Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 2, 2025, 11:03 UTC)
Key Operational Updates:
German Recognition of AfD as Extremist: The German Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) has officially classified the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party as an extremist organization posing a threat to the country's democratic order. This allows for increased surveillance, including covert methods. The decision follows scandals related to the party's alleged ties to neo-Nazis and discussions of mass migrant deportations, despite the AfD's growing popularity. The party leadership denies the accusations and plans legal action, framing the decision as politically motivated. This development is a significant internal political event in a key European partner country and could have implications for Germany's political stability and its stance on international issues, including support for Ukraine, although the direct impact is not immediately clear.
Details on US-Ukraine Mineral Agreement: Further discussion of the "Agreement on the Establishment of an American-Ukrainian Investment Fund for Reconstruction" highlights differing interpretations of its terms. While the agreement includes a list of Ukrainian mineral resources, a Russian source (WarGonzo, citing Dmitry Seleznev) claims it does not obligate the US to specific aid amounts or provide security guarantees, suggesting Ukraine's sovereignty over its resources is acknowledged and investment is on a 50/50 basis. This perspective contrasts with previous reports emphasizing the significant potential value of Ukrainian mineral reserves and their role in offsetting US aid. This ongoing discussion underscores the complexity and differing narratives surrounding this economic partnership. Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal has stated the agreement is indefinite, with a review of profit distribution possible after 10 years, and termination by mutual consent. The Ukrainian Rada reportedly plans to ratify the agreement on May 8th.
Serhiy Sternenko Attack Update: The individual who attacked Ukrainian volunteer and blogger Serhiy Sternenko has been notified of suspicion for attempted premeditated murder and state treason. A court hearing for a pre-trial measure is scheduled for today. Sternenko confirms he is okay and plans to provide more details later today. This development elevates the incident beyond a simple assault, suggesting potential ties to state-sponsored activity. ASTRA also reports on this development, citing "Suspilne."
Archived Footage of Ukrainian Defensive Operations: Оперативний ЗСУ shares archived footage from January 28, 2025, showing the repulsion of a massive enemy assault by the 4th Brigade of Operational Purpose "Svoboda Force," claiming 24 enemy personnel killed ("200"), one BMP destroyed, and one motorcycle destroyed. This provides a historical glimpse into a specific Ukrainian defensive action and claimed results.
Shelling of Enerhodar Reported: Vladimir Rogov reports that Ukrainian forces are shelling Enerhodar, with strikes occurring near the Dnipro riverbank. This indicates continued military activity and targeting of areas in the vicinity of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
Air Raid Alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast Lifted: The air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted. This indicates a temporary cessation of the immediate aerial threat to the oblast.
Commemoration of the Odesa Incident: DeepState posts a message referencing May 2nd as the "Day of Fried Rooster in Odesa Style," thanking those involved for saving the city, likely a reference to the 2014 Odesa Trade Unions House fire and the events of that day, framed from a pro-Ukrainian perspective. Kotsnews provides a lengthy, strongly worded commentary commemorating the 2014 Odesa incident from a pro-Russian perspective, labeling it a "crime without a statute of limitations" and a key motivator for joining the conflict in Donbas. He frames the events as a brutal расправа (massacre) against opponents of the Maidan government, sanctioned by the "civilized world," and describes it as the catalyst for the armed Russian resistance in Donbas. "Zone of the SVO" also shares a similar post commemorating the Odesa events, labeling it a "crime without a statute of limitations" and emphasizing the burning of people in the House of Trade Unions. This highlights the continued use of this historical event as a significant point of contention and propaganda by both sides.
Casualty in Kyiv Metro: РБК-Україна reports that a body of a man born in 1996 was found at the "Dorohozhychi" metro station in Kyiv, with no signs of violent death. His identity is being established. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports on this incident. This is a non-conflict-related domestic incident.
Russian Strike Chronicle (April 30 - May 1): Colonelcassad provides a detailed chronological list of claimed Russian strikes across various Ukrainian oblasts (Donbas, Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Poltava, Chernihiv) between April 30th and May 1st, specifying locations and the types of munitions used (UMPK guided bombs, Molniya, Geran/Gerberah drones). The video attached to the report allegedly shows one of 10 "Geran/Gerberah" drones that targeted Zaporizhzhia. This provides a Russian perspective on the scale and targeting of their aerial campaign over this two-day period. A separate explosion in the Black Sea is also reported on May 1st.
South Korean Management of Uzbek Airports: Rybar reports that the Urgench International Airport in Uzbekistan will be transferred to the management of South Korea's Incheon International Airport Corporation under a public-private partnership (PPP) for 19 years. This follows similar transfers of other Uzbek airports to private management. Rybar frames this as a trend of foreign companies taking control of Uzbekistan's strategic sectors, with South Korea and Japan actively establishing themselves in Central Asia to counterbalance China and Russia. This is a geopolitical analysis outside the direct scope of the conflict in Ukraine, but it speaks to shifting regional influence.
Russian MoD Weekly Briefing (April 26 - May 2): The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) released a briefing summarizing their claimed progress in the "special military operation" over the past week (April 26 - May 2):
Group Strikes: Seven group strikes with high-precision weapons and attack drones targeting Ukrainian defense industry, airfields, depots, electronic reconnaissance, UAV/USV production, and temporary deployment areas of Ukrainian forces and mercenaries.
Sever Group (Kursk, Sumy, Belgorod, Kharkiv): Claimed completion of the defeat of Ukrainian units in Kursk region, with the liberation of Gornal (claimed as the last settlement under Ukrainian control). Continued creation of a "security belt" in Sumy border areas. Claimed hits on Ukrainian brigades in Belgorod and Kharkiv directions. Claimed neutralization of over 1,530 Ukrainian personnel and destruction of equipment (tanks, armored vehicles, vehicles, artillery, electronic warfare, ammunition depots).
Zapad Group (Kharkiv, Donetsk): Claimed liberation of Kamenka, Doroshovka (Kharkiv region), and Novoye (Donetsk People's Republic). Claimed damage to Ukrainian brigades. Claimed Ukrainian losses of over 1,630 personnel and destruction of equipment (tanks, armored vehicles including Turkish Kirpi and US M113, vehicles, artillery including NATO-made, electronic warfare, ammunition depots).
Yug Group: Claimed taking more advantageous lines and positions. Claimed hits on Ukrainian brigades. Claimed Ukrainian losses of over 1,790 personnel and destruction of equipment (armored vehicles including US M113, HMMWV, and MaxxPro, vehicles, artillery, electronic warfare, ammunition depots).
Tsentr Group: Claimed improvement of the situation along the front line. Claimed hits on Ukrainian brigades and units, including a UAV brigade and marine brigade. Claimed Ukrainian losses of over 2,970 personnel and destruction of equipment (armored vehicles including US HMMWV and M113, vehicles, artillery).
Vostok Group: Claimed continued advancing into the depth of enemy defenses. Claimed strikes on Ukrainian brigades and units, including marine and air assault brigades. Claimed Ukrainian losses of over 1,220 personnel and destruction of equipment (armored vehicles, vehicles, artillery including French Caesar and German Panzerhaubitze 2000, electronic warfare, ammunition depots).
Dnepr Group: Claimed inflicting losses on Ukrainian brigades, including mountain assault and coastal defense brigades. Claimed Ukrainian losses of over 600 personnel and destruction of equipment (armored vehicles, vehicles, artillery, electronic warfare, ammunition depots).
Aerial Activity: Claimed downing of one Ukrainian Su-27 aircraft, 36 JDAM guided bombs, five HIMARS projectiles, two S-200 missiles modified for ground targets, and 1,306 UAVs over the past week.
Naval Activity: Claimed destruction of one US-made Willard speedboat and three uncrewed surface vehicles (USVs) and damage to one vehicle in the Black Sea.
Cumulative Statistics: Provided cumulative statistics since the beginning of the "special military operation" for destroyed aircraft, helicopters, UAVs, missile systems, tanks/armored vehicles, MLRS, artillery/mortars, and support vehicles.
Visual Element: An image accompanying the report shows three Russian soldiers and text highlighting the MoD report, serving as a visual aid and communication piece.
Russian Duma Vice-Speaker Suggests Conference with US: Russian State Duma Vice-Speaker Chernyshov stated that Russia could propose to the US, in connection with their declared Victory Day on May 8th, to hold an international scientific conference on the topic of historical truth. This is a diplomatic/information warfare move, likely aimed at challenging Western historical narratives of WWII and asserting Russia's perspective.
Assessment of Russian Advance in Sumy Direction: Alex Parker Returns shares analysis of a text (not directly provided as a separate message, but analyzed in context) that indicates intensified Russian assault actions along the entire front line in the direction of Sumy, with reported border breakthroughs and consolidation in the Oleshnya area, and control of Gornal. Ukrainian air strikes are reportedly only slowing the advance, and Ukrainian brigades are being urgently transferred to counterattack. The operation in the Kursk area is described as effectively complete with clearing underway. The analysis highlights this as a critical focal point with high resource allocation by both sides.
High Casualty Rate Claimed in Basovka Operations: Alex Parker Returns shares analysis of a text (not directly provided as a separate message, but analyzed in context) that portrays challenging and costly Ukrainian military operations focused on the Basovka area, with repeated unsuccessful assaults and a high casualty rate. Ukrainian forces are described as needing a ceasefire to regroup and replenish reserves. Symbolic actions are reportedly undertaken at a high human cost. This analysis suggests a difficult situation for Ukrainian forces in this specific area, highlighting potential unsustainable tactics.
Russian Athletes Participating in Conflict: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares information and photos about a Russian karate athlete, Maxim Bakharev, a multiple world championship winner and medalist, who reportedly received a conscription notice at the start of the full-scale invasion and went to Ukraine. He reportedly fought for 2 years, reaching the rank of captain, but was heavily wounded in an ambush in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, resulting in the amputation of all his limbs. The post frames this as a "deserved punishment" and highlights the continued participation of Russian athletes in the war. The image accompanying the post includes Ukrainian text referring to a Russian world karate champion returning from Ukraine without arms and legs, labeling him an "occupier." This is a propaganda piece highlighting Russian losses and framing them as justified.
German Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution Report on AfD: Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) shares an article from mvlehti.net reporting on the German Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution officially naming the AfD as a far-right national threat. The article frames this as Germany descending into "full neo-fascism" and criticizes the targeting of nationalism and peace by "extreme globalists." This is a nationalist/anti-establishment perspective on German domestic politics and aligns with previous reports from this source.
Russian MoD Claims of Naval Drone Interception Update: Colonelcassad reports, citing the Russian MoD, that in the Black Sea waters, a US-made Willard fast patrol boat and three unmanned boats were destroyed, and one boat was damaged. This is an updated claim regarding recent naval drone activity. ТАСС also reports this, increasing the number of destroyed Ukrainian unmanned boats to 10, with one US-made Willard fast patrol boat also destroyed. Two unmanned boats were reportedly damaged. Два майора also relays the Russian MoD claim, noting the destruction of 10 Ukrainian unmanned boats and one US-made Willard, with two damaged, and asks for objective control footage to see what was used to hit the boats. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны also reports the Russian MoD claim of destroying 10 Ukrainian USVs and one US-made Willard in the Black Sea overnight and this morning, with two USVs damaged, and also claims two Ukrainian aircraft-type drones were destroyed over Crimea between 09:00 and 10:00.
Intense Fighting on the Pokrovsk Direction: Два майора shares a video claiming intense counter battles on the Pokrovsk direction, with the ground "burning." This reinforces previous reports of fierce fighting on this axis.
Russian Military Bloggers Promote Fundraising and Subscriptions: Два майора provides instructions on how to subscribe to their Telegram channel and promotes a fundraising project for "Victory Knife" where part of the profits go to help Russian soldiers. A drawing for a special knife is also being held. This highlights the continued reliance on unofficial channels and volunteer support for the Russian military and demonstrates their information/fundraising activities.
Russian Commentary on Provocations in Conflicts: Военкор Котенок shares commentary from segodnia.ru arguing that significant armed conflicts always begin with provocations orchestrated by Western elites and "third parties," drawing parallels to the "Arab Spring" and historical events in Russia. This is a clear example of a Russian information operation seeking to frame conflicts, including the current one, as externally instigated and driven by hostile forces.
Ukrainian PM Comments on Mineral Agreement Term: Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal has stated that the agreement on mineral resources with the US is indefinite, with a review of profit distribution possible after 10 years and termination by mutual consent. This provides further detail on the terms of this economic partnership. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports this.
Incident in Odesa Oblast: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that a police officer in Tatarbunary, Odesa Oblast, allegedly hit a child on a pedestrian crossing while looking at her phone. The child's father reportedly went to the police station to inquire about the investigation and was mobilized. This is a localized incident highlighting potential issues within law enforcement and mobilization practices in Ukraine, framed negatively by a Russian source.
Claimed Interception of Ukrainian Drone in Mariupol: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video claiming that a Ukrainian aircraft-type UAV armed with an explosive charge was intercepted and suppressed by a "Kupol Donbassa" electronic warfare system in the center of Mariupol on May 1st, and the explosive was neutralized. This suggests continued Ukrainian attempts to strike targets in occupied territories and Russian efforts to counter them with electronic warfare.
Support for Businesses in Kryvyi Rih: Oleksandr Vilkul reports on a large project with the Government of Luxembourg and other international partners providing grants to small businesses in Kryvyi Rih for development and job creation. He highlights the financial support already provided and priority areas including veteran, youth, and women's entrepreneurship. This indicates efforts to support the local economy and address social needs amidst the conflict.
Increased Injured in Zaporizhzhia: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports that the number of injured in yesterday's attack on Zaporizhzhia has increased to 31, including two children. Seven people remain hospitalized. This is a further increase in the confirmed casualties from the attack, highlighting its severe impact. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports this increased number of injured.
CNN Report on Putin's Shift in Goals: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a CNN report suggesting that Putin may have shifted his immediate war goals to focus on controlling occupied territories to improve relations with the US and stimulate the Russian economy, although the report notes that a return to previous plans is possible. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS interprets this as nothing new for Ukrainians, believing Putin still aims to destroy the Ukrainian state and will eventually return to his original plans. This provides a US intelligence assessment of Putin's potential current motivations, with interpretation from a Ukrainian source.
Russian MoD Claims Increased Naval Drone Interceptions: ТАСС reports a further increase in the claimed number of Ukrainian unmanned boats destroyed in the Black Sea overnight and this morning to 10, along with one US-made Willard fast patrol boat. This is an updated figure from the Russian MoD.
Promotion of Ukrainian Military Blogger: Оперативний ЗСУ recommends subscribing to the Telegram channel of Maksym Zhorin, Deputy Commander of the Third Assault Brigade and a Major in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as a reliable source of information from a real military professional, in contrast to self-proclaimed analysts. This highlights the importance of credible information sources and the role of military figures in the information space.
Ukrainian Rada Plans to Ratify Mineral Agreement: РБК-Україна reports, citing a source, that the Ukrainian Rada plans to ratify the agreement on mineral resources with the US on May 8th. This indicates the political momentum for this economic partnership within Ukraine.
Russian MoD Claims Destruction of UAV Transponders: ТАСС shares a video from the Russian MoD claiming that FPV drone operators of the "West" grouping of forces destroyed transponders of Ukrainian reconnaissance and strike drones. This suggests a Russian focus on targeting Ukrainian drone communication and control infrastructure.
Serhiy Sternenko Encourages Donations for Drones: STERNENKO shares a post encouraging donations for "Rusorez," a likely reference to acquiring drones or equipment to counter Russian forces. The accompanying image shows a drone with a payload labeled "ХУЙВАМ А НЕ СТЕРНЕНКО" ("For Khuyvam, not Sternenko"). This links the recent attack on him to his activities supporting the military and acquiring drones, and serves as a call for further support.
Reported "Salutes" in Kursk: Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming to show "salutes" in Kursk, which could be a euphemism for explosions or military activity. This is a brief report suggesting potential activity in the Kursk region.
Areas of Significant Activity:
Kharkiv Oblast: Russian forces exerting pressure. New groups of "Shaheds" approaching from the north. "Shaheds" in the center of the oblast moving south. Russian MoD claims hits on Ukrainian brigades and liberation of Kamenka and Doroshovka. Colonelcassad's strike chronicle lists UMPK strikes on the oblast, specifically Kupiansk district and Velykyi Burluk. Colonelcassad lists Geran/Gerberah strikes on the oblast, specifically Bohodukhivskyi district.
Donetsk Oblast: Ukrainian advance near Toretsk reported by ISW. Russian pressure near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka reported by ISW. Continued KABs reported by the Ukrainian Air Force. Russian MoD claims liberation of Novoye and hits on Ukrainian brigades in the "West," "Yug," "Tsentr," and "Vostok" groupings, with significant claimed Ukrainian losses in these areas, including destruction of Western-made equipment. Colonelcassad's strike chronicle lists UMPK strikes on the oblast, specifically Kostiantynivka. Colonelcassad lists Geran/Gerberah strikes on the oblast, specifically Pokrovsk district and Dobropillia. Intense counter battles reported on the Pokrovsk direction. КАБы are reported targeting Donetsk Oblast.
Kursk Oblast (Russia): Confirmed involvement of North Korean troops. Russian MoD claims completion of the defeat of Ukrainian units and liberation of Gornal. Continued information operations regarding alleged Ukrainian "atrocities" and highlighting North Korean involvement. Russian military expert claims encountering mercenaries from Poland, USA, and Turkey near Gornal. Head of SBU's Center of Special Operations "A" reports striking two enemy helicopters. Russian military blogger provides report from Sudzha, claiming destruction. Alex Parker Returns shares analysis indicating the operation in Kursk area is effectively complete with clearing underway. Kotsnews shares a video claiming to show successful work by Russian forces in the Kursk region ("podvig").Reported "salutes" (potential explosions) in Kursk.
Sumy Oblast: Russian pressure and advances reported by ISW. New groups of "Shaheds" approaching from the east and moving west. Russian MoD claims creation of a "security belt" in Sumy border areas and hits on Ukrainian brigades in the "Sever" grouping, with significant claimed Ukrainian losses in this area. Alex Parker Returns shares analysis indicating intensified Russian assault actions along the entire front line in the direction of Sumy, with reported border breakthroughs and consolidation in the Oleshnya area, and control of Gornal (also claimed by Russian MoD). Ukrainian brigades are reportedly being urgently transferred to counterattack. Colonelcassad's strike chronicle lists UMPK strikes on the oblast. КАБы are reported targeting Sumy Oblast.
Belgorod Oblast (Russia): ISW reports Russian advances in this oblast. Russian MoD claims hits on Ukrainian brigades in the "Sever" grouping, with significant claimed Ukrainian losses in this area.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Reports of ongoing fighting. Civilian casualties and damage from Russian attacks, including a school bus attack. Rising number of injured from Russian drone attack on Zaporizhzhia city (now 31, including two children). Air raid alert was active across the entire oblast but has been lifted. Russian MoD claims hits on Ukrainian brigades in the "Yug" and "Dnepr" groupings, with significant claimed Ukrainian losses in these areas, including destruction of Western-made equipment. Colonelcassad's strike chronicle lists Geran/Gerberah strikes on Zaporizhzhia and UMPK strikes on Orikhiv. Shelling of Enerhodar reported.Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted.Increased number of injured in Zaporizhzhia confirmed (31, including two children).BUUTUSOV PLUS reports a Russian athlete was heavily wounded in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Black Sea: Claimed Russian interception of USVs and a US-made fast patrol boat. Explosion in the Black Sea reported by Colonelcassad. Russian MoD claims destruction of one US-made Willard and three USVs, with one damaged. Updated Russian MoD claim of destroying 10 Ukrainian USVs and one US-made Willard, with two USVs damaged, and also claims two Ukrainian aircraft-type drones were destroyed over Crimea.The significant increase in Russian naval presence is a key development.
Kyiv Oblast: Colonelcassad's strike chronicle lists Geran/Gerberah strikes on Bila Tserkva, Obukhiv, and Fastiv, and generally on Kyiv Oblast.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: "Shahed" drone reported in northern part moving south. New groups of strike UAVs from Donetsk Oblast heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Colonelcassad's strike chronicle lists Geran/Gerberah strikes on the oblast. КАБы are reported targeting Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Cherkasy Oblast: Colonelcassad's strike chronicle lists Geran/Gerberah strikes on Kaniv and Zolotonosha.
Poltava Oblast: Colonelcassad's strike chronicle lists Geran/Gerberah strikes on Oposhnya and generally on Poltava Oblast.
Chernihiv Oblast: Colonelcassad's strike chronicle lists Geran/Gerberah strikes on the oblast.
Mariupol: Claimed interception of a Ukrainian aircraft-type drone on May 1st.
Odesa Oblast: Incident in Tatarbunary involving a police officer and mobilization reported by a Russian source.
Aerial and Naval Activity:
Drone Warfare: Continued widespread use of drones by both sides. "Shahed" strike UAVs remain a significant threat, with shifting trajectories and new concentrations reported. Claimed Russian interception of Ukrainian USVs in the Black Sea and aircraft-type drones over Crimea. Claimed Ukrainian attempts to strike targets in occupied Mariupol with aircraft-type drones. Russian MoD claims destruction of a large number of Ukrainian UAVs over the past week and also destruction of UAV transponders. Ukrainian forces are actively seeking manufacturers of anti-aircraft FPV drones. Serhiy Sternenko is highlighting his activities supporting the military and acquiring drones. Claimed interception of a Ukrainian aircraft-type drone in Mariupol on May 1st.Updated Russian MoD claims of destroying 10 Ukrainian USVs and one US-made Willard in the Black Sea, with two USVs damaged, and two Ukrainian aircraft-type drones over Crimea.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Continued widespread use by Russian forces, particularly on Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad's strike chronicle lists numerous UMPK strikes. КАБы are reported targeting Donetsk and now Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
Naval Situation: Russian missile carriers with "Kalibr" missiles remain in the Black and Mediterranean Seas (previous reporting). Claimed Russian interception of USVs and a US-made fast patrol boat in the Black Sea. Explosion in the Black Sea reported. Significant increase in Russian naval presence in the Black Sea is a new development.Updated Russian MoD claim of destroying 10 Ukrainian USVs and one US-made Willard, with two USVs damaged.
Tactical and Strategic Aviation: Russian tactical aviation activity continues to pose a threat. Colonelcassad's strike chronicle lists strikes by the Russian Aerospace Forces and missile troops using a full spectrum of weapons. Russian MoD claims downing of one Ukrainian Su-27.
Diplomatic and Political Developments:
Peace Negotiations: Discussions around potential peace settlements continue, with varying statements from Russian and US officials. Maria Zakharova's response to Zelenskyy's statement about "pain points" is a notable instance of Russian strategic propaganda regarding peace talks.
US-Ukraine Relations: The US-Ukraine mineral agreement has been signed. Further discussion on the terms and implications of this agreement are ongoing. The Ukrainian Rada reportedly plans to ratify the agreement on May 8th. Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal provided details on the agreement's indefinite term. US intelligence suggests Putin may be seeking to improve relations with the US. Trump's decision to declare May 8th as Victory in Europe Day in the US is a notable action related to historical narratives and potentially diplomatic signaling.Russian Duma Vice-Speaker suggests an international conference on historical truth with the US.
Internal US Political Developments: Significant personnel changes in the US administration. Trump's reported proposal to cut non-defense spending in a draft budget could have indirect implications.
Russian Rhetoric and Information Operations: Russian officials continue to make strong statements and actively engage in information operations, including propaganda surrounding the 2014 Odesa incident and framing Ukrainian actions negatively. The Russian MoD's weekly briefing is a key part of this, presenting claimed successes and Ukrainian losses. Russian military bloggers are also actively involved in information operations and fundraising. Commentary on provocations in conflicts is used to frame the narrative. Russian sources highlighting Trump's decision to declare May 8th as Victory in Europe Day in the US are likely part of information operations.Russian Duma Vice-Speaker suggesting a historical truth conference is a diplomatic/information warfare tactic.Commemoration of the Odesa incident by Russian sources emphasizes a specific narrative.Promotion of Russian military bloggers and fundraising efforts are ongoing.
Ukrainian Sanctions: President Zelenskyy announced new sanctions packages targeting entities and individuals supporting Russia (previous reporting).
Russian Labor Market: WarGonzo and Suverennaya Ekonomika publish a longread on the labor market situation in Russia (previous reporting).
Serbia: Serbian President Vucic promises to come to Moscow on May 9th (previous reporting).
Slovakia: Slovakian Deputy Speaker of Parliament Gaspar expressed a desire to restore relations with Russia (previous reporting).
Romania: Reports on Romanian presidential elections and detention of a Russia Today correspondent (previous reporting).
France: The French Foreign Minister has stated that European countries are preparing a new package of sanctions against Russia (previous reporting).
Iran: The US hopes for new negotiations with Iran, and Iran aims to resolve disagreements around its nuclear program through negotiations (previous reporting).
US Diplomatic Appointments: Julia Davis has been appointed as the interim Chargé d'affaires of the US diplomatic mission in Ukraine (previous reporting).
US Sharing Classified Space Intelligence: The US has begun sharing highly classified intelligence on Chinese and Russian space programs with the "Five Eyes" alliance (previous reporting).
German Domestic Politics: The official classification of the AfD as an extremist organization is a significant internal political development in Germany with potential, though unclear, implications for its foreign policy.
Internal Russian Issues:
Economic Situation: Reuters reports Russia significantly revised its 2025 budget deficit forecast upwards. Russian Ministry of Finance raises the expected budget deficit for 2025 to 1.7% of GDP, lowers the oil price forecast, and notes increased military expenditures to 6.3% of GDP (previous reporting). Russian MoD seeking to recover funds from a state-owned space center indicates potential financial disputes within the defense industrial complex.
Social Issues: Reports of arrests and incidents involving veterans and civilians (previous reporting). Casualty in Kyiv metro (non-conflict related). Incident in Odesa Oblast involving a police officer and mobilization reported by a Russian source.
Internal Security: Reports of politically motivated sentences, investigations, and cybersecurity concerns (previous reporting). Russian MoD claims destruction of UAV transponders, suggesting a focus on countering Ukrainian capabilities impacting Russian territory or occupied areas.
Public Opinion: ASTRA reports on a Telegram channel collecting expressions of bewilderment from liberals (previous reporting).
Participation of Athletes in Conflict: The report on the Russian karate athlete highlights the involvement of civilians, including prominent figures, in the conflict and the severe consequences.
Support and Rehabilitation:
Ukraine's Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War met with families of soldiers (previous reporting).
In Kryvyi Rih, a large program for reconstructing hospitals and creating rehabilitation centers for military personnel is underway (previous reporting).
Russian military bloggers continue fundraising efforts for equipment and support for units and injured soldiers. Два майора is promoting a fundraising project for "Victory Knife" with proceeds going to help soldiers.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has launched a survey in the "Army+" app to assess the accessibility of military hospitals (previous reporting).
The Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration is working on a project called "#TitansUA" to develop veteran policy (previous reporting).
STERNENKO shares a post from ASGARD FPV 412 | SBS, a Ukrainian military unit, expressing support for Serhiy Sternenko and thanking his foundation for providing drones (previous reporting). STERNENKO's call for donations for "Rusorez" (likely drones) links his personal experience to ongoing support efforts.
Support for Businesses in Kryvyi Rih: The project with Luxembourg and other partners provides financial support and job creation initiatives for small businesses, including a focus on veteran entrepreneurship, contributing to economic recovery and support for those affected by the conflict.
Other Incidents:
Escalating conflict in southern Syria and widespread wildfires in Israel are reported (previous reporting). Israeli attack near the presidential palace in Damascus reported (previous reporting).
Tensions between India and Pakistan have reportedly heightened (previous reporting).
Reports of May Day demonstrations and clashes in Paris and Berlin (previous reporting).
Attack on Serhiy Sternenko and ongoing investigation (previous reporting). The individual has been notified of suspicion for attempted murder and state treason, and a court hearing is scheduled.STERNENKO is highlighting his activities supporting the military and acquiring drones.
ASTRA reports on a Ukrainian state project detailing 300 convicted collaborators awaiting transfer to Russia (previous reporting).
Butusov Plus reports the arrest of defense plant officials for defective mines (previous reporting).
RBC-Ukraine reports explosions in Bornych, Kyiv, possibly due to delayed cluster munitions; also shares video of "Shahed" strikes in the Kyiv suburb (previous reporting).
"Zone of the SVO" shares a video purportedly showing the impact of Russian FABs on Ukrainian positions (previous reporting).
"Chef Hayabusa" shares a video suggesting someone has left the "SVO" (previous reporting).
TASS reports on queues before the Crimean Bridge (previous reporting).
RBC-Ukraine reports on the removal of the "Big Tasty" burger from McDonald's in Ukraine (previous reporting).
RBC-Ukraine reports possible delays at the Krakivets-Korczowa border crossing with Poland (previous reporting).
RBC-Ukraine reports the official exchange rate for the US dollar (previous reporting).
RBC-Ukraine reports that former US Vice President Harris criticized Trump (previous reporting).
RBC-Ukraine reports that a Ukrainian flag was torn down in Poland (previous reporting).
Slivochnyy kapriz reports positional battles near Artemivsk (Bakhmut) and claimed Russian advances near Hryhorivka (previous reporting).
Operation Z reports that Serbian President Vucic promises to come to Moscow on May 9th despite EU threats (previous reporting).
Operation Z, Voenkor Kotenok, and Tsaplienko report the US is sending decommissioned F-16s to Ukraine for spare parts (previous reporting).
Kadyrov_95 shares a video of Ramzan Kadyrov visiting a new district in Grozny named after Vladimir Putin (previous reporting).
Starter Edda reports on the Balikatan-2025 exercise (previous reporting).
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on a drone attack on a car and increased injured in Zaporizhzhia (previous reporting). Increased number of injured in Zaporizhzhia confirmed (31, including two children).
STERNENKO provides an update on the assassination attempt (previous reporting). Individual notified of suspicion for attempted murder and state treason.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares videos claiming testing of a Ukrainian "Shahed" copy ("Batyar") (previous reporting).
ASTRA reports that the Russian Guard spent 820 million rubles on faulty Chinese "drone burners" (previous reporting).
Два майора shares a video featuring Russian military personnel congratulating on May 1st with rockets (previous reporting).
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА discusses the importance of media work for military units (previous reporting).
Rybar reports on RuTube holding seminars for the 98th Airborne Division (previous reporting).
Rybar reports that the "Burevestnik" detachment operates in the Kursk border region and Chasiv Yar (previous reporting).
Воин DV reports that the Russian MFA condemned the alleged Ukrainian attack on Oleshky (previous reporting).
Воин DV reports that Slovakian Deputy Speaker of Parliament Gaspar expressed a desire to restore relations with Russia (previous reporting).
Воин DV also reports on the US-Ukraine minerals agreement, citing Bloomberg and The Atlantic (previous reporting).
Янус Путконен reports conflicting information regarding the US-Ukraine agreement (previous reporting).
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a captured Russian soldier on the Pokrovsk direction and wounded Russian soldiers (previous reporting). Reports on Russian karate athlete wounded in Zaporizhzhia.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares photos and eyewitness testimony regarding KAB strikes in Chernihiv Oblast (previous reporting).
ТАСС reports Donald Trump stated Mike Waltz will be appointed as the US Permanent Representative to the UN and Marco Rubio will become the Acting US Assistant to the President for National Security (previous reporting).
ASTRA reports Rubio as Acting National Security Advisor and Waltz as UN Ambassador (previous reporting).
Военкор Котенок reports Trump confirmed Waltz's resignation and appointment as UN Permanent Representative, with Rubio as Acting National Security Advisor (previous reporting).
Оперативний ЗСУ reports Rubio as Acting National Security Advisor and Waltz as UN Ambassador and Julia Davis appointed interim US Chargé d'affaires (previous reporting).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports on the movement of strike UAVs in various oblasts (previous reporting).
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports claimed Russian advances in various locations and battles near Chasiv Yar and Stupochky, and near the Dnipro pond, and near Nadezhdinka, Troitskoye, Kotlyarovka, Redkodub, and towards Zelena Dolyna and Novyy Mir. Reports detecting an enemy PVD in Kherson and destroying targets with attack drones. Reports fundraising for Mavic 3 drones for Zaporizhzhia. Reports revealed plans by the enemy to organize a provocation using chemical weapons on the Kharkiv direction (previous reporting). Claims interception of a Ukrainian drone in Mariupol on May 1st.
Colonelcassad reports Russian forces expanded their zone of control west of Hryhorivka in the DNR. Reports Ukrainian forces crossed the border and occupied a small forest area north of Popovka. Reports assault groups entered the southern outskirts of Novoolenovka. Reports Russian forces are storming the southern part of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). Shares video claiming to show destroyed Ukrainian Western-made armored vehicles on the Southern Donetsk direction. Reports on the combined attack on Crimea. Shares video claiming Russian FPV operators destroyed two Ukrainian strike drones heading towards Belgorod Oblast. Reports the queue before the Crimean Bridge. Shares chronicle of Russian strikes (April 30 - May 1).Reports Russian MoD claim of naval drone interceptions.Shares map claiming Russian advances near Novomykhailivka and Nove, and on the Siversk and Novoolenivka directions.
Rybar analyzes the upcoming Romanian presidential elections (previous reporting).
TASS reports the US hopes for new negotiations with Iran and Iran aims to resolve disagreements around its nuclear program through negotiations (previous reporting).
ASTRA reports on a man in Novosibirsk fined for a review and Russia demanding removal of content from Google (previous reporting).
French Foreign Minister states European countries are preparing new sanctions against Russia (previous reporting).
Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the GRU unit "PRYMARY" destroyed several Russian radar systems in Crimea (previous reporting).
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports a combined attack on Crimea is underway with unmanned boats and drones, and the largest group is heading towards Sevastopol (previous reporting).
Ukrainian General Staff reports 140 combat engagements today and details engagements on various axes, including claimed neutralization of personnel and destruction of equipment on the Pokrovsk axis, and reports Russian use of missiles, guided bombs, and kamikaze drones today (previous reporting).
Николаевский Ванёк reports on air defense work against Shahed drones in Zaporizhzhia (previous reporting).
Alex Parker Returns reports on a new Russian word "Skrymzdit'" related to the annexation of Crimea (previous reporting).
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны is appealing for equipment donations for fighters near Pokrovsk (previous reporting).
Оперативний ЗСУ is asking for help in locating two donors (previous reporting).
Военкор Котенок provides detailed analysis of fighting on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk)/Alexandro-Kalinovo direction, claiming Russian advances north of Sukha Balka towards Romanivka, fighting in the western part of Novoolenivka with Ukrainian counterattacks, fierce fighting on the outskirts of Nova Poltavka, Russian forces established in the eastern part of Malynivka and fighting for the village and the Malynivka interchange, ongoing liquidation of the Yelyzavetivka pocket, and continued fighting for Myroliubivka (previous reporting).
Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України share photos and a description of the Ukrainian "Leleka-100" reconnaissance drone (previous reporting).
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian FPV drone operators successfully targeted and eliminated a Ukrainian dugout in the Chasiv Yar area (previous reporting).
Potential Future Developments:
Continued Russian Offensive Pressure: Expect sustained Russian assaults, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis, with the reported intense counter battles and Russian MoD claims of advances and liberation of settlements. Continued pressure on the Southern Donetsk, Toretsk (Konstantinovka), Lyman, Sumy, and Chasiv Yar directions is likely. The reported Russian advances in Sumy direction, including claimed border breakthroughs and consolidation, suggest intensified efforts on this axis aiming to reach the road leading to Kursk Oblast and potentially create a "security belt" as claimed by the Russian MoD. The claimed completion of the operation in the Kursk area and clearing activities suggest consolidation of gains in that region. The high number of reported combat engagements by the Ukrainian General Staff indicates that intense fighting is ongoing across numerous sectors. Russian MoD claims of widespread hits and significant Ukrainian losses across multiple groupings ("Sever," "Zapad," "Yug," "Tsentr," "Vostok," "Dnepr") suggest a broad Russian offensive effort.
Escalated Ukrainian Attacks on Crimea: The reported claimed Russian interception of a significant number of USVs and an American-made fast patrol boat in the Black Sea indicates ongoing Ukrainian efforts to target Russian naval assets and control in the peninsula. The claimed destruction of Ukrainian aircraft-type drones over Crimea also points to continued aerial threats to the region.
Persistent and Evolving Aerial and Naval Threats: Russia will likely continue widespread drone and guided aerial bomb attacks across Ukraine, with a focus on urban centers and infrastructure, as evidenced by the "Shahed" activity and KAB launches listed in the strike chronicle. The shifting drone trajectories and new concentrations highlight the adaptable nature of this threat. The claimed interception of a Ukrainian drone in Mariupol suggests continued Ukrainian attempts to strike targets in occupied territories and Russian efforts to counter them with electronic warfare. Russian MoD claims of destroying a large number of Ukrainian UAVs and targeting their transponders indicate a focus on degrading Ukrainian drone capabilities. The significant increase in Russian naval presence in the Black Sea, including Kalibr carriers, represents an immediate and heightened threat of missile strikes against targets across Ukraine.
Increased Diplomatic Messaging and Information Operations: Expect continued emphasis from Russian sources on readiness for negotiations, linked to alleged Ukrainian vulnerabilities or military limitations. Counter-messaging from Ukraine is also likely. The conflicting narratives surrounding the US-Ukraine mineral agreement are likely to continue. Russia will likely continue to promote narratives highlighting its military successes and depicting Ukraine as struggling, including through official briefings and military bloggers. The continued use of the 2014 Odesa incident as a propaganda tool by both sides underscores its ongoing significance in shaping narratives. Trump's decision to declare May 8th as Victory in Europe Day in the US is likely to be leveraged in information operations.The Russian Duma Vice-Speaker's suggestion for a historical truth conference is a diplomatic/information warfare tactic. Commentary on provocations in conflicts is likely to continue as a means of framing the narrative.
Focus on Internal Russian Security and Information Operations: Russian authorities will likely continue to highlight alleged Ukrainian sabotage and internal issues for propaganda and to justify security measures. The official classification of the AfD as an extremist organization in Germany, while an internal development, could be leveraged in Russian information operations to portray Germany negatively or highlight perceived "extremism" in Western countries. The Russian MoD seeking to recover funds from a state-owned space center indicates potential internal issues within the defense industrial complex that could become more public. The participation of Russian athletes in the conflict and their casualties are likely to be used in information operations by both sides. Promotion of Russian military bloggers and fundraising efforts will continue.
Continued Humanitarian Impact: Ongoing fighting and aerial attacks will likely continue to result in civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure. The rising number of injured in Zaporizhzhia is a stark reminder of this. Shelling of Enerhodar also raises humanitarian concerns. Efforts to support local economies and populations in areas affected by the conflict, such as the business support program in Kryvyi Rih, will likely continue.
Development and Deployment of Unmanned Systems and Countermeasures: The ongoing importance of unmanned systems and electronic warfare will continue, with both sides seeking to develop and deploy more advanced capabilities. The race to develop advanced drones and countermeasures is a key aspect of the operational landscape. Russian claims of destroying a large number of Ukrainian UAVs and targeting their transponders indicate a focus on degrading Ukrainian drone capabilities.
Ukrainian Focus on Reconstruction and International Support: Ukraine will likely continue to prioritize post-war reconstruction planning and securing international investment and support, as evidenced by the mineral agreement and the business support program in Kryvyi Rih. The planned ratification of the mineral agreement on May 8th indicates political momentum for this partnership.
Geopolitical Shifts: The transfer of management of an Uzbek airport to a South Korean company highlights ongoing geopolitical competition for influence in Central Asia, which could indirectly impact the conflict by influencing the strategic focus of key international actors.
Naval Monitoring: Continued monitoring of Russian naval movements in the Black Sea, particularly the 15 ships including 5 Kalibr carriers, will be essential for assessing and responding to the immediate missile threat.
Potential Indicators:
Observable changes in the intensity or direction of Russian ground assaults on key fronts, particularly in and around Pokrovsk and on the Sumy direction, including verification of claimed advances and territorial control. Continued fighting in the border region of Sumy Oblast.
Further reports and visual evidence regarding the effectiveness of Ukrainian attacks on Crimea and Russian naval assets in the Black Sea, including independent verification of claimed interceptions.
Changes in the frequency, type, and targeting of Russian aerial attacks, particularly KABs and drones, and the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense. Any new drone trajectories or concentrations reported. Continued reports of air raid alerts and KAB threats in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Observable movements and activities of the 15 Russian ships in the Black Sea, including any launches of Kalibr missiles.
Further statements or actions from either side related to peace negotiations and the US-Ukraine mineral agreement. The outcome of the planned ratification of the mineral agreement on May 8th.
Any observable impacts of the official classification of the AfD as an extremist organization on German domestic politics or foreign policy.
Further reports or investigations into the attack on Serhiy Sternenko, particularly the outcome of the court hearing for a pre-trial measure.
Any observable impact of the business support program in Kryvyi Rih on the local economy or social stability.
Independent verification of Russian claims regarding Ukrainian losses and destruction of equipment, including Western-made systems and UAV transponders.
Continued promotion of Russian military bloggers and fundraising efforts.
Further information operations and propaganda surrounding the 2014 Odesa incident or other historical events.
Reports or evidence of continued Ukrainian attempts to strike targets in occupied territories, such as the claimed drone interception in Mariupol.
Any observable impact of the transfer of management of the Uzbek airport to a South Korean company on regional dynamics.
Further reports on the number of injured and humanitarian situation in Zaporizhzhia.
Any follow-up on the reported shelling of Enerhodar.
Further reports or investigations into the incident in Tatarbunary, Odesa Oblast.
Any observable impact of Trump's reported budget proposal on US foreign policy or aid to Ukraine.
