Sitrep 2025-05-08 05:16:13

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 8, 2025, 05:15 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational landscape continues to be defined by intense ground combat, particularly in eastern and southern Ukraine, alongside persistent aerial and drone activity from both sides targeting military and civilian infrastructure. Cross-border activity in the Sumy and Kursk regions remains a point of tension, with claims of Ukrainian attempts to penetrate Russian territory and Russian efforts to repel them. Information operations from both sides are highly active, heavily influenced by the approaching May 9th Victory Day. Recent reporting highlights ongoing Russian offensive efforts on multiple axes, updated casualty figures for both sides, continued Russian aerial and drone strikes on Ukrainian population centers and military targets, Ukrainian deep strikes targeting Russian industrial and military facilities, and diplomatic maneuvering related to the conflict and regional tensions. New details have emerged regarding civilian casualties and damage from Russian strikes in multiple Ukrainian oblasts, continued Russian offensive actions, the ongoing impact of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian infrastructure, and further insights into Russian internal security concerns and propaganda efforts.

Significant updates in the past hour and slightly older include:

Continued Civilian Casualties and Damage from Russian Strikes: Updated reports from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast confirm a 72-year-old woman was injured and 4 private houses and a shop damaged by Russian KAB strikes on Novopavlivska community. A drone attack on Velykomykhailivska community damaged a house but caused no casualties. Artillery and kamikaze drone attacks on Nikopol and Marhanets communities damaged an enterprise and a car, with no casualties. ASTRA and the Head of the Kherson Oblast Military Administration report 6 people were injured and 3 multi-story buildings and 6 private houses were damaged by Russian attacks in Kherson Oblast in the past day. ASTRA, citing the Donetsk Oblast Prosecutor's Office, provides detailed information on a Russian aviation strike on a multi-story building in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, using a FAB-250 guided bomb with a UMPK module. This strike resulted in 12 civilian injuries (3 men, 1 woman with moderate injuries; 8 civilians with light injuries) and potentially one woman under the rubble. The strike also damaged 3 multi-story buildings and a shop. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), ASTRA, ASTRA)
Ongoing Intense Ground Combat with Claimed Russian Advances: The Ukrainian General Staff's morning report (as of 08:00 on May 8th) details 196 combat engagements across the front line in the past day. The highest intensity was on the Pokrovsk direction with 61 combat engagements, followed by Novopavlivka with 32, Lyman with 24, Kursk with 19, Toretsk with 13, Kharkiv with 11, Kramatorsk with 10, Orikhiv with 7, Siversk with 6, Kupiansk with 6, Huliaipole with 1 unsuccessful attempt, and Pridniprovskyi with 1 unsuccessful attempt. Рыбарь provides a detailed analysis of the fighting on the Dzerzhinsk direction (often linked to the Toretsk and Konstantinovka axes), claiming Russian forces have increased pressure on the flanks, breached Ukrainian defenses, and are forming "pincers" south of Konstantinovka. He specifically claims Russian forces cleared the western part of Druzhba and expanded control in Dachne by May 1st, and by May 5th were fighting for remaining positions in Dachne and the southern part of Dyliyivka. On the western flank, he claims a massive assault north of Tarasivka on May 2nd led to Russian forces taking most of Aleksandropol and fighting on the eastern outskirts of Novooleinivka. He claims this destabilized Ukrainian defenses, allowing Russian forces to advance towards Novaya Poltavka by May 5th and secure positions on its southern outskirts. He also claims Russian units suppressed Ukrainian positions with artillery and UAVs, crossed a river, and took several strongpoints, liberating Berezovka. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian forces have begun the liberation of Troitskoye and control half of the village. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also claims that on the Konstantinovka direction, Ukrainian forces are withdrawing and taking up less favorable positions behind the T 0504 highway. He claims Russian forces have taken a Ukrainian strongpoint and are fighting near the western part of Novooleinivka, and that fighting is also ongoing in Novaya Poltavka. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Рыбарь, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Continued Russian Aerial and Drone Activity: The Ukrainian General Staff reports that in the past day, the enemy launched 2 missile strikes (2 missiles), 89 air strikes (including 1157 guided bombs), over 6000 shellings (151 from MLRS), and used 2891 kamikaze drones. Air strikes were reported in the areas of Boyaro-Lezhachi (Sumy), Volodymyrivka, Kostiantynivka, Novopil (Donetsk), Malynivka, Huliaipole, Temirivka, Novodarivka, Vysokye, Kamyanske (Zaporizhzhia), and Kozatske (Kherson). Launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation targeting Sumy Oblast have been reported. Russian forces used KABs in strikes on Novopavlivska community in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, injuring a woman. Russian forces used a kamikaze drone in attacks on Nikopol district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. A Russian UAV was shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Олександр Вілкул, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Updated Estimated Russian Losses: The Ukrainian General Staff reports estimated Russian losses for the past day as 1200 personnel, 2 tanks, 10 armored fighting vehicles, 50 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 1 air defense system, 141 operational-tactical UAVs, 120 vehicles/fuel tanks, and 2 units of special equipment. The total estimated Russian personnel losses since February 24, 2022, are now 961,970. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна)
Ukrainian Deep Strikes and Counter-UAV Efforts: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video claiming that Russian FPV drone crews destroyed two enemy transports with personnel and an enemy UAV control antenna. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Impact of Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Russian Infrastructure and Internal Commentary: ASTRA reports, citing sources, that not only mobile internet but also cellular service (calls) may be disconnected in Moscow on May 9th from 9 am to 12-13 pm for security reasons. The source claims Moscow hasn't been "covered" like this before, suggesting training happened in the regions. This indicates the significant perceived threat of Ukrainian drone attacks and the level of disruption expected or implemented for security during Victory Day. ТАСС reports that Novokuznetsk airport is temporarily closed due to technical reasons. While not explicitly linked to Ukrainian attacks, this could be a consequence of, or a precautionary measure related to, drone activity as seen in other Russian airports. WarGonzo claims that due to drone attacks, airlines are forced to delay or cancel flights across Russia, impacting ordinary people. (ASTRA, ТАСС, WarGonzo)
Information Operations and Narratives surrounding Victory Day: Басурин о главном shares a historical note commemorating the opening of the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier memorial in Moscow in 1967, emphasizing its significance and the heroism of Soviet soldiers in WWII. This is a clear effort to link the current conflict to the historical narrative of Soviet victory. Басурин о главном also shares commentary criticizing European politicians for allegedly being "offended" by Russia's victory in WWII and accusing them of creating the EU and hindering those who seek historical truth. He praises thinking politicians in the EU like Robert Fico for speaking out and not fearing threats from Brussels. He also suggests alternative routes to travel to Moscow for Victory Day, like through Turkey. ТАСС reports that all payments to WWII veterans for the 80th anniversary of Victory should be completed by May 9th. This highlights state support for veterans and reinforces the importance of the commemoration. WarGonzo frames Ukrainian drone attacks as "terrorism" aimed at disrupting the Victory Parade and demonstrating the Ukrainian regime's alleged terrorist nature. He claims Ukraine is trying to spoil the parade hoping politicians will skip it for safety reasons, attributing it to "banal envy" towards Russia. He asserts Russia successfully resists any threats and that May 9th is a sacred holiday symbolizing courage, truth, and national unity. (Басурин о главном, Басурин о главном, ТАСС, WarGonzo)
Russian Internal Security Concerns: ASTRA reports, citing sources, the potential disconnection of mobile internet and cellular service in Moscow on May 9th for security reasons due to perceived "dangerous proximity." This highlights the level of internal security concerns related to potential Ukrainian actions. Fighterbomber denies claims of a cadet hacking the Ministry of Defense, attributing the incident to the cadet selling password-stealing software on an ad website. This indicates that while a serious internal issue occurred, the widely reported claims of a direct MOD hack may be exaggerated or false, but it still points to internal security vulnerabilities. Полиция Хабаровского края reports two criminal cases of fraud in Nikolaevsk-on-Amur, including investment scams and defrauding a pensioner. While not directly related to the conflict, these reports highlight internal crime issues. (ASTRA, Fighterbomber, Fighterbomber, Fighterbomber, Полиция Хабаровского края)
Ukrainian Military Leadership Discussions: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА reports on discussions about introducing military service for women in Ukraine. He speculates this is due to manpower shortages. This is a potential significant policy development regarding future Ukrainian mobilization and force structure. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА)
Increased "Yunarmia" Membership: ТАСС reports that the membership of "Yunarmia," a Russian youth military-patriotic movement, has exceeded 1.8 million people. This indicates continued efforts to engage Russian youth in military-related activities and promote patriotic values. (ТАСС)
Recovery Efforts: РБК-Україна reports that power supply has been restored to all subscribers in Poltava Oblast after yesterday's Russian shelling. This highlights successful Ukrainian efforts in restoring critical infrastructure. (РБК-Україна)
Airport Restrictions Lifted: ТАСС reports that restrictions on the reception and departure of aircraft at airports in Ivanovo and Yaroslavl have been lifted. This indicates a return to normal operations after previous disruptions, likely related to security concerns or drone activity. (ТАСС)
Incident in Paris: ТАСС reports a car drove into a crowd of PSG fans celebrating, injuring three people. This is an unrelated international incident. (ТАСС)

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Pokrovsk Direction: Remains the most intense area of combat with 61 engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff in the past day. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Novopavlivka Direction: Experienced the second-highest intensity with 32 engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff in the past day. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Lyman Direction: Experienced 24 engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff in the past day. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Kursk Direction: Experienced 19 engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff in the past day. Russian forces conducted 7 air strikes (19 guided bombs) and 325 artillery/MLRS shellings here. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Toretsk Direction: Experienced 13 engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff in the past day. Рыбарь reports intense fighting and claimed Russian advances here, forming "pincers" south of Konstantinovka. ASTRA reports a Russian aviation strike on a multi-story building in Kostiantynivka using a FAB-250 guided bomb, resulting in 12 civilian injuries and potential entrapment. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Рыбарь, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA)
Kharkiv Direction: Experienced 11 engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff in the past day. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Kramatorsk Direction: Experienced 10 engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff in the past day. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Orikhiv Direction: Experienced 7 engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff in the past day. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Siversk Direction: Experienced 6 engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff in the past day. ТАСС reports alleged Ukrainian preparations for provocations here to discredit Russian authorities. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС)
Kupiansk Direction: Experienced 6 engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff in the past day. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Huliaipole Direction: Experienced 1 unsuccessful Russian attempt to advance reported by the Ukrainian General Staff in the past day. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Pridniprovskyi Direction: Experienced 1 unsuccessful Russian attempt to advance reported by the Ukrainian General Staff in the past day. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Dzerzhinsk Direction: Рыбарь provides detailed analysis of intense fighting and claimed Russian advances here, forming "pincers" south of Konstantinovka. (Рыбарь)
Konstantinovka Direction: Рыбарь reports claimed Russian advances south of Konstantinovka as part of "pincers" on the Dzerzhinsk direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Ukrainian forces are withdrawing and taking up less favorable positions here. (Рыбарь, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Novopavlivska community (Synelnykove district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Hit by Russian KAB strikes, injuring a 72-year-old woman and damaging houses and a shop. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА))
Velykomykhailivska community (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Hit by a Russian drone attack, damaging a house but causing no casualties. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА))
Nikopol and Marhanets communities (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Attacked by Russian artillery and a kamikaze drone, damaging an enterprise and a car, with no casualties. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Олександр Вілкул, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Kryvyi Rih district (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Situation reported as controlled with no overnight shelling. (Олександр Вілкул)
Sumy Oblast: Russian tactical aviation launched guided aerial bombs (KABs) here. Ukrainian General Staff reports an air strike on Boyaro-Lezhachi. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Kherson Oblast: 6 people injured and 9 houses damaged by Russian attacks. Ukrainian General Staff reports an air strike on Kozatske. (ASTRA, ASTRA, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Kostiantynivka (Donetsk Oblast): Hit by a Russian aviation strike using a FAB-250 guided bomb, resulting in 12 civilian injuries and potentially one person under the rubble, and damage to 3 multi-story buildings and a shop. Ukrainian General Staff reports an air strike here. (ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Volodymyrivka (Donetsk Oblast): Ukrainian General Staff reports an air strike here. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Novopil (Donetsk Oblast): Ukrainian General Staff reports an air strike here. Рыбарь reports claimed Russian advances near Novopil on the Novopavlivka axis. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Рыбарь)
Malynivka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Ukrainian General Staff reports an air strike here. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Temirivka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Ukrainian General Staff reports an air strike here. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Novodarivka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Ukrainian General Staff reports an air strike here. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Vysokye (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Ukrainian General Staff reports an air strike here and 1 unsuccessful Russian attempt to advance in this direction. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Kamyanske (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Ukrainian General Staff reports an air strike here and that Ukrainian defenders successfully repelled 7 enemy attacks in this area. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Dzerzhinsk (Donetsk Oblast): Рыбарь reports intense fighting and claimed Russian advances on the Dzerzhinsk direction. (Рыбарь)
Druzhba (Donetsk Oblast): Рыбарь claims Russian forces cleared the western part of this settlement by May 1st. (Рыбарь)
Dachne (Donetsk Oblast): Рыбарь claims Russian forces expanded control here by May 1st and by May 5th were fighting for remaining positions. (Рыбарь)
Dyliyivka (Donetsk Oblast): Рыбарь claims Russian forces were fighting for the southern part of this settlement by May 5th. (Рыбарь)
Tarasivka (Donetsk Oblast): Рыбарь claims a massive Russian assault north of here on May 2nd. (Рыбарь)
Aleksandropol (Donetsk Oblast): Рыбарь claims Russian forces took most of this settlement on May 2nd. (Рыбарь)
Novooleinivka (Donetsk Oblast): Рыбарь claims Russian forces were fighting on the eastern outskirts of this settlement by May 2nd. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims fighting near the western part here. (Рыбарь, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Novaya Poltavka (Donetsk Oblast): Рыбарь claims Russian forces advanced towards and secured positions on the southern outskirts of this settlement by May 5th. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims fighting is ongoing here. (Рыбарь, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Berezovka (Donetsk Oblast): Рыбарь claims Russian units liberated this settlement. (Рыбарь)
Troitskoye (Donetsk Oblast): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian forces have begun the liberation of this village and control half of it. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Otradne (Donetsk Oblast): Рыбарь reports claimed Russian advances in the direction of Otradne on the Novopavlivka axis. (Рыбарь)
Moscow (Russia): Potential disconnection of mobile internet and cellular service on May 9th for security reasons. (ASTRA)
Novokuznetsk (Russia): Airport temporarily closed due to technical reasons. (ТАСС)
Ivanovo and Yaroslavl (Russia): Airport restrictions have been lifted. (ТАСС)
Nikolaevsk-on-Amur (Khabarovsk Krai, Russia): Reports of fraudulent activities. (Полиция Хабаровского края)
Paris (France): Vehicle incident injuring three people. (ТАСС)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Ukrainian General Staff reports Russia used 2891 kamikaze drones in the past day and 141 operational-tactical UAVs were destroyed. A Russian UAV was shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian forces used a kamikaze drone in attacks on Nikopol district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video claiming Russian FPV drone crews destroyed two enemy transports with personnel and an enemy UAV control antenna. ASTRA reports potential disconnection of mobile internet and cellular service in Moscow on May 9th for security reasons due to perceived "dangerous proximity" of drones. WarGonzo claims drone attacks are causing airline delays and cancellations across Russia. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Олександр Вілкул, Оперативний ЗСУ, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, ASTRA, WarGonzo)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Ukrainian General Staff reports Russia launched 1157 guided bombs in the past day. Russian tactical aviation launched guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting Sumy Oblast. Russian forces used KABs in strikes on Novopavlivska community in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, injuring a woman. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА))
Missile Activity: Ukrainian General Staff reports Russia launched 2 missile strikes using 2 missiles in the past day. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Aviation: Ukrainian General Staff reports Russia conducted 89 air strikes in the past day. Russian tactical aviation launched guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting Sumy Oblast. Russian forces conducted air strikes in the areas of Boyaro-Lezhachi (Sumy), Volodymyrivka, Kostiantynivka, Novopil (Donetsk), Malynivka, Huliaipole, Temirivka, Novodarivka, Vysokye, Kamyanske (Zaporizhzhia), and Kozatske (Kherson). (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Ukrainian General Staff reports Russia conducted over 6000 shellings, including 151 from MLRS, in the past day. Russian forces conducted artillery and MLRS shellings on the Kursk direction (325 shellings, 1 MLRS) and used artillery in attacks on Nikopol and Marhanets communities. Ukrainian General Staff reports 50 artillery systems and 1 MLRS were destroyed in the past day. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Олександр Вілкул, Оперативний ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Victory Day Narratives: Russian sources are heavily promoting the historical significance of Victory Day, linking it to the current conflict and criticizing European politicians. State support for WWII veterans is highlighted. WarGonzo frames Ukrainian actions as terrorism aimed at disrupting the parade. (Басурин о главном, Басурин о главном, ТАСС, WarGonzo)
Ukrainian Military Policy Discussions: Discussions about introducing military service for women in Ukraine. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА)

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security Concerns: Potential disconnection of mobile internet and cellular service in Moscow on May 9th for security reasons. Denial of a MOD hack claim, but confirmation of a cadet selling password-stealing software. Reports of fraudulent activities. (ASTRA, Fighterbomber, Fighterbomber, Fighterbomber, Полиция Хабаровского края)
Impact of Ukrainian Attacks: Potential widespread airline delays and cancellations due to drone attacks. Temporary airport closure in Novokuznetsk. (WarGonzo, ТАСС)
Youth Engagement: Increased membership in "Yunarmia." (ТАСС)

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Humanitarian Situation: Civilian injuries and damage to residential and commercial infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Donetsk Oblasts due to Russian strikes. Potential for further casualties under rubble in Kostiantynivka. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA)
Infrastructure Restoration: Power restored in Poltava Oblast after shelling. (РБК-Україна)
Veteran Support: Completion of payments to WWII veterans by May 9th. (ТАСС)

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.