Sitrep 2025-05-06 06:01:47

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 6, 2025, 06:01 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment remains characterized by intense ground combat on multiple axes, persistent aerial and drone activity from both sides, and targeted deep strikes. A significant focus remains on the Ukrainian cross-border operation in Kursk Oblast, with conflicting reports on its progress and the nature of equipment being utilized. Intense ground engagements are reported on key axes, including the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions, with Ukrainian forces repelling a high number of attacks on these fronts according to Ukrainian General Staff data. Drone warfare remains a critical element, with Ukrainian forces demonstrating innovative counter-infiltration tactics. The information space is heavily contested, with both sides leveraging events for propaganda purposes, particularly ahead of May 9th. Diplomatic and political discussions continue, alongside reporting on internal issues and information operations by both sides. Discussions on international military aid, including potential Patriot systems and a joint defense line project by the Baltic states, persist. Civilian casualties due to Ukrainian drone attacks in Kursk Oblast have been confirmed.

New significant updates and analysis:

Increased Civilian Casualties in Kharkiv from Russian Drone Attack: The number of injured in Kharkiv as a result of the morning Russian drone attack has risen to 4 people, according to the Head of the Kharkiv Oblast State Administration. The market "Barabashovo" suffered significant damage, with 20 trading facilities completely destroyed and about 90 damaged, according to the State Emergency Service. The Head of the Kharkiv Oblast State Administration specified that 20 Shahed-type UAVs targeted four districts of the city, causing damage to private and multi-apartment buildings and parked cars. This underscores the severe and ongoing humanitarian impact of Russian aerial assaults on urban areas.
Reported Ukrainian Drone Attack and Casualty in Odesa Oblast: STERNENKO reports that a person was killed in Odesa Raion as a result of a Russian strike, and a number of civilian infrastructure objects, including private residential buildings, were damaged. This indicates continued Russian attacks on civilian areas outside of the main front lines.
Claims of Successful Russian Interception of Ukrainian Drones Across Multiple Regions: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have destroyed 105 Ukrainian UAVs overnight across 11 regions. A breakdown is provided by a Russian military blogger, indicating significant numbers intercepted over Bryansk (32), Voronezh (22), Moscow region (19), Penza (10), Kaluga (9), Belgorod (6), Lipetsk (2), Samara (2), Vladimir (1), Kursk (1), and Rostov (1) Oblasts. This indicates continued Ukrainian deep strike efforts and Russian efforts to counter them across a wide geographical area.
Reported Injury from Morning Strike in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: The Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration reports that a man was injured in the Ilaryonivska community of Synelnykove Raion due to a morning strike and has been hospitalized in serious condition. This highlights the continued risk of civilian casualties in areas away from the immediate front lines.
Details on Military Activity and Losses from Ukrainian General Staff: The Ukrainian General Staff provides a comprehensive operational update for the past day, reporting 200 combat engagements in total. They detail enemy fire activity, including one missile attack (two missiles), 80 airstrikes (175 guided aerial bombs on Ukraine, plus 27 on Kursk Oblast), over 6100 shellings (113 from MLRS), and the use of 3344 kamikaze drones. Ukrainian forces reportedly struck 24 areas of concentration of enemy personnel/equipment, two command posts, five missile/artillery systems, two air defense systems, and four other important objects. They provide specific details on repelled attacks across various directions: four in the Vovchansk area (Kharkiv), five in the Kupiansk direction (near Zagryzove and towards Novoosynove and Hlushkivka), 31 in the Lyman direction, four in the Kramatorsk direction (near Chasiv Yar, Kurdyumivka, and towards Bila Hora), six in the Toretsk direction (near Toretsk and Ozaryanivka), 78 in the Pokrovsk direction, 24 in the Novopavlivsk direction, seven in the Huliaipole direction (near Vysokoe), and 14 in the Orikhiv direction. On the Kursk direction, they report 18 attacks repelled, along with 330 artillery shellings (8 from MLRS), 12 aviation strikes, and 27 guided aerial bombs. They also report estimated cumulative Russian combat losses, including 1430 personnel in the past day, along with significant equipment losses (3 tanks, 5 armored personnel vehicles, 61 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 145 operational-tactical UAVs, 103 vehicles and fuel tanks, and 3 units of special equipment). This detailed reporting provides a clear picture of the intensity and scale of the conflict on multiple fronts and the reported effectiveness of Ukrainian defenses and strikes.
Russian Military Bloggers Report on Frontline Situation: Russian military bloggers are providing updated summaries of the front lines. WarGonzo reports no significant changes on the Zaporizhzhia front but ongoing battles in the southeastern part of Bohodyr on the Donetsk front, with Russian troops continuing the assault and Ukrainian forces attempting counterattacks. On the Chasov Yar direction, they report continued fighting in Chasiv Yar and on the flanks, with Russian forces pressuring Ukrainian defenses on several sectors. On the Sumy direction, they report that Ukrainian forces attempted another provocation on the state border near Tyotkino and Novy Put, which was prevented by Russian forces, and suggest these actions may have been reconnaissance in nature, expecting new provocations. This aligns with other reports of activity in these areas and provides a Russian perspective on the fighting and Ukrainian intentions.
Russian Claim of Destroyed Ukrainian Tank in Kursk Oblast: Two Mayors military blogger shares video claiming objective control of a destroyed Ukrainian tank near Novy Put in Glushkovsky district of Kursk Oblast by Russian FPV drones and Lancets. This provides a specific claim of successful Russian strikes on Ukrainian equipment in the border region.
Russian Claim of Expelling Ukrainian Forces near Makiyivka, LNR: A Russian military expert claims that Russian forces have dislodged Ukrainian units from their positions near Makiyivka, LNR, and, after crossing the Tekuch River, have consolidated on its western bank. This indicates a claimed Russian tactical gain in the Lyman direction.
Russian Claim of "Geran-2" UAV Strike on Donetsk Direction: The Russian Ministry of Defense shares a video claiming to show a "Geran-2" (Shahed) UAV strike on Ukrainian forces on the Donetsk direction. This highlights the continued use of these drones in combat operations and Russian efforts to showcase their effectiveness.
Russian Military Blogger Provides Details on Ukrainian Offensive Attempt in Kursk Oblast: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming that the Ukrainian offensive attempt on Tyotkino involved IMR (Infantry Mobility Vehicles) and quad bikes, which were met by Russian paratroopers and reconnaissance, resulting in the loss of up to 10 units of Ukrainian equipment. This provides specific details on the tactics and equipment allegedly used by Ukrainian forces in their cross-border operation and claimed Russian successes in countering it.
Reported Downing of Three UAVs Over Industrial Enterprises in Samara Oblast: The Governor of Samara Oblast reports that three UAVs were shot down over industrial enterprises with no casualties or damage. This indicates continued Ukrainian deep strike attempts targeting Russian industrial facilities.
Ukrainian 46th Separate Airmobile Podilska Brigade Congratulates Infantry on Infantry Day: The 46th Separate Airmobile Podilska Brigade congratulates infantry on Infantry Day, highlighting their courage and importance. This is a display of internal military support and recognition.
Fire at Barabashovo Market in Kharkiv After Drone Attack: RBC-Ukraine reports that the Barabashovo market in Kharkiv caught fire after a massive "Shahed" attack, and firefighters are working to extinguish it. The State Emergency Service reports that around 90 trading facilities were damaged and 20 burned at the market, affecting pavilions with children's toys, school supplies, and clothes. This provides confirmation and specific details of the damage caused by the drone attack on a civilian commercial area.
Gas Explosion in Residential Building in Sverdlovsk Oblast, Russia: Operational ZSU and TASS report that a gas explosion occurred in a residential building in Bulnash, Sverdlovsk Oblast, resulting in one person injured and hospitalized in serious condition, and the building was evacuated. This is a domestic incident within Russia, not directly related to the conflict.
High Court of London Allows Russia to Temporarily Not Execute Hague Arbitration Decision: TASS reports that the High Court of London has allowed Russia to temporarily not execute the decision of the Hague arbitration regarding the recovery of $207.8 million in favor of Ukrainian DTEK Krymenergo for the loss of energy assets in Crimea. This is a legal development with potential implications for financial aspects related to assets in Crimea.
Ukrainian Air Force Reports Continued Movement of Russian "Shahed" Drones: The Ukrainian Air Force reports continued movement of Russian "Shahed" drones across Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, and Kirovohrad Oblasts. This indicates ongoing Russian aerial activity and potential targeting of various regions.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Kursk Oblast (Russia): Continued Ukrainian attempt to break through the state border near Tyotkino and Novy Put from Sumy Oblast, reportedly utilizing a mine-clearing vehicle, a Stryker, and another armored vehicle, supported by drones. Bridge over the Seym River near Tyotkino reportedly destroyed and unsuitable for heavy equipment. Ukrainian infantry reportedly repelled from the railway station area in Tyotkino and pushed back across the border. Combat is ongoing in front of the border, with Russian aviation, artillery, and drones engaging, and Russian forces claiming to have prevented a breakthrough. Conflicting reports exist regarding whether Ukrainian forces successfully crossed the border. Civilian casualties confirmed due to Ukrainian FPV drone attack near Shchegolyok (2 killed, 3 injured) and an explosive device dropped near Zvannoye (1 killed). Ukrainian General Staff reports repelling 18 Russian attacks on the Kursk direction with 330 artillery shellings (8 from MLRS), 12 aviation strikes, and 27 guided aerial bombs in the past day. Russian military blogger claims Ukrainian offensive on Tyotkino involved IMR and quad bikes, met by Russian paratroopers and reconnaissance, resulting in the loss of up to 10 units of Ukrainian equipment. Two Mayors military blogger shares video claiming objective control of a destroyed Ukrainian tank near Novy Put in Glushkovsky district by FPV drones and Lancets. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Alex Parker Returns, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Два майора)
Makhachkala (Dagestan, Russia): Site of a shooting attack on traffic police by unknown assailants resulting in casualties. One attacker reportedly neutralized, other(s) at large. A 12-year-old girl also reportedly injured. "Plan Perekhvat" is in effect. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Leningrad Oblast (Russia): Incident in Vsevolozhsk involving individuals with "Russian Community" patches reportedly breaking into an apartment, leading to a fire and the death of an Armenian citizen and serious injury to a woman. The "Russian Community" denies involvement. (Север.Реалии)
Gaza Strip (Palestine/Israel): Israel has approved a plan for full control of the Gaza Strip and a long-term presence there, reportedly involving expanded operations and new mobilization. (РБК-Україна)
Tyotkino (Kursk Oblast, Russia): Continued fighting in the area of the state border, with Ukrainian attempts to break through reported. Bridge over the Seym River reportedly destroyed. Ukrainian infantry reportedly repelled from the railway station area. Russian military blogger reports that the Ukrainian offensive here involved IMR and quad bikes, met by Russian paratroopers and reconnaissance, resulting in the loss of up to 10 units of Ukrainian equipment. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Novy Put (Kursk Oblast, Russia): Continued fighting in the area of the state border, with Ukrainian attempts to break through reported. Two Mayors military blogger shares video claiming objective control of a destroyed Ukrainian tank near this location by FPV drones and Lancets. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Два майора)
Sumy Oblast: Reported origin of the Ukrainian attempt to break through into Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian Air Force reports a group of UAVs from Sumy Oblast heading to Poltava Oblast. Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy air strikes on Vorozhba, Iskriskivshchyna, Myropillia, and Bilopillia in Sumy Oblast in the past day. Russian military blogger reports that the Ukrainian offensive on Tyotkino from Sumy Oblast involved IMR and quad bikes, met by Russian paratroopers and reconnaissance, resulting in the loss of up to 10 units of Ukrainian equipment. Ukrainian Air Force reports continued movement of Russian "Shahed" drones across Sumy Oblast. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Adoption statistics for 2025 reported, highlighting efforts to place children in families. Reportedly, a man was injured in the Ilaryonivska community due to a morning strike and hospitalized in serious condition. Ukrainian Air Force reports continued movement of Russian "Shahed" drones across Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Kharkiv Oblast: Under a massive Russian drone attack, with a fire at the Barabashovo market. Number of injured in Kharkiv has risen to 4. Ukrainian General Staff reports four combat engagements in the Vovchansk area on the Kharkiv direction in the past day. Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy air strikes on Zolochiv, Kozacha Lopan, and Pidlyman in Kharkiv Oblast in the past day. Head of the Kharkiv Oblast State Administration reports 4 injured civilians and details on damaged buildings and the Barabashovo market fire. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА)
Donetsk Oblast: Russian military bloggers report ongoing battles in the southeastern part of Bohodyr on the Donetsk front, with Russian troops continuing the assault and Ukrainian forces attempting counterattacks. Ukrainian General Staff reports 78 enemy attacks on the Pokrovsk direction in the past day, stopped by Ukrainian defenders in the areas of Sukha Balka, Stara Mykolaivka, Vodyane Druhe, Novotoretske, Shevchenko, Udachne, Uspenivka, Troitske, Kotlyarivka, Bohdanivka, and Andriivka. Ukrainian General Staff reports 24 enemy assaults on the Novopavlivsk direction in the past day, repelled by Ukrainian forces in the areas of Novopil, Novosilka, Pryvilne, Komar, and towards Odragne. Ukrainian General Staff reports seven enemy attacks on the Huliaipole direction in the area of Vysokoe in the past day. Ukrainian General Staff reports 14 enemy attacks on the Orikhiv direction in the vicinity of Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Kamyanske, and towards Novoandriivka and Novodanylivka in the past day. Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy air strikes on Shevchenko Pershe, Nova Poltavka, Sukhyi Yar, Pokrovsk, Kotlyne, Udachne, Oleksandrogad, Novopil, and Zelene Pole in Donetsk Oblast in the past day. Ukrainian General Staff reports six enemy attacks on the Toretsk direction in the areas of Toretsk and Ozaryanivka in the past day. Ukrainian General Staff reports four enemy attacks on the Kramatorsk direction in the area of Chasiv Yar, Kurdyumivka, and in the direction of Bila Hora in the past day. Russian Ministry of Defense shares video claiming to show a "Geran-2" UAV strike on Ukrainian forces on the Donetsk direction. Russian military blogger WarGonzo reports ongoing battles in the southeastern part of Bohodyr on the Donetsk front and continued pressure on the defense of Chasiv Yar on the Chasov Yar direction. Colonelcassad shares video claiming destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit near Klinovoe with an optical fiber FPV drone. (WarGonzo, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ТАСС, Colonelcassad)
Sverdlovsk Oblast (Russia): A gas explosion occurred in a residential building in Bulnash, with one person injured and hospitalized in serious condition. The building was evacuated. (Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС)
Cherkasy Oblast: Ukrainian Air Force reports several groups of UAVs on Poltava Oblast heading to Cherkasy Oblast, and a UAV from Cherkasy Oblast heading to Kirovohrad Oblast. Ukrainian Air Force reports a UAV in the direction of Cherkasy city. Ukrainian Air Force reports continued movement of Russian "Shahed" drones across Cherkasy Oblast. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Poltava Oblast: Ukrainian Air Force reports a group of UAVs from Sumy Oblast heading to Poltava Oblast, and several groups of UAVs on Poltava Oblast heading to Cherkasy Oblast. Ukrainian Air Force reports continued movement of Russian "Shahed" drones across Poltava Oblast. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Kirovohrad Oblast: Ukrainian Air Force reports a UAV from Cherkasy Oblast heading to Kirovohrad Oblast. Ukrainian Air Force reports continued movement of Russian "Shahed" drones across Kirovohrad Oblast. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Moscow Region (Russia): Russian Ministry of Defense claims 19 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over the Moscow region overnight. Airport operations were temporarily suspended. Russian military blogger reports 19 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Moscow and Moscow Oblast. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, WarGonzo, Военкор Котенок)
Bryansk Oblast (Russia): Russian Ministry of Defense claims 32 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Bryansk Oblast overnight. Russian military blogger reports 32 Ukrainian drones shot down over Bryansk Oblast. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, AV БогомаZ, Военкор Котенок)
Voronezh Oblast (Russia): Russian Ministry of Defense claims 22 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Voronezh Oblast overnight. Russian military blogger reports 22 Ukrainian drones shot down over Voronezh Oblast. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, WarGonzo, Военкор Котенок)
Penza Oblast (Russia): Russian Ministry of Defense claims 10 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Penza Oblast overnight. Russian military blogger reports 10 Ukrainian drones shot down over Penza Oblast. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Военкор Котенок)
Kaluga Oblast (Russia): Russian Ministry of Defense claims 9 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Kaluga Oblast overnight. Russian military blogger reports 9 Ukrainian drones shot down over Kaluga Oblast. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Военкор Котенок)
Belgorod Oblast (Russia): Russian Ministry of Defense claims 6 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Belgorod Oblast overnight. Russian military blogger reports 6 Ukrainian drones shot down over Belgorod Oblast. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Военкор Котенок)
Lipetsk Oblast (Russia): Russian Ministry of Defense claims 2 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Lipetsk Oblast overnight. Russian military blogger reports 2 Ukrainian drones shot down over Lipetsk Oblast. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Военкор Котенок)
Samara Oblast (Russia): Russian Ministry of Defense claims 2 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Samara Oblast overnight. Governor reports three UAVs were shot down over industrial enterprises with no casualties or damage. Russian military blogger reports 2 Ukrainian drones shot down over Samara Oblast. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, Военкор Котенок)
Vladimir Oblast (Russia): Russian Ministry of Defense claims 1 Ukrainian UAV was shot down over Vladimir Oblast overnight. Russian military blogger reports 1 Ukrainian drone shot down over Vladimir Oblast. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Военкор Котенок)
Rostov Oblast (Russia): Russian Ministry of Defense claims 1 Ukrainian UAV was shot down over Rostov Oblast overnight. Russian military blogger reports 1 Ukrainian drone shot down over Rostov Oblast. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русней Весны, Военкор Котенок)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has concluded. Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy air strikes on Malynivka, Temerivka, Zaliznychne, Mala Tokmachka, Stepove, and Kamyanske in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in the past day. Ukrainian Air Force reports continued movement of Russian "Shahed" drones across Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Kupiansk Direction: Ukrainian General Staff reports five enemy attacks in the area of Zagryzovo and towards Novoosynove and Hlushkivka in the past day, repelled by Ukrainian forces. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Lyman Direction: Ukrainian General Staff reports 31 enemy attacks in the past day, attempting to advance near Hrekivka, Novomykhailivka, Nove, Kolodiazi, Myrne, Torske, and in the direction of Zelena Dolyna. Russian military expert reports Russian forces have dislodged Ukrainian units near Makiyivka, Luhansk People's Republic, and crossed the Tekuch River. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ТАСС)
Siversk Direction: Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy did not conduct offensive actions on the Siversk direction in the past day. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Prydniprovsk Direction: Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy did not conduct offensive actions on the Prydniprovsk direction in the past day. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Bulnash (Sverdlovsk Oblast, Russia): Site of a gas explosion in a residential building with one person injured. (Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС)
Barabashovo market (Kharkiv): Fire after a Russian drone attack, with around 90 trading facilities damaged and 20 burned. Trading pavilions with children's toys, school supplies, and clothes were affected. Reported number of injured in Kharkiv has risen to 4. RBC-Ukraine reports fire at the market after a massive "Shahed" attack and firefighters working to extinguish it. State Emergency Service reports around 90 trading facilities damaged and 20 burned. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, State Emergency Service of Ukraine)
Tyotkino (Kursk Oblast): Russian military blogger reports that the Ukrainian offensive here involved IMR and quad bikes, met by Russian paratroopers and reconnaissance, resulting in the loss of up to 10 units of Ukrainian equipment. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Ilaryonivska community (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Reportedly, a man was injured due to a morning strike and hospitalized in serious condition. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА))
Odesa Raion (Odesa Oblast): STERNENKO reports a person killed and civilian infrastructure damaged as a result of a Russian strike. (STERNENKO)
Klinovoe (Donetsk People's Republic): Colonelcassad shares video claiming destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit with an optical fiber FPV drone. (Colonelcassad)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Russian Ministry of Defense claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over 11 regions overnight, including 32 over Bryansk, 22 over Voronezh, 19 over Moscow region, 10 over Penza, 9 over Kaluga, 6 over Belgorod, 2 over Lipetsk, 2 over Samara, 1 over Vladimir, 1 over Kursk, and 1 over Rostov Oblast. Ukrainian forces are reportedly using a large number of drones to support their breakthrough attempt in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian drone operators successfully neutralized a Russian "diver" attempting infiltration. Civilian casualties confirmed in Kursk Oblast due to Ukrainian FPV drone attacks. Ukrainian Air Force reports continued movement of Russian "Shahed" drones across Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, and Kirovohrad Oblasts, including a UAV in the direction of Cherkasy city. Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy used 3344 kamikaze drones and 145 operational-tactical UAVs were destroyed in the past day. Fire at Barabashovo market in Kharkiv is confirmed after a Russian drone attack. Russian Ministry of Defense shares video claiming to show a "Geran-2" UAV strike on Ukrainian forces on the Donetsk direction. Russian military blogger claims successful FPV drone and Lancet strikes destroyed a Ukrainian tank near Novy Put in Kursk Oblast. Governor of Samara Oblast reports three UAVs were shot down over industrial enterprises with no casualties or damage. Head of the Kharkiv Oblast State Administration reports 4 injured from 20 Shahed-type UAVs targeting Kharkiv. STERNENKO reports a person killed and civilian infrastructure damaged in Odesa Raion as a result of a Russian strike, including drones. WarGonzo reports Russian Ministry of Defense claims of 105 Ukrainian drones shot down overnight. Russian military blogger reports 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over 11 regions, providing a breakdown by region. Ukrainian Air Force reports continued movement of Russian "Shahed" drones across Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Colonelcassad shares video claiming destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit near Klinovoe with an optical fiber FPV drone. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, AV БогомаZ, WarGonzo, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, РБК-Україна, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, STERNENKO, Военкор Котенок, Colonelcassad)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy dropped 175 guided aerial bombs on Ukraine and 27 on Kursk Oblast in the past day, totaling 202 KABs. Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy air strikes with guided aerial bombs on Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts in the past day. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Missile Activity: Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy launched one missile attack using two missiles in the past day. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Naval Activity: The threat of unmanned boat attacks in Novorossiysk continues, with reports suggesting the use of BECs equipped with air defense systems offshore. High Court of London has allowed Russia to temporarily not execute the decision of the Hague arbitration regarding the recovery of $207.8 million in favor of Ukrainian DTEK Krymenergo for the loss of energy assets in Crimea. This is a legal development with potential implications for financial aspects related to assets in Crimea.
Russian Aviation: Russian aviation is reported to be engaging Ukrainian forces in the Kursk direction. Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy conducted 80 air strikes and 12 aviation strikes on the Kursk direction in the past day. Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy air strikes on Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts in the past day. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy conducted over 6100 shellings, including 113 from MLRS, in the past day. Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy conducted 330 artillery shellings, including 8 from MLRS, on the Kursk direction in the past day. Ukrainian General Staff reports 61 Russian artillery systems and one MLRS were destroyed in the past day. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Russian Narrative on Victory Day: The SVR of the Russian Federation is framing European countries' participation in Kyiv's May 9th commemoration as revanchist and cynical, linking them to the Hitler coalition. This is a clear information operation ahead of the commemoration. Two Mayors share a video with a sarcastic caption suggesting Estonians and Lithuanians will watch the May 9th parade in direct broadcast. This is a propaganda message related to the upcoming commemoration and perceived Western attitudes towards Russia. (ТАСС, Два майора)
Israel's Plans for Gaza: Israel has approved a plan for full control and long-term presence in the Gaza Strip. (РБК-Україна)
US Position on WWII: Donald Trump stated that the US won WWI and WWII. (РБК-Україна)
Peace Talks and Ceasefire Calls: President Macron of France and Prime Minister Starmer of Britain have again called on Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire. (РБК-Україна)
US Aid to Gaza: Donald Trump stated that the US will help the residents of Gaza get food and is discussing mechanisms to deliver aid bypassing Hamas. (РБК-Україна)
US Education Policy: TASS reports that the US Department of Education has informed Harvard University about the cessation of grant allocation due to the refusal to follow recommendations on changing its policy. This is a domestic US political/educational development. (ТАСС)

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security Incident: Shooting attack on traffic police in Makhachkala, Dagestan, resulting in casualties. This indicates a potential internal security issue or unrest in the region. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Incident Involving Nationalist Group: Reported incident in Vsevolozhsk, Leningrad Oblast, involving individuals with "Russian Community" patches allegedly breaking into an apartment, leading to a fire and fatalities. This highlights potential issues with nationalist groups within Russia. (Север.Реалии)
Drone Attacks in Russia: Russian Ministry of Defense claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over 11 regions overnight. Temporary airport restrictions were imposed in multiple Russian cities. Governor of Samara Oblast reports three UAVs were shot down over industrial enterprises. WarGonzo reports on the massive drone attack and claimed downing of 105 Ukrainian drones over 11 regions. Russian military blogger reports 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over 11 regions, providing a breakdown by region. Two Mayors military blogger shares video claiming objective control of a destroyed Ukrainian tank near Novy Put in Glushkovsky district by FPV drones and Lancets. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, AV БогомаZ, WarGonzo, ТАСС, Военкор Котенок)
Infrastructure Damage: A gas explosion occurred in a residential building in Bulnash, Sverdlovsk Oblast, resulting in one injury and evacuation. (Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС)
Legal Developments: High Court of London has allowed Russia to temporarily not execute the decision of the Hague arbitration regarding the recovery of $207.8 million in favor of Ukrainian DTEK Krymenergo for the loss of energy assets in Crimea. (ТАСС)
Fraudulent Airline Tickets: TASS reports that scammers are creating fake airline websites offering discounted tickets and tours to Russians, with the deception only revealed at the airport. This indicates an internal issue related to cybersecurity and fraud. (ТАСС)

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated):

Public Morale and Support for Military: Ukrainian 46th Separate Airmobile Podilska Brigade congratulates infantry on Infantry Day. Head of the Kryvyi Rih Defense Council congratulates infantry on Infantry Day, emphasizing their importance. (46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України, Олександр Вілкул)
Humanitarian Situation: Increased civilian casualties (4 injured) and widespread damage to residential and commercial infrastructure in Kharkiv due to the massive drone attack. Civilian casualties confirmed in Kursk Oblast due to Ukrainian FPV drone attacks (2 killed, 3 injured by drone near Shchegolyok; 1 killed by explosive device near Zvannoye). Reportedly, a man was injured in the Ilaryonivska community of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast due to a morning strike and hospitalized in serious condition. A gas explosion occurred in a residential building in Bulnash, Sverdlovsk Oblast, resulting in one injury and evacuation. Damage at the Barabashovo market in Kharkiv includes around 90 trading facilities damaged and 20 burned. Donald Trump stated that the US will help the residents of Gaza get food. Head of the Kharkiv Oblast State Administration reports 4 injured civilians and details on damaged buildings and the Barabashovo market fire. STERNENKO reports a person killed and civilian infrastructure damaged in Odesa Raion as a result of a Russian strike. Reported injury from morning strike in Ilaryonivska community, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, STERNENKO)
International Aid: Donald Trump stated that the US will help the residents of Gaza get food and is discussing mechanisms to deliver aid bypassing Hamas. (РБК-Україна)
Adoption in Ukraine: 43 children have been adopted in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in 2025, mostly by Ukrainian families. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА))

Other Information (Updated):

Analysis of Russian Intentions: ISW analysts reported that Russian occupying forces are preparing for a breakthrough in two areas of Donetsk Oblast. (РБК-Україна)
Counter-Infiltration Tactics: Ukrainian forces have successfully utilized drone operators to neutralize a Russian "diver" attempting infiltration, highlighting a specific counter-infiltration tactic. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Military Losses: Ukrainian General Staff reports estimated cumulative Russian combat losses from February 24, 2022, including 1430 personnel in the past day, 3 tanks, 5 armored personnel vehicles, 61 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 145 operational-tactical UAVs, 103 vehicles and fuel tanks, and 3 units of special equipment. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Russian Military Capabilities Showcase: Russian Ministry of Defense shares video claiming to show a "Geran-2" UAV strike on Ukrainian forces on the Donetsk direction. (ТАСС)
Russian Military Blogger Reporting: Russian military bloggers are providing updated summaries of the front lines on the Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Chasov Yar, and Sumy directions. (WarGonzo)
Russian Military Anniversaries: Commemoration of the 33rd anniversary of the Russian aerobatic team "Strizhi" (Swifts). (Басурин о главном)
Ukrainian Training: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a mini-film about the "Khartia" training course for recruits, highlighting their adaptation to the realities of the current war. This showcases efforts to prepare Ukrainian forces for combat. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)

Potential Future Developments

Continued High Intensity in Kursk Oblast with Unclear Outcome: The conflicting reports on the Ukrainian breakthrough attempt in Kursk Oblast, coupled with the reported destruction of the bridge and ongoing engagements, and now the claimed destruction of a Ukrainian tank and equipment by Russian forces, suggest that fighting in this area will remain intense. The success or failure of Ukrainian forces to establish or maintain a foothold across the border will be a critical development. Expect continued reports of equipment losses and civilian casualties in this border region. The differing accounts from Russian and Ukrainian sources will likely continue to fuel information operations. The Ukrainian General Staff reporting repelled Russian attacks on the Kursk direction indicates activity from both sides in this area. The Russian military blogger reporting on the nature of the Ukrainian equipment used provides insights into the tactics being employed.
Investigation and Potential Ramifications of the Makhachkala Shooting: The shooting attack on traffic police in Makhachkala warrants close monitoring. The identity of the attackers and their motives are currently unclear. Depending on the outcome of the investigation, this incident could be linked to internal security concerns, criminal activity, or potentially external influences, which could have broader implications for stability in the North Caucasus region and potentially beyond.
Continued Information Operations Around Victory Day: Russia will likely continue to utilize the upcoming May 9th commemoration for information operations, emphasizing historical narratives and portraying European countries supporting Ukraine in a negative light, as evidenced by the SVR's statements and the satirical video shared by Two Mayors. The commemoration of Russian military anniversaries also contributes to this.
Heightened Tensions and Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza: Israel's approved plan for full control of the Gaza Strip is likely to lead to further escalation of conflict in the region, a potential increase in humanitarian crisis due to expanded operations and displacement, and continued regional instability. While not directly related to Ukraine, this remains a significant global development. Donald Trump's statement about providing aid while bypassing Hamas indicates international efforts to address the humanitarian situation.
Further Scrutiny of Nationalist Groups in Russia: The incident in Leningrad Oblast involving the "Russian Community" could bring increased scrutiny on nationalist and paramilitary-style groups within Russia and their activities, particularly if their involvement is confirmed and linked to the violence.
Continued Ukrainian Counter-Infiltration Efforts: The reported neutralization of a Russian "diver" by Ukrainian drone operators suggests that Russia may be utilizing such tactics for reconnaissance or sabotage, and Ukraine is actively developing and employing countermeasures. Expect continued efforts by both sides in this domain.
Sustained Intense Ground Combat on Key Axes: The detailed reporting from the Ukrainian General Staff on the high number of combat engagements and attacks repelled on the Pokrovsk, Novopavlivsk, Lyman, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Huliaipole, and Orikhiv directions indicates that these areas will remain the focus of intense ground combat. Russian military bloggers also highlighting ongoing battles in Bohodyr and pressure on Chasiv Yar reinforces this. Expect continued Russian attempts to advance in these areas and strong Ukrainian defensive actions.
High Probability of Continued Russian Aerial and Drone Attacks: The massive number of claimed Ukrainian drone interceptions over Russia and the confirmed Russian drone attacks in Kharkiv and reported movements across numerous Ukrainian oblasts indicate a continued high tempo of aerial operations. The use of guided aerial bombs on frontline oblasts is also likely to continue. Expect further drone and missile attacks targeting various regions, with potential for civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. The fire at Barabashovo market highlights the continued impact on civilian areas. The reported casualty and damage in Odesa Raion also underscore this risk.
Continued Ukrainian Deep Strikes: The claimed downing of a large number of Ukrainian drones over Russia and the reported downing of UAVs over industrial enterprises in Samara Oblast suggests that Ukraine continues to conduct deep strike operations targeting multiple regions. Expect further such attempts, which could lead to continued disruptions in Russia.
Ongoing Humanitarian Impact: The confirmed civilian casualties and damage in Kharkiv and Kursk Oblasts, and the reported injury in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and now the casualty and damage in Odesa Raion, underscore the ongoing human cost of the conflict. Expect further reports of civilian impact as military operations continue. Efforts to facilitate child adoption in Ukraine highlight the long-term social consequences.
Legal and Economic Implications: The decision by the High Court of London regarding the Hague arbitration highlights the ongoing legal and economic repercussions of the conflict, particularly concerning assets in occupied territories. The report of fraudulent airline ticket sales also indicates potential economic vulnerabilities and criminal activity within Russia.
Continued Focus on Military Training and Adaptation: The mini-film about the "Khartia" training course suggests ongoing efforts to train and adapt Ukrainian forces to the specific conditions of the current conflict, which will likely be a continuing theme.

Potential Indicators

Independent verification or refutation of Ukrainian forces successfully crossing and holding ground across the border in Kursk Oblast. Any further visual evidence of the destruction of the bridge near Tyotkino and its impact on military movements. Further claims or evidence of destroyed equipment on either side in this area.
Further details from official Russian sources or independent media regarding the investigation into the shooting in Makhachkala, including the identities and motives of the attackers, and any subsequent security operations in Dagestan.
Further statements or actions from Russian officials or state media regarding European participation in Victory Day commemorations in Kyiv or their support for Ukraine, particularly around May 9th. Any significant attendance by foreign dignitaries at the May 9th parade in Moscow.
Reports from international organizations, humanitarian agencies, or media outlets on the humanitarian situation in Gaza, including the scale of displacement and access to aid, following Israel's approved plan. Any progress or challenges in implementing mechanisms to deliver aid bypassing Hamas.
Further investigations, official statements, or legal proceedings related to the incident in Vsevolozhsk, Leningrad Oblast, and the involvement of the "Russian Community" or other groups.
Further reports or visual evidence of further attempts by Russian forces to infiltrate Ukrainian positions using unconventional methods like divers, and any successful Ukrainian counter-infiltration operations utilizing drones or other means.
Changes in the reported number of combat engagements on the key axes (Pokrovsk, Novopavlivsk, Lyman, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Huliaipole, Orikhiv), indicating a shift in the intensity or focus of ground combat. Reports of claimed Russian advances, such as near Makiyivka, and independent verification of these claims.
Changes in the scale or geographical distribution of Russian aerial and drone attacks, including the use of guided aerial bombs. Further reports of civilian casualties and damage in targeted areas.
Reports of further Ukrainian deep strike operations targeting Russian territory, and the response of Russian air defenses, including reports of UAVs shot down over various regions.
Further reports of civilian casualties or damage to civilian infrastructure on either side of the front line or in border regions.
Any further legal decisions or developments related to frozen assets, reparations, or the legal status of occupied territories, including further information on the Hague arbitration decision. Reports of new types of fraud or cybercrime in Russia.
Further information or videos showcasing military training efforts by either side, including details on the skills being emphasized and the effectiveness of the training programs.

Operational Summary

The operational situation remains highly dynamic with intense ground combat ongoing, particularly on the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivsk directions where Ukrainian forces report repelling a high number of enemy attacks. The Ukrainian cross-border attempt in Kursk Oblast continues to be a focal point with conflicting reports and claimed destruction of Ukrainian equipment, while the Ukrainian General Staff also reports repelling Russian attacks in this area. Significant aerial and drone activity persists from both sides, with Russia claiming the downing of a large number of Ukrainian drones over multiple regions overnight and Ukraine confirming Russian drone attacks resulting in civilian casualties and damage in Kharkiv, including a fire at the Barabashovo market, and a casualty and damage in Odesa Raion. The use of guided aerial bombs on frontline oblasts is also likely to continue. An internal security incident in Makhachkala, Dagestan, involving a fatal shooting of police highlights potential internal challenges in Russia. Ukraine continues to demonstrate effective counter-infiltration tactics using drones. Geopolitical developments, including Israel's plan for Gaza and international calls for a ceasefire, continue in the background. Information operations are active, particularly around the upcoming Victory Day commemorations. The humanitarian impact is evident with reported civilian casualties and damage in affected areas. Legal proceedings related to assets in Crimea are also ongoing, along with reports of domestic issues like fraud in Russia. Military training efforts continue in Ukraine.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations.

Situation Report