Sitrep 2025-05-03 06:20:46

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 3, 2025, 06:18 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational picture is dominated by a massive combined Ukrainian unmanned attack on Crimea and Sevastopol, coupled with significant Russian aerial activity targeting various Ukrainian oblasts. Ground combat remains intense on key axes, particularly Pokrovsk. Russian sources claim high numbers of intercepted Ukrainian drones, missiles, and unmanned boats. Both sides are actively engaged in information operations. Geopolitical developments, including discussions around US sanctions and international commemorations, continue to unfold.

Key updates and analysis:

Massive Combined Ukrainian Unmanned Attack on Crimea and Sevastopol: Multiple sources report a large-scale Ukrainian UAV attack on occupied Crimea and Sevastopol overnight. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims 121 Ukrainian drones were destroyed, including 96 over Crimea, 23 over the Black Sea, and one over the Sea of Azov. Additionally, they claim to have destroyed 8 Storm Shadow and 3 Neptune-MD missiles over the Black Sea and 14 unmanned boats in the Black Sea. Ukrainian sources claim attacks on airfields of Novofedorivka, Belbek, Kacha, and Gvardeyske. Russian military bloggers reported the attack involved both drones and unmanned boats, some reportedly equipped with MLRS guides, operating near offshore gas platforms. The air raid alert in Sevastopol reportedly lasted for a significant portion of the night. Два майора shares videos purportedly showing combat control from a naval Spetsnaz unit in Crimea during the night, focused on organizing and creating conditions for combat work and destroying enemy unmanned boats attacking positions from the sea. ASTRA and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны also report the Russian MoD claims of intercepted drones, Storm Shadow and Neptune-MD missiles, and unmanned boats over the Black Sea and regions of Russia. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reiterates the Russian MoD claims of intercepted drones, missiles, and unmanned boats, including specific numbers over various Russian regions. Colonelcassad reports the Russian MoD claim of 170 drones shot down over Russia, with 95 over Crimea, and notes civilian casualties and damage in Novorossiysk and damage in Anapa.
Continued Widespread and Evolving Russian Drone Activity: Numerous groups of "Shahed" and other UAVs continue to be reported across Kharkiv, Poltava, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv Oblasts, with detailed updates on drone movements indicating ongoing Russian targeting efforts. The Ukrainian Air Force continues to provide updated information on numerous "Shahed" groups across multiple oblasts with specified directions, including Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Mykolaiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Kirovohrad. New groups are reported from Belgorod Oblast towards Kharkiv. Updates specify Shahed movements towards Zhytomyr Oblast from western Kyiv Oblast, towards Cherkasy from central and western Poltava Oblast, westward from southeastern Kirovohrad Oblast, and towards Mykolaiv city from central Mykolaiv Oblast. These detailed reports provide critical real-time situational awareness. The air raid threat continues in several regions. Explosions have been reported in Cherkasy and Mykolaiv, with Ukrainian forces claiming successful interceptions in Mykolaiv. Further detailed updates on drone activity in Mykolaiv indicate some drones are maneuvering near the city and potentially targeting the Ingulsky Bridge and areas like Varvarovka, Zavodsky, and Central districts, highlighting the ongoing threat to urban infrastructure. Updated information on drone locations includes areas near Voznesensk, Pivdennoukrainsk, Bashtanka, Dolynska, Smila, Borodianka, Kremenets, and Poltava, and drone transfers between Poltava and Cherkasy Oblasts and from Kryvorizky district to Mykolaiv Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports Shaheds in central Kyiv Oblast are heading towards the capital, leading to an air raid alert in Kyiv. Shaheds in northern Mykolaiv Oblast are heading south. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a drone is approaching Kyiv from the south. Explosions have been heard in Kyiv. Air defense is working in Kyiv. The air raid alert in Kyiv has been canceled. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the threat of strike UAVs has ended for all of Ukraine, but activity of enemy tactical aviation on the northeastern direction remains, with a threat of aviation weapons for frontline oblasts. The head of the Mykolaiv Oblast Military Administration reports that industrial infrastructure was hit in Mykolaiv City by a Shahed drone attack around 03:55 on May 3rd, with no casualties, and details various FPV and strike drone attacks in Mykolaiv Raion on May 2nd, also without casualties. The head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration reports that four Russian drones were shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight and that the enemy attacked Nikopol Raion with FPV drones and artillery without casualties. (Operational Status: Resolved)
Confirmed Ukrainian Drone Attack on Crimea and Rostov Oblast with Damage: Russian sources confirm Ukraine is attacking Crimea, with the Crimean Bridge temporarily closed and explosions reported near Kerch. They also report a large drone attack on Crimea, Krasnodar Krai, and Rostov Oblast, with one impact reported in Rostov Oblast causing a fire after a downed UAV crashed. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports houses burning in Rostov Oblast due to falling debris from intercepted drones in several districts. ASTRA reports that roofs of houses caught fire in Tselina village, Rostov Oblast, due to falling debris from intercepted drones, with two adults and two children evacuated from one house. This provides concrete evidence of civilian infrastructure damage as a result of the Ukrainian attack. STERNENKO shares videos and photos purportedly from Russians showing air defense repelling the attack in Rostov Oblast, with imagery of a structure on fire. ASTRA also shares video of a fire in Taman, Krasnodar Krai, reportedly after a UAV attack. This indicates a potential escalation of Ukrainian deep strikes into Russian territory with observable impacts. STERNENKO shares additional video from Taman, Krasnodar Krai, reporting fires due to falling debris. TASS reports that debris from a UAV caused damage to a house and fire in Taman. This further confirms the impact in this area. ASTRA and TASS report that falling debris from Ukrainian drones has damaged three private houses in Anapa, Krasnodar Krai, with no reported casualties. This extends the confirmed impact areas in Krasnodar Krai. ASTRA shares videos and photos showing the damaged homes in Anapa and a damaged drone wing with "ASAP ARMY OF DRONES" and a "НЕ БРАТИСЯ" (Do not touch) sticker, confirming the use of Ukrainian "Army of Drones" assets and indicating potential drone losses. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares videos and photos reporting explosions and fires in occupied Crimea and Krasnodar Krai during the night. AV БогомаZ reports that eight Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs were detected and destroyed over Bryansk Oblast last night, with no casualties or damage. Colonelcassad reports civilian casualties and damage in Novorossiysk and damage in Anapa from Ukrainian drone attacks.
Reported Attack on Novorossiysk with Civilian Infrastructure Damage and Casualties: ASTRA reports powerful explosions in Novorossiysk, with local residents reporting them. TASS reports, citing the head of Novorossiysk, that air defense is repelling an attack by drones and unmanned boats in the water area near the city. This suggests a combined Ukrainian attack targeting this key port city. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны confirms the attack on Novorossiysk with unmanned boats and UAVs, citing the Kuban operational headquarters, and reports that debris from downed UAVs caused fires in the Temryuk district of Krasnodar Krai. This reinforces the nature and impact of the attack. ASTRA shares photos from Novorossiysk showing damaged apartments in two multi-story buildings, the Aurora and Kristall residential complexes, due to the UAV attack. This provides visual confirmation of civilian infrastructure damage in Novorossiysk. ASTRA reports that public transport is temporarily suspended in Novorossiysk after the night's massive attack, citing local media. This indicates a direct impact on civilian life and infrastructure from the attack. TASS reports that according to the governor, three multi-apartment buildings were damaged in Novorossiysk due to the UAV attack, and four people were injured. TASS reports that debris from UAVs damaged three reservoirs at a grain terminal in Novorossiysk and firefighters are extinguishing the fire. Два майора provides details from the head of Novorossiysk, confirming the massive attack, damage to three multi-story buildings and three reservoirs at a grain terminal, and four injuries (two adults and two children). Два майора also shares a photo of a damaged building in Novorossiysk, reiterating that three buildings were damaged and four people injured. Russian military bloggers claim a Russian aircraft was hit by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk yesterday, with the crew successfully rescued by a civilian vessel, and provide further details on the combined Ukrainian attack on Novorossiysk involving over three dozen unmanned boats of various types (including those carrying FPV drones and MANPADS) and dozens of drones from the Odesa area. They also reiterate details from the head of Novorossiysk regarding the damages and casualties in the city. Two Russian military bloggers provide further details on the claimed hit on a Russian aircraft by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk, stating the crew ejected and were rescued by a civilian vessel, and discuss the challenges of countering unmanned boats with aviation and the tactics of using unmanned boats with PVO and FPV drones. The head of Novorossiysk confirms the massive attack with drones, unmanned boats, and cruise missiles, reporting damage to three multi-story buildings and a grain terminal, and four injuries, while stating the threat of UAVs remains and air defense is still working. Russian military bloggers continue to share images and videos from Novorossiysk showing damaged buildings and reiterate the danger to civilians and the need to report fragments of ordnance. ASTRA shares a video reportedly showing the moment of an explosion at the Kristall-5 residential complex in Novorossiysk. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video claiming that Russian air defense in Novorossiysk was shooting down drones among multi-story buildings, implying a risk to civilian structures from Russian air defense actions. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video highlighting that the Ukrainian attack struck residential buildings in Novorossiysk, citing the governor's report of damaged buildings and casualties. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports four civilian casualties, including two children, and damage to three multi-apartment buildings and three grain terminal reservoirs in Novorossiysk due to the UAV attack, also noting damage to three private houses in Anapa.
Reported Attack on Crimean Bridge: ASTRA reports that residents of Crimea are reporting an attack on the Crimean Bridge and that the bridge is temporarily closed. ASTRA also shares video allegedly from annexed Crimea, although the authenticity is unconfirmed. This indicates a potential major Ukrainian strike targeting a key logistical and symbolic target.
Reported Ballistic Missile Threat from the South: РБК-Україна and Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have issued warnings about the threat of ballistic missile launches from the south. A subsequent update indicates the threat has passed. This highlights the continued risk of ballistic missile strikes against southern Ukraine. (Operational Status: Resolved)
Reported Activity of Russian Tactical Aviation: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of Russian tactical aviation in the northeastern and southeastern directions and warns of the threat of aviation weapon use for frontline oblasts. This indicates potential for guided or unguided aerial bomb strikes or other aerial attacks. The Ukrainian Air Force reiterates the activity of Russian tactical aviation in the northeastern and southeastern directions and the threat of aviation weapon use for frontline oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that activity of enemy tactical aviation on the northeastern direction remains, with a threat of aviation weapons for frontline oblasts.
Claims of Russian Success on Pokrovsk Direction: A Russian military blogger's video with a caption suggests that the Ukrainian 425th Separate Assault Battalion "Skala" is being "defeated" on the Pokrovsk direction. This aligns with previous reports of intense fighting on this front and indicates potential Russian localized gains. Colonelcassad shares a video purportedly showing Russian drone operators and artillery destroying Ukrainian positions and manpower on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. TASS reports, citing the head of the "Center" grouping press center, that Ukrainian forces lost over 390 military personnel in the last day due to the actions of this grouping, which is operating on the Pokrovsk direction. This provides a specific claimed casualty figure for Ukrainian forces on this highly active front. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 83 combat engagements on the Pokrovsk direction in the last 24 hours, with attacks repelled in various settlements. This confirms the intensity of fighting on this axis and provides details on the locations of engagements. Colonelcassad claims Russian forces are consistently holding the initiative on the Krasnoarmeysky and Dzerzhinsky directions after repelling counterattacks in March and April, with the situation developing most successfully east of the agglomeration in the Krasnoarmeysky area and increased pressure towards Kleban-Byk in the Dzerzhinsky area.
Russian Troop Redeployment: A Russian military expert claims that forces previously engaged in Kursk Oblast have been redeployed to reinforce the Kharkiv direction. This suggests a shift in Russian operational focus and potentially an increase in ground combat activity in the Kharkiv area. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 6 combat engagements on the Kharkiv direction in the last 24 hours, with attacks in the areas of Vovchansk and Kamyanka. This confirms ongoing fighting in this area, although the number of engagements reported is lower than some other directions.
Information Operations and Domestic Narratives: Russian sources continue to engage in information operations, including sharing videos purportedly showing Russian airborne forces striking Ukrainian positions in the Kherson direction. Alex Parker Returns shares a video and narrative focusing on an alleged jewelry store robbery in Riga by individuals speaking Ukrainian, framing it within a negative narrative about Ukrainians in Europe. This suggests ongoing efforts to portray Ukrainians negatively and highlight perceived societal issues. Alex Parker Returns also comments on alleged Israeli airstrikes on Turkish proxies in Syria, linking it to past Russian-Turkish interactions and suggesting a shift in alliances. TASS reports on a peaceful civilian fatality from an Israeli airstrike near Damascus, and later reports US forces are withdrawing from two bases in Syria. These reports are part of broader geopolitical narratives being disseminated by Russian state media and associated channels. Colonelcassad shares images and information about the Czech RG-4 offensive hand grenade, noting its presence in the conflict zone, likely for informational purposes regarding captured or used equipment. Colonelcassad also disseminates information related to the 80th anniversary of Victory in WWII, highlighting historical Tupolev aircraft like the TB-3, SB, TB-7 (Pe-8), and Tu-2 as part of a special project "Tupolev. Victory Aircraft," likely as part of a broader information operation in the lead-up to Victory Day. This reinforces the use of historical narratives in current information operations. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны promotes a new music album "Victory Music" featuring Russian artists performing patriotic songs, likely as part of information operations and cultural mobilization efforts tied to Victory Day. Colonelcassad shares a video purportedly showing a Russian serviceman who returned from captivity discussing alleged torture and mistreatment by Ukrainian forces and the SBU. This is framed as evidence from a "International public tribunal on the crimes of Ukrainian neo-Nazis," indicating a targeted information operation aimed at promoting a specific narrative about the treatment of Russian prisoners of war. TASS reports that scammers are now forging traffic violation fines, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. This indicates an internal Russian issue related to cybersecurity and fraud, likely being reported for public awareness and to portray efforts against crime. Colonelcassad shares a video purportedly showing Russian drone operators of the "Vostok" grouping destroying Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones on the Southern Donetsk direction. TASS reports that Wylsacom, a well-known tech blogger, owes 2.5 million rubles in taxes according to law enforcement. This is another example of reporting on internal Russian issues. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video with a "Good morning" message, referencing going off duty or continuing work and enjoying the weekend, and asking for suggestions for good Soviet WWII films in the lead-up to Victory Day. This reinforces the ongoing information operation related to the 80th anniversary of WWII victory. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video with a mocking tone regarding the situation in Bakhmut, framing the presence of Ukrainian forces as celebrating in ruins. ТАСС shares videos and photos of the "Immortal Regiment" action in Beijing with hundreds of Russian and Chinese citizens participating, reinforcing historical narratives and international partnerships. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares videos with the caption "Psychosis of the victory bearer is gaining momentum," likely a commentary on Russian Victory Day preparations and associated information operations. РБК-Україна shares AI-generated images of Donald Trump as the Pope, which is not directly related to military operations but is a political commentary. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares photos showing estimated enemy losses, likely for morale and information purposes. ASTRA shares photos highlighting the consequences of recent strikes on Kharkiv, focusing on civilian casualties and damage, likely for information and humanitarian purposes. Colonelcassad shares maps purportedly showing the military situation on the Krasnoarmeysky and Konstantinovsky directions, likely to illustrate claimed Russian gains and strategic priorities.
Internal US Political Developments: РБК-Україна reports that the Trump administration intends to cut staff at the CIA by approximately 1200 employees over several years, citing The Washington Post. This suggests potential restructuring within US intelligence agencies under a future Trump administration. РБК-Україна also reports that the White House confirmed Trump will hold a military parade on June 14th to commemorate the 250th anniversary of the US Army and his 79th birthday. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that the US State Department approved a $310 million contract for F-16 maintenance for Ukraine, noting previous reports of the US sending decommissioned F-16s for spare parts. РБК-Україна reports that the US has approved a $3.5 billion arms sale to Saudi Arabia ahead of a potential Trump visit to Riyadh, aimed at strengthening ties and pressuring Iran. This indicates US efforts to bolster alliances in the Middle East and exert influence in the region, potentially with broader geopolitical implications. РБК-Україна shares AI-generated images of Donald Trump as the Pope, which is not directly related to military operations but is a political commentary.
Internal Russian Issues: TASS reports that the investigation into the former chief of staff of the Russian Ministry of Defense, Yuri Kuznetsov, regarding a bribery case, has been completed. This indicates progress in a high-profile corruption case within the Russian military structure. Два майора reports that their naval Spetsnaz detected and destroyed an unmanned boat near the Black Sea. This indicates continued Russian countermeasures against Ukrainian naval drone activity. TASS reports that Wylsacom, a well-known tech blogger, owes 2.5 million rubles in taxes according to law enforcement. Два майора reports that on the western coast of Crimea, Ukrainian forces organized fire impact with unmanned boats against Russian positions, and their naval Spetsnaz engaged in combat, with FPV drones providing objective control of destruction. This confirms Ukrainian activity targeting the Crimean coast with unmanned boats and the involvement of Russian naval Spetsnaz and FPV drones in countering this activity. Два майора confirms activity on the northwestern coast of Crimea. Два майора reports that in Anapa, Krasnodar Krai, falling debris from Ukrainian drones damaged three private houses in the village of Yurivka, with windows and doors broken, and also damaged a tree in the village of Tsybanobalka, with no casualties in either case. Новости Москвы reports on research suggesting that people living in new buildings are more likely to get sick due to modern construction materials containing harmful chemicals. This is an internal Russian news item not directly related to the conflict. Russian military bloggers claim a Russian aircraft was hit by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk yesterday, with the crew successfully rescued by a civilian vessel. Two Russian military bloggers provide further details on the claimed hit on a Russian aircraft by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk, stating the crew ejected and were rescued by a civilian vessel, and discuss the challenges of countering unmanned boats with aviation and the tactics of using unmanned boats with PVO and FPV drones. Ramzan Kadyrov reports on the 81st anniversary of the 98th Guards Airborne Division. A Russian military blogger shares a video purportedly showing the destruction of a Ukrainian UAV command post, crew, and antennas by FPV strikes on the Southern Donetsk direction. Russian military bloggers continue to share images and videos from Novorossiysk showing damaged buildings and reiterate the danger to civilians and the need to report fragments of ordnance. TASS reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claims 170 Ukrainian drones were shot down over regions of Russia overnight, including 96 over Crimea, 47 over Krasnodar Krai, 9 over Rostov Oblast, 8 over Bryansk Oblast, 8 over Kursk Oblast, and 2 over Belgorod Oblast. TASS reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claims 8 Storm Shadow and 3 Neptune-MD missiles were destroyed over the Black Sea, and 14 Ukrainian unmanned boats were destroyed in the Black Sea overnight. AV БогомаZ reports that eight Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs were detected and destroyed over Bryansk Oblast last night, with no casualties or damage. TASS reports that a fire after falling UAV debris at a grain terminal in Novorossiysk has been extinguished. TASS reports a Russian State Duma deputy suggested making May 1-9 continuous выходные (days off).
Naval Situation in Black, Azov, and Mediterranean Seas: The Ukrainian Navy reports that as of 06:00 on May 3rd, there are 3 Russian warships in the Black Sea, all of which are Kalibr missile carriers with a total potential salvo of up to 18 missiles. No Russian warships are reported in the Azov Sea. In the Mediterranean Sea, there are 3 Russian warships, with 1 being a Kalibr missile carrier with a potential salvo of up to 8 missiles. Over the past day, 2 vessels passed through the Kerch Strait to the Black Sea (both continuing towards the Bosphorus) and 6 vessels passed to the Azov Sea (1 moving from the Bosphorus). The Ukrainian Navy also notes that Russia continues to violate the SOLAS convention by switching off automatic identification systems. Два майора reports that on the western coast of Crimea, Ukrainian forces organized fire impact with unmanned boats against Russian positions, and their naval Spetsnaz engaged in combat. Два майора shares video and text from the northwestern coast of Crimea, reporting a battle between naval Spetsnaz operators and enemy unmanned boats (MBECs). They report successful destruction of enemy boats with objective control from reconnaissance drones and supporting units. They also note enemy BECs operating over 24 hours in the northwestern and eastern waters, up to 50 km from shore near Novorossiysk. They confirm the enemy used naval drones to attack Russian positions with FPV launcher containers, but these drones were destroyed. Russian military bloggers claim a Russian aircraft was hit by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk yesterday, with the crew successfully rescued by a civilian vessel, and provide further details on the combined Ukrainian attack on Novorossiysk involving over three dozen unmanned boats of various types (including those carrying FPV drones and MANPADS) and dozens of drones from the Odesa area. They also reiterate details from the head of Novorossiysk regarding the damages and casualties in the city. Two Russian military bloggers provide further details on the claimed hit on a Russian aircraft by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk, stating the crew ejected and were rescued by a civilian vessel, and discuss the challenges of countering unmanned boats with aviation and the tactics of using unmanned boats with PVO and FPV drones. The head of Novorossiysk confirms the massive attack with drones, unmanned boats, and cruise missiles. TASS reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claims 8 Storm Shadow and 3 Neptune-MD missiles were destroyed over the Black Sea, and 14 Ukrainian unmanned boats were destroyed in the Black Sea overnight. Два майора reiterates the Russian MoD claims of 14 Ukrainian unmanned boats destroyed in the Black Sea overnight. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports the Russian MoD claims of missiles and unmanned boats destroyed over the Black Sea.
US Missile Development: Colonelcassad shares information about future plans to equip US PrSM ballistic missiles with autonomous payloads such as Coyote drones or Hatchet miniature glide bombs. This highlights potential future capabilities of US long-range precision strike systems, including enhanced targeting flexibility and lethality.
Israeli Airstrikes in Syria: РБК-Україна reports that Israel attacked Syria, with missiles falling near a hospital in Damascus, and targeting positions of the Syrian army's 41st division near a hospital and missile forces in the north of Daraa province. This confirms Israeli military activity in Syria targeting Syrian military assets, which could have regional implications. Rybar provides a video summary of the crisis in the Middle East, mentioning the Israeli attack in Syria and the agreement between the Syrian government and a French carrier for the operation and development of the port of Latakia.
Estimated Russian Losses: The Ukrainian General Staff provides updated estimated Russian losses as of May 3rd, showing increases in personnel (+1170), tanks (+4), UAVs (+126), cruise missiles (+1), artillery systems (+48), vehicles & fuel tanks (+121), and anti-aircraft systems (+1). These figures reflect ongoing intense combat across various fronts. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares a photo displaying estimated enemy losses across various categories as of May 3, 2025, including personnel, aircraft, helicopters, tanks, armored vehicles, artillery systems, MLRS, air defense, vehicles, special equipment, and naval assets, with "plus" numbers indicating daily increases. The total estimated personnel loss is over 471,000.
Unexploded Ordnance Incident in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: The head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration reports a civilian incident where a FPV drone part exploded, injuring a 57-year-old man and a 22-year-old woman, highlighting the danger of unexploded ordnance and emphasizing the need for caution.
Celebration of 98th Guards Airborne Division Anniversary: Ramzan Kadyrov reports on the 81st anniversary of the 98th Guards Airborne Division.
Situation in Kryvyi Rih: The head of the Kryvyi Rih Defense Council reports that the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled, no shelling occurred in Kryvyi Rih Raion overnight, and the enemy attacked Nikopol Raion with FPV drones and artillery without casualties.
Analysis of Operational Directions by Ukrainian General Staff: The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces provides a detailed breakdown of combat engagements on various fronts in the last 24 hours, including Kharkiv (6 engagements), Kupiansk (6 attacks repelled), Lyman (27 enemy attacks), Siversk (1 enemy assault repelled), Kramatorsk (8 enemy assaults), Toretsk (8 enemy attacks), Pokrovsk (83 enemy attacks repelled), Novopavlivka (23 enemy assaults repelled), Huliaipole (6 enemy attacks repelled), Orikhiv (5 enemy assaults), and Prydniprovsky (no enemy offensive actions). They also detail enemy activity on the Kursk direction (20 attacks repelled, 235 artillery shellings, 15 MLRS, 14 aviation strikes, 23 KABs). This comprehensive reporting provides valuable insights into the intensity and focus of Russian offensive operations across the front.
Details on Russian Fire Activity: The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports that in the last 24 hours, the enemy conducted 1 rocket attack (1 missile), 101 airstrikes (including 183 KABs), almost 6700 shellings (including 131 MLRS), and used 2694 kamikaze drones. This provides a high-level overview of the scale and nature of Russian fire support and drone usage.
Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Assets: The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports that over the past day, the aviation and missile forces and artillery of the Defense Forces struck 11 areas of concentration of enemy personnel, weapons, and military equipment, two command posts, two artillery systems, two air defense systems, and one enemy electronic warfare station. This indicates successful Ukrainian targeting of various Russian military assets.
Bakhmut Situation Commentary: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video with a mocking tone regarding the situation in Bakhmut, framing the presence of Ukrainian forces as celebrating in ruins. This offers a specific perspective and commentary on the ongoing situation in this highly contested area.
US Hypersonic Missile Test: РБК-Україна reports that the US successfully tested a new Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) hypersonic missile from Cape Canaveral. This is a significant development in US military capabilities but not directly related to the current conflict in Ukraine.
Immortal Regiment Action in Beijing: ТАСС shares videos and photos showing hundreds of Russian and Chinese citizens participating in the "Immortal Regiment" action in Beijing, commemorating the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II.

Frontline Dynamics and Activity:

Kharkiv Oblast: A Russian military expert claims that forces previously engaged in Kursk Oblast have been redeployed to reinforce the Kharkiv direction. New group of Shahed drones approaching Kharkiv from the north. Shaheds on the border of Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts heading north. Drones are reported in the area of Barvinkove (11), Balakliia (3), and Vovchansk (2). 7 Shaheds from Kharkiv Oblast transferring to Poltava. Air raid alert has ended. Severe Russian drone attack with 28 injured civilians and damage to multiple residential buildings and infrastructure in Slobidskyi, Kyivskyi, Osnovianskyi, and Saltivskyi districts. New groups of Shahed drones are reported approaching from the Belgorod region. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 6 combat engagements in the last 24 hours, with enemy attacks in the areas of Vovchansk and Kamyanka. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports enemy aviation strikes in the areas of Tsapivka, Velyki Prokhody, Dementiivka, and Odrada. ASTRA shares photos highlighting the consequences of recent strikes on Kharkiv, focusing on civilian casualties (46 injured, including an 11-year-old child, with 8 in moderate condition in hospitals) and damage.
Poltava Oblast: Shaheds from Sumy Oblast are moving into Poltava Oblast. Several groups of UAVs are reported in Poltava Oblast heading south, towards Lubny, Myrhorod, and Kremenchuk. 1 drone is reported south of Poltava heading southwest. Николаевский Ванёк reports ten drones from Poltava heading towards Cherkasy. 7 Shaheds from Kharkiv Oblast transferring to Poltava. 3 Shaheds from Poltava Oblast transferring to Cherkasy. 1 Shahed from Poltava Oblast transferring to Dnipropetrovsk. "Кілька груп БпЛА на сході, півночі, в центрі та півдні Полтавщини ➡️ курсом на захід." Air raid alert has ended. Multiple groups of UAVs from Poltava Oblast heading towards Kremenchuk and Dnipropetrovsk. 4 Shaheds are reported in the area of Kremenchuk, heading towards the Kryvyi Rih district. 4 Shaheds are reported north of Poltava, heading towards the Kremenchuk district. Shaheds in the center and west of Poltava Oblast are heading towards Cherkasy. 3 Shaheds from Poltava Oblast are transferring to Cherkasy Oblast. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Николаевский Ванёк)
Chernihiv Oblast: Shaheds from Sumy Oblast are moving towards Chernihiv Oblast. Shaheds in the center of Chernihiv Oblast are heading towards Kyiv Oblast. 2 Shaheds east of Chernihiv. "Шахеди" на заході Сумщини ➡️ курсом на Чернігівщину. "Шахеди" у центрі Чернігівщини ➡️ курсом на Київщину! Air raid alert has ended. Shaheds east of Chernihiv heading towards the city. 3 Shaheds are reported approaching Chernihiv. 1 drone is reported heading towards/through Nizhyn. 2 Shaheds are reported east of Chernihiv. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Николаевский Ванёк)
Cherkasy Oblast: Shaheds on the north of Cherkasy Oblast are heading south. Николаевский Ванёк reports ten drones from Poltava heading towards Cherkasy. 1 Shahed over Cherkasy. 1 Shahed west of Smila heading southwest. 1 Shahed east of Smila heading south. 3 Shaheds from Poltava Oblast transferring to Cherkasy. "Шахеди" в районі Черкас та в центрі області ➡️ курсом на захід! Air raid alert has ended. Explosions reported in Cherkasy. UAVs on the border of Cherkasy and Poltava Oblasts heading south. 3 Shaheds from Cherkasy Oblast are transferring to Kirovohrad Oblast. 1 Shahed is reported in the area of Smila. Shaheds from central and western Poltava Oblast are heading towards Cherkasy. 3 Shaheds from Poltava Oblast are transferring to Cherkasy Oblast. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Николаевский Ванёк, РБК-Україна)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 1 drone is reported heading towards Zaporizhzhia. Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia. "Шахеди" на заході Дніпропетровщини ➡️ рухаються на південний захід. Air raid alert has ended. The air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been canceled. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 400 strikes in 24 hours on 11 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including 20 aviation strikes, 228 drone attacks, 2 MLRS shellings, and 150 artillery shellings. 171 reports of damage to apartments, houses, and vehicles were received. No civilian casualties were reported in this specific reporting. Air raid alert declared in communities outside of Zaporizhzhia city. KABs reported on Zaporizhzhia. New group of Shahed drones reported approaching from the south. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports enemy aviation strikes in the areas of Huliaipole, Mali Shcherbaky, and Novoandriivka. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 5 enemy assaults in the Orikhiv direction in the last 24 hours in the areas of Shcherbaky, Mala Tokmachka, and Stepove. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: A group of Shahed drones is reported on the border of Kirovohrad and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Shaheds in northern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are moving south. 1 drone is reported north of Dnipro and 1 west of Pavlohrad. 2 drones are reported in the area of Pavlohrad. 1 Shahed from Poltava Oblast transferring to Dnipropetrovsk. "Шахеди" на заході Дніпропетровщини ➡️ рухаються на південний захід. Air raid alert has ended. Multiple groups of UAVs from Poltava Oblast heading towards Dnipropetrovsk. 4 Shaheds from the Kremenchuk area are heading towards the Kryvyi Rih district. The head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration reports that four Russian drones were shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight and that the enemy attacked Nikopol Raion with FPV drones and artillery without casualties. He also confirms a civilian incident where a FPV drone part exploded, injuring a 57-year-old man and a 22-year-old woman. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Николаевский Ванёк, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА))
Kherson Oblast: Russian airborne forces share a video purportedly showing strikes on Ukrainian positions. A group of drones from Kherson Oblast is heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast. Russian source claims forces from the 810th brigade are operating on the right bank of the Dnipro. (Colonelcassad, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Alex Parker Returns)
Mykolaiv Oblast: A group of drones from Kherson Oblast is heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк notes one drone from Kirovohrad Oblast transferring to Mykolaiv Oblast. 1 Shahed heading towards Voznesensk. 3 Shaheds from Kryvorizky district transferring to Mykolaiv Oblast. "Шахеди" на півночі Миколаївщини ➡️ курсом на Одещину. Air raid alert has ended. Reports of drone activity and explosions in Mykolaiv. Николаевский Ванёк reports 3 drones approaching the city from the direction of Matveevka, with one successfully intercepted. Further updates indicate a second interception. Shaheds north of Mykolaiv moving towards the city. Shaheds in northern Mykolaiv Oblast heading southwest. One drone near Balovne has turned away from the city. Николаевский Ванёк reports one drone circling near Voznesensk and another east of Pivdennoukrainsk. Three drones are reported west of Bashtanka heading south. Three drones from Kryvorizky district are transferring to Mykolaiv Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк reports one drone near Matveevka is turning towards Matveevka and will likely fly towards the Ingulsky Bridge, with a heightened threat for Varvarovka, Zavodsky, and Central districts. Repeated explosions are reported in Mykolaiv. Shaheds in the center of Mykolaiv Oblast are heading towards Mykolaiv city. Shaheds in northern Mykolaiv Oblast are heading south. The head of the Mykolaiv Oblast Military Administration reports that industrial infrastructure was hit in Mykolaiv City by a Shahed drone attack around 03:55 on May 3rd, with no casualties, and details various FPV and strike drone attacks in Mykolaiv Raion on May 2nd, also without casualties. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Николаевский Ванёк, РБК-Україна, Суспільне Миколаїв, РБК-Україна)
Sumy Oblast: Explosions reported in Sumy. Shaheds from Sumy Oblast are moving towards Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts. New group of Shaheds on the north of Sumy Oblast. Shaheds on the west and in the center of Sumy Oblast are heading towards Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts. 4 drones are reported west of Sumy and 2 in the area of Okhtyrka. Shaheds on the border of Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts are heading north. Николаевский Ванёк reports four drones from Sumy Oblast transferring to Poltava and three from Sumy Oblast towards/through Pryluky. "Шахеди" на заході Сумщини ➡️ курсом на Чернігівщину. Air raid alert has ended. New group of Shaheds from Belgorod Oblast heading towards Kharkiv along the border with Sumy Oblast. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports enemy aviation strikes in the areas of Turya and Mala Rybytsia. Russian source claims fresh reserves from the 78th Air Assault Regiment and assault units from the 79th Air Assault Brigade are in the border zone. (РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, НгП раZVедка)
Donetsk Oblast: 1 drone is reported heading towards/through Pokrovsk. 1 drone is reported heading towards Kramatorsk. 3 drones are reported heading towards Konstantinovka. 2 drones are reported heading towards Dobropillia. Russian military blogger's video suggests a "defeat" of the Ukrainian 425th Separate Assault Battalion "Skala" on the Pokrovsk direction. Colonelcassad shares a video purportedly showing Russian drone operators and artillery destroying Ukrainian positions and manpower on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. TASS reports, citing the head of the "Center" grouping press center, that Ukrainian forces lost over 390 military personnel in the last day due to the actions of this grouping, which is operating on the Pokrovsk direction. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on fighting for air superiority over Chasiv Yar, with VDV units claiming to destroy Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones. Воин DV reports drone operators of the 35th Combined Arms Army of the "Vostok" grouping struck Ukrainian strongholds, UAV command posts, and temporary deployment points on the Southern Donetsk direction. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of an enemy UAV command post, crew, and antennas by FPV strikes, attributing it to @rusich_army. Russian military source claims the 255th regiment is conducting a powerful offensive between Pokrovsk and Dzerzhinsk on the Mirnohrad direction, claiming to be breaking through Ukrainian defenses and advancing. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 83 combat engagements on the Pokrovsk direction in the last 24 hours, with attacks repelled in the areas of Vodyane Druhe, Novotoretske, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Dachenke, Shevchenko, Kotlyne, Udachne, Nadiivka, Kotliarivka, Preobrazhenka, and Andriivka. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 6 combat engagements in the Kupiansk direction in the last 24 hours, with attacks repelled near Kolisnykivka, Nova Kruhliakivka, and Zagryzove. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 27 enemy attacks in the Lyman direction in the last 24 hours, attempting to advance near Nove, Zelena Dolyna, Kolodiazi, Myrny, Serhiivka, Hrekivka, and Kopanky. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 1 enemy assault in the Siversk direction in the last 24 hours in the area of Bilohorivka. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 8 enemy assaults in the Kramatorsk direction in the last 24 hours in the area of Chasiv Yar and towards Novomarkove and Bila Hora. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 8 enemy attacks in the Toretsk direction in the last 24 hours in the areas of Toretsk, Krymske, Druzhba, and Sukha Balka. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 23 enemy assaults in the Novopavlivka direction in the last 24 hours in the areas of Rivnopil, Pryvilne, Rozlyv, Kostiantynopil, Burlatske, and towards Odrada and Bahatyr. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 6 enemy attacks in the Huliaipole direction in the last 24 hours near Vysoke (formerly Chervone). The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports enemy aviation strikes in the areas of Shakhove, Novoekonomichne, Poltavka, Malynivka, Nova Poltavka, Hnativka, Pokrovsk, Novoseriivka, Udachne, Novopavlivka, and Novopil. A Russian military blogger shares a video purportedly showing the destruction of a Ukrainian UAV command post, crew, and antennas by FPV strikes on the Southern Donetsk direction. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video with a mocking tone regarding the situation in Bakhmut, framing the presence of Ukrainian forces as celebrating in ruins. Colonelcassad shares maps purportedly showing the military situation on the Krasnoarmeysky and Konstantinovsky directions as of May 2, 2025, indicating Russian control and recent advances in some areas, as well as the presence of defensive structures.
Belgorod Oblast (Russia): New group of Shahed drones from Belgorod Oblast heading towards Kharkiv. Нова група "шахедів" з Бєлгородської обл.,рф ➡️ на Харківщину! Рухаються уздовж межі із Сумщиною на захід. Continued need for drone support for forces covering the border reported by a Russian source. TASS reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claims 2 Ukrainian drones were shot down over Belgorod Oblast overnight.
Kyiv Oblast: Shaheds in the center of Chernihiv Oblast are heading towards Kyiv Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк reports two drones near Pryluky heading towards Kyiv Oblast. "Шахеди" у центрі Чернігівщини ➡️ курсом на Київщину! 3 Shaheds heading towards/through Nizhyn. Air raid alert has ended. UAVs in western Kyiv Oblast are heading towards Zhytomyr Oblast. 1 drone is reported flying through Borodianka heading south. Shaheds in central Kyiv Oblast are heading towards the capital. Air raid alert announced in Kyiv. A drone is approaching Kyiv from the south. Explosions have been heard in Kyiv. Air defense is working in Kyiv. The air raid alert in Kyiv has been canceled. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Николаевский Ванёк, РБК-Україна, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), Суспільне)
Kirovohrad Oblast: A group of Shahed drones is reported on the border of Kirovohrad and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Shaheds on the south of Kirovohrad Oblast are heading west. Николаевский Ванёк notes one drone from Kirovohrad Oblast transferring to Mykolaiv Oblast. 1 Shahed south of Kropyvnytskyi. "Шахеди" у центрі Кіровоградщини ➡️ курсом на захід! Air raid alert has ended. 3 Shaheds from Cherkasy Oblast are transferring to Kirovohrad Oblast. Shaheds in the southeastern part of Kirovohrad Oblast are heading west. 4 drones are reported in the area of Dolynska. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Николаевский Ванёк)
Crimea (Occupied): Russian sources report Ukraine attacking Crimea, with the Crimean Bridge temporarily closed and explosions near Kerch. Russia reports a large drone attack. Residents of Crimea report an attack on the Crimean Bridge and it is closed. Два майора reports that on the western coast of Crimea, Ukrainian forces organized fire impact with unmanned boats against Russian positions, and their naval Spetsnaz engaged in combat, with FPV drones providing objective control of destruction. This confirms Ukrainian activity targeting the Crimean coast with unmanned boats and the involvement of Russian naval Spetsnaz and FPV drones in countering this activity. Два майора confirms activity on the northwestern coast of Crimea. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares videos and photos reporting explosions and fires in occupied Crimea during the night. Два майора shares video and text from the northwestern coast of Crimea, reporting a battle between naval Spetsnaz operators and enemy unmanned boats (MBECs). They report successful destruction of enemy boats with objective control from reconnaissance drones and supporting units. They also note enemy BECs operating over 24 hours in the northwestern and eastern waters, up to 50 km from shore near Novorossiysk. They confirm the enemy used naval drones to attack Russian positions with FPV launcher containers, but these drones were destroyed. Reported large number of enemy UAVs moving in the direction of the Crimean Bridge by a Russian source. TASS reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claims 96 Ukrainian drones were shot down over Crimea overnight. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reiterates the Russian MoD claim of 96 Ukrainian drones shot down over Crimea. Два майора shares videos purportedly showing combat control from a naval Spetsnaz unit in Crimea during the night, focused on organizing and creating conditions for combat work and destroying enemy unmanned boats attacking positions from the sea. Colonelcassad reports the Russian MoD claim of 95 drones shot down over Crimea.
Rostov Oblast (Russia): Russia reports a large drone attack on Rostov Oblast, with one impact causing a fire after a downed UAV crashed. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports houses burning in several districts due to falling debris from intercepted drones. ASTRA reports that roofs of houses caught fire in Tselina village, Rostov Oblast, due to falling debris from intercepted drones, with two adults and two children evacuated from one house. STERNENKO shares videos and photos purportedly from Russians showing air defense repelling the attack in Rostov Oblast, with imagery of a structure on fire. Николаевский Ванёк reports three drones northwest of Kamensk. STERNENKO shares additional video and photos purportedly from Russians showing air defense repelling the attack in Rostov Oblast. TASS reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claims 9 Ukrainian drones were shot down over Rostov Oblast overnight. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reiterates the Russian MoD claim of 9 Ukrainian drones shot down over Rostov Oblast.
Krasnodar Krai (Russia): Russia reports a large drone attack on Krasnodar Krai. ASTRA shares video of a fire in Taman, reportedly after a UAV attack. ASTRA reports powerful explosions in Novorossiysk, with TASS confirming air defense is repelling an attack by drones and unmanned boats in the water area near the city. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны confirms the attack on Novorossiysk with unmanned boats and UAVs, citing the Kuban operational headquarters, and reports that debris from downed UAVs caused fires in the Temryuk district of Krasnodar Krai. STERNENKO shares additional video from Taman, reporting fires due to falling debris. TASS reports that debris from a UAV caused damage to a house and fire in Taman. This further confirms the impact in this area. ASTRA and TASS report that falling debris from Ukrainian drones has damaged three private houses in Anapa, with no reported casualties. This extends the confirmed impact areas in Krasnodar Krai. ASTRA shares videos and photos showing the damaged homes in Anapa and a damaged drone wing with "ASAP ARMY OF DRONES" and a "НЕ БРАТИСЯ" sticker, confirming the use of Ukrainian "Army of Drones" assets and indicating potential drone losses. ASTRA shares photos from Novorossiysk showing damaged apartments in two multi-story buildings, the Aurora and Kristall residential complexes, due to the UAV attack. This provides visual confirmation of civilian infrastructure damage in Novorossiysk. ASTRA reports that public transport is temporarily suspended in Novorossiysk after the night's massive attack, citing local media. This indicates a direct impact on civilian life and infrastructure from the attack. Два майора reports that in Anapa, Krasnodar Krai, falling debris from Ukrainian drones damaged three private houses in the village of Yurivka, with windows and doors broken, and also damaged a tree in the village of Tsybanobalka, with no casualties in either case. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares videos and photos reporting explosions and fires in Krasnodar Krai during the night. TASS reports that according to the governor, three multi-apartment buildings were damaged in Novorossiysk due to the UAV attack, and four people were injured. TASS reports that debris from UAVs damaged three reservoirs at a grain terminal in Novorossiysk and firefighters are extinguishing the fire. Два майора provides details from the head of Novorossiysk, confirming the massive attack, damage to three multi-story buildings and three reservoirs at a grain terminal, and four injuries (two adults and two children). Два майора also shares a photo of a damaged building in Novorossiysk, reiterating that three buildings were damaged and four people injured. Russian military bloggers claim a Russian aircraft was hit by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk yesterday, with the crew successfully rescued by a civilian vessel, and provide further details on the combined Ukrainian attack on Novorossiysk involving over three dozen unmanned boats of various types (including those carrying FPV drones and MANPADS) and dozens of drones from the Odesa area. They also reiterate details from the head of Novorossiysk regarding the damages and casualties in the city. Two Russian military bloggers provide further details on the claimed hit on a Russian aircraft by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk, stating the crew ejected and were rescued by a civilian vessel, and discuss the challenges of countering unmanned boats with aviation and the tactics of using unmanned boats with PVO and FPV drones. The head of Novorossiysk confirms the massive attack with drones, unmanned boats, and cruise missiles, reporting damage to three multi-story buildings and a grain terminal, and four injuries, while stating the threat of UAVs remains and air defense is still working. Russian military bloggers continue to share images and videos from Novorossiysk showing damaged buildings and reiterate the danger to civilians and the need to report fragments of ordnance. ASTRA shares a video reportedly showing the moment of an explosion at the Kristall-5 residential complex in Novorossiysk. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video claiming that Russian air defense in Novorossiysk was shooting down drones among multi-story buildings, implying a risk to civilian structures from Russian air defense actions. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video highlighting that the Ukrainian attack struck residential buildings in Novorossiysk, citing the governor's report of damaged buildings and casualties. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports four civilian casualties, including two children, and damage to three multi-apartment buildings and three grain terminal reservoirs in Novorossiysk due to the UAV attack, also noting damage to three private houses in Anapa. TASS reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claims 47 Ukrainian drones were shot down over Krasnodar Krai overnight. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reiterates the Russian MoD claim of 47 Ukrainian drones shot down over Krasnodar Krai. TASS reports that a fire after falling UAV debris at a grain terminal in Novorossiysk has been extinguished.
Odesa Oblast (Tatarbunary): Ballistic missile threat reported and later canceled. Air raid alert has ended. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Syria (Deir Ezzor, Damascus, Hama, Daraa): TASS reports a civilian fatality from an Israeli airstrike near Damascus and US forces are withdrawing from two bases in Deir Ezzor. Alex Parker Returns comments on alleged Israeli airstrikes on Turkish proxies in Syria, linking it to past Russian-Turkish interactions and suggesting a shift in alliances. РБК-Україна reports that Israel attacked Syria, with missiles falling near a hospital in Damascus, and targeting positions of the Syrian army's 41st division near a hospital and missile forces in the north of Daraa province. Rybar provides a video summary of the crisis in the Middle East, mentioning the Israeli attack in Syria and the agreement between the Syrian government and a French carrier for the operation and development of the port of Latakia.
Riga (Latvia): Russian source shares a video and narrative about an alleged jewelry store robbery by individuals speaking Ukrainian. (Alex Parker Returns)
Southern Donetsk Direction (near Dilyivka): Russian FPV drone strikes on a Ukrainian temporary deployment point claimed. Colonelcassad shares a video purportedly showing Russian drone operators of the "Vostok" grouping destroying Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones on the Southern Donetsk direction. Воин DV reports drone operators of the 35th Combined Arms Army of the "Vostok" grouping struck Ukrainian strongholds, UAV command posts, and temporary deployment points. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of an enemy UAV command post, crew, and antennas by FPV strikes, attributing it to @rusich_army. A Russian military blogger shares a video purportedly showing the destruction of a Ukrainian UAV command post, crew, and antennas by FPV strikes on the Southern Donetsk direction. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 23 enemy assaults in the Novopavlivka direction in the last 24 hours in the areas of Rivnopil, Pryvilne, Rozlyv, Kostiantynopil, Burlatske, and towards Odrada and Bahatyr.
Kamensk (Russia): Николаевский Ванёк reports three drones northwest of Kamensk. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Pryluky (Ukraine): Николаевский Ванёк reports two drones near Pryluky heading towards Kyiv Oblast, and three from Sumy Oblast towards/through Pryluky. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Konotop (Ukraine): Николаевский Ванёк reports four drones near Konotop. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Nizhyn (Ukraine): 3 Shaheds heading towards/through Nizhyn. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Voznesensk (Ukraine): 1 Shahed heading towards Voznesensk. 1 Shahed circling near Voznesensk. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Kryvorizky district (Ukraine): 3 Shaheds from Kryvorizky district transferring to Mykolaiv Oblast. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Smila (Ukraine): 1 Shahed west of Smila heading southwest. 1 Shahed east of Smila heading south. 1 Shahed is reported in the area of Smila. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Temryuk district (Krasnodar Krai, Russia): Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that debris from downed UAVs caused fires. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Czech Republic: Colonelcassad shares information about the Czech RG-4 offensive hand grenade, noting its presence in the conflict zone. (Colonelcassad)
Mykolaiv (Ukraine): Reports of drone activity and explosions. Николаевский Ванёк reports 3 drones approaching the city from the direction of Matveevka, with one successfully intercepted and a second interception. Shaheds north of Mykolaiv moving towards the city. Shaheds in northern Mykolaiv Oblast heading southwest. One drone near Balovne has turned away from the city. Николаевский Ванёк reports one drone circling near Voznesensk and another east of Pivdennoukrainsk. Three drones are reported west of Bashtanka heading south. Three drones from Kryvorizky district are transferring to Mykolaiv Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк reports one drone near Matveevka is turning towards Matveevka and will likely fly towards the Ingulsky Bridge, with a heightened threat for Varvarovka, Zavodsky, and Central districts. Repeated explosions are reported in Mykolaiv. Shaheds in the center of Mykolaiv Oblast are heading towards Mykolaiv city. Shaheds in northern Mykolaiv Oblast are heading south. The head of the Mykolaiv Oblast Military Administration reports that industrial infrastructure was hit in Mykolaiv City by a Shahed drone attack around 03:55 on May 3rd, with no casualties, and details various FPV and strike drone attacks in Mykolaiv Raion on May 2nd, also without casualties. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Николаевский Ванёк, РБК-Україна, Суспільне Миколаїв, РБК-Україна)
Pivdennoukrainsk (Ukraine): Николаевский Ванёк reports one drone circling east of Pivdennoukrainsk. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Bashtanka (Ukraine): Николаевский Ванёк reports three drones west of Bashtanka heading south. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Kremenchuk (Ukraine): 4 Shaheds are reported in the area of Kremenchuk, heading towards the Kryvyi Rih district. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Black Sea: Два майора reports that their naval Spetsnaz detected and destroyed an unmanned boat near the Black Sea. The Ukrainian Navy reports that as of 06:00 on May 3rd, there are 3 Russian warships in the Black Sea, all of which are Kalibr missile carriers with a total potential salvo of up to 18 missiles. No Russian warships are reported in the Azov Sea. In the Mediterranean Sea, there are 3 Russian warships, with 1 being a Kalibr missile carrier with a potential salvo of up to 8 missiles. Over the past day, 2 vessels passed through the Kerch Strait to the Black Sea (both continuing towards the Bosphorus) and 6 vessels passed to the Azov Sea (1 moving from the Bosphorus). The Ukrainian Navy also notes that Russia continues to violate the SOLAS convention by switching off automatic identification systems. Два майора reports that on the western coast of Crimea, Ukrainian forces organized fire impact with unmanned boats against Russian positions, and their naval Spetsnaz engaged in combat. Два майора shares video and text from the northwestern coast of Crimea, reporting a battle between naval Spetsnaz operators and enemy unmanned boats (MBECs). They report successful destruction of enemy boats with objective control from reconnaissance drones and supporting units. They also note enemy BECs operating over 24 hours in the northwestern and eastern waters, up to 50 km from shore near Novorossiysk. They confirm the enemy used naval drones to attack Russian positions with FPV launcher containers, but these drones were destroyed. Russian military bloggers claim a Russian aircraft was hit by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk yesterday, with the crew successfully rescued by a civilian vessel, and provide further details on the combined Ukrainian attack on Novorossiysk involving over three dozen unmanned boats of various types (including those carrying FPV drones and MANPADS) and dozens of drones from the Odesa area. They also reiterate details from the head of Novorossiysk regarding the damages and casualties in the city. Two Russian military bloggers provide further details on the claimed hit on a Russian aircraft by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk, stating the crew ejected and were rescued by a civilian vessel, and discuss the challenges of countering unmanned boats with aviation and the tactics of using unmanned boats with PVO and FPV drones. The head of Novorossiysk confirms the massive attack with drones, unmanned boats, and cruise missiles. TASS reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claims 8 Storm Shadow and 3 Neptune-MD missiles were destroyed over the Black Sea, and 14 Ukrainian unmanned boats were destroyed in the Black Sea overnight. ASTRA reports the Russian MoD claims of missiles and unmanned boats destroyed over the Black Sea. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reiterates the Russian MoD claims of missiles and unmanned boats destroyed over the Black Sea. Два майора reiterates the Russian MoD claims of 14 Ukrainian unmanned boats destroyed in the Black Sea overnight and shares videos purportedly showing combat control from a naval Spetsnaz unit in Crimea during the night focused on destroying enemy unmanned boats. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports the Russian MoD claims of missiles and unmanned boats destroyed over the Black Sea.
Anapa (Krasnodar Krai, Russia): ASTRA and TASS report that falling debris from Ukrainian drones has damaged three private houses, with no reported casualties. ASTRA shares videos and photos showing the damaged homes and a damaged drone wing with "ASAP ARMY OF DRONES" and a "НЕ БРАТИСЯ" sticker. Два майора reports that in Anapa, Krasnodar Krai, falling debris from Ukrainian drones damaged three private houses in the village of Yurivka, with windows and doors broken, and also damaged a tree in the village of Tsybanobalka, with no casualties in either case. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports damage to three private houses in Anapa due to the UAV attack. Colonelcassad reports damage in Anapa from Ukrainian drone attacks.
Zhytomyr Oblast (Ukraine): UAVs in western Kyiv Oblast are heading towards Zhytomyr Oblast. Russian source claims Ukrainian forces are withdrawing personnel from rear training grounds. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], НгП раZVедка)
Dolynska (Kirovohrad Oblast, Ukraine): 4 drones are reported in the area. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Borodianka (Kyiv Oblast, Ukraine): 1 drone is reported flying through Borodianka heading south. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Kremenets (Ukraine): 1 drone is reported in the area. (Николаевский Ванёк)
Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) Direction: Colonelcassad shares a video purportedly showing Russian drone operators and artillery destroying Ukrainian positions and manpower. TASS reports Ukrainian forces lost over 390 military personnel in the last day due to the actions of the "Center" grouping, operating on this direction. Russian military source claims the 255th regiment is conducting a powerful offensive between Pokrovsk and Dzerzhinsk on the Mirnohrad direction. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 83 combat engagements on the Pokrovsk direction in the last 24 hours, with attacks repelled in the areas of Vodyane Druhe, Novotoretske, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Dachenke, Shevchenko, Kotlyne, Udachne, Nadiivka, Kotliarivka, Preobrazhenka, and Andriivka. Colonelcassad claims Russian forces are consistently holding the initiative on the Krasnoarmeysky direction after repelling counterattacks, with the situation developing most successfully east of the agglomeration. Colonelcassad shares a map purportedly showing the military situation on the Krasnoarmeysky direction as of May 2, 2025, indicating Russian control and recent advances in some areas, as well as the presence of defensive structures.
Azov Sea: The Ukrainian Navy reports no Russian warships are present as of 06:00 on May 3rd. Over the past day, 6 vessels passed through the Kerch Strait to the Azov Sea, with 1 moving from the Bosphorus. TASS reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claims 1 Ukrainian drone was shot down over the Sea of Azov overnight.
Mediterranean Sea: The Ukrainian Navy reports 3 Russian warships are present as of 06:00 on May 3rd, with 1 being a Kalibr missile carrier with a potential salvo of up to 8 missiles. Rybar provides a video summary of the crisis in the Middle East, mentioning the agreement between the Syrian government and a French carrier for the operation and development of the port of Latakia.
Kerch Strait: Over the past day, 2 vessels passed through the Kerch Strait to the Black Sea (both continuing towards the Bosphorus) and 6 vessels passed to the Azov Sea (1 moving from the Bosphorus). The Ukrainian Navy also notes that Russia continues to violate the SOLAS convention by switching off automatic identification systems. Reported large number of enemy UAVs moving in the direction of the Crimean Bridge by a Russian source.
Moscow (Russia): Fighterbomber shares photos with the caption "Good morning, country!", potentially related to military aviation activity. (Fighterbomber)
Russia (Internal): TASS reports that Wylsacom, a well-known tech blogger, owes 2.5 million rubles in taxes according to law enforcement. Новости Москвы reports on research suggesting that people living in new buildings are more likely to get sick due to modern construction materials containing harmful chemicals. This is an internal Russian news item not directly related to the conflict. TASS reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claims 170 Ukrainian drones were shot down over regions of Russia overnight, including 96 over Crimea, 47 over Krasnodar Krai, 9 over Rostov Oblast, 8 over Bryansk Oblast, 8 over Kursk Oblast, and 2 over Belgorod Oblast. TASS reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claims 8 Storm Shadow and 3 Neptune-MD missiles were destroyed over the Black Sea, and 14 Ukrainian unmanned boats were destroyed in the Black Sea overnight. AV БогомаZ reports that eight Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs were detected and destroyed over Bryansk Oblast last night, with no casualties or damage. TASS reports that a fire after falling UAV debris at a grain terminal in Novorossiysk has been extinguished. TASS reports a Russian State Duma deputy suggested making May 1-9 continuous выходные (days off).
Saudi Arabia: РБК-Україна reports that the US has approved a $3.5 billion arms sale to Saudi Arabia ahead of a potential Trump visit to Riyadh. (РБК-Україна)
Yurivka (Anapa, Krasnodar Krai, Russia): Два майора reports that falling debris from Ukrainian drones damaged three private houses with broken windows and doors. (Два майора)
Tsybanobalka (Anapa, Krasnodar Krai, Russia): Два майора reports that falling debris from Ukrainian drones damaged a tree. (Два майора)
Chasiv Yar: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on fighting for air superiority, with VDV units claiming to destroy Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 8 enemy assaults in the Kramatorsk direction in the last 24 hours in the area of Chasiv Yar.
Southern Donetsk Direction: Воин DV reports drone operators of the 35th Combined Arms Army of the "Vostok" grouping struck Ukrainian strongholds, UAV command posts, and temporary deployment points. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of an enemy UAV command post, crew, and antennas by FPV strikes, attributing it to @rusich_army. A Russian military blogger shares a video purportedly showing the destruction of a Ukrainian UAV command post, crew, and antennas by FPV strikes on the Southern Donetsk direction. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 23 enemy assaults in the Novopavlivka direction in the last 24 hours in the areas of Rivnopil, Pryvilne, Rozlyv, Kostiantynopil, Burlatske, and towards Odrada and Bahatyr.
Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): The head of the Kryvyi Rih Defense Council reports that the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled, no shelling occurred in Kryvyi Rih Raion overnight, and the enemy attacked Nikopol Raion with FPV drones and artillery without casualties. (Олександр Вілкул)
Nikopol Raion (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): The head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration reports that the enemy attacked Nikopol Raion with FPV drones and artillery overnight and in the morning without casualties. The head of the Kryvyi Rih Defense Council also reports enemy attacks with FPV drones and artillery on Nikopol Raion without casualties. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Олександр Вілкул)
Mykolaiv Raion (Mykolaiv Oblast): The head of the Mykolaiv Oblast Military Administration reports various FPV and strike drone attacks in Kuchurub, Ochakiv, and Pervomaisk settlement communities on May 2nd, without casualties. (РБК-Україна)
Kupiansk Direction: The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 6 combat engagements in the last 24 hours, with attacks repelled near Kolisnykivka, Nova Kruhliakivka, and Zagryzove. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Lyman Direction: The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 27 enemy attacks in the last 24 hours, attempting to advance near Nove, Zelena Dolyna, Kolodiazi, Myrny, Serhiivka, Hrekivka, and Kopanky. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Siversk Direction: The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 1 enemy assault in the last 24 hours in the area of Bilohorivka. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Kramatorsk Direction: The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 8 enemy assaults in the last 24 hours in the area of Chasiv Yar and towards Novomarkove and Bila Hora. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Toretsk Direction: The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 8 enemy attacks in the last 24 hours in the areas of Toretsk, Krymske, Druzhba, and Sukha Balka. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Novopavlivka Direction: The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 23 enemy assaults in the last 24 hours in the areas of Rivnopil, Pryvilne, Rozlyv, Kostiantynopil, Burlatske, and towards Odrada and Bahatyr. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Huliaipole Direction: The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 6 enemy attacks in the last 24 hours near Vysoke (formerly Chervone). (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Orikhiv Direction: The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 5 enemy assaults in the last 24 hours in the areas of Shcherbaky, Mala Tokmachka, and Stepove. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Prydniprovsky Direction: The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports no enemy offensive actions in the last 24 hours. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Kursk Direction: The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 20 enemy attacks repelled in the last 24 hours. They also report 235 artillery shellings (including 15 MLRS), 14 aviation strikes, and 23 KABs. TASS reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claims 8 Ukrainian drones were shot down over Kursk Oblast overnight. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reiterates the Russian MoD claim of 8 Ukrainian drones shot down over Kursk Oblast.
Volyn and Polissya Directions: The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports no signs of enemy offensive groups forming in the last 24 hours. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Mirnohrad Direction: Russian military source claims the 255th regiment is conducting a powerful offensive between Pokrovsk and Dzerzhinsk. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Dnipro River (Right Bank): Russian source claims forces from the 810th brigade are operating. (Alex Parker Returns)
Chernihiv Oblast (Rear Training Grounds): Russian source claims Ukrainian forces are withdrawing personnel. (НгП раZVедка)
Zhytomyr Oblast (Rear Training Grounds): Russian source claims Ukrainian forces are withdrawing personnel. (НгП раZVедка)
Latakia (Syria): Rybar provides a video summary of the crisis in the Middle East, mentioning the agreement between the Syrian government and a French carrier for the operation and development of the port of Latakia.
Bakhmut: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video with a mocking tone regarding the situation in Bakhmut, framing the presence of Ukrainian forces as celebrating in ruins. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦)
Bryansk Oblast (Russia): AV БогомаZ reports that eight Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs were detected and destroyed over Bryansk Oblast last night, with no casualties or damage. TASS reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claims 8 Ukrainian drones were shot down over Bryansk Oblast overnight. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reiterates the Russian MoD claim of 8 Ukrainian drones shot down over Bryansk Oblast.
Oryol Oblast (Russia): TASS reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claims 2 Ukrainian drones were shot down over Oryol Oblast overnight. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reiterates the Russian MoD claim of 2 Ukrainian drones shot down over Oryol Oblast.
Konstantinovsky Direction: Colonelcassad shares a map purportedly showing the military situation on the Konstantinovsky direction as of May 2, 2025, indicating Russian control and the presence of defensive structures.
Dzerzhinsky Direction: Colonelcassad claims Russian forces are consistently holding the initiative and increasing pressure towards Kleban-Byk.

Aerial and Naval Activity:

Drone Activity: Massive Russian drone attack on Kharkiv with a significant increase in civilian casualties (now 47 injured, including a child). DSNS reports 10 fires in four districts of Kharkiv caused by drone impacts and debris. President Zelenskyy confirmed dozens of Shaheds were used. New groups of Shahed and other UAVs are active or approaching numerous Ukrainian oblasts with detailed and updated routes. New group of Shaheds from Belgorod Oblast heading towards Kharkiv. Explosions reported in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia. New groups of Shaheds approaching Sumy Oblast from the north, moving into Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts, with some heading towards Kyiv Oblast. Other groups are moving south in Poltava, towards Lubny, Myrhorod, and Kremenchuk. Shaheds in northern Cherkasy are heading south, in southern Kirovohrad are heading west, in northern Dnipropetrovsk are heading south, and on the Kharkiv/Sumy border are heading north. Russia reports a large Ukrainian drone attack on Crimea, Krasnodar Krai, and Rostov Oblast, with impacts and fires from downed UAV debris in Rostov Oblast. ASTRA reports that roofs of houses caught fire in Tselina village, Rostov Oblast, due to falling debris from intercepted drones, with two adults and two children evacuated from one house. STERNENKO shares videos and photos purportedly from Russians showing air defense repelling the attack in Rostov Oblast, with imagery of a structure on fire. Russian military blogger reflects on the widespread use of "Geranium" (Shahed) drones. Russian source claims around a hundred Ukrainian UAVs have entered Russian territory towards the Krasnodar Krai and the coasts of the Azov and Black Seas. Ukrainian forces (414th ОБрУБАС «Птахи Мадяра») report suppressing enemy UAVs over the past week. Updated information on drone movements across various oblasts is being provided, including specific numbers and locations near Kamensk, Pryluky, Konotop, Voznesensk, Kropyvnytskyi, Cherkasy, Smila, Nizhyn, and east of Chernihiv. "Шахеди" на заході Дніпропетровщини ➡️ рухаються на південний захід. "Шахеди" на півночі Миколаївщини ➡️ курсом на Одещину. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны confirms the attack on Novorossiysk with unmanned boats and UAVs, and reports that debris from downed UAVs caused fires in the Temryuk district of Krasnodar Krai. STERNENKO shares additional video from Taman, reporting fires due to falling debris. TASS reports that debris from a UAV caused damage to a house and fire in Taman. Air raid alerts have ended. Explosions reported in Cherkasy. Reports of drone activity and explosions in Mykolaiv, with claims of successful interceptions by Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainian Air Force provides further updates on Shahed movements across numerous oblasts with specified directions, including towards Zhytomyr from western Kyiv, towards Cherkasy from central and western Poltava, westward from southeastern Kirovohrad, and towards Mykolaiv city from central Mykolaiv. Further updates on drone activity in Mykolaiv indicate one drone near Balovne has turned away from the city. Additional reports suggest a drone is maneuvering near Matveevka and potentially targeting the Ingulsky Bridge, and there is a heightened threat for the Varvarovka, Zavodsky, and Central districts of Mykolaiv. Repeated explosions are reported in Mykolaiv. Николаевский Ванёк provides updated numbers and locations of drones: 1 circling near Voznesensk, 4 near Dolynska, 3 from Poltava transferring to Cherkasy, and 1 flying through Borodianka heading south. Shaheds in central Kyiv Oblast are heading towards the capital. Air raid alert announced in Kyiv. Shaheds in northern Mykolaiv Oblast are heading south. Colonelcassad shares a video purportedly showing Russian drone operators of the "Vostok" grouping destroying Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones on the Southern Donetsk direction. A drone is approaching Kyiv from the south. Explosions have been heard in Kyiv. Air defense is working in Kyiv. The air raid alert in Kyiv has been canceled. ASTRA shares photos from Novorossiysk showing damaged apartments in two multi-story buildings, the Aurora and Kristall residential complexes, due to the UAV attack. ASTRA reports that public transport is temporarily suspended in Novorossiysk after the night's massive attack, citing local media. Два майора reports that on the western coast of Crimea, Ukrainian forces organized fire impact with unmanned boats against Russian positions, and their naval Spetsnaz engaged in combat, with FPV drones providing objective control of destruction. Два майора reports that in Anapa, Krasnodar Krai, falling debris from Ukrainian drones damaged three private houses in the village of Yurivka, with windows and doors broken, and also damaged a tree in the village of Tsybanobalka, with no casualties in either case. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares videos and photos reporting explosions and fires in occupied Crimea and Krasnodar Krai during the night. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the threat of strike UAVs has ended for all of Ukraine. TASS reports that according to the governor, three multi-apartment buildings were damaged in Novorossiysk due to the UAV attack, and four people were injured. TASS reports that debris from UAVs damaged three reservoirs at a grain terminal in Novorossiysk and firefighters are extinguishing the fire. Два майора provides details from the head of Novorossiysk, confirming the massive attack, damage to three multi-story buildings and three reservoirs at a grain terminal, and four injuries (two adults and two children). Два майора also shares a photo of a damaged building in Novorossiysk, reiterating that three buildings were damaged and four people injured. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 228 drone attacks on 7 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in 24 hours. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on fighting for air superiority over Chasiv Yar, with VDV units claiming to destroy Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones. Воин DV reports drone operators of the 35th Combined Arms Army of the "Vostok" grouping struck Ukrainian strongholds, UAV command posts, and temporary deployment points on the Southern Donetsk direction. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of an enemy UAV command post, crew, and antennas by FPV strikes, attributing it to @rusich_army. The head of the Mykolaiv Oblast Military Administration reports that industrial infrastructure was hit in Mykolaiv City by a Shahed drone attack around 03:55 on May 3rd, with no casualties, and details various FPV and strike drone attacks in Mykolaiv Raion on May 2nd, also without casualties. Russian military bloggers claim a Russian aircraft was hit by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk yesterday, with the crew successfully rescued by a civilian vessel, and provide further details on the combined Ukrainian attack on Novorossiysk involving over three dozen unmanned boats of various types (including those carrying FPV drones and MANPADS) and dozens of drones from the Odesa area. They also reiterate details from the head of Novorossiysk regarding the damages and casualties in the city. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces provides updated estimated Russian losses in UAVs (+126). The head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration reports that four Russian drones were shot down over Dnipropetropsk Oblast overnight and that the enemy attacked Nikopol Raion with FPV drones and artillery without casualties. He also confirms a civilian incident where a FPV drone part exploded, injuring two people, highlighting the danger of unexploded ordnance. Two Russian military bloggers provide further details on the claimed hit on a Russian aircraft by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk, stating the crew ejected and were rescued by a civilian vessel, and discuss the challenges of countering unmanned boats with aviation and the tactics of using unmanned boats with PVO and FPV drones. The head of Novorossiysk confirms the massive attack with drones, unmanned boats, and cruise missiles, reporting damage to three multi-story buildings and a grain terminal, and four injuries, while stating the threat of UAVs remains and air defense is still working. The head of the Kryvyi Rih Defense Council reports four drones were shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight and that the enemy attacked Nikopol Raion with FPV drones and artillery without casualties. Russian military bloggers continue to share images and videos from Novorossiysk showing damaged buildings and reiterate the danger to civilians and the need to report fragments of ordnance. A Russian military blogger shares a video purportedly showing the destruction of a Ukrainian UAV command post, crew, and antennas by FPV strikes on the Southern Donetsk direction. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 2694 kamikaze drones were used by the enemy in the last 24 hours. ASTRA shares a video reportedly showing the moment of an explosion at the Kristall-5 residential complex in Novorossiysk. 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України shares a video purportedly showing their drone operators striking enemy personnel, equipment, and logistics. This highlights Ukrainian operational successes with drones. TASS reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claims 170 Ukrainian drones were shot down over regions of Russia overnight, including 96 over Crimea, 47 over Krasnodar Krai, 9 over Rostov Oblast, 8 over Bryansk Oblast, 8 over Kursk Oblast, and 2 over Belgorod Oblast. ASTRA reports the Russian MoD claims of 170 drones destroyed overnight. AV БогомаZ reports that eight Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs were detected and destroyed over Bryansk Oblast last night. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reiterates the Russian MoD claims of 170 Ukrainian drones shot down over regions of Russia, providing a breakdown by region. Два майора reiterates the Russian MoD claims of 170 Ukrainian drones destroyed overnight and provides a breakdown by region. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports the Russian MoD claims of 170 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight.
Ballistic Missile Activity: Ballistic missile threat reported towards Tatarbunary, Odesa Oblast, and later canceled. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have issued warnings about the threat of ballistic missile launches from the south. The threat has passed. (Operational Status: Resolved) (Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine])
Updated Russian Drone Systems: Russian military blogger showcases the updated "Lancet" reconnaissance and strike complex with improved electronic warfare resistance and targeting systems. (Colonelcassad)
Russian Aerial Strikes: Russian airborne forces share a video purportedly showing strikes on Ukrainian positions in the Kherson direction. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of Russian tactical aviation in the northeastern and southeastern directions and warns of the threat of aviation weapon use for frontline oblasts. Colonelcassad shares a video purportedly showing Russian drone operators and artillery destroying Ukrainian positions and manpower on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. The Ukrainian Air Force reiterates the activity of Russian tactical aviation in the northeastern and southeastern directions and the threat of aviation weapon use for frontline oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that activity of enemy tactical aviation on the northeastern direction remains, with a threat of aviation weapons for frontline oblasts. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 20 aviation strikes on 4 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in 24 hours. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces provides updated estimated Russian losses in aircraft (+0) and helicopters (+0). The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 101 airstrikes, including 183 KABs, in the last 24 hours. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports enemy aviation strikes in the areas of Turya and Mala Rybytsia (Sumy), Tsapivka, Velyki Prokhody, Dementiivka, and Odrada (Kharkiv), Shakhove, Novoekonomichne, Poltavka, Malynivka, Nova Poltavka, Hnativka, Pokrovsk, Novoseriivka, Udachne, Novopavlivka, and Novopil (Donetsk), Huliaipole, Mali Shcherbaky, and Novoandriivka (Zaporizhzhia). The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports enemy aviation strikes, including 23 KABs, on the Kursk direction in the last 24 hours.
Russian Claims of Ukrainian Drone Attacks: Russia reports a large Ukrainian drone attack on Crimea, Krasnodar Krai, and Rostov Oblast. ASTRA reports that roofs of houses caught fire in Tselina village, Rostov Oblast, due to falling debris from intercepted drones, with two adults and two children evacuated from one house. STERNENKO shares videos and photos purportedly from Russians showing air defense repelling the attack in Rostov Oblast, with imagery of a structure on fire. ASTRA shares video of a fire in Taman, reportedly after a UAV attack. ASTRA reports powerful explosions in Novorossiysk, with TASS confirming air defense is repelling an attack by drones and unmanned boats in the water area near the city. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны confirms the attack on Novorossiysk with unmanned boats and UAVs, and reports that debris from downed UAVs caused fires in the Temryuk district of Krasnodar Krai. STERNENKO shares additional video from Taman, reporting fires due to falling debris. TASS reports that debris from a UAV caused damage to a house and fire in Taman. Residents of Crimea report an attack on the Crimean Bridge and it is closed. ASTRA and TASS report that falling debris from Ukrainian drones has damaged three private houses in Anapa, with no reported casualties. ASTRA shares videos and photos showing the damaged homes in Anapa and a damaged drone wing with "ASAP ARMY OF DRONES" and a "НЕ БРАТИСЯ" sticker. Colonelcassad shares a video purportedly showing Russian drone operators of the "Vostok" grouping destroying Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones on the Southern Donetsk direction. ASTRA shares photos from Novorossiysk showing damaged apartments in two multi-story buildings, the Aurora and Kristall residential complexes, due to the UAV attack. ASTRA reports that public transport is temporarily suspended in Novorossiysk after the night's massive attack, citing local media. Два майора reports that on the western coast of Crimea, Ukrainian forces organized fire impact with unmanned boats against Russian positions, and their naval Spetsnaz engaged in combat, with FPV drones providing objective control of destruction. Два майора reports that in Anapa, Krasnodar Krai, falling debris from Ukrainian drones damaged three private houses in the village of Yurivka, with windows and doors broken, and also damaged a tree in the village of Tsybanobalka, with no casualties in either case. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares videos and photos reporting explosions and fires in occupied Crimea and Krasnodar Krai during the night. TASS reports that according to the governor, three multi-apartment buildings were damaged in Novorossiysk due to the UAV attack, and four people were injured. TASS reports that debris from UAVs damaged three reservoirs at a grain terminal in Novorossiysk and firefighters are extinguishing the fire. Два майора provides details from the head of Novorossiysk, confirming the massive attack, damage to three multi-story buildings and three reservoirs at a grain terminal, and four injuries (two adults and two children). Два майора also shares a photo of a damaged building in Novorossiysk, reiterating that three buildings were damaged and four people injured. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on fighting for air superiority over Chasiv Yar, with VDV units claiming to destroy Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones. Воин DV reports drone operators of the 35th Combined Arms Army of the "Vostok" grouping struck Ukrainian strongholds, UAV command posts, and temporary deployment points on the Southern Donetsk direction. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of an enemy UAV command post, crew, and antennas by FPV strikes, attributing it to @rusich_army. The head of the Mykolaiv Oblast Military Administration reports various FPV and strike drone attacks in Mykolaiv Raion on May 2nd, without casualties. Russian military bloggers claim a Russian aircraft was hit by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk yesterday, with the crew successfully rescued by a civilian vessel, and provide further details on the combined Ukrainian attack on Novorossiysk involving over three dozen unmanned boats of various types (including those carrying FPV drones and MANPADS) and dozens of drones from the Odesa area. They also reiterate details from the head of Novorossiysk regarding the damages and casualties in the city. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces provides updated estimated Russian losses in UAVs (+126). The head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration reports that the enemy attacked Nikopol Raion with FPV drones and artillery overnight and in the morning without casualties. He also confirms a civilian incident where a FPV drone part exploded, injuring two people, highlighting the danger of unexploded ordnance. Two Russian military bloggers provide further details on the claimed hit on a Russian aircraft by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk, stating the crew ejected and were rescued by a civilian vessel, and discuss the challenges of countering unmanned boats with aviation and the tactics of using unmanned boats with PVO and FPV drones. The head of Novorossiysk confirms the massive attack with drones, unmanned boats, and cruise missiles, reporting damage to three multi-story buildings and a grain terminal, and four injuries, while stating the threat of UAVs remains and air defense is still working. The head of the Kryvyi Rih Defense Council reports that the enemy attacked Nikopol Raion with FPV drones and artillery without casualties. Russian military bloggers continue to share images and videos from Novorossiysk showing damaged buildings and reiterate the danger to civilians and the need to report fragments of ordnance. A Russian military blogger shares a video purportedly showing the destruction of a Ukrainian UAV command post, crew, and antennas by FPV strikes on the Southern Donetsk direction. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 2694 kamikaze drones were used by the enemy in the last 24 hours. ASTRA shares a video reportedly showing the moment of an explosion at the Kristall-5 residential complex in Novorossiysk. 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України shares a video purportedly showing their drone operators striking enemy personnel, equipment, and logistics. TASS reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claims 170 Ukrainian drones were shot down over regions of Russia overnight. ASTRA reports the Russian MoD claims of 170 drones destroyed overnight. AV БогомаZ reports that eight Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs were detected and destroyed over Bryansk Oblast last night. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reiterates the Russian MoD claims of 170 Ukrainian drones shot down over regions of Russia, providing a breakdown by region. Два майора reiterates the Russian MoD claims of 170 Ukrainian drones destroyed overnight and provides a breakdown by region. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports the Russian MoD claims of 170 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight. TASS reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claims 8 Storm Shadow and 3 Neptune-MD missiles were destroyed over the Black Sea, and 14 Ukrainian unmanned boats were destroyed in the Black Sea overnight. ASTRA reports the Russian MoD claims of missiles and unmanned boats destroyed overnight. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reiterates the Russian MoD claims of missiles and unmanned boats destroyed over the Black Sea. Два майора reiterates the Russian MoD claims of 14 Ukrainian unmanned boats destroyed in the Black Sea overnight and shares videos purportedly showing combat control from a naval Spetsnaz unit in Crimea during the night focused on destroying enemy unmanned boats. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports the Russian MoD claims of missiles and unmanned boats destroyed over the Black Sea.
Unmanned Boat Activity: TASS reports, citing the head of Novorossiysk, that air defense is repelling an attack by drones and unmanned boats in the water area near the city. This indicates the use of unmanned surface vessels in the attack on Novorossiysk. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны confirms the attack on Novorossiysk with unmanned boats and UAVs. Два майора reports that their naval Spetsnaz detected and destroyed an unmanned boat near the Black Sea. This indicates continued Russian countermeasures against Ukrainian naval drone activity. Два майора reports that on the western coast of Crimea, Ukrainian forces organized fire impact with unmanned boats against Russian positions, and their naval Spetsnaz engaged in combat, with FPV drones providing objective control of destruction. Два майора shares video and text from the northwestern coast of Crimea, reporting a battle between naval Spetsnaz operators and enemy unmanned boats (MBECs). They report successful destruction of enemy boats with objective control from reconnaissance drones and supporting units. They also note enemy BECs operating over 24 hours in the northwestern and eastern waters, up to 50 km from shore near Novorossiysk. They confirm the enemy used naval drones to attack Russian positions with FPV launcher containers, but these drones were destroyed. Russian military bloggers claim a Russian aircraft was hit by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk yesterday, with the crew successfully rescued by a civilian vessel, and provide further details on the combined Ukrainian attack on Novorossiysk involving over three dozen unmanned boats of various types (including those carrying FPV drones and MANPADS) and dozens of drones from the Odesa area. They also reiterate details from the head of Novorossiysk regarding the damages and casualties in the city. Two Russian military bloggers provide further details on the claimed hit on a Russian aircraft by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk, stating the crew ejected and were rescued by a civilian vessel, and discuss the challenges of countering unmanned boats with aviation and the tactics of using unmanned boats with PVO and FPV drones. The head of Novorossiysk confirms the massive attack with drones, unmanned boats, and cruise missiles. TASS reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claims 14 Ukrainian unmanned boats were destroyed in the Black Sea overnight. ASTRA reports the Russian MoD claims of unmanned boats destroyed over the Black Sea. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reiterates the Russian MoD claims of unmanned boats destroyed over the Black Sea. Два майора reiterates the Russian MoD claims of 14 Ukrainian unmanned boats destroyed in the Black Sea overnight and shares videos purportedly showing combat control from a naval Spetsnaz unit in Crimea during the night focused on destroying enemy unmanned boats. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports the Russian MoD claims of unmanned boats destroyed over the Black Sea.
Naval Situation: The Ukrainian Navy reports that as of 06:00 on May 3rd, there are 3 Russian warships in the Black Sea, all of which are Kalibr missile carriers with a total potential salvo of up to 18 missiles. No Russian warships are reported in the Azov Sea. In the Mediterranean Sea, there are 3 Russian warships, with 1 being a Kalibr missile carrier with a potential salvo of up to 8 missiles. Over the past day, 2 vessels passed through the Kerch Strait to the Black Sea (both continuing towards the Bosphorus) and 6 vessels passed to the Azov Sea (1 moving from the Bosphorus). The Ukrainian Navy also notes that Russia continues to violate the SOLAS convention by switching off automatic identification systems. Два майора reports that on the western coast of Crimea, Ukrainian forces organized fire impact with unmanned boats against Russian positions, and their naval Spetsnaz engaged in combat. Два майора shares video and text from the northwestern coast of Crimea, reporting a battle between naval Spetsnaz operators and enemy unmanned boats (MBECs). They report successful destruction of enemy boats with objective control from reconnaissance drones and supporting units. They also note enemy BECs operating over 24 hours in the northwestern and eastern waters, up to 50 km from shore near Novorossiysk. Russian military bloggers claim a Russian aircraft was hit by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk yesterday, with the crew successfully rescued by a civilian vessel, and provide further details on the combined Ukrainian attack on Novorossiysk involving over three dozen unmanned boats of various types (including those carrying FPV drones and MANPADS) and dozens of drones from the Odesa area. They also reiterate details from the head of Novorossiysk regarding the damages and casualties in the city. Two Russian military bloggers provide further details on the claimed hit on a Russian aircraft by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk, stating the crew ejected and were rescued by a civilian vessel, and discuss the challenges of countering unmanned boats with aviation and the tactics of using unmanned boats with PVO and FPV drones. The head of Novorossiysk confirms the massive attack with drones, unmanned boats, and cruise missiles. TASS reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claims 8 Storm Shadow and 3 Neptune-MD missiles were destroyed over the Black Sea, and 14 Ukrainian unmanned boats were destroyed in the Black Sea overnight. ASTRA reports the Russian MoD claims of missiles and unmanned boats destroyed over the Black Sea. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reiterates the Russian MoD claims of missiles and unmanned boats destroyed over the Black Sea. Два майора reiterates the Russian MoD claims of 14 Ukrainian unmanned boats destroyed in the Black Sea overnight and shares videos purportedly showing combat control from a naval Spetsnaz unit in Crimea during the night focused on destroying enemy unmanned boats. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports the Russian MoD claims of missiles and unmanned boats destroyed over the Black Sea.
MLRS Activity: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 2 MLRS shellings on 2 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in 24 hours. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces provides updated estimated Russian losses in MLRS (+0). The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 131 MLRS shellings by the enemy in the last 24 hours. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 15 MLRS shellings by the enemy on the Kursk direction in the last 24 hours.
Artillery Activity: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 150 artillery shellings on 7 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in 24 hours. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces provides updated estimated Russian losses in artillery systems (+48). The head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration reports that the enemy attacked Nikopol Raion with FPV drones and artillery overnight and in the morning without casualties. The head of the Kryvyi Rih Defense Council reports that the enemy attacked Nikopol Raion with FPV drones and artillery without casualties. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports almost 6700 shellings by the enemy in the last 24 hours. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 2 artillery systems were struck by Ukrainian forces in the last 24 hours. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 235 artillery shellings by the enemy on the Kursk direction in the last 24 hours.
Unexploded Ordnance (UXO) Incident: The head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration reports a civilian incident where a FPV drone part exploded, injuring a 57-year-old man and a 22-year-old woman, highlighting the danger of unexploded ordnance and emphasizing the need for caution.
Russian Missile Interceptions Claimed: TASS reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claims 8 Storm Shadow and 3 Neptune-MD missiles were destroyed over the Black Sea overnight. ASTRA reports the Russian MoD claims of missiles destroyed over the Black Sea. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reiterates the Russian MoD claims of 8 Storm Shadow and 3 Neptune-MD missiles destroyed over the Black Sea. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports the Russian MoD claims of 8 Storm Shadow and 3 Neptune-MD missiles destroyed over the Black Sea.

Diplomatic and Political Developments:

US Policy: US State Department approved a $310.5 million Foreign Military Sale to Ukraine for F-16 training and sustainment. Reports indicate the US has prepared new sanctions against Russia targeting banking and energy sectors, including "Gazprom," potentially awaiting Trump's approval to increase pressure for peace negotiations. US State Department reportedly stated they will no longer play a direct mediator role in negotiations. A Russian source references US State Secretary Rubio's emphasis on greater European efforts. Reportedly, Donald Trump intends to cut staff in the CIA and other US intelligence agencies. Mike Waltz reportedly preferred the appointment as US Permanent Representative to the UN over the position of US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia. РБК-Україна reports that the Trump administration intends to cut staff at the CIA by approximately 1200 employees over several years, citing The Washington Post. РБК-Україна also reports that the White House confirmed Trump will hold a military parade on June 14th to commemorate the 250th anniversary of the US Army and his 79th birthday. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that the US State Department approved a $310 million contract for F-16 maintenance for Ukraine, noting previous reports of the US sending decommissioned F-16s for spare parts. РБК-Україна reports that the US has approved a $3.5 billion arms sale to Saudi Arabia ahead of a potential Trump visit to Riyadh, aimed at strengthening ties and pressuring Iran. This indicates US efforts to bolster alliances in the Middle East and exert influence in the region, potentially with broader geopolitical implications. РБК-Україна shares AI-generated images of Donald Trump as the Pope, which is not directly related to military operations but is a political commentary.
Peace Negotiations: New US sanctions are reportedly aimed at increasing pressure for peace negotiations. Russia's stated position remains that completion of combat operations is only possible with full control of the "new regions." US State Department representative reportedly states the US will no longer act as a mediator in negotiations, indicating that it is now up to the two sides to develop ideas for ending the conflict. (ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Rybar, Воин DV)
Afghanistan and Rare Earth Elements: Renewed attention to the potential development of rare earth element deposits in Afghanistan, with reports of the Trump administration considering this in 2017 in response to Chinese dominance and an agreement for extraction by US companies with the Afghan government. (Alex Parker Returns)
South Korean Politics: TASS reports the South Korean Prosecutor's Office is searching the home of former President Yoon Suk Yeol. (TASS)
Syria: TASS reports a civilian fatality from an Israeli airstrike near Damascus and US forces are withdrawing from two bases in Deir Ezzor. Alex Parker Returns comments on alleged Israeli airstrikes on Turkish proxies in Syria, linking it to past Russian-Turkish interactions and suggesting a shift in alliances. РБК-Україна reports that Israel attacked Syria, with missiles falling near a hospital in Damascus, and targeting positions of the Syrian army's 41st division near a hospital and missile forces in the north of Daraa province. Rybar provides a video summary of the crisis in the Middle East, mentioning the Israeli attack in Syria and the agreement between the Syrian government and a French carrier for the operation and development of the port of Latakia.
AI-Generated Political Imagery: РБК-Україна shares AI-generated images of Donald Trump as the Pope, which is not directly related to military operations but is a political commentary.
Polish-Ukrainian Relations: Removal of a fake anti-Ukrainian plaque from a UPA memorial in Poland highlights ongoing tensions and historical narratives. (РБК-Україна)
Vandalism in Bulgaria: Damage to a monument to Bulgarian underground fighters and Soviet submariners in Bulgaria. (ТАСС)
NATO Defense Spending: РБК-Україна reports on German media suggesting potential demands from the new US Ambassador to NATO for allies to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP and a potential threat of a Trump boycott of the NATO summit. (РБК-Україна)
Russian State Duma Deputy Suggests Continuous May Holidays: TASS reports a Russian State Duma deputy suggested making May 1-9 continuous выходные (days off).

Internal Russian Issues:

Drone Activity: Russian source claims around a hundred Ukrainian UAVs have entered Russian territory towards the Krasnodar Krai and the coasts of the Azov and Black Seas. Russian military blogger reflects on the widespread use of "Geranium" (Shahed) drones, indicating continued Russian reliance on these systems. Russian military blogger showcases the updated "Lancet" reconnaissance and strike complex. Russia reports a large Ukrainian drone attack on Crimea, Krasnodar Krai, and Rostov Oblast, with impacts and fires from downed UAV debris in Rostov Oblast. ASTRA reports that roofs of houses caught fire in Tselina village, Rostov Oblast, due to falling debris from intercepted drones, with two adults and two children evacuated from one house. STERNENKO shares videos and photos purportedly from Russians showing air defense repelling the attack in Rostov Oblast, with imagery of a structure on fire. ASTRA shares video of a fire in Taman, reportedly after a UAV attack. ASTRA reports powerful explosions in Novorossiysk, with TASS confirming air defense is repelling an attack by drones and unmanned boats in the water area near the city. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны confirms the attack on Novorossiysk with unmanned boats and UAVs, and reports that debris from downed UAVs caused fires in the Temryuk district of Krasnodar Krai. STERNENKO shares additional video from Taman, reporting fires due to falling debris. TASS reports that debris from a UAV caused damage to a house and fire in Taman. Residents of Crimea report an attack on the Crimean Bridge and it is closed. ASTRA and TASS report that falling debris from Ukrainian drones has damaged three private houses in Anapa, with no reported casualties. ASTRA shares videos and photos showing the damaged homes in Anapa and a damaged drone wing with "ASAP ARMY OF DRONES" and a "НЕ БРАТИСЯ" sticker. Colonelcassad shares a video purportedly showing Russian drone operators of the "Vostok" grouping destroying Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones on the Southern Donetsk direction. ASTRA shares photos from Novorossiysk showing damaged apartments in two multi-story buildings, the Aurora and Kristall residential complexes, due to the UAV attack. ASTRA reports that public transport is temporarily suspended in Novorossiysk after the night's massive attack, citing local media. Два майора reports that on the western coast of Crimea, Ukrainian forces organized fire impact with unmanned boats against Russian positions, and their naval Spetsnaz engaged in combat, with FPV drones providing objective control of destruction. Два майора reports that in Anapa, Krasnodar Krai, falling debris from Ukrainian drones damaged three private houses in the village of Yurivka, with windows and doors broken, and also damaged a tree in the village of Tsybanobalka, with no casualties in either case. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares videos and photos reporting explosions and fires in occupied Crimea and Krasnodar Krai during the night. TASS reports that according to the governor, three multi-apartment buildings were damaged in Novorossiysk due to the UAV attack, and four people were injured. TASS reports that debris from UAVs damaged three reservoirs at a grain terminal in Novorossiysk and firefighters are extinguishing the fire. Два майора provides details from the head of Novorossiysk, confirming the massive attack, damage to three multi-story buildings and three reservoirs at a grain terminal, and four injuries (two adults and two children). Два майора also shares a photo of a damaged building in Novorossiysk, reiterating that three buildings were damaged and four people injured. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on fighting for air superiority over Chasiv Yar, with VDV units claiming to destroy Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones. Воин DV reports drone operators of the 35th Combined Arms Army of the "Vostok" grouping struck Ukrainian strongholds, UAV command posts, and temporary deployment points on the Southern Donetsk direction. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of an enemy UAV command post, crew, and antennas by FPV strikes, attributing it to @rusich_army. The head of the Mykolaiv Oblast Military Administration reports various FPV and strike drone attacks in Mykolaiv Raion on May 2nd, without casualties. Russian military bloggers claim a Russian aircraft was hit by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk yesterday, with the crew successfully rescued by a civilian vessel, and provide further details on the combined Ukrainian attack on Novorossiysk involving over three dozen unmanned boats of various types (including those carrying FPV drones and MANPADS) and dozens of drones from the Odesa area. They also reiterate details from the head of Novorossiysk regarding the damages and casualties in the city. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces provides updated estimated Russian losses in UAVs (+126). The head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration reports that the enemy attacked Nikopol Raion with FPV drones and artillery overnight and in the morning without casualties. He also confirms a civilian incident where a FPV drone part exploded, injuring two people, highlighting the danger of unexploded ordnance. Two Russian military bloggers provide further details on the claimed hit on a Russian aircraft by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk, stating the crew ejected and were rescued by a civilian vessel, and discuss the challenges of countering unmanned boats with aviation and the tactics of using unmanned boats with PVO and FPV drones. The head of Novorossiysk confirms the massive attack with drones, unmanned boats, and cruise missiles, reporting damage to three multi-story buildings and a grain terminal, and four injuries, while stating the threat of UAVs remains and air defense is still working. The head of the Kryvyi Rih Defense Council reports that the enemy attacked Nikopol Raion with FPV drones and artillery without casualties. Russian military bloggers continue to share images and videos from Novorossiysk showing damaged buildings and reiterate the danger to civilians and the need to report fragments of ordnance. A Russian military blogger shares a video purportedly showing the destruction of a Ukrainian UAV command post, crew, and antennas by FPV strikes on the Southern Donetsk direction. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports 2694 kamikaze drones were used by the enemy in the last 24 hours. ASTRA shares a video reportedly showing the moment of an explosion at the Kristall-5 residential complex in Novorossiysk. 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України shares a video purportedly showing their drone operators striking enemy personnel, equipment, and logistics. TASS reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claims 170 Ukrainian drones were shot down over regions of Russia overnight, including 96 over Crimea, 47 over Krasnodar Krai, 9 over Rostov Oblast, 8 over Bryansk Oblast, 8 over Kursk Oblast, and 2 over Belgorod Oblast. ASTRA reports the Russian MoD claims of 170 drones destroyed overnight. AV БогомаZ reports that eight Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs were detected and destroyed over Bryansk Oblast last night. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reiterates the Russian MoD claims of 170 Ukrainian drones shot down over regions of Russia, providing a breakdown by region. Два майора reiterates the Russian MoD claims of 170 Ukrainian drones destroyed overnight and provides a breakdown by region. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports the Russian MoD claims of 170 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed overnight. Colonelcassad reports the Russian MoD claim of 170 drones shot down over Russia, with 95 over Crimea.
Military Issues: Russian soldiers appealing to the head of the Investigative Committee regarding non-payment of wages and alleged threats from a company director who reportedly referred to soldiers as "occupants" and threatened them. One soldier was allegedly injured in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and is now in a Belgorod hospital. Russian military blogger shares video purportedly showing Ukrainian casualties in the Sudzha border region and engages in psychological operations urging Ukrainian soldiers to surrender. Russian airborne forces share a video purportedly showing strikes on Ukrainian positions in the Kherson direction. Colonelcassad shares information about the Czech RG-4 offensive hand grenade, noting its presence in the conflict zone, likely for informational purposes regarding captured or used equipment. A Russian military expert claims that forces previously engaged in Kursk Oblast have been redeployed to reinforce the Kharkiv direction. Colonelcassad shares a video purportedly showing a Russian serviceman who returned from captivity discussing alleged torture and mistreatment by Ukrainian forces and the SBU. This is framed as evidence from a "International public tribunal on the crimes of Ukrainian neo-Nazis," indicating a targeted information operation aimed at promoting a specific narrative about the treatment of Russian prisoners of war. TASS reports that the investigation into the former chief of staff of the Russian Ministry of Defense, Yuri Kuznetsov, regarding a bribery case, has been completed. Два майора reports that their naval Spetsnaz detected and destroyed an unmanned boat near the Black Sea. This indicates continued Russian countermeasures against Ukrainian naval drone activity. TASS reports, citing the head of the "Center" grouping press center, that Ukrainian forces lost over 390 military personnel in the last day due to the actions of this grouping, which is operating on the Pokrovsk direction. Colonelcassad shares information about future plans to equip US PrSM ballistic missiles with autonomous payloads such as Coyote drones or Hatchet miniature glide bombs. Два майора reports that on the western coast of Crimea, Ukrainian forces organized fire impact with unmanned boats against Russian positions, and their naval Spetsnaz engaged in combat. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on fighting for air superiority over Chasiv Yar, with VDV units claiming to destroy Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones. Воин DV reports drone operators of the 35th Combined Arms Army of the "Vostok" grouping struck Ukrainian strongholds, UAV command posts, and temporary deployment points on the Southern Donetsk direction. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of an enemy UAV command post, crew, and antennas by FPV strikes, attributing it to @rusich_army. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces provides updated estimated Russian losses as of May 3rd, showing increases in personnel (+1170), tanks (+4), artillery systems (+48), vehicles & fuel tanks (+121), and anti-aircraft systems (+1). Russian military bloggers claim a Russian aircraft was hit by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk yesterday, with the crew successfully rescued by a civilian vessel. Two Russian military bloggers provide further details on the claimed hit on a Russian aircraft by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk, stating the crew ejected and were rescued by a civilian vessel. Ramzan Kadyrov reports on the 81st anniversary of the 98th Guards Airborne Division. A Russian military blogger shares a video purportedly showing the destruction of a Ukrainian UAV command post, crew, and antennas by FPV strikes on the Southern Donetsk direction. Russian military bloggers continue to share images and videos from Novorossiysk showing damaged buildings and reiterate the danger to civilians and the need to report fragments of ordnance. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces provides detailed reporting on combat engagements across various directions and enemy fire activity in the last 24 hours. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports that Ukrainian forces struck 11 areas of concentration of enemy personnel, weapons, and military equipment, two command posts, two artillery systems, two air defense systems, and one enemy electronic warfare station in the last 24 hours. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a photo with a morning greeting, which can be interpreted as related to morale within Russian special forces. 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України shares a video purportedly showing their drone operators striking enemy personnel, equipment, and logistics. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares photos showing estimated enemy losses across various categories as of May 3, 2025, including personnel (over 471,000 total estimated loss), aircraft, helicopters, tanks, armored vehicles, artillery systems, MLRS, air defense, vehicles, special equipment, and naval assets, with "plus" numbers indicating daily increases. Colonelcassad claims Russian forces are consistently holding the initiative on the Krasnoarmeysky and Dzerzhinsky directions after repelling counterattacks in March and April. Colonelcassad shares maps purportedly showing the military situation on the Krasnoarmeysky and Konstantinovsky directions as of May 2, 2025.
Non-Conflict Related Incidents: Bodies of three firefighters missing since April found in Zabaykalsky Krai. Incident in Komosomolsk-on-Amur, Russia, involving individuals filming with a brazier on a roadway and subsequently facing administrative charges. TASS reports that scammers are now forging traffic violation fines, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. This indicates an internal Russian issue related to cybersecurity and fraud, likely being reported for public awareness and to portray efforts against crime. TASS reports that Wylsacom, a well-known tech blogger, owes 2.5 million rubles in taxes according to law enforcement. Новости Москвы shares information about ADHD and its impact on life expectancy, citing potential environmental factors, mental health issues, and addictions, emphasizing that diagnosis requires a psychiatrist. This is unrelated to the military conflict but is an internal news item. Новости Москвы reports on research suggesting that people living in new buildings are more likely to get sick due to modern construction materials containing harmful chemicals. This is an internal Russian news item not directly related to the conflict. (ASTRA, Полиция Хабаровского края, ТАСС, Новости Москвы)
Economic Forecast: Russian source shares a Sberbank forecast on the Ruble exchange rate, noting the absence of a scenario for the end of the "SVO" (conflict) and related sanctions in the model, suggesting the current model is not the final prediction. (Alex Parker Returns)
Naval Incident: Russian source mentions the crew of a dry cargo ship rescuing Russian military pilots. Два майора reports that their naval Spetsnaz detected and destroyed an unmanned boat near the Black Sea. This highlights ongoing Russian efforts to counter Ukrainian naval drone activity. The Ukrainian Navy reports the presence and activity of Russian warships, including Kalibr carriers, in the Black, Azov, and Mediterranean Seas, and traffic through the Kerch Strait. Два майора reports that on the western coast of Crimea, Ukrainian forces organized fire impact with unmanned boats against Russian positions, and their naval Spetsnaz engaged in combat. Два майора shares video and text from the northwestern coast of Crimea, reporting a battle between naval Spetsnaz operators and enemy unmanned boats (MBECs). They report successful destruction of enemy boats with objective control from reconnaissance drones and supporting units. Russian military bloggers claim a Russian aircraft was hit by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk yesterday, with the crew successfully rescued by a civilian vessel, and provide further details on the combined Ukrainian attack on Novorossiysk involving over three dozen unmanned boats of various types (including those carrying FPV drones and MANPADS) and dozens of drones from the Odesa area. They also reiterate details from the head of Novorossiysk regarding the damages and casualties in the city. Two Russian military bloggers provide further details on the claimed hit on a Russian aircraft by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk, stating the crew ejected and were rescued by a civilian vessel. The head of Novorossiysk confirms the massive attack with drones, unmanned boats, and cruise missiles. TASS reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claims 14 Ukrainian unmanned boats were destroyed in the Black Sea overnight. ASTRA reports the Russian MoD claims of unmanned boats destroyed over the Black Sea. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reiterates the Russian MoD claims of unmanned boats destroyed over the Black Sea. Два майора reiterates the Russian MoD claims of 14 Ukrainian unmanned boats destroyed in the Black Sea overnight and shares videos purportedly showing combat control from a naval Spetsnaz unit in Crimea during the night focused on destroying enemy unmanned boats. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports the Russian MoD claims of unmanned boats destroyed over the Black Sea.
Historical Information Operations: FSB has reportedly declassified documents about the sinking of ships carrying Soviet prisoners of war by England on May 3, 1945. Colonelcassad disseminates information related to the 80th anniversary of Victory in WWII, highlighting historical Tupolev aircraft like the TB-3, SB, TB-7 (Pe-8), and Tu-2 as part of a special project "Tupolev. Victory Aircraft," likely as part of a broader information operation in the lead-up to Victory Day. This reinforces the use of historical narratives in current information operations. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны promotes a new music album "Victory Music" featuring Russian artists performing patriotic songs, likely as part of information operations and cultural mobilization efforts tied to Victory Day. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video with a "Good morning" message, referencing going off duty or continuing work and enjoying the weekend, and asking for suggestions for good Soviet WWII films in the lead-up to Victory Day. This reinforces the ongoing information operation related to the 80th anniversary of WWII victory. ТАСС shares videos and photos of the "Immortal Regiment" action in Beijing, commemorating the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II.
Anniversary of 98th Guards Airborne Division: Ramzan Kadyrov reports on the 81st anniversary of the 98th Guards Airborne Division.
Middle East Crisis: Rybar provides a video summary of the crisis in the Middle East, mentioning the Israeli attack in Syria and the agreement between the Syrian government and a French carrier for the operation and development of the port of Latakia.

Potential Future Developments

Continued High Probability of Russian Aerial Attacks: The ongoing and widespread Russian drone activity, with multiple groups reported across numerous oblasts and updated trajectories, strongly indicates a continued high tempo of aerial attacks targeting various areas of Ukraine. The reported threat of ballistic missile launches adds another layer to this threat. New drone trajectories, including towards Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, Dobropillia, Kyiv Oblast, Nizhyn, Voznesensk, Mykolaiv Oblast, and Zhytomyr Oblast, suggest continued targeting of various areas of Ukraine, including urban centers and infrastructure. The targeting of Kyiv and Zhytomyr Oblasts suggests a potential renewed focus on the capital region and western Ukraine. The report of Russian tactical aviation activity in northeastern and southeastern directions suggests potential for guided or unguided aerial bomb strikes or other aerial attacks. The air raid threat can resume at any time. The reported drone activity towards Mykolaiv suggests this area is also a potential target, with indications of targeting key infrastructure like the Ingulsky Bridge. Continued tracking and reporting of numerous Shahed groups across multiple oblasts with specified directions indicates a sustained and dynamic aerial threat across a wide area of Ukraine, with potential for further targeting of urban infrastructure. The use of various drone types and tactics, including potential feints and maneuvering, is likely to continue. The confirmed work of air defense in Kyiv and the reports of explosions indicate active engagement with incoming aerial threats. While the general threat of strike UAVs has ended, the persistent activity of tactical aviation on the northeastern direction maintains the threat of aviation weapons for frontline areas. The high volume of strikes, particularly drone and artillery attacks, reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in the last 24 hours indicates a continued high level of localized aerial and indirect fire activity on that front. Confirmed reports of Russian drone attacks on industrial infrastructure in Mykolaiv City and FPV/strike drone attacks in Mykolaiv Raion suggest continued targeting of specific areas within the oblast. The shooting down of four Russian drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicates ongoing Russian aerial activity in that region. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports a high volume of enemy airstrikes and kamikaze drone usage in the last 24 hours, indicating a sustained aerial campaign.
Potential for Increased Casualties and Damage: The sharp rise in casualties and reports of widespread fires and damage in Kharkiv from the recent drone attack highlight the potential for significant human cost and damage to civilian infrastructure as a result of the current wave of Russian aerial assaults. Explosions in Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Cherkasy, and Mykolaiv indicate the ongoing threat to other areas and underscore the risk to civilian lives. The impact of falling debris from intercepted Ukrainian drones in Rostov and Krasnodar Oblasts (including Anapa) also highlights the risk to civilian infrastructure in Russia. The visual confirmation of damaged apartments in Novorossiysk further underscores the potential for civilian infrastructure damage from Ukrainian deep strikes, and the temporary suspension of public transport indicates a direct impact on civilian life. The confirmed civilian casualties and damage to residential buildings and a grain terminal in Novorossiysk underscore the significant humanitarian impact of these deep strikes. The reported damage to civilian property in Zaporizhzhia Oblast from various types of strikes, despite no reported casualties in that specific reporting, still highlights the risk to civilian infrastructure. The reported injuries to civilians from an exploding FPV drone part in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast highlight the continued danger posed by unexploded ordnance from previous military activity. Confirmed damage and casualties in Novorossiysk from the drone attack are likely to continue to be reported. The high number of combat engagements across various directions, as reported by the General Staff, suggests a high probability of continued casualties on both sides. ASTRA's photos highlighting civilian casualties and damage in Kharkiv reinforce the ongoing humanitarian impact.
Sustained Intense Ground Combat: While the focus of recent updates has been on aerial attacks, the context of ongoing intense fighting on key axes, supported by Russian claims of FPV drone use and the military blogger's claims regarding the 425th battalion and the Pokrovsk and Krasnoarmeysk directions, suggests that ground combat will continue to be a major factor, particularly on the Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, and Toretsk directions. The claimed redeployment of Russian forces from Kursk to Kharkiv suggests a potential increase in ground combat intensity in the Kharkiv area. The Russian claim of over 390 Ukrainian casualties on the Pokrovsk front in the last day, if accurate, underscores the intensity of the fighting on this front. The reported fighting for air superiority over Chasiv Yar, with Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian heavy lift drones, highlights the continued importance of this area and the intense operational tempo there. The reported striking of Ukrainian strongholds, UAV command posts, and temporary deployment points on the Southern Donetsk direction indicates continued Russian ground and drone offensive actions on this front. Updated estimated Russian personnel losses (+1170) and tank losses (+4) provided by the Ukrainian General Staff reflect ongoing intense ground combat. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports a high number of combat engagements across various directions, including 83 on the Pokrovsk front, 23 on the Novopavlivka front, and significant activity on the Lyman, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, and Huliaipole fronts, confirming the widespread and intense nature of ground combat. Russian claims of a powerful offensive on the Mirnohrad direction suggest a potential for localized escalation in that area. Russian claims of operations on the right bank of the Dnipro, if confirmed, could indicate efforts to establish or maintain a presence in that area. Colonelcassad's claims of Russian forces holding the initiative and advancing on the Krasnoarmeysky and Dzerzhinsky directions suggest a continuation of localized Russian offensive efforts. Colonelcassad's maps of the Krasnoarmeysky and Konstantinovsky directions visually support claims of Russian control and recent advances in specific areas.
Escalation of Ukrainian Deep Strikes and Combined Attacks: The reported large-scale Ukrainian drone attack on Crimea, Krasnodar Krai (including Anapa and Taman), and Rostov Oblast, with confirmed impacts and damage, indicates a potential escalation of Ukrainian efforts to strike military and infrastructure targets deep within Russian territory. The reported attack on Novorossiysk involving both drones and unmanned boats suggests Ukraine is employing combined tactics for greater effect against key port city assets and infrastructure. The reported attack on the Crimean Bridge, if confirmed, represents a potential major escalation targeting a key logistical and symbolic target. This could lead to retaliatory strikes from Russia. Continued reports of Russian naval Spetsnaz activity against unmanned boats near the Black Sea and on the coast of Crimea indicate ongoing countermeasures against Ukrainian naval drone capabilities. The confirmed use of "Army of Drones" assets and evidence of drone losses in Russia highlight the scale and nature of Ukrainian deep strike capabilities. The confirmed damage to civilian buildings in Novorossiysk and Anapa from the UAV attack highlights the potential collateral damage associated with these strikes. The confirmed battle between Russian naval Spetsnaz and Ukrainian unmanned boats on the northwestern coast of Crimea, with reported destruction of the Ukrainian boats, indicates ongoing and direct naval confrontations targeting the peninsula. The noted operation of enemy BECs near Novorossiysk further underscores the continued and evolving nature of Ukrainian naval drone activity in the Black Sea. The reported hit on a Russian aircraft by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk, if confirmed, represents a significant escalation of Ukrainian capabilities and targeting of Russian military assets in the Black Sea, and the combined nature of the Novorossiysk attack with various types of unmanned boats and drones suggests a sophisticated and multi-layered Ukrainian approach. The reported movement of a large number of Ukrainian UAVs towards the Crimean Bridge indicates a likely intention to conduct strikes on this key strategic asset. Russian claims of destroying a large number of Ukrainian drones, Storm Shadow and Neptune-MD missiles, and unmanned boats over the Black Sea and regions of Russia indicate a significant level of Ukrainian offensive activity and Russian counter-capabilities. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS's claim about Russian air defense shooting down drones among multi-story buildings in Novorossiysk suggests a potential risk to civilians from Russian defensive actions during Ukrainian attacks.
Escalation of Diplomatic and Economic Pressure: The US approval of F-16 training and sustainment and maintenance signals a significant, long-term military commitment to Ukraine and enhancement of their air capabilities. The preparedness of new US sanctions targeting key Russian economic sectors suggests an increased effort to exert economic pressure on Russia, potentially to influence negotiation prospects. The US stepping back from direct mediation could alter the dynamics of potential peace talks. Potential changes in the US intelligence apparatus and appointments to key roles under a future Trump administration could have implications for US foreign policy and engagement. Upcoming US military parades may be used for domestic political messaging. The US arms sale to Saudi Arabia suggests a focus on strengthening alliances and exerting pressure on Iran, which could have broader regional and geopolitical implications. РБК-Україна shares AI-generated political imagery, while not directly military, is a political commentary.
Increased Geopolitical Competition over Resources: Renewed attention to Afghanistan's rare earth deposits could lead to increased geopolitical competition for access to these resources, potentially involving major global powers and influencing regional stability.
Continued Information Operations: Expect Russian sources to continue disseminating information aimed at highlighting perceived Ukrainian weaknesses and Russian successes, including narratives around mobilization, military capabilities, and leveraging historical events and tragedies for propaganda purposes. The showcasing of updated Russian drone technology and information about captured equipment are also part of this effort. Counter-information efforts from Ukraine, including reporting on their operational successes with unmanned systems and highlighting the impact of their strikes on Russian territory, are likely to continue. Narratives about alleged criminal activity by Ukrainians abroad are likely to be amplified by Russian sources. The dissemination of historical narratives related to WWII in the lead-up to Victory Day is likely to intensify, including promoting patriotic musical releases. Information operations focusing on alleged mistreatment of Russian prisoners of war are likely to continue and be amplified. Russian reports on internal issues like fraud and tax debts are likely intended to inform the public and frame the state as actively addressing domestic problems. Colonelcassad shares a video purportedly showing Russian drone operators of the "Vostok" grouping destroying Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones on the Southern Donetsk direction. TASS reports that Wylsacom, a well-known tech blogger, owes 2.5 million rubles in taxes according to law enforcement. This is another example of reporting on internal Russian issues. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 sharing messages related to Victory Day and asking for suggestions for good Soviet WWII films further reinforces the ongoing information operation centered around this historical event. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS sharing videos and photos reporting explosions and fires in occupied Crimea and Krasnodar Krai during the night. This likely serves to highlight successful Ukrainian strikes. The sharing of AI-generated political imagery, while not directly military, is an example of the evolving nature of information operations. Russian military bloggers continue to share images and videos from Novorossiysk showing damaged buildings and reiterate the danger to civilians and the need to report fragments of ordnance. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video with a mocking tone regarding the situation in Bakhmut, framing the presence of Ukrainian forces as celebrating in ruins. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА's morning greeting could be interpreted as part of morale-boosting information operations. 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України's video showcasing drone strikes serves as counter-propaganda highlighting Ukrainian effectiveness. ТАСС sharing videos and photos of the "Immortal Regiment" action in Beijing reinforces historical narratives and potentially aims to garner international support. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" commentary on Russian "Psychosis of the victory bearer" is likely part of a Ukrainian counter-information effort. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 sharing estimated enemy losses serves as a counter-narrative to Russian claims and likely aims to boost Ukrainian morale. ASTRA highlighting civilian casualties and damage in Kharkiv contributes to the information narrative emphasizing the human cost of the conflict. Colonelcassad sharing maps of claimed Russian advances is part of Russian information operations to demonstrate success.
Focus on Counter-Drone and Air Defense Measures: The reported high number of Ukrainian UAVs entering Russian territory (claimed by a Russian source) and the widespread use of Russian drones by both sides underscore the continued critical need for effective counter-drone measures and air defense systems. The F-16 training and sustainment package directly addresses this area. The showcasing of improved Russian "Lancet" capabilities highlights the evolving nature of the drone threat. The reported attack on Novorossiysk involving both drones and unmanned boats highlights the need for layered defenses against combined threats. The confirmed destruction of Ukrainian drones over various Russian regions (including Anapa, Bryansk, Oryol, Kursk, and Belgorod) highlights Russian counter-drone efforts. Successful interceptions of Russian drones by Ukrainian forces in Mykolaiv and Kyiv indicate the continued importance of air defense efforts. Continued Russian efforts to counter Ukrainian naval drones are also expected, as evidenced by the engagement with Ukrainian unmanned boats on the western coast of Crimea and claimed destruction of 14 unmanned boats in the Black Sea. Russian success in destroying Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones indicates their focus on countering this specific Ukrainian capability. The confirmed battle between Russian naval Spetsnaz and Ukrainian unmanned boats on the northwestern coast of Crimea, with reported destruction of the Ukrainian boats, indicates ongoing and direct naval confrontations targeting the peninsula. The reported destruction of a Ukrainian UAV command post by Russian FPV strikes indicates a focus on disrupting Ukrainian drone operations. Confirmed shooting down of four Russian drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast demonstrates successful Ukrainian air defense actions. The claimed hit on a Russian aircraft by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk, if confirmed, represents a significant adaptation of Ukrainian capabilities and targeting of Russian military assets in the Black Sea, and the combined nature of the Novorossiysk attack with various types of unmanned boats and drones suggests a sophisticated and multi-layered Ukrainian approach. Discussion among Russian military bloggers about the challenges of countering unmanned boats with aviation underscores the evolving nature of naval warfare and the need for new countermeasures. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports that Ukrainian forces struck two air defense systems and one enemy electronic warfare station in the last 24 hours, indicating efforts to degrade Russian air defense and EW capabilities. The high rate of claimed Ukrainian drone, missile, and unmanned boat losses by the Russian MoD, while requiring verification, indicates intense counter-drone and counter-naval activity by Russia. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS's claim about Russian air defense shooting down drones among multi-story buildings in Novorossiysk raises concerns about the safety of civilians during air defense operations.
Potential for Further Ballistic Missile Strikes: The reported ballistic missile threat from the south suggests a potential for strikes with greater destructive power and difficulty in interception compared to drones. While the current threat has passed, this remains a potential future development. (Operational Status: Resolved)
Internal Russian Issues: The appeal from Russian soldiers regarding pay and treatment highlights potential morale issues and corruption within the Russian military or related support structures. This could have implications for troop effectiveness and internal stability. Incidents like the one in Komosomolsk-on-Amur highlight potential social control measures and the challenges of enforcing public order. The reported completion of the investigation into a high-ranking military official for bribery indicates ongoing efforts to address corruption within the Russian military structure, which could lead to further investigations or reforms. The report of a well-known blogger owing back taxes is an example of internal issues being reported. The engagement with Ukrainian unmanned boats on the western coast of Crimea highlights the direct impact of the conflict on Russian territory and the actions of Russian forces in countering it. The reported civilian property damage in Anapa due to falling drone debris underscores the domestic impact of Ukrainian deep strikes. The temporary suspension of public transport in Novorossiysk indicates the disruptive effect of the attacks on civilian life. The report on potential health issues related to new building materials is an internal Russian issue. The suggestion by a Russian State Duma deputy to make May 1-9 continuous days off is a domestic political matter.
Ukrainian Operational Adaptations: The report from the 414th ОБрУБАС «Птахи Мадяра» demonstrates the adaptability and increasing effectiveness of Ukrainian forces in utilizing unmanned systems to impact Russian logistics and personnel. The reported combined attack on Novorossiysk involving drones and unmanned boats suggests further tactical innovation by Ukraine. The reported attack on the Crimean Bridge, if confirmed, represents a significant effort to target a strategic Russian asset. The confirmed use of "Army of Drones" assets in deep strikes highlights the continued development and deployment of Ukrainian unmanned capabilities. The use of unmanned boats and FPV drones in a combined attack on the western coast of Crimea demonstrates Ukraine's continued efforts to employ multi-domain unmanned tactics against Russian positions. The high volume of drone and artillery attacks reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast indicates the continued intensity of the conflict and potential challenges faced by Ukrainian forces in that area. The confirmed destruction of Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones and a UAV command post suggests that despite Ukrainian adaptations, Russia is also adapting its countermeasures. The reported hit on a Russian aircraft by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk, if confirmed, represents a significant adaptation in Ukraine's tactics and capabilities, targeting Russian air assets at sea. The use of FPV and strike drones in Mykolaiv Raion across different communities indicates dispersed and adaptable Ukrainian tactics. Ukrainian operational reporting, such as that from the 46th Airmobile Brigade showcasing drone strikes, indicates continued efforts to highlight their effectiveness and adapt tactics. Reports of Ukrainian forces withdrawing personnel from rear training grounds could indicate preparations for new deployments or operational changes, although Russian interpretation frames it as preparation for escalation. Ukrainian forces actively striking Russian air defense and EW systems indicates a focus on degrading Russian capabilities to facilitate their own operations.
Impact of US Army Reform on Future Capabilities: The announced US Army reforms focusing on unmanned systems suggest a long-term shift in capabilities that could influence future military operations and the strategic balance. The information about future plans to equip US PrSM ballistic missiles with autonomous payloads indicates a focus on enhancing long-range precision strike capabilities with advanced targeting systems.
Czech Military Aid: Colonelcassad shares information about the Czech RG-4 offensive hand grenade, noting its presence in the conflict zone. (Colonelcassad)
Unexploded Ordnance (UXO): The confirmed presence of UXO and ongoing EOD activities indicates that areas impacted by conflict will continue to pose a hazard to both military and civilian personnel even after active combat ceases. The reported civilian injuries from an exploding FPV drone part in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast highlight the direct danger of UXO to civilians.
Russian Countermeasures: Два майора reports that their naval Spetsnaz detected and destroyed an unmanned boat near the Black Sea. This highlights ongoing Russian efforts to counter Ukrainian naval drone activity. Два майора reports that on the western coast of Crimea, their naval Spetsnaz engaged in combat with Ukrainian unmanned boats, utilizing FPV drones for objective control. This indicates a multi-layered Russian response to Ukrainian naval drone activity. The confirmed battle between Russian naval Spetsnaz and Ukrainian unmanned boats on the northwestern coast of Crimea highlights the direct nature of ongoing counter-drone efforts at sea. The reported destruction of a Ukrainian UAV command post by Russian FPV strikes indicates a focus on disrupting Ukrainian drone operations. The claimed hit on a Russian aircraft by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk, if confirmed, would necessitate a significant adaptation in Russian countermeasures to address this new threat to their air assets. Discussion among Russian military bloggers about the challenges of countering unmanned boats with aviation underscores the need for developing effective countermeasures. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports that Ukrainian forces struck two air defense systems and one enemy electronic warfare station in the last 24 hours, indicating ongoing efforts to degrade Russian countermeasures. The high rate of claimed Ukrainian drone, missile, and unmanned boat losses by the Russian MoD, while requiring verification, indicates intense counter-drone and counter-naval activity by Russia. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS's claim about Russian air defense shooting down drones among multi-story buildings in Novorossiysk suggests that Russian defensive actions during Ukrainian attacks pose a risk to civilian structures.
Ukrainian Military Aid: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that the US State Department approved a $310 million contract for F-16 maintenance for Ukraine. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Military Aviation Activity: Fighterbomber shares photos with the caption "Good morning, country!", potentially related to Russian military aviation activity. The claimed hit on a Russian aircraft by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk, if confirmed, represents a significant event impacting Russian military aviation and highlighting the evolving nature of the conflict at sea. Russian military bloggers provide further details and discussion on this claimed naval incident involving a Russian aircraft.
US Arms Sale to Saudi Arabia: The US approval of a significant arms sale to Saudi Arabia could lead to increased military capabilities for Saudi Arabia and potentially influence the balance of power in the Middle East. (РБК-Україна)
Yurivka (Anapa, Krasnodar Krai, Russia): Два майора reports that falling debris from Ukrainian drones damaged three private houses with broken windows and doors. (Два майора)
Tsybanobalka (Anapa, Krasnodar Krai, Russia): Два майора reports that falling debris from Ukrainian drones damaged a tree. (Два майора)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Damage Assessment): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports 171 reports of damage to apartments, houses, and vehicles in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in 24 hours, with no civilian casualties in this specific reporting.
Bakhmut: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video with a mocking tone regarding the situation in Bakhmut, framing the presence of Ukrainian forces as celebrating in ruins. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦)

Potential Indicators

Further reports of drone attacks, their locations, and impact on civilian and military targets, including updates on the injured in Kharkiv and any new casualties or damage in other targeted areas, particularly in Mykolaiv and other oblasts under current alert. Detailed information on the trajectories of incoming drones provided by sources like Николаевский Ванёк and Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Continued reports from Zaporizhzhia Oblast on the nature and impact of aviation, drone, and artillery strikes. Further reports on the impact of confirmed drone attacks on industrial infrastructure in Mykolaiv City and FPV/strike drone attacks in Mykolaiv Raion. Further reporting on enemy airstrikes and kamikaze drone usage across various fronts, including specific locations and types of munitions. Any further reports or visual evidence of damage and casualties from Ukrainian drone attacks in Russian regions, including Bryansk and Oryol Oblasts.
Confirmation or refutation of the reported large-scale draft raid in Uzhhorod.
Reports of successful interceptions of incoming drones or ballistic missiles by Ukrainian air defense, particularly in the targeted oblasts, including further confirmation of successful interceptions in Mykolaiv and potential interceptions in Kyiv and Zhytomyr Oblasts. Reports on successful interceptions of Russian "Baba Yaga" drones or other UAVs over Chasiv Yar or other areas. Further reports on the shooting down of Russian drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Confirmation of Ukrainian forces striking Russian air defense and EW systems.
Further reports or visual evidence of Ukrainian drone and unmanned boat activity targeting Russian territory, and Russian responses, including effectiveness of Russian naval Spetsnaz countermeasures, Russian efforts to counter Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones, and engagement with Ukrainian unmanned boats on the coast of Crimea with FPV drones. Verification of claimed damage and fires in Rostov Oblast, Krasnodar Krai (including Taman, Novorossiysk, Temryuk district, and Anapa), and visual confirmation of damaged civilian buildings in Novorossiysk and Anapa. Confirmation of an attack on the Crimean Bridge and assessment of any damage. Analysis of wreckage like the "Army of Drones" wing can provide insights into Ukrainian capabilities and tactics. Confirmation or refutation of the claimed hit on a Russian aircraft by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk, including details on the type of aircraft and unmanned boat involved, and any official statements or further evidence. Reports on Russian adaptations to counter unmanned boats carrying PVO and FPV drones. Visual evidence or official reports confirming the movement of Ukrainian UAVs towards the Crimean Bridge. Further operational reporting from Ukrainian units showcasing drone strikes on enemy targets. Independent verification of Russian claims regarding the number of intercepted drones, missiles, and unmanned boats over the Black Sea and regions of Russia. Further reporting or visual evidence related to Russian air defense operations in Novorossiysk, particularly concerning the proximity to civilian structures.
Observable changes in the intensity or direction of ground assaults on the key fronts, supported by reports from both sides. Verification of claimed Russian advances, particularly in the Pokrovsk and Krasnoarmeysk directions and regarding the 425th battalion, through independent analysis of maps and geolocated visual evidence. Reports on the effectiveness of FPV drone use by either side will be key tactical indicators. Assessment of the impact of reported Russian troop redeployments from Kursk on the Kharkiv direction. Independent verification of claimed Ukrainian casualties on the Pokrovsk front. Reports on the status of fighting for air superiority over Chasiv Yar and claimed Russian success in destroying Ukrainian heavy lift drones. Reports on Russian offensive actions and the impact of their strikes on Ukrainian strongholds, UAV command posts, and temporary deployment points on the Southern Donetsk direction. Analysis of updated estimated Russian losses in personnel and tanks to correlate with claimed ground combat intensity. Continued detailed reporting from the Ukrainian General Staff on combat engagements across various directions, including the number and location of attacks. Independent verification of Russian claims of advances on the Mirnohrad direction and operations on the right bank of the Dnipro. Reports on changes in Ukrainian troop deployments, particularly from rear training grounds in Chernihiv and Zhytomyr Oblasts, and the presence of reserves in the Sumy border zone. Further reports or visual evidence supporting or refuting Colonelcassad's claims of Russian initiative and advances on the Krasnoarmeysky and Dzerzhinsky directions, including updates on control of specific settlements like Kleban-Byk. Analysis of maps from both sides to assess claimed territorial control and recent changes on the Krasnoarmeysky and Konstantinovsky directions.
Official statements from Ukrainian authorities regarding the effectiveness of Russian aerial attacks and the humanitarian situation in affected areas. Reports on efforts to clear unexploded ordnance and mitigate the risk to civilians. Updates on the number and condition of civilian casualties in Kharkiv and Novorossiysk.
Details and implementation of the approved US F-16 training, sustainment, and maintenance package.
Announcement and specifics of any new US sanctions against Russia. Reactions from Russia and targeted entities to potential new sanctions.
Further statements or developments regarding the US role in peace negotiations, including responses to the reported statement on ending the mediation role.
Further information or actions related to potential investigations or reforms stemming from the completed investigation into Yuri Kuznetsov.
Further statements or actions from the US government or private companies regarding the potential development of rare earth element deposits in Afghanistan. Reactions from other global powers, particularly China.
Follow-up on the appeal from Russian soldiers regarding pay and threats, and any official response or investigation.
Further dissemination of historical information operations by Russia, particularly related to the declassified FSB documents and the "Tupolev. Victory Aircraft" project and the "Victory Music" album. Analysis of the themes and targets of these operations. Continued promotion of narratives regarding alleged mistreatment of Russian prisoners of war. Further content shared by Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 related to Victory Day and Soviet WWII films. Analysis of the use and impact of AI-generated political imagery. Analysis of information operations surrounding the Bakhmut situation. Continuation or changes in messaging related to Russian special forces morale. Further reports or commentary related to the "Immortal Regiment" action and other Victory Day commemorations, including their scale and messaging. Analysis of Ukrainian counter-information efforts, such as commentary on Russian Victory Day preparations.
Further reports or visual evidence showcasing the capabilities and deployment of updated Russian drone systems like the "Lancet," and efforts to counter Ukrainian heavy lift drones. Information about the use or capture of foreign-sourced equipment like the Czech RG-4 grenade.
Continued reporting from Ukrainian units like the 414th ОБрУБАС «Птахи Мадяра» and the 46th Airmobile Brigade on their operational successes and tactics using unmanned systems.
Any follow-up on the incident in Komosomolsk-on-Amur and its broader implications for public order enforcement in Russia.
Details and progress of the announced US Army reforms focusing on unmanned systems. Further information regarding the development and potential deployment of advanced autonomous payloads for US PrSM ballistic missiles.
Further dissemination of narratives about alleged criminal activity by Ukrainians abroad by Russian sources and any official responses.
Any observable impact of alleged Israeli airstrikes in Syria and US troop withdrawals on the broader regional dynamics. Further reporting on the Middle East crisis and the agreement for the port of Latakia.
Further reporting on the nature and impact of the attack on Novorossiysk, including confirmation of targets and any damage to port infrastructure or naval assets, and assessment of civilian infrastructure damage based on visual evidence. The duration of the temporary suspension of public transport in Novorossiysk. Further reports on the number and status of casualties in Novorossiysk. Visual evidence of the explosion at the Kristall-5 residential complex. Confirmation of the fire at the grain terminal in Novorossiysk being extinguished.
Reports of EOD activity, including the location and types of ordnance being cleared, which can help map areas of UXO contamination and assess the effectiveness of ordnance delivery.
Further reporting on the reported fraud involving fake traffic fines in Russia.
Updated information on the presence and activity of Russian naval vessels in the Black, Azov, and Mediterranean Seas, including any changes in the number of Kalibr carriers or their locations, and any further reports on traffic through the Kerch Strait or violations of maritime conventions. Further reports on engagements with Ukrainian unmanned boats on the western coast of Crimea. Further details on the claimed hit on a Russian aircraft by a Ukrainian unmanned boat near Novorossiysk. Independent verification of claimed Ukrainian missile and unmanned boat losses in the Black Sea.
Any further information or context related to photos shared by Fighterbomber showing military aviation activity.
Follow-up on the report of Wylsacom owing back taxes.
Any further developments regarding the US arms sale to Saudi Arabia and its potential impact on regional dynamics.
Further reporting on Israeli military activity in Syria.
Reports on the impact of strikes on Ukrainian strongholds, UAV command posts, and temporary deployment points on the Southern Donetsk direction.
Further reports or details on the anniversary of the 98th Guards Airborne Division and any associated activities.
Continued reports on the situation in Kryvyi Rih and Nikopol Raion, including any changes in the intensity or nature of attacks.
Responses to the reported US demands on NATO allies regarding defense spending.
Further developments related to the potential Trump boycott of the NATO summit.
Reactions to the removal of the fake memorial plaque in Poland.
Any follow-up on the vandalism of the monument in Bulgaria.
Further information regarding the US hypersonic missile test, including potential deployment timelines and capabilities.
Any official statements or responses to the suggestion by a Russian State Duma deputy to make May 1-9 continuous days off.

Situation Report