Sitrep 2025-05-04 06:49:12

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 4, 2025, 06:48 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational tempo remains exceptionally high, dominated by intense ground combat on multiple axes, particularly the Pokrovsk, Novopavlivsk, Toretsk (Konstantinovka), Lyman, and Krasnolimansk directions. Russian forces continue offensive operations, reporting claimed advances and heavy engagements in these areas, specifically highlighting claimed tactical gains in Novoalexandrovka and near Shevchenko on the Pokrovsk direction, and near Velyka Novosilka and on the Aleksandro-Kalinovo direction. Recent analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), shared by РБК-Україна and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, indicates Russian advances near Lyman, Siversk, Novopavlivka, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka, while ISW maps show Ukrainian counterattacks in a number of areas, indicating active and dynamic fighting on these fronts. Ukrainian forces report repelling a high number of assaults across numerous fronts and inflicting significant enemy losses, with ISW maps showing Ukrainian counterattacks in a number of areas. Russian sources are disseminating claimed visual evidence of Ukrainian casualties in border regions, specifically near Guyevo in Kursk Oblast, alongside propaganda encouraging surrender. The conflict is also characterized by persistent, widespread, and evolving Russian aerial and drone activity across widespread areas of Ukraine. Recent reports confirm launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation targeting Sumy Oblast, northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, and now Donetsk Oblast, with the Ukrainian Air Force confirming launches targeting Kherson Oblast in a previous report and issuing a warning for Donetsk Oblast. Ongoing "Shahed" drone activity is impacting various regions, including recent and current threats to Kyiv, Cherkasy, Dnipro, Mirhorod, Sloviansk, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, potentially Vinnytsia, and now northeastern Vinnytsia Oblast and southeastern Zhytomyr Oblast, with air raid alerts active in some of these areas, including a new threat of strike UAVs for Khmelnytskyi Oblast from the east reported by the Ukrainian Air Force. Specifically, a new warning has been issued for Vinnytsia regarding an approaching strike UAV from the north, and for southeastern Zhytomyr Oblast. Recent detailed reporting provides an updated picture of remaining Russian drone activity across various oblasts, including movements towards Zhytomyr Oblast, Fastiv, Vasylkiv, Kremenchuk district, eastern Kyiv Oblast, and the Konotop area. Video evidence is emerging from Kyiv showing impacts on multi-story buildings and fires, with new photos from the State Emergency Service showing firefighters extinguishing fires in apartments and burned cars in Obolonskyi, Sviatoshynskyi, and Shevchenkivskyi districts. The aftermath of the night attacks in Kyiv is being assessed, with confirmed damage and fires from falling debris and a rising number of civilian medical appeals, now totaling 4 injured, all receiving aid on the spot, with previous reports from the DSNS indicating a total of 7 injured, including 2 children, and the latest reports from РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ stating 11 injured, including 2 children. Simultaneously, Ukrainian forces are conducting effective deep strikes against Russian targets, with confirmed drone interceptions over Belgorod and Murmansk Oblasts, and reports of successful FPV drone strikes against Russian logistics and personnel, including a claimed drone destroyed over Kamensk-Shakhtinsky in Rostov Oblast, reported by TASS. Russia is claiming successful counter-drone and counter-artillery operations, including the claimed elimination of nine Ukrainian soldiers in Gornal, Kursk Oblast, by a marine of the "Sever" grouping. A Russian military blogger, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, reports continued enemy reconnaissance activity over the Black Sea, sharing an image from Flightradar24 showing a Saab 340B ISR aircraft over Bulgaria and near Istanbul. The Black Sea remains a contested area, with Russian military bloggers discussing potential renewed Ukrainian drone activity, expressing concern about the Black Sea Fleet's reduced combat capability, and raising the specter of a potential large-scale attack on the Crimean Bridge. Information operations continue to be a significant element, with both sides leveraging narratives around military successes, casualties, and future aid. Diplomatic activity continues, with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announcing upcoming sanctions against entities assisting Russia in circumventing existing sanctions and reiterating Ukraine's readiness for a ceasefire under specific conditions, while facing continued diplomatic friction with Hungary and potential political changes in Slovakia and Serbia regarding attendance at Victory Day events in Moscow, with the Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament stating Europe has lost competitiveness due to sanctions against Russia. Discussions regarding potential peace negotiations and the role of international actors are also ongoing, with new reports from US media highlighting difficulties in the implementation of the US-Ukraine mineral resources deal, and a report from the Financial Times suggesting Kyiv may resume military aggression if a peace agreement does not include recognition of territories incorporated into Russia. The humanitarian impact of the conflict remains severe, with continued civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure reported on both sides, currently evidenced by damage and fires from falling drone debris and civilian medical appeals in Kyiv and Cherkasy, the extensive destruction of Toretsk, and a significant increase in the number of injured in the Russian drone attack on Zaporizhzhia. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of the Kharkiv Oblast Administration, reports one man killed and four women injured in shelling in Kharkiv Oblast yesterday, along with significant damage to civilian infrastructure including administrative buildings, private homes, apartment buildings, a post office, a school, a warehouse, and cars in Izium and Kupiansk districts, and a private house in Kharkiv district. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports an object in Sloviansk was damaged by 6 "Geran" drones overnight, with damage to premises and equipment in the Zaliznychnyi microdistrict reported by local authorities. Fundraising efforts for military units are actively being promoted by both Ukrainian and Russian military bloggers, highlighting ongoing logistical needs and reliance on public support. Internal Russian issues, including military welfare and potential dissent, are also being discussed in open source channels, including a reported confusing situation on the Volga River, legal proceedings initiated by the Russian Ministry of Defense against a major state-owned enterprise, and security forces conducting raids on bars in St. Petersburg and Yekaterinburg, checking documents, tattoos, and phones, and questioning individuals about their political views and attitudes towards the "SVO." TASS reports that videoblogger Amiran Sardarov owes almost half a million rubles to the Federal Tax Service, according to law enforcement sources. Ukraine is facing potential challenges with electricity generation this summer, with potential evening deficits. Commemorative events related to Victory Day are being held, including in Washington, D.C. Russian military bloggers are showcasing images and videos of Russian drones participating in a Victory Day parade training in Moscow, including Orlans, Iks, and Geraniums, likely as part of information operations. A new report from the police in Khabarovsk Krai details various law enforcement activities in that far eastern region of Russia, including theft, property damage, violations of fire safety regulations, fraud, and illegal labor activities by migrants, providing a glimpse into localized internal Russian issues. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming that snipers of the 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, "Vostok" grouping, neutralized enemy personnel in a forest belt on the Southern Donetsk direction, as reported by the military blogger "Воин DV". This suggests ongoing Russian small arms engagements and claims of success on the Southern Donetsk direction. РБК-Україна, citing ISW maps, reports assessed Russian advances near Lyman, Siversk, Novopavlivka, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka, and Ukrainian counterattacks in a number of areas. These maps further corroborate the intense fighting on these fronts and indicate areas of contested control. Specific ISW maps provided by РБК-Україна and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS show assessed Russian advances north of Sumy Oblast, extending into Ukraine, and Russian field fortifications in Kursk Oblast, as well as significant fighting near Makivka. These maps provide visual confirmation of the operational situation in the border regions and highlight a specific area of recent intense combat. ISW maps also detail assessed Russian advances and significant fighting in the Pokrovsk direction, Novopavlivka direction (specifically detailing advances towards Bahatyr and along a highway south of Vilne Pole), Svatove-Kreminna direction (with geolocated footage confirming advances west of Makiivka and north of Torske), Kherson direction (showing assessed advances and Ukrainian counteroffensives), and Zaporizhzhia direction (highlighting significant fighting around Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka). These detailed maps from ISW provide a comprehensive overview of the most active fronts, highlighting areas of Russian gains, Ukrainian resistance, and intense combat, supported by specific geolocated intelligence where available. New reports from the Ukrainian Air Force provide updated information on the movement of enemy strike UAVs in Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts. Николаевский Ванёк provides granular details on the remaining drone activity, specifically noting three drones approaching Starokonstantiniv, one near Khmelnytskyi, and one from Zhytomyr Oblast heading towards Starokonstantiniv. The Ukrainian Navy and General Staff report the presence of one Russian warship capable of carrying up to 6 Kalibr missiles in the Black Sea, no ships in the Azov Sea, and three ships including one Kalibr carrier with up to 8 missiles in the Mediterranean Sea, along with Kerch Strait passage information. Новости Москвы reports on one-time payments to WWII veterans and other categories in Moscow. TASS reports that citizens of Kyrgyzstan were injured in a landslide in Gelendzhik. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade shares a video reporting on their combat work from April 27 to May 3. Два майора provides a morning summary (May 4), reporting a drone attack repelled in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, consequences of Ukrainian strikes on Novorossiysk including casualties and damage, intensified Ukrainian drone strikes on civilian targets in Bryansk Oblast causing casualties and damage to infrastructure, continued Russian drone strikes on Mirople in Sumy Oblast and advances by Russian forces near Loknya and Vodolagi in Sumy Oblast, continued Ukrainian activity and Russian claims of repelling attacks in Belgorod Oblast with civilian casualties from shelling and drone attacks, confirmation from Ukrainian channels of Russian advances under Pokrovsk in the central and eastern parts of Shevchenko village and fighting in Kotlyarka and Mirolyubovka, Russian claims of repelling counterattacks near Novoolenevka and developing success in Alexandropol and near Malinovka on the Konstantinovka direction, reports of fighting on the outskirts of Bogatyr on the Southern Donetsk direction with claimed advances and ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks, positional battles in the Zaporizhzhia direction near Shcherbaki, Stepovoe, and Kamenskoe with Russian artillery strikes and Ukrainian strikes on the Russian-occupied part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast causing damage and casualties, and continued Ukrainian shelling of Horlivka in the DNR causing a casualty and damage to a gas pipeline with reported use of 155mm and cluster munitions. Colonelcassad shares photos claiming to show Ukrainian trophies on the Pokrovsk direction. РБК-Україна reports one person injured in a drone attack on Cherkasy overnight with 5 fires reported at various addresses causing damage to residential apartments, a warehouse, a dacha, and dry vegetation. Оперативний ЗСУ shares photos and videos of the aftermath of the night attack on Kyiv, reporting 7 injured and destruction and fires in Obolonskyi, Sviatoshynskyi, and Shevchenkivskyi districts, detailing specific damage to a 12-story building, cars, private houses, and infrastructure near a railway bridge. Воин DV shares a video claiming that UAV operators of the "Vostok" grouping destroyed a Ukrainian hiding place near Bogatyr. The Ukrainian General Staff reports corrected overall enemy losses since February 24, 2022, with adjustments to numbers of tanks, armored combat vehicles, artillery systems, air defense systems, UAVs, cruise missiles, and special equipment due to updated intelligence. The overall estimated enemy personnel losses are now over 956,810, with an additional 1340 in the past day. Daily losses are reported as 1340 personnel, 11 tanks, 24 armored fighting vehicles, 52 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 1 air defense system, 163 UAVs, and 129 vehicles and fuel tanks. The total count of certain equipment types (tanks, AFVs, artillery, air defense, UAVs, cruise missiles, special equipment) has been updated in the cumulative statistics. РБК-Україна reports that according to the State Emergency Service (DSNS), the number of injured in Kyiv due to the drone attack has increased to 11 people, including 2 children. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports on the situation in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, stating that overnight, Russian forces shelled Nikopol district with 40 Grad MLRS rounds, causing fires and damage to three enterprises, two apartment buildings, and two private houses. In the morning, enemy forces used FPV drones and artillery to attack the Marhanets and Pokrovsk communities. Shahed drones also attacked the oblast overnight, damaging a agricultural enterprise in the Dnipro district. In the evening, the enemy used UAVs against the Novopavlivka community in Synelnykove district, injuring two police officers. Three enemy drones were shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports that at least eight enemy KABs attacked the frontline city of Orikhiv, destroying residential buildings and injuring two people. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 provides a summary of enemy attacks on 10 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past day, including 10 aerial strikes on Malynivka, Temerivka, and Novodarivka, 256 drone attacks on Bilenke, Kamianske, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, and Novodarivka, 15 MLRS shellings on Kamianske, Huliaipole, Novodanylivka, and Novodarivka, and 216 artillery shellings on Kamianske, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, and Novodarivka. 26 reports of damaged apartments, private houses, and cars were received, with no civilian casualties reported in this summary. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that over the past night, 13 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs were destroyed by air defense, including 11 over Rostov Oblast, 1 over Belgorod Oblast, and 1 over Bryansk Oblast. This is also reported by TASS and Два майора. AV БогомаZ reports that a Ukrainian aircraft-type UAV was detected and destroyed by air defense over Bryansk Oblast overnight, with no reported casualties or damage. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that the threat of enemy strike UAVs has been cleared for all oblasts. Басурин о главном shares a historical note about Vladimir Monomakh entering Kyiv on May 4, 1113, and highlights his leadership and achievements, including uniting much of Rus' and pushing back nomadic threats. This is presented in the context of "DAY in HISTORY." Multiple images shared by РБК-Україна depict the aftermath of drone attacks in the Obolonskyi district of Kyiv, showing damage to a shopping center, residential buildings, and burnt cars, visually confirming the civilian impact. РБК-Україна and АSTRA confirm one person injured and multiple fires in Cherkasy due to the overnight drone attack, with damage to residential and commercial properties. РБК-Україна provides an overnight summary highlighting the drone attack on Kyiv (11 injured, 2 children, damage in 3 districts), the attack on Cherkasy (1 injured, fires), France's commitment to produce 1200 AASM Hammer smart bombs for Ukraine, and the planned visit of the head of the Pentagon to Israel before Trump's Middle East trip. Воин DV reports on successful artillery and FPV drone strikes by Russian forces on the Southern Donetsk direction, claiming the destruction of two M-198 howitzers, a pickup truck, eight "Baba Yaga" and ten quadcopter-type UAVs, and disrupting Ukrainian personnel landings and logistics near Voskresenka. STERNENKO shares a message calling for donations for the "extermination" of Russians. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on the death of Leo Åland, the son of a Finnish politician, who was fighting for Ukraine, claiming he wanted to return home and was killed by an FPV drone, with his body left on the battlefield, and the Finnish Foreign Ministry expressing concern about mercenaries being unable to terminate contracts. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of children in Mali preparing for Victory Day, framed as a cultural event and expressing desire to visit Russia. Fighterbomber, a Russian military blogger, expresses frustration with Ukrainian claims of a Russian Su-30 being shot down in Crimea, stating he found no evidence after checking the area and questioning the credibility of such reports. ТАСС reports that a Russian official stated that inflation in Russia could be reduced by increasing production and future cuts in state spending. Оперативний ЗСУ provides a summary of combat activity and enemy losses over the past day, reporting 253 combat engagements, including 113 on the Pokrovsk and 66 on the Novopavlivka directions, with extensive use of KABs (158 + 15 on Kursk), shelling (6384), and kamikaze drones (2760), and reporting Ukrainian forces hitting two command posts, five artillery systems, one EW station, seven areas of personnel and equipment concentration, two UAV control points, and one air defense system. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a battle map for the Pokrovsk direction, indicating 113 combat engagements and successful Ukrainian defense against Russian advances in multiple locations. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a battle map for the Novopavlivka direction, indicating 66 repelled Russian assaults in numerous settlements and directions. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a battle map for the Kursk direction, indicating 23 combat engagements with heavy enemy artillery and aerial activity. ТАСС reports that according to Russian security forces, Ukrainian 21st, 22nd, 61st, and 67th separate mechanized brigades in Sumy Oblast are suffering significant losses, and the 36th separate marine brigade has lost combat capability. ASTRA reports that the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, shared an image depicting Zelenskyy, drones, and a burning Red Square, with a caption suggesting this day was brought closer, framed within the context of Zelenskyy's earlier statement about not guaranteeing safety in Moscow on May 9th. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provides an update on the overnight Russian drone attack, stating that Russia launched 165 strike UAVs and drone imitators, with 69 strike UAVs (Shahed and other types) shot down in the east, north, south, and center of the country. 80 drone imitators were "locationally lost" without negative consequences. The attack affected Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, and Kyiv Oblasts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares the same information from the Ukrainian Air Force regarding the overnight drone attack and the number of downed UAVs and drone imitators. ASTRA also reports on the overnight Russian drone attack with the same numbers of launched and downed UAVs and drone imitators, adding that according to local authorities, a construction base in Sloviansk, Donetsk Oblast, was affected. Оперативний ЗСУ echoes the Ukrainian Air Force's report on the overnight drone attack. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a photo showing smoke in the area of an electrical equipment enterprise in Bryansk Oblast after a drone attack, suggesting a successful Ukrainian strike on Russian infrastructure. Басурин о главном shares a piece analyzing India's recent purchase of French Rafale aircraft instead of Russian MiGs, highlighting perceived Indian irrationality, fear of sanctions, and potential incompatibility of the aircraft with Indian aircraft carriers as an argument for India to return to partnership with Russia. This serves as a Russian information operation aimed at influencing India's defense procurement and highlighting perceived flaws in Western military technology and partnerships. ТАСС reports temporary restrictions were introduced at Vnukovo airport. ASTRA and Новости Москвы report that Vnukovo airport temporarily suspended operations with delayed flights due to a "Kover" plan. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares information that France plans to increase the production of AASM Hammer guided aerial bombs to 1200 in 2025 and intends to transfer all of them to Ukraine, highlighting the importance of these bombs for the Ukrainian Air Force. This indicates continued Western military aid with precision-guided munitions. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video piece about the history of Crimea's transfer to Ukraine, likely for informational or historical context within the current conflict. РБК-Україна and ASTRA report on the upcoming presidential elections in Romania, highlighting a pro-Russian radical candidate, Russian interference, and the position of candidates regarding Ukraine. This suggests potential shifts in the political landscape of a neighboring country with implications for regional dynamics. ASTRA reports that a poster in Ruzа, Moscow Oblast, for May 9th with a portrait of Zoya Kosmodemyanskaya contained a misspelling, prompting local authorities to remove it and apologize. This is a minor internal Russian issue but can be used in information operations. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming a Houthi hypersonic missile launched from Yemen hit Ben Gurion airport in Israel, stating it likely used the "Palestine-2" missile and emphasizing the Houthis' continued attacks on Israel despite US-led strikes. This highlights ongoing regional conflicts and potential implications for global security and weapons proliferation, while also serving as a narrative piece supporting anti-Western sentiment.

Major Updates from the Article:

Large-Scale Russian Drone Attack Overnight: Russia launched 165 strike UAVs and drone imitators overnight, with 69 strike UAVs successfully shot down by Ukrainian air defense. 80 drone imitators were "locationally lost" without negative consequences. The attack impacted Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, and Kyiv Oblasts. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна)
Civilian Casualties and Damage in Kyiv: The number of injured in Kyiv due to the overnight drone attack has increased to 11 people, including 2 children, according to the State Emergency Service (DSNS). Damage and fires from falling debris were reported in Obolonskyi, Sviatoshynskyi, and Shevchenkivskyi districts. (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Civilian Casualties and Damage in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Overnight shelling of Nikopol district with 40 Grad MLRS rounds caused fires and damage. Morning FPV drone and artillery attacks occurred in Marhanets and Pokrovsk communities. A Shahed attack damaged an agricultural enterprise in Dnipro district. An evening UAV attack in Novopavlivka community injured two police officers. Three enemy drones were shot down over the oblast overnight. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), РБК-Україна) Three people were injured in a drone attack on Marhanets, Nikopol district, including two men and a woman, all hospitalized. Previous shelling in Nikopol damaged four private homes, several outbuildings, a garage, a greenhouse, and cars. Morning drone attacks damaged private homes in Marhanets and Myrivka communities. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА))
Civilian Casualties and Damage in Kharkiv Oblast: One man was killed and four women were injured in shelling yesterday. Civil infrastructure was damaged in Izium, Kupiansk, and Kharkiv districts, including administrative buildings, homes, a post office, a school, a warehouse, and cars. (Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА)
Damage in Sloviansk, Donetsk Oblast: An object in Sloviansk was damaged by 6 "Geran" drones overnight, affecting premises and equipment in the Zaliznychnyi microdistrict. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA) ASTRA specifically reports it was a construction base.
Updated Ukrainian General Staff Enemy Loss Statistics: Corrected overall enemy losses since February 24, 2022, with adjustments to numbers of tanks, armored combat vehicles, artillery systems, air defense systems, UAVs, cruise missiles, and special equipment due to updated intelligence. The overall estimated enemy personnel losses are now over 956,810, with an additional 1340 in the past day. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Russian Claims of Advances on Multiple Fronts and ISW Confirmation: Russian military bloggers claim advances on various fronts, and ISW analysis, cited by Ukrainian sources, indicates Russian advances near Lyman, Siversk, Novopavlivka, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka. ISW maps also show assessed Russian advances north of Sumy Oblast and significant fighting in the Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Svatove-Kreminna, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia directions. (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Ukrainian Counterattacks Shown on ISW Maps: ISW maps shared by Ukrainian sources show Ukrainian counterattacks in a number of areas, indicating active resistance against Russian advances. (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post Near Bakhmut: The Ukrainian Air Force conducted a strike on the command post of the Russian 6th Motorized Rifle Division in the Bakhmut area, significantly degrading Russian command and control on the Pokrovsk sector. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Information Operation Regarding Fallen Russian Soldier: A Ukrainian military blogger shares photos and information about a fallen Russian soldier, Sergey Deliev, a commander of the "Somali" battalion, who reportedly died in June 2023 in the Vuhledar area, highlighting his purported rank and using the image of his tombstone with a map of Ukrainian cities to emphasize Russian losses in these areas. (Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц")
Ukrainian Military Unit Drone Effectiveness Report: "Birds of Magyar" of the 414th Separate Marine Unmanned Systems Battalion report on their work in April, claiming 5840 unique targets and 1804 personnel losses for the enemy were verified and confirmed through the Delta military awareness system. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Russian Information Operation Targeting India's Defense Procurement: A Russian military blogger analyzes India's purchase of French Rafale aircraft instead of Russian MiGs, presenting it as an example of poor decision-making influenced by fear of sanctions and suggesting potential incompatibility issues with Indian aircraft carriers as a reason for India to reconsider partnership with Russia. (Басурин о главном)
France to Provide More AASM Hammer Guided Bombs to Ukraine: France plans to increase production of AASM Hammer guided aerial bombs to 1200 in 2025 and intends to transfer all of them to Ukraine, indicating continued Western military aid with precision-guided munitions. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Upcoming Presidential Elections in Romania with Pro-Russian Candidate: Upcoming presidential elections in Romania are highlighted, with a focus on a pro-Russian radical candidate, reported Russian interference, and the candidates' stances on Ukraine. This suggests potential political shifts in a neighboring country with regional implications. (РБК-Україна, ASTRA)
Temporary Suspension of Operations at Vnukovo Airport: Vnukovo airport in Moscow temporarily suspended operations with delayed flights due to a "Kover" plan. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Новости Москвы)
Russian Military Blogger Claims Houthi Hypersonic Missile Hit Ben Gurion Airport: A Russian military blogger claims a Houthi hypersonic missile launched from Yemen hit Ben Gurion airport in Israel, stating it likely used the "Palestine-2" missile and emphasizing the Houthis' continued attacks on Israel despite US-led strikes. This highlights ongoing regional conflicts and potential implications for global security. (Colonelcassad)

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Pokrovsk Direction: Extremely high intensity with 113 combat engagements reported in the past day, according to the Ukrainian General Staff and Оперативний ЗСУ. Intense ground combat continues with Russian claims of advancing over 1 km near Krasnoarmeysk. Russian sources showcase claimed destruction of NATO equipment. Heavy fighting continues according to WarGonzo. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a battle map illustrating the numerous combat engagements and areas of Russian advances and Ukrainian defense. Colonelcassad shares photos of claimed Ukrainian trophies on this direction. Two Majors reports confirmed Ukrainian channel reports of Russian advances under Pokrovsk in the central and eastern parts of Shevchenko village and fighting in Kotlyarka and Mirolyubovka. The Ukrainian strike on the Russian 6th Motorized Rifle Division command post near Bakhmut is expected to significantly degrade Russian command and control on this sector. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Novopavlivka Direction: Very high intensity with 66 repelled Russian assaults reported in the past day, according to the Ukrainian General Staff and Оперативний ЗСУ. Intense ground combat with Russian claims of advancing over 1 km and heavy engagements near Velyka Novosilka. ISW analysis indicates Russian advances. Detailed ISW maps show assessed Russian advances towards Bahatyr and south of Vilne Pole. Dva Mayora reports fighting on the outskirts of Bogatyr on the Southern Donetsk direction. Voindv claims destruction of a Ukrainian hiding place near Bogatyr. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a battle map illustrating the numerous repelled Russian assaults in multiple settlements and directions.
Lyman Direction: High activity with 16 Russian attacks in the past day reported by the Ukrainian General Staff. Russian forces continue focused offensive efforts. ISW analysis indicates Russian advances. Detailed ISW maps show significant fighting.
Toretsk Direction: 7 Russian attacks in the past day reported by the Ukrainian General Staff. Russian forces continue focused offensive efforts. Intense ground combat and combined Russian assaults reported according to previous updates. Ukrainian forces repelling attacks. Active combat near Kurakhove, with Russian light motorized rifle units advancing according to previous reports. Ukrainian Presidential Brigade showcasing effectiveness according to previous reports. Two Majors reports Russian claims of repelling counterattacks near Novoolenevka and developing success in Alexandropol and near Malinovka on the Konstantinovka direction.
Kursk Oblast (RU): High intensity with 23 combat engagements in the past day, according to the Ukrainian General Staff and Оперативний ЗСУ. Heavy enemy artillery (256 shellings, including 10 MLRS) and aerial activity (7 strikes, 15 KABs) reported by the Ukrainian General Staff. Ukrainian forces are conducting operations and inflicting losses. Ongoing combat involving North Korean troops. Russia claims to have intercepted 1 Ukrainian UAV overnight. A Russian documentary about "Kursk Battle" is announced. Ukrainian territorial control estimated at 43.4 sq km, a decrease from March. ISW maps depict Russian field fortifications and assessed Russian advances north of Sumy. TASS reports that according to Russian security forces, Ukrainian 21st, 22nd, 61st, and 67th separate mechanized brigades in Sumy Oblast are suffering significant losses, and the 36th separate marine brigade has lost combat capability. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a battle map illustrating the combat engagements and heavy enemy activity.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Overnight shelling of Nikopol district with 40 Grad MLRS rounds, causing fires and damage. Morning FPV drone and artillery attacks on Marhanets and Pokrovsk communities. Overnight Shahed attack damaging an agricultural enterprise in Dnipro district. Evening UAV attack on Novopavlivka community injuring two police officers. Three enemy drones were shot down overnight. Three people were injured in a drone attack on Marhanets, including two men (39 and 68) and a 75-year-old woman, all hospitalized in moderate condition. Previous shelling in Nikopol damaged four private homes, outbuildings, a garage, a greenhouse, and cars. Morning drone attacks damaged private homes in Marhanets and Myrivka communities. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА))
Kharkiv Oblast: 5 combat engagements in the past day in the Vovchansk area reported by the Ukrainian General Staff. Six Russian attacks on the Kupyansk direction repelled by Ukrainian forces, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. Launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) confirmed on northeastern Kharkiv Oblast. ISW maps depict assessed Russian advances north of Sumy, relevant to the border region. Russian tactical aviation conducted airstrikes at Tsapivka, Velyki Prokhody, Dementiyivka, Odradne of Kharkiv region, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a battle map for the Kupyansk direction, indicating repelled Russian assaults. One man killed and four women injured in shelling yesterday, along with significant damage to civilian infrastructure in Izium, Kupiansk, and Kharkiv districts. (Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА)
Kyiv Oblast: Aftermath of night attacks with confirmed damage and a rising number of civilian medical appeals (now 11 injured, including 2 children). Fires from falling debris and damaged infrastructure reported in Obolonskyi, Sviatoshynskyi, and Shevchenkivskyi districts. Updated information on drone movement, with a threat from the southeast reported earlier. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) details the damage in Obolonskyi, Shevchenkivskyi, and Sviatoshynskyi districts. Multiple images from РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ visually confirm the aftermath and damage. (РБК-Україна)
Chernihiv Oblast: New groups of Shaheds reported earlier. Russian tactical aviation conducted airstrikes at Mkhy of Chernihiv region, according to the Ukrainian General Staff.
Sumy Oblast: Launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) confirmed. ISW maps depict assessed Russian advances north of Sumy and fighting near Makivka. Dva Mayora reports continued Russian drone strikes on Mirople and claimed advances near Loknya and Vodolagi. Russian tactical aviation conducted airstrikes at Myropilsk, Krasnopillia, Chernatske of Sumy region, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. TASS reports that according to Russian security forces, Ukrainian 21st, 22nd, 61st, and 67th separate mechanized brigades in Sumy Oblast are suffering significant losses, and the 36th separate marine brigade has lost combat capability. ISW maps show assessed Russian advances extending into Ukraine north of Sumy. (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Poltava Oblast: New groups of Shaheds reported earlier.
Cherkasy Oblast: One person injured in a drone attack overnight with 5 fires causing damage to residential apartments, a warehouse, a dacha, and dry vegetation, according to РБК-Україна and ASTRA. Significant damage to two apartments in a 4-story dormitory.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: At least eight enemy KABs attacked Orikhiv, destroying residential buildings and injuring two people. Over the past day, 10 aerial strikes, 256 drone attacks, 15 MLRS shellings, and 216 artillery shellings on 10 settlements were reported, according to 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦. Russian tactical aviation conducted airstrikes at Temirivka, Novodarivka, Huliaipole, Malynivka, Novoandriivka of Zaporizhzhia region, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. Detailed ISW maps highlight significant fighting around Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka. Dva Mayora reports positional battles near Shcherbaki, Stepovoe, and Kamenskoe, and Ukrainian strikes on the Russian-occupied part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast causing damage and casualties.
Rostov Oblast (RU): Russian air defense claimed to have destroyed 11 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs overnight. A drone attack was repelled in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky.
Khmelnytskyi Oblast: Threat of strike UAVs from the east reported earlier, with specific drones approaching Starokonstantiniv and near Khmelnytskyi noted. The threat has been cleared.
Southern Donetsk Direction: Dva Mayora reports fighting on the outskirts of Bogatyr with claimed advances and ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks. Voindv claims destruction of a Ukrainian hiding place near Bogatyr. Воин DV reports on successful artillery and FPV drone strikes by Russian forces, claiming the destruction of two M-198 howitzers, a pickup truck, eight "Baba Yaga" and ten quadcopter-type UAVs, and disrupting Ukrainian personnel landings and logistics near Voskresenka.
Siversk Direction: 3 combat engagements in the past day reported by the Ukrainian General Staff. ISW analysis indicates Russian advances. Detailed ISW maps show significant fighting.
Kramatorsk Direction: 6 enemy attacks in the past day repelled by the Ukrainian General Staff.
Orikhiv Direction: 3 unsuccessful attacks by Russian forces in the past day near Novodanylivka, Novopokrovka, and Kamianske reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
Prydniprovka Direction: 1 unsuccessful enemy attempt to approach Ukrainian fortifications in the past day reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
Bryansk Oblast (RU): Russian air defense claimed to have destroyed 1 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAV overnight. AV Bogomaz also reports the destruction of an aircraft-type UAV overnight with no reported casualties or damage. Dva Mayora reports intensified Ukrainian drone strikes on civilian targets causing casualties and damage to infrastructure. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a photo showing smoke near an electrical equipment enterprise after a drone attack.
Novorossiysk (Krasnodar Krai, RU): Dva Mayora reports consequences of Ukrainian strikes here, including 95 damaged apartments, 5 injured civilians (including 2 children), and a Ukrainian unmanned boat with an R-73 shot down near here.
Horlivka (DNR, Russian-occupied Donetsk Oblast): Dva Mayora reports continued Ukrainian shelling here causing a casualty and damage to a gas pipeline.
Donetsk Oblast: Impacted by the overnight Russian aerial attack. KAB launches reported targeting the oblast in previous reporting and a new warning issued by the Ukrainian Air Force. Russian tactical aviation conducted airstrikes at Shakhove, Novoekonomichne, Poltavka, Malynivka, Nova Poltavka, Hnativka, Pokrovsk, Novoserhiyivka, Udachne, Novopavlivka, Novopil of Donetsk region, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. Two Majors reports confirmation from Ukrainian channels of Russian advances under Pokrovsk and fighting in Kotlyarka and Mirolyubovka, and Russian claims of repelling counterattacks near Novoolenevka and developing success in Alexandropol and near Malinovka on the Konstantinovka direction. An object in Sloviansk was damaged by 6 "Geran" drones overnight, affecting premises and equipment in the Zaliznychnyi microdistrict. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA)
Belgorod Oblast (RU): Russian air defense claimed to have destroyed 1 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAV overnight. Two Majors reports continued Ukrainian activity and Russian claims of repelling attacks in Belgorod Oblast with civilian casualties from shelling and drone attacks.
Vovchansk (Kharkiv Oblast): Five combat engagements reported in the past day, according to Oleg Syniehubov, Head of the Kharkiv Oblast Administration.
Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast): Six Russian attacks repelled in the past day in the area of Zagryzove and in the directions of Novoosinove and Hlushkivka, according to Oleg Syniehubov, Head of the Kharkiv Oblast Administration. Four women injured in shelling.
Izium District (Kharkiv Oblast): Three administrative buildings, 8 private houses, 3 apartment buildings, a post office, a school building, a warehouse, and 2 cars damaged by shelling, according to Oleg Syniehubov, Head of the Kharkiv Oblast Administration.
Kharkiv District (Kharkiv Oblast): A private house damaged by shelling, according to Oleg Syniehubov, Head of the Kharkiv Oblast Administration.
Borova (Kharkiv Oblast): A man killed in shelling, according to Oleg Syniehubov, Head of the Kharkiv Oblast Administration.
Sloviansk (Donetsk Oblast): Object damaged by 6 "Geran" drones overnight, with damage to premises and equipment in the Zaliznychnyi microdistrict reported by local authorities, according to Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны. ASTRA reports it was a construction base.
Bakhmut (Donetsk Oblast): Command post of the Russian 6th Motorized Rifle Division hit by the Ukrainian Air Force in recent days, significantly degrading Russian command and control capability on the Pokrovsk sector, according to the Ukrainian General Staff and РБК-Україна.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Continued, widespread, and dynamic Russian drone activity reported across multiple oblasts with updated and detailed trajectories provided. Russia launched 165 strike UAVs and drone imitators overnight, with 69 strike UAVs (Shahed and other types) shot down. 80 drone imitators were "locationally lost." The attack affected Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, and Kyiv Oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force later reported that the threat of enemy strike UAVs has been cleared for all oblasts. Launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation on Sumy, northeastern Kharkiv, Donetsk, and now Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts have been confirmed. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 256 drone attacks on various settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past day. Russian air defense claimed to have destroyed 13 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs overnight, including 11 over Rostov, 1 over Belgorod, and 1 over Bryansk Oblasts. AV Bogomaz also reports the destruction of an aircraft-type UAV over Bryansk Oblast overnight with no reported casualties or damage. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports FPV drone attacks on Marhanets and Pokrovsk communities, Shahed attacks on Dnipro district, and UAV attacks on Novopavlivka community in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with three drones shot down overnight. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Russian forces used 2760 kamikaze drones in the past day. Воин DV reports on successful Russian FPV drone strikes on the Southern Donetsk direction, claiming the destruction of eight "Baba Yaga" and ten quadcopter-type UAVs. Oleg Syniehubov reports 9 "Shahed" and 8 unidentified UAVs used by Russia against Kharkiv Oblast yesterday. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports an object in Sloviansk was damaged by 6 "Geran" drones overnight. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a photo showing smoke near an electrical equipment enterprise in Bryansk Oblast after a drone attack. "Birds of Magyar" report destroying 5840 unique enemy targets using drones in April. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Russian Tactical Aviation: Launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) on Sumy, northeastern Kharkiv, Donetsk, and now Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts have been confirmed. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 10 aerial strikes on Malynivka, Temerivka, and Novodarivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past day. Russian tactical aviation conducted airstrikes at Mkhy of Chernihiv region; Myropilsk, Krasnopillia, Chernatske of Sumy region; Shevchenko Pershe, Zelene Pole, Novopil, Komyshuvakha of Donetsk region; Temirivka, Novodarivka, Huliaipole, Malynivka, Novoandriivka of Zaporizhzhia region; Tsapivka, Velyki Prokhody, Dementiyivka, Odradne of Kharkiv region; Shakhove, Novoekonomichne, Poltavka, Malynivka, Nova Poltavka, Hnativka, Pokrovsk, Novoserhiyivka, Udachne, Novopavlivka, Novopil of Donetsk region, and Hulyaypole, Mali Scherbaka, Novoandriyivka of Zaporizhzhia region, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. The Ukrainian General Staff reports Russian forces conducted 81 aerial strikes and used 158 guided bombs (plus 15 on Kursk region) in the past day. Oleg Syniehubov reports 11 KABs and 18 unguided aerial missiles used by Russia against Kharkiv Oblast yesterday.
Black Sea Reconnaissance: Continued enemy reconnaissance activity over the Black Sea reported.
Naval Presence: One Russian warship capable of carrying up to 6 Kalibr missiles in the Black Sea, no ships in the Azov Sea, and three ships including one Kalibr carrier with up to 8 missiles in the Mediterranean Sea reported as of 06:00 on May 4th.
Kerch Strait Traffic: Passage of 13 vessels to the Black Sea and 3 vessels to the Azov Sea reported in the last day.
Ukrainian Naval Activity: Dva Mayora reports that a Ukrainian unmanned boat with an R-73 surface-to-air missile was shot down near Novorossiysk two evenings prior.
Artillery and MLRS Activity: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports overnight shelling of Nikopol district with 40 Grad MLRS rounds, and morning artillery attacks on Marhanets and Pokrovsk communities in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 15 MLRS shellings and 216 artillery shellings on various settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past day. Dva Mayora reports continued Ukrainian shelling of Horlivka in the DNR. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Russian forces conducted 6384 shellings and 113 MLRS shellings in the past day. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a battle map for the Kursk direction indicating 256 artillery shellings, including 10 MLRS. Воин DV reports on successful Russian artillery strikes on the Southern Donetsk direction.

Diplomatic and Political Developments:

Russian Information Operations: Continued promotion of Russian military narratives and historical narratives, including highlighting claimed successes and criticizing Ukraine. Showcasing of Russian drones in a Victory Day parade training in Moscow. Reports on Victory Day payments in Moscow. Basurin o glavnom shares a historical note about Vladimir Monomakh entering Kyiv. Dnevnik Desantnika shares a statement from the Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament claiming Europe has lost competitiveness due to sanctions against Russia. Басурин о главном shares a piece analyzing India's recent purchase of French Rafale aircraft instead of Russian MiGs, highlighting perceived Indian irrationality, fear of sanctions, and potential incompatibility of the aircraft with Indian aircraft carriers as an argument for India to return to partnership with Russia. This serves as a Russian information operation aimed at influencing India's defense procurement and highlighting perceived flaws in Western military technology and partnerships. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video piece about the history of Crimea's transfer to Ukraine, likely for informational or historical context within the current conflict. ASTRA reports a poster in Ruzа, Moscow Oblast, for May 9th with a misspelling, which was removed by local authorities. This is a minor internal Russian issue but can be used in information operations. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming a Houthi hypersonic missile hit Ben Gurion airport in Israel, serving as a narrative piece supporting anti-Western sentiment.
Peace Negotiations and Territorial Disputes: Reports suggest Kyiv may resume military aggression if a peace agreement does not include recognition of territories incorporated into Russia.
International Relations and Victory Day Attendance: TASS reports that the President of Cuba is traveling to Russia to participate in Victory Day celebrations, while the head of the Indian Ministry of Defense may not attend.
France to Produce AASM Hammer Smart Bombs for Ukraine: РБК-Україна reports that France will produce 1200 AASM Hammer smart bombs for Ukraine, according to Le Parisien. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares information that France plans to increase the production of AASM Hammer guided aerial bombs to 1200 in 2025 and intends to transfer all of them to Ukraine, highlighting the importance of these bombs for the Ukrainian Air Force. This indicates continued Western military aid with advanced weaponry.
Head of Pentagon to Visit Israel Before Trump's Middle East Trip: РБК-Україна reports on the planned visit of the head of the Pentagon to Israel before US President Donald Trump's trip to the Middle East, indicating ongoing US diplomatic and security engagements in the region.
Ukrainian Head of Presidential Office Shares Image Referencing Burning Red Square and May 9th: ASTRA reports that the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, shared an image depicting Zelenskyy, drones, and a burning Red Square, with a caption suggesting this day was brought closer, framed within the context of Zelenskyy's earlier statement about not guaranteeing safety in Moscow on May 9th. This is a significant information operation piece, potentially referencing Ukrainian deep strike capabilities and the symbolic importance of May 9th.
Russian Claims of Significant Losses for Ukrainian Brigades in Sumy Oblast: TASS, citing Russian security forces, claims that Ukrainian 21st, 22nd, 61st, and 67th separate mechanized brigades in Sumy Oblast are suffering significant losses, and the 36th separate marine brigade has lost combat capability.
Russian Military Blogger Denies Ukrainian Claim of Su-30 Shot Down in Crimea: Fighterbomber, a Russian military blogger, denies Ukrainian claims of a Russian Su-30 being shot down in Crimea, expressing skepticism about the reports.
Russian Official Comments on Inflation: TASS reports a Russian official's statement on potential ways to reduce inflation in Russia.
Upcoming Presidential Elections in Romania: Upcoming presidential elections in Romania are highlighted, with a focus on a pro-Russian radical candidate, reported Russian interference, and the candidates' stances on Ukraine. This suggests potential political shifts in a neighboring country with regional implications. (РБК-Україна, ASTRA)
Temporary Suspension of Operations at Vnukovo Airport: Vnukovo airport in Moscow temporarily suspended operations with delayed flights due to a "Kover" plan. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Новости Москвы)

Internal Russian Issues:

Information Operations: Continued efforts to shape narratives and promote military capabilities and national events. Basurin o glavnom shares a historical note about Vladimir Monomakh. Басурин о главном shares a piece analyzing India's recent purchase of French Rafale aircraft instead of Russian MiGs. ASTRA reports a poster in Ruzа, Moscow Oblast, for May 9th with a misspelling. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming a Houthi hypersonic missile hit Ben Gurion airport, serving as a narrative piece supporting anti-Western sentiment.
Military Readiness and Propaganda: Showcasing of Russian drones in Victory Day parade training.
Security and Societal Control: Security forces conducting raids on bars in St. Petersburg and Yekaterinburg, checking documents, tattoos, and phones, and questioning individuals about their political views.
Localized Law Enforcement Activities: Police report on various law enforcement activities in Khabarovsk Krai. TASS reports injuries from a landslide in Gelendzhik.
Taxation and Legal Issues: Report on a videoblogger owing taxes.
Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Territory: Dva Mayora reports consequences of Ukrainian strikes on Novorossiysk, including casualties and damage. Intensified Ukrainian drone strikes on civilian targets in Bryansk Oblast causing casualties and damage to infrastructure. Russian air defense claimed to have destroyed 13 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over Rostov, Belgorod, and Bryansk Oblasts overnight. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a photo showing smoke near an electrical equipment enterprise in Bryansk Oblast after a drone attack.
Russian Official Comments on Inflation: TASS reports a Russian official's statement on potential ways to reduce inflation.
Temporary Suspension of Operations at Vnukovo Airport: Vnukovo airport in Moscow temporarily suspended operations with delayed flights due to a "Kover" plan. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Новости Москвы)
Poster Misspelling in Moscow Oblast: A poster in Ruzа, Moscow Oblast, for May 9th with a portrait of Zoya Kosmodemyanskaya contained a misspelling, which was removed by local authorities. (ASTRA)

Support and Rehabilitation:

Ukrainian Psychological Support: General Staff reports on psychological support officers utilizing a therapy dog from the 5th Separate Heavy Mechanized Brigade.
Fundraising: STERNENKO shares a message calling for donations. Dnevnik Desantnika shares a fundraising appeal for two Mavic 3 drones for Russian paratroopers on the Zaporizhzhia direction. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА is conducting a giveaway of three iPhones, likely for promotional purposes.
Ukrainian Military Unit Drone Effectiveness Report: "Birds of Magyar" of the 414th Separate Marine Unmanned Systems Battalion report on their work in April, claiming 5840 unique targets and 1804 personnel losses for the enemy were verified and confirmed through the Delta military awareness system. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)

Other Information:

Humanitarian Situation: Continued civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure reported on both sides, including the increased number of injured in Kyiv (now 11), casualties and damage in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts (including Orikhiv), and reported casualties and damage in Novorossiysk and Bryansk Oblast. One person injured in a drone attack in Cherkasy. Multiple images from РБК-Україна visually confirm the civilian impact and damage in Kyiv and Cherkasy. Oleg Syniehubov reports one man killed and four women injured in shelling in Kharkiv Oblast yesterday, along with significant damage to civilian infrastructure. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports an object in Sloviansk was damaged by 6 "Geran" drones overnight, with damage to premises and equipment in the Zaliznychnyi microdistrict reported by local authorities. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) and Генеральний штаб ЗСУ share information regarding the daily minute of silence for those killed in the conflict, emphasizing the human cost. Three people were injured in a drone attack on Marhanets, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА))
Ukrainian Military Unit Reporting: The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade shares a video reporting on their combat work from April 27 to May 3. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a report from "Birds of Magyar" regarding their work in April, claiming 5840 unique targets and 1804 personnel losses for the enemy.
Historical Commemoration: Basurin o главном shares a historical note about Vladimir Monomakh entering Kyiv on May 4, 1113. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video piece about the history of Crimea's transfer to Ukraine.
Updated Enemy Losses: The Ukrainian General Staff reports corrected overall enemy losses since February 24, 2022, with adjustments to numbers of tanks, armored combat vehicles, artillery systems, air defense systems, UAVs, cruise missiles, and special equipment due to updated intelligence. The overall estimated enemy personnel losses are now over 956,810, with an additional 1340 in the past day. Multiple reports from РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ confirm these updated statistics. ОТУ "Харків" shares a graphic detailing estimated cumulative and daily enemy losses.
Report on Death of Finnish Foreign Fighter: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on the death of Leo Åland, the son of a Finnish politician, who was fighting for Ukraine, claiming he wanted to return home and was killed by an FPV drone. This highlights the presence and fate of foreign fighters.
Cultural/Botanical News: РБК-Україна shares an interview with the deputy director of the Grishko Botanical Garden in Kyiv, discussing various botanical topics and projects.
Russian Military Blogger Claims Ukrainian Casualties: Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares information and images claiming the death of a commander from the "Somali" battalion, Sergey Deliev, who reportedly died on June 5, 2023.
Russian Military Blogger Propaganda on Ukrainian Military: Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show a Ukrainian "hohlotelega" being destroyed, using derogatory language.
Upcoming Presidential Elections in Romania: Upcoming presidential elections in Romania are highlighted, with a focus on a pro-Russian radical candidate, reported Russian interference, and the candidates' stances on Ukraine. (РБК-Україна, ASTRA)
Temporary Suspension of Operations at Vnukovo Airport: Vnukovo airport in Moscow temporarily suspended operations with delayed flights due to a "Kover" plan. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Новости Москвы)
Russian Military Blogger Claims Houthi Hypersonic Missile Hit Ben Gurion Airport: A Russian military blogger claims a Houthi hypersonic missile launched from Yemen hit Ben Gurion airport in Israel, stating it likely used the "Palestine-2" missile and emphasizing the Houthis' continued attacks on Israel despite US-led strikes. (Colonelcassad)
US Court Ruling on Voice of America: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that a US federal appeals court annulled a district court decision that required reinstating Voice of America employees and resuming broadcasts and grants, stating the resumption of Voice of America is canceled according to Reuters. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)

Potential Future Developments

Continued High Probability of Russian Offensive Operations: The reports of intense fighting and claimed advances on key fronts, supported by ISW analysis showing Russian gains and Ukrainian counterattacks, indicate that Russian forces will maintain their offensive pressure. The very high number of combat engagements on the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions suggests these will remain primary areas of Russian effort. Russian military bloggers detailing claimed Russian advances on the Kupiansk and Toretsk directions suggest intensified fighting on these axes. The reported transfer of the 155th Marine Brigade to Pokrovsk suggests a potential major push in this area.
Continued High Probability of Russian Aerial and Drone Attacks: The widespread nature of Russian aerial and drone activity, the confirmed use of guided aerial bombs, and the high number of reported kamikaze drone uses indicate a continued high tempo of attacks across various areas, with a significant risk to civilian infrastructure and casualties. The large number of drones launched overnight underscores this threat. The report of damage in Sloviansk from "Geran" drones indicates continued targeting of infrastructure in Donetsk Oblast. The use of various drone types and unguided aerial missiles in Kharkiv Oblast suggests a diversified aerial attack strategy. The warning for Donetsk Oblast regarding KABs highlights an immediate threat.
Continued Ukrainian Deep Strikes and Drone Operations: Ukrainian forces are likely to continue utilizing drones for deep strikes against Russian territory and assets, as evidenced by claimed interceptions, the information operation piece from Andriy Yermak, and the reported strike near an electrical equipment enterprise in Bryansk Oblast. Russian efforts to counter these will continue. Ukrainian military units reporting on their drone effectiveness, such as "Birds of Magyar," highlights the continued importance of drone operations for Ukraine.
Increased Focus on Information Warfare around May 9th: The proximity to May 9th and the information operation by Andriy Yermak suggest an intensification of propaganda efforts around this symbolic date. Russian military bloggers promoting Victory Day preparations in Mali and showcasing drones in parade training also contribute to the international dimension of this information campaign. The poster misspelling in Moscow Oblast, while minor, highlights the propaganda efforts related to this date.
Potential for Increased Civilian Casualties: The reported civilian casualties on both sides, including the increased number of injured in Kyiv, casualties and damage in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts (including Orikhiv), and reported casualties and damage in Kharkiv Oblast and Sloviansk, underscore the ongoing and direct threat to civilians from continued aerial and drone attacks and shelling. The reported casualties and damage in Kharkiv Oblast and Sloviansk highlight the continued impact on civilian areas. The emphasis on the daily minute of silence by Ukrainian authorities reinforces the human cost of the conflict.
Continued Stalemate in Peace Negotiations: Fundamental disagreements over territorial control are likely to keep diplomatic efforts at a standstill.
Continued Information Warfare: Both sides will continue to utilize information operations to shape narratives and highlight successes, particularly in the lead-up to May 9th. Russian military bloggers' claims regarding European competitiveness and sanctions, propaganda regarding Ukrainian military personnel, and analyses aimed at influencing other countries' defense procurement decisions are examples of ongoing information warfare. The information operation regarding the fallen Russian soldier serves to highlight Russian losses in specific areas. The report on the upcoming Romanian elections and alleged Russian interference suggests a focus on influencing political outcomes in neighboring countries.
Increased Focus on Counter-Armor and Counter-Drone Tactics: The demonstrated effectiveness of FPV drones and the reported high number of UAV losses highlight the continued importance of these tactics and countermeasures. Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian UAVs and the Ukrainian focus on drone operations reinforce this. The fundraising for Mavic 3 drones indicates the continued demand for these assets on the front lines.
Highlighting of Damage from Ukrainian Strikes: Russian sources will likely continue to highlight damage in Russia from Ukrainian strikes as part of their information operations, as seen with the report on the Bryansk Oblast electrical equipment enterprise.
Impact of Updated Enemy Loss Statistics: The corrected statistics from the Ukrainian General Staff will be used to highlight the cost of the conflict to Russia. The detailed graphic from OTU "Kharkiv" provides further ammunition for this narrative.
Continued Humanitarian Response: The rising number of casualties will necessitate continued and potentially increased humanitarian aid and support.
Continued Western Military Aid: France's commitment to producing smart bombs indicates continued provision of advanced weaponry to Ukraine.
Continued Diplomatic Engagements in the Middle East: The planned visit of the head of the Pentagon to Israel before Trump's trip indicates ongoing US security interests and activities in the Middle East, potentially influencing the broader geopolitical context. The claimed Houthi hypersonic missile strike on Israel highlights the ongoing regional tensions.
Focus on Russian Claims of Ukrainian Losses in Sumy Oblast: Russian sources are likely to continue emphasizing claimed Ukrainian losses in Sumy Oblast as part of their information operations. ISW maps showing Russian advances north of Sumy Oblast also contribute to this narrative.
Contestation of Information: The denial by Russian military bloggers of Ukrainian claims, such as the Su-30 being shot down, highlights the ongoing contestation of information and the need for independent verification. Russian military bloggers using derogatory language towards Ukrainian military assets also contributes to this.
Continued Reporting on Foreign Fighter Involvement: The report on the death of a Finnish foreign fighter suggests that information regarding foreign nationals in the conflict will continue to emerge and may be used for propaganda.
Impact of Strikes on Command and Control: The confirmed Ukrainian strike on the Russian 6th Motorized Rifle Division command post near Bakhmut is a significant development that is likely to impact Russian command and control capabilities, particularly on the heavily contested Pokrovsk sector.
Impact of Political Changes in Neighboring Countries: The outcome of the Romanian presidential elections, particularly the performance of a pro-Russian candidate, could have implications for Ukraine and regional stability.
Disruption of Air Travel in Russia: Temporary suspensions of operations at airports like Vnukovo due to "Kover" plans highlight the impact of the conflict on Russian civilian infrastructure and daily life, and could be a response to perceived drone threats.
Uncertainty Regarding Voice of America Operations: The annulment of the court decision regarding Voice of America operations suggests ongoing legal and political challenges for this media outlet, which can impact information dissemination.

Operational Summary

The operational situation remains characterized by sustained and intense ground combat on multiple fronts, with Russian forces continuing offensive actions and claiming advances while Ukrainian forces report repelling numerous assaults, particularly a very high number on the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions. ISW analysis supports the assessment of Russian advances on key fronts, while also indicating Ukrainian counterattacks. The pervasive Russian aerial and drone campaign continues at a high tempo, including a large-scale overnight attack with 165 drones, resulting in civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure across Ukraine, including a significant increase in injured in Kyiv from overnight attacks, casualties and damage in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts (including KAB strikes on Orikhiv), and reported casualties and damage in Kharkiv Oblast and Sloviansk. Ukrainian forces are continuing their effective drone operations, including strikes on Russian territory (such as near an electrical equipment enterprise in Bryansk Oblast), although Russian sources contest some Ukrainian claims. Ukrainian military units are also highlighting their effectiveness in drone warfare, with "Birds of Magyar" reporting a high number of targets destroyed. Diplomatic discussions remain at an impasse due to fundamental disagreements on territorial control. Information operations continue to be a significant element of the conflict, with both sides employing various tactics. The Ukrainian General Staff has corrected overall enemy loss statistics, highlighting the significant cumulative cost of the conflict to Russia. New information reinforces the intensity of fighting, the continued and deadly nature of drone attacks on civilians, the ongoing information war, and the continued Ukrainian capability for deep strikes and naval drone activity. Claims regarding Ukrainian losses in Sumy Oblast and the death of a foreign fighter highlight other dimensions of the conflict. France's commitment to providing a significant number of AASM Hammer smart bombs indicates continued provision of advanced Western military support. A significant development is the confirmed Ukrainian strike on a Russian command post near Bakhmut, which is expected to degrade their command and control on the Pokrovsk sector. Upcoming elections in Romania with a pro-Russian candidate and temporary suspensions of operations at Russian airports highlight potential political shifts and the impact of the conflict on Russian civilian life. The reported annulment of the court decision regarding Voice of America operations suggests ongoing challenges for information dissemination channels.

Potential Indicators

Observable changes in the frontline and territorial control on key axes, particularly Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Lyman, Toretsk, and Kupiansk. Independent verification or detailed reporting on claimed Russian advances and Ukrainian counterattacks.
Further reports of drone attacks, their locations, and impact on civilian and military targets in Ukraine and Russia. Detailed information on the number of launched and intercepted drones and drone imitators. Reports of continued air defense work in affected oblasts. Visual evidence of the aftermath of attacks.
Further reports or visual evidence of Ukrainian drone and unmanned boat activity targeting Russian territory and assets, including any new strikes on Russian infrastructure, and Russian responses, including claimed interceptions or changes in air/naval tactics. Reports on the operational use and effectiveness of Ukrainian "Batyar" strike drones and FPV drones with extended range.
Continued reporting and analysis of the effectiveness of drone operations and counter-drone measures on both sides. Reports on the success of fundraising efforts for drones and other equipment.
Statements and actions from both sides regarding potential peace negotiations, including any response to Ukraine's proposed 30-day ceasefire.
Increased or shifted focus in information operations from either side, particularly around May 9th, including new propaganda themes or significant media campaigns. Further narratives from Russian military bloggers regarding European politics, sanctions, Indian defense procurement, and Ukrainian military personnel. Analysis of content from media trained by RuTube.
Any observable changes in the scale or nature of Russian aerial and drone attacks or Ukrainian deep strikes.
Reports of any further civilian casualties or damage from military actions on either side, particularly in areas recently affected like Kyiv, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Sloviansk.
Further details and assessment of damage in areas impacted by strikes, including the aftermath in Kyiv and Cherkasy.
Reports on military aid deliveries to Ukraine, particularly the arrival or impact of advanced weaponry like the AASM Hammer bombs.
Further information or independent verification regarding Russian claims of significant Ukrainian losses in Sumy Oblast or other areas.
Continued reporting and discussion on the presence and activities of foreign fighters in the conflict.
Any observable reactions or counter-narratives to information operations, such as the image shared by Andriy Yermak or the claims about the Su-30. Russian military bloggers using derogatory language. Responses to the information operation regarding the fallen Russian soldier.
Changes in diplomatic activity or statements regarding the conflict, particularly from the US, France, or other international actors. The outcome and implications of the Romanian presidential elections. Follow-up on the temporary suspension of operations at Vnukovo airport.
Observable changes in military activity along the Ukrainian-Russian border, including the Kursk direction.
Assessment of the impact of the Ukrainian strike on the Russian 6th Motorized Rifle Division command post on Russian command and control effectiveness, particularly on the Pokrovsk sector. Further reports of strikes on Russian command and control nodes.
Reports on the progress of fundraising efforts for military units on both sides and the delivery of procured equipment.
Any observable impact or further developments regarding the annulment of the court decision concerning Voice of America operations.
Further information or impact regarding the claimed Houthi hypersonic missile strike on Ben Gurion airport and regional security.

Situation Report