and Hitler. TASS reports American director Oliver Stone attended a Victory Day reception in the Kremlin. Russian military bloggers are sharing videos promoting patriotism and emphasizing the importance of remembering the "Great feat of the Soviet people." TASS reports that Putin spent over 14 hours on May 9th in discussions with high-ranking foreign guests. TASS reports that Putin concluded a series of bilateral international meetings by receiving the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, in the Kremlin. TASS reports that the Russian Ambassador to the US, Alexander Darchiev, stated at a Victory Day reception that current and future generations should not allow Nazism to rise again, claiming it has already taken root in some countries. Details of the Putin-Fico meeting highlight Russia's diplomatic engagement around the holiday. Colonelcassad shares a video about alleged Nazi atrocities in Makeyevka during WWII, a significant historical narrative being promoted. Colonelcassad shares a photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel and equipment in the conflict zone around Victory Day, further reinforcing the narrative of ongoing operations. Reports highlight the presence of foreign leaders, including the President of the Republic of Srpska, Milorad Dodik, during Victory Day celebrations in Moscow, demonstrating Russia's efforts to consolidate relationships and promote a narrative of international support. Colonelcassad shares a video promoting AI-generated content related to the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War, indicating the utilization of advanced technology in Russian information operations. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a music video titled "Rely on the Motherland!" promoting patriotism and linking it to the ongoing conflict. ТАСС reports that the Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the UN organized a commemorative event at the UN headquarters in New York for the 80th anniversary of Victory. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion on the Orikhiv direction restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling. Colonelcassad shares a video with alleged testimony of mistreatment of Russian POWs by Ukrainian forces, framing it within the context of countering "Ukrainian neo-Nazis." (Previous reporting, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Kadyrov_95, Kadyrov_95, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, ТАСС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
International Efforts for Peace: Discussions regarding a 30-day ceasefire proposal are ongoing, with a Ukrainian source reporting on the differing perspectives of the West, Ukraine, and Russia on the matter (previous). Peskov reiterated that discussion of a 30-day ceasefire is impossible without considering "nuances," referencing a reported Ukrainian drone attack in Belgorod as an example of Ukraine not observing the ceasefire (previous). Former US President Donald Trump has reiterated his call for Russia and Ukraine to end the war, citing significant troop losses. Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó stated that European leaders are delaying peace talks out of fear of accountability. The EU has joined Ukraine and international partners, including the US, in calling for a full, unconditional ceasefire for at least 30 days. TASS reports Peskov stated that Ukraine wants to avoid negotiations. TASS reports Peskov stated that a temporary truce must include a cessation of arms supplies to Ukraine. TASS reports Peskov stated Russia hopes US mediation will help convince Kyiv to be more flexible. Colonelcassad reports European Parliamentarians are calling for dialogue with Russia due to the risk of nuclear war. (Previous reporting, Previous reporting, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad)
Russia-Brazil Relations: The topic of Ukraine was raised during Putin's meeting with Brazilian President Lula da Silva (previous). (Previous reporting)
Russia-Slovakia Relations: Putin valued Slovak Prime Minister Fico's decision to attend Victory Day celebrations in Moscow, and Fico thanked Putin for his hospitality (previous). Fico stated that anti-Russian sanctions are not working and harm the EU, and that Slovakia is ready to use its veto on prohibiting energy supplies from Russia to Europe (previous). He also stated he does not support the idea of a new Iron Curtain in Europe (previous). Discussions between Putin and Fico have concluded (previous). Fico called attempts by some European countries to hinder his visit to Russia a "child's joke." Latest reports provide further details on the Putin-Fico meeting, emphasizing Fico's stance on sanctions and his promise to veto an EU ban on Russian energy imports. (Previous reporting, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Internal Ukrainian Politics: Bail has been posted for Roman Nasirov, the former head of the State Fiscal Service of Ukraine, and he has been released from custody (previous). Vice-Prime Minister Stefanishyna discussed Ukraine's potential timeline for EU accession (previous). Ukrainian source raises concerns about Hungarian intelligence activities focused on Ukraine, citing a Hungarian journalist's claims. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show forced mobilization in Kharkiv, an information operation focused on internal Ukrainian issues. Colonelcassad shares a video of a captured Ukrainian servicewoman, which is being used for propaganda against Ukraine. (Previous reporting, Previous reporting, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Internal Russian Politics: Peskov commented on the discussion of a 30-day ceasefire (previous). The Russian Ministry of Defense released daily figures on claimed Ukrainian losses (previous). Celebratory events for Victory Day are widely reported across Russia (previous). Russian Ministry of Defense states Russian forces are strictly observing a ceasefire since May 8th based on humanitarian considerations, a claim contradicted by reports of fighting. Kadyrov_95 shares video of a religious gathering commemorating his father. TASS reports American director Oliver Stone attended a Victory Day reception in the Kremlin. TASS reports that Putin spent over 14 hours on May 9th in discussions with high-ranking foreign guests. TASS reports that Putin concluded a series of bilateral international meetings by receiving the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, in the Kremlin. TASS reports that the Russian Ambassador to the US, Alexander Darchiev, stated at a Victory Day reception that current and future generations should not allow Nazism to rise again, claiming it has already taken root in some countries. Details of the Putin-Fico meeting are reported. Colonelcassad shares a video about alleged Nazi atrocities in Makeyevka during WWII, reflecting a specific information operation focus. Colonelcassad shares a photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel and equipment around Victory Day, further reinforcing the narrative of ongoing operations. Reports highlight the presence of foreign leaders, including the President of the Republic of Srpska, Milorad Dodik, during Victory Day celebrations in Moscow, demonstrating Russia's efforts to consolidate relationships. Colonelcassad shares a video promoting AI-generated content related to the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War, indicating the utilization of advanced technology in Russian information operations. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a music video titled "Rely on the Motherland!" as part of Victory Day commemorations. ТАСС reports that the Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the UN organized a commemorative event at the UN headquarters in New York for the 80th anniversary of Victory. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion on the Orikhiv direction restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling. Colonelcassad shares a video with alleged testimony of mistreatment of Russian POWs, framing it within the context of countering "Ukrainian neo-Nazis" and promoting a "International Public Tribunal." TASS reports on scammers using the theme of polyclinics to steal money. TASS reports Peskov stated that Ukraine wants to avoid negotiations. TASS reports Peskov stated that a temporary truce must include a cessation of arms supplies to Ukraine. TASS reports Peskov stated Russia hopes US mediation will help convince Kyiv to be more flexible. (Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, Kadyrov_95, Kadyrov_95, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС)
Iran-Russia Relations: Reuters sources report Iran is preparing to supply launch systems for Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia in the near future. (Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Russia-Uzbekistan Relations: TASS reports that Putin concluded a series of bilateral international meetings by receiving the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, in the Kremlin. (ТАСС, ТАСС)
US-China Relations: Donald Trump comments on potential for a fair trade deal. (ТАСС)
India-Pakistan Conflict: Escalation reported with alleged strikes on military bases and explosions in cities. Conflicting claims regarding types of missiles used and success of strikes. India claims a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases. Pakistan has announced the temporary closure of its airspace. Pakistan has initiated a large-scale military operation ("Bunyan un Marsoos") against India. Pakistan has temporarily closed its airspace until 12:00 local time (10:00 Kyiv time). India previously halted flights at 32 airports on its western border with Pakistan. Pakistan claims striking Indian airbases at Pathankot and Udhampur, as well as a BrahMos missile storage depot in Beas. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ASTRA)
European Leaders Visit to Kyiv: TASS reports German Chancellor Merz, French President Macron, and UK Prime Minister Starmer have traveled to Kyiv. РБК-Україна confirms and expands this, reporting French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk are in Kyiv. (ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Russia-US Relations: Russian Ambassador to US states reality requires restoration of normal relations and shared responsibility for global stability and security. Former US President Donald Trump has reiterated his call for Russia and Ukraine to end the war. The EU has joined the US in calling for a 30-day ceasefire. TASS reports Peskov stated Russia hopes US mediation will help convince Kyiv to be more flexible. (ТАСС, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС)
Poland-Ukraine Relations: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is in Kyiv as part of a high-level European delegation. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Hungary-EU Relations: Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó stated that European leaders are delaying peace talks in Ukraine out of fear of being held accountable for their incorrect strategy. (ТАСС, ТАСС)
European Parliament: Colonelcassad reports that a number of moderate European Parliamentarians are calling for dialogue with Russia due to the risk of nuclear war. (Colonelcassad)

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security: Peskov stated that the drone attack on the administration building in Belgorod shows how Ukraine observes the ceasefire (previous). Firework display in Reni, Odesa Oblast attributed to "partisans" by Russian sources, indicates potential internal activities or information operations (previous). Colonelcassad shares video from the Russian "Anvar" special detachment claiming the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points in Chernihiv Oblast, suggesting ongoing efforts to counter Ukrainian drone activities near the border. Airspace closed over Kapustin Yar test site, suggesting heightened security measures or planned military activity. TASS reports on scammers using the theme of polyclinics to steal money through remote access applications. (Previous reporting, Два майора, Два майора, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС)
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian military blogger claims VDV fighters are engaging and destroying Ukrainian infantry and equipment near Tyotkino. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for equipment for fighters on the Kursk front due to "enemy activation." Archived footage claiming "jewelry precision" destruction of Ukrainian positions in Kharkiv Oblast by Russian UAVs is shared (previous). The Russian Ministry of Defense released daily figures on claimed Ukrainian losses (previous). Russian Ministry of Defense states Russian forces are strictly observing a ceasefire since May 8th based on humanitarian considerations, a claim contradicted by reports of fighting. Colonelcassad shares video from the Russian "Anvar" special detachment claiming the destruction of Ukrainian forces and assets in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, including an artillery piece, strongpoints, and UAV control points. Airspace closed over Kapustin Yar test site, suggesting planned missile testing or activity, including likely ballistic missile tests. Potential future acquisition of Fath-360 missile launch systems from Iran. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion on the Orikhiv direction restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling. Promoting historical narratives of alleged atrocities to reinforce political messaging. Engaged in military exchanges with India as reported by Pakistan. India claims a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases. Colonelcassad shares a photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel and equipment in the conflict zone, providing visual evidence of Russian forces. New activity of tactical aviation and launches of KABs towards Sumy Oblast are reported. New activity of tactical aviation is reported on the southeastern direction, with a threat of using aerial weapons. Colonelcassad shares a video with alleged testimony of mistreatment of Russian POWs, a tactic aimed at demonizing Ukrainian forces and justifying Russian actions. (Previous reporting, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Оперативный ЗСУ, Оперативный ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Civilian Casualties: ASTRA reports that three people have died and seven have been injured in Russian shellings of Sumy Oblast on May 8th and 9th (previous). RBC-Ukraine reports three civilian deaths and seven injured in Sumy Oblast over May 8th and 9th due to Russian shelling. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show forced mobilization in Kharkiv, which could be interpreted as highlighting a perceived negative humanitarian impact on Ukrainian civilians. Colonelcassad shares a video with alleged testimony of mistreatment of Russian POWs, highlighting potential humanitarian concerns from the Russian perspective, though framed within a propaganda context. (Previous reporting, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Information Control and Censorship: Extensive information campaigning around Victory Day is evident. Alex Parker Returns shares a video making a negative historical comparison between Zelenskyy and Hitler, an example of targeted negative information operations. Russian military bloggers are sharing videos promoting patriotism and emphasizing the importance of remembering the "Great feat of the Soviet people." TASS reports that the Russian Ambassador to the US, Alexander Darchiev, stated at a Victory Day reception that current and future generations should not allow Nazism to rise again, claiming it has already taken root in some countries. Colonelcassad shares a video about alleged Nazi atrocities in Makeyevka during WWII, a strong example of utilizing historical narratives for political messaging. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show forced mobilization in Kharkiv, an example of utilizing negative information about Ukraine. Colonelcassad shares a photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel and equipment around Victory Day, contributing to information control and shaping narratives. Colonelcassad shares a video promoting AI-generated content related to the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War, indicating the utilization of advanced technology in Russian information operations. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a music video titled "Rely on the Motherland!" promoting patriotism and linking it to the ongoing conflict. ТАСС reports that the Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the UN organized a commemorative event at the UN headquarters in New York for the 80th anniversary of Victory. Colonelcassad shares a video of a captured Ukrainian servicewoman, used for propaganda to demoralize Ukrainian forces. Colonelcassad shares a video with alleged testimony of mistreatment of Russian POWs, a clear information operation to control the narrative surrounding POW treatment and demonize the enemy. TASS reports on scammers using the theme of polyclinics, indicating efforts to control information about internal issues and promote security awareness. (Previous reporting, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ТАСС)
Military Commemoration and Information Operations: Celebratory events for Victory Day are widely reported, including fireworks, drone shows, and auto rallies (previous). Cultural events, such as concerts for military personnel, are being held (previous). Russian sources are sharing historical reflections and using historical footage for political messaging (previous). Peaceful Victory Day celebrations with fireworks and drone shows are reported in various Russian locations (previous). Russian military bloggers emphasize patriotism and historical narratives related to Victory Day. TASS reports American director Oliver Stone attended a Victory Day reception in the Kremlin. Russian military bloggers are sharing videos promoting patriotism and emphasizing the importance of remembering the "Great feat of the Soviet people." Colonelcassad shares a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion on the Orikhiv direction restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling. Colonelcassad shares a video about alleged Nazi atrocities in Makeyevka during WWII, a significant information operation focus around historical narratives. Colonelcassad shares a photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel and equipment around Victory Day, actively participating in information operations. Reports highlight the presence of foreign leaders, including the President of the Republic of Srpska, Milorad Dodik, during Victory Day celebrations in Moscow, demonstrating Russia's efforts to utilize the holiday for consolidating relationships and promoting a narrative of international support. Colonelcassad shares a video promoting AI-generated content related to the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War, indicating the utilization of advanced technology in Russian information operations. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a music video titled "Rely on the Motherland!" promoting patriotism and linking it to the ongoing conflict. ТАСС reports that the Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the UN organized a commemorative event at the UN headquarters in New York for the 80th anniversary of Victory. Colonelcassad shares a video of a captured Ukrainian servicewoman as part of Victory Day related information operations. Colonelcassad shares a video with alleged testimony of mistreatment of Russian POWs, framing it as part of countering "Ukrainian neo-Nazis" and linking it to a "International Public Tribunal," utilizing the holiday theme for propaganda. (Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, ТАСС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Public Support for the Military: Auto rallies and fundraising efforts indicate continued public support. Cultural events for military personnel aim to strengthen this support. Russian military bloggers continue fundraising for equipment. Kadyrov_95 shares video of a religious gathering with strong patriotic and military undertones. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling, highlighting their dedication. Colonelcassad shares a photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel in the conflict zone, likely intended to bolster public support. Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny shares a music video titled "Rely on the Motherland!" promoting patriotism and linking it to the ongoing conflict. (Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Kadyrov_95, Kadyrov_95, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Humanitarian Situation: ASTRA reports civilian casualties and damage to residential and other buildings in Sumy Oblast due to Russian shellings (previous). A Ukrainian military blogger shares a photo captioned "ceasefire," implying continued impacts on civilians (previous). Confirmed civilian casualties in Sumy Oblast due to Russian shelling by RBC-Ukraine. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show forced mobilization in Kharkiv, which could be interpreted as highlighting a perceived negative humanitarian impact on Ukrainian civilians. Colonelcassad shares a video with alleged testimony of mistreatment of Russian POWs, highlighting potential humanitarian concerns from the Russian perspective, though framed within a propaganda context. (Previous reporting, Previous reporting, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Military Support: Russian military bloggers are fundraising for equipment for fighters on the Kursk front. A Ukrainian military blogger is conducting a fundraising campaign for equipment for various brigades (previous). A Russian military blogger is conducting a collection for marine infantrymen on the Kherson direction (previous). Russian military bloggers continue fundraising for equipment. (Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Cultural Support: Artists from Buryatia are conducting concerts for participants of the "SMO" in hospitals and training grounds, providing gifts and boosting morale (previous). Colonelcassad shares a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling. Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny shares a music video titled "Rely on the Motherland!" as part of Victory Day commemorations. (Previous reporting, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Russia: Continues offensive operations, utilizing artillery, guided bombs, and drones. Engaging Ukrainian forces in border regions with VDV units and special detachments. Utilizing extensive information operations, particularly around Victory Day and utilizing captured personnel for propaganda. Conducting shellings on Ukrainian border regions, resulting in civilian casualties despite claims of a ceasefire. Reports of advances near Romanivka, Oleksandropil, and Nova Poltavka. Russian Ministry of Defense states Russian forces are strictly observing a ceasefire since May 8th based on humanitarian considerations, a claim contradicted by reports of fighting. Airspace closed over Kapustin Yar test site, suggesting planned missile testing or activity, including likely ballistic missile tests. Potential future acquisition of Fath-360 missile launch systems from Iran. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion on the Orikhiv direction restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling. Promoting historical narratives of alleged atrocities to reinforce political messaging. Engaged in military exchanges with India as reported by Pakistan. India claims a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases. Colonelcassad shares a photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel and equipment in the conflict zone, providing visual evidence of Russian forces. New activity of tactical aviation and launches of KABs towards Sumy Oblast are reported. New activity of tactical aviation is reported on the southeastern direction, with a threat of using aerial weapons. Colonelcassad shares a video with alleged testimony of mistreatment of Russian POWs, a tactic aimed at demonizing Ukrainian forces and justifying Russian actions. (Previous reporting, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Оперативный ЗСУ, Оперативный ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Ukraine: Continuing defensive and limited offensive operations, including reported cross-border activity. Utilizing drones for engagements, including maritime drone operations. Seeking international support and military aid. Countering Russian information operations. Experiencing shelling of border regions resulting in civilian casualties. Ukrainian sources raise concerns about Hungarian intelligence activities. Engaged in potential military exchanges with Pakistan as reported by India. Hosting high-level European leaders in Kyiv. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show forced mobilization in Kharkiv, an alleged tactic being employed by Ukraine. Joining the EU and international partners, including the US, in calling for a 30-day ceasefire. (Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Pakistan: Engaged in escalating conflict with India. Has announced the start of a large-scale military operation against India. Temporarily closed its airspace. Claims striking Indian airbases and a BrahMos missile storage depot. (ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ASTRA)
India: Engaged in escalating conflict with Pakistan. Previously halted flights at numerous airports on its western border with Pakistan. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The continued fighting and civilian casualties in Sumy Oblast, as reported by RBC-Ukraine, directly contradict Russian claims of a ceasefire and underscore the ongoing human cost of the conflict and the discrepancy between stated intentions and reality. The new launches of KABs towards Sumy Oblast further reinforce this point.
The detection of fast-moving targets and the announcement of missile danger in southern Ukraine, along with reported activity of tactical aviation and new KAB launches towards Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts, highlight the continued threat of Russian aerial and missile strikes despite Victory Day commemorations. The new report of tactical aviation activity and KAB launches on the northeastern direction specifically targeting Sumy Oblast further confirms this persistent threat. The renewed activity of tactical aviation on the southeastern direction, with a threat of using aerial weapons, indicates the persistent and widespread nature of Russian aerial threats across frontline areas.
Peskov's repeated emphasis on "nuances" regarding a 30-day ceasefire and his use of the Belgorod drone attack as justification for ongoing military action reinforce the view that Russia is utilizing the ceasefire discussion for informational purposes and is unlikely to agree to a genuine, unconditional halt to hostilities under current conditions (previous). The Russian Ministry of Defense's statement about strictly observing a ceasefire while reports of fighting persist further highlights this discrepancy in narratives. The EU's formal call for a 30-day ceasefire, joining Ukraine and the US, increases international pressure on Russia and clearly delineates the international position on a potential de-escalation. Peskov's statements about Ukraine wanting to avoid negotiations and the condition of ceasing arms supplies for a truce further solidify Russia's position and place the onus for diplomatic progress on Ukraine and its Western partners. His comment about hoping for US mediation to make Kyiv "more flexible" indicates Russia's continued interest in engaging with the US on the issue and a desire for the US to exert influence on Ukraine.
The fundraising efforts by Russian military bloggers for equipment for the Kursk front due to "enemy activation" indicate ongoing Ukrainian pressure in this area and potential logistical needs or challenges for Russian forces.
The statements by Slovak Prime Prime Minister Fico regarding sanctions and a new Iron Curtain indicate differing perspectives within the EU on relations with Russia and highlight potential areas of friction within the bloc regarding future policy towards Moscow (previous). His stance on energy supplies from Russia, and his promise to use Slovakia's veto power to block an EU ban, is particularly notable and strengthens Russia's position regarding energy exports to the EU. The conclusion of his talks with Putin suggests these discussions have reached a certain point (previous). Fico's labeling of attempts to hinder his visit as a "child's joke" further underscores his stance and potential alignment with Russia on certain issues.
The release of Roman Nasirov on bail is an internal Ukrainian political development that could have implications for anti-corruption efforts and public perception (previous).
Vice-Prime Minister Stefanishyna's discussion of Ukraine's potential EU accession timeline underscores Ukraine's continued strategic orientation towards European integration and the ongoing efforts to meet the required criteria, despite the ongoing conflict (previous).
The firework display in Reni, Odesa Oblast, attributed to "partisans" by Russian sources, could represent a low-level internal security concern for Ukraine or be an element of Russian information operations to suggest internal dissent or activity.
The reported Russian advances near Romanivka, Oleksandropil, and Nova Poltavka, confirmed by DeepState, indicate localized but ongoing ground pressure from Russian forces in these areas.
Concerns raised by Ukrainian sources regarding Hungarian intelligence activities focused on Ukraine introduce a potential new layer of complexity in Ukraine's international relationships and underscore the importance of counter-intelligence within the NATO alliance.
The closure of airspace over the Kapustin Yar test site and reports of potential Iranian supply of missile launch systems to Russia suggest planned military activity and potential future escalations in Russia's missile capabilities. The timing of the airspace closure over Kapustin Yar could be indicative of upcoming missile tests or deployments, likely ballistic missile tests based on Russian military blogger reports.
The continued and varied Russian information operations around Victory Day aim to reinforce domestic support, project an image of strength and historical legitimacy, and influence international perceptions, including through engaging figures like Oliver Stone and promoting specific historical narratives. The efforts to link the current conflict to the "Great feat of the Soviet people" are particularly notable in these narratives. The statements by the Russian Ambassador to the US regarding Nazism are directed at an international audience to promote the Russian narrative. Colonelcassad's video of monument restoration on the front line is another example of linking the current conflict to historical narratives and promoting military dedication. The video detailing alleged Nazi atrocities in Makeyevka is a potent example of utilizing historical narratives to demonize the enemy. Colonelcassad's photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel and equipment around Victory Day actively contributes to the narrative of ongoing military efforts and aims to influence perceptions. Reports highlight the presence of foreign leaders, including the President of the Republic of Srpska, Milorad Dodik, during Victory Day celebrations in Moscow, demonstrating Russia's efforts to utilize the holiday for consolidating relationships and promoting a narrative of international support. Colonelcassad shares a video promoting AI-generated content related to the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War, indicating the utilization of advanced technology in Russian information operations. Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny shares a music video titled "Rely on the Motherland!" promoting patriotism and linking it to the ongoing conflict. ТАСС reports that the Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the UN organized a commemorative event at the UN headquarters in New York for the 80th anniversary of Victory. Colonelcassad's dissemination of information and video about a captured Ukrainian servicewoman is a clear strategic effort to utilize propaganda and dehumanize the opposing forces, potentially impacting morale. Colonelcassad's sharing of alleged testimony of mistreatment of Russian POWs is a significant information operation aimed at demonizing Ukrainian forces, garnering domestic support by portraying Russians as victims, and potentially influencing international perceptions on prisoner treatment.
Putin's extensive diplomatic engagements on Victory Day underscore Russia's efforts to maintain and strengthen international relationships and garner support, particularly with countries like Uzbekistan and Slovakia.
The reported escalation between India and Pakistan, with alleged strikes and explosions, highlights the potential for regional conflicts to impact the broader geopolitical landscape, potentially drawing attention and resources away from the conflict in Ukraine or creating new areas of international tension. The conflicting claims surrounding these strikes indicate a dynamic and potentially unpredictable situation in that region. India's claim of a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases further confirms the level of escalation. Pakistan's temporary closure of its airspace is a direct operational consequence of this escalation, indicating a concrete impact on regional movement and security. The announcement by Pakistan of a large-scale military operation against India represents a significant intensification of this regional conflict, raising the potential for wider and more severe consequences. Pakistan's claims of striking Indian airbases and a missile depot, while needing verification, suggest targets with significant military implications and highlight the potential for substantial damage and disruption.
The reported visit of German, French, and UK leaders to Kyiv signals continued strong political support for Ukraine from key European powers and likely involves discussions on further aid and strategic coordination. The confirmed presence of French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Kyiv signifies a high-level and coordinated show of support for Ukraine.
The statement from the Russian Ambassador to the US about restoring relations, while potentially a diplomatic overture, comes amidst continued conflict and reflects the complex and strained nature of Russia-US relations. Former US President Donald Trump's reiteration of his call for an end to the war adds another dimension to the US political landscape concerning the conflict. The EU's formal call for a ceasefire, joining the US, indicates a coordinated international diplomatic effort. Peskov's statement about hoping for US mediation to make Kyiv "more flexible" underscores Russia's view of the US's potential influence and role in diplomatic efforts.
Poland-Ukraine Relations: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is in Kyiv as part of a high-level European delegation. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Hungary-EU Relations: Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó's statement regarding European leaders delaying peace talks out of fear of accountability introduces a critical perspective from within the EU and highlights potential internal disagreements regarding the conflict's resolution. (ТАСС, ТАСС)
Internal Russian Issue - Scammer Activity: The report on scammers in Russia using the theme of polyclinics to steal money highlights ongoing internal vulnerabilities and criminal activity within Russia. While not directly related to the conflict, it contributes to the overall picture of the internal environment. (ТАСС)
European Parliamentarians Calling for Dialogue: Colonelcassad's report about European Parliamentarians calling for dialogue with Russia due to the risk of nuclear war highlights a divergence of opinion within the European Parliament and potentially indicates a growing concern among some European politicians about the trajectory of relations with Russia and the potential for escalation. This suggests that while the dominant narrative in the EU remains one of support for Ukraine and pressure on Russia, there are voices advocating for a different approach, likely driven by concerns about the strategic consequences of prolonged confrontation. (Colonelcassad)

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report