Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 9, 2025, 23:40 UTC)
Updated Situation
The operational environment continues to be marked by ongoing ground combat and military exchanges between India and Pakistan. Russian claims of a ceasefire around Victory Day remain contradicted by evidence of continued fighting. The Kursk border region is still active. Russian aerial and drone activity persists across Ukraine. Russian forces continue to report advances in Donetsk Oblast, corroborated by DeepState. Information operations surrounding Victory Day are extensive. The escalation between India and Pakistan remains a significant new development with conflicting reports on alleged strikes. The Putin-Fico meeting highlighted Slovakia's opposition to EU sanctions on Russian energy. A high-level visit by European leaders to Kyiv underscores continued international support for Ukraine.
New information further details diplomatic developments, information operations, and international perspectives:
Trump's Call for an End to the War: РБК-Україна reports that former US President Donald Trump has reiterated his call for Russia and Ukraine to end the war, citing significant troop losses on both sides and deeming it a "senseless war." This introduces a potential shift in a prominent US political figure's public stance on the conflict's resolution and could influence international discussions around peace. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Victory Day Narratives and Support for Russia: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on the President of the Republic of Srpska, Milorad Dodik, speaking at a youth event in Moscow during Victory Day celebrations. Dodik emphasized the importance of remembering the Soviet victory in WWII and supporting Russia, highlighting the presence of Russia's "friends" in Moscow for the holiday. This demonstrates Russia's efforts to utilize Victory Day for consolidating relationships and promoting a narrative of international support. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Russian AI-Generated Victory Day Content: Colonelcassad shares a video promoting AI-generated content related to the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War, produced by a Russian IT company. This indicates Russia's utilization of advanced technology in its information operations around the holiday, further reinforcing historical narratives. (Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Hungarian Perspective on Peace Talks: ТАСС reports that Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó stated in an interview that European leaders are delaying peace talks in Ukraine out of fear of being held accountable for their incorrect strategy. This offers a distinct perspective from within the EU regarding the motivations and dynamics surrounding potential peace negotiations. (ТАСС, ТАСС)
Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)
Donetsk Oblast (Romanivka, Oleksandropil, Nova Poltavka, Makeyevka): Russian forces have advanced near Romanivka, Oleksandropil, and Nova Poltavka according to DeepState. Launches of KABs are detected towards Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad shares a video about alleged Nazi atrocities in Makeyevka during WWII, a significant information operation focus. Colonelcassad shares a photo selection titled "Z - in the zone of the Special Military Operation," which likely includes images from the Donetsk direction. (DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Sumy Oblast (Bunyakino, Sukhodol, Novovasilievka, Bachevsk): Launches of KABs are detected towards Sumy Oblast. Rocket danger is announced and subsequently cleared for Sumy Oblast. RBC-Ukraine reports three civilian deaths and seven injured in Sumy Oblast over May 8th and 9th due to Russian shelling. Colonelcassad shares video from the Russian "Anvar" special detachment claiming the destruction of Ukrainian forces and assets in settlements in Sumy Oblast (Bunyakino, Sukhodol, Novovasilievka, Bachevsk). (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Chernihiv Oblast (Klyusy, Gorsk): Colonelcassad shares video from the Russian "Anvar" special detachment claiming the destruction of Ukrainian forces and assets in settlements in Chernihiv Oblast (Klyusy, Gorsk), specifically targeting UAV control points. (Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Kursk Border Region (including Tetkino): Continued active engagement with reported Ukrainian attempts at incursions and Russian counter-efforts. Russian military bloggers report VDV fighters are engaging and destroying Ukrainian infantry and equipment near Tyotkino. Russian sources are also fundraising for equipment for fighters on the Kursk front due to "enemy activation." (Previous reporting, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Odesa Oblast (Reni): Firework display reported in Reni, attributed to "partisans" by Russian sources, which caused significant reaction in the Ukrainian internet segment. (Два майора, Два майора)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Missile danger is announced for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and subsequently cleared. (Previous reporting, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Fast-moving targets from southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast are detected heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (Previous reporting)
Kapustin Yar Test Site (Astrakhan and Volgograd/Saratov Oblasts, Russia): Airspace closed from May 12th 06:00 to May 13th 06:00 (monitoring) and May 12th 06:00 to May 13th 04:00 UTC (Russian military bloggers), suggesting planned missile testing or activity, potentially involving "Oreshnik" type missiles and likely ballistic missile tests. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Orikhiv Direction: Colonelcassad shares a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling. (Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Rawalpindi, Pakistan: Powerful explosion reported, believed to be an Indian strike on Nur Khan Air Force Base. Fire reported. Pakistan claims interception and destruction of an Indian UAV. Clash Report suggests a Pakistani C-130 may have been hit. India claims a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases, including Nur Khan. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС)
Islamabad, Pakistan: Air defense systems actively working over the capital. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Amritsar, India: Four explosions reported. Pakistan claims five ballistic missiles hit Amritsar. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Adampur, India: Pakistan claims one ballistic missile hit Adampur. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Rafiki Airbase (near Shorkot, Jang district, Pakistan): Pakistan claims air defense intercepted Indian cruise missiles targeting this airbase, with at least one interception. India claims a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases, including this one. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС)
Murid Airbase, Pakistan: Pakistan claims India launched "air-to-ground" missiles at this airbase, stating their facilities are safe. India claims a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases, including this one. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС)
Shorkot Airbase, Pakistan: Pakistan claims India launched "air-to-ground" missiles at this airbase, stating their facilities are safe. Pakistan claims air defense intercepted Indian cruise missiles targeting this airbase, with at least one interception. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Kyiv: French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk are in Kyiv. (ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Moscow:Reports indicate the presence of foreign leaders, including the President of the Republic of Srpska, Milorad Dodik, during Victory Day celebrations.(Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):
Drone Activity: A drone show was held in Magadan Oblast, Russia, for Victory Day. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for drones and signal amplifiers for the Kursk front. A Ukrainian source shares a video claiming successful work by Ukrainian Black Sea Lions 37th Separate Marine Battalion drone pilots (previous). Archived footage claiming "jewelry precision" destruction of Ukrainian positions in Kharkiv Oblast by Russian UAVs is shared (previous). Peaceful Victory Day drone shows reported in Ola, Magadan Oblast. Colonelcassad shares video from the Russian "Anvar" special detachment claiming the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points in Chernihiv Oblast. Pakistan claims an Indian UAV was intercepted and destroyed over Rawalpindi. (Previous reporting, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Repeated launches of KABs towards Sumy Oblast are reported (previous). KAB launches detected towards Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. (Previous reporting, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Missile Activity: Missile danger is announced for Zaporizhzhia Oblast (previous). Fast-moving targets from southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast are detected heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (previous). Missile danger is announced for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (previous). Airspace closed over Kapustin Yar test site from May 12th-13th, suggesting planned missile activity, potentially involving "Oreshnik" type missiles and likely ballistic missile tests. Reuters sources report Iran is preparing to supply Fath-360 missile launch systems to Russia. Rocket danger is announced and subsequently cleared for Sumy Oblast. India and Pakistan report exchanges involving ballistic and cruise missiles, with India claiming a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases. (Previous reporting, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС)
Aviation Activity: Activity of enemy tactical aviation is reported on the southeastern direction (previous). Possible Indian air strike on a Pakistani Air Force Base in Rawalpindi. Pakistan claims India launched "air-to-ground" missiles at multiple airbases. India claims a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases. (Previous reporting, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС)
Naval Activity: No new specific naval engagements reported. A Ukrainian source shares a video claiming successful work by Ukrainian Black Sea Lions 37th Separate Marine Battalion drone pilots, suggesting continued maritime drone operations. (Previous reporting, Previous reporting)
Air Defense Activity: Air defense systems actively working over Islamabad, Pakistan. Pakistan claims interception and destruction of an Indian UAV over Rawalpindi and interception of Indian cruise missiles near Shorkot. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):
Victory Day Narratives: Extensive Russian information operations around Victory Day continue, including fireworks in Moscow and other cities, drone shows in Magadan Oblast, and auto rallies in Crimea (previous). Russian military bloggers are celebrating the holiday and highlighting perceived Ukrainian actions contradicting the claimed ceasefire. Russian sources are also sharing historical reflections on the significance of Victory Day. Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan attended the Victory Day Parade in Moscow (previous). Cultural events, including concerts for military personnel, are reported (previous). Russian sources are using historical footage to make political statements regarding Ukraine (previous). Maria Zakharova speaks about a song related to Victory Day in Vienna (previous). Russian Ministry of Defense states Russian forces are strictly observing a ceasefire since May 8th based on humanitarian considerations. Kadyrov_95 shares video of a religious gathering commemorating his father, linking it to service and protection from enemies. Russian military bloggers emphasize patriotism and historical narratives related to Victory Day. Alex Parker Returns shares video making a negative historical comparison between Zelenskyy and Hitler. TASS reports American director Oliver Stone attended a Victory Day reception in the Kremlin. Russian military bloggers are sharing videos promoting patriotism and emphasizing the importance of remembering the "Great feat of the Soviet people." TASS reports that Putin spent over 14 hours on May 9th in discussions with high-ranking foreign guests. TASS reports that Putin concluded a series of bilateral international meetings by receiving the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, in the Kremlin. TASS reports that the Russian Ambassador to the US, Alexander Darchiev, stated at a Victory Day reception that current and future generations should not allow Nazism to rise again, claiming it has already taken root in some countries. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion on the Orikhiv direction restored a monument to the heroes of the Great Patriotic War directly on the front line during shelling. Details of the Putin-Fico meeting highlight Russia's diplomatic engagement around the holiday. Colonelcassad shares a video about alleged Nazi atrocities in Makeyevka during WWII, a significant historical narrative being promoted. Colonelcassad shares a photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel and equipment in the conflict zone around Victory Day, further reinforcing the narrative of ongoing operations. Reports highlight the presence of foreign leaders, including the President of the Republic of Srpska, Milorad Dodik, during Victory Day celebrations in Moscow, demonstrating Russia's efforts to consolidate relationships and promote a narrative of international support.Colonelcassad shares a video promoting AI-generated content related to the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War, indicating the utilization of advanced technology in Russian information operations.(Previous reporting, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Kadyrov_95, Kadyrov_95, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, ТАСС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
International Efforts for Peace: Discussions regarding a 30-day ceasefire proposal are ongoing, with a Ukrainian source reporting on the differing perspectives of the West, Ukraine, and Russia on the matter (previous). Peskov reiterated that discussion of a 30-day ceasefire is impossible without considering "nuances," referencing a reported Ukrainian drone attack in Belgorod as an example of Ukraine not observing the ceasefire (previous). Former US President Donald Trump has reiterated his call for Russia and Ukraine to end the war, citing significant troop losses.Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó stated that European leaders are delaying peace talks out of fear of accountability.(Previous reporting, Previous reporting, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, ТАСС)
Russia-Brazil Relations: The topic of Ukraine was raised during Putin's meeting with Brazilian President Lula da Silva (previous). (Previous reporting)
Russia-Slovakia Relations: Putin valued Slovak Prime Minister Fico's decision to attend Victory Day celebrations in Moscow, and Fico thanked Putin for his hospitality (previous). Fico stated that anti-Russian sanctions are not working and harm the EU, and that Slovakia is ready to use its veto on prohibiting energy supplies from Russia to Europe (previous). He also stated he does not support the idea of a new Iron Curtain in Europe (previous). Discussions between Putin and Fico have concluded (previous). Fico called attempts by some European countries to hinder his visit to Russia a "child's joke." Latest reports provide further details on the Putin-Fico meeting, emphasizing Fico's stance on sanctions and his promise to veto an EU ban on Russian energy imports. (Previous reporting, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Internal Ukrainian Politics: Bail has been posted for Roman Nasirov, the former head of the State Fiscal Service of Ukraine, and he has been released from custody (previous). Vice-Prime Minister Stefanishyna discussed Ukraine's potential timeline for EU accession (previous). Ukrainian source raises concerns about Hungarian intelligence activities focused on Ukraine, citing a Hungarian journalist's claims. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show forced mobilization in Kharkiv, an information operation focused on internal Ukrainian issues. (Previous reporting, Previous reporting, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Internal Russian Politics: Peskov commented on the discussion of a 30-day ceasefire (previous). The Russian Ministry of Defense released daily figures on claimed Ukrainian losses (previous). Celebratory events for Victory Day are widely reported across Russia (previous). Russian Ministry of Defense states Russian forces are strictly observing a ceasefire since May 8th based on humanitarian considerations. Kadyrov_95 shares video of a religious gathering commemorating his father. TASS reports American director Oliver Stone attended a Victory Day reception in the Kremlin. TASS reports that Putin spent over 14 hours on May 9th in discussions with high-ranking foreign guests. TASS reports that Putin concluded a series of bilateral international meetings by receiving the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, in the Kremlin. TASS reports that the Russian Ambassador to the US, Alexander Darchiev, stated at a Victory Day reception that current and future generations should not allow Nazism to rise again, claiming it has already taken root in some countries. Details of the Putin-Fico meeting are reported. Colonelcassad shares a video about alleged Nazi atrocities in Makeyevka during WWII, reflecting a specific information operation focus. Colonelcassad shares a photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel and equipment around Victory Day, further reinforcing the narrative of ongoing operations. Reports highlight the presence of foreign leaders, including the President of the Republic of Srpska, Milorad Dodik, during Victory Day celebrations in Moscow, demonstrating Russia's efforts to consolidate relationships.Colonelcassad shares a video promoting AI-generated content related to the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War, indicating the utilization of advanced technology in Russian information operations.(Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, Kadyrov_95, Kadyrov_95, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Iran-Russia Relations: Reuters sources report Iran is preparing to supply launch systems for Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia in the near future. (Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Russia-Uzbekistan Relations: TASS reports that Putin concluded a series of bilateral international meetings by receiving the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, in the Kremlin. (ТАСС, ТАСС)
US-China Relations: Donald Trump comments on potential for a fair trade deal. (ТАСС)
India-Pakistan Conflict: Escalation reported with alleged strikes on military bases and explosions in cities. Conflicting claims regarding types of missiles used and success of strikes. India claims a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС)
European Leaders Visit to Kyiv: TASS reports German Chancellor Merz, French President Macron, and UK Prime Minister Starmer have traveled to Kyiv. РБК-Україна confirms and expands this, reporting French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk are in Kyiv. (ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Russia-US Relations: Russian Ambassador to US states reality requires restoration of normal relations and shared responsibility for global stability and security. Donald Trump has reiterated his call for Russia and Ukraine to end the war.(ТАСС, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Poland-Ukraine Relations: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is in Kyiv as part of a high-level European delegation. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Hungary-EU Relations:Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó stated that European leaders are delaying peace talks in Ukraine out of fear of being held accountable for their incorrect strategy.(ТАСС, ТАСС)
Internal Russian Issues (Updated):
Internal Security: Peskov stated that the drone attack on the administration building in Belgorod shows how Ukraine observes the ceasefire (previous). Firework display in Reni, Odesa Oblast attributed to "partisans" by Russian sources, indicates potential internal activities or information operations (previous). Colonelcassad shares video from the Russian "Anvar" special detachment claiming the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points in Chernihiv Oblast, suggesting ongoing efforts to counter Ukrainian drone activities near the border. Airspace closed over Kapustin Yar test site, suggesting heightened security measures or planned military activity. (Previous reporting, Два майора, Два майора, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian military blogger claims VDV fighters are engaging and destroying Ukrainian infantry and equipment near Tyotkino. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for equipment for fighters on the Kursk front due to "enemy activation." Archived footage claiming "jewelry precision" destruction of Ukrainian positions in Kharkiv Oblast by Russian UAVs is shared (previous). The Russian Ministry of Defense released daily figures on claimed Ukrainian losses (previous). Russian Ministry of Defense states Russian forces are strictly observing a ceasefire since May 8th based on humanitarian considerations, a claim contradicted by reports of fighting. Colonelcassad shares video from the Russian "Anvar" special detachment claiming the destruction of Ukrainian forces and assets in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, including an artillery piece, strongpoints, and UAV control points. Airspace closed over Kapustin Yar test site, suggesting planned missile testing or activity, including likely ballistic missile tests. Potential future acquisition of Fath-360 missile launch systems from Iran. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion on the Orikhiv direction restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling. Promoting historical narratives of alleged atrocities to reinforce political messaging. Engaged in military exchanges with India as reported by Pakistan. India claims a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases. Colonelcassad shares a photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel and equipment in the conflict zone, providing visual evidence of Russian forces. (Previous reporting, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Civilian Casualties: ASTRA reports that three people have died and seven have been injured in Russian shellings of Sumy Oblast on May 8th and 9th (previous). RBC-Ukraine reports three civilian deaths and seven injured in Sumy Oblast over May 8th and 9th due to Russian shelling. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show forced mobilization in Kharkiv, which could be interpreted as highlighting a perceived negative humanitarian impact on Ukrainian civilians. (Previous reporting, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Information Control and Censorship: Extensive information campaigning around Victory Day is evident. Alex Parker Returns shares a video making a negative historical comparison between Zelenskyy and Hitler, an example of targeted negative information operations. Russian military bloggers are sharing videos promoting patriotism and emphasizing the importance of remembering the "Great feat of the Soviet people." TASS reports that the Russian Ambassador to the US, Alexander Darchiev, stated at a Victory Day reception that current and future generations should not allow Nazism to rise again, claiming it has already taken root in some countries. Colonelcassad shares a video about alleged Nazi atrocities in Makeyevka during WWII, a strong example of utilizing historical narratives for political messaging. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show forced mobilization in Kharkiv, an example of utilizing negative information about Ukraine. Colonelcassad shares a photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel and equipment around Victory Day, contributing to information control and shaping narratives. Colonelcassad shares a video promoting AI-generated content related to the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War, indicating the utilization of advanced technology in Russian information operations.(Previous reporting, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Military Commemoration and Information Operations: Celebratory events for Victory Day are widely reported, including fireworks, drone shows, and auto rallies (previous). Cultural events, such as concerts for military personnel, are being held (previous). Russian sources are sharing historical reflections and using historical footage for political messaging (previous). Peaceful Victory Day celebrations with fireworks and drone shows are reported in various Russian locations (previous). Russian military bloggers emphasize patriotism and historical narratives related to Victory Day. TASS reports American director Oliver Stone attended a Victory Day reception in the Kremlin. Russian military bloggers are sharing videos promoting patriotism and emphasizing the importance of remembering the "Great feat of the Soviet people." Colonelcassad shares a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion on the Orikhiv direction restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling. Colonelcassad shares a video about alleged Nazi atrocities in Makeyevka during WWII, a significant information operation focus around historical narratives. Colonelcassad shares a photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel and equipment around Victory Day, actively participating in information operations. Reports highlight the presence of foreign leaders, including the President of the Republic of Srpska, Milorad Dodik, during Victory Day celebrations in Moscow, demonstrating Russia's efforts to utilize the holiday for consolidating relationships and promoting a narrative of international support.Colonelcassad shares a video promoting AI-generated content related to the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War, indicating the utilization of advanced technology in Russian information operations.(Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, ТАСС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Public Support for the Military: Auto rallies and fundraising efforts indicate continued public support. Cultural events for military personnel aim to strengthen this support. Russian military bloggers continue fundraising for equipment. Kadyrov_95 shares video of a religious gathering with strong patriotic and military undertones. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion on the Orikhiv direction restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling, highlighting their dedication. Colonelcassad shares a photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel in the conflict zone, likely intended to bolster public support. (Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Kadyrov_95, Kadyrov_95, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)
Humanitarian Situation: ASTRA reports civilian casualties and damage to residential and other buildings in Sumy Oblast due to Russian shellings (previous). A Ukrainian military blogger shares a photo captioned "ceasefire," implying continued impacts on civilians (previous). Confirmed civilian casualties in Sumy Oblast due to Russian shelling by RBC-Ukraine. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show forced mobilization in Kharkiv, which could be interpreted as highlighting a perceived negative humanitarian impact on Ukrainian civilians. (Previous reporting, Previous reporting, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Military Support: Russian military bloggers are fundraising for equipment for fighters on the Kursk front. A Ukrainian military blogger is conducting a fundraising campaign for equipment for various brigades (previous). A Russian military blogger is conducting a collection for marine infantrymen on the Kherson direction (previous). Russian military bloggers continue fundraising for equipment. (Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Cultural Support: Artists from Buryatia are conducting concerts for participants of the "SMO" in hospitals and training grounds, providing gifts and boosting morale (previous). Colonelcassad shares a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling. (Previous reporting, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)
Russia: Continues offensive operations, utilizing artillery, guided bombs, and drones. Engaging Ukrainian forces in border regions with VDV units and special detachments. Utilizing extensive information operations, particularly around Victory Day. Conducting shellings on Ukrainian border regions, resulting in civilian casualties despite claims of a ceasefire. Reports of advances near Romanivka, Oleksandropil, and Nova Poltavka. Russian Ministry of Defense states Russian forces are strictly observing a ceasefire since May 8th based on humanitarian considerations, a claim contradicted by reports of fighting. Airspace closed over Kapustin Yar test site, suggesting planned missile testing or activity, including likely ballistic missile tests. Potential future acquisition of Fath-360 missile launch systems from Iran. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion on the Orikhiv direction restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling. Promoting historical narratives of alleged atrocities to reinforce political messaging. Engaged in military exchanges with India as reported by Pakistan. India claims a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases. Colonelcassad shares a photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel and equipment in the conflict zone, providing visual evidence of Russian forces. (Previous reporting, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Ukraine: Continuing defensive and limited offensive operations, including reported cross-border activity. Utilizing drones for engagements, including maritime drone operations. Seeking international support and military aid. Countering Russian information operations. Experiencing shelling of border regions resulting in civilian casualties. Ukrainian sources raise concerns about Hungarian intelligence activities. Engaged in potential military exchanges with Pakistan as reported by India. Hosting high-level European leaders in Kyiv. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show forced mobilization in Kharkiv, an alleged tactic being employed by Ukraine. (Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Strategic Considerations (Updated)
The continued fighting and civilian casualties in Sumy Oblast, as reported by RBC-Ukraine, directly contradict Russian claims of a ceasefire and underscore the ongoing human cost of the conflict and the discrepancy between stated intentions and reality.
The detection of fast-moving targets and the announcement of missile danger in southern Ukraine, along with reported activity of tactical aviation and new KAB launches towards Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts, highlight the continued threat of Russian aerial and missile strikes despite Victory Day commemorations.
Peskov's repeated emphasis on "nuances" regarding a 30-day ceasefire and his use of the Belgorod drone attack as justification for ongoing military action reinforce the view that Russia is utilizing the ceasefire discussion for informational purposes and is unlikely to agree to a genuine, unconditional halt to hostilities under current conditions (previous). The Russian Ministry of Defense's statement about strictly observing a ceasefire while reports of fighting persist further highlights this discrepancy in narratives.
The fundraising efforts by Russian military bloggers for equipment for the Kursk front due to "enemy activation" indicate ongoing Ukrainian pressure in this area and potential logistical needs or challenges for Russian forces.
The statements by Slovak Prime Minister Fico regarding sanctions and a new Iron Curtain indicate differing perspectives within the EU on relations with Russia and highlight potential areas of friction within the bloc regarding future policy towards Moscow (previous). His stance on energy supplies from Russia, and his promise to use Slovakia's veto power to block an EU ban, is particularly notable and strengthens Russia's position regarding energy exports to the EU. The conclusion of his talks with Putin suggests these discussions have reached a certain point (previous). Fico's labeling of attempts to hinder his visit as a "child's joke" further underscores his stance and potential alignment with Russia on certain issues.
The release of Roman Nasirov on bail is an internal Ukrainian political development that could have implications for anti-corruption efforts and public perception (previous).
Vice-Prime Minister Stefanishyna's discussion of Ukraine's potential EU accession timeline underscores Ukraine's continued strategic orientation towards European integration and the ongoing efforts to meet the required criteria, despite the ongoing conflict (previous).
The firework display in Reni, Odesa Oblast, attributed to "partisans" by Russian sources, could represent a low-level internal security concern for Ukraine or be an element of Russian information operations to suggest internal dissent or activity.
The reported Russian advances near Romanivka, Oleksandropil, and Nova Poltavka, confirmed by DeepState, indicate localized but ongoing ground pressure from Russian forces in these areas.
Concerns raised by Ukrainian sources regarding Hungarian intelligence activities focused on Ukraine introduce a potential new layer of complexity in Ukraine's international relationships and underscore the importance of counter-intelligence within the NATO alliance.
The closure of airspace over the Kapustin Yar test site and reports of potential Iranian supply of missile launch systems to Russia suggest planned military activity and potential future escalations in Russia's missile capabilities. The timing of the airspace closure over Kapustin Yar could be indicative of upcoming missile tests or deployments, likely ballistic missile tests based on Russian military blogger reports.
The continued and varied Russian information operations around Victory Day aim to reinforce domestic support, project an image of strength and historical legitimacy, and influence international perceptions, including through engaging figures like Oliver Stone and promoting specific historical narratives. The efforts to link the current conflict to the "Great feat of the Soviet people" are particularly notable in these narratives. The statements by the Russian Ambassador to the US regarding Nazism are directed at an international audience to promote the Russian narrative. Colonelcassad's video of monument restoration on the front line is another example of linking the current conflict to historical narratives and promoting military dedication. The video detailing alleged Nazi atrocities in Makeyevka is a potent example of utilizing historical narratives to demonize the enemy. Colonelcassad's photo selection showcasing Russian military personnel and equipment around Victory Day actively contributes to the narrative of ongoing military efforts and aims to influence perceptions. Reports highlight the presence of foreign leaders, including the President of the Republic of Srpska, Milorad Dodik, during Victory Day celebrations in Moscow, demonstrating Russia's efforts to utilize the holiday for consolidating relationships and promoting a narrative of international support.Colonelcassad shares a video promoting AI-generated content related to the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War, indicating the utilization of advanced technology in Russian information operations.
Putin's extensive diplomatic engagements on Victory Day underscore Russia's efforts to maintain and strengthen international relationships and garner support, particularly with countries like Uzbekistan and Slovakia.
The reported escalation between India and Pakistan, with alleged strikes and explosions, highlights the potential for regional conflicts to impact the broader geopolitical landscape, potentially drawing attention and resources away from the conflict in Ukraine or creating new areas of international tension. The conflicting claims surrounding these strikes indicate a dynamic and potentially unpredictable situation in that region. India's claim of a series of strikes on three Pakistani airbases further confirms the level of escalation.
The reported visit of German, French, and UK leaders to Kyiv signals continued strong political support for Ukraine from key European powers and likely involves discussions on further aid and strategic coordination. The confirmed presence of French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Kyiv signifies a high-level and coordinated show of support for Ukraine.
The statement from the Russian Ambassador to the US about restoring relations, while potentially a diplomatic overture, comes amidst continued conflict and reflects the complex and strained nature of Russia-US relations. Former US President Donald Trump's reiteration of his call for an end to the war adds another dimension to the US political landscape concerning the conflict.
Poland-Ukraine Relations: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is in Kyiv as part of a high-level European delegation. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Hungary-EU Relations:Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó's statement regarding European leaders delaying peace talks out of fear of accountability introduces a critical perspective from within the EU and highlights potential internal disagreements regarding the conflict's resolution.(ТАСС, ТАСС)
Colonelcassad's video claiming to show forced mobilization in Kharkiv is a clear example of Russian information operations aimed at demoralizing the Ukrainian population and potentially influencing international opinion regarding Ukraine's internal situation.
Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.
