Sitrep 2025-05-06 00:31:36

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 5, 2025, 23:31 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment remains characterized by intense ground combat across multiple fronts, persistent Russian aerial and drone activity, and ongoing deep strikes by both sides. The information war continues, heavily influenced by the approaching May 9th Victory Day and featuring competing narratives surrounding military successes, casualties, and the morale of opposing forces. Recent information underscores continued Russian pressure in eastern and southern Ukraine, new details on fighting in border regions, and diplomatic commentary on the conflict. New messages provide further details on active combat near Sieversk and claimed Russian advances in Hryhorivka, Ukrainian adaptations using Humvees with air-to-air missiles, claimed Russian success in repelling a Ukrainian assault near Tetkino with the destruction of Ukrainian equipment and capture of prisoners, claimed Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian territory with reported damage to a naval radar system and civilian casualties, continued Ukrainian drone activity targeting Russian border regions, Israeli aerial operations in Yemen, internal Russian issues related to legal proceedings, political commentary, and public support for the military, diplomatic friction between Ukraine and Hungary regarding EU membership, ongoing discussions on international military aid and Russian modernization efforts, reports on the demographic situation in Ukraine, and continued information operations from both sides.

Significant updates in the past few hours highlight:

Continued Intense Ground Combat: While not detailed in the latest messages in terms of overall engagements, previous reports of intense fighting on the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions remain relevant. New reports indicate active combat operations in the area of Sieversk and Hryhorivka. Сливочный каприз reports active combat and a Russian assault with light motorized infantry in Hryhorivka, claiming a storming group is in the central part of the settlement under Ukrainian fire and that Russian forces have advanced over 600 meters along the Seversky Donets river in Hryhorivka. This indicates continued localized Russian offensive actions. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video showing operators of the 3rd Brigade of Operational Purpose ("Spartan") of the National Guard repelling a Russian assault on the Pokrovsk direction. The video reportedly shows a Russian soldier becoming entangled in concertina wire and then being eliminated by an FPV drone. The accompanying text suggests such videos should be shown to those considering joining Russian forces for financial gain. This highlights the continued intense fighting on the Pokrovsk direction and the effective use of FPV drones by Ukrainian defenders, as well as Ukrainian efforts to use battlefield footage for information operations. Kotsnews analyzes the situation in Kursk Oblast near Tetkino, considering three potential scenarios for Ukrainian actions, including a continuation of frontal assaults, establishing a bridgehead for further advances, or using the current activity as a diversion for a main strike elsewhere. He expresses concern for the border section adjoining Rylsky and Khomutovsky districts and notes the proximity of Russian forces in Donbas to the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (less than three kilometers). This provides a Russian military blogger's perspective on potential Ukrainian intentions and Russian concerns in the border regions and highlights the proximity of fighting in Donbas to administrative borders.
Persistent Russian Aerial and Drone Activity: While not explicitly highlighted in the very latest messages, previous reports of widespread Russian drone and artillery activity remain pertinent. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in eastern Kharkiv Oblast. This indicates continued Russian use of guided aerial bombs in frontline areas. Филолог в засаде analyzes the use of Russian guided aerial bombs (KABs) on the Konstantinovka direction, noting that Ukrainian sources report a sharp increase in their use and fiber-optic controlled drones targeting logistics routes. He states that the effectiveness of KABs with UMPK guidance systems has improved, with around 60% hitting their intended targets. This highlights the increased and improved use of KABs by Russian forces, which are having a significant impact on Ukrainian logistics. The mention of fiber-optic controlled drones suggests a potential Russian adaptation to Ukrainian electronic warfare.
Ukrainian Deep Strikes and Damage to Russian Military Assets: Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video from the 413th Separate Battalion of Unmanned Systems ("Raid") claiming the destruction of a "Zaslon" naval radar system mounted on a wheeled chassis using an FPV drone. They note that this radar can detect up to 200 targets at a distance of 300 km and claim this is the first video confirmation of such a target being hit. This suggests continued Ukrainian efforts to target Russian military infrastructure and high-value assets. STERNENKO shares screenshots of messages indicating "Danger from UAVs" in multiple locations in Rostov Oblast (Chertkovo, Millerovo, Novoshakhtinsk, Gukovo, Matveev Kurgan) and "Danger from reactive UAVs" in Oryol Oblast, followed by a message from Оперативний ЗСУ stating "A whole flock of good drones flew to the swamps," implying a significant Ukrainian drone attack targeting Russian territory. The message from Оперативний ЗСУ "A whole flock of good drones flew to the swamps" strongly suggests a deliberate and significant Ukrainian drone operation targeting Russian territory ("swamps" is often used as a derogatory term for Russia). Два майора reports on the situation on the border of Kursk Oblast, claiming that during the day, Ukrainian forces made many efforts to enter the territory and used different methods. They claim the destruction of another Ukrainian IMR in the village of Pavlovka, Sumy Oblast, and several quad bikes with personnel (claiming 4 killed) and an IMR in the village of Budki, Sumy Oblast. They also share video footage claiming to show the destruction of a Ukrainian IMR on the outskirts of Pavlovka. This indicates continued Ukrainian efforts to conduct cross-border operations and Russian claims of success in repelling them and inflicting casualties and equipment losses in Sumy Oblast.
Adapting to Unmanned Systems in Warfare: Старше Эдды (citing @epoddubny) reports that fighters of "Azov" have equipped their Humvees with launchers capable of firing short-range air-to-air missiles (R-73), noting that enemy pickups equipped with various weapon systems are common on the front, having migrated from the Middle East, and pose a serious threat as mobile fire points. This highlights Ukrainian tactical adaptation and the evolving nature of the battlefield, utilizing vehicles not typically equipped for air defense in this role. Оперативний ЗСУ's claim of destroying a naval radar with an FPV drone highlights the effectiveness of small unmanned systems against larger military assets and ongoing Ukrainian efforts to target Russian capabilities with drones. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА shares a video claiming to show Russian servicemen repelling an attack by unmanned boats ("Bekam"). The video reportedly shows a Bek with a surface-to-air missile (likely referring to a missile mounted on the USV). The message emphasizes the effectiveness of landing craft with machine guns against such targets and asserts that Russia has the means and specialists to combat Beks. This indicates continued Ukrainian attempts to utilize naval drones, potentially armed, and Russian efforts and claimed success in countering them. Kadyrov_95 shares a video claiming to show the "Vostok-AKHMAT" battalion destroying a Ukrainian mortar crew in Robotyne using a drone, highlighting the continued effective use of drones by Russian forces for targeting and destruction. Воин DV shares a video claiming a fearless drone operator from the 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment is accurately striking key enemy positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction, further emphasizing the importance of drones in current operations and Russian efforts to highlight the effectiveness of their drone operators. Филолог в засаде's analysis highlighting the increased use of Russian KABs with UMPK guidance systems and fiber-optic controlled drones targeting logistics reflects adaptation in Russian aerial tactics. Два майора shares a "frontline story" (likely fictional or anecdotal) about Russian forces improvising anti-drone defenses on vehicles using plastic basins and "secret paint" while waiting for official electronic warfare systems, suggesting awareness of the drone threat to vehicles and potential logistical delays in receiving official countermeasures. Kotsnews' analysis of the Tetkino situation highlights the continued use of drones by both sides ("Our dronovodov... are coping, but the pressure from the khokhol does not weaken").
International Political Commentary and Diplomacy: TASS reports that Orbán explained he went into conflict with Zelenskyy because he heard an undisguised threat in his words, referencing Zelenskyy's dissatisfaction with a Hungarian referendum on Ukraine's EU accession. «Зона СВО» reiterates Orbán's statement about the conflict with Zelenskyy and adds that Orbán stated no one has the right to tell Budapest what decision it can make regarding Ukraine's EU accession, and that he had avoided quarrels with Zelenskyy previously to preserve what could be preserved between the two neighboring countries. This highlights continued diplomatic friction between Ukraine and Hungary, particularly regarding Ukraine's path to EU membership. РБК-Україна also reports on Orbán's statements, noting his complaint about Zelenskyy wanting a "Ukrainian-friendly" government in Hungary and his assertion that "agents of Brussels" are also Zelenskyy's friends. This reinforces the narrative of perceived external interference in Hungarian internal affairs and opposition to Ukraine's EU integration. STERNENKO shares video of Trump commenting on the Nord Stream 2 pipelines, stating he thinks many people know who blew them up, and that he initially didn't allow their construction but Biden did. He also suggests that with current oil prices, the US is in a good position for a resolution and that both Russia and Ukraine want to settle the conflict. This adds another layer to the international political discourse surrounding the conflict and potential peace efforts, with Trump linking energy prices to the possibility of a resolution. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that Trump highly praised Russia's decision to announce a three-day ceasefire in Ukraine. This statement from Trump is likely to be interpreted differently by various parties and could influence the diplomatic landscape, especially given the ongoing intense fighting reported by Zelenskyy. TASS reports that the EU Commissioner from Hungary raised a procedural objection against the plan to stop importing gas from Russia, as reported by Politico. This indicates Hungary's continued stance on Russian energy imports impacting EU policy. Воин DV reports that the Czech President Pavel stated Ukraine will receive 1.8 million artillery shells by the end of 2025 within the "Czech initiative," and Trump may support a bill on 500% duties on countries buying Russian energy depending on Russia's "desire for peace." These reports from Воин DV (citing other sources) highlight continued international support for Ukraine and potential economic pressure on Russia linked to the conflict and peace prospects. Воин DV also reports on Orbán's statement about the decision on Ukraine's EU membership being up to the Hungarian people, and Hungary's Foreign Minister calling for a "respectful tone" from Ukraine. This further reinforces the diplomatic tension between Ukraine and Hungary. Воин DV reports that the US draft budget for 2026 includes over a trillion dollars for defense and 175 billion for security, with cuts to civilian programs. This provides insight into US defense spending priorities. TASS reports that Lavrov discussed rising tensions between India and Pakistan with the head of Pakistan's Foreign Ministry, with Moscow ready to assist in resolution. This indicates Russia's engagement in broader regional conflicts.
Information Operations and Narratives: Both sides continue active information campaigns.
- Басурин о главном shares a cartoon depicting European leaders heading towards Moscow, framed as a commentary on their political alignment. While the specific interpretation may vary, it's an example of visual information operation.
- Два майора shares a lengthy text and videos claiming that videos of Russian prisoners of war criticizing Russian command are fakes produced by Ukrainian intelligence and special forces under duress, providing specific examples and naming individuals. They emphasize the existence of Ukrainian "information warfare centers" and "information specialists" embedded with forward units, and describe alleged Ukrainian methods of torture and coercion to produce these videos. This is a clear Russian information operation aimed at discrediting Ukrainian claims of poor Russian troop morale or command issues and portraying Ukrainian intelligence as engaging in unethical practices.
- БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is conducting a fundraising effort for Ukrainian snipers, emphasizing their effectiveness and the strategic importance of their work in Donetsk Oblast, and offering a reward for the largest donation. This is a Ukrainian information operation aimed at garnering public support and resources for their military, highlighting the valor and effectiveness of specific units. The inclusion of photos of shot glasses made from shell casings from Bakhmut serves as a symbolic artifact of the conflict to incentivize donations.
- Филолог в засаде's analysis of Russian KAB use and drone technology can be seen as a form of military analysis shared within the Russian information space, acknowledging some Russian capabilities while also highlighting perceived weaknesses and suggesting areas for improvement.
- STERNENKO shares Trump's commentary on Nord Stream 2 and potential peace, which can be interpreted as a dissemination of international political discourse relevant to the conflict.
- Colonelcassad shares a video claiming a mass surrender of a Ukrainian unit (21st Mechanized Brigade) near Goptarovka, naming the soldiers and claiming it was facilitated by an "unique operation of the Northerners" with whom they had contact. This is a clear Russian information operation aimed at showcasing Ukrainian losses and demoralization, highlighting Russian success, and potentially promoting specific Russian units or methods ("the Northerners"). The promise of publishing detailed interrogations further emphasizes the propaganda aspect.
- Два майора shares videos and text claiming the destruction of Ukrainian equipment and personnel during cross-border attempts in Sumy Oblast, specifically mentioning IMRs and quad bikes and providing video footage of a destroyed IMR. This is a Russian information operation aimed at highlighting Ukrainian losses during their cross-border operations and claiming Russian success in repelling them.
- Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on Trump's positive assessment of Putin's ceasefire proposal, disseminating a statement from a key international figure that could be favorable to the Russian narrative.
- Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video of Ukrainian forces repelling a Russian assault on the Pokrovsk direction and suggests using it to deter potential Russian recruits. This is a clear Ukrainian information operation aimed at showcasing their defensive effectiveness and demoralizing the opponent.
- ASTRA reports on a student club in a Russian university celebrating the birthday of Kim Il Sung, the first president of North Korea, including speeches praising him and singing a Russian patriotic song in Russian and Korean. This highlights potential ideological shifts and growing ties between Russia and North Korea, potentially for information operation or propaganda purposes within Russia, emphasizing a perceived shared anti-Western stance or historical narrative.
- Два майора shares a "frontline story" (likely fictional or anecdotal) about Russian forces improvising anti-drone defenses on vehicles using plastic basins and "secret paint" while waiting for official electronic warfare systems, suggesting awareness of the drone threat to vehicles and potential logistical delays in receiving official countermeasures. This particular message, newly introduced, subtly suggests potential logistical challenges or resourcefulness within the Russian military while framing a humorous, anecdotal narrative.
- Старше Эдды (citing @epoddubny) and Kotsnews highlight the arming of Ukrainian Humvees with R-73 air-to-air missiles, framing them as a "serious threat" and indicating Ukrainian tactical adaptations from "the Middle East." This likely serves to emphasize the capabilities of the Ukrainian military and justify Russian countermeasures.
- Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares video claiming the repelling of a Ukrainian offensive on Tetkino, with the destruction of a Ukrainian engineering vehicle (IMR) and its crew, portraying it as a "failure of the offensive." This is a clear Russian information operation highlighting claimed defensive success and Ukrainian losses.
- Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares a video and photo captioned "London. Glory to Ukraine and its warriors," accompanied by visuals of a ceremonial event, including military personnel and a Ukrainian flag. This is a Ukrainian information operation highlighting international support and recognition.
- Рыбарь promotes a new film "Blood Group" about the Vyritz concentration camp during WWII for the 80th anniversary of Victory, framing it as necessary to prevent the rewriting of history and ensure memory. This connects historical narratives to current political messaging and the importance of memory.
- Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a sarcastic video captioned "Bright future burst into Donetsk!" showing ATMs appearing in some places after eleven years of occupation, highlighting the perceived lack of development or progress under Russian control and using ATMs as a symbol of basic services. They also share a photo of a Russian news report about temporary internet shutdowns in Rostov and Belgorod Oblasts near the border, with a sarcastic caption about needing to turn off electricity and water too for reliability, framing the shutdowns as a sign of Russian anxiety and incompetence and suggesting more drastic measures are needed for "reliability."
- Colonelcassad shares graphics and analysis on the demographic decline of Ukraine, citing various estimates and highlighting the impact on the economy, military sphere, and national stability. This is a Russian information operation focusing on perceived Ukrainian weaknesses.
- Z комитет + карта СВО shares a military situation map of the South Donetsk direction with detailed markings of territorial control, settlements, and defensive structures. This is a form of military information dissemination from a pro-Russian source.
- АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА shares a video and commentary claiming Russian success in repelling unmanned boat attacks, emphasizing Russian capabilities and preparedness. This is a Russian information operation highlighting their effectiveness in countering Ukrainian naval drone efforts.
- Kotsnews analyzes the situation in Kursk Oblast near Tetkino, discussing potential Ukrainian actions and Russian concerns. This is a Russian military blogger's analysis providing insights into Russian perspectives and information being disseminated internally.
- Alex Parker Returns shares a video and commentary about alleged Israeli aerial operations in Yemen, framing it as a "special military operation" and a response to Houthi attacks on Israeli airports, and expressing envy of Israel's ability to conduct such operations, subtly criticizing Russia's response to perceived threats. He also shares videos of explosions, framing them as potential evidence of military activity. Alex Parker Returns also shares content that appears to be online gambling advertisements, which is not directly military but reflects the content shared by this source.
- ASTRA reports on a legal case in Moscow where a man was fined for publishing content deemed to demonstrate "Nazi symbolism" and "LGBT propaganda," highlighting internal Russian legal issues and their connection to politically charged topics.
Developments in Military Structure and Capabilities (Ukraine): Старше Эдды (citing @epoddubny) reports on "Azov" equipping Humvees with air-to-air missiles, indicating tactical adaptation and leveraging existing platforms for new roles. Оперативний ЗСУ's claim of destroying a naval radar with an FPV drone highlights the increasing capability and strategic targeting of Ukrainian drone units. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is conducting a fundraising effort for Ukrainian snipers, highlighting their specialized skills and importance in specific areas like Donetsk Oblast.
Developments in Military Structure and Capabilities (Russia): Два майора posts about Romania's intention to acquire 246 new infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), framing it with the question "EVEN Romania is modernizing, and what about Russia?" and detailing the procurement process and potential suppliers. This indicates a focus within Russian military circles on the modernization efforts of neighboring countries and implicitly raises questions about Russia's own modernization pace or priorities. Филолог в засаде's analysis highlighting the improved effectiveness of Russian KABs with UMPK guidance systems suggests ongoing efforts to enhance existing capabilities.
Military Aid and Logistics: Воин DV reports that the Czech President Pavel stated Ukraine will receive 1.8 million artillery shells by the end of 2025 within the "Czech initiative." This highlights continued international support and efforts to address Ukraine's ammunition needs. Два майора's post about Romania's IFV procurement highlights modernization efforts within NATO and potential future military capabilities near Russia's borders. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's fundraising effort for Ukrainian snipers underscores the continued reliance on public support for acquiring specific military equipment. Два майора's "frontline story" about improvising anti-drone defenses while waiting for official systems might implicitly suggest logistical challenges in the timely delivery of necessary equipment to Russian forces.
Casualty Reports: Дневник Десантника claims all "Nazis" (Ukrainian forces) were killed ("200") in a drone strike near Demidovka. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims the destruction of a Ukrainian engineering vehicle and its crew near Tetkino. Colonelcassad claims the destruction of some Ukrainian soldiers and the capture of others during an attempted breakthrough near Goptarovka. Два майора claims 4 Ukrainian soldiers were killed during cross-border attempts in Sumy Oblast. These are Russian claims of Ukrainian casualties. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video showing a Russian soldier being eliminated by a drone on the Pokrovsk direction.
Internal Russian Issues: ASTRA reports on a legal case in Moscow regarding charges related to "Nazi symbolism" and "LGBT propaganda," highlighting the application of politically motivated laws. ASTRA's report on the student club celebrating Kim Il Sung's birthday suggests potential ideological shifts and growing ties with North Korea. Два майора's "frontline story" about improvising anti-drone defenses while waiting for official systems hints at potential logistical delays. TASS reports that the EU Commissioner from Hungary raised a procedural objection against the plan to stop importing gas from Russia, which is an external political issue impacting Russia. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦's sarcastic commentary on internet shutdowns in Russian border regions suggests perceived incompetence or anxiety within the Russian administration. Colonelcassad's analysis of Ukraine's demographic decline focuses on perceived Ukrainian internal weaknesses. Два майора's post about Romania's military modernization implicitly raises questions about Russia's own efforts. Kotsnews' analysis of the Tetkino situation provides insight into Russian military blogger perspectives and concerns regarding border security. Два майора's report on alleged Ukrainian fabrication of POW videos is a significant internal messaging effort within Russia.
Demographic Analysis: Colonelcassad shares graphics and commentary on the significant demographic decline of Ukraine since 1991, with projections for 2025 based on various estimates, and highlights the challenges this poses for the economy, military, and national stability. This provides a Russian perspective on a long-term strategic issue facing Ukraine.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Pokrovsk Direction: Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video showing operators of the 3rd Brigade of Operational Purpose ("Spartan") repelling a Russian assault here, including a Russian soldier being eliminated by an FPV drone. This confirms continued intense fighting on this axis.
Demidovka Area: Дневник Десантника claims Russian drone strikes by the 1st Motorized Rifle Battalion of the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade were successful against a Ukrainian group, claiming all were killed.
Sieversk - Hryhorivka Area: Сливочный каприз reports active combat operations and a Russian assault with light motorized infantry in Hryhorivka, claiming Russian forces are in the central part under Ukrainian fire and have advanced over 600 meters along the Seversky Donets river.
Tetkino Area (Kursk Oblast, Russia): Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims Russian forces (217th regiment of the Ivanovo Airborne Division) repelled a Ukrainian offensive, destroying a Ukrainian engineering vehicle (IMR) and its crew during an evacuation attempt. Kotsnews analyzes potential future Ukrainian actions in this area, highlighting the ongoing nature of the fighting and Russian concerns.
Goptarovka Area: Colonelcassad claims a mass surrender of a Ukrainian unit (21st Mechanized Brigade) here on May 2nd during an attempted breakthrough towards Goptarovka.
Pavlovka, Sumy Oblast (Ukraine): Два майора claims the destruction of a Ukrainian IMR here during Ukrainian cross-border attempts, providing video evidence.
Budki, Sumy Oblast (Ukraine): Два майора claims the destruction of several Ukrainian quad bikes with personnel (4 killed) and an IMR here during Ukrainian cross-border attempts.
Konstantinovka Direction: Филолог в засаде reports increased Russian use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) and fiber-optic controlled drones targeting logistics routes here.
Robotyne Area (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Kadyrov_95 shares a video claiming the "Vostok-AKHMAT" battalion destroyed a Ukrainian mortar crew here using a drone. This indicates continued fighting in this contested area.
Zaporizhzhia Direction: Воин DV shares a video claiming a fearless drone operator from the 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment is accurately striking key enemy positions here.
Rostov Oblast (Russia): STERNENKO shares warnings about "Danger from UAVs" in multiple locations including Chertkovo, Millerovo, Novoshakhtinsk, Gukovo, and Matveev Kurgan, implying Ukrainian drone activity.
Oryol Oblast (Russia): STERNENKO shares a warning about "Danger from reactive UAVs," implying Ukrainian drone activity.
Black Sea: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА shares a video claiming Russian servicemen repelled an attack by unmanned boats, suggesting continued Ukrainian naval drone activity. Оперативний ЗСУ claims the destruction of a Russian naval radar system using an FPV drone, implying activity in the Black Sea area.
Donetsk Oblast: Kotsnews notes the proximity of Russian forces in Donbas to the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (less than three kilometers). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is fundraising for Ukrainian snipers operating in Donetsk Oblast.
Yemen: Alex Parker Returns reports alleged Israeli aerial operations ("special military operation" named "City of Ants") involving over 40 fighter jets, with massive missile and bomb strikes, framed as a response to Houthi attacks on Israeli airports.
Moscow (Russia): ASTRA reports on a legal case regarding charges related to "Nazi symbolism" and "LGBT propaganda." ASTRA reports on a student club celebrating Kim Il Sung's birthday in a university here.
Chelyabinsk (Russia): ASTRA reports on a student club celebrating Kim Il Sung's birthday in a university here.
Hungary: Continued diplomatic friction with Ukraine regarding EU membership.
India/Pakistan: Rising tensions are reported, with Russia offering assistance.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Дневник Десантника claims Russian drone strikes near Demidovka were successful, resulting in Ukrainian casualties. Оперативний ЗСУ claims the destruction of a Russian naval radar system using an FPV drone. STERNENKO shares warnings about "Danger from UAVs" in Rostov Oblast and "Danger from reactive UAVs" in Oryol Oblast, implying Ukrainian drone activity targeting Russian territory. Оперативний ЗСУ's message "A whole flock of good drones flew to the swamps" strongly suggests a deliberate and significant Ukrainian drone operation targeting Russian territory ("swamps" is often used as a derogatory term for Russia). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА shares a video claiming Russian servicemen repelled an attack by unmanned boats (Beks), implying continued Ukrainian naval drone activity. Kotsnews mentions the involvement of Russian "dronovodov" in repelling Ukrainian attacks near Tetkino, highlighting the continued use of drones by both sides in ground combat. Kadyrov_95 shares a video claiming destruction of a Ukrainian mortar crew in Robotyne using a drone. Воин DV shares a video claiming a fearless drone operator from the 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment is accurately striking key enemy positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video of Ukrainian forces repelling a Russian assault on the Pokrovsk direction and a Russian soldier being eliminated by an FPV drone. Филолог в засаде analyzes the increased use of Russian fiber-optic controlled drones targeting logistics. Два майора shares a "frontline story" about improvising anti-drone defenses while waiting for official systems.
Artillery: While not explicitly detailed in the latest messages, previous reports of heavy Russian artillery use remain relevant, particularly in areas like Nikopol district. Сливочный каприз reports a Russian storming group in Hryhorivka is under Ukrainian fire, implying Ukrainian artillery or other direct fire is being used.
Missile Strikes: Alex Parker Returns reports alleged massive missile and bomb strikes by Israeli Air Force in Yemen. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by enemy tactical aviation in eastern Kharkiv Oblast. Филолог в засаде analyzes the increased and improved use of Russian KABs on the Konstantinovka direction, noting their effectiveness.
Aviation: Alex Parker Returns reports alleged Israeli aerial operations in Yemen involving over 40 fighter jets. Старше Эдды (citing @epoddubny) reports on "Azov" equipping Humvees with air-to-air missiles (R-73), indicating a Ukrainian adaptation to target Russian aircraft. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by enemy tactical aviation in eastern Kharkiv Oblast.
Naval Activity: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА shares a video claiming Russian servicemen repelled an attack by unmanned boats (Beks) in the Black Sea, suggesting continued Ukrainian attempts to target Russian naval assets. The video reportedly shows a Bek with a surface-to-air missile mounted, indicating potential new capabilities for Ukrainian naval drones. Оперативний ЗСУ claims the destruction of a Russian naval radar system using an FPV drone, implying activity in the Black Sea area.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Ukraine-Hungary Relations: Orbán explains his conflict with Zelenskyy stemmed from a perceived threat regarding Ukraine's EU accession and asserts Hungary's right to decide on this matter. Hungary's Foreign Minister calls for a "respectful tone" from Ukraine. РБК-Україна also reports on Orbán's statements, highlighting his complaint about Zelenskyy wanting a "Ukrainian-friendly" government in Hungary and his view of "agents of Brussels" as Zelenskyy's friends.
US Politics: TASS reports Trump claimed he knows who blew up "Nord Stream" and denies Russian responsibility. STERNENKO shares video of Trump commenting on Nord Stream 2 and suggesting both sides want to settle the conflict. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that Trump highly praised Russia's decision to announce a three-day ceasefire in Ukraine. Воин DV reports Trump may support a bill on 500% duties on countries buying Russian energy depending on Russia's "desire for peace." Воин DV reports the US draft budget for 2026 includes over a trillion dollars for defense and 175 billion for security.
EU Politics: The EU Commissioner from Hungary raised a procedural objection against the plan to stop importing gas from Russia.
International Support for Ukraine: Воин DV reports Czech President Pavel stated Ukraine will receive 1.8 million artillery shells by the end of 2025 within the "Czech initiative." БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС is conducting a fundraising effort for Ukrainian snipers, highlighting international support through public donations (including PayPal).
Middle East: Alex Parker Returns reports alleged Israeli aerial operations in Yemen in response to Houthi attacks on Israeli airports. TASS reports Lavrov discussed rising tensions between India and Pakistan with the head of Pakistan's Foreign Ministry, with Moscow ready to assist.
Information Warfare: Russian sources are using claims of Ukrainian casualties and failures (Demidovka, Tetkino, Goptarovka, Sumy border) and perceived Ukrainian weaknesses (demographics, alleged intelligence manipulation of POWs) for propaganda. Ukrainian sources are highlighting international support (London event), perceived Russian incompetence (Donetsk ATMs, internet shutdowns, improvised defenses), showcasing their military adaptations (Humvees with missiles, drone successes, sniper effectiveness), and using battlefield footage to demoralize potential Russian recruits. Russian sources are also leveraging historical narratives (WWII film) and highlighting perceived threats from Ukraine (security concerns in Moscow, alleged terrorist planning). Diplomatic exchanges and statements from international figures are also utilized in these campaigns. The Russian claims about Ukrainian intelligence fabricating POW videos are a direct counter-narrative to any Ukrainian efforts to highlight Russian troop morale issues. The ASTRA report on the celebration of Kim Il Sung's birthday in a Russian university could be used by both sides – by Russia to show ideological alignment, and by Ukraine/West to highlight concerning ties.

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):