Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 9, 2025, 20:40 UTC)
Updated Situation
The operational landscape continues to be defined by intense ground combat despite persistent Russian claims of a Victory Day ceasefire. The Kursk border region remains an active area with reported Ukrainian attempts at incursions and Russian counter-efforts. Russian aerial and drone activity continues across various Ukrainian oblasts, accompanied by air raid alerts. Information operations surrounding Victory Day are prominent from both sides.
New information highlights ongoing Russian information campaigns celebrating Victory Day and maintaining the narrative of a ceasefire despite reports of continued fighting. Ukrainian sources highlight the continued reality of combat and civilian casualties. There are reports of a firework display in Odesa Oblast, which Russian sources attribute to "partisans" and note caused significant reaction in the Ukrainian internet segment. Concerns are raised by Ukrainian sources regarding Hungarian intelligence activities focused on Ukraine. Russia reports observing a ceasefire in the conflict zone on May 8th and 9th based on humanitarian considerations. Both Ukrainian and Russian military bloggers continue fundraising efforts for equipment. Air raid alerts have been issued for Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts due to Russian KAB launches. Peaceful Victory Day celebrations involving fireworks and drone shows are reported in various locations across Russia. Discussions between Putin and Slovak Prime Minister Fico have concluded. Reports from DeepState indicate Russian advances near Romanivka, Oleksandropil, and Nova Poltavka, suggesting continued Russian ground operations in these areas.
Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)
Kursk Border Region (including Tetkino):Continued active engagement. Russian military bloggers report VDV fighters are engaging and destroying Ukrainian infantry and equipment near Tyotkino. Russian sources are also fundraising for equipment for fighters on the Kursk front due to "enemy activation."
Across Ukraine:Missile danger is announced for Zaporizhzhia Oblast.Fast-moving targets from southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast are detected heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.Tactical enemy aviation activity is reported on the southeastern direction, posing a threat of using aerial weapons in frontline oblasts.Air raid alerts issued for Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts due to Russian KAB launches.
Odesa Oblast:Firework display reported in Reni, attributed to "partisans" by Russian sources.
Romanivka:Russian forces have advanced.
Oleksandropil:Russian forces have advanced.
Nova Poltavka:Russian forces have advanced.
Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):
Drone Activity: A drone show was held in Magadan Oblast, Russia, for Victory Day. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for drones and signal amplifiers for the Kursk front. A Ukrainian source shares a video claiming successful work by Ukrainian Black Sea Lions 37th Separate Marine Battalion drone pilots. Archived footage claiming "jewelry precision" destruction of Ukrainian positions in Kharkiv Oblast by Russian UAVs is shared. Peaceful Victory Day drone shows reported in Ola, Magadan Oblast.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Repeated launches of KABs towards Sumy Oblast are reported. KAB launches detected towards Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts.
Missile Activity: Missile danger is announced for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Fast-moving targets are detected moving from southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Missile danger is announced for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Aviation Activity: Activity of enemy tactical aviation is reported on the southeastern direction.
Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):
Victory Day Narratives: Extensive Russian information operations around Victory Day continue, including fireworks in Moscow and other cities, drone shows in Magadan Oblast, and auto rallies in Crimea. Russian military bloggers are celebrating the holiday and highlighting perceived Ukrainian actions contradicting the claimed ceasefire. Russian sources are also sharing historical reflections on the significance of Victory Day. Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan attended the Victory Day Parade in Moscow, although without an Armenian military contingent, which is being analyzed by Russian sources as a sign of balancing relations. Cultural events, including concerts for military personnel, are reported. Russian sources are using historical footage to make political statements regarding Ukraine. Maria Zakharova speaks about a song related to Victory Day in Vienna.Discussions between Putin and Slovak Prime Minister Fico have concluded.
International Efforts for Peace: Discussions regarding a 30-day ceasefire proposal are ongoing, with a Ukrainian source reporting on the differing perspectives of the West, Ukraine, and Russia on the matter. Peskov reiterated that discussion of a 30-day ceasefire is impossible without considering "nuances," referencing a reported Ukrainian drone attack in Belgorod as an example of Ukraine not observing the ceasefire.
Russia-Brazil Relations: The topic of Ukraine was raised during Putin's meeting with Brazilian President Lula da Silva.
Russia-Slovakia Relations: Putin valued Slovak Prime Minister Fico's decision to attend Victory Day celebrations in Moscow, and Fico thanked Putin for his hospitality. Fico stated that anti-Russian sanctions are not working and harm the EU, and that Slovakia is ready to use its veto on prohibiting energy supplies from Russia to Europe. He also stated he does not support the idea of a new Iron Curtain in Europe. Discussions between Putin and Fico have concluded.
Internal Ukrainian Politics: Bail has been posted for Roman Nasirov, the former head of the State Fiscal Service of Ukraine, and he has been released from custody. Vice-Prime Minister Stefanishyna discussed Ukraine's potential timeline for EU accession, aiming for obligations not requiring transition periods by 2027. Ukrainian source raises concerns about Hungarian intelligence activities focused on Ukraine.
Russian Internal Politics: Peskov commented on the discussion of a 30-day ceasefire. The Russian Ministry of Defense released daily figures on claimed Ukrainian losses. Celebratory events for Victory Day are widely reported across Russia. The death of a military medical commission head in Sevastopol due to an accidental self-inflicted gunshot wound was reported earlier. A Russian military blogger notes that former Deputy Minister of Defense Popov has been found, referencing his earlier hospitalization. Russian Ministry of Defense states Russian forces are strictly observing a ceasefire since May 8th based on humanitarian considerations.
Internal Russian Issues (Updated):
Internal Security: Peskov stated that the drone attack on the administration building in Belgorod shows how Ukraine observes the ceasefire. Firework display in Reni, Odesa Oblast attributed to "partisans" by Russian sources, indicates potential internal activities or information operations.
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian military blogger claims VDV fighters are engaging and destroying Ukrainian infantry and equipment near Tyotkino. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for equipment for fighters on the Kursk front due to "enemy activation." Archived footage claiming "jewelry precision" destruction of Ukrainian positions in Kharkiv Oblast by Russian UAVs is shared. The Russian Ministry of Defense released daily figures on claimed Ukrainian losses.
Civilian Casualties: ASTRA reports that three people have died and seven have been injured in Russian shellings of Sumy Oblast on May 8th and 9th. RBC-Ukraine reports three civilian deaths and seven injured in Sumy Oblast over May 8th and 9th due to Russian shelling.
Information Control and Censorship: Extensive information campaigning around Victory Day is evident.
Military Commemoration and Information Operations: Celebratory events for Victory Day are widely reported, including fireworks, drone shows, and auto rallies. Cultural events, such as concerts for military personnel, are being held. Russian sources are sharing historical reflections and using historical footage for political messaging. Peaceful Victory Day celebrations with fireworks and drone shows are reported in various Russian locations.
Public Support for the Military: Auto rallies and fundraising efforts indicate continued public support. Cultural events for military personnel aim to strengthen this support. Russian military bloggers continue fundraising for equipment.
Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)
Humanitarian Situation: ASTRA reports civilian casualties and damage to residential and other buildings in Sumy Oblast due to Russian shellings. A Ukrainian military blogger shares a photo captioned "ceasefire," implying continued impacts on civilians. Confirmed civilian casualties in Sumy Oblast due to Russian shelling.
Military Support: Russian military bloggers are fundraising for equipment for fighters on the Kursk front. A Ukrainian military blogger is conducting a fundraising campaign for equipment for various brigades. A Russian military blogger is conducting a collection for marine infantrymen on the Kherson direction. Russian military bloggers continue fundraising for equipment.
Cultural Support: Artists from Buryatia are conducting concerts for participants of the "SMO" in hospitals and training grounds, providing gifts and boosting morale.
Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)
Russia: Continues offensive operations, utilizing artillery, guided bombs, and drones. Engaging Ukrainian forces in border regions with VDV units. Utilizing extensive information operations. Conducting shellings on Ukrainian border regions. Reports of advances near Romanivka, Oleksandropil, and Nova Poltavka.Russian Ministry of Defense states Russian forces are strictly observing a ceasefire since May 8th based on humanitarian considerations.
Ukraine: Continuing defensive and limited offensive operations, including reported cross-border activity. Utilizing drones for engagements. Seeking international support and military aid. Countering Russian information operations. Ukrainian sources raise concerns about Hungarian intelligence activities.
Strategic Considerations (Updated)
The continued fighting and civilian casualties in Sumy Oblast, as reported by ASTRA and RBC-Ukraine, directly contradict Russian claims of a ceasefire and underscore the ongoing human cost of the conflict and the discrepancy between stated intentions and reality.
The detection of fast-moving targets and the announcement of missile danger in southern Ukraine, along with reported activity of tactical aviation and new KAB launches towards Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts, highlight the continued threat of Russian aerial and missile strikes despite Victory Day commemorations.
Peskov's repeated emphasis on "nuances" regarding a 30-day ceasefire and his use of the Belgorod drone attack as justification for ongoing military action reinforce the view that Russia is utilizing the ceasefire discussion for informational purposes and is unlikely to agree to a genuine, unconditional halt to hostilities under current conditions. The Russian Ministry of Defense's statement about strictly observing a ceasefire while reports of fighting persist further highlights this discrepancy in narratives.
The fundraising efforts by Russian military bloggers for equipment for the Kursk front due to "enemy activation" indicate ongoing Ukrainian pressure in this area and potential logistical needs or challenges for Russian forces.
The statements by Slovak Prime Minister Fico regarding sanctions and a new Iron Curtain indicate differing perspectives within the EU on relations with Russia and highlight potential areas of friction within the bloc regarding future policy towards Moscow. His stance on energy supplies from Russia is particularly notable. The conclusion of his talks with Putin suggests these discussions have reached a certain point.
The release of Roman Nasirov on bail is an internal Ukrainian political development that could have implications for anti-corruption efforts and public perception.
Vice-Prime Minister Stefanishyna's discussion of Ukraine's potential EU accession timeline underscores Ukraine's continued strategic orientation towards European integration and the ongoing efforts to meet the required criteria, despite the ongoing conflict.
The firework display in Reni, Odesa Oblast, attributed to "partisans" by Russian sources, could represent a low-level internal security concern for Ukraine or be an element of Russian information operations to suggest internal dissent or activity.
The reported Russian advances near Romanivka, Oleksandropil, and Nova Poltavka indicate localized but ongoing ground pressure from Russian forces in these areas.
Concerns raised by Ukrainian sources regarding Hungarian intelligence activities focused on Ukraine introduce a potential new layer of complexity in Ukraine's international relationships and underscore the importance of counter-intelligence.
Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.
