Sitrep 2025-05-09 14:41:01

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 9, 2025, 14:40 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment continues to be defined by intense ground combat across multiple sectors, including Kharkiv, Lyman, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, and the Dnipro River direction. The Russian declaration of a "festive ceasefire" for Victory Day is consistently being violated by both sides, with fighting reported in various locations, including border regions. The Kursk border area remains highly active, with Ukrainian attempts to breach Russian defenses reported, and Russian forces claiming to be repelling these efforts. Russian tactical aviation continues to be active, launching guided aerial bombs, particularly targeting Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian drone attacks are also being reported, with claims of effectiveness against Russian logistics and equipment. Civilian casualties continue to be a tragic reality of the ongoing conflict.

Diplomatic and information operations remain significant. EU support for Ukraine's defense capabilities is being bolstered by the allocation of profits from frozen Russian assets for arms procurement. Discussions regarding a special tribunal for the crime of aggression continue to progress, with leaders of 20 out of 27 EU countries reportedly supporting its creation. Russia is heavily emphasizing Victory Day for propaganda purposes, linking the current conflict to historical narratives of victory over Nazism and showcasing military parades and commemorative events across the country, including internationally at their military bases. Allegations of North Korean participation in operations in Kursk Oblast are being promoted by Russian sources, with claims of planned monuments and street names to honor them. Diplomatic engagements surrounding Victory Day include the presence of foreign leaders in Moscow. Ukraine is taking action against individuals under sanctions by blocking their YouTube channels. Ukrainian diaspora is conducting counter-propaganda actions in Europe and America titled "Mortal Regiment" to highlight Russian war crimes. The newly elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has expressed hope for a 30-day ceasefire agreement to be reached this weekend, based on a proposal shared with Russia by the US, UK, France, and Poland. Discussions regarding the resumption of Russian gas supplies to Europe are reportedly taking place between Russia and the US.

Key updates and analysis from the latest messages:

Ukrainian Drone Unit Effectiveness: "Підрозділ Shadow" shares a video showcasing the work of strike drone operators, highlighting successful strikes, described as "delivery of justice." This reinforces the continued and effective use of drones by Ukrainian forces.
Detention of Individuals with Soviet Symbols in Zakarpattia: "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports that police in Zakarpattia Oblast detained a Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate) priest and another individual in the village of Mizhhir'ya for displaying Soviet symbols. A criminal case has been opened. This indicates enforcement of Ukrainian laws against the promotion of communist totalitarian regimes and highlights potential pro-Russian sentiment in certain areas.
Recognition of Rear Services Personnel: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine shares photos and a caption emphasizing the crucial role of rear services personnel, stating, "Without these people, there would be nothing. No rear. No peace. No future." This highlights the importance of logistical and support personnel for the Ukrainian military effort and aims to boost their morale and public recognition.
Monument Restoration Initiative as Soft Power: "Рыбарь" reports on Spanish activists finding and restoring monuments to Soviet soldiers and Spanish anti-fascists in Spain. They frame this as a "soft power" initiative and proof that despite official political stances, people in Europe remember history and universal values. This is an example of Russian-aligned information operations leveraging historical memory and transnational connections.
Zelenskiy Announces Meetings with "Coalition of the Resolute" Leaders: "РБК-Україна" reports that President Zelenskiy announced upcoming meetings with leaders of the "coalition of the resolute" in Ukraine tomorrow. He emphasized the need for a strong coalition to guarantee security and strengthen the existing security architecture. This indicates ongoing high-level diplomatic efforts by Ukraine to solidify international support and coordinate security initiatives.
Russian State Media Highlights "Immortal Regiment" in Mariupol: "ТАСС" shares a video reporting that the "Immortal Regiment" action took place in Mariupol for the first time since the city's "liberation" from the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This is a clear information operation aimed at showcasing the integration of occupied territories into Russian narratives and presenting a picture of returning normalcy under Russian control.
Power Fluctuations in Donetsk: "Mash на Донбассе" reports that subscribers in the Voroshylovsky and Kuybyshevsky districts of Donetsk have experienced voltage fluctuations three times in the past hour. This could indicate issues with the power grid, potentially due to damage or unstable supply, impacting daily life in the occupied city.
Detention of Suspected Hungarian Spies: "РБК-Україна" provides an update on the two individuals previously reported as suspected of working for Hungarian intelligence. The Shevchenkivskyi District Court of Kyiv has ordered their pre-trial detention for 60 days. This confirms formal legal action against individuals suspected of espionage for a NATO and EU member state, highlighting ongoing counter-intelligence efforts and the complex relationship with Hungary.
Russia Confirms Negotiations with US on Gas Supplies to Europe: "ASTRA" reports that Putin's assistant Yuriy Ushakov confirmed that Russia is discussing the potential resumption of Russian gas supplies to Europe with the United States. This confirms previous reports from Reuters and indicates ongoing high-level discussions on energy security and potential economic leverage.
Ukrainian Military Recruitment Efforts: "Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України" (Air Assault Forces of Ukraine) shares a video featuring an 18-year-old recruit from occupied territory who returned to Ukraine to join the 95th Separate Air Assault Brigade. The video highlights his story of returning home to fight for freedom and encourages others to join, emphasizing themes of patriotism and fighting for what is right. This is a clear recruitment and morale-building effort by the Ukrainian military.
German Chancellor Hopes for Weekend Ceasefire Agreement: "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS," "РБК-Україна," and "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" report that the newly elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz expressed hope that a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine will be reached this weekend. He suggests a potential extension of Russia's declared three-day ceasefire to 30 days and the start of peace negotiations during that period. Merz also stated that Germany, along with the US, UK, France, and Poland, have prepared a joint communique with a similar proposal, and the "ball is in Moscow's court." This is a significant diplomatic push for a ceasefire and potential negotiations, highlighting international efforts to find a path to de-escalation.
Ukrainian Assessment of Saransk Fiber Optic Plant Strike (Correction): "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares a brief message ("Дяка за допомогу. Шкода, але будемо сподіватися, що то ненадовго.") along with a photo that appears to be related to a previous report about the Saransk fiber optic plant strike. The caption "Thanks for the help. It's a pity, but let's hope it's not for long" is unclear in its context within this message, but could potentially be a reference to assistance related to the strike or its aftermath.
Russian Military Blogger Reports on Attempted Ukrainian Offensive near Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk): "Colonelcassad" shares a video showing an alleged Ukrainian attempt to advance near Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) in the morning. He claims the objective was to raise a Ukrainian flag on a building for propaganda purposes and that the attempt was repelled. This indicates continued localized ground activity in the Toretsk direction despite the declared ceasefire and highlights the use of symbolic objectives in combat.
Russian Ambassador Claims EU Threats to Serbia are Attack on Sovereignty: "ТАСС" reports that the Russian Ambassador to Serbia stated that EU threats to Serbia regarding President Vucic's visit to Moscow for May 9th are an "attack on the sovereignty of the country." This is a diplomatic statement from Russia aimed at portraying the EU as interfering in Serbian affairs and reinforcing Russia's relationship with Serbia.
Russian Ambassador Claims Serbia-Russia Cooperation Grows Due to Sanctions Refusal: "ТАСС" reports that the Russian Ambassador to Serbia also stated that Serbia's cooperation with Russia is growing because Belgrade refuses to impose sanctions on Moscow. This highlights the economic and political benefits Russia perceives from Serbia's stance on sanctions.
Reported Ukrainian Assaults on Dnipro River Islands in Kherson Oblast: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports that Ukrainian forces have begun assault actions on the islands of Kherson Oblast on the Russian-held bank of the Dnipro River. They state that Ukrainian forces conducted tank shelling overnight before launching the assault. This indicates continued activity and attempts by Ukraine to establish or maintain positions on the islands in the face of Russian defenses.
Zapizhzhia Oblast Energy Resilience Efforts: "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" shares a video and caption detailing efforts to strengthen energy resilience in Zaporizhzhia. They report that a substation was damaged by a recent drone attack, affecting over 20,000 customers, but power was restored quickly. They outline plans to add 130 MW of generation capacity, including building solar power plants on public buildings, to ensure critical infrastructure is powered even in a blackout. This highlights the ongoing efforts to repair and enhance energy infrastructure in Ukraine in the face of Russian attacks.
EU Leaders Support Special Tribunal for Russia: "Alex Parker Returns" reports, citing Reuters, that the leaders of 20 out of 27 EU countries have supported the creation of a tribunal to prosecute the Russian leadership. This indicates strong support for international legal accountability among EU member states.
Russian AI Used to Recreate WWII Announcer: "MoD Russia" shares a video of a speech by prominent Soviet radio announcer Yuri Levitan, stating that Russian-developed AI ("Ippolit" neural network) was used to recreate his image and voice. This is an example of Russia leveraging technology for propaganda and historical narrative purposes related to Victory Day.
Maria Zakharova Claims West "Furious" Because Facts are with Russia: "ТАСС" shares a video of Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova stating that the West is "furious" because "facts and history are on Russia's side." This is a typical Russian narrative aimed at discrediting Western perspectives and asserting the legitimacy of their actions based on their interpretation of history.
New Pope Leo XIV's First Mass: "РБК-Україна" reports on Pope Leo XIV's first mass, where he spoke in English and Italian, hoping the church will be a "lighthouse" and promising to be a "faithful administrator." This is a religious and international news item.
Youth Perspective on Victory Day in Russia: "Басурин о главном" shares a video from "Komsomolskaya Pravda" showcasing how the "young generation sees the Great Victory." This is part of the Russian effort to transmit historical narratives and patriotic values to younger generations within the context of Victory Day.
Fundraising Campaign by Ukrainian Military Blogger: "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" is conducting a fundraising campaign with a raffle of a flag from the 155th Brigade. This highlights ongoing efforts by Ukrainian military bloggers to raise funds for their units.
Return of State Ownership of Rivne Automobile Repair Plant: "Офіс Генерального прокурора" reports that the Rivne District Prosecutor's Office successfully secured the return of the state-owned Rivne Automobile Repair Plant to state ownership after the buyer failed to fulfill the terms of the purchase agreement, including outstanding debts. This is an internal Ukrainian legal and economic development related to the protection of state interests.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Kursk Oblast (Russia) (including Sudzha, Tetkino, Novy Put, Bolshoye Soldatskoye): Continued Ukrainian attempts to breach Russian defenses near Novy Put' and Tetkino, with reports of Ukrainian ground assaults utilizing armored vehicles and infantry. Russian forces claim to have repelled attacks and destroyed Ukrainian equipment, including an IMR, two M-113 BTRs, a Bradley BMP, and a Kozak BBM. Conflicting reports on whether Ukrainian infantry groups were able to penetrate the Russian defenses. Russian claims of 66 strikes by Ukrainian forces on border settlements over the past day. Russian claims of Ukrainian attacks towards Novy Put. Russian officials visited damaged areas and conducted a photo op, drawing criticism from Russian military bloggers. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Два майора)
Pokrovsk Direction: Continues to be a main focal point of intense Russian offensive efforts. Ukrainian General Staff claims partially regaining tactical initiative. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is fundraising for an evacuation vehicle, indicating it remains a "hottest" area. (РБК-Україна, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Novopavlivka Direction: Intense fighting continues. Russian sources provide detailed maps and analysis showing claimed Russian forces advancing, highlighting gains in the areas of Uspenivka, Troitskoye, and Alexeevka. (Z комитет + карта СВО)
Southern Donetsk Direction (Shakhtarsk and Vremivka axes, including Bohodyr, Vilne Pole, Otradne, Fedorivka, Zelenoe Pole, Novopil): Russian forces are claiming expansion of control and tactical advances. Investigation launched into alleged execution of three Ukrainian POWs near Novopil. (Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ASTRA)
Sumy Oblast (Marchykhyna Buda, Bila Bereza, Ulanove, Baranyvka, Kucherivka, Boyaro-Lezhachi, Doroshivka, Sumy suburbs, Bilovody, Loknya, Novy Put area in Kursk Oblast, Sluchevsk in Bryansk Oblast, Tetkino): Suffered from shelling from the territory of the Russian Federation. Areas around Boyaro-Lezhachi and Doroshivka were hit by guided aerial bombs. Russian tactical aviation is launching guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast. Ballistic missile strike on the suburbs of Sumy resulting in three fatalities and eight injuries, including children. Russian claims of destroying a Ukrainian equipment column and a Swedish tank near Bilovody using FPV drones. Reports of mandatory evacuations of two villages near Tetkino. Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity. Detention of a Russian agent by the SBU. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, ASTRA, Два майора)
Kharkiv Direction (including Vovchansk, Vovchanski Khutory, Bereznyky): Continued intense fighting with Russian aerial strikes (7 KABs), drone activity (145 kamikaze drones), and shelling (715 incidents). Eight Russian attacks repelled near Vovchansk and Vovchanski Khutory. Ukrainian forces claim significant Russian losses in personnel (73) and equipment (120 units). Russian strikes using UMPK reported. Russian claims of a Ukrainian assault unit attempting to break through into Belgorod Oblast from the northwest outskirts of Kupyansk district (Kharkiv Oblast) being destroyed. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast (including Kyiv, Vyshgorod, Brovary, White Church, Skvyra, Vasylkiv): Continued Russian drone activity observed over Kyiv in the morning. Previous impacts reported in both Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast. Ukrainian Air Force reports on the movement of enemy UAVs. Russian strikes using Iskander-M and Geran/Gerbera drones reported. (Colonelcassad, Военкор Котенок, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Николаевский Ванёк)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (including Pokrovsk community of the Synelnykivskyi district, Stepove, Shcherbaky, Kamenskoye, Gulyaipole, Malaya Tokmachka, Temirovka, Olgovskoye): Confirmed civilian fatality and 8 injured due to a Russian KAB strike in the Pokrovsk community of the Synelnykivskyi district. Russian forces conducting strikes and drone activity. Russian claims of destroying enemy equipment and personnel and striking energy infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia city. Ukrainian forces continue counterattacks in the areas of Stepove and Shcherbaky. Intense drone and artillery activity. Russian claims of successfully striking enemy targets and using drones. A substation was damaged by a recent drone attack, affecting over 20,000 customers, but power was restored quickly. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Bryansk Oblast (Russia) (including Sluchevsk): Russian claims of 66 strikes by Ukrainian forces on border settlements over the past day. Russian claims of Ukrainian drone attack resulting in a civilian fatality in Sluchevsk. (ASTRA, AV БогомаZ, Два майора)
Saransk (Mordovia, Russia): Ukrainian strike on the fiber optic systems plant, reportedly causing serious damage and potentially impacting the plant's operation. Ukrainian sources highlight the strategic significance of this target. (РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns)
Moscow (Russia) (including Kubinka airbase, Novy Gorodok): Major explosion and fire in a residential building with casualties. Ukrainian drone attack on Kubinka airbase nearby reported. Military aviation activity over Moscow as part of Victory Parade preparations. Russian Ministry of Defense claims destroying two Ukrainian UAVs over the Moscow region. (ASTRA, Оперативный ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, Два майора)
Crimea: Heightened security and military activity due to perceived threats. Russian naval special forces deployed to coastal positions. Ukrainian source mocks a Russian Black Sea Fleet parade, referencing Storm Shadow missiles. (Два майора, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Kleban-Byk: Russian claims of destroying a Ukrainian M113 BTR with a Lancet drone. (Народная милиция ДНР)
Shaikovka Airbase (Kaluga Oblast, Russia): Satellite imagery reportedly shows two fires on the airbase after a Ukrainian strike. Russian Ministry of Defense claims destroying seven Ukrainian UAVs over Kaluga Oblast. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ТАСС, Два майора)
Tula Oblast: Russian Ministry of Defense claims destroying four Ukrainian UAVs over this region. (ТАСС, Два майора)
Minsk (Belarus): General rehearsal for the military parade commemorating Victory in the Great Patriotic War. (Два майора)
St. Petersburg (Russia): Temporary suspension of shopping center operations on May 9th for security. (ТАСС)
Chuvashia (Russia): Transport restrictions and potential mobile internet restrictions on May 9th for security. (ТАСС)
Cherkasy and Smela (Cherkasy Oblast): Russian strikes using Geran/Gerbera drones reported. Ukrainian Air Force reports on the movement of enemy UAVs. (Colonelcassad, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Николаевский Ванёк)
Chernihiv and Chernihiv Oblast: Russian strikes using Geran/Gerbera drones reported. (Colonelcassad)
Zhytomyr and Zhytomyr Oblast: Russian strikes using Geran/Gerbera drones reported. (Colonelcassad)
Donbas (including Konstantinovka, Kramatorsk, Dobropillya, Slovyansk): Russian strikes using UMPK and Geran/Gerbera drones reported. (Colonelcassad)
Konotop (Sumy Oblast): Russian strikes using Iskander-M reported. (Colonelcassad)
Uman area: Ukrainian Air Force reports on the movement of enemy UAVs. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Kremenchuk area: Ukrainian Air Force reports on the movement of enemy UAVs. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Pereyaslav area: Ukrainian Air Force reports on the movement of enemy UAVs. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Yemen (Sana'a): Israeli strikes reported, damaging the airport. Reports about Houthis ceasing attacks (not independently confirmed). (РБК-Україна, Военкор Котенок, Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Donetsk (Occupied Territories) (including Voroshylovsky and Kuybyshevsky districts, Mariupol): Volunteers are distributing St. George ribbons in a shopping center for Victory Day. Eduard Basurin discussed internal narratives. Mash on Donbas used AI to "animate" portraits of WWII veterans from Donbas as part of "Immortal Regiment". WarGonzo reported on youth in Donetsk and Mariupol unfolding a large Victory Banner. Russian sources report that a passenger train arrived at the Donetsk railway station for the first time in 11 years. Russian MoD provides detailed claimed Ukrainian losses in the "Yuzhnaya," "Center," and "Vostok" groupings' areas of responsibility, which cover parts of Donetsk Oblast. Power fluctuations reported in Voroshylovsky and Kuybyshevsky districts. "Immortal Regiment" action took place in Mariupol. (Басурин о главном, Военкор Котенок, Mash на Донbasse, WarGonzo, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Mash на Донбассе, ТАСС)
Rivne Oblast: State ownership of Rivne Automobile Repair Plant returned. (Офіс Генерального прокурора)
Zakarpattia Oblast (Khustskyi Raion, Mizhhir'ya village): Police detained a UOC (MP) priest and another individual for displaying Soviet symbols. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
Spain: Spanish activists are reportedly finding and restoring monuments to Soviet soldiers and Spanish anti-fascists. (Рыбарь)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Increased and widespread Russian drone activity reported across multiple oblasts (Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Bryansk, Kursk, Sumy, Moscow, Kaluga, Tula). Ukrainian General Staff reports 145 kamikaze drones used by Russian forces in the Kharkiv direction alone. Continued Russian drone activity observed over Kyiv. Russian Ministry of Defense claims destruction of Ukrainian artillery and vehicles using Molniya UAVs and FPV drones. Ukrainian drone attack confirmed on a fiber optic systems plant in Saransk. Ukrainian unit requesting a ground drone for operations near Dvorichna. Potential cellular and internet restrictions in Tver and Chuvashia Oblasts due to drone threat. Temporary airport restrictions in Tambov due to a "Kovyor" plan. Ukrainian drone attack on Kubinka airbase near Moscow reported. Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian mortar crew and M113 BTR with Lancet drones. Russian claims of destroying 13 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over Kaluga, Tula, and Moscow regions. Russian claims of Ukrainian drone attack resulting in a civilian fatality in Bryansk Oblast. Oleh Vilkul reports three Russian UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian Air Force reports on the movement of enemy UAVs over various locations. Russian Ministry of Defense reports destroying a Ukrainian Baba Yaga drone in the Orekhov direction and an AFU field artillery gun near Gulyaipole using FPV drones. Ukrainian video from the 3rd Assault Brigade showcases successful drone strikes against Russian vehicles and personnel. Ukrainian source reports a Russian soldier self-denazified (committed suicide) to avoid a second drone drop. "Підрозділ Shadow" showcases successful strike drone operations. A substation in Zaporizhzhia was damaged by a recent drone attack. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, Colonelcassad, Военкор Котенок, MoD Russia, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ТАСС, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, AV БогомаZ, Два майора, Народная милиция ДНР, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Николаевский Ванёк, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Оперативний ЗСУ, Підрозділ Shadow, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)
Ballistic Missile Activity: Ballistic missile strike on the suburbs of Sumy resulting in multiple fatalities and injuries, including children. Russian strikes using Iskander-M missiles reported in Kyiv, Konotop, Dnipropetrovsk, and Synelnykove area. (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, ASTRA, Colonelcassad)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Russian forces utilized 7 KABs in 3 aerial strikes in the Kharkiv direction. Confirmed civilian fatality and injuries in Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to a Russian KAB strike. Russian strikes using UMPK (likely KABs) reported in Sumy, Donbas, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Russian tactical aviation is launching guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Colonelcassad, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Tactical Aviation: Active in the Kharkiv direction, conducting aerial strikes. Russian military aviation activity over Moscow as part of Victory Parade preparations. Russian aviation reportedly involved in strikes across Ukraine. Russian tactical aviation remains active on the northeastern direction, launching guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, Colonelcassad, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Naval Situation: Trump's statement regarding the US ceasing strikes on Houthis is a significant development in the Red Sea, although not independently confirmed. Israeli strikes on Sana'a airport in Yemen suggest continued regional military activity. Russian naval special forces deployed to coastal positions in Crimea. Ukrainian source mocks a Russian Black Sea Fleet parade, referencing Storm Shadow missiles. (Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Военкор Котенок, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Artillery: Ukrainian General Staff reports 715 shelling incidents by Russian forces in the Kharkiv direction. Russian forces reportedly engaged a Ukrainian vehicle near Predtechino with artillery before FPV drone destruction. Russian claims of 66 strikes by Ukrainian forces on border settlements in Bryansk Oblast. Intense artillery fire reported on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian mortar crew with Lancet drone. Russian MoD claims Ukrainian forces conducted 1455 artillery and mortar shellings from May 3rd to 8th. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, MoD Russia, ASTRA, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Народная милиция ДНР, Colonelcassad)
MLRS: Apparent first combat deployment and operation of North Korean 240-mm MLRS M1991 by Russian forces reported. Russian MoD claims Ukrainian forces conducted 23 MLRS attacks from May 3rd to 8th. (Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns, Два майора, Colonelcassad)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Germany: Friedrich Merz has been officially elected as the new Federal Chancellor. Merz hopes for a 30-day ceasefire agreement to be reached this weekend, based on a joint proposal from Germany, US, UK, France, and Poland. (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна)
Russia: Preparations for Victory Day continue, with military parades and symbolic events being highlighted. Russian state media is promoting narratives around being "deceived" by the West and highlighting claimed Russian achievements. Russian state media is also leveraging cultural events like the "Turetsky Choir" performance at the UN to promote their narrative. Ramzan Kadyrov addressed resignation rumors. Russian officials conducted a photo op in damaged areas and faced criticism. Russian authorities engaging in commemorative activities at a regional level. Regional procurement of military medals highlighted. Heightened security measures in major cities and regions for May 9th. Russia confirmed negotiations with the US on the resumption of gas supplies to Europe. Maria Zakharova claims the West is "furious" because facts and history are with Russia. Russian AI is being used to recreate WWII announcer voices and images for propaganda. "Immortal Regiment" action took place in Mariupol. Youth perspective on Victory Day is being showcased. (Басурин о главном, Colonelcassad, WarGonzo, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA, MoD Russia, Два майора, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Kotsnews, ТАСС, Полиция Хабаровского края, Север.Реalii, ASTRA, ТАСС, Mash на Донбассе, Басурин о главном)
Ukraine: Large-scale prisoner exchange resulted in the return of 205 Ukrainian service members. Donetsk Regional Prosecutor's Office and the Ombudsman are investigating alleged execution of Ukrainian POWs. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry calls on countries not to participate in the Moscow Victory Day parade. Ukrainian parliamentary committee supported ratification of a subsoil agreement. New rules for driving exams are being prepared. Increase in the number of millionaires reported. Polish carriers are preparing for a new border blockade. Ukrainian Hryvnia appreciated against the dollar. Regional authorities are providing support for military and civilians. Ukrainian critiques of military leadership raised by a military blogger. Ukrainian commentary on the implications of US envoy's peace proposal. Biden criticizes Trump's strategy on Ukraine. Ukrainian diaspora is conducting "Mortal Regiment" counter-propaganda actions in Europe and Canada. Zelenskiy announced meetings with leaders of the "coalition of the resolute". Police in Zakarpattia detained individuals with Soviet symbols. Return of state ownership of Rivne Automobile Repair Plant. (РБК-Україна, DeepState, ASTRA, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Олександр Вілкул, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Офіс Генерального прокурора)
International Relations: Donald Trump made a statement about the US ceasing strikes on Houthis, claiming their capitulation (not independently confirmed). Reports of halting US military aid to Ukraine without Trump's knowledge. The UK is reportedly preparing for a Russian attack. Petition for Alberta's secession from Canada registered. Israeli strikes on Sana'a, Yemen, damaging the airport. Kotsnews discusses the "Obman" narrative and Russia's achievements in international relations. Kotsnews highlights the "Turetsky Choir" performance at the UN as a diplomatic and information operation. US envoy reportedly states Putin is the main obstacle to a ceasefire. Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns comment on the Indo-Pakistan conflict and its potential links to arms supplies to Ukraine. Leaders of 20 out of 27 EU countries support the creation of a tribunal for Russia. Russia confirmed negotiations with the US on the resumption of gas supplies to Europe. German Chancellor Merz hopes for a 30-day ceasefire agreement based on a joint proposal from Germany, US, UK, France, and Poland. Russian Ambassador claims EU threats to Serbia are an attack on sovereignty and that Serbia-Russia cooperation grows due to sanctions refusal. Spanish activists are reportedly finding and restoring monuments to Soviet soldiers and Spanish anti-fascists. (Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Военкор Котенок, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, Рыбарь)
Information Operations: Russian state media is promoting narratives around Victory Day, being "deceived" by the West, and highlighting claimed military and diplomatic achievements. Russian military bloggers are criticizing Russian officials for a photo op in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian forces are highlighting fallen heroes and their service. Fundraising efforts for military units are being promoted by both sides. Russian sources are claiming successful destruction of Ukrainian equipment. Russian sources are claiming Ukrainian attacks resulting in civilian casualties in border regions. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry is engaging in diplomatic efforts to isolate Russia around Victory Day. Ukrainian General Staff is reporting on successful defense and claimed tactical initiative. Ukrainian regional authorities are providing information on the local situation and humanitarian efforts. Ukrainian diaspora is conducting "Mortal Regiment" counter-propaganda actions. Russian AI is being used for propaganda related to Victory Day. Russian state media is highlighting "Immortal Regiment" actions in occupied territories. Russian military bloggers are showcasing youth perspectives on Victory Day. Spanish activists restoring monuments are highlighted as a "soft power" initiative by Russia. (MoD Russia, Басурин о главном, WarGonzo, Kotsnews, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України, STERNENKO, Два майора, Colonelcassad, MoD Russia, ASTRA, AV БогомаZ, Два майора, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, РБК-Україна, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Рыбарь)

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security Incident: The recent shooting attack in Makhachkala, Dagestan, with confirmed police fatalities, remains a significant internal security concern. Major explosion and fire in a residential building in Moscow with casualties. Ukrainian drone attack on Kubinka airbase near Moscow reported. Heightened security measures in major cities and regions for May 9th. (ASTRA, Оперативный ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, Два майора)
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian military bloggers continue to discuss perceived shortcomings and areas for improvement. Russian Ministry of Defense is reporting on claimed successful drone interceptions and destruction of Ukrainian equipment. Russian units are conducting training exercises. Apparent first combat deployment of North Korean MLRS. Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian mortar crew and M113 BTR with Lancet drones. Russian claims of destroying 13 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over multiple regions. Russian military blogger reports on the pace of advance. Satellite imagery reportedly shows fires at Shaikovka airbase. Russian AI is being used for propaganda related to Victory Day. Russian state media is highlighting "Immortal Regiment" actions in occupied territories. Russian military bloggers are showcasing youth perspectives on Victory Day. (Два майора, Colonelcassad, MoD Russia, Народная милиция ДНР, Сливочный каприз, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, MoD Russia, Mash на Донбассе, Басурин о главном)
Security Measures: Continued interception of Ukrainian drones over Russian territory indicates ongoing security efforts. Heightened security measures in major cities and regions for May 9th, including temporary suspension of shopping centers and potential internet restrictions. Russian naval special forces deployed to coastal positions in Crimea. (ТАСС, Два майора)
Political Dynamics: Ramzan Kadyrov's statement addressing resignation rumors is relevant to internal political dynamics. Russian officials conducting a photo op in damaged areas and facing criticism highlights internal political issues and potential disconnects. Russia confirmed negotiations with the US on the resumption of gas supplies to Europe. Maria Zakharova claims the West is "furious" because facts and history are with Russia. (РБК-Україна, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ASTRA, ТАСС)
Economy: Russian Ministry of Finance has commented on preferential mortgage programs (previous reporting). Russia confirmed negotiations with the US on the resumption of gas supplies to Europe. (ASTRA)
Justice System: A human rights activist was sentenced for "fakes" about the army (previous reporting). Investigation into corruption within the Ministry of Defense. (Два майора)
Military Welfare: Report on Russian contract soldier Viktor Ovchinnikov (previous report). Russian military blogger fundraising for veteran (previous report). Regional procurement of military medals highlighted. (ASTRA, Военкор Котенок, Север.Реalii)
Fire Safety Regulations: Concerns about fire safety regulations hindering drone defense measures for businesses (previous report). (Kotsnews)
Preparation for Victory Day: Showcasing preparations, awarding of badges, and military parades in Russia and Belarus. Heightened security measures implemented. Russian AI is being used for propaganda. "Immortal Regiment" action took place in Mariupol. Youth perspective on Victory Day is being showcased. Spanish activists restoring monuments are highlighted as a "soft power" initiative. (Басурин о главном, Colonelcassad, WarGonzo, Два майора, ТАСС, Полиция Хабаровского края, Север.Реalii, MoD Russia, Mash на Донбассе, Басурин о главном, Рыбарь)
Infrastructure and Services: Power fluctuations reported in Voroshylovsky and Kuybyshevsky districts of Donetsk. (Mash на Донбассе)

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Prisoner Exchange: A large-scale prisoner exchange resulted in the return of 205 Ukrainian service members. (РБК-Україна, DeepState, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Олександр Вілкул)
Military Support: Ukrainian regional authorities are addressing requests from defenders and providing support. Fundraising efforts for military units continue actively on both sides, with specific campaigns for drones and other equipment. Russian units are conducting training exercises. Ukrainian forces are highlighting fallen heroes to maintain morale and remembrance. Apparent first combat deployment of North Korean MLRS by Russian forces. The EU is allocating almost 1.9 billion euros from frozen Russian asset profits for Ukraine's defense, including funds for Ukrainian arms manufacturers, artillery, ammunition, and air defense. Ukrainian Air Assault Forces are conducting recruitment campaigns highlighting patriotic motivation. (Олександр Вілкул, STERNENKO, Два майора, Colonelcassad, MoD Russia, 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України, STERNENKO, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України)
Social Support: Ukrainian regional authorities are providing free food packages to residents and IDPs. Ukrainian government is addressing social support for IDPs, particularly housing (previous reporting).
Medical Support: Returned Ukrainian POWs will receive medical aid and rehabilitation. Discussions on tactical medicine are ongoing (previous reporting).
Post-Conflict Recovery: Efforts to strengthen energy resilience in Zaporizhzhia, including repairing damaged substations and building new generation capacity. Return of state ownership of Rivne Automobile Repair Plant. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Офіс Генерального прокурора)

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Russia: Utilizing ballistic missiles (Iskander-M), Guided Aerial Bombs (UMPK), FPV drones, Lancet drones, artillery, tanks, and potentially North Korean 240-mm MLRS M1991. Employing specific tactics for offensive operations on the Southern Donetsk direction. Conducting training exercises for tank units. Claiming successful use of FPV drones and Lancet drones to target Ukrainian equipment. Implementing increased security measures in response to drone threats. Deploying naval special forces for coastal control in Crimea. Russian military blogger provides data on the pace of advance. Russian AI is being used for propaganda. Russian forces attempted an offensive near Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) with a propaganda objective. Russian forces are reportedly using tanks in shelling positions in Kherson Oblast. (MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Народная милиция ДНР, Два майора, Сливочный каприз, Alex Parker Returns, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Ukraine: Employing air defense systems, F-16s with air-to-air missiles against drones, various military units in defensive and offensive actions. Conducting prisoner exchanges. Implementing administrative changes related to mobilization and social support. Utilizing drones for reconnaissance and potentially targeting within Russia. Investigating alleged war crimes. Using various military units in counterattacks on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Ukrainian Air Force reports on the movement of enemy UAVs. Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade's drone unit showcases successful strikes against Russian logistics and personnel. Ukrainian source reports a Russian soldier committed suicide after a drone attack. Ukrainian diaspora is conducting "Mortal Regiment" counter-propaganda actions. Ukrainian Air Assault Forces are conducting recruitment campaigns. Ukrainian forces are reportedly conducting assault actions on the islands of Kherson Oblast. "Підрозділ Shadow" showcases successful strike drone operations. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, РБК-Україна, DeepState, ASTRA, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Олександр Вілкул, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Николаевский Ванёк, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Оперативний ЗСУ, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Підрозділ Shadow)

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The continued intense fighting in the Kursk border region, despite the declared Russian ceasefire, suggests that both sides view this area as strategically important, potentially for diverting resources, gaining leverage, or disrupting enemy operations. Ukraine's reported continued attacks indicate their willingness to maintain pressure on Russian territory.
The conflicting narratives surrounding the ceasefire observance and the high number of alleged Ukrainian violations claimed by the Russian MoD underscore the ongoing information war. Russia is attempting to control the narrative by portraying Ukraine as the aggressor and justifying any subsequent military actions. This highlights the importance of critical evaluation of information from both sides.
The Russian MoD's claims of territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast, if independently verified, would indicate a continued Russian operational push in the east and contradict the notion of a complete cessation of hostilities. This could alter the strategic landscape and pose challenges for Ukrainian defense.
The EU's decision to allocate significant funds from frozen Russian assets for Ukraine's defense is a crucial strategic development. It provides Ukraine with a dedicated funding source for arms procurement and supports the growth of its domestic defense industry, potentially enhancing its long-term military capabilities and reducing reliance on direct aid from individual countries.
The progress towards establishing a special tribunal for the crime of aggression, with the support of a significant majority of EU leaders, is a significant legal and diplomatic development aimed at holding Russia accountable. This could have long-term strategic implications for international law and relations.
The Russian emphasis on Victory Day propaganda, including linking the current conflict to WWII and promoting alleged North Korean participation in historical events, is a strategic effort to mobilize domestic support, legitimize the conflict, and project an image of international connections, even if based on questionable claims. The use of AI to recreate historical figures for propaganda further highlights the sophistication of these efforts.
The reported potential for a Russian "Oreshnik" missile strike on Lviv, linked to potential Ukrainian "provocations" and the planned gathering of foreign ministers, is a direct and serious strategic threat. It aims to deter Ukrainian actions, intimidate international partners, and potentially disrupt diplomatic efforts.
Ukraine's action to block YouTube channels of sanctioned individuals is part of a broader strategy to counter perceived hostile information and influence operations within its information space.
The Ukrainian diaspora's "Mortal Regiment" counter-propaganda actions represent a strategic effort to challenge Russian narratives on the international stage and highlight alleged Russian war crimes, aiming to influence international public opinion and maintain pressure on Russia.
The meeting with families of missing and captured servicemen highlights the ongoing humanitarian impact of the conflict and the strategic importance of addressing these issues for troop morale and public support.
The Russian MoD's detailed reporting of claimed Ukrainian losses, particularly focusing on Western-supplied equipment, is a strategic communication effort aimed at demonstrating the effectiveness of Russian forces, deterring further Western aid, and potentially influencing public opinion in supporting countries.
The expression of hope for a 30-day ceasefire and peace negotiations by German Chancellor Merz, based on a joint proposal from key Western nations, indicates a potential diplomatic window or a strategic effort to pressure Russia towards de-escalation. The reference to the ball being in Moscow's court suggests a coordinated approach among Western partners.
The confirmation of Russia-US negotiations regarding the resumption of gas supplies to Europe is a significant development with potential economic and geopolitical implications, suggesting possible areas of negotiation beyond the direct military conflict.
The detention of suspected Hungarian spies in Kyiv underscores the complex and multi-layered nature of the conflict, involving not only overt military actions but also clandestine intelligence operations and their impact on international relations.
The reported Ukrainian assault actions on the Dnipro River islands in Kherson Oblast indicate a continued tactical objective to challenge Russian control over these strategically important areas and potentially pose a threat to Russian logistics or defensive lines.
Efforts to strengthen energy resilience in Zaporizhzhia highlight the strategic importance of protecting and enhancing critical infrastructure against ongoing Russian attacks to maintain civilian life and support military operations.
The return of state ownership of the Rivne Automobile Repair Plant, if successfully leveraged, could contribute to Ukraine's defense industrial capacity.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report