Sitrep 2025-05-09 10:10:58

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 9, 2025, 10:10 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational landscape continues to be dominated by intense ground combat across multiple axes, particularly in eastern and southern Ukraine, and the persistent, high-intensity fighting in the Kursk border region. A significant new development is the alleged participation of North Korean military personnel in combat operations in the Kursk region, directly acknowledged by Russian sources, with a Russian ambassador even suggesting future monuments in their honor. Russia is heavily leveraging Victory Day celebrations for internal and external propaganda, showcasing military hardware and emphasizing historical narratives, while Ukraine highlights its successful defensive actions and the continued disregard for any notion of a ceasefire by Russian forces. The uncovering of an alleged Hungarian military intelligence network in Zakarpattia Oblast adds a complex internal security dimension. Diplomatic activity continues, with EU foreign ministers meeting in Lviv and new discussions between Russia and China indicating a deepening strategic partnership, though with potential nuances regarding a "just" peace in Ukraine from the Chinese side. The humanitarian impact of the conflict remains significant, with continued civilian casualties and infrastructure damage reported. Ukraine is actively promoting recruitment into specialized units and highlighting the psychological impact of the conflict on its population. Russia is actively promoting its military veterans and highlighting their return to service. Reports of continued Ukrainian attempts to breach the Russian border in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts persist, met with Russian defensive actions, including the destruction of engineering equipment. The full launch of the Russian electronic subpoena registry across Russia marks a significant development in their mobilization capabilities. Civilian infrastructure in Ukrainian front-line areas, such as Kostiantynivka, continues to be severely impacted by the conflict, leading to the closure of essential services. Victory Day commemorations and associated information operations remain a prominent feature of the information environment on both sides.

Key developments include:

Continued Intense Ground Combat and Disregard for Ceasefire: Despite official Russian claims of a ceasefire, heavy ground fighting, shelling, and drone activity persist across numerous sectors, particularly Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Orikhiv, and the Dnipro (Kherson) directions. Ukrainian forces report repelling numerous assaults on each of these axes, with the Pokrovsk direction experiencing the highest number of engagements (71 repelled assaults in the previous reporting period). This reinforces the assessment that the declared ceasefire is largely an information operation. The head of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports over 200 shellings per day and over 620 strikes in the past week, directly contradicting Russian claims of a pause in hostilities. A Russian military blogger explicitly states that their forces continued to engage Ukrainian infantry attempting to advance near Tetkino in the Kursk region, despite the declared ceasefire. The Russian Ministry of Defense also claims 5026 violations of the ceasefire regime by Ukraine since its beginning and that Russian forces are reacting "mirror-like" and will act "adequately to the evolving situation."
Persistent and High-Intensity Activity in Kursk and Belgorod Border Regions: The Kursk and Belgorod border areas remain a focal point of intense fighting and reported Ukrainian cross-border attempts, met with significant Russian resistance. Ukrainian forces report repelling 19 Russian army assaults in the Kursk region in the previous reporting period. Russian aviation is reportedly conducting airstrikes in several settlements of Sumy Oblast, which borders Kursk. This indicates ongoing, high-stakes activity in this border area. Russian sources continue to report heavy losses for Ukrainian forces in this region. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims Ukrainian forces undertook four attempts to breach the Russian state border in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts during the declared ceasefire. Russian sources also report the destruction of a Ukrainian bridge layer near Pavlivka, Sumy Oblast, which they claim was intended to facilitate an advance towards the settlement of Novyi Put, highlighting Ukrainian attempts to breach the border using engineering equipment and Russian counter-efforts using drones.
Alleged North Korean Military Involvement in Kursk and Potential Commemoration: A significant new report from "Военкор Котенок" claims that Vladimir Putin personally thanked the command of North Korean military personnel for their participation in combat operations in Kursk Oblast after the Victory Day parade. While this report requires further verification, if true, it represents a major escalation in terms of direct foreign military involvement on the Russian side and could have significant geopolitical ramifications. Further supporting this claim, the Russian ambassador to North Korea stated that future monuments and streets in Kursk Oblast will be named in honor of the Korean People's Army fighters who participated in the liberation of the region from Ukrainian formations. This official statement significantly increases the credibility of the North Korean involvement claim and highlights a deliberate effort to acknowledge and commemorate their role.
Russian Victory Day Narrative, Propaganda, and Military Showcase: Russia is heavily leveraging Victory Day for internal and external propaganda, with military parades in Moscow featuring Russian troops (including those from the "special operation") and foreign contingents (China, Mongolia, Turkmenistan, North Korea), auto rallies in occupied territories (including Mariupol), and historical narratives linking the current conflict to WWII. Putin's speech at the Moscow parade emphasized national unity, support for participants in the "special military operation," and Russia's role as a barrier against Nazism and Russophobia. The parade showcased various military hardware, including tanks (T-90M, T-72B3M, T-80BVM), infantry fighting vehicles (BMP-1M, BMP-2M, BMP-3, Kurganets-25), airborne combat vehicles (BMD-4M), artillery (Msta-S, Malva, Hyacinth-K), MLRS (Tornado-S, Tosochka), operational-tactical missile systems (Iskander-M), and drone systems ("Geran" and "Lancet"). Rostec claims over 70% of the showcased weapons were developed and produced by their enterprises and are being supplied to the "special operation zone." This widespread commemoration serves to mobilize domestic support, project an image of strength and historical legitimacy, and implicitly link the current conflict to the victory over Nazi Germany. The presence of veterans from the "special military operation" on the central tribune further reinforces this link. Online "Immortal Regiment" marches and planned fireworks (with a map provided for Moscow) are also part of the celebrations. Lucashenko of Belarus praised the Moscow parade as the "best and strongest," and also stated that Russia has been ready to "not just declare a ceasefire, but conclude peace." The "Immortal Regiment" action was also held by Russian soldiers on their positions. Russian military bloggers are actively celebrating Victory Day and linking it to the current conflict.
Continued Drone and Aerial Activity: Widespread drone activity by both sides continues, with reports of Ukrainian drone attacks in Russian border regions and deep within Russia (though no attacks were reported on the Moscow parade as allegedly threatened by Zelenskyy), and Russian drone and guided aerial bomb attacks across numerous Ukrainian oblasts. Russian Ministry of Defense reports shooting down a significant number of Ukrainian UAVs. Ukrainian forces report shooting down a Russian "KUB" loitering munition in the South. The showcasing of "Geran" and "Lancet" drones in the Moscow parade highlights Russia's continued reliance on these systems. Ukrainian forces are also actively setting up anti-personnel traps using "Egosa" barbed wire to counter Russian infantry advances in areas like the Kupyansk direction, highlighting low-tech but effective tactics. Ukrainian sources highlight a high volume of Russian drone attacks (92 kamikaze drones) and shelling (451 attacks) in the Kharkiv operational zone in the past day. The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian tactical aviation in the southeastern direction with a threat of aerial guided munitions for frontline regions and missile danger for Sumy, Chernihiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Ukrainian sources also presented a video allegedly showing "traffic" among Ukrainian drones, implying a high operational tempo and competition among units for targets. Reports indicate a Russian reconnaissance UAV is correcting strikes on Shostka, Sumy Oblast.
Diplomatic Engagements and International Support: High-level diplomatic activity continues, including EU Foreign Ministers meeting in Lviv, Ukraine, demonstrating continued international support. They paid tribute to fallen Ukrainian defenders. Discussions on potential peace negotiations persist, with China's Xi Jinping reportedly urging Putin towards a "just, lasting, and binding peace agreement" acceptable to all parties, indicating a potential shift or nuance in China's public stance. Discussions on the creation of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine are ongoing. The UK is reportedly preparing new sanctions targeting 100 oil tankers in Russia's "shadow fleet." The head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration emphasized continued European support for the region, highlighting humanitarian aid and visits from various European countries. Estonia placed a banner on the Narva Castle wall facing Russia stating "Putin is a war criminal" in response to Russian Victory Day propaganda, highlighting continued tensions and counter-propaganda efforts. Lucashenko's statement about China being "definitely with Russia" due to Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow reflects a specific perspective on evolving geopolitical alliances.
Internal Russian Issues and Information Operations: Russian media is heavily focused on Victory Day celebrations and associated narratives, aiming to consolidate domestic support and link the current conflict to historical victories. Reports of ongoing investigations into high-ranking military officials and incidents in border regions continue to surface. The liquidation of an Uzbek ethnic organization in Moscow also suggests a focus on controlling domestic groups. Concerns about potential further Russian military buildup and conflict in Europe in the coming years are voiced by the Prime Minister of the Netherlands. Reports from occupied Mariupol highlight ongoing issues with property rights and displacement following the destruction caused by fighting, with residents protesting against the arbitrary actions of local authorities. The reopening of the railway station in occupied Donetsk for passenger traffic, the first time since 2014, is being presented by TASS as a sign of normalization. An incident at the "Light of Great Victory" installation in Volgograd resulted in a dangerous crowd crush, highlighting potential organizational issues during large public events. Russian sources are also highlighting stories of wounded soldiers returning to the front, such as the "Veles" fighter, as part of efforts to promote patriotism and military service. There are reports of temporary lifting of some traffic restrictions in Moscow following the parade. The removal of the "test mode" mention from the Russian electronic subpoena registry website is noted by a military news source, indicating a wider rollout of this system for mobilization across Russia. Vandalism of a monument to Marshal Malinovsky in Odesa is reported by Russian sources, framing it as an act of Ukrainian nationalism. Russian military bloggers are actively engaged in celebrating Victory Day and promoting their perspectives on the conflict, often linking it to historical narratives. Discussions about a "Religion of Victory" forming the basis of a new Russian ideology are also being presented. Russian state figures like Mikhail Mishustin are issuing congratulatory messages for Victory Day. Colonelcassad highlights the appearance of a fighter who allegedly won a knife fight against a Ukrainian soldier at the Victory Day parade.
Casualties and Humanitarian Impact: Civilian casualties continue to be reported on both sides, underscoring the ongoing human cost of the conflict. Reports from occupied Mariupol highlight ongoing issues with property rights and displacement following the destruction caused by fighting, forcing some residents to be "wandering around in apartments." Ukrainian sources are also emphasizing the psychological impact of the conflict on the population and providing advice on how to support those experiencing anxiety and the importance of respecting privacy and avoiding re-traumatization of those who have been in captivity. The closure of the last Nova Poshta branch in Kostiantynivka due to constant shelling highlights the severe impact on civilian life and the loss of essential services in front-line towns, even those providing basic necessities and a "point of invincibility" for locals.
Focus on Military Modernization and Personnel: Ukraine is actively recruiting AI specialists and discussing military service for women, indicating a focus on technological advancement and personnel management. Ukraine is also actively recruiting for specialized units like the 34th Marine Corps Coastal Defense Brigade and highlighting their combat role. Russia is showcasing modern military equipment, including drones and advanced artillery systems, in its Victory Day parade and claiming their effectiveness in the "special operation." Reports from Russian military bloggers continue to highlight the reliance on volunteer support for equipment and the use of improvised weaponry. The death of a police chief accused of corruption after joining the "SVO" suggests potential personnel practices related to addressing shortages. Russian sources are also highlighting the return of wounded soldiers to the front lines. Ukraine is showcasing new maritime drone developments like the "Seawolf" platform with various modular capabilities, including air defense and drone carrying, highlighting an increased focus on naval and asymmetric capabilities. Reports suggest Russia is using S-300/S-400 mockups in the Far East while real systems are redeployed west, indicating potential strains on their air defense network.
Belarusian Internal Security: The reported detention of the brother of journalist Ihor Losik in Belarus and the charges of "assisting extremist activity" for sharing photos of military equipment movements highlight the ongoing internal security crackdown and potential information control efforts in Belarus, which is closely aligned with Russia. Lucashenko's statements supporting Russia's position on peace talks are also relevant.
Iranian Drone Production: A Russian source highlights the presentation of a new underground Iranian drone production facility, stating they produce drones used for reconnaissance against US forces. While not directly related to the Ukraine conflict, it is relevant to the broader geopolitical landscape and potential sources of drone technology.
Moldovan Political Dynamics: Reports from a Russian military blogger highlighting protests in Moldova against the "pro-Western" government's stance on Victory Day and efforts to prevent people from participating in commemorations, framed as resisting the erasure of historical memory, indicate potential internal political friction and Russian information operations aimed at influencing public opinion in Moldova.
Anti-Russian Sentiment in Poland: The appearance of a sculpture named "Kh..ylo" at an exhibition on the territory of a Soviet soldiers' cemetery-mausoleum in Warsaw is a strong expression of anti-Russian sentiment in Poland and a counter-narrative to Russian historical narratives.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Pokrovsk Direction: Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat, with Ukrainian forces reporting repelling 71 assaults in the previous reporting period. (Liveuamap Source, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Novopavlivka Direction: Continues to experience intense ground combat, with Ukrainian forces reporting repelling 28 attacks in the previous reporting period. (Liveuamap Source, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Kursk Oblast (Russia) / Sumy Oblast (Ukraine Border): Continued high-intensity fighting persists, with Ukrainian forces reporting repelling 19 Russian army assaults in Kursk region. Russian aviation is reportedly conducting airstrikes on settlements in Sumy Oblast. A significant new claim alleges North Korean military participation in combat operations in Kursk, with an official Russian source stating future monuments will be named in their honor. Intense fighting near Tetkino is specifically mentioned by a Russian source. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims four attempts by Ukraine to breach the border in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts. Russian sources report the destruction of a Ukrainian bridge layer near Pavlivka, Sumy Oblast, intended for an advance towards Novyi Put. Civilian areas in Shostka and its suburbs are under rocket attack, reportedly corrected by a Russian reconnaissance UAV. (Liveuamap Source, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Военкор Котенок, Liveuamap Source, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Два майора, STERNENKO, РБК-Україна)
Lyman Direction: Continues to experience intense ground combat, with Ukrainian forces reporting repelling 27 attacks near Nadiya, Novoyehorivka, Ridkodub, Hrekivka, Novomykhaylivka, Kolodyazi, Zelena Dolyna and Torske in the previous reporting period. (Liveuamap Source, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Siversk Direction: Experienced engagements near Bilohorivka and Fedorivka, with Ukrainian forces reporting repelling five assaults in the previous reporting period. Positional combat is also reported near Verkhnokamyanske. (Liveuamap Source, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Сливочный каприз)
Toretsk Direction: Experienced engagements near Krymske and Toretsk, with Ukrainian forces reporting repelling nine attacks in the previous reporting period. (Liveuamap Source, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Kramatorsk Direction: Experienced engagements near Chasiv Yar and Kurdumivka, with six engagements recorded in the previous reporting period. (Liveuamap Source, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Orikhiv Direction: Experienced intense ground combat near Stepove and Scherbaky, with Ukrainian forces reporting repelling three assaults in the previous reporting period. (Liveuamap Source, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Dnipro (Kherson) Direction: Experienced unsuccessful Russian attempts to advance, with Ukrainian forces reporting repelling five assaults in the previous reporting period. (Liveuamap Source, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Kharkiv Direction: Experienced clashes near Vovchansk, with Ukrainian forces reporting repelling four attacks in the previous reporting period. Clashes also reported near Synkivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka and towards Novoosynove in the Kupyansk direction. Ukrainian forces are also deploying anti-personnel traps ("Egosa" barbed wire) in the Kupyansk direction. Ukrainian sources highlight a high volume of Russian drone attacks (92 kamikaze drones) and shelling (451 attacks) in the Kharkiv operational zone in the past day. (Liveuamap Source, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦)
Verkhnokamyanske (Donetsk/Luhansk Border): Positional combat is reported, with Russian sources claiming to have occupied new positions in residential areas and expanded their control in the central part of the settlement. (Сливочный каприз)
Lviv (Ukraine): EU Foreign Ministers are meeting here for an informal meeting and have paid tribute to fallen Ukrainian defenders. Discussions on creating a special tribunal for the crime of aggression are underway. (Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Mariupol (occupied): Reports highlight ongoing issues with property rights and displacement for residents whose homes were destroyed, with residents protesting local authorities. Auto rallies in honor of Victory Day are also taking place. (ASTRA, Mash на Донбассе)
Moscow (Russia): Center of the city was the site of the Victory Day parade, featuring military hardware and foreign contingents. Putin delivered a speech and interacted with parade participants and foreign guests, including alleged North Korean military command and veterans of the "special operation." Online "Immortal Regiment" marches and planned fireworks (with a map provided for Moscow) are part of celebrations. Temporary lifting of some traffic restrictions is reported. Heightened security measures were in place at Sheremetyevo Airport. (Новости Москвы, MoD Russia, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, ASTRA, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, Fighterbomber, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Басурин о главном, Воин DV, Филолог в засаде, WarGonzo, Старше Эдды)
Russian Cities (various): Locations where Victory Day celebrations, including online "Immortal Regiment" marches and planned fireworks, are taking place. The "Immortal Regiment" action was also held with aviation participation in Khanty-Mansiysk. Commemorative events are taking place in Kursk despite restrictions. (ТАСС, Новости Москвы, Басурин о главном, Филолог в засаде, WarGonzo)
Donetsk/Luhansk (occupied): Auto rallies and cultural events are being held in honor of Victory Day. The railway station in Donetsk has reportedly reopened for passenger traffic. A sculpture named "Kh..ylo" appeared at an exhibition at a Soviet soldiers' cemetery-mausoleum in Warsaw. (Mash на Донbasse, Воин DV, ТАСС, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦)
Transcarpathia (Ukraine): Location where a criminal organization involved in illegally transporting draft evaders was exposed. Alleged Hungarian military intelligence network also uncovered here. (Офіс Генерального прокурора, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Belarus: Relevant due to the reported detention of the brother of a journalist who allegedly shared photos of military equipment movements. Lucashenko praised the Moscow Victory Day parade and stated Russia is ready for peace. (Север.Реалии, ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Odesa (Ukraine): Vandalism targeting a monument to Marshal Rodion Malinovsky is reported by Russian sources. (ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Volgograd (Russia): Incident at the "Light of Great Victory" installation on Mamayev Kurgan resulted in a crowd crush. (ASTRA)
Germany: Location of local demonstrations for Victory Day and discussions on restrictions related to Russian symbols, highlighting geopolitical tensions. A Russian military blogger commented on the appointment of Friedrich Merz as Federal Chancellor, predicting increased militarization and anti-Russian policy. (Рыбарь, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Estonia: Placed a banner on Narva Castle stating "Putin is a war criminal" in response to Russian propaganda. (✙DeepState✙🇺🇦)
Kostiantynivka (Donetsk Oblast): The last Nova Poshta branch has closed due to constant shelling, highlighting the severe impact on civilian infrastructure and essential services. (РБК-Україна)
Moldova: Reports from a Russian military blogger highlight protests against the government's stance on Victory Day and alleged efforts to prevent participation in commemorations. (Два майора)
Warsaw (Poland): A sculpture named "Kh..ylo" appeared at an exhibition on the territory of a Soviet soldiers' cemetery-mausoleum. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Extensive drone activity continues on both sides, with significant numbers of drones reported used and intercepted. Ukrainian drone attacks are reported in Russian border regions and potentially deeper within Russia. Russian drone and guided aerial bomb attacks are reported across numerous Ukrainian oblasts. Ukrainian forces report shooting down a Russian "KUB" loitering munition in the South. The showcasing of "Geran" and "Lancet" drones in the Moscow parade highlights Russia's continued reliance on these systems. Ukrainian forces report a high volume of Russian kamikaze drone attacks (92) in the Kharkiv operational zone. Ukrainian sources highlight apparent "traffic" among their own drones, suggesting a high operational tempo. Ukrainian forces are showcasing the development of new maritime drones like the "Seawolf" with various modular capabilities. Reports indicate a Russian reconnaissance UAV is correcting strikes on Shostka, Sumy Oblast. Russian sources report the destruction of a Ukrainian bridge layer near Pavlivka, Sumy Oblast, by drone operators. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Liveuamap Source, STERNENKO, Военкор Котенок, Colonelcassad, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, STERNENKO, РБК-Україна)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Russian tactical aviation launched guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting settlements in Sumy Oblast and reportedly used 17 guided bombs in air strikes in the Kursk region in the previous reporting period. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of aerial guided munitions for frontline regions from Russian tactical aviation in the southeastern direction. (Liveuamap Source, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Missile Activity: Russian Ministry of Defense reports shooting down Ukrainian missiles and projectiles. Operational-tactical missile systems "Iskander-M" were showcased in the Moscow parade. The Ukrainian Air Force reports missile danger for Sumy, Chernihiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. A missile was reported in the Donetsk region moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, specifically the Synelnykove district. Shostka and its suburbs in Sumy Oblast are under rocket attack, reportedly corrected by a Russian reconnaissance UAV. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Liveuamap Source, Colonelcassad, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, STERNENKO, РБК-Україна)
Naval Activity: The UK is reportedly preparing new sanctions targeting 100 oil tankers in Russia's "shadow fleet," which could impact Russia's ability to export oil and fund its war effort. Ukraine is showcasing new modular maritime drones ("Seawolf") with potential air defense, electronic warfare, mine-laying, and drone-carrying capabilities. (Оперативний ЗСУ, Два майора)
Aviation: Russian aviation continues to conduct air strikes, particularly in Sumy and Kursk Oblasts and across Ukrainian oblasts. Russian combat aircraft, including Su-30 and MiG-29, and Su-25 attack aircraft participated in the Moscow parade. The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian tactical aviation in the southeastern direction. The "Immortal Regiment" action in Khanty-Mansiysk involved aviation participation. (Liveuamap Source, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Fighterbomber, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ТАСС)
Artillery and MLRS Activity: High levels of artillery and MLRS fire continue on both sides, resulting in casualties and damage. Ukrainian General Staff reports extensive shelling by Russia, including 274 artillery bombardments and six from MLRS in the Kursk region in the previous reporting period. Artillery systems (Msta-S, Malva, Hyacinth-K) and MLRS (Tornado-S, Tosochka) were showcased in the Moscow parade. Ukrainian forces report 451 shelling attacks in the Kharkiv operational zone in the past day. (Liveuamap Source, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Colonelcassad, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Victory Day Narratives: Both Russia and Ukraine are actively using Victory Day for propaganda. Russia emphasizes historical significance and links the current conflict to WWII, showcasing military power and foreign support (including contingents from China, Mongolia, Turkmenistan, and North Korea in the Moscow parade). Ukraine emphasizes its contribution and counters Russian narratives, highlighting sacrifices and seeking international solidarity. The ban of Russian Victory Day symbols and events in Kazakhstan highlights geopolitical tensions and the contested nature of historical narratives. Estonia's counter-propaganda banner in Narva also highlights this. Lucashenko of Belarus praised the Moscow parade as the "best and strongest" and stated Russia is ready for peace. Russian figures like Mishustin are issuing Victory Day congratulations. Reports highlight local Victory Day demonstrations in Germany where participants defied restrictions on Russian symbols. Reports from a Russian military blogger highlight protests in Moldova against the government's stance on Victory Day and alleged efforts to prevent participation in commemorations. The appearance of a sculpture named "Kh..ylo" at an exhibition on the territory of a Soviet soldiers' cemetery-mausoleum in Warsaw is a strong expression of anti-Russian sentiment in Poland. (ТАСС, Новости Москвы, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, ASTRA, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, Fighterbomber, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Mash на Донбассе, Басурин о главном, Воин DV, Филолог в засаде, WarGonzo, Старше Эдды, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, Рыбарь, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ)
EU-Ukraine Relations: EU Foreign Ministers are meeting in Ukraine. Discussions on creating a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Russia are underway. The head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration emphasized continued European support for the region. (Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА)
Russian-Chinese Relations: Discussions between Putin and Xi Jinping are focused on deepening economic cooperation and strategic interaction. They signed documents on comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction. Putin stated that relations have reached their highest level. Xi Jinping reportedly urged Putin towards a "just, lasting, and binding peace agreement" acceptable to all parties, suggesting a potential nuanced position from China on the conflict's resolution. Discussions on the "Power of Siberia - 2" gas pipeline are progressing. Lucashenko's statement about China being "definitely with Russia" due to Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow reflects a specific perspective on evolving geopolitical alliances. (ТАСС, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Colonelcassad, ТАСС)
Ukraine's Peace Stance and Mediation: Ukrainian officials reiterate their readiness for a ceasefire to enable peace talks, emphasizing the need for a strong international stance to pressure Russia. Discussions on a potential 30-day ceasefire based on a proposal resembling Trump's idea are reported. China's stance on a "just" peace is also noted. Lucashenko stated Russia is ready for peace. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ)
UK Sanctions: The UK is reportedly poised to impose sanctions on 100 oil tankers in Russia's "shadow fleet." (Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Hungarian-Ukrainian Relations: Diplomatic friction continues. Ukraine's SBU claims to have uncovered a Hungarian military intelligence agent network in Zakarpattia Oblast. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Netherlands: The Prime Minister of the Netherlands warns that Russia could build up forces for another war in Europe within 2-3 years, emphasizing the need for Europe to work actively to prevent Russian aggression. (РБК-Україна)
Switzerland: A Swiss court has approved a settlement for the Nord Stream 2 operator and its creditors. (ТАСС)
Belarus: The reported detention of the brother of a journalist for allegedly sharing photos of military equipment movements highlights internal security measures and potential information control efforts. Lucashenko praised the Moscow parade and stated Russia is ready for peace. (Север.Реалии, ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Armenia: Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's alleged presence at the Moscow parade and taking the parade of an "Azerbaijani Commando brigade" is reported by a Russian source, which if true, could be a significant and potentially provocative act in the context of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations and their respective ties to Russia. (Военкор Котенок)
Germany: The appointment of Friedrich Merz as Federal Chancellor is noted, with Russian commentary predicting increased militarization and anti-Russian policy. (STERNENKO, ТАСС, Рыбарь)
Moldova: Reports from a Russian military blogger highlight protests against the government's stance on Victory Day and alleged efforts to prevent participation in commemorations. (Два майора)
Poland: The appearance of a sculpture named "Kh..ylo" at an exhibition on the territory of a Soviet soldiers' cemetery-mausoleum in Warsaw is a strong expression of anti-Russian sentiment. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦)

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security Concerns: Potential disconnection of mobile internet and cellular service in Moscow on May 9th for security reasons was reported. Widespread internet outages attributed to counter-drone measures have been reported previously. ASTRA reports the death of a military medical commission head in Sevastopol due to an accidental self-inflicted gunshot wound during an attack in the previous reporting period. The liquidation of an Uzbek ethnic organization in Moscow also suggests a focus on controlling domestic groups. The showcasing of drone systems like "Geran" and "Lancet" in the parade implicitly acknowledges the threat posed by Ukrainian drones. An incident at the "Light of Great Victory" installation in Volgograd resulted in a dangerous crowd crush. Heightened security measures were in place at Sheremetyevo Airport in Moscow. Commemorative events are taking place in Kursk despite restrictions. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Alex Parker Returns, Север.Реалии, ASTRA, Новости Москвы, ТАСС)
Impact of Ukrainian Attacks: Reports of ongoing investigations into high-ranking military officials and incidents in border regions continue to surface. Reports from occupied Mariupol highlight ongoing issues with property rights and displacement following the destruction caused by fighting, with residents protesting local authorities. Ukrainian drone attacks are reported in Russian border regions, and the Belgorod region's air defense was reportedly active during the night of Victory Day. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims four attempts by Ukraine to breach the border in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts during the declared ceasefire. (ASTRA, Старше Эдды, ТАСС)
Youth Engagement: Increased membership in "Yunarmia" has been reported previously. Yuunarmiya members participated in the Moscow parade. (ТАСС, AV БогомаZ)
Casualties: Civilian casualties continue to be reported in areas subjected to Russian shelling and aerial attacks. ASTRA reports ongoing issues with property rights and displacement for residents whose homes were destroyed in Mariupol, implicitly highlighting the casualties and displacement caused by fighting. The death of a police chief accused of corruption after joining the "SVO" is reported, highlighting the human cost and potential personnel practices. Russian sources are also highlighting stories of wounded soldiers returning to the front, such as the "Veles" fighter. Colonelcassad highlights the appearance of a fighter who allegedly won a knife fight against a Ukrainian soldier at the Victory Day parade. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, ASTRA, Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц", Басурин о главном, Colonelcassad)
Domestic Issues: Reports of expired marmalade given as Victory Day gifts to pensioners in Saratov Oblast were reported previously. Ongoing issues with property rights and displacement in occupied Mariupol highlight the challenges in managing occupied territories. The reopening of the railway station in occupied Donetsk is presented as a sign of normalization. An incident at a public event in Volgograd resulted in a crowd crush. (ASTRA, ТАСС, ASTRA)
Information Operations: Significant effort is being put into promoting Victory Day narratives and countering perceived negative portrayals. Russian state media and military bloggers are actively covering the parades and celebrations and promoting associated narratives, linking the current conflict to WWII. Discussions about a "Religion of Victory" forming the basis of a new Russian ideology are being presented. Russian sources are also highlighting stories of wounded soldiers returning to the front and reporting on vandalism of Soviet monuments in Ukraine. Reports highlight local Victory Day demonstrations in Germany where participants defied restrictions on Russian symbols. Reports from a Russian military blogger highlight protests in Moldova against the government's stance on Victory Day and alleged efforts to prevent participation in commemorations. The appearance of a sculpture named "Kh..ylo" at an exhibition on the territory of a Soviet soldiers' cemetery-mausoleum in Warsaw is a strong expression of anti-Russian sentiment in Poland. (ТАСС, Новости Москвы, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, Fighterbomber, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Mash на Донбассе, Басурин о главном, Воин DV, Филолог в засаде, WarGonzo, Старше Эдды, Басурин о главном, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Рыбарь, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦)
Security Measures: Temporary mobile internet restrictions and airport closures have been reported previously. The signing of an order for Victory Day fireworks by the new Minister of Defense indicates a continuation of ceremonial military traditions. Heightened security measures at Moscow airports were in place for Victory Day. Temporary lifting of some traffic restrictions in Moscow is reported. (ТАСС, Новости Москвы, Colonelcassad)
Political Dynamics: Political figures are participating in Victory Day events and making statements. The potential senatorial appointment of the widow of a general indicates ongoing political processes and potential ties between the military and political spheres. Mikhail Mishustin issued a congratulatory message for Victory Day. Lucashenko of Belarus praised the Moscow parade and stated Russia is ready for peace. Colonelcassad commented on the appointment of Friedrich Merz as Federal Chancellor of Germany. (ТАСС, AV БогомаZ, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, Рыбарь)
Logistics: Reports from military bloggers continue to highlight the reliance on volunteer support for equipment and the use of improvised weaponry, hinting at ongoing logistical challenges. (Военкор Котенок)
Military-Industrial Complex: Rostec claims that over 70% of the weapons showcased in the Victory Day parade were developed and produced by their enterprises and are being supplied to the "special operation zone," emphasizing the role of the military-industrial complex in supporting the war effort. (Colonelcassad)
Mobilization System: The removal of the "test mode" mention from the Russian electronic subpoena registry website indicates a wider rollout of this system for mobilization across Russia. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Новости Москвы)
Air Defense Readiness: Reports suggesting Russia is using S-300/S-400 mockups in the Far East while real systems are redeployed west could indicate potential strains on their air defense network's overall readiness. (STERNENKO)

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Financial Support: Ukraine received EU financial aid from frozen Russian assets. Fundraising efforts continue for military units on both sides, with a specific request for equipment for SSO fighters in Ukraine being highlighted with incentives for donors. (РБК-Україна, Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц", Военкор Котенок)
Military Aid: Discussions on military aid continue at high levels. Romania and the Netherlands are establishing a training center for Ukrainian F-16 technical personnel. The showcase of military equipment in the Moscow parade and the claims by Rostec about supplying the "special operation zone" highlight Russia's continued military production efforts. The UK is reportedly preparing new sanctions targeting 100 Russian oil tankers. Ukraine is showcasing new modular maritime drone developments. (Сили оборони Півдня України, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора)
Military Personnel Welfare: Russia is providing support for wounded soldiers and their families and showcasing veterans at the Victory Day parade. Ukraine is discussing military service for women and providing educational support for children of security and defense forces personnel. Russian sources are also highlighting stories of wounded soldiers returning to the front lines. Ukrainian sources are providing advice on supporting those affected by the conflict and emphasizing not imposing "heroism" and respecting the privacy of those who have been in captivity. (Рыбарь, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), ТАСС, Басурин о главном, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими)
Humanitarian Situation: Civilian casualties continue to be reported due to shelling and aerial attacks. Reports from occupied Mariupol highlight ongoing issues with property rights and displacement for residents whose homes were destroyed. Ukraine's "e-Restoration" program for damaged housing continues to provide aid. The closure of the last Nova Poshta branch in Kostiantynivka due to constant shelling highlights the severe impact on civilian life and the loss of essential services. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, ASTRA, РБК-Україна)
Infrastructure Restoration: Ukraine continues efforts to restore critical infrastructure damaged by the conflict, including public transport in cities like Kryvyi Rih. The reopening of the railway station in occupied Donetsk is reported by TASS. The closure of the last Nova Poshta branch in Kostiantynivka highlights the severe impact on civilian infrastructure. (Олександр Вілкул, ТАСС, РБК-Україна)

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Russia: Continues to use combined arms tactics, including ground assaults, artillery, MLRS, guided aerial bombs, and drones (including FPV and Lancets). Showcasing various military hardware in the Victory Day parade and claiming their effectiveness in the "special operation." The alleged participation of North Korean military personnel in Kursk combat operations, if true, represents a significant shift in force composition and potential tactics. Russian military bloggers offer insights into tactics and equipment usage, highlighting reliance on volunteer support and improvised weaponry. Russian forces are reportedly using S-300/S-400 mockups in the Far East, suggesting potential redeployments westward. Russia is highlighting the return of wounded soldiers to the front. Russian forces are repelling Ukrainian attempts to breach the border in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts, including the destruction of a Ukrainian bridge layer using drones. Russian forces are claiming 5026 violations of the ceasefire by Ukraine and reacting "mirror-like." Reports indicate a Russian reconnaissance UAV is correcting strikes on Shostka, Sumy Oblast. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Liveuamap Source, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Военкор Котенок, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, Fighterbomber, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Сливочный каприз, Басурин о главном, Воин DV, Филолог в засаде, WarGonzo, Старше Эдды, Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц", STERNENKO, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Два майора, STERNENKO, РБК-Україна)
Ukraine: Employing defensive and limited offensive tactics, including drone usage and resisting ground assaults across multiple axes. Reorganizing military structure to a corps system. Seeking international military aid and training. Utilizing specialized units (like SSO and Marine Corps). Focusing on technological advancement by recruiting AI specialists and showcasing new maritime drone developments with modular capabilities. Highlighted successful defensive actions in various sectors. A Ukrainian source reports a successful downing of a Russian "KUB" loitering munition by Southern Defense Forces. A graphic video reportedly shows a Russian soldier self-destructing after being targeted by a Ukrainian drone. Ukrainian forces are employing low-tech anti-personnel traps like "Egosa" barbed wire in certain areas. Ukrainian forces are reportedly attempting to breach the Russian border in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts, including the use of engineering equipment. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Сили оборони Півдня України, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno, Liveuamap Source, Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц", ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Два майора)
Rapid Support Forces (Sudan): Reportedly using kamikaze drones against Port Sudan.
M23 Movement (DRC): Reportedly continuing attacks despite agreements.

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The clear disregard for the declared ceasefire by Russian forces, combined with ongoing intense combat and attempts to advance across multiple axes, reinforces the assessment that Russia is not genuinely committed to de-escalation at this time. This necessitates continued high-level operational readiness and defensive efforts on the Ukrainian side.
The persistent and high-intensity fighting in the Kursk and Belgorod border regions remains a key area of concern. The alleged participation of North Korean military personnel in combat operations in this area, if confirmed, and the official Russian statement about future commemoration, would represent a major strategic shift with potential implications for the scale and nature of future operations in border regions and could significantly escalate the international dimension of the conflict and potentially signal broader military cooperation between Russia and North Korea. Continued Ukrainian attempts to breach the border in these regions, and Russian defensive actions, indicate this area remains a significant focus for both sides.
Russia's extensive use of Victory Day for propaganda and military showcase is a significant strategic effort aimed at consolidating domestic support, projecting an image of strength, and linking the current conflict to historical narratives. Countering this narrative and highlighting the disparity between the celebratory rhetoric and the reality of ongoing aggression is crucial for maintaining international support and undermining Russian information operations. Estonia's counter-propaganda efforts and the appearance of the "Kh..ylo" sculpture in Poland are notable examples of such counter-narratives. Reports of internal dissent and opposition to the government's Victory Day narrative in Moldova highlight the potential for information operations to exploit existing internal political friction in neighboring countries.
The uncovering of an alleged Hungarian military intelligence network in Zakarpattia Oblast introduces a new dimension of internal security risk and could impact regional relations and Ukraine's ability to secure its western borders.
The continued widespread use of drones and guided aerial bombs by Russia, as highlighted by their showcase in the Moscow parade and reports of their use in attacks, poses a persistent threat across Ukraine and requires continued focus on air defense capabilities. Ukraine's development of new maritime drones and the apparent high operational tempo of their drone usage highlight an evolving asymmetric warfare strategy. The reported use of a Russian reconnaissance UAV to correct strikes on Shostka indicates continued Russian targeting of civilian infrastructure and potentially military targets in border regions with aerial reconnaissance.
Ongoing diplomatic engagements and international support for Ukraine, including the EU foreign ministers meeting in Lviv and the reported UK sanctions on Russia's "shadow fleet," remain crucial for Ukraine's defense capabilities, strategic positioning, and long-term recovery. Continued European support for heavily affected regions like Kharkiv is also vital. Lucashenko's statements regarding China and Russia's readiness for peace reflect efforts to shape the diplomatic narrative.
China's reported push for a "just, lasting, and binding peace agreement" in Ukraine, while still aligning with its general support for a peaceful resolution, could represent a subtle shift or a more active assertion of its own interests in global stability, potentially influencing the diplomatic landscape.
The continued reporting of civilian casualties and humanitarian issues, particularly in occupied territories like Mariupol and front-line towns like Kostiantynivka, underscores the significant human cost of the conflict and highlights the importance of international humanitarian efforts and accountability for alleged war crimes. The closure of essential services in Kostiantynivka demonstrates the devastating impact on civilian life in heavily shelled areas.
Ukraine's focus on recruiting AI specialists, discussions on personnel management, and recruitment for specialized units signal a strategic investment in technological superiority and adapting its forces for the long term. The full rollout of Russia's electronic subpoena registry across Russia suggests a strategic effort to streamline and significantly enhance their mobilization capabilities, indicating a preparedness for sustained or escalated conflict.
Warnings from European leaders, such as the Prime Minister of the Netherlands regarding Russia's potential to build up forces for another war in Europe within 2-3 years, highlight the broader strategic implications of the conflict and the need for continued Western vigilance and preparedness.
Reports of Russia using S-300/S-400 mockups in the Far East while redeploying real systems westward could indicate strategic prioritization of forces towards the conflict in Ukraine, potentially creating vulnerabilities in other regions and highlighting the strain on Russia's overall military resources.
The focus on the psychological impact of the conflict and providing support for those affected is crucial for maintaining the long-term resilience and morale of the Ukrainian population and armed forces, which is a key strategic consideration in a protracted conflict. Messages emphasizing not imposing "heroism" and respecting the privacy of those who have been in captivity reflect an understanding of the psychological complexities of the conflict.
The Russian Ministry of Defense's claims of ceasefire violations by Ukraine and their stated "mirror-like" reaction suggest an effort to control the narrative around the ceasefire and justify continued military actions. This is part of the ongoing information war.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report