Sitrep 2025-05-08 20:35:09

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 8, 2025, 20:34 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational landscape remains characterized by intense ground combat across key axes, particularly Pokrovsk, Lyman, and Novopavlivka. A declared Russian ceasefire for Victory Day is reportedly not being universally observed, with continued fighting reported. The Kursk border region remains a hotbed of activity, with conflicting claims of Ukrainian attempts to breach Russian defenses and Russian reports of repelling these assaults and inflicting losses. Russian aerial activity persists across numerous Ukrainian oblasts, involving drones and ballistic missiles, with ongoing air raid alerts. Ukrainian drone attacks continue to target Russian industrial and military facilities. Tragically, civilian casualties continue to be reported on both sides.

Diplomatic and information operations are ongoing. Ukraine has received significant tranches of EU financial aid derived from frozen Russian assets, with more expected for arms procurement. Political discussions regarding potential peace negotiations continue, with figures like Donald Trump suggesting mediation. Ukraine has ratified an economic partnership agreement with the US concerning minerals. A new Pope has been elected, a global event with potential, albeit currently unclear, diplomatic implications. Internal Russian issues include security incidents and heavy information campaigning around Victory Day. Russia is also engaging in military diplomatic meetings with countries like Kazakhstan in the lead-up to Victory Day.

New significant updates and analysis from the latest messages (past few minutes):

Ukraine Proposes 30-Day Ceasefire and Readiness for Negotiations: Zelenskiy / Official, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report on a conversation between President Zelenskyy and former President Trump. Zelenskyy informed Trump about the battlefield situation and stated that Ukraine is ready for a 30-day ceasefire starting immediately, contingent on Russia's agreement and demonstration of serious intent by a complete and unconditional cessation of fire. Zelenskyy also confirmed that Ukraine is ready for negotiations in any format. Trump reportedly confirmed his desire to see the war end, willingness to help, and support for the need for a ceasefire, with further contacts agreed upon. This is a significant diplomatic move by Ukraine, proposing a concrete step towards de-escalation and outlining conditions for potential peace talks, with noted international engagement.
Continued Contested Fighting in Kursk Border Region (Tetkino, Novy Put): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА provides an update on the situation in Kursk Oblast at the end of May 8th, stating that the situation remained the same as in the morning, with Ukrainian attempts to attack Russian positions on the Novy Put and Tetkino sectors. They claim that near Novy Put, Ukrainian forces used one mine-clearing vehicle and assault troops on five quad bikes, with all equipment destroyed. In the Tetkino area, they claim an attempt to break through the state border with 3 units of equipment was repelled, resulting in the destruction of three infantry fighting vehicles. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА also provides a total claimed count of destroyed Ukrainian equipment for the day: 5 tanks, 6 armored combat vehicles (BB), 7 armored personnel carriers (BTR), 1 mine-clearing vehicle (UR), 7 pickup trucks, 19 quad bikes, 8 motorcycles, and 1 buggy. They attribute the Ukrainian use of various light vehicles to improved weather conditions but state it did not help. This report from a Russian military blogger continues to emphasize claimed successful Russian defense and significant Ukrainian equipment losses in the Kursk border region, painting a picture of unsuccessful Ukrainian attempts to breach the border despite utilizing various vehicle types.
Russian Claims of Continued Advances on the Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia Front): Военкор Котенок reports on the situation on the Orikhiv direction ("Bogatyr" direction), claiming that the "Vostok" Group of Forces continued to storm Bogatyr until the declared ceasefire began, significantly advancing in the eastern part of the settlement and consolidating in the southern part. They also claim that in the area of Otradnoye, Russian units approached the southeastern part, repelling repeated Ukrainian counterattacks with armored vehicles. Furthermore, they claim Russian units significantly advanced southwest of Otradnoye towards Komar, pushing back Ukrainian forces from "Dniproenergiya." Intense встречные бои (meeting engagements/battles) are reported in the area of Veseloye - Fyodorovka. This report from a Russian military blogger claims continued Russian tactical gains on the Orikhiv direction, emphasizing control over parts of Bogatyr and advances towards Komar and Dniproenergiya, alongside successful repulsion of Ukrainian counterattacks.
Widespread Internet Outages in Russia Attributed to Counter-Drone Measures: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 states that the internet and communication are saying goodbye across the entire country, and everyone understands the reason. This directly follows previous reports of widespread internet outages and reinforces the link between these disruptions and security measures against Ukrainian drone attacks.
Russian Official Media Highlights Victory Day Guests and Menu: ТАСС reports on the ceremonial dinner for foreign leaders and other honored guests in the Kremlin on the evening of May 8th in the lead-up to the Victory Day parade. The report mentions leaders from about three dozen countries attended and provides details on the menu, including sturgeon dumplings and borscht. Alex Parker Returns also shares photos of the menu, highlighting the inclusion of wines from "Crimea, Russia" and "Krasnodar Krai, Russia," implicitly linking them to Russian territorial claims and strategic regions. This highlights ongoing Russian diplomatic engagement centered around Victory Day and the use of such events for symbolic messaging.
German President Rejects Russian Narrative on Ukraine Conflict: Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video where German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier states that Germany resolutely opposes the Kremlin's historical lies and that the war against Ukraine is not a continuation of the fight against fascism. He emphasizes that Putin's aggression against a democratically free country has nothing in common with the fight against the tyranny of the NSDAP during World War II. This is a significant statement from a key international leader directly challenging the Russian narrative surrounding the conflict.
Russian Information Operation on Ukrainian Casualties: Colonelcassad shares photos claiming to show deceased Ukrainian soldiers on the Donetsk section of the front. The accompanying text refers to it as a "horrifying picture" and questions the purpose of their deaths, attributing it to the "zombification of the Ukrainian people." This is a clear Russian information operation aimed at highlighting Ukrainian casualties, questioning the motivation of Ukrainian soldiers, and framing the conflict through a negative lens for the Ukrainian side.
Russian Military Blogger Rhetoric: «Зона СВО» shares a message with a strong anti-enemy sentiment, asking "Can we forgive the enemy?" and answering "God will forgive! Our task is to organize their meeting.." This reflects a harsh and unforgiving stance towards the opposing forces within a segment of the Russian military blogosphere.
Continued Intense Fighting in Kursk Border Region (Tetkino): Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims Russian paratroopers, reconnaissance, and aerospace forces conducted a "powerful strike" on a group of approximately 40 Ukrainian forces ("militants") on the outskirts of the abandoned settlement of Tetkino. This directly contradicts the notion of a full ceasefire and highlights the intensity of the fighting in this border area, suggesting a specific engagement with reported Ukrainian personnel losses.
Continued Russian Offensive Efforts near Pokrovsk: Сливочный каприз reports positional combat operations near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), claiming that Russian forces advanced over 1 km in the settlement of Pershe-Travnya (Leontovychi) towards Krasnoarmeysk and occupied new positions in the central part of the settlement. They include a geotagged video showing a Russian forward position in a residential area under Ukrainian drone fire. This indicates continued Russian offensive efforts and claimed tactical gains on the Pokrovsk axis, despite the declared ceasefire.
Russian Civil Aviation Returning to Normal Operations: ASTRA reports that the Russian Ministry of Transport announced that Russian airlines have restored their schedules after transport disruptions caused by drone attacks. This includes carriers responsible for 96% of passenger transport, returning to regular schedules for the spring-summer navigation period. Turkish Airlines is also expected to fully resume flights to Russia from May 9th. The disruptions on May 6th-7th were attributed to restrictions on airspace use, primarily around Moscow airports, during mass UAV attacks. This indicates a return to normal for civil aviation after recent disruptions due to Ukrainian drone activity.
Russian Fundraising for Naval Infantry Drone Equipment: Два майора is promoting a fundraising effort for the 61st Separate Guards Naval Infantry Brigade's UAV operators on the Kherson direction. They state the operators are effectively counteracting enemy drones and require help in purchasing UAV equipment. They have a goal of 3,200,000 rubles and have collected just over 2,000,000 so far, with a remaining need of nearly 1,150,000 rubles. This indicates continued reliance on public donations for specific military equipment needs, particularly those related to drone warfare, and highlights the ongoing nature of drone activity on the Kherson direction.
Ukrainian Drone Successes in Donetsk Oblast: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video from the 414th UAV Brigade "Birds of Madyar" claiming to have destroyed an MT-LB and a tank in Donetsk Oblast. The video notes that both armored vehicles were equipped with anti-drone structures, requiring the use of several drones for each target. This provides visual evidence of successful Ukrainian tactical drone operations targeting armored vehicles, and highlights the Russian adaptation of anti-drone protection and the Ukrainian response.
Comparison of Russian Tanks and Commentary on Modernization: Воин DV shares a comparison between the T-34 (1943) and the T-72B3M (2022), highlighting the technical evolution of tanks over 80 years. The text emphasizes the T-34's mass production and symbolic importance and notes that modern tanks are technically superior but need to prove their effectiveness in combat and be mass-produced to achieve historical significance like the T-34. This reflects a focus within the Russian military community on the importance of both technological advancement and mass production of military hardware.
Russian-Kazakhstan Military Diplomacy: Colonelcassad shares a video of Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov meeting with Kazakhstan's Defense Minister Ruslan Zhaksylykov in Moscow. Belousov emphasized multifaceted cooperation and the historical role of Kazakhstan in World War II, while Zhaksylykov highlighted the friendly relationship and participation of Kazakh units in the Victory Parade. They discussed bilateral military cooperation. This indicates ongoing military diplomatic engagement between Russia and Kazakhstan, particularly in the context of Victory Day commemorations.
US Stance on Peace Negotiations and Territorial Concessions: Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна share statements attributed to US Vice President J.D. Vance. Vance reportedly states that Russia cannot expect to be given territory it has not yet conquered, which was part of their initial peace plan. He also says that the US position is that they do not want Ukraine to collapse and want it to remain a sovereign country. Vance reportedly believes that Russia is asking for too much because they are "winning on the front" and that Ukrainians want a ceasefire because things are "not going very well" for them. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports Vance stating that the US will withdraw from the negotiation process if Russia does not negotiate in good faith. This highlights the US position on potential peace negotiations, linking it to territorial integrity and perceived military realities on the ground. It also suggests a potential condition for continued US involvement in diplomatic efforts.
Russian Military Unit's Victory Day Message: Два майора shares a video prepared by soldiers of the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division for Victory Day. This is an example of Russian military units engaging in information activities around the holiday, likely aimed at boosting morale and promoting a patriotic narrative.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Kursk Oblast (Russia) (Tetkino, Novy Put, Budki, Sumy Oblast, Ukraine): Continued contested fighting with claimed Ukrainian attempts and reported Russian counteractions. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims a "powerful strike" by Russian forces on a group of approximately 40 Ukrainian forces near Tetkino. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА claims Ukrainian attempts to attack Russian positions on the Novy Put and Tetkino sectors were repelled with claimed destruction of a wide range of Ukrainian equipment. Previously reported Ukrainian drone attacks causing civilian casualties in Glushkovsky and Sudzhansky districts and evacuation of Glushkovo village. Previously reported Russian General Staff claims of repelling 11 enemy attacks with significant shelling and aviation activity. Russian military blogger analysis suggests Ukrainian attempts aim to stretch Russian forces and gain a political/media victory. Fundraising for drone equipment for units on the Kursk border continues.
Pokrovsk Direction (Krasnoarmeysk, Pershe-Travnya/Leontovychi): Сливочный каприз reports continued positional combat and claims Russian forces advanced over 1 km in Pershe-Travnya (Leontovychi) towards Krasnoarmeysk, occupying new positions. Previously reported intensive Russian pressure on this axis, with 77 attacks reported by the Ukrainian General Staff yesterday.
Donetsk Oblast (Donetsk, Orikhiv Direction, Bogatyr, Otradnoye, Komar, Veseloye, Fyodorovka, Novopavlivka, Lyman, Kramatorsk, Toretsk): Colonelcassad shares photos claiming to show deceased Ukrainian soldiers on this section of the front. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video from the 414th UAV Brigade "Birds of Madyar" claiming the destruction of an MT-LB and a tank here using drones. Военкор Котенок claims Russian forces continued to storm Bogatyr until the ceasefire, significantly advancing and consolidating in the eastern and southern parts, and also claimed advances southwest of Otradnoye towards Komar. Previously reported high intensity of combat on the Pokrovsk (77 attacks), Lyman (21 attacks), and Novopavlivka (23 attacks) axes yesterday. Previously reported Russian claims of advancements and liberation of settlements (Lysovka, Uspenovka, Kotlyarovka, Troitskoye) on the Pokrovsk direction. Previously reported fierce battles on the Donetsk front, including near Bogatyr and Otradne. Previously reported Russian reports of civilian casualties due to explosive devices and Ukrainian drone drops in Donetsk People's Republic. Previously reported unconventionally used Russian tactic of divers for infiltration on the Donetsk direction, detected and destroyed by Ukrainian forces. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZA is fundraising for drone equipment for soldiers on the Donetsk direction.
Kherson Direction: Два майора is fundraising for UAV operators of the 61st Separate Guards Naval Infantry Brigade operating on this direction, highlighting their role in countering enemy drones. This indicates ongoing drone activity in this area.
Sumy Oblast (Ukraine) (Sumy community, Konotop): Previously reported tragic civilian casualties (3 killed, 7 injured, including children) from a ballistic missile strike on a village in the Sumy community, with Days of Mourning declared. Previously reported ballistic missile strike on an infrastructure object in Konotop reportedly originating from Kursk. Previously reported Russian "fiber-optic" drones reportedly operating in border areas targeting Ukrainian positions.
Moscow (Russia): Temporary mobile internet restrictions are in place and expected to continue in the lead-up to Victory Day, attributed to security concerns related to Ukrainian drones. Foreign leaders are attending a ceremonial dinner in the Kremlin. ASTRA reports Russian civil aviation has restored its schedule after disruptions caused by drone attacks, including those in the Moscow region. Previously reported temporary restrictions on air travel at airports near Moscow and potential disruptions to taxi services and banking services due to internet issues. Previously reported detention of a journalist possibly related to security measures around Victory Day. Previously reported temporary airport closures due to drone attacks on May 6th-7th.
Russia (General): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 states that internet and communication are disrupted across the entire country due to counter-drone measures. Russian civil aviation has restored its schedule after disruptions caused by drone attacks. Russian-Kazakhstan military diplomacy meeting in Moscow. Previously reported widespread internet outages in 31 regions attributed to security measures against Ukrainian drones. Previously reported temporary restrictions on air travel at airports in Kaluga, Tambov, Yaroslavl, and Nizhnekamsk due to attacks. Previously reported internal security incidents and reported actions by a Dagestani security officer. Previously reported legal case where families of deceased servicemen sued the Ministry of Defense for back wages and reported return of captured soldiers to combat with convictions for refusal to fight. Previously reported efforts to counter perceived Ukrainian information operations about troop morale and alleged intelligence manipulation of POWs. Previously reported efforts to highlight the role of volunteer units and showcase claimed successes. Previously reported introduction of a new qualification badge for assault troops. Previously reported warning about Victory Day scams.
Lipetsk Oblast (Russia): Previously reported "Threat of UAV Attack" alert.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video from the 414th UAV Brigade "Birds of Madyar" claiming the destruction of an MT-LB and a tank in Donetsk Oblast using drones, noting the need for multiple drones against armored vehicles with anti-drone protection. Два майора is fundraising for UAV operators on the Kherson direction, highlighting their role in countering enemy drones. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА is fundraising for drone equipment for soldiers on the Donetsk direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 states that internet and communication are disrupted across the entire country due to counter-drone measures against UAVs. Russian civil aviation was disrupted by drone attacks on May 6th-7th, particularly around Moscow airports, but has since restored its schedule. Previously reported intensified and large-scale Russian drone attack on Kyiv (28 UAVs), with 11 shot down in Kyiv/surroundings. Previously reported massive Russian UAV attack on Zaporizhzhia (May 6th) resulting in casualties and damage. Previously reported Russian drone movement across central and western Ukrainian oblasts. Previously reported Ukrainian drone attacks confirmed targeting industrial facilities in Saransk and reportedly the "Splav" plant in Tula Oblast, and possibly the Kubinka military airfield in Moscow Oblast and Shaikovka airfield in Kaluga Oblast. Previously reported Ukrainian drone attacks causing civilian casualties in Kursk Oblast and Bryansk Oblast. Previously reported Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian UAV production facilities and control posts. Previously reported Russian "fiber-optic" drones reportedly operating in Chernihiv Oblast border areas. Previously reported Russian authorities claiming three Ukrainian UAVs were shot down near Yaroslavl, and over 140 aerial targets (including drones) over Bryansk. Previously reported Russian military bloggers claiming successful FPV drone and Lancet strikes destroyed a Ukrainian tank near Novy Put' in Kursk Oblast. Previously reported Russian forces used 3267 kamikaze drones and 145 operational-tactical UAVs were destroyed in the past day (May 6th) according to Ukrainian General Staff. Previously reported Russian Ministry of Defense claims 105 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over 11 Russian regions overnight (May 5th/6th), and over 140 aerial targets (including drones) over Bryansk from May 6th evening through the night. Previously reported Russian military blogger shares video purportedly depicting a drone engagement resulting in casualties. Previously reported Russian military expert claims Ukrainian elite drone regiment deployed to Bilohorivka in Luhansk. Previously reported temporary restrictions on air travel introduced at airports in Moscow, Kaluga, Tambov, Yaroslavl, and Nizhnekamsk due to attacks, causing disruptions to civilian air travel. Previously reported Ukrainian fundraising for FPV drones is ongoing. Previously reported Russian reports note that regions are adopting the practice of disabling mobile internet to disorient some enemy drones. Previously reported Kadyrov_95 claims successful FPV drone strikes by the Sheikh Mansur battalion near Stroivka (Kharkiv/Sumy border). Previously reported Colonelcassad shares a video showcasing an FPV drone operator and claiming destruction of Western equipment. Previously reported Ukrainian forces commemorating the 421st Separate Unmanned Systems Battalion. Previously reported Russian reports of intense fighting in Kashmir on the India-Pakistan border involving drones. Previously reported Ukrainian forces discussing using drones to down Shahed drones and seeking international financing for interceptor drone production. Fundraising for thermal imaging ponchos for Russian paratroopers to evade enemy drones continues.
Ballistic Missile Activity: Previously reported one Russian ballistic target was successfully intercepted over Kyiv with debris impact in Solomianskyi district (1 injured). Previously reported tragic ballistic missile strike on a village in the Sumy community (3 killed, 7 injured). Previously reported threat of ballistic missile application from the northeastern direction declared, with Kyiv Oblast and other oblasts under alert. Previously reported two ballistic missiles were reportedly used in the combined attack on Konotop. Previously reported Russian threat of "Oreshnik" missile strike on Kyiv if Ukraine stages provocations on May 9th. Previously reported air raid alarm for missile danger in Lipetsk Oblast (Russia). Previously reported ballistic missile threat to Dnipro and Pavlohrad. Previously reported strike on Konotop infrastructure reportedly from Kursk, current activity from Taganrog.
Cruise Missile Activity: Previously reported Russian Governor of Bryansk claims one cruise missile was among the over 140 aerial targets destroyed from yesterday evening through the night.
Aviation Activity: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims Russian aerospace forces conducted a "powerful strike" on a Ukrainian group near Tetkino. Russian civil aviation has restored its schedule after disruptions caused by drone attacks. Turkish Airlines is expected to fully resume flights to Russia from May 9th. Previously reported Russian forces conducted 96 air strikes and 12 aviation strikes on the Kursk direction in the past day (May 6th) according to Ukrainian General Staff. Previously reported Russian forces dropped 187 guided aerial bombs on Ukraine and 27 on Kursk Oblast in the past day (May 6th) according to Ukrainian General Staff. Previously reported Russian forces conducted air strikes on numerous settlements in Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts in the past day (May 6th) according to Ukrainian General Staff. Previously reported Ukrainian drone attack reportedly targeted the Kubinka military airfield in Moscow Oblast and Shaikovka airfield in Kaluga Oblast, where fighters and bombers are based. Previously reported Oleh Synyehubov reports Russian forces used 7 KABs in Kharkiv Oblast in the past day. Previously reported Воин DV claims "Vostok" grouping army aviation strikes near Novopol. Previously reported Russian aviation conducted airstrikes yesterday in numerous settlements across Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kherson regions. Previously reported WarGonzo claims Russian forces are using aviation bombs against Ukrainian forces near Tetkino. Previously reported India admitted losing 3 aircraft (2 Rafale, 1 Mirage) in conflict with Pakistan.
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Сливочный каприз shares a geotagged video showing a Russian forward position in Troitske under Ukrainian drone fire, implying artillery or mortar support to the drone operation. Previously reported Russian forces conducted over 6400 shellings, including 109 from MLRS, in the past day (May 6th) according to Ukrainian General Staff. Previously reported Russian forces conducted 336 artillery shellings, including 14 from MLRS, on the Kursk direction in the past day (May 6th) according to Ukrainian General Staff. Previously reported Russian shelling in Zaporizhzhia resulted in 4 injuries. Previously reported Ukrainian drone attack reportedly targeted the "Splav" plant in Tula Oblast, which manufactures MLRS systems and ammunition. Previously reported Ukrainian General Staff reports 71 artillery systems and 1 MLRS destroyed in the past day (May 6th). Previously reported Oleh Synyehubov reports Russian forces used artillery in Kharkiv Oblast. Previously reported Russian military bloggers claim Ukrainian forces were stopped by heavy artillery fire near Tetkino/Novy Put'. Previously reported Russian reports of intense fighting in Kashmir on the India-Pakistan border involving artillery. Previously reported Russian forward position near Novopil (Donetsk) under Ukrainian shelling.
Naval Activity: Previously reported Ukrainian forces detected and destroyed a group of three Russian divers attempting to infiltrate on the Donetsk direction. Previously reported Turkish naval exercises "Denizkurdu-II-2025" are underway in the Black Sea, Marmara, Aegean, and Mediterranean Seas. Previously reported Rapid Support Forces (Sudan) reportedly using kamikaze drones against Port Sudan.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Ukrainian Diplomatic Initiatives: President Zelenskyy proposes a 30-day ceasefire starting immediately, conditioned on Russia's agreement and a complete and unconditional cessation of fire, and states Ukraine's readiness for negotiations in any format. Previously reported discussions on preparing new diplomatic steps, including aid packages and increased pressure on Russia. Previously reported Ukrainian engagement with Vatican.
US Stance: President Trump reportedly confirmed his desire to see the war end, willingness to help, and support for the need for a ceasefire during a conversation with President Zelenskyy. US Vice President J.D. Vance states Russia cannot expect to be given unconquered territory and that the US wants Ukraine to remain sovereign. Vance also reportedly says the US will withdraw from negotiations if Russia does not negotiate in good faith. This highlights the US position on potential peace negotiations, linking it to territorial integrity and perceived military realities on the ground. It also suggests a potential condition for continued US involvement in diplomatic efforts. Previously reported President Biden's statement asserting Putin considers Ukraine part of Russia.
Germany's Position on Russian Narrative: German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier explicitly rejects the Kremlin's historical lies and their framing of the war against Ukraine.
Victory Day Diplomacy in Moscow: Foreign leaders from about three dozen countries are attending a ceremonial dinner in the Kremlin on May 8th in the lead-up to the Victory Day parade. ТАСС reports the reception has concluded with Putin personally saying goodbye to guests. This highlights Russia's efforts to maintain diplomatic engagement and the willingness of certain countries to participate in the Victory Day events. Previously reported non-permission for Serbian and Slovak leaders to fly over Lithuanian and Polish airspace for the parade. Previously reported Brazilian President traveling to Russia for Victory Day. Previously reported President of the Republic of the Congo visiting Russia for Victory Day. Previously reported SVR framing European participation in Kyiv's May 9th commemoration as revanchist. Previously reported Russian Governor of Bryansk claims "Kyiv regime" attempted massive strike during Russia's unilaterally declared ceasefire. Previously reported Maria Zakharova states guests from abroad will experience the special atmosphere of Victory Day. Previously reported military parade for Victory Day held in Astana, Kazakhstan, with emphasis on preventing distortion of historical truth. Previously reported Russian warning of "Oreshnik" missile strike on Kyiv if Ukraine stages provocations on May 9th.
Russian Diplomatic Stance: Peskov claims Kyiv is "disposed towards war" and Russia will respond to Ukrainian strikes during any truce. Russia is not planning to change mediators in negotiations (working with the US). Previously reported statement that Russia is no longer interested in the G8 format. Previously reported Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs discussed rising tensions with Pakistan's Foreign Ministry head.
International Sanctions: Previously reported new EU sanctions are planned against over 20 companies, including in third countries, for allegedly helping Russia evade sanctions.
Russian-Kazakhstan Relations: Meeting between Russian and Kazakhstan Defense Ministers in Moscow to discuss bilateral cooperation and participation in the Victory Day parade. This indicates ongoing military diplomatic ties.
Romanian Politics: Previously reported statements from the winner of the first round of the presidential election expressing opposition to providing weapons to Ukraine and advocating for neutrality and alignment with Trump's policy.
China-Russia Relations: Previously reported Chinese President Xi Jinping's statement asserting that the historical trend of China achieving reunification is unstoppable and noting strong mutual support with Russia on core interests, including Russia's support for the One China principle, ahead of his visit to Moscow.
India-Pakistan Relations: Previously reported significant escalation on the border with reported civilian casualties, damage to mosques and a power station, India claiming "Sindur" operation destroyed 70 terrorists, India admitting losing 3 aircraft, Pakistan stating readiness to cease hostilities if India stops escalation, intense fighting all night in Kashmir on the border using artillery, drones, mortars, and ATGMs, Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs justifying their actions as preventing terrorist attacks, planned Indian civil defense exercises near borders, damaged mosque in Muzaffarabad reported, and Indian PM Modi canceled planned European visits.
Middle East Diplomacy/Conflict: Previously reported escalation of the conflict between Israel and Houthi forces in Yemen with Israeli airstrikes.

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security: Temporary mobile internet restrictions are in place and expected to continue in the lead-up to Victory Day, attributed to security concerns related to Ukrainian drones. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 states that internet and communication are disrupted across the entire country due to counter-drone measures. Previously reported incident in Vsevolozhsk involving the "Russian Community" and detention in Crimea for calls to destroy the Crimean bridge. Previously reported shooting attack on traffic police in Makhachkala, Dagestan, resulting in casualties and reported action by a Dagestani security officer. Previously reported alleged attempted arson of a cathedral in Barnaul by a foreign citizen, investigated as terrorism.
Impact of Ukrainian Attacks: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 states that internet and communication are disrupted across the entire country due to counter-drone measures. Previously reported Ukrainian drone attacks on industrial facilities in Saransk and reportedly in Tula Oblast and military airfields in Moscow Oblast (Kubinka) and Kaluga Oblast (Shaikovka). Previously reported Ukrainian drone attacks causing civilian casualties in Kursk Oblast and Bryansk Oblast. Previously reported Russian authorities claim three Ukrainian UAVs were shot down near Yaroslavl, and over 140 aerial targets (including drones) over Bryansk. Previously reported disruptions to civilian air travel due to airport restrictions in multiple regions. Previously reported Sberbank warns of potential mobile internet disruptions in Moscow and Moscow Oblast. Previously reported Russian military bloggers note that regions are adopting the practice of disabling mobile internet to disorient some enemy drones. Previously reported air raid alarm for missile danger in Lipetsk Oblast. Previously reported potential disruptions to taxi services in the center of Moscow due to communication issues.
Infrastructure Issues: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 states that internet and communication are disrupted across the entire country. Previously reported fire at the "Neryungrinskaya" enrichment plant in Yakutia with 4 injured. Previously reported gas explosion in a residential building in Bulnash, Sverdlovsk Oblast, with 1 injured. Previously reported Sberbank warns of potential mobile internet disruptions in Moscow and Moscow Oblast. Previously reported disruptions to civilian air travel due to airport restrictions. Previously reported potential disruptions to taxi services in the center of Moscow due to communication issues.
Military Fundraising: Два майора is fundraising for UAV operators of the 61st Separate Guards Naval Infantry Brigade on the Kherson direction. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА is fundraising for drone equipment for soldiers on the Donetsk direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is fundraising for thermal imaging ponchos. Previously reported Colonelcassad is fundraising for drones for a special forces unit.
Political/Social Events: ТАСС reports the ceremonial reception in the Kremlin for foreign leaders has concluded. Previously reported detention of Telegram channel editor Pavel Gnilorybov for disobedience to police. Previously reported report on a student festival in Chechnya. Previously reported Russian State Duma to consider complaints about unilateral changes by banks. Previously reported Russian facial recognition project ("Reflection of a Hero") launched. Previously reported online scams targeting sellers on online platforms. Previously reported warning about Victory Day scams related to fraudulent payouts. Previously reported minor domestic legal matter in Luhansk. Previously reported introduction of a new chest qualification badge for assault troops. Previously reported military parade in Astana, Kazakhstan. Previously reported discussion on religious attire for women and children in Tatarstan.
Military Welfare and Support: Previously reported legal case where families of deceased servicemen sued the Ministry of Defense for back wages and reported return of captured soldiers to combat with convictions for refusal to fight. Previously reported highlighting the role of volunteer units. Previously reported human-interest story from the Russian perspective highlighting the dangers faced by their soldiers (snipers injured by a mine).
Military Development and Analysis: Воин DV shares a comparison of Russian tanks (T-34 and T-72B3M), highlighting technical evolution and the importance of mass production and combat effectiveness. This reflects internal discussions on military capabilities and modernization. Previously reported introduction of a new qualification badge for assault troops.
Government Messaging: Peskov is articulating the official Russian narrative on the conflict and diplomatic efforts. Previously reported Russian state-sponsored historical messaging related to Victory Day and official explanations for internet restrictions. Previously reported Russian MoD is showcasing the awarding of volunteer servicemen. Previously reported Russian media is highlighting international attendance at the Victory Day parade and using it for propaganda.
Military Diplomacy: Meeting between Russian and Kazakhstan Defense Ministers in Moscow.

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Humanitarian Situation: Previously reported tragic civilian casualties (3 killed, 7 injured, including children) from a ballistic missile strike on a village in the Sumy community, with Days of Mourning declared. Previously reported 4 injuries and damage to residential buildings and critical infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia due to Russian shelling. Previously reported overnight, Russian "Geran" drones worked on Zaporizhzhia. Previously reported fire at Barabashovo market in Kharkiv after a Russian drone attack. Previously reported civilian casualties in Kursk Oblast due to Ukrainian FPV drone attacks. Previously reported reported injury in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast due to a morning strike. Previously reported gas explosion in Sverdlovsk Oblast with 1 injured. Previously reported civilian casualties (24 Pakistani, 46 injured) and damage to mosques and a power station in the escalating India-Pakistan conflict. Previously reported Ukrainian drone attacks reported causing civilian casualties in Kursk Oblast (Glushkovsky and Sudzhansky districts) and Bryansk Oblast (Starye Yurkovichi and Sluchevsk). Previously reported civilian casualties in Kharkiv Oblast (Kupyansk - 2 injured, Starovirivka - 16-year-old injured, Izium - 2 fatalities, 1 injured from explosive device). Previously reported damage to civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast. Previously reported Russian reports claim civilian casualties in Donetsk People's Republic (Donetsk-Yasynuvata, Horlivka, Kurakhove). Previously reported daily 9:00 AM minute of silence in Zaporizhzhia to honor those killed. Previously reported details on the injuries sustained by four civilians in Zaporizhzhia (fractures, burns, abrasions). Previously reported human-interest story from the Russian perspective highlighting the dangers faced by their soldiers (snipers injured by a mine).
Prisoner Exchanges: Previously reported video related to prisoner exchanges shows relatives of missing soldiers seeking information. Previously reported video of a released POW singing. Previously reported Russian forces claim capturing Ukrainian tank crew POWs near Tetkino.
Military Commemoration: Два майора shares a video prepared by soldiers of the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division for Victory Day. Previously reported Ukrainian General Staff and Оперативний ЗСУ commemorate a daily national moment of silence for those killed in the war. Previously reported Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України commemorate the anniversary of a UAV battalion. Previously reported КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) and Platform of Memory Memorial honor a fallen soldier. Previously reported Ukrainian Air Force commemorates Infantry Day. Previously reported military parade for Victory Day held in Astana, Kazakhstan. Previously reported Victory Day celebrations in Moscow involve foreign leaders and historical messaging. Previously reported information operations surrounding Victory Day, alleged Ukrainian strike on a monument, and promotion of a film about WWII.
Medical Preparedness: Previously reported demonstration of providing first aid for massive groin bleeding using improvised methods. Previously reported improvements to medical rehabilitation facilities for military personnel in Kryvyi Rih. Previously reported public fundraising efforts for Ukrainian military doctors.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Russia: Continuing large-scale drone attacks, utilizing ballistic missiles and reportedly cruise missiles against urban centers. Maintaining intense ground pressure on multiple axes, particularly Pokrovsk, Lyman, and Novopavlivka, with military bloggers claiming advances and liberation of settlements (Velyka Novosilka area, Bogatyr, Otradnoye, Komar). Conducting offensive actions in Kursk Oblast with claimed success in repelling Ukrainian attempts, including armored assaults and capture of POWs (conflicting reports on territorial control), and claiming destruction of a wide range of Ukrainian equipment including tanks, APCs, and light vehicles. Employing aviation, guided aerial bombs (KABs), MLRS, and artillery extensively. Claiming destruction of Ukrainian equipment with drones (FPV and Lancet) and other means. Experiencing significant estimated daily losses in personnel, artillery, and drones (previous). Leveraging military bloggers for reporting, fundraising, and information operations. Utilizing historical narratives for information operations, including a claimed unilateral ceasefire contradicted by actions. Adapting counter-UAV tactics by advising disabling mobile internet in regions (previous). Actively showcasing claimed successes, including destruction of Western equipment with FPV drones (previous). Utilizing army aviation for strikes. Employing unconventional tactics such as using divers for infiltration (detected and destroyed by Ukraine). Introducing a new qualification badge for assault troops to recognize and incentivize participation in offensive operations. Threatening "Oreshnik" missile strike on Kyiv if Ukraine stages provocations on May 9th. Highlighting the role of volunteer units and showcasing the awarding of servicemen. Discussing military capabilities and modernization (tank comparison). Engaging in military diplomacy (Kazakhstan).
Ukraine: Proposing a 30-day ceasefire starting immediately, conditioned on Russia's agreement and a complete and unconditional cessation of fire, and expressing readiness for negotiations in any format. Conducting renewed ground offensive actions in Kursk Oblast, reportedly involving armor and armored vehicles, and attempting to take Tetkino at any cost according to Russian sources (conflicting reports on territorial control). Utilizing drones for deep strikes into Russian territory targeting industrial and military facilities, including military airfields (Kubinka and Shaikovka), and confirming destruction of armored vehicles with anti-drone protection in Donetsk Oblast using multiple drones. Repelling numerous Russian ground assaults on key axes. Maintaining defenses against Russian aerial and missile attacks, with successful interceptions reported, including a ballistic missile over Kyiv and reportedly over 140 aerial targets in Bryansk Oblast (previous). Reporting on estimated daily Russian losses (previous). Potentially deploying elite drone units to contested areas according to Russian claims (previous). Utilizing drones for counter-infiltration and in combat engagements (FPV drones), including destroying Russian divers. Continuing fundraising efforts for FPV drones and other equipment (thermal ponchos). Actively commemorating fallen soldiers and military units. Demonstrating tactical medical preparedness (previous). Highlighting Russian casualties inflicted by Ukrainian units. Reporting on Russian activity and casualties in specific oblasts (Kharkiv). Improving medical rehabilitation facilities for military personnel.
India: Conducting military operations on the border with Pakistan, including reported rocket strikes ("Sindur" operation) and aviation losses. Justifying actions as preventing terrorist attacks. Planning civil defense exercises near borders (previous). Canceling planned European visits for the Prime Minister.
Pakistan: Engaged in conflict with India on the border, reporting civilian casualties from Indian attacks, damage to infrastructure, and aviation losses. Stating readiness to cease hostilities if India stops escalation.
Turkey: Conducting large-scale naval exercises involving a significant portion of its fleet, including submarines, various aircraft, and demonstrating joint operations capabilities. Utilizing advanced anti-ship and surface-to-air missiles in live fire exercises.
Rapid Support Forces (Sudan): Reportedly using kamikaze drones against Port Sudan (previous).
M23 Movement (DRC): Reportedly continuing attacks despite agreements (previous).

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

Ukraine's proposal for a 30-day ceasefire and readiness for negotiations signals a strategic effort to pursue a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, potentially seeking a pause in hostilities to facilitate talks or regroup. The stated conditions for Russia's agreement and the engagement with former President Trump highlight the importance of international support and a demonstration of serious intent from Russia for any diplomatic process to move forward.
The continued intensity of fighting in the Kursk border region, despite conflicting reports on territorial control and claimed Ukrainian losses, indicates a persistent Ukrainian strategic objective to create pressure on Russia's border regions, potentially to divert resources or gain a political advantage. Russian claims of repelling these attacks and inflicting significant equipment losses are aimed at deterring further attempts and projecting an image of successful defense.
Russian claims of continued tactical gains on the Pokrovsk and Orikhiv directions suggest that Russia remains focused on achieving territorial objectives in eastern and southern Ukraine, even during a unilaterally declared ceasefire. The high intensity of combat reported on these axes underscores their strategic importance for both sides.
The widespread internet outages in Russia, attributed to counter-drone measures, highlight the increasing impact of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian civilian infrastructure and the measures being taken to counter them. This indicates a potential vulnerability and a strategic focus by Ukraine on imposing costs on Russia beyond the immediate front lines.
The symbolic significance of Victory Day continues to be leveraged by Russia for diplomatic engagement and information operations, as seen in the ceremonial dinner for foreign leaders in the Kremlin and the highlighting of wines from Crimea and Krasnodar Krai. This underscores the importance of historical narratives and national symbolism in the conflict.
Germany's strong rejection of the Russian narrative linking the conflict to the fight against fascism in World War II highlights the ongoing international contestation of the justifications for the conflict and the efforts to counter Russian propaganda.
The continued reliance on public fundraising for specific military equipment needs, such as drones and thermal imaging gear, on both sides underscores the logistical challenges and the importance of public support in sustaining military operations in modern warfare.
The reported destruction of Ukrainian armored vehicles equipped with anti-drone protection highlights the evolving nature of drone warfare and the ongoing adaptation of tactics and countermeasures by both sides. The need for multiple drones to overcome these defenses indicates an increased cost and complexity in targeting armored vehicles.
The comparison of Russian tanks reflects internal discussions within Russia on military modernization and the importance of both technological advancement and mass production in achieving battlefield effectiveness and historical significance.
The meeting between Russian and Kazakhstan Defense Ministers highlights ongoing military diplomatic ties and cooperation, particularly in the context of Victory Day commemorations, which are being used by Russia to showcase its relationships.
The US position on potential peace negotiations, as articulated by Vice President Vance, reinforces the link between territorial integrity and the viability of talks, suggesting that Russia's demands for already unoccupied territory are unacceptable. The potential for the US to withdraw from negotiations if Russia is not acting in good faith adds a layer of pressure on Russia in any potential diplomatic process.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report