Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 3, 2025, 11:48 UTC)

---

Updated Situation

The operational picture continues to be defined by intense ground combat, widespread Russian aerial assaults impacting both military and civilian infrastructure, and persistent Ukrainian deep strike capabilities, particularly utilizing unmanned systems. Diplomatic efforts, information operations, and internal challenges within both Russia and Ukraine remain significant factors influencing the conflict. New information reinforces the high level of fighting on specific fronts, details damage to civilian and religious sites from Russian and Ukrainian strikes, provides updates on diplomatic positioning regarding peace talks and the upcoming May 9th events, underscores continued logistical needs, and highlights ongoing information warfare. The confirmed report of a Ukrainian naval drone hitting a Russian Su-30 aircraft, if verified, represents a significant tactical and strategic development. Reports of Ukrainian drone attacks on a church and civilians in Belgorod Oblast highlight the continued targeting of civilian infrastructure in border regions and are being heavily used in Russian information operations. Claims of Ukrainian flag placements in Olesha, Kherson Oblast, and the subsequent Russian reaction, underscore ongoing information warfare tactics. Russian military bloggers are emphasizing the effectiveness of their drone operations against Ukrainian positions and reporting on claimed Russian advances. A report detailing the alleged mistreatment of a mobilized Russian soldier with severe injuries raises significant humanitarian and ethical concerns. A new report from the New York Times, cited by a Ukrainian source, suggests that Russian strikes have intensified since the start of ceasefire negotiations in February, leading to a significant increase in civilian casualties. Russia is actively using AI to create propaganda videos, as seen in a recent RT production featuring a deepfake of Winston Churchill. Russian military bloggers continue to solicit donations for critical equipment, highlighting ongoing logistical needs. A video report from the Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration highlights the continued agricultural efforts in the region despite the conflict, showcasing resilience and the ongoing importance of agricultural production. A significant report alleges a major corruption case within Ukraine's defense industry regarding the supply of unusable mortar rounds, which could have significant implications for military capabilities and internal stability. A Russian military blogger discusses the potential implications of the US stance on NATO defense spending and its impact on European countries. A Ukrainian source reports on the detention of a serial killer in Kyiv, which is not directly military-related but reflects on internal security matters. Russian sources continue to use propaganda videos and social media content to portray their perspective on the conflict and criticize Ukrainian leadership. Russian military bloggers are showcasing ongoing efforts to provide armored kits and other support to their troops. The Head of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast State Administration highlights the resilience of the agricultural sector in frontline regions.

Key updates and analysis:

• Sustained High-Intensity Ground Combat with Localized Russian Advances: The intensity of ground combat remains high across multiple axes, with the Ukrainian General Staff reporting 83 combat engagements on the Pokrovsk direction yesterday. This confirms the continued high level of pressure in this area. Liveuamap, citing the Ukrainian General Staff, further details yesterday's clashes on various axes: six combat engagements on the Kharkiv axis yesterday near Vovchansk and Kamyanka, six enemy attacks on the Kupyansk axis near Kolisnykivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka, and Zahryzove (repelled by Ukrainian forces), 27 enemy attacks on the Lyman axis near Nove, Zelena Dolyna, Kolodyazi, Myrne, Serhiyivka, Hrekivka, and Kopanky, one assault on the Siversk axis near Bilohorivka (repelled), eight enemy assault attempts on the Kramatorsk axis near Chasiv Yar and towards Novomarkove and Bila Hora, eight attacks on the Toretsk axis near Toretsk, Krymske, Druzhba and Sukha Balka, five assaults on the Orikhiv axis near Scherbaky, Mala Tokmachka and Stepove, and six attacks on the Huliaipole axis near Vysoke (repelled). These detailed reports from the Ukrainian General Staff provide a comprehensive overview of the sheer volume of fighting across the front lines yesterday and highlight the specific locations of intense engagements. Поддубный reports that the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has ordered reinforcement of defenses on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, including transferring armored vehicles, additional drone units, and EW specialists under the command of Drapatiy. This underscores the strategic importance of this direction for Ukraine and the perceived threat. Russian sources continue to claim localized tactical successes. Дневник Десантника reports on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, claiming continued fighting in Kotlino near the railway, successful Russian offensive actions south of Uspenovka entering Novoalexandrovka and consolidating in the southeastern part, and clearing a forest belt south of Uspenovka. They also claim Peschanoye is under Russian control and note no changes in Zverevo and Udachnoye (under Ukrainian control). They report Russian forces advanced along forest belts near Shevchenko. This provides specific claimed Russian tactical gains on this crucial axis. Воин DV reports on successful actions by snipers of the 37th separate guards motorized rifle brigade on the Southern Donetsk direction against Ukrainian personnel in a tree line, indicating ongoing small-unit engagements on this front. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares a video from a machine gunner of the 49th Separate Assault Battalion "Carpathian Sich" describing a battle on the outskirts of Toretsk where 13 enemy soldiers were eliminated and one taken prisoner. This highlights specific successful Ukrainian defensive actions on this front. Народная милиция ДНР shares a video claiming the destruction of Ukrainian positions with drone drops by the "Okhotnik" detachment of the 51st Combined Arms Army, demonstrating the continued use of drones for direct engagement against infantry positions. НгП раZVедка shares a video claiming the destruction of an American armored vehicle on the Artemivsk direction with a drone. This highlights Russian efforts to target Western-supplied equipment and their use of drones for this purpose. Сливочный каприз reports active combat near Velyka Novosilka on the Novopavlivka direction, with claimed Russian infantry attacks and the occupation of new positions south of Volne Pole, and a claimed Russian advance of over 1 km west of Velyka Novosilka. Geo-coordinates are provided. Военкор Котенок reports on the Aleksandro-Kalinovo direction, claiming continued Russian advances north towards Aleksandropol, Romanovka, and Zarya by units of the 150th and 20th Motorized Rifle Divisions. They claim assault actions in Staraya Nikolaevka (Pravdovka) by the 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment, advances towards Romanovka by the 68th Tank Regiment, and the 20th Motorized Rifle Division entering Aleksandropol from the west. They also report the liquidation of a pocket west of Kalinovo, attacks towards Gnatovka, and fighting and clearing operations in Novoolenovka by the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment. They assess that reaching Aleksandro-Kalinovo will disrupt Ukrainian logistics to Shcherbinivka and the western outskirts of Dzerzhinsk. This provides detailed claimed Russian tactical maneuvers and objectives on this front. Russian sources are actively using drone footage to showcase claimed successes against Ukrainian positions, personnel, and equipment. Mash на Донбассе shares a video claiming Russian UAV operators are accompanying civilians during evacuation from Konstantynopol (Southern Donetsk Direction), framing it as protecting civilians from Ukrainian attacks. This demonstrates Russian efforts to control the narrative around civilian safety and attribute blame for endangering civilians to Ukraine.
• Escalating Humanitarian Impact of Russian Aerial Attacks: The number of civilians injured in Kharkiv following recent Russian drone attacks has tragically risen to 51, including two girls aged 11 and 16. This underscores the severe humanitarian impact of continued Russian aerial assaults on urban areas. The use of thermobaric warheads in Kharkiv indicates a deliberate choice of ordnance likely intended to maximize damage and casualties. In Zaporizhzhia, the number of injured from the May 2nd attack is confirmed at 33. Олексій Білошицький shares graphic video footage from Zaporizhzhia showing the aftermath of a massive enemy drone attack on May 1st, depicting destroyed buildings and injured people, further illustrating the severe humanitarian consequences of these attacks and the work of emergency services. РБК-Україна reports that the Russian army conducted an airstrike on Sumy Oblast overnight, damaging infrastructure, residential buildings, an educational institution, social facilities, and cars, although preliminary reports indicate no casualties, highlighting the continued targeting of civilian infrastructure in various regions. Повітряні Сили ЗС України report enemy reconnaissance UAVs operating in southeastern Dnipropetrovsk and northeastern Kharkiv Oblasts, which could be spotters for enemy attacks, and state that measures are being taken to shoot them down, indicating ongoing Russian reconnaissance efforts and Ukrainian counter-drone activities. AV БогомаZ reports strong rains, thunderstorms, hail, and wind gusts up to 15-20 m/s predicted in some areas of Bryansk Oblast on May 4th, forecasting potential disruptions to power supply, damage to agricultural crops, cars, and property, and accumulation of wastewater. This highlights the impact of weather conditions on military operations and civilian life in border regions. AV БогоmaZ reports Ukrainian forces attacked the village of Novaya Pogoshch in Suzemsky district, Bryansk Oblast, with kamikaze drones, targeting civilians at a mobile shop and injuring three women and the driver. This highlights attacks on civilian targets in border regions and the resulting casualties. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація provides details on the extent of damage to residential and non-residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia and the ongoing efforts by communal services and volunteers to address the consequences of a recent enemy attack, including providing building materials to residents, highlighting the significant humanitarian impact of attacks on urban areas. Photos shared by the Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration show ongoing construction and repair work on residential and hospital buildings, indicating efforts to restore damaged infrastructure. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports that almost 4,700 families in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast have received over 296 million UAH in compensation through the "eVidnovlennya" state program for damaged homes, and 97 certificates have been issued for completely destroyed housing. An additional 300,000 UAH is being paid to families of fallen civilians through a regional program, with 50 families receiving aid this year. This highlights the ongoing humanitarian support efforts and the scale of damage to civilian housing in the region. Военкор Котенок, Дневник Десантника, and ТАСС report that a Ukrainian drone attacked the Church of George the Victorious in Tolokonnoe village, Belgorod Oblast, causing a fire in the domes, which was later extinguished. This highlights the continued targeting of civilian and potentially religious infrastructure in border regions and will likely be used in Russian information operations. ASTRA and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны also report on this incident, confirming the drone attack on the church in Belgorod Oblast. РБК-Україна reports that Russia conducted a direct airstrike with an aerial bomb on a rescue unit in Kupiansk, stating that personnel were on a call and only one rescuer was present, who was not injured. Photos are shared showing significant damage to the rescue unit building. Оперативний ЗСУ, citing a New York Times report, states that since the start of ceasefire negotiations in February, Russian strikes have intensified, leading to a significant increase in civilian casualties (848 killed or wounded in the first 24 days of April, a 46% increase compared to the same period last year). The report also notes a change in Russian tactics, focusing intense bombardment on single cities or towns for multiple nights, and reports over 2641 civilian casualties in the first three months of 2025. This information from a reputable source, cited by a Ukrainian channel, provides a significant assessment of the escalating humanitarian crisis and links it to recent diplomatic efforts.
• Significant Combined Ukrainian Unmanned and Missile Attack on Crimea and Novorossiysk and Russian Countermeasures, and Confirmation of Naval Drone-to-Air Engagement: Multiple sources confirm a large-scale Ukrainian UAV, unmanned boat, and missile attack on occupied Crimea and Novorossiysk overnight. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have destroyed a high number of Ukrainian drones (totaling 170 over regions of Russia, with 96 over Crimea and 47 over Krasnodar Krai), 8 Storm Shadow and 3 Neptune-MD missiles over the Black Sea, and 14 Ukrainian unmanned boats in the Black Sea. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports that a Russian Su-30 military aircraft was shot down in the sky over the Black Sea yesterday with the help of an unmanned boat, citing Russian military Telegram groups and specifying it was a Su-30. This is a highly significant claim regarding Ukrainian naval drone capabilities and a potential new threat to Russian air assets. Kotsnews reports on this incident from a Russian perspective, stating that a Russian crew was shot down over the Black Sea while hunting for drones, emphasizing the crew was on their own in the water and a civilian dry cargo ship came to their aid, criticizing the lack of effective Russian drone interceptors and questioning the use of manned aircraft for this task. This convergence of reporting from both Ukrainian and Russian sources regarding a Russian aircraft being hit by a Ukrainian naval drone, even with differing details and interpretations, indicates a high probability of such an event occurring and its significance. STERNENKO shares video from GUR MO showing the downing of a Russian Su-30 near Novorossiysk with a surface-to-air missile from a naval drone. The report claims this is the first such destruction of a combat aircraft globally, carried out by GUR MO special unit "Group 13" with a Magura unmanned naval platform using a surface-to-air missile. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна also officially confirm the downing of a Russian Su-30 by a Magura naval drone with a missile near Novorossiysk on May 2nd, with РБК-Україна specifying a "Neptune" missile. The official confirmation from Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR MO) and other Ukrainian sources, explicitly stating the use of a naval drone with a surface-to-air missile to down a Russian Su-30, provides significant validation to the earlier reports and highlights a new, highly effective Ukrainian capability. The specification of the Magura platform and the type of missile used (claimed as Neptune by one source, R-73 by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Colonelcassad) are crucial details. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno also acknowledges this event, framing it as a success for Ukrainian enthusiasts' BEC initiative against an "analogues-net" Russian Su-30, indicating recognition and emphasis on the role of domestically developed unmanned systems. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reiterates the claim of the first in the world downing of a combat aircraft by a naval drone, specifying the use of an R-73 missile from a Magura platform by GUR MO's "Group 13" near Novorossiysk on May 2nd. They also mention the pilot likely ejected but their fate is unknown and recall a previous instance of Magura drones destroying Russian Mi-8 helicopters in December 2024. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС also shares the video and confirms the first-in-history destruction of a combat aircraft by a Magura naval drone with a missile on May 2nd near Novorossiysk. Colonelcassad, from a Russian perspective, also shares the video and confirms the downing of a Su-30SM near Novorossiysk during the massive naval drone attack. They state the aircraft was hit by an R-73 missile launched from one of the naval drones and that both pilots survived and were evacuated. They also claim Russia lost 14 BECs (unmanned boats) and shot down 11 missiles (8 Storm Shadow and 3 Neptune-MD) during the night attack. This further reinforces the event and provides Russian claimed details on the weapon used and outcomes for the pilots, along with their claimed successes in countering the attack. ASTRA also shares the video and confirms the loss of a Russian Su-30 over the Black Sea near Novorossiysk while attempting to destroy a Ukrainian unmanned boat during the night attack, citing the GUR video and Russian pro-war channels, including Rybar's report that the pilots managed to eject. Два майора shares video claiming the destruction of unmanned boats with combat charges near the coast of Crimea and Sevastopol, likely related to the recent attack. Дневник Десантника reports that the criminal Kyiv regime attempted a missile strike on Crimean infrastructure overnight using 8 Storm Shadow and 3 Neptune missiles, which were all shot down by Russian air defense, and that Black Sea Fleet forces destroyed 23 enemy unmanned boats over the past day. This provides a Russian narrative of the attack and their claimed successes in countering it. The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that at night on May 3, the AFU attempted a missile strike by eight Storm Shadow air-based cruise missiles and three Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles at infrastructure of the Crimean Peninsula, which were all shot down by air defense systems, with no casualties or destruction. They also claim that over the past 24 hours, units of the Black Sea Fleet destroyed 23 uncrewed surface vehicles of the enemy attempting to attack coastal infrastructure facilities of the Crimean Peninsula. This is the official Russian report on the attack.
• Increased Focus on Diplomacy and Peace Negotiations, and Tensions around May 9th: РБК-Україна reports that President Zelenskyy stated there are signals that after a ceasefire, Ukraine might be left "one on one" with the Russians, acknowledging the difficulty of negotiations and the potential for some countries, including the US, to step back after a ceasefire agreement, but also stating that Europe will remain involved. This highlights Ukrainian concerns about potential post-ceasefire diplomatic support. РБК-Україна reports on Zelenskyy's meeting with Trump in the Vatican, describing it as the "shortest, but most substantive," and that they discussed the minerals agreement, sanctions packages against Russia, and air defense systems, with Zelenskyy believing the one-on-one format worked well. This confirms high-level discussions on key issues and Ukraine's focus on continued US support. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны and ASTRA report that Zelenskyy rejected Putin's proposal for a 3-day ceasefire for May 9th, with Zelenskyy stating Ukraine cannot guarantee the safety of world leaders in Moscow on that date. This explicitly rejects a Russian diplomatic overture and raises the possibility of continued military activity around a symbolic date. STERNENKO reiterates Zelenskyy's statement about not guaranteeing the safety of world leaders in Moscow on May 9th, and also reports that Zelenskyy stated Ukraine is ready for a ceasefire from May 7th, but for a duration of 30 days, arguing that 3-7 days is insufficient for reaching agreements. This presents a counter-proposal for a significantly longer ceasefire period and explains the rationale. Оперативний ЗСУ reiterates Zelenskyy's statement about being ready for a 30-day ceasefire from May 7th, and also reports that Zelenskyy stated Ukraine cannot be responsible for what happens on the territory of the Russian Federation on May 9th and will not provide guarantees to countries attending events in Moscow. This is a strong diplomatic signal, potentially intended to deter attendance or highlight the ongoing conflict and risk. Alex Parker Returns attributes Zelenskyy's rejection of the ceasefire and statement about not guaranteeing safety in Moscow to him being a "military dictator" and links it to Serbian President Vucic's sudden illness. Военкор Котенок also states that Zelenskyy rejected the 3-day ceasefire and threatened the safety of world leaders in Moscow on May 9th, interpreting this as a real threat and warning of a strong Russian response, including the potential use of "Oreshniks" (likely referring to advanced Russian weaponry) against Kyiv if Ukraine strikes the Victory Parade, and suggesting this action is a form of revenge for Western leaders not attending events in Kyiv on May 9th. This highlights Russian military bloggers' strong reaction and perceived threat from Zelenskyy's statements and links the diplomatic tension to potential military escalation. Старше Эдды interprets Zelenskyy's statements as an ultimatum, demanding a 30-day ceasefire or threatening strikes, including on the Moscow parade, and urges Russia to perceive these as real threats and escalate responses. This further reinforces the perception of heightened risk and potential escalation around May 9th within the Russian military blogosphere. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Vucic and Fico have suddenly fallen ill and canceled important events, putting their trip to Moscow for May 9th in question, noting that both had recently promised to attend and suggesting that "Katsaps" (a derogatory term for Russians) suspect something. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also reports on the sudden illnesses of Vucic and Fico, linking it to their planned attendance at the May 9th event in Moscow and suggesting that "Katsaps" suspect something. This highlights the political sensitivity and speculation surrounding foreign leaders' attendance at the Moscow parade and the potential for external pressure or events to influence their decisions. ASTRA reports that the US is preparing new sanctions against Russia, potentially targeting Gazprom and major companies in the banking and natural resource sectors, citing Reuters. The report states the goal is to pressure Moscow to agree to a ceasefire as proposed by Trump, but notes it's unclear if Trump will sign these sanctions. The report includes a quote from Kurt Volker suggesting Trump is trying to get Putin to agree to a ceasefire and Putin is rejecting it, and that adopting sanctions could mean a tougher stance from Trump towards Russia. This indicates ongoing US efforts to exert economic pressure on Russia, linking it to potential peace negotiations, but highlights the uncertainty of future US policy. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports that a delegation of Ukrainian women participated in the 69th session of the UN Commission on the Status of Women (CSW69) in New York, where they held meetings with US congressmen, spoke on panels, and organized a public meeting on Times Square. The key topic was the liberation of Ukrainian prisoners of war, highlighting inhuman conditions, war crimes, and violations of international humanitarian law by Russia. The report emphasizes the importance of such events for the world community to know the truth about the war and not stand aside. This highlights Ukrainian efforts to raise international awareness about the plight of POWs and alleged Russian war crimes, likely to garner support and pressure for their release and accountability. ТАСС reports that Mirziyoyev and Putin discussed international agenda and strengthening bilateral relations via telephone. This indicates continued diplomatic engagement between Russia and Uzbekistan. ТАСС later reports that Shavkat Mirziyoyev confirmed his participation in the anniversary events in Moscow in honor of the 80th anniversary of Victory, indicating his planned attendance at the May 9th parade. Два майора shares a message from Dmitry Medvedev calling Zelenskyy's statement rejecting the 3-day ceasefire and not guaranteeing safety in Moscow a "verbal provocation" and threatening that if there is a real provocation on Victory Day, "no one guarantees that May 10 will come in Kyiv." This is a clear and direct escalation in Russian rhetoric and a significant threat. ТАСС reports Medvedev's statement calling Zelenskyy's threats a "verbal provocation" and stating that in case of a real provocation on Victory Day, no one guarantees that May 10 will come to Kyiv. This reinforces the severity of the Russian response to Zelenskyy's statements. Colonelcassad also reports on Medvedev's statement, mirroring the threats about May 10th in Kyiv. РБК-Україна reports that Zelenskyy believes the meeting in the Vatican influenced Trump's position, stating that Trump started to look at things a bit differently after their meeting, and that Ukraine acted constructively and decently. This provides Zelenskyy's perspective on the impact of his diplomatic engagement with Trump. Воин DV reports that the US State Department has approved the sale of equipment for F-16 support and pilot training to Ukraine for $310 million, noting that this is not free supply like under Biden and that Trump is gradually getting involved in continuing military aid, now for real money. They speculate that the trigger was the signing of the resource deal with Ukraine, and that the US might withdraw from stalled negotiations and provide military supplies on a commercial basis. This indicates a continuation of US military aid, albeit potentially under different terms, and links it to broader diplomatic and economic agreements. Colonelcassad discusses the public demand from Europe and Ukraine for a place at the negotiation table, arguing that under Trump, the US and Russia are discussing Ukraine's fate without Ukraine and Europe. He analyzes the EU foreign policy service's statement that Europe does not want to be a mediator but wants to supply weapons to Kyiv. This highlights the perceived exclusion of Ukraine and Europe from certain high-level discussions and the EU's stated focus on providing military support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares an interview with former CIA head Ralph Goff who states that the US was afraid to give Ukraine enough weapons to win, only enough to bleed, and that Biden and other partners delayed critical arms supplies due to Putin's nuclear rhetoric. Goff believes Ukraine started looking for asymmetric solutions due to the understanding that Western weapons would not be enough to win, citing the naval drone that shot down a Russian aircraft. He also mentions that he was not allowed to the highest position in the CIA due to Trump's position. This provides a critical perspective on Western military aid strategy and links it to Ukraine's development of asymmetric capabilities. РБК-Україна reports that Zelenskyy named two approaches being discussed regarding foreign contingents for Ukraine: one with a larger number of troops but without US support, and another with a smaller number but with involvement "if there is Article Five, because similar to Article Five" of NATO. Zelenskyy also emphasized that the strongest security guarantee is a strong Ukrainian army. This clarifies Ukraine's thinking on potential post-conflict security arrangements involving foreign military presence.
• Internal Russian Issues and Discipline Concerns: "Север.Реалии" reports a disturbing incident in Kursk Oblast where a Russian servicemember broke into a multi-child family's home and opened fire on the owners, killing the woman and severely injuring her husband, citing a conversation with fellow villagers. This highlights serious concerns about discipline, control, and potential criminal behavior among some Russian military personnel, particularly in border regions. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on the detention of a servicemember from occupied Luhansk (LNR) suspected of killing fellow servicemen by locking them in a cage ("chicken coop") and throwing a grenade inside after they refused to follow an order, framing it with the Russian propaganda slogan "Work, brothers!". This further underscores potential severe internal discipline issues, including insubordination and deadly violence within Russian or proxy military units. Басурин о главном criticizes a Belgian procurement of French armored vehicles, highlighting significant cost overruns and lack of risk analysis, framing it as a "massive failure" and questioning Belgium's position to lecture others. While not directly related to the front lines, this reflects on internal perceptions of Western military efficiency and potential corruption within defense procurement. Север.Реалии reports that students at the St. Petersburg Institute of Cinema and Television have asked the Ministry of Culture to investigate the mass dismissal of masters and teachers from the directing department due to a new regulation requiring students to approve their films with an artistic council, which many consider censorship. Seven masters and two teachers left the university. The report includes a quote from director Alexander Sokurov stating that censoring student work fits into the general censorship absurdity and lawlessness. This highlights growing concerns about censorship and its impact on educational institutions in Russia. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА discusses perceived issues with Roma communities in Russia, comparing them to migration scandals and highlighting alleged lawlessness. This reflects attention being paid to internal social tensions within Russia. TASS reports that Bastrykin has ordered a criminal case to be initiated after the desecration of a memorial to Soviet soldiers in Bulgaria. Vandals damaged the memorial complex dedicated to the feat of Soviet submariners and Bulgarian underground fighters. This highlights diplomatic tensions and efforts to protect historical narratives. Север.Реалии features an interview with Arkadiy Mayofis, the founder of TV-2 channel, discussing Jews, business, "Putin's aliyah," and the war in Ukraine, including his perspective on why Russia will never be free. This provides insight into internal Russian perspectives and emigration. Рыбарь reports on the deportation of over 130 migrants from Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan) from the US, noting that Uzbekistan fully funded the operation and that American authorities praised this as deep cooperation in security. The report contrasts this with deportations from Russia, which are funded by Russia and often met with criticism from the migrants' home countries. This highlights a Russian perspective on migration control and international cooperation, implicitly criticizing their own government's approach and highlighting the perceived difference in treatment by the US. Два майора promotes a craftsman selling "NKVD fin" knives for Victory Day, describing them as handmade with engraving and a lifetime warranty, emphasizing "memory" and "character." This reflects efforts to promote symbols associated with Soviet history and security organs, potentially appealing to a nationalistic or militaristic sentiment. ASTRA reports on the case of mobilized Russian soldier Dzatte Mamtov who, despite being deemed temporarily unfit for service due to significant injuries (missing arm, festering leg, non-seeing eye), was allegedly sent to assault operations, subsequently went missing on April 20th, and whose bank card was allegedly used to attempt to extract funds near Avdeevka. The family believes he was kidnapped by military personnel from the 5th brigade and sent to the front despite his condition, and they are seeking an investigation. This report highlights serious concerns about the treatment of injured mobilized soldiers, potential forced deployment, and alleged illicit financial activity within the Russian military. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video claiming Russian soldiers are being transported home in body bags ("wooden overcoats") and highlighting wounded soldiers awaiting transport, likely intended to demoralize Russian forces and highlight the human cost of the conflict. This is a significant piece of Ukrainian information operation directly targeting Russian morale. Colonelcassad is offering a web security training course, which while not directly related to the front lines, reflects potential skill sets being developed or offered within the Russian military or affiliated circles.
• Propaganda and Information Operations: Alex Parker Returns shares video acknowledging the Ukrainian attack on Crimea and Novorossiysk and links it to upcoming documentary about 25 years of Putin's rule, with a sarcastic tone, also mentioning an oil spill, potentially hinting at other issues or failures. ТАСС reports that Medvedev called Trump's statement about the US making the main contribution to victory in WWII "pathetic nonsense," engaging in historical narrative contestation. ТАСС reports on the main goal of introducing behavior grades in Russian schools as strengthening conscious discipline and highlighting key criteria, indicating a focus on social control and instilling desired values among youth. Alex Parker Returns shares photos presented as showing Ukrainians undergoing rehabilitation in a psychiatric hospital after combat, with captions implying they are creating items with symbols (one appears to have a swastika), framing it as a master class in pottery, and accompanying it with a donation link, likely a crude and offensive information operation aimed at dehumanizing Ukrainian soldiers and associating them with Nazism, while also potentially collecting funds. Дневник Десантника reports that Ukrainian Armed Forces will participate in a parade in London on May 5th to commemorate the 80th anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany, framed within a narrative of Western support for Ukraine. ASTRA also reports on this, quoting the British Minister of Defence stating it is appropriate that Ukrainian forces fighting for freedom are represented. This highlights a symbolic act of international support for Ukraine and a counter-narrative to Russian claims. Рыбарь reports on alleged efforts by British authorities to crack down on "charitable" organizations funding foreign armies, including Ukrainian societies that purchased DJI Mavic drones for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, suggesting this is a deliberate move to control funding for foreign military activities and potentially targeting specific groups, framing it as "Britons fighting against collections." This report from a Russian source indicates awareness of Western public support for Ukraine and potential efforts to counter it. ТАСС reports that a Russian Duma committee member believes the UK invited the Ukrainian Armed Forces to the Victory Day ceremony due to British interests in the Black Sea, framing the invitation within a narrative of geopolitical calculation rather than historical commemoration. Alex Parker Returns shares a photo with a caption contrasting exchanging Tokyo for Nizhny Novgorod with the question "What have you achieved?", potentially a commentary on personal success and choices, possibly related to emigration or joining the military. ASTRA reports on the announced reopening of the Mariupol Drama Theater by "DPR" authorities by the end of the year, highlighting the conflicting narratives surrounding the theater's destruction in 2022 and the disputed casualty figures, with Russian authorities claiming only 14 deaths while witnesses and experts estimate several hundred, framing the reopening as a sign of "restoration" while independent reports point to a deliberate Russian attack. This demonstrates the ongoing contestation of the narrative around the Mariupol tragedy. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos and a detailed account of a junior sergeant from the 503rd Separate Marine Battalion ("Strazh"), highlighting his combat experience, drone skills, effectiveness against enemy personnel and equipment (claiming over 250 enemies eliminated), participation in crossing the Dnipro, challenges of combat (lack of rotation, difficult conditions, injuries), and his return to service as an instructor, accompanied by patriotic slogans. This is a clear Ukrainian information operation aimed at showcasing military valor, effectiveness of drone operations, and resilience of soldiers, likely to boost morale and recruitment. Военкор Котенок shares a political analysis claiming that the threats from "overdue" Zelenskyy are real, interpreting his statements about not guaranteeing safety in Moscow as a direct threat to attack the Victory Parade and the Crimean Bridge, suggesting this is revenge for Western leaders not attending events in Kyiv on May 9th, and warning of a massive Russian response. This exemplifies the heightened information warfare around the upcoming May 9th events and the use of strong, accusatory language. Fighterbomber shares a photo of Zelenskyy with text stating Ukraine cannot ensure the safety of world leaders in Moscow on May 9th, adding sarcastically that Ukraine cannot ensure safety even in Kyiv, citing the example of Maxim Kuzminov (a Russian pilot who defected to Ukraine and was later found dead in Spain). This is a Russian information operation aiming to portray Ukraine as incapable and dangerous, linking the statement to a specific incident to add a veneer of credibility. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares a graphic image of several individuals in what appears to be Soviet-era uniforms with a caption in Ukrainian that translates to "Soon a wonderful day - they will all be carried on sticks. Identification of the leadership, who were buried secretly. In Wehrmacht uniforms and photoshopped tunics, they have already sat on sticks." This is a clear Ukrainian information operation aimed at mocking and dehumanizing the Russian military leadership, associating them with Nazi Germany, and celebrating their deaths. The phrase "sat on sticks" is a colloquial and vulgar way of saying they are dead or will be killed. The text also includes patriotic slogans "Glory to the Nation. Death to the enemies." This is a strong example of psychological warfare. РБК-Україна reports that British intelligence believes the Russian army is heading for a new record in losses on the front, estimating approximately 160,000 soldiers lost in the first four months of 2025, and noting that Russia has not achieved significant success despite these heavy losses. This is a significant piece of intelligence from a Western source highlighting Russian casualties and lack of decisive gains. РБК-Україна also includes a graphic from British intelligence showing Russian daily average losses from March 2022 to April 2025, indicating a rising trend in the latter half of 2024 and early 2025. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming a TCC (Territorial Recruitment Center) in Lutsk detained a delivery worker during his shift, with a military commissar reportedly taking his bicycle. This highlights perceived aggressive recruitment practices in Ukraine. НгП раZVедка shares a video claiming the destruction of an American armored vehicle near Artemivsk with a drone, using derogatory and sarcastic language ("American box," "self-propelled chubovoz," "hassan riders," "traffic rules") and including a call for Ukrainian soldiers to comply with traffic rules in Lviv. This is a clear example of Russian propaganda employing dehumanizing language and black humor. Fighterbomber shares a message from "Reporter Filatov" advising his subscribers not to read "this channel" because Sladkov refers to "fighter-bomber." This indicates internal information warfare among Russian military bloggers and concerns about information sources. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video claiming Ukrainian drone operators used magnets to place Ukrainian flags in Olesha, followed by claims that the settlement is under Ukrainian control and Russian forces have been driven out. The author dismisses this as a "Kursk adventure" that is more "brilliant" than previous Ukrainian operations in Bakhmut, Vuhledar, the Azov Sea massacre, Avdiivka, and Krynky, which they attribute to the British. This highlights a Russian perspective on Ukrainian information operations and attempts to discredit their actions and link them to Western influence. Старше Эдды claims Ukrainians burned another Orthodox church in Belgorod Oblast, reiterating the idea of a religious war and portraying the conflict as a fight against "demons." This is a strong example of religious framing in Russian propaganda. Военкор Котенок also reports on the drone attack on the church in Belgorod, labeling the attackers as "Ukrainian Satanists." This demonstrates the use of highly inflammatory and dehumanizing language in Russian information operations related to attacks on religious sites. ОТУ "Харків" shares a photo remembering James Ernest Mace, an American historian who informed the US and the world about the Holodomor, highlighting its recognition as a genocide and his contributions to this understanding and his life in Ukraine. This is a Ukrainian information operation emphasizing historical narratives, international recognition of past injustices, and national identity. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a sarcastic question to Russian veterans about participating in the May 9th parade as "suckers," accompanied by a photo of Adam Kadyrov in military uniform with medals, likely intended to mock and demoralize Russian forces and highlight perceived issues within their ranks. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a sarcastic video with a similar theme of mocking Russian life and military, likely intended to be demoralizing propaganda. Басурин о главном shares a video from RT featuring a deepfake of Winston Churchill, created using AI, reading a letter to Stalin with a quote emphasizing the Soviet army's contribution to defeating Germany in WWII. The accompanying text contrasts this with the current British government's stance on history and claims this is an effort to give a voice to someone who witnessed the "steadfastness of Soviet soldiers." This is a clear example of Russian state-backed information operation leveraging historical figures and AI technology to promote a specific narrative about WWII and the Russian role in it, likely aimed at influencing both domestic and international audiences and drawing parallels to the current conflict. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing body bags being loaded onto an IL transport plane in Orenburg and wounded Russian soldiers awaiting transport, with a sarcastic caption referencing the upcoming parade and the human cost of the war. This is a potent piece of Ukrainian information operation aimed at demoralizing Russian forces and highlighting their losses. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on Medvedev's reaction to Zelenskyy's statements regarding the May 9th ceasefire and safety guarantees in Moscow, quoting Medvedev's derogatory remarks and threats about May 10th in Kyiv. This highlights the escalated rhetoric and information warfare surrounding the upcoming symbolic date. Mash на Донбассе shares a video claiming Russian UAV operators are accompanying civilians during evacuation from Konstantynopol (Southern Donetsk Direction), framing it as protecting civilians from Ukrainian attacks. This demonstrates Russian efforts to control the narrative around civilian safety and attribute blame for endangering civilians to Ukraine. Colonelcassad, in the context of reporting on the damaged church in Belgorod Oblast, frames the incident as an intentional act by "Nazis" using drones to burn the church, linking it to previous incidents and suggesting it is intended to "create a negotiation background." This is a clear example of Russian propaganda using inflammatory language, attributing blame, and attempting to assign strategic intent to the attack on a religious site. Олександр Вілкул, Head of the Kryvyi Rih Defense Council, shares photos and a report on a city-wide beautification effort involving planting trees and cleaning parks, framing it as an act of "love for the native city" and highlighting community unity. While not directly military, this serves as a form of information operation showcasing resilience and a return to normalcy amidst the conflict. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video claiming Ukrainian special forces used a "heavy bomber" drone to destroy a group of Russian servicemen in Belgorod Oblast and that such operations disrupt Russian efforts to form offensive groups. This is a Ukrainian information operation highlighting claimed successful strikes on Russian territory and their perceived strategic impact.
• Ukrainian Military Adaptation and Effectiveness: The detailed account of the Ukrainian junior sergeant "Strazh" highlights the importance of individual soldier initiative, training (including on drones and Javelin), adaptation to combat conditions (crossing the Dnipro, fighting in Krynky), and the significant impact of drone operations on eliminating enemy personnel and equipment. His return to service as an instructor underscores the importance of knowledge transfer and adaptation within the Ukrainian forces. The unit identification (503rd Separate Marine Battalion) provides specificity regarding where these tactics and personnel are operating. Повітряні Сили ЗС України report enemy reconnaissance UAVs operating in southeastern Dnipropetrovsk and northeastern Kharkiv Oblasts, which could be spotters for enemy attacks, and state that measures are being taken to shoot them down, indicating ongoing Russian reconnaissance efforts and Ukrainian counter-drone activities. The confirmed capability to engage air targets with naval drones, if widely adopted, could represent a significant escalation and force changes in Russian air and naval tactics, potentially requiring Russia to modify their approach to counter-drone operations over the Black Sea. This new capability poses a direct threat to Russian air assets operating over the sea. ГУР МО, Оперативний ЗСУ, and РБК-Україна officially confirming the downing of a Russian Su-30 by a Magura naval drone with a missile near Novorossiysk on May 2nd, with details on the unit ("Group 13"), platform ("Magura"), and claimed weapon ("Neptune" by one source, R-73 by others), provides strong evidence of a successful execution of a novel tactic, showcasing Ukrainian innovation and adaptation in naval warfare. The claim of this being the "first in the world" destruction of a combat aircraft by a naval drone highlights the novelty and significance of this event, potentially influencing future naval warfare doctrine. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reiterates the claim of the first in the world downing of a combat aircraft by a naval drone, specifying the use of an R-73 missile from a Magura platform by GUR MO's "Group 13" near Novorossiysk on May 2nd and recalling a previous instance of Magura drones destroying Russian Mi-8 helicopters in December 2024. This reinforces the ongoing development and successful application of Ukrainian naval drone capabilities. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС also shares the video and confirms the first-in-history destruction of a combat aircraft by a Magura naval drone with a missile. Colonelcassad, from a Russian perspective, also confirms the downing of a Su-30SM near Novorossiysk during the massive naval drone attack and states the aircraft was hit by an R-73 missile launched from one of the naval drones. This confirmation from a Russian source lends further credibility to the Ukrainian claims regarding the successful use of a naval drone to engage an air target. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares a video from a machine gunner of the 49th Separate Assault Battalion "Carpathian Sich" describing a successful battle near Toretsk where 13 enemy soldiers were eliminated and one taken prisoner. This highlights specific examples of successful Ukrainian defensive operations and tactical effectiveness. ОТУ "Харків" shares a video claiming successful strikes by "Baba Yaga" (large hexacopter) drones of border aerial reconnaissance of the 4th border detachment on three enemy vehicles and three positions in Kharkiv Oblast during a night raid. This highlights the continued effective use of heavy lift/bombing drones by Ukrainian forces. Два майора shares a video claiming that drone operators from the 177th Separate Guards Marine Regiment of the Caspian Flotilla are destroying enemy personnel in Myropillia, Sumy Oblast. They claim Ukraine is using the settlement as a temporary deployment point and trying to accumulate reserves. This provides a Russian perspective on Ukrainian activity in this border area and the use of drones against it. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video claiming Ukrainian special forces used a "heavy bomber" drone to destroy a group of Russian servicemen in Belgorod Oblast and that such operations disrupt Russian efforts to form offensive groups. This is a Ukrainian information operation highlighting claimed successful strikes on Russian territory and their perceived strategic impact. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares a video focused on military training and the "Course of Young Fighter" with the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade named after the Black Zaporozhians, highlighting physical and psychological challenges and character development. This is a clear Ukrainian information operation aimed at recruitment and showcasing the training standards and ethos of a specific brigade.
• Logistical and Resource Issues: The Russian military blogger report on the Belgian procurement scandal, while not directly on the front, reflects on the complexities and potential pitfalls of military procurement. Басурин о главном's report on the attack in Horlivka injuring emergency services personnel and damaging a headquarters vehicle highlights the impact of the conflict on essential support services and military infrastructure in occupied territories. Рыбарь's report on British authorities allegedly cracking down on funding for foreign armies, including Ukrainian societies, suggests potential challenges for Ukraine in securing external non-governmental funding for military equipment like drones. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports on difficulties in collecting donations for drones for Russian soldiers, attributing it to people believing Trump, and highlights the continued need for drones for their forces. They state that collecting donations is slow and their guys on the positions are having a hard time, urging people to donate more actively. This provides insight into logistical and funding challenges faced by some Russian military support efforts and links it to external political factors. РБК-Україна reports that a unit of the "Rubizh" National Guard Brigade is collecting funds for the restoration of destroyed property and equipment, listing specific needs including tactical equipment, camouflage, technical equipment, pilot equipment, and car repairs, setting a goal of 450,000 hryvnias. They emphasize the ongoing nature of the war and the need for public support. This highlights the resource needs and fundraising efforts of specific Ukrainian units. Два майора reports receiving a significant donation (650,000 rubles) from a reader for the front, highlighting continued public support for Russian forces through donations. Два майора shares a video thanking readers for providing metal for the production of armored kits for paratroopers on the Sumy direction, indicating specific needs and successful procurement through donations in that area. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація reports on ongoing efforts to address the consequences of enemy attacks, including providing building materials to residents, highlighting the logistical challenges and humanitarian support required. Photos shared by the Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration show ongoing construction and repair work on residential and hospital buildings, indicating efforts to restore damaged infrastructure. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports on the "eVidnovlennya" program providing compensation for damaged homes and certificates for destroyed housing in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and a regional program for families of fallen civilians. This highlights the significant logistical and financial resources required to address the humanitarian impact of the conflict. Два майора promotes a craftsman selling "NKVD fin" knives for Victory Day, which, while a commercial activity, reflects the ongoing demand for military-themed items and potentially indirect support for the conflict. Воин DV reports that the US State Department has approved the sale of equipment for F-16 support and pilot training to Ukraine for $310 million. While not free supply, this indicates a continuation of US military aid, now on a commercial basis, addressing a key logistical need for Ukraine. Colonelcassad details claimed Russian strikes on Ukrainian military and logistical targets in the DPR overnight, including temporary deployment points, a stabilization point, a field communications node, a field artillery depot, and repair/storage facilities in Slavyansk. The claimed destruction of vehicles, equipment (including Starlink), and ammunition (over 40 tons) and claimed casualties highlight Russian efforts to disrupt Ukrainian logistics and resources. Дневник Десантника is conducting a fundraising campaign for two Mavic 3 drones for paratroopers on the Zaporizhzhia direction, highlighting a specific logistical need and reliance on public donations. This demonstrates the continued reliance on public support for acquiring essential equipment like drones for Russian forces. Два майора shares a video showcasing the process of assembling armored kits for "Ural" vehicles and weaving camouflage netting, emphasizing that all equipment and materials are from "people's aid" and are "for the Front! For Victory!" This is a visual representation of ongoing logistical support efforts by Russian volunteers and military bloggers and serves as a call for continued donations.
• Diplomatic and Political Messaging: Medvedev's response to Trump's WWII statement is part of a broader historical narrative contestation. The planned participation of Ukrainian Armed Forces in the London parade is a symbolic act of international support. Russian officials' interpretation of this invitation as being driven by British interests in the Black Sea reflects geopolitical suspicion. Zelenskyy's discussions with Trump on minerals, sanctions, and air defense highlight key areas of bilateral focus. His statements about potential isolation after a ceasefire and the difficulty of negotiations underscore the complex diplomatic landscape. Zelenskyy's rejection of the 3-day ceasefire proposal by Ukraine and counter-proposal for a 30-day truce sets a different framework for potential de-escalation. His refusal to guarantee the safety of leaders in Moscow on May 9th and statements about Ukraine not being responsible for events in Russia on that date are significant diplomatic signals, potentially intended to deter attendance or highlight the ongoing conflict and risk. The Serbian and Slovakian Presidents' sudden illnesses and canceled trips, linked by some to potential pressure to avoid the May 9th parade in Moscow or a response to Ukrainian threats, suggests the political complexities faced by countries balancing relations with Russia and the West. The US preparing new sanctions indicates continued international pressure, but the uncertainty regarding Trump's position adds a variable. The Ukrainian delegation at the UN raising awareness about POWs and war crimes is a diplomatic effort to garner support and pressure. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports Zelenskyy is threatening deputies who do not vote for the ratification of the minerals agreement with the US, framing it as a sign of pressure and lack of transparency surrounding the agreement. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy stated that foreign contingents can only arrive in Ukraine after the end of the war, indicating Ukraine's current position on the presence of foreign troops. ТАСС reports that Mirziyoyev and Putin discussed international agenda and strengthening bilateral relations via telephone. This indicates continued diplomatic engagement between Russia and Uzbekistan. ТАСС later reports that Shavkat Mirziyoyev confirmed his participation in the anniversary events in Moscow in honor of the 80th anniversary of Victory. Два майора shares a message from Dmitry Medvedev calling Zelenskyy's statement rejecting the 3-day ceasefire and not guaranteeing safety in Moscow a "verbal provocation" and threatening that if there is a real provocation on Victory Day, "no one guarantees that May 10 will come in Kyiv." This is a clear and direct escalation in Russian rhetoric and a significant threat. ТАСС reports Medvedev's statement calling Zelenskyy's threats a "verbal provocation" and stating that in case of a real provocation on Victory Day, no one guarantees that May 10 will come to Kyiv. This reinforces the severity of the Russian response to Zelenskyy's statements. Colonelcassad also reports on Medvedev's statement, mirroring the threats about May 10th in Kyiv. РБК-Україна reports that Zelenskyy believes the meeting in the Vatican influenced Trump's position, stating that Trump started to look at things a bit differently after their meeting. This provides Zelenskyy's perspective on the impact of his diplomatic engagement with Trump. Воин DV reports that the US State Department has approved the sale of equipment for F-16 support and pilot training to Ukraine for $310 million, noting that this is not free supply like under Biden and that Trump is gradually getting involved in continuing military aid, now for real money. They speculate that the trigger was the signing of the resource deal with Ukraine, and that the US might withdraw from stalled negotiations and provide military supplies on a commercial basis. This indicates a continuation of US military aid, albeit potentially under different terms, and links it to broader diplomatic and economic agreements. Colonelcassad discusses the public demand from Europe and Ukraine for a place at the negotiation table, arguing that under Trump, the US and Russia are discussing Ukraine's fate without Ukraine and Europe. He analyzes the EU foreign policy service's statement that Europe does not want to be a mediator but wants to supply weapons to Kyiv. This highlights the perceived exclusion of Ukraine and Europe from certain high-level discussions and the EU's stated focus on providing military support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares an interview with former CIA head Ralph Goff who states that the US was afraid to give Ukraine enough weapons to win, only enough to bleed, and that Biden and other partners delayed critical arms supplies due to Putin's nuclear rhetoric. Goff believes Ukraine started looking for asymmetric solutions due to the understanding that Western weapons would not be enough to win, citing the naval drone that shot down a Russian aircraft. He also mentions that he was not allowed to the highest position in the CIA due to Trump's position. This provides a critical perspective on Western military aid strategy and links it to Ukraine's development of asymmetric capabilities. РБК-Україна reports that Zelenskyy named two approaches being discussed regarding foreign contingents for Ukraine: one with a larger number of troops but without US support, and another with a smaller number but with involvement "if there is Article Five, because similar to Article Five" of NATO. Zelenskyy also emphasized that the strongest security guarantee is a strong Ukrainian army. This clarifies Ukraine's thinking on potential post-conflict security arrangements involving foreign military presence. ОТУ "Харків" shares a photo remembering James Ernest Mace, an American historian who informed the US and the world about the Holodomor, emphasizing historical narratives and international recognition. This is a Ukrainian information operation with a diplomatic and national identity component. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА discusses the US stance on NATO defense spending and its potential impact on European countries, suggesting pressure from Trump for increased spending and potential consequences for European economies and governments. This reflects on the political and economic pressures influencing European defense capabilities and potential future NATO dynamics. WarGonzo shares a quote from Putin stating he fights the desire to "hit someone," but suggests Putin should not hold back, likely in reference to the conflict. This is a form of political commentary from a Russian military blogger, framing Putin's actions and potentially advocating for a more aggressive approach.
• Cybersecurity and Information Assurance: Russian reports about alleged Ukrainian threats to attack the Victory Parade and Crimean Bridge contribute to a narrative of Ukrainian terrorism and justify enhanced security measures. The information operation attempting to link Ukrainian soldiers to Nazism through distorted imagery is a form of information warfare aimed at influencing perceptions. The Russian military blogger Fighterbomber using the death of a defecting Ukrainian pilot to undermine Ukraine's safety guarantees is another example of information warfare leveraging specific incidents. The Ukrainian information operation mocking Russian leadership and associating them with Nazism is a form of psychological warfare. Censorship within Russian educational institutions highlights efforts to control information and narratives domestically. РБК-Україна reports that British intelligence believes the Russian army is heading for a new record in losses on the front, estimating approximately 160,000 soldiers lost in the first four months of 2025, and noting that Russia has not achieved significant success despite these heavy losses. This is a significant piece of intelligence from a Western source highlighting Russian casualties and lack of decisive gains and will be used in information operations. РБК-Україна also includes a graphic from British intelligence showing Russian daily average losses from March 2022 to April 2025, indicating a rising trend in the latter half of 2024 and early 2025. This visual data supports the British intelligence assessment and is likely intended for public consumption and information warfare. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming a TCC in Lutsk detained a delivery worker during his shift, with a military commissar reportedly taking his bicycle. This highlights perceived aggressive recruitment practices in Ukraine and is likely intended to undermine support for mobilization. НгП раZVедка shares a video claiming the destruction of an American armored vehicle near Artemivsk with a drone, using derogatory and sarcastic language and including a call for Ukrainian soldiers to comply with traffic rules in Lviv. This is a clear example of Russian propaganda employing dehumanizing language and black humor to mock and demoralize the opponent. Fighterbomber shares a message from "Reporter Filatov" advising his subscribers not to read "this channel" because Sladkov refers to "fighter-bomber." This indicates internal information warfare among Russian military bloggers and concerns about information sources. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video claiming Ukrainian drone operators used magnets to place Ukrainian flags in Olesha, followed by claims that the settlement is under Ukrainian control and Russian forces have been driven out. The author dismisses this as a "Kursk adventure" that is more " brilliant" than previous Ukrainian operations and attributes them to the British. This highlights a Russian perspective on Ukrainian information operations and attempts to discredit their actions and link them to Western influence and incompetence. Старше Эдды claims Ukrainians burned another Orthodox church in Belgorod Oblast, reiterating the idea of a religious war and portraying the conflict as a fight against "demons." This is a strong example of religious framing in Russian propaganda. Военкор Котенок also reports on the drone attack on the church in Belgorod, labeling the attackers as "Ukrainian Satanists." This demonstrates the use of highly inflammatory and dehumanizing language in Russian information operations related to attacks on religious sites and can be seen as inciting hatred. ОТУ "Харків" shares a photo remembering James Ernest Mace, an American historian who informed the US and the world about the Holodomor, highlighting its recognition as a genocide. This is a Ukrainian information operation aimed at shaping historical narratives and garnering international sympathy. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares sarcastic content mocking Russian veterans and military, likely intended to be demoralizing propaganda. Полиция Хабаровского края shares a video promoting a series about letters from the front during WWII, framed within patriotic rhetoric. This is a Russian information operation aiming to reinforce historical narratives and national identity. Басурин о главном shares a video from RT featuring a deepfake of Winston Churchill, created using AI, reading a letter to Stalin with a quote emphasizing the Soviet army's contribution to defeating Germany in WWII. The accompanying text contrasts this with the current British government's stance on history and claims this is an effort to give a voice to someone who witnessed the "steadfastness of Soviet soldiers." This is a clear example of Russian state-backed information operation leveraging historical figures and AI technology to promote a specific narrative about WWII and the Russian role in it, likely aimed at influencing both domestic and international audiences and drawing parallels to the current conflict. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing body bags being loaded onto an IL transport plane in Orenburg and wounded Russian soldiers awaiting transport, with a sarcastic caption referencing the upcoming parade and the human cost of the war. This is a potent piece of Ukrainian information operation aimed at demoralizing Russian forces and highlighting their losses. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on Medvedev's reaction to Zelenskyy's statements regarding the May 9th ceasefire and safety guarantees in Moscow, quoting Medvedev's derogatory remarks and threats about May 10th in Kyiv. This highlights the escalated rhetoric and information warfare surrounding the upcoming symbolic date. Mash на Донбассе shares a video claiming Russian UAV operators are accompanying civilians during evacuation from Konstantynopol (Southern Donetsk Direction), framing it as protecting civilians from Ukrainian attacks. This demonstrates Russian efforts to control the narrative around civilian safety and attribute blame for endangering civilians to Ukraine. Colonelcassad, in the context of reporting on the damaged church in Belgorod Oblast, frames the incident as an intentional act by "Nazis" using drones to burn the church, linking it to previous incidents and suggesting it is intended to "create a negotiation background." This is a clear example of Russian propaganda using inflammatory language, attributing blame, and attempting to assign strategic intent to the attack on a religious site. Олександр Вілкул, Head of the Kryvyi Rih Defense Council, shares photos and a report on a city-wide beautification effort involving planting trees and cleaning parks, framing it as an act of "love for the native city" and highlighting community unity. While not directly military, this serves as a form of information operation showcasing resilience and a return to normalcy amidst the conflict. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video claiming Ukrainian special forces used a "heavy bomber" drone to destroy a group of Russian servicemen in Belgorod Oblast and that such operations disrupt Russian efforts to form offensive groups. This is a Ukrainian information operation highlighting claimed successful strikes on Russian territory and their perceived strategic impact.
• Humanitarian and Legal Aspects: The severe humanitarian impact of aerial attacks on civilians in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia remains a critical concern. The report of a Russian servicemember killing and injuring civilians in Kursk Oblast raises serious legal and ethical issues and highlights potential internal problems within the Russian military. The report on the detention of a servicemember in the LNR for killing fellow soldiers after refusing orders also underscores potential war crimes and severe discipline failures. The conflicting narratives surrounding the destruction and reopening of the Mariupol Drama Theater illustrate the ongoing efforts to control the historical narrative and potential lack of accountability for alleged war crimes. The Ukrainian delegation at the UN highlighting the inhuman conditions and war crimes against POWs emphasizes the legal and humanitarian dimensions of the conflict. The attack on civilians at a mobile shop in Bryansk Oblast highlights the continued targeting of civilian infrastructure and the resulting humanitarian impact. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація reports on ongoing efforts to address the consequences of enemy attacks, including providing building materials to residents, highlighting the logistical challenges and humanitarian support required. Photos shared by the Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration show ongoing construction and repair work on residential and hospital buildings, indicating efforts to restore damaged infrastructure. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports on the "eVidnovlennya" program providing compensation for damaged homes and certificates for destroyed housing in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and a regional program for families of fallen civilians. This highlights the significant humanitarian impact of the conflict and the efforts to provide support. Военкор Котенок, Дневник Десантника, and ТАСС report that a Ukrainian drone attacked the Church of George the Victorious in Tolokonnoe village, Belgorod Oblast, causing a fire in the domes, which was later extinguished. This highlights the continued targeting of civilian and potentially religious infrastructure in border regions and raises concerns about adherence to international humanitarian law regarding the protection of cultural and religious sites. ASTRA and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны also report on this incident, confirming the drone attack on the church in Belgorod Oblast and the resulting fire. Старше Эдды claims Ukrainians burned another Orthodox church in Belgorod Oblast, reiterating the idea of a religious war and portraying the conflict as a fight against "demons." This is a strong example of religious framing in Russian propaganda, potentially intended to justify actions and dehumanize the opponent. Военкор Котенок also reports on the drone attack on the church in Belgorod, labeling the attackers as "Ukrainian Satanists." This demonstrates the use of highly inflammatory and dehumanizing language in Russian information operations related to attacks on religious sites and can be seen as inciting hatred. РБК-Україна reports that Russia conducted a direct airstrike with an aerial bomb on a rescue unit in Kupiansk, sharing photos of the significant damage to the building. This highlights the targeting of essential civilian infrastructure and the potential impact on emergency response capabilities. ASTRA reports on the case of mobilized Russian soldier Dzatte Mamtov who, despite being deemed temporarily unfit for service due to significant injuries, was allegedly sent to assault operations, went missing, and whose bank card was allegedly used for financial transactions near Avdeevka. This report raises serious concerns about the treatment of injured soldiers, potential forced deployment, and alleged illicit financial activity, highlighting potential human rights abuses and internal military issues. Оперативний ЗСУ, citing a New York Times report, states that since the start of ceasefire negotiations in February, Russian strikes have intensified, leading to a significant increase in civilian casualties (848 killed or wounded in the first 24 days of April, a 46% increase compared to the same period last year). The report also notes a change in Russian tactics, focusing intense bombardment on single cities or towns for multiple nights, and reports over 2641 civilian casualties in the first three months of 2025. This information from a reputable source, cited by a Ukrainian channel, provides a significant assessment of the escalating humanitarian crisis and links it to recent diplomatic efforts. РБК-Україна reports on the detention of a serial killer in Kyiv who confessed to multiple murders. While not directly linked to the conflict, this highlights internal security issues within Ukraine. Mash на Донбассе shares a video claiming Russian UAV operators are accompanying civilians during evacuation from Konstantynopol (Southern Donetsk Direction), framing it as protecting civilians from Ukrainian attacks. This demonstrates Russian efforts to control the narrative around civilian safety and attribute blame for endangering civilians to Ukraine. Олександр Вілкул, Head of the Kryvyi Rih Defense Council, shares photos and a report on a city-wide beautification effort, highlighting community unity and resilience amidst the conflict. This serves as a form of information operation showcasing a return to normalcy and collective spirit. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація shares a video highlighting agricultural efforts in the Zaporizhzhia region despite the conflict, showcasing resilience and the importance of continued agricultural production in a frontline area. This is a form of information operation highlighting resilience and efforts to maintain vital sectors of the economy.
• Military Production and Losses: TASS reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have hit a Ukrainian ammunition plant. This, if confirmed, indicates Russian efforts to target Ukrainian military production capabilities. TASS reports on a Russian Ministry of Defense briefing claiming high Ukrainian losses across various groupings on the front lines (up to 170 in "Sever," over 220 in "West," over 235 in "South," up to 170 in "East," and up to 60 in "Dnepr") and destruction of various equipment, including an EW station, JDAM bombs, a HIMARS projectile, and 292 UAVs. These claimed figures provide insight into the intensity of the fighting and Russian estimates of Ukrainian attrition. Два майора reports a Russian Ministry of Defense briefing claiming eight Storm Shadow and three Neptune-MD missiles were shot down over Crimea overnight, and 23 Ukrainian unmanned boats were destroyed by the Black Sea Fleet. These figures highlight the scale of the Ukrainian deep strike effort and Russian counter-measures. Colonelcassad corroborates the Russian Ministry of Defense claims regarding the destruction of 23 Ukrainian unmanned boats and also claims Russian forces struck military airfield infrastructure, ammunition depots, and temporary deployment areas in 152 areas, and that air defense destroyed seven JDAMs, one HIMARS projectile, and 292 UAVs. Colonelcassad also details claimed Russian strikes on Ukrainian military and logistical targets in the DPR overnight, including temporary deployment points, a stabilization point, a field communications node, a field artillery depot, and repair/storage facilities in Slavyansk, claiming the destruction of vehicles, equipment (including Starlink), and ammunition (over 40 tons) and claimed casualties. This further reinforces the scale of reported aerial and naval activity and claimed Russian successes in defense and targeting. Сливочный каприз provides an update on claimed Russian daily and overall territorial advances (16.9 km² per day average, 67.6 km² total change from April 28 to May 1), offering a Russian perspective on the tempo of their offensive operations. РБК-Україна reports that British intelligence believes the Russian army is heading for a new record in losses on the front, estimating approximately 160,000 soldiers lost in the first four months of 2025, and noting that Russia has not achieved significant success despite these heavy losses. This is a significant piece of intelligence from a Western source highlighting Russian casualties and lack of decisive gains. РБК-Україна also includes a graphic from British intelligence showing Russian daily average losses from March 2022 to April 2025, indicating a rising trend in the latter half of 2024 and early 2025. This visual data supports the British intelligence assessment.** Colonelcassad reports that Russia lost a Su-30SM near Novorossiysk during the massive naval drone attack, and that both pilots survived and were evacuated. They also claim Russia lost 14 BECs (unmanned boats) and shot down 11 missiles (8 Storm Shadow and 3 Neptune-MD) during the night attack. This provides Russian claimed losses and successes during the recent attack. НгП раZVедка shares a video claiming the destruction of an American armored vehicle on the Artemivsk direction with a drone. This highlights Russian efforts to target Western-supplied equipment and their use of drones for this purpose. Воин DV reports that the US State Department has approved the sale of equipment for F-16 support and pilot training to Ukraine for $310 million. While not free supply, this indicates a continuation of US military aid, now on a commercial basis, addressing a key military need for Ukraine. ОТУ "Харків" shares a video claiming successful strikes by "Baba Yaga" drones on three enemy vehicles and three positions in Kharkiv Oblast. This indicates claimed Ukrainian successes in destroying Russian military equipment. Два майора shares a video claiming that drone operators from the 177th Separate Guards Marine Regiment of the Caspian Flotilla are destroying enemy personnel in Myropillia, Sumy Oblast. This indicates claimed Russian successes in inflicting personnel losses. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on a major corruption case within Ukraine's defense industry, with the SBU detaining leadership of a state defense enterprise and military representatives in connection with the supply of 120,000 unusable mortar rounds to the Armed Forces. This is a significant development regarding internal challenges and alleged corruption within Ukraine's defense procurement and production, with potential implications for military capabilities and morale.

Potential Future Developments

• Continued High-Intensity Ground Combat: Expect sustained intense fighting on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Novopavlivka, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Orikhiv, and Huliaipole axes, as indicated by the high number of combat engagements reported yesterday and today's updates. Localized Russian advances, particularly in areas mentioned by Russian sources like Novoalexandrovka and near Shevchenko on the Pokrovsk direction, and near Velyka Novosilka and on the Aleksandro-Kalinovo direction, are possible but will likely face strong Ukrainian resistance, potentially reinforced in key areas like Pokrovsk. Continued Russian aerial support (including KABs and unguided aerial missiles) and FPV drone use will remain significant factors in ground operations. Russian efforts on the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Siversk axes are likely to continue, but Ukrainian defenses appear to be holding in these areas based on recent reports of repelled attacks.
• Persistent and Potentially Escalated Russian Aerial Attacks: Russia is likely to continue large-scale drone and guided aerial bomb attacks across Ukraine, with a continued risk of high civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure, particularly in urban areas like Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia, and border regions like Sumy and Bryansk. The reported intensification of strikes since the start of ceasefire negotiations, leading to a significant increase in civilian casualties, suggests this trend may continue, potentially linked to diplomatic signaling. The use of thermobaric warheads indicates a deliberate choice of ordnance likely intended to maximize destructive impact. Expect continued targeting of military and civilian infrastructure across various oblasts, including essential services like rescue units. Weather conditions could impact aerial operations and civilian life in border regions. Russian claims of hitting Ukrainian ammunition plants suggest a focus on disrupting Ukrainian logistics and offensive capabilities. Attacks on religious sites in border regions, as seen in Belgorod, are likely to continue and be heavily used in Russian propaganda.
• Continued and Evolving Ukrainian Deep Strikes and Naval Drone Warfare: Ukraine is likely to continue large-scale combined unmanned and missile attacks on Crimea and Russian naval assets and infrastructure in the Black Sea and potentially other Russian territory. The confirmed capability to engage air targets with naval drones, if widely adopted, could represent a significant escalation and force changes in Russian air and naval tactics, potentially requiring Russia to modify their approach to counter-drone operations over the Black Sea. This new capability poses a direct threat to Russian air assets operating over the sea. Russian efforts to counter these attacks will continue, with both sides learning and adapting. The high number of claimed interceptions by Russia indicates their efforts to mitigate these strikes. Ukrainian attacks on civilian targets in border regions are also likely to continue based on recent reports.
• Increased Diplomatic Maneuvering and Uncertainties: The diplomatic landscape around potential peace negotiations remains fluid and complex. Zelenskyy's statements highlight potential challenges in maintaining international support after a ceasefire. Discussions with the US on key aid and resource agreements will continue to be crucial. The rejection of the 3-day ceasefire proposal by Ukraine and counter-proposal for a 30-day truce sets a different framework for potential de-escalation and indicates a lack of trust in short-term pauses. His refusal to guarantee the safety of leaders in Moscow on May 9th and statements about Ukraine not being responsible for events in Russia on that date are significant diplomatic signals, potentially intended to deter attendance or highlight the ongoing conflict and risk. The Serbian and Slovakian Presidents' sudden illnesses and canceled trips, linked by some to potential pressure to avoid the May 9th parade in Moscow or a response to Ukrainian threats, suggests the political complexities faced by countries balancing relations with Russia and the West. The US preparing new sanctions indicates continued international pressure, but the uncertainty regarding Trump's position adds a variable. The Ukrainian delegation at the UN raising awareness about POWs and war crimes is a diplomatic effort to garner support and pressure. The continuation of US military aid, albeit on a commercial basis, following the resource deal indicates a complex interplay between economic and military agreements. The perceived exclusion of Ukraine and Europe from some high-level discussions by Russia and the US could lead to increased diplomatic tensions. The critical perspective on Western military aid and its alleged limitations could influence future aid strategies and Ukraine's approach to developing its own capabilities. Ukraine's discussion of two approaches to foreign contingents signals thinking about post-conflict security models. Medvedev's direct rhetorical threats in response to Zelenskyy's May 9th statements indicate a significant escalation in political rhetoric and raise concerns about potential Russian actions. The discussion regarding the US stance on NATO defense spending highlights potential future dynamics within the alliance and pressure on European countries to increase their defense budgets.
• Highlighting of Internal Russian Issues and Potential Impact on Morale: Reports of severe discipline issues and potential criminal behavior among Russian military personnel, as seen in the Kursk and LNR incidents, could, if widespread, negatively impact Russian troop morale, cohesion, and public perception of the military. Continued reporting on these issues from both Russian and Ukrainian sources is probable. Concerns about censorship and internal social tensions could also be exacerbated by the conflict. Reports on migration and internal issues like the perception of Roma communities highlight potential social friction. The report on the alleged mistreatment of a mobilized soldier with severe injuries and alleged illicit financial activity raises serious questions about the welfare of soldiers, accountability within the military, and potential corruption, which could negatively impact morale and recruitment. The Ukrainian information operation highlighting Russian casualties and wounded soldiers being transported in body bags is directly aimed at impacting Russian morale.
• Intensified Information Warfare: Both sides will likely intensify information operations, particularly around the symbolic date of May 9th and in response to significant military events or diplomatic developments. This includes contesting narratives around historical events (like WWII and the Holodomor), showcasing military successes and valor (as seen in the Ukrainian profile of "Strazh" and the 49th Battalion and "Baba Yaga" drone videos), highlighting alleged enemy weaknesses or failures (like discipline issues, the death of a defecting pilot, and alleged mistreatment of soldiers), and using propaganda to influence domestic and international opinion. The framing of Ukrainian deep strikes as "terrorism" by Russian sources and Ukrainian efforts to mock Russian leadership are likely to continue. The London parade participation will be a point of focus for competing narratives. Fundraising efforts being highlighted by both sides demonstrate the importance of public support and resources. The official confirmation of the Su-30 downing by a naval drone will likely be heavily utilized by Ukraine in their information operations to highlight their innovative capabilities and effectiveness. Russian military bloggers emphasizing donations highlight the need for public support and potentially shortcomings in official supply. British intelligence assessments of Russian losses will be used by Ukraine and Western partners to highlight the human cost of the Russian offensive and their lack of significant gains. Russian reports on Ukrainian recruitment practices aim to undermine support for mobilization. The use of derogatory language and black humor in Russian propaganda targeting Ukrainian forces and Western equipment is likely to continue. Information operations regarding flag placements, as seen in Olesha, will be used to contest control of territory. The religious framing of the conflict and dehumanization of the opponent in Russian propaganda, particularly in response to attacks on religious sites, is likely to escalate. Internal information warfare among Russian military bloggers, as indicated by Filatov's message, may continue. Ukrainian information operations focusing on historical injustices like the Holodomor serve to reinforce national identity and garner international sympathy. Sarcastic propaganda from both sides, like the content shared by Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 and Alex Parker Returns, is likely to continue to mock and demoralize the opponent. The use of AI in propaganda videos, as seen with the deepfake of Winston Churchill, indicates the increasing sophistication of Russian information operations. The Ukrainian video highlighting Russian casualties and wounded soldiers being transported in body bags is a potent piece of psychological warfare. Russian attempts to frame their actions as protecting civilians, as seen with the video of UAV operators accompanying evacuations, will continue. Russian framing of attacks on religious sites as intentional acts by "Nazis" is likely to continue. Information operations highlighting resilience and a return to normalcy in Ukrainian cities, like the beautification report from Kryvyi Rih, will be used to counter narratives of devastation. Ukrainian claims of successful strikes on Russian territory and their strategic impact will be highlighted. Ukrainian reports on internal security matters, like the serial killer detention, can serve to highlight ongoing efforts to maintain order.
• Focus on Attrition and Resource Management: The high reported daily losses for Russia, coupled with ongoing intense combat and the need for military aid and resources on both sides, underscore the continued focus on attrition warfare and the importance of logistics and resource management. Discussions around military procurement issues, even in other countries, highlight the broader context of resource needs in modern conflict. The alleged crack down on fundraising for foreign armies in the UK and the reported difficulties in collecting donations for Russian forces highlight the challenges of securing resources outside of official channels. The confirmed US commercial arms sale for F-16 support indicates a continuation of US military aid, albeit under different terms, and underscores the continued flow of resources to Ukraine. Russian claimed strikes on Ukrainian logistical nodes highlight their efforts to disrupt the flow of resources to the front lines. The ongoing repair and reconstruction efforts in Zaporizhzhia highlight the significant resources required to address the humanitarian impact of the conflict. Fundraising efforts by both Russian and Ukrainian military bloggers for specific equipment, like drones and armored kits, demonstrate the reliance on public support and the ongoing need for resources at the unit level. The alleged major corruption case in Ukraine's defense industry highlights a significant internal challenge to resource management and military production.
• Humanitarian and Legal Aspects: The severe humanitarian impact of aerial attacks on civilians in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia remains a critical concern. The reported intensification of Russian strikes since February, leading to a significant increase in civilian casualties, exacerbates this crisis. The report of a Russian servicemember killing and injuring civilians in Kursk Oblast raises serious legal and ethical issues and highlights potential internal problems within the Russian military. The report on the detention of a servicemember in the LNR for killing fellow soldiers after refusing orders also underscores potential war crimes and severe discipline failures. The conflicting narratives surrounding the destruction and reopening of the Mariupol Drama Theater illustrate the ongoing efforts to control the historical narrative and potential lack of accountability for alleged war crimes. The Ukrainian delegation at the UN highlighting the inhuman conditions and war crimes against POWs emphasizes the legal and humanitarian dimensions of the conflict. The attack on civilians at a mobile shop in Bryansk Oblast highlights the continued targeting of civilian infrastructure and the resulting humanitarian impact. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація reports on ongoing efforts to address the consequences of enemy attacks, including providing building materials to residents, highlighting the logistical challenges and humanitarian support required. Photos shared by the Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration show ongoing construction and repair work on residential and hospital buildings, indicating efforts to restore damaged infrastructure. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports on the "eVidnovlennya" program providing compensation for damaged homes and certificates for destroyed housing in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and a regional program for families of fallen civilians. This highlights the significant humanitarian impact of the conflict and the efforts to provide support. Военкор Котенок, Дневник Десантника, and ТАСС report that a Ukrainian drone attacked the Church of George the Victorious in Tolokonnoe village, Belgorod Oblast, causing a fire in the domes, which was later extinguished. This highlights the continued targeting of civilian and potentially religious infrastructure in border regions and raises concerns about adherence to international humanitarian law regarding the protection of cultural and religious sites. ASTRA and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны also report on this incident, confirming the drone attack on the church in Belgorod Oblast and the resulting fire. Старше Эдды claims Ukrainians burned another Orthodox church in Belgorod Oblast, reiterating the idea of a religious war and portraying the conflict as a fight against "demons." This is a strong example of religious framing in Russian propaganda, potentially intended to justify actions and dehumanize the opponent. Военкор Котенок also reports on the drone attack on the church in Belgorod, labeling the attackers as "Ukrainian Satanists." This demonstrates the use of highly inflammatory and dehumanizing language in Russian information operations related to attacks on religious sites and can be seen as inciting hatred. РБК-Україна reports that Russia conducted a direct airstrike with an aerial bomb on a rescue unit in Kupiansk, sharing photos of the significant damage. This highlights the targeting of essential civilian infrastructure and the potential for disrupting emergency services, which is a violation of international humanitarian law. ASTRA reports on the case of mobilized Russian soldier Dzatte Mamtov who, despite being deemed temporarily unfit for service due to significant injuries, was allegedly sent to assault operations, went missing, and whose bank card was allegedly used for financial transactions near Avdeevka. This report raises serious concerns about the treatment of injured soldiers, potential forced deployment, and alleged illicit financial activity, highlighting potential human rights abuses and internal military issues. Оперативний ЗСУ, citing a New York Times report, states that since the start of ceasefire negotiations in February, Russian strikes have intensified, leading to a significant increase in civilian casualties (848 killed or wounded in the first 24 days of April, a 46% increase compared to the same period last year). The report also notes a change in Russian tactics, focusing intense bombardment on single cities or towns for multiple nights, and reports over 2641 civilian casualties in the first three months of 2025. This information from a reputable source, cited by a Ukrainian channel, provides a significant assessment of the escalating humanitarian crisis and links it to recent diplomatic efforts. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on a major corruption case within Ukraine's defense industry regarding the supply of 120,000 unusable mortar rounds, with SBU detentions. This raises significant concerns about accountability and potential negligence impacting military effectiveness and potentially endangering soldiers. Mash на Донбассе shares a video claiming Russian UAV operators are accompanying civilians during evacuation from Konstantynopol (Southern Donetsk Direction), framing it as protecting civilians from Ukrainian attacks. This demonstrates Russian efforts to control the narrative around civilian safety and attribute blame for endangering civilians to Ukraine. Олександр Вілкул, Head of the Kryvyi Rih Defense Council, shares photos and a report on a city-wide beautification effort, highlighting community unity and resilience amidst the conflict. This showcases efforts to maintain a sense of normalcy and community well-being despite the ongoing threat. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація shares a video highlighting agricultural efforts in the Zaporizhzhia region despite the conflict, showcasing resilience and the importance of continued agricultural production in a frontline area. This highlights efforts to maintain economic activity and support the population despite the humanitarian impact.

Potential Future Developments

• Continued High-Intensity Ground Combat: Expect sustained and possibly escalated fighting on the main axes of Russian offensive operations, particularly Pokrovsk, Lyman, Novopavlivka, and Kursk, and continued activity on the Kursk direction. Localized Russian advances, particularly in areas mentioned by Russian sources like Novoalexandrovka and near Shevchenko on the Pokrovsk direction, and near Velyka Novosilka and on the Aleksandro-Kalinovo direction, are possible but will likely face strong Ukrainian resistance, potentially reinforced in key areas like Pokrovsk. Continued Russian aerial support (including KABs and unguided aerial missiles) and FPV drone use will remain significant factors in ground operations. Russian efforts on the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Siversk axes are likely to continue, but Ukrainian defenses appear to be holding in these areas based on recent reports of repelled attacks.
• Persistent and Potentially Escalated Russian Aerial Attacks: Russia is likely to continue large-scale drone and guided aerial bomb attacks across Ukraine, potentially adapting tactics and targeting based on operational outcomes and diplomatic signaling. The reported intensification of strikes since February suggests this trend may continue, with a continued risk of high civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure. The use of thermobaric warheads suggests a deliberate choice of ordnance likely intended to maximize destructive impact. Expect continued targeting of military and civilian infrastructure across various oblasts, including essential services like rescue units. Weather conditions could impact aerial operations and civilian life in border regions. Russian claims of hitting Ukrainian ammunition plants suggest a focus on disrupting Ukrainian logistics and offensive capabilities. Attacks on religious sites in border regions, as seen in Belgorod, are likely to continue and be heavily used in Russian propaganda.
• Continued Ukrainian Unmanned Attacks on Crimea and Russian Territory: Ukraine is likely to continue large-scale and potentially evolving drone and unmanned boat attacks on Crimea, Russian naval assets and infrastructure in the Black Sea, and potentially other Russian territory, including border regions. The confirmed capability to engage air targets with naval drones, if widely adopted, could represent a significant escalation and force changes in Russian air and naval tactics, potentially requiring Russia to modify their approach to counter-drone operations over the Black Sea. This new capability poses a direct threat to Russian air assets operating over the sea. Russian efforts to counter these attacks will continue, with both sides learning and adapting. The high number of claimed interceptions by Russia indicates their efforts to mitigate these strikes. Ukrainian attacks on civilian targets in border regions are also likely to continue based on recent reports.
• Evolution of Diplomatic Landscape: The shifting US stance on mediation and potential for secondary sanctions could influence the dynamics of potential peace negotiations and international pressure on Russia. Medvedev's direct rhetorical threats regarding May 9th in Kyiv mark a significant escalation in the political dimension of the conflict. The continuation of US military aid, albeit on a commercial basis, following the resource deal indicates a complex interplay between economic and military agreements and could influence future aid strategies. The perceived exclusion of Ukraine and Europe from some high-level discussions could lead to increased diplomatic tensions. Ukraine's discussion of two approaches to foreign contingents signals thinking about post-conflict security models. Diplomatic engagements, like the confirmed attendance of Uzbekistan's president at the May 9th parade in Moscow, will continue. The discussion regarding the US stance on NATO defense spending could influence future dynamics within the alliance and pressure on European countries. The reported intensification of Russian strikes since the start of ceasefire talks suggests that periods of diplomatic engagement may correlate with increased military activity.
• Highlighting of Internal Russian Issues and Potential Impact on Morale: Reports of severe discipline issues and potential criminal behavior among Russian military personnel could, if widespread, negatively impact Russian troop morale, cohesion, and public perception of the military. Continued reporting on these issues from both Russian and Ukrainian sources is probable. Concerns about censorship and internal social tensions could also be exacerbated by the conflict. The report on the alleged mistreatment of a mobilized soldier with severe injuries and alleged illicit financial activity raises serious questions about the welfare of soldiers, accountability within the military, and potential corruption, which could negatively impact morale and recruitment. Ukrainian information operations highlighting Russian casualties and wounded being transported in body bags are likely to continue.
• Intensified Information Warfare: Both sides will likely intensify information operations, particularly around the symbolic date of May 9th and in response to significant military events or diplomatic developments. This includes contesting narratives around historical events, showcasing military successes and valor, highlighting alleged enemy weaknesses, using propaganda to influence domestic and international opinion, and employing psychological warfare tactics. The official confirmation of the Su-30 downing by a naval drone will likely be heavily utilized by Ukraine in their information operations. Russian military bloggers emphasizing donations highlight the need for public support and potentially shortcomings in official supply. British intelligence assessments of Russian losses will be used by Ukraine and Western partners. Russian reports on Ukrainian recruitment practices aim to undermine support for mobilization. The use of derogatory language and black humor in Russian propaganda is likely to continue. Information operations regarding flag placements will be used to contest control of territory. The religious framing of the conflict and dehumanization of the opponent in Russian propaganda is likely to escalate. Internal information warfare among Russian military bloggers may continue. Ukrainian information operations focusing on historical narratives and highlighting alleged Russian war crimes will continue. Sarcastic propaganda from both sides is likely to continue. The use of AI in propaganda videos is likely to increase. Russian attempts to control narratives around civilian safety will continue.
• Focus on Attrition and Resource Management: The high reported daily losses for Russia, coupled with ongoing intense combat and the need for military aid and resources on both sides, underscore the continued focus on attrition warfare and the importance of logistics and resource management. Discussions around military procurement issues highlight the broader context of resource needs. The alleged crack down on fundraising for foreign armies and difficulties in collecting donations for Russian forces highlight challenges in securing resources outside of official channels. The confirmed US commercial arms sale for F-16 support indicates a shift in how aid might be provided but underscores the continued flow of resources to Ukraine. Russian claimed strikes on Ukrainian logistical nodes highlight their efforts to disrupt the flow of resources to the front lines. The ongoing repair and reconstruction efforts highlight the significant resources required to address the humanitarian impact of the conflict. Fundraising efforts by military bloggers and volunteers on both sides for specific equipment are likely to continue and be highlighted. The alleged major corruption case in Ukraine's defense industry could significantly impact the supply of ammunition and highlight systemic issues.
• Humanitarian and Legal Aspects: The severe humanitarian impact of aerial attacks on civilians, including attacks on essential services like rescue units, remains a critical concern. The reported intensification of Russian strikes and resulting increase in civilian casualties underscores the ongoing humanitarian crisis. Reports of potential war crimes and severe discipline failures within the Russian military continue to emerge. The ongoing efforts to document alleged war crimes and raise international awareness remain crucial. The report on the alleged mistreatment of a mobilized soldier with severe injuries and alleged illicit financial activity highlights potential human rights abuses within the Russian military system. Ongoing repair and humanitarian support efforts will continue to be necessary. Reports on internal security matters in Ukraine, like the serial killer detention, while not directly military, reflect on the broader societal impact of the conflict. Efforts to maintain agricultural production in frontline areas highlight the importance of sustaining civilian life and economic activity.

Potential Indicators

• Independent confirmation or refutation of claimed territorial changes or significant gains on any of the active fronts, particularly Pokrovsk, Lyman, Novopavlivka, and Kursk, including near Velyka Novosilka and on the Aleksandro-Kalinovo direction. Visual evidence (geolocated footage) is crucial. Reports from specific Ukrainian units on their engagements and successes.
• Further details, independent verification, or investigation reports regarding attacks on civilian infrastructure, including rescue units and religious sites in border regions, and any resulting casualties. Any changes in the nature or location of targeted infrastructure. Continued reporting on civilian casualties, particularly any confirmation of the trends reported by the New York Times.
• Observable changes in the intensity, targeting, or types of Russian aerial attacks, particularly the use of guided aerial bombs and the routes and concentrations of drone activity. Reports of effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense and counter-drone activities.
• Further reports or visual evidence of the impact of Ukrainian drone and unmanned boat attacks on Crimea and Russian naval assets, including any confirmed damage to airfields or vessels. Any changes in Russian air or naval tactics in the Black Sea in response to the claimed naval drone-to-air engagement.
• Any official statements or significant developments in diplomatic efforts related to peace negotiations, including any concrete proposals from either side or changes in the US or EU stance. Any impact of Medvedev's rhetorical threats on the political situation or subsequent actions. Confirmation of attendance or absence of other world leaders at the May 9th parade in Moscow. Any further discussions or actions related to the US stance on NATO defense spending.
• Significant changes in the reported daily loss figures for either side, particularly sustained increases or decreases in specific categories like personnel, artillery, or armored vehicles. Independent assessments of losses from Western intelligence sources, and any further reports similar to the British intelligence assessment.
• Reports or evidence of increased counter-intelligence activity or arrests related to alleged agent networks or sabotage attempts in Ukraine. Reports on internal security matters in Ukraine, such as the serial killer detention.
• Any observable impact of US or EU sanctions on the Russian economy or military production. Details and impact of the US commercial arms sale for F-16 support and pilot training.
• Increased or decreased information operations from either side, including new propaganda themes, significant media campaigns, or alleged false flag operations, particularly around May 9th. Any observable impact of information operations regarding flag placements in contested areas. Continuation of internal information warfare among Russian military bloggers. Continued use of AI in propaganda videos. Russian efforts to control narratives around civilian safety. Ukrainian efforts to highlight resilience.
• Further reports or investigations into alleged internal issues in Russia, such as discipline failures, criminal behavior among military personnel, censorship, and social tensions. Any official response to the report on the alleged mistreatment of a mobilized soldier and alleged illicit financial activity.
• Reports on the progress of fundraising efforts for military units and the acquisition and deployment of the requested equipment. Any impact of claimed Russian strikes on Ukrainian logistical nodes. Continuation of repair and reconstruction efforts in affected areas of Ukraine. Any developments in the alleged major corruption case in Ukraine's defense industry.
• Any observable impact of the confirmed attendance of Uzbekistan's president at the May 9th parade in Moscow on regional dynamics.
• Further details and outcomes of investigations into alleged war crimes and efforts to apprehend suspects. Continued reporting on humanitarian aid efforts and the state of agricultural production in frontline areas.

Operational Summary

The conflict is characterized by high-intensity ground engagements on key eastern and southern axes, with Russia maintaining offensive pressure and claiming localized gains while incurring significant casualties. Russia continues a massive campaign of aerial and artillery strikes across Ukraine, causing widespread damage to civilian and military infrastructure and resulting in civilian casualties, with reports suggesting an intensification of strikes since recent diplomatic efforts began. Ukraine is actively defending against these assaults and conducting its own deep strike operations, notably a large-scale combined attack on Crimea and Novorossiysk, with a significant development being the claimed successful engagement of a Russian Su-30 aircraft by a naval drone, showcasing Ukrainian innovation in naval warfare. Diplomatic efforts are ongoing but remain challenging, with tensions rising around the symbolic date of May 9th due to conflicting ceasefire proposals and rhetorical threats. Information operations are highly active on both sides, seeking to influence narratives and public opinion, particularly concerning military successes, casualties, and the legitimacy of actions, with increasing sophistication seen in the use of AI for propaganda. Internal challenges within both Russia (discipline issues, alleged corruption) and Ukraine (resource needs, alleged corruption in the defense industry) continue to impact the conflict. The humanitarian impact of the conflict remains severe, with ongoing efforts to provide aid and support to affected populations amidst continued attacks on civilian infrastructure and vital sectors like agriculture. The continuation of US military aid, even on a commercial basis, remains a critical factor for Ukraine's ability to sustain its defense. The alleged major corruption case in Ukraine's defense industry is a significant internal challenge with potential implications for military capabilities.