Sitrep 2025-05-04 03:49:04

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 4, 2025, 03:48 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational tempo remains exceptionally high, dominated by intense ground combat on multiple axes, particularly the Pokrovsk, Novopavlivsk, Toretsk (Konstantinovka), Lyman, and Krasnolimansk directions. Russian forces continue offensive operations, reporting claimed advances and heavy engagements in these areas, specifically highlighting claimed tactical gains in Novoalexandrovka and near Shevchenko on the Pokrovsk direction, and near Velyka Novosilka and on the Aleksandro-Kalinovo direction. Recent analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), shared by РБК-Україна, indicates Russian advances near Lyman, Siversk, Novopavlivka, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces report repelling a high number of assaults across numerous fronts and inflicting significant enemy losses, with ISW maps showing Ukrainian counterattacks in a number of areas. Russian sources are disseminating claimed visual evidence of Ukrainian casualties in border regions, specifically near Guyevo in Kursk Oblast, alongside propaganda encouraging surrender. The conflict is also characterized by persistent, widespread, and evolving Russian aerial and drone activity across widespread areas of Ukraine. Recent reports confirm launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation targeting Sumy Oblast, northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, and now Donetsk Oblast, with a new report from the Ukrainian Air Force confirming launches targeting Kherson Oblast. Ongoing "Shahed" drone activity is impacting various regions, including recent and current threats to Kyiv, Cherkasy, Dnipro, Mirhorod, Sloviansk, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, potentially Vinnytsia, and now northeastern Vinnytsia Oblast and southeastern Zhytomyr Oblast, with air raid alerts active in some of these areas, including a new threat of strike UAVs for Khmelnytskyi Oblast from the east reported by the Ukrainian Air Force. Specifically, a new warning has been issued for Vinnytsia regarding an approaching strike UAV from the north, and for southeastern Zhytomyr Oblast. Recent detailed reporting provides an updated picture of remaining Russian drone activity across various oblasts, including movements towards Zhytomyr Oblast, Fastiv, Vasylkiv, Kremenchuk district, eastern Kyiv Oblast, and the Konotop area. Video evidence is emerging from Kyiv showing impacts on multi-story buildings and fires, with new photos from the State Emergency Service showing firefighters extinguishing fires in apartments and burned cars in Obolonskyi, Sviatoshynskyi, and Shevchenkivskyi districts. The aftermath of the night attacks in Kyiv is being assessed, with confirmed damage and fires from falling debris and a rising number of civilian medical appeals, now totaling 4 injured, all receiving aid on the spot, with previous reports from the DSNS indicating a total of 7 injured, including 2 children. Simultaneously, Ukrainian forces are conducting effective deep strikes against Russian targets, with confirmed drone interceptions over Belgorod and Murmansk Oblasts, and reports of successful FPV drone strikes against Russian logistics and personnel, including a claimed drone destroyed over Kamensk-Shakhtinsky in Rostov Oblast, reported by TASS. Russia is claiming successful counter-drone and counter-artillery operations, including the claimed elimination of nine Ukrainian soldiers in Gornal, Kursk Oblast, by a marine of the "Sever" grouping. A Russian military blogger, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, reports continued enemy reconnaissance activity over the Black Sea, sharing an image from Flightradar24 showing a Saab 340B ISR aircraft over Bulgaria and near Istanbul. The Black Sea remains a contested area, with Russian military bloggers discussing potential renewed Ukrainian drone activity, expressing concern about the Black Sea Fleet's reduced combat capability, and raising the specter of a potential large-scale attack on the Crimean Bridge. Information operations continue to be a significant element, with both sides leveraging narratives around military successes, casualties, and future aid. Diplomatic activity continues, with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announcing upcoming sanctions against entities assisting Russia in circumventing existing sanctions and reiterating Ukraine's readiness for a ceasefire under specific conditions, while facing continued diplomatic friction with Hungary and potential political changes in Slovakia and Serbia regarding attendance at Victory Day events in Moscow. Discussions regarding potential peace negotiations and the role of international actors are also ongoing, with new reports from US media highlighting difficulties in the implementation of the US-Ukraine mineral resources deal, and a report from the Financial Times suggesting Kyiv may resume military aggression if a peace agreement does not include recognition of territories incorporated into Russia. The humanitarian impact of the conflict remains severe, with continued civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure reported on both sides, currently evidenced by damage and fires from falling drone debris and civilian medical appeals in Kyiv and Cherkasy, the extensive destruction of Toretsk, and a significant increase in the number of injured in the Russian drone attack on Zaporizhzhia. Fundraising efforts for military units are actively being promoted by both Ukrainian and Russian military bloggers, highlighting ongoing logistical needs and reliance on public support. Internal Russian issues, including military welfare and potential dissent, are also being discussed in open source channels, including a reported confusing situation on the Volga River, legal proceedings initiated by the Russian Ministry of Defense against a major state-owned enterprise, and security forces conducting raids on bars in St. Petersburg and Yekaterinburg, checking documents, tattoos, and phones, and questioning individuals about their political views and attitudes towards the "SVO." TASS reports that videoblogger Amiran Sardarov owes almost half a million rubles to the Federal Tax Service, according to law enforcement sources. Ukraine is facing potential challenges with electricity generation this summer, with potential evening deficits. Commemorative events related to Victory Day are being held, including in Washington, D.C. Russian military bloggers are showcasing images and videos of Russian drones participating in a Victory Day parade training in Moscow, including Orlans, Iks, and Geraniums, likely as part of information operations. A new report from the police in Khabarovsk Krai details various law enforcement activities in that far eastern region of Russia, including theft, property damage, violations of fire safety regulations, fraud, and illegal labor activities by migrants, providing a glimpse into localized internal Russian issues. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming that snipers of the 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, "Vostok" grouping, neutralized enemy personnel in a forest belt on the Southern Donetsk direction, as reported by the military blogger "Воин DV". This suggests ongoing Russian small arms engagements and claims of success on the Southern Donetsk direction. РБК-Україна, citing ISW maps, reports assessed Russian advances near Lyman, Siversk, Novopavlivka, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka, and Ukrainian counterattacks in a number of areas. These maps further corroborate the intense fighting on these fronts and indicate areas of contested control. Specific ISW maps provided by РБК-Україна show assessed Russian advances north of Sumy Oblast, extending into Ukraine, and Russian field fortifications in Kursk Oblast, as well as significant fighting near Makivka. These maps provide visual confirmation of the operational situation in the border regions and highlight a specific area of recent intense combat. ISW maps also detail assessed Russian advances and significant fighting in the Pokrovsk direction, Novopavlivka direction (specifically detailing advances towards Bahatyr and along a highway south of Vilne Pole), Svatove-Kreminna direction (with geolocated footage confirming advances west of Makiivka and north of Torske), Kherson direction (showing assessed advances and Ukrainian counteroffensives), and Zaporizhzhia direction (highlighting significant fighting around Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka). These detailed maps from ISW provide a comprehensive overview of the most active fronts, highlighting areas of Russian gains, Ukrainian resistance, and intense combat, supported by specific geolocated intelligence where available.

Key updates and analysis:

Escalation of Russian Aerial Attacks: The operational picture is increasingly dominated by intense and widespread Russian aerial activity. The latest reports confirm continued, extensive, and dynamic Russian drone activity across multiple Ukrainian oblasts. New warnings have been issued for Vinnytsia regarding an approaching strike UAV from the north, and for southeastern Zhytomyr Oblast. Detailed breakdowns of Shahed movements are provided for northern Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr (approaching), Fastiv (towards/through), Kyiv Oblast (transferring to Zhytomyr and eastern Kyiv), and Konotop (towards/through). This granular detail underscores the complexity and scale of the current aerial threat and highlights numerous potential targets and transit routes. The Ukrainian Air Force issued a specific warning for Vinnytsia regarding an approaching strike UAV from the north. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force provides refined courses for drones in northwestern Sumy, northeastern Cherkasy, western Kyiv, northeastern Vinnytsia, and southeastern Zhytomyr Oblasts, with varying courses. This indicates continuous adaptation and tracking of Russian drone tactics and directions. Launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting Sumy Oblast, northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, and now Donetsk Oblast by Russian tactical aviation have been confirmed. This indicates a continued focus on air-launched guided munitions on these fronts. A significant new development is the report from the Ukrainian Air Force confirming launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation targeting Kherson Oblast. This expands the area under threat from this type of munition. New detailed reporting provides an updated picture of remaining Russian drone activity, including activity south of Bila Tserkva transferring to Zhytomyr Oblast, towards/through Fastiv, past Boryspil towards Vasylkiv, in northern Poltava Oblast, towards Kremenchuk district, circulating in eastern Kyiv Oblast, and south of Chernihiv heading west. This further refined picture highlights specific lingering aerial threats and their potential destinations. The Ukrainian Air Force also reports a new threat of strike UAVs for Khmelnytskyi Oblast from the east. This indicates an expansion of the targeted areas for Russian drone attacks.
Humanitarian Impact and Casualties in Kyiv: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video evidence of impacts on a multi-story building in Kyiv, with the upper floors on fire, confirming direct hits on residential areas. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a photo confirming that the fire on the 12th floor of a residential building in Obolonskyi district, caused by "Shahed" attacks, has been extinguished. This provides confirmation of the successful response by emergency services. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that four residents of Kyiv have sought medical assistance, three in Sviatoshynskyi district and one in Obolonskyi district, and all received aid on the spot, citing Mayor Klitschko. This confirms the direct human cost of the aerial attacks in the capital. ASTRA shares videos and photos highlighting the aftermath of the night attacks in Kyiv, confirming that four people have sought medical assistance, three in Sviatoshynskyi district and one in Obolonskyi district, all receiving aid on the spot, as reported by Mayor Klitschko. The visuals, which local sources claim include burning cars, shopping centers, and residential buildings, underscore the significant civilian impact and damage caused by falling debris despite air defense efforts. The initial reports of two injured children in Obolonskyi district are further confirmed by РБК-Україна, citing the head of KMVA. КМВА reports that three women in Sviatoshynskyi district sought medical assistance for an acute stress reaction, receiving aid on the spot. РБК-Україна echoes this report. РБК-Україна provides an updated total of four residents in Kyiv seeking medical assistance due to the drone attack. This confirms the direct human cost of the aerial attacks in the capital. ASTRA's videos and photos from Kyiv visually confirm the damage and fires resulting from the attacks, showing destroyed vehicles and damaged buildings, including views from affected residential areas. New photos from the State Emergency Service (DSNS) in Kyiv, shared by РБК-Україна, show firefighters extinguishing fires, including in apartments and a row of burned cars, in Obolonskyi, Sviatoshynskyi, and Shevchenkivskyi districts. These photos confirm the damage to residential buildings and vehicles and the active response of emergency services. The DSNS also reports that a total of 7 people were injured, including 2 children, which is an increase from previous reports. This further highlights the significant human cost of the attacks. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares videos and text regarding the attack on Kyiv, stating that there are impacts in Kyiv and Cherkasy, with residential areas affected due to air defense work, and reporting falling debris and a burning car in various districts. They also cite reports of around 70 UAVs in the air and more incoming. This Russian source confirms the attack on Kyiv and Cherkasy and the impact on civilian areas, attributing some damage to air defense activity and reiterating the scale of the attack, aligning with and adding to the Ukrainian reports.
Internal Russian Security and Societal Control: ASTRA reports on security forces conducting raids on bars in St. Petersburg and Yekaterinburg, checking documents, tattoos, and phones, and questioning individuals about their political views and attitudes towards the "SVO" (Special Military Operation). This indicates an ongoing effort by Russian authorities to monitor and control potential dissent, particularly among younger generations, and suggests a focus on identifying individuals with perceived "left-radical" views or negative attitudes towards the conflict. The actions taken during these raids, including checking tattoos and private communications, highlight the extent of surveillance and control. A new report from the police in Khabarovsk Krai, a far eastern region of Russia, details various law enforcement activities including theft, property damage, violations of fire safety regulations, fraud, and illegal labor activities by migrants. This provides a localized glimpse into internal Russian issues and law enforcement priorities outside of the immediate conflict zone, highlighting concerns about crime and immigration even far from the front lines. TASS reports that videoblogger Amiran Sardarov owes almost half a million rubles to the Federal Tax Service, according to law enforcement sources. While seemingly a minor item, this points to the Russian state's focus on tax collection and potential legal issues faced by individuals within Russia.
Diplomatic Positioning and Future Conflict Potential: TASS reports that the Financial Times suggests Kyiv may resume military aggression against Russia if a peace agreement does not include the recognition of territories incorporated into the Russian Federation, especially Crimea. This report from a Russian state-owned news agency, citing Western media, is likely intended to frame Ukraine's position on territorial integrity as a potential threat to future peace and to highlight the fundamental disagreement over occupied territories. It serves to reinforce Russia's narrative regarding the necessity of recognizing the current territorial status quo.
Russian Claims of Success in Border Regions: Colonelcassad shares photos showing claimed dead Ukrainian soldiers on the outskirts of Guyevo in Kursk Oblast, presented as evidence of successful Russian "mopping up" operations and accompanied by propaganda encouraging surrender. The photos are labeled 18+, indicating graphic content, and are attributed to the 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 44th Army Corps. This is a clear information operation aimed at showcasing claimed Russian military effectiveness in border regions and demoralizing Ukrainian forces. TASS reports that a marine of the "Sever" grouping eliminated nine Ukrainian soldiers with small arms fire during fighting for Gornal. This is a specific Russian claim of successful combat engagement in a border region.
Operational Situation from ISW: РБК-Україна shares analysis and maps from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), indicating Russian advances near Lyman, Siversk, Novopavlivka, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka, and Ukrainian counterattacks in a number of areas. This independent assessment confirms ongoing Russian offensive efforts and highlights specific areas of claimed gains and Ukrainian resistance across multiple fronts. The ISW maps also depict assessed Russian advances north of Sumy Oblast, extending into Ukraine, and Russian field fortifications in Kursk Oblast. This provides a visual representation of the operational situation in the border region and Russia's defensive preparations. The map also indicates significant fighting near Makivka. Additional detailed ISW maps provided by РБК-Україна offer a granular view of the Pokrovsk direction, highlighting assessed Russian advances and areas of intense fighting, including a reported advance to the eastern outskirts of Kotlyarivka. In the Novopavlivka direction, the maps detail assessed Russian advances and significant fighting, including specific reported movements towards Bahatyr and along a highway south of Vilne Pole. In the Svatove-Kreminna direction, geolocated footage confirms Russian advances west of Makiivka and north of Torske. On the Kherson direction, the maps indicate assessed Russian advances and areas of claimed Ukrainian counteroffensives. In the Zaporizhzhia direction, significant fighting is highlighted around Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka. These detailed maps from ISW provide a comprehensive overview of the most active fronts, highlighting areas of Russian gains, Ukrainian resistance, and intense combat, supported by specific geolocated intelligence where available.
Reconnaissance over the Black Sea: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports continued enemy reconnaissance activity over the Black Sea, sharing a Flightradar24 image showing a Saab 340B ISR aircraft over Bulgaria and near Istanbul. This indicates ongoing intelligence gathering efforts by unknown actors over the Black Sea region, likely in support of or monitoring the ongoing conflict.
Russian Claims of Sniper Activity: Colonelcassad shares a video claiming that snipers of the 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, "Vostok" grouping, neutralized enemy personnel in a forest belt on the Southern Donetsk direction. This suggests ongoing small arms engagements and claims of tactical successes by Russian forces in specific areas.
Kherson Oblast Targeted by Guided Aerial Bombs: The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation targeting Kherson Oblast. This indicates an immediate and significant threat to this region from air-launched guided munitions.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Ukrainian Air Force issues a specific warning for Dnipro regarding approaching strike UAVs from the southeast. Николаевский Ванёк reports two drones flying towards or through Dnipro/Samara and one drone from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast курсом на/через Доброполье. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAVs on the southeastern part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, course east/southeast. ([Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк)
Kharkiv Oblast: Николаевский Ванёк reports four drones in the area of Lozova and two north of Kharkiv, course towards Chuhuiv. 3 Shaheds from Kharkiv Oblast are transferring to Donetsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on the northwestern part of Kharkiv Oblast, course southeast. Николаевский Ванёк reports one drone under Lozova and one north of Kharkiv towards Chuhuiv. Launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation on northeastern Kharkiv Oblast have been confirmed. ISW maps depict assessed Russian advances north of Sumy Oblast, extending into Ukraine, which are also relevant to the border region of Kharkiv Oblast. (Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна])
Donetsk Oblast: Николаевский Ванёк reports five drones курсом на/через Доброполье and three north of Доброполье. One drone is reported in the area of Zlatopil. 3 Shaheds from Kharkiv Oblast are transferring to Donetsk Oblast. One drone is reported курсом на/через Купянск. One drone is reported approaching Sloviansk, one approaching Kramatorsk/Druzhkivka, and three in the area of Dobropillya. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on the western part of Donetsk Oblast, course east. Нові групи ударних БпЛА з Донеччини курсом на Дніпропетровщину. Warnings have been issued for Sloviansk regarding approaching strike UAVs. Николаевский Ванёк reports four drones in the Kupiansk area, course towards/through Sloviansk. New detailed reporting indicates a drone approaching Dobropillya from the north. Launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast have been confirmed. ISW analysis indicates Russian advances near Novopavlivka, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka. Detailed ISW maps show assessed Russian advances and significant fighting in the Pokrovsk direction (including a reported advance to the eastern outskirts of Kotlyarivka), and the Novopavlivka direction (detailing advances towards Bahatyr and south of Vilne Pole). Colonelcassad shares a video claiming sniper activity on the Southern Donetsk direction. (Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad])
Kyiv Oblast: Николаевский Ванёк reports four drones in the area of Kaniv, flying towards Kyiv Oblast, one drone from Chernihiv Oblast transferred to Kyiv Oblast, and four drones on the north of Poltava Oblast, flying towards Kyiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provides updated information on drone movements. ASTRA shares videos and photos highlighting the aftermath of the night attacks in Kyiv, confirming damage and civilian medical appeals. Нові фото від ДСНС Києва, shared by РБК-Україна, show firefighters extinguishing fires in apartments and burned cars in Obolonskyi, Sviatoshynskyi, and Shevchenkivskyi districts. ДСНС reports a total of 7 injured, including 2 children. Николаевский Ванёк reports three drones in Bila Tserkva district. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares videos and text regarding the attack on Kyiv, confirming impacts and damage. New detailed reporting indicates three drones circulating in the Bila Tserkva district, three drones in the Pereyaslav area, and three drones from Chernihiv Oblast flying towards Kyiv Oblast. The latest update from the Ukrainian Air Force indicates drone activity on the east, south, and north of Kyiv Oblast, with a warning of a strike UAV approaching Kyiv from the southeast. РБК-Україна confirms the movement of enemy UAVs towards Kyiv from the southeast. Recent reports on remaining drones specify activity south of Bila Tserkva transferring to Zhytomyr Oblast, towards/through Fastiv, past Boryspil towards Vasylkiv, circulating in eastern Kyiv Oblast, and from northern Kyiv Oblast transferring to Zhytomyr Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video evidence of impacts on a multi-story building in Kyiv and photos confirming the fire on the 12th floor of a residential building in Obolonskyi district has been extinguished. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports four residents of Kyiv have sought medical assistance, receiving aid on the spot, citing Mayor Klitschko. Николаевский Ванёк reports one drone курсом на/через Фастов, two with Киевской области перелетают в Житомирскую, and one on the east of Kyiv Oblast. (Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], ASTRA, РБК-Україна, ДСНС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS])
Chernihiv Oblast: Николаевский Ванёк reports 14 Shaheds from Sumy Oblast are transferring to Chernihiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on the eastern part of Chernihiv Oblast, course west/southwest. Нові групи ударних БпЛА через Сумщину курсом на Чернігівщину та Полтавщину. An air raid alert has been issued for Chernihiv due to approaching UAVs from the north and east. Николаевский Ванёк reports one drone north of Chernihiv heading west and one drone approaching Chernihiv. New detailed reporting indicates three drones from Chernihiv Oblast flying towards Kyiv Oblast, and three drones south of Konotop, and one drone west of Konotop heading west. The latest update from the Ukrainian Air Force indicates drone activity in the central part of Chernihiv Oblast, course southwest. Recent reports on remaining drones specify activity south of Chernihiv heading west. (Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Sumy Oblast: Николаевский Ванёк reports eight Shaheds from Sumy Oblast are transferring to Poltava Oblast and 14 from Sumy Oblast are transferring to Chernihiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV in the central part and on the west of Sumy Oblast, course west/southwest. Нові групи ударних БпЛА через Сумщину курсом на Чернігівщину та Полтавщину. Launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast have been confirmed. Николаевский Ванёк reports three drones in the Konotop area heading west and three drones near Romny. New detailed reporting indicates three drones south of Konotop and one drone west of Konotop heading west, and three drones near Romny. The latest update from the Ukrainian Air Force indicates drone activity on the northwestern part of Sumy Oblast, course southwest. Николаевский Ванёк reports one drone курсом на/через Конотоп. ISW maps depict assessed Russian advances north of Sumy Oblast, extending into Ukraine. ISW maps also show significant fighting near Makivka. (Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна])
Poltava Oblast: Николаевский Ванёк reports eight Shaheds from Sumy Oblast are transferring to Poltava Oblast and four on the north of Poltava Oblast, flying towards Kyiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on the north of Poltava Oblast, course west. Нові групи ударних БпЛА через Сумщину курсом на Чернігівщину та Полтавщину. Warnings have been issued for Mirhorod regarding approaching strike UAVs. Николаевский Ванёк reports three drones near Romny. New detailed reporting indicates five drones transferring from Poltava to Cherkasy Oblast. The latest update from the Ukrainian Air Force indicates drone activity on the north of Poltava Oblast, course southwest. Recent reports on remaining drones specify activity in northern Poltava Oblast and towards Kremenchuk district. (Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Cherkasy Oblast: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on the northeastern part of Cherkasy Oblast, course west/northwest. Николаевский Ванёк reports 13 drones from the Pryluky area are transferring to Cherkasy Oblast. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares videos and text regarding the attack on Cherkasy. New detailed reporting indicates five drones transferring from Poltava to Cherkasy Oblast. The latest update from the Ukrainian Air Force indicates drone activity on the east and north of Cherkasy Oblast, with varying courses. The latest update from the Ukrainian Air Force indicates drone activity on the northeastern part of Cherkasy Oblast, course south. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Николаевский Ванёк, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны])
Lozova (Kharkiv Oblast): Николаевский Ванёк reports four drones in this area and one drone under Lozova. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Dobropillya Area (Donetsk Oblast): Николаевский Ванёк reports five drones курсом на/через Доброполье and three north of Доброполье. Николаевский Ванёк also reports three drones in the area of Dobropillya and one drone from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast курсом на/через Доброполье. New detailed reporting indicates a drone approaching Dobropillya from the north. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Zlatopil Area (Donetsk Oblast): Николаевский Ванёк reports one drone in this area. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Chuhuiv Area (Kharkiv Oblast): Николаевский Ванёк reports two drones north of Kharkiv, course towards Chuhuiv and one drone north of Kharkiv towards Chuhuiv. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Kupiansk Area (Kharkiv Oblast): Николаевский Ванёк reports one drone курсом на/через Купянск and four drones in the Kupiansk area, course towards/through Sloviansk. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Kaniv Area (Cherkasy Oblast): Николаевский Ванёк reports four drones in this area, flying towards Kyiv Oblast. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Sinelnikovo Area (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Николаевский Ванёк reports two drones flying through this area курсом на/через Днепр/Самар. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Samara Area (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Николаевский Ванёк reports two drones flying towards or through this area. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Sloviansk Area (Donetsk Oblast): Николаевский Ванёк reports one drone approaching this area and four drones in the Kupiansk area, course towards/through Sloviansk. Warnings have been issued for Sloviansk regarding approaching strike UAVs. (Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Kramatorsk/Druzhkivka Area (Donetsk Oblast): Николаевский Ванёк reports one drone approaching this area. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Dzerzhinsk Direction (Donetsk Oblast): Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of Ukrainian artillery in Dyliivka on this front using FPV drones and artillery. (Colonelcassad)
Dyliivka (Donetsk Oblast): Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of a mortar and artillery piece here using FPV drones and artillery, and the destruction of an enemy transport with personnel using an ATGM. (Colonelcassad)
Kursk Oblast (RU): Colonelcassad shares a video, presented as evidence from a Russian International Public Tribunal, claiming "atrocities" by the "Kyiv regime" in Kursk Oblast, featuring a resident's testimony alleging torture and murder of a Russian soldier, arson, looting, and threats by "Azov" fighters in 1-e Novospasskoye. This indicates an active Russian information operation focusing on this region. Colonelcassad shares photos showing claimed dead Ukrainian soldiers on the outskirts of Guyevo, presented as evidence of successful Russian "mopping up" operations. TASS reports that a marine of the "Sever" grouping eliminated nine Ukrainian soldiers with small arms fire during fighting for Gornal. ISW maps depict Russian field fortifications in Kursk Oblast and assessed Russian advances north of Sumy Oblast, which are also relevant to the border region of Kursk Oblast. (Colonelcassad, TASS, РБК-Україна)
Mirhorod (Poltava Oblast): Warnings have been issued for Mirhorod regarding approaching strike UAVs. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Konotop Area (Sumy Oblast): Николаевский Ванёк reports three drones in this area heading west. New detailed reporting indicates three drones south of Konotop and one drone west of Konotop heading west. Николаевский Ванёк reports one drone курсом на/через Конотоп. Recent reports on remaining drones specify activity in the Konotop area. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Romny Area (Sumy Oblast): Николаевский Ванёк reports three drones near Romny. New detailed reporting indicates three drones near Romny. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Bila Tserkva District (Kyiv Oblast): Николаевский Ванёк reports three drones in this district. New detailed reporting indicates three drones circulating in the Bila Tserkva district. Recent reports on remaining drones specify activity south of Bila Tserkva transferring to Zhytomyr Oblast. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Pryluky Area (Chernihiv Oblast): Николаевский Ванёк reports 13 drones from this area are transferring to Cherkasy Oblast. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Pereyaslav Area (Kyiv Oblast): New detailed reporting indicates three drones in the Pereyaslav area. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Vinnytsia Oblast: The latest update from the Ukrainian Air Force indicates drone activity on the northeastern part of Vinnytsia Oblast, course northwest. The Ukrainian Air Force issues a specific warning for Vinnytsia regarding an approaching strike UAV from the north. РБК-Україна reports a strike UAV moving towards Vinnytsia from the north. Николаевский Ванёк reports five drones north of Vinnytsia, course west. Recent reports on remaining drones specify activity in northeastern Vinnytsia Oblast. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк)
Moscow (Russia): Colonelcassad is sharing images and videos of Russian drones participating in a Victory Day parade training. (Colonelcassad)
Fastiv Area (Kyiv Oblast): Recent reports on remaining drones specify two drones towards/through this area. Николаевский Ванёк reports one drone курсом на/через Фастов. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Boryspil Area (Kyiv Oblast): Recent reports on remaining drones specify one drone past this area towards Vasylkiv. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Vasylkiv Area (Kyiv Oblast): Recent reports on remaining drones specify one drone past Boryspil towards this area. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Kremenchuk District (Poltava Oblast): Recent reports on remaining drones specify one drone flying towards this area. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Eastern Kyiv Oblast: Recent reports on remaining drones specify one drone circulating in this area. Николаевский Ванёк reports one on the east of Kyiv Oblast. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Zhytomyr Oblast: Recent reports on remaining drones specify three drones from Bila Tserkva district transferring to this oblast and one drone from northern Kyiv Oblast transferring to this oblast. The latest update from the Ukrainian Air Force indicates drone activity on the southeastern part of Zhytomyr Oblast, course west/northwest. Николаевский Ванёк reports two drones approaching Zhytomyr and two from Kyiv Oblast transferring to Zhytomyr Oblast. (Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
St. Petersburg (Russia): ASTRA reports on security forces conducting raids on bars here. (ASTRA)
Yekaterinburg (Russia): ASTRA reports on security forces conducting raids on bars here. (ASTRA)
Guyevo (Kursk Oblast, RU): Colonelcassad shares photos showing claimed dead Ukrainian soldiers on the outskirts of this settlement. (Colonelcassad)
Gornal (Kursk Oblast, RU): TASS reports that a marine of the "Sever" grouping eliminated nine Ukrainian soldiers with small arms fire during fighting for this settlement. (TASS)
Lyman Direction: ISW analysis indicates Russian advances near this location. Detailed ISW maps show significant fighting on this front. (РБК-Україна)
Siversk Direction: ISW analysis indicates Russian advances near this location. Detailed ISW maps show significant fighting on this front. (РБК-Україна)
Novopavlivka Direction: ISW analysis indicates Russian advances near this location. Detailed ISW maps show assessed Russian advances and significant fighting, detailing advances towards Bahatyr and south of Vilne Pole. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming sniper activity on the Southern Donetsk direction, which is related. (РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad)
Kurakhove Direction: ISW analysis indicates Russian advances near this location. Detailed ISW maps show significant fighting on this front. (РБК-Україна)
Velyka Novosilka Direction: ISW analysis indicates Russian advances near this location. Detailed ISW maps show assessed Russian advances and significant fighting, specifically detailing a reported Russian advance south of Vilne Pole along highway C050440. (РБК-Україна)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation targeting this oblast. Air raid alert is active in communities of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, except the city of Zaporizhzhia. Detailed ISW maps highlight significant fighting around Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, РБК-Україна)
Rostov Oblast (RU): TASS reports a UAV was destroyed in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky. (ТАСС)
Khmelnytskyi Oblast: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of strike UAVs from the east. Николаевский Ванёк reports 3 drones transferring from Vinnytsia Oblast to Khmelnytskyi. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Николаевский Ванёк)
Makivka (near Sumy, Ukraine): ISW maps indicate significant fighting in the past 24 hours near this location. (РБК-Україна)
Pokrovsk Direction: Detailed ISW maps show assessed Russian advances and significant fighting on this front, including a reported advance to the eastern outskirts of Kotlyarivka. (РБК-Україна)
Svatove-Kreminna Direction: Detailed ISW maps show assessed Russian advances and significant fighting on this front, with geolocated footage confirming advances west of Makiivka and north of Torske. (РБК-Україна)
Kherson Direction: Detailed ISW maps indicate assessed Russian advances and areas of claimed Ukrainian counteroffensives on this front. Launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation on Kherson Oblast have been confirmed. (РБК-Україна, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Southern Donetsk Direction: Colonelcassad shares a video claiming sniper activity by the "Vostok" grouping. (Colonelcassad)
Starokonstantiniv (Khmelnytskyi Oblast): Николаевский Ванёк reports two drones approaching this location. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Nizhyn Area (Chernihiv Oblast): Николаевский Ванёк reports one drone south of this location, course towards Kyiv Oblast. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Khabarovsk Krai (Russia): Police in this region report on various law enforcement activities including theft, property damage, fire safety violations, fraud, and illegal labor. (Полиция Хабаровского края)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Continued, widespread, and dynamic Russian drone activity reported across multiple oblasts with updated and detailed trajectories provided. Ukrainian Air Force issues a specific warning for Dnipro, Mirhorod, Sloviansk, and Kyiv regarding approaching strike UAVs, specifically for Kyiv regarding an approaching strike UAV from the southeast, and now for Vinnytsia regarding an approaching strike UAV from the north and for southeastern Zhytomyr Oblast, and a new threat for Khmelnytskyi Oblast from the east. Updated information from the Ukrainian Air Force provides refined courses for drones, including for northwestern Sumy, northeastern Cherkasy, western Kyiv, northeastern Vinnytsia, and southeastern Zhytomyr Oblasts. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of Ukrainian "Bohdana" self-propelled artillery systems using "Lancet" drones. ASTRA shares videos and photos highlighting the aftermath of the night attacks in Kyiv, confirming damage and civilian medical appeals. New photos from the State Emergency Service in Kyiv show firefighters extinguishing fires in apartments and burned cars. Launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast, northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, and now Kherson Oblast and Zaporizhzhia Oblast have been confirmed. New detailed reporting provides an updated picture of remaining Russian drone activity across various oblasts, including movements towards Zhytomyr Oblast, Fastiv, Vasylkiv, Kremenchuk district, eastern Kyiv Oblast, and the Konotop area. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares videos and text regarding the attack on Kyiv and Cherkasy, confirming impacts and damage. Colonelcassad shares information and a video about a new French quadcopter. Colonelcassad is sharing images and videos of Russian drones (Orlans, Iks, Geraniums) participating in a Victory Day parade training in Moscow. РБК-Україна confirms the movement of enemy UAVs towards Kyiv from the southeast and a strike UAV moving towards Vinnytsia from the north. Recent reports provide further detail on remaining drone trajectories, including those heading towards Zhytomyr Oblast, Fastiv, Vasylkiv, Kremenchuk district, and circulating in eastern Kyiv Oblast, and specifically approaching Starokonstantiniv. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video evidence of impacts on a multi-story building in Kyiv and photos confirming the fire on the 12th floor of a residential building in Obolonskyi district has been extinguished. TASS reports a UAV destroyed in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky in Rostov Oblast. (Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, ASTRA, ДСНС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS], ТАСС)
Russian Tactical Aviation: Launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast, northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, and now Kherson Oblast and Zaporizhzhia Oblast have been confirmed. ([Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Black Sea Reconnaissance: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports continued enemy reconnaissance activity over the Black Sea, sharing a Flightradar24 image showing a Saab 340B ISR aircraft over Bulgaria and near Istanbul. This indicates ongoing intelligence gathering efforts over the Black Sea region by unknown actors. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)

Diplomatic and Political Developments:

Russian Information Operations: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны promotes a special project highlighting claimed achievements under Putin's leadership. Colonelcassad engages in information operations showcasing claimed Russian military successes and technology and presenting claimed evidence of Ukrainian "atrocities" in Kursk Oblast and claimed dead Ukrainian soldiers in Guyevo. TASS reports on a new scam involving ticket purchases. TASS reports that the President of Cuba is traveling to Russia to participate in Victory Day celebrations. Colonelcassad is sharing images and videos of Russian drones participating in a Victory Day parade training in Moscow. TASS reports that the Financial Times suggests Kyiv may resume military aggression against Russia if a peace agreement does not include the recognition of territories incorporated into the Russian Federation, especially Crimea. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, TASS)
Peace Negotiations and Territorial Disputes: TASS reports on a Financial Times article suggesting Kyiv may resume military aggression if a peace agreement does not include the recognition of Russian-held territories, particularly Crimea. This highlights the fundamental disagreement over territorial status as a major obstacle to a peace settlement and a potential trigger for future conflict. (TASS)
Internal Russian Politics: TASS reports that videoblogger Amiran Sardarov owes almost half a million rubles to the Federal Tax Service, according to law enforcement sources. This indicates a focus on tax collection by the Russian state and legal issues faced by individuals. (ТАСС)

Internal Russian Issues:

Information Operations: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны promotes a project highlighting claimed achievements under Putin's leadership. Colonelcassad engages in information operations showcasing claimed Russian military successes and technology. Colonelcassad presents claimed evidence of Ukrainian "atrocities" in Kursk Oblast and claimed dead Ukrainian soldiers in Guyevo. TASS reports on a new scam involving ticket purchases. TASS reports that the President of Cuba is traveling to Russia to participate in Victory Day celebrations. Colonelcassad is sharing images and videos of Russian drones participating in a Victory Day parade training in Moscow. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, TASS)
Military Readiness and Propaganda: Colonelcassad is sharing images and videos of Russian drones (Orlans, Iks, Geraniums) participating in a Victory Day parade training in Moscow, explicitly connecting them to "Our birds" and a significant national event. This serves as internal propaganda showcasing military capabilities and preparation for a key national event. (Colonelcassad)
Security and Societal Control: ASTRA reports on security forces conducting raids on bars in St. Petersburg and Yekaterinburg, checking documents, tattoos, and phones, and questioning individuals about their political views and attitudes towards the "SVO." This indicates an ongoing effort by Russian authorities to monitor and control potential dissent, particularly among younger generations, and suggests a focus on identifying individuals with perceived "left-radical" views or negative attitudes towards the conflict. The actions taken during these raids, including checking tattoos and private communications, highlight the extent of surveillance and control. (ASTRA)
Localized Law Enforcement Activities: A new report from the police in Khabarovsk Krai, a far eastern region of Russia, details various law enforcement activities including theft, property damage, violations of fire safety regulations, fraud, and illegal labor activities by migrants. This provides insight into localized internal Russian issues and law enforcement priorities outside of the immediate conflict zone. (Полиция Хабаровского края)
Taxation and Legal Issues: TASS reports that videoblogger Amiran Sardarov owes almost half a million rubles to the Federal Tax Service, according to law enforcement sources. This points to the Russian state's focus on tax collection and legal issues faced by individuals. (ТАСС)

Other Information:

Humanitarian Situation: ASTRA shares videos and photos highlighting the aftermath of the night attacks in Kyiv, confirming damage and civilian medical appeals. РБК-Україна reports two injured children in Kyiv, later updated to a total of four residents seeking medical assistance. КМВА reports three women sought medical assistance for stress reaction in Kyiv. New photos from the State Emergency Service in Kyiv show firefighters extinguishing fires and burned cars. ДСНС reports a total of 7 injured, including 2 children. ASTRA's visuals from Kyiv further underscore the civilian impact. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны confirms impacts and damage in Kyiv and Cherkasy, with residential areas affected. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video evidence of impacts on a multi-story building in Kyiv and photos confirming the fire on the 12th floor of a residential building in Obolonskyi district has been extinguished. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports four residents of Kyiv have sought medical assistance, receiving aid on the spot, citing Mayor Klitschko. (ASTRA, РБК-Україна, КМВА, ДСНС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS])
Global Defense Technology: Colonelcassad shares information and a video about a new French quadcopter. (Colonelcassad)

Potential Future Developments

Continued High Probability of Russian Aerial Attacks: The ongoing and widespread Russian drone activity, with numerous groups reported across multiple oblasts and updated trajectories, strongly indicates a continued high tempo of aerial attacks targeting various areas of Ukraine. The specific warnings for Dnipro, Mirhorod, Sloviansk, Kyiv, Vinnytsia, southeastern Zhytomyr Oblast, and now Khmelnytskyi Oblast, and the detailed tracking of drones towards numerous locations highlight immediate threats. Expect continued efforts by Russian forces to target Ukrainian artillery with systems like the Lancet, as showcased in recent information operations. The confirmed use of KABs on Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts indicates a continued threat of air-launched guided munitions on these fronts. The detailed reporting on remaining drone activity suggests potential for continued strikes in the areas of Dobropillya, Bila Tserkva, Pereyaslav, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Romny, and now potentially northeastern Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr Oblast, Fastiv, Vasylkiv, Kremenchuk district, eastern Kyiv Oblast, the Konotop area, and Starokonstantiniv.
Potential for Increased Casualties and Damage: The confirmed casualties and damage in Kyiv, including injured individuals and damage to residential buildings and vehicles, underscore the potential for further human cost and damage to civilian infrastructure as a result of the current wave of Russian aerial assaults across other oblasts. The increased total of 7 injured in Kyiv, including children, highlights the severe impact. The confirmation of impacts and damage in Cherkasy from a Russian source reinforces the potential for humanitarian consequences in that area. The launches of KABs on Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts also significantly increase the risk of civilian casualties and damage in those regions.
Sustained Intense Ground Combat: While the focus of recent updates has been on aerial attacks, the context of ongoing intense fighting on key axes remains. ISW analysis indicates Russian advances near Lyman, Siversk, Novopavlivka, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka, suggesting these areas will continue to see intense ground combat. Russian efforts to target Ukrainian artillery with Lancets, as highlighted by Colonelcassad, suggest continued counter-battery operations on the front lines. Russian claims of eliminating Ukrainian soldiers in Gornal and reported sniper activity on the Southern Donetsk direction indicate ongoing ground engagements in border areas and specific tactical actions. ISW maps depicting assessed Russian advances north of Sumy Oblast and significant fighting near Makivka suggest continued ground activity in the border region. Detailed ISW maps of the Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Svatove-Kreminna, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia directions visually confirm intense fighting and assessed Russian advances across these key fronts, indicating a high likelihood of continued heavy ground combat.
Escalation of Diplomatic and Economic Pressure: The information operation highlighting perceived achievements under Putin's leadership is likely to continue and intensify in the lead-up to Victory Day, aiming to rally domestic support. The participation of the Cuban President in Victory Day celebrations in Russia is an indicator of continued diplomatic and political signaling. The Russian narrative, as reported by TASS citing the Financial Times, framing Ukraine's stance on territorial integrity as a potential trigger for future conflict, will likely be amplified to justify their actions and pressure Ukraine into concessions.
Continued Information Operations: Both sides will continue to actively engage in information operations. Russia will likely continue to promote narratives highlighting their military successes and perceived internal strengths, and will likely increase efforts to portray Ukrainian forces as committing war crimes, as seen with the claimed "atrocities" in Kursk Oblast and claimed dead Ukrainian soldiers in Guyevo. Ukraine will likely continue to highlight the impact of Russian attacks on civilians and their own defensive successes. The showcasing of Russian drones in Victory Day parade training is a clear information operation aimed at demonstrating military strength and national pride.
Focus on Counter-Drone and Air Defense Measures: The continued widespread Russian drone activity and the confirmed successful interceptions in Mykolaiv underscore the ongoing critical need for effective counter-drone measures and air defense systems across Ukraine. The new warnings for various oblasts, including Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr Oblast, and Khmelnytskyi Oblast, and specifically for Starokonstantiniv, highlight immediate requirements for air defense response. Ukrainian efforts to target Russian drones, as seen with the claimed interception in Rostov Oblast, will likely continue.
Potential for Increased Activity in Border Regions: The Russian information operation focusing on Kursk Oblast with claims of Ukrainian "atrocities" and claimed dead Ukrainian soldiers in Guyevo could be a precursor to or justification for increased Russian military activity or information operations targeting this border region. Russian claims of eliminating Ukrainian soldiers in Gornal and ISW maps depicting assessed Russian advances north of Sumy Oblast and Russian field fortifications in Kursk Oblast suggest ongoing and potential future ground activity in the border regions.
Advancements in Unmanned Systems: The sharing of information about new drone technologies, like the French AXS-µ1, while not directly related to the current conflict, highlights the ongoing global advancements in unmanned systems, which will likely influence the development and deployment of drones by both sides in the future. The showcasing of Russian drones in a military parade context indicates the importance Russia places on these systems and suggests continued investment and development.
Increased Internal Russian Security Measures: The reported raids on bars in St. Petersburg and Yekaterinburg suggest a potential increase in efforts by Russian authorities to monitor and control domestic dissent and identify individuals with perceived opposition views. Expect potential further similar actions, particularly in urban centers. The report on various law enforcement activities in Khabarovsk Krai provides a glimpse into localized internal security concerns and priorities across Russia.
Continued Diplomatic Standoff over Territories: The report highlighting the fundamental disagreement over the status of territories incorporated into Russia suggests that a lasting peace agreement will be difficult to achieve without a significant shift in either side's position on this core issue. This is likely to remain a key point of contention in any future diplomatic discussions.
Continued Reconnaissance Over the Black Sea: The report of continued reconnaissance activity over the Black Sea, including an ISR aircraft, indicates ongoing efforts to gather intelligence in this strategic region. This activity is likely to continue.

Operational Summary

The immediate operational picture is dominated by widespread, dynamic, and intense Russian aerial activity across numerous Ukrainian oblasts, now extending to northeastern Vinnytsia Oblast, southeastern Zhytomyr Oblast, and Khmelnytskyi Oblast, and with confirmed launches of guided aerial bombs targeting Kherson Oblast. Detailed tracking and reporting of numerous Shahed groups with updated trajectories are provided, indicating a significant and ongoing aerial threat, with remaining drones tracked towards areas including Zhytomyr Oblast, Fastiv, Vasylkiv, Kremenchuk district, eastern Kyiv Oblast, the Konotop area, and Starokonstantiniv. Specific warnings have been issued for Dnipro, Mirhorod, Sloviansk, Kyiv, Vinnytsia, southeastern Zhytomyr Oblast, and Khmelnytskyi Oblast regarding approaching strike UAVs, and an air raid alert is active in Chernihiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblast communities. Launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation targeting Sumy Oblast, northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, and now Kherson Oblast and Zaporizhzhia Oblast have been confirmed. New detailed reporting provides an updated picture of remaining Russian drone activity across various oblasts. In Kyiv, the aftermath of the night attacks is being assessed, with confirmed damage from falling debris causing fires and property damage, including impacts on multi-story buildings and a fire on the 12th floor of a residential building in Obolonskyi district now extinguished, and a rising number of civilian medical appeals, now totaling 4 injured receiving aid on the spot (with previous reports stating 7 injured including 2 children). New photos from the State Emergency Service visually confirm the damage and emergency response in the capital. A Russian source also confirms impacts and damage in Kyiv and Cherkasy, with residential areas affected, attributing some damage to air defense activity and reiterating the scale of the attack. Ground combat remains intense on multiple axes, with ISW analysis indicating Russian advances near Lyman, Siversk, Novopavlivka, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka, and Ukrainian counterattacks in various areas. ISW maps also depict assessed Russian advances north of Sumy Oblast and significant fighting near Makivka, as well as Russian field fortifications in Kursk Oblast. Detailed ISW maps provide a granular view of the Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Svatove-Kreminna, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia directions, visually confirming intense fighting and assessed Russian advances across these key fronts. Russian military bloggers are engaged in information operations, showcasing claimed military successes, particularly the destruction of Ukrainian "Bohdana" artillery with "Lancet" drones, promoting domestic narratives highlighting perceived achievements under Putin's leadership, presenting claimed evidence of Ukrainian "atrocities" in Kursk Oblast and claimed dead Ukrainian soldiers in Guyevo, and showcasing Russian drones participating in Victory Day parade training in Moscow. The President of Cuba is traveling to Russia to participate in Victory Day celebrations, highlighting international support for Russia. Information about new global drone technology is being disseminated. The conflict continues to inflict a direct human cost on civilians, as evidenced by the casualties and psychological impact reported in Kyiv. Internally, Russia is conducting security raids on bars in major cities, indicating efforts to monitor and control potential dissent. Localized internal issues are also highlighted by a police report from Khabarovsk Krai detailing various law enforcement activities. A report on a Russian videoblogger's tax debt also provides a glimpse into internal legal matters. Diplomatic reporting highlights the fundamental disagreement over the status of territories incorporated into Russia as a major obstacle to a peace agreement. Russia is claiming successful combat engagements in border regions, including the elimination of nine Ukrainian soldiers in Gornal and claimed sniper activity on the Southern Donetsk direction. Reconnaissance activity continues over the Black Sea, with a reported ISR aircraft.

Potential Indicators

Further reports of drone attacks, their locations, and impact on civilian and military targets, including any new casualties or damage in the targeted oblasts, particularly northeastern Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr Oblast, Fastiv, Vasylkiv, Kremenchuk district, eastern Kyiv Oblast, the Konotop area, Khmelnytskyi Oblast, Starokonstantiniv, and Kherson Oblast. Detailed information on the trajectories of incoming drones provided by sources like Николаевский Ванёк and Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Further reports on the use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian forces, including targeting and impact, particularly in Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
Reports of successful interceptions of incoming drones by Ukrainian air defense, particularly in the targeted oblasts, including Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr Oblast, Khmelnytskyi Oblast, and Kherson Oblast, and in Russian territory like Rostov Oblast.
Further visual evidence of the aftermath of attacks in Kyiv and other targeted areas, supporting or refuting the extent of damage and casualties. Updated casualty figures from DSNS or other official sources.
Continued dissemination of specific information operations by Russian military bloggers, including further claims of successful strikes against Ukrainian equipment, promotion of domestic narratives, the continued dissemination of claimed evidence of Ukrainian "atrocities," particularly related to Kursk Oblast and Guyevo, and further showcasing of military equipment related to Victory Day celebrations. Further reports on international participation in Victory Day celebrations in Russia.
Reports from Ukrainian authorities regarding the impact of the aerial attacks and their response, including details on rescue and recovery efforts.
Any observable increase or change in Russian military activity in border regions, particularly Kursk Oblast, potentially linked to the recent information operations and claims of successful engagements in Gornal and Guyevo. Any observable changes in territorial control in the areas highlighted by ISW, such as Lyman, Siversk, Novopavlivka, Kurakhove, Velyka Novosilka, and north of Sumy Oblast, and in the detailed areas of the Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Svatove-Kreminna, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia directions.
Further information regarding the development and deployment of new drone technologies by either side, and their impact on operational capabilities. Further reports on the types and capabilities of Russian drones showcased in Victory Day parade training.
Reports of further security force raids or measures to control dissent in Russian cities. Further reports on localized law enforcement activities in regions like Khabarovsk Krai.
Any official statements or reports regarding potential peace negotiations and the positions of the parties involved, particularly concerning the status of territories.
Continued reporting and analysis of reconnaissance activity over the Black Sea, including the identification of assets and their potential objectives.
Further information or legal updates regarding the tax debt of Russian videoblogger Amiran Sardarov or other similar cases.
Further reports or visual confirmation of sniper activity or other small arms engagements in areas like the Southern Donetsk direction.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations.

Situation Report