Sitrep 2025-05-06 12:01:58

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 6, 2025, 12:01 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment remains characterized by intense ground combat across multiple axes, including the Pokrovsk, Novopavlivsk, Toretsk (Konstantinovka), Lyman, and Krasnolimansk directions. Russian forces continue offensive operations, reporting claimed advances and heavy engagements. Ukrainian forces are actively defending and conducting counterattacks. Recent information confirms a fatal Russian guided aerial bomb (KAB) strike on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and ongoing Russian aerial and drone activity across Ukraine. Significant internal Russian issues regarding military welfare and information operations related to May 9th persist. New intelligence provides a more detailed picture of enemy activity and Ukrainian defensive efforts on various fronts.

New information from the past six hours introduces significant updates regarding a large-scale Russian drone and "simulator" attack, conflicting reports on the Kursk border situation, insights from a prominent Russian military figure on the strategic outlook, and details on NATO's focus on counter-drone technology based on lessons learned in Ukraine.

Massive Russian Drone and "Simulator" Attack: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a significant overnight attack by 136 Russian strike UAVs and "simulator" drones of other types launched from six different regions, including Russian territory and temporarily occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. As of 10:30, 54 strike UAVs (Shaheds and other types) have been confirmed shot down across eastern, northern, southern, and central Ukraine. Importantly, 70 "simulator" drones were "locationally lost" without negative consequences. One drone remains airborne with combat work ongoing. Kharkiv, Odesa, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts have suffered impacts from this attack. This is a major update indicating a very large-scale and complex Russian aerial attack utilizing a mix of strike drones and potentially deceptive or reconnaissance systems. The high number of "locationally lost" simulators suggests an attempt to overwhelm or confuse Ukrainian air defenses. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна)
Threat of Ballistic Missile Use: The Ukrainian Air Force has issued a warning about the threat of ballistic missile use from the northeastern direction. This suggests a potential incoming ballistic missile attack originating from Russian territory. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine]) A subsequent report indicates the threat has been cleared. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Updates on Kursk Border Situation and Russian Claims: A Russian military blogger ("Сливочный каприз") provides a summary of combat operations from May 2nd to 5th, claiming Russian forces have reached the state border south of Oleshnya and clarified positions in Gornal in Kursk Oblast. He also reports a failed Ukrainian attempt to break through towards Novy Put using a column of quad bikes, which was repelled by artillery. He claims Ukraine is concentrating forces near Otruby to cut off Tetkino from the north but highlights the risk of them being trapped. He notes that cargo columns are moving through Konotop towards Shostka, near the border with Russia's Rylsky and Khomutovsky districts in Kursk Oblast. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares a video showing the village of Goncharovka in Sudzhansky district, Kursk Oblast, which he claims was "liberated 1.5 months ago," showing significant destruction and burnt-out Western military vehicles, and reporting that Russian investigative journalists are collecting testimony from remaining residents about alleged Ukrainian "crimes." This provides a Russian perspective on the fighting in Kursk Oblast, claiming gains and repelled Ukrainian attacks, while also focusing on the humanitarian impact and alleged Ukrainian actions in areas they claim to control or have recently taken. (Сливочный каприз, Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)
Intensified Fighting in Donetsk Oblast and Russian Claims of Advancement: Сливочный каприз provides a summary of combat operations from May 2nd to 5th across various fronts. He claims expanded Russian control zones near the village of Zapadnoe on the Kupyansk direction, new positions south of Makiyivka towards Novomykhailivka near Borova, and combat in the northern part of Torskoye near Krasny Lyman. On the Seversk direction, he claims Russian forces reached the central part of Grigorovka. Near Gorlovka, he claims Russian forces occupied new positions near the railway station of Dyleevka and reached the southern part of Staraya Nikolaevka, while noting a clarified Ukrainian control zone in Sherbinovka. On the eastern flank of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), he claims significantly increased Russian offensive actions, assault on the southern part of Staraya Poltavka, reaching the eastern part of Ulyanovka (Malinovka), and expanding the control zone in Mirolyubovka, with ongoing counter-battles on the Novoolenovka-Tarasovka line. On the southern flank of Krasnoarmeysk, he claims a Russian infantry unit reached Kotlyarovka. West of Kurakhovo, he claims Russian forces assaulted Bogatyr from the south and reached the Velikaya Novoselka-Bogatyr highway north of Razdolnoe. Near Velikaya Novoselka, he claims Russian forces resumed offensive actions west of the settlement and advanced in different areas along the Volnoye Pole-Rovnopol line. He also notes a clarified Ukrainian control zone near Kamensky. MoD Russia shares video claiming assault units of the 29th Combined Arms Army (Vostok Group of Forces) continue to push AFU troops out of strongholds in the South Donetsk direction and have liberated a number of fortified areas. These Russian reports highlight continued intense fighting and claimed advances on multiple axes in Donetsk Oblast, particularly on the Kupyansk, Borova, Krasny Lyman, Seversk, Gorlovka, Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), Kurakhovo, and Velikaya Novoselka directions. (Сливочный каприз, MoD Russia)
Prominent Russian Military Figure's Strategic Analysis and Pessimism: Igor Strelkov (Girkin) provides a lengthy analysis of the conflict from prison, expressing pessimism about Russia's strategic position and criticizing the leadership. He argues that Ukraine signing a deal with the US on rare-earth metals extraction has weakened Russia's negotiating position and ensures continued US military aid to Kyiv. He believes Western allies, particularly the UK and France, will send troops to support Ukraine, aiming to "exhaust" Russia and provoke internal collapse, primarily focusing on gaining superiority "in the air and at sea" in the Black Sea region, making Crimea vulnerable to amphibious operations potentially this summer or autumn. He anticipates a practical naval blockade of Russia, severely impacting budget revenues. He sees growing problems with the "non-fighting economy in a fighting country." He believes a "peaceful compromise" is impossible and that Russia needs to "change something" as victory with current forces is impossible, but the elite is unwilling to make necessary changes. He predicts the government will continue "imitating activity" and celebrating while avoiding crucial strategic decisions, but warns that Russia will soon be "hit especially hard and sensitively." This provides a critical internal Russian perspective, acknowledging significant challenges, predicting negative future developments, and expressing deep dissatisfaction with the current strategy and leadership. (Стрелков Игорь Иванович)
NATO Innovation Challenge Focused on Counter-Drone Technology: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Ukraine, in cooperation with NATO, is seeking technological solutions for countering fiber-optic guided drones and other drone threats through a NATO Innovation Challenge hackathon in Tallinn, Estonia on June 20th. The event aims to find systemic solutions for effective detection, countering, and destruction of drones, with key areas of development including radar, optical, acoustic, thermal, and hybrid detection systems, rapid and accurate tracking of small high-speed targets, and kinetic and non-kinetic defeat systems. The proposed solutions must detect drones at 500m, work in all conditions, weigh under 100kg, and cost under $100k. The winners will present their solutions to NATO experts. A previous hackathon focused on countering Russian KABs. This highlights international cooperation in developing counter-drone technology based on battlefield experience in Ukraine and the perceived need to address emerging drone threats. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
Russian Military Blogger's Perspective on Asymmetric Warfare and Economic Impact: Colonelcassad analyzes the impact of Houthi strikes on Ben Gurion airport in Israel, noting that the economic impact of disrupted air travel is more significant than the direct damage, similar to the effect of their naval blockade efforts in the Red Sea. He suggests that even infrequent attacks (e.g., once a week) can deter airlines and cause long-term economic and reputational damage. He sees this as an example of asymmetric warfare. While not directly related to the Ukraine conflict, this analysis offers a perspective on the strategic use of asymmetric tactics to achieve economic and political objectives. (Colonelcassad)
Information Operations - Victory Day and Historical Narratives: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны quotes the winner of the first round of presidential elections in Romania, George Simion, stating that helping Ukraine with weapons is "unprofitable for Europe" and that de-escalation and a ceasefire are the only way to resolve the conflict, expressing hope for Donald Trump's peace initiatives. This is an example of Russian information operations highlighting dissenting voices within Europe and promoting narratives aligned with their interests. ТАСС reports on a concert by "Turetsky Choir" and Soprano at the UN General Assembly Hall in New York for the 80th anniversary of Victory, which gathered hundreds of people. This is an example of Russian efforts to leverage historical narratives and cultural events for diplomatic and informational purposes on the international stage. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 quotes former US President Trump claiming the US won both World Wars but doesn't give itself credit, stating that victory in WWII was achieved "only thanks to us." This is being reported in the context of the conflict, potentially as part of information operations focusing on US historical narratives. Военкор Котенок reports on alleged Ukrainian strikes on a monument to fallen heroes in Brylivka, Kherson Oblast, in the lead-up to Victory Day, framing it as an act of "Ukro-Nazis" targeting symbols of the Great Patriotic War. This is a clear example of Russian information operations utilizing historical narratives and accusations of Nazism to portray Ukraine negatively.
Internal Russian Issues - "Russian Community" Incident: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares photos and videos related to an incident in Vsevolozhsk, linking it to "neo-Nazis from the Russian Federation" who are "inventing alibis to avoid going to the front" and are "venting on migrants." The accompanying text mentions a break-in by the "Russian Community" on May 3rd, resulting in fatalities and injuries, and links it to actions "on behalf of the apartment owner to 'deal with a drug den.'" This highlights potential internal security issues, the activities of ultraright groups, and their alleged connections to violence and targeting of minorities, potentially as a way to avoid military service. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Detention in Crimea for Calls to Destroy Crimean Bridge: Два майора shares a video from the FSB reporting the detention of a 52-year-old unemployed resident of Sovetsky village in Crimea for publicly calling for the destruction of the Crimean bridge on pro-Ukrainian Telegram channels. He faces up to seven years in prison. This highlights Russian efforts to suppress perceived dissent and threats to critical infrastructure in occupied territories. (Два майора)
Ukrainian Recognition of Infantry Day: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS share a video message from the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, congratulating soldiers on Infantry Day and emphasizing their crucial role in holding positions and defending the nation. This is an example of Ukrainian official messaging aimed at recognizing and boosting the morale of ground forces. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Russian Information Operations and Domestic Messaging: Alex Parker Returns shares videos and photos with a caption implying destruction after Ukrainian actions and a message of "goodness will prevail," which appears to be propaganda framed as a consequence of Ukrainian activity. Новости Москвы shares a promotional message from Yandex Travel about a "stamp of tiredness" and the need for vacation, a non-military message focusing on domestic public sentiment. (Alex Parker Returns, Новости Москвы)
Russian Counter-Drone Efforts: Народная милиция ДНР shares a video claiming drone operators of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army are destroying Ukrainian drones in the air through professional maneuvers and piloting experience. This highlights ongoing Russian efforts to counter Ukrainian drone threats and showcases claimed successes. (Народная милиция ДНР)
Analysis of NATO's Adoption of Battlefield Experience: Рыбарь and Северяночка discuss a recent international exercise "Arctic Strike 2025" in Sweden focused on countering robotic threats, integrating lessons learned from modern conflicts. The exercise involved military, industry, and scientific representatives from Nordic and Baltic countries. The focus was on detecting and neutralizing UAVs with various systems, integrating robotic complexes into command systems, inter-nation compatibility of artillery through the ASKA standard, and accelerating the "Kill Chain." The exercise highlighted the importance of integrating reconnaissance and strike assets and rapidly identifying and neutralizing threats with minimal human intervention. This analysis indicates how Western countries are incorporating battlefield experience from Ukraine and elsewhere into their military development and training, particularly in the area of counter-drone and robotic warfare. (Рыбарь, Северяночка)
Turkish Military Exercise focused on Air Force Reserves: A large-scale military exercise, "YILDIRIM-2025/2," is taking place in Turkey from May 5th to June 4th, involving up to 2,000 personnel and 20 aircraft, with a focus on checking plans and practicing mobilization with Air Force reservists. This is the second stage of this exercise and is described as "very curious" in light of the situation south of Turkey. The exercise includes rapid restoration of runways, deployment of personnel and equipment reception points, and calling up citizens from the reserve. (Рыбарь)
Reported Incident with Russian Snipers on Kherson Direction: A report with video claims two Russian snipers were injured by a mine on the Kherson direction while moving on a mission. One reportedly stepped on an explosive device, and the other was injured when the mine detonated a second time while he was assisting his comrade. One of the snipers reportedly died while awaiting evacuation due to prolonged exposure to enemy drone and artillery fire preventing their rescue. (Басурин о главном) This highlights the dangers of mine warfare and the challenges of medical evacuation under fire.
Russian Tank Deliveries to Troops: Uralvagonzavod has reportedly sent batches of T-90M and T-72B3M tanks to the troops in the lead-up to Victory Day. The report emphasizes the factory's round-the-clock work and continuous improvement of tank designs based on feedback from tankers, including adding EW systems, FPV drone protection nets, and reinforced protection. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) This indicates ongoing Russian efforts to reinforce their armored capabilities and adapt tanks based on battlefield experience.
Defensive Actions in Kursk Region: Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled 18 Russian army assaults in the Kursk region, with Russian forces conducting 330 artillery bombardments (including 8 MLRS) and 12 air strikes with 27 KABs. (Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine) This confirms active fighting and significant Russian firepower being used in this border region.
Reported Russian Offensive Actions and Ukrainian Defense on Multiple Fronts: Ukrainian General Staff reports on combat activity across several axes:
- Kharkiv Axis: Clashes near Vovchansk. (Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine)
- Kupyansk Axis: Clashes near Zahryzove and towards Novoosynove and Hlushkivka, with Ukrainian forces repelling enemy assaults. (Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine)
- Lyman Axis: Clashes near Hrekivka, Novomykhaylivka, Nove, Kolodyazi, Myrne, Torske and towards Zelena Dolyna, with the enemy attacking 31 times. (Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine)
- Siversk Axis: No enemy offensive actions reported. (Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine)
- Kramatorsk Axis: Clashes near Chasiv Yar, Kurdumivka, and towards Bila Hora, with Ukrainian forces repelling four attacks. (Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine)
- Toretsk Axis: Clashes near Toretsk and Ozaryanivka, with the enemy conducting six attacks. (Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine)
- Pokrovsk Axis: Clashes near Sukha Balka, Stara Mykolayivka, Vodyane Druhe, Novotoretske, Shevchenko, Udachne, Uspenivka, Troyitske, Kotlyarivka, Bohdanivka, and Andriyivka, with Ukrainian defenders stopping 78 attacks. (Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine)
- Novopavlivka Axis: Clashes near Novopil, Novosilka, Pryvilne, Komar, and towards Odradne, with Ukrainian forces repelling 24 enemy assaults. (Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine)
- Orikhiv Axis: Clashes near Stepove, Mali Scherbaky, Kamyanske, and towards Novoandriyivka and Novodanylivka, with enemy forces conducting 14 attacks. (Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine)
- Huliaipole Axis: Clashes near Vysoke, with the enemy attacking seven times. (Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Updates on Khakiv Operational Zone: The operational situation in the Kharkiv zone remains difficult with no significant changes. Russian forces conducted 3 airstrikes with 7 KABs, used 114 kamikaze drones, and shelled Ukrainian positions 671 times. Four enemy attacks were reported in the Vovchansk area. Ukrainian forces claim to have eliminated 81 Russian personnel (36 irreversible losses) and destroyed or damaged 99 units of equipment, including artillery, vehicles, UAVs, EW systems, and special equipment. They also destroyed 79 shelters and an ammunition storage site. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦)
Denial of Russian Assault Preparations on Kherson Right Bank: The spokesperson for the Southern Defense Forces denies reports of Russian preparation for a large-scale assault on the right bank of the Kherson region, stating they see no signs of such preparations. Ukrainian intelligence reportedly controls all Russian watercraft in the area, estimating their total number (including those from Crimea) at no more than a hundred. They also state that Russia lacks the prepared personnel in the islands area for a 300-boat assault and has not moved the necessary artillery and other weapons forward for such an operation. They acknowledge ongoing Russian reconnaissance using boats and attempts to land small groups on islands, which are reportedly being destroyed or captured. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Political Developments in Germany: Friedrich Merz reportedly failed to secure the necessary absolute majority in the first round of voting for German Chancellor in the Bundestag, receiving 310 votes out of 316 needed. The coalition agreement is reported to support Ukraine's EU and NATO aspirations and provide financial and military aid, but does not mention the possibility of supplying Taurus missiles. (РБК-Україна, Военкор Котенок, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Moldovan Authorities Discouraging Victory Day Symbols: Moldovan authorities are reportedly attempting to deter the public from wearing forbidden symbols like the St. George ribbon and "Z" and "V" letters in the lead-up to Victory Day, with potential fines and community service for violations. They are also planning a "Day of Europe" event on the main square on May 9th. Russian sources portray this as an attempt to intimidate the population and erase historical memory, but claim multi-thousand strong marches in honor of Victory Day occurred across the country last year. (Два майора)
Charity Concert in Scotland for Ukraine and Gaza Victims: A poster for a charity concert in Edinburgh, Scotland, organized by the Rotary Club of Leith, is advertising a "Choirs Against Conflict" event featuring the Edinburgh Ukrainian Choir to raise funds for victims of conflict in Ukraine and Gaza. (Alex Parker Returns) This indicates continued international public support for those affected by both conflicts.
Russian Claims of Destroying Ukrainian Strongpoints and UAV Control Points in Sumy Oblast: A video claims that fighters of the "Anvar" detachment are destroying Ukrainian strongpoints in the Sorokino, Korenek, and Novovasilievka areas, and a Ukrainian UAV control point near Baranovka in Sumy Oblast. (Colonelcassad)
Confirmation of Massive Russian Drone Attack and Affected Areas: The Ukrainian General Staff provides confirmed details of the overnight Russian drone attack, stating 136 strike UAVs and drone imitators were launched from six regions, resulting in the downing of 54 strike UAVs and 70 drone imitators being locationally lost. Kharkiv, Odesa, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts were affected. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Internal Russian Issues - Military Welfare and Legal Action: A report highlights a case in Magnitogorsk where a prosecutor filed lawsuits on behalf of families of deceased servicemen who were not formally appointed to positions before their deaths, requiring the Ministry of Defense to pay back wages through court order. This is framed as a difficulty faced by families in receiving entitled payments from the state. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники)
Increased Wholesale Potato Prices in Russia: Wholesale potato prices in Russia reportedly reached a historical record at the beginning of May, with significant increases since the start of the year and compared to the previous year, attributed to a poor harvest in 2024. Retail prices also hit a record. (Север.Реалии) This highlights potential economic challenges within Russia.
Information Operation on Victory Day and Historical Narrative: A video message from Irina Volk of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs discusses the upcoming 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War and shares a personal family history related to the war. It emphasizes remembering and being proud of the victory. (Полиция Хабаровского края) This is a clear example of Russian state-sponsored information operations leveraging historical narratives for patriotic messaging.
Ukrainian Military Action on Novopavlivka Direction Showcased: A video from Оперативний ЗСУ, attributed to drone operators of the 3rd Motorized Battalion of the Separate Presidential Brigade, claims to be "prescribing medicine for pobedobesie" to Komsomol members on the Novopavlivka direction, visually suggesting drone strikes against Russian personnel. (Оперативний ЗСУ) This is a Ukrainian information operation piece highlighting military action and utilizing cultural references.
Russian Claim of Artillery Strike on Ukrainian Command Post in South Donetsk: The Russian Ministry of Defense shares a video claiming a 2S4 Tyulpan self-propelled artillery system of the "Vostok" Group of Forces neutralized a concealed Ukrainian command post near Bogatyr in the South Donetsk direction. (MoD Russia) This is a Russian claim of a successful strike against a high-value target on a key front.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Across Ukraine: Massive overnight Russian drone and "simulator" attack involving 136 UAVs launched from six regions. 54 strike UAVs shot down, 70 simulators locationally lost. Impacts reported in Kharkiv, Odesa, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Threat of ballistic missile use from the northeastern direction reported and subsequently cleared. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Kharkiv Oblast: Impacted by the overnight Russian drone attack. Ongoing intense combat in the Kharkiv operational zone, including 4 attacks near Vovchansk. Russian forces conducted 3 airstrikes with 7 KABs, used 114 kamikaze drones, and shelled 671 times. Ukrainian forces claim significant Russian personnel and equipment losses. Clashes near Zolochiv, Kozacha Lopan, Pidlyman. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Odesa Oblast: Impacted by the overnight Russian drone attack. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Impacted by the overnight Russian drone attack. Fatal Russian KAB strike in the Novopavlivka community, Synelnykove district. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, RBC-Ukraine)
Kursk Oblast (RU) / Sumy Oblast (Ukraine): Russian claims of reaching the state border south of Oleshnya and clarifying positions in Gornal. Failed Ukrainian attempt to break through towards Novy Put using quad bikes reportedly repelled. Claims of Ukrainian force concentration near Otruby to cut off Tetkino. Cargo columns reported moving through Konotop towards Shostka. Goncharovka village reportedly "liberated 1.5 months ago," showing significant destruction. Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled 18 Russian army assaults in the Kursk region, with Russian forces conducting 330 artillery bombardments and 12 air strikes with 27 KABs. Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian strongpoints and a UAV control point in Sumy Oblast areas of Sorokino, Korenek, Novovasilievka, and Baranovka. (Сливочный каприз, Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonelcassad) Clashes near Vorozhba, Iskryskivschyna, Myropillya, Bilopillya of Sumy region. (Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Donetsk Oblast (Kupyansk, Borova, Krasny Lyman, Seversk, Gorlovka, Dyleevka, Staraya Nikolaevka, Sherbinovka, Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk, Staraya Poltavka, Ulyanovka/Malinovka, Mirolyubovka, Novoolenovka, Tarasovka, Kotlyarovka, Kurakhovo, Bogatyr, Razdolnoe, Velikaya Novoselka, Volnoye Pole, Rovnopol, Kamensky, Chasiv Yar, Kurdumivka, Bila Hora, Toretsk, Ozaryanivka, Sukha Balka, Vodyane Druhe, Novotoretske, Shevchenko, Udachne, Uspenivka, Troyitske, Bohdanivka, Andriyivka, Novopil, Novosilka, Pryvilne, Komar, Odradne, Orikhiv, Stepove, Mali Scherbaky, Kamyanske, Novoandriyivka, Novodanylivka, Huliaipole, Vysoke): Continued intense ground fighting and Russian claims of expanded control zones near Zapadnoe (Kupyansk), new positions south of Makiyivka (Borova), combat in Torskoye (Krasny Lyman), reaching the center of Grigorovka (Seversk), new positions near Dyleevka and reaching Staraya Nikolaevka (Gorlovka), significantly increased offensive actions and claims of advances in Staraya Poltavka, Ulyanovka/Malinovka, and Mirolyubovka, reaching Kotlyarovka (Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk), assaulting Bogatyr and reaching the highway north of Razdolnoe (Kurakhovo), and resuming offensive actions near Velikaya Novoselka along the Volnoye Pole-Rovnopol line. Russian MoD claims liberation of fortified areas in the South Donetsk direction. Massive overnight Russian drone attack impacted Donetsk Oblast. Clashes near Zahryzove and towards Novoosynove and Hlushkivka (Kupyansk axis), with Ukrainian forces repelling assaults. Enemy attacking 31 times near Hrekivka, Novomykhaylivka, Nove, Kolodyazi, Myrne, Torske and towards Zelena Dolyna (Lyman axis). No enemy offensive actions reported near Siversk. Clashes near Chasiv Yar, Kurdumivka and towards Bila Hora (Kramatorsk axis), with Ukrainian forces repelling four attacks. Enemy conducting six attacks near Toretsk and Ozaryanivka (Toretsk axis). Ukrainian defenders stopping 78 attacks near Sukha Balka, Stara Mykolayivka, Vodyane Druhe, Novotoretske, Shevchenko, Udachne, Uspenivka, Troyitske, Kotlyarivka, Bohdanivka and Andriyivka (Pokrovsk axis). Ukrainian forces repelling 24 enemy assaults near Novopil, Novosilka, Pryvilne, Komar and towards Odradne (Novopavlivka axis). Enemy forces conducting 14 attacks near Stepove, Mali Scherbaky, Kamyanske and towards Novoandriyivka and Novodanylivka (Orikhiv axis). Enemy attacking seven times near Vysoke (Huliaipole axis). Russian claim of a 2S4 Tyulpan strike on a Ukrainian command post near Bogatyr in the South Donetsk direction. Clashes near Shevchenko Pershe, Niv Poltavka, Sukhyy Yar, Pokrovsk, Kotlyne, Udachne, Oleksandrohrad, Novopil, Zelene Pole. (Сливочный каприз, MoD Russia, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine, MoD Russia)
Kherson Oblast (Brylivka): Russian claims of a Ukrainian strike on a monument to fallen heroes in Brylivka. Reported incident with Russian snipers injured by a mine on the Kherson direction, with one fatality. (Военкор Котенок, Басурин о главном) Denial of Russian assault preparations on the Kherson right bank. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Crimea (Sovetsky village): Detention of a resident for publicly calling for the destruction of the Crimean bridge. (Два майора)
Vsevolozhsk, Leningrad Oblast (Russia): Incident involving a break-in by the "Russian Community" resulting in fatalities and injuries. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Tallinn (Estonia): Location of the upcoming NATO Innovation Challenge hackathon focused on counter-drone technology. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
New York (USA): Location of a concert by "Turetsky Choir" and Soprano for the 80th anniversary of Victory. (ТАСС)
Turkey: Hosting the "YILDIRIM-2025/2" military exercise from May 5th to June 4th, focusing on Air Force reservist mobilization. (Рыбарь)
Moldova: Authorities reportedly attempting to discourage the wearing of Victory Day symbols and planning a "Day of Europe" event on May 9th. (Два майора)
Scotland (Edinburgh): Location of a charity concert for victims of conflict in Ukraine and Gaza. (Alex Parker Returns)
Bryansk Oblast (RU), Voronezh Oblast (RU), Moscow Oblast (RU), Penza Oblast (RU), Kaluga Oblast (RU), Belgorod Oblast (RU), Lipetsk Oblast (RU), Samara Oblast (RU), Vladimir Oblast (RU), Kursk Oblast (RU), Rostov Oblast (RU): Russian MoD claims the destruction and interception of 105 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over these regions overnight. (Colonelcassad)
Magnitogorsk (RU): Location of a legal case where families of deceased servicemen sued the Ministry of Defense for back wages. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники)
Russia (General): Wholesale potato prices reportedly at a historical record high. (Север.Реалии)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Massive overnight Russian drone and "simulator" attack involving 136 UAVs launched from six regions. 54 strike UAVs shot down, 70 simulators locationally lost. Impacts reported in Kharkiv, Odesa, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Ukrainian Air Force reports one drone still airborne. Russian military blogger claims a failed Ukrainian attempt to break through near Novy Put using quad bikes. Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian drones in the air near Donetsk and in Sumy Oblast. NATO Innovation Challenge focused on counter-drone technology based on modern conflict experience. Russian MoD claims the destruction and interception of 105 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over 11 Russian regions overnight. Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian strongpoints and a UAV control point in Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv zone report Russian forces used 114 kamikaze drones. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Kotsnews, Народная милиция ДНР, Оперативний ЗСУ, Рыбарь, Северяночка, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Colonelcassad, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦)
Ballistic Missile Activity: Threat of ballistic missile use from the northeastern direction reported and subsequently cleared. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Naval Activity: Prominent Russian military figure predicts potential for a practical naval blockade of Russia and increased vulnerability of Crimea to amphibious operations due to Western support for Ukraine gaining superiority "at sea and over the sea" in the Black Sea. (Стрелков Игорь Иванович) Denial of Russian assault preparations on the Kherson right bank by the Southern Defense Forces. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian Air Force reports the successful downing of 54 strike UAVs and the handling of 70 simulator drones. Russian military blogger claims Russian air defense successfully repelled a Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow, shooting down 19 drones. Russian MoD claims the destruction and interception of 105 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over 11 Russian regions overnight. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Kotsnews, Colonelcassad) Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv zone claim the destruction or damage of 72 Russian UAVs and 2 EW systems. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦)
Russian Tactical Aviation: Clashes near Zolochiv, Kozacha Lopan, Pidlyman of Kharkiv region, Shevchenko Pershe, Niv Poltavka, Sukhyy Yar, Pokrovsk, Kotlyne, Udachne, Oleksandrohrad, Novopil, Zelene Pole of Donetsk region, Malynivka, Temyrivka, Zaliznychne, Mala Tokmachka, Stepove, Kamyanske of Zaporizhzhia region, Vorozhba, Iskryskivschyna, Myropillya, Bilopillya of Sumy region. (Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine) Russian forces in the Kharkiv zone conducted 3 airstrikes with 7 KABs. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Romanian Presidential Election: Winner of the first round, George Simion, expresses opposition to providing weapons to Ukraine and advocates for de-escalation and a ceasefire. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Старше Эдды)
NATO Cooperation and Technology Development: Ukraine is cooperating with NATO to seek technological solutions for countering drone threats through an Innovation Challenge hackathon. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
Information Operations: Russian information operations highlighting dissenting voices in Europe (Romanian presidential candidate), leveraging historical narratives (Victory Day concert in New York, alleged Ukrainian strike on monument, Russian state-sponsored historical messaging), promoting claimed military successes (repelling Ukrainian incursion in Kursk, advances in Donetsk, successful counter-drone operations, destruction of a Ukrainian command post), portraying Ukraine negatively (alleged "crimes" in Goncharovka, accusations of targeting monuments, framing Ukrainian leaders as "Ukro-Nazis"), and showcasing domestic achievements (Yandex Travel promotion, potato prices). Ukrainian official messaging recognizing Infantry Day, showcasing military action, and highlighting international public support. Reporting on former US President Trump's comments on historical narratives. Moldovan authorities reportedly discouraging the wearing of Victory Day symbols and planning a "Day of Europe" event. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Alex Parker Returns, Новости Москвы, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Два майора, Полиция Хабаровского края, Оперативний ЗСУ, Басурин о главном, MoD Russia)
Internal Russian Political Commentary: Igor Strelkov offers a critical analysis of Russia's strategic position, leadership, and predicts negative future developments. (Стрелков Игорь Иванович)
Counter-Terrorism/Security Measures: Detention in Crimea for calls to destroy the Crimean bridge. (Два майора)
US Political Commentary (Reported): Former US President Trump's comments on historical narratives are being reported. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Turkish Military Exercise: "YILDIRIM-2025/2" focusing on Air Force reservist mobilization. (Рыбарь)
German Political Developments: Friedrich Merz failed to secure a majority in the first round of voting for Chancellor. Coalition agreement supports Ukraine's EU/NATO aspirations and aid but not Taurus missiles. (РБК-Україна, Военкор Котенок, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Moldovan Political Actions: Discouraging Victory Day symbols and planning a "Day of Europe" event. (Два майора)
International Public Support: Charity concert in Scotland for Ukraine and Gaza victims. (Alex Parker Returns)

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Military Personnel Welfare and Recruitment: Igor Strelkov's analysis touches on perceived problems with the "non-fighting economy in a fighting country." Reported incident with Russian snipers on the Kherson direction, with challenges in medical evacuation. Uralvagonzavod sending new tanks to the troops, emphasizing continuous improvements and adaptations. Legal case where families of deceased servicemen sued the Ministry of Defense for back wages. (Стрелков Игорь Иванович, Басурин о главном, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники)
Internal Security and Ultraright Groups: Incident in Vsevolozhsk involving the "Russian Community" resulting in fatalities and injuries, linked by Ukrainian sources to avoidance of military service and targeting of migrants. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Military Development and Adaptation: Russian military blogger's analysis of NATO's focus on counter-drone technology based on lessons from Ukraine, suggesting a need for Russia to accelerate its own development. Presentation of claimed Russian successes in countering Ukrainian drones and adapting tank designs. (Рыбарь, Северяночка, Народная милиция ДНР, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Law Enforcement and Judicial Activity: Detention in Crimea for calls to destroy the Crimean bridge. Legal case where families of deceased servicemen sued the Ministry of Defense for back wages. (Два майора, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники)
Economic Situation: Wholesale potato prices reportedly at a historical record high. (Север.Реалии)
Government Messaging: Russian state-sponsored historical messaging related to Victory Day. (Полиция Хабаровского края)

Other Information:

Humanitarian Situation: Impacts from the overnight Russian drone attack reported in Kharkiv, Odesa, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Civilian casualties confirmed from a drone attack in Kherson (previous reports). Damage to apartments in Novorossiysk confirmed (previous reports). Reports of destruction in the village of Goncharovka, Kursk Oblast. Allegations of Ukrainian "crimes" in Goncharovka. Fatal Russian KAB strike in the Novopavlivka community, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Reported incident with Russian snipers on the Kherson direction, with one fatality and challenges in medical evacuation. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, previous reports, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, RBC-Ukraine, Басурин о главном, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Military Technology Development: NATO Innovation Challenge focused on developing counter-drone technology based on modern conflict experience. Russian claims of successful counter-drone operations and adaptations to tank designs. Analysis of NATO's adoption of battlefield experience in robotic warfare. (Оперативний ЗСУ, Народная милиция ДНР, Рыбарь, Северяночка, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Historical Narratives: Information operations surrounding Victory Day and differing interpretations of historical events. Alleged Ukrainian strike on a Victory Day monument. Russian state-sponsored historical messaging related to Victory Day. Moldovan authorities reportedly discouraging the wearing of Victory Day symbols and planning a "Day of Europe" event on May 9th. (ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Полиция Хабаровского края, Два майора)
Regional Conflicts: Russian military blogger's perspective on asymmetric warfare and economic impact, referencing Houthi strikes on Israel. (Colonelcassad)

Potential Future Developments

Continued High Probability of Russian Aerial and Drone Attacks: The massive scale of the overnight attack, including the use of simulators, suggests Russia will continue to employ large and complex aerial attacks to probe and overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. Expect further waves of drones and potentially missiles. The clearance of the ballistic missile threat does not negate the potential for future use.
Intensified Ground Combat in Donetsk and Kursk Oblasts: Russian claims of continued advances and repelled Ukrainian counterattacks in Donetsk Oblast, coupled with reports of failed Ukrainian incursions and force concentrations and significant Russian firepower being used in Kursk Oblast, indicate that these areas will remain focal points of intense ground fighting. The outcome of these localized battles could impact the overall strategic picture. The reported high number of Ukrainian defensive actions on various axes indicates significant pressure from Russian forces.
Escalation of Counter-Drone Efforts: Both Ukraine and Russia are highlighting their counter-drone efforts and technological developments. The NATO Innovation Challenge and Russian claims of successful drone interceptions suggest that the technological arms race in drone and counter-drone warfare will intensify. Expect further reports on new systems and tactics in this area. The adaptation of tanks with counter-drone measures also highlights the evolving nature of the conflict.
Continued Information Operations in the Lead-up to May 9th: With Victory Day approaching, expect a further increase in information operations from both sides, leveraging historical narratives, claiming military successes, and attempting to influence domestic and international perceptions. The focus on alleged war crimes, treatment of monuments, and interpretations of historical events will likely intensify. Moldovan authorities' actions regarding Victory Day symbols will likely be a point of focus in Russian propaganda.
Potential for Increased Scrutiny of Internal Russian Issues: The incident involving the "Russian Community" and Strelkov's critical analysis may bring further attention to internal security issues, the activities of ultraright groups, and perceived shortcomings in the Russian military and government, including issues of military welfare. High wholesale potato prices could also contribute to domestic discontent.
Continued Geopolitical Maneuvering: Statements from political figures in other countries, like Romania's presidential candidate and developments in German politics, highlight the ongoing geopolitical discussions and potential shifts in international support or perspectives on the conflict. Turkish military exercises could also have regional implications.
Continued Humanitarian Impact: The confirmed fatal KAB strike and the reported incident with snipers underscore the ongoing dangers and humanitarian cost of the conflict. Expect continued reports of civilian casualties and challenges in medical evacuation.
Focus on Military Logistics and Reinforcement: The reported delivery of new tanks to Russian troops indicates ongoing efforts to reinforce and replenish armored capabilities, which will be crucial for sustaining offensive operations.

Potential Indicators

Observable impacts of the overnight Russian drone and simulator attack, including confirmed damage and any analysis of the trajectories and types of drones used.
Further reports, visual evidence, and official statements regarding the progress of ground combat in Donetsk and Kursk Oblasts, particularly in the areas highlighted by Russian and Ukrainian claims (e.g., Kupyansk, Borova, Krasny Lyman, Seversk, Gorlovka, Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo, Velikaya Novoselka, Vovchansk, Lyman, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Huliaipole). Independent verification of claimed territorial changes and successful defensive actions.
Further reports and analysis on the situation along the Ukrainian-Russian border in Sumy and Kursk Oblasts, including any evidence of successful cross-border incursions, significant engagements, or changes in force disposition.
Any further information on the outcomes of the NATO Innovation Challenge and the development or deployment of new counter-drone technologies by either side.
Increased volume or specific themes of information operations from both sides, particularly those related to May 9th, alleged war crimes, or interpretations of historical events. The reaction to Moldovan authorities' actions will be an indicator.
Any further reports or investigations into the incident involving the "Russian Community" or other indicators of internal security issues in Russia. Reports on military welfare issues and legal cases could also emerge.
Further statements or actions from international political figures impacting the diplomatic landscape or perceptions of the conflict, including developments in German politics.
Observable changes in Russian naval and air activity in the Black Sea region, particularly any indications of efforts to gain air or naval superiority or preparations for amphibious operations.
Reports on the effectiveness of Russian counter-drone measures against Ukrainian UAVs, and the effectiveness of Ukrainian deep strikes.
Updates on wholesale and retail potato prices in Russia as an indicator of internal economic conditions.
Any further information regarding the Turkish military exercise and its potential implications.
Further reports on the humanitarian situation, including civilian casualties and challenges in medical support.
Reports on the continued delivery and deployment of new Russian tanks and other military equipment.

Operational Summary

The operational situation is characterized by intense ground combat across multiple fronts, with significant Russian offensive pressure in Donetsk and along the Ukrainian-Russian border in Kursk Oblast. This is coupled with persistent and large-scale Russian aerial attacks, including a massive overnight drone and simulator attack affecting multiple Ukrainian regions and a fatal KAB strike in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukraine is actively defending, reporting success in repelling numerous assaults on various axes and conducting limited deep strikes. Both sides are heavily engaged in information operations, particularly focused on the upcoming Victory Day and leveraging historical narratives. Internal Russian issues, including military welfare and legal challenges, are also being reported. Geopolitical developments, such as political events in Germany and Turkey's military exercises, add complexity to the broader strategic picture. The humanitarian impact of the conflict remains a critical concern. Technological adaptation, particularly in drone and counter-drone warfare, continues to be a key element of the conflict.

Situation Report