Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 9, 2025, 13:40 UTC)

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Updated Situation

The operational environment remains characterized by persistent, intense ground combat across key axes, including Kharkiv, Lyman, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, and the Dnipro River direction. Despite Russian claims of a "festive ceasefire" for Victory Day, reports from both Ukrainian and Russian sources confirm numerous violations and ongoing engagements. The Kursk border region continues to see active fighting and reported Russian counter-attacks against Ukrainian attempts to breach defenses.

Russian aerial activity continues, involving guided aerial bombs and artillery strikes on Ukrainian border settlements. Ukrainian drone attacks are being reported in various locations. Tragically, civilian casualties continue to occur in areas affected by shelling and drone attacks on both sides of the front line.

Diplomatic and information operations remain highly active, with Russia heavily leveraging Victory Day for propaganda purposes, emphasizing historical narratives and linking them to the current conflict. International efforts to hold Russia accountable are progressing, with the EU approving the creation of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression. Diplomatic exchanges and statements from prominent political figures, including Donald Trump, continue to influence the information landscape and discussions about potential peace negotiations. Hungary has expelled two Ukrainian diplomats, citing alleged espionage, a move Ukraine views as a response to its own counter-espionage efforts.

Humanitarian issues and the treatment of prisoners of war remain significant concerns, with reports of families seeking information on missing personnel. Internal issues within both Ukraine and Russia continue to be reported, including counter-intelligence efforts, alleged corruption, and bureaucratic challenges.

Key updates and analysis from the latest messages:

• Continued Intense Ground Combat on Multiple Fronts: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a total of 80 combat engagements since the beginning of the day. This indicates widespread and intense fighting across multiple sectors despite Russia's declared ceasefire.
  • Kharkiv Direction: Ukrainian defenders are repelling two attacks by the aggressor in the area of Vovchansk, with fighting ongoing.
  • Lyman Direction: The aggressor army attacked nine times near Lypove and in the direction of Hrekivka, Novyi Myr, and Zelena Dolyna. One engagement is still ongoing. Russian sources claim advances near Torske, Yampolivka, and Terny.
  • Kramatorsk Direction: Ukrainian defenders repelled three attempts by the occupiers to advance in the areas of Chasiv Yar, Bila Hora, and Kurdiumivka. Four more engagements are ongoing.
  • Toretsk Direction: The enemy attacked 10 times in the areas of Dachne, Dyliivka, Shcherbynivka, and Toretsk. Five battles are still ongoing. Ukrainian forces from the 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade are reportedly showing the only "Victory parade" the occupiers deserve in this direction through military action. Russian sources report active combat near Horlivka and damaged Ukrainian equipment in the center of Dzerzhinsk (part of Toretsk municipality), claiming a repelled Ukrainian attack.
  • Pokrovsk Direction: Since the beginning of the day, the occupiers have made 18 attempts to push back Ukrainian defenders in the areas of Oleksandropil, Novotoretske, Promin, Yelyzavetivka, Dachenkse, Zvirove, Udachne, Kotliarivka, and in the direction of Novomykolaivka and Troitske. Defense Forces have repelled 13 attacks, and five engagements are still ongoing.
  • Novopavlivka Direction: The enemy attacked 18 times near Bohoiatyr, Kostiantynopil, Otradne, Rivnopil, Novosilka, Vilne Pole, Pryvilne, and in the direction of Novopil, Zelene Pole. Eleven engagements are ongoing.
  • Orikhiv Direction: Ukrainian defenders repelled two enemy assaults in the areas of Mali Shcherbaky and Shcherbaky.
  • Dnipro River Direction: The enemy made four attempts to advance, with fighting continuing in three locations.
  • Kupiansk, Siversk, and Huliaipole Directions: The aggressor has not conducted active offensive actions.
  • Kursk Direction: Ukrainian defenders repelled three Russian attacks, and four engagements are ongoing.
  • Other Fronts: The situation has not undergone significant changes. Russian sources claim advances near Verkhnokamyanske and Hryhorivka (near Bilohorivka).
• Continued Shelling and Guided Aerial Bomb Attacks on Border Regions: The General Staff reports that border settlements have suffered from cynical shelling from the territory of the Russian Federation, including Arkhypivka and Mykolaivka in Chernihiv Oblast, and Marchykhyna Buda, Bila Bereza, Ulanove, Baranyvka, and Kucherivka in Sumy Oblast. Additionally, areas around Boyaro-Lezhachi and Doroshivka in Sumy Oblast were hit by guided aerial bombs. Since the beginning of the day, the enemy has carried out 5 airstrikes, dropped a total of nine guided aerial bombs on Ukrainian positions and settlements, and conducted 153 artillery shellings. This indicates a continued pattern of cross-border attacks targeting civilian areas and military positions. Russian sources also report 66 Ukrainian strikes on settlements in Bryansk Oblast in the past day despite a declared Russian ceasefire.
• Prisoner of War and Missing Personnel Situation: Ukrainian media reports that the Shevchenkivskyi Court of Kyiv has chosen a pre-trial detention measure of 60 days for one of the suspects in espionage for Hungary, starting from May 8th. This highlights ongoing counter-intelligence efforts by Ukraine and has led to a reciprocal action from Hungary. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War held a meeting with families of servicemen from military units A4718, A4980, A0284 who went missing in the Klishchiivka direction in 2024, discussing statistics, processing of testimonies from released prisoners, identification of fallen soldiers, and communication with authorities. This underscores the ongoing efforts to address the issue of missing and captured personnel and the concerns of their families. Russian sources highlight the fate of personnel on Snake Island in 2022 and acknowledge Russian losses in that engagement.
• Increased Diplomatic Tension with Hungary: Hungary has expelled two Ukrainian diplomats, accusing them of espionage, a move the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has called a "response" to Ukraine's detention of a suspect in espionage for Hungary. Ukraine views this as an unfriendly step and highlights the ongoing tensions between the two countries.
• Victory Day Commemorations and Propaganda in Russia: Russian sources continue to heavily emphasize Victory Day celebrations and narratives.
  • TASS reports that commanders of North Korean units that allegedly participated in the liberation of Kursk Oblast were present at the Moscow parade. This is a significant claim, requiring verification, and aims to highlight perceived international support and historical parallels. Colonelcassad reiterates this claim, stating these were the officers Putin shook hands with and that monuments will be erected in Kursk Oblast to North Korean participants, with streets named after them.
  • Peskov stated that many leaders came to Moscow for May 9th despite pressure and called the arrival of Vucic and Fico an act of heroism. This narrative aims to counter perceptions of Russia's international isolation and portray support for attending the parade as a courageous act.
  • Eduard Basurin discussed the "Heroes of the DPR" being in the ranks and how to respond to provocations on Victory Day. He also touched on the rewriting of history by "allies" and "non-Russian soft power." This highlights internal Russian narratives and justifications for the conflict.
  • A reception hosted by Putin for foreign delegations at the Granovitaya Palace underscored the narrative of solidarity with allies and the enduring significance of Victory Day values.
  • Kadyrov visited a cemetery to honor fallen Chechen figures, linking their sacrifice to peace and prosperity in Chechnya. This highlights the continued role of Chechnya in supporting the Russian war effort and the emphasis on memorialization and religious narratives within this context.
  • Rybar notes that the US Embassy in Russia congratulated the Russian people on Victory Day, a change from previous years, suggesting a shift in public rhetoric and potential for future cooperation.
  • TASS reports Putin and Trump exchanged Victory Day greetings through assistants, highlighting potential diplomatic connections.
  • Russian military blogger "Two Mayors" posted a video from Bobrava, Kursk Oblast, featuring marine infantry from the Caspian Flotilla, emphasizing commemoration.
  • Russian volunteer detachments "Fakel" and "Livadiya" issued Victory Day greetings.
  • TASS shares a video of a veteran of the Siege of Leningrad explaining the importance of continuing Victory Day parades. This reinforces the intergenerational link and the perceived importance of the holiday.
  • Russian military bloggers are sharing videos of military units (artillery, airborne) congratulating on Victory Day. The 137th Guards Airborne Regiment is shown congratulating.
  • The Governor of Bryansk Oblast reports on awarding commemorative medals to participants of the Victory Day parade in the region, emphasizing the transfer of historical memory. He also delivered a Victory Day address linking the current conflict to WWII and mentioning various Russian security forces involved.
  • Russian state media and military bloggers continue to share content linking the current conflict to the historical victory over Nazism. Medvedev stated Russia is ready to crush "Nazis" again and claimed speedy victory. Mash on Donbas used AI to "animate" portraits of WWII veterans from Donbas as part of "Immortal Regiment". WarGonzo reported on a "Immortal Regiment" action in Kharkiv. WarGonzo also reported on youth in Donetsk and Mariupol unfolding a large Victory Banner. Russian MoD shared photos of a Victory Parade at the 201st Russian military base in Tajikistan.
  • Russian military bloggers are promoting new songs related to the conflict and Victory Day.
• Continued International Support for Ukraine and Accountability Efforts:
  • The UK has imposed its largest package of sanctions since the invasion, targeting at least 100 oil tankers in Russia's "shadow fleet." This is a significant escalation in financial pressure aimed at impacting Russia's oil revenues and its ability to export oil by sea.
  • The head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, commented on the possibility of the special tribunal's decisions being reached in 2026 and the potential for заочно (in absentia) convictions. This indicates continued progress in the international effort to hold Russia accountable for the crime of aggression. Kallas also commented on Hungary's veto on Ukraine's EU accession, stating that Plan B and C are being prepared.
  • Zelenskiy participated in a meeting with the Joint Expeditionary Force format countries (UK, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Ukraine), discussing achieving a ceasefire and reinforced sanctions. This underscores Ukraine's continued diplomatic and military engagement with its Western partners.
  • France will reportedly use profits from frozen Russian assets for the technical maintenance of CAESAR self-propelled howitzers supplied to Ukraine. This is a concrete example of how frozen assets are being leveraged for military support to Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian diplomat Andrii Sybiha stated that EU countries have committed to providing Ukraine with at least 1.35 million shells by the end of the year, with work ongoing to increase this number. This highlights continued military aid commitments.
• Continued Russian Naval Activity in the Black Sea: RBC-Ukraine reports 3 Russian missile carriers present in the Black Sea with a total potential salvo of up to 14 "Kalibr" missiles, posing an increased threat. This indicates a continued Russian naval presence and the potential for missile strikes from the sea. Ukrainian GUR reportedly showcased unmanned boats capable of carrying drones and weapons, highlighting Ukraine's development of naval drone capabilities.
• Information Operations Regarding International Perceptions: TASS highlights international media coverage (El País) suggesting Vladimir Putin is "not alone," citing the presence of foreign leaders at the Moscow parade. This is an information operation aimed at portraying Russia as having international support despite the ongoing conflict. A Finnish source commented sarcastically on "Moominland Nazi media" being surprised by something, likely related to the conflict and Finland's stance. Russian military bloggers report on an incident in Haifa, Israel, where a pro-Ukrainian provocateur at an "Immortal Regiment" event was pushed into a fountain, framing it as participants reacting negatively to anti-Russian sentiment.
• Internal Russian Discussions and Narratives: Eduard Basurin's comments touch on internal narratives within the DPR and Russia, including the concept of "non-Russian soft power" and the impact of the Odesa fire, reflecting internal political and ideological discussions. A Russian military blogger discusses a tweet speculating about a Red Square parade and linking it to Zelenskyy, highlighting the use of social media for political commentary and speculation. Russian state media reports on discussions between Russia and the US regarding gas supplies to Europe, indicating ongoing, albeit limited, diplomatic exchanges on certain topics. Russian military bloggers are promoting fundraising efforts for military units. A Russian military blogger discussed the completion of the investigation into Lieutenant General Yuri Kuznetsov for corruption, highlighting internal legal processes. Kotsnews raised concerns that fire safety regulations hinder businesses from implementing drone defense measures. A Russian military blogger reflected on the causes of the current conflict. AV Bogomaz highlighted the importance of historical memory and announced a museum complex dedicated to victims of a Nazi concentration camp in Bryansk.
• Russian Military Culture and Commemoration: Russian sources are emphasizing military personnel participating in Victory Day parades and celebrating veterans.
• Ukrainian Military Culture and Commemoration: Ukrainian sources highlight the faces of defenders from the 406th Separate Artillery Brigade. Ukrainian drone operators are reportedly setting a world record for launching occupiers through birch trees, suggesting successful drone strikes and a morale-boosting narrative. The 3rd Assault Brigade reportedly used drones to destroy Russian vehicles and personnel, including trucks, a "loaf" van, infantry, mortar crews, and artillerymen.
• Potential Russian Advance on Krasnoliman Direction: A Russian source (Z комитет + карта СВО) claims that Russian Armed Forces are advancing on the Krasnoliman direction near Makeevka, Novomykhailivka, Novoye, Redkodub, and Kamenka. This claim needs to be verified with other sources. Another claim of advances near Torske, Yampolivka, and Terny.
• Resumption of Rail Service to Donetsk: Russian sources report that a passenger train arrived at the Donetsk railway station for the first time in 11 years, symbolizing a return to normalcy in occupied territories. This is likely an information operation highlighting stabilization under Russian control.
• Russian Military Activity in Tajikistan: Russian MoD showed a Victory Parade at the 201st Russian military base in Tajikistan. This indicates continued Russian military presence and activities in Central Asia.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

• Kharkiv Oblast (Vovchansk): Ukrainian defenders are repelling two attacks by the aggressor in the area of Vovchansk, with fighting ongoing. Shelling from the territory of the Russian Federation continues.
• Chernihiv Oblast (Arkhypivka, Mykolaivka): Suffered from shelling from the territory of the Russian Federation.
• Sumy Oblast (Marchykhyna Buda, Bila Bereza, Ulanove, Baranyvka, Kucherivka, Boyaro-Lezhachi, Doroshivka): Suffered from shelling from the territory of the Russian Federation. Areas around Boyaro-Lezhachi and Doroshivka were hit by guided aerial bombs.
• Bryansk Oblast (Russia): Russian Governor reported on awarding commemorative medals at the Victory Day parade and delivered a Victory Day address. Russian sources report 66 Ukrainian strikes on settlements in the past day despite a declared Russian ceasefire.
• Kursk Oblast (Russia): Ukrainian defenders repelled three Russian attacks, with four engagements ongoing. TASS and Colonelcassad claim commanders of North Korean units that participated in the liberation of Kursk Oblast were present at the Moscow parade and that monuments and street names will honor them. Russian military blogger "Two Mayors" posted a video from Bobrava, featuring marine infantry from the Caspian Flotilla, suggesting their presence. WarGonzo mentioned the film location of a new song for the "Soldier" track by Lube, Sanchez, and Yopt as Kursk Oblast.
• Lyman Direction (Lypove, Hrekivka, Novyi Myr, Zelena Dolyna): The aggressor army attacked nine times, with one engagement still ongoing. Russian sources claim advances on the Krasnoliman direction near Makeevka, Novomykhailivka, Novoye, Redkodub, and Kamenka. Russian sources also claim advances near Torske, Yampolivka, and Terny.
• Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar, Bila Hora, Kurdiumivka): Ukrainian defenders repelled three attempts by the occupiers to advance, with four more engagements ongoing.
• Toretsk Direction (Dachne, Dyliivka, Shcherbynivka, Toretsk): The enemy attacked 10 times, with five battles still ongoing. Ukrainian forces from the 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade are reportedly showing the only "Victory parade" the occupiers deserve in this direction through military action. Russian sources report active combat near Horlivka and damaged Ukrainian equipment in the center of Dzerzhinsk (part of Toretsk municipality), claiming a repelled Ukrainian attack.
• Pokrovsk Direction (Oleksandropil, Novotoretske, Promin, Yelyzavetivka, Dachenkse, Zvirove, Udachne, Kotliarivka, Novomykolaivka, Troitske): Occupiers made 18 attempts to push back Ukrainian defenders, repelled 13 attacks, with five engagements still ongoing.
• Novopavlivka Direction (Bohoiatyr, Kostiantynopil, Otradne, Rivnopil, Novosilka, Vilne Pole, Pryvilne, Novopil, Zelene Pole): The enemy attacked 18 times, with eleven engagements continuing.
• Orikhiv Direction (Mali Shcherbaky, Shcherbaky): Ukrainian defenders repelled two enemy assaults.
• Dnipro River Direction: The enemy made four attempts to advance, with fighting continuing in three locations.
• Kupiansk, Siversk, and Huliaipole Directions: Aggressor not conducting active offensive actions. Russian sources claim advances near Verkhnokamyanske and Hryhorivka (near Bilohorivka).
• Black Sea: 3 Russian missile carriers are present with a total potential salvo of up to 14 "Kalibr" missiles, posing an increased threat. The UK's sanctions on Russia's "shadow fleet" target oil tankers operating here. Ukrainian GUR reportedly showcased unmanned boats capable of carrying drones and weapons.
• Donetsk (Occupied Territories): Volunteers are distributing St. George ribbons in a shopping center for Victory Day. Eduard Basurin discussed internal narratives. Mash on Donbas used AI to "animate" portraits of WWII veterans from Donbas as part of "Immortal Regiment". WarGonzo reported on youth in Donetsk and Mariupol unfolding a large Victory Banner. Russian sources report that a passenger train arrived at the Donetsk railway station for the first time in 11 years.
• Moscow (Russia): Victory Day parade took place. Putin hosted a reception for foreign delegations. TASS reports commanders of North Korean units were present. Peskov commented on the presence of foreign leaders. Russian state media is promoting Victory Day narratives. Discussions about gas supplies to Europe are taking place with the US. TASS reports on the presence of the Victory Banner, Russian flag, and Moscow flag at the Serbian Embassy. TASS reports Putin met with the President of Brazil. Russian military blogger "Two Mayors" posted a video featuring marine infantry from the Caspian Flotilla.
• Kyiv (Ukraine): Shevchenkivskyi Court has chosen a pre-trial detention measure for a suspect in espionage for Hungary. Center of Kyiv was to be blocked for foreign delegations.
• Budapest (Hungary): Hungary has expelled two Ukrainian diplomats.
• Berlin (Germany): Russian Ambassador laid flowers at the memorial in Treptow Park. "Immortal Regiment" march took place. A musician playing the USSR anthem was detained. Alex Parker shared a video of someone playing the USSR anthem.
• Chechnya (Grozny, Akhmat-Yurt): Kadyrov visited a cemetery to honor fallen Chechen figures and is opening a new mosque.
• Tajikistan: Russian MoD showed a Victory Parade at the 201st Russian military base.
• Donbas (Klishchiivka direction): The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War held a meeting with families of servicemen who went missing in this direction in 2024.
• Krasnoliman Direction (Makeevka, Novomykhailivka, Novoye, Redkodub, Kamenka, Torske, Yampolivka, Terny): Russian sources claim Russian Armed Forces are advancing.
• Horlivka (part of Toretsk municipality): Russian sources report active combat and damaged Ukrainian equipment.
• Dzerzhinsk (part of Toretsk municipality): Russian sources report damaged Ukrainian equipment in the city center, claiming a repelled Ukrainian attack.
• Haifa (Israel): Russian military bloggers report on an incident at an "Immortal Regiment" event.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

• Drone Activity: Shelling and attacks from the territory of the Russian Federation persist. Ukrainian drone operators are reportedly setting a world record for launching occupiers through birch trees, suggesting successful drone strikes. Ukrainian border guards unit "Phoenix" reportedly destroyed Russian logistics, including 9 trucks and other vehicles, using drones in Belgorod Oblast. Ukrainian unit "Azov" of the National Guard reportedly used FPV drones to destroy 54 Russian communication systems, repeaters, and an "Orlan" UAV launch site. A Finnish source repeats a Russian claim of a Ukrainian drone attack on a government building in Belgorod. Russian military bloggers are conducting fundraising efforts for drones. The 3rd Assault Brigade reportedly used drones to destroy Russian vehicles and personnel, including trucks, a "loaf" van, infantry, mortar crews, and artillerymen. Ukrainian GUR reportedly showcased unmanned boats capable of carrying drones and weapons, highlighting Ukraine's development of naval drone capabilities. Russian sources report 66 Ukrainian strikes on settlements in Bryansk Oblast in the past day, likely including drone attacks.
• Artillery and MLRS Activity: Shelling from the territory of the Russian Federation continues to impact border settlements. The enemy has conducted 153 artillery shellings since the beginning of the day. Ukrainian 406th Separate Artillery Brigade of the Southern Defense Forces is highlighted. Russian sources report 66 Ukrainian strikes on settlements in Bryansk Oblast in the past day, including artillery. Russian sources report "Vostok Group's" Grad MLRS crews thwarted a Ukrainian Armed Forces rotation in the South Donetsk direction.
• Naval Activity: RBC-Ukraine reports 3 Russian missile carriers present in the Black Sea with a total potential salvo of up to 14 "Kalibr" missiles, posing an increased threat. The UK has imposed its largest package of sanctions since the invasion, targeting at least 100 oil tankers in Russia's "shadow fleet," responsible for transporting over $24 billion worth of cargo since the beginning of 2024. Ukrainian GUR reportedly showcased unmanned boats capable of carrying drones and weapons, highlighting Ukraine's development of naval drone capabilities.
• Aviation: The enemy has carried out 5 airstrikes and dropped a total of nine guided aerial bombs on Ukrainian positions and settlements since the beginning of the day. Guided aerial bombs (KABs) were launched towards Sumy Oblast.
• Missile Activity: RBC-Ukraine reports 3 Russian missile carriers present in the Black Sea with a total potential salvo of up to 14 "Kalibr" missiles, posing an increased threat. Russian sources report 66 Ukrainian strikes on settlements in Bryansk Oblast in the past day, likely including missile attacks.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

• Victory Day Narratives: Russia continues to heavily leverage Victory Day for internal and external propaganda, linking it to the current conflict and the fight against "modern Nazism." Events like the "Immortal Regiment" processions are being highlighted. Footage from the Moscow parade is being used to showcase military personnel who have participated in the "special military operation." Educational institutions in occupied territories are also participating in patriotic events and commemorating Victory Day. Russian military blogger reflects on the causes of the current conflict. TASS reports that Vladimir Putin presented the President of Kazakhstan with an award sheet for his father. Russian state media highlights international media coverage suggesting Putin is "not alone," citing the presence of foreign leaders at the Moscow parade, including claimed commanders of North Korean units. TASS reports Putin and Trump exchanged Victory Day greetings through assistants. Peskov emphasized that many leaders, including Vucic and Fico, came to Moscow despite pressure, framing their attendance as an act of heroism. Eduard Basurin discussed responding to provocations on Victory Day, the rewriting of history by "allies," "non-Russian soft power," and the impact of the Odesa fire. A reception hosted by Putin for foreign delegations underscored the narrative of solidarity with allies and the enduring significance of Victory Day values. Rybar notes the US Embassy in Russia congratulated the Russian people on Victory Day, indicating a shift in public rhetoric. Kadyrov honored fallen Chechen figures and opened a mosque named after them, linking their sacrifice to the current efforts. A Russian military blogger discusses a tweet speculating about a Red Square parade and linking it to Zelenskyy. Volunteers in Donetsk are distributing St. George ribbons. A veteran of the Siege of Leningrad explained the importance of continuing Victory Day parades. Military units are issuing Victory Day greetings. The Governor of Bryansk Oblast is awarding commemorative medals at the Victory Day parade and delivered a Victory Day address. Russian state media and military bloggers continue to share content linking the current conflict to the historical victory over Nazism. Medvedev stated Russia is ready to crush "Nazis" again and claimed speedy victory. Mash on Donbas used AI to "animate" portraits of WWII veterans from Donbas as part of "Immortal Regiment". WarGonzo reported on a "Immortal Regiment" action in Kharkiv. WarGonzo also reported on youth in Donetsk and Mariupol unfolding a large Victory Banner. Russian MoD shared photos of a Victory Parade at the 201st Russian military base in Tajikistan. Russian military bloggers are promoting new songs related to the conflict and Victory Day. Russian military bloggers report on an incident in Haifa, Israel, where a pro-Ukrainian provocateur at an "Immortal Regiment" event was pushed into a fountain.
• Special Tribunal for Russia: EU Foreign Ministers have approved the creation of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Russia. The head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, commented on the possibility of the special tribunal's decisions being reached in 2026 and the potential for заочно (in absentia) convictions.
• EU-Ukraine Relations: EU Foreign Ministers have approved the creation of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Russia. An agreement was signed in Lviv on channeling a tranche of profits from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine for arms procurement from EU countries, specifically from Denmark, France, and Italy, aiming to activate Ukraine's defense industry. France will reportedly use profits from frozen Russian assets for the technical maintenance of CAESAR self-propelled howitzers supplied to Ukraine. Ukrainian diplomat Andrii Sybiha stated that EU countries have committed to providing Ukraine with at least 1.35 million shells by the end of the year. Kaja Kallas commented on Hungary's veto on Ukraine's EU accession, stating that Plan B and C are being prepared.
• Sanctions: The UK has imposed its largest package of sanctions since the invasion, targeting at least 100 oil tankers in Russia's "shadow fleet."
• International Perceptions of Russia: Russian state media highlights international media coverage suggesting Putin is "not alone," citing the presence of foreign leaders at the Moscow parade. Peskov emphasized that many leaders, including Vucic and Fico, came to Moscow despite pressure. Rybar notes the US Embassy in Russia congratulated the Russian people on Victory Day.
• US-Russia Relations: TASS reports Putin and Trump exchanged Victory Day greetings through assistants, highlighting potential diplomatic connections. Rybar notes the US Embassy in Russia congratulated the Russian people on Victory Day, indicating a shift in public rhetoric and potential for future cooperation. Russian state media reports on discussions between Russia and the US regarding gas supplies to Europe.
• Kazakhstan-Russia Relations: TASS reports that Vladimir Putin presented the President of Kazakhstan with an award sheet for his father, leveraging historical connections for diplomatic purposes.
• Joint Expeditionary Force: Zelenskiy participated in a meeting with the Joint Expeditionary Force format countries (UK, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Ukraine), discussing achieving a ceasefire and reinforced sanctions. A Finnish source commented sarcastically on "Moominland Nazi media" being surprised by something, likely related to the conflict and Finland's stance as a JEF member.
• Serbia and Slovakia: Peskov called the arrival of Serbian President Vucic and Slovak Prime Minister Fico in Moscow for Victory Day an act of heroism. A Slovak MEP stated that the decision of the Baltic states to close air space for Fico traveling to Moscow contradicts EU norms.
• Moldova: Eduard Basurin discussed "allies" in the "underbelly" rewriting history, potentially referencing Moldova.
• North Korea-Russia Relations: TASS and Colonelcassad claim commanders of North Korean units that participated in the liberation of Kursk Oblast were at the Moscow parade and that monuments and street names will honor them.
• Hungary-Ukraine Relations: Hungary has expelled two Ukrainian diplomats, accusing them of espionage. Ukraine views this as an unfriendly step and a response to its own counter-espionage efforts. Kaja Kallas commented on Hungary's veto on Ukraine's EU accession, stating that Plan B and C are being prepared.
• Brazil-Russia Relations: Putin met with the President of Brazil in the Kremlin. TASS reported on the meeting, highlighting the symbolic return to joint plans and Brazil's focus on comprehensive cooperation.
• Uzbekistan-EU Relations: Rybar reported on new EU-funded civil society projects in Uzbekistan, interpreting it as deeper EU engagement in Central Asia.

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

• Information Operations: Russian military bloggers are emphasizing the historical significance of Victory Day, linking it to the current conflict and the fight against "modern Nazism." Events like the "Immortal Regiment" processions are being highlighted. Footage from the Moscow parade is being used to showcase military personnel who have participated in the "special military operation." Educational institutions in occupied territories are also participating in patriotic events and commemorating Victory Day. Russian military blogger reflects on the causes of the current conflict, providing an internal, critical perspective. Russian state media highlights international media coverage suggesting Putin is "not alone." TASS reports Putin and Trump exchanged Victory Day greetings through assistants. Peskov emphasized that many leaders, including Vucic and Fico, came to Moscow despite pressure. Eduard Basurin discussed responding to provocations on Victory Day, the rewriting of history by "allies," "non-Russian soft power," and the impact of the Odesa fire. A reception hosted by Putin for foreign delegations underscored the narrative of solidarity with allies and the enduring significance of Victory Day values. Rybar notes the US Embassy in Russia congratulated the Russian people on Victory Day. Kadyrov honored fallen Chechen figures and opened a mosque named after them, linking their sacrifice to the current efforts. A Russian military blogger discusses a tweet speculating about a Red Square parade and linking it to Zelenskyy. Volunteers in Donetsk are distributing St. George ribbons. A veteran of the Siege of Leningrad explained the importance of continuing Victory Day parades. Military units are issuing Victory Day greetings. The Governor of Bryansk Oblast is awarding commemorative medals at the Victory Day parade and delivered a Victory Day address. Russian state media and military bloggers continue to share content linking the current conflict to the historical victory over Nazism. Medvedev stated Russia is ready to crush "Nazis" again and claimed speedy victory. Mash on Donbas used AI to "animate" portraits of WWII veterans from Donbas as part of "Immortal Regiment". WarGonzo reported on a "Immortal Regiment" action in Kharkiv. WarGonzo also reported on youth in Donetsk and Mariupol unfolding a large Victory Banner. Russian MoD shared photos of a Victory Parade at the 201st Russian military base in Tajikistan. Russian military bloggers are promoting new songs related to the conflict and Victory Day. Russian military bloggers report on an incident in Haifa, Israel, where a pro-Ukrainian provocateur at an "Immortal Regiment" event was pushed into a fountain. Rybar has launched a website and initiative to catalog Victory memorials globally as a "soft power" and cultural influence tool.
• Military Readiness and Propaganda: Footage from the Moscow parade is being used to showcase military personnel who have participated in the "special military operation." Two new Su-34 aircraft participated in the parade in Novosibirsk, indicating continued production and deployment. Victory Day celebrations are taking place in various cities. Eduard Basurin mentioned that all "Heroes of the DPR" are in the ranks. Russian volunteer detachments "Fakel" and "Livadiya" from the Volunteer Corps in the SVO zone issued Victory Day greetings. Russian military blogger "Two Mayors" posted a video featuring marine infantry from the Caspian Flotilla in Bobrava, Kursk Oblast. Military units are issuing Victory Day greetings. The Governor of Bryansk Oblast is awarding commemorative medals at the Victory Day parade. Russian military bloggers are promoting fundraising efforts for military units. Russian sources claim advances on the Krasnoliman direction. Russian sources claim advances near Verkhnokamyanske and Hryhorivka. Russian MoD showed a Victory Parade at the 201st Russian military base in Tajikistan. Russian sources report "Vostok Group's" Grad MLRS crews thwarted a Ukrainian Armed Forces rotation in the South Donetsk direction.
• Security Measures: Temporary traffic restrictions are in place in Moscow, particularly on sections of the MKAD and Volgogradsky Prospekt, starting at 17:00 on May 9th. This indicates heightened security measures related to Victory Day commemorations and potential large-scale events. Kotsnews raised concerns that fire safety regulations hinder businesses from implementing drone defense measures.
• Fundraising and Support: Russian military bloggers are conducting fundraising efforts for drones and other equipment for their units on the front lines. Colonelcassad reports on a collection effort for 200 motorcycles and the successful delivery of 30 vehicles. Alex Parker Returns is fundraising for sniper group "Voron" of the 40th Brigade of the Pacific Fleet, seeking motorcycles, a Niva vehicle, and electronic warfare systems.
• Legal and Repression: Sever.Realii reports that the EU plans to introduce sanctions against 28 Russian judges, prosecutors, and investigators for their alleged involvement in repression and human rights violations. Dva Mayora reported on the completion of the investigation into Lieutenant General Yuri Kuznetsov for bribery.
• Political Diplomacy: TASS reports that Vladimir Putin presented the President of Kazakhstan with an award sheet for his father. TASS reports Putin and Trump exchanged Victory Day greetings through assistants. Peskov emphasized that many leaders, including Vucic and Fico, came to Moscow despite pressure. A reception hosted by Putin for foreign delegations underscored the narrative of solidarity with allies. Russian state media reports on discussions between Russia and the US regarding gas supplies to Europe. Putin met with the President of Brazil in the Kremlin.
• Internal Criticism: A Russian military blogger reflects on the causes of the current conflict, attributing it partly to unlearned lessons and mistakes over the past 30 years.
• Chechnya's Role: Kadyrov's activities honoring fallen fighters and opening a mosque named after them highlight the continued role of Chechnya in supporting the Russian war effort and the emphasis on memorialization and religious narratives within this context.
• Financial Challenges for Independent Media: Astra, identified as an "inoagent" in Russia, is seeking advertising revenue from outside Russia to support its independent reporting on the war. ASTRA also highlights fundraising efforts to pay salaries after a platform blocked their account.
• Internal Discussions: Eduard Basurin's comments touch on internal narratives within the DPR and Russia, including the concept of "non-Russian soft power" and the impact of the Odesa fire.
• Infrastructure and Services: Russian sources reported that a passenger train arrived at the Donetsk railway station for the first time in 11 years.

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

• Financial Support: An agreement was signed in Lviv on channeling frozen Russian asset profits for Ukrainian arms procurement from EU countries, specifically from Denmark, France, and Italy, aiming to activate Ukraine's defense industry. This provides a new avenue for financing Ukraine's defense capabilities. The head of the military administration in Kryvyi Rih reported on significant material assistance provided to residents affected by "enemy attacks," totaling over 622.6 million UAH. France will reportedly use profits from frozen Russian assets for the technical maintenance of CAESAR self-propelled howitzers supplied to Ukraine. Ukrainian diplomat Andrii Sybiha stated that EU countries have committed to providing Ukraine with at least 1.35 million shells by the end of the year. ASTRA highlights fundraising efforts to pay salaries after a platform blocked their account.
• Military Aid: An agreement was signed in Lviv on channeling a tranche of profits from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine for arms procurement from EU countries, specifically from Denmark, France, and Italy, aiming to activate Ukraine's defense industry. France will reportedly use profits from frozen Russian assets for the technical maintenance of CAESAR self-propelled howitzers supplied to Ukraine. Ukrainian diplomat Andrii Sybiha stated that EU countries have committed to providing Ukraine with at least 1.35 million shells by the end of the year.
• Humanitarian Situation: Ukrainian sources highlight ongoing humanitarian support for residents in affected areas of Kharkiv Oblast through humanitarian hubs. The head of the military administration in Kryvyi Rih reported on significant damage to residential buildings from "enemy attacks" and detailed extensive repair and material assistance provided to affected residents. Shelling and attacks from the territory of the Russian Federation continue to impact Ukrainian border settlements. Civilian casualties continue to occur in areas affected by shelling and drone attacks on both sides of the front line. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War held a meeting with families of servicemen who went missing.
• Ukrainian Military Culture and Commemoration: The "Cultural Forces" platform has presented a music album dedicated to Infantry Day, featuring songs by active servicemen. The "Alley of Defenders of Ukraine" has been opened in Kyiv on Infantry Day. Ukrainian sources highlight the faces of defenders from the 406th Separate Artillery Brigade. Ukrainian drone operators are reportedly setting a world record for launching occupiers through birch trees. The 3rd Assault Brigade reportedly used drones to destroy Russian vehicles and personnel.
• Post-Conflict Recovery: The head of the military administration in Kryvyi Rih reported on extensive repair and material assistance provided to residents affected by "enemy attacks," including structural repairs to a damaged residential building, highlighting ongoing recovery efforts for civilian infrastructure. Russian sources reported that a passenger train arrived at the Donetsk railway station for the first time in 11 years, symbolizing a return to normalcy in occupied territories.
• Prisoner Exchange and Support: The Shevchenkivskyi Court of Kyiv has chosen a pre-trial detention measure for a suspect in espionage for Hungary. This highlights ongoing counter-intelligence efforts by Ukraine, which have led to reciprocal actions from Hungary. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War held a meeting with families of servicemen who went missing.
• Russian Support for Personnel and Families: Colonelcassad reports President Putin signed a decree on additional social guarantees for military families. Russian military bloggers are conducting fundraising efforts for drones and other equipment for their units on the front lines. Alex Parker Returns is fundraising for sniper group "Voron" of the 40th Brigade of the Pacific Fleet.

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Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.