Sitrep 2025-05-05 07:32:38

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 5, 2025, 07:31 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational picture is characterized by continued widespread Russian aerial activity and intense ground combat across multiple fronts. A significant development is the scale of the overnight Russian drone attack, reported as involving 116 strike UAVs and 21 decoy drones, primarily targeting Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts, with 42 strike drones confirmed downed and 21 decoys lost without impact. This was a combined attack on Sumy Oblast, also involving two Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from Kursk Oblast. An infrastructure object was destroyed in Konotop as a result of this attack, but no casualties were reported. Multiple explosions were heard in Kropyvnytskyi, and a repeated explosion was reported, correlating with the reported westward movement of drones in Kirovohrad Oblast. Temporary restrictions were imposed and then lifted at Moscow's Domodedovo and also at Nadym airports, likely in response to claimed Ukrainian drone activity. Russia claims to have shot down a total of 26 Ukrainian drones overnight, with 17 over Bryansk, 5 over Kaluga, and 4 over Moscow Oblasts.

Ground combat remains highly active, with the Ukrainian General Staff reporting 269 combat engagements over the past 24 hours. The most intense fighting continues on the Pokrovsk direction (115 assaults reported), followed by the Novopavlivka (52 assaults), Lyman (22 attacks), and Kursk (23 attacks) directions. Russian sources claim advances on the Pokrovsk direction (south of Stara Mykolaivka, between Stara Mykolaivka and Kalynove, and near Novopoltavka and Dachne), on the Lyman direction (south and southeast of Nove), on the Sumy direction (in the vicinity of Bilovody and Loknya), and in the eastern part of Kotliarivka on the Pokrovsk direction. They also claim to have almost cleared Yelyzavetivka on the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces claim to have destroyed Ukrainian positions and equipment in the vicinity of Bohatyr on the Southern Donetsk direction and in Orikhiv on the Zaporizhzhia direction using FAB-500s and FPV drones. Ukrainian forces report repelling numerous assaults across these directions and significant estimated Russian losses over the past day, including 1260 personnel, 5 tanks, and 43 artillery systems. Tactical adaptation by Russian forces using motorcycles to avoid drone and artillery fire near Kupiansk has been observed and countered. Russian tactical aviation activity continues to pose a threat in northeastern and southeastern directions, with KAB launches reported towards Sumy Oblast.

Diplomatic and political developments include continued commentary from Donald Trump, who mentioned having "very good discussions" recently regarding Ukraine and Russia and ordering 100% tariffs on foreign films. The first round of the Romanian presidential elections saw an ultra-right candidate, George Simion, who is characterized as anti-Western and pro-Trump, leading significantly and proceeding to the second round. The Slovakian Vice-Speaker reiterated concerns about the risk of a third world war. Russian sources are promoting narratives surrounding the 2014 Odesa tragedy and dismissing Ukrainian warnings of potential Russian false flag operations for May 9th. Internal Russian issues include administrative information on migration affairs and a request for a probe into migrant subsidies, as well as claims of preventing a terrorist attack in Dagestan and detaining an individual in Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug preparing a railway attack for Ukraine. Russian military bloggers continue to fundraise for equipment and discuss the conflict, with some noting the reported depletion of artillery from storage bases. Russian sources also reported the development of a new electronic warfare system capable of detecting and suppressing drones. The start of the "Immortal Regiment" action in Tokyo is noted as part of Russian information operations.

Key updates and analysis from the new messages:

Large-Scale Russian Aerial Attack and Interceptions: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provide details of a major overnight Russian aerial attack involving 116 strike UAVs and 21 decoy drones. They report confirming the downing of 42 strike drones and that 21 decoys were lost without achieving their objectives. The attack originated from Kursk, Orel, Millerovo (Russia), and occupied Prymorsk (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). This scale of attack indicates a continued and potentially escalating Russian air campaign aiming to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. The decoys suggest an effort to confuse and saturate defense systems. The successful downing of 42 drones highlights the continued effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense, but the high number of incoming drones underscores the challenge. Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts were reported as affected. ASTRA echoed this report, specifically mentioning the attack on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts.
Combined Attack on Sumy Oblast: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports that Sumy Oblast was attacked with two Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles launched from Kursk Oblast, in addition to the drones. The coordinated use of ballistic missiles and a large number of drones on the same region indicates Russia is employing multi-layered attack tactics, likely to increase the probability of targets being hit and to strain air defenses. The mayor of Konotop confirmed that the city was attacked by both drones and ballistic missiles, resulting in the destruction of an infrastructure object but no casualties. Два майора and Оперативний ЗСУ also reported on the attack on Konotop.
Repeated Explosions in Kropyvnytskyi: РБК-Україна and Суспільне report hearing a repeated explosion in the Kropyvnytskyi area. This aligns with earlier reports of drones in Kirovohrad Oblast heading westward, where Kropyvnytskyi is located, and suggests a potential targeting of infrastructure in the area.
Temporary Airport Restrictions in Russia: ASTRA and Оперативний ЗСУ report that temporary restrictions were introduced at Nadym Airport in Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. This follows earlier reports of restrictions at Domodedovo Airport in Moscow, now lifted. Such restrictions are typically implemented due to perceived drone threats and suggest that Ukrainian drone activity is impacting Russian civilian infrastructure, even in areas far from the front lines (Nadym is over 2500 km from the Ukrainian border).
Russian Claims of Drone Interceptions over Russia: Минобороны РФ, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, AV БогомаZ, Два майора, and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 report that Russian air defense claims to have intercepted and destroyed 26 Ukrainian drones overnight (between 23:00 UTC May 4 and 02:30 UTC May 5): 17 over Bryansk Oblast, 5 over Kaluga Oblast, and 4 over Moscow Oblast. This indicates continued Ukrainian efforts to strike targets within Russia, with the reported high number of interceptions over Bryansk Oblast suggesting this is a significant area of focus for Ukrainian drone operations.
Russian Claims of Advances and Intense Fighting: Russian sources provide updates on ground combat:
- Sumy Direction: Рыбарь and Два майора claim Russian assault troops have advanced in the vicinity of Bilovody and Loknya and captured one Ukrainian soldier. WarGonzo reports fighting in these areas and also in Vodolagi. This suggests continued Russian ground activity in the border areas of Sumy Oblast, potentially aimed at creating a buffer zone as previously reported. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shared a video claiming to show a Russian attack on Bilovody involving a column of Western-made armored vehicles, which were reportedly hit by drones.
- Lyman Direction: Рыбарь and Два майора report Russian forces have advanced on a wide front south and southeast of Nove, gaining up to 1.7 km in depth. They also report fighting for Lypove and towards Ridkodub.
- Novopavlivka Direction: Рыбарь reports Russian assault groups have reached the outskirts of Kotliarivka, and its capture would open the way to Novopavlivka and allow for expanding the front towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Два майора reports Russian forces advancing in the eastern part of Kotliarivka and continuing assault actions to the west and south, as well as assaulting tree lines near Balka Shyroka. WarGonzo also reports ongoing storming of Kotliarivka with fierce Ukrainian resistance. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shared a video claiming to show Russian forces breaching Ukrainian defenses and attacking in the southeastern part of Bohatyr on the Southern Donetsk direction, using artillery and aviation, and destroying Ukrainian vehicles attempting to bring up reserves.
- Pokrovsk Direction: Два майора and «Зона СВО» report that the Konstantinovka direction (part of the Pokrovsk direction) is causing significant concern for Ukrainian channels, with fighting reported on the eastern outskirts of Malynivka, near Vodyane Druhe, Novoolenivka, Nova Poltavka, and Romanivka. They claim Russian forces have advanced from the liberated Tarasivka towards Oleksandropil. WarGonzo reports fighting for access to Malynivka with reported advances to the eastern outskirts. Russian claims of clearing and demining in Yelyzavetivka on the Pokrovsk direction are also reiterated by Дневник Десантника🇷🇺.
- Southern Donetsk Direction: Два майора and «Зона СВО» report that forces are completing preparations for the liberation of Bohatyr and Otradne. WarGonzo reports fierce fighting in Bohatyr, sometimes turning into counter-engagements, and continued fighting near Otradne and towards Oleksiivka. Воин DV shared a video claiming Russian Su-34s used FAB-500s with UMPK to strike Ukrainian positions in Bohatyr.
- Zaporizhzhia Front (Orikhiv Direction): Два майора and «Зона СVO» report positional battles near Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka (where a Ukrainian reconnaissance group was reportedly destroyed), Shcherbaky, Stepove, and Kamianske. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports positional battles near Shcherbaky, Stepove, and Kamianske, and that airborne forces have advanced west of Mali Shcherbaky, clearing a difficult tree line despite intense FPV drone use by Ukraine. They also claim Russian forces have pushed Ukraine out of the brick factory area near Mala Tokmachka after intense artillery and fiber-optic drone strikes, although entry into the factory hasn't been confirmed. ВКС РФ reportedly struck a Ukrainian object in Orikhiv with a powerful strike, hitting personnel, equipment, and a drone production site. Воин DV shared a video claiming Russian operators destroyed a Ukrainian temporary deployment point on the Polohy direction with a drone.
- Kramatorsk Direction: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Russian aviation is daily striking Ukrainian strongholds near Kotlyarivka (likely referring to the area west of the village), with three FAB-500 strikes reportedly destroying a Ukrainian stronghold northwest of Kotlyarivka. They also claim airborne forces near Chasiv Yar shot down a "Leleka-100" drone and liquidated a Ukrainian pickup truck. TASS reports Russian forces used "Geran-2" drones to strike ammunition depots and a repair workshop in Kramatorsk.
- Kursk Direction: Два майора and «Зона СВО» report a Ukrainian drone attack on the village of Budishche in Bolshesoldatsky district injured two civilians.
- Belgorod Section of the Border: Два майора and «Зона СВО» report that the "Sever" Group of Forces destroyed several dispersed Ukrainian groups in forested areas on the enemy territory in the direction of Popovka and Demidovka. They also report a Ukrainian drone attack on a bus in Bogun-Gorodok village injured three civilians. A mine detonation in Belovskoye village injured a civilian. Several other villages were under fire.
- Southern Direction (General): Сили оборони Півдня України reports 60 combat engagements over the past day in their operational zone, with 52 on the Novopavlivka direction, 5 on the Huliaipole direction, and 3 on the Orikhiv direction. They report repelling these assaults. They also report extensive Russian shelling (almost 400 shellings with ~1700 munitions) and drone activity (almost 670 drone-kamikaze strikes and over 325 drops from UAVs). They report 10 aerial strikes by Russia, including 9 KABs and 98 unguided aerial rockets (NARs), targeting civilian infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts.
Ukrainian Casualties and Equipment Losses (Russian Claims): The Russian Ministry of Defense, as reported by ТАСС, claimed Russian Su-25 crews conducted a missile strike on a concentration of Ukrainian military personnel in a forest in the "Center" Group of Forces responsibility zone. Colonelcassad shared a video claiming to show another destroyed American MRAP M1224 International MaxxPro on the Southern Donetsk direction. They also shared a video compilation of the work of fiber-optic FPV drone crews from the 40th Separate Marine Brigade on the Southern Donetsk direction, claiming to have hit artillery crews, a zenith machine gun, M109 howitzers, a T-64BV tank, a RADA ieMHR radar, and an International MaxxPro MRAP. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shared a video claiming destruction of a Ukrainian M113 and automotive equipment near Bohatyr.
Ukrainian Losses (Ukrainian General Staff): Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports estimated total Russian losses over the past day as 1260 personnel, 5 tanks, 8 armored fighting vehicles, 43 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 137 operational-tactical level UAVs, and 109 vehicles and fuel tanks. This indicates continued heavy Russian losses according to Ukrainian data. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна also reported these figures.
High Number of Russian Strikes and Drone Usage: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports that over the past day, Russia conducted one missile strike (one missile), 106 aerial strikes (including 167 guided aerial bombs and 13 on Kursk Oblast), 5550 shellings (121 from MLRS), and used 2628 kamikaze drones. This highlights the scale of Russian fire and drone activity across the front. Сили оборони Півдня України reported almost 400 shellings and almost 670 drone-kamikaze strikes in the Southern direction specifically.
Targeting of Civilian Infrastructure and Casualties: The destruction of an infrastructure object in Konotop (Sumy Oblast) and reported explosions in Kropyvnytskyi indicate continued Russian targeting of civilian infrastructure. Attacks on Nikopol district (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) with MLRS, heavy artillery, and drones also resulted in damaged property but no casualties reported by Ukrainian sources in this update. Two civilians were injured in a drone attack in Kursk Oblast, and three were injured in a drone attack in Belgorod Oblast. A civilian was injured by a mine in Belgorod Oblast, and an 80-year-old man was injured in Zabarino (Kherson Oblast). A man was severely injured by a "Lepestok" mine in Donetsk city. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports two men were injured in a guided aerial bomb strike on Orikhiv, and that over the past day, occupants conducted 449 strikes on 13 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including 7 aerial strikes (KABs), 265 drone attacks, 9 MLRS shellings, and 168 artillery shellings, resulting in damage to civilian properties.
Naval Situation: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports one Russian ship carrying up to 6 Kalibr missiles in the Black Sea and three ships (one with up to 8 Kalibrs) in the Mediterranean Sea. No Russian ships were observed in the Sea of Azov.
Russian Information Operations and Political Commentary: Colonelcassad is promoting "people's resistance" in Ukraine via a bot. Colonelcassad and АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reiterate claims regarding the alleged death of Finnish fighter Leo Aland, son of a Finnish politician, framing it as a mercenary who wanted to leave but was not allowed, and whose body was left on the battlefield, likely as part of an effort to discourage foreign fighters and portray the Ukrainian military negatively. TASS reports on the start of the "Immortal Regiment" action in Tokyo. Вадим Красносельский, president of the unrecognized Transnistria, accused Chisinau of blocking negotiations, as reported by TASS. TASS reports on Donald Trump's discussions regarding Ukraine and Russia, his statement on introducing 100% tariffs on foreign films to protect American cinema and counter "foreign propaganda," and his directive to reopen Alcatraz prison for dangerous criminals. ASTRA also reports on Trump's tariffs. Alex Parker Returns and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS discuss George Simion's win in the first round of the Romanian presidential elections, highlighting his anti-Ukrainian and pro-Russian stance and its potential implications for aid to Ukraine and NATO's eastern flank. NBC News (via Kotsnews) discusses Crimea as a key obstacle to peace talks and a recent US-Ukraine agreement on minerals, noting continued disagreements between the US, Ukraine, and Russia. Forbes (via Kotsnews) discusses Russian tactical adaptation using gyroscooters with mines as kamikaze drones. The Mirror (via Kotsnews) quotes Putin on controlling his anger and a Russian political ally criticizing Trump. Russian sources continue to push narratives about Ukraine preparing provocations for May 9th.
Russian Internal Security and Other Issues: Полиция Хабаровского края reports on two instances of residents being defrauded by phone scammers. TASS reports on Chubais not being interested in preserving his arrested assets in Russia. TASS reports Russia's FSB prevented a terrorist attack in Dagestan and detained a person in Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug preparing a railway attack for Ukraine. TASS also reports on the detention of 10 members of a criminal group facilitating scam calls using SIM boxes. Новости Москвы reports on experts predicting increased deepfake attacks against Russians. Новости Москвы also reports on a proposal to ban commercial use of horses in Moscow streets and a seasonal free pet vaccination program. ASTRA reports on a fire in Moscow where two to three people died, possibly due to gas cylinders, and that the husband of one of the deceased went to the front weeks ago. TASS reports on a Russian team arriving in Brazil for a chemistry Olympiad.
Military Technology and Adaptation: Басурин о главном reports on a new Russian electronic warfare system, "Solyaris NS," designed to detect and suppress drones, currently in final testing before mass production. Forbes (via Kotsnews) discusses the observed Russian use of gyroscooters with anti-tank mines as kamikaze ground drones, highlighting their stability, speed, low cost, and expendability. Ukrainian border guards' report on countering Russian motorcycle assaults near Kupiansk also demonstrates tactical adaptation and counter-measures.
Ukrainian Military Updates: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України marks the Day of Civil-Military Cooperation Specialists. 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України shared a video about their basic general military training for civilians. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) commemorates a fallen soldier. Сили оборони Півдня України provides detailed statistics on Russian losses and strike activity in their area of responsibility. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shared photos and a report on the work of mobile fire groups of the 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade targeting Russian kamikaze drones in Kharkiv Oblast, highlighting their role in protecting civilian areas. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 also shared a report on a border guard FPV drone operator on the Vovchansk direction, discussing training, combat flights, and the importance of teamwork and targeting enemy drone operators. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 is fundraising for equipment for a mobile dental clinic for military personnel, highlighting the need for dental care on the front lines.
Russian Military Historical and Internal Information: Басурин о главном commemorates the establishment of the first diving school in Russia in 1882. Басурин о главном also shares a photo message related to diving with analysis about its strategic implications. Басурин о главном and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 share a video featuring interviews with Russian servicewomen, highlighting their roles and contributions. Colonelcassad provided a technical update on his channel's operations and bots, including information on combating spam and fraud, and fundraising appeals for his team. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is running a history quiz for Victory Day. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 commented on Ukrainian social media use of historical footage, claiming a Ukrainian post misinterpreted a handover of a city from Wehrmacht to the Red Army as a joint parade. Военкор Котенок published an article discussing the conflict, referring to Ukraine as a "nazi regime," criticizing "parties of peace" in Russia, discussing Putin's comments on anger, and highlighting Crimea as a key obstacle to peace talks.
Psychological and Propaganda Efforts: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shared a video of reconnaissance troops operating near the front line, emphasizing boldness. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА also amplified the narrative about the deceased Finnish fighter. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shared videos portraying Russian military personnel negatively. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники promotes a bot for information on mobilization, conscripts, legal questions, and searching for missing persons. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» shared a video highlighting the work of their Civil-Military Cooperation unit in searching for and evacuating fallen and missing soldiers. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація🇺🇦 shared a video of local theater staff observing a moment of silence for fallen defenders and civilians, emphasizing remembrance as an act of resistance. They also shared a video discussing alleged Russian efforts to militarize and indoctrinate Ukrainian children in occupied territories, portraying it as an attempt to create a future army hostile to Ukraine. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) discusses the Romanian election result from a Finnish perspective, portraying Simion's win as a setback for globalists and a positive development due to his stance on Ukraine.
Ukrainian Preparedness and Training: 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України's basic military training for civilians highlights ongoing efforts to prepare the civilian population for potential military involvement.
Internal Russian Economic and Social Issues: Полиция Хабаровского края reports on fraud cases. TASS reports on Chubais' assets and detention of individuals involved in scam calls. TASS reports on internal security issues in Dagestan and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug. Новости Москвы reports on proposed regulations for horse use and a vaccination program. ASTRA's report on the Moscow fire and the deceased resident whose husband is at the front subtly links the conflict to domestic hardship. The request for a probe into migrant subsidies (from previous update) also points to potential social tensions.

Frontline Dynamics and Activity:

Konotop (Sumy Oblast): Attacked by over a dozen "Shahed" drones and two Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles. An infrastructure object was destroyed, but no casualties were reported. (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Два майора)
Kropyvnytskyi (Kirovohrad Oblast): Repeated explosion heard, potentially linked to westward drone movement. (РБК-Україна, Суспільне)
Mykolaiv Oblast: Subjected to FPV drone attacks on frontline settlements. (Сили оборони Півдня України)
Kharkiv Oblast: Targeted by kamikaze drones. Mobile fire groups are actively countering drones. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) Combat engagements reported on the Kharkiv and Kupiansk directions. (Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ) Seven attacks reported on the Kupiansk direction. Ukrainian border guards destroyed a Russian assault group using motorcycles near Kupiansk. (Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА)
Donetsk Oblast: Targeted by KABs and drone attacks. Suffered impacts from the large-scale overnight drone attack. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ) High intensity of ground combat, especially on the Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Lyman directions. Russian strikes reported in Kramatorsk. (ТАСС) Fighting reported in various locations including Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, and Toretsk directions. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Pokrovsk Direction: Highest number of combat engagements reported (115). Russian claims of advances near Stara Mykolaivka, Kalynove, Novopoltavka, Dachne, Malynivka, and Yelyzavetivka. Fighting reported near Hnativka, Myroliubivka, Promin, Novoserhiivka, Oleksiivka, Bohatyr, Dalchenske, Zvirove, Novooleksandrivka, Udachne, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Shevchenko, Kotliarivka, Troitske, Andriivka, Bohdanivka. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Два майора, «Зона СВО», WarGonzo, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) Russian forces reportedly advancing in the eastern part of Kotliarivka. (Два майора)
Novopavlivka Direction: High number of combat engagements (52). Ukrainian forces repelling assaults near Kostiantynopil, Rivnopil, Novopil, Novosilka, Pryvilne, Shevchenko, and Bohatyr. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ) Russian claims of reaching the outskirts of Kotliarivka and fighting for Bohatyr and Otradne. (Рыбарь, Два майора, «Зона СВО», WarGonzo, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition) Russian claims of significant success in destroying Ukrainian assets on the Southern Donetsk direction.
Lyman Direction: 22 attacks reported. Russian forces attempted to advance near Nove, Kopanky, Tverdokhlibove, Kolodiazi, and towards Zelena Dolyna, Lypove, Olhivka, Ridkodub. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Рыбарь, Два майора)
Kursk Direction: 23 attacks reported. Russian claims of Ukrainian drone attack injuring civilians. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Два майора, «Зона СВО»)
Siversk Direction: Three combat engagements reported near Hryhorivka and Verkhnokamyanske, all repelled. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Kramatorsk Direction: Ten combat engagements reported towards Maiske, Bila Hora, and near Stupochky and Chasiv Yar. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ) Russian strikes reported in Kramatorsk. (ТАСС) Fighting reported in Chasiv Yar. (WarGonzo)
Toretsk Direction: 16 attacks reported near Toretsk, Druzhba, and towards Dyliivka. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Huliaipole Direction: Five attacks reported near Vysokoe. Mass attacks with NARs reported on Huliaipole, Novodarivka, and Malynivka. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Сили оборони Півдня України)
Orikhiv Direction: Three unsuccessful attacks reported near Novoandriivka, Piatykhatky, and Stepove. Russian strikes reported in Orikhiv with KABs. Positional battles reported. (Генеральний штаб ЗSU, Сили оборони Півдня України, Два майора, «Зона СВО», Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Prydniprovskyi Direction: No offensive actions reported. Aerial strikes with KABs reported on Beryslav and Burhunka. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Сили оборони Півдня України)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (General): Subjected to extensive Russian strikes with KABs, drones, MLRS, and artillery on numerous settlements. Two men injured in Orikhiv. Damage to civilian properties. (Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація🇺🇦) Fundraising for Russian assault troops on the Zaporizhzhia direction. (ТАСС)
Belgorod Oblast (Russia): Under fire, including drone attacks. Casualties reported. (Два майора, «Зона СВО»)
Bryansk Oblast (Russia): Russian air defense claims to have destroyed 17 Ukrainian drones. (Минобороны РФ, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, AV БогомаZ, Два майора, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Kaluga Oblast (Russia): Russian air defense claims to have destroyed 5 Ukrainian drones. (Минобороны РФ, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Два майора, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Moscow Oblast (Russia): Russian air defense claims to have destroyed 4 Ukrainian drones over the Moscow region. Temporary restrictions at Domodedovo Airport were implemented and lifted. Fire reported in Moscow with casualties, possibly due to gas cylinders. (Минобороны РФ, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, Новости Москвы, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Север.Реалии, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Nadym (Russia): Temporary restrictions at the airport, possibly due to drone threat. (ASTRA, ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug (Russia): Individual detained for preparing a railway attack for Ukraine. (ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Dagestan (Russia): FSB reports preventing a terrorist attack. (ТАСС)
Nikopol District (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Attacked with MLRS, heavy artillery, and drones. Damage reported, no casualties. Two drones shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Олександр Вілкул) Subjected to FPV drone attacks on frontline settlements. (Сили оборони Півдня України)
Kherson Oblast: Subjected to FPV drone attacks on frontline settlements. Aerial strikes with KABs reported on Beryslav and Burhunka. Russian shelling on frontline territories and settlements. Civilian injured in Zabarino. (Сили оборони Півдня України, Два майора, «Зона СВО»)
Donetsk (DPR, Russia): Civilian severely injured by a "Lepestok" mine. (Два майора, «Зона СВО») Russian UFSB claims to have thwarted 266 aerial attacks over major cities in DPR over the week. (ТАСС)
Belovody (Sumy Oblast): Reports of Russian advances and fighting. (Рыбарь, Два майора, WarGonzo, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Loknya (Sumy Oblast): Reports of Russian advances and fighting. (Рыбарь, Два майора, WarGonzo)
Vodyane Druhe (Donetsk Oblast): Fighting reported. (Два майора, «Зона СВО»)
Novoolenivka (Donetsk Oblast): Fighting reported. (Два майора, «Зона СВО»)
Nova Poltavka (Donetsk Oblast): Fighting reported. (Два майора, «Зона СВО»)
Romanivka (Donetsk Oblast): Fighting reported. (Два майора, «Зона СВО»)
Tarasyvka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian forces reportedly advanced from this liberated settlement towards Oleksandropil. (Два майора, «Зона СВО»)
Oleksandropil (Donetsk Oblast): Russian forces reportedly advancing towards this settlement. (Два майора, «Зона СВО»)
Balka Shyroka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian forces reportedly assaulting tree lines in this area. (Два майора)
Otradne (Donetsk Oblast): Russian forces reportedly completing preparations for liberation and fighting in the area. (Два майора, «Зона СВО», WarGonzo)
Oleksiivka (Donetsk Oblast): Fighting reported towards this settlement. (WarGonzo)
Novodanylivka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Positional battles reported. (Два майора, «Зона СВО»)
Mala Tokmachka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Positional battles and Russian claims of clearing the brick factory area. (Два майора, «Зона СВО», Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Shcherbaky (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Positional battles reported. (Два майора, «Зона СВО», Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Stepove (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Positional battles reported. (Два майора, «Зона СВО», Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Kamianske (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Positional battles reported. (Два майора, «Зона СВО», Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Mali Shcherbaky (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Airborne forces reportedly advanced west of this settlement. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Chasiv Yar (Donetsk Oblast): Fighting reported. Russian claims of shooting down a drone and liquidating a pickup truck. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, WarGonzo)
Stara Mykolaivka (Donetsk Oblast): Fighting reported on the southern outskirts. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Kalynove (Donetsk Oblast): Russian forces reportedly advanced along a tree line between Stara Mykolaivka and this settlement. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Dachne (Donetsk Oblast): Fighting reported in the direction of this settlement. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Lypove (Donetsk Oblast): Fighting reported. (Рыбарь, Два майора)
Ridkodub (Donetsk Oblast): Fighting reported in the direction of this settlement. (Рыбарь, Два майора)
Vysokoe (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Five attacks reported. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Сили оборони Півдня України)
Piatykhatky (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Three unsuccessful attacks reported near this settlement. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Beryslav (Kherson Oblast): Attacked with KABs. (Сили оборони Півдня України)
Burhunka (Kherson Oblast): Attacked with KABs. (Сили оборони Півдня України)
Sudzha (Kursk Oblast, Russia): Russian forces continuing to "clear" the border area and have taken Ukrainian prisoners in Hornal. (Russian claims, previous updates)
Chornyi Rih (Chernihiv Oblast): Ukrainian forces reportedly accumulating reserves. (НгП раZVедка)

Aerial and Naval Activity:

Drone Activity: Large-scale Russian overnight attack involving 116 strike UAVs and 21 decoys. 42 strike drones downed, 21 decoys lost without effect. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) Numerous reports of drone activity and impacts across various oblasts. Russian air defense claims 26 Ukrainian drones destroyed over Russia (Bryansk, Kaluga, Moscow Oblasts). (Минобороны РФ, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, AV БогомаZ, Два майора, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Север.Реалии, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ) Reports of Ukrainian FPV drone attacks on frontline settlements in Mykolaiv, Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. (Сили оборони Півдня України) Ukrainian border guards used a drone to destroy a Russian assault group near Kupiansk. (Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА) Russian forces using FPV drones on the Southern Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia directions. (Colonelcassad, Воин DV, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition) Russian development of a new EW system for drones reported. (Басурин о главном) Russian tactical adaptation using gyroscooters with mines as kamikaze ground drones reported. (Forbes via Kotsnews) Ukrainian military using mobile fire groups to counter Russian kamikaze drones in Kharkiv Oblast. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦) Ukrainian border guard operating FPV drones on the Vovchansk direction. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦)
Ballistic Missile Activity: Two Iskander-M/KN-23 missiles launched from Kursk Oblast towards Sumy Oblast. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ) Used in a combined attack on Konotop. (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Два майора)
Tactical Aviation Activity: Activity reported in northeastern and southeastern directions, posing a threat. KAB launches reported towards Sumy Oblast. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна) Russian aviation reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Kotlyarivka and in Bohatyr. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Воин DV, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition) Russian aerial strikes (106) and KAB drops (167) over Ukraine reported. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ) Russian aerial strikes (10) and KAB drops (13) over Kursk Oblast reported. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ) Aerial strikes with KABs reported on Huliaipole, Orikhiv, Malynivka, Novodanylivka, Vysokoe, Beryslav, and Burhunka. Mass attacks with NARs reported on Huliaipole, Novodarivka, Vesele, Zelene Pole, Chervone, and Novopil. (Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація🇺🇦, Сили оборони Півдня України)
Naval Activity: One Russian ship with up to 6 Kalibrs in the Black Sea. Three Russian ships with one carrying up to 8 Kalibrs in the Mediterranean Sea. No Russian ships in the Sea of Azov. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, РБК-Україна) Russia reportedly transferred S-300/400 systems from Belarus to cover the parade, potentially stretching their forces needed for Black Sea and other area coverage. (КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno)

Diplomatic and Political Developments:

Statements from Donald Trump: Mentioned having "very good discussions" on Ukraine and Russia. Ordered 100% tariffs on foreign films. Directed reopening of Alcatraz. (РБК-Україна, ТАСС, ASTRA, STERNENKO)
Romanian Presidential Elections: Ultra-right candidate George Simion won the first round with a significant lead and proceeds to the second round against the mayor of Bucharest. (РБК-Україна, ASTRA, STERNENKO, Alex Parker Returns, WarGonzo, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia))
Statements from Slovakian Vice-Speaker: Reiterated concerns about the risk of a third world war. (ТАСС, previous update)
Transnistria: President Krasnoselsky accused Moldova of blocking negotiations. (ТАСС)
Germany: Boris Pistorius reportedly remains Defense Minister in the new government. (ТАСС) Discussion of banning the "Alternative for Germany" party. (ТАСС)
Mongolia: President Khurelsukh to attend Victory Day celebration in Moscow. (ТАСС)
Japan: Russian ambassador states Japan is not ready to restore relations and is actively pursuing an anti-Russian course. (ТАСС)
Palestine: Abbas to discuss Gaza situation and bilateral relations with Putin on May 10. PNA expects continued Russian support. (ТАСС)
Alleged Death of Finnish Fighter: Russian sources continue to promote the narrative of the alleged death of Leo Aland, son of a Finnish politician, portraying him as a disillusioned mercenary, likely for propaganda purposes. (Colonelcassad, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Information Warfare and Narratives: Russian sources promoting narratives about the 2014 Odesa tragedy and dismissing Ukrainian claims of Russian provocations for May 9th. Discussions about US involvement and potential peace talks continue. Russian military bloggers discuss various aspects of the conflict and promote specific narratives. (Военкор Котенок, «Зона СВО», Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) Promotion of the "Immortal Regiment" action. (TASS, previous update) Ukrainian sources highlighting the work of their military units and commemorating fallen soldiers. Discussion of alleged Russian indoctrination of Ukrainian children in occupied territories.
Ukraine-US Mineral Agreement: NBC News (via Kotsnews) reports on a recent agreement giving the US access to some of Ukraine's critical minerals.
Ukrainian Diplomatic Perspectives: Ukrainian Ambassador to Brazil discusses Russian influence in Brazil, the new German government, approaching Trump, and future work at the UN. (РБК-Україна)
EU Support for Ukraine: EU Commissioner Kubilius suggests doubling military support to Ukraine by investing in Ukrainian production if Trump doesn't persuade Putin to make peace. (РБК-Україна)

Internal Russian Issues:

Migration Affairs: Administrative information and a request for a probe into migrant subsidies. (Полиция Хабаровского края, ТАСС, previous update)
Internal Security: Claimed Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow and temporary airport restrictions. FSB reports preventing a terrorist attack in Dagestan and detaining an individual preparing a railway attack for Ukraine. Detention of individuals involved in scam calls. (ASTRA, ТАСС, Новости Москвы, РБК-Україна, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Север.Реалии, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Economic Issues: Reports of residents defrauded by phone scammers. Chubais not interested in preserving arrested assets. (Полиция Хабаровского края, ТАСС)
Military Procurement and Logistics: Reports of substandard equipment and fundraising efforts continue. Report on significant depletion of artillery from a storage base in Omsk. (ТАСС, previous update, CyberBoroshno, previous update)
Social Issues: Reports of difficulties in obtaining disability certificates. Fire in Moscow with casualties and a link to a resident at the front. (ТАСС, previous update, ASTRA)
Information Environment: Experts predicting increased deepfake attacks. (Новости Москвы)
Historical Narratives and Patriotism: Commemoration of the diving school establishment. Promotion of "Immortal Regiment." Videos highlighting servicewomen. Discussion of historical events related to Victory Day. (Басурин о главном, TASS, Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Administrative: Information on working days in May. (TASS) Proposed ban on commercial horse use in Moscow. (Новости Москвы)

Potential Future Developments

Sustained and Evolving Russian Aerial Campaign: The large-scale drone attack with decoys and the combined missile and drone attack on Konotop indicate Russia's continued commitment to and adaptation of its aerial strike campaign. Expect more complex and multi-layered attacks targeting various regions and infrastructure types. The reported westward movement of drones in central Ukraine and renewed tactical aviation activity in frontline areas suggest shifting focus and tactics. The reported explosion in Kropyvnytskyi aligns with this trend and could indicate further strikes in central Ukraine.
Intensified Ground Combat on Key Axes: The extremely high number of combat engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff, particularly on the Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Lyman directions, suggests that Russia is maintaining or increasing offensive pressure in these areas. Russian claims of localized advances in these areas and in Sumy Oblast, if verified, indicate a grinding offensive aimed at incremental territorial gains. The fighting in Kotliarivka and Bohatyr appears particularly intense.
Continued Ukrainian Defensive Efforts and Counter-Measures: Ukraine's successful downing of a significant number of drones and repelling of numerous assaults demonstrates continued effective defense. Observed tactical adaptations by both sides, such as Russia's use of motorcycles and gyroscooters and Ukraine's mobile fire groups and FPV drone operations, highlight the dynamic nature of the battlefield and the ongoing need for innovation and adaptation. Ukrainian efforts to accumulate reserves near the border suggest potential preparations for defensive or offensive actions.
Impact of Political Developments on International Support: The results of the Romanian presidential election, with the strong showing of an anti-Ukrainian candidate, could impact the flow of aid and regional dynamics. Statements from figures like Donald Trump continue to introduce uncertainty into the future of international support and potential peace negotiations.
Continued Ukrainian Strikes and Sabotage within Russia: The claimed Ukrainian drone attacks over various Russian oblasts, including the temporary airport restrictions, and the reported detention of individuals preparing attacks, indicate continued Ukrainian efforts to strike targets within Russia and potentially disrupt logistics and infrastructure.
Russian Information Operations and Psychological Warfare: Russia will likely continue to leverage historical narratives, promote specific interpretations of events, and attempt to discourage foreign fighters and demoralize the Ukrainian population through information operations. The increased focus on internal issues and security concerns in Russian reporting could also be part of an effort to shape domestic narratives and maintain support for the conflict.
Challenges in Russian Military Logistics and Procurement: Reports of substandard equipment, fundraising needs, and the depletion of artillery from storage bases suggest ongoing strains on the Russian military supply chain, which could impact their ability to sustain offensive operations in the long term. The development of new EW systems indicates an effort to address some of these challenges.
Focus on Civilian Impact and Humanitarian Issues: The continued reports of civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure highlight the ongoing humanitarian crisis. Ukraine's efforts to provide medical care and support for affected populations, including the use of mobile clinics and addressing the needs of fallen and missing soldiers' families, will remain crucial. The alleged Russian indoctrination of children in occupied territories points to long-term concerns about the humanitarian and social impact of the occupation.

Operational Summary

The immediate operational picture is defined by a large-scale overnight Russian aerial attack involving 116 strike drones and 21 decoys, resulting in 42 downed strike drones and 21 lost decoys. Sumy Oblast also experienced a combined attack with two Iskander-M missiles. Infrastructure was damaged in Konotop, and repeated explosions were heard in Kropyvnytskyi. Russia claims to have downed 26 Ukrainian drones over its territory. Ground combat remains highly intense, particularly on the Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Lyman directions, with both sides reporting heavy fighting and localized gains. Ukraine reports high Russian losses. Tactical adaptations like Russian use of motorcycles and gyroscooters, and Ukrainian counter-measures, are evident. Russian tactical aviation continues to pose a threat on frontline oblasts. Diplomatic developments include the outcome of the Romanian election and ongoing commentary from Donald Trump, while Russian information operations continue to promote specific narratives and address internal issues. The situation indicates a sustained and evolving Russian military campaign involving combined arms tactics, coupled with ongoing internal security concerns in Russia, significant information warfare efforts, and the continued devastating impact on Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure.

Potential Indicators

Changes in the scale, composition (including decoy drones and different weapon types), and targeting patterns of Russian aerial attacks.
Verification of claimed territorial changes and the outcome of ongoing battles in key areas like Kotliarivka, Bohatyr, Bilovody, and Loknya.
Reports of significant shifts in the intensity or location of ground combat along the front lines.
Further evidence or details regarding claimed Ukrainian strikes within Russia and their impact on infrastructure and logistics.
Developments in the second round of the Romanian presidential elections and statements from political leaders impacting aid to Ukraine or regional security.
Observable impacts of reported Russian logistical and procurement challenges on their operational capabilities.
Changes in the nature and scale of information operations from either side, including the use of specific narratives or propaganda themes.
Reports or visual evidence of new tactical adaptations by either side on the battlefield.
Updates on the humanitarian situation, including civilian casualties, infrastructure damage, and efforts to provide medical care and support to affected populations.
Any further reports or evidence related to alleged Russian indoctrination of Ukrainian children in occupied territories.
Statements or actions from international actors influencing the conflict or potential peace negotiations.

Situation Report