Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 5, 2025, 15:00 UTC)

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Updated Situation

The operational environment continues to be marked by intense ground combat on several key axes, persistent Russian aerial and drone activity, and targeted Ukrainian deep strikes. The Ukrainian attempt to breach the border in Kursk Oblast remains a significant point of contention, with new information providing insights into their tactics and Russian resistance. Ground engagements are reported with high intensity on several key axes, particularly the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions, where Russian forces claim continued advances. Reports from the Robotyne area on the Orikhiv direction indicate ongoing defensive efforts by Ukrainian forces and targeted Russian strikes utilizing drones. The information space remains heavily contested, with both sides engaging in propaganda and leveraging historical narratives, particularly in the lead-up to May 9th. Diplomatic and political maneuvering continues, alongside internal issues and information operations by both sides. Discussions on international military aid are ongoing, including reports of potential additional Patriot systems for Ukraine.

New information provides a more detailed picture of the ongoing Ukrainian cross-border operation in Kursk Oblast, including claims of breaching defensive lines and utilizing mine-clearing vehicles and quad bikes. Ukrainian sources continue to present the Kursk operation as successful in preventing Russian offensives elsewhere. Intense ground fighting is reported on the Orikhiv direction, with claimed Russian success in destroying a Ukrainian mortar crew using drones. Information operations remain active, including Russian propaganda showcasing alleged Ukrainian leadership failures and promoting nationalistic narratives, while Ukrainian sources highlight Russian losses and internal issues within occupied territories. Discussions regarding international military aid continue, with reports of potential additional Patriot systems for Ukraine. Civilian casualties in Kursk Oblast due to Ukrainian FPV drone attacks have been confirmed. The arrival of a new head of the US Embassy in Kyiv is a notable diplomatic development. Reports of a "pro-Russian" candidate leading in the first round of the Romanian presidential elections indicate potential shifts in the regional political landscape. Civilian infrastructure projects in Zaporizhzhia Oblast continue despite the conflict. Fundraising efforts by military units on both sides underscore the ongoing need for resources. New information from the Kursk Oblast border area confirms continued Ukrainian attempts to breach defenses near Tyotkino, utilizing armored vehicles and facing Russian resistance including air support and drone strikes, with both sides reporting equipment losses. A new ballistic missile threat alert has been issued for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Reports of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia planning a joint defense line project on their borders with Russia and Belarus indicate a long-term strategic shift in response to the current security environment. DeepState reports continued Russian advances near the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts, specifically in the areas of Kotlyarivka, Novoselky, and Novodarivka. Ukrainian sources are highlighting the effectiveness of their infantry and special forces (KRAKEN) in combat, including sniper operations. Russian sources continue to promote the reintegration of veterans into civilian life through creative projects. New information from the Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War highlights ongoing efforts to locate and liberate Ukrainian prisoners, their poor conditions of detention, and the need for rehabilitation processes upon return. New video claims to show a destroyed Swedish Strv 122A tank in Sumy Oblast, highlighting the continued use of Western equipment by Ukraine and its vulnerability to drone strikes. A new video shows a powerful Russian assault on the Siversk direction repelled by Ukrainian forces using FPV drones against civilian vehicles and a motorcycle, highlighting Russian tactical adaptation and equipment losses.

Recent Major Updates:

• Continued Intense Ukrainian Cross-Border Attempt in Kursk Oblast with Breaches of Defensive Lines and Equipment Losses: New video shows Ukrainian equipment near "dragon's teeth" fortifications near Novy Put in Kursk Oblast, with reports of an attempt to prepare for a breakthrough east of Tyotkino. Use of mine-clearing vehicles under rain cover noted. Reports indicate a Ukrainian mine-clearing vehicle successfully made a passage through the "dragon's teeth" despite being hit and then withdrew after dropping off troops, confirming a breach of the initial Russian defensive line and close combat. Russian artillery, FPV drones, and guided munitions are reportedly engaging the enemy. Video claims to show destroyed Ukrainian equipment and a quad bike near Tyotkino, providing visual evidence of losses. Reports indicate Ukrainian forces are attacking in several places in the Kursk border region, including near Tyotkino and Novy Put, utilizing engineering equipment to breach barriers and engaging with infantry on quad bikes. Civilian casualties in Kursk Oblast due to Ukrainian FPV drone attacks are confirmed, with fatalities and injuries near Shchegolyok and Zvannoye. Ukrainian sources, citing Syrskyi, claim the Kursk operation has achieved its main goals of preventing Russian offensives in Sumy and Kharkiv. Additional Russian reporting confirms continued Ukrainian attempts to attack the border area, with claims of destroying three Ukrainian engineering vehicles near Tyotkino. Russian military blogger "Voenkor Kotsenok" reports a concentration of Ukrainian armored and light armored vehicles and infantry north of Pavlovka in Sumy Oblast (up to 20 units and over 300 personnel), and reiterates the report of a Ukrainian mine-clearing vehicle successfully breaching the "dragon's teeth" near Novy Put and withdrawing, with ongoing small arms fire on the defensive line and Russian counter-fire. Russian air support is reported to be active in the Kursk direction, striking advancing Ukrainian forces. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ТАСС, ASTRA, Старше Эдды, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Рыбарь, STERNENKO, Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad, WarGonzo, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Старше Эдды, Alex Parker Returns, Kotsnews, Военкор Котенок, Два майора)
• Continued Intense Ground Combat and Russian Offensive Efforts on Key Axes: Claims of continued intense fighting in the Robotyne area on the Orikhiv direction, with a Russian video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian mortar crew using drones. Reports of positional battles and claimed Russian advances near Velyka Novosilka, with forces reportedly reaching a highway and advancing north of Rozdolne. DeepState reports Ukrainian forces have regained positions in Lysivka but Russian forces have advanced near Novooleksandrivka, Kotlyarivka, Novosilka, and Novodarivka. Video reportedly shows Ukrainian forces repelling a Russian assault involving infantry on motorcycles in the Donetsk direction. DeepState analysis shared by Kotsnews indicates Russian forces are now less than three kilometers from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts and have advanced in the areas of Kotlyarivka, Novoselky, and Novodarivka. A new video shows a powerful Russian assault on the Siversk direction repelled by Ukrainian forces using FPV drones, resulting in the destruction of 12 civilian vehicles and a motorcycle adapted for assault. (Военкор Котенок, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, Colonelcassad, ASTRA, MoD Russia, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, Kotsnews, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
• Persistent Russian Aerial and Drone Activity: Ukrainian Air Force reported threats of strike UAVs and launches of guided aerial bombs on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. A Russian video claimed a strike by Russian aerospace forces using a FAB with UMPK on a Ukrainian temporary deployment point in Kupiansk. New reports confirm civilian casualties in Kursk Oblast due to Ukrainian FPV drone attacks. Commentary notes the frequent loss of Russian reconnaissance drones. A ballistic missile threat has been announced for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, ASTRA, ДСНС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS], ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, WarGonzo, STERNENKO, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Kadyrov_95, Воин DV, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
• Ukrainian Deep Strikes and Counter-Drone Operations: Civilian casualties in Kursk Oblast due to Ukrainian FPV drone attacks highlight the direct impact of Ukrainian deep strikes. Commentary highlights the effectiveness of shooting down Russian reconnaissance drones. Fundraising efforts by Ukrainian FPV drone operators underscore the importance of drones. Russian sources report their FPV drones are engaging the enemy during the Ukrainian breakthrough attempt near Novy Put. Ukrainian special forces (KRAKEN) are reportedly conducting successful sniper operations, eliminating three Russian military personnel at night. Ukrainian forces on the Siversk direction used FPV drones to repel a powerful Russian assault, destroying 12 vehicles and a motorcycle. (Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, ASTRA, ДСНС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS], ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, WarGonzo, STERNENKO, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Kadyrov_95, Воин DV, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
• Civilian Impact and Casualties: The ongoing aerial and drone attacks continue to result in civilian casualties and damage. WarGonzo's report on civilian fatalities and injuries in Kursk Oblast due to Ukrainian FPV drone attacks is a tragic confirmation of the human cost. Updates on the May 2nd Kharkiv drone attack show an increased number of injured. The confirmed fatal KAB strike in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast also highlights the direct impact on civilians. (ASTRA, РБК-Україна, КМВА, ДСНС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS], Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Два майора, ТАСС, ASTRA, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, РБК-Україна, WarGonzo)
• Information Operations and Propaganda: Both sides continue active information operations. Ukrainian sources mock Russian-appointed officials in occupied territories and highlight successful defenses against unusual Russian tactics. Russian sources showcase military unit actions and promote nationalistic narratives. An "Immortal Regiment" event was held at the Russian Embassy in Tokyo. Reports on the Romanian presidential election highlighting a "pro-Russian" candidate leading are presented by a Russian source. Russian sources report on security concerns and detentions related to alleged Ukrainian terrorist threats. Russian military bloggers are explicitly framing the Ukrainian cross-border attempt in Kursk Oblast as an expected provocation ahead of May 9th, designed to achieve a "small victory" for President Zelenskyy, drawing parallels to previous unsuccessful attempts. Russian military bloggers are using imagery of destroyed Ukrainian equipment in Kursk Oblast to illustrate the failure of these attempts. Russian sources are promoting creative projects by former soldiers as a way to reintegrate into civilian life. Ukrainian sources are highlighting the strength and effectiveness of their infantry and special forces. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, TASS, Kotsnews, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Kadyrov_95, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Янус Путьконен - Новости и приветствия - МоЛНИЯ/ИНФОРМАЦИЯ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia), БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Басурин о главном, ASTRA, Север.Реалии, Старше Эдды, Alex Parker Returns, Kotsnews, WarGonzo, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ)
• Diplomatic and Political Developments: Zelenskyy met with Czech parliamentary representatives to discuss support, peace, sanctions, and EU future. Reports indicate Western countries are discussing transferring additional Patriot systems to Ukraine. The new head of the US Embassy in Ukraine, Interim Chargé d'Affaires Julie S. Davis, has arrived in Kyiv, with a statement emphasizing the continuation of President Trump's policy aimed at ending the war and ensuring lasting peace. Reports on the Romanian presidential election and Kyiv's opposition to a "pro-Russian" candidate indicate potential regional political shifts. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have announced a joint project to create a defense line on their borders with Russia and Belarus, with Lithuania allocating significant funds over 10 years. (РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Zelenskiy / Official, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, ТАСС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Басурин о главном, ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, ТАСС)
• Resource Allocation and Logistics: A Russian source shares a video showing the delivery of supplies to a military unit, highlighting ongoing logistical support efforts, including through public initiatives. Fundraising for Ukrainian drone capabilities is ongoing. Ukrainian forces on the Siversk direction demonstrated the effectiveness of using FPV drones to destroy Russian vehicles adapted for assault, highlighting the ongoing importance of drone technology in countering ground assaults. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, MoD Russia, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Воин DV, Два майора, Два майора, Два майора, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Янус Путьконен - Новости и приветствия - МоЛНИЯ/ИНФОРМАЦИЯ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia), Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
• Internal Russian Issues: Reports on the detention of a resident planning a railway terrorist attack who was allegedly receiving instructions from a Ukrainian paramilitary group and the detention of members of a fraudulent call center gang suggest ongoing security concerns. Putin met with Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin. Mishustin visited Beslan to honor victims of the 2004 terrorist attack. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, TASS, Kotsnews, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Kadyrov_95, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Янус Путьконен - Новости и приветствия - МоЛНИЯ/ИНФОРМАЦИЯ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia), Басурин о главном, ASTRA, Север.Реалии, Colonelcassad, TASS, TASS, TASS, Новости Москвы, Север.Реалии)
• Ukrainian Internal Affairs/Infrastructure: Educational institutions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast are set to receive significant funding for updating training facilities, highlighting continued investment in education and vocational training in affected regions. Kyiv City Military Administration is working with the Kyiv School of Economics to audit a barrier-free route for veterans and wounded military personnel in Kyiv, highlighting efforts to improve accessibility and support for those injured. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Олексій Білошицький, Олександр Вілкул, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація))
• Other Information: Updates on the number of injured in the May 2nd Kharkiv drone attack. New information from the Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War details online meetings with families of captured servicemen, the ongoing search for effective tools for their release, concerns about their long-term detention and lack of medical aid, and discussions about rehabilitation and reintegration processes. (ASTRA, РБК-Україна, КМВА, ДСНС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS], Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Два майора, ТАСС, ASTRA, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, РБК-Україна, WarGonzo, Colonelcassad, ASTRA, WarGonzo, Rybar, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Олексій Білошицький, Олександр Вілкул, Два майора, Два майора, Два майора, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Янус Путьконен - Новости и приветствия - МоЛНИЯ/ИНФОРМАЦИЯ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia), Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Басурин о главном, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими)

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

• Kursk Oblast (Russia): Continued intense Ukrainian attempt to break through the state border near Tyotkino and Novy Put. Enemy utilizing rainy weather to clear paths through minefields and "dragon's teeth" using mine clearing vehicles to facilitate armored vehicle and infantry advances. Reported destruction of multiple Ukrainian IMRs (at least 4 confirmed destroyed over time), a tank, a UR-77 (at least 2 confirmed destroyed), a Stryker BFM, a wheeled vehicle, and 2 quad bikes by VDV and other Russian forces. Enemy managed to make a passage in the support strip of the first line of defense, with a second wave of attack with armored vehicles expected. Establishment of a pontoon crossing near Iskrovshchina reported. Large number of FPV drones in the air used to cut off maneuverability. Possibility of this being a diversionary strike with the main attack elsewhere. Ukrainian General Staff claims the nine-month "Kursk operation" has achieved its main goals of preventing Russian offensives in Sumy and Kharkiv, and the buffer zone created remains relevant. Specific praise for the 225th separate assault regiment. Civilian casualties confirmed due to Ukrainian FPV drone attack on a vehicle near Shchegolyok (2 killed, 3 injured) and an explosive device dropped on a civilian vehicle near Zvannoye (1 killed). Russian military member arrested for shooting a family in the village of Giryi. Russian sources claim to be repelling attacks on the Tetkino direction and destroying Ukrainian equipment, including photos claiming destroyed "neo-Nazi formations'" equipment and a disabled Leopard 2R mine clearing vehicle. Rybаr reports a small Ukrainian group near the Tetkino railway station that withdrew, and no breakthrough as of 11:00 AM from Iskriskivshchyna with armored vehicles. Rybаr notes Ukrainian activity on the northern flank across the Seym River in the Griadka урочище and Otruba but no crossing attempts. Strikes on the bridge in Zvannoye reported, perpetrator unknown. Ukrainian source STERNENKO reports "Katsaps are anxious about Tyotkino" and reports of an offensive and blown-up bridges. Russian source Alex Parker Returns sarcastically reports a "new fake" about a Ukrainian breakthrough into Titkino. Colonelcassad reports Ukrainian forces successfully breached the "dragon's teeth" near Novy Put and are engaged in small arms fire on the defensive line. Два майора shares a video claiming destroyed Ukrainian equipment and a quad bike with personnel near Tyotkino. WarGonzo reports Ukrainian attacks in several places, including near Tyotkino and Novy Put, with engineering equipment breaching barriers and infantry engaged. WarGonzo reports civilian casualties (2 killed, 3 injured) near Shchegolyok due to Ukrainian FPV drone attack and 1 killed near Zvannoye due to an explosive device. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a new Ukrainian breakthrough attempt near Tyotkino and continued Ukrainian presence in Kursk Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and РБК-Україна share Syrskyi's statement on the success of the Kursk operation in preventing Russian offensives elsewhere. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a map indicating movement from Ukraine into Russia in the area of Putyvl towards Tyotkine, Glushkovo, and Korenevo. New Russian reporting confirms continued Ukrainian attempts to attack the border area, with claims of destroying three Ukrainian engineering vehicles near Tyotkino. Russian military blogger "Voenkor Kotsenok" reports a concentration of Ukrainian armored and light armored vehicles and infantry north of Pavlovka in Sumy Oblast (up to 20 units and over 300 personnel), and reiterates the report of a Ukrainian mine-clearing vehicle successfully breaching the "dragon's teeth" near Novy Put and withdrawing, with ongoing small arms fire on the defensive line and Russian counter-fire. Russian air support is reported to be active in the Kursk direction, striking advancing Ukrainian forces. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Два майора, НгП раZVедка, Военкор Котенок, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ТАСС, ASTRA, Старше Эдды, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Рыбарь, STERNENKO, Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad, WarGonzo, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Старше Эдды, Alex Parker Returns, Kotsnews, Военкор Котенок, Два майора)
• Dnipropetrovsk Direction (near Novoserhiivka, Novooleksandrivka, Nadiivka, Kotlyarivka, Troitske, Bohdanivka, Nikopol, Pokrovsk, Marhanets, Novopavlivka community in Synelnykove district): Fierce counter-battles reported in the area of Novoserhiivka - Novooleksandrivka. Claimed enemy (Ukrainian) entry into the western outskirts of Novooleksandrivka due to a counterattack. Claimed Russian assault troops taking an enemy stronghold northwest of Nadiivka. Claimed Russian assault troops occupying the main part of Kotlyarivka, with fighting in the western part. Claimed Russian units advancing on both sides of the Serebryanka ravine south of Kotlyarivka, reaching the forest belt adjacent to the western outskirts of Troitske, and consolidating in its northern part. Claimed Russian assault troops attacking Troitske and south of Bohdanivka. Unrelenting Russian shelling of settlements in Nikopol district (Nikopol, Pokrovsk, and Marhanets communities) using kamikaze drones and heavy artillery. Fatality and damage to houses and infrastructure in the Novopavlivka community of Synelnykove district due to guided aerial bomb strikes. Ukrainian Air Force warning about KABs targeting Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a DeepState map and text claiming Russian forces are about three kilometers away from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. DeepState reports Russian forces advanced near Novooleksandrivka, Kotlyarivka, Novosilka, and Novodarivka. DeepState analysis shared by Kotsnews indicates Russian forces are now less than three kilometers from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts and have advanced in the areas of Kotlyarivka, Novoselky, and Novodarivka. (Военкор Котенок, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, Kotsnews)
• Donetsk Oblast (General, including Udachnoye, Dimitrov, Novopavlovka, Novosergeyevka, Grodovka, Serebryanka, Druzhkovka, Seversk, Zarya, Bogatyr, Fedorovka, Komar, Novopol, Novodarivka, Vilne Pole, Novosilka, Zeleny Pole, Myrnohrad, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, Zarechne, Staraya Nikolaevka, Kalinovo, Sukhaya Balka, Novaya Poltavka, Toretsk, Alexandropol): Colonelcassad shares a map from "@divgen" showing claimed changes on the map over the past day, including Russian forces entering Staraya Nikolaevka and Novaya Poltavka, advancing near Kalinovo, and expanding their control zone near Sukhaya Balka. ASTRA reports 9 people were injured in Russian strikes in Donetsk Oblast on May 4th: 5 in Pokrovsk, 3 in Druzhkivka, and 1 in Zarechne. MoD Russia reports claimed Ukrainian losses and tactical improvements for the "Yug" and "Tsentr" groupings in areas including Udachnoye, Dimitrov, Novopavlovka, Novosergeyevka, Grodovka, Serebryanka, Druzhkovka, Seversk, and Zarya. MoD Russia reports claimed Ukrainian losses and continued Russian advance for the "Vostok" grouping in areas including Bogatyr, Fedorovka, Komar, and Novopol. Ukrainian Air Force warning about KABs targeting Donetsk Oblast. DeepState analysis shared by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a difficult situation from Novodarivka to Vilne Pole, with at least 46 Russian assault actions on May 3rd on three sections (Vilne Pole, Zeleny Pole and south of Novosilka, and towards Novopol), using infantry supported by motorcycles. DeepState notes Russian tactical success east of Novodarivka, occupying forest belts, and crossing the Vorona River to consolidate near Zeleny Pole. Ukrainian SBU detained an FSB agent in the Myrnohrad area. Azov unit, now corps, reported to be stabilizing the front on the Toretsk and Pokrovsk directions. A Russian military expert claims strong Ukrainian concrete defenses in the Konstantinovka and Kramatorsk areas. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a DeepState map and text claiming Russian forces are about three kilometers away from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. DeepState reports Russian forces advanced near Novooleksandrivka, Kotlyarivka, Novosilka, and Novodarivka. DeepState analysis shared by Kotsnews indicates Russian forces are now less than three kilometers from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts and have advanced in the areas of Kotlyarivka, Novoselky, and Novodarivka. A new video shows a powerful Russian assault on the Siversk direction repelled by Ukrainian forces using FPV drones, resulting in the destruction of 12 civilian vehicles and a motorcycle adapted for assault. (Colonelcassad, ASTRA, MoD Russia, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, Kotsnews, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
• Moscow (Russia): Renewed reports of issues with all mobile operators on the day of the parade rehearsal, linked to security measures for Victory Day, including jamming and warnings from RSChS. Conflicting official Russian statement claiming no disruptions. Kotsnews discusses the mobile communication issues, framing them as necessary security precautions against perceived Ukrainian threats. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video of a veteran traveling to Moscow for the Victory Parade. TASS reports that Putin is holding a meeting with Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin. Colonelcassad is sharing images and videos of Russian drones (Orlans, Iks, Geraniums) participating in a Victory Day parade training. (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, ASTRA, Alex Parker Returns, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Kotsnews, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, ТАСС, Colonelcassad)
• Krasnodar Krai (Russia): New Head of the Main Directorate of the МВД appointed. (Полиция Хабаровского края)
• Republic of Crimea (Occupied): New Minister of Internal Affairs appointed. (Полиция Хабаровского края)
• Rostov Oblast (Russia): New Head of the Main Directorate of the МВД appointed. (Полиция Хабаровского края)
• Perm Krai (Russia): New Head of the Main Directorate of the МВД appointed. (Полиция Хабаровского края)
• Kharkiv Oblast (General, including Sadki, Granov, Peski, Kupyansk, Grigorovka, Kutkovka, Zolochiv, Izium, Bohodukhiv, Boriv): Ukrainian General Staff claims active actions in Kursk prevented Russian offensives in Kharkiv. MoD Russia reports claimed Ukrainian losses for the "Sever" and "Zapad" groupings in areas including Sadki, Granov, Peski, Kupyansk, Grigorovka, and Kutkovka. Head of Kharkiv Oblast Administration reports a FAB-500 guided aerial bomb strike on a residential area in Zolochiv, with 3 rescued and 2 children injured. Strikes on civilian infrastructure reported on the Kupiansk, Bohodukhiv, Izium, and Boriv directions. Enemy resumed shelling forest plantations, leading to 8 fires, the largest near Izium (85 hectares). РБК-Україна reports that the number of injured in the May 2nd Kharkiv drone attack has increased to 51, including two girls. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, MoD Russia, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, РБК-Україна)
• Sumy Oblast (General, including Ryasnoye, Velikaya Pisarevka, Ryzhevka, Iskriskivshchyna, Pavlovka): Ukrainian General Staff claims active actions in Kursk prevented Russian offensives in Sumy. MoD Russia reports claimed Ukrainian losses for the "Sever" grouping in areas including Ryasnoye and Velikaya Pisarevka. Rybаr reports a small Ukrainian group from Ryzhevka was spotted near Tetkino. Rybаr reports a claimed Ukrainian offensive from Iskriskivshchyna. Russian military blogger Военкор Котенок cites his book stating the Russian task is to operate deeper in Sumy Oblast to prevent future incursions. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and РБК-Україна share Syrskyi's statement on the success of the Kursk operation in preventing Russian offensives elsewhere. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a map indicating movement from Ukraine into Russia in the area of Putyvl towards Tyotkine, Glushkovo, and Korenevo. Russian military blogger "Voenkor Kotsenok" reports a concentration of Ukrainian armored and light armored vehicles and infantry north of Pavlovka in Sumy Oblast (up to 20 units and over 300 personnel). (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, MoD Russia, Рыбарь, Военкор Котенок, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Военкор Котенок)
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast (General, including Malaya Tokmachka, Pavlovka, Orikhiv): Ongoing construction of civilian infrastructure, including sports fields, despite daily danger and enemy attacks. Focus on "veteran sports." MoD Russia reports claimed Ukrainian losses for the "Dnepr" grouping in areas including Malaya Tokmachka and Pavlovka, and the destruction of a HIMARS launcher. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports that educational institutions here will receive over 33 million hryvnias for updating training facilities within the #100mastery project. Воин DV shares a video claiming a Russian drone operator is accurately striking enemy positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction. A ballistic missile threat has been announced for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports that an air raid alert has been declared across the entire Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, MoD Russia, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Воин DV, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
• Konotop (Sumy Oblast): Combined attack with over a dozen "Shahed" drones and two ballistic missiles destroyed an infrastructure object, no casualties. Strikes deliberately timed with intervals. (РБК-Україна)
• Mykolaiv Oblast: Claimed partisan activity reported, with a video claiming the burning of "man catcher" cars. (Colonelcassad)
• Lipetsk Oblast (Russia): Increase in motorcycle accidents, including fatalities and injuries to teenagers, prompting official warnings and calls for parental responsibility. (Игорь Артамонов)
• Kyiv (General, including Voskresenka district): Pipeline breakthrough under tram tracks in Voskresenka district, creating a sinkhole and halting tram traffic (routes 22, 27, 28, 33, 35). Emergency crews on site. РБК-Україна reports that the new head of the US Embassy in Ukraine, Interim Chargé d'Affaires Julie S. Davis, has arrived in Kyiv. Kyiv City Military Administration is working with the Kyiv School of Economics to audit a barrier-free route for veterans and wounded military personnel in Kyiv, highlighting efforts to improve accessibility and support for those injured. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація))
• Chernihiv Oblast: Russian military blogger Военкор Котенок cites his book stating the Russian task is to operate deeper in Chernihiv Oblast to prevent future incursions. (Военкор Котенок)
• Myrnohrad Area (Donetsk Oblast): Ukrainian SBU detained an FSB agent here. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
• Zolochiv (Kharkiv Oblast): FAB-500 guided aerial bomb strike on a residential area, 3 rescued, 2 children injured. (Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА)
• Izium (Kharkiv Oblast): Strikes on civilian infrastructure reported. Largest forest fire (85 hectares) near Izium due to renewed shelling of forest plantations. (Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА)
• Pakistan: Reported critical shortage of artillery ammunition due to supplies to Ukraine, sufficient for only four days of full-scale war with India. Requested emergency consultations with the UN Security Council due to worsening situation in Jammu and Kashmir. (Colonelcassad, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
• India: Indian media reporting on Pakistan's ammunition shortage. Putin accepted invitation from Modi to visit India. (Colonelcassad, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, ТАСС)
• Jammu and Kashmir Region: Worsening situation reported, leading to Pakistan's request for UN Security Council consultations. (Colonelcassad)
• Bohodukhiv Direction (Kharkiv Oblast): Strikes on civilian infrastructure reported. (Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА)
• Boriv Direction (Kharkiv Oblast): Strikes on civilian infrastructure reported. (Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА)
• Zeleny Pole Area (Donetsk Oblast): DeepState analysis reports at least 46 Russian assault actions on May 3rd in this direction and south of Novosilka, with tactical success east of Novodarivka and consolidation near Zeleny Pole after crossing the Vorona River. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
• Novodarivka Area (Donetsk Oblast): Difficult situation reported, with Russian tactical success east of Novodarivka, occupying many forest belts. DeepState reports Russian forces advanced near Novodarivka. DeepState analysis shared by Kotsnews indicates Russian forces have advanced in the area. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, Kotsnews)
• Vilne Pole Area (Donetsk Oblast): Difficult situation reported. Russian assault actions on May 3rd. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
• Novopol Area (Donetsk Oblast): Russian assault actions on May 3rd in this direction. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
• Otruba Village (Kursk Oblast, Russia): Rybаr reports Ukrainian concentration of manpower and equipment here across the Seym River. (Рыбарь)
• Griadka урочище (Kursk Oblast, Russia): Rybаr reports Ukrainian concentration of manpower and equipment here across the Seym River. (Рыбарь)
• Zvannoye (Kursk Oblast, Russia): Strikes on the bridge reported, perpetrator unknown. WarGonzo reports 1 killed here due to an explosive device dropped on a civilian car. (Рыбарь, WarGonzo)
• Iskriskivshchyna (Sumy Oblast, Ukraine): Rybаr reports a claimed Ukrainian offensive from here. (Рыбарь)
• Slovakia: Prime Minister Robert Fico facing travel issues to Moscow for Victory Day, with some EU countries reportedly denying airspace access. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
• North Caucasus (Russia): Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin is on a working trip here. (ТАСС)
• Irkutsk Oblast (Russia): Veteran from here traveling to Moscow for the Victory Parade. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
• Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Kadyrov_95 claims "Vostok-AKHMAT" battalion continues to hold the line and destroy the enemy here. (Kadyrov_95)
• Shchegolyok (Kursk Oblast, Russia): WarGonzo reports civilian casualties (2 killed, 3 injured) here due to Ukrainian FPV drone attack. (WarGonzo)
• Putyvl Area (Sumy Oblast, Ukraine): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a map indicating movement from here into Russia towards Tyotkine, Glushkovo, and Korenevo. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
• Glushkovo Area (Kursk Oblast, Russia): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a map indicating movement towards here from Ukraine. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
• Korenevo Area (Kursk Oblast, Russia): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a map indicating movement towards here from Ukraine. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
• Novooleksandrivka (Donetsk Oblast): DeepState reports Russian forces advanced near here. DeepState analysis shared by Kotsnews indicates Russian forces have advanced in the area. (✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, Kotsnews)
• Kotlyarivka (Donetsk Oblast): DeepState reports Russian forces advanced near here. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a DeepState map highlighting the area around Kotyarivka. DeepState analysis shared by Kotsnews indicates Russian forces have advanced in the area. (✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Kotsnews)
• Novosilka (Donetsk Oblast): DeepState reports Russian forces advanced near here. DeepState analysis shared by Kotsnews indicates Russian forces have advanced in the area. (✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, Kotsnews)
• Velyka Novosilka (Donetsk Oblast): Сливочный каприз reports positional battles here and claimed Russian advances. (Сливочный каприз)
• Rozdolne (Donetsk Oblast): Сливочный каприз reports Russian forces advanced north of here. (Сливочный каприз)
• Lysivka (Donetsk Oblast): DeepState reports Ukrainian forces have regained positions here. (✙DeepState✙🇺🇦)
• Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug (Russia): Colonelcassad reports detention of a resident planning a railway terrorist attack here. (Colonelcassad)
• Romania: Басурин о главном reports on the first round of presidential elections here, highlighting a "pro-Russian" candidate leading. (Басурин о главном)
• Tokyo (Japan): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares photos of an "Immortal Regiment" event at the Russian Embassy here. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
• Beslan (North Ossetia-Alania, Russia): ТАСС reports Mishustin visited here to honor victims of the 2004 terrorist attack. (ТАСС)
• Lithuania: Lithuania is implementing a project for a defense line on its border with Russia and Belarus, allocating 1.1 billion euros over 10 years. (ТАСС)
• Latvia: Latvia is implementing a project for a defense line on its border with Russia and Belarus. (ТАСС)
• Estonia: Estonia is implementing a project for a defense line on its border with Russia and Belarus. (ТАСС)
• Belarus: Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are implementing a project for a defense line on their border with Belarus. (ТАСС)
• Siversk Direction (Donetsk Oblast): A powerful Russian assault on this direction was repelled by Ukrainian forces using FPV drones, resulting in the destruction of 12 civilian vehicles and a motorcycle. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
• Starokonstantiniv (Khmelnytskyi Oblast): Николаевский Ванёк reports three drones approaching here and one from Zhytomyr Oblast heading towards here. (Николаевский Ванёк)
• Khmelnytskyi (Khmelnytskyi Oblast): Николаевский Ванёк reports one drone near here. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of strike UAVs for Khmelnytskyi Oblast from the east. (Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
• Zhytomyr Oblast: Николаевский Ванёк reports one drone from here heading towards Starokonstantiniv. (Николаевский Ванёк)
• Crimea (Occupied): Colonelcassad shares a video claiming a destroyed Swedish Strv 122A tank here. (Colonelcassad)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

• Drone Activity: Continued, widespread, and dynamic Russian drone activity reported across multiple oblasts with updated and detailed trajectories provided. Ukrainian Air Force issues warnings regarding approaching strike UAVs. Reported destruction of Ukrainian "Bohdana" self-propelled artillery systems using "Lancet" drones. Aftermath of night attacks in Kyiv with confirmed damage and civilian medical appeals. New photos from the State Emergency Service in Kyiv show firefighters extinguishing fires and burned cars. Launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts have been confirmed, with new warnings for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. New detailed reporting provides an updated picture of remaining Russian drone activity across various oblasts, including movements towards Zhytomyr Oblast, Fastiv, Vasylkiv, Kremenchuk district, eastern Kyiv Oblast, and the Konotop area. Russian source confirms impacts and damage in Kyiv and Cherkasy. Information and video about a new French quadcopter shared. Images and videos of Russian drones (Orlans, Iks, Geraniums) participating in a Victory Day parade training in Moscow shared. Movement of enemy UAVs towards Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, and Khmelnytskyi has been confirmed. Report of a UAV destroyed in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky in Rostov Oblast. Russian military blogger Военкор Котенок reports on Russian strategic objective to operate deeper in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts to prevent future incursions, implying continued need to counter Ukrainian cross-border drone activity. WarGonzo reports civilian casualties in Kursk Oblast due to Ukrainian FPV drone attacks. STERNENKO comments on the frequent loss of Russian reconnaissance drones. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video from an FPV drone operator thanking readers for helping acquire 200 "Electroclosers." Kadyrov_95 shares a video claiming destruction of a Ukrainian mortar crew in Robotyne using a drone. Воин DV shares a video claiming a Russian drone operator is accurately striking enemy positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Colonelcassad reports Russian FPV drones are engaging the enemy during the Ukrainian breakthrough attempt near Novy Put. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video claiming the destruction of enemy heavy drones ("Yagi") by FPV drone crews in the air. Ukrainian special forces (KRAKEN) are reportedly using snipers to eliminate Russian military personnel at night, potentially with drone support for targeting or observation. Ukrainian forces on the Siversk direction used FPV drones to repel a powerful Russian assault, destroying 12 civilian vehicles and a motorcycle. Николаевский Ванёк provides granular details on the remaining drone activity, specifically noting three drones approaching Starokonstantiniv, one near Khmelnytskyi, and one from Zhytomyr Oblast heading towards Starokonstantiniv. (Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, ASTRA, ДСНС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS], ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, WarGonzo, STERNENKO, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Kadyrov_95, Воин DV, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Николаевский Ванёк)
• Russian Tactical Aviation: Launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts have been confirmed, with new warnings for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. A Russian video claimed a strike by Russian aerospace forces using a FAB with UMPK on a Ukrainian temporary deployment point in Kupiansk. Russian air support is reported to be active in the Kursk direction, striking advancing Ukrainian forces. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Два майора)
• Ballistic Missile Activity: A ballistic missile threat has been announced for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
• Black Sea Reconnaissance: Reported continued enemy reconnaissance activity over the Black Sea, including an ISR aircraft. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
• Russian Naval Operations: Russian military bloggers discussing adapting to counter Ukrainian unmanned surface vehicles (USVs). (Два майора)
• Ukrainian Naval Drone Capabilities: OSINT researcher suggests effectiveness of Ukrainian Magura V7 USVs in shooting down Russian aircraft indicates a newer, larger version with missile launchers. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

• Russian Information Operations: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны promotes a special project highlighting claimed achievements under Putin's leadership. Colonelcassad engages in information operations showcasing claimed Russian military successes and technology and presenting claimed evidence of Ukrainian "atrocities" and claimed dead Ukrainian soldiers. TASS reports on a new scam involving ticket purchases. TASS reports that the President of Cuba is traveling to Russia to participate in Victory Day celebrations. Colonelcassad is sharing images and videos of Russian drones (Orlans, Iks, Geraniums) participating in a Victory Day parade training in Moscow. TASS reports that the Financial Times suggests Kyiv may resume military aggression if a peace agreement does not include the recognition of territories incorporated into Russia, especially Crimea. Kotsnews discusses the mobile communication issues in Moscow, framing them as necessary security precautions against perceived Ukrainian threats. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА shares a video of a veteran traveling to Moscow for the Victory Parade, promoting patriotism and the historical significance of Victory Day. Два майора shares photos claiming the destruction of "neo-Nazi formations'" equipment during the attempted breakthrough in Kursk. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on VDV repelling the attack near Tetkino and destroying "Kyiv regime's" equipment. Alex Parker Returns sarcastically reports a "new fake" about a Ukrainian breakthrough. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a sarcastic video featuring a Russian-appointed official in occupied Kakhovka. Kadyrov_95 shares a video highlighting the actions of the "Vostok-AKHMAT" battalion in Robotyne. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares photos of an "Immortal Regiment" event in Tokyo. Янус Путьконен - Новости и приветствия - МоЛНИЯ/ИНФОРМАЦИЯ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia), a Finnish source, shares a photo of a bottle of "Popeda" vodka with military-themed imagery and the slogan "We won then, we will win now!" in Russian. This is a cultural artifact reflecting Russian nationalistic sentiment and could be considered a form of soft propaganda, particularly ahead of Victory Day. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video highlighting the repelling of a Russian assault involving infantry on motorcycles, emphasizing that the Russians were carrying flags to plant on ruins. Басурин о главном reports on the first round of the Romanian presidential elections, highlighting a "pro-Russian" candidate leading and noting that Kyiv does not want a leader in a neighboring country who opposes military support for Ukraine. This is a Russian information operation aimed at highlighting potential political shifts in Europe that could be unfavorable to Ukraine and showcasing perceived Western attempts to influence the election. Colonelcassad reports on the detention of a resident of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug who was planning a railway terrorist attack and was reportedly receiving instructions from a member of a Ukrainian paramilitary group. He also shares a video of the detention of members of a gang facilitating fraudulent call centers that sent fake terrorist threat messages. These reports from a Russian source are likely intended to highlight perceived Ukrainian terrorist threats within Russia and Russian counter-terrorism efforts, potentially for information warfare purposes. ASTRA reports that opposition journalist Alexander Ryklin burned his Russian passport and renounced his citizenship, citing opposition to the "fascist state." Север.Реалии reports that film critic Ekaterina Barabash was helped by "Reporters Without Borders" to leave Russia after being declared wanted and facing a "fake news" case. Russian military bloggers are explicitly framing the Ukrainian cross-border attempt in Kursk Oblast as an expected provocation ahead of May 9th, designed to achieve a "small victory" for President Zelenskyy, drawing parallels to previous unsuccessful attempts. Russian military bloggers are using imagery of destroyed Ukrainian equipment in Kursk Oblast to illustrate the failure of these attempts. Russian sources are promoting creative projects by former soldiers as a way to reintegrate into civilian life. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, TASS, Kotsnews, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Kadyrov_95, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Янус Путьконен - Новости и приветствия - МоЛНИЯ/ИНФОРМАЦИЯ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia), БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Басурин о главном, ASTRA, Север.Реалии, Старше Эдды, Alex Parker Returns, Kotsnews, WarGonzo)
• Ukrainian Diplomatic and Political Stance: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announces upcoming sanctions against entities assisting Russia in circumventing existing sanctions and reiterates Ukraine's readiness for a ceasefire under specific conditions. President Zelenskyy criticizes some European figures for allegedly blocking Ukraine's path to the EU. Ukrainian General Staff provides their perspective on the strategic goals and claimed achievements of their actions in the Kursk region, framing the current operation as a success in preventing Russian offensives elsewhere. Ukrainian SBU detains an FSB agent. Azov unit, now corps, highlights their history and future objectives. Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War reports on psychological support for families of captured/missing personnel. Zelenskiy / Official reports meeting with the Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies of the Czech Parliament and deputy speakers, focusing on support, peace, sanctions, and EU future. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and РБК-Україна share Syrskyi's statement on the success of the Kursk operation. РБК-Україна reports that the new head of the US Embassy in Ukraine, Interim Chargé d'Affaires Julie S. Davis, has arrived in Kyiv. The statement from the US Embassy emphasizes her arrival at a critical time to continue implementing President Trump's policy aimed at ending the war and ensuring lasting peace and prosperity in Ukraine. Ukrainian sources are highlighting the strength and effectiveness of their infantry and special forces. Kyiv City Military Administration is working to create a barrier-free route for veterans and wounded military personnel in Kyiv, demonstrating efforts to support this population. New information from the Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War highlights ongoing efforts to locate and liberate Ukrainian prisoners and concerns about their detention conditions. (РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Zelenskiy / Official, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими)
• International Support for Ukraine: Czech President Petr Pavel states the Czech ammunition initiative has improved the shell ratio on the front to 1:2 and that another 1.8 million shells could be provided this year. President Zelenskyy announces preparations for the launch of a Ukrainian-Czech F-16 school. European Commissioner for Defense, Andrius Kubilius, discusses doubling military support to Ukraine if Russia refuses peace, potentially through purchasing weapons in Ukraine. ТАСС reports that Western countries are discussing the possibility of transferring additional Patriot air defense systems to Kyiv, citing Reuters. Zelenskiy / Official reports meeting with Czech parliamentary representatives focused on support for Ukraine. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have announced a joint project to create a defense line on their borders with Russia and Belarus, allocating 1.1 billion euros over 10 years. (РБК-Україна, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, ТАСС, Zelenskiy / Official, ТАСС)
• Potential Peace Negotiations and Territorial Disputes: TASS reports on a Financial Times article suggesting Kyiv may resume military aggression if a peace agreement does not include the recognition of territories incorporated into Russia, particularly Crimea. Trump reportedly allowed for the possibility of the US withdrawing from negotiations if an agreement is deemed impossible. Czech President Pavel states deploying peacekeeping forces in Ukraine is not possible without a peace agreement. Zelenskiy / Official states the situation on the battlefield proves Russia does not want a lasting silence that would open the way for diplomacy. РБК-Україна reports that the new head of the US Embassy in Ukraine emphasizes continuing President Trump's policy aimed at ending the war and ensuring lasting peace and prosperity in Ukraine. New information from the Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War highlights the ongoing search for effective tools for the release of Ukrainian prisoners, including those facing "criminal cases" or sentences in Russia or occupied territories. (TASS, РБК-Україна, Zelenskiy / Official, РБК-Україна, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими)
• International Relations: TASS reports on a new scam involving ticket purchases. TASS reports that the President of Cuba is traveling to Russia to participate in Victory Day celebrations. TASS reports that the Financial Times suggests Kyiv may resume military aggression if a peace agreement does not include the recognition of territories incorporated into Russia. Putin accepted invitation from Modi to visit India. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico facing travel issues to Moscow for Victory Day, with some EU countries reportedly denying airspace access. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares photos of an "Immortal Regiment" event in Tokyo, Japan. Басурин о главном reports on the Romanian presidential election. ТАСС reports that Mishustin visited Beslan. ТАСС reports that the European Commission will present a plan to stop importing gas from Russia on May 6th. Colonelcassad reports that the President of Mongolia will participate in the 80th anniversary of Victory Day celebration in Moscow. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Israel has approved a plan to occupy the Gaza Strip. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have announced a joint project to create a defense line on their borders with Russia and Belarus, allocating 1.1 billion euros over 10 years. (TASS, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Басурин о главном, ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, ТАСС)

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

• Information Operations: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны promotes a project highlighting claimed achievements under Putin's leadership. Colonelcassad engages in information operations showcasing claimed Russian military successes and technology. Colonelcassad presents claimed evidence of Ukrainian "atrocities" and claimed dead Ukrainian soldiers. TASS reports on a new scam involving ticket purchases. TASS reports that the President of Cuba is traveling to Russia to participate in Victory Day celebrations. Colonelcassad is sharing images and videos of Russian drones (Orlans, Iks, Geraniums) participating in a Victory Day parade training. Kotsnews discusses the mobile communication issues in Moscow, framing them as necessary security precautions. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА shares a video of a veteran traveling to Moscow for the Victory Parade, promoting patriotism and the historical significance of Victory Day. Два майора shares photos claiming the destruction of "neo-Nazi formations'" equipment during the attempted breakthrough in Kursk. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on VDV repelling the attack near Tetkino and destroying "Kyiv regime's" equipment. Alex Parker Returns sarcastically reports a "new fake" about a Ukrainian breakthrough. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a sarcastic video featuring a Russian-appointed official in occupied Kakhovka. Kadyrov_95 shares a video highlighting the actions of the "Vostok-AKHMAT" battalion in Robotyne. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares photos of an "Immortal Regiment" event in Tokyo. Янус Путьконен - Новости и приветствия - МоЛНИЯ/ИНФОРМАЦИЯ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) shares a photo of "Popeda" vodka with nationalistic imagery. Басурин о главном reports on the Romanian presidential election and Kyiv's opposition to a "pro-Russian" candidate. Colonelcassad reports on the detention of a resident planning a railway terrorist attack who allegedly received instructions from a Ukrainian paramilitary group, and shares a video of detaining members of a fraudulent call center gang. ASTRA reports that opposition journalist Alexander Ryklin burned his Russian passport and renounced his citizenship, citing opposition to the "fascist state." Север.Реалии reports that film critic Ekaterina Barabash was helped by "Reporters Without Borders" to leave Russia after being declared wanted and facing a "fake news" case. Russian military bloggers are explicitly framing the Ukrainian cross-border attempt in Kursk Oblast as an expected provocation ahead of May 9th. Russian sources are promoting creative projects by former soldiers as a way to reintegrate into civilian life. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, TASS, Kotsnews, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Kadyrov_95, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Янус Путьконен - Новости и приветствия - МоЛНИЯ/ИНФОРМАЦИЯ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia), Басурин о главном, ASTRA, Север.Реалии, Старше Эдды, Alex Parker Returns, Kotsnews, WarGonzo)
• Military Readiness and Propaganda: Colonelcassad is sharing images and videos of Russian drones (Orlans, Iks, Geraniums) participating in a Victory Day parade training. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА shares a video of a veteran traveling to Moscow for the Victory Parade. Kadyrov_95 shares a video highlighting the actions of the "Vostok-AKHMAT" battalion in Robotyne. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares photos of an "Immortal Regiment" event in Tokyo. Янус Путьконен - Новости и приветствия - МоЛНИЯ/ИНФОРМАЦИЯ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) shares a photo of "Popeda" vodka with nationalistic imagery. Russian sources are promoting creative projects by former soldiers as a way to reintegrate into civilian life. (Colonelcassad, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА, Kadyrov_95, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Янус Путьконен - Новости и приветствия - МоЛНИЯ/ИНФОРМАЦИЯ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia), WarGonzo)
• Security and Societal Control: ASTRA reports on security forces conducting raids on bars in St. Petersburg and Yekaterinburg, checking documents, tattoos, phones, and questioning individuals about their political views and attitudes towards the "SVO." Concerns regarding telecommunications disruptions in Moscow ahead of Victory Day continue to be reported, with conflicting reports on the extent of the issues. Kotsnews discusses the mobile communication issues, framing them as necessary security precautions. Colonelcassad reports on the detention of a resident planning a railway terrorist attack who allegedly received instructions from a Ukrainian paramilitary group, and shares a video of detaining members of a fraudulent call center gang. ASTRA reports that opposition journalist Alexander Ryklin burned his Russian passport and renounced his citizenship, citing opposition to the "fascist state." Север.Реалии reports that film critic Ekaterina Barabash was helped by "Reporters Without Borders" to leave Russia after being declared wanted and facing a "fake news" case. Alex Parker Returns reports that the Victory Day parade in Sevastopol will not be held, citing the Ministry of Defense's inability to ensure security. (ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, ASTRA, Alex Parker Returns, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Kotsnews, Colonelcassad, ASTRA, Север.Реалии, Alex Parker Returns)
• Localized Law Enforcement Activities: A new report from the police in Khabarovsk Krai details various law enforcement activities including theft, property damage, violations of fire safety regulations, fraud, and illegal labor activities by migrants. (Полиция Хабаровского края)
• Taxation and Legal Issues: TASS reports that videoblogger Amiran Sardarov owes almost half a million rubles to the Federal Tax Service, according to law enforcement sources. (ТАСС)
• Internal Political/Ideological Tensions: Report about the demolition of a monument to Ataman Krasnov in Rostov Oblast and accompanying commentary from a Russian military blogger suggests internal political or ideological tensions. (Два майора)
• Government Activities: TASS reports that Mikhail Mishustin, the Russian Prime Minister, has arrived for a working trip to the North Caucasus. ТАСС reports that Putin is holding a meeting with Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin. ТАСС reports that Mishustin visited Beslan. Putin and Sobyanin discuss the economy of Moscow and its ranking. (ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Новости Москвы)
• Issues for People with Disabilities: Север.Реалии highlights difficulties faced by people with disabilities in Russia in obtaining necessary documentation and benefits. (Север.Реалии)

Other Information (Updated):

• Humanitarian Situation: ASTRA shares videos and photos highlighting the aftermath of the night attacks in Kyiv, confirming damage and civilian medical appeals. РБК-Україна reports two injured children in Kyiv, later updated to a total of four residents seeking medical assistance. КМВА reports three women sought medical assistance for stress reaction in Kyiv. New photos from the State Emergency Service in Kyiv show firefighters extinguishing fires and burned cars. ДСНС reports a total of 7 injured, including 2 children. ASTRA's visuals from Kyiv further underscore the civilian impact. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны confirms impacts and damage in Kyiv and Cherkasy, with residential areas affected. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video evidence of impacts on a multi-story building in Kyiv and photos confirming the fire on the 12th floor of a residential building in Obolonskyi district has been extinguished. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports four residents of Kyiv have sought medical assistance, receiving aid on the spot, citing Mayor Klitschko. Head of Kharkiv Oblast Administration reports a FAB-500 strike on a residential area in Zolochiv, with 3 rescued and 2 children injured. Civilian casualties confirmed due to Ukrainian FPV drone attack near Shchegolyok (2 killed, 3 injured) and an explosive device dropped near Zvannoye (1 killed) in Kursk Oblast. Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War reports on psychological support for families of captured/missing personnel, highlighting the human cost of the conflict. РБК-Україна reports that the number of injured in the May 2nd Kharkiv drone attack has increased to 51, including two girls. New information from the Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War highlights concerns about the poor conditions of detention and lack of medical aid for Ukrainian prisoners of war. Kyiv City Military Administration is working to improve accessibility for veterans and wounded military personnel in Kyiv, acknowledging the human cost of the conflict and the need for support. (ASTRA, РБК-Україна, КМВА, ДСНС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS], Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Два майора, ТАСС, ASTRA, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, РБК-Україна, WarGonzo, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація))
• Global Defense Technology: Colonelcassad shares information and a video about a new French quadcopter. (Colonelcassad)
• Middle East Developments: ASTRA reports that several major international airlines have suspended flights to Israel after a claimed Houthi missile strike near Ben Gurion airport. WarGonzo reports on explosions at strategic facilities in Iran (power station near Tehran and a port in Bandar Abbas), speculating on potential causes. Rybar comments on the complex geopolitical dynamics in Syria, suggesting a potential, albeit unlikely, rapprochement between Hezbollah and HTS. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Israel has approved a plan to occupy the Gaza Strip, with the plan to be implemented after a visit by Trump next week, alongside ongoing efforts for a ceasefire and hostage release. (ASTRA, WarGonzo, Rybar, Оперативний ЗСУ)
• Ukrainian Internal Affairs/Infrastructure: Pipeline breakthrough under tram tracks in Kyiv's Voskresenka district, creating a sinkhole and halting tram traffic. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports that educational institutions here will receive over 33 million hryvnias for updating training facilities within the #100mastery project. Олексій Білошицький shares a video message about traffic violations and irresponsible behavior, likely related to road safety issues in Ukraine. Олександр Вілкул reports on a project with Luxembourg for the restoration of Kryvyi Rih, including educational support, grants for small and medium businesses, creation of training centers, provision of power stations, and renovation of shelters. Kyiv City Military Administration is working with the Kyiv School of Economics to audit a barrier-free route for veterans and wounded military personnel in Kyiv, highlighting efforts to improve accessibility and support for those injured. (РБК-Україна, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Олексій Білошицький, Олександр Вілкул, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація))
• Military-Themed Goods/Fundraising: Два майора shares a video from a blacksmith offering a knife for sale, potentially related to supporting military-affiliated individuals or activities. Два майора shares a video showing the delivery of supplies (camouflage nets, suits, meals) to the 18th Combined Arms Army. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video from an FPV drone operator thanking readers for helping acquire 200 "Electroclosers." Янус Путьконен - Новости и приветствия - МоЛНИЯ/ИНФОРМАЦИЯ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) shares a photo of "Popeda" vodka with nationalistic imagery. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is fundraising for Mavic 3 drones for paratroopers on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 is fundraising for equipment for a mobile dental clinic for military personnel. (Два майора, Два майора, Два майора, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Янус Путьконен - Новости и приветствия - МоЛНИЯ/ИНФОРМАЦИЯ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia), Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦)
• Political Developments in Romania: Басурин о главном reports on the first round of presidential elections here, highlighting a "pro-Russian" candidate leading. (Басурин о главном)
• Tokyo (Japan): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares photos of an "Immortal Regiment" event at the Russian Embassy here. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
• Beslan (North Ossetia-Alania, Russia): ТАСС reports Mishustin visited here to honor victims of the 2004 terrorist attack. (ТАСС)
• Sevastopol (Occupied Crimea): Alex Parker Returns reports that the Victory Day parade will not be held here, citing the Ministry of Defense's inability to ensure security. (Alex Parker Returns)
• North Korean IT Workers in US: Alex Parker Returns reports on thousands of North Korean IT workers allegedly using fake documents to work for US companies and send money to fund the North Korean regime. This is a new type of reported activity with potential geopolitical and security implications. (Alex Parker Returns)
• Support for Veterans in Russia: WarGonzo reports on a former soldier finding salvation in creative work after returning from the front, highlighting a project aimed at helping those needing support to find themselves in civilian life. This indicates efforts within Russia to address the needs of veterans. (WarGonzo)
• Treatment of Ukrainian Prisoners of War: New information from the Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War highlights ongoing concerns about the poor conditions of detention and lack of medical aid for Ukrainian prisoners of war in Russian captivity. (Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими)
• Destroyed Swedish Strv 122A Tank: Colonelcassad shares a video claiming a destroyed Swedish Strv 122A tank in Sumy Oblast, with commentary highlighting the ineffectiveness of anti-drone protection against certain drone types. This provides visual evidence of equipment losses and commentary on tactical lessons learned. (Colonelcassad)

Potential Future Developments

• Continued High Intensity in Kursk Oblast: The ongoing nature of the Ukrainian cross-border attempt, the commitment of armored and engineering assets, the reported establishment of a pontoon crossing, the confirmed destruction of Ukrainian equipment, the reported breach of Russian defensive lines, and the tragic confirmation of civilian casualties due to Ukrainian drone attacks suggest that fighting in Kursk Oblast will remain intense and carry significant humanitarian risks. The success or failure of Ukrainian efforts to breach Russian defenses and establish a foothold will be a critical development. The possibility of this being a diversion suggests that Russian attention may be drawn away from other potential areas of Ukrainian activity. Expect continued reports of equipment losses on both sides and civilian casualties in the border region due to drone and artillery fire. The arrest of a Russian military member for a serious crime in the area could also highlight potential internal issues and their impact. The differing accounts from Russian and Ukrainian sources regarding the success of the operation will likely continue, highlighting the information war. Russian efforts to destroy Ukrainian mine-clearing vehicles and target manpower concentrations across the Seym River are likely to continue. The status of the bridge in Zvannoye and efforts to repair or bypass it will be a relevant tactical development. The reported breach of the "dragon's teeth" indicates a new phase of the ground engagement. The reported concentration of Ukrainian forces in Sumy Oblast north of Pavlovka could indicate preparations for further activity in that area or serve as a feint. Russian air support is likely to remain active in countering Ukrainian ground movements in Kursk Oblast.
• Fluctuating Ground Combat Intensity on Other Fronts: The report of intense counter-battles and localized gains on the Dnipropetrovsk direction, claimed Russian advances on the Donetsk axis, the ongoing fighting in the Robotyne area on the Orikhiv direction, and the reported positional battles in the Velyka Novosilka area indicate that ground combat remains dynamic on other fronts. The reported Russian advances, if confirmed, suggest continued pressure on Ukrainian defensive lines in these areas. Expect continued back-and-forth fighting as both sides seek to gain or regain ground. Civilian casualties from strikes in Donetsk Oblast highlight the ongoing danger in populated areas near the front lines. The detailed analysis from DeepState regarding the Russian offensive near Zeleny Pole, including the reported use of motorcycles and localized Russian gains, indicates that similar tactical approaches might be employed in other areas. The reported strong Ukrainian defenses in areas like Konstantinovka and Kramatorsk suggest that these areas could become focal points if Russia attempts further advances requiring heavy fire support. Russian official reports on claimed Ukrainian losses across various fronts are likely to continue daily. The claim that Russian forces are nearing the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts suggests a potential for increased focus on this area. The successful Ukrainian defense against a powerful Russian assault on the Siversk direction using FPV drones highlights the continued importance of these systems in repelling ground attacks and suggests that Russian forces may continue to adapt their tactics, potentially using civilian vehicles for increased speed and maneuverability, despite their vulnerability.
• Continued Russian Aerial Attacks with Evolving Tactics: The combined drone and ballistic missile attack on Konotop, and the reported deliberate timing of strikes, suggest Russia is adapting its aerial attack tactics to maximize impact and potentially target emergency responders. Expect similar complex and potentially more lethal attacks in the future. The dynamic movements of drone groups across multiple oblasts indicate that a wide area of Ukraine remains under threat from aerial assaults. The confirmed use of FAB-500 guided aerial bombs on civilian areas like Zolochiv highlights the continued threat of these powerful munitions and the potential for significant civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Continued shelling of civilian infrastructure in areas like Nikopol district and communities in Synelnykove district is likely. Ukrainian Air Force warnings regarding KABs targeting various oblasts suggest these strikes will continue. A ballistic missile threat has been announced for Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating the continued use of this type of weapon.
• Continued Ukrainian Deep Strikes and Drone Operations: Ukraine is likely to continue targeting Russian military and industrial assets deep within Russia and in occupied territories. The reported damage to the "Strela" plant indicates a continued focus on disrupting Russian military production. The ongoing adaptation and development of Ukrainian naval drones suggest these will continue to pose a threat to Russian naval assets in the Black Sea. The tragic confirmation of civilian casualties in Kursk Oblast due to Ukrainian FPV drone attacks highlights the potential for unintended consequences of these deep strikes and could lead to increased scrutiny or changes in targeting protocols. Ukrainian fundraising efforts for drone-related equipment indicate the continued importance of these systems for their operations. The reported destruction of enemy heavy drones ("Yagi") by Ukrainian FPV drones in the air suggests an evolving counter-drone tactic. Ukrainian special forces (KRAKEN) are likely to continue conducting targeted operations, including sniper activity. Ukrainian forces are likely to continue employing FPV drones effectively against Russian ground assaults, potentially leading to further adaptation of Russian tactics.
• Escalation of Diplomatic and Political Pressure: Zelenskyy's announcement of upcoming sanctions against third countries helping Russia circumvent existing sanctions signals an intensification of economic pressure tactics. His public offer of a ceasefire under specific conditions is a significant diplomatic move that could influence international perceptions and put pressure on Russia. Discussions and statements regarding potential peace negotiations are likely to continue, with differing interpretations and conditions. The ongoing political maneuvering and pressures around figures like the Serbian President highlight the ongoing geopolitical tensions and efforts to influence international alignment. International reactions to political developments in countries like Germany, as evidenced by the commentary on the AfD party, could also impact broader geopolitical dynamics. The arrival of the new head of the US Embassy in Kyiv, with an emphasis on a policy aimed at ending the war, suggests continued US diplomatic engagement and potential efforts towards a resolution. The reported discussion among Western countries about providing additional Patriot systems indicates ongoing support for Ukraine's air defense capabilities. The outcome of the Romanian presidential election could influence regional dynamics and international support for Ukraine. The European Commission's plan to stop importing gas from Russia could increase economic pressure on Russia. The participation of the President of Mongolia in the Victory Day celebration in Moscow underscores Russia's efforts to maintain international ties. Israel's approved plan to occupy Gaza suggests potential shifts in the Middle East conflict that could have broader geopolitical implications. The announcement by Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia of a joint defense line project indicates a long-term strategic shift in the Baltic states aimed at bolstering their defenses against potential threats from Russia and Belarus, potentially influencing regional security dynamics and defense spending. New information regarding the challenges in locating and liberating Ukrainian prisoners of war held by Russia suggests continued diplomatic and negotiation efforts will be crucial, alongside addressing concerns about their welfare.
• Continued Information Warfare and Propaganda: Both sides will continue to actively utilize information operations to shape narratives, highlight successes, and demoralize the opponent, particularly in the lead-up to May 9th. Russian sources will likely continue to emphasize Ukrainian losses and failures (including claimed desertion), while Ukrainian sources will highlight Russian aggression and their own defensive successes (including successful targeted strikes and downing of aircraft) and human stories of resilience. Narratives surrounding military aid and internal political situations in other countries will likely be incorporated into these operations. Russian psychological operations aimed at influencing the civilian population in occupied territories are expected to continue, particularly in areas where they anticipate potential advances. Internal dissent within the Russian military blogging community, as indicated by Sladkov+'s post, could also be leveraged by Ukrainian information operations. Ukrainian information operations targeting internal Russian issues, such as alleged conflicts within occupied administrations and highlighting the emigration of opposition figures, are likely to continue. Russian efforts to showcase their military capabilities and nationalistic symbols ahead of Victory Day will remain prominent. The use of events like the "Immortal Regiment" in international settings is a clear information operation aimed at promoting Russia's historical narrative. Russian reporting on perceived Ukrainian terrorist threats within Russia is likely to continue. The cancellation of the Victory Day parade in Sevastopol could become a point of information warfare. Russian military bloggers will likely continue to frame Ukrainian actions in Kursk Oblast as desperate attempts for symbolic victories. Russian sources are expected to continue highlighting visual evidence of destroyed Ukrainian equipment. Russian sources will likely continue to promote narratives of veteran reintegration as a sign of societal support for those who participated in the conflict. Ukrainian sources will continue to highlight the bravery and effectiveness of their military personnel.
• Continued Focus on Counter-Drone and Air Defense Measures: The widespread use of drones by both sides and the confirmed interceptions in various regions, including Murmansk and Sumy, underscore the continued critical need for effective counter-drone measures and air defense systems. Russian efforts to counter Ukrainian drones, including the use of UAVs to target Ukrainian artillery, are expected to continue. Ukrainian efforts to destroy Russian artillery and mortars with targeted strikes, as demonstrated by the "Omega" special forces video, highlight the importance of counter-battery fire. The success of Ukrainian air defense and targeting in Crimea will likely prompt Russia to enhance their air defense and protection of air assets in that region. The reported destruction of enemy heavy drones ("Yagi") by Ukrainian FPV drones in the air suggests a new dimension in counter-drone tactics. The successful use of FPV drones by Ukrainian forces to repel a Russian assault on the Siversk direction underscores their effectiveness in countering ground attacks and will likely lead to continued investment in and adaptation of these systems.
• Continued Strain on Russia's Relationship with Uzbekistan: The diplomatic incident involving the summoning of the Russian Ambassador to Uzbekistan over the treatment of migrants highlights a potential strain on Russia's relationship with a key Central Asian partner. This could have implications for labor migration and broader regional dynamics.
• Ongoing Discussion and Potential Shifts in European Defense Procurement: The report suggesting Europe's interest in developing independent sixth-generation fighter jets indicates ongoing discussions and potential future shifts in defense procurement strategies within European NATO members, potentially influenced by concerns about reliance on the US. The detailed information on British AS-90 transfers provides a concrete example of ongoing military aid and procurement processes.
• Continued Scrutiny of Human Rights and Legal Situation in Russia: The report on the arbitrary detention of a journalist and the appeal to the UN highlights continued international scrutiny of the human rights and legal situation in Russia. The emigration of opposition figures like Alexander Ryklin and Ekaterina Barabash due to perceived political pressure and legal issues further highlights the human rights situation.
• Continued Need for Public Support and Addressing Logistical Challenges for Russian Forces: The detailed list of supplies being transported by Два майора's fundraising effort underscores the ongoing logistical needs of Russian forces and the continued reliance on public support to address these needs, potentially indicating shortcomings in official supply chains. The fundraising efforts by Ukrainian units for drones also highlight the importance of public support for acquiring necessary equipment. Fundraising efforts for medical support for Ukrainian military personnel underscore the ongoing need for healthcare resources.
• Continued Regional Tensions between India and Pakistan: The ballistic missile test by Pakistan amidst tensions with India suggests that this regional dynamic will continue to be a factor in the broader geopolitical landscape.
• Continued Focus on Investing in Ukrainian Infrastructure and Education: The report on the funding for vocational training in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and the restoration project in Kryvyi Rih highlight ongoing efforts to invest in Ukraine's long-term recovery and development, even amidst the conflict, focusing on education, business support, and infrastructure resilience. Efforts to create barrier-free infrastructure in Kyiv for veterans and wounded personnel underscore the focus on supporting those impacted by the conflict.
• Internal Developments in the Middle East: Israel's approved plan to occupy Gaza suggests a potential new phase in the conflict there, which could have regional and international repercussions.
• Increased Focus on Countering Illicit Financial Activities Supporting North Korea: The report on North Korean IT workers in the US highlights a specific area of concern regarding illicit financial activities that could be addressed through increased scrutiny and enforcement.
• Addressing Veteran Welfare in Russia: The promotion of creative projects for former soldiers suggests a recognition within Russia of the need to support veterans and help them reintegrate into civilian life.
• Continued Efforts to Address Prisoner of War Issues: The detailed reporting on the activities of the Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters highlights the ongoing efforts to address the complex issues surrounding prisoners of war, including their location, release, and well-being.

Potential Indicators

• Independent verification of claimed territorial changes, particularly those highlighted by Russian sources on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk (Konstantinovka), Southern Donetsk, Lyman, Novopavlivsk, and Krasnolimansk directions, and the claimed liberation of Malinovka and advances towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Independent verification of the situation in Kotlyarovka, Vesele, Shevchenko, Volne Pole, Ridkodub, Nove-Zelena Dolyna, Novomykhailivka, Hrekivka, Olhivka, and Torske. Independent verification of claimed Russian advances near the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts, specifically in the areas of Kotlyarivka, Novoselky, and Novodarivka.
• Further reports or visual evidence of drone activity and air defense engagements in Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Kherson Oblasts, as well as in Russian regions like Bryansk, Belgorod, and Murmansk. Any further reports of civilian casualties or damage in Kherson or in Russian border regions from drone attacks or shelling, particularly in Kursk Oblast. Further ballistic missile threat alerts or strikes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Further reports on drone movements in Zhytomyr and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts.
• Any observable changes in the intensity or direction of ground assaults on the various axes. Further reports or visual evidence regarding the situation on the Konstantinovsky direction and the involvement of specific units. Any observable increase in military activity or changes in troop concentrations in Sumy Oblast, particularly north of Pavlovka. Further reports or visual evidence of Russian forces using adapted civilian vehicles in assaults. Further reports on the effectiveness of Ukrainian FPV drones in repelling ground assaults on the Siversk direction or other fronts.
• Further reports or visual evidence confirming the downing of a second Russian aircraft in Crimea within 24 hours and details regarding the circumstances of its downing. Any observable changes in Russian naval and air force tactics in the Black Sea in response to recent Ukrainian successes against their air assets.
• Information regarding the specific entities and schemes in third countries that Ukraine intends to sanction. The implementation and impact of these sanctions.
• Continued dissemination of specific information operations by both sides, including narratives surrounding military successes, casualties, and the impact of attacks on civilian infrastructure. Any further content related to Victory Day commemorations and associated propaganda. Any further commentary or actions related to the diplomatic incident with Uzbekistan. Continued use of interviews with prisoners of war in information operations by both sides, particularly focusing on morale and orders. Reports on the effectiveness of Russian psychological operations in Kherson. Continued Ukrainian information operations targeting internal Russian issues. Continued showcasing of military capabilities and nationalistic symbols by Russia. Further reports or visual evidence of the "Immortal Regiment" event in international settings. Continued Russian reporting on perceived Ukrainian terrorist threats within Russia. Further reports or analysis on the cancellation of the Victory Day parade in Sevastopol and its implications. Continued Russian military blogger commentary framing Ukrainian actions in Kursk Oblast as symbolic provocations. Further visual evidence of destroyed Ukrainian or Russian equipment shared by either side. Continued promotion of veteran reintegration initiatives in Russia. Continued highlighting of Ukrainian military personnel's bravery and effectiveness.
• Reports or demonstrations of effective counter-drone and air defense measures by both sides. Continued reports of successful Ukrainian targeted strikes against Russian artillery and mortars. Further reports or visual evidence of Ukrainian FPV drones destroying enemy heavy drones in the air. Further reports or visual evidence of Ukrainian special forces (KRAKEN) operations.
• Statements or actions from the Uzbek government or other international actors regarding the treatment of Uzbek labor migrants in Russia.
• Further developments in discussions or concrete steps towards the development of independent European fighter jets.
• Further reports or international actions regarding the human rights and legal situation in Russia, including follow-ups on the journalist's case. Any further reports of opposition figures leaving Russia due to political pressure.
• Continued fundraising efforts by Russian military bloggers and reports on the impact of these efforts on supplying troops on the front lines. Continued fundraising efforts by Ukrainian military units.
• Any observable impact of the increase in Ukrainian military personnel contracts on the strength and deployment of Ukrainian forces.
• Further reporting or analysis on the use of former inmates in the Russian military and its potential impact on unit effectiveness and discipline.
• Any observable impact of claimed Russian advances towards the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, including increased military activity or changes in defensive posture in that region.
• Further details or independent verification of the claimed prevention of Ukrainian penetration into Kursk Oblast by "Akhmat" special forces.
• Continued reporting on the number of combat engagements and Russian losses by the Ukrainian General Staff.
• Any further reports or visual evidence of the use of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation on frontline cities.
• Statements or actions from the US or Russia regarding Zelenskyy's ceasefire proposal.
• Any further reports or analysis on the internal dissent and concerns within the Russian military blogging community, as highlighted by Sladkov+'s post.
• Further reporting on military posturing and tensions between India and Pakistan.
• Confirmation and analysis of the implications of the election results in Romania.
• Further details or visual evidence related to damaged Russian military equipment (like the tank shown by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) or defensive positions. Further reports or visual evidence of destroyed Swedish Strv 122A tanks or other Western equipment.
• Details on the specific curriculum and timeline for the updated vocational training programs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and the progress of the Kryvyi Rih restoration project. Reports on the implementation and impact of the barrier-free route project in Kyiv.
• Further developments in the approved Israeli plan to occupy the Gaza Strip and related diplomatic efforts.
• Reports on increased scrutiny or enforcement efforts regarding North Korean IT workers in the US.
• Further information or initiatives related to veteran welfare and reintegration in Russia.
• Further information or actions related to the conditions and potential release of Ukrainian prisoners of war.
• Progress and details regarding the joint defense line project by Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.

Operational Summary

The military situation remains characterized by widespread and intense ground combat across numerous fronts, with particularly high activity reported on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk (Konstantinovka), Southern Donetsk, Lyman, Novopavlivsk, Krasnolimansk, and now the Orikhiv direction (specifically Robotyne). Russian forces continue active offensive operations and claim localized advances and territorial gains in several areas, including the claimed liberation of Malinovka and advances towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and advances near Novooleksandrivka, Kotlyarivka, Novosilka, and Novodarivka. Ukraine is actively defending against these assaults, reporting the repelling of a high number of Russian attacks on multiple axes and successful targeted strikes against Russian military assets, including the regaining of positions in Lysivka. A significant development is the ongoing intense Ukrainian cross-border operation in Kursk Oblast, involving the use of mine-clearing vehicles and infantry to breach Russian defensive lines, facing strong Russian resistance including air support and drone strikes, and resulting in reported Ukrainian equipment losses and tragic civilian casualties due to Ukrainian drone attacks. Russia continues a widespread aerial bombardment campaign utilizing drones, heavy artillery, and guided aerial bombs across multiple Ukrainian oblasts, resulting in civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in cities like Kharkiv and Kherson, with new warnings for Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine has demonstrated enhanced capabilities in targeting Russian air assets, with President Zelenskyy confirming the downing of a second Russian aircraft in Crimea within 24 hours and highlighting the effectiveness of a naval drone strike against a Russian Su-30. Additionally, Ukrainian FPV drones are reportedly engaging and destroying enemy heavy drones in the air, and are proving effective in repelling Russian ground assaults, as seen on the Siversk direction. Ukraine is also conducting deep strikes into Russian territory and occupied Crimea with drones and unmanned boats, causing damage and casualties, including tragic civilian fatalities in Kursk Oblast. Both sides are actively engaged in information operations to shape narratives, highlight successes, and demoralize the opponent, with notable efforts around the upcoming May 9th commemorations, regarding military aid and personnel issues, and now targeting internal issues within occupied territories and highlighting political developments in neighboring countries. Russian military bloggers are actively framing the Ukrainian actions in Kursk Oblast as a symbolic, albeit unsuccessful, provocation ahead of May 9th. Zelenskyy has announced upcoming sanctions against third countries assisting Russia in circumventing existing sanctions, escalating economic pressure, and has publicly offered a conditional ceasefire. The conflict continues to have a significant humanitarian impact on civilians on both sides of the border, with ongoing casualties and damage to infrastructure. Logistical challenges and reliance on public support for equipping some units are evident on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides, with ongoing fundraising efforts for drones and medical supplies. Geopolitical tensions and regional developments, such as the India-Pakistan situation, the outcome of the Romanian presidential election, shifts in European defense planning (including the announced joint defense line by the Baltic states), and now developments in the Middle East conflict and reports of North Korean illicit financial activities in the US, continue to unfold alongside the conflict. Internal issues in Russia, including scrutiny of human rights, security concerns related to perceived Ukrainian threats, and potential dissent within certain circles, also remain relevant, alongside efforts to address veteran welfare. The arrival of the new head of the US Embassy in Kyiv is a notable diplomatic development. Investment in vocational training in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and restoration efforts in Kryvyi Rih highlight ongoing efforts to rebuild and develop Ukraine's infrastructure and workforce, alongside initiatives to improve accessibility for veterans in Kyiv. New information highlights ongoing efforts to locate and liberate Ukrainian prisoners of war and concerns about their detention conditions.

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Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations.