Sitrep 2025-05-06 04:01:42

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 6, 2025, 04:01 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment continues to be dominated by intense Russian aerial attacks, particularly with "Shahed" drones, focusing heavily on Kharkiv and extending to other oblasts. The scale and persistence of the drone activity across multiple waves and districts in Kharkiv are a significant concern, resulting in confirmed impacts, fires, and now a reported 20 total strikes on Kharkiv with 4 confirmed civilian injuries suffering from acute stress reaction. Russian tactical aviation continues to launch guided aerial bombs (KABs) on Donetsk Oblast. Ground combat continues, with reports of continued Ukrainian efforts in the Kursk border region, met with Russian counter-actions and claimed destruction of Ukrainian military vehicles on a key supply route. Russia claims successful interdiction of Ukrainian vehicles on the Sudzha-Yunakovka road, which they refer to as the "road of death." Russian forces also claim to have secured the settlement of Goncharovka in Kursk Oblast. Discussions regarding potential Russian offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast, specifically targeting the Toretsk and eastern Pokrovsk directions with the aim of advancing towards Konstantinovka and surrounding Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, are highlighted by analysis from ISW. Russian information operations remain active, including showcasing military training in the Kursk border region and domestic propaganda around Victory Day. Temporary restrictions on airport operations in several Russian cities due to drone attacks are being gradually lifted, but new restrictions have been imposed in Kazan and Nizhnekamsk. Ukrainian naval intelligence reports the absence of Russian "Kalibr" missile carriers in the Black and Azov Seas. Military bloggers on both sides are actively highlighting tactical engagements and promoting their narratives. Ukrainian forces are observing Infantry Day.

Key updates and analysis from the new messages:

Increased Civilian Casualties in Kharkiv Drone Attack: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА and РБК-Україна report an increase in the number of injured civilians in Kharkiv to 4. The newly reported casualties are two men, aged 59 and 44, who also suffered from acute stress reaction. This underscores the continued humanitarian impact of the massive Russian drone attack.
Continued Extensive Russian Drone Activity: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continues to provide updated information on Russian drone movements across various oblasts. New updates include a UAV in the east of Sumy Oblast heading southwest, a UAV in the south of Sumy Oblast heading south, strike UAVs heading towards Dnipro, and a UAV in Poltava Oblast heading southwest. A threat of strike UAVs has been announced for Zvenyhorodskyi district in Cherkasy Oblast. This indicates ongoing and widespread Russian drone activity, with a renewed focus on Dnipro and the Cherkasy region.
Russian Claims of Destroying Ukrainian Equipment Near Tetkino: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming that soldiers of the 217th regiment of the Ivanovo Airborne Division ("Sever" grouping of forces) are hunting for armored vehicles and pickup trucks with infantry of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the border area of Sumy Oblast, where the enemy is concentrating forces for attacks in the area of Kursk's Tetkino. This report from a Russian military blogger highlights claimed successful Russian interdiction of Ukrainian forces and equipment in the Sumy border region, linking it to Ukrainian activities near Tetkino.
Russian Air Defense Claims and Damage: Два майора reports a massive drone raid on Russian regions, with Moscow's mayor Sobyanin reporting 19 enemy UAVs shot down over Moscow overnight, and the governor of Voronezh Oblast, Alexander Gusev, reporting at least 18 UAVs destroyed over the region overnight with some damage on the ground. They also report on claimed successful Russian counter-attacks against Ukrainian forces attempting to attack the borders of Kursk Oblast on the Tetkino and Glushkovo directions, utilizing aviation with FABs with UMPK. They mention Russian forces repelled numerous enemy attacks, claiming that Ukrainian actions to accumulate personnel and equipment were detected in advance. They link the Ukrainian choice of direction to the terrain and attempts to isolate the combat area by undermining bridges. They report on firefights with enemy reconnaissance and sabotage groups (DRG). They state that local authorities in the Glushkovo district are assisting with the evacuation of residents to safer areas in Kursk Oblast due to increased FPV drone attacks, resulting in claimed deaths, injuries, and damage to homes and civilian infrastructure. They provide specific examples of incidents, including a drone attack on a residential building in Leshchinovka, a strike on a power substation in Rylsk injuring two minors and causing power outages, and an FPV drone attack on a car near Shchegolevka killing two women and injuring three civilians. This detailed report from a Russian military blogger highlights the intensity of cross-border attacks, claimed Russian defensive successes, and the humanitarian impact on Russian border regions.
Russian Claims of Advances on Multiple Fronts: Два майора provides a summary of the situation across various fronts, claiming Russian successes. On the Konstantinovka direction, they claim Russian forces are developing success in the area of Tarasovka and Novoolenovka. South of Pokrovsk, they claim the Russian Army is continuing to move towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with enemy channels noting that only 3 km remain to the administrative border. They also claim that the "Center" grouping of forces has occupied Uspenovka and entered Novolexandrivka, as acknowledged by enemy resources. On the Southern Donetsk direction, they claim the "Vostok" grouping of forces reports the start of the battle for Bohodyr, repelling counterattacks by the 79th Airborne Assault Brigade and 37th Marine Infantry Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and destroying one armored fighting vehicle. They claim Russian forces have occupied a height near Otradnoe, creating a bridgehead for further assault, and have cleared three forest belts and taken two dominant heights near Fedorovka. On the Zaporizhzhia front, they claim Russian paratroopers have advanced west of Mali Shcherbaki, clearing a difficult forest belt. They note that holding this area is difficult due to the enemy's extensive use of FPV drones (around 20-50 per point). They claim that near Mala Tokmachka, Russian forces have driven the enemy out of a brick factory using drones and artillery, although Russian forces have not yet entered the factory territory. On the Kherson direction, they list settlements under Ukrainian attack: Aleshki, Veliki Kopani, Kakhovka, Nova Kakhovka, Dniepryany, Zabarino, Kairy, Kazachyi Laheri, Korsunka, Obryvki, Proletarka, and Sagi, reporting two civilian injuries. In the DPR, they report a woman born in 1932 injured by a UAV strike in Horlivka and a man injured by the detonation of an unexploded cluster submunition in Dmytrivka village. This comprehensive report from a Russian military blogger provides a detailed overview of claimed Russian tactical successes and Ukrainian losses across multiple fronts, and also highlights the impact of shelling and drone attacks on civilian areas in Russian-occupied territories.
Russian Information Operations - Victory Day and Historical Narratives: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 poses a quiz about Victory Day parades during the Great Patriotic War, aiming to engage with their audience around this symbolic date. ТАСС shares photos of Vladimir Putin congratulating WWII veterans with postcards for the 80th anniversary of Victory Day. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video featuring a small T-34 tank, framed as a poignant story about memory and defending the honor of a great feat. These are examples of Russian information operations focused on historical narratives and national pride, particularly around the upcoming Victory Day.
Ukrainian Military Commemorates Infantry Day: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України shares a message on May 6th, commemorating Infantry Day. They highlight the crucial role of infantry as the foundation of the Ukrainian army, their bravery in difficult conditions, and express respect for those serving and remembrance for the fallen. This is a Ukrainian information operation aimed at honoring military personnel and boosting morale within the armed forces and among the population.
Continued Airport Restrictions in Russia: ТАСС reports that temporary restrictions have been lifted at airports in Ivanovo, Kaluga, Nizhny Novgorod, and Yaroslavl. However, Два майора reports on continued impacts to airports around Moscow (Vnukovo) and other regions due to drone attacks, with claimed high numbers of interceptions. This indicates ongoing disruption to Russian air travel due to Ukrainian deep strikes.
Internal Russian Issues - Fraud: Полиция Хабаровского края reports on a case of a Khabarovsk resident losing over 4 million rubles to telephone scammers. This is a domestic Russian law enforcement report, not directly related to the conflict but illustrating internal issues.
Impact of Russian Attacks on Civilian Infrastructure in Kharkiv: РБК-Україна shares a video with the head of the Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor's office stating that private enterprises, a shopping center, and private houses were hit in Kharkiv by Russian attacks. This confirms the widespread impact of the drone attack on civilian and commercial infrastructure.
Russian Military Blogger Narrative on Battles Near Tetkino and Sumy Direction: Два майора provides a detailed account of claimed Russian successes in repelling Ukrainian attacks near Tetkino, including the use of aviation with FABs, and also claims continued Russian offensive actions on the Sumy direction towards Bilovody and Loknya. They link the Ukrainian efforts near Tetkino to an attempt to stretch Russian forces of the "Sever" grouping. This reinforces the narrative of active combat and Russian advances in these border regions.
Russian Military Blogger Narrative on Advances on Other Fronts: Два майора's report on claimed advances on the Konstantinovka, Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia fronts, including specific locations and Ukrainian units encountered, provides a detailed Russian perspective on the tactical situation in these key areas. Their assessment of high Ukrainian losses and the difficulty of holding positions due to drone use on the Zaporizhzhia front offers insight into the challenges faced by both sides.
Russian Military Blogger Narrative on Shelling and Drone Attacks in Russian and Occupied Territories: Два майора's reporting on Ukrainian shelling and drone attacks in Belgorod Oblast, the Kherson direction, and the DPR highlights the impact on civilian populations and infrastructure in these areas from a Russian perspective.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Kharkiv Oblast: Subjected to a massive and prolonged Russian drone attack with 20 confirmed strikes across multiple districts and eight locations, impacting residential buildings, a restaurant, a market, a private enterprise, a shopping center, and vehicles. Confirmed casualties have increased to 4 injured civilians suffering from acute stress reaction. Russian UAV on the west heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian UAV over Kharkiv city (previous reporting). (РБК-Україна, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, Два майора)
Donetsk Oblast (including Kramatorsk, Toretsk/Konstantinovka, Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, Horlivka, Dmytrivka): Russian UAV on the south of Kharkiv Oblast heading towards Donetsk Oblast (previous reporting). Launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation confirmed (previous reporting). Warning issued for Kramatorsk regarding approaching strike UAVs (previous reporting). Potential for major Russian offensive operations targeting Toretsk and eastern Pokrovsk directions, aiming for Konstantinovka, Pokrovsk, and Myrnohrad (ISW analysis). Russian forces claim to be developing success in the area of Tarasovka and Novoolenovka (Konstantinovka direction). Russian forces claim to be moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast south of Pokrovsk, with enemy channels noting 3 km to the administrative border. Russian "Center" grouping claims to have occupied Uspenovka and entered Novolexandrivka. Russian "Vostok" grouping claims the start of the battle for Bohodyr, repelling Ukrainian counterattacks, destroying one armored fighting vehicle, occupying a height near Otradnoe, and clearing forest belts and taking heights near Fedorovka (Southern Donetsk direction). Woman injured by UAV strike in Horlivka. Man injured by detonation of unexploded cluster submunition in Dmytrivka village. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Два майора)
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (including Tetkino, Glushkovo, Leshchinovka, Rylsk, Shchegolevka): Continued Ukrainian attempts of new strikes in the border region, specifically towards Tetkino, reportedly repelled by Russian forces with claimed destruction of over ten armored vehicles (previous reporting). Russian forces claim liberation of Goncharovka (previous reporting). Claimed destruction of a "Ural" truck and a pickup truck on the Sudzha-Yunakovka road by Russian UAVs (previous reporting). Russian Ministry of Defense shows training of assault troops in the border area. Russian forces claim to be repelling numerous Ukrainian attacks on the Tetkino and Glushkovo directions, utilizing aviation with FABs, and detecting Ukrainian force accumulation. Reported firefights with Ukrainian DRGs. Authorities in Glushkovo district assisting with evacuation due to increased FPV drone attacks. Claimed deaths, injuries, and damage to homes and civilian infrastructure in the region. Specific incidents reported: drone attack on residential building in Leshchinovka, strike on power substation in Rylsk injuring two minors, FPV drone attack on car near Shchegolevka killing two women and injuring three civilians. (ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Рыбарь, Два майора)
Sumy Oblast (including Bilopillia, Vorozhba, Bilovody, Loknya, Basovka): Russian UAV from the vicinity heading towards Chernihiv Oblast (previous reporting). Russian UAVs on the south/center heading south (previous reporting). Russian UAVs on the east/south heading towards Poltava Oblast (previous reporting). Claimed Russian continued offensive actions on the Sumy direction towards Bilovody and Loknya from Zhuravka and Basovka. Claimed Russian forces are hunting for Ukrainian armored vehicles and pickup trucks with infantry in the border area where Ukraine is concentrating forces for attacks near Tetkino. Evacuation announced in Bilopillia and Vorozhba (previous reporting). (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Рыбарь, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Chernihiv Oblast: Russian UAV from the vicinity of Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast (previous reporting). Russian UAVs on the south/north heading south (previous reporting). Group of Russian UAVs from Sumy Oblast heading towards Chernihiv Oblast reported (previous reporting). (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна)
Poltava Oblast (including Myrhorod): Russian UAV heading southwest (previous reporting). Russian UAVs on the south/north heading south (previous reporting). Russian UAVs on the east/south of Sumy Oblast heading towards Poltava Oblast (previous reporting). Warning issued for Poltava and Myrhorod regarding approaching strike UAVs (previous reporting). Russian UAV on Poltava Oblast heading southwest. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (including Pavlohrad, Dnipro): Russian UAV on the west of Kharkiv Oblast heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (previous reporting). Russian UAV in the direction of Pavlohrad (previous reporting). Threat of strike UAVs announced for Кіровоградська область (previous reporting). Strike UAVs heading towards Dnipro. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна)
Cherkasy Oblast (including Zvenyhorodskyi district): Russian UAV heading southwest (previous reporting). Threat of strike UAVs for Черкаська область announced (previous reporting). Russian UAV in Cherkasy Oblast heading southwest (previous reporting). Threat of strike UAVs announced for Zvenyhorodskyi district. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Kirovohrad Oblast: Threat of strike UAVs announced (previous reporting). (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Zaporizhzhia Front (including Mali Shcherbaki, Mala Tokmachka): Russian paratroopers claim to have advanced west of Mali Shcherbaki, clearing a difficult forest belt. Russian forces claim to have driven the enemy out of a brick factory near Mala Tokmachka using drones and artillery. (Два майора)
Kherson Direction (including Aleshki, Veliki Kopani, Kakhovka, Nova Kakhovka, Dniepryany, Zabarino, Kairy, Kazachyi Laheri, Korsunka, Obryvki, Proletarka, Sagi): Settlements under Ukrainian attack. Two civilian injuries reported. (Два майора)
Moscow and Moscow Oblast (Russia): Russian authorities claim 19 drones targeting Moscow were shot down overnight. Temporary restrictions at Domodedovo and Zhukovsky airports were lifted (previous reporting). Reported impacts to Vnukovo airport (previous reporting). (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, Два майора, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Voronezh Oblast (Russia): Russian forces claim at least 18 UAVs were detected and destroyed by air defense and electronic warfare systems over the region overnight. Some damage from falling debris reported. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Два майора, ТАСС)
Saratov Oblast (Russia): Temporary restrictions at the airport were lifted (previous reporting). (ТАСС)
Volgograd Oblast (Russia): Temporary restrictions at the airport were lifted (previous reporting). (ТАСС)
Ivanovo Oblast (Russia): Temporary restrictions at the airport were lifted. (ТАСС)
Kaluga Oblast (Russia): Temporary restrictions at the airport were lifted. (ТАСС)
Nizhny Novgorod Oblast (Russia): Temporary restrictions at the airport were lifted. (ТАСС)
Yaroslavl Oblast (Russia): Temporary restrictions at the airport were lifted. (ТАСС)
Samara Oblast (Russia): Temporary restrictions at the airport were lifted (previous reporting). (ТАСС)
Kazan (Tatarstan, Russia): Temporary restrictions imposed at the airport (previous reporting). (ТАСС)
Nizhnekamsk (Tatarstan, Russia): Temporary restrictions imposed at the airport (previous reporting). (ТАСС)
Sudzha-Yunakovka road (Kursk Oblast, Russia): Claimed destruction of Ukrainian "Ural" truck and pickup truck by Russian UAVs (previous reporting). (Colonelcassad)
Goncharovka (Kursk Oblast, Russia): Russian Ministry of Defense claims liberation of the settlement (previous reporting). (ТАСС)
Dagestan (Russia): Reported clash with "terrorists" resulting in police casualties (previous reporting). (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Sverdlovsk Oblast (Russia): Gas explosion reported in a residential building with one person hospitalized (previous reporting). (ТАСС)
Black Sea: Absence of Russian "Kalibr" missile carriers reported by Ukrainian Naval Forces (previous reporting). (РБК-Україна)
Azov Sea: Absence of Russian "Kalibr" missile carriers reported by Ukrainian Naval Forces (previous reporting). (РБК-Україна)
Dnipro (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Strike UAVs heading towards the city. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Zvenyhorodskyi district (Cherkasy Oblast): Threat of strike UAVs announced. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Uspenovka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian "Center" grouping claims to have occupied the settlement. (Два майора)
Novolexandrivka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian "Center" grouping claims to have entered the settlement. (Два майора)
Bohodyr (Donetsk Oblast): Russian "Vostok" grouping claims the start of the battle for the settlement. (Два майора)
Otradnoe (Donetsk Oblast): Russian forces claim to have occupied a height near the settlement. (Два майора)
Fedorovka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian forces claim to have cleared three forest belts and taken two dominant heights near the settlement. (Два майора)
Belgorod Oblast (Russia): Subjected to daily Ukrainian attacks impacting civilians and infrastructure. (Два майора)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Massive and prolonged Russian drone attack on Kharkiv with 20 confirmed strikes and reported impacts across multiple districts, resulting in damage and 4 injured civilians. Continued widespread Russian drone activity across numerous Ukrainian oblasts (Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad) with detailed and updated trajectories provided, including new areas of threat (Zvenyhorodskyi district) and specific targets (Dnipro). Warnings issued for Poltava, Myrhorod, and Kramatorsk regarding approaching strike UAVs (previous reporting). Russian authorities claim significant interceptions of Ukrainian drones targeting Moscow (19 downed) and Voronezh Oblast (at least 18 downed) overnight with some damage on the ground. Russian UAVs claim destruction of Ukrainian military vehicles in Kursk Oblast. Claimed Russian forces are hunting for Ukrainian armored vehicles and pickup trucks with infantry in the Sumy border area. Russian forces claim extensive use of FPV drones by the enemy on the Zaporizhzhia front. Russian forces claim to have used drones in conjunction with artillery to drive the enemy out of a brick factory near Mala Tokmachka. Woman injured by UAV strike in Horlivka. (РБК-Україна, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Рыбарь, Два майора)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Launches of KABs by Russian tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast confirmed (previous reporting). Russian forces claim to be utilizing aviation with FABs with UMPK against Ukrainian forces attempting attacks in Kursk Oblast. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Два майора)
Naval Activity: Ukrainian Naval Forces report the absence of Russian "Kalibr" missile carriers in the Black and Azov Seas (previous reporting). (РБК-Україна)
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Heavy artillery shelling continues on numerous fronts (previous reporting). Russian forces claim to be using artillery to counter Ukrainian attempts to breach defenses near Tetkino. Russian forces claim to have used artillery in conjunction with drones to drive the enemy out of a brick factory near Mala Tokmachka. Settlements on the Kherson direction and in the DPR subjected to shelling and drone attacks. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Russian President Putin's Statements and Actions: Congratulations to WWII veterans with postcards for Victory Day. (ТАСС)
Russian Information Operations: Promotion of claimed police casualties in Dagestan as heroes (previous reporting). Reporting on routine domestic issues (previous reporting). Claiming liberation of territory and destruction of Ukrainian military assets (previous reporting). Showcasing military training. Providing daily video summaries with Russian perspectives (previous reporting). (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Полиция Хабаровского края, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Рыбарь, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Fighterbomber) Reporting on international diplomatic activities (US-Iran nuclear talks) (previous reporting). (ТАСС) Celebrating Victory Day with historical quizzes and videos. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА) Detailed reports from military bloggers highlighting claimed Russian successes and Ukrainian losses across various fronts. (Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны) Highlighting the impact of Ukrainian attacks on civilians in Russian and occupied territories. (Два майора)
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's Statements (Previous Reporting): Comments on the overnight Russian attacks, the scale of drone usage, and reiteration of Ukraine's conditions for a real ceasefire.
Ukrainian Information Operations: Commemorating Infantry Day and highlighting the role and sacrifices of infantry. (Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України)
International Relations: Reporting on potential US-Iran nuclear talks (previous reporting). (ТАСС)
Military Aid Discussions: Greece has explicitly denied plans to supply Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine (previous reporting).
Peace Talks and Ceasefire Conditions: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy reiterated Ukraine's readiness for a "sustainable peace" and a conditional ceasefire (30 days of full silence) with Czech officials, seeking support for pressure on Russia (previous reporting).
European Integration: Ukraine is ready to open the first negotiation clusters for EU accession talks and is seeking support from the Czech Republic for this process (previous reporting).

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security Incident: Reported clash with "terrorists" in Dagestan resulting in police casualties (previous reporting). (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Infrastructure Impact: Temporary restrictions on airport operations in multiple cities due to drone attacks, with some lifted and new ones imposed. Damage reported in Voronezh Oblast from falling drone debris. (ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Два майора)
Military Readiness and Propaganda: Showcasing training of assault troops in the Kursk border area. Daily video summaries from military bloggers. Routine content from military channels. (ТАСС, Рыбарь, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Fighterbomber) Victory Day quizzes and videos from military bloggers. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Domestic News: Gas explosion reported in Sverdlovsk Oblast with one person hospitalized (previous reporting). (ТАСС) Police report on a fraud case in Khabarovsk. (Полиция Хабаровского края)
Impact of Ukrainian Attacks: Claimed deaths, injuries, and damage to homes and civilian infrastructure in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts due to Ukrainian FPV drone attacks and shelling. (Два майора)

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated):

Public Morale and Support for Military: Commemorating Infantry Day in Ukraine. (Десантно-штурмові війсь Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України)
Humanitarian Situation: Increased civilian casualties (4 injured) and widespread damage to residential and commercial infrastructure in Kharkiv due to the massive drone attack. Damage reported in Voronezh Oblast from falling drone debris. Gas explosion in Sverdlovsk Oblast with one person hospitalized (previous reporting). Claimed deaths, injuries, and damage to homes and civilian infrastructure in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts due to Ukrainian attacks. Two civilian injuries reported on the Kherson direction due to Ukrainian attacks. Woman injured by UAV strike in Horlivka. Man injured by detonation of unexploded cluster submunition in Dmytrivka village. (РБК-Україна, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, Два майора)

Other Information:

Analysis of Russian Intentions: Analysis from ISW suggests potential for a major Russian offensive in Donetsk Oblast targeting the Toretsk and eastern Pokrovsk directions with specific strategic objectives (previous reporting). (РБК-Україна)

Potential Future Developments

Continued and Potentially Intensified Russian Aerial Attacks on Kharkiv and Other Regions: The massive and prolonged nature of the recent drone attack on Kharkiv, the increased casualties, and the numerous ongoing drone movements reported across various oblasts, including new areas of threat like Zvenyhorodskyi district and a focus on Dnipro, indicate that Russia is likely to continue and potentially intensify its aerial campaign. Expect further waves of drone attacks targeting Kharkiv and other areas, potentially leading to more casualties and damage. The expansion of threat announcements and specific targeting suggest adapting tactics and areas of focus.
Sustained Russian Offensive Efforts on Key Ground Axes: Despite the heavy focus on aerial attacks, the reported KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast and the ISW analysis on potential Russian offensive operations in the Toretsk and eastern Pokrovsk directions, along with Russian claims of advances on multiple fronts (Konstantinovka, Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy border region), indicate that ground combat will remain intense on key fronts, particularly in Donetsk. Expect continued Russian attempts to gain ground in these areas, potentially leading to significant engagements. The claimed start of the battle for Bohodyr on the Southern Donetsk direction suggests this is a current focal point.
Continued Contested Situation and Cross-Border Activity in Kursk and Sumy: The reports of continued Ukrainian attempts and Russian counter-actions in the Kursk border region, and claimed Russian offensive actions and hunting of Ukrainian forces in the Sumy border region, suggest these areas will remain active, with both sides attempting to achieve limited objectives or disrupt enemy operations. Expect further reports of engagements and potential shifts in control of small settlements or key routes, and continued humanitarian impact on border communities.
Further Ukrainian Deep Strikes and Their Impact on Russian Infrastructure: The ongoing impact of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian airports, despite some restrictions being lifted, indicates Ukraine's continued capability and intent to conduct deep strikes. Expect further attempts by Ukraine to target military and potentially strategic infrastructure within Russia, which could lead to renewed disruptions and require Russia to adapt its air defense strategies.
Continued Focus on Information Operations, Especially Around Victory Day: Both sides will likely continue to leverage information operations to shape narratives, particularly in the lead-up to Victory Day. Russia is likely to continue emphasizing its military successes, highlighting claimed Ukrainian "atrocities," and promoting narratives related to internal security, national pride, and historical interpretations. Ukraine will likely continue to highlight the impact of Russian attacks on civilians and their own defensive efforts and honor their military personnel.
Potential for Increased Naval Activity: While the absence of "Kalibr" carriers in the Black and Azov Seas is a positive sign, their potential return and deployment could quickly reintroduce a significant missile threat from the sea. Monitoring naval activity will remain crucial.
Ongoing Humanitarian Impact: The confirmed casualties and damage in Kharkiv and the reported damage and casualties in Russian border regions and occupied territories underscore the continued human cost of the conflict. Expect further reports of civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure as military operations continue.

Operational Summary

The immediate operational picture is dominated by a severe and prolonged Russian drone attack on Kharkiv, resulting in increased civilian casualties and significant damage. Widespread Russian drone activity continues across numerous other Ukrainian oblasts, with updated trajectories and new areas of threat identified, including a focus on Dnipro and the Cherkasy region. Russian tactical aviation is actively employing guided aerial bombs on Donetsk Oblast. Ground combat remains intense, particularly in the Kursk and Sumy border regions where Ukrainian forces are reportedly attempting attacks and Russian forces claim success in repelling attacks, destroying Ukrainian vehicles, and conducting offensive actions. Russian military bloggers are providing detailed claims of advances on multiple fronts, including Konstantinovka, Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian deep strikes continue to impact Russian infrastructure, with temporary airport restrictions persisting in several cities. The reported absence of Russian "Kalibr" missile carriers in the Black and Azov Seas is a potentially significant development. Information operations remain a critical element of the conflict, with both sides actively promoting their narratives, particularly around the upcoming Victory Day. The humanitarian impact of the conflict is clearly evidenced by the casualties and damage in Kharkiv and reported casualties in Russian border regions and occupied territories. Ukrainian forces are observing Infantry Day.

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on the provided information and should not be considered exhaustive or definitive. Real-time military intelligence is constantly evolving, and independent verification of all claims is crucial. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report