Sitrep 2025-05-06 05:01:52

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 6, 2025, 05:01 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment continues to be dominated by intense Russian aerial attacks, particularly with "Shahed" drones, focusing heavily on Kharkiv and extending to other oblasts. The scale and persistence of the drone activity across multiple waves and districts in Kharkiv are a significant concern, resulting in confirmed impacts, fires (including at Barabashovo market), and now a reported 4 confirmed civilian injuries suffering from acute stress reaction. Russian tactical aviation continues to launch guided aerial bombs (KABs) on Donetsk Oblast and Sumy Oblast, with reports of 8 aviation strikes on 7 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast using guided aerial bombs. Ground combat continues with claimed Russian advances. Russian sources are highlighting ongoing offensive operations on the Southern Donetsk direction ("Vostok" grouping of forces reports the start of the battle for Bohodyr, repelling counterattacks by the 79th Airborne Assault Brigade and 37th Marine Infantry Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and destroying one armored fighting vehicle, occupying a height near Otradnoe, and clearing forest belts and taking heights near Fedorovka), the Konstantinovka direction (claimed Russian forces are developing success in the area of Tarasovka and Novoolenovka), the Pokrovsk direction (Russian Army claims to be continuing to move towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with enemy channels noting that only 3 km remain to the administrative border, and the "Center" grouping of forces claiming to have occupied Uspenovka and entered Novolexandrivka), and the Zaporizhzhia front (Russian paratroopers claim to have advanced west of Mali Shcherbaki, clearing a difficult forest belt, and Russian forces claim to have driven the enemy out of a brick factory near Mala Tokmachka using drones and artillery). Russian military bloggers also claim successful defensive actions against Ukrainian attempts in the Kursk border region (specifically near Tetkino and Glushkovo), reporting claimed destruction of Ukrainian military vehicles on a key supply route (Sudzha-Yunakovka road) and claiming successful interdiction of Ukrainian forces and equipment in the Sumy border region near Tetkino, linking it to Ukrainian activities there. Russia claims successful interdiction of Ukrainian vehicles on the Sudzha-Yunakovka road, which they refer to as the "road of death." Russian forces also claim to have secured the settlement of Goncharovka in Kursk Oblast. Discussions regarding potential Russian offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast, specifically targeting the Toretsk and eastern Pokrovsk directions with the aim of advancing towards Konstantinovka and surrounding Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, are highlighted by analysis from ISW. Russian information operations remain active, including showcasing military training in the Kursk border region and domestic propaganda around Victory Day, and promotion of new deliveries of tanks (T-72B3M and T-90M "Proryv"). Ukrainian military intelligence reports the absence of Russian "Kalibr" missile carriers in the Black and Azov Seas. Military bloggers on both sides are actively highlighting tactical engagements and promoting their narratives, including claims of high civilian casualties in Russia due to Ukrainian strikes over the past week. Ukrainian forces are observing Infantry Day. Temporary restrictions on airport operations in several Russian cities due to drone attacks are being gradually lifted, but new restrictions have been imposed in Kazan and Nizhnekamsk. Russia is claiming high numbers of Ukrainian drone interceptions over Moscow and Voronezh Oblast. Ukrainian sources are reporting the aftermath of the Kharkiv drone attacks across multiple districts.

Key updates and analysis from the new messages:

Ukrainian General Staff Reports Daily Russian Losses: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report estimated cumulative Russian combat losses from February 24, 2022, to May 6, 2025. Daily losses for May 5 are reported as 1430 personnel, 3 tanks, 5 armored personnel vehicles, 61 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 145 operational-tactical UAVs, 103 vehicles and fuel tanks, and 3 units of special equipment. This provides an updated picture of the attrition rate of Russian forces and equipment according to Ukrainian reporting.
Increased Civilian Casualties in Kharkiv and Confirmation of Damage: Оперативний ЗСУ and ASTRA report that the number of injured in Kharkiv due to Russian attacks has risen to 4. ASTRA also explicitly confirms that the largest market in Kharkiv, "Barabashovo," is on fire after a Russian attack, and provides photos and video of the damage. РБК-Україна shares a video from the Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor's office showing the consequences of the attack, stating that private enterprises, a shopping center, and private houses were hit. This provides clearer confirmation and increased detail on the impact of the recent Russian attack on Kharkiv, including civilian casualties and damage to civilian and commercial infrastructure.
Massive Ukrainian Drone Attack on Russian Regions Claimed with High Interception Numbers: Оперативний ЗСУ, ASTRA, Два майора, and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны report a massive Ukrainian drone attack on various Russian regions overnight. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over 11 regions: 32 over Bryansk Oblast, 22 over Voronezh Oblast, 19 over Moscow region, 10 over Penza Oblast, 9 over Kaluga Oblast, 6 over Belgorod Oblast, 2 over Lipetsk Oblast, 2 over Samara Oblast, 1 over Vladimir Oblast, 1 over Kursk Oblast, and 1 over Rostov Oblast. Temporary airport restrictions ("Kovyor" plan) were introduced in airports around Moscow (Vnukovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky, Domodedovo) and in Saratov, Ivanovo, Nizhny Novgorod, Yaroslavl, Samara, Volgograd, Kaluga, Kazan, and Nizhnekamsk. This indicates a significant and widespread Ukrainian deep strike effort targeting multiple regions within Russia, although Russia claims a high rate of successful interceptions. The broad geographical spread of the claimed interceptions is noteworthy.
Continued Russian Drone Activity and Movements Across Ukraine: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provides updated information on Russian "Shahed" drone movements, reporting a group from Sumy Oblast heading to Poltava, several groups in Poltava heading to Cherkasy, and a UAV from Cherkasy heading to Kirovohrad. This confirms ongoing Russian drone activity and highlights specific current trajectories.
Shelling and Drone Attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports on Russian attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, including artillery shelling of Myrivska community in Nikopol district, a drone attack on Marhanetska community, an FPV drone strike on Nikopol damaging 2 private houses, and aviation strikes with KABs on Novopavlivska community in Synelnykove district damaging infrastructure. An attack on an enterprise in Ilaryonivska community is also reported with details being clarified. This provides specific details on the intensity and nature of Russian attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming the use of artillery, various types of drones, and guided aerial bombs, and impacting both residential areas and infrastructure.
Situation in Kryvyi Rih: Олександр Вілкул reports that the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled, with no shelling in Kryvyi Rih district overnight. However, he confirms the attacks in Nikopol and Marhanets communities in Nikopol district. This provides a localized assessment of the situation in the Kryvyi Rih area, distinguishing it from the active combat and shelling in neighboring districts.
Russian Military Blogger Reports on Asia-Pacific and Middle East Crises: Rybar provides video summaries of crises in the Asia-Pacific region (Pakistani ammunition issues, Philippines-US military exercises, Myanmar conflict) and the Middle East (Israel's plan for Gaza occupation, Turkish air force exercises, weapon surrender in Syria). This highlights the broader geopolitical context and other ongoing conflicts and tensions globally, which can have indirect implications for the conflict in Ukraine (e.g., global arms market, shifting international priorities).
Russian Military Blogger Commentary on History and Aviation: Басурин о главном commemorates the anniversary of the "Strizhi" (Swifts) Russian aerobatic team, providing historical details and achievements. This is likely part of Russian information operations linking current military capabilities to historical successes and national pride, particularly in the lead-up to Victory Day.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Kharkiv Oblast: Subjected to a massive and prolonged Russian drone attack with 20 confirmed strikes across multiple districts and eight locations, impacting residential buildings (Shevchenkivskyi, Kholodnohirskyi, Industrialnyi), a restaurant (Kyivskyi), a market (Barabashovo), a private enterprise, a shopping center, and vehicles. Confirmed casualties have increased to 4 injured civilians suffering from acute stress reaction. Russian UAV on the west heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (previous reporting). Russian UAV over Kharkiv city (previous reporting). Fire at Barabashovo market confirmed. (РБК-Україна, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, Два майора, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Donetsk Oblast (including Kramatorsk, Toretsk/Konstantinovka, Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, Horlivka, Dmytrivka): Russian UAV on the south of Kharkiv Oblast heading towards Donetsk Oblast (previous reporting). Launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation confirmed. Warning issued for Kramatorsk regarding approaching strike UAVs (previous reporting). Potential for major Russian offensive operations targeting Toretsk and eastern Pokrovsk directions, aiming for Konstantinovka, Pokrovsk, and Myrnohrad (ISW analysis). Russian forces claim to be developing success in the area of Tarasovka and Novoolenovka (Konstantinovka direction). Russian forces claim to be moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast south of Pokrovsk, with enemy channels noting 3 km to the administrative border. Russian "Center" grouping claims to have occupied Uspenovka and entered Novolexandrivka. Russian "Vostok" grouping claims the start of the battle for Bohodyr, repelling Ukrainian counterattacks, destroying one armored fighting vehicle, occupying a height near Otradnoe, and clearing forest belts and taking heights near Fedorovka (Southern Donetsk direction). Woman injured by UAV strike in Horlivka. Man injured by detonation of unexploded cluster submunition in Dmytrivka village. Launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation confirmed. Drones on the west of the oblast are heading north. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Два майора)
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (including Tetkino, Glushkovo, Leshchinovka, Rylsk, Shchegolevka, Goncharovka, Sudzha-Yunakovka road): Continued Ukrainian attempts of new strikes in the border region, specifically towards Tetkino and Glushkovo, reportedly repelled by Russian forces with claimed destruction of Ukrainian military vehicles, including hunting for armored vehicles and pickup trucks in the Sumy border area near Tetkino. Russian forces claim liberation of Goncharovka. Claimed destruction of a "Ural" truck and a pickup truck on the Sudzha-Yunakovka road by Russian UAVs. Russian Ministry of Defense shows training of assault troops in the border area. Russian forces claim to be repelling numerous Ukrainian attacks on the Tetkino and Glushkovo directions, utilizing aviation with FABs, and detecting Ukrainian force accumulation. Reported firefights with Ukrainian DRGs. Authorities in Glushkovo district assisting with evacuation due to increased FPV drone attacks. Claimed deaths, injuries, and damage to homes and civilian infrastructure in the region. Specific incidents reported: drone attack on residential building in Leshchinovka, strike on power substation in Rylsk injuring two minors, FPV drone attack on car near Shchegolevka killing two women and injuring three civilians. Russia claims 1 Ukrainian UAV shot down over the oblast overnight. Russian sources claim high numbers of civilian casualties in Russia due to Ukrainian strikes over the past week. (ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Рыбарь, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ASTRA)
Sumy Oblast (including Bilopillia, Vorozhba, Bilovody, Loknya, Basovka, Tetkino vicinity): Russian UAV from the vicinity heading towards Chernihiv Oblast (previous reporting). Russian UAVs on the south/center heading south (previous reporting). Russian UAVs on the east/south heading towards Poltava Oblast (previous reporting). Claimed Russian continued offensive actions on the Sumy direction towards Bilovody and Loknya from Zhuravka and Basovka. Claimed Russian forces are hunting for Ukrainian armored vehicles and pickup trucks with infantry in the border area where Ukraine is concentrating forces for attacks near Tetkino. Evacuation announced in Bilopillia and Vorozhba (previous reporting). Russian UAV on the east heading southwest (previous reporting). Russian UAV on the south heading south (previous reporting). Launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation confirmed. Group of UAVs from Sumy Oblast heading to Poltava. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Рыбарь, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Chernihiv Oblast: Russian UAV from the vicinity of Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast (previous reporting). Russian UAVs on the south/north heading south (previous reporting). Group of Russian UAVs from Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast reported (previous reporting). (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна)
Poltava Oblast (including Myrhorod): Russian UAV heading southwest (previous reporting). Russian UAVs on the south/north heading south (previous reporting). Russian UAVs on the east/south of Sumy Oblast heading towards Poltava Oblast (previous reporting). Warning issued for Poltava and Myrhorod regarding approaching strike UAVs (previous reporting). Russian UAV on Poltava Oblast heading southwest (previous reporting). Group of UAVs from Sumy Oblast heading to Poltava. Several groups of UAVs in Poltava heading to Cherkasy. Drones on the south, east, and center of the oblast are heading west. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (including Pavlohrad, Dnipro, Nikopol, Marhanets, Synelnykove, Ilaryonivka): Russian UAV on the west of Kharkiv Oblast heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (previous reporting). Russian UAV in the direction of Pavlohrad (previous reporting). Threat of strike UAVs announced for Кіровоградська область (previous reporting). Strike UAVs heading towards Dnipro (previous reporting). Russian Army claims to be continuing to move towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast south of Pokrovsk, with enemy channels noting that only 3 km remain to the administrative border (previous reporting). Shelling of Myrivska community in Nikopol district. Drone attack on Marhanetska community. FPV drone strike on Nikopol damaging 2 private houses. Aviation strikes with KABs on Novopavlivska community in Synelnykove district damaging infrastructure. Attack on an enterprise in Ilaryonivka community reported. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Два майора, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА))
Cherkasy Oblast (including Zvenyhorodskyi district): Russian UAV heading southwest (previous reporting). Threat of strike UAVs for Черкаська область announced (previous reporting). Russian UAV in Cherkasy Oblast heading southwest (previous reporting). Threat of strike UAVs announced for Zvenyhorodskyi district (previous reporting). UAV from Cherkasy heading to Kirovohrad. Several groups of UAVs in Poltava heading to Cherkasy. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Kirovohrad Oblast: Threat of strike UAVs announced (previous reporting). Drones on the north and east of the oblast are heading west. UAV from Cherkasy heading to Kirovohrad. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Zaporizhzhia Front (including Mali Shcherbaki, Mala Tokmachka, Malokaterynivka, Chervonodniprovka, Lobkove, Stepove, Prymorske, Kamianke, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Charivne, Novodarivka, Orikhiv, Zaliznychne, Novoandriivka): Russian paratroopers claim to have advanced west of Mali Shcherbaki, clearing a difficult forest belt. Russian forces claim to have driven the enemy out of a brick factory near Mala Tokmachka using drones and artillery. Reports of 293 UAV attacks, 8 aviation strikes (likely KABs), 8 MLRS attacks, and 170 artillery attacks on multiple settlements. (Два майора, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)
Kherson Direction (including Aleshki, Veliki Kopani, Kakhovka, Nova Kakhovka, Dniepryany, Zabarino, Kairy, Kazachyi Laheri, Korsunka, Obryvki, Proletarka, Sagi): Settlements under Ukrainian attack. Two civilian injuries reported. (Два майора)
Moscow and Moscow Oblast (Russia): Russian authorities claim 19 drones targeting Moscow were shot down overnight. Temporary restrictions at Domodedovo and Zhukovsky airports were lifted (previous reporting). Reported impacts to Vnukovo airport. Russian military blogger reports 19 enemy UAVs shot down over Moscow overnight. Russian Ministry of Defense claims 19 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over the Moscow region overnight. Temporary airport restrictions ("Kovyor" plan) were introduced in airports around Moscow (Vnukovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky, Domodedovo). (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, Два майора, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA)
Voronezh Oblast (Russia): Russian forces claim at least 18 UAVs were detected and destroyed by air defense and electronic warfare systems over the region overnight. Some damage from falling debris reported. Russian military blogger reports at least 18 UAVs shot down over the region overnight. Russian Ministry of Defense claims 22 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over the oblast overnight. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Два майора, ТАСС, ASTRA)
Saratov Oblast (Russia): Temporary restrictions at the airport were lifted (previous reporting). Temporary airport restrictions ("Kovyor" plan) were introduced. (ТАСС, STERNENKO)
Volgograd Oblast (Russia): Temporary restrictions at the airport were lifted (previous reporting). Temporary airport restrictions ("Kovyor" plan) were introduced. (ТАСС, STERNENKO)
Ivanovo Oblast (Russia): Temporary restrictions at the airport were lifted. Temporary airport restrictions ("Kovyor" plan) were introduced. (ТАСС, STERNENKO)
Kaluga Oblast (Russia): Temporary restrictions at the airport were lifted. Temporary airport restrictions ("Kovyor" plan) were introduced. Russian Ministry of Defense claims 9 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over the oblast overnight. (ТАСС, STERNENKO, ASTRA)
Nizhny Novgorod Oblast (Russia): Temporary restrictions at the airport were lifted. Temporary airport restrictions ("Kovyor" plan) were introduced. (ТАСС, STERNENKO)
Yaroslavl Oblast (Russia): Temporary restrictions at the airport were lifted. Temporary airport restrictions ("Kovyor" plan) were introduced. (ТАСС, STERNENKO)
Samara Oblast (Russia): Temporary restrictions at the airport were lifted (previous reporting). Temporary airport restrictions ("Kovyor" plan) were introduced. Russian Ministry of Defense claims 2 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over the oblast overnight. (ТАСС, STERNENKO, ASTRA)
Kazan (Tatarstan, Russia): Temporary restrictions imposed at the airport (previous reporting). Temporary airport restrictions ("Kovyor" plan) were introduced. (ТАСС, STERNENKO)
Nizhnekamsk (Tatarstan, Russia): Temporary restrictions imposed at the airport (previous reporting). Temporary airport restrictions ("Kovyor" plan) were introduced. (ТАСС, STERNENKO)
Sudzha-Yunakovka road (Kursk Oblast, Russia): Claimed destruction of Ukrainian "Ural" truck and pickup truck by Russian UAVs. (Colonelcassad)
Goncharovka (Kursk Oblast, Russia): Russian Ministry of Defense claims liberation of the settlement. (ТАСС)
Dagestan (Russia) (including Makhachkala): Reported clash with "terrorists" resulting in police casualties (previous reporting). Reports of a shooting attack on traffic police in Makhachkala resulting in casualties (previous reporting). (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA)
Sverdlovsk Oblast (Russia) (including Bulnash): Gas explosion reported in a residential building in Bulnash with one person hospitalized. (ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Black Sea: Absence of Russian "Kalibr" missile carriers reported by Ukrainian Naval Forces. (РБК-Україна)
Azov Sea: Absence of Russian "Kalibr" missile carriers reported by Ukrainian Naval Forces. (РБК-Україна)
Dnipro (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Strike UAVs heading towards the city (previous reporting). (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Zvenyhorodskyi district (Cherkasy Oblast): Threat of strike UAVs announced (previous reporting). (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Uspenovka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian "Center" grouping claims to have occupied the settlement. (Два майора)
Novolexandrivka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian "Center" grouping claims to have entered the settlement. (Два майора)
Bohodyr (Donetsk Oblast): Russian "Vostok" grouping claims the start of the battle for the settlement. (Два майора)
Otradnoe (Donetsk Oblast): Russian forces claim to have occupied a height near the settlement. (Два майора)
Fedorovka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian forces claim to have cleared three forest belts and taken two dominant heights near the settlement. (Два майора)
Belgorod Oblast (Russia): Subjected to daily Ukrainian attacks impacting civilians and infrastructure. Russian military blogger reports high numbers of civilian casualties in Russia due to Ukrainian strikes over the past week. Russian Ministry of Defense claims 6 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over the oblast overnight. (Два майора, ТАСС, ASTRA)
Barabashovo market (Kharkiv): Fire due to a drone impact reported. Fire confirmed and reported by ASTRA. (Оперативний ЗСУ, ASTRA)
Shevchenkivskyi district (Kharkiv): Private house hit by drone debris, causing a fire. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
Kholodnohirskyi district (Kharkiv): Drone hit a car, causing a fire; another hit the ground damaging a residential building. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
Kyivskyi district (Kharkiv): Drone hit a restaurant building, causing a fire. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
Industrialnyi district (Kharkiv): Car damaged and set on fire by drone strike explosive wave and debris. (Оперативний ЗSU)
Shakhtersk direction: Russian military blogger shares video claiming operators of a special forces company destroyed a Ukrainian armored personnel carrier here using a UAV. (Воин DV)
Chasiv Yar area: Russian military blogger claims paratroopers of the 98th division eliminated a Ukrainian temporary deployment point here. Russian military blogger claims paratroopers of the 98th division destroyed a Ukrainian vehicle here. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Sumy Oblast (multiple settlements including Huliaipole, Orikhiv, Zaliznychne, Mala Tokmachka, Shcherbaky, Novodarivka, Stepove, Kamianke, Malokaterynivka, Chervonodniprovka, Lobkove, Prymorske, Charivne, Novodanylivka, Novoandriivka): Ukrainian military administration reports on the total Russian strikes over the past day, including 293 UAV attacks on 12 settlements, 8 aviation strikes (likely guided aerial bombs) on 7 settlements, 8 MLRS attacks on 5 settlements, and 170 artillery attacks on 8 settlements. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)
Bryansk Oblast (Russia): Russian Ministry of Defense claims 32 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over the oblast overnight. (ASTRA)
Penza Oblast (Russia): Russian Ministry of Defense claims 10 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over the oblast overnight. (ASTRA)
Lipetsk Oblast (Russia): Russian Ministry of Defense claims 2 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over the oblast overnight. (ASTRA)
Vladimir Oblast (Russia): Russian Ministry of Defense claims 1 Ukrainian UAV shot down over the oblast overnight. (ASTRA)
Rostov Oblast (Russia): Russian Ministry of Defense claims 1 Ukrainian UAV shot down over the oblast overnight. (ASTRA)
Nikopol (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Shelling of Myrivska community in the district, drone attack on Marhanetska community in the district, FPV drone strike on Nikopol damaging 2 private houses. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Олександр Вілкул)
Marhanetska community (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Drone attack reported. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (OVA), Олександр Вілкул)
Myrivska community (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Artillery shelling reported. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (OVA), Олександр Вілкул)
Novopavlivska community (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Synelnykove district): Aviation strikes with KABs reported, damaging infrastructure. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА))
Ilaryonivka community (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Attack on an enterprise reported, details being clarified. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА))

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Massive and prolonged Russian drone attack on Kharkiv with 20 confirmed strikes and reported impacts across multiple districts and eight locations, resulting in damage and 4 injured civilians, including impacts on residential areas, a restaurant, and a market. Continued widespread and dynamic Russian drone activity across numerous Ukrainian oblasts (Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv) with detailed and updated trajectories provided, including new areas of threat (Zvenyhorodskyi district) and specific targets (Dnipro), and high numbers of attacks on settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Warnings issued for Poltava, Myrhorod, and Kramatorsk regarding approaching strike UAVs (previous reporting). Massive Ukrainian drone attack on Russian regions overnight, with the Russian Ministry of Defense claiming 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over 11 regions. Temporary airport restrictions ("Kovyor" plan) were introduced in numerous airports in Russia, with some lifted and new ones imposed. Russian authorities claim significant interceptions of Ukrainian drones targeting Moscow (19 downed) and Voronezh Oblast (at least 18 downed) overnight with some damage on the ground. Russian UAVs claim destruction of Ukrainian military vehicles in Kursk Oblast and a Ukrainian armored personnel carrier on the Shakhtersk direction. Claimed Russian forces are hunting for Ukrainian armored vehicles and pickup trucks with infantry in the Sumy border area near Tetkino and detecting and destroying Ukrainian equipment there. Russian forces claim extensive use of FPV drones by the enemy on the Zaporizhzhia front. Russian forces claim to have used drones in conjunction with artillery to drive the enemy out of a brick factory near Mala Tokmachka. Woman injured by UAV strike in Horlivka. Russian military blogger reports high numbers of civilian casualties in Russia due to Ukrainian strikes over the past week, likely including drone attacks. Drone attack on Marhanetska community and FPV drone strike on Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reported. Ukrainian General Staff reports 145 Russian operational-tactical UAVs destroyed in the past day. Group of UAVs from Sumy Oblast heading to Poltava, several groups in Poltava heading to Cherkasy, and a UAV from Cherkasy heading to Kirovohrad reported. Drones on the west of Donetsk Oblast are heading north. Drones on the north and east of Kirovohrad Oblast are heading west. Drones on the south, east, and center of Poltava Oblast are heading west. (РБК-Україна, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Рыбарь, Два майора, Оперативний ЗСУ, Воин DV, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА))
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast and Sumy Oblast confirmed. Russian forces claim to be utilizing aviation with FABs with UMPK against Ukrainian forces attempting attacks in Kursk Oblast. Reports of 8 aviation strikes (likely KABs) on 7 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Aviation strikes with KABs on Novopavlivska community in Synelnykove district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reported, damaging infrastructure. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Два майора, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА))
Ballistic Missile Activity: Reported two ballistic missiles were used in the combined attack on Konotop (previous reporting).
Naval Activity: Ukrainian Naval Forces report the absence of Russian "Kalibr" missile carriers in the Black and Azov Seas. (РБК-Україна)
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Heavy artillery shelling continues on numerous fronts (previous reporting). Russian forces claim to be using artillery to counter Ukrainian attempts to breach defenses near Tetkino. Russian forces claim to have used artillery in conjunction with drones to drive the enemy out of a brick factory near Mala Tokmachka. Settlements on the Kherson direction and in the DPR subjected to shelling and drone attacks. Reports of 8 MLRS attacks and 170 artillery attacks on settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Man injured by detonation of unexploded cluster submunition in Dmytrivka village. Artillery shelling of Myrivska community in Nikopol district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reported. Ukrainian General Staff reports 61 Russian artillery systems and 1 MLRS destroyed in the past day. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, РБК-Україна)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Russian President Putin's Statements and Actions: Congratulations to WWII veterans with postcards for Victory Day. (ТАСС)
Russian Information Operations: Promotion of claimed police casualties in Dagestan as heroes (previous reporting). Reporting on routine domestic issues (previous reporting). Claiming liberation of territory and destruction of Ukrainian military assets. Showcasing military training. Providing daily video summaries with Russian perspectives (previous reporting). (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Полиция Хабаровского края, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Рыбарь, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Fighterbomber) Reporting on international diplomatic activities (US-Iran nuclear talks) (previous reporting). (ТАСС) Celebrating Victory Day with historical quizzes and videos, and promoting new tank deliveries. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, ТАСС) Detailed reports from military bloggers highlighting claimed Russian successes and Ukrainian losses across various fronts, and high numbers of civilian casualties in Russia due to Ukrainian strikes. (Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС) Commemorating the anniversary of the "Strizhi" aerobatic team. (Басурин о главном)
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's Statements (Previous Reporting): Comments on the overnight Russian attacks, the scale of drone usage, and reiteration of Ukraine's conditions for a real ceasefire.
Ukrainian Information Operations: Commemorating Infantry Day and highlighting the role and sacrifices of infantry. (Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Оперативний ЗСУ) Reporting on high Russian losses according to Ukrainian General Staff data. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ) Highlighting the impact of Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv. (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, ASTRA) Reporting on Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian regions and associated airport disruptions. (Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO)
International Relations: Reporting on potential US-Iran nuclear talks (previous reporting). (ТАСС) Reporting on Donald Trump's statement regarding the US winning World War II. (РБК-Україна) Reporting on Donald Trump's statement about helping Gaza with food aid. (РБК-Україна) Rybar provides video summaries of crises in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions. (Рыбарь)
Military Aid Discussions: Greece has explicitly denied plans to supply Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine (previous reporting). Discussions regarding potential Russian offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast are highlighted by analysis from ISW (previous reporting). (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, РБК-Україна)
Peace Talks and Ceasefire Conditions: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy reiterated Ukraine's readiness for a "sustainable peace" and a conditional ceasefire (30 days of full silence) with Czech officials, seeking support for pressure on Russia (previous reporting).
European Integration: Ukraine is ready to open the first negotiation clusters for EU accession talks and is seeking support from the Czech Republic for this process (previous reporting).
Romanian Presidential Elections: Results of the first round reported, with an ultra-right candidate leading and proceeding to the second round (previous reporting).

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security Incident: Reported clash with "terrorists" in Dagestan resulting in police casualties (previous reporting). Reports of a shooting attack on traffic police in Makhachkala, Dagestan, resulting in casualties (previous reporting). (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA)
Infrastructure Impact: Temporary restrictions on airport operations in multiple cities due to drone attacks, with some lifted and new ones imposed. Damage reported in Voronezh Oblast from falling drone debris. Temporary airport restrictions ("Kovyor" plan) were introduced in numerous airports in Russia due to a massive Ukrainian drone attack. Damage reported in Sverdlovsk Oblast from a gas explosion. (ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Два майора, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Military Readiness and Propaganda: Showcasing training of assault troops in the Kursk border area. Daily video summaries from military bloggers. Routine content from military channels. Delivery of new T-72B3M and T-90M "Proryv" tanks. (ТАСС, Рыбарь, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Fighterbomber, ТАСС) Victory Day quizzes and videos from military bloggers. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА) Commemorating the anniversary of the "Strizhi" aerobatic team. (Басурин о главном) Claims of high Ukrainian drone interceptions. (ASTRA, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Domestic News: Gas explosion reported in Sverdlovsk Oblast with one person hospitalized (previous reporting). Gas explosion reported in a residential building in Bulnash, Sverdlovsk Oblast, with one person hospitalized. Police report on a fraud case in Khabarovsk. (ТАСС, Полиция Хабаровского края, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Impact of Ukrainian Attacks: Claimed deaths, injuries, and damage to homes and civilian infrastructure in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts due to Ukrainian FPV drone attacks and shelling. Russian military blogger reports high numbers of civilian casualties in Russia due to Ukrainian strikes over the past week (15 killed, over 140 injured). Russian Ministry of Defense claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over 11 regions overnight. (Два майора, ТАСС, ASTRA, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated):

Public Morale and Support for Military: Commemorating Infantry Day in Ukraine. (Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Humanitarian Situation: Increased civilian casualties (4 injured) and widespread damage to residential and commercial infrastructure in Kharkiv due to the massive drone attack. Damage reported in Voronezh Oblast from falling drone debris. Gas explosion in Sverdlovsk Oblast with one person hospitalized (previous reporting). Claimed deaths, injuries, and damage to homes and civilian infrastructure in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts due to Ukrainian attacks. Two civilian injuries reported on the Kherson direction due to Ukrainian attacks. Woman injured by UAV strike in Horlivka. Man injured by detonation of unexploded cluster submunition in Dmytrivka village. Reports of high numbers of civilian casualties in Russia due to Ukrainian strikes over the past week (15 killed, over 140 injured). Damage to infrastructure and private houses in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast due to shelling, drone, and KAB attacks, with no casualties reported. (РБК-Україна, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, Два майора, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА))
International Aid: Donald Trump's statement about helping Gaza with food aid. (РБК-Україна)

Other Information (Updated):

Analysis of Russian Intentions: Analysis from ISW suggests potential for a major Russian offensive in Donetsk Oblast targeting the Toretsk and eastern Pokrovsk directions with specific strategic objectives (previous reporting). (РБК-Україна)
Developments in the Middle East: Rybar provides a video summary of the crisis in the Middle East, including Israel's approval of a plan to fully occupy the Gaza Strip, military exercises in Turkey, and a reported ceremony of weapon surrender in southern Syria. Donald Trump's statement about helping Gaza with food aid. (Рыбарь, РБК-Україна)
Asian-Pacific Region Developments: Rybar provides a video summary of the crisis in the Asia-Pacific region, including Pakistani ammunition issues, Philippines-US military exercises, and the Myanmar conflict. (Рыбарь)
Russian Aerobatic Team Anniversary: Commemoration of the anniversary of the "Strizhi" (Swifts) Russian aerobatic team. (Басурин о главном)

Potential Future Developments

Continued and Potentially Intensified Russian Aerial Attacks on Kharkiv and Other Regions: The massive and prolonged nature of the recent drone attack on Kharkiv, the increased casualties, and the numerous ongoing drone movements reported across various oblasts, including new areas of threat like Zvenyhorodskyi district and a focus on Dnipro, indicate that Russia is likely to continue and potentially intensify its aerial campaign. Expect further waves of drone attacks targeting Kharkiv and other areas, potentially leading to more casualties and damage. The expansion of threat announcements and specific targeting suggest adapting tactics and areas of focus. The confirmed use of guided aerial bombs on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts, and reports of their use in Zaporizhzhia and now Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, suggest these attacks will continue, particularly in areas of active ground combat and against infrastructure.
Sustained Russian Offensive Efforts on Key Ground Axes: Despite the heavy focus on aerial attacks, the reported KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast and the ISW analysis on potential Russian offensive operations in the Toretsk and eastern Pokrovsk directions, along with Russian claims of advances on multiple fronts (Konstantinovka, Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy border region), indicate that ground combat will remain intense on key fronts, particularly in Donetsk. Expect continued Russian attempts to gain ground in these areas, potentially leading to significant engagements. The claimed start of the battle for Bohodyr on the Southern Donetsk direction suggests this is a current focal point.
Continued Contested Situation and Cross-Border Activity in Kursk and Sumy: The reports of continued Ukrainian attempts and Russian counter-actions in the Kursk border region, and claimed Russian offensive actions and hunting of Ukrainian forces in the Sumy border region, suggest these areas will remain active, with both sides attempting to achieve limited objectives or disrupt enemy operations. Expect further reports of engagements and potential shifts in control of small settlements or key routes, and continued humanitarian impact on border communities. The specific claims of Russian forces detecting and destroying Ukrainian equipment in the Sumy border region near Tetkino suggest this area will continue to be a focal point.
Further Ukrainian Deep Strikes and Their Impact on Russian Infrastructure: The massive scale of the claimed Ukrainian drone attack on Russian regions overnight, despite claimed high interception numbers, indicates Ukraine's continued capability and intent to conduct deep strikes targeting multiple regions within Russia. Expect further attempts by Ukraine to target military and potentially strategic infrastructure within Russia, which could lead to renewed disruptions to air travel and require Russia to adapt its air defense strategies. The high numbers of claimed civilian casualties in Russia due to Ukrainian strikes over the past week suggest that the human cost of these strikes is a significant factor in the information war and could influence targeting decisions or Russian responses. The broad geographical spread of claimed interceptions suggests Ukraine is attempting to stretch Russian air defenses.
Continued Focus on Information Operations, Especially Around Victory Day: Both sides will likely continue to leverage information operations to shape narratives, particularly in the lead-up to Victory Day. Russia is likely to continue emphasizing its military successes, highlighting claimed Ukrainian "atrocities," and promoting narratives related to internal security, national pride, and historical interpretations. The promotion of new tank deliveries and commemoration of military aviation anniversaries are a part of this effort to showcase military capability and link it to historical success. Ukraine will likely continue to highlight the impact of Russian attacks on civilians and their own defensive efforts and honor their military personnel, and report on Russian losses. Statements from international figures, like Donald Trump, and reports on other global crises can also be leveraged in these information operations.
Potential for Increased Naval Activity: While the absence of "Kalibr" carriers in the Black and Azov Seas is a positive sign, their potential return and deployment could quickly reintroduce a significant missile threat from the sea. Monitoring naval activity will remain crucial.
Ongoing Humanitarian Impact: The confirmed casualties and damage in Kharkiv and the reported damage and casualties in Russian border regions and occupied territories and now in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast underscore the continued human cost of the conflict. Expect further reports of civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure as military operations continue. The detailed reports of civilian casualties in Russia due to Ukrainian strikes highlight the expanding human cost of the conflict on both sides.
Continued Internal Security Concerns in Russia: The reports of internal security incidents in Dagestan and the gas explosion in Sverdlovsk Oblast suggest potential underlying tensions or activities unrelated to the conflict in Ukraine but which could impact internal stability. The widespread nature of the claimed Ukrainian drone attack on Russian regions and the associated airport disruptions also highlight internal security challenges for Russia.

Operational Summary

The immediate operational picture is dominated by a severe and prolonged Russian drone attack on Kharkiv, resulting in increased civilian casualties and significant damage across multiple districts and locations, including residential areas, a restaurant, and a market, with the Barabashovo market confirmed to be on fire. Widespread Russian drone activity continues across numerous other Ukrainian oblasts, with updated trajectories and new areas of threat identified, including a focus on Dnipro and the Cherkasy region, and now with reported movements in Kirovohrad and Poltava and northward movement in western Donetsk. Russian tactical aviation is actively employing guided aerial bombs on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts, and reportedly in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, alongside extensive drone, MLRS, and artillery attacks in Zaporizhzhia and shelling and drone/KAB attacks in Dnipropetrovsk. Ground combat remains intense, particularly in the Kursk and Sumy border regions where Ukrainian forces are reportedly attempting attacks and Russian forces claim success in repelling attacks, destroying Ukrainian vehicles, and conducting offensive actions. Russian military bloggers are providing detailed claims of advances on multiple fronts, including Konstantinovka, Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia. A massive Ukrainian drone attack on Russian regions overnight led to claimed high numbers of interceptions across 11 regions and temporary airport restrictions in numerous cities. The reported absence of Russian "Kalibr" missile carriers in the Black and Azov Seas is a potentially significant development. Information operations remain a critical element of the conflict, with both sides actively promoting their narratives, particularly around the upcoming Victory Day, including showcasing new military deliveries and commemorating military aviation. The humanitarian impact of the conflict is clearly evidenced by the casualties and damage in Kharkiv, reported casualties and damage in Russian border regions and occupied territories, and damage in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian forces are observing Infantry Day and reporting on high Russian losses. Developments in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions are also being reported, highlighting the broader regional and global security context.

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on the provided information and should not be considered exhaustive or definitive. Real-time military intelligence is constantly evolving, and independent verification of all claims is crucial. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report