Sitrep 2025-05-09 11:11:29

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 9, 2025, 11:10 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational landscape continues to be defined by intense ground combat across multiple axes, particularly in eastern and southern Ukraine. The persistent, high-intensity fighting in the Kursk border region remains a critical area, with Ukraine claiming control of the settlement of Hormal', though this is likely a raid action rather than a full-scale occupation. Russian sources report repelling Ukrainian attempts to breach the border in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts. A significant new development is the alleged participation of North Korean military personnel in combat operations in the Kursk region, directly acknowledged by Russian sources, with a Russian ambassador even suggesting future monuments in their honor. Russia is heavily leveraging Victory Day celebrations for internal and external propaganda, showcasing military hardware and emphasizing historical narratives, with extensive coverage of parades across the country, including the Far East, and rallies in occupied territories. The uncovering of an alleged Hungarian military intelligence network in Zakarpattia Oblast adds a complex internal security dimension. Diplomatic activity continues, with EU foreign ministers meeting in Lviv and new discussions between Russia and China indicating a deepening strategic partnership, though with potential nuances regarding a "just" peace in Ukraine from the Chinese side. EU Foreign Ministers have approved the creation of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Russia. The humanitarian impact of the conflict remains significant, with continued civilian casualties and infrastructure damage reported. Ukraine is actively promoting recruitment into specialized units and highlighting the psychological impact of the conflict on its population. Russia is actively promoting its military veterans and highlighting their return to service. Reports of continued Ukrainian attempts to breach the Russian border in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts persist, met with Russian defensive actions, including the destruction of engineering equipment. The full launch of the Russian electronic subpoena registry across Russia marks a significant development in their mobilization capabilities. Civilian infrastructure in Ukrainian front-line areas, such as Kostiantynivka, continues to be severely impacted by the conflict, leading to the closure of essential services. Victory Day commemorations and associated information operations remain a prominent feature of the information environment on both sides. New information includes reports of a civilian vehicle being hit by an FPV drone in the Zaporizhzhia region, resulting in injuries, continued diplomatic developments regarding sanctions against Russia, and a Ukrainian drone attack on the government building in Belgorod, injuring two people. Lithuania is pushing for new and expanded EU sanctions against Russia.

Key developments include:

Continued Intense Ground Combat and Disregard for Ceasefire: Despite official Russian claims of a ceasefire, heavy ground fighting, shelling, and drone activity persist across numerous sectors, particularly Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Orikhiv, and the Dnipro (Kherson) directions. Ukrainian forces report repelling numerous assaults on each of these axes, with the Pokrovsk direction experiencing the highest number of engagements (71 repelled assaults in the previous reporting period). This reinforces the assessment that the declared ceasefire is largely an information operation. The head of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports over 200 shellings per day and over 620 strikes in the past week, directly contradicting Russian claims of a pause in hostilities. A Russian military blogger explicitly states that their forces continued to engage Ukrainian infantry attempting to advance near Tetkino in the Kursk region, despite the declared ceasefire. The Russian Ministry of Defense also claims 5026 violations of the ceasefire regime by Ukraine since its beginning and that Russian forces are reacting "mirror-like" and will act "adequately to the evolving situation." A Russian military blogger reports that on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, "there is no smell of a truce," with active work by Ukrainian forces reported in Удачное (Udachne) and Котлино (Kotlino), and Russian assault units having advanced near Зверево (Zverevo) and secured positions in Перше Травня (Pershe Travnya) before the ceasefire. This further confirms the continued intensity of combat despite the official ceasefire declaration. Ukrainian forces report repelling mechanized assaults on the Siversk direction, damaging Russian BMPs and tanks. Russian military bloggers report advances on the Southern Donetsk direction, clearing the southern part of Bogatyr and expanding control near Kotlyarivka and Otradne.
Persistent and High-Intensity Activity in Kursk and Belgorod Border Regions: The Kursk and Belgorod border areas remain a focal point of intense fighting and reported Ukrainian cross-border attempts, met with significant Russian resistance. Ukrainian forces report repelling 19 Russian army assaults in the Kursk region in the previous reporting period. Russian aviation is reportedly conducting airstrikes in several settlements of Sumy Oblast, which borders Kursk. This indicates ongoing, high-stakes activity in this border area. Russian sources continue to report heavy losses for Ukrainian forces in this region. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims Ukrainian forces undertook four attempts to breach the Russian state border in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts during the declared ceasefire. Russian sources also report the destruction of a Ukrainian bridge layer near Pavlivka, Sumy Oblast, which they claim was intended to facilitate an advance towards the settlement of Novyi Put, highlighting Ukrainian attempts to breach the border using engineering equipment and Russian counter-efforts using drones. Russian Ministry of Defense also claims 15 Ukrainian attacks and one reconnaissance in force attempt in various settlements in LNR and DNR, in addition to the border breach attempts. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС claims that the Ukrainian flag is flying in the center of Hormal', Kursk Oblast, and that the settlement is under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This claim, if true, would represent a significant, albeit likely temporary, incursion into Russian territory. ASTRA and Север.Реалии report that the deputy governor of Belgorod Oblast and a Rosgvardiya employee were injured in a drone attack on the government building in Belgorod. This attack on a regional administrative center and the injuries to officials highlight the continued vulnerability of Russian border regions to Ukrainian drone attacks, even during declared ceasefires, and underscores the ongoing nature of the conflict in these areas. Videos of the impact on the Belgorod government building have been published.
Alleged North Korean Military Involvement in Kursk and Potential Commemoration: A significant new report from "Военкор Котенок" claims that Vladimir Putin personally thanked the command of North Korean military personnel for their participation in combat operations in Kursk Oblast after the Victory Day parade. While this report requires further verification, if true, it represents a major escalation in terms of direct foreign military involvement on the Russian side and could have significant geopolitical ramifications. Further supporting this claim, the Russian ambassador to North Korea stated that future monuments and streets in Kursk Oblast will be named in honor of the Korean People's Army fighters who participated in the liberation of the region from Ukrainian formations. This official statement significantly increases the credibility of the North Korean involvement claim and highlights a deliberate effort to acknowledge and commemorate their role. TASS also reports that Putin thanked foreign delegations, including for attending the 80th anniversary of Victory celebration, implying recognition of their participation. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un also visited the Russian embassy in Pyongyang to congratulate Russia on Victory Day and stated that the friendship between Russia and North Korea has reached the level of "true comrades-in-arms," further underscoring the deepening ties. Maria Zakharova also stated that North Korean authorities and citizens are grateful to the Soviet Union for help and reciprocate that gratitude.
Russian Victory Day Narrative, Propaganda, and Military Showcase: Russia is heavily leveraging Victory Day for internal and external propaganda, with military parades in Moscow and cities across the country, including Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky and Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk in the Far East, featuring Russian troops (including those from the "special operation") and foreign contingents (China, Mongolia, Turkmenistan, North Korea), auto rallies in occupied territories (including Mariupol and the DNR/LNR), and historical narratives linking the current conflict to WWII. Putin's speech at the Moscow parade emphasized national unity, support for participants in the "special military operation," and Russia's role as a barrier against Nazism and Russophobia. The parade showcased various military hardware, including tanks (T-90M, T-72B3M, T-80BVM), infantry fighting vehicles (BMP-1M, BMP-2M, BMP-3, Kurganets-25), airborne combat vehicles (BMD-4M), artillery (Msta-S, Malva, Hyacinth-K), MLRS (Tornado-S, Tosochka), operational-tactical missile systems (Iskander-M), and drone systems ("Geran" and "Lancet"). Rostec claims over 70% of the showcased weapons were developed and produced by their enterprises and are being supplied to the "special operation zone." This widespread commemoration serves to mobilize domestic support, project an image of strength and historical legitimacy, and implicitly link the current conflict to the victory over Nazi Germany. The presence of veterans from the "special military operation" on the central tribune further reinforces this link. Online "Immortal Regiment" marches and planned fireworks (with a map provided for Moscow) are also part of the celebrations. Lucashenko of Belarus praised the Moscow parade as the "best and strongest," and also stated that Russia has been ready to "not just declare a ceasefire, but conclude peace." The "Immortal Regiment" action was also held by Russian soldiers on their positions. Russian military bloggers are actively celebrating Victory Day and linking it to the current conflict. A Russian military blogger specifically notes the presence of the "heroic Yakut" who allegedly won a knife fight against a Ukrainian soldier at the parade, highlighting the use of individual narratives in propaganda. The "Immortal Regiment" action was also held in different cities of Russia, including with aviation participation in Khanty-Mansiysk, and in Kursk despite restrictions. Russia is also conducting a "Victory Relay!" military-patriotic action involving 21 countries in Europe, Asia, and Africa, with a piece of the Eternal Flame traveling to 54 regions of Russia, further linking historical and current events and seeking international engagement. The largest Victory Banner in the world was reportedly unfurled at Saur-Mogila. Putin also stated at a reception that veterans of the Great Patriotic War are always family for Russia, regardless of where they live or what language they speak, and emphasized the power of unity around ideals of peace and justice. However, in Kyiv, police are reportedly detaining people for wearing Soviet symbols and playing Victory Day songs, highlighting the contested nature of these symbols and narratives. TASS is disseminating declassified FSB archival materials claiming that Ukrainian religious figures collaborated with fascists during WWII as part of this information operation. Russian military units are participating in Victory Day commemorations from occupied territories. Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov presented "Gold Star" medals to commanders of the "Vostok" grouping, linking current military leadership to valor and presumably Victory Day.
Continued Drone and Aerial Activity: Widespread drone activity by both sides continues, with reports of Ukrainian drone attacks in Russian border regions and deep within Russia (though no attacks were reported on the Moscow parade as allegedly threatened by Zelenskyy), and Russian drone and guided aerial bomb attacks across numerous Ukrainian oblasts. Russian Ministry of Defense reports shooting down a significant number of Ukrainian UAVs. Ukrainian forces report shooting down a Russian "KUB" loitering munition in the South. The showcasing of "Geran" and "Lancet" drones in the Moscow parade highlights Russia's continued reliance on these systems. Ukrainian forces are also actively setting up anti-personnel traps using "Egosa" barbed wire to counter Russian infantry advances in areas like the Kupyansk direction, highlighting low-tech but effective tactics. Ukrainian sources highlight a high volume of Russian drone attacks (92 kamikaze drones) and shelling (451 attacks) in the Kharkiv operational zone in the past day. The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian tactical aviation in the southeastern direction with a threat of aerial guided munitions for frontline regions and missile danger for Sumy, Chernihiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Ukrainian sources also presented a video allegedly showing "traffic" among Ukrainian drones, implying a high operational tempo and competition among units for targets. Reports indicate a Russian reconnaissance UAV is correcting strikes on Shostka, Sumy Oblast. Russian Ministry of Defense also claims to have destroyed 23 unmanned boats by Black Sea Fleet naval aviation and shot down 32 guided aerial bombs, 14 HIMARS shells, and 1615 aircraft-type UAVs in the past week. A Russian military blogger reports that despite the declared ceasefire, Ukraine is actively using strike and reconnaissance UAVs and conducting fire strikes, while Russian responses are pinpoint and aimed at neutralizing threats and preventing advances. They claim to have shot down 12 "Baba Yaga" drones and one aircraft-type strike UAV by the 5th Army, and destroyed a "Darts" UAV and three "Baba Yaga" drones by the 29th Army. The 35th Army reported 34 ceasefire violations overnight, including FPV drone attacks and bomb drops. Ukrainian forces also released a video reportedly showing a Russian infantryman being targeted by a Ukrainian drone near Velyka Novosilka, Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast. A Russian military blogger reports an FPV drone attack by Russians on a civilian car in Zaporizhzhia district, resulting in injuries to two people. Ukrainian forces report repelling mechanized assaults on the Siversk direction with the help of drones. A Ukrainian drone attacked the government building in Belgorod, injuring two people.
Diplomatic Engagements and International Support: High-level diplomatic activity continues, including EU Foreign Ministers meeting in Lviv, Ukraine, demonstrating continued international support. They paid tribute to fallen Ukrainian defenders. Discussions on potential peace negotiations persist, with China's Xi Jinping reportedly urging Putin towards a "just, lasting, and binding peace agreement" acceptable to all parties, indicating a potential shift or nuance in China's public stance. Discussions on the creation of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine are ongoing. The UK is reportedly preparing new sanctions targeting 100 oil tankers in Russia's "shadow fleet." The head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration emphasized continued European support for the region, highlighting humanitarian aid and visits from various European countries. Estonia placed a banner on the Narva Castle wall facing Russia stating "Putin is a war criminal" in response to Russian Victory Day propaganda, highlighting continued tensions and counter-propaganda efforts. Lucashenko's statement about China being "definitely with Russia" due to Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow reflects a specific perspective on evolving geopolitical alliances. The UK has announced its largest package of sanctions against Russia yet, specifically targeting Russia's "shadow fleet" of oil tankers. The new German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has reportedly threatened Russia with new sanctions over Ukraine and supported the US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire to achieve a "real peace treaty," stating that if this doesn't happen, they will not hesitate to further strengthen sanctions pressure with European partners and the US. The US ambassador to Moscow, Lynne Tracy, did not attend the Victory Day parade, indicating continued diplomatic strain. The Mayor of Vilnius, Lithuania, has taken a strong stance against celebrating Victory Day, preparing "places for pro-Russian individuals" who wish to commemorate it, viewing it as a day of occupation, and emphasizing readiness to counter provocations and propaganda, while inviting people to celebrate Europe Day instead, highlighting continued anti-Russian sentiment in the Baltics and official efforts to counter Russian narratives. Russia's MFA stated they hope for continued development of dialogue with the Vatican following the election of a new Pope, Leo XIV. EU Foreign Ministers have approved the creation of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Russia. Lithuania is calling for the discussion and adoption of an 18th package of EU sanctions against Russia, while the 17th package is still being prepared.
Internal Russian Issues and Information Operations: Russian media is heavily focused on Victory Day celebrations and associated narratives, aiming to consolidate domestic support and link the current conflict to historical victories. Reports of ongoing investigations into high-ranking military officials and incidents in border regions continue to surface. The liquidation of an Uzbek ethnic organization in Moscow also suggests a focus on controlling domestic groups. Concerns about potential further Russian military buildup and conflict in Europe in the coming years are voiced by the Prime Minister of the Netherlands. Reports from occupied Mariupol highlight ongoing issues with property rights and displacement following the destruction caused by fighting, with residents protesting against the arbitrary actions of local authorities. The reopening of the railway station in occupied Donetsk for passenger traffic, the first time since 2014, is being presented by TASS as a sign of normalization. An incident at the "Light of Great Victory" installation in Volgograd resulted in a dangerous crowd crush, highlighting potential organizational issues during large public events. Russian sources are also highlighting stories of wounded soldiers returning to the front, such as the "Veles" fighter, as part of efforts to promote patriotism and military service. There are reports of temporary lifting of some traffic restrictions in Moscow following the parade. The removal of the "test mode" mention from the Russian electronic subpoena registry website is noted by a military news source, indicating a wider rollout of this system for mobilization across Russia. Vandalism of a monument to Marshal Malinovsky in Odesa is reported by Russian sources, framing it as an act of Ukrainian nationalism. Russian military bloggers are actively engaged in celebrating Victory Day and promoting their perspectives on the conflict, often linking it to historical narratives. Discussions about a "Religion of Victory" forming the basis of a new Russian ideology are also being presented. Russian state figures like Mikhail Mishustin are issuing congratulatory messages for Victory Day. Colonelcassad highlights the appearance of a fighter who allegedly won a knife fight against a Ukrainian soldier at the Victory Day parade. A Russian source publishes a text about Victory Day written eight years ago by someone who was in Ukrainian captivity, emphasizing the enduring significance of the holiday and linking it to the current situation and the need to live up to the ideals of past generations. In Kyiv, police are reportedly detaining people for wearing Soviet symbols and playing Victory Day songs, illustrating the contentious nature of these symbols in Ukraine. A Ukrainian source reports the detention of a Russian informant in Kharkiv who was collecting data on Ukrainian military bases. ASTRA and Север.Реалии report that the deputy governor of Belgorod Oblast and a Rosgvardiya employee were injured in a drone attack on the government building in Belgorod. This incident on Victory Day itself highlights the continued vulnerability of Russian territory and disrupts the carefully curated narrative of celebration and security. Russian military bloggers are conducting fundraising efforts for drones for their units on the front lines. Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov presented "Gold Star" medals to commanders of the "Vostok" grouping, reinforcing military successes and potentially boosting morale. A Russian military blogger reflects on the causes of the current conflict, attributing it partly to unlearned lessons and mistakes over the past 30 years, providing an internal, critical perspective. Russian sources are highlighting the historical significance of Saur-Mogila as a site for Victory Day commemorations.
Casualties and Humanitarian Impact: Civilian casualties continue to be reported on both sides, underscoring the ongoing human cost of the conflict. Reports from occupied Mariupol highlight ongoing issues with property rights and displacement following the destruction caused by fighting, forcing some residents to be "wandering around in apartments." Ukrainian sources are also emphasizing the psychological impact of the conflict on the population and providing advice on how to support those experiencing anxiety and the importance of respecting privacy and avoiding re-traumatization of those who have been in captivity. The closure of the last Nova Poshta branch in Kostiantynivka due to constant shelling highlights the severe impact on civilian life and the loss of essential services in front-line towns, even those providing basic necessities and a "point of invincibility" for locals. A Russian military blogger reports an FPV drone attack by Russians on a civilian car in Zaporizhzhia district, resulting in injuries to two people, one in serious condition. The drone attack on the Belgorod government building injured two people.
Focus on Military Modernization and Personnel: Ukraine is actively recruiting AI specialists and discussing military service for women, indicating a focus on technological advancement and personnel management. Ukraine is also actively recruiting for specialized units like the 34th Marine Corps Coastal Defense Brigade and highlighting their combat role. Russia is showcasing modern military equipment, including drones and advanced artillery systems, in its Victory Day parade and claiming their effectiveness in the "special operation." Reports from Russian military bloggers continue to highlight the reliance on volunteer support for equipment and the use of improvised weaponry. The death of a police chief accused of corruption after joining the "SVO" suggests potential personnel practices related to addressing shortages. Russian sources are also highlighting the return of wounded soldiers to the front lines. Ukraine is showcasing new maritime drone developments like the "Seawolf" platform with various modular capabilities, including air defense and drone carrying, highlighting an increased focus on naval and asymmetric capabilities. Reports suggest Russia is using S-300/S-400 mockups in the Far East while real systems are redeployed west, indicating potential strains on their air defense network. Ukrainian forces report damaging Russian BMPs and tanks on the Siversk direction, indicating continued engagement with Russian armored vehicles. Russian military bloggers are conducting fundraising efforts for drones, indicating a continued need for technological resources on the front lines. Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov presented "Gold Star" medals to commanders of the "Vostok" grouping, highlighting the performance of specific military formations. DBR has detained the deputy rector of the National Academy of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine on suspicion of corruption, highlighting ongoing efforts to address internal issues within Ukrainian military institutions. Reports of another MSEK official under investigation in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast for undeclared assets indicate continued anti-corruption efforts in Ukraine.
Belarusian Internal Security: The reported detention of the brother of journalist Ihor Losik in Belarus and the charges of "assisting extremist activity" for sharing photos of military equipment movements highlight the ongoing internal security crackdown and potential information control efforts in Belarus, which is closely aligned with Russia. Lucashenko's statements supporting Russia's position on peace talks are also relevant.
Iranian Drone Production: A Russian source highlights the presentation of a new underground Iranian drone production facility, stating they produce drones used for reconnaissance against US forces. While not directly related to the Ukraine conflict, it is relevant to the broader geopolitical landscape and potential sources of drone technology.
Moldovan Political Dynamics: Reports from a Russian military blogger highlighting protests in Moldova against the "pro-Western" government's stance on Victory Day and efforts to prevent people from participating in commemorations, framed as resisting the erasure of historical memory, indicate potential internal political friction and Russian information operations aimed at influencing public opinion in Moldova.
Anti-Russian Sentiment in Poland: The appearance of a sculpture named "Kh..ylo" at an exhibition on the territory of a Soviet soldiers' cemetery-mausoleum in Warsaw is a strong expression of anti-Russian sentiment in Poland and a counter-narrative to Russian historical narratives.
Civilian Infrastructure as Targets: A Ukrainian source reports that the last Nova Poshta branch in Kostiantynivka is closing due to constant shelling and that it served as a "point of invincibility" for locals, providing essential services. This highlights the severe impact of the conflict on civilian infrastructure and the potential targeting of essential services. A Russian military blogger reports an FPV drone attack by Russians on a civilian car in Zaporizhzhia district, resulting in injuries to two people. The drone attack on the Belgorod government building highlights the vulnerability of administrative infrastructure in Russian border regions.
Educational Continuity in Conflict Zones: The head of Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports that a medical college in Zaporizhzhia has been conducting mixed-format education in a shelter for over a year to ensure continuous learning for future medics, creating practice locations within the shelter. This indicates efforts to maintain educational continuity despite the ongoing conflict and highlights the adaptation of civilian institutions.
Roscosmos Activities: The head of Roscosmos, Borisov, announced negotiations with the candidate for the head of NASA, Isaacman, indicating ongoing, albeit limited, space cooperation or dialogue despite geopolitical tensions.
Corruption in Ukraine: DBR has detained the deputy rector of the National Academy of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine on suspicion of corruption. Reports of another MSEK official under investigation in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast for undeclared assets indicate continued anti-corruption efforts. These incidents highlight ongoing efforts within Ukraine to address internal issues related to corruption, even amidst the conflict.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Pokrovsk Direction: Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat, with Ukrainian forces reporting repelling 71 assaults in the previous reporting period. A Russian military blogger reports continued fighting and Russian advances before the ceasefire took effect. (Liveuamap Source, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Военкор Котенок)
Novopavlivka Direction: Continues to experience intense ground combat, with Ukrainian forces reporting repelling 28 attacks in the previous reporting period. (Liveuamap Source, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Kursk Oblast (Russia) / Sumy Oblast (Ukraine Border) (Tetkino, Pavlivka, Hormal', Sudzha, Shostka): Continued high-intensity fighting persists, with Ukrainian forces reporting repelling 19 Russian army assaults in Kursk region. Russian aviation is reportedly conducting airstrikes on settlements in Sumy Oblast. A significant new claim alleges North Korean military participation in combat operations in Kursk, with an official Russian source stating future monuments will be named in their honor. Intense fighting near Tetkino is specifically mentioned by a Russian source. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims four attempts by Ukraine to breach the border in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts. Russian sources also report the destruction of a Ukrainian bridge layer near Pavlivka, Sumy Oblast, which they claim was intended to facilitate an advance towards the settlement of Novyi Put, highlighting Ukrainian attempts to breach the border using engineering equipment and Russian counter-efforts using drones. Russian Ministry of Defense also claims 15 Ukrainian attacks and one reconnaissance in force attempt in various settlements in LNR and DNR, in addition to the border breach attempts. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС claims that the Ukrainian flag is flying in the center of Hormal', Kursk Oblast, and that the settlement is under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Civilian areas in Shostka and its suburbs are under rocket attack, reportedly corrected by a Russian reconnaissance UAV. The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast. A Russian military blogger reports continued fighting near Tetkino despite the ceasefire. (Liveuamap Source, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Военкор Котенок, Liveuamap Source, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Два майора, STERNENKO, РБК-Україна, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Lyman Direction: Continues to experience intense ground combat, with Ukrainian forces reporting repelling 27 attacks near Nadiya, Novoyehorivka, Ridkodub, Hrekivka, Novomykhaylivka, Kolodyazi, Zelena Dolyna and Torske in the previous reporting period. (Liveuamap Source, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Siversk Direction: Experienced engagements near Bilohorivka and Fedorivka, with Ukrainian forces reporting repelling five assaults in the previous reporting period. Positional combat is also reported near Verkhnokamyanske. Ukrainian forces report repelling mechanized assaults, damaging Russian BMPs and tanks. (Liveuamap Source, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Сливочный каприз, STERNENKO)
Toretsk Direction: Experienced engagements near Krymske and Toretsk, with Ukrainian forces reporting repelling nine attacks in the previous reporting period. (Liveuamap Source, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Kramatorsk Direction: Experienced engagements near Chasiv Yar and Kurdumivka, with six engagements recorded in the previous reporting period. (Liveuamap Source, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Orikhiv Direction: Experienced intense ground combat near Stepove and Scherbaky, with Ukrainian forces reporting repelling three assaults in the previous reporting period. (Liveuamap Source, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Dnipro (Kherson) Direction: Experienced unsuccessful Russian attempts to advance, with Ukrainian forces reporting repelling five assaults in the previous reporting period. (Liveuamap Source, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Kharkiv Direction: Experienced clashes near Vovchansk, with Ukrainian forces reporting repelling four attacks in the previous reporting period. Clashes also reported near Synkivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka and towards Novoosynove in the Kupyansk direction. Ukrainian forces are also deploying anti-personnel traps ("Egosa" barbed wire) in the Kupyansk direction. Ukrainian sources highlight a high volume of Russian drone attacks (92 kamikaze drones) and shelling (451 attacks) in the Kharkiv operational zone in the past day. A Ukrainian source reports the detention of a Russian informant who was collecting data on military bases in Kharkiv. (Liveuamap Source, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Verkhnokamyanske (Donetsk/Luhansk Border): Positional combat is reported, with Russian sources claiming to have occupied new positions in residential areas and expanded their control in the central part of the settlement. (Сливочный каприз)
Lviv (Ukraine): EU Foreign Ministers are meeting here for an informal meeting and have paid tribute to fallen Ukrainian defenders. Discussions on creating a special tribunal for the crime of aggression are underway. Zelenskyy addressed the EU Foreign Ministers in Lviv, calling for political support to create a tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine. EU Foreign Ministers have approved the creation of a special tribunal regarding the crime of aggression against Russia. (Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Zelenskiy / Official, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Mariupol (occupied): Reports highlight ongoing issues with property rights and displacement for residents whose homes were destroyed, with residents protesting local authorities. Auto rallies in honor of Victory Day are also taking place. (ASTRA, Mash на Донбассе)
Moscow (Russia): Center of the city was the site of the Victory Day parade, featuring military hardware and foreign contingents. Putin delivered a speech and interacted with parade participants and foreign guests, including alleged North Korean military command and veterans of the "special operation." Online "Immortal Regiment" marches and planned fireworks (with a map provided for Moscow) are part of celebrations. Temporary lifting of some traffic restrictions is reported. Heightened security measures were in place at Sheremetyevo Airport. Putin thanked foreign delegations for attending the 80th anniversary of Victory celebration. TASS is providing extensive live coverage of the parade. (Новости Москвы, MoD Russia, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, ASTRA, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, Fighterbomber, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Басурин о главном, Воин DV, Филолог в засаде, WarGonzo, Старше Эдды, ТАСС)
Russian Cities (various) (Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Khanty-Mansiysk, Kursk, Bryansk, Ulyanovsk Oblast, Saratov, Volgograd): Locations where Victory Day celebrations, including online "Immortal Regiment" marches and planned fireworks, are taking place. Solemn marches and parades are taking place in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky and Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk. The "Immortal Regiment" action was also held with aviation participation in Khanty-Mansiysk. Commemorative events are taking place in Kursk despite restrictions. Russia is conducting a "Victory Relay!" military-patriotic action involving 21 countries in Europe, Asia, and Africa, with a piece of the Eternal Flame traveling to 54 regions of Russia. The "Light of Great Victory" installation in Volgograd experienced a crowd crush incident. (ТАСС, Новости Москвы, Басурин о главном, Филолог в засаде, WarGonzo, AV БогомаZ, Воин DV, ASTRA)
Donetsk/Luhansk (occupied) (Saur-Mogila, Donetsk, Makeevka): Auto rallies and cultural events are being held in honor of Victory Day. The railway station in Donetsk has reportedly reopened for passenger traffic. The largest Victory Banner in the world was reportedly unfurled at Saur-Mogila. Russian Ministry of Defense claims 15 Ukrainian attacks and one reconnaissance in force attempt in various settlements in LNR and DNR. Auto rallies in honor of Victory Day are being held in the DNR. Russian military bloggers report advances near Makeevka. Russian military personnel are participating in Victory Day commemorations from recently "liberated" settlements in the DNR. (Mash на Донбассе, Воин DV, ТАСС, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia), Colonelcassad)
Transcarpathia (Ukraine): Location where a criminal organization involved in illegally transporting draft evaders was exposed. Alleged Hungarian military intelligence network also uncovered here. (Офіс Генерального прокурора, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Belarus: Relevant due to the reported detention of the brother of a journalist who allegedly shared photos of military equipment movements. Lucashenko praised the Moscow Victory Day parade and stated Russia is ready for peace. Lucashenko stated that Russia has been ready to "not just declare a ceasefire, but conclude peace." (Север.Реалии, ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Odesa (Ukraine): Vandalism targeting a monument to Marshal Rodion Malinovsky is reported by Russian sources. (ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Volgograd (Russia): Incident at the "Light of Great Victory" installation on Mamayev Kurgan resulted in a crowd crush. (ASTRA)
Germany: Location of local demonstrations for Victory Day and discussions on restrictions related to Russian symbols, highlighting geopolitical tensions. A Russian military blogger commented on the appointment of Friedrich Merz as Federal Chancellor, predicting increased militarization and anti-Russian policy. The new German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has reportedly threatened Russia with new sanctions over Ukraine and supported the US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire to achieve a "real peace treaty." (Рыбарь, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, РБК-Україна)
Estonia: Placed a banner on Narva Castle stating "Putin is a war criminal" in response to Russian propaganda. (✙DeepState✙🇺🇦)
Kostiantynivka (Donetsk Oblast): The last Nova Poshta branch has closed due to constant shelling, highlighting the severe impact on civilian infrastructure and essential services. (РБК-Україна)
Moldova: Reports from a Russian military blogger highlight protests against the government's stance on Victory Day and alleged efforts to prevent participation in commemorations. (Два майора)
Warsaw (Poland): A sculpture named "Kh..ylo" appeared at an exhibition on the territory of a Soviet soldiers' cemetery-mausoleum. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Ukraine) (Zaporizhzhia district): A Russian military blogger reports an FPV drone attack by Russians on a civilian car in Zaporizhzhia district, resulting in injuries to two people. The head of Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports on a medical college conducting education in a shelter. (STERNENKO, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Kyiv (Ukraine): Police are reportedly detaining people for wearing Soviet symbols and playing Victory Day songs. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Воин DV)
Velyka Novosilka (Donetsk Oblast): Ukrainian forces released a video reportedly showing a Russian infantryman being targeted by a Ukrainian drone. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Pyongyang (North Korea): Kim Jong Un visited the Russian embassy to congratulate Russia on Victory Day and stated that the friendship between Russia and North Korea has reached the level of "true comrades-in-arms." (WarGonzo)
Belgorod Oblast (Russia): The government building was attacked by a Ukrainian drone, injuring the deputy governor and a Rosgvardiya employee. (ASTRA, Север.Реалии, ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора)
Lithuania: The Mayor of Vilnius has taken a strong stance against celebrating Victory Day. Lithuania is calling for the discussion and adoption of an 18th package of EU sanctions against Russia. (✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, РБК-Україна)
Southern Donetsk Direction: Russian military bloggers report advances, clearing the southern part of Bogatyr and expanding control near Kotlyarivka and Otradne. (Colonelcassad)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Reports of another MSEK official under investigation for undeclared assets. (РБК-Україна)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Extensive drone activity continues on both sides, with significant numbers of drones reported used and intercepted. Ukrainian drone attacks are reported in Russian border regions and potentially deeper within Russia. Russian drone and guided aerial bomb attacks are reported across numerous Ukrainian oblasts. Ukrainian forces report shooting down a Russian "KUB" loitering munition in the South. The showcasing of "Geran" and "Lancet" drones in the Moscow parade highlights Russia's continued reliance on these systems. Ukrainian forces report a high volume of Russian kamikaze drone attacks (92) in the Kharkiv operational zone. Ukrainian sources highlight apparent "traffic" among their own drones, suggesting a high operational tempo. Ukrainian forces are showcasing the development of new maritime drones like the "Seawolf" platform with various modular capabilities. Reports indicate a Russian reconnaissance UAV is correcting strikes on Shostka, Sumy Oblast. Russian Ministry of Defense also claims to have shot down 1615 aircraft-type UAVs in the past week. A Russian military blogger reports that despite the declared ceasefire, Ukraine is actively using strike and reconnaissance UAVs and conducting fire strikes, while Russian responses are pinpoint. They claim to have shot down 12 "Baba Yaga" drones and one aircraft-type strike UAV by the 5th Army, and destroyed a "Darts" UAV and three "Baba Yaga" drones by the 29th Army. The 35th Army reported 34 ceasefire violations overnight, including 19 FPV drone attacks and 7 bomb drops from drones. Ukrainian forces also released a video reportedly showing a Russian infantryman being targeted by a Ukrainian drone near Velyka Novosilka, Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast. A Russian military blogger reports an FPV drone attack by Russians on a civilian car in Zaporizhzhia district, resulting in injuries to two people. Ukrainian forces report repelling mechanized assaults on the Siversk direction with the help of drones. A Ukrainian drone attacked the government building in Belgorod, injuring two people. Russian military bloggers are conducting fundraising efforts for drones for their units on the front lines. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Liveuamap Source, STERNENKO, Военкор Котенок, Colonelcassad, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, STERNENKO, РБК-Україна, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, STERNENKO, ASTRA, Север.Реалии, ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Russian tactical aviation launched guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting settlements in Sumy Oblast and reportedly used 17 guided bombs in air strikes in the Kursk region in the previous reporting period. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of aerial guided munitions for frontline regions from Russian tactical aviation in the southeastern direction. Russian Ministry of Defense also claims to have shot down 32 guided aerial bombs in the past week. The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast. (Liveuamap Source, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ТАСС)
Missile Activity: Russian Ministry of Defense reports shooting down Ukrainian missiles and projectiles, including 14 HIMARS shells in the past week. Operational-tactical missile systems "Iskander-M" were showcased in the Moscow parade. The Ukrainian Air Force reports missile danger for Sumy, Chernihiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. A missile was reported in the Donetsk region moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, specifically the Synelnykove district. Shostka and its suburbs in Sumy Oblast are under rocket attack, reportedly corrected by a Russian reconnaissance UAV. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Liveuamap Source, Colonelcassad, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, STERNENKO, РБК-Україна, ТАСС)
Naval Activity: The UK is reportedly preparing new sanctions targeting 100 oil tankers in Russia's "shadow fleet," which could impact Russia's ability to export oil and fund its war effort. Ukraine is showcasing new modular maritime drones ("Seawolf") with potential air defense, electronic warfare, mine-laying, and drone-carrying capabilities. Russian Ministry of Defense also claims to have destroyed 23 unmanned boats by Black Sea Fleet naval aviation. The UK has announced its largest package of sanctions against Russia yet, specifically targeting Russia's "shadow fleet" of oil tankers. (Оперативний ЗСУ, Два майора, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Aviation: Russian aviation continues to conduct air strikes, particularly in Sumy and Kursk Oblasts and across Ukrainian oblasts. Russian combat aircraft, including Su-30 and MiG-29, and Su-25 attack aircraft participated in the Moscow parade. The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian tactical aviation in the southeastern direction. The "Immortal Regiment" action in Khanty-Mansiysk involved aviation participation. Russian military blogger reports that despite the declared ceasefire, Ukraine is actively using strike and reconnaissance UAVs and conducting fire strikes, while Russian responses are pinpoint. (Liveuamap Source, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Fighterbomber, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ТАСС, Colonelcassad)
Artillery and MLRS Activity: High levels of artillery and MLRS fire continue on both sides, resulting in casualties and damage. Ukrainian General Staff reports extensive shelling by Russia, including 274 artillery bombardments and six from MLRS in the Kursk region in the previous reporting period. Artillery systems (Msta-S, Malva, Hyacinth-K) and MLRS (Tornado-S, Tosochka) were showcased in the Moscow parade. Ukrainian forces report 451 shelling attacks in the Kharkiv operational zone in the past day. Russian Ministry of Defense also claims Ukrainian units committed 1455 shellings from barrel artillery, tanks, and mortars, and 23 shellings using MLRS over the entire line of contact, totaling 5026 ceasefire violations. (Liveuamap Source, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Colonelcassad, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, Два майора)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Victory Day Narratives: Both Russia and Ukraine are actively using Victory Day for propaganda. Russia emphasizes historical significance and links the current conflict to WWII, showcasing military power and foreign support (including contingents from China, Mongolia, Turkmenistan, and North Korea in the Moscow parade). Ukraine emphasizes its contribution to WWII victory and counters Russian narratives, highlighting sacrifices and seeking international solidarity. The ban of Russian Victory Day symbols and events in Kazakhstan highlights geopolitical tensions and the contested nature of historical narratives. Estonia's counter-propaganda banner in Narva also highlights this. Lucashenko of Belarus praised the Moscow parade as the "best and strongest" and stated Russia is ready for peace. Russian figures like Mishustin are issuing Victory Day congratulations. Reports highlight local Victory Day demonstrations in Germany where participants defied restrictions on Russian symbols. Reports from a Russian military blogger highlight protests in Moldova against the government's stance on Victory Day and alleged efforts to prevent participation in commemorations. The appearance of a sculpture named "Kh..ylo" at an exhibition on the territory of a Soviet soldiers' cemetery-mausoleum in Warsaw is a strong expression of anti-Russian sentiment in Poland. Putin thanked foreign delegations for attending the 80th anniversary of Victory celebration. Kim Jong Un visited the Russian embassy in Pyongyang to congratulate Russia and stated that the friendship between Russia and North Korea has reached the level of "true comrades-in-arms." Maria Zakharova stated that North Korean authorities and citizens are grateful to the Soviet Union for help and reciprocate that gratitude. A Russian source publishes a text about Victory Day written eight years ago by someone who was in Ukrainian captivity, emphasizing the enduring significance of the holiday and linking it to the current situation. In Kyiv, police are reportedly detaining people for wearing Soviet symbols and playing Victory Day songs, illustrating the contentious nature of these symbols in Ukraine. TASS is disseminating declassified FSB archival materials claiming that Ukrainian religious figures collaborated with fascists during WWII as part of this information operation. Russian military units are participating in Victory Day commemorations from occupied territories. The drone attack on the Belgorod government building on Victory Day itself is a notable disruption to the Russian narrative of celebration and security. (ТАСС, Новости Москвы, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, ASTRA, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, Fighterbomber, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Mash на Донбассе, Басурин о главном, Воин DV, Филолог в засаде, WarGonzo, Старше Эдды, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, Рыбарь, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, WarGonzo, ТАСС, Филолог в засаде, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, ASTRA, Север.Реалии)
EU-Ukraine Relations: EU Foreign Ministers are meeting in Ukraine. Discussions on creating a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Russia are ongoing. The head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration emphasized continued European support for the region. Zelenskyy addressed the EU Foreign Ministers in Lviv, calling for political support to create a tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine. EU Foreign Ministers have approved the creation of a special tribunal regarding the crime of aggression against Russia. (Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Zelenskiy / Official, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Russian-Chinese Relations: Discussions between Putin and Xi Jinping are focused on deepening economic cooperation and strategic interaction. They signed documents on comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction. Putin stated that relations have reached their highest level. Xi Jinping reportedly urged Putin towards a "just, lasting, and binding peace agreement" acceptable to all parties, suggesting a potential nuanced position from China on the conflict's resolution. Discussions on the "Power of Siberia - 2" gas pipeline are progressing. Lucashenko's statement about China being "definitely with Russia" due to Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow reflects a specific perspective on evolving geopolitical alliances. (ТАСС, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Colonelcassad, ТАСС)
Ukraine's Peace Stance and Mediation: Ukrainian officials reiterate their readiness for a ceasefire to enable peace talks, emphasizing the need for a strong international stance to pressure Russia. Discussions on a potential 30-day ceasefire based on a proposal resembling Trump's idea are reported. China's stance on a "just" peace is also noted. Lucashenko stated Russia is ready for peace. The new German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has reportedly supported the US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire to achieve a "real peace treaty." Zelenskyy addressed the EU Foreign Ministers in Lviv, calling for the creation of a tribunal for the crime of aggression. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Zelenskiy / Official)
UK Sanctions: The UK is reportedly poised to impose sanctions on 100 oil tankers in Russia's "shadow fleet." The UK has announced its largest package of sanctions against Russia yet, specifically targeting Russia's "shadow fleet" of oil tankers. (Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Hungarian-Ukrainian Relations: Diplomatic friction continues. Ukraine's SBU claims to have uncovered a Hungarian military intelligence agent network in Zakarpattia Oblast. The Hungarian Foreign Minister has called statements about the network "anti-Hungarian propaganda." (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Netherlands: The Prime Minister of the Netherlands warns that Russia could build up forces for another war in Europe within 2-3 years, emphasizing the need for Europe to work actively to prevent Russian aggression. (РБК-Україна)
Switzerland: A Swiss court has approved a settlement for the Nord Stream 2 operator and its creditors. (ТАСС)
Belarus: The reported detention of the brother of a journalist for allegedly sharing photos of military equipment movements highlights internal security measures and potential information control efforts. Lucashenko praised the Moscow parade and stated Russia is ready for peace. Lucashenko stated that Russia has been ready to "not just declare a ceasefire, but conclude peace." (Север.Реалии, ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Armenia: Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's alleged presence at the Moscow parade and taking the parade of an "Azerbaijani Commando brigade" is reported by a Russian source, which if true, could be a significant and potentially provocative act in the context of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations and their respective ties to Russia. (Военкор Котенок)
Germany: The appointment of Friedrich Merz as Federal Chancellor is noted, with Russian commentary predicting increased militarization and anti-Russian policy. The new German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has reportedly threatened Russia with new sanctions over Ukraine and supported the US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire. (STERNENKO, ТАСС, Рыбарь, РБК-Україна)
Moldova: Reports from a Russian military blogger highlight protests against the government's stance on Victory Day and alleged efforts to prevent participation in commemorations. (Два майора)
Poland: The appearance of a sculpture named "Kh..ylo" at an exhibition on the territory of a Soviet soldiers' cemetery-mausoleum in Warsaw is a strong expression of anti-Russian sentiment. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦)
US Ambassador to Moscow: The US ambassador to Moscow, Lynne Tracy, did not attend the Victory Day parade, indicating continued diplomatic strain. (ТАСС)
The Vatican: Russia's MFA stated they hope for continued development of dialogue with the Vatican following the election of a new Pope, Leo XIV. (ТАСС)
Lithuania: Lithuania is calling for the discussion and adoption of an 18th package of EU sanctions against Russia, while the 17th package is still being prepared. (РБК-Україна)

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security Concerns: Potential disconnection of mobile internet and cellular service in Moscow on May 9th for security reasons was reported. Widespread internet outages attributed to counter-drone measures have been reported previously. ASTRA reports the death of a military medical commission head in Sevastopol due to an accidental self-inflicted gunshot wound during an attack in the previous reporting period. The liquidation of an Uzbek ethnic organization in Moscow also suggests a focus on controlling domestic groups. The showcasing of drone systems like "Geran" and "Lancet" in the parade implicitly acknowledges the threat posed by Ukrainian drones. An incident at the "Light of Great Victory" installation in Volgograd resulted in a dangerous crowd crush. Heightened security measures were in place at Sheremetyevo Airport in Moscow. Commemorative events are taking place in Kursk despite restrictions. A Ukrainian source reports the detention of a Russian informant in Kharkiv who was collecting data on military bases. The drone attack on the Belgorod government building highlights the continued vulnerability of Russian border regions to Ukrainian attacks. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Alex Parker Returns, Север.Реалии, ASTRA, Новости Москвы, ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ, ASTRA, Север.Реалии)
Impact of Ukrainian Attacks: Reports of ongoing investigations into high-ranking military officials and incidents in border regions continue to surface. Reports from occupied Mariupol highlight ongoing issues with property rights and displacement following the destruction caused by fighting, with residents protesting local authorities. Ukrainian drone attacks are reported in Russian border regions, and the Belgorod region's air defense was reportedly active during the night of Victory Day. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims four attempts by Ukraine to breach the border in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts during the declared ceasefire. A Russian military blogger reports an FPV drone attack by Russians on a civilian car in Zaporizhzhia district, resulting in injuries to two people. The drone attack on the government building in Belgorod injured the deputy governor and a Rosgvardiya employee. (ASTRA, Старше Эдды, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, STERNENKO, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, ASTRA, Север.Реалии, ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора)
Youth Engagement: Increased membership in "Yunarmia" has been reported previously. Yuunarmiya members participated in the Moscow parade. (ТАСС, AV БогомаZ)
Casualties: Civilian casualties continue to be reported in areas subjected to Russian shelling and aerial attacks. ASTRA reports ongoing issues with property rights and displacement for residents whose homes were destroyed in Mariupol, implicitly highlighting the casualties and displacement caused by fighting. The death of a police chief accused of corruption after joining the "SVO" is reported, highlighting the human cost and potential personnel practices. Russian sources are also highlighting stories of wounded soldiers returning to the front, such as the "Veles" fighter. Colonelcassad highlights the appearance of a fighter who allegedly won a knife fight against a Ukrainian soldier at the Victory Day parade. A Russian military blogger reports an FPV drone attack by Russians on a civilian car in Zaporizhzhia district, resulting in injuries to two people, one in serious condition. The drone attack on the Belgorod government building injured two people. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, ASTRA, Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц", Басурин о главном, Colonelcassad, STERNENKO, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, ASTRA, Север.Реалии, ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора)
Domestic Issues: Reports of expired marmalade given as Victory Day gifts to pensioners in Saratov Oblast were reported previously. Ongoing issues with property rights and displacement in occupied Mariupol highlight the challenges in managing occupied territories. The reopening of the railway station in occupied Donetsk is presented as a sign of normalization. An incident at a public event in Volgograd resulted in a crowd crush. (ASTRA, ТАСС, ASTRA)
Information Operations: Significant effort is being put into promoting Victory Day narratives and countering perceived negative portrayals. Russian state media and military bloggers are actively covering the parades and celebrations and promoting associated narratives, linking the current conflict to WWII. Discussions about a "Religion of Victory" forming the basis of a new Russian ideology are also being presented. Russian sources are also highlighting stories of wounded soldiers returning to the front and reporting on vandalism of Soviet monuments in Ukraine. Reports highlight local Victory Day demonstrations in Germany where participants defied restrictions on Russian symbols. Reports from a Russian military blogger highlight protests in Moldova against the government's stance on Victory Day and alleged efforts to prevent participation in commemorations. The appearance of a sculpture named "Kh..ylo" at an exhibition on the territory of a Soviet soldiers' cemetery-mausoleum in Warsaw is a strong expression of anti-Russian sentiment in Poland. A Russian source publishes a text about Victory Day written eight years ago by someone who was in Ukrainian captivity, emphasizing the enduring significance of the holiday and linking it to the current situation. In Kyiv, police are reportedly detaining people for wearing Soviet symbols and playing Victory Day songs. TASS is disseminating declassified FSB archival materials claiming that Ukrainian religious figures collaborated with fascists during WWII as part of this campaign. Russian military units are participating in Victory Day commemorations from occupied territories. The drone attack on the Belgorod government building on Victory Day itself disrupts the narrative of complete security. A Russian military blogger provides a critical perspective on the current conflict, attributing it to past mistakes. (ТАСС, Новости Москвы, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, Fighterbomber, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Mash на Донбассе, Басурин о главном, Воин DV, Филолог в засаде, WarGonzo, Старше Эдды, Басурин о главном, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Рыбарь, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Филолог в засаде, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, ASTRA, Север.Реалии, Филолог в засаде)
Security Measures: Temporary mobile internet restrictions and airport closures have been reported previously. The signing of an order for Victory Day fireworks by the new Minister of Defense indicates a continuation of ceremonial military traditions. Heightened security measures at Moscow airports were in place for Victory Day. Temporary lifting of some traffic restrictions in Moscow is reported. The drone attack on the Belgorod government building highlights the challenges in providing complete security in border regions. (ТАСС, Новости Москвы, Colonelcassad, ASTRA, Север.Реалии)
Political Dynamics: Political figures are participating in Victory Day events and making statements. The potential senatorial appointment of the widow of a general indicates ongoing political processes and potential ties between the military and political spheres. Mikhail Mishustin issued a congratulatory message for Victory Day. Lucashenko of Belarus praised the Moscow parade and stated Russia is ready for peace. Colonelcassad commented on the appointment of Friedrich Merz as Federal Chancellor of Germany. Putin thanked foreign delegations for attending the 80th anniversary of Victory celebration. Kim Jong Un visited the Russian embassy in Pyongyang to congratulate Russia and stated that the friendship between Russia and North Korea has reached the level of "true comrades-in-arms." Maria Zakharova stated that North Korean authorities and citizens are grateful to the Soviet Union for help and reciprocate that gratitude. Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov presented "Gold Star" medals to commanders of the "Vostok" grouping, reinforcing the link between political leadership and military actions. The drone attack on the Belgorod government building injured the deputy governor, highlighting the risks to political figures in border regions. (ТАСС, AV БогомаZ, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, Рыбарь, ТАСС, WarGonzo, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, ASTRA, Север.Реалии)
Logistics: Reports from military bloggers continue to highlight the reliance on volunteer support for equipment and the use of improvised weaponry, hinting at ongoing logistical challenges. Russian military bloggers are conducting fundraising efforts for drones, indicating a continued need for equipment at the unit level. (Военкор Котенок, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Military-Industrial Complex: Rostec claims that over 70% of the weapons showcased in the Victory Day parade were developed and produced by their enterprises and are being supplied to the "special operation zone," emphasizing the role of the military-industrial complex in supporting the war effort. Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have struck enterprises of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex before the declared ceasefire. (Colonelcassad, ТАСС)
Mobilization System: The removal of the "test mode" mention from the Russian electronic subpoena registry website indicates a wider rollout of this system for mobilization across Russia. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Новости Москвы, Север.Реалии)
Air Defense Readiness: Reports suggesting Russia is using S-300/S-400 mockups in the Far East while redeploying real systems westward could indicate potential strains on their air defense network's overall readiness. (STERNENKO)
Internal Criticism: A Russian military blogger provides a critical perspective on the current conflict, attributing it to past mistakes, which suggests some level of internal debate or dissatisfaction. (Филолог в засаде)

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Financial Support: Ukraine received EU financial aid from frozen Russian assets. Fundraising efforts continue for military units on both sides, with a specific request for equipment for SSO fighters in Ukraine being highlighted with incentives for donors. Russian military bloggers are conducting fundraising efforts for drones. (РБК-Україна, Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц", Военкор Котенок, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Military Aid: Discussions on military aid continue at high levels. Romania and the Netherlands are establishing a training center for Ukrainian F-16 technical personnel. The showcase of military equipment in the Moscow parade and the claims by Rostec about supplying the "special operation zone" highlight Russia's continued military production efforts. The UK is reportedly preparing new sanctions targeting 100 Russian oil tankers. Ukraine is showcasing new modular maritime drone developments. The UK has announced its largest package of sanctions against Russia yet, specifically targeting Russia's "shadow fleet" of oil tankers. The new German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has reportedly threatened Russia with new sanctions over Ukraine. Lithuania is calling for the discussion and adoption of an 18th package of EU sanctions against Russia. (Сили оборони Півдня України, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Military Personnel Welfare: Russia is providing support for wounded soldiers and their families and showcasing veterans at the Victory Day parade. Ukraine is discussing military service for women and providing educational support for children of security and defense forces personnel. Russian sources are also highlighting stories of wounded soldiers returning to the front lines. Ukrainian sources are providing advice on supporting those affected by the conflict and emphasizing not imposing "heroism" and respecting the privacy of those who have been in captivity. Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov presented "Gold Star" medals to commanders of the "Vostok" grouping, which is a form of military recognition and support. (Рыбарь, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), ТАСС, Басурин о главном, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Colonelcassad)
Humanitarian Situation: Civilian casualties continue to be reported due to shelling and aerial attacks. Reports from occupied Mariupol highlight ongoing issues with property rights and displacement for residents whose homes were destroyed, implicitly highlighting the casualties and displacement caused by fighting. Ukraine's "e-Restoration" program for damaged housing continues to provide aid. The closure of the last Nova Poshta branch in Kostiantynivka due to constant shelling highlights the severe impact on civilian life and the loss of essential services in front-line towns, even those providing basic necessities and a "point of invincibility" for locals. A Russian military blogger reports an FPV drone attack by Russians on a civilian car in Zaporizhzhia district, resulting in injuries to two people, one in serious condition. The drone attack on the Belgorod government building injured two people. The head of Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports on a medical college conducting education in a shelter to ensure educational continuity. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, ASTRA, Север.Реалии, ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора)
Infrastructure Restoration: Ukraine continues efforts to restore critical infrastructure damaged by the conflict, including public transport in cities like Kryvyi Rih. The reopening of the railway station in occupied Donetsk is reported by TASS. The closure of the last Nova Poshta branch in Kostiantynivka highlights the severe impact on civilian infrastructure. (Олександр Вілкул, ТАСС, РБК-Україна)
Educational Continuity: The head of Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports that a medical college in Zaporizhzhia has been conducting mixed-format education in a shelter for over a year to ensure continuous learning for future medics, creating practice locations within the shelter. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)
Anti-Corruption Efforts: DBR has detained the deputy rector of the National Academy of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine on suspicion of corruption. Reports of another MSEK official under investigation in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast for undeclared assets indicate continued anti-corruption efforts in Ukraine. (Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна)

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Russia: Continues to use combined arms tactics, including ground assaults, artillery, MLRS, guided aerial bombs, and drones (including FPV and Lancets). Showcasing various military hardware in the Victory Day parade and claiming their effectiveness in the "special operation." The alleged participation of North Korean military personnel in Kursk combat operations, if true, represents a significant shift in force composition and potential tactics. Russian military bloggers offer insights into tactics and equipment usage, highlighting reliance on volunteer support and improvised weaponry. Russian forces are reportedly using S-300/S-400 mockups in the Far East, suggesting potential redeployments westward. Russia is highlighting the return of wounded soldiers to the front. Russian forces are repelling Ukrainian attempts to breach the border in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts, including the destruction of a Ukrainian bridge layer using drones. Russian forces are claiming 5026 violations of the ceasefire by Ukraine and reacting "mirror-like." Reports indicate a Russian reconnaissance UAV is correcting strikes on Shostka, Sumy Oblast. Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have struck enterprises of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex and unmanned boat control points before the declared ceasefire. Russian military blogger reports continued fighting on the Pokrovsk direction with Russian advances. Russian military blogger reports that despite the declared ceasefire, Ukraine is actively using strike and reconnaissance UAVs and conducting fire strikes, while Russian responses are pinpoint. They claim to have shot down numerous Ukrainian drones. A Russian military blogger reports an FPV drone attack by Russians on a civilian car in Zaporizhzhia district, resulting in injuries to two people. Russian military bloggers report advances on the Southern Donetsk direction, clearing the southern part of Bogatyr and expanding control near Kotlyarivka and Otradne. Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov presented "Gold Star" medals to commanders of the "Vostok" grouping, indicating their involvement in significant operations. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Liveuamap Source, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Военкор Котенок, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, Fighterbomber, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Сливочный каприз, Басурин о главном, Воин DV, Филолог в засаде, WarGonzo, Старше Эдды, Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц", STERNENKO, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Два майора, STERNENKO, РБК-Україна, Военкор Котенок, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Ukraine: Employing defensive and limited offensive tactics, including drone usage and resisting ground assaults across multiple axes. Reorganizing military structure to a corps system. Seeking international military aid and training. Utilizing specialized units (like SSO and Marine Corps). Focusing on technological advancement by recruiting AI specialists and showcasing new maritime drone developments with modular capabilities. Highlighted successful defensive actions in various sectors. A Ukrainian source reports a successful downing of a Russian "KUB" loitering munition by Southern Defense Forces. A graphic video reportedly shows a Russian soldier self-destructing after being targeted by a Ukrainian drone. Ukrainian forces are employing low-tech anti-personnel traps like "Egosa" barbed wire in certain areas. Ukrainian forces are reportedly attempting to breach the Russian border in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts, including the use of engineering equipment. Ukrainian forces also released a video reportedly showing a Russian infantryman being targeted by a Ukrainian drone near Velyka Novosilka, Donetsk Oblast. A Ukrainian source reports the detention of a Russian informant in Kharkiv who was collecting data on military bases. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС claims that the Ukrainian flag is flying in the center of Hormal', Kursk Oblast, and that the settlement is under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, suggesting a raid action. Ukrainian forces report repelling mechanized assaults on the Siversk direction, damaging Russian BMPs and tanks. A Ukrainian drone attacked the government building in Belgorod. DBR has detained the deputy rector of the National Academy of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, indicating internal security and anti-corruption efforts. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Сили оборони Півдня України, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno, Liveuamap Source, Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц", ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Два майора, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, ASTRA, Север.Реалии, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Rapid Support Forces (Sudan): Reportedly using kamikaze drones against Port Sudan.
M23 Movement (DRC): Reportedly continuing attacks despite agreements.

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The clear disregard for the declared ceasefire by Russian forces, combined with ongoing intense combat and attempts to advance across multiple axes, reinforces the assessment that Russia is not genuinely committed to de-escalation at this time. This necessitates continued high-level operational readiness and defensive efforts on the Ukrainian side. The acknowledgement of continued fighting by Russian military bloggers further supports this assessment. The Ukrainian report of repelling mechanized assaults on the Siversk direction and Russian claims of advances on the Southern Donetsk direction indicate continued active engagement across key fronts.
The persistent and high-intensity fighting in the Kursk and Belgorod border regions remains a key area of concern. The alleged participation of North Korean military personnel in combat operations in this area, if confirmed, and the official Russian statement about future commemoration, would represent a major strategic shift with potential implications for the scale and nature of future operations in border regions and could significantly escalate the international dimension of the conflict and potentially signal broader military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, which is further supported by the deepening ties acknowledged by Kim Jong Un and Maria Zakharova. Continued Ukrainian attempts to breach the border in these regions, and Russian defensive actions, indicate this area remains a significant focus for both sides. The Ukrainian claim of controlling Hormal', Kursk Oblast, if even temporarily true, would represent a successful raid action and a challenge to Russian border control, potentially aimed at diverting resources or demonstrating capability. The drone attack on the Belgorod government building highlights the continued vulnerability of Russian administrative centers in border regions and could be intended to disrupt governance and infrastructure, as well as serving as a psychological impact operation.
Russia's extensive use of Victory Day for propaganda and military showcase is a significant strategic effort aimed at consolidating domestic support, projecting an image of strength, and linking the current conflict to historical narratives. Countering this narrative and highlighting the disparity between the celebratory rhetoric and the reality of ongoing aggression is crucial for maintaining international support and undermining Russian information operations. Estonia's counter-propaganda efforts, the appearance of the "Kh..ylo" sculpture in Poland, and the Mayor of Vilnius's stance against celebrating Victory Day are notable examples of such counter-narratives. Reports of internal dissent and opposition to the government's Victory Day narrative in Moldova highlight the potential for information operations to exploit existing internal political friction in neighboring countries. The detention of individuals in Kyiv for displaying Soviet symbols underscores the contested nature of these symbols and narratives in Ukraine. TASS disseminating historical FSB documents alleging Ukrainian religious figures collaborated with fascists during WWII is a direct effort to weaponize history and demonize contemporary Ukraine. Russian military units participating in Victory Day commemorations from occupied territories is a clear propaganda tactic to legitimize their presence and actions. The drone attack on the Belgorod government building on Victory Day itself disrupts the carefully curated Russian narrative of celebration and security, providing a counter-narrative of vulnerability.
The uncovering of an alleged Hungarian military intelligence network in Zakarpattia Oblast introduces a new dimension of internal security risk and could impact regional relations and Ukraine's ability to secure its western borders. The Hungarian Foreign Minister's denial, framing it as "anti-Hungarian propaganda," highlights the political sensitivity of this issue.
The continued widespread use of drones and guided aerial bombs by Russia, as highlighted by their showcase in the Moscow parade and reports of their use in attacks, poses a persistent threat across Ukraine and requires continued focus on air defense capabilities. Ukraine's development of new maritime drones and the apparent high operational tempo of their drone usage highlight an evolving asymmetric warfare strategy. The reported use of a Russian reconnaissance UAV to correct strikes on Shostka indicates continued Russian targeting of civilian infrastructure and potentially military targets in border regions with aerial reconnaissance. The Russian military blogger's report of Russian FPV drone attack on a civilian car resulting in injuries underscores the humanitarian impact of drone warfare and potential targeting of civilian vehicles. Ukrainian forces utilizing drones to repel mechanized assaults on the Siversk direction and damaging Russian armor demonstrates the effectiveness of drones in tactical engagements. The Ukrainian drone attack on the government building in Belgorod highlights the strategic reach of Ukrainian drone capabilities. Russian military bloggers conducting fundraising for drones indicates the ongoing critical need for these assets at the tactical level.
Ongoing diplomatic engagements and international support for Ukraine, including the EU foreign ministers meeting in Lviv and the reported UK sanctions on Russia's "shadow fleet," remain crucial for Ukraine's defense capabilities, strategic positioning, and long-term recovery. Continued European support for heavily affected regions like Kharkiv is also vital. Lucashenko's statements regarding China and Russia's readiness for peace reflect efforts to shape the diplomatic narrative. The UK's announcement of its largest sanctions package yet targeting the "shadow fleet" is a significant economic pressure tactic. The new German Chancellor's threat of new sanctions and support for a ceasefire proposal with the aim of a "real peace treaty" indicates continued international efforts to find a diplomatic resolution, albeit with a threat of increased pressure if it fails. The absence of the US ambassador at the Victory Day parade signals continued diplomatic strain. EU Foreign Ministers approving the creation of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Russia is a significant step towards international legal accountability and could have long-term strategic implications for Russia. Lithuania's push for new and expanded EU sanctions indicates continued international pressure on Russia and the potential for further economic measures.
China's reported push for a "just, lasting, and binding peace agreement" in Ukraine, while still aligning with its general support for a peaceful resolution, could represent a subtle shift or a more active assertion of its own interests in global stability, potentially influencing the diplomatic landscape.
The continued reporting of civilian casualties and humanitarian issues, particularly in occupied territories like Mariupol and front-line towns like Kostiantynivka, underscores the significant human cost of the conflict and highlights the importance of international humanitarian efforts and accountability for alleged war crimes. The closure of essential services in Kostiantynivka demonstrates the devastating impact on civilian life in heavily shelled areas. The reported FPV drone attack on a civilian car in Zaporizhzhia district further highlights the risks to civilians from drone usage. The injuries sustained by civilians in the Belgorod government building attack, while in Russia, underscore the human cost of the conflict extending beyond the immediate front lines.
Ukraine's focus on recruiting AI specialists, discussions on personnel management, and recruitment for specialized units signal a strategic investment in technological superiority and adapting its forces for the long term. The full rollout of Russia's electronic subpoena registry across Russia suggests a strategic effort to streamline and significantly enhance their mobilization capabilities, indicating a preparedness for sustained or escalated conflict. DBR detaining the deputy rector of the National Academy of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine and the investigation into another MSEK official for corruption highlights ongoing efforts within Ukraine to address internal issues that could impact institutional effectiveness and public trust, which are important for long-term resilience.
Warnings from European leaders, such as the Prime Minister of the Netherlands regarding Russia's potential to build up forces for another war in Europe within 2-3 years, highlight the broader strategic implications of the conflict and the need for continued Western vigilance and preparedness.
Reports of Russia using S-300/S-400 mockups in the Far East while redeploying real systems westward could indicate strategic prioritization of forces towards the conflict in Ukraine, potentially creating vulnerabilities in other regions and highlighting the strain on Russia's overall military resources.
The focus on the psychological impact of the conflict and providing support for those affected is crucial for maintaining the long-term resilience and morale of the Ukrainian population and armed forces, which is a key strategic consideration in a protracted conflict. Messages emphasizing not imposing "heroism" and respecting the privacy of those who have been in captivity reflect an understanding of the psychological complexities of the conflict.
The Russian Ministry of Defense's claims of ceasefire violations by Ukraine and their stated "mirror-like" reaction suggest an effort to control the narrative around the ceasefire and justify continued military actions. This is part of the ongoing information war. Russian military bloggers also frame continued Ukrainian actions as violations despite the ceasefire.
The continued functioning of a medical college in a shelter in Zaporizhzhia highlights the resilience of educational institutions and efforts to maintain human capital development despite the conflict, which is a long-term strategic consideration.
The detention of a Russian informant in Kharkiv indicates ongoing counter-intelligence efforts by Ukraine to neutralize internal threats and prevent intelligence gathering by Russia.
A Russian military blogger's critical reflection on the causes of the current conflict, attributing it partly to past mistakes, suggests a level of internal debate and potential for questioning of the official narrative within Russia, which could have long-term implications for domestic support and political stability.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report