Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 7, 2025, 13:33 UTC)
Updated Situation
The operational environment is marked by continued intense ground combat on key axes, large-scale Russian aerial and drone attacks impacting civilian infrastructure and resulting in casualties, and ongoing Ukrainian deep strikes into Russian territory. The situation in Dagestan following the shooting incident remains a notable internal security event in Russia. Information operations are heavily focused on the upcoming Victory Day, with competing narratives regarding the conflict and alleged actions of both sides. Recent developments highlight continued Russian claims of tactical advances, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, persistent Russian aerial and artillery strikes across wide areas of Ukraine, confirmed Ukrainian drone attacks targeting industrial and potentially military-related facilities deep within Russia, and reports of the human cost of the conflict on civilian populations. The confirmed prisoner exchange is a significant humanitarian development. The latest reports underscore the continued dynamic nature of drone warfare and counter-drone efforts, ongoing internal security concerns in Russia, and the use of propaganda surrounding historical events. New information also provides further details on civilian casualties in Kyiv from recent Russian attacks and the use of North Korean-supplied MLRS by Russia. Ukrainian forces continue to deny any Russian proposed "ceasefire" and report ongoing combat activity.
Significant new developments and analysis from the latest messages (past hour and slightly older):
Continued Civilian Casualties in Kyiv:ASTRA reports two fatalities (mother and son) and six injuries (four children) in Kyiv from the Russian drone attack on the night of May 7th/8th, specifically in the Shevchenkivskyi and Sviatoshynskyi districts. The report details the destruction of an apartment in Shevchenkivskyi where the fatalities occurred and notes they were reportedly animal volunteers, with five cats also killed and one severely injured. In Sviatoshynskyi, a multi-story building was hit, causing six injuries. This underscores the direct and tragic impact of Russian aerial attacks on the civilian population in Kyiv and provides specific details on the victims and damage. ASTRA also provides photographic and video evidence of the damage to a residential building in Kyiv, confirming the scale of destruction and the involvement of emergency services.(ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA)
Russian Response to Ukrainian Drone Attacks and Ceasefire Proposal:РБК-Україна reports Peskov's statement attributing temporary mobile internet restrictions in Moscow during Victory Day to the "dangerous neighborhood" (referencing Ukrainian drone capabilities) and the need for security.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Peskov denying a "stupid fake" about a planned "Oreshnik" missile strike on Kyiv on May 9th and reiterating that no orders for strikes have been given in connection with UAV attacks and that the ceasefire proposal remains in force. However, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 expresses personal conviction that a strike order has been given previously and that missiles are loaded.РБК-Україна shares commentary from a spokesman for the "Khortytsia" operational-strategic grouping, who sharply reacted to Putin's "ceasefire" proposal, calling it a "smoke break" ("perekur") rather than a cessation of fire and stating that no preparation for a peaceful gesture is observed, with combat continuing on all but possibly northern directions. This highlights the contrasting narratives regarding a potential ceasefire and the ongoing reality of combat operations, as well as Russia's public justification for internal security measures in response to Ukrainian drone activity.
Russian Assessment of Recent Ukrainian Drone Attack:Рыбарь and Два майора provide a combined assessment of the "massive drone attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine" that occurred "a day before the proposed ceasefire." They report that over 200 drones and missiles were intercepted over multiple Russian oblasts (Tula, Yaroslavl, Belgorod, Moscow, Voronezh, Kostroma, Smolensk, and Republic of Mordovia). They state the targets were industrial facilities and civilian infrastructure, with confirmed fires in industrial zones of Tula and Saransk and no civilian casualties reported at these locations. They highlight the "first mass restriction" of mobile networks in several regions to complicate drone navigation. Crucially, they assess the attack demonstrates the "insufficiency of measures to protect industrial facilities" due to bureaucracy hindering the establishment of fire groups and construction of protective structures. They also state that based on the attack, they do not expect Ukraine to observe the proposed three-day ceasefire and anticipate new attacks during the holidays, and thus expect massive Russian retaliatory strikes. This provides a Russian military blogger perspective on the scale, targets, and perceived effectiveness of the recent Ukrainian drone attack, identifies specific vulnerabilities, and predicts future actions.
Claimed Combat Use of North Korean MLRS by Russia:Kotsnews shares a video purporting to show the combat use of the North Korean M1991 ("Chuchhe-100") 240mm MLRS in the conflict zone. The report notes its 12 launchers on a truck chassis and a claimed range of around 120 kilometers, suggesting it could be used against high-value targets like HIMARS and Patriot systems in conjunction with reconnaissance drones. The report also highlights the availability of ammunition from North Korea. This, if confirmed, provides visual evidence of the deployment and use of North Korean military equipment by Russia and discusses its potential tactical applications. (Kotsnews, Kotsnews)
Continued Ground Engagements and Russian Tactical Success Claims:БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of combat operations by the "Bureviy" brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine on the Kupiansk direction, showing them repelling Russian infantry and mechanized assaults and destroying targets that threaten their positions. This highlights continued intense fighting on the Kupiansk front and the defensive actions of Ukrainian forces. MoD Russia shares a video claiming that a TOS-2 Tosochka crew of the Tsentr Group hit Ukrainian positions on the Krasnoarmeysk direction, destroying a fortified stronghold and facilitating the advancement of assault detachments. This is a Russian claim of successful use of a thermobaric system to support ground advances on a key front.
International Recognition of Aircraft Losses in Pakistan-India Border Incident:Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns report that India has recognized the loss of four out of five aircraft claimed shot down by Pakistan in the recent border incident: two "Rafales," one Su-30MKI, and one Mirage 2000. They note that Pakistan appears to have the advantage in terms of claimed downed aircraft, while India has only claimed abstract destruction of terrorists. They suggest both sides need to decide whether to escalate or de-escalate. This provides an update on the disputed outcome of the air engagement between India and Pakistan and highlights the ongoing tension.
Russian Information Operation - "25 Years of Sovereignty":Басурин о главном shares a video promoting a project titled "25 Reasons to be Proud," marking 25 years since Putin's first inauguration. The project highlights themes of Russian sovereignty, progress, national unity, respect for ancestors, and future development, using quotes from Putin. This exemplifies a concerted effort by Russia to promote a narrative of national resurgence and strong leadership under Putin, likely timed to coincide with the upcoming Victory Day. (Басурин о главном, Басурин о главном)
Detention of Activist in St. Petersburg:Север.Реалии reports the detention of activist Darya Kheikinen in St. Petersburg. The reason for her detention is unknown, but she was previously involved in anti-war protests and a case related to "telephone terrorism." This indicates continued pressure and detention of individuals perceived as being in opposition to the Russian government.
Public Awareness Campaign on Energy Efficiency in Ukraine:🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares an infographic promoting energy efficiency habits for Ukrainian citizens. The infographic provides tips on saving money on electricity and heating. While not directly military, this is relevant in the context of ongoing Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure and highlights efforts to promote energy independence and resilience. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)
Updates on Moscow Infrastructure:Новости Москвы reports that MOEK (Moscow United Energy Company) has launched a Telegram bot with the schedule for hot water disconnections in Moscow homes. While a routine maintenance issue, it is reported in a Moscow-focused channel. (Новости Москвы, Новости Москвы)
US Navy Aircraft Loss in Red Sea:Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that a US F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jet from the aircraft carrier "Harry Truman" crashed in the Red Sea, the second such incident in a week. The pilots ejected safely. The previous crash reportedly occurred while attempting to evade a Houthi attack. This highlights operational incidents involving US naval forces in the Red Sea region and their ongoing engagement with Houthi forces. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
EU Consideration of Tariffs on Boeing Aircraft:ТАСС reports that the European Commission is considering introducing trade tariffs on Boeing aircraft as a retaliatory measure against US-imposed tariffs, citing the Financial Times. This indicates ongoing trade disputes between the EU and the US, which could have broader economic implications. (ТАСС)
Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)
Kyiv:Targeted by Russian drone attack on the night of May 7th/8th, resulting in two fatalities (mother and son), six injuries (four children), and damage to residential buildings in the Shevchenkivskyi and Sviatoshynskyi districts.(ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA)
Tula Oblast (Russia):Included in the area of the "massive drone attack" and intercepts.Fires confirmed in industrial zones of Tula following the attack.(Рыбарь, Рыбарь, Два майора, Два майора)
Yaroslavl Oblast (Russia):Included in the area of the "massive drone attack" and intercepts.(Рыбарь, Рыбарь, Два майора, Два майора)
Belgorod Oblast (Russia):Included in the area of the "massive drone attack" and intercepts.(Рыбарь, Рыбарь, Два майора, Два майора)
Moscow Oblast (Russia):Included in the area of the "massive drone attack" and intercepts.(Рыбарь, Рыбарь, Два майора, Два майора)
Voronezh Oblast (Russia):Included in the area of the "massive drone attack" and intercepts.(Рыбарь, Рыбарь, Два майора, Два майора)
Kostroma Oblast (Russia):Included in the area of the "massive drone attack" and intercepts.(Рыбарь, Рыбарь, Два майора, Два майора)
Smolensk Oblast (Russia):Included in the area of the "massive drone attack" and intercepts.(Рыбарь, Рыбарь, Два майора, Два майора)
Republic of Mordovia (Russia - Saransk):Included in the area of the "massive drone attack" and intercepts.Confirmed fires in industrial zones of Saransk following the attack, reportedly targeting "Saranskkaбель" and "Optical Fiber Systems."(Рыбарь, Рыбарь, Два майора, Два майора)
Pokrovsk Direction:Reported as a key area of intense ground combat by Ukrainian forces.(БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Krasnoarmeysk Direction:Russian forces reportedly used TOS-2 Tosochka on Ukrainian positions.(MoD Russia, MoD Russia)
Kupiansk Direction:Site of combat operations by the Ukrainian "Bureviy" brigade, repelling Russian assaults.(БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) Area:Russian sources claim the guidance of multiple FABs on enemy positions northwest of the settlement.(Два майора, Два майора)
Red Sea:Site of a US F/A-18 Super Hornet crash from the aircraft carrier "Harry Truman."(Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
St. Petersburg (Russia):Detention of activist Darya Kheikinen reported.(Север.Реалии)
Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):
Drone Activity:Massive Ukrainian drone attack reported on multiple Russian oblasts (Tula, Yaroslavl, Belgorod, Moscow, Voronezh, Kostroma, Smolensk, Republic of Mordovia), with over 200 drones and missiles reportedly intercepted.Confirmed fires in industrial zones of Tula and Saransk following the attack.Russian authorities implemented temporary mobile internet restrictions in Moscow and other regions during the attack and upcoming Victory Day.Russian sources highlight the insufficiency of measures to protect industrial facilities against drone attacks.Continued reports of Russian drone activity across Ukraine, including the recent attack on Kyiv resulting in casualties and damage.Russian claim of using FPV drones effectively in combat.(РБК-Україна, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Рыбарь, Рыбарь, Два майора, Два майора, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, Kotsnews, Kotsnews)
Ballistic Missile Activity:ASTRA reports President Zelenskyy stating Russia launched 4 ballistic missiles and 142 drones (half of which were "Shaheds") overnight.(ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA)
MLRS Activity:Kotsnews shares video purportedly showing the combat use of the North Korean M1991 ("Chuchhe-100") 240mm MLRS by Russia.(Kotsnews, Kotsnews)
Thermobaric Weaponry:MoD Russia shares video claiming the use of a TOS-2 Tosochka thermobaric system on Ukrainian positions on the Krasnoarmeysk direction.(MoD Russia, MoD Russia)
Aviation Activity:Reports of US F/A-18 Super Hornet crashes from the aircraft carrier "Harry Truman" in the Red Sea.(Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Naval Activity:US aircraft carrier "Harry Truman" operating in the Red Sea.(Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):
Prisoner Exchange:Confirmed exchange of 205 personnel on each side, mediated by the UAE.(ТАСС, MoD Russia, WarGonzo, Colonelcassad, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Russian Ceasefire Proposal:Peskov reiterates the proposal remains in force, despite Ukrainian drone attacks.Ukrainian military spokesman sharply rejects the proposal, calling it a "smoke break" and confirming ongoing combat.(Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Russian Justification for Security Measures:Peskov attributes temporary mobile internet restrictions in Moscow to the "dangerous neighborhood" (Ukrainian drone capabilities).(РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
International Recognition of Aircraft Losses (India-Pakistan):India recognizes the loss of four aircraft to Pakistan in a recent border incident.(Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns)
Russian Information Operation - "25 Years of Sovereignty":Promotion of a project highlighting Russian national resurgence and leadership under Putin.(Басурин о главном, Басурин о главном)
Detention of Activist in Russia:Detention of Darya Kheikinen in St. Petersburg reported.(Север.Реалии)
Public Awareness Campaign in Ukraine:Campaign promoting energy efficiency habits for citizens.(🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)
EU Trade Tariffs:European Commission considering tariffs on Boeing aircraft in response to US tariffs.(ТАСС)
Internal Russian Issues (Updated):
Internal Security Incident:Ongoing situation in Makhachkala, Dagestan, following the shooting attack on traffic police.
Airspace Security and Restrictions:Temporary restrictions on air travel at multiple Russian airports and mobile internet restrictions in Moscow and other regions due to Ukrainian drone attacks.(Рыбарь, Рыбарь, Два майора, Два майора, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Infrastructure Damage:Fires confirmed in industrial zones of Tula and Saransk following Ukrainian drone attacks.(Рыбарь, Рыбарь, Два майора, Два майора)
Internal Criticism:Russian military bloggers assess the insufficiency of measures to protect industrial facilities from drone attacks due to bureaucracy.(Рыбарь, Рыбарь, Два майора, Два майора)
Dissent and Detention:Detention of activist Darya Kheikinen in St. Petersburg reported.(Север.Реалии)
Moscow Infrastructure:Launch of a Telegram bot for hot water disconnection schedules.(Новости Москвы, Новости Москвы)
Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)
Civilian Casualties:Two fatalities and six injuries reported in Kyiv from a Russian drone attack.(ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA)
Infrastructure Damage:Damage to residential buildings in Kyiv from a Russian drone attack.Fires in industrial zones of Tula and Saransk from Ukrainian drone attacks.(ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, Рыбарь, Рыбарь, Два майора, Два майора)
Animal Rescue Efforts:Efforts to rescue a severely injured cat and search for others after a building collapse in Kyiv.(ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA)
Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations.
