Sitrep 2025-05-05 12:01:47

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 5, 2025, 12:01 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment continues to be defined by intense ground combat, significant aerial and drone activity, and notable developments along the Ukrainian border with Russia. Recent information reinforces the ongoing nature of these activities and highlights specific areas of current focus. The Ukrainian attempt to breach the border in Kursk Oblast remains a significant point of contention, with conflicting reports from both sides on the progress and outcomes. Widespread Russian aerial activity, including the use of guided aerial bombs (KABs), persists across multiple Ukrainian oblasts. Ground engagements are reported with high intensity on several key axes. Diplomatic and political maneuvering continues, alongside internal issues and information operations by both sides.

Key updates and analysis from the new messages:

Renewed Ukrainian Cross-Border Attempt in Kursk Oblast and Intense Fighting: Multiple sources confirm a renewed attempt by Ukrainian forces to break through the state border in the area of Tyotkino and Popovo-Lezhachi in Kursk Oblast. Russian military bloggers and TASS report this attempt is supported by armored vehicles, including mine clearing vehicles (IMRs and UR-77s), suggesting efforts to create breaches in Russian minefields. Russian sources claim to have repelled the attempt, with losses of Ukrainian equipment, including IMRs, UR-77s, and quad bikes. WarGonzo notes this is not the first attempt in this area and claims Ukrainian forces are trying to destroy bridges over the Seym River and its tributaries to hinder Russian logistics. "«Зона СВО»" reports that Ukrainian forces attempted to cut off Tyotkino and used rockets overnight to blow up bridges before launching armored groups in the morning. They also claim heavy fighting is ongoing and that part of the Ukrainian equipment has been destroyed. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports that five Ukrainian soldiers were detected near the railway station in Tyotkino by aerial reconnaissance and retreated after a firefight. They also report the blowing up of a bridge near Zvanoye by the enemy and that Russian paratroopers prevented Ukrainian attempts to overcome minefield passages, destroying enemy vehicles. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" reports that the Ukrainian attempt involved two IMRs, a tank, and infantry on armored fighting vehicles, and that the tank and IMRs have already been destroyed. They also note that fighting is ongoing, and the enemy is pulling in forces. "Два майора" reiterates the attempt and reported destruction of equipment, noting that Ukrainian infantry from Ryzhevka, Sumy Oblast, attempted to penetrate but withdrew after taking fire, while equipment advanced from Bessalovka, Sumy Oblast. They also report a separate attempt towards Novy Put in the same district, where an IMR was used to clear a path for an advance. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" reports that Ukrainian forces on five quad bikes were detected and destroyed near Novy Put, but the attack continues, with fighting everywhere as the enemy brings in forces. They also note that poor weather conditions (rain) are hindering UAV operations. This confirms a significant and ongoing cross-border operation by Ukraine with the likely objective of creating a buffer zone or disrupting Russian operations, facing strong Russian resistance and leading to equipment losses for Ukraine. The specific targeting of bridges and the use of mine-clearing equipment highlight tactical objectives related to mobility and logistics.
High Intensity Ground Combat Across Multiple Axes: The Ukrainian General Staff reports a large number of combat engagements across various directions yesterday.
- Pokrovsk Direction: Five combat engagements near Vovchansk, Stroivka, and Tykhe, according to the General Staff. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports 5 enemy attacks in these areas yesterday, with Defenders destroying 69 personnel (34 KIA) and 77 units of equipment (1 artillery system, 1 anti-tank weapon, 19 vehicles, 1 EW system, 44 UAVs, 11 special equipment units), 72 shelters, an ammunition storage, and a fuel storage. This indicates continued, albeit slightly lower intensity compared to previous reports, fighting on this front, with notable Ukrainian defensive successes in inflicting casualties and destroying equipment and infrastructure.
- Kupiansk Direction: Seven enemy attacks repelled in the areas of Holubivka, Petropavlivka, and towards Pishchane, Hlushkivka, and Novoosynove. This indicates continued Russian pressure on this axis, being successfully repelled by Ukrainian forces.
- Lyman Direction: 22 enemy attacks repelled near Nove, Kopanky, Tverdokhlibove, Kolodyazi, and towards Zelena Dolyna, Lypove, Olhivka, Ridkodub. This highlights very high intensity fighting on this front, with Ukrainian forces successfully defending against numerous assaults.
- Siversk Direction: Three combat engagements repelled in the directions of Hryhorivka and Verkhnokamyanske. This indicates continued Russian pressure but successful Ukrainian defensive actions.
- Kramatorsk Direction: Ten combat engagements in the direction of Mayske, Bila Hora, and near Stupochky and Chasiv Yar. This indicates significant fighting around key areas on this axis, particularly Chasiv Yar.
- Toretsk Direction: 16 enemy attacks repelled in the areas of Toretsk, Druzhba, and towards Dyliyivka. This points to high intensity fighting on this front as well, with Ukrainian forces successfully defending. Сливочный каприз reports positional battles near Horlivka and that a Russian forward position near the railway station of Dyliivka came under Ukrainian shelling. They also claim that Russian forces expanded their control zone by at least 1 km west of Dachnoye on May 4th. This indicates continued Russian offensive efforts and claimed localized gains, alongside Ukrainian counter-battery fire.
- Novopavlivka Direction: 52 enemy assaults repelled near Kostyantynopil, Rivnopil, Novopil, Novosilka, Pryvilne, and towards Zelene Pole, Shevchenko, Bahatyr. This indicates extremely high intensity fighting and significant Russian efforts to advance, being met with successful Ukrainian defense.
- Orikhiv Direction: Three unsuccessful enemy attacks near Novoandriyivka, Pyatykhatky, and Stepove. This indicates ongoing but lower intensity fighting on this southern front, with Ukrainian forces holding their positions.
- Huliaipole Direction: Five enemy attacks in the area of Vysokye. This indicates continued Russian pressure on this front.
- Kursk Region: 23 Russian army assaults repelled. This aligns with the reports of ongoing cross-border activity and indicates significant Russian attempts to advance or counter Ukrainian actions in the border region.
- Konstantinovka Direction: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports that Russian forces are continuing to clear Yelyzavetivka and the area west of it, as well as the pocket between Yelyzavetivka and Myrolyubivka. They claim Russian forces are continuing their offensive towards Malynivka with a reported advance of 700m. They also claim successes in the direction of Nova Poltavka and north of Berezivka, taking several forest belts and consolidating in the southern part of Nova Poltavka. The 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment is reportedly clearing the southern part of Novoolenivka and pushing north. Russian forces from Zelene Pole have approached Oleksandropil and are preparing for an assault. This provides granular detail on claimed Russian tactical advances on this front, indicating multiple areas of ongoing offensive operations.
- Southern Donetsk Direction: Воин DV reports that UAV operators of the "Gnome" detachment of the 143rd Motorized Rifle Regiment are destroying Ukrainian equipment and fortifications using drops and FPV drones. This indicates ongoing drone warfare and Russian efforts to degrade Ukrainian defenses on this front.
- Zaporizhzhia Direction: "Два майора" reports that Russian paratroopers have advanced west of Malye Shcherbaki and cleared a difficult forest belt, but holding the area is challenging due to the large number of Ukrainian FPV drones (20-50 per point). They also report that Russian troops have dislodged Ukrainian forces from the brick factory area near Mala Tokmachka, after intense artillery and fiber-optic drone strikes, with continued strikes but no reported Russian entry into the factory yet. The Russian Aerospace Forces reportedly struck a Ukrainian object in Orikhiv, hitting personnel, equipment, and a UAV production facility. This provides detailed accounts of intense fighting, Russian localized advances, the significant impact of Ukrainian FPV drones, and Russian targeting of Ukrainian assets.
Persistent Russian Aerial and Drone Activity and Ukrainian Countermeasures:
- The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on the southeastern direction with a threat of aerial weapons. KABs are reported launched by enemy tactical aviation on Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
- ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports that Russian occupiers conducted 5 airstrikes with 6 KABs, used 65 kamikaze drones, and carried out 563 shellings against Ukrainian positions in their operational zone yesterday. This provides specific numbers for Russian aerial and shelling activity on the Kharkiv front, highlighting the significant pressure on Ukrainian defenders.
- Colonelcassad provides a detailed chronicle of Russian strikes on Ukraine on May 4th and 5th, listing locations and reported munitions (UMPK, Iskander-M, Geran/Gerbera, ballistic missile, RSZO). Notable targets include: Starokostiantyniv (Khmelnytskyi), various locations in Donbas, Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv (Chereshenky, Olshanske, Dobropole), Kirovohrad, Poltava (Kremenchuk), and Dnipropetrovsk (Novomoskovsk). This confirms widespread Russian strikes across multiple regions using various types of aerial and missile systems, including guided aerial bombs and Shahed drones. The video accompanying the post reportedly shows a continuing fire in Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, after previous strikes, suggesting secondary detonations.
- Kotsnews reports a massive drone attack on Kharkiv and the oblast last night, with "Gerans" hitting objects in the HTZ and Industrial districts, and explosions in other parts of the city. They claim the targets were military-industrial complex objects and Ukrainian troop locations, with strikes also reported in Izium, Zolochiv, and other settlements in Kharkiv Oblast. This aligns with Ukrainian reporting on high Russian aerial activity and provides claimed Russian targets.
- Colonelcassad reports that according to the regional FSB, 266 aerial attacks by Ukraine were thwarted over major cities in the DPR within a week. This indicates significant Ukrainian drone activity targeting occupied territories and Russian counter-drone efforts.
Internal Russian Issues and Propaganda:
- Новости Москвы shares a video of a rehearsal of the aerial part of the Victory Parade. This is part of the preparation for the upcoming Victory Day celebrations in Russia, a significant state event.
- TASS and Новости Москвы report disruptions in mobile communication and internet in Russia, with TASS quoting Beeline stating the issues are due to reasons beyond the operators' control and recommending Wi-Fi use. RSChS reports that internet access in Moscow may be limited due to security measures during the holidays. This indicates potential technical issues or intentional disruptions, possibly related to security during the upcoming Victory Day.
- TASS reports that "Alternative for Germany" (AfD) has challenged the counterintelligence decision to recognize it as right-wing extremist in court. This relates to internal German politics but is framed by TASS in a way that likely serves to highlight perceived political issues in Western countries.
- TASS reports that the Victory Day parade will not be held in Sevastopol for security reasons. This is a practical decision likely aimed at preventing potential Ukrainian attacks during the event.
- Mash na Donbasse reports that drinking and cooking with tap water in Donetsk will be prohibited for two days (May 14-15) due to chlorination. This highlights ongoing infrastructure and public health issues in occupied territories.
- Rybarev discusses the European Week of Immunization in Turkmenistan, framed with skepticism towards the WHO and European involvement. This is an information operation likely aimed at undermining trust in Western health organizations and influence in Central Asia.
- Новости Москвы reports on the arrest of fraudsters who staged over 500 car accidents since 2021 to claim insurance money. This is a domestic Russian crime report.
- «Зона СВО» shares a video with patriotic and motivational messaging about the "Russian spirit" and readiness to fight to the end. This is an example of Russian propaganda aimed at boosting morale and supporting the war effort.
Internal Ukrainian Issues:
- ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares historical photos of Ukrainian youth from the early 20th century. This is likely part of efforts to promote Ukrainian cultural identity and history.
- Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, and РБК-Україна report that the former Deputy Head of the Office of the President, Andriy Smyrnov, has been taken into custody by the High Anti-Corruption Court (VAKS) with the possibility of bail set at 18 million UAH. He is suspected of legalizing illegally obtained funds and receiving a large bribe. This indicates ongoing efforts to combat corruption within Ukraine.
- БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС commemorates the anniversary of the Azov Regiment's formation, detailing its history and role in key battles. This is an important narrative for Ukraine, highlighting the valor and significance of this unit.
- БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a post claiming that the training time for Russian assault troops is being significantly shortened, citing the example of a soldier who reportedly deployed and went missing on a combat mission within days of signing his contract. They use a sarcastic tone to highlight alleged poor training and high casualty rates among Russian forces.
Cybersecurity Developments:
- РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report that Russian hacker group DDOSIA (NoName057) attacked several websites of the Romanian government and presidential candidates on the day of the presidential election (May 4th). Targets included the Constitutional Court, government portal, Foreign Ministry, and websites of four presidential candidates. This indicates continued Russian cyber activity targeting European nations, likely aimed at disrupting democratic processes and sowing discord.
Other Information:
- 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 announces an air raid alert in communities of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, excluding Zaporizhzhia city. This is a standard operational alert.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Kursk Oblast (Russia): Renewed Ukrainian attempt to break through the state border near Tyotkino and Popovo-Lezhachi. Attacks supported by armored vehicles and mine clearing equipment. Claimed Russian repulsion of the attack with losses of Ukrainian equipment (IMRs, UR-77s, quad bikes). Claimed Ukrainian attempt to destroy bridges over the Seym River and its tributaries. Reports of a Ukrainian attempt to cut off Tyotkino and use rockets to blow up bridges overnight. Reported firefight near the Tyotkino railway station with Ukrainian soldiers retreating. Blowing up of a bridge near Zvanoye by Ukrainian forces reported. Ukrainian attempt towards Novy Put with an IMR reported. Fighting ongoing, enemy pulling in forces. 23 Russian army assaults repelled in the region yesterday. Russian sappers conducting demining operations. (Военкор Котенок, ТАСС, WarGonzo, «Зона СВО», Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора)
Pokrovsk Direction: Five combat engagements yesterday near Vovchansk, Stroivka, and Tykhe. Ukrainian forces inflicted significant casualties (69 personnel, 34 KIA) and destroyed equipment (77 units) and infrastructure (72 shelters, ammunition and fuel storages). (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦)
Kupiansk Direction: Seven enemy attacks repelled yesterday near Holubivka, Petropavlivka, and towards Pishchane, Hlushkivka, and Novoosynove. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Lyman Direction: 22 enemy attacks repelled yesterday near Nove, Kopanky, Tverdokhlibove, Kolodyazi, and towards Zelena Dolyna, Lypove, Olhivka, Ridkodub. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Siversk Direction: Three combat engagements repelled yesterday in the directions of Hryhorivka and Verkhnokamyanske. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Kramatorsk Direction: Ten combat engagements yesterday in the direction of Mayske, Bila Hora, and near Stupochky and Chasiv Yar. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Toretsk Direction: 16 enemy attacks repelled yesterday in the areas of Toretsk, Druzhba, and towards Dyliyivka. Positional battles near Horlivka. Ukrainian shelling of a Russian forward position near the Dyliivka railway station. Claimed Russian expansion of control zone west of Dachnoye by at least 1 km (May 4th). (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Сливочный каприз)
Novopavlivka Direction: 52 enemy assaults repelled yesterday near Kostyantynopil, Rivnopil, Novopil, Novosilka, Pryvilne, and towards Zelene Pole, Shevchenko, Bahatyr. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Orikhiv Direction: Three unsuccessful enemy attacks yesterday near Novoandriyivka, Pyatykhatky, and Stepove. Russian Aerospace Forces strike on a Ukrainian object in Orikhiv, hitting personnel, equipment, and a UAV production facility. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Два майора)
Huliaipole Direction: Five enemy attacks yesterday in the area of Vysokye. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Konstantinovka Direction: Claimed Russian clearing of Yelyzavetivka and area west, and pocket between Yelyzavetivka and Myrolyubivka. Claimed Russian offensive towards Malynivka with 700m advance. Claimed Russian successes in the direction of Nova Poltavka and north of Berezivka, taking forest belts and consolidating in southern Nova Poltavka. Claimed Russian clearing of southern Novoolenivka and pushing north. Claimed Russian forces from Zelene Pole approached Oleksandropil and preparing for assault. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Southern Donetsk Direction: Russian UAV operators destroying Ukrainian equipment and fortifications using drops and FPV drones. (Воин DV)
Zaporizhzhia Direction: Claimed Russian paratrooper advance west of Malye Shcherbaki and clearing of a forest belt, facing high number of Ukrainian FPV drones. Claimed Russian troops dislodged Ukrainian forces from the brick factory area near Mala Tokmachka after intense artillery and fiber-optic drone strikes, with continued strikes. Russian Aerospace Forces strike on a Ukrainian object in Orikhiv, hitting personnel, equipment, and a UAV production facility. (Два майора)
Kharkiv Oblast: Russian airstrikes with KABs reported. Russian drone attack last night, with "Gerans" hitting objects in HTZ and Industrial districts, and explosions in other parts of the city. Claimed targets were military-industrial complex objects and Ukrainian troop locations. Strikes also reported in Izium, Zolochiv, and other settlements. Continuing fire reported in Izium after previous strikes. 5 airstrikes with 6 KABs, 65 kamikaze drones, and 563 shellings yesterday on Ukrainian positions in the Kharkiv operational zone. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України, Kotsnews, Colonelcassad, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦)
Sumy Oblast: Russian strikes with UMPK and RSZO reported on May 4th and 5th, including near Okhtyrka and in Bilopillia. Russian sappers conducting demining operations in border areas. Ukrainian infantry from Ryzhevka attempted to penetrate Russian territory in Kursk Oblast. (Colonelcassad, ТАСС, Два майора)
Donetsk Oblast: Russian strikes with UMPK and "Geran/Gerbera" drones reported on May 4th and 5th, including in Donbas (general), Sloviansk, and Dobropillia. 266 Ukrainian aerial attacks thwarted over major cities in the "DPR" within a week. Ukrainian shelling of a Russian forward position near the Dyliivka railway station. Claimed Russian expansion of control zone west of Dachnoye. (Colonelcassad, Сливочный каприз, Colonelcassad)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: KABs reported launched by enemy tactical aviation. Air raid alert in communities of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, excluding Zaporizhzhia city. Russian strikes with UMPK and "Geran/Gerbera" drones reported on May 4th. Russian Aerospace Forces strike on a Ukrainian object in Orikhiv, hitting personnel, equipment, and a UAV production facility. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Colonelcassad, Два майора)
Kherson Oblast: Russian strikes with Iskander-M reported on May 4th in Chereshenky. (Colonelcassad)
Mykolaiv Oblast: Russian strikes with "Geran/Gerbera" drones reported on May 4th and 5th in Olshanske and Dobropillia (distinct from Donetsk Dobropillia). (Colonelcassad)
Kirovohrad Oblast: Russian strikes with "Geran/Gerbera" drones reported on May 4th and 5th in Kirovohrad and Kirovohrad Oblast (general). (Colonelcassad)
Poltava Oblast: Russian strikes with "Geran/Gerbera" drones reported on May 4th and 5th in Kremenchuk. (Colonelcassad)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Russian strikes with UMPK and "Geran/Gerbera" drones reported on May 4th and 5th in Novomoskovsk. (Colonelcassad)
Chernihiv Oblast: Russian strikes with UMPK reported on May 4th. (Colonelcassad)
Khmelnytskyi Oblast: Russian strikes with "Geran" drones reported on May 4th in Starokostiantyniv. (Colonelcassad)
Odesa: Ballistic missile target in the direction of Odesa reported on May 5th. (Colonelcassad)
Sevastopol (Occupied Crimea): Victory Day parade canceled for security reasons. (ТАСС)
Donetsk (Occupied): Tap water use restricted for two days due to chlorination. (Mash на Донbasse)
Romania: Russian hacker group DDOSIA attacked government and presidential candidate websites on May 4th. (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ)

Potential Future Developments

Continued Ukrainian Cross-Border Operations and Escalation: The renewed and seemingly multi-pronged Ukrainian attempt to breach the border in Kursk Oblast, utilizing armored vehicles and mine-clearing equipment, suggests a determined effort to establish a presence on Russian territory. This could be aimed at creating a "buffer zone," diverting Russian resources from other fronts, or achieving a propaganda victory ahead of Russian Victory Day. Expect continued intense fighting in these border areas, with high potential for casualties and equipment losses on both sides. The targeting of bridges indicates efforts to disrupt Russian logistics and freedom of maneuver. Further attempts on other sections of the border in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts are possible.
Sustained High Intensity Ground Combat: The consistently high number of combat engagements reported on key axes, particularly Pokrovsk, Lyman, Novopavlivka, and Toretsk, indicates that intense ground fighting will continue to be a major feature of the conflict. Russian claims of localized advances on the Toretsk, Konstantinovka, and Zaporizhzhia directions suggest continued Russian offensive pressure aimed at achieving incremental gains. The effectiveness of Ukrainian defensive actions in repelling numerous assaults will be crucial in preventing significant Russian breakthroughs.
Persistent and Widespread Russian Aerial and Drone Attacks: The continued reporting of numerous Russian drone groups across various oblasts and the detailed chronicle of widespread strikes using various aerial munitions indicate a high probability of continued Russian aerial attacks targeting military and civilian infrastructure across Ukraine. The intensity of drone attacks on the Kharkiv front remains particularly high. Ukrainian air defense efforts will continue to be critical in mitigating the impact of these attacks, but a significant volume of drones and missiles will likely continue to reach their targets.
Increased Focus on Counter-Drone and Electronic Warfare: The significant use of drones by both sides, highlighted by Russian reports of Ukrainian FPV drone effectiveness and Russian efforts to counter them and target Ukrainian UAV facilities and command posts, indicates that electronic warfare and counter-drone capabilities will become even more crucial. Fundraising efforts for drones and related equipment underscore their importance.
Information Operations and Political Messaging Ahead of Victory Day: Both sides will likely intensify information operations in the lead-up to and during Russian Victory Day (May 9th). Russia will likely use the event to promote national unity, highlight claimed military successes (like repelling border incursions and destroying Ukrainian equipment), and garner international support. Ukraine will likely highlight Russian losses, alleged war crimes, and the ongoing nature of the conflict, while also emphasizing their resistance and the importance of international aid.
Continued Cybersecurity Threats: The reported Russian cyberattack on Romanian government and presidential candidate websites suggests a continued willingness by Russia to engage in cyber operations against European nations, particularly around significant political events. Similar attacks targeting other countries or critical infrastructure are possible.
Addressing Internal Issues: The arrest of the former Deputy Head of the Office of the President in Ukraine signals ongoing efforts to address corruption, which could have implications for public trust and governance. In Russia, reported disruptions to mobile communication and internet may continue, potentially linked to security measures around upcoming holidays. Issues related to water supply and infrastructure in occupied territories will likely persist.
Impact of Weather on Operations: The report of rain hindering UAV operations in the Kursk region highlights the continued impact of weather conditions on military activities, particularly those relying on aerial reconnaissance and strike capabilities.

Potential Indicators

Independent verification or refutation of claimed territorial changes, particularly on the Toretsk, Konstantinovka, and Zaporizhzhia directions. Any observable shifts in the front lines in these areas.
Further reports and visual evidence regarding the outcome of the Ukrainian cross-border attempt in Kursk Oblast, including the scale of equipment losses and any sustained presence on Russian territory. Reports on damage to bridges in the area.
Any changes in the intensity or location of Russian aerial and drone attacks across Ukraine. Specific targeting patterns and the types of munitions used.
Reports on the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense systems in intercepting incoming Russian drones and missiles.
Observable changes in Russian or Ukrainian tactics in response to the continued high volume of drone activity and the increasing importance of electronic warfare.
Statements or actions by Russian officials or media during the lead-up to and during Victory Day that provide insight into their strategic messaging and narratives.
Further reports or investigations into the alleged corruption case involving the former Deputy Head of the Office of the President in Ukraine. The outcome of his court proceedings.
Continued reports of disruptions to mobile communication and internet in Russia, and any official explanations or justifications.
Any reports on further Russian cyberattacks targeting European nations or international organizations.
Reports on the impact of weather conditions on military operations in various sectors of the front.

Operational Summary

The current operational picture is marked by persistent high-intensity ground combat on key eastern and southern fronts, including significant Russian assault efforts on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Novopavlivka, and Toretsk directions. A renewed and potentially larger-scale Ukrainian cross-border operation is underway in Kursk Oblast, utilizing armored and mine-clearing equipment, aimed at establishing a presence on Russian territory, and facing strong Russian resistance. Widespread Russian aerial and drone activity continues to impact multiple Ukrainian regions, with specific focus on the Kharkiv front, and a detailed chronicle of strikes highlights the breadth of Russian targeting. Diplomatic maneuvering and information operations persist, with Russia preparing for Victory Day and engaging in cyber activities against European nations. Internally, Ukraine is addressing corruption concerns, while Russia is dealing with infrastructure issues in occupied territories and potential communication disruptions. The conflict remains dynamic, with a high reliance on unmanned systems and continued efforts by both sides to achieve tactical gains and shape the narrative. The outcome of the Ukrainian cross-border attempt and the continued intensity of ground combat on key axes are critical areas to monitor in the immediate future.