Sitrep 2025-05-04 05:49:05

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 4, 2025, 05:48 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational tempo remains exceptionally high, dominated by intense ground combat on multiple axes, particularly the Pokrovsk, Novopavlivsk, Toretsk (Konstantinovka), Lyman, and Krasnolimansk directions. Russian forces continue offensive operations, reporting claimed advances and heavy engagements in these areas, specifically highlighting claimed tactical gains in Novoalexandrovka and near Shevchenko on the Pokrovsk direction, and near Velyka Novosilka and on the Aleksandro-Kalinovo direction. Recent analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), shared by РБК-Україна, indicates Russian advances near Lyman, Siversk, Novopavlivka, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces report repelling a high number of assaults across numerous fronts and inflicting significant enemy losses, with ISW maps showing Ukrainian counterattacks in a number of areas. Russian sources are disseminating claimed visual evidence of Ukrainian casualties in border regions, specifically near Guyevo in Kursk Oblast, alongside propaganda encouraging surrender. The conflict is also characterized by persistent, widespread, and evolving Russian aerial and drone activity across widespread areas of Ukraine. Recent reports confirm launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation targeting Sumy Oblast, northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, and now Donetsk Oblast, with a new report from the Ukrainian Air Force confirming launches targeting Kherson Oblast. Ongoing "Shahed" drone activity is impacting various regions, including recent and current threats to Kyiv, Cherkasy, Dnipro, Mirhorod, Sloviansk, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, potentially Vinnytsia, and now northeastern Vinnytsia Oblast and southeastern Zhytomyr Oblast, with air raid alerts active in some of these areas, including a new threat of strike UAVs for Khmelnytskyi Oblast from the east reported by the Ukrainian Air Force. Specifically, a new warning has been issued for Vinnytsia regarding an approaching strike UAV from the north, and for southeastern Zhytomyr Oblast. Recent detailed reporting provides an updated picture of remaining Russian drone activity across various oblasts, including movements towards Zhytomyr Oblast, Fastiv, Vasylkiv, Kremenchuk district, eastern Kyiv Oblast, and the Konotop area. Video evidence is emerging from Kyiv showing impacts on multi-story buildings and fires, with new photos from the State Emergency Service showing firefighters extinguishing fires in apartments and burned cars in Obolonskyi, Sviatoshynskyi, and Shevchenkivskyi districts. The aftermath of the night attacks in Kyiv is being assessed, with confirmed damage and fires from falling debris and a rising number of civilian medical appeals, now totaling 4 injured, all receiving aid on the spot, with previous reports from the DSNS indicating a total of 7 injured, including 2 children. Simultaneously, Ukrainian forces are conducting effective deep strikes against Russian targets, with confirmed drone interceptions over Belgorod and Murmansk Oblasts, and reports of successful FPV drone strikes against Russian logistics and personnel, including a claimed drone destroyed over Kamensk-Shakhtinsky in Rostov Oblast, reported by TASS. Russia is claiming successful counter-drone and counter-artillery operations, including the claimed elimination of nine Ukrainian soldiers in Gornal, Kursk Oblast, by a marine of the "Sever" grouping. A Russian military blogger, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, reports continued enemy reconnaissance activity over the Black Sea, sharing an image from Flightradar24 showing a Saab 340B ISR aircraft over Bulgaria and near Istanbul. The Black Sea remains a contested area, with Russian military bloggers discussing potential renewed Ukrainian drone activity, expressing concern about the Black Sea Fleet's reduced combat capability, and raising the specter of a potential large-scale attack on the Crimean Bridge. Information operations continue to be a significant element, with both sides leveraging narratives around military successes, casualties, and future aid. Diplomatic activity continues, with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announcing upcoming sanctions against entities assisting Russia in circumventing existing sanctions and reiterating Ukraine's readiness for a ceasefire under specific conditions, while facing continued diplomatic friction with Hungary and potential political changes in Slovakia and Serbia regarding attendance at Victory Day events in Moscow. Discussions regarding potential peace negotiations and the role of international actors are also ongoing, with new reports from US media highlighting difficulties in the implementation of the US-Ukraine mineral resources deal, and a report from the Financial Times suggesting Kyiv may resume military aggression if a peace agreement does not include recognition of territories incorporated into Russia. The humanitarian impact of the conflict remains severe, with continued civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure reported on both sides, currently evidenced by damage and fires from falling drone debris and civilian medical appeals in Kyiv and Cherkasy, the extensive destruction of Toretsk, and a significant increase in the number of injured in the Russian drone attack on Zaporizhzhia. Fundraising efforts for military units are actively being promoted by both Ukrainian and Russian military bloggers, highlighting ongoing logistical needs and reliance on public support. Internal Russian issues, including military welfare and potential dissent, are also being discussed in open source channels, including a reported confusing situation on the Volga River, legal proceedings initiated by the Russian Ministry of Defense against a major state-owned enterprise, and security forces conducting raids on bars in St. Petersburg and Yekaterinburg, checking documents, tattoos, and phones, and questioning individuals about their political views and attitudes towards the "SVO." TASS reports that videoblogger Amiran Sardarov owes almost half a million rubles to the Federal Tax Service, according to law enforcement sources. Ukraine is facing potential challenges with electricity generation this summer, with potential evening deficits. Commemorative events related to Victory Day are being held, including in Washington, D.C. Russian military bloggers are showcasing images and videos of Russian drones participating in a Victory Day parade training in Moscow, including Orlans, Iks, and Geraniums, likely as part of information operations. A new report from the police in Khabarovsk Krai details various law enforcement activities in that far eastern region of Russia, including theft, property damage, violations of fire safety regulations, fraud, and illegal labor activities by migrants, providing a glimpse into localized internal Russian issues. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming that snipers of the 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, "Vostok" grouping, neutralized enemy personnel in a forest belt on the Southern Donetsk direction, as reported by the military blogger "Воин DV". This suggests ongoing Russian small arms engagements and claims of success on the Southern Donetsk direction. РБК-Україна, citing ISW maps, reports assessed Russian advances near Lyman, Siversk, Novopavlivka, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka, and Ukrainian counterattacks in a number of areas. These maps further corroborate the intense fighting on these fronts and indicate areas of contested control. Specific ISW maps provided by РБК-Україна show assessed Russian advances north of Sumy Oblast, extending into Ukraine, and Russian field fortifications in Kursk Oblast, as well as significant fighting near Makivka. These maps provide visual confirmation of the operational situation in the border regions and highlight a specific area of recent intense combat. ISW maps also detail assessed Russian advances and significant fighting in the Pokrovsk direction, Novopavlivka direction (specifically detailing advances towards Bahatyr and along a highway south of Vilne Pole), Svatove-Kreminna direction (with geolocated footage confirming advances west of Makiivka and north of Torske), Kherson direction (showing assessed advances and Ukrainian counteroffensives), and Zaporizhzhia direction (highlighting significant fighting around Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka). These detailed maps from ISW provide a comprehensive overview of the most active fronts, highlighting areas of Russian gains, Ukrainian resistance, and intense combat, supported by specific geolocated intelligence where available. New reports from the Ukrainian Air Force provide updated information on the movement of enemy strike UAVs in Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts. Николаевский Ванёк provides granular details on the remaining drone activity, specifically noting three drones approaching Starokonstantiniv, one near Khmelnytskyi, and one from Zhytomyr Oblast heading towards Starokonstantiniv. The Ukrainian Navy and General Staff report the presence of one Russian warship capable of carrying up to 6 Kalibr missiles in the Black Sea, no ships in the Azov Sea, and three ships including one Kalibr carrier with up to 8 missiles in the Mediterranean Sea, along with Kerch Strait passage information. Новости Москвы reports on one-time payments to WWII veterans and other categories in Moscow. TASS reports that citizens of Kyrgyzstan were injured in a landslide in Gelendzhik. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade shares a video reporting on their combat work from April 27 to May 3. Два майора provides a morning summary (May 4), reporting a drone attack repelled in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, consequences of Ukrainian strikes on Novorossiysk including casualties and damage, intensified Ukrainian drone strikes on civilian targets in Bryansk Oblast causing casualties and damage to infrastructure, continued Russian drone strikes on Mirople in Sumy Oblast and advances by Russian forces near Loknya and Vodolagi in Sumy Oblast, continued Ukrainian activity and Russian claims of repelling attacks in Belgorod Oblast with civilian casualties from shelling and drone attacks, confirmation from Ukrainian channels of Russian advances under Pokrovsk in the central and eastern parts of Shevchenko village and fighting in Kotlyarka and Mirolyubovka, Russian claims of repelling counterattacks near Novoolenevka and developing success in Alexandropol and near Malinovka on the Konstantinovka direction, reports of fighting on the outskirts of Bogatyr on the Southern Donetsk direction with claimed advances and ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks, positional battles in the Zaporizhzhia direction near Shcherbaki, Stepovoe, and Kamenskoe with Russian artillery strikes and Ukrainian strikes on the Russian-occupied part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast causing damage and casualties, and continued Ukrainian shelling of Horlivka in the DNR causing a casualty and damage to a gas pipeline with reported use of 155mm and cluster munitions. Colonelcassad shares photos claiming to show Ukrainian trophies on the Pokrovsk direction. РБК-Україна reports one person injured in a drone attack on Cherkasy overnight with 5 fires reported at various addresses causing damage to residential apartments, a warehouse, a dacha, and dry vegetation. Оперативний ЗСУ shares photos and videos of the aftermath of the night attack on Kyiv, reporting 7 injured and destruction and fires in Obolonskyi, Sviatoshynskyi, and Shevchenkivskyi districts, detailing specific damage to a 12-story building, cars, private houses, and infrastructure near a railway bridge. Воин DV shares a video claiming that UAV operators of the "Vostok" grouping destroyed a Ukrainian hiding place near Bogatyr. The Ukrainian General Staff reports corrected overall enemy losses since February 24, 2022, with adjustments to numbers of tanks, armored combat vehicles, artillery systems, air defense systems, UAVs, cruise missiles, and special equipment due to updated intelligence. The overall estimated enemy personnel losses are now over 956,810, with an additional 1340 in the past day. Daily losses are reported as 1340 personnel, 11 tanks, 24 armored fighting vehicles, 52 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 1 air defense system, 163 UAVs, and 129 vehicles and fuel tanks. The total count of certain equipment types (tanks, AFVs, artillery, air defense, UAVs, cruise missiles, special equipment) has been updated in the cumulative statistics. РБК-Україна reports that according to the State Emergency Service (DSNS), the number of injured in Kyiv due to the drone attack has increased to 11 people, including 2 children. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports on the situation in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, stating that overnight, Russian forces shelled Nikopol district with 40 Grad MLRS rounds, causing fires and damage to three enterprises, two apartment buildings, and two private houses. In the morning, enemy forces used FPV drones and artillery to attack the Marhanets and Pokrovsk communities. Shahed drones also attacked the oblast overnight, damaging a agricultural enterprise in the Dnipro district. In the evening, the enemy used UAVs against the Novopavlivka community in Synelnykove district, injuring two police officers. Three enemy drones were shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports that at least eight enemy KABs attacked the frontline city of Orikhiv, destroying residential buildings and injuring two people. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 provides a summary of enemy attacks on 10 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past day, including 10 aerial strikes on Malynivka, Temerivka, and Novodarivka, 256 drone attacks on Bilenke, Kamianske, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, and Novodarivka, 15 MLRS shellings on Kamianske, Huliaipole, Novodanylivka, and Novodarivka, and 216 artillery shellings on Kamianske, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, and Novodarivka. 26 reports of damaged apartments, private houses, and cars were received, with no civilian casualties reported in this summary. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that over the past night, 13 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs were destroyed by air defense, including 11 over Rostov Oblast, 1 over Belgorod Oblast, and 1 over Bryansk Oblast. This is also reported by TASS and Два майора. AV БогомаZ reports that a Ukrainian aircraft-type UAV was detected and destroyed by air defense over Bryansk Oblast overnight, with no reported casualties or damage. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that the threat of enemy strike UAVs has been cleared for all oblasts. Басурин о главном shares a historical note about Vladimir Monomakh entering Kyiv on May 4, 1113, and highlights his leadership and achievements, including uniting much of Rus' and pushing back nomadic threats. This is presented in the context of "DAY in HISTORY." Multiple images shared by РБК-Україна depict the aftermath of drone attacks in the Obolonskyi district of Kyiv, showing damage to a shopping center, residential buildings, and burnt cars, visually confirming the civilian impact. РБК-Україна and АSTRA confirm one person injured and multiple fires in Cherkasy due to the overnight drone attack, with damage to residential and commercial properties. РБК-Україна provides an overnight summary highlighting the drone attack on Kyiv (11 injured, 2 children, damage in 3 districts), the attack on Cherkasy (1 injured, fires), France's commitment to produce 1200 AASM Hammer smart bombs for Ukraine, and the planned visit of the head of the Pentagon to Israel before Trump's Middle East trip. Воин DV reports on successful artillery and FPV drone strikes by Russian forces on the Southern Donetsk direction, claiming the destruction of two M-198 howitzers, a pickup truck, eight "Baba Yaga" and ten quadcopter-type UAVs, and disrupting Ukrainian personnel landings and logistics near Voskresenka. STERNENKO shares a message calling for donations for the "extermination" of Russians. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on the death of Leo Åland, the son of a Finnish politician, who was fighting for Ukraine, claiming he wanted to return home and was killed by an FPV drone, with his body left on the battlefield, and the Finnish Foreign Ministry expressing concern about mercenaries being unable to terminate contracts. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of children in Mali preparing for Victory Day, framed as a cultural event and expressing desire to visit Russia. Fighterbomber, a Russian military blogger, expresses frustration with Ukrainian claims of a Russian Su-30 being shot down in Crimea, stating he found no evidence after checking the area and questioning the credibility of such reports. ТАСС reports that a Russian official stated that inflation in Russia could be reduced by increasing production and future cuts in state spending. Оперативний ЗСУ provides a summary of combat activity and enemy losses over the past day, reporting 253 combat engagements, including 113 on the Pokrovsk and 66 on the Novopavlivka directions, with extensive use of KABs (158 + 15 on Kursk), shelling (6384), and kamikaze drones (2760), and reporting Ukrainian forces hitting two command posts, five artillery systems, one EW station, seven areas of personnel and equipment concentration, two UAV control points, and one air defense system. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a battle map for the Pokrovsk direction, indicating 113 combat engagements and successful Ukrainian defense against Russian advances in multiple locations. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a battle map for the Novopavlivka direction, indicating 66 repelled Russian assaults in numerous settlements and directions. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a battle map for the Kursk direction, indicating 23 combat engagements with heavy enemy artillery and aerial activity. ТАСС reports that according to Russian security forces, Ukrainian 21st, 22nd, 61st, and 67th separate mechanized brigades in Sumy Oblast are suffering significant losses, and the 36th separate marine brigade has lost combat capability. ASTRA reports that the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, shared an image depicting Zelenskyy, drones, and a burning Red Square, with a caption suggesting this day was brought closer, framed within the context of Zelenskyy's earlier statement about not guaranteeing safety in Moscow on May 9th.

Major Updates from the Article:

Updated Russian Drone Activity and Trajectories: New reports from the Ukrainian Air Force provide updated information on the movement of enemy strike UAVs in Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts, with Nikolaevsky Vanek providing granular details on specific drones approaching Starokonstantiniv and Khmelnytskyi. The Ukrainian Air Force later reported that the threat of enemy strike UAVs has been cleared for all oblasts. Multiple images from РБК-Україна visually confirm the damage from drone attacks in the Obolonskyi district of Kyiv.
Increased Civilian Casualties in Kyiv: The number of injured in Kyiv due to the overnight drone attack has increased to 11 people, including 2 children, according to the State Emergency Service (DSNS). РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ visually confirm the aftermath of the Kyiv attack with photos and videos.
Russian Shelling and Drone Attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Russian forces shelled Nikopol district with 40 Grad MLRS rounds overnight, causing fires and damage to three enterprises, two apartment buildings, and two private houses. In the morning, enemy forces used FPV drones and artillery to attack the Marhanets and Pokrovsk communities. Shahed drones also attacked the oblast overnight, damaging a agricultural enterprise in the Dnipro district. In the evening, the enemy used UAVs against the Novopavlivka community in Synelnykove district, injuring two police officers. Three enemy drones were shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight.
Russian Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) Attack on Orikhiv: At least eight enemy KABs attacked the frontline city of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, destroying residential buildings and injuring two people.
Summary of Russian Attacks in Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Over the past day, Russian forces conducted 10 aerial strikes, 256 drone attacks, 15 MLRS shellings, and 216 artillery shellings on 10 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 26 reports of damaged apartments, private houses, and cars were received, with no civilian casualties reported in this summary.
Russian Claims of Ukrainian Drone Interceptions: Over the past night, Russian air defense claimed to have destroyed 13 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs, including 11 over Rostov Oblast, 1 over Belgorod Oblast, and 1 over Bryansk Oblast. AV БогомаZ also reported the destruction of an aircraft-type UAV over Bryansk Oblast overnight with no reported casualties or damage.
Corrected Ukrainian General Staff Enemy Loss Statistics: The Ukrainian General Staff reports corrected overall enemy losses since February 24, 2022, with adjustments to the numbers of tanks, armored combat vehicles, artillery systems, air defense systems, UAVs, cruise missiles, and special equipment due to updated intelligence. The overall estimated enemy personnel losses are now over 956,810, with an additional 1340 in the past day. Daily losses are reported as 1340 personnel, 11 tanks, 24 armored fighting vehicles, 52 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 1 air defense system, 163 UAVs, and 129 vehicles and fuel tanks. The total count of certain equipment types (tanks, AFVs, artillery, air defense, UAVs, cruise missiles, special equipment) has been updated in the cumulative statistics. Multiple reports from РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ confirm these updated statistics.
Russian Military Blogger Reports on Frontline Activity: Два майора provides a morning summary (May 4), reporting a drone attack repelled in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, consequences of Ukrainian strikes on Novorossiysk (casualties and damage), intensified Ukrainian drone strikes on civilian targets in Bryansk Oblast (casualties and damage), continued Russian drone strikes on Mirople in Sumy Oblast and advances near Loknya and Vodolagi, continued Ukrainian activity and Russian claims of repelling attacks in Belgorod Oblast (civilian casualties from shelling and drone attacks), confirmation from Ukrainian channels of Russian advances under Pokrovsk (Shevchenko village, fighting in Kotlyarka and Mirolyubovka), Russian claims of repelling counterattacks near Novoolenevka and developing success in Alexandropol and near Malinovka on the Konstantinovka direction, reports of fighting on the outskirts of Bogatyr on the Southern Donetsk direction (claimed advances and ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks), positional battles in the Zaporizhzhia direction (Shcherbaki, Stepovoe, Kamenskoe), Ukrainian strikes on Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast (damage and casualties), and continued Ukrainian shelling of Horlivka (casualty and damage).
Russian Military Blogger Claims Destruction of Ukrainian Hiding Place: Воин DV shares a video claiming that UAV operators of the "Vostok" grouping destroyed a Ukrainian hiding place near Bogatyr on the Southern Donetsk direction.
Russian Military Blogger Shares Ukrainian Trophy Photos: Colonelcassad shares photos claiming to show Ukrainian trophies on the Pokrovsk direction.
Ukrainian Drone Attack Casualties and Damage in Cherkasy: РБК-Україна reports one person injured in a drone attack on Cherkasy overnight with 5 fires reported at various addresses causing damage to residential apartments, a warehouse, a dacha, and dry vegetation. РБК-Україна and ASTRA visually confirm the damage and casualties in Cherkasy.
Ukrainian General Staff Provides Detailed Aftermath of Kyiv Attack: Оперативний ЗСУ shares additional photos and videos of the aftermath of the night attack on Kyiv, reporting 7 injured and detailing destruction and fires in Obolonskyi, Sviatoshynskyi, and Shevchenkivskyi districts, including specific damage to a 12-story building, cars, private houses, and infrastructure near a railway bridge. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports 11 injured, including 2 children, and details the damage in Obolonskyi, Shevchenkivskyi, and Sviatoshynskyi districts. Multiple images from РБК-Україна provide visual confirmation of the damage in Obolonskyi district.
Ukrainian Military Unit Combat Report: The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade shares a video reporting on their combat work from April 27 to May 3.
Russian Military Blogger Shares Historical Narrative: Басурин о главном shares a historical note about Vladimir Monomakh entering Kyiv on May 4, 1113, and highlights his leadership and achievements.
Updated Russian Naval Presence: The Ukrainian Navy and General Staff report the presence of one Russian warship capable of carrying up to 6 Kalibr missiles in the Black Sea, no ships in the Azov Sea, and three ships including one Kalibr carrier with up to 8 missiles in the Mediterranean Sea, along with Kerch Strait passage information.
Russian Internal Law Enforcement Report: Police in Khabarovsk Krai report on various law enforcement activities including theft, property damage, fire safety violations, fraud, and illegal labor.
Injuries in Russian Landslide: TASS reports that citizens of Kyrgyzstan were injured in a landslide in Gelendzhik.
France to Produce AASM Hammer Smart Bombs for Ukraine: РБК-Україна reports that France will produce 1200 AASM Hammer smart bombs for Ukraine, according to Le Parisien. This indicates continued Western military aid with advanced weaponry.
Head of Pentagon to Visit Israel Before Trump's Middle East Trip: РБК-Україна reports that according to Axios, the head of the Pentagon will visit Israel before US President Donald Trump's trip to the Middle East, indicating ongoing US diplomatic and security engagements in the region.
Russian Claims of Significant Losses for Ukrainian Brigades in Sumy Oblast: TASS, citing Russian security forces, claims that Ukrainian 21st, 22nd, 61st, and 67th separate mechanized brigades in Sumy Oblast are suffering significant losses, and the 36th separate marine brigade has lost combat capability.
Ukrainian Head of Presidential Office Shares Image Referencing Burning Red Square and May 9th: ASTRA reports that the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, shared an image depicting Zelenskyy, drones, and a burning Red Square, with a caption suggesting this day was brought closer, framed within the context of Zelenskyy's earlier statement about not guaranteeing safety in Moscow on May 9th. This is a significant information operation piece, potentially referencing Ukrainian deep strike capabilities and the symbolic importance of May 9th.
Russian Military Blogger Denies Ukrainian Claim of Su-30 Shot Down in Crimea: Fighterbomber, a Russian military blogger, denies Ukrainian claims of a Russian Su-30 being shot down in Crimea, expressing skepticism about the reports.
Russian Official Comments on Inflation: TASS reports a Russian official's statement on potential ways to reduce inflation in Russia.
Ukrainian General Staff Detailed Combat Report: Оперативний ЗСУ provides a detailed summary of combat activity over the past day, reporting a total of 253 combat engagements across all fronts. This includes specific numbers of engagements on the Pokrovsk (113) and Novopavlivka (66) directions, highlighting the intense fighting in these areas. The report also details the extensive use of KABs (158 + 15 on Kursk), shelling (6384), and kamikaze drones (2760) by Russian forces. Ukrainian forces are reported to have hit key enemy assets, including command posts, artillery, EW stations, personnel concentrations, UAV control points, and an air defense system.
Ukrainian General Staff Battle Maps: Оперативний ЗСУ shares battle maps providing visual context for the intense fighting on the Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Kursk directions, indicating the number of engagements and the areas of Russian activity and Ukrainian defense.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Pokrovsk Direction: Extremely high intensity with 113 combat engagements reported in the past day, according to the Ukrainian General Staff and Оперативний ЗСУ. Intense ground combat continues with Russian claims of advancing over 1 km near Krasnoarmeysk. Russian sources showcase claimed destruction of NATO equipment. Heavy fighting continues according to WarGonzo. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a battle map illustrating the numerous combat engagements and areas of Russian advances and Ukrainian defense. Colonelcassad shares photos of claimed Ukrainian trophies on this direction. Two Majors reports confirmed Ukrainian channel reports of Russian advances under Pokrovsk in the central and eastern parts of Shevchenko village and fighting in Kotlyarka and Mirolyubovka.
Novopavlivka Direction: Very high intensity with 66 repelled Russian assaults reported in the past day, according to the Ukrainian General Staff and Оперативний ЗСУ. Intense ground combat with Russian claims of advancing over 1 km and heavy engagements near Velyka Novosilka. ISW analysis indicates Russian advances. Detailed ISW maps show assessed Russian advances towards Bahatyr and south of Vilne Pole. Dva Mayora reports fighting on the outskirts of Bogatyr on the Southern Donetsk direction. Voindv claims destruction of a Ukrainian hiding place near Bogatyr. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a battle map illustrating the numerous repelled Russian assaults in multiple settlements and directions.
Lyman Direction: High activity with 16 Russian attacks in the past day reported by the Ukrainian General Staff. Russian forces continue focused offensive efforts. ISW analysis indicates Russian advances. Detailed ISW maps show significant fighting.
Toretsk Direction: 7 Russian attacks in the past day reported by the Ukrainian General Staff. Russian forces continue focused offensive efforts. Intense ground combat and combined Russian assaults reported according to previous updates. Ukrainian forces repelling attacks. Active combat near Kurakhove, with Russian light motorized rifle units advancing according to previous reports. Ukrainian Presidential Brigade showcasing effectiveness according to previous reports. Two Majors reports Russian claims of repelling counterattacks near Novoolenevka and developing success in Alexandropol and near Malinovka on the Konstantinovka direction.
Kursk Oblast (RU): High activity with 23 combat engagements in the past day, according to the Ukrainian General Staff and Оперативний ЗСУ. Heavy enemy artillery (256 shellings, including 10 MLRS) and aerial activity (7 strikes, 15 KABs) reported by the Ukrainian General Staff. Ukrainian forces are conducting operations and inflicting losses. Ongoing combat involving North Korean troops. Russia claims to have intercepted 1 Ukrainian UAV overnight. A Russian documentary about "Kursk Battle" is announced. Ukrainian territorial control estimated at 43.4 sq km, a decrease from March. ISW maps depict Russian field fortifications and assessed Russian advances north of Sumy. TASS reports that according to Russian security forces, Ukrainian 21st, 22nd, 61st, and 67th separate mechanized brigades in Sumy Oblast are suffering significant losses, and the 36th separate marine brigade has lost combat capability. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a battle map illustrating the combat engagements and heavy enemy activity.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Overnight shelling of Nikopol district with 40 Grad MLRS rounds, causing fires and damage. Morning FPV drone and artillery attacks on Marhanets and Pokrovsk communities. Overnight Shahed attack damaging an agricultural enterprise in Dnipro district. Evening UAV attack on Novopavlivka community injuring two police officers. Three enemy drones were shot down overnight.
Kharkiv Oblast: 5 combat engagements in the past day in the Vovchansk area reported by the Ukrainian General Staff. Six Russian attacks on the Kupyansk direction repelled by Ukrainian forces, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. Launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) confirmed on northeastern Kharkiv Oblast. ISW maps depict assessed Russian advances north of Sumy, relevant to the border region. Russian tactical aviation conducted airstrikes at Tsapivka, Velyki Prokhody, Dementiyivka, Odradne of Kharkiv region, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a battle map for the Kupyansk direction, indicating repelled Russian assaults.
Kyiv Oblast: Aftermath of night attacks with confirmed damage and a rising number of civilian medical appeals (now 11 injured, including 2 children). Fires from falling debris and damaged infrastructure reported in Obolonskyi, Sviatoshynskyi, and Shevchenkivskyi districts. Updated information on drone movement, with a threat from the southeast reported earlier. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) details the damage in Obolonskyi, Shevchenkivskyi, and Sviatoshynskyi districts. Multiple images from РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ visually confirm the aftermath and damage.
Chernihiv Oblast: New groups of Shaheds reported earlier. Russian tactical aviation conducted airstrikes at Mkhy of Chernihiv region, according to the Ukrainian General Staff.
Sumy Oblast: Launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) confirmed. ISW maps depict assessed Russian advances north of Sumy and fighting near Makivka. Dva Mayora reports continued Russian drone strikes on Mirople and claimed advances near Loknya and Vodolagi. Russian tactical aviation conducted airstrikes at Myropilsk, Krasnopillia, Chernatske of Sumy region, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. TASS reports that according to Russian security forces, Ukrainian 21st, 22nd, 61st, and 67th separate mechanized brigades in Sumy Oblast are suffering significant losses, and the 36th separate marine brigade has lost combat capability.
Poltava Oblast: New groups of Shaheds reported earlier.
Cherkasy Oblast: One person injured in a drone attack overnight with 5 fires causing damage to residential apartments, a warehouse, a dacha, and dry vegetation, according to РБК-Україна and ASTRA. Significant damage to two apartments in a 4-story dormitory.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: At least eight enemy KABs attacked Orikhiv, destroying residential buildings and injuring two people. Over the past day, 10 aerial strikes, 256 drone attacks, 15 MLRS shellings, and 216 artillery shellings on 10 settlements were reported, according to 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦. Russian tactical aviation conducted airstrikes at Temirivka, Novodarivka, Huliaipole, Malynivka, Novoandriivka of Zaporizhzhia region, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. Detailed ISW maps highlight significant fighting around Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka. Dva Mayora reports positional battles near Shcherbaki, Stepovoe, and Kamenskoe, and Ukrainian strikes on the Russian-occupied part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast causing damage and casualties.
Rostov Oblast (RU): Russian air defense claimed to have destroyed 11 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs overnight. A drone attack was repelled in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky.
Khmelnytskyi Oblast: Threat of strike UAVs from the east reported earlier, with specific drones approaching Starokonstantiniv and near Khmelnytskyi noted. The threat has been cleared.
Southern Donetsk Direction: Dva Mayora reports fighting on the outskirts of Bogatyr with claimed advances and ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks. Voindv claims destruction of a Ukrainian hiding place near Bogatyr. Воин DV reports on successful artillery and FPV drone strikes by Russian forces, claiming the destruction of two M-198 howitzers, a pickup truck, eight "Baba Yaga" and ten quadcopter-type UAVs, and disrupting Ukrainian personnel landings and logistics near Voskresenka.
Siversk Direction: 3 combat engagements in the past day reported by the Ukrainian General Staff. ISW analysis indicates Russian advances. Detailed ISW maps show significant fighting.
Kramatorsk Direction: 6 enemy attacks in the past day repelled by the Ukrainian General Staff.
Orikhiv Direction: 3 unsuccessful attacks by Russian forces in the past day near Novodanylivka, Novopokrovka, and Kamianske reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
Prydniprovka Direction: 1 unsuccessful enemy attempt to approach Ukrainian fortifications in the past day reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
Bryansk Oblast (RU): Russian air defense claimed to have destroyed 1 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAV overnight. AV Bogomaz also reports the destruction of an aircraft-type UAV overnight with no casualties or damage. Dva Mayora reports intensified Ukrainian drone strikes on civilian targets causing casualties and damage to infrastructure.
Novorossiysk (Krasnodar Krai, RU): Dva Mayora reports consequences of Ukrainian strikes here, including 95 damaged apartments, 5 injured civilians (including 2 children), and a Ukrainian unmanned boat with an R-73 shot down near here.
Horlivka (DNR, Russian-occupied Donetsk Oblast): Dva Mayora reports continued Ukrainian shelling here causing a casualty and damage to a gas pipeline.
Donetsk Oblast: Impacted by the overnight Russian aerial attack. KAB launches reported targeting the oblast in previous reporting. Russian tactical aviation conducted airstrikes at Shakhove, Novoekonomichne, Poltavka, Malynivka, Nova Poltavka, Hnativka, Pokrovsk, Novoserhiyivka, Udachne, Novopavlivka, Novopil of Donetsk region, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. Two Majors reports confirmation from Ukrainian channels of Russian advances under Pokrovsk and fighting in Kotlyarka and Mirolyubovka, and Russian claims of repelling counterattacks near Novoolenevka and developing success in Alexandropol and near Malinovka on the Konstantinovka direction.
Belgorod Oblast (RU): Russian air defense claimed to have destroyed 1 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAV overnight. Two Majors reports continued Ukrainian activity and Russian claims of repelling attacks in Belgorod Oblast with civilian casualties from shelling and drone attacks.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Continued, widespread, and dynamic Russian drone activity reported across multiple oblasts with updated and detailed trajectories provided earlier. The Ukrainian Air Force later reported that the threat of enemy strike UAVs has been cleared for all oblasts. Launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation on Sumy, northeastern Kharkiv, Donetsk, and now Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts have been confirmed. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 256 drone attacks on various settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past day. Russian air defense claimed to have destroyed 13 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs overnight, including 11 over Rostov, 1 over Belgorod, and 1 over Bryansk Oblasts. AV Bogomaz reports the destruction of an aircraft-type UAV over Bryansk Oblast overnight with no reported casualties or damage. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports FPV drone attacks on Marhanets and Pokrovsk communities, Shahed attacks on Dnipro district, and UAV attacks on Novopavlivka community in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with three drones shot down overnight. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Russian forces used 2760 kamikaze drones in the past day. Воин DV reports on successful Russian FPV drone strikes on the Southern Donetsk direction, claiming the destruction of eight "Baba Yaga" and ten quadcopter-type UAVs.
Russian Tactical Aviation: Launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) on Sumy, northeastern Kharkiv, Donetsk, and now Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts have been confirmed. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 10 aerial strikes on Malynivka, Temerivka, and Novodarivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past day. Russian tactical aviation conducted airstrikes at Mkhy of Chernihiv region; Myropilsk, Krasnopillia, Chernatske of Sumy region; Shevchenko Pershe, Zelene Pole, Novopil, Komyshuvakha of Donetsk region; Temirivka, Novodarivka, Huliaipole, Malynivka, Novoandriivka of Zaporizhzhia region; Tsapivka, Velyki Prokhody, Dementiyivka, Odradne of Kharkiv region; Shakhove, Novoekonomichne, Poltavka, Malynivka, Nova Poltavka, Hnativka, Pokrovsk, Novoserhiyivka, Udachne, Novopavlivka, Novopil of Donetsk region, and Hulyaypole, Mali Scherbaka, Novoandriyivka of Zaporizhzhia region, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. The Ukrainian General Staff reports Russian forces conducted 81 aerial strikes and used 158 guided bombs (plus 15 on Kursk region) in the past day.
Black Sea Reconnaissance: Continued enemy reconnaissance activity over the Black Sea reported.
Naval Presence: One Russian warship capable of carrying up to 6 Kalibr missiles in the Black Sea, no ships in the Azov Sea, and three ships including one Kalibr carrier with up to 8 missiles in the Mediterranean Sea reported as of 06:00 on May 4th.
Kerch Strait Traffic: Passage of 13 vessels to the Black Sea and 3 vessels to the Azov Sea reported in the last day.
Ukrainian Naval Activity: Dva Mayora reports that a Ukrainian unmanned boat with an R-73 surface-to-air missile was shot down near Novorossiysk two evenings prior.
Artillery and MLRS Activity: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports overnight shelling of Nikopol district with 40 Grad MLRS rounds, and morning artillery attacks on Marhanets and Pokrovsk communities in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 15 MLRS shellings and 216 artillery shellings on various settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past day. Dva Mayora reports continued Ukrainian shelling of Horlivka in the DNR. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Russian forces conducted 6384 shellings and 113 MLRS shellings in the past day. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a battle map for the Kursk direction indicating 256 artillery shellings, including 10 MLRS. Воин DV reports on successful Russian artillery strikes on the Southern Donetsk direction.

Diplomatic and Political Developments:

Russian Information Operations: Continued promotion of Russian military narratives and historical narratives, including highlighting claimed successes and criticizing Ukraine. Showcasing of Russian drones in a Victory Day parade training in Moscow. Reports on Victory Day payments in Moscow. Basurin o glavnom shares a historical note about Vladimir Monomakh entering Kyiv.
Peace Negotiations and Territorial Disputes: Reports suggest Kyiv may resume military aggression if a peace agreement does not include recognition of territories incorporated into Russia.
International Relations and Victory Day Attendance: TASS reports that the President of Cuba is traveling to Russia to participate in Victory Day celebrations, while the head of the Indian Ministry of Defense may not attend.
France to Produce AASM Hammer Smart Bombs for Ukraine: РБК-Україна reports France's commitment to produce 1200 AASM Hammer smart bombs for Ukraine.
Head of Pentagon to Visit Israel Before Trump's Middle East Trip: РБК-Україна reports on the planned visit of the head of the Pentagon to Israel before Trump's Middle East trip.
Ukrainian Head of Presidential Office Shares Image Referencing Burning Red Square and May 9th: ASTRA reports on Andriy Yermak sharing an image depicting Zelenskyy, drones, and a burning Red Square, framed within the context of May 9th. This is a notable piece of information warfare.

Internal Russian Issues:

Information Operations: Continued efforts to shape narratives and promote military capabilities and national events. Basurin o glavnom shares a historical note about Vladimir Monomakh.
Military Readiness and Propaganda: Showcasing of Russian drones in Victory Day parade training.
Security and Societal Control: Security forces conducting raids on bars in St. Petersburg and Yekaterinburg, checking documents, tattoos, and phones, and questioning individuals about their political views.
Localized Law Enforcement Activities: Police report on various law enforcement activities in Khabarovsk Krai. TASS reports injuries from a landslide in Gelendzhik.
Taxation and Legal Issues: Report on a videoblogger owing taxes.
Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Territory: Dva Mayora reports consequences of Ukrainian strikes on Novorossiysk, including casualties and damage. Intensified Ukrainian drone strikes on civilian targets in Bryansk Oblast causing casualties and damage to infrastructure. Russian air defense claimed to have destroyed 13 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over Rostov, Belgorod, and Bryansk Oblasts overnight.
Russian Official Comments on Inflation: TASS reports a Russian official's statement on potential ways to reduce inflation.

Support and Rehabilitation:

Ukrainian Psychological Support: General Staff reports on psychological support officers utilizing a therapy dog from the 5th Separate Heavy Mechanized Brigade.
Fundraising: STERNENKO shares a message calling for donations.

Other Information:

Humanitarian Situation: Continued civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure reported on both sides, including the increased number of injured in Kyiv (now 11), casualties and damage in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts (including Orikhiv), and reported casualties and damage in Novorossiysk and Bryansk Oblast. One person injured in a drone attack in Cherkasy. Multiple images from РБК-Україна visually confirm the civilian impact and damage in Kyiv and Cherkasy.
Ukrainian Military Unit Reporting: The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade shares a video report on their combat work from April 27 to May 3.
Historical Commemoration: Basurin o glavnom shares a historical note about Vladimir Monomakh entering Kyiv on May 4, 1113.
Updated Enemy Losses: The Ukrainian General Staff reports corrected overall enemy losses since February 24, 2022, with adjustments to numbers of tanks, armored combat vehicles, artillery systems, air defense systems, UAVs, cruise missiles, and special equipment due to updated intelligence. The overall estimated enemy personnel losses are now over 956,810, with an additional 1340 in the past day. Multiple reports from РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ confirm these updated statistics.
Report on Death of Finnish Foreign Fighter: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on the death of Leo Åland, the son of a Finnish politician, who was fighting for Ukraine, claiming he wanted to return home and was killed by an FPV drone. This highlights the presence and fate of foreign fighters.

Potential Future Developments

Continued High Probability of Russian Offensive Operations: The reports of intense fighting and claimed advances on key fronts indicate that Russian forces will maintain their offensive pressure. The very high number of combat engagements on the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions suggests these will remain primary areas of Russian effort.
Continued High Probability of Russian Aerial and Drone Attacks: The widespread nature of Russian aerial and drone activity, the confirmed use of guided aerial bombs, and the high number of reported kamikaze drone uses indicate a continued high tempo of attacks across various areas, with a significant risk to civilian infrastructure and casualties.
Continued Ukrainian Deep Strikes and Drone Operations: Ukrainian forces are likely to continue utilizing drones for deep strikes against Russian territory and assets, as evidenced by the claimed interceptions and the information operation piece from Andriy Yermak. Russian efforts to counter these will continue.
Increased Focus on Information Warfare around May 9th: The proximity to May 9th and the information operation by Andriy Yermak suggest an intensification of propaganda efforts around this symbolic date.
Potential for Increased Civilian Casualties: The reported civilian casualties on both sides underscore the ongoing and direct threat to civilians from continued aerial and drone attacks and shelling.
Continued Stalemate in Peace Negotiations: Fundamental disagreements over territorial control are likely to keep diplomatic efforts at a standstill.
Continued Information Warfare: Both sides will continue to utilize information operations to shape narratives and highlight successes, particularly in the lead-up to May 9th.
Increased Focus on Counter-Armor and Counter-Drone Tactics: The demonstrated effectiveness of FPV drones and the reported high number of UAV losses highlight the continued importance of these tactics and countermeasures. Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian UAVs and the Ukrainian focus on drone operations reinforce this.
Highlighting of Damage from Ukrainian Strikes: Russian sources will likely continue to highlight damage in Russia from Ukrainian strikes as part of their information operations.
Impact of Updated Enemy Loss Statistics: The corrected statistics from the Ukrainian General Staff will be used to highlight the cost of the conflict to Russia.
Continued Humanitarian Response: The rising number of casualties will necessitate continued and potentially increased humanitarian aid and support.
Continued Western Military Aid: France's commitment to producing smart bombs indicates continued provision of advanced weaponry to Ukraine.
Continued Diplomatic Engagements in the Middle East: The planned visit of the head of the Pentagon to Israel before Trump's trip indicates ongoing US security interests and activities in the Middle East, potentially influencing the broader geopolitical context.
Focus on Russian Claims of Ukrainian Losses in Sumy Oblast: Russian sources are likely to continue emphasizing claimed Ukrainian losses in Sumy Oblast as part of their information operations.
Contestation of Information: The denial by Russian military bloggers of Ukrainian claims, such as the Su-30 being shot down, highlights the ongoing contestation of information and the need for independent verification.
Continued Reporting on Foreign Fighter Involvement: The report on the death of a Finnish foreign fighter suggests that information regarding foreign nationals in the conflict will continue to emerge and may be used for propaganda.

Operational Summary

The operational situation remains characterized by sustained and intense ground combat on multiple fronts, with Russian forces continuing offensive actions and claiming advances while Ukrainian forces report repelling numerous assaults, particularly a very high number on the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions. The pervasive Russian aerial and drone campaign continues, resulting in civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure across Ukraine, including a significant increase in injured in Kyiv from overnight attacks and damage from shelling and drone attacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, including KAB strikes on Orikhiv. Ukrainian forces are continuing their effective drone operations, including strikes on Russian territory, although Russian sources contest some Ukrainian claims. Diplomatic discussions remain at an impasse due to fundamental disagreements on territorial control. Information operations continue to be a significant element of the conflict, with a notable piece from Andriy Yermak potentially referencing Ukrainian capabilities and the symbolic importance of May 9th. The Ukrainian General Staff has corrected overall enemy loss statistics, highlighting the significant cumulative cost of the conflict to Russia. New information reinforces the intensity of fighting, the continued and deadly nature of drone attacks on civilians, the ongoing information war, and the continued Ukrainian capability for deep strikes and naval drone activity. Claims regarding Ukrainian losses in Sumy Oblast and the death of a foreign fighter highlight other dimensions of the conflict. France's commitment to providing smart bombs indicates continued Western military support.

Potential Indicators

Observable changes in the frontline and territorial control on key axes, particularly Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Lyman, and Toretsk.
Further reports of drone attacks, their locations, and impact on civilian and military targets in Ukraine and Russia.
Further reports or visual evidence of Ukrainian drone and unmanned boat activity targeting Russian territory and Russian responses, including claimed interceptions or changes in air/naval tactics.
Continued reporting and analysis of the effectiveness of drone operations and counter-drone measures on both sides.
Statements and actions from both sides regarding potential peace negotiations, including any response to Ukraine's proposed 30-day ceasefire.
Increased or shifted focus in information operations from either side, particularly around May 9th, including new propaganda themes or significant media campaigns.
Any observable changes in the scale or nature of Russian aerial and drone attacks or Ukrainian deep strikes.
Reports of any further civilian casualties or damage from military actions on either side.
Further details and assessment of damage in areas impacted by strikes, including the aftermath in Kyiv and Cherkasy.
Reports on military aid deliveries to Ukraine, particularly the arrival or impact of advanced weaponry like the AASM Hammer bombs.
Further information or independent verification regarding Russian claims of significant Ukrainian losses in Sumy Oblast or other areas.
Continued reporting and discussion on the presence and activities of foreign fighters in the conflict.
Any observable reactions or counter-narratives to information operations, such as the image shared by Andriy Yermak or the claims about the Su-30.
Changes in diplomatic activity or statements regarding the conflict, particularly from the US, France, or other international actors.
Observable changes in military activity along the Ukrainian-Russian border, including the Kursk direction.

Situation Report