Sitrep 2025-05-04 10:19:19

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 4, 2025, 10:18 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational landscape continues to be characterized by intense ground combat on multiple axes, sustained Russian aerial attacks across Ukraine, and persistent Ukrainian deep strikes into Russian territory and occupied Crimea. Diplomatic and information operations surrounding key dates and events remain active. New information highlights continued Russian offensive pressure on various fronts, ongoing Russian and Ukrainian efforts in drone warfare and counter-drone measures, and confirmed diplomatic activities.

Key updates and analysis:

Continued Intense Ground Combat with Claimed Russian Advances and New Frontline Zones: Russian sources continue to report significant ground combat and claim tactical successes on multiple fronts. WarGonzo's morning summary for May 4th highlights heavy fighting in Bohodyr on the Donetsk front with claimed tactical successes, and Russian forces attempting to reach the neighboring village of Oleksiivka and advancing east of Bohodyr. On the Pokrovsk direction, WarGonzo reports ongoing Russian offensive actions in several areas, fierce battles in Kotlyarivka, and counter-battles in Kotlino and Udachne. They state that earlier reports of an assault on Pokrovsk itself were premature, and Russian forces are conducting reconnaissance and sabotage in the direction. On the Sumy direction, WarGonzo claims Russian forces are developing success in the area of Bilovody and continuing battles for Loknya and Vodolahi. On the Chasiv Yar direction, WarGonzo reports continued battles in Chasiv Yar and on the flanks, with Russian forces continuing to pressure Ukrainian defenses in the city and active use of long-range weapons by both sides. These reports from a prominent Russian military blogger underscore the intensity of the fighting and claimed localized Russian gains on several fronts. Сливочный каприз reports that after the completion of the "counter-terrorist operation" in Kursk Oblast, Russian forces have begun forming a "security zone" in Sumy Oblast, occupying a number of positions in border territories deep within Ukraine. They claim that as of early May, the settlements of Zhuravka, Novenkoye, and Basovka are under Russian control, and fighting is ongoing in Bilovody and Loknya. They claim the area of the visually confirmed Russian bridgehead along the Snagost and Loknya rivers is 80.6 km² of Sumy Oblast territory. This report, accompanied by a map, suggests a new phase of Russian ground operations in the Sumy border region with claimed territorial gains and the establishment of a new frontline zone. Colonelcassad reports claimed Russian assault groups of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division cleared the territory of the Matrona Moskovskaya mine on the Konstantinovka direction. Dnevnik Desantnika reports Russian forces advanced north of Berezovka after liberating it, clearing forest belts, and are fighting for the northern part of Tarasovka, also surrounding the enemy in Elizavetovka from the south and north on the Konstantinovka direction. These reports from multiple Russian sources highlight continued Russian offensive efforts and claimed tactical and operational gains on several axes, including the potential establishment of a new "security zone" within Ukrainian territory in the Sumy border region.
High Volume of Enemy Attacks Reported by Ukrainian General Staff: The Ukrainian General Staff, as reported by Liveuamap, provides a detailed breakdown of enemy attacks on various axes yesterday: Six combat engagements on the Kharkiv axis near Vovchansk, six enemy attacks on the Kupyansk axis near Kolisnykivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka, and Zahryzove (repelled). 27 enemy attacks on the Lyman axis near Nove, Zelena Dolyna, Kolodyazi, Myrne, Serhiyivka, Hrekivka, and Kopanky. One assault on the Siversk axis near Bilohorivka (repelled). Eight enemy assault attempts on the Kramatorsk axis near Chasiv Yar and towards Novomarkove and Bila Hora. Eight attacks on the Toretsk axis near Toretsk, Krymske, Druzhba and Sukha Balka. Five assaults on the Orikhiv axis near Scherbaky, Mala Tokmachka and Stepove. Six attacks on the Huliaipole axis near Vysoke (repelled). 83 combat engagements on the Pokrovsk direction, as previously reported. These statistics from the Ukrainian General Staff illustrate the sheer scale of the Russian offensive efforts across the front lines and highlight the specific areas of intense pressure, aligning with Russian reports of intense fighting.
Large-Scale Ukrainian Drone and Missile Attack on Russian Territory and Crimea: Russian sources confirm a significant Ukrainian attack overnight. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА reports that a total of 170 drones were shot down over Russian territories, with the majority over Crimea and Krasnodar Krai. They also state that 18 drones were shot down over Rostov, Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk Oblasts. Additionally, they report the use of eight Storm Shadow cruise missiles and Neptun missiles in the Black Sea during the attack. This information from a Russian military blogger provides a Russian perspective on the scale and nature of the Ukrainian deep strike operation.
Claimed Downing of Russian Su-30s by Ukrainian Drone Boats with AIM-9 Missiles: Оперативний ЗСУ reports, citing Budanov, that two Russian Su-30 aircraft were shot down over the Black Sea by AIM-9 missiles launched from drone boats. They state this is the first instance of drone boats downing fighter jets and the first successful use of AIM-9 missiles for this purpose via drone boat. They note that it was initially believed the aircraft were shot down by R-73 missiles. They claim the crew of the first Su-30 survived, while the crew of the second is presumed dead. This, if confirmed, represents a significant tactical development in naval drone warfare and a potential new threat to Russian air assets over the Black Sea.
Russian Propaganda and Diplomatic Messaging: Alex Parker Returns shares a statement attributed to "Pypa" (likely a derogatory reference to Putin) claiming that reconciliation with the Ukrainian part of the Russian people is inevitable and a matter of time, asking if "Mykola" (a common Ukrainian name) is offended. This is a clear information operation piece aimed at portraying a narrative of historical unity and dismissing Ukrainian identity. Alex Parker Returns also shares a statement from Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico confirming he will visit Moscow for Victory Day and calling Zelenskyy's threats unacceptable. ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova's statement that the UK inviting Ukrainian Armed Forces to the May 8th parade in London was self-defeating and a disgrace, using derogatory language. These statements highlight ongoing diplomatic tensions and the use of strong rhetoric by Russian officials and pro-Russian sources. «Зона СВО» shares a video with a nationalistic message about the strength of Russia being within its people, traditions, culture, economy, territory, resources, and defense capability, but emphasizing unity as the most important factor. This is a direct propaganda piece aimed at boosting domestic morale and emphasizing national unity. Дневник Десантника reiterates President Putin's statements about inevitable peace with Ukraine being a matter of time and Russia maintaining "cold-bloodedness" despite provocations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video featuring a Ukrainian actor criticizing those who avoid mobilization, contrasted with the actor's son reportedly "defending his postgraduate studies," likely a Russian information operation to highlight perceived hypocrisy and discourage Ukrainians from evading service. ТАСС reports that China and Russia will strengthen cooperation within the UN, SCO, and BRICS, and will promote a "correct view of the history of the Second World War." This indicates continued diplomatic alignment and coordination between the two countries, particularly concerning historical narratives. ТАСС also reports that Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Russia will deepen mutual political trust and enrich strategic cooperation.
Confirmed Attack and Fire at "Strela" Factory in Bryansk Oblast: ASTRA reports that the "Strela" transformer factory in Suzemka, Bryansk Oblast, is on fire due to shelling, citing local residents. The governor confirmed an attack on an industrial enterprise, stating production and administrative buildings were destroyed and there were no casualties. ASTRA notes the factory specializes in transformers and has partners in the defense, aerospace, and electronics industries, and was previously attacked in November 2024 and December 2023. This confirms a successful Ukrainian strike on a Russian defense-related industrial facility.
Sniper Activity in Donetsk Oblast: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video claiming the elimination of a Russian soldier near Verkhnokamyanske in Donetsk Oblast by a sniper. This indicates ongoing small-unit engagements and the use of snipers on this front.
"Immortal Regiment" Action in Washington D.C. and Counter-Protest: STERNENKO reports that Russians held an "Immortal Regiment" march in Washington D.C. for the first time since the full-scale invasion, and Ukrainian community representatives organized a counter-protest calling on Americans not to be silent about Russian war crimes, shouting "Stop Russian propaganda in the USA!" and activating air raid sirens. This highlights the continuation of Russian information operations abroad and active efforts by Ukrainian communities to counter them.
Russian Claims of Regaining Control in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts: Старше Эдды and Два майора (citing Rybar and Warrior of North) provide a detailed account of claimed decisive battles in Krasnoyaruzhsky district of Belgorod Oblast. They claim that in mid-March, Ukrainian forces attempted a breakthrough and managed to hold a small area and control Popovka and part of Demidovka. They detail the fighting for Demidovka, claiming units of the 83rd Motorized Rifle Regiment stopped the advance on March 18th, preventing a breakthrough into Kursk Oblast, and that with reinforcement, the village was liberated by April 13th. For Popovka, they claim FSB border guards initially engaged, then withdrew with support, and that Russian forces systematically struck Ukrainian reinforcements, preventing their development. They state the operation to liberate Popovka began from two sides, with the 128th Brigade blocking from the north and the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade from the south, and that Russian forces managed to dislodge Ukrainian formations after fierce battles. They claim scattered Ukrainian formations are still being cleared in surrounding forest belts. ТАСС shares a video from the Russian Ministry of Defense showing Western weaponry claimed to be captured from Ukrainian forces during the "storming of Gornal, Kursk Oblast," with an officer of the Black Sea Fleet (call sign Boatsman) commenting. This new information from multiple Russian sources details claimed Russian successes in regaining control of border settlements in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts and showcases captured equipment as evidence of these operations.
Russian Military Bloggers Discuss Drone Tactics in Kursk Oblast: Филолог в засаде confirms thoughts on a key factor in Russian success in Kursk Oblast. Филолог в засаде provides a detailed account of a "new type of troops" tested in the "Kursk Oblast liberation." They state that skilled drone operators, repairmen, and suppliers were gathered from across the Grouping and unified into a single unit under direct command. This unit was given unlimited access to requested drone models and supplied with fresh intelligence, tasked with isolating the battlefield. They claim that major and secondary roads from Sumy Oblast into the Ukrainian grouping in Kursk Oblast were gradually turned into a "highway of death," reducing enemy logistics by at least 60% over three months. They state this isolation was key to the subsequent operation and "liberation of Kursk Oblast." Филолог в засаде clarifies that while there were no significant qualitative changes in the organization of ground forces, the systematic isolation of the battlefield with concentrated drone resources ultimately exhausted the enemy grouping, despite serious losses. This analysis from a Russian military blogger provides insight into claimed Russian tactical innovations and their perceived effectiveness in the Kursk operation, highlighting the increasing importance of drone warfare in isolating battlefields and disrupting logistics.
Ballistic Missile Threat Alert: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a ballistic missile threat from the south. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an air raid alert across the entire Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to this threat. This indicates an active and immediate threat of Russian ballistic missile use targeting southern Ukraine, specifically Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (Operational Status: Resolved)
Ukrainian Forces Training: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares photos and text detailing ongoing training of infantry from the 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade. They state that the command prioritizes continuous training to make every soldier maximally combat-ready, modeling various combat situations and teaching effective responses. Training includes assaulting and clearing enemy trenches, organizing defense, and actions during group movements. They emphasize that the training conditions are made as close to combat as possible to create a psychological immersion effect for both new and experienced infantrymen. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 also shares a profile of Oleksandr, a platoon commander in the 228th battalion of the 127th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade, highlighting his background as a teacher and how his skills in analytical thinking, communication, and information processing are valuable in his current role. He emphasizes the importance of mutual understanding and support within the unit and the conscious choice to defend Ukraine. These posts highlight ongoing efforts to maintain and improve Ukrainian combat effectiveness and the dedication of personnel.
Claimed Destruction of Armored Tractor: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video claiming the detection and destruction of a " новий винахід "второї армії світу" - броньований z-трактор" (new invention of the "second army of the world" - armored z-tractor) by soldiers of the "Rarog" regiment. They suggest this vehicle was likely planned for logistical purposes. This report, with accompanying video, highlights Ukrainian efforts to identify and neutralize unconventional Russian armored vehicles and provides insight into Russian attempts to adapt civilian vehicles for military use, likely for logistics or transport in contested areas.
DeepState Updates Map with Claimed Russian Occupations and Advances: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports that the map has been updated. They claim the enemy has occupied Zelene Pole and advanced near Nove and Novomykhailivka. This report from a prominent Ukrainian OSINT source indicates claimed Russian territorial gains and advances in specific areas, which aligns with Russian claims of ongoing offensive actions on multiple fronts, particularly in Donetsk Oblast.
Cuban President to Attend Victory Day Parade in Moscow: Colonelcassad reports, citing Zvezda News, that the President of Cuba, Miguel Díaz-Canel, announced he is flying to Moscow for May 9th and called it an honor to be in Red Square for the 80th anniversary of Victory. He also stated Cuban representatives will be present at the parade. This confirms the attendance of a key international figure at the symbolic May 9th parade in Moscow, highlighting continued diplomatic support for Russia from certain countries.
Russian Military Blogger Claims High Ukrainian Casualties and Equipment Destruction: The Russian Ministry of Defense has released a detailed summary of claimed Ukrainian losses and equipment destruction across all Russian groupings ("Sever," "Zapad," "Yug," "Tsentr," "Vostok," "Dnepr") yesterday. They claim over 1205 Ukrainian military personnel were lost, along with significant numbers of armored fighting vehicles (including a US-made HMMWV and a German-made Panzerhaubitze 2000), motor vehicles, artillery pieces (including Western-made systems), MLRS combat vehicles, electronic warfare stations (including Israeli-made RADA radars), and ammunition/supply depots. They also claim Russian air defense shot down 6 US-made JDAM guided bombs and 137 Ukrainian UAVs yesterday. Operational-Tactical Aviation, attack drones, Missile Troops and Artillery reportedly struck infrastructure of military airfields, drone manufacturing shops, assembly areas of uncrewed surface vessels, ammunition depots, and temporary deployment areas of Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries in 162 areas. These are Russian claims and should be assessed with caution, but they indicate the intensity of combat and the types of targets being engaged, and the specific types of equipment claimed to be destroyed are noteworthy.
Russian Military Bloggers Detail Claimed Russian Advances on Kupiansk and Toretsk Directions: Russian military bloggers are providing detailed reports on claimed Russian advances on the Kupiansk and Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk) directions. On the Kupiansk axis, they claim continued "rolling" attacks near Topolya, using artillery and drones to target Ukrainian positions towards Kolodeznoye and Dvurechansky after liberating Kamenka. They also claim Russian aviation destroyed a large Ukrainian personnel and temporary deployment point (PVD) in the northern part of Kupyansk, including foreign mercenaries and drone production facilities. On the southern flank near Zagryzovo, they claim control up to the center of the village. On the Toretsk direction, they claim Russian fighters north of the Toretskaya mine expanded their control by 800m and are targeting a Ukrainian shelter at the Berezka camp. They also claim "certain successes" in the Shcherbinivka area, advancing 1 km and attempting to cut off a Ukrainian grouping. These reports indicate continued Russian offensive pressure and claimed tactical gains on these axes. Colonelcassad reports claimed Russian assault groups of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division cleared the territory of the Matrona Moskovskaya mine on the Konstantinovka direction. Dnevnik Desantnika reports Russian forces advanced north of Berezovka after liberating it, clearing forest belts, and are fighting for the northern part of Tarasovka, also surrounding the enemy in Elizavetovka from the south and north on the Konstantinovka direction. These reports from multiple Russian military bloggers highlight ongoing and claimed successful Russian ground operations on these specific axes.
Propaganda Focus on Kursk Operation and Ukraine's Financial Situation: A Russian military blogger channel ("WarGonzo") is promoting the "Kursk Operation" as a significant event where the Russian "Kaskad" drone brigade allegedly caused $1 billion in losses to Ukraine, framing it as a successful example of combined arms and drone warfare, likely for propaganda purposes and to highlight claimed Russian effectiveness. Another Russian military blogger channel ("Операция Z") is disseminating a statement from a Ukrainian deputy claiming that half of the Ukrainian army is in self-willed departure from units, attributing this to mismanagement by the Ukrainian military leadership and criticizing the role of the military ombudsman, likely an attempt to demoralize and sow distrust in the Ukrainian military.
Ukrainian Strategic Information Regarding Potential Russian Hit List: Ukrainian Member of Parliament Honcharenko claims that Russia has a list of individuals they are "hunting" and that the situation is serious, urging caution. He credits the SBU with a rapid response, implying the recent attack on Sternenko could be linked. This highlights Ukrainian concerns about targeted individuals and ongoing efforts to counter potential Russian threats.
Russian Claims Regarding Ukrainian Targets in Sumy and Odesa: Colonelcassad shares information suggesting that Russian "Geran" drones targeted a pig farm in Stetsovka, Sumy Oblast, where Ukrainian temporary deployment points were allegedly located, and the former Polygraphmash plant in Odesa, claiming it houses SPAITECH, a firm producing UAVs for Ukraine. This indicates specific Russian targeting of alleged military facilities and potentially civilian infrastructure used for military purposes.
Russian State Media Narrative on Peace Demonstrations in Germany: Russian state media ("Rybar") is framing recent peace demonstrations in 22 German cities as having been sabotaged by "provocateurs" from the "Antifa" movement and "neo-Nazis," and that German media spread "disinformation" about the events. They claim this was orchestrated by "arms lobbyists" and "warmongers" interested in continuing the conflict and stressing the population, asserting that European democracy is nearing a "slave-owning system." This is a clear information operation aimed at portraying Germany as manipulated by pro-war elements and undermining the legitimacy of German democracy and media.
Contradictory Reports on US-Ukraine Mineral Agreement: Ukrainian MP Zheleznyak states that the US-Ukraine agreement on mineral resources will have precedence over Ukrainian laws and that Ukraine cannot use its legislation to avoid obligations. Conversely, a Russian military blogger channel ("Kotsnews") frames this as Ukraine selling its land to Americans in "eternal use," using derogatory language and celebrating it as a "peremoga" (victory), likely for propaganda purposes to portray Ukraine as losing sovereignty. This highlights conflicting narratives surrounding the agreement and its implications.
Russian Claims and Ukrainian Responses Regarding Oleshky Market Attack: Russian-installed authorities in Kherson Oblast and Russian military bloggers claim a Ukrainian drone attack on a market in Oleshky killed 7 civilians and injured over 20, with a second wave allegedly targeting the wounded and ambulance vehicles. ASTRA reports the confirmed deaths and injuries, with a Z-channel claiming the drone hit an evacuation group and killed Russian servicemen. TASS reports a three-day mourning period in Oleshky district. Ukrainian sources, including "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦," dismiss these claims as a planned Russian provocation, arguing that Ukraine targets military objectives, not civilians, and that such incidents are typical of Russian tactics. "Военкор Котенок" shares a video claiming it shows the first strike on the market. These conflicting narratives highlight the intense information warfare surrounding this incident and the difficulty in obtaining independent verification.
Zelenskyy's Conditions for Ceasefire and Negotiations: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, in a meeting with Luxembourg officials, stated that Ukraine is ready for a full, unconditional ceasefire for a sufficient period as a first step to peace, and is ready for negotiations only when the killing stops. This reiterates Ukraine's position that a cessation of hostilities is a prerequisite for meaningful peace talks.
Ukrainian Military Needs and Fundraising: A Russian military blogger channel ("Dnevnik Desantnika🇷🇺") is sharing a fundraising appeal for two Mavic 3 drones for Russian paratroopers on the Zaporizhzhia direction, highlighting ongoing equipment needs on the Russian side.
Release of US Citizen in Belarus: TASS reports that American citizen Yuri Zenkovich has been released from custody in Belarus, confirmed by Lukashenko's press secretary. This is a diplomatic development with potential implications for US-Belarus relations.
Russian Conviction for "Treason" Based on Donations: ASTRA reports that a resident of Chita, Russia, was sentenced to 12 years in prison for "state treason" for allegedly donating money to the Ukrainian army for equipment between June 2023 and April 2024. The FSB reportedly tracked her transfers and messages. This highlights the severe legal repercussions in Russia for perceived support of Ukraine, even through financial means, and the extent of state surveillance.
Updates on Attacks in Kharkiv Oblast: Oleg Syniehubov, Head of the Kharkiv Oblast Administration, reports that within two hours, Russia struck the Kyivskyi and Osnovyanskyi districts of Kharkiv with two "Molniya" type UAVs, with no reported casualties or damage to infrastructure at this time. He also provided an update on the situation in Kharkiv Oblast, stating that civilian casualties continue, particularly on the Kupiansk direction, which saw 15 out of 20 KAB strikes yesterday. He claims Russia is "erasing" Kupiansk, having used at least 243 KABs in April, including three 1.5-ton bombs. He also reports critical infrastructure damage in the Izium district due to Russian strikes, leaving about 7,000 people without gas, and six "Geran-2" drone strikes on Pivdenne, Kharkiv district, damaging residential buildings and injuring 11 people, including six children. This details the continued impact of Russian aerial attacks on civilian areas and infrastructure in the oblast.
Ukrainian April Air Defense and Aviation Summary: The Ukrainian Air Force has released a summary of their activities and claimed enemy losses in April 2025. They report the destruction of 2332 aerial targets, including various types of cruise and ballistic missiles, guided aerial missiles, and a significant number of Shahed (1214), reconnaissance (689), and other types (364) of UAVs. Ukrainian aviation conducted over 610 sorties, with around 330 for fighter cover and over 200 for striking targets and supporting troops. They claim Ukrainian aviation destroyed 326 aerial targets and struck command posts, logistics facilities, and concentrations of enemy personnel and equipment. This provides a comprehensive overview of Ukrainian air defense and air force operations and claimed successes in April.
Russian Military Blogger Propaganda on Ukrainian Military Personnel: A Russian military blogger channel ("Alex Parker Returns") is sharing a video claiming that Ukrainian soldiers are issued six pairs of shoes upon signing a contract and that Russian soldiers have to take them from deceased Ukrainian soldiers, likely a propaganda effort to portray Ukraine as well-supplied and Russia as lacking resources, while also dehumanizing Ukrainian soldiers.
Meeting on POWs and Missing Personnel in Ternopil Oblast: Representatives of the Western Regional Center of the Coordination Headquarters on the Treatment of Prisoners of War, along with representatives from other Ukrainian agencies, held a meeting with families of captured and missing defenders in Pidvolochyska community, Ternopil Oblast. They discussed exchange processes, social assistance, the work of the ICRC, DNA expertise, and actions for when a relative goes missing. This highlights ongoing efforts to support families affected by the conflict and address issues related to POWs and missing personnel.
Internal Russian Security Incident in Moscow: A Russian military blogger channel ("МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники") reports the detention of a Major and two Captains of the Moscow police, along with around a dozen taxi drivers, for allegedly scamming military personnel arriving at Sheremetyevo airport out of 1.5 million rubles by overcharging them for transportation. Several criminal cases have been initiated, and the detainees have been remanded in custody. This indicates internal security issues and criminal activity targeting military personnel within Russia.
Damage to Nova Poshta Branch in Odesa: RBC-Ukraine reports that a "Shahed" drone directly hit and destroyed part of a Nova Poshta cargo branch in Odesa overnight. Fortunately, the drone did not detonate, and no employees were present, resulting in no casualties. This confirms damage to civilian logistical infrastructure as a result of Russian drone attacks.
Ukrainian Production of Long-Range Fiber Optic Cables for Drones: Operational ZSU reports that Ukraine has launched serial production of 30 km fiber optic cables for FPV drones, with 25 km and 30 km spools successfully tested and in production. Further testing is planned for codification and approval for use by the Armed Forces. This indicates an advancement in Ukrainian drone technology and a potential for enhanced operational range and resilience to electronic warfare for FPV drones.
Ukrainian Visual Media on Russian Propaganda and Military Failures: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares two video messages with the same caption "😂🇺🇦Це вже ніяка клініка не врятує! "Чєбурашек враг боітся"🤦‍♂", indicating a likely focus on mocking or highlighting perceived failures or absurdities in Russian propaganda or military actions, possibly related to the "Cheburashka" character.
German Chancellor's Speech on WWII Anniversary and War in Ukraine: РБК-Україна reports that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz delivered his last speech as Chancellor at a commemorative ceremony for the 8th anniversary of the end of the war in Europe and the liberation of concentration camps. He connected his speech to Russia's war against Ukraine, stating that Putin "has brought war to Europe again" and emphasizing that "we must not and will not accept this." This highlights continued strong condemnation of Russia's actions by Germany.
Video of Alleged Rocket Impact Near Ben Gurion Airport and Crater: Оперативний ЗСУ shares two video messages, one with the caption "Ще один ракурс моменту падіння/прильоту ракети в районі аеророрту Бен-Гуріон і вирва 🫡https://t.me/operativnoZSU", and the other without a caption but likely related to the same event. This provides visual evidence of a claimed rocket impact near Ben Gurion Airport in Israel and shows the resulting crater, aligning with previous reports of a Houthi ballistic missile strike.
Russian Ministry of Defense Briefing on Yesterday's Operations: Colonelcassad shares a video with the caption "Хроника ударов по территории Украины 3-4 мая 2025 года", providing a claimed timeline of Russian strikes on Ukrainian territory on May 3rd and 4th, including various types of weapons (UMPK, Iskander-M, Geran/Herbera, Bandrole, RSZO) and targeted locations across multiple oblasts and cities. This offers a detailed Russian perspective on the scale and nature of their recent strike operations.
Russian Military Bloggers on Attacks in Kherson Oblast: Два майора shares two video messages with the same caption "Херсонское направление Удары по целям в Бургунке и Бериславе от Отряда Смуглянки ✨За Новороссийск!", indicating Russian strikes on targets in Burgunka and Berislav in Kherson Oblast by a unit called "Smuglyanka Detachment." The added phrase "За Новороссийск!" suggests these strikes may be framed as retaliation for the recent Ukrainian attack on Novorossiysk.
Internal Russian Non-Military News: Новости Москвы reports that washing cars at a dacha can result in a fine of up to 5000 rubles due to environmental concerns. This is a non-military internal Russian news item.
Russian Military Bloggers on Air Battles in Southern Donetsk Direction and Psychological Operations: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares two video messages with the same caption "‼️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Воздушные бои на Южно-Донецком направлении ▪️Расчеты FPV-дронов группировки «Восток» выслеживают и уничтожают тяжелые коптеры ВСУ. ▪️Бойцы лишают врага средств разведки и дистанционного минирования. t.me/RVvoenkor", indicating ongoing air battles in the Southern Donetsk direction with Russian FPV drone crews targeting and destroying Ukrainian heavy-lift drones, claiming to deprive Ukraine of reconnaissance and remote mining capabilities. Воин DV shares two video messages with the same caption "🤝 Операторы БпЛА 29 гвардейской общевойсковой армии группировки "Восток" сбросили листовки на позиции противника в н.п. Богатырь. ❗️Военнослужащие ВСУ, кто был насильно похищен ТЦК и отправлен на ЛБС, это ваш последний шанс. @voin_dv", indicating Russian psychological operations involving dropping leaflets on Ukrainian positions in the settlement of Bohaytr, specifically targeting Ukrainian servicemen allegedly forcibly mobilized, urging them to surrender. These reports highlight continued Russian efforts in drone warfare and psychological operations.
Russian Military Blogger Shares Video of Dzerzhinsk: Colonelcassad shares two video messages with the caption "Видео центральной части Дзержинска", providing visual information about the central part of Dzerzhinsk. Given that Dzerzhinsk is on the Toretsk direction where intense ground combat is reported, this video may be intended to provide a view of the current situation or damage in the area.
Fatal Construction Incident in Gelendzhik: ТАСС reports that the bodies of three workers who were trapped under collapsed soil in Gelendzhik have been found, confirming their deaths. This is a non-military incident in Russia.
Russian Ministry of Defense Claims Air Defense Successes and Strikes: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims their air defense shot down 6 US-made JDAM guided bombs and 137 Ukrainian UAVs yesterday. Operational-Tactical Aviation, attack drones, Missile Troops and Artillery reportedly struck infrastructure of military airfields, drone manufacturing shops, assembly areas of uncrewed surface vessels, ammunition depots, and temporary deployment areas of Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries in 162 areas. These are specific claimed successes by the Russian Ministry of Defense regarding their air defense and offensive operations.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Front (including Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Novomykhailivka, Toretsk/Konstantinovka, Bohaytr, Southern Donetsk): WarGonzo reports heavy fighting in Bohodyr with claimed tactical successes, and Russian forces attempting to reach Oleksiivka and advancing east of Bohodyr. On the Pokrovsk direction, WarGonzo reports ongoing Russian offensive actions, fierce battles in Kotlyarivka, and counter-battles in Kotlino and Udachne. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 83 combat engagements on the Pokrovsk direction yesterday. On the Chasiv Yar direction, WarGonzo reports continued battles in Chasiv Yar and on the flanks with Russian pressure on Ukrainian defenses. The Ukrainian General Staff reports eight assault attempts on the Kramatorsk axis near Chasiv Yar and towards Novomarkove and Bila Hora yesterday. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports the enemy has advanced near Nove and Novomykhailivka. On the Toretsk direction, the Ukrainian General Staff reports eight attacks near Toretsk, Krymske, Druzhba and Sukha Balka yesterday. Russian military bloggers report Russian advances north of the Toretskaya mine, expanding control by 800m, and advances in Shcherbinivka, advancing 1 km and attempting to cut off a Ukrainian grouping. Colonelcassad reports claimed Russian assault groups of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division cleared the territory of the Matrona Moskovskaya mine on the Konstantinovka direction. Dnevnik Desantnika reports Russian forces advanced north of Berezovka after liberating it, clearing forest belts, and are fighting for the northern part of Tarasovka, also surrounding the enemy in Elizavetovka from the south and north on the Konstantinovka direction. Russian military blogger reports, based on preliminary data, that Russian assault units have gained a foothold within the settlement of Bohaytr, noting intense fighting on the outskirts in recent days. Военкор Котенок reports Russian assault units have gained a foothold within the settlement of Bohaytr. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports ongoing air battles in the Southern Donetsk direction with Russian FPV drone crews targeting and destroying Ukrainian heavy-lift drones. Воин DV reports Russian psychological operations involving dropping leaflets on Ukrainian positions in the settlement of Bohaytr, targeting Ukrainian servicemen allegedly forcibly mobilized. Intense ground combat continues to be the defining feature of these areas, with claimed Russian advances.
Sumy Direction: WarGonzo claims Russian forces are developing success in the area of Bilovody and continuing battles for Loknya and Vodolahi. The Ukrainian General Staff reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Myropilske, Krasnopillya, Chernatske of Sumy region yesterday. Филолог в засаде's analysis of drone use in Kursk Oblast mentions roads from Sumy Oblast being targeted. Сливочный каприз reports Russian forces have begun forming a "security zone" in Sumy Oblast after operations in Kursk, claiming control of Zhuravka, Novenkoye, and Basovka as of early May, with fighting in Bilovody and Loknya, and claiming a Russian bridgehead of 80.6 km² in the oblast.
Kharkiv Direction: The Ukrainian General Staff reports six combat engagements near Vovchansk yesterday. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Shevchenko Pershe, Zelene Pole yesterday. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 is conducting training exercises for the 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade and highlights a platoon commander's profile.
Kupyansk Axis: The Ukrainian General Staff reports six enemy attacks near Kolisnykivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka, and Zahryzove yesterday, which were repelled. Russian military bloggers report continued Russian "rolling" attacks on the northern flank near Topolya, using artillery and drones to target Ukrainian positions towards Kolodeznoye and Dvurechansky after liberating Kamenka. They also claim Russian aviation destroyed a large Ukrainian personnel and temporary deployment point (PVD) including foreign mercenaries and drone production facilities near Kupyansk. On the southern flank, control is claimed up to the center of Zagryzovo. These reports indicate continued Russian offensive pressure and claimed tactical gains on this axis.
Lyman Axis: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 27 enemy attacks near Nove, Zelena Dolyna, Kolodyazi, Myrne, Serhiyivka, Hrekivka, and Kopanky yesterday.
Siversk Axis: The Ukrainian General Staff reports one assault near Bilohorivka yesterday, which was repelled. They also report clashes near Ivano-Daryivka and Hryhorivka yesterday.
Toretsk Axis: The Ukrainian General Staff reports eight attacks near Toretsk, Krymske, Druzhba and Sukha Balka yesterday. Russian military bloggers report Russian advances north of the Toretskaya mine, expanding control by 800m, and advances in Shcherbinivka, advancing 1 km and attempting to cut off a Ukrainian grouping. Colonelcassad shares video of the central part of Dzerzhinsk. These reports suggest this area remains a focus of Russian offensive efforts.
Orikhiv Axis: The Ukrainian General Staff reports five assaults near Scherbaky, Mala Tokmachka and Stepove yesterday. They also report clashes near Novodanylivka, Novopokrovka and Kamyanske yesterday, with three unsuccessful attacks on Ukrainian positions.
Huliaipole Axis: The Ukrainian General Staff reports six attacks near Vysoke yesterday, which were repelled. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports the enemy has occupied Zelene Pole. They also report Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Hulyaypole, Malynivka, Novoandriyivka of Zaporizhzhia region yesterday.
Kherson Axis (Dnipro Direction): The Ukrainian General Staff reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 1 Russian army assault yesterday. Liveuamap specifies an unsuccessful enemy attempt to approach Ukrainian fortifications near Vynohradne and Hola Prystan. Два майора reports Russian strikes on targets in Burgunka and Berislav, potentially in retaliation for the attack on Novorossiysk.
Kursk Region (Russia): The Ukrainian General Staff reports repelling 23 Russian army assaults yesterday. They also report 256 artillery shelling attacks by the enemy, 10 from MLRS, 7 airstrikes, and 15 guided aerial bombs dropped yesterday. Confirmed drone interception (1) over the past night (previously reported by Colonelcassad). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА reports some drones shot down over Kursk Oblast overnight. Старше Эдды and Два майора (citing Rybar and Warrior of North) provide detailed claims of Russian successes in regaining control of Popovka and Demidovka by April 13th. ТАСС shows captured Western weaponry claimed from Gornal. Филолог в засаде analyzes the effectiveness of drone use in isolating the battlefield in this region. Сливочный каприз reports on the completion of the "counter-terrorist operation" in Kursk Oblast and the subsequent formation of a "security zone" in Sumy Oblast.
Belgorod Oblast (Russia): Confirmed drone interception (1) over the past night (previously reported by Colonelcassad). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА reports some drones shot down over Belgorod Oblast overnight. Старше Эдды and Два майора (citing Rybar and Warrior of North) provide detailed claims of Russian successes in regaining control of Popovka and Demidovka by April 13th.
Crimea (Occupied): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА reports a large number of drones shot down over Crimea overnight as part of a Ukrainian attack.
Krasnodar Krai (Russia): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА reports a large number of drones shot down over Krasnodar Krai overnight as part of a Ukrainian attack. ТАСС reports three workers died in a ground collapse in Gelendzhik.
Rostov Oblast (Russia): Confirmed drone interceptions (11) over the past night (previously reported by Colonelcassad). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА reports some drones shot down over Rostov Oblast overnight.
Bryansk Oblast (Russia): ASTRA reports the "Strela" transformer factory in Suzemka is on fire due to shelling/attack. Confirmed drone interception (1) over the past night (previously reported by Colonelcassad). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА reports some drones shot down over Bryansk Oblast overnight. The Ukrainian General Staff reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Mkhy of Chernihiv region yesterday (Liveuamap Source).
Black Sea: Оперативний ЗСУ reports, citing Budanov, that two Russian Su-30 aircraft were shot down by AIM-9 missiles launched from drone boats. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА reports the use of eight Storm Shadow and Neptun missiles in the Black Sea overnight.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an air raid alert across the entire oblast due to a ballistic missile threat from the south. (Operational Status: Resolved)
Slovyansk (Donetsk Oblast): РБК-Україна reports a massive Russian drone attack using six "Geran-2" drones, with all impacts on a construction base, causing damage but no casualties.
Burgunka (Kherson Oblast): Два майора reports Russian strikes on targets here.
Berislav (Kherson Oblast): Два майора reports Russian strikes on targets here.
Dzerzhinsk (Donetsk Oblast): Colonelcassad shares video of the central part of the city.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА reports a total of 170 drones shot down over Russian territories overnight, with the majority over Crimea and Krasnodar Krai, and 18 over Rostov, Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk Oblasts. The Ukrainian General Staff reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs operating in southeastern Dnipropetrovsk and northeastern Kharkiv Oblasts yesterday. Ongoing Russian drone activity reported in northern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and west of Kharkiv (previous reporting). Ukrainian forces report striking enemy UAV control points on the Southern Donetsk direction (previous reporting). Russian military bloggers claim the destruction of Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones using FPV drones and artillery on the Southern Donetsk direction (previous reporting). Reports of unknown UAVs attacking the "Strela" factory in Suzemka, Bryansk Oblast (previous reporting). РБК-Україна reports a massive Russian drone attack on Slovyansk using six "Geran-2" drones. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС claims the destruction of an armored tractor by a drone. Филолог в засаде provides detailed analysis of effective drone use in isolating the battlefield in Kursk Oblast. Russian Ministry of Defense claims their air defense shot down 137 Ukrainian UAVs yesterday. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports ongoing air battles in the Southern Donetsk direction with Russian FPV drone crews targeting and destroying Ukrainian heavy-lift drones. Воин DV reports Russian psychological operations involving dropping leaflets using drones on Ukrainian positions in Bohaytr.
Russian Tactical Aviation: The Ukrainian General Staff reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Mkhy of Chernihiv region, Myropilske, Krasnopillya, Chernatske of Sumy region, Shevchenko Pershe, Zelene Pole, Novopil, Komyshuvakha of Donetsk region, Temyrivka, Novodarivka, Hulyaypole, Malynivka, Novoandriyivka of Zaporizhzhia region, Tomaryne of Kherson region yesterday. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 7 airstrikes and 15 guided aerial bombs dropped in Kursk region yesterday. Ongoing KAB strikes reported on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts by President Zelenskyy (previous reporting). According to ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, Russian forces conducted 7 aerial strikes using 11 KABs on the Kharkiv direction over the past day (previous reporting). Russian aviation conducted KAB launches on Sumy, Donetsk, and Kherson Oblasts yesterday (previous reporting). Russian Ministry of Defense claims Operational-Tactical Aviation struck infrastructure of military airfields, drone manufacturing shops, assembly areas of uncrewed surface vessels, ammunition depots, and temporary deployment areas of Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries in 162 areas. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming a timeline of Russian strikes including UMPK (guided aerial bombs) on various locations in Ukraine.
Cruise and Ballistic Missile Activity: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА reports the use of eight Storm Shadow and Neptun missiles in the Black Sea overnight. Reported Houthi ballistic missile strike on or near Ben Gurion airport in Israel (previous reporting). This highlights ongoing regional conflicts and potential implications for global security and weapons proliferation, while also serving as a narrative piece supporting anti-Western and anti-Israeli sentiment. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a ballistic missile threat from the south. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an air raid alert due to this threat. (Operational Status: Resolved) Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of alleged rocket impact and crater near Ben Gurion Airport. Russian Ministry of Defense claims their air defense shot down 6 US-made JDAM guided bombs yesterday. Russian Ministry of Defense claims Missile Troops struck infrastructure of military airfields, drone manufacturing shops, assembly areas of uncrewed surface vessels, ammunition depots, and temporary deployment areas of Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries in 162 areas. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming a timeline of Russian strikes including Iskander-M on Akkerman, Odesa Oblast.

Diplomatic and Political Developments:

Russian President Putin's Statements: Дневник Десантника reiterates President Putin's statements about inevitable peace with Ukraine being a matter of time and Russia maintaining "cold-bloodedness" despite provocations. Putin stated that Russia does not need nuclear weapons to finish the SVO and expressed hope they would not be necessary (previous reporting). Alex Parker Returns shares a statement attributed to "Pypa" about maintaining cold-bloodedness despite provocations.
Russian Information Operations: Alex Parker Returns shares a statement attributed to "Pypa" about reconciliation and asking if "Mykola" is offended. «Зона СВО» shares a nationalistic video emphasizing Russia's internal strength and unity. Дневник Десантника reiterates President Putin's statements. ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova's statement criticizing the UK for inviting Ukrainian Armed Forces to the London parade. Russian information operation using AI-generated Charles de Gaulle message shared by Басурин о главным (previous reporting). Commemorative events related to Victory Day are being held, including in Washington, D.C., with a reported "Immortal Regiment" action and counter-protest (previous reporting). Russian military bloggers are showcasing images and videos of Russian drones participating in a Victory Day parade training in Moscow (previous reporting). A new report from the police in Khabarovsk Krai details various law enforcement activities (previous reporting). Russian military blogger, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, reports continued enemy reconnaissance activity over the Black Sea, sharing an image from Flightradar24 (previous reporting). TASS reports that videoblogger Amiran Sardarov owes almost half a million rubles to the Federal Tax Service (previous reporting). ASTRA reports that the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, shared an image depicting Zelenskyy, drones, and a burning Red Square, with a caption suggesting this day was brought closer, framed within the context of Zelenskyy's earlier statement about not guaranteeing safety in Moscow on May 9th (previous reporting). Басурин о главным shares a piece analyzing India's recent purchase of French Rafale aircraft instead of Russian MiGs (previous reporting). РБК-Україна and ASTRA report on the upcoming presidential elections in Romania (previous reporting). ASTRA reports that a poster in Ruzа, Moscow Oblast, for May 9th contained a misspelling (previous reporting). Alex Parker Returns shares a video with a derogatory caption about an incident in Stavropol Krai (previous reporting). Новости Москвы reports that Russian athlete Varvara Kuzminova set two world records in weightlifting (previous reporting). Басурин о главным shares a report about a Swedish minister's statement regarding revoking residency permits for participants of Victory Day car rallies (previous reporting). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА shares a video claiming to show a captured Ukrainian soldier in Sumy Oblast, framing it sarcastically (previous reporting). Два майора shares a video from the Konstantinovskoye direction and links it to a fundraising appeal (previous reporting). Новости Москвы reports that Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Russia from May 7-10 to participate in Victory Day events (previous reporting). ТАСС reports that the head of Rossotrudnichestvo stated Russia will cope with provocation attempts in Western countries on May 9th. Рыбарь reports that Zelenskyy rejected Putin's three-day ceasefire proposal, calling it insufficient, and that statements from Kyiv indicated an inability to guarantee the safety of guests in Moscow for the celebrations, concluding that calmness is not expected. Рыбарь also reiterates that ceasefires are only possible on a reciprocal basis and that the situation has not changed, emphasizing that front-line realities dictate the diplomatic agenda. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video featuring a Ukrainian actor criticizing those who avoid mobilization, contrasted with the actor's son reportedly "defending his postgraduate studies," likely a Russian information operation to highlight perceived hypocrisy and discourage Ukrainians from evading service. ТАСС reports that China and Russia will promote a "correct view of the history of the Second World War." Воин DV reports Russian psychological operations involving dropping leaflets on Ukrainian positions in Bohaytr, specifically targeting Ukrainian servicemen allegedly forcibly mobilized, urging them to surrender.
Slovak Prime Minister to Attend Victory Day in Moscow: Alex Parker Returns reports that Robert Fico confirmed his attendance and called Zelenskyy's threats unacceptable.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's Statements: Comments on the overnight Russian attacks, the scale of drone usage, and reiteration of Ukraine's conditions for a real ceasefire (previous reporting). Рыбарь reports that Zelenskyy rejected Putin's three-day ceasefire proposal, calling it insufficient.
Reported Treatment of Political Prisoner in Russia: ASTRA reports on the alleged lack of medical care and poor conditions for Alexander Strukov in a penal colony (previous reporting).
"Immortal Regiment" Action and Counter-Protest in Washington D.C.: STERNENKO reports on the events, highlighting the Russian propaganda effort and the Ukrainian community's counter-action.
Cuban President to Attend Victory Day Parade: Colonelcassad reports that Miguel Díaz-Canel announced his attendance at the May 9th parade in Moscow.
China-Russia Cooperation: ТАСС reports that China and Russia will strengthen cooperation within the UN, SCO, and BRICS, and will promote a "correct view of the history of the Second World War." ТАСС also reports that Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Russia will deepen mutual political trust and enrich strategic cooperation. These reports indicate continued diplomatic alignment and coordination between the two countries.
German Chancellor's Speech: РБК-Україна reports that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz connected his speech at a WWII commemorative ceremony to Russia's war against Ukraine, stating Putin brought war to Europe again and that Germany will not accept it. This highlights continued strong condemnation of Russia's actions by Germany.

Internal Russian Issues:

Confirmed Attack and Fire at "Strela" Factory: ASTRA reports on the incident in Suzemka, Bryansk Oblast, confirming damage and fire at a defense-related enterprise.
Reported Treatment of Political Prisoner: ASTRA reports on the alleged lack of medical assistance and poor working conditions for Alexander Strukov in a penal colony in Tver (previous reporting).
Putin on Reconciliation and Cold-Bloodedness: Statements regarding reconciliation with Ukrainians and Russia's calm response to provocations (previous reporting). Alex Parker Returns shares a statement attributed to "Pypa" about maintaining cold-bloodedness despite provocations.
Putin on Not Needing Nuclear Weapons: Statement regarding Russia's sufficient capabilities without nuclear weapons (previous reporting).
Overnight Drone Interceptions: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА reports 170 drones shot down over Russian territories overnight, including 18 over Rostov, Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk Oblasts. Russian Ministry of Defense claims 13 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs were destroyed over Rostov, Belgorod, and Bryansk Oblasts (previous reporting by Colonelcassad). Russian Ministry of Defense claims their air defense shot down 137 Ukrainian UAVs yesterday.
Temporary Restrictions and Delays at Vnukovo Airport: Restrictions and delays due to a "Kover" plan (previous reporting).
Ukrainian Strike on "Strela" Factory in Suzemka, Bryansk Oblast: Successful Ukrainian strike on a defense-related industrial facility in Russia (previous reporting).
Dismantling of Soviet Memorial in Lviv (Viewed from Russian Perspective): Russian military blogger reports the dismantling of the "Hill of Glory" memorial in Lviv (previous reporting).
Ramzan Kadyrov congratulates on Spring and Labor Day (previous reporting).
Voronezh Oblast Governor congratulates on Spring and Labor Day (previous reporting).
Russian Ministry of Finance Raises 2025 Budget Deficit Forecast (previous reporting).
Moscow transport authorities advising drivers with summer tires (previous reporting).
Law enforcement conducted a raid on a swinger club in Moscow (previous reporting).
Points for distributing water and bio-toilets set up near Crimean Bridge (previous reporting).
ASTRA reports that a resident of Chita, Russia, was sentenced for "state treason" (previous reporting).
Internal Russian security incident in Moscow (previous reporting).
ASTRA reports that a 12-year-old schoolboy in Samara documenting poor road conditions (previous reporting).
Rybar analysis of preparation for Bohaytr assault (previous reporting).
TASS reports first regular flight from Russia to Abkhazia since 1993 (previous reporting).
Colonelcassad commemorates holidays and founding of PMC Wagner (previous reporting).
TASS reports start of "Flame of Memory" car rally in Moscow (previous reporting).
Claimed Russian Successes in Regaining Control of Border Settlements in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts: Старше Эдды and Два майора (citing Rybar and Warrior of North) provide detailed accounts of claimed Russian successes in liberating Popovka and Demidovka by April 13th. ТАСС showcases captured Western weaponry claimed from Gornal, Kursk Oblast. Филолог в засаде analyzes the effectiveness of drone use in isolating the battlefield in this region.
Confirmed Fatal Construction Incident: ТАСС reports that three workers died in a ground collapse in Gelendzhik. This is an internal, non-military incident.
Internal Russian Non-Military News: Новости Москвы reports that washing cars at a dacha can result in a fine of up to 5000 rubles. This is a non-military internal Russian news item.

Support and Rehabilitation:

Continued Fundraising for Russian Units: Филолог в засаде reports on the purchase of tactical headphones and a mast for the 1307th regiment using donor funds (previous reporting). Два майора and Старше Эдды (citing Rybar and Warrior of North) conclude their report on fighting in the Krasnoyaruzhsky district with a link to support. Филолог в засаде's analysis of drone use also includes a link to support.
Discussions on Tactical Medicine: Два майора shares a detailed column on the use of Ceftriaxone in tactical medicine (previous reporting).
Fundraising efforts for military units are actively being promoted by both Ukrainian and Russian military bloggers, highlighting ongoing logistical needs and reliance on public support (previous reporting).
Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" conducting a fundraising campaign for Ukrainian SOF (previous reporting).
РБК-Україна reports that a unit of the "Rubizh" Brigade is fundraising (previous reporting).
Олександр Вілкул shares photos and information about a spring art exhibition in Kryvyi Rih featuring children's work (previous reporting). This highlights cultural cooperation and local efforts to preserve arts education and provide shelters in cultural institutions amidst the conflict.
Ukrainian Forces Training: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares photos and text detailing ongoing training of infantry from the 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 also shares a profile of a platoon commander, highlighting the value of his skills and dedication. This highlights the ongoing efforts by Ukrainian forces to maintain and improve their combat readiness through realistic training scenarios and the dedication of personnel.

Potential Future Developments

Continued Russian Offensive Pressure with Focus on Key Axes: Expect sustained Russian assaults on multiple axes, particularly on the Donetsk Front (including Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar), Sumy, Kharkiv, Lyman, Kupyansk, Siversk, Toretsk, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, and Kherson directions, as indicated by the high volume of enemy attacks reported by the Ukrainian General Staff and claimed Russian advances by WarGonzo and other Russian military bloggers. The reinforcement of Ukrainian defenses on the Pokrovsk direction suggests its continued strategic importance. Russian claims of regaining control in border settlements and showcasing captured equipment suggest continued efforts to push Ukrainian forces back from Russian territory. The reported establishment of a new "security zone" and claimed territorial gains by Russia in the Sumy border region indicates a potential new area of focused Russian offensive operations. Continued claims of advances on the Toretsk and Kupiansk directions suggest these will remain areas of significant fighting.
Persistent and Potentially Escalated Russian Aerial Attacks: Russia is likely to continue large-scale drone and guided aerial bomb attacks across Ukraine, with a continued risk of high civilian casualties and collateral damage, particularly in urban areas and border regions. The continued operation of Russian reconnaissance UAVs suggests ongoing targeting efforts. The massive drone attack on Slovyansk indicates a potential for concentrated strikes on specific areas. Russian military bloggers detailing claimed strike operations including UMPK and Iskander-M suggest these types of strikes will continue. The claimed Russian air defense successes and strikes on Ukrainian military infrastructure indicate continued efforts to degrade Ukrainian capabilities.
Continued and Evolving Ukrainian Deep Strikes: Ukraine is likely to continue large-scale combined unmanned and missile attacks on Crimea, Russian naval assets and infrastructure in the Black Sea, and potentially other Russian territory, particularly targeting defense-related industrial facilities as evidenced by the attack on the "Strela" factory. The claimed capability of Ukrainian drone boats to engage air targets with AIM-9 missiles, if widely adopted, could represent a significant escalation and force changes in Russian air and naval tactics. Russian efforts to counter these attacks will continue, and their claimed success in downing a large number of drones overnight suggests ongoing adaptation of their air defense. The claimed use of Storm Shadow and Neptun missiles in the Black Sea indicates continued targeting of Russian naval or coastal assets.
Increased Diplomatic Maneuvering and Information Warfare Around May 9th: The diplomatic landscape around potential peace negotiations remains complex. The statements from Russian officials and pro-Russian sources regarding Victory Day, coupled with events like the "Immortal Regiment" action and counter-protest in Washington D.C., and confirmed attendance of foreign leaders like the Cuban President, indicate intensified information operations and diplomatic tensions surrounding this symbolic date. Expect further propaganda efforts and potentially heightened military activity around this period. Zelenskyy's rejection of the ceasefire proposal and inability to guarantee safety in Moscow underscores the lack of appetite for de-escalation around this period. Continued alignment and cooperation between China and Russia, particularly concerning historical narratives, will likely be a focus of both countries. German Chancellor Scholz's strong condemnation of Russia's actions at a WWII commemorative event highlights continued Western opposition.
Highlighting of Internal Russian Issues: Reports on issues within Russia, such as the confirmed attack on the "Strela" factory, alleged treatment of political prisoners, and potential discipline issues within the military, are likely to continue and may be used in information operations. The confirmed fatal construction incident in Gelendzhik is an internal, non-military issue but is being reported by Russian state media. Non-military internal news items like the car washing fine are also being disseminated.
Continued Focus on Tactical Medicine and Unit Support: The continued discussions on tactical medicine and ongoing fundraising efforts highlight the importance of medical readiness and logistical support for both sides. The detailed analysis of drone use for battlefield isolation and its link to fundraising underscores the perceived strategic importance of drone capabilities.
Geopolitical Implications of Regional Conflicts: The reported Houthi missile strike on Israel (previous reporting) underscores the potential for regional conflicts to have broader geopolitical implications. Video of alleged rocket impact and crater near Ben Gurion Airport reinforces the reality of these regional tensions.
Diplomatic Maneuvering and Stances: Statements and actions by international figures and leaders, such as the Slovak Prime Minister's decision to attend Victory Day in Moscow and the Cuban President's confirmed attendance, will continue to highlight differing diplomatic stances on the conflict.
Increased Focus on Drone Warfare Tactics: The detailed Russian military blogger analysis of drone use for battlefield isolation in Kursk Oblast suggests this tactic may be increasingly employed and discussed by Russian forces. Ukrainian efforts to counter unconventional Russian vehicles like the "armored tractor" highlight the evolving nature of ground combat and the role of drones in targeting such assets. Russian military bloggers detailing air battles in the Southern Donetsk direction and claiming to destroy Ukrainian heavy-lift drones indicate the continued importance of counter-drone efforts. Psychological operations using drones, as reported in Bohaytr, demonstrate evolving tactics.
Continued Threat of Ballistic Missile Attacks: The ballistic missile threat alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast indicates the continued and immediate threat of Russian ballistic missile use targeting southern Ukraine, specifically Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (Operational Status: Resolved)
Maintaining Combat Readiness through Training: The detailed reporting on Ukrainian infantry training highlights ongoing efforts to maintain and improve combat effectiveness, which will be crucial for sustained defense and counter-operations.
Potential for Further Territorial Changes: DeepState's map updates indicating claimed Russian occupation and advances near Nove and Novomykhailivka suggest the potential for further territorial changes as intense ground combat continues. Russian claims of establishing a "security zone" and controlling territory in Sumy Oblast indicate a potential for significant territorial changes in that border region.
Heightened Focus on Military Losses and Equipment Destruction: The Russian Ministry of Defense detailing claimed Ukrainian losses in personnel and equipment across all groupings underscores the intensity of the fighting and is likely intended to impact morale. The specific mention of Western-made equipment highlights the ongoing narrative around military aid to Ukraine.

Potential Indicators

Observable changes in the intensity or direction of ground assaults on key fronts, particularly the Donetsk Front (including Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar), Sumy, Kharkiv, Lyman, and Kupyansk axes. Independent verification of claimed territorial gains will be crucial, especially regarding Russian claims in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts, DeepState's claimed Russian advances, and the claimed establishment and territorial control within the "security zone" in Sumy Oblast. Independent verification of claimed Russian advances on the Toretsk and Kupiansk directions.
Further reports on the scale and locations of Russian drone and aerial attacks, and the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense. Reports on the continued use of thermobaric warheads. Reports on the use of "Geran-2" drones in other areas or increased frequency of such attacks. Confirmation or refutation of claimed downing of US-made JDAMs by Russian air defense.
Further reports or visual evidence of Ukrainian drone, unmanned boat, and missile activity targeting Crimea, Novorossiysk, and other Russian territory, and Russian responses, including claimed interceptions, damage assessments, and changes in naval/air tactics in the Black Sea. Independent verification and further details of the claimed hit on two Russian Su-30s by drone boats with AIM-9 missiles, including photographic or video evidence. Confirmation or refutation of claimed Russian strikes on specific Ukrainian targets in Sumy and Odesa.
Any official statements or significant developments in diplomatic efforts related to peace negotiations, including responses to Ukraine's 30-day ceasefire proposal and any concrete steps towards de-escalation or continued conflict. Any changes in the stated positions of the US or other international actors regarding their role in negotiations. Any changes in the attendance plans of foreign leaders for the May 9th parade in Moscow and associated explanations, and any new confirmations of attendance. Further statements or actions related to China-Russia cooperation, particularly regarding international platforms and historical narratives.
Further reports, investigations, or official responses regarding incidents of alleged criminal behavior and discipline failures among Russian military personnel.
Increased or decreased intensity and nature of information operations from both sides, particularly around May 9th. New propaganda themes, significant media campaigns, or alleged false flag operations. The types of imagery and messaging used will be indicative. Observable impacts of censorship efforts in Russia. Further content from Russian military bloggers regarding the conflict, including claims of Ukrainian losses and equipment destruction, and narratives around mobilization. Further information regarding the attack on Serhii Sternenko and its alleged motives. Further reports on Russian state media framing of events in Germany or concerning the US-Ukraine mineral agreement. Continued psychological operations using drones.
Observable changes in the intensity, targeting, or types of Russian aerial attacks, particularly the use of guided aerial bombs and the routes and concentrations of drone activity. Reports on Ukrainian counter-drone efforts and their effectiveness. The frequency of ballistic missile threat alerts in southern Ukraine.
Any observable impact of reported logistical challenges or changes in military procurement or funding, including the impact of potential restrictions on fundraising for foreign armies and the success or failure of specific unit fundraising efforts.
Further details or official statements regarding the political maneuvering and pressures around countries' attendance at the May 9th parade in Moscow and the reasons for any cancellations.
Continued reporting on military adaptation and training efforts on both sides, including the integration of new technologies and tactics, particularly regarding unmanned systems and counter-drone measures. Reports on the development or deployment of unconventional armored vehicles by Russia and Ukrainian efforts to counter them. Reports on ongoing air battles in the Southern Donetsk direction and the effectiveness of FPV drones in countering heavy-lift drones.
Updates on the humanitarian situation in affected areas, including the condition of the injured and the impact on civilian life and infrastructure. Further information or investigations into alleged war crimes and efforts to control the narrative around events like the Mariupol Drama Theater destruction.
Any observable shifts in military movements or unusual activity in border regions or within Russia in the lead-up to May 9th, potentially related to heightened security or planned military actions. Further reports or visual evidence supporting the claimed establishment of a "security zone" in Sumy Oblast.
Further details on the effectiveness of Ukrainian efforts to counter Russian reconnaissance UAVs.
Public and official reaction to the proposed reopening of the Mariupol Drama Theater.
Any official US statements or actions regarding new sanctions against Russia and further details on their scope and timing.
Continued reporting or official statements regarding the efforts to liberate Ukrainian prisoners of war and raise international awareness about alleged war crimes.
Any further reports or visual evidence of sniper activity on the front lines.
Further analysis and potential adoption of drone-based battlefield isolation tactics by Russian forces in other areas.
Confirmation or refutation of Russian claims regarding the number of Ukrainian personnel and equipment losses.
Further reports on the non-military incident in Gelendzhik.

Operational Summary

The operational situation remains highly dynamic with intense ground combat occurring across numerous fronts, particularly on the Donetsk Front (including Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar), Sumy, Kharkiv, Lyman, Kupyansk, Siversk, Toretsk, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, and Kherson directions. Russia continues to conduct large-scale aerial attacks using drones and guided aerial bombs across Ukraine, resulting in civilian casualties and collateral damage, and there is a current ballistic missile threat in southern Ukraine. Ukraine continues its deep strike operations into Russian territory and occupied Crimea, with a notable recent attack involving a large number of drones and missiles and a claimed significant tactical success of downing Russian Su-30s with drone boats utilizing AIM-9 missiles. The attack on the "Strela" factory highlights successful targeting of Russian defense-related infrastructure. Russian sources are claiming recent successes in regaining control of border settlements in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts, showcasing captured equipment, and are now claiming the establishment of a new "security zone" with territorial control in the Sumy border region. Russian military bloggers are providing detailed analysis of the claimed effectiveness of drone use for battlefield isolation tactics in the Kursk operation and are detailing claimed advances on the Toretsk and Kupiansk directions. Information operations and diplomatic maneuvering, particularly around the upcoming May 9th Victory Day, remain active, with strong rhetoric, competing narratives, confirmed attendance of foreign leaders at the Moscow parade, and continued alignment between China and Russia. Internal Russian issues and the broader geopolitical context, including regional conflicts and non-military incidents, continue to influence the conflict. The high volume of attacks across various axes underscores the continued intensity of the conflict and the strategic importance of numerous sectors of the front line. Ukrainian forces are actively engaged in training to maintain combat readiness and are adapting to counter unconventional Russian tactics and vehicles. Russian military bloggers are detailing claimed high Ukrainian losses and equipment destruction, including Western-supplied assets. Drone warfare continues to be a critical element, with ongoing air battles and the use of drones for psychological operations.

Situation Report