Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 9, 2025, 19:10 UTC)

---

Updated Situation

The operational situation remains characterized by ongoing intense ground combat on key axes, particularly Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka, despite Russian claims of a ceasefire for Victory Day, which are contradicted by Ukrainian reporting of continued attacks and Russian military blogger accounts of localized advances. The Kursk border region continues to see active engagements, with Ukrainian forces attempting cross-border incursions and facing Russian resistance, including claimed destruction of Ukrainian equipment and reports of reduced Ukrainian activity possibly due to the destruction of a crossing point. Russian aerial and drone activity persists across numerous Ukrainian oblasts, with ongoing air raid alerts, including missile threats to Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts, and reports of Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Russian territory. A significant warning from the US Embassy in Kyiv about a potentially significant Russian aerial attack in the coming days highlights the continued high threat level. Tragically, civilian casualties continue to be reported on both sides.

Diplomatic and information operations are in full swing, heavily influenced by Victory Day commemorations in Russia. Russia is actively promoting patriotic narratives and showcasing military actions and captured equipment. Ukraine is also countering Russian narratives and highlighting their defenders and successful operations, such as the claimed SSOs raid in Belgorod Oblast. Discussions regarding potential peace negotiations continue, with figures like Donald Trump and the US and European allies proposing ceasefire initiatives. Internal Russian issues include security incidents, extensive information campaigning around Victory Day, and reports of casualties from non-combat incidents. Diplomatic engagements related to Victory Day, such as the participation of foreign delegations, are ongoing. The UK is reportedly set to impose sanctions on Russian oil tankers. A tragic incident involving a fatal gas explosion in Moscow impacting a soldier's family has been reported.

Key updates and analysis from the latest messages:

• Propaganda Film on "Why Russians Cannot Be Defeated": WarGonzo and Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition share a short documentary film titled "Eighty" featuring various figures reflecting on the meaning of war and victory, particularly in the context of the current conflict and its connection to the 80th anniversary of Victory Day. This is a clear example of Russian information operation utilizing cultural products and prominent figures to bolster patriotic narratives and justify the ongoing conflict.
• US Embassy Warning Confirmed by Ukrainian Sources: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ confirm and amplify the warning from the US Embassy in Kyiv regarding a potentially significant aerial attack in the coming days. They specifically link this warning to the "Putin's ceasefire" narrative, highlighting the perceived hypocrisy of any declared truce amidst ongoing threats.
• Russian Military Blogger Claims Repelled Ukrainian Attack Near Chasiv Yar: Colonelcassad shares a video and commentary claiming that fighters of the "Dobrokor" volunteer corps thwarted a Ukrainian offensive attempt on one of the sections of the Chasiv Yar direction overnight, despite the declared ceasefire. They report that Ukrainian armored vehicles were detected by UAVs and engaged by artillery, then finished off by strike drones, indicating continued fighting on this axis. However, the caption notes the footage was taken before the declared ceasefire.
• Lukashenko Calls EU a "Totalitarian Military-Political Bloc": ТАСС reports that Belarusian President Lukashenko, speaking at a parade in Minsk, stated that the European Union has effectively transformed into a totalitarian military-political bloc from a political and economic one. This is a strong statement of opposition to the EU, aligning with Russian rhetoric and highlighting geopolitical tensions.
• Memorial Stand with Photos of Fallen Soldiers in Kopeysk: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares a photo of a memorial stand in Kopeysk with photos of over seventy soldiers who have died in the war. This serves as a poignant reminder of the human cost of the conflict within Russia, and while presented as a memorial, it also implicitly highlights the sacrifices made and can be used to reinforce patriotic sentiment.
• Discussion on Possible 30-Day Ceasefire Proposal and New Sanctions: ТАСС and STERNENKO report on discussions between the US and European allies regarding a new proposal for a 30-day ceasefire. STERNENKO specifically reports that new sanctions are promised if Russia refuses this proposal. TASS quotes White House Press Secretary Caroline Livitt expressing hope that both Russia and Ukraine will agree to Trump's proposal for a 30-day ceasefire. This indicates continued international diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalation, albeit with the potential for increased pressure through sanctions.
• Ukrainian Mobile Fire Group Destroys "Shaheds" Near Kharkiv: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares photos and reports that a mobile fire group of the 228th battalion of the 127th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade in the Kharkiv operational-tactical group destroyed four "Shahed" drones recently. This highlights the ongoing threat of Russian drone attacks in the Kharkiv area and the effectiveness of Ukrainian mobile air defense units in countering them.
• Russian Military Blogger Confirms US Embassy Warning and Anticipates Strikes: Alex Parker Returns shares and comments on the US Embassy warning about a massive missile strike, confirming his expectation of such an attack and framing it in hostile and anticipating terms ("Concert confirmed. They are preparing. All will be good!"). This aligns with the US warning and suggests anticipation of significant Russian aerial activity by pro-Russian sources.
• Victory Day Celebrations in Moscow and Other Locations: Colonelcassad, ТАСС, and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 share videos and photos of Victory Day celebrations, including fireworks in Moscow and a patriotic run in Kaluzhskaya village, Krasnodar Krai. This is part of the widespread Russian commemoration and propaganda efforts around Victory Day.
• Mexican Lawsuit Against Google: РБК-Україна reports that Mexico has filed a lawsuit against Google over the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico. This is an unrelated international legal development.
• Belarusian President Lukashenko and "Interesting Iskanders" at Parade: Alex Parker Returns shares a photo from the Victory Parade in Belarus showing "interesting Iskanders" and prompts viewers to "think." While vague, this could be hinting at potential military developments or messaging related to the Iskander missile system showcased at the parade. Lukashenko's earlier statement on the EU provides broader context to Belarus's geopolitical stance.
• Russian Military Blogger Shares Personal Reflection on Victory Day: Два майора shares a video with a personal reflection on meeting people in Ukraine and Europe who remembered the feat of their great-grandfathers, indicating the continued human and historical dimension of the conflict and its roots in WWII.
• Claimed Russian Advances Near Chasiv Yar, Hryhorivka, and Orekhovo-Vasylivka: Colonelcassad shares maps and commentary depicting claimed advances by Russian units near Chasiv Yar, Hryhorivka, and Orekhovo-Vasylivka, as well as the situation on the Lyman-Kupyansk direction. This indicates claimed Russian ground advances on these axes.
• Hostile Rhetoric from Russian Military Blogger Towards Ukraine and Baltic States: НгП раZVедка shares a post with highly hostile and derogatory language towards Ukrainians, Baltic states, and "other SS bastards" on Victory Day. The post congratulates them on "our ancestors' Victory over their ancestors" and criticizes those who have aligned with "Bandera," stating that those who choose shame over war will get both. This is an extreme example of Russian information operation utilizing aggressive and dehumanizing rhetoric on a symbolic day.
• Bail Posted for Former Head of State Fiscal Service of Ukraine: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that bail has been posted for Roman Nasirov, the former head of the State Fiscal Service of Ukraine, and he has been released from custody. This is an internal Ukrainian legal/political development.
• Russian Military Blogger Fundraising for Drone and Signal Amplifier: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a fundraising request for a "Mavic 3 Pro" drone and an "AvengeAngel" signal amplifier for a soldier named "Tikhiy." This highlights the continued reliance on public donations to equip some Russian military units.
• Reported Tornado or Hurricane in Pavlohrad: РБК-Україна shares video and photos of what is reported to be a tornado or hurricane in Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, causing damage. This is a natural disaster incident, not directly related to the conflict.
• Ukrainian General Staff Reports on Combat Situation (as of 22:00 on May 9th): Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides an operational update for the day, reporting 162 combat engagements. Key points include:
  • Russian Air Strikes and Drone Activity: 22 aviation strikes with 37 guided aerial bombs, 956 kamikaze drones used, and 3234 shellings.
  • Kharkiv Direction: 5 attacks repelled in the Vovchansk area, 2 ongoing engagements.
  • Kupyansk Direction: 2 assaults repelled, 1 ongoing engagement.
  • Lyman Direction: 17 attacks repelled, 2 ongoing engagements.
  • Siversk Direction: 8 assault actions repelled.
  • Kramatorsk Direction: 10 combat engagements, 3 ongoing.
  • Toretsk Direction: 15 attacks, 2 ongoing, main efforts near Dachne, Dyliivka, Shcherbynivka, and Toretsk.
  • Pokrovsk Direction: 51 attempts to break through defense, 6 ongoing engagements. Ukrainian forces reportedly neutralized 96 occupants (54 irreversible losses), destroyed 1 armored combat vehicle, and 3 vehicles.
  • Novopavlivka Direction: 30 enemy attacks, 22 repelled, 8 ongoing engagements.
  • Orikhiv Direction: 4 enemy assaults repelled.
  • Dnipro River Direction: 6 unsuccessful attempts by the enemy to advance.
  • Kursk Direction: 19 attacks repelled, 8 aviation strikes with 13 guided bombs, 283 artillery shellings (1 from MLRS).
  • Units Commended: 47th and 31st Separate Mechanized Brigades, 79th Border Guard Detachment commended for effectively countering enemy pressure.
• Russian Military Blogger Claims Reduced Ukrainian Activity in Tetkino Direction: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА claims that Ukrainian activity on the Tetkino and Novy Put directions has decreased on May 9th after several days of active attacks, suggesting that a Russian strike by the Aerospace Forces on a dam used for transferring forces might have been the reason. They also report a Ukrainian attempt to restore a bridge over a reservoir near a destroyed crossing point around 4 AM, which was reportedly thwarted by Russian forces using a UAV to target a bridge layer and a "Kozak" BMP.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

• Kursk Border Region (including Tetkino, Novy Put'): Ukrainian activity reportedly reduced on May 9th after several days of attacks. Russian military blogger claims a Russian strike on a dam disrupted Ukrainian transfers and that a Ukrainian attempt to restore a bridge was thwarted by UAVs targeting a bridge layer and BMP. Ukrainian General Staff reports 19 attacks repelled, 8 aviation strikes with 13 guided bombs, and 283 artillery shellings (1 from MLRS) in the past day.
• Pokrovsk Direction: Intense ground combat continues with 51 attempts by Russian forces to break through the defense reported by Ukrainian General Staff. 6 engagements are ongoing. Ukrainian forces reportedly neutralized 96 occupants, destroyed 1 armored combat vehicle, and 3 vehicles.
• Novopavlivka Direction: Continued heavy fighting with 30 enemy attacks reported by Ukrainian General Staff. 22 attacks were repelled, 8 are ongoing. Russian sources claimed advances on this direction earlier.
• Kharkiv Direction (including Vovchansk): Ukrainian forces repelled 5 Russian attacks in the Vovchansk area, with 2 engagements ongoing. Russian drone attacks continue in the area, with a Ukrainian mobile fire group destroying 4 "Shaheds." Missile danger announced.
• Donetsk Oblast (including Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Orikhiv): Colonelcassad claims repelled Ukrainian attack near Chasiv Yar (footage potentially from before ceasefire). Ukrainian General Staff reports 10 engagements in the Kramatorsk area (3 ongoing) and 15 attacks in the Toretsk area (2 ongoing), with main Russian efforts near Dachne, Dyliivka, Shcherbynivka, and Toretsk. 17 attacks were repelled on the Lyman direction (2 ongoing). 8 assault actions were repelled on the Siversk direction. 4 enemy assaults were repelled on the Orikhiv direction. Missile danger announced for Donetsk Oblast. Russian sources claim advances near Chasiv Yar, Hryhorivka, and Orekhovo-Vasylivka.
• Across Ukraine: Potential for a significant Russian aerial attack in the coming days, as warned by the US Embassy in Kyiv.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

• Drone Activity: Russian forces used 956 kamikaze drones in the past day according to Ukrainian General Staff. Ukrainian mobile fire group destroyed 4 "Shaheds" near Kharkiv. Russian military blogger fundraising for a drone and signal amplifier. Russian military blogger claims a Ukrainian attempt to restore a bridge was thwarted by UAVs targeting a bridge layer and BMP in the Kursk border region.
• Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Russian forces launched 37 guided aerial bombs in the past day according to Ukrainian General Staff.
• Missile Activity: Missile danger announced for Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. US Embassy in Kyiv warns of a potentially significant Russian aerial attack in the coming days.
• Aviation Activity: Russian forces conducted 22 aviation strikes in the past day according to Ukrainian General Staff. 8 aviation strikes with 13 guided bombs were reported on the Kursk direction.
• Naval Activity: No significant updates in the latest messages.
• Air Defense: Ukrainian mobile fire group destroyed 4 "Shaheds" near Kharkiv.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

• Ukraine-US Relations: US Embassy in Kyiv warns of a potential significant aerial attack. Discussions continue regarding a 30-day ceasefire proposal and potential new sanctions if Russia refuses. White House Press Secretary expresses hope for agreement on Trump's 30-day ceasefire proposal.
• Russia-Belarus Relations: Belarusian President Lukashenko calls the EU a "totalitarian military-political bloc" during a parade. "Interesting Iskanders" reportedly shown at the parade.
• International Efforts for Peace: Discussions continue between the US and European allies regarding a new 30-day ceasefire proposal with potential for new sanctions. White House Press Secretary expresses hope for agreement on Trump's 30-day ceasefire proposal.
• Russia-Brazil Relations: Agreement to restore the High-Level Commission on Cooperation was reported earlier. No new updates.
• Information Operations: Widespread Russian information operations around Victory Day, including patriotic narratives, showcasing military actions, and memorializing fallen soldiers. Hostile rhetoric from Russian military bloggers towards Ukraine and Baltic states on Victory Day. Ukrainian sources are also countering Russian narratives and highlighting their defenders and successful operations. The US Embassy warning about a potential aerial attack is being used to highlight the perceived hypocrisy of any declared Russian ceasefire.
• Internal Ukrainian Politics: Bail posted for former head of State Fiscal Service.

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

• Internal Security: Security incidents in Dagestan were reported earlier. No new updates.
• Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian military blogger claims repelled Ukrainian attack near Chasiv Yar (footage potentially from before ceasefire). Russian military blogger claims reduced Ukrainian activity on the Tetkino direction possibly due to Russian strikes on a dam and successful targeting of a bridge layer and BMP by UAVs. Russian sources claim advances near Chasiv Yar, Hryhorivka, and Orekhovo-Vasylivka. Russian military blogger fundraising for a drone and signal amplifier. Widespread Russian information operations around Victory Day, including showcasing military actions.
• Civilian Casualties: Death of a civilian in Kursk Oblast due to shelling reported earlier.
• Information Control and Censorship: Removal of an actor designated as a "foreign agent" from a state television broadcast reported earlier.
• Military Commemoration and Information Operations: Extensive celebrations and propaganda around the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War, including military parades, salutes, and cultural products like the "Eighty" film. Memorial stands with photos of fallen soldiers are being set up. Hostile rhetoric from Russian military bloggers on Victory Day. Personal reflections on the historical significance of Victory Day are being shared.
• Public Support for the Military: Memorial stands with photos of fallen soldiers can contribute to public support. Russian military blogger fundraising for equipment highlights continued reliance on public support.
• Natural Disasters: Tornado or hurricane reported in Pavlohrad, Ukraine.

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

• Military Support: Russian military blogger fundraising for a drone and signal amplifier.
• Return of Children: Return of nine Ukrainian children from temporarily occupied territories reported earlier.
• Memorialization: Memorial stands with photos of fallen soldiers are being set up in Russia.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

• Russia: Continuing offensive operations on multiple axes. Utilizing aviation, guided bombs, and a large number of kamikaze drones. Employing artillery and MLRS. Russian military blogger claims successful use of UAVs to target Ukrainian equipment in the Kursk border region and near Chasiv Yar. Utilizing extensive information operations and cultural products to support narratives. Showcasing military capabilities at parades.
• Ukraine: Continuing defensive operations. Utilizing mobile air defense units to counter drones. Repelling numerous Russian attacks on various fronts. Conducting SSOs raids on Russian territory. Utilizing drones in counter-infiltration efforts (reported earlier). Commending effective units. Countering Russian information operations.

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

• The persistent high number of combat engagements across numerous fronts, particularly the intensified fighting on the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka axes, indicates that Russia maintains a strong commitment to offensive operations aimed at achieving territorial gains. The Ukrainian General Staff's detailed report on the number of attacks highlights the sustained pressure on Ukrainian defensive lines.
• The warning from the US Embassy about a potential significant Russian aerial attack in the coming days is a critical piece of intelligence, suggesting a likely upcoming escalation in Russian air strikes, which could target key infrastructure and urban centers. This necessitates heightened readiness and defensive measures across Ukraine. The anticipation of these strikes by pro-Russian sources further reinforces this threat assessment.
• The continued fighting in the Kursk border region, despite any informal ceasefire claims, underscores the strategic importance of this area for both sides. Ukrainian attempts to breach Russian defenses and the reported disruption of Ukrainian logistics due to Russian strikes highlight the dynamic and contested nature of cross-border operations.
• The intensified Russian information operations around Victory Day are a significant strategic effort to consolidate domestic support, demoralize Ukraine, and project an image of strength and historical legitimacy for the current conflict. The use of cultural products, prominent figures, and aggressive rhetoric serves to reinforce these narratives. Memorializing fallen soldiers also plays a role in garnering support and emphasizing sacrifice.
• Continued international diplomatic efforts to achieve a ceasefire, as evidenced by the discussions between the US and European allies, highlight the ongoing desire for de-escalation, although the potential for new sanctions indicates a willingness to increase pressure if Russia is not receptive.
• The internal Russian issue of memorializing fallen soldiers underscores the human cost of the conflict within Russia and can be leveraged by both sides in information operations. Fundraising efforts for military equipment also highlight logistical needs and the reliance on public support.
• The strong statement from Belarusian President Lukashenko aligning with Russian rhetoric against the EU further emphasizes the geopolitical divisions and the alignment of Belarus with Russia. Showcasing military capabilities at parades also serves a deterrent and propaganda purpose.
• The reported tornado or hurricane in Pavlohrad, while a natural disaster, could have localized impacts on infrastructure and potentially divert resources for response, although not directly related to the military conflict.

---

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.