Sitrep 2025-05-08 12:35:06

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 8, 2025, 12:34 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment remains characterized by intense ground combat, persistent aerial and drone activity, and Ukrainian deep strikes. The focus continues on eastern and southern Ukraine, with notable activity in border regions as well. Information operations surrounding the approaching May 9th Victory Day remain prevalent, now including new information about Kazakhstan banning "Immortal Regiment" and Russian symbols/songs related to Victory Day, renaming the event in Almaty, and potential procurement of Turkish military vehicles.

Recent reports detail ongoing Russian offensive efforts across multiple axes, including claimed advances by Russian forces and fierce Ukrainian defensive actions, updated casualty figures, continued Russian aerial and drone strikes (including new reports of KAB launches on Sumy Oblast), Ukrainian deep strikes targeting Russian military production facilities and logistical hubs, and international diplomatic activity related to the conflict and other regional tensions (specifically the escalation between India and Pakistan).

New information highlights continued civilian casualties and damage from Russian strikes, claims of Russian territorial gains (specifically Troitske in DNR), Ukrainian reports of repelling numerous assaults, ongoing Russian drone and air activity with specific weapon types mentioned, updated estimates of Russian losses, continued Ukrainian deep strikes, the significant impact of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian infrastructure and internal security concerns in Russia (including a reported fire at the KamAZ plant), information operations surrounding Victory Day and historical narratives, Russian internal security issues (including the liquidation of an Uzbek diaspora organization in Moscow), Ukrainian discussions on military service for women, increased membership in a Russian youth military-patriotic movement, successful Ukrainian infrastructure restoration efforts, and the recognition of Ukrainian military personnel with the title "Hero of Ukraine," including the Head of the SBU and fallen soldiers.

The escalation in the India-Pakistan conflict continues to be reported, including claims of a large-scale aerial engagement. Discussions about Turkey's potential role as a mediator in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are also reported, with President Erdogan reportedly receptive to the idea.

Significant updates from the latest messages include:

Russian Claim of Liberating Troitske (DNR) and Ongoing Combat: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have liberated the settlement of Troitske in the DNR before the declared ceasefire came into effect as a result of actions by the "Tsentr" group of forces. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition provides further details on the strategic importance of Troitske, its location, and potential future Russian objectives in the area, including a possible push towards the Dnieper Oblast border and cutting off Ukrainian logistics. Despite the Russian claimed ceasefire, Poddubny reports that Ukrainian forces are expectedly not observing it, with two attempts to cross the border towards Kursk's Tyotkino reported since midnight, and ongoing attacks near Dzerzhinsk. He claims that while Russian forces respond, they are not initiating fire first, adhering to the Supreme Commander's order.
Continued Ukrainian Cross-Border Activity in Kursk Oblast: Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition confirms ongoing activity in the Kursk border region despite the claimed ceasefire, reporting two Ukrainian attempts to cross the border towards Tyotkino since midnight and ongoing attacks. He also notes that Ukrainian forces are receiving countermeasures but are not initiating fire. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that VDV fighters are destroying columns of enemy equipment, repelling an offensive on Kursk's Tyotkino. They claim Ivanovo paratroopers of the 217th regiment have been engaged in heavy battles for 4 days, destroying a large amount of Ukrainian equipment, including tanks, BMPs, mine clearing vehicles, and quad bikes, in the ongoing offensive by the Kyiv regime. The included photos purportedly show destroyed Ukrainian equipment, including a tank and a BMP. This suggests continued and intense Ukrainian efforts to operate in this border area. AV БогомаZ reports Ukrainian drone attacks on Kamensky Khutor and Khromnoye in Bryansk Oblast, injuring a civilian in the former and damaging a farm building in the latter.
EU Accusation of Russian Chemical Weapon Use: While not in the latest 6 hours, the prior update indicated the EU is preparing to officially accuse Russia of using CS gas in Ukraine, citing evidence from the Dnipropetrovsk region. This is a significant development regarding potential war crimes and could lead to new sanctions.
Ukrainian Military Reorganization and High-Level Engagement: РБК-Україна reports that the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Syrskyi, held a video conference with the Chairman of the European Union Military Committee, discussing military aid (ammunition, air defense), the front line situation, military reorganization (transitioning to a corps structure for improved manageability), training cooperation, and Ukraine's desire for a 30-day ceasefire for peace talks, which Russia is reportedly blocking. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports on this meeting.
Ukrainian Recognition of Heroes: STERNENKO reports that Pavlo Petrychenko has been posthumously awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine. РБК-Україна provides a list of other individuals also awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine by President Zelenskyy, including Vasyl Malyuk, Head of the SBU, Major Robert Brovdi, Junior Lieutenant Oleksandr Haran, Senior Soldier (posthumously) Oleksandr Kandaurov, Lieutenant Andriy Kiyanenko, Colonel Ihor Parhomenko, Colonel Pavlo Rozlach, Lieutenant Colonel Serhiy Roshchyn, Sergeant (posthumously) Volodymyr Todor, and Senior Soldier (posthumously) Anatoliy Tehza. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports on these awards, including Vasyl Malyuk and Robert Brovdi ("Magyar's Birds" commander). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS further details the posthumous award to Vasyl Yaremko ("Yaryi"), commander of the 2nd assault company of the 49th Separate Assault Battalion "Carpathian Sich," who died leading an assault near Makiivka in Luhansk Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС also reports on Vasyl Yaremko's posthumous award and his service with the "Carpathian Sich." These awards highlight significant bravery, sacrifice, and potentially successful operations by these individuals and their units.
Ongoing Russian-Chinese Strategic Partnership and Joint Statements: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that Russia and China have adopted a joint statement on global strategic stability following negotiations. Putin noted that relations have reached their highest level. They plan a significant increase in bilateral trade by 2030, with almost all trade now conducted in national currencies, protecting it from external influence. They also highlighted the importance of preserving the memory of the victory over fascism as a shared value. ТАСС confirms Putin's statements on trade in national currencies and shared responsibility for preserving the historical memory of WWII. ТАСС also reports that Putin and Xi Jinping are convinced that sustainable settlement of the Ukrainian crisis requires addressing its root causes and that they support all efforts contributing to peace in Ukraine. They also call on nuclear states to abandon Cold War-style actions and resolve issues through dialogue. ТАСС reports Putin's positive view on the tradition of celebrating Chinese New Year in Russia.
Information Operations and Contested Narratives Around Victory Day: Alex Parker Returns reports on the ban of "Immortal Regiment" marches and Russian songs/symbols related to Victory Day in Kazakhstan, with officials threatening fines and arrests for unauthorized gatherings, offering online alternatives, and renaming the event in Almaty to "Worship of Kazakh Heroes." This highlights strained relations and the contested nature of historical narratives. Alex Parker Returns also shares a video previewing the upcoming Victory Day parade in Moscow, framing it as "special." Mash на Донбассе shares a video of car and motorcycle rallies in Donetsk in honor of Victory Day, with participants joining along the route to Saur-Mogila and from Mariupol, distributing flags and St. George ribbons. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares a message framing war as a tragedy, not a holiday, promoting the right to alternative service for those who find violence unacceptable, and criticizing the glorification of military feats. ТАСС reports that Ushakov stated that Kyiv's plans to intimidate foreign leaders before their visit to Moscow for May 9th were thwarted. ТАСС also shares a video of Mikhail Turetsky participating in a "Letters of Victory" action.
Turkish Potential Mediation: РБК-Україна reports, citing Hürriyet, that Turkish President Erdogan has reacted positively to US President Trump's idea of Turkey mediating peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, confirming Ankara's readiness to facilitate negotiations.
Russian Claim of Hitting Ukrainian 63rd Mechanized Brigade Objects: Colonelcassad reports a targeted strike by Russian "Geran-2" drones on objects of the Ukrainian 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade in the village of Torskoye, DNR, on May 7th around 04:00. He claims three drones hit buildings used for personnel, equipment storage, and an ammunition depot. He provides detailed claims of destroyed equipment, including various trucks and SUVs used for transport and command, and destroyed artillery shells (122mm and mortar mines). He claims several Ukrainian servicemen were killed in the strikes, which significantly damaged the brigade's logistics and combat infrastructure. Photos purportedly show the damaged buildings and vehicles.
Reports of Damage at Russian Strategic Aviation Airfield: Оперативний ЗСУ reports on the consequences of repeated Ukrainian UAV strikes on the Shaikovka strategic aviation airfield. Citing "Cyberboroshno," they claim a technical room for servicing and preparing Kh-22 missiles was destroyed, a fuel station was hit leading to a fire, and fuel tanks (including those underground and protected by anti-drone nets) were damaged and burning. Photos purportedly show satellite imagery of the airfield with highlighted areas of damage and burning.
Ukrainian Parliamentary Activity: Alex Parker Returns reports that the Verkhovna Rada has ratified the "minerals agreement" with the US with 338 votes in favor, calling it a "significant victory." БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС also reports on the ratification of the agreement.
Internal Russian Issues: ASTRA reports on expired marmalade being given as Victory Day gifts to pensioners in Saratov Oblast, with local residents expressing disappointment. Alex Parker Returns reports that the Moscow City Court has liquidated the Uzbek ethnic organization "Uzbek National-Cultural Autonomy" based on a lawsuit from the Ministry of Justice for violating the law, stating it happened after its head shared "wet fantasies about Uzbek expansion in Russia." ТАСС reports that contacts between the Russian Federation and the US on Ukraine and other issues occur every day or two, according to Ushakov. ТАСС also reports Ushakov stating that Russia's further steps on Ukraine will depend, in part, on how the ceasefire proceeds.
Ukrainian Military Blogger Reporting: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares commentary and video seemingly mocking Russian soldiers complaining about lack of water while referencing parade participants as "actors." He also shares an image of Vasyl Malyuk with text about him being awarded "Hero of Ukraine." DeepState shares a video claiming "Specialists" unit fighters are destroying enemy personnel in the village of Huevo. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares videos and photos commemorating Vasyl Yaremko, Hero of Ukraine, and his unit, the 49th Separate Assault Battalion "Carpathian Sich," including a video showing a soldier on a destroyed military vehicle and another showing a soldier identified as a volunteer.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Pokrovsk Direction: Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat, with the majority of reported engagements by the Ukrainian General Staff occurring here in the previous reporting period.
Novopavlivka Direction: Continues to see intense combat, also accounting for a significant portion of engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff in the previous reporting period.
Kursk Oblast (Russia): Active skirmishes and Ukrainian attempts to breach the border, particularly near Tyotkino and Novy Put', are ongoing despite the declared ceasefire. Russian forces, including VDV and reconnaissance units, are actively engaging these attempts, claiming the destruction of Ukrainian equipment including BMPs and quad bikes. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition confirms ongoing activity and attempts to cross the border towards Tyotkino. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports VDV fighters repelling an offensive on Tyotkino and destroying equipment.
All Front Line: Despite the claimed ceasefire, both sides report continued fighting, shelling, and drone activity across the entire contact line. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims 488 violations by Ukraine across the front in the previous reporting period. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports ongoing attacks near Dzerzhinsk and expected non-observance of the ceasefire by Ukrainian forces across the front, stating around 500 facts of ceasefire violations have been recorded since midnight.
Donetsk Oblast (Troitske, Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk, Serebryanka, Zakotnoye, Aleksandro-Shulgino, Pleshcheyevka, Aleksandro-Kalinovo, Zarya, Konstantinovka, Novoolenovka, Ulyanovka, Mirolyubovka, Mikhaylovka, Novaya Poltavka, Novoaleksandrovka, Kotlyarovka, Alekseyevka, Bogatyr, Novoukrainka, Fedorovka, Marinka, Torskoye, Makiivka): Russia claims the liberation of Troitske by the "Tsentr" group. Fighting continues in areas like Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk, where Ukrainian sources claim significant Russian casualties over 10 months. Colonelcassad reports a targeted Russian drone strike on objects of the Ukrainian 63rd Mechanized Brigade in Torskoye, claiming significant damage and casualties. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports ongoing attacks near Dzerzhinsk. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the posthumous award of Hero of Ukraine to Vasyl Yaremko who died leading an assault near Makiivka, Luhansk Oblast (listed as Donetsk Oblast in the previous report). DeepState shares a video claiming Ukrainian fighters are destroying enemy personnel in the village of Huevo.
Sumy Oblast: Reports indicate continued strong Russian shelling and active use of guided aerial bombs and assault operations. Ukrainian attempts to infiltrate Kursk Oblast from Sumy Oblast are also reported. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports launches of guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast.
Kharkiv Oblast (Kupyansk, Vovchansk, Velikiy Burluk, Redkodub, Kirovsk, Torskoye, Yampol, Palamarevka, Lyptsi): Fighting continues in these areas. DeepState reports that Ukrainian forces have liberated a forest area north of Lyptsi. AV БогомаZ reports Ukrainian drone attacks on Kamensky Khutor and Khromnoye in Bryansk Oblast, which borders Kharkiv Oblast.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Ilyinka, Novopavlivska community, Velykomykhailivska community, Nikopol, Marhanets, Kryvyi Rih, Kotlyarovka, Orekhovo): Relevant due to the investigation into alleged Russian chemical weapon use in the Maryivka and Illinka areas. Russian forces have reportedly used KABs and drones in attacks. Ukrainian sources report Russian forces continued advancing on the Dnipropetrovsk direction in the early morning before the claimed ceasefire.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Temirovka, Novodanilovka, Pavlovka, Kamenskoye, Vysokye, Novodarivka, Malynivka, Huliaipole, Orikhiv, Pridniprovskyi): Reported as relatively calm in previous updates, with some Russian evacuation of casualties. Russian forces have reportedly used air strikes in this area. Ongoing Russian assault operations in small groups on the Orikhiv direction are reported.
Kherson Oblast (Antonovka, Ponyatovka, Kozatske, Chereshenki): Russian forces have reportedly used air strikes in this area. Russian sources claim the destruction of two Ukrainian HIMARS in Chereshenki using an Iskander.
Bryansk Oblast (Kamensky Khutor, Khromnoye): The Governor reports a civilian injured by Ukrainian drone attack in Kamensky Khutor and damage to a farm building in Khromnoye due to drone attack.
Tatarstan (Russia) (Naberezhnye Chelny): Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report powerful smoke and alleged fire at the KamAZ plant.
Rostov Oblast (Russia) (Millerovo): Ukrainian Air Force reported downing strike UAVs launched from this area.
Ryazan, Belgorod, Orenburg Oblasts (Russia): Missile or drone danger announced in the previous reporting period.
Lipetsk (Russia): An explosion, possibly PVO, was reported in the previous reporting period.
Shaykovka strategic aviation airfield (Kaluga Oblast, Russia): Reported damage from repeated Ukrainian UAV strikes.
Kazakhstan (Astana, Almaty, Pavlodar, Kostanay): Relevant due to the reported ban of "Immortal Regiment" marches and Russian symbols/songs related to Victory Day in several cities, the renaming of the event in Almaty, and reported presence of Turkish military vehicles in the Astana parade.
Moscow (Russia): Potential disconnection of mobile internet and cellular service on May 9th for security reasons. Victory Day parade preparations and related information operations are ongoing. The Moscow City Court has liquidated an Uzbek ethnic organization.
Saratov Oblast (Russia) (Orlov Gay): Relevant due to reports of expired marmalade given as Victory Day gifts to pensioners.
Sevastopol (annexed Crimea): ASTRA reports the death of the head of the military medical commission of the Ministry of Internal Affairs reportedly due to an accidental self-inflicted gunshot wound during an attack in the previous reporting period.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Remains extensive on both sides. Ukrainian General Staff reported Russia used 2891 kamikaze drones and 141 operational-tactical UAVs destroyed in the previous reporting period. Russian forces continue to use FPV drones and Lancets, with claims of successful strikes. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video claiming Russian FPV drone crews destroyed enemy transports and a UAV control antenna. Ukrainian forces continue to conduct deep strikes into Russian territory using drones, as evidenced by reported damage at the Shaikovka airfield and drone attacks in Bryansk Oblast. ASTRA reports potential disconnection of mobile internet and cellular service in Moscow on May 9th for security reasons due to perceived drone threats. WarGonzo claimed a record number of drones shot down over Russia and attributed airline delays/cancellations to drone attacks in the previous reporting period. Олег Синєгубов reported enemy used 1 Lancet UAV and 24 Shahed-type UAVs on Kharkiv Oblast over the past day. Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report the powerful smoke and alleged fire at the KamAZ plant in Naberezhnye Chelny, Tatarstan, potentially due to a drone attack. Украинская Air Force confirmed the downing of 20 out of 31 strike UAVs and six drone simulators between 14:30 and 20:30 on May 7th. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video claiming "SIGNUM" battalion pilots' precise drone work on the Lyman direction. Colonelcassad shared a video showcasing Russian ZALA "Lancet" and ZALA Z-16 work in the Kursk border region, claiming over 200 units of enemy equipment hit between August 2024 and late April 2025. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition mentions Ukrainian forces using UAVs near Dzerzhinsk. Рыбарь discusses the use of Russian helicopters (Ka-52, Mi-28NM) against long-range Ukrainian kamikaze drones, highlighting the method's effectiveness but also the need for better targeting and coordination systems.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Ukrainian General Staff reported Russia launched 1157 guided bombs in the past day. Russian tactical aviation launched guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting Sumy Oblast. Russian forces used KABs in strikes on Novopavlivska community in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, injuring a woman. Russian forces also launched 19 guided bombs on the Kursk direction in the past day. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports launches of guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast.
Missile Activity: Ukrainian General Staff reported Russia launched 2 missile strikes using 2 missiles in the past day. Олег Синєгубов reported enemy used 1 Iskander missile on Kharkiv Oblast over the past day. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reported missile activity in northern Sumy Oblast heading west. North Korea launched several ballistic missiles towards the East Sea.
Aviation: Ukrainian General Staff reported Russia conducted 89 air strikes in the past day. Russian tactical aviation launched guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України warns of activity of enemy tactical aviation on the northeastern direction with threat of aviation weapons for frontline oblasts and reports launches of guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast. Reported large-scale aerial battle between Pakistan and India involving 125 aircraft. Fighterbomber reported Russian aviation on "this direction" ceased strikes slightly after midnight and will resume if Ukrainians violate the ceasefire in the previous reporting period. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of the "Russian Knights" aerobatic team preparing for the Victory Day parade in Moscow. Рыбарь discusses the use of Russian helicopters against Ukrainian drones.
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Ukrainian General Staff reported Russia conducted over 6000 shellings, including 151 from MLRS, in the past day. Russian forces conducted artillery and MLRS shellings on the Kursk direction (325 shellings, 1 MLRS) and used artillery in attacks on Nikopol and Marhanets communities. Ukrainian General Staff reports 50 artillery systems and 1 MLRS were destroyed in the past day. STERNENKO reported Russians are shelling the Kursk direction with artillery in the previous reporting period. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition mentions Ukrainian forces using barrel and rocket artillery near Dzerzhinsk.
Naval Activity: No significant changes in naval activity reported in the latest updates.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Victory Day Narratives: Russian sources are heavily promoting the historical significance of Victory Day, linking it to the current conflict and criticizing European politicians. Ukrainian sources are actively countering Russian narratives by highlighting Ukrainian contributions to WWII victory and drawing parallels between the current Russian regime and the totalitarian regimes of WWII. The ban of Russian Victory Day symbols and events in Kazakhstan highlights geopolitical tensions and the contested nature of historical narratives. Mash на Донбассе showcases pro-Russian Victory Day events in occupied territories. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники presents an alternative perspective framing war as a tragedy. ТАСС reports Ushakov stating Kyiv's plans to intimidate foreign leaders before their Moscow visit were thwarted and sharing a video of a "Letters of Victory" action.
EU-Ukraine Relations: The EU is preparing to accuse Russia of chemical weapon use. High-level military discussions continue regarding aid and training. The European Parliament adopted a resolution condemning Russia for the kidnapping of Ukrainian children.
Russian-Chinese Relations: Discussions between Putin and Xi Jinping are focused on deepening economic cooperation and strategic interaction. They signed documents on comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction, including a joint statement on global strategic stability. They are increasingly conducting trade in national currencies. They emphasize shared responsibility for preserving WWII historical memory. They support efforts for peace in Ukraine but attribute the crisis to its "root causes" and call for dialogue without Cold War tactics from nuclear states.
Ukraine's Peace Stance and Mediation: Ukrainian officials reiterate their readiness for a ceasefire to enable peace talks, emphasizing the need for a strong international stance to pressure Russia, which is reportedly blocking proposals for a 30-day ceasefire. Turkish President Erdogan is reportedly receptive to mediating peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.
Ukraine-US Relations: The Ukrainian Parliament has ratified the "minerals agreement" with the US. Contacts between the Russian Federation and the US on Ukraine and other issues are ongoing every day or two, according to Ushakov.
Turkish Foreign Policy: Turkey is reportedly open to mediating peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Colonelcassad raises concerns about the presence of Turkish military vehicles in a Kazakh military parade, linking it to Turkish arms sales and support for Ukraine.
Kazakhstan's Stance: The ban of Russian Victory Day symbols and events in Kazakhstan indicates a move to distance itself from Russian narratives and potentially assert a more independent stance.
Internal Ukrainian Politics: Bail of 18 million hryvnias was posted for former Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Smirnov in the previous reporting period. Ukraine is considering abandoning the dollar and tying its currency more closely to the euro in the previous reporting period. The Verkhovna Rada ratified the "minerals agreement" with the US. Recognition of military personnel with "Hero of Ukraine" title, including the Head of the SBU.
Internal Russian Politics: Reports include political interactions and crackdowns on dissent in previous reporting. The liquidation of an Uzbek ethnic organization in Moscow indicates a focus on controlling diaspora groups. TASS reports Ushakov's statements on contacts with the US and the dependence of future Russian steps on the ceasefire's outcome.
International Attendees at Moscow Victory Day Events: The President of Ethiopia arrived in Moscow.
Training Cooperation: Romania and the Netherlands will establish a joint center for training Ukrainian F-16 technical personnel.
Legal Developments: The SBU has reportedly sentenced the former head of the Stanychno-Luhansk military-civilian administration to ten years in absentia for treason and collaboration.

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security Concerns: Potential disconnection of mobile internet and cellular service in Moscow on May 9th for security reasons. WarGonzo claimed a record number of drones were shot down over Russia and attributed airline delays/cancellations to drone attacks in the previous reporting period. Possible fire at the KamAZ plant in Naberezhnye Chelny, Tatarstan, potentially due to a drone attack. ASTRA reports the death of a military medical commission head in Sevastopol due to an accidental self-inflicted gunshot wound during an attack in the previous reporting period. Север.Реалии reported on drone attack danger in some Russian regions in the previous reporting period.
Impact of Ukrainian Attacks: WarGonzo claims widespread airline delays and cancellations due to drone attacks in the previous reporting period. Temporary airport closure in Novokuznetsk in the previous reporting period. Possible fire at the KamAZ plant in Naberezhnye Chelny. AV БогомаZ reports Ukrainian drone attacks on Kamensky Khutor and Khromnoye in Bryansk Oblast, injuring a civilian and damaging a farm building. Reports of damage at the Shaikovka strategic aviation airfield from repeated Ukrainian UAV strikes.
Youth Engagement: Increased membership in "Yunarmia" in the previous reporting period.
Casualties: Colonelcassad reports that 134 CPRF members have died in the "SMO" in the previous reporting period. ASTRA reports the death of a military medical commission head in Sevastopol due to an accidental self-inflicted gunshot wound in the previous reporting period. Colonelcassad claims several Ukrainian servicemen were killed in the drone strike on Torskoye.
Domestic Issues: Reports of expired marmalade given as Victory Day gifts to pensioners in Saratov Oblast. The liquidation of the Uzbek ethnic organization in Moscow.
Information Operations: Significant effort is being put into promoting Victory Day narratives and controlling information about the conflict. Mash на Донбассе showcases pro-Russian Victory Day events in occupied territories. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники offers an alternative narrative.
Foreign Relations: Colonelcassad expresses concern about the presence of Turkish military vehicles in a Kazakh parade and links it to Turkey's support for Ukraine.

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Humanitarian Situation: Civilian injuries and damage to residential and commercial infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts due to Russian strikes in the previous reporting period. Potential for further casualties under rubble in Kostiantynivka in the previous reporting period. A man injured by an explosive device in Kharkiv Oblast in the previous reporting period. Damage to civilian infrastructure in Izium and Kupiansk districts of Kharkiv Oblast in the previous reporting period. STERNENKO reports a woman killed and two injured in Sumy Oblast due to Russian air strikes this morning. РБК-Україна reports on a woman rescued from under rubble in Bilopilska community, Sumy Oblast. AV БогомаZ reports a civilian injured by a Ukrainian drone attack in Kamensky Khutor, Bryansk Oblast.
Infrastructure Restoration: Power restored in Poltava Oblast after shelling in the previous reporting period. Олександр Вілкул provides a detailed update on a large-scale water supply restoration project in Kryvyi Rih after the Kakhovka HPP destruction, highlighting the complex system and ongoing work to lay new pipelines.
Military Aid to Ukraine: Germany has provided a new military aid package to Ukraine in the previous reporting period. Discussions on additional Patriot systems and F-16/F-39 pilot training in the Czech Republic are ongoing. Discussions on military aid, particularly ammunition and air defense, continue at high levels between Ukraine and EU military leadership. Romania and the Netherlands will establish a joint center for training Ukrainian F-16 technical personnel.
Military Personnel Welfare: A bill to create a military ombudsman in Ukraine is being considered in the previous reporting period. Russia is providing free travel vouchers for families of wounded soldiers accompanying them during rehabilitation in the previous reporting period. Ukrainian discussions on military service for women are reported.
Fundraising: Active fundraising efforts for military units, especially for drones and equipment, are being promoted by military bloggers on both sides in the previous reporting period.
Psychological Support: The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War is providing psychological support for families of captured and missing Ukrainian defenders in the previous reporting period.
Reconstruction and Investment: Ukraine's ratification of the agreement with the US on subsoil use and creating an investment fund indicates efforts to attract investment for reconstruction and development. Олександр Вілкул details significant water infrastructure restoration projects.
Personnel Recruitment and Retention: Ukrainian businesses are focusing on HR solutions to retain talent and attract new employees, acknowledging the impact of the war on the workforce in the previous reporting period. Russian military enlistment campaigns continue in various regions in the previous reporting period.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Russia: Continues to utilize various weapon systems including artillery, MLRS, guided aerial bombs, and drones (including FPV and Shaheds). Employing ground forces in offensive operations, particularly on eastern and southern axes, and in border regions. Conducting training exercises. Showcasing military equipment during parade rehearsals. Russian Ministry of Defense provides detailed claims of Ukrainian losses inflicted by various Russian groupings of forces ("Sever," "Zapad," "Yug," "Tsentr," "Vostok," "Dnepr"). Russian military bloggers provide insights into tactics and equipment usage. VDV fighters are reported to be actively engaged in repelling Ukrainian attempts in Kursk Oblast, destroying equipment. Colonelcassad reports targeted drone strikes on objects of the Ukrainian 63rd Mechanized Brigade in Torskoye, claiming significant damage and casualties. Рыбарь discusses the use of helicopters against Ukrainian drones.
Ukraine: Employing defensive and limited offensive tactics, including cross-border operations. Utilizing drones for reconnaissance and targeting, including deep strikes. Reorganizing military structure to a corps system. Seeking international military aid, particularly ammunition and air defense. Utilizing specialized units. Investigating alleged war crimes. Ukrainian sources claim inflicting significant casualties on Russian forces in specific battles like Toretsk and in the liberation of areas like the forest north of Lyptsi. Ukraine is focusing on training and personnel management. Ukrainian forces are attempting cross-border operations in Kursk Oblast with infantry and equipment. Recognition of military personnel with "Hero of Ukraine" title highlights individual bravery and unit effectiveness. DeepState shares a video claiming "Specialists" unit fighters are destroying enemy personnel in the village of Huevo. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares videos and photos highlighting the actions and sacrifices of the 49th Separate Assault Battalion "Carpathian Sich."

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The clear disparity between the declared ceasefire and the reality of ongoing combat indicates Russia's lack of genuine commitment to de-escalation and suggests that the ceasefire declaration is primarily an information operation or a tool in broader diplomatic maneuvers. This necessitates continued vigilance and operational readiness on the Ukrainian side. Poddubny's commentary on the non-observance and retaliatory actions supports this.
The continued Ukrainian cross-border activity in Kursk Oblast, despite Russian counter-efforts and claims of destroyed equipment, suggests an ongoing strategy to create diversions, exert pressure on Russian border regions, or potentially disrupt logistics and command and control. The intensity of fighting reported by Russian sources in this area, including the involvement of VDV, highlights the significance of these Ukrainian efforts from a Russian perspective.
The potential for the EU to officially accuse Russia of chemical weapon use has significant strategic implications, potentially leading to increased international pressure, new sanctions, and further isolation of Russia. This could also impact the legal and ethical dimensions of the conflict and future accountability efforts.
Ukraine's military reorganization to a corps structure is a strategic decision aimed at improving operational effectiveness and adaptability in the long term, addressing the challenges of managing forces in a dynamic conflict.
The ongoing high-level military dialogue between Ukraine and the EU underscores the continued importance of international military aid and cooperation for Ukraine's defense capabilities and strategic planning. The focus on specific needs like ammunition and air defense highlights current operational priorities. The confirmation of F-16 technical personnel training in Romania and the Netherlands is a tangible example of this ongoing support.
The focus on Victory Day by both sides highlights the significant role of historical narratives and information operations in the conflict. Understanding and countering Russian propaganda, particularly regarding historical revisionism and the framing of the current conflict, is crucial for maintaining domestic support and international solidarity. The restrictions on Russian Victory Day symbols in Kazakhstan reflect geopolitical tensions and the broader international context of the conflict. Mash on Donbas's showcasing of pro-Russian events in occupied territories is a clear information operation effort.
The continued robust fundraising efforts by military bloggers and associated groups on both sides indicate the significant resource demands of the conflict and the reliance on non-governmental support to sustain operations. This also highlights the level of public engagement and support for the military efforts.
The ongoing Russian-Chinese strategic partnership, as evidenced by the continued high-level discussions, signing of cooperation documents, and increasing trade in national currencies, has significant long-term geopolitical implications, potentially impacting the global balance of power, the international response to the conflict, and the effectiveness of Western sanctions. Their joint statement on global strategic stability and call for dialogue without Cold War tactics reflects their shared perspective on the current international order. Their stance on the Ukrainian crisis, while supporting peace efforts, emphasizes addressing "root causes," aligning with Russia's framing of the conflict.
Ukraine's parliamentary ratification of agreements with the US regarding subsoil use and an investment fund signals efforts to attract foreign investment for post-conflict recovery and development, which is crucial for long-term strategic stability.
The European Parliament's resolution condemning Russia for the kidnapping of Ukrainian children and calling for accountability highlights the international focus on war crimes and human rights violations, contributing to legal and political pressure on Russia.
The claimed high Russian casualties in specific battles like Toretsk, if accurate, highlight the significant human cost of the conflict for Russia and could impact their ability to sustain offensive operations. This also underscores the intensity of fighting in key areas.
Reports of internal issues within Russia, such as the scandal in Armenia, the expired gifts for pensioners, and the liquidation of an Uzbek ethnic organization, while not directly military, can provide insights into potential domestic instability, public sentiment, and the effectiveness of regional governance, which could indirectly impact the war effort. The liquidation of the Uzbek organization suggests a focus on controlling diaspora groups perceived as a potential threat.
The reported damage from repeated Ukrainian UAV strikes on the Shaikovka strategic aviation airfield, particularly to infrastructure related to Kh-22 missiles and fuel storage, highlights Ukraine's capability to conduct deep strikes and target Russian strategic assets. This can impact Russia's ability to conduct long-range strikes and potentially strain their logistical capabilities.
The recognition of Ukrainian military personnel with the title "Hero of Ukraine," including the Head of the SBU and fallen soldiers, serves to boost morale, honor sacrifices, and highlight successful actions. This can have a positive impact on the motivation and effectiveness of Ukrainian forces. The posthumous awards underscore the human cost and intensity of the fighting.
Turkey's potential role as a mediator, reportedly welcomed by both Erdogan and Trump, could offer a diplomatic avenue for de-escalation or peace talks, although the sincerity and feasibility of such mediation remain uncertain given the current environment. Colonelcassad's commentary on Turkish military sales to Kazakhstan and support for Ukraine highlights the complex and sometimes contradictory nature of international relations surrounding the conflict.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report