Sitrep 2025-05-07 06:34:24

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 7, 2025, 06:33 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment remains characterized by intense ground combat across multiple axes, particularly the Pokrovsk, Lyman, and Novopavlivka directions. Fighting in the Kursk border region continues, with conflicting Russian reports of repelling a Ukrainian armored assault near Tetkino and Novy Put', claiming destruction of Ukrainian equipment including a tank and armored vehicles, while also reporting Ukrainian drone attacks causing civilian casualties in Glushkovsky and Sudzhansky districts. Simultaneously, there is widespread and ongoing Russian aerial activity across numerous Ukrainian oblasts, primarily utilizing "Shahed" drones, with new groups reported moving towards central and western Ukraine. A significant Russian aerial attack on Kyiv involved a ballistic missile (intercepted) and 28 drones, resulting in 2 civilian fatalities and 6 injuries (including 4 children), and damage to residential buildings and infrastructure. Ukrainian drone attacks are confirmed against Russian industrial facilities in Saransk and reportedly the "Splav" plant in Tula Oblast (MLRS manufacturer), and possibly the Kubinka military airfield in Moscow Oblast, leading to flight restrictions at Moscow airports and potential disruptions to civilian air travel. Humanitarian impacts continue, with civilian casualties reported in Kyiv and damage from drone attacks in Odesa and Zaporizhzhia. Information operations and diplomatic communications continue to be a factor, including competing narratives around military successes and the escalating conflict between India and Pakistan. Internal Russian security incidents and events unrelated to the direct conflict are also being reported, alongside potential disruptions to banking services in Moscow due to internet issues. A claimed Russian unilateral ceasefire for Victory Day (May 7-10) is contradicted by ongoing Russian offensive actions and a claimed massive Ukrainian strike repelled by Russian air defense in Bryansk Oblast.

New significant updates and analysis from the latest messages (past hour):

Escalation of India-Pakistan Conflict and Civilian Casualties: ASTRA reports, citing Reuters and the head of the Pakistani Armed Forces, that 26 Pakistani civilians have been killed and 46 injured as a result of Indian attacks. Indian police, in turn, report 10 people killed and 48 injured due to Pakistani shelling of Indian Kashmir. ASTRA also shares an image of a damaged mosque in Muzaffarabad, Pakistan-administered Kashmir, likely a result of military operations. TASS, citing the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, states that India's "Sindur" operation was an exercise of its right to prevent new terrorist attacks by Pakistani militants, claiming India had intelligence about planned attacks. Rybar reports on planned Indian civil defense exercises on May 7 in 259 districts, particularly near the borders with Pakistan and China, testing warning systems, government response, and population preparedness for blackouts, camouflage, and evacuation. Rybar questions if the exercises will still be conducted given the current escalation. This information indicates a significant and escalating conflict between India and Pakistan, separate from the war in Ukraine but contributing to global instability. The high reported civilian casualties on both sides are a major humanitarian concern. The Indian justification for their actions and the scheduled civil defense exercises highlight the preparedness and perceived threat levels in the region. (ASTRA, ASTRA, ТАСС, Рыбарь, Рыбарь, Рыбарь)
Renewed Ukrainian Ground Attempt in Kursk Oblast and Russian Claims: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares an image and claims a Ukrainian Armed Forces tank was burned by Russian soldiers while repelling a morning attack on Tetkino in Kursk Oblast. They state their paratroopers detected the advance of an armored group and engaged it. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video and claims a "daring" enemy tank near Novy Put' in Glushkovsky district was burned. Два майора provides more specific details, claiming that around 7:00, the enemy attempted an offensive in the direction of Novy Put' with 5 units of armored vehicles: an IMR, two M-113 APCs, a Bradley IFV, and a Kozak armored vehicle. These Russian sources continue to report on Ukrainian ground activity in the Kursk border region and claim successful repulsion of an armored assault with the destruction of a tank and other vehicles. The differing accounts of the composition of the Ukrainian force (tank and AFV vs. 5 armored vehicles) highlight the potential for reporting discrepancies. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора)
Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Russian Military-Industrial Complex and Infrastructure: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS provides a summary of drone attacks on Russia, claiming several military facilities were hit. They specifically mention a fire at the optical fiber plant in Saransk, a hit on the "Rostec" enterprise in Tula Oblast (which manufactures MLRS systems and ammunition), and an attack on the Kubinka military airfield in Moscow Oblast (where MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters are based). They also state that most airports near Moscow are closed due to the attacks. They share images and videos purportedly showing fires and smoke plumes from these attacks. This strongly indicates successful Ukrainian deep strikes against significant Russian military-industrial and aviation targets, impacting production of key weapon systems and potentially disrupting air force operations and civilian air travel around Moscow. The images of smoke provide visual confirmation of incidents at industrial sites. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Significant Russian Aerial Attack on Kyiv with Casualties and Damage: РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ, citing the Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA), report that from the beginning of the day, 1 ballistic target and 28 Russian drones were recorded in the airspace of Kyiv and the surrounding area. The intercepted ballistic missile fell in the Solomianskyi district, damaging non-residential infrastructure and injuring one person. 11 enemy UAVs were confirmed shot down in the airspace of the capital and its surroundings, 10 left the airspace, and 3 were lost to detection, with most drones aimed at the capital. Confirmed casualties are 2 dead and 6 injured, including 4 children. They also share photos and videos showing damaged residential buildings and emergency response efforts. This confirms a large-scale and impactful Russian aerial attack on Kyiv, utilizing both missiles and drones, resulting in tragic civilian casualties and significant damage to residential areas. The high number of drones and the use of a ballistic missile underscore the intensity of the attack. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Updated Russian Air Defense Claims Over Bryansk Oblast: AV БогомаZ, the Governor of Bryansk Oblast, claims that in response to Russia's declared ceasefire for Victory Day (May 7-10), the "Kyiv regime" attempted a massive strike on their region. He claims that over 140 aerial targets, including one cruise missile, were destroyed by air defense units (Ministry of Defense, Rosgvardiya, BARS-Bryansk) from yesterday evening through the night. He states all attacks were repelled and targets destroyed. This is a significant Russian claim of repelling a large-scale Ukrainian aerial attack, including a cruise missile. The context of the claimed ceasefire and the attribution of the attack to the "Kyiv regime" are part of the Russian information operation. (AV БогомаZ, AV БогомаZ, AV БогомаZ)
Updated Reports on Russian Attack on Zaporizhzhia: РБК-Україна reports that in Zaporizhzhia, as a result of shelling, 4 people were injured. They state houses and infrastructure, including critical facilities, were hit, leading to power outages. This confirms the impact of the Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia with casualties and damage to civilian and critical infrastructure. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Continued Intense Fighting on Donetsk Front with Claimed Russian Advances: WarGonzo provides a morning summary of the front, reporting continued fierce battles on the Donetsk front in the area of Bogatyr and in the direction of Otradnoye, where Ukraine is committing reserves. They also claim tactical successes for the Russian Armed Forces in the area of Kotlyarovka and Preobrazhenka. They state the Ministry of Defense officially reported the liberation of Lysovka, and that Novoelenovka was also liberated. They share maps illustrating the situation on the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy directions. This Russian military blogger report emphasizes ongoing intense fighting on the Donetsk front, claiming Russian tactical advances and the liberation of specific settlements. The commitment of Ukrainian reserves indicates the pressure they are facing in these areas. (WarGonzo, WarGonzo, WarGonzo, WarGonzo, WarGonzo, WarGonzo, WarGonzo)
Continued Ukrainian Drone Movement and Air Alert: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports on continued UAV movement. They report drones in Kyiv Oblast heading towards Bila Tserkva, several groups through Pyriatyn towards Cherkasy Oblast, drones in Poltava Oblast past Lubny, and drones in Cherkasy Oblast in the Kaniv area. This indicates ongoing Russian drone activity and shifts in the direction of attack towards central and western Ukraine. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Disruptions to Air Travel in Russia Due to Attacks: ТАСС reports that temporary restrictions on the arrival and departure of aircraft have been introduced at Nizhnekamsk airport. This further indicates that the Ukrainian drone attacks are impacting air travel within Russia beyond the immediate Moscow area. (ТАСС)
Potential Banking Service Disruptions in Moscow: TASS reports that Sberbank has warned customers about difficulties accessing bank applications due to possible disruptions in mobile internet in Moscow and Moscow Oblast. This suggests potential disruption to financial services in the Russian capital region, possibly linked to the reported attacks or security measures. (ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС)
Commemoration of Fallen Ukrainian Servicemembers and Prisoner Exchanges: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video related to prisoner exchanges, showing relatives of missing soldiers holding photos and hoping for information. This highlights the human aspect of the conflict and the ongoing efforts related to prisoner exchanges. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦)
Ukrainian Fundraising for FPV Drones: STERNENKO is calling for donations to support Ukrainian soldiers with FPV drones to "avenge Russian attacks." This underscores the continued importance of FPV drones and reliance on public support for acquiring them. (STERNENKO)
Russian Military Blogger Propaganda and Morale: «Зона СВО» shares a photo with a motivational message for Russian soldiers. This is an example of ongoing propaganda efforts aimed at boosting morale among Russian forces. («Зона СВО», «Зона СВО», «Зона СВО»)
Russian Legislative Activity: TASS reports that the State Duma will consider complaints about unilateral changes by banks to service conditions, with Volodin noting that banks cannot unilaterally worsen terms under federal law. This relates to internal Russian legal and economic matters, possibly influenced by the broader economic context of the conflict. (ТАСС, ТАСС)
Ukrainian Political and Religious Event: РБК-Україна reports on the start of a conclave in the Vatican to elect a new Pope, noting the presence of a Ukrainian Cardinal and the possibility of a Ukrainian being elected, along with a discussion of whether Ukraine's position will be heard. This relates to Ukrainian engagement on the international religious and political stage. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast: Subjected to a significant Russian ballistic missile and multi-phased drone attack (28 UAVs). Successful interception of a ballistic missile with debris impact in Solomianskyi district (1 injured). 11 drones shot down in Kyiv/surroundings, 10 left airspace, 3 lost. Significant damage to civilian infrastructure in Dniprovskyi, Sviatoshynskyi, and Shevchenkivskyi districts, including multi-story building fires and partial destruction. Confirmed casualties in Kyiv: 2 dead, 6 injured (4 children). Drone movement reported in the Myronivka/Bohuslav area and from southern Kyiv Oblast towards Vinnytsia Oblast (previous). New reports of drones heading towards Bila Tserkva. (КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Kursk Oblast (Russia): Renewed Ukrainian ground offensive towards Tetkino and Novy Put' reported by Russian sources, claiming a Ukrainian armored assault with a tank, IMR, M-113s, Bradley, and Kozak. Russian sources claim the attack was repelled with the destruction of a Ukrainian tank and other armored vehicles. Ukrainian drone attacks reported causing civilian casualties in Glushkovsky and Sudzhansky districts. Evacuation of Glushkovo village is underway (previous). Russian General Staff reports repelling 11 enemy attacks with significant shelling and aviation activity (previous). (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора, ТАСС)
Saransk (Mordovia, Russia): Targeted by Ukrainian drone attacks, reportedly striking the optical fiber plant, resulting in a fire. (STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Tula Oblast (Russia): Reportedly targeted by Ukrainian drone attack on the "Splav" plant ("Rostec" enterprise manufacturing MLRS systems and ammunition). Verification of impact on the production building is ongoing (previous). (STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Moscow Oblast (Russia): Reportedly targeted by Ukrainian drone attack on the Kubinka military airfield. Airports near Moscow are closed due to attacks. Sberbank warns of potential mobile internet disruptions. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Subjected to a massive Russian UAV attack between 21:55 and 22:20 on May 6th, resulting in 4 injuries. Damage to a destroyed private house, 7 multi-story buildings, 14 private houses, and infrastructure (including critical) reported (previous). Russian shelling resulted in 4 injuries, hitting houses and critical infrastructure, causing power outages. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Donetsk Oblast: Ukrainian General Staff reports 171 total combat engagements across all fronts in the past day (previous). Russian military bloggers report continued fierce battles on the Donetsk front in the area of Bogatyr and Otradnoye, with Ukraine committing reserves. Russian bloggers claim tactical successes near Kotlyarovka and Preobrazhenka, and liberation of Lysovka and Novoelenovka. Ukrainian General Staff reports significant enemy activity on the Pokrovsk, Novopavlivsk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, and Lyman directions in the past day (previous). (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Рыбарь, Рыбарь, WarGonzo, WarGonzo, WarGonzo, WarGonzo, WarGonzo, WarGonzo, WarGonzo)
Novopavlivka Direction: Reported intensified enemy assaults, with Russian forces moving in large groups (previous). Ukrainian drone operators and infantry are actively engaged in defense, inflicting losses (previous). A bridge over the Solona River was reportedly destroyed by Russian KABs (previous). (Президентська бригада ЗСУ, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦)
Bryansk Oblast (Russia): Russian Governor claims repelling a massive Ukrainian strike with over 140 aerial targets destroyed, including a cruise missile, from yesterday evening through the night. (AV БогомаZ, AV БогомаZ, AV БогомаZ)
Cherkasy Oblast: Several groups of drones reported past Drabiv (previous). Five drones at the intersection with Kyiv Oblast moving southwest (previous). New reports of several groups through Pyriatyn towards Cherkasy Oblast and drones in the Kaniv area. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Zhytomyr Oblast: Drone reported towards Zviahel (previous). One drone reportedly towards/through Zviahel (previous). (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Николаевский Ванёк)
Sumy Oblast: New groups of drones from Sumy Oblast past Romny heading to Chernihiv Oblast (previous). Twelve drones from Sumy Oblast heading towards/through Pryluky (previous). Ukrainian drone attacks reported causing civilian casualties in Sudzhansky district of Kursk Oblast, bordering Sumy Oblast. Renewed Ukrainian ground offensive attempt in the border region. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Николаевский Ванёк, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора)
Chernihiv Oblast: New groups of drones from Sumy Oblast past Romny heading to Chernihiv Oblast (previous). One drone from Chernihiv Oblast flying towards Brovary (previous). (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Николаевский Ванёк)
Poltava Oblast: Six drones in the area of Pryluky heading towards Cherkasy Oblast (previous). Twelve drones from Sumy Oblast heading towards/through Pryluky (previous). New reports of drones past Lubny. (Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Vinnytsia Oblast: Several groups of UAVs from southern Kyiv Oblast heading towards Vinnytsia Oblast (previous). (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Odesa Oblast: Subject to ongoing Russian drone attacks (previous). Reported drone hit on a private house (previous). Visual evidence of powerful explosions and fires (previous). (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Alex Parker Returns)
Nizhnekamsk (Tatarstan, Russia): Temporary restrictions on air travel introduced at the airport. (ТАСС)
India-Pakistan Border: Escalation of conflict with reported civilian casualties (26 Pakistani, 10 Indian). Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs claims "Sindur" operation was to prevent terrorist attacks. Planned Indian civil defense exercises on May 7 near borders. Damaged mosque in Muzaffarabad reported. (ASTRA, ASTRA, ТАСС, Рыбарь, Рыбарь, Рыбарь)
Lyman Direction: Russian military blogger WarGonzo reports "decisive battles," claiming Russian advances and expansion of a bridgehead on the right bank of the Zherebets River, and reaching Torske (previous). Ukrainian General Staff reports 21 enemy attacks attempting to advance in the past day (previous). (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Рыбарь, Рыбарь)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Intensified and large-scale Russian drone attack on Kyiv (28 UAVs), with 11 shot down in Kyiv/surroundings. Massive Russian UAV attack on Zaporizhzhia (May 6th) resulting in 4 injuries and extensive damage. Continued Russian drone movement reported across central and western Ukrainian oblasts (Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Cherkasy, Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Vinnytsia). Ukrainian drone attacks confirmed targeting industrial facilities in Saransk and reportedly the "Splav" plant in Tula Oblast, and possibly the Kubinka military airfield in Moscow Oblast. Ukrainian drone attacks reported causing civilian casualties in Kursk Oblast (Glushkovsky and Sudzhansky districts). Russian authorities claim three Ukrainian UAVs were shot down on the approach to Yaroslavl (previous). Russian military bloggers claim successful FPV drone and Lancet strikes destroyed a Ukrainian tank near Novy Put' in Kursk Oblast. Russian forces used 3267 kamikaze drones and 145 operational-tactical UAVs were destroyed in the past day (May 6th) according to Ukrainian General Staff (previous). Russian Ministry of Defense claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over 11 regions overnight (May 5th/6th) (previous). Russian Ministry of Defense shares video claiming to show a "Geran-2" UAV strike on Ukrainian forces on the Donetsk direction (May 6th) (previous). Russian military blogger shares video purportedly depicting a drone engagement resulting in casualties (previous). Russian military expert claims Ukrainian elite drone regiment deployed to Bilohorivka in Luhansk (previous). Russian Governor of Bryansk claims over 140 aerial targets destroyed (including drones) from yesterday evening through the night. Temporary restrictions on air travel introduced at Nizhnekamsk airport due to attacks. Ukrainian fundraising for FPV drones is ongoing. (КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Николаевский Ванёк, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ТАСС, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, ТАСС, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, AV БогомаZ, AV БогомаZ, AV БогомаZ, ТАСС, STERNENKO)
Ballistic Missile Activity: One Russian ballistic target was successfully intercepted over Kyiv with debris impact in Solomianskyi district (1 injured). (КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ))
Cruise Missile Activity: Russian Governor of Bryansk claims one cruise missile was among the over 140 aerial targets destroyed from yesterday evening through the night. (AV БогомаZ, AV БогомаZ, AV БогомаZ)
Aviation Activity: Russian forces conducted 96 air strikes and 12 aviation strikes on the Kursk direction in the past day (May 6th) according to Ukrainian General Staff (previous). Russian forces dropped 187 guided aerial bombs on Ukraine and 27 on Kursk Oblast in the past day (May 6th) according to Ukrainian General Staff (previous). Russian forces conducted air strikes on numerous settlements in Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts in the past day (May 6th) according to Ukrainian General Staff (previous). Ukrainian drone attack reportedly targeted the Kubinka military airfield in Moscow Oblast, where fighters are based. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Russian forces conducted over 6400 shellings, including 109 from MLRS, in the past day (May 6th) according to Ukrainian General Staff (previous). Russian forces conducted 336 artillery shellings, including 14 from MLRS, on the Kursk direction in the past day (May 6th) according to Ukrainian General Staff (previous). Russian shelling in Zaporizhzhia resulted in 4 injuries. Ukrainian drone attack reportedly targeted the "Splav" plant in Tula Oblast, which manufactures MLRS systems and ammunition. Ukrainian General Staff reports 71 artillery systems and 1 MLRS destroyed in the past day (May 6th) (previous). (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Naval Activity: No new specific naval engagements reported. (Previous reporting)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Brazil-Russia Relations: President of Brazil traveling to Russia for Victory Day celebrations (previous).
India-Pakistan Relations: Significant escalation on the border with reported civilian casualties on both sides (26 Pakistani, 10 Indian). Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs justifies their actions as preventing terrorist attacks. Planned Indian civil defense exercises near borders on May 7. Damaged mosque in Muzaffarabad reported. (ASTRA, ASTRA, ТАСС, Рыбарь, Рыбарь, Рыбарь)
Russia-Africa Relations: President of the Republic of the Congo visiting Russia for Victory Day; "Immortal Regiment" action in Congo (previous).
Russian Narrative on Victory Day: SVR framing European participation in Kyiv's May 9th commemoration as revanchist (previous). Russian Governor of Bryansk claims "Kyiv regime" attempted massive strike during Russia's unilaterally declared ceasefire for Victory Day. (AV БогомаZ, AV БогомаZ, AV БогомаZ)
Impact on Russian Air Travel: "Aeroflot" announcing possible flight cancellations/merging due to airport restrictions (previous). Temporary restrictions on air travel introduced at Nizhnekamsk airport. Airports near Moscow are closed due to drone attacks. (ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС)
Ukrainian Engagement with Vatican: Conclave in the Vatican to elect a new Pope, with a Ukrainian Cardinal present and discussion of Ukraine's position being heard. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Russian Legislative Activity: State Duma to consider complaints about unilateral changes by banks to service conditions. (ТАСС, ТАСС)

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security Incident: Shooting attack on traffic police in Makhachkala, Dagestan, resulting in casualties (previous). Reported action by a Dagestani security officer who killed a Wahhabi (previous).
Impact of Ukrainian Attacks: Ukrainian drone attacks on industrial facilities in Saransk and reportedly in Tula Oblast and Kubinka military airfield in Moscow Oblast. Ukrainian drone attacks causing civilian casualties in Kursk Oblast (Glushkovsky and Sudzhansky districts). Russian authorities claim three Ukrainian UAVs were shot down near Yaroslavl (previous). Disruptions to civilian air travel due to airport restrictions in Moscow and Nizhnekamsk. Sberbank warns of potential mobile internet disruptions in Moscow and Moscow Oblast. Russian Governor of Bryansk claims repelling a massive Ukrainian strike with over 140 aerial targets destroyed. (STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, STERNENKO, КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, AV БогомаZ, AV БогомаZ, AV БогомаZ)
Infrastructure Issues: Fire at the "Neryungrinskaya" enrichment plant in Yakutia with 4 injured (preliminary cause methane ignition) (previous). Gas explosion in a residential building in Bulnash, Sverdlovsk Oblast, with 1 injured (previous). Sberbank warns of potential mobile internet disruptions in Moscow and Moscow Oblast. (ТАСС, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС)
Military Fundraising: Colonelcassad is fundraising for drones for a special forces unit (previous). (Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Political/Social Events: Detention of Telegram channel editor Pavel Gnilorybov for disobedience to police (previous). Report on a student festival in Chechnya (previous). Russian State Duma to consider complaints about unilateral changes by banks. (ТАСС, Kadyrov_95, Kadyrov_95, ТАСС, ТАСС)

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Humanitarian Situation: Increased civilian casualties (2 dead, 6 injured, including 4 children) and significant damage to residential buildings and infrastructure in Kyiv due to Russian attacks. 4 injuries and damage to residential buildings and critical infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia due to Russian shelling. Fire at Barabashovo market in Kharkiv after a Russian drone attack (previous). Civilian casualties in Kursk Oblast due to Ukrainian FPV drone attacks (previous). Reported injury in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast due to a morning strike (previous). Gas explosion in Sverdlovsk Oblast with 1 injured (previous). Reported civilian casualties (26 Pakistani, 10 Indian) and damaged mosque in Muzaffarabad in the escalating India-Pakistan conflict. Ukrainian drone attacks reported causing civilian casualties in Kursk Oblast (Glushkovsky and Sudzhansky districts). (КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ТАСС, ASTRA, ASTRA, ТАСС)
Prisoner Exchanges: Video related to prisoner exchanges shows relatives of missing soldiers seeking information. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦)

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Russia: Continuing large-scale drone attacks, utilizing ballistic missiles and reportedly cruise missiles against urban centers. Maintaining intense ground pressure on multiple axes, particularly Pokrovsk, Lyman, and Novopavlivka. Conducting offensive actions in Kursk Oblast. Employing aviation, guided aerial bombs (KABs), MLRS, and artillery extensively. Claiming destruction of Ukrainian equipment with drones and other means. Experiencing significant estimated daily losses in personnel, artillery, and drones (previous). Leveraging military bloggers for reporting and fundraising. Utilizing historical narratives for information operations, including a claimed unilateral ceasefire contradicted by actions.
Ukraine: Conducting renewed ground offensive actions in Kursk Oblast, reportedly involving armor and armored vehicles. Utilizing drones for deep strikes into Russian territory targeting industrial and military facilities. Repelling numerous Russian ground assaults on key axes. Maintaining defenses against Russian aerial and missile attacks, with successful interceptions reported, including a ballistic missile over Kyiv and reportedly over 140 aerial targets in Bryansk Oblast. Reporting on estimated daily Russian losses (previous). Potentially deploying elite drone units to contested areas according to Russian claims (previous). Utilizing drones for counter-infiltration and in combat engagements. Continuing fundraising efforts for FPV drones.
India: Conducting military operations on the border with Pakistan, including reported airstrikes. Justifying actions as preventing terrorist attacks. Planning civil defense exercises near borders.
Pakistan: Engaged in conflict with India on the border, reporting civilian casualties from Indian attacks. Reporting on shelling of Indian Kashmir.
Rapid Support Forces (Sudan): Reportedly using kamikaze drones against Port Sudan (previous).
M23 Movement (DRC): Reportedly continuing attacks despite agreements (previous).

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The renewed Ukrainian ground offensive in Kursk Oblast, involving armored vehicles, continues to be a notable development. Russian claims of repelling the assault and destroying Ukrainian equipment are aimed at demonstrating defensive success and deterring further attempts. Ukrainian persistence in this area, despite previous claimed repulsions, suggests a strategic objective beyond immediate territorial gain, potentially aimed at diverting Russian resources from other fronts or creating a new point of pressure. The reported Ukrainian drone attacks causing civilian casualties in Kursk Oblast also contribute to the pressure on Russia in this border region.
The large-scale Russian aerial attack on Kyiv with ballistic missiles and numerous drones, resulting in significant civilian casualties and damage across multiple districts, continues to underscore the Russian strategy of psychological warfare and targeting civilian infrastructure. The concentration of attacks on the capital aims to inflict maximum impact and potentially pressure the Ukrainian government and population. The tragic loss of life in residential buildings highlights the severe humanitarian consequences.
Ukraine's confirmed targeting of Russian industrial facilities in Saransk (optical fiber plant) and reportedly Tula Oblast ("Splav" MLRS plant) and possibly the Kubinka military airfield demonstrates a continued strategic effort to degrade Russia's war-making capability by striking key elements of their defense industrial base and aviation assets located deep within the country. This tactic aims to impose costs on Russia, disrupt their production of military equipment and components, and potentially impact their air force operations. The resulting closure of airports near Moscow and restrictions at Nizhnekamsk highlight the operational impact of these strikes within Russia.
The continued intense ground combat on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, and Novopavlivka directions, with Ukrainian forces repelling numerous Russian assaults and Russian military bloggers claiming tactical advances and liberation of settlements, indicates that Russia views these axes as critical for achieving strategic objectives in eastern Ukraine. The ability of Ukrainian forces to hold these lines despite sustained pressure is strategically important for preventing further Russian advances and protecting key urban centers. The commitment of Ukrainian reserves reported by Russian sources highlights the intensity of the fighting in these areas.
The escalating tensions and increased civilian casualties on the India-Pakistan border are a significant development in regional geopolitics, adding to the global instability picture. While separate from the conflict in Ukraine, it is a major humanitarian concern and highlights the potential for rapid escalation in other contested regions.
The claim by the Russian Governor of Bryansk Oblast of repelling a massive Ukrainian strike during a unilaterally declared Russian ceasefire is a clear example of the ongoing information war, aimed at portraying Ukraine as aggressive and disregarding humanitarian gestures while highlighting Russian defensive capabilities. This narrative is likely intended for both domestic and international audiences.
The disruptions to Russian civilian air travel due to airport restrictions, stemming from recent drone activity, highlight the increasing impact of the conflict on civilian life within Russia and could potentially have economic and social consequences. The warning about potential banking service disruptions in Moscow due to internet issues could be related to the attacks or security measures and indicates potential broader impacts on infrastructure and daily life in the capital.
The ongoing fundraising efforts for Russian military units (drones) and Ukrainian forces (FPV drones) underscore the continued need for resources to sustain operations on both sides and the importance of public support in acquiring essential equipment in modern warfare.
The political and religious development of a Ukrainian Cardinal participating in the Vatican conclave and the discussion of Ukraine's position being heard highlights Ukrainian efforts to maintain international visibility and garner support on various global platforms.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report