Sitrep 2025-05-09 22:10:45

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 9, 2025, 22:10 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational landscape remains marked by ongoing and intense ground combat across various fronts, despite persistent Russian claims of a Victory Day ceasefire based on humanitarian considerations since May 8th. The Kursk border region continues to be an area of active engagement with reports of Ukrainian attempts at incursions and Russian counter-efforts, including claims of VDV fighters engaging Ukrainian forces near Tyotkino. Russian aerial and drone activity continues across various Ukrainian oblasts, accompanied by air raid alerts, particularly in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts due to KAB launches. DeepState reports Russian advances near Romanivka, Oleksandropil, and Nova Poltavka, indicating continued Russian ground operations in eastern Ukraine. Information operations surrounding Victory Day remain prominent from both sides, with Russia celebrating the holiday and showcasing military ceremonies, while Ukraine highlights the reality of continued fighting and casualties. The escalation between India and Pakistan continues to be a significant regional development, with reports of exchanges of fire and claimed strikes on military bases.

New information from the latest messages provides further details on ongoing Russian military activities, information operations, international relations, and regional conflicts:

Putin-Fico Meeting Details: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on the details of the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico in the Kremlin. Putin thanked Fico for his visit despite "logistical obstacles" and stated that those who tried to restrain Fico have been proven wrong. He also expressed Moscow's appreciation for Bratislava's initiative to create a monument to Marshal Konev and offered Russian assistance. Putin highlighted that previous Slovak authorities followed the Western line, leading to frozen relations, and stated that Russia will do everything to restore relations. Fico thanked Russia for its hospitality and care during the visit. He referred to attempts by EU countries to hinder his visit as a "child's joke." He expressed Slovakia's interest in cooperating with Russia on preserving WWII monuments. Fico reiterated that sanctions against Russia are not working and harm the European Union. He also stated that cooperation with Russia on peaceful atom energy should not be stopped and that Slovakia is ready to use its veto on prohibiting energy supplies from Russia to Europe. This report further details the deepening of Russia-Slovakia relations and Fico's strong stance against EU sanctions on Russian energy. (Операция Z: Военкоры Руссной Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Fico Promises Veto on Russian Energy Import Ban: РБК-Україна specifically highlights Fico's promise to Putin to use Slovakia's veto power to block a ban on Russian energy imports to the EU. Fico is quoted as saying that if agreement is needed from all 27 member states, Slovakia will use its veto. This reiterates and emphasizes a key outcome of the Putin-Fico meeting with significant implications for EU energy policy towards Russia. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Continued Escalation in India-Pakistan Conflict: РБК-Україна reports on a powerful explosion in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, believed to be an Indian strike on the Pakistani Nur Khan Air Force Base. A fire reportedly broke out at the site. Pakistan's security service claims the explosion was due to the interception and destruction of an Indian UAV. Air defense systems are actively working over Islamabad. Simultaneously, Reuters reports four explosions in the Indian city of Amritsar. This indicates continued and potentially escalating military exchanges between India and Pakistan. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Trump Comments on US-China Trade Deal: ТАСС reports that Donald Trump stated that the US could conclude a trade agreement with China that would be fair to both Beijing and Washington. This is a statement from a prominent US political figure regarding potential future trade policy, although it is not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine. (ТАСС)

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (Romanivka, Oleksandropil, Nova Poltavka): Russian forces have advanced near Romanivka, Oleksandropil, and Nova Poltavka according to DeepState. Launches of KABs are detected towards Donetsk Oblast. (DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Sumy Oblast (Bunyakino, Sukhodol, Novovasilievka, Bachevsk): Launches of KABs are detected towards Sumy Oblast. Rocket danger is announced and subsequently cleared for Sumy Oblast. RBC-Ukraine reports three civilian deaths and seven injured in Sumy Oblast over May 8th and 9th due to Russian shelling. Colonelcassad shares video from the Russian "Anvar" special detachment claiming the destruction of Ukrainian forces and assets in settlements in Sumy Oblast (Bunyakino, Sukhodol, Novovasilievka, Bachevsk). (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Chernihiv Oblast (Klyusy, Gorsk): Colonelcassad shares video from the Russian "Anvar" special detachment claiming the destruction of Ukrainian forces and assets in settlements in Chernihiv Oblast (Klyusy, Gorsk), specifically targeting UAV control points. (Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Kursk Border Region (including Tetkino): Continued active engagement with reported Ukrainian attempts at incursions and Russian counter-efforts. Russian military bloggers report VDV fighters are engaging and destroying Ukrainian infantry and equipment near Tyotkino. Russian sources are also fundraising for equipment for fighters on the Kursk front due to "enemy activation." (Previous reporting, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Odesa Oblast (Reni): Firework display reported in Reni, attributed to "partisans" by Russian sources, which caused significant reaction in the Ukrainian internet segment. (Два майора, Два майора)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Missile danger is announced for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and subsequently cleared. (Previous reporting, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Fast-moving targets from southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast are detected heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (Previous reporting)
Kapustin Yar Test Site (Astrakhan and Volgograd/Saratov Oblasts, Russia): Airspace closed from May 12th 06:00 to May 13th 06:00 (monitoring) and May 12th 06:00 to May 13th 04:00 UTC (Russian military bloggers), suggesting planned missile testing or activity, potentially involving "Oreshnik" type missiles and likely ballistic missile tests. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Orikhiv Direction: Colonelcassad shares a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling. (Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Rawalpindi, Pakistan: Powerful explosion reported, believed to be an Indian strike on Nur Khan Air Force Base. Fire reported. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Islamabad, Pakistan: Air defense systems actively working over the capital. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Amritsar, India: Four explosions reported. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: A drone show was held in Magadan Oblast, Russia, for Victory Day. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for drones and signal amplifiers for the Kursk front. A Ukrainian source shares a video claiming successful work by Ukrainian Black Sea Lions 37th Separate Marine Battalion drone pilots (previous). Archived footage claiming "jewelry precision" destruction of Ukrainian positions in Kharkiv Oblast by Russian UAVs is shared (previous). Peaceful Victory Day drone shows reported in Ola, Magadan Oblast. Colonelcassad shares video from the Russian "Anvar" special detachment claiming the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points in Chernihiv Oblast. Pakistan claims an Indian UAV was intercepted and destroyed over Rawalpindi. (Previous reporting, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Repeated launches of KABs towards Sumy Oblast are reported (previous). KAB launches detected towards Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. (Previous reporting, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Missile Activity: Missile danger is announced for Zaporizhzhia Oblast (previous). Fast-moving targets are detected moving from southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (previous). Missile danger is announced for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (previous). Airspace closed over Kapustin Yar test site from May 12th-13th, suggesting planned missile activity, potentially involving "Oreshnik" type missiles and likely ballistic missile tests. Reuters sources report Iran is preparing to supply Fath-360 missile launch systems to Russia. Rocket danger is announced and subsequently cleared for Sumy Oblast. (Previous reporting, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Aviation Activity: Activity of enemy tactical aviation is reported on the southeastern direction (previous). Possible Indian air strike on a Pakistani Air Force Base in Rawalpindi. (Previous reporting, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Naval Activity: No new specific naval engagements reported. A Ukrainian source shares a video claiming successful work by Ukrainian Black Sea Lions 37th Separate Marine Battalion drone pilots, suggesting continued maritime drone operations. (Previous reporting, Previous reporting)
Air Defense Activity: Air defense systems actively working over Islamabad, Pakistan. Pakistan claims interception and destruction of an Indian UAV over Rawalpindi. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Victory Day Narratives: Extensive Russian information operations around Victory Day continue, including fireworks in Moscow and other cities, drone shows in Magadan Oblast, and auto rallies in Crimea (previous). Russian military bloggers are celebrating the holiday and highlighting perceived Ukrainian actions contradicting the claimed ceasefire. Russian sources are also sharing historical reflections on the significance of Victory Day. Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan attended the Victory Day Parade in Moscow (previous). Cultural events, including concerts for military personnel, are reported (previous). Russian sources are using historical footage to make political statements regarding Ukraine (previous). Maria Zakharova speaks about a song related to Victory Day in Vienna (previous). Russian Ministry of Defense states Russian forces are strictly observing a ceasefire since May 8th based on humanitarian considerations. Kadyrov_95 shares video of a religious gathering commemorating his father, linking it to service and protection from enemies. Russian military bloggers emphasize patriotism and historical narratives related to Victory Day. Alex Parker Returns shares video making a negative historical comparison between Zelenskyy and Hitler. TASS reports American director Oliver Stone attended a Victory Day reception in the Kremlin. Russian military bloggers are sharing videos promoting patriotism and emphasizing the importance of remembering the "Great feat of the Soviet people." TASS reports that Putin spent over 14 hours on May 9th in discussions with high-ranking foreign guests. TASS reports that Putin concluded a series of bilateral international meetings by receiving the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, in the Kremlin. TASS reports that the Russian Ambassador to the US, Alexander Darchiev, stated at a Victory Day reception that current and future generations should not allow Nazism to rise again, claiming it has already taken root in some countries. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion on the Orikhiv direction restored a monument to the heroes of the Great Patriotic War directly on the front line during shelling. Details of the Putin-Fico meeting highlight Russia's diplomatic engagement around the holiday. (Previous reporting, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Kadyrov_95, Kadyrov_95, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, ТАСС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
International Efforts for Peace: Discussions regarding a 30-day ceasefire proposal are ongoing, with a Ukrainian source reporting on the differing perspectives of the West, Ukraine, and Russia on the matter (previous). Peskov reiterated that discussion of a 30-day ceasefire is impossible without considering "nuances," referencing a reported Ukrainian drone attack in Belgorod as an example of Ukraine not observing the ceasefire (previous). (Previous reporting, Previous reporting)
Russia-Brazil Relations: The topic of Ukraine was raised during Putin's meeting with Brazilian President Lula da Silva (previous). (Previous reporting)
Russia-Slovakia Relations: Putin valued Slovak Prime Minister Fico's decision to attend Victory Day celebrations in Moscow, and Fico thanked Putin for his hospitality (previous). Fico stated that anti-Russian sanctions are not working and harm the EU, and that Slovakia is ready to use its veto on prohibiting energy supplies from Russia to Europe (previous). He also stated he does not support the idea of a new Iron Curtain in Europe (previous). Discussions between Putin and Fico have concluded (previous). Fico called attempts by some European countries to hinder his visit to Russia a "child's joke." Latest reports provide further details on the Putin-Fico meeting, emphasizing Fico's stance on sanctions and his promise to veto an EU ban on Russian energy imports. (Previous reporting, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Internal Ukrainian Politics: Bail has been posted for Roman Nasirov, the former head of the State Fiscal Service of Ukraine, and he has been released from custody (previous). Vice-Prime Minister Stefanishyna discussed Ukraine's potential timeline for EU accession (previous). Ukrainian source raises concerns about Hungarian intelligence activities focused on Ukraine, citing a Hungarian journalist's claims. (Previous reporting, Previous reporting, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Internal Russian Politics: Peskov commented on the discussion of a 30-day ceasefire (previous). The Russian Ministry of Defense released daily figures on claimed Ukrainian losses (previous). Celebratory events for Victory Day are widely reported across Russia (previous). Russian Ministry of Defense states Russian forces are strictly observing a ceasefire since May 8th based on humanitarian considerations. Kadyrov_95 shares video of a religious gathering commemorating his father. TASS reports American director Oliver Stone attended a Victory Day reception in the Kremlin. TASS reports that Putin spent over 14 hours on May 9th in discussions with high-ranking foreign guests. TASS reports that Putin concluded a series of bilateral international meetings by receiving the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, in the Kremlin. TASS reports that the Russian Ambassador to the US, Alexander Darchiev, stated at a Victory Day reception that current and future generations should not allow Nazism to rise again, claiming it has already taken root in some countries. Details of the Putin-Fico meeting are reported. (Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, Kadyrov_95, Kadyrov_95, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Iran-Russia Relations: Reuters sources report Iran is preparing to supply launch systems for Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia in the near future. (Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Russia-Uzbekistan Relations: TASS reports that Putin concluded a series of bilateral international meetings by receiving the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, in the Kremlin. (ТАСС, ТАСС)
US-China Relations: Donald Trump comments on potential for a fair trade deal. (ТАСС)
India-Pakistan Conflict: Escalation reported with alleged strikes on military bases and explosions in cities. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security: Peskov stated that the drone attack on the administration building in Belgorod shows how Ukraine observes the ceasefire (previous). Firework display in Reni, Odesa Oblast attributed to "partisans" by Russian sources, indicates potential internal activities or information operations (previous). Colonelcassad shares video from the Russian "Anvar" special detachment claiming the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points in Chernihiv Oblast, suggesting ongoing efforts to counter Ukrainian drone activities near the border. Airspace closed over Kapustin Yar test site, suggesting heightened security measures or planned military activity. (Previous reporting, Два майора, Два майора, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian military blogger claims VDV fighters are engaging and destroying Ukrainian infantry and equipment near Tyotkino. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for equipment for fighters on the Kursk front due to "enemy activation." Archived footage claiming "jewelry precision" destruction of Ukrainian positions in Kharkiv Oblast by Russian UAVs is shared (previous). The Russian Ministry of Defense released daily figures on claimed Ukrainian losses (previous). Russian Ministry of Defense states Russian forces are strictly observing a ceasefire since May 8th based on humanitarian considerations, a claim contradicted by reports of fighting. Colonelcassad shares video from the Russian "Anvar" special detachment claiming the destruction of Ukrainian forces and assets in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, including an artillery piece, strongpoints, and UAV control points. Airspace closed over Kapustin Yar test site, suggesting planned missile testing or activity, including likely ballistic missile tests. Reuters sources report Iran is preparing to supply Fath-360 missile launch systems to Russia, indicating potential future military capabilities. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion on the Orikhiv direction restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling. (Previous reporting, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Civilian Casualties: ASTRA reports that three people have died and seven have been injured in Russian shellings of Sumy Oblast on May 8th and 9th (previous). RBC-Ukraine reports three civilian deaths and seven injured in Sumy Oblast over May 8th and 9th due to Russian shelling. (Previous reporting, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Information Control and Censorship: Extensive information campaigning around Victory Day is evident. Alex Parker Returns shares a video making a negative historical comparison between Zelenskyy and Hitler, an example of targeted negative information operations. Russian military bloggers are sharing videos promoting patriotism and emphasizing the importance of remembering the "Great feat of the Soviet people." TASS reports that the Russian Ambassador to the US, Alexander Darchiev, stated at a Victory Day reception that current and future generations should not allow Nazism to rise again, claiming it has already taken root in some countries. (Previous reporting, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС)
Military Commemoration and Information Operations: Celebratory events for Victory Day are widely reported, including fireworks, drone shows, and auto rallies (previous). Cultural events, such as concerts for military personnel, are being held (previous). Russian sources are sharing historical reflections and using historical footage for political messaging (previous). Peaceful Victory Day celebrations with fireworks and drone shows are reported in various Russian locations (previous). Russian military bloggers emphasize patriotism and historical narratives related to Victory Day. TASS reports American director Oliver Stone attended a Victory Day reception in the Kremlin. Russian military bloggers are sharing videos promoting patriotism and emphasizing the importance of remembering the "Great feat of the Soviet people." Colonelcassad shares a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion on the Orikhiv direction restored a monument to the heroes of the Great Patriotic War directly on the front line during shelling. (Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, ТАСС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Public Support for the Military: Auto rallies and fundraising efforts indicate continued public support. Cultural events for military personnel aim to strengthen this support. Russian military bloggers continue fundraising for equipment. Kadyrov_95 shares video of a religious gathering with strong patriotic and military undertones. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion on the Orikhiv direction restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling, highlighting their dedication. (Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Kadyrov_95, Kadyrov_95, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Humanitarian Situation: ASTRA reports civilian casualties and damage to residential and other buildings in Sumy Oblast due to Russian shellings (previous). A Ukrainian military blogger shares a photo captioned "ceasefire," implying continued impacts on civilians (previous). Confirmed civilian casualties in Sumy Oblast due to Russian shelling by RBC-Ukraine. (Previous reporting, Previous reporting, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Military Support: Russian military bloggers are fundraising for equipment for fighters on the Kursk front. A Ukrainian military blogger is conducting a fundraising campaign for equipment for various brigades (previous). A Russian military blogger is conducting a collection for marine infantrymen on the Kherson direction (previous). Russian military bloggers continue fundraising for equipment. (Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Cultural Support: Artists from Buryatia are conducting concerts for participants of the "SMO" in hospitals and training grounds, providing gifts and boosting morale (previous). Colonelcassad shares a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion on the Orikhiv direction restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling. (Previous reporting, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Russia: Continues offensive operations, utilizing artillery, guided bombs, and drones. Engaging Ukrainian forces in border regions with VDV units and special detachments. Utilizing extensive information operations, particularly around Victory Day. Conducting shellings on Ukrainian border regions, resulting in civilian casualties despite claims of a ceasefire. Reports of advances near Romanivka, Oleksandropil, and Nova Poltavka. Russian Ministry of Defense states Russian forces are strictly observing a ceasefire since May 8th based on humanitarian considerations, a claim contradicted by reports of fighting. Airspace closed over Kapustin Yar test site, suggesting planned missile testing or activity, including likely ballistic missile tests. Potential future acquisition of Fath-360 missile launch systems from Iran. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming volunteers of the BARS-3 battalion on the Orikhiv direction restored a monument directly on the front line during shelling. (Previous reporting, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Ukraine: Continuing defensive and limited offensive operations, including reported cross-border activity. Utilizing drones for engagements, including maritime drone operations. Seeking international support and military aid. Countering Russian information operations. Experiencing shelling of border regions resulting in civilian casualties. Ukrainian sources raise concerns about Hungarian intelligence activities. Engaged in potential military exchanges with India as reported by Pakistan. (Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The continued fighting and civilian casualties in Sumy Oblast, as reported by RBC-Ukraine, directly contradict Russian claims of a ceasefire and underscore the ongoing human cost of the conflict and the discrepancy between stated intentions and reality.
The detection of fast-moving targets and the announcement of missile danger in southern Ukraine, along with reported activity of tactical aviation and new KAB launches towards Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts, highlight the continued threat of Russian aerial and missile strikes despite Victory Day commemorations.
Peskov's repeated emphasis on "nuances" regarding a 30-day ceasefire and his use of the Belgorod drone attack as justification for ongoing military action reinforce the view that Russia is utilizing the ceasefire discussion for informational purposes and is unlikely to agree to a genuine, unconditional halt to hostilities under current conditions (previous). The Russian Ministry of Defense's statement about strictly observing a ceasefire while reports of fighting persist further highlights this discrepancy in narratives.
The fundraising efforts by Russian military bloggers for equipment for the Kursk front due to "enemy activation" indicate ongoing Ukrainian pressure in this area and potential logistical needs or challenges for Russian forces.
The statements by Slovak Prime Minister Fico regarding sanctions and a new Iron Curtain indicate differing perspectives within the EU on relations with Russia and highlight potential areas of friction within the bloc regarding future policy towards Moscow (previous). His stance on energy supplies from Russia, and his promise to use Slovakia's veto power to block an EU ban, is particularly notable and strengthens Russia's position regarding energy exports to the EU. The conclusion of his talks with Putin suggests these discussions have reached a certain point (previous). Fico's labeling of attempts to hinder his visit as a "child's joke" further underscores his stance and potential alignment with Russia on certain issues.
The release of Roman Nasirov on bail is an internal Ukrainian political development that could have implications for anti-corruption efforts and public perception (previous).
Vice-Prime Minister Stefanishyna's discussion of Ukraine's potential EU accession timeline underscores Ukraine's continued strategic orientation towards European integration and the ongoing efforts to meet the required criteria, despite the ongoing conflict (previous).
The firework display in Reni, Odesa Oblast, attributed to "partisans" by Russian sources, could represent a low-level internal security concern for Ukraine or be an element of Russian information operations to suggest internal dissent or activity.
The reported Russian advances near Romanivka, Oleksandropil, and Nova Poltavka, confirmed by DeepState, indicate localized but ongoing ground pressure from Russian forces in these areas.
Concerns raised by Ukrainian sources regarding Hungarian intelligence activities focused on Ukraine introduce a potential new layer of complexity in Ukraine's international relationships and underscore the importance of counter-intelligence within the NATO alliance.
The closure of airspace over the Kapustin Yar test site and reports of potential Iranian supply of missile launch systems to Russia suggest planned military activity and potential future escalations in Russia's missile capabilities. The timing of the airspace closure over Kapustin Yar could be indicative of upcoming missile tests or deployments, likely ballistic missile tests based on Russian military blogger reports.
The continued and varied Russian information operations around Victory Day aim to reinforce domestic support, project an image of strength and historical legitimacy, and influence international perceptions, including through engaging figures like Oliver Stone and promoting specific historical narratives. The efforts to link the current conflict to the "Great feat of the Soviet people" are particularly notable in these narratives. The statements by the Russian Ambassador to the US regarding Nazism are directed at an international audience to promote the Russian narrative. Colonelcassad's video of monument restoration on the front line is another example of linking the current conflict to historical narratives and promoting military dedication.
Putin's extensive diplomatic engagements on Victory Day underscore Russia's efforts to maintain and strengthen international relationships and garner support, particularly with countries like Uzbekistan and Slovakia.
The reported escalation between India and Pakistan, with alleged strikes and explosions, highlights the potential for regional conflicts to impact the broader geopolitical landscape, potentially drawing attention and resources away from the conflict in Ukraine or creating new areas of international tension.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report