Sitrep 2025-05-07 11:34:24

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 7, 2025, 11:33 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment remains characterized by intense ground combat across key axes, widespread aerial and drone activity, and Ukrainian deep strikes. Fighting in the Kursk border region is particularly active, with new reports of Ukrainian forces attempting to breach defenses and Russian claims of repelling assaults and destroying Ukrainian equipment. Russian sources have claimed the destruction of an IMR, two M-113 BTRs, a Bradley BMP, and a Kozak BBM in this area. Russian military blogger claims the destruction of a Ukrainian T-64BV tank by artillery on the border of Sumy and Kursk Oblasts. Russian special forces "Akhmat" claim the targeted elimination of a Ukrainian sniper attempting to cross the state border in the Sumy direction. Intense ground engagements continue on key axes, including the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions, with the Ukrainian General Staff reporting a high number of Russian assaults and claiming some tactical initiative has been regained in certain areas. Russian sources are claiming expansion of control and tactical advances on the Southern Donetsk direction (Shakhtarsk and Vremivka axes), specifically claiming entry into the settlement and advancement near Zelenoye Pole and Novopol, though full-scale assaults are reportedly not yet initiated. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims control of Lysivka in the DPR. Drone warfare remains a critical element for both sides, with widespread Russian drone activity reported across numerous Ukrainian oblasts, and Ukrainian drone attacks confirmed against Russian industrial facilities and reportedly military airfields, including the Shaikovka airbase and potentially the Kubinka airbase near Moscow where aircraft intended for the May 9th parade were reportedly struck. Russian air defenses reportedly shot down a Ukrainian drone over Noginsk in the Moscow region. Temporary airport restrictions were lifted in several Russian cities, including Domodedovo, Zhukovsky, Nizhny Novgorod, Tambov, and Yaroslavl, though restrictions were temporarily reimposed in Yaroslavl. An active and perceived imminent threat of Ukrainian drone attack has led to a "red level 'Threat of UAV Attack'" being declared for the city of Yelets and Yelets District in Lipetsk Oblast, Russia. Ukrainian forces claim to have "epically destroyed" two Russian "Supercam" reconnaissance drones and captured one. Russian sources report the use of "Geran" drones against targets in the industrial zone of occupied Sloviansk, causing partial power outages, and active use of FPV drones in Konstantinovka, suggesting efforts to disrupt Ukrainian logistics in the area. The Russian Ministry of Defense shares video claiming to show their "Giatsint-S" self-propelled guns destroying Ukrainian strongholds and command posts on the South Donetsk direction.

Humanitarian impacts continue, with civilian casualties reported in Kyiv (2 dead, 6 injured, including 4 children), Kharkiv Oblast (including from unexploded ordnance), Zaporizhzhia, and in the Russian border regions (Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts). A ballistic missile strike on the suburbs of Sumy resulted in multiple fatalities and injuries, including children. There are also disturbing reports from Ukrainian sources alleging the execution of three Ukrainian prisoners of war by Russian forces near Novopil in Donetsk Oblast, an incident now under investigation. In the Russian-occupied part of Kherson Oblast, a Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked an ambulance on the territory of the central district hospital in Oleshky, injuring a paramedic and severely damaging the vehicle. A Ukrainian drone also reportedly attacked the home of a "district council deputy" in Tarasivka, Kherson Oblast, though no one was present at the time. A Russian FSB claim states the prevention of a terrorist attack in Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, with the detention of three Ukrainian natives.

The information space is heavily contested, with both sides leveraging events for propaganda purposes, particularly ahead of May 9th. This includes Russian information operations regarding Victory Day celebrations, showcasing military parades in Russia and Belarus, claims of military successes, and narratives about countries supporting Ukraine. Russian military blogger shares a promotional video for the "Maxim Krivonos Battalion," reportedly composed of former Ukrainian servicemen who have joined the Russian army to fight the "Zelensky regime." Russian state media highlights the opening of a press center for the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War in Moscow. Russian state media reports on the delayed first flight from Nizhny Novgorod to Sukhum due to temporary closure of airspace after Ukrainian drone attacks, noting international condemnation of resuming flights to Sukhum. Russian state media showcases an invitation to the 2025 Victory Parade. The Governor of Bryansk Oblast in Russia presents state awards to participants of the "special military operation" and representatives of industrial and construction enterprises, highlighting the perceived threat from Ukraine and efforts to rebuild infrastructure in occupied territories. Russian military blogger shares a video of the rehearsal for the Victory Parade in Moscow, highlighting the presence of S-300 and Yars systems, and notably mentioning the inclusion of "Lancet," "Geran," and "Orlan-10" UAVs for the first time. Ukrainian sources are also actively disseminating information and engaging in information operations, including attempting to link internal Russian incidents to the conflict and highlighting alleged strikes on Russian military facilities. A significant large-scale prisoner exchange has occurred, with 205 Ukrainian service members returning home, with both Ukrainian and Russian sources providing visuals and commentary on the event. Russia is also actively promoting its military service through regional campaigns. Ukraine is highlighting the capabilities of its snipers and seeking funding for equipment replacement. Ukraine is reportedly working on legislative changes to prepare the entire civilian population for resistance. Ukraine highlights the awarding of the "Hero of Ukraine" title to a soldier of the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade. Ukrainian sources utilize a video of a Russian breaking a vintage BMW with a rifle to comment on perceived Russian destructiveness and inability to create.

Diplomatic and political discussions continue, alongside reporting on internal Russian issues, including an investigation into corruption within the Ministry of Defense, temporary restrictions on transportation and internet in Moscow due to security concerns, and fire safety regulations hindering drone defense measures. Discussions on international military aid and potential peace conditions also persist, with a US envoy reportedly stating that Putin is the main obstacle to a ceasefire. The Russian Foreign Ministry stated that changes in the German government do not play a role for Russia and that relations are already severely damaged. A Russian military blogger discussed the unlikelihood of the US defeating the Houthis through bombing, drawing parallels to past conflicts and highlighting the Houthis' resilience and external support. Russian officials are discussing negotiations for the return of residents from Sumy to Kursk. There are reports of internal political maneuvering in Armenia related to Russia and the EU. Russia has declared a "Commonwealth of Investigative Journalists" undesirable. Reports indicate that Lithuania and Latvia have closed their airspace to the Serbian President Vucic's plane, potentially preventing his travel to Moscow for the May 9th parade, citing the political sensitivity of the flight's purpose. The President of the European Commission warned that if peace is not on Ukraine's terms, Putin will attack again, advocating for continued support for Ukraine's defense industry and cessation of Russian gas imports. Russian state media reports on a request to check the legality of universities issuing degrees in nutrition, citing the absence of "nutritionist" in the list of higher education specialties. Reports indicate a significant drop in the profits of major German car manufacturers in the first quarter of this year.

A significant new development is the detention of a Russian agent in Sumy Oblast by the SBU, accused of collecting intelligence on Ukrainian military positions and movements, and reportedly using Ukrainian military uniform as a disguise. This highlights ongoing counter-intelligence efforts and the methods employed by Russian agents. Ukrainian sources share a video claiming to show Russian sappers engaging in dangerous demining/mining activities, resulting in an explosion.

Escalation in the India-Pakistan Conflict: There is a significant new development regarding escalation between India and Pakistan, with both sides reporting civilian casualties after mutual attacks. Pakistan claims 26 civilian deaths and 46 injured from alleged Indian missile attacks, while India reports three civilian deaths from Pakistani retaliatory strikes. India claims to have struck nine terrorist-linked sites in Pakistan, neutralizing 17 terrorists. Pakistan claims to have hit an Indian army brigade headquarters and shot down five Indian fighter jets. Pakistan has called the Indian attack an act of war and warned of potential direct confrontation between the nuclear powers. The UN Secretary-General and Donald Trump have commented on the conflict, expressing concern and hoping for a swift resolution. A representative of the Spiritual Administration of Muslims of Russia suggested Russia should accept refugees if the conflict escalates.

Israeli Airstrikes in Yemen: Confirmed Israeli military action against Houthi targets in Yemen, including a significant strike on Sana'a International Airport, which is claimed to be "completely disabled." The strikes are reportedly in response to a missile launch at Ben Gurion Airport and targeted runways, equipment, facilities, power stations, and a cement plant allegedly used for tunnels.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Kursk Oblast (Russia): Continued Ukrainian attempt to break through the state border near Novy Put from Sumy Oblast, reportedly utilizing a mine-clearing vehicle, a Stryker, and another armored vehicle, supported by drones. Bridge over the Seym River near Tyotkino reportedly destroyed and unsuitable for heavy equipment. Ukrainian infantry reportedly repelled from the railway station area in Tyotkino and pushed back across the border. Combat is ongoing in front of the border, with Russian aviation, artillery, and drones engaging, and Russian forces claiming to have prevented a breakthrough. Conflicting reports exist regarding whether Ukrainian forces successfully crossed the border. Civilian casualties confirmed due to Ukrainian FPV drone attack near Shchegolyok (2 killed, 3 injured) and an explosive device dropped near Zvannoye (1 killed). Ukrainian General Staff reports repelling 18 Russian attacks on the Kursk direction with 330 artillery shellings (8 from MLRS), 12 aviation strikes, and 27 guided aerial bombs in the past day. Russian military blogger claims Ukrainian offensive on Tyotkino involved IMR and quad bikes, met by Russian paratroopers and reconnaissance, resulting in the loss of up to 10 units of Ukrainian equipment. Two Mayors military blogger shares video claiming objective control of a destroyed Ukrainian tank near Novy Put in Glushkovsky district by FPV drones and Lancets. Russian Vice-Premier visited Sudzha and southern districts for restoration assessment. Russian Human Rights Commissioner discusses return of Kursk residents from Sumy. Russian air defense reportedly shot down a Ukrainian drone over Noginsk in the Moscow region, potentially related to threats originating from or targeting the border regions. Russian military blogger claims the destruction of a Ukrainian T-64BV tank by artillery on the border of Sumy and Kursk Oblasts. Russian special forces "Akhmat" claim the targeted elimination of a Ukrainian sniper attempting to cross the state border in the Sumy direction. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Alex Parker Returns, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Два майора, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Kadyrov_95)
Pokrovsk Direction: Remains a focal point of intense ground combat. Ukrainian General Staff reported 78 engagements in the past day. Russian military bloggers claim advances on the right flank and fighting within the city itself.
Novopavlivka Direction: Another area with very high intensity, with 24 attempts to break through reported in the past day by the Ukrainian General Staff.
Donetsk Oblast (Lysivka, South Donetsk Direction, Shakhtyorsk Direction, Vremevsky Direction, Bogatyr, South of Otradnoye, Volnoye Pole, Tarasivka, Dyliivka, Petrivka, Malinovka near Mirnohrad, Grigorovka near Siversk, Komar, Zelenoye Pole, Novopol, Novotroitske, Vladimirovka, Sloviansk, Konstantinovka, Artemivske Direction, Chasiv Yar, Marinka): Claimed Russian control of Lysivka. Intense fighting and claimed Russian advances on the South Donetsk direction, including the Shakhtyorsk and Vremevsky directions. Specific claimed gains include expanded control zones in Bogatyr, clearing two tree lines, occupying a height towards Komar, entering the settlement near the Dyliivka railway station, securing a foothold on the southern outskirts of Petrivka, entering the eastern part of Malinovka (near Mirnohrad), and advancing in Grigorovka near Siversk. Claimed Russian advances on the Vremevsky direction include entering the settlement, advancing up to 1 km northeast of Zelenoye Pole, and capturing 8 strongpoints and 3 heights near Novopol. Claimed successful repulsion of Ukrainian counterattacks in Bogatyr, South of Otradnoye, and Volnoye Pole. Claimed Russian strike on a Ukrainian ammunition depot near Novotroitske. Russian claims of engaging a Ukrainian temporary deployment area near Vladimirovka with Geran drones. Russian sources report the use of "Geran" drones against targets in the industrial zone of occupied Sloviansk, causing partial power outages. Russian sources report active use of FPV drones in Konstantinovka, suggesting efforts to disrupt Ukrainian logistics. Russian military blogger claims progress on the Artemivske direction and fighting on the flanks near Chasiv Yar, stating the enemy is consolidating forces. Russian military blogger claims advances in Marinka. Russian military blogger shares video claiming to show their "Giatsint-S" self-propelled guns destroying Ukrainian strongholds and command posts on the South Donetsk direction. Russian military blogger shares video claiming their UAV unit is providing cover for the evacuation of a wounded soldier on the Konstantinovka direction. Ukrainian sources share a video claiming to show Russian sappers engaging in dangerous demining/mining activities, resulting in an explosion. (Previous reports, ТАСС, Воин DV, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Colonelcassad, MoD Russia, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, WarGonzo, Два майора, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Kharkiv Oblast: Under a massive Russian drone attack, with a fire at the Barabashovo market. Number of injured in Kharkiv has risen to 4. Ukrainian General Staff reports four combat engagements in the Vovchansk area on the Kharkiv direction in the past day. Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy air strikes on Zolochiv, Kozacha Lopan, and Pidlyman in Kharkiv Oblast in the past day. Head of the Kharkiv Oblast State Administration reports 4 injured civilians and details on damaged buildings and the Barabashovo market fire. Russian military blogger reports on "Geran" attack on railway hub in Kharkiv, speculating on target being a military object or recruitment center. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Sumy Oblast: Reported origin of the Ukrainian attempt to break through into Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian Air Force reports a group of UAVs from Sumy Oblast heading to Poltava Oblast. Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy air strikes on Vorozhba, Iskriskivshchyna, Myropillia, and Bilopillia in Sumy Oblast in the past day. Russian military blogger reports that the Ukrainian offensive on Tyotkino from Sumy Oblast involved IMR and quad bikes, met by Russian paratroopers and reconnaissance, resulting in the loss of up to 10 units of Ukrainian equipment. Ukrainian Air Force reports continued movement of Russian "Shahed" drones across Sumy Oblast. Russian Human Rights Commissioner discusses return of Kursk residents from Sumy. Russian special forces "Akhmat" claim the targeted elimination of a Ukrainian sniper attempting to cross the state border. Russian military blogger claims the destruction of a Ukrainian T-64BV tank by artillery on the border of Sumy and Kursk Oblasts. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, Kadyrov_95, Colonelcassad)
Moscow Region (Russia): Russian Ministry of Defense claims 19 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over the Moscow region overnight. Airport operations were temporarily suspended. Russian military blogger reports 19 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Moscow and Moscow Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports reported strike on Russian fighter jet location at Kubinka airbase. Russian air defense reportedly shot down a Ukrainian drone over Noginsk. Temporary airport restrictions were lifted in Domodedovo and Zhukovsky. Ukrainian reporting highlights the impact of drone attacks in the Moscow region. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русней Весны, WarGonzo, Военкор Котенок, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Oleshky (Kherson Oblast): Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked an ambulance on the territory of the central district hospital, injuring a paramedic and severely damaging the vehicle. (Два майора, Mash на Донбассе)
Tarasivka (Kherson Oblast): Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked the house of a "district council deputy" appointed by Russia. (ASTRA)
Kakhovka (Kherson Oblast): Russian FSB claims prevention of a terrorist attack and detention of three Ukrainian natives. (ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Tula (Russia): Reported Ukrainian strike on a production building of NPO Splav. (КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno)
Noginsk (Moscow Region, Russia): Russian air defense reportedly shot down a Ukrainian drone. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Odesa Raion (Odesa Oblast): STERNENKO reports a person killed and civilian infrastructure damaged as a result of a Russian strike. Ukrainian Air Force warns of missile danger. (STERNENKO, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Uman (Cherkasy Oblast): Ukrainian Air Force warns of enemy UAV over the city. Updated reports indicate multiple drones near Uman, some circling and some moving through, with warnings of potential impacts. Further reports indicate drones in the area of Uman. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Николаевский Ванёк)
Yaroslavl (Russia): Temporary airport restrictions were temporarily reimposed. (ТАСС, Новости Москвы)
Yelets and Yelets District (Lipetsk Oblast, Russia): Subject to a "red level 'Threat of UAV Attack'" alert. (Игорь Артамонов)
Sana'a (Yemen): Subjected to Israeli airstrikes, primarily targeting Sana'a International Airport, which is claimed to be "completely disabled." Strikes also reportedly hit power stations and a cement plant. (ASTRA, Alex Parker Returns)
Fastiv (Kyiv Oblast): Reports indicate a drone is under Fastiv, moving towards Boyarka. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Cherkasy Oblast (General Area): Reports indicate two drones near Cherkasy. Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy UAVs in the area of Cherkasy. (Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Shpola (Cherkasy Oblast): Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy UAVs in the area of Shpola. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Borova (Kyiv Oblast): Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy UAVs moving past Borova in the eastern direction. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)

Aerial and Drone Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Russian Ministry of Defense claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over 11 regions overnight, including 32 over Bryansk, 22 over Voronezh, 19 over Moscow region, 10 over Penza, 9 over Kaluga, 6 over Belgorod, 2 over Lipetsk, 2 over Samara, 1 over Vladimir, 1 over Kursk, and 1 over Rostov Oblast. Ukrainian forces are reportedly using a large number of drones to support their breakthrough attempt in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian drone operators successfully neutralized a Russian "diver" attempting infiltration. Civilian casualties confirmed in Kursk Oblast due to Ukrainian FPV drone attacks. Ukrainian Air Force reports continued movement of Russian "Shahed" drones across Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, and Kirovohrad Oblasts, including a UAV in the direction of Cherkasy city. Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy used 3344 kamikaze drones and 145 operational-tactical UAVs were destroyed in the past day. Fire at Barabashovo market in Kharkiv is confirmed after a Russian drone attack. Russian Ministry of Defense shares video claiming to show a "Geran-2" UAV strike on Ukrainian forces on the Donetsk direction. Russian military blogger claims successful FPV drone and Lancet strikes destroyed a Ukrainian tank near Novy Put in Glushkovsky district. Governor of Samara Oblast reports three UAVs were shot down over industrial enterprises with no casualties or damage. Head of the Kharkiv Oblast State Administration reports 4 injured from 20 Shahed-type UAVs targeting Kharkiv. STERNENKO reports a person killed and civilian infrastructure damaged in Odesa Raion as a result of a Russian strike, including drones. WarGonzo reports Russian Ministry of Defense claims of 105 Ukrainian drones shot down overnight. Russian military blogger reports 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over 11 regions, providing a breakdown by region. Ukrainian Air Force reports continued movement of Russian "Shahed" drones across Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Colonelcassad shares video claiming destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit near Klinovoe with an optical fiber FPV drone. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports reported strike on Russian fighter jet location at Kubinka airbase near Moscow by UAVs. Russian air defense reportedly shot down a Ukrainian drone over Noginsk, Moscow region. Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked an ambulance in Oleshky, Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked the house of a "district council deputy" in Tarasivka, Kherson Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares analysis from a Russian military blogger on a "massive attack" using 447 long-range UAVs and missiles in one night. Russian military blogger reports on "Geran" attack on railway hub in Kharkiv. Ukrainian reporting highlights the impact of drone attacks in the Moscow region. Ukrainian Air Force warns of enemy UAV over Uman. Russian military blogger claims FPV drone strike on Ukrainian supply vehicle. "Red level 'Threat of UAV Attack'" declared for Yelets and Yelets District in Lipetsk Oblast, Russia. Ukrainian forces claim to have "epically destroyed" two Russian "Supercam" reconnaissance drones and captured one. Updated reports indicate multiple Russian drones near Uman, some circling and some moving through, with warnings of potential impacts. Reports indicate two Russian drones near Cherkasy with warnings of potential impacts. Reports indicate a Russian drone is under Fastiv, moving towards Boyarka. Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy UAVs in the area of Cherkasy, Uman, and Shpola. Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy UAVs moving past Borova in the eastern direction. Russian sources report the use of "Geran" drones against targets in the industrial zone of occupied Sloviansk, causing partial power outages, and active use of FPV drones in Konstantinovka, suggesting efforts to disrupt Ukrainian logistics in the area. Russian Ministry of Defense claims engaging a Ukrainian temporary deployment area near Vladimirovka with Geran drones. Russian military blogger reports that "Lancet," "Geran," and "Orlan-10" UAVs will be showcased at the Victory Parade in Moscow. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русней Весны, AV БогомаZ, WarGonzo, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, РБК-Україна, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, STERNENKO, Военкор Котенок, Colonelcassad, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Mash на Донбассе, Оперативний ЗСУ, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Игорь Артамонов, STERNENKO, Николаевский Ванёк, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, MoD Russia, Басурин о главном)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy dropped 175 guided aerial bombs on Ukraine and 27 on Kursk Oblast in the past day, totaling 202 KABs. Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy air strikes with guided aerial bombs on Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts in the past day. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Missile Activity: Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy launched one missile attack using two missiles in the past day. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares analysis from a Russian military blogger on a "massive attack" using long-range UAVs and missiles, with 447 launched in one night. Ukrainian Air Force warns of missile danger in Odesa Oblast. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Naval Activity: The threat of unmanned boat attacks in Novorossiysk continues, with reports suggesting the use of BECs equipped with air defense systems offshore. High Court of London has allowed Russia to temporarily not execute the decision of the Hague arbitration regarding the recovery of $207.8 million in favor of Ukrainian DTEK Krymenergo for the loss of energy assets in Crimea. This is a legal development with potential implications for financial aspects related to assets in Crimea. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show "Our warriors' work on Ukrainian unmanned boats," depicting the reflection of a USV attack and highlighting the effectiveness of landing craft with machine guns as countermeasures. (Colonelcassad)
Russian Aviation: Russian aviation is reported to be engaging Ukrainian forces in the Kursk direction. Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy conducted 80 air strikes and 12 aviation strikes on the Kursk direction in the past day. Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy air strikes on Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts in the past day. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports reported strike on Russian fighter jet location at Kubinka airbase near Moscow by UAVs, where aircraft for the May 9th parade were stationed. Ukrainian Air Force warns of enemy tactical aviation activity on the southeastern direction with a threat of aviation weapon use for frontline regions. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy conducted over 6100 shellings, including 113 from MLRS, in the past day. Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy conducted 330 artillery shellings, including 8 from MLRS, on the Kursk direction in the past day. Ukrainian General Staff reports 61 Russian artillery systems and one MLRS were destroyed in the past day. Russian military blogger claims the destruction of a Ukrainian T-64BV tank by artillery on the border of Sumy and Kursk Oblasts. Russian sources claim counter-battery fire destroyed 5 artillery systems and 2 mortars on the South Donetsk direction. Russian military blogger shares video claiming to show their "Giatsint-S" self-propelled guns destroying Ukrainian strongholds and command posts on the South Donetsk direction. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Colonelcassad, Воин DV, MoD Russia)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Russian Narrative on Victory Day: The SVR of the Russian Federation is framing European countries' participation in Kyiv's May 9th commemoration as revanchist and cynical, linking them to the Hitler coalition. This is a clear information operation ahead of the commemoration. Two Mayors share a video with a sarcastic caption suggesting Estonians and Lithuanians will watch the May 9th parade in direct broadcast. This is a propaganda message related to the upcoming commemoration and perceived Western attitudes towards Russia. Russian state media highlights the opening of a press center for the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War in Moscow. Russian state media showcases an invitation to the 2025 Victory Parade. The Governor of Bryansk Oblast in Russia presents state awards to participants of the "special military operation" and representatives of industrial and construction enterprises, highlighting the perceived threat from Ukraine and efforts to rebuild infrastructure in occupied territories. Russian military blogger reports that "Lancet," "Geran," and "Orlan-10" UAVs will be showcased at the Victory Parade in Moscow. (ТАСС, Два майора, AV БогомаZ, Басурин о главном)
Israel's Plans for Gaza: Israel has approved a plan for full control and long-term presence in the Gaza Strip. (РБК-Україна)
US Position on WWII: Donald Trump stated that the US won WWI and WWII. (РБК-Україна)
Peace Talks and Ceasefire Calls: President Macron of France and Prime Minister Starmer of Britain have again called on Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire. (РБК-Україна)
US Aid to Gaza: Donald Trump stated that the US will help the residents of Gaza get food and is discussing mechanisms to deliver aid bypassing Hamas. (РБК-Україна)
US Education Policy: TASS reports that the US Department of Education has informed Harvard University about the cessation of grant allocation due to the refusal to follow recommendations on changing its policy. This is a domestic US political/educational development. (ТАСС)
Escalation in India-Pakistan Conflict: РБК-Україна and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны report on the escalation between India and Pakistan, with both sides claiming civilian casualties and Pakistan calling the Indian attack an act of war. The UN Secretary-General and Trump have commented. A representative from the Spiritual Administration of Muslims of Russia suggests Russia should accept refugees. (РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Alex Parker Returns)
Russian Foreign Ministry Comments on German Government Changes: TASS reports that Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, stated that changes in the German government do not play a role for Russia and that relations are already severely damaged. (ТАСС)
Political Maneuvering in Armenia Related to Russia and EU: Рыбарь reports on statements by the Speaker of the Armenian Parliament claiming Russia is waging a "hybrid war" against Armenia and calling a former president a "Russian spy." (Рыбарь)
Russian Human Rights Commissioner Discusses Return of Residents from Sumy: TASS reports that Russian Human Rights Commissioner Moskalenko has conducted "difficult negotiations" on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border regarding the return of residents of Kursk Oblast from Sumy. (ТАСС)
Russia Declares "Commonwealth of Investigative Journalists" Undesirable: Север.Реалии reports that the Russian Prosecutor General's Office has declared the "Commonwealth of Investigative Journalists" undesirable. (Север.Реалии)
Commentary on Donald Trump and Canada: Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) reports on statements by Donald Trump regarding Canada as a trading partner. (Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia))
Israeli-Yemeni Conflict: Confirmed Israeli military action against Houthi targets in Yemen, including a significant strike on Sana'a International Airport. (ASTRA, Alex Parker Returns)
Airspace Restrictions for Serbian President: Reports indicate that Lithuania and Latvia have closed their airspace to the Serbian President Vucic's plane, potentially preventing his travel to Moscow for the May 9th parade, citing the political sensitivity of the flight's purpose. (Север.Реалии)
EU Warning on Future Russian Attacks: The President of the European Commission warned that if peace is not on Ukraine's terms, Putin will attack again, advocating for continued support for Ukraine's defense industry and cessation of Russian gas imports. (РБК-Україна)
Legality of Nutrition Degrees in Russia: Russian state media reports on a request to check the legality of universities issuing degrees in nutrition, citing the absence of "nutritionist" in the list of higher education specialties. (ТАСС)
Profit Drop for German Car Manufacturers: Reports indicate a significant drop in the profits of major German car manufacturers in the first quarter of this year. (Alex Parker Returns)

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security Incident: Shooting attack on traffic police in Makhachkala, Dagestan, resulting in casualties. This indicates a potential internal security issue or unrest in the region. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Incident Involving Nationalist Group: Reported incident in Vsevolozhsk, Leningrad Oblast, involving individuals with "Russian Community" patches allegedly breaking into an apartment, leading to a fire and fatalities. This highlights potential issues with nationalist groups within Russia. (Север.Реалии)
Drone Attacks in Russia: Russian Ministry of Defense claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over 11 regions overnight. Temporary airport restrictions were imposed in multiple Russian cities. Governor of Samara Oblast reports three UAVs were shot down over industrial enterprises. WarGonzo reports on the massive drone attack and claimed downing of 105 Ukrainian drones over 11 regions. Russian military blogger reports 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over 11 regions, providing a breakdown by region. Two Mayors military blogger shares video claiming objective control of a destroyed Ukrainian tank near Novy Put in Glushkovsky district by FPV drones and Lancets. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports reported strike on Russian fighter jet location at Kubinka airbase near Moscow by UAVs. Russian air defense reportedly shot down a Ukrainian drone over Noginsk in the Moscow region. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares analysis from a Russian military blogger on a "massive attack" using 447 long-range UAVs and missiles in one night. Reported Ukrainian strike on a production building of NPO Splav in Tula. Temporary airport restrictions were lifted in Domodedovo, Zhukovsky, Nizhny Novgorod, Tambov, and Yaroslavl, though restrictions were temporarily reimposed in Yaroslavl. Ukrainian reporting highlights the impact of drone attacks in the Moscow region. An active and perceived imminent threat of Ukrainian drone attack has led to a "red level 'Threat of UAV Attack'" being declared for the city of Yelets and Yelets District in Lipetsk Oblast, Russia. Russian state media reports on the delayed first flight from Nizhny Novgorod to Sukhum due to temporary closure of airspace after Ukrainian drone attacks. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русней Весны, AV БогомаZ, WarGonzo, ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno, Новости Москвы, Оперативний ЗСУ, Игорь Артамонов, ASTRA)
Infrastructure Damage: A gas explosion occurred in a residential building in Bulnash, Sverdlovsk Oblast, resulting in one injury and evacuation. (Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС)
Legal Developments: High Court of London has allowed Russia to temporarily not execute the decision of the Hague arbitration regarding the recovery of $207.8 million in favor of Ukrainian DTEK Krymenergo for the loss of energy assets in Crimea. (ТАСС)
Fraudulent Airline Tickets: TASS reports that scammers are creating fake airline websites offering discounted tickets and tours to Russians, with the deception only revealed at the airport. This indicates an internal issue related to cybersecurity and fraud. (ТАСС)
Restoration Efforts in Kursk Oblast: Russian Vice-Premier visited Sudzha and southern districts for restoration assessment. (Colonelcassad)
Citizen Rights Regarding Financial Services: Russian official addresses concerns about credit organizations unilaterally changing terms for clients. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Allegation of Rape by a Convicted Servicemember: Reported detention of a servicemember in Tatarstan previously convicted of carjacking and now accused of rape, highlighting potential issues with personnel with prior convictions. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники)
Discussion on Accepting Refugees from India-Pakistan Conflict: A representative from the Spiritual Administration of Muslims of Russia suggests Russia should accept refugees if the conflict escalates. (Alex Parker Returns)
Declaration of "Commonwealth of Investigative Journalists" as Undesirable: Russian Prosecutor General's Office declares the organization undesirable. (Север.Реалии)
Forecast of Frosts in Bryansk Oblast: Forecast of frosts on May 9th and 10th, potentially impacting agriculture. (AV БогомаZ)
Russian Military Blogger Commentary on Comparisons: Два майора shares a short video with a caption about comparing things. (Два майора)
Information Operations: Russian information operation claiming control of Lysivka and highlighting its strategic importance. Russian military blogger questioning the application of a potential ceasefire in Tyotkino. Russian domestic messaging calling for national unity. Russian information operation showcasing the return of Russian prisoners of war. Russian information operation highlighting the threat of Ukrainian drone attacks by declaring a "red level" alert. Russian information operation showcasing claimed military successes on the South Donetsk direction. Russian information operation reporting on the President of Brazil's visit to Moscow and mediation offer. Russian information operation reporting on a strike on a Ukrainian ammunition depot. Russian information operation showcasing defense against Ukrainian USV attacks. Russian military blogger shares a promotional video for the "Maxim Krivonos Battalion," reportedly composed of former Ukrainian servicemen who have joined the Russian army to fight the "Zelensky regime." Russian state media highlights the opening of a press center for the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War in Moscow. Russian state media reports on the delayed first flight from Nizhny Novgorod to Sukhum due to temporary closure of airspace after Ukrainian drone attacks. Russian state media showcases an invitation to the 2025 Victory Parade. The Governor of Bryansk Oblast in Russia presents state awards to participants of the "special military operation" and representatives of industrial and construction enterprises, highlighting the perceived threat from Ukraine and efforts to rebuild infrastructure in occupied territories. Russian military blogger reports that "Lancet," "Geran," and "Orlan-10" UAVs will be showcased at the Victory Parade in Moscow. Russian state media reports on a request to check the legality of universities issuing degrees in nutrition. Reports indicate a significant drop in the profits of major German car manufacturers in the first quarter of this year, with potential for this to be used in information operations. (ТАСС, Два майора, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Игорь Артамонов, Воин DV, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Colonelcassad, ASTRA, Басурин о главном, ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns)
Legality of Nutrition Degrees: Russian state media reports on a request to check the legality of universities issuing degrees in nutrition, citing the absence of "nutritionist" in the list of higher education specialties. (ТАСС)
German Car Manufacturer Profits: Reports indicate a significant drop in the profits of major German car manufacturers in the first quarter of this year. (Alex Parker Returns)

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Public Morale and Support for Military: Ukrainian 46th Separate Airmobile Podilska Brigade congratulates infantry on Infantry Day. Head of the Kryvyi Rih Defense Council congratulates infantry on Infantry Day, emphasizing their importance. Russian military enlistment campaign in Lipetsk Oblast, promoting service by contract. Ukrainian National Guard unit fundraising for equipment replacement. Showcasing Ukrainian sniper capabilities. Russian military blogger shares a promotional video for the "Maxim Krivonos Battalion," likely aimed at recruitment. Ukrainian information operation highlighting the award of "Hero of Ukraine" to a soldier. The Governor of Bryansk Oblast in Russia presents state awards to participants of the "special military operation" and representatives of industrial and construction enterprises, highlighting the perceived threat from Ukraine and efforts to rebuild infrastructure in occupied territories, likely boosting morale and support. (46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України, Олександр Вілкул, Игорь Артамонов, РБК-Україна, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Оперативний ЗСУ, AV БогомаZ)
Humanitarian Situation: Increased civilian casualties (4 injured) and widespread damage to residential and commercial infrastructure in Kharkiv due to the massive drone attack. Civilian casualties confirmed in Kursk Oblast due to Ukrainian FPV drone attacks (2 killed, 3 injured by drone near Shchegolyok; 1 killed by explosive device near Zvannoye). Reportedly, a man was injured in the Ilaryonivska community of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast due to a morning strike and hospitalized in serious condition. A gas explosion occurred in a residential building in Bulnash, Sverdlovsk Oblast, resulting in one injury and evacuation. Damage at the Barabashovo market in Kharkiv includes around 90 trading facilities damaged and 20 burned. Donald Trump stated that the US will help the residents of Gaza get food. Head of the Kharkiv Oblast State Administration reports 4 injured civilians and details on damaged buildings and the Barabashovo market fire. STERNENKO reports a person killed and civilian infrastructure damaged in Odesa Raion as a result of a Russian strike. Reported injury from morning strike in Ilaryonivska community, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. In Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, a Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked an ambulance, injuring a paramedic and severely damaging the vehicle. Russian Human Rights Commissioner discusses return of Kursk residents from Sumy. Escalation in India-Pakistan conflict with both sides reporting civilian casualties. A representative from the Spiritual Administration of Muslims of Russia suggests Russia should accept refugees if the conflict escalates. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, STERNENKO, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Alex Parker Returns, Mash на Донбассе)
International Aid: Donald Trump stated that the US will help the residents of Gaza get food and is discussing mechanisms to deliver aid bypassing Hamas. (РБК-Україна)
Adoption in Ukraine: 43 children have been adopted in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in 2025, mostly by Ukrainian families. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА))
Veteran Support: Ukrainian government platform for veteran prosthetics and rehabilitation. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Prisoner Exchange: Significant large-scale prisoner exchange with 205 Ukrainian service members returning home. Ukrainian Border Guards share video of the prisoner exchange. Both Ukrainian and Russian sources share visuals and commentary on the prisoner exchange. Details provided on the cumulative number of Ukrainians returned and the condition of some returnees. (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)

Other Information (Updated):

Analysis of Russian Intentions: ISW analysts reported that Russian occupying forces are preparing for a breakthrough in two areas of Donetsk Oblast. (РБК-Україна)
Counter-Infiltration Tactics: Ukrainian forces have successfully utilized drone operators to neutralize a Russian "diver" attempting infiltration, highlighting a specific counter-infiltration tactic. Russian special forces "Akhmat" claim the targeted elimination of a Ukrainian sniper attempting to cross the state border in the Sumy direction. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Kadyrov_95)
Military Losses: Ukrainian General Staff reports estimated cumulative Russian combat losses from February 24, 2022, including 1430 personnel in the past day, 3 tanks, 5 armored personnel vehicles, 61 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 145 operational-tactical UAVs, 103 vehicles and fuel tanks, and 3 units of special equipment. Russian sources claim the destruction of an IMR, two M-113 BTRs, a Bradley BMP, and a Kozak BBM in the Kursk border region. Russian military blogger claims the loss of up to 10 units of Ukrainian equipment during the offensive on Tyotkino. Russian military blogger claims the destruction of a Ukrainian T-64BV tank by artillery on the border of Sumy and Kursk Oblasts. Russian sources claim to have destroyed Ukrainian equipment and over 100 personnel on the South Donetsk direction. Russian sources claim the elimination of a Ukrainian BTR and 7 personnel near Bogatyr and striking a BTR and group near the South of Otradnoye. Russian sources claim counter-battery fire destroyed 5 artillery systems and 2 mortars on the South Donetsk direction. Russian sources claim to have disrupted an evacuation north of Burlatskoye, destroying 6 vehicles, 1 motorcycle, and up to 20 personnel. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Два майора, Colonelcassad, Воин DV)
Russian Military Capabilities Showcase: Russian Ministry of Defense shares video claiming to show a "Geran-2" UAV strike on Ukrainian forces on the Donetsk direction. Russian military blogger reports that "Lancet," "Geran," and "Orlan-10" UAVs will be showcased at the Victory Parade in Moscow. Russian military blogger shares video claiming to show their "Giatsint-S" self-propelled guns destroying Ukrainian strongholds and command posts on the South Donetsk direction. (ТАСС, Басурин о главном, MoD Russia)
Russian Military Blogger Reporting: Russian military bloggers are providing updated summaries of the front lines on the Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Chasov Yar, and Sumy directions. Russian military blogger provides detailed claims of successful defensive and offensive actions on the South Donetsk direction. Russian military blogger shares video claiming their UAV unit is providing cover for the evacuation of a wounded soldier on the Konstantinovka direction. (WarGonzo, Воин DV, Два майора)
Russian Military Anniversaries: Commemoration of the 33rd anniversary of the Russian aerobatic team "Strizhi" (Swifts). (Басурин о главном)
Ukrainian Training: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a mini-film about the "Khartia" training course for recruits, highlighting their adaptation to the realities of the current war. This showcases efforts to prepare Ukrainian forces for combat. Ukraine is reportedly working on legislative changes to prepare the entire civilian population for resistance. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Analysis of a "Massive Attack": БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares analysis from a Russian military blogger on a "massive attack" using long-range UAVs and missiles, with 447 launched in one night, suggesting accumulation of forces and continued attacks. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
FSB Claims Prevention of Terrorist Attack: Russian FSB claims prevention of a terrorist attack and detention of three Ukrainian natives in Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast. (ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Ukrainian Army+ Application Update: Ukrainian General Staff announces updates to the "Army+" application to improve administrative processes for service members. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Russian Military Blogger Claims Strikes on Ukrainian Manpower: Воин DV shares a video claiming that soldiers of the 1st battalion of the 39th separate motorized rifle brigade are striking Ukrainian manpower. (Воин DV)
Russian Military Blogger Claims FPV Drone Strike on Ukrainian Supply Vehicle: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video claiming that FPV drone operators targeted and hit a Ukrainian supply vehicle. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Russian Agent Detention in Sumy Oblast: Detention of a Russian agent in Sumy Oblast by the SBU, accused of collecting intelligence and reportedly using Ukrainian military uniform as a disguise. (ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Ukrainian Claim of Russian Sniper Elimination: Russian special forces "Akhmat" claim the targeted elimination of a Ukrainian sniper attempting to cross the state border in the Sumy direction. (Kadyrov_95)
Ukrainian Claim of Russian Drone Destruction/Capture: Ukrainian forces claim to have "epically destroyed" two Russian "Supercam" reconnaissance drones and captured one. (STERNENKO)
Propaganda Video from Russian Battalion: Russian military blogger shares a promotional video for the "Maxim Krivonos Battalion," reportedly composed of former Ukrainian servicemen who have joined the Russian army. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Commentary on Russian Actions and Symbolism: Ukrainian sources utilize a video of a Russian breaking a vintage BMW with a rifle to comment on perceived Russian destructiveness and inability to create. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Russian Military Blogger Commentary on UAV Effectiveness: Russian military blogger discusses the increasing importance and effectiveness of drones in modern warfare, questioning the preparedness of military leadership. A collection is being organized for DJI Mavic 3 Classic drones for a specific Russian unit. (Сливочный каприз)
Ukrainian Awarding of "Hero of Ukraine": Ukraine highlights the awarding of the "Hero of Ukraine" title to Junior Lieutenant Vladyslav "Datsyk" Datsko of the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
Ukrainian Claim of Russian Sappers Incident: Ukrainian sources share a video claiming to show Russian sappers engaging in dangerous demining/mining activities, resulting in an explosion. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on the provided information and should not be considered exhaustive or definitive. Real-time military intelligence is constantly evolving, and independent verification of all claims is crucial. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report