Sitrep 2025-05-01 19:05:12

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 1, 2025, 19:03 UTC)

Updated Situation

Intense ground combat and pervasive drone warfare continue across multiple operational areas, with a notable increase in Russian claims of localized advances and successful strikes. The widespread use of Russian drones and aerial bombs impacting Ukrainian territory remains a significant threat, with new reports detailing the devastating impact of KABs in Chernihiv Oblast. Diplomatic activity surrounding the conflict and internal developments in both Russia and Ukraine are also reported. The confirmed deployment of North Korean troops to Kursk Oblast continues to be a factor. Geopolitical tensions in other regions, particularly the Indo-Pacific, are also highlighted. New information further reinforces Russian offensive pressure, particularly in the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions, provides new details regarding the US-Ukraine minerals agreement with differing interpretations, highlights ongoing challenges with counter-drone technology for Russia, and further evidence of Ukraine's development and utilization of advanced drone capabilities. Significant political appointments in the US administration under Donald Trump have been announced. Reports of a fatal drone attack on a market in Oleshky in Kherson Oblast and detonations of delayed-action cluster munitions in Kyiv highlight the continued danger to civilians.

Significant New Developments:

Large-Scale Combined Attack on Crimea: Ukrainian formations are reportedly conducting a combined attack on the Crimean Peninsula using multiple groups of over 30 unmanned boats launched from the Danube estuary, moving towards Cape Tarkhankut, Yevpatoria, and Sevastopol. An unspecified number of drones have also been launched towards the peninsula. This suggests a significant and coordinated effort to target Russian assets in Crimea, potentially involving both naval and aerial unmanned systems. The inclusion of FPV drone carriers among the unmanned boats indicates a possible multi-layered attack strategy.
GRU "PRYMARY" Claims Destruction of Russian Radar Systems in Crimea: A unit of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) called "PRYMARY" claims to have destroyed several key Russian radar systems in Crimea, including an S-300V air defense system, "Obzor-3" radar, "Kasta-2E2" radar, ST-68 radar, and "Imbir" radar. This, if confirmed, represents a significant degradation of Russian air defense and surveillance capabilities in Crimea, potentially preceding or coinciding with the reported combined unmanned attack.
US Tests First Unmanned Fighter Prototypes: The US Air Force has officially begun ground testing of its first unmanned fighter prototypes (YFQ-42A and YFQ-44A) as part of the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program. This program aims to integrate autonomous systems into future air combat, with a focus on collaborative operations with manned fighters, affordability, and mass production. This development signifies a major step towards the future of air warfare and could have long-term implications for the balance of power.
Antonov Bridge Situation: Visuals of the Antonov Bridge are circulating, indicating its current state. Without further context or comparative imagery, the significance of this update is limited to acknowledging the continued focus on this strategic location.
Court Ruling on Religious Exemption from Military Service: A court in Ukraine has reportedly sentenced a man to three years in prison for failing to report for military service based on religious beliefs. This ruling clarifies the legal stance on religious exemptions during martial law in Ukraine and has implications for mobilization efforts.
Appointment of US Chargé d'affaires to Ukraine: Julia Davis has been appointed as the interim Chargé d'affaires of the US diplomatic mission in Ukraine. This appointment is a routine diplomatic procedure but highlights the ongoing US diplomatic presence and engagement with Ukraine.
Further Details on US-Ukraine Minerals Agreement: Reports from the White House, a Ukrainian expert, and a Ukrainian official provide further details and interpretations of the US-Ukraine minerals agreement. The White House frames it as a mutual partnership and a "strong message to Russia," highlighting US economic interest in Ukraine's future. A Ukrainian expert emphasizes the potential for developing Ukraine's mining industry, particularly in oil and gas, positioning Ukraine as a potential major supplier to the EU. An official from the Ukrainian Ministry of Economy indicates the joint investment fund could be operational within weeks or months after ratification and states that all profits will be reinvested in Ukraine until at least 2034. Подоляк adds that the agreement guarantees new deliveries of US weapons, including air defense systems, with their cost being credited to the joint fund. These differing perspectives highlight the complex nature and varying perceived benefits of the agreement.
European Countries Preparing New Sanctions Against Russia: The French Foreign Minister has stated that European countries are preparing a new package of sanctions against Russia. This indicates ongoing international pressure on Russia in response to the conflict.
Russian Claim of Storming Southern Pokrovsk: A Russian source claims that Russian forces are storming the southern part of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), indicating continued offensive actions on this key axis.
Russian Military Blogger Fundraising Appeal: A Russian military blogger is conducting a fundraising appeal for two Mavic 3 drones for paratroopers on the Zaporizhzhia direction. This highlights the continued reliance on public support and commercially available drones for military operations by Russian forces.
Incident in Novosibirsk: A man in Novosibirsk was fined for a review on a service that allegedly contained "negative assessment of a person based on nationality." This highlights potential issues with freedom of speech and the application of laws regarding incitement to hatred in Russia.

Frontline Dynamics and Activity:

Pokrovsk Direction: Remains the most active sector with intense Russian assault actions. Russian sources claim successful destruction of NATO-supplied equipment, infantry, and positions by the "Center" group of forces. This reinforces the ongoing narrative of costly Ukrainian defenses in this area. Alex Parker Returns reports the transfer of the 155th Marine Brigade and other personnel to the Pokrovsk area, anticipating a significant battle. This suggests a potential increase in the scale and intensity of fighting in this sector. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a captured Russian soldier on the Pokrovsk direction highlighting the intensity of FPV drone use and its devastating effects, alongside a warning against signing contracts with the Russian army. This firsthand account reinforces the lethality of drone warfare and provides insight into the morale of some Russian troops. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares video of the 255th regiment assaulting and destroying Ukrainian infantry near Pokrovsk. Colonelcassad claims Russian forces are storming the southern part of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk).
Southern Donetsk Direction: Continued intense fighting is reported with Russian claims of advances towards Bogatyr and near Otradnoe and Fyodorovka. Dnevnik Desantnika reports claimed Russian advances from Razliv, securing territory to the north, and continued assaults on Bogatyr with significant air support. This suggests a concentrated Russian effort in this sector. Colonelcassad reports the destruction of a UAV control point of the 46th Airmobile Brigade near Komar on the Shakhtyorsk direction by FPV drones of the "Vostok" group. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show a "mini-cemetery" of destroyed Ukrainian Western-made armored vehicles on the Southern Donetsk direction.
Toretsk (Konstantinovka) Direction: Heavy fighting persists with claimed Russian advances in Dyliyivka, near the 1st Dyliyivskyi pond, and in northern Shcherbinivka. Two Majors report that assault units of the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division, which took Tarasovka, are advancing further and have entrenched themselves in Novooleksandrivka. They also claim that assault troops of the 10th Guards Tank Regiment and the 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment have approached the outskirts of Oleksandropil and are moving further. This indicates a focused Russian push on this axis. Two Majors also share a video claiming "epic footage" of their entry into Novooleksandrivka with drone objective control, showing significant shelling and the alleged retreat of 20 Ukrainian infantry personnel. Сливочный каприз reports active hostilities in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) - Novoolenovka area, claiming an advance of up to 5 km on the eastern охват of Krasnoarmeysk in the northern direction and the clearing of Ukrainian positions in Novoolenovka's residential area. This report, referencing "Два майора" as a source, supports the claim of Russian advances in Novooleksandrivka (likely the same location as Novoolenovka). Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports a Russian breakthrough and near liberation of Novoolenovka, with Ukrainian military analysts allegedly confirming Russian occupation of about half the settlement and Ukrainian soldiers having left it completely. This further reinforces the claimed Russian success in this area. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА also shares the video and caption from "Два майора" regarding the claimed entry into Novooleksandrivka. Дневник Десантника reports on the Krasnoarmeysk direction, stating the situation is stabilizing near Uspenovka with continued expansion of territorial control, temporary withdrawal from Udachnoye for artillery/drone strikes, advances of 2 km west of Novoukrainka with drone resistance, and ongoing clearing of the eastern part of Lysovka with strikes on forward deployment points. This provides a more detailed view of the tactical situation across several settlements in this general area. Дневник Десантника also reports on the Krasnoarmeysk direction, claiming that tank crews of the 90th Division are clearing Nadezhdinka and pressuring Troitskoye, while assault groups of the 35th Brigade continue to storm the eastern part of Kotlyarovka. This indicates multiple points of Russian offensive activity on this broader axis. Colonelcassad reports that assault groups of the 33rd motorized rifle regiment entered the southern outskirts of Novoolenovka. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports that Russian forces are currently assaulting Torske from the north and attempting to consolidate on the northern outskirts of the village. Дневник Десантника reports continued battles for the northern part of Tarasovka, and in Elizavetovka, Russian forces are encircling the enemy from the south and north. Between Gorky and Dyliyivka, Russian drone operators are clearing tree lines. Russian forces continue to close the ring from Dyliyivka towards Gorky. From Druzhba, Russian forces have expanded their control zone by 600m. In Shcherbinivka, there is also an advance from Leonidivka. These reports add significant detail to the tactical situation in several locations on this extended axis.
Lyman Direction: Russian sources claim advances and the liberation of the settlement of Nove. Ukrainian forces are reported to be repelling assaults. Дневник Десантника reports that after the liberation of Nove, Russian forces are continuing pressure to the west, fighting for Redkodub after artillery processing, and driving out the enemy towards Zelena Dolyna and to the southeast. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports Russian forces are currently assaulting Torske from the north and attempting to consolidate on the northern outskirts of the village.
Chasiv Yar Direction: Russian forces claim consolidation of positions and fighting directly in Stupochky. Slivochnyy kapriz reports positional battles near Artemivsk (Bakhmut). Rybar reports that the "Burevestnik" detachment, celebrating its anniversary, operates in the Kursk border region and Chasiv Yar, highlighting their FPV drone work. Дневник Десантника reports fierce battles continue near the Dnipro pond. Paratroopers of the 299th Airborne Regiment of the 98th Division destroyed enemy infantry in the southern part of Chasiv Yar. Near Stupochky, Russian forces are trying to gain a foothold on the outskirts of the village. These reports provide more specific details on the locations of combat within this area.
Sumi Direction: Significant Russian claims of advances with airborne units allegedly pushing west and east of Oleshnya, taking the settlement, and advancing between Loknya and Belovody. Rybar reports that the "Burevestnik" detachment, celebrating its anniversary, operates in the Kursk border region and Chasiv Yar, highlighting their FPV drone work. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast, course towards Poltava Oblast. Дневник Десантника reports paratroopers of the 83rd Airborne Brigade have taken control of most of the settlement of Bilovody.
Kupiansk Direction: Ukrainian forces report repelling a Russian assault near Petropavlivka. Colonelcassad reports an R-18 "Baba Yaga" UAV dropping incendiary munitions near Stepovaya Novoselovka on the Boguslavsky direction was shot down by the "Kontora" group of the "West" group of forces. This indicates Russian counter-drone efforts in this area.
Velyka Novosilka Direction: Russian sources claim destruction of Ukrainian personnel and equipment and advances in Vilne Pole. Colonelcassad reports the destruction of a UAV control point of the 102nd Territorial Defense Brigade near Huliaipole on the Vremevsky direction by "Molniya" FPV drones of the "Vostok" group.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia Front): Heavy fighting continues. Colonelcassad previously claimed the destruction of a Ukrainian DRG in this area. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports that an enemy drone attacked a car in a frontline community in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, resulting in the car burning but no casualties. This highlights the continued threat of drones to civilian vehicles in frontline areas. Дневник Десантника reports a fundraising effort for two Mavic 3 drones for paratroopers on the Zaporizhzhia direction.
Kharkiv Direction: Ukrainian forces are repelling Russian attacks near Vovchansk. Russian artillery and mortar fire continues on border areas. Reports of a drone attack on Kharkiv. Russian MoD shares a video claiming FPV drone teams of the "Sever" Group of forces eliminated several "Baba Yaga"-type Ukrainian UAVs in the Kharkiv region. Дневник Десантника reports that on the Kharkiv direction, plans by the enemy to organize a provocation using chemical weapons were revealed, aiming to discredit the Russian Armed Forces.
Kursk Oblast (RU): Ongoing combat operations against Ukrainian forces in the border region, with confirmed involvement of North Korean troops. Putin claims Ukrainian forces have been driven out but remnants are hiding. Reports of civilian casualties in Rylsk from alleged Ukrainian UAV strike. Russian sources actively disseminate claims of Ukrainian "atrocities" in this area. Rybar reports that the "Burevestnik" detachment, celebrating its anniversary, operates in the Kursk border region and Chasiv Yar, highlighting their FPV drone work.
Belgorod Oblast (RU): Continued Ukrainian combat operations. Reports of drone attacks with casualties. Colonelcassad reports that Ukrainian forces crossed the border and occupied a small forest area north of Popovka. Старше Эдды and Kotsnews report on Ukrainian drone attacks on Valuyki targeting civilian vehicles, citing attacks yesterday as well.
Prydniprovskyi Direction: Russian airstrikes on Kherson and Tiahynka. Дневник Десантника reports an enemy temporary deployment point (PVD) was detected in a multi-story building in Kherson. Fighters of the 80th Arctic Brigade of the "Dnipro" group destroyed Ukrainian targets with attack drones.
Kherson Direction: Ukrainian artillery from the 39th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade is actively targeting Russian forces. Russian attempts to land on islands have been repelled. Russian sources claim Ukrainian FPV drone attacks on a market in Oleshky with alleged civilian casualties, with one fatality confirmed and another injured person reportedly dying in the hospital. Kotsnews utilizes the alleged Oleshky market attack to draw a parallel to the historical downing of the U-2 aircraft and link it to alleged Ukrainian "atrocities" on May 1st, furthering the information operation. Воин DV reports that the Russian MFA condemned the alleged Ukrainian attack on Oleshky as a "terrorist act." Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports several groups of drones through Kherson Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video showing the current state of the Antonov Bridge.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Reports of Russian UAV and artillery attacks resulting in civilian injuries and damage. Butusov Plus reports that Oleksiy Kyrychenko, the first deputy general director of a defense plant in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, has been arrested for 2 months without bail in a case involving 120,000 defective mines. Tsaplienko also reports on this, adding that the director of the Pavlohrad Chemical Plant, Leonid Shyman, has also been arrested for two months in the same case. This highlights internal Ukrainian efforts to address corruption and issues in the defense industry. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports several groups of drones through Kherson Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and strike UAVs are moving towards Dnipro.
Odesa: Colonelcassad shares videos claiming "Geran" (Shahed) drone arrivals in Odesa last night. This indicates continued Russian drone strikes on southern Ukraine.
Chernihiv Oblast: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares photos and eyewitness testimony regarding KAB strikes on residential areas in Senkivka, Karpovychi, and Bogdanove, describing the destructive power and impact on civilians, including a fatality in Bogdanove. This highlights the severe humanitarian impact of Russian guided aerial bomb usage in this region.
Poltava Oblast: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs from Sumy Oblast, course towards Poltava Oblast, and UAVs are moving towards Myrhorod.
Crimea: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the GRU unit "PRYMARY" destroyed several Russian radar systems in Crimea (S-300V, Obzor-3, Kasta-2E2, ST-68, Imbir). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports a combined attack on Crimea is underway with multiple groups of over 30 unmanned boats launched from the Danube estuary moving towards Cape Tarkhankut, Yevpatoria, and Sevastopol, along with an unspecified number of drones. FPV drone carriers are reportedly included in the unmanned boat groups.

Aerial and Naval Activity:

Drone Warfare: Pervasive use of drones by both sides. Ukrainian General Staff reports that for March and April, Ukrainian drones hit and destroyed over 160,000 enemy targets, emphasizing the growing effectiveness of Ukrainian unmanned systems. Russian sources continue to share videos of FPV drone operations and claim destruction of Ukrainian UAVs and control points. Colonelcassad reports supplying Mavic 3T and Mavic 3 Pro drones to reconnaissance units of the "Vostok" group. Rybar reports that the "Burevestnik" detachment, celebrating its anniversary, operates in the Kursk border region and Chasiv Yar, highlighting their FPV drone work. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video showcasing Russian reconnaissance drone work, including artillery adjustments and drops on enemy personnel. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a captured Russian soldier on the Pokrovsk direction highlighting the intensity of FPV drone use and its devastating effects. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares videos claiming the testing of a Ukrainian "Shahed" copy called "Batyar" and discusses its origins and the challenge of mass production. This indicates Ukrainian efforts to develop and field their own long-range strike drones. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video suggesting "someone has left the SVO" with a cryptic caption. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 also reports that Ukrainian optical fiber with a range of 30 km has gone into series production and that Russian sources have reported Ukrainian FPV drones on optical fiber 41 km from the front line. This indicates advancements in Ukrainian FPV drone capabilities, potentially extending their range and reducing susceptibility to jamming. Colonelcassad reports an R-18 "Baba Yaga" UAV dropping incendiary munitions near Stepovaya Novoselovka on the Boguslavsky direction was shot down. Старше Эдды and Kotsnews engage in a narrative about the range of FPV drones for both sides, noting the possibility of 50+ km range in the future. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast and several groups through Kherson Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAVs are moving towards Dnipro and Myrhorod. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports a combined attack on Crimea with multiple groups of over 30 unmanned boats and an unspecified number of drones, including FPV drone carriers. Дневник Десантника reports a fundraising effort for two Mavic 3 drones for paratroopers on the Zaporizhzhia direction.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Continued widespread use of KABs by Russian forces, with a notable increase in tempo reported. OTU "Luhansk" reports over 5000 KABs dropped in April, an increase from previous months. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares photos and eyewitness testimony detailing the devastating impact of KAB strikes on residential areas in Chernihiv Oblast.
Naval Situation: Russian missile carriers with "Kalibr" missiles remain in the Black and Mediterranean Seas. Reports indicate Russia is preparing for a landing operation in the area of the Dnipro Estuary. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports a combined attack on Crimea is underway with multiple groups of over 30 unmanned boats launched from the Danube estuary moving towards Cape Tarkhankut, Yevpatoria, and Sevastopol, along with an unspecified number of drones.

Diplomatic and Political Developments:

Peace Negotiations: Discussions around potential peace settlements continue, with varying statements from Russian and US officials. US Vice President J.D. Vance stated the US aims to bridge the positions of Ukraine and Russia in the next 100 days. Donald Trump has called on Putin to "stop shooting, sit down and sign a deal." Trump's special representative Kellogg rejects Putin's May 9th ceasefire proposal as "absurd" and advocates for a 30-day comprehensive truce. Bloomberg reports negotiations are at an impasse, with Putin insisting on controlling the four Ukrainian regions he claims to have annexed. TASS reports the US has stated it will cease mediation efforts in the absence of progress. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated Russia is ready for direct negotiations without preconditions and views the Victory Day ceasefire as part of this. Politico reports that British and French leaders have been trying to convince Trump that Putin is "leading him by the nose" by violating his announced ceasefires, and that these efforts appear to be having an effect, with Zelenskyy also influencing Trump's thinking. Janus Putkonen reports conflicting information from various channels regarding the US-Ukraine agreement, expressing confusion and a need for clarification from Moscow. This highlights the information warfare and uncertainty surrounding diplomatic developments.
US-Ukraine Relations: The US is reportedly ready to sign a minerals agreement with Ukraine. President Zelenskyy stated that the agreement has been signed and sent to the Verkhovna Rada for ratification, expressing interest in no delays, and noting it was a result of his meeting with Donald Trump at the Vatican. RBC-Ukraine reports that the US expects ratification within a week and that the investment fund could start operating in a month to a month and a half after ratification, citing First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko. Two Majors offer an opinion that the deal is primarily a PR move and legally favors the US. Tsaplienko shares a video of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating that Trump has given Zelenskyy a "royal flush" with the minerals agreement, suggesting it provides significant leverage for Ukraine in negotiations with Russia. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, citing a White House statement, provides details of the US-Ukraine minerals agreement, claiming US companies have "right of first night" to acquire resources, the established fund will receive 50% of royalties and fees, and the US will profit from investing these funds, while implying the US will not contribute to the fund. This offers a different perspective on the agreement, emphasizing perceived US leverage and benefit. Воин DV also reports on the US-Ukraine minerals agreement, citing Bloomberg and The Atlantic on privileged US access and Trump's statements on a "deal of the century," and mentions a Ukrainian MP's criticism of the agreement. This further reinforces the varying interpretations and potential implications of the agreement. RBC-Ukraine reports that the White House stated the US-Ukraine minerals agreement is a joint partnership that sends a "strong message to Russia" and benefits both countries. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Подоляк stated the agreement guarantees new supplies of US weapons, including air defense systems, with their cost being included in the joint fund, and profits will be reinvested in Ukraine until at least 2034. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports that the Ukrainian-American investment fund could be operational within weeks after ratification of the minerals agreement in the Verkhovna Rada, citing Svyrydenko. RBC-Ukraine also reports on the potential timeline for the investment fund. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Julia Davis has been appointed as the interim Chargé d'affaires of the US diplomatic mission in Ukraine. RBC-Ukraine also reports on Julia Davis's appointment.
Internal US Political Developments: Mike Waltz, Trump's National Security Advisor, and his deputy Alex Wong have reportedly been dismissed. TASS reports that Stephen Witkoff does not want to take the post and that Rubio and Christopher Landau are possible replacements. RBC-Ukraine also reports that Witkoff is not interested in the position. TASS reports that Donald Trump has stated Mike Waltz will be appointed as the US Permanent Representative to the UN. TASS also reports that Donald Trump stated Marco Rubio will become the Acting US Assistant to the President for National Security. RBC-Ukraine reports Trump dismissed Waltz and nominated him as UN Ambassador, with Rubio as Acting National Security Advisor. ASTRA also reports Rubio as Acting National Security Advisor and Waltz as UN Ambassador. Военкор Котенок also reports Trump confirmed Waltz's resignation and appointment as UN Permanent Representative, with Rubio as Acting National Security Advisor. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Rubio as Acting National Security Advisor and Waltz as UN Ambassador, citing Trump's statement. These reports confirm significant personnel changes in the US administration. РБК-Україна reports Rubio could become the interim advisor instead of Waltz, citing CNN.
Russian Rhetoric and Information Operations: Russian officials continue to make strong statements. Defense Minister Shoigu stated that any Western military presence in Ukraine would be considered a legitimate target. Russian sources are actively engaged in information operations, including claims of Ukrainian FPV drone attacks on a market in Oleshky with alleged civilian casualties, framing the US-Ukraine mineral deal negatively, and sharing propaganda related to PMC Wagner. Tucker Carlson has made claims accusing the Ukrainian government of attempting to kill certain individuals. Russian state media highlights events like May Day demonstrations in Paris and the reopening of the Sukhumi airport. Colonelcassad shares graphic content related to Ukrainian casualties in Kursk as part of a psychological operation. Russian sources continue to produce content focusing on the Russian armed forces' activities and perceived successes. Rybar reports on RuTube holding seminars for the 98th Guards Airborne Division on content creation and promotion in combat conditions. WarGonzo releases a special report on the "Cascade" drone brigade's intelligence work. Kotsnews uses the alleged Oleshky market attack to draw a historical parallel and further the narrative of Ukrainian "atrocities." Воин DV reports that the Russian MFA condemned the alleged Ukrainian attack on Oleshky as a "terrorist act," emphasizing the official Russian stance. Два майора shares a video featuring Russian military personnel congratulating on May 1st with rockets inscribed with "Peace! Labor! May!", attributing it to the Russian Aerospace Forces, indicating a propaganda effort linking traditional holidays with military action. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА discusses the importance of media work for military units, mentioning RuTube's seminars for the 98th Airborne Division on content creation and promotion in combat conditions, highlighting a push for increased information dissemination by the Russian military. Rybar reports on the detention of a Russia Today correspondent in Bucharest, Romania, who was there to cover the presidential elections, linking it to fears of losing the election by the ruling coalition and attempts to distract from potential falsifications. STERNENKO shares an image of text claiming the FSB director raised the issue of liquidating Ukrainian bloggers who raise large sums for FPV drones with Putin, highlighting the perceived threat of these bloggers' fundraising efforts. Два майора shares a photo claiming "Gerankis" (Shaheds) are being prepared, showing what appears to be a drone with a "Major's Bar" sticker, linking it to fundraising efforts. Старше Эдды and Kotsnews engage in a narrative about the range of FPV drones and who is targeting civilian vs. military targets. ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova called claims of Russian interference in Romanian elections "insanity and lies," and that the election situation is a "joke." БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of wounded Russian soldiers on crutches, labeling them "the elite of modern Russia," highlighting the human cost. Воин DV shares a historical photo of the Soviet flag being raised over the Reichstag and text emphasizing the unity of Soviet peoples in defeating fascism, likely for propaganda purposes related to Victory Day. ASTRA reports on a man in Novosibirsk fined for a review on a service, highlighting potential restrictions on freedom of speech in Russia.
Ukrainian Sanctions: President Zelenskyy announced new sanctions packages targeting entities and individuals supporting Russia.
Russian Labor Market: WarGonzo and Suverennaya Ekonomika publish a longread on the labor market situation in Russia.
Serbia: Operation Z reports that Serbian President Vucic promises to come to Moscow on May 9th, despite EU threats.
Slovakia: Воин DV reports that Slovakian Deputy Speaker of Parliament Gaspar expressed a desire to restore relations with Russia, not excluding visits by Russian representatives. This indicates potential shifts in diplomatic alignment.
Romania: ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova called claims of Russian interference in Romanian elections "insanity and lies." Rybar reports on the detention of a Russia Today correspondent covering the presidential elections. Rybar analyzes the upcoming Romanian presidential elections, highlighting the leading candidate and the fragmentation of the pro-European vote, suggesting the ruling coalition may use administrative resources to ensure their candidate wins.
France: The French Foreign Minister has stated that European countries are preparing a new package of sanctions against Russia.
Iran: TASS reports that the US hopes for a new round of negotiations with Iran in the near future, although the timing and location are not yet determined.
US Diplomatic Appointments: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Julia Davis has been appointed as the interim Chargé d'affaires of the US diplomatic mission in Ukraine. RBC-Ukraine also reports on Julia Davis's appointment.

Internal Russian Issues:

Economic Situation: Reuters reports Russia significantly revised its 2025 budget deficit forecast upwards. TASS reports the Russian government did not support a transport tax discount for law-abiding drivers.
Social Issues: Reports of arrests of police officers and taxi drivers at Sheremetyevo airport in Moscow for allegedly scamming military personnel. ASTRA reports an incident involving a "veteran of the SVO" who allegedly killed his wife and was released due to his status. ASTRA reports Telegram has removed five channels associated with Chuvash nationalists. The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs has proposed new grounds for granting asylum. Север.Реалии reports that Krysevich was arrested for 10 days for disobeying police after fingerprints confirmed he was not involved in a taxi driver attack. This highlights the continued focus on internal security and potential for arbitrary detention in Russia. ASTRA reports acccionist Pavel Krysevich was arrested for ten days for disobeying police, despite fingerprint evidence clearing him in a taxi driver attack, citing "emotional behavior and swearing." ASTRA reports on a man in Novosibirsk fined for a review on a service.
Internal Security: Reports of politically motivated sentences in Russia continue. A Russian Z-volunteer is facing investigation for illegally storing a grenade. ASTRA reports that investigators of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs will be able to freeze "suspicious financial operations" for up to 10 days to combat cybercrime. ASTRA reports that the Russian Guard spent 820 million rubles on Chinese "drone burners" that did not work, leading to fraud investigations and criminal cases. This indicates potential issues with military procurement and highlights corruption concerns within Russia.
Public Opinion: ASTRA reports on a Telegram channel called "What happened?" which collects expressions of bewilderment from liberals.

Support and Rehabilitation:

Ukraine's Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War met with families of soldiers. ASTRA reports on a contract soldier from Kazakhstan who fought for Russia, was freed in a prisoner exchange, and is now being sent back to the front despite his desire for a peaceful life.
In Kryvyi Rih, a large program for reconstructing hospitals and creating rehabilitation centers for military personnel is underway.
Russian military bloggers continue fundraising efforts for equipment and support for units and injured soldiers. Colonelcassad is fundraising for the eighth platoon of assault infantry and reports supplying drones to reconnaissance units. Дневник Десантника reports a fundraising effort for two Mavic 3 drones for paratroopers on the Zaporizhzhia direction.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has launched a survey in the "Army+" app to assess the accessibility of military hospitals.
The Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration is working on a project called "#TitansUA" to develop veteran policy.
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a captured Russian soldier on the Pokrovsk direction warning against signing contracts and highlighting the futility of the conflict. This provides a stark perspective on the human cost of the war from the Russian side. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of wounded Russian soldiers on crutches, highlighting the human cost of the conflict and labeling them "the elite of modern Russia" ironically.

Other Incidents:

Escalating conflict in southern Syria and widespread wildfires in Israel are reported.
Tensions between India and Pakistan have reportedly heightened.
TASS reports police used tear gas during a May Day demonstration in Paris. TASS also shares a video of a "Revolutionary May Day" demonstration in Berlin with participants setting off fireworks. Colonelcassad shares a video of traditional May Day protests and clashes with police in Paris.
A video is circulating purportedly showing the assassination attempt on Serhiy Sternenko in Kyiv. Sternenko confirms he was attacked and shot, has undergone surgery, and his life is not in danger. He notes the attacker had an illegal short-barreled weapon and criticizes the prohibition of such weapons for self-defense for Ukrainians. President Zelenskyy stated that all facts regarding the attack on Sternenko will be presented to the public. Dnevnik Desantnika reports on the assassination attempt, stating he was shot but not in danger, and notes the SBU claims a woman tried to shoot him, also mentioning accusations against Sternenko regarding embezzlement of donations and expressing regret the attempt was not successful. This incident has become a point of differing narratives. STERNENKO himself provides an update, stating he is okay, attributing the attack to Russians due to his information work and drone supply efforts (176,000+ FPVs), and calling for donations for further efforts against Russia. This directly links the attack to his activities supporting the Ukrainian military and highlights the scale of drone procurement efforts. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports on the assassination attempt on Serhiy Sternenko, confirming it was unsuccessful, and linking it to his significant contribution in supporting units with FPV drones, while also using the incident to criticize the lack of legal short-barreled weapon ownership for civilians.
ASTRA reports on a Ukrainian state project detailing 300 convicted collaborators awaiting transfer to Russia.
Butusov Plus reports the arrest of Oleksiy Kyrychenko, first deputy general director of a defense plant in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, for 2 months without bail in a case involving 120,000 defective mines. Tsaplienko also reports on this and the arrest of the director of the Pavlohrad Chemical Plant, Leonid Shyman, in the same case.
RBC-Ukraine reports that in Bornych, Darnytskyi district, Kyiv, explosions were heard, possibly due to delayed cluster munitions scattered during the night drone attack. This highlights the ongoing danger of unexploded ordnance. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of last night's "Shahed" strikes in the Kyiv suburb.
"Zone of the SVO" shares a video purportedly showing the impact of Russian FABs on Ukrainian positions.
"Chef Hayabusa" shares a video suggesting someone has left the "SVO".
TASS reports less than 1,200 vehicles are in the queue before the Crimean Bridge from the Taman side.
RBC-Ukraine reports that in McDonald's in Ukraine, the "Big Tasty" burger has been officially removed from the menu.
RBC-Ukraine reports possible delays at the Krakivets-Korczowa border crossing with Poland from May 8th to mid-June.
RBC-Ukraine reports the official exchange rate for the US dollar on May 2nd is 41.5945 UAH.
RBC-Ukraine reports that former US Vice President Harris criticized Trump for the first time since losing the election.
RBC-Ukraine reports that a Ukrainian flag was torn down in Poland during a pro-Russian politician's rally, and the Ukrainian Ambassador called it a deliberate provocation.
Slivochnyy kapriz reports positional battles near Artemivsk (Bakhmut). Slivochnyy kapriz also reports an artillery strike by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the positions of the Russian Armed Forces in the vicinity of Grygorivka and claims that the Russian Armed Forces have expanded their zone of control to the west of Grygorivka by more than 800 meters along the front. Colonelcassad reports that Russian forces expanded their zone of control west of Grygorivka in the DNR.
Operation Z reports that Serbian President Vucic promises to come to Moscow on May 9th, despite EU threats.
Operation Z, Voenkor Kotenok, and Tsaplienko report the US is sending decommissioned F-16s from Davis-Monthan airbase to Ukraine, likely for spare parts, transported by An-124s to Rzeszow, Poland. RBC-Ukraine also reports on this, citing The War Zone, stating the purpose is for spare parts. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports on the US sending decommissioned F-16s to Ukraine for spare parts, transported by An-124 from Arizona to Poland, citing The War Zone. This indicates logistical preparations for the arrival and sustainment of F-16s.
Kadyrov_95 shares a video of Ramzan Kadyrov visiting a new district in Grozny named after Vladimir Putin, highlighting construction progress and infrastructure development, framing it as a source of pride for Chechnya and Russia. This is a domestic propaganda effort.
Starter Edda reports on the Balikatan-2025 exercise involving the US, Philippines, Japan, and Australia, explicitly labeling it as an "anti-Chinese exercise" amidst regional tensions, highlighting the scale of the exercise and the focus on coastal defense and strikes on a decommissioned corvette. This demonstrates ongoing geopolitical maneuvering and military preparedness in the Indo-Pacific region, potentially impacting the global strategic landscape.
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports that an enemy drone attacked a car in a frontline community in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, resulting in the car burning but no casualties. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an air raid alert has been declared throughout Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
STERNENKO provides an update on the assassination attempt, stating he is okay, attributing the attack to Russians due to his information work and drone supply efforts (176,000+ FPVs), and calling for donations for further efforts against Russia.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares videos claiming the testing of a Ukrainian "Shahed" copy called "Batyar" and discusses its origins and the challenge of mass production.
Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports that Ukrainian optical fiber with a range of 30 km has gone into series production and that Russian sources have reported Ukrainian FPV drones on optical fiber 41 km from the front line.
Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video suggesting "someone has left the SVO" with a cryptic caption.
ASTRA reports that the Russian Guard spent 820 million rubles on Chinese "drone burners" that did not work, leading to fraud investigations and criminal cases.
Два майора shares a video featuring Russian military personnel congratulating on May 1st with rockets inscribed with "Peace! Labor! May!", attributing it to the Russian Aerospace Forces, indicating a propaganda effort linking traditional holidays with military action.
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА discusses the importance of media work for military units, mentioning RuTube's seminars for the 98th Airborne Division on content creation and promotion in combat conditions, highlighting a push for increased information dissemination by the Russian military.
Rybar reports on RuTube holding seminars for the 98th Guards Airborne Division on content creation and promotion in combat conditions.
Rybar reports that the "Burevestnik" detachment, celebrating its anniversary, operates in the Kursk border region and Chasiv Yar, highlighting their FPV drone work.
Воин DV reports that the Russian MFA condemned the alleged Ukrainian attack on Oleshky as a "terrorist act."
Воин DV reports that Slovakian Deputy Speaker of Parliament Gaspar expressed a desire to restore relations with Russia, not excluding visits by Russian representatives.
Воин DV also reports on the US-Ukraine minerals agreement, citing Bloomberg and The Atlantic on privileged US access and Trump's statements on a "deal of the century," and mentions a Ukrainian MP's criticism of the agreement. Воин DV shares a historical photo and text related to Victory Day.
Янус Путконен reports conflicting information from various channels regarding the US-Ukraine agreement, expressing confusion and a need for clarification from Moscow.
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a captured Russian soldier on the Pokrovsk direction highlighting the intensity of FPV drone use and its devastating effects, alongside a warning against signing contracts with the Russian army. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of wounded Russian soldiers on crutches.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares photos and eyewitness testimony regarding KAB strikes on residential areas in Senkivka, Karpovychi, and Bogdanove, Chernihiv Oblast.
ТАСС reports Donald Trump stated Mike Waltz will be appointed as the US Permanent Representative to the UN.
ТАСС reports Donald Trump stated Marco Rubio will become the Acting US Assistant to the President for National Security.
RBC-Ukraine reports Trump dismissed Waltz and nominated him as UN Ambassador, with Rubio as Acting National Security Advisor. РБК-Україна reports Rubio could become interim advisor.
ASTRA reports Rubio as Acting National Security Advisor and Waltz as UN Ambassador.
Военкор Котенок reports Trump confirmed Waltz's resignation and appointment as UN Permanent Representative, with Rubio as Acting National Security Advisor.
Оперативний ЗСУ reports Rubio as Acting National Security Advisor and Waltz as UN Ambassador, citing Trump's statement.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast, course towards Poltava Oblast, and several groups through Kherson Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAVs towards Dnipro and Myrhorod.
Дневник Десантника reports claimed Russian advances in Bilovody, near Tarasovka, Elizavetovka, between Gorky and Dyliyivka, from Druzhba, in Shcherbinivka, near Nadezhdinka, Troitskoye, Kotlyarovka, Redkodub, and towards Zelena Dolyna and Novyy Mir. Дневник Десантника reports battles continue near the Dnipro pond and in the southern part of Chasiv Yar and near Stupochky. Дневник Десантника reports an enemy PVD was detected in Kherson and Ukrainian targets were destroyed with attack drones. Дневник Десантника reports a fundraising effort for two Mavic 3 drones for paratroopers on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Дневник Десантника reports plans by the enemy to organize a provocation using chemical weapons were revealed on the Kharkiv direction.
Colonelcassad reports Russian forces expanded their zone of control west of Grygorivka in the DNR. Colonelcassad reports Ukrainian forces crossed the border and occupied a small forest area north of Popovka. Colonelcassad reports that assault groups of the 33rd motorized rifle regiment entered the southern outskirts of Novoolenovka. Colonelcassad reports Russian forces are storming the southern part of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show destroyed Ukrainian Western-made armored vehicles on the Southern Donetsk direction.
Rybar analyzes the upcoming Romanian presidential elections.
TASS reports the US hopes for new negotiations with Iran.
ASTRA reports on a man in Novosibirsk fined for a review.
French Foreign Minister states European countries are preparing new sanctions against Russia.
Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the GRU unit "PRYMARY" destroyed several Russian radar systems in Crimea.
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports a combined attack on Crimea is underway with unmanned boats and drones.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Pokrovsk Direction: Extremely high intensity combat. Russian forces claim significant advances and destruction of Ukrainian equipment. Alex Parker Returns reports the transfer of the 155th Marine Brigade and other personnel to the area, indicating a potential escalation. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a captured Russian soldier on this direction highlighting the intensity of FPV drone use and its effects. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares video of the 255th regiment assaulting and destroying Ukrainian infantry. Colonelcassad claims Russian forces are storming the southern part of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk).
Southern Donetsk Direction: Intense fighting, Russian claimed advances near Bogatyr and disruption of Ukrainian logistics. Dnevnik Desantnika claims Russian advances from Razliv and continued assaults on Bogatyr. Colonelcassad reports destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points near Komar and Huliaipole. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show destroyed Ukrainian Western-made armored vehicles.
Toretsk (Konstantinovka) Direction: Heavy fighting with claimed Russian advances. Two Majors report advances and entrenchment in Novooleksandrivka and approach to Oleksandropil, sharing video of the alleged entry into Novooleksandrivka. Сливочный каприз reports active hostilities in the Krasnoarmeysk - Novoolenovka area, claiming a 5 km advance on the eastern охват of Krasnoarmeysk and clearing of Ukrainian positions in Novoolenovka. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports a Russian breakthrough and near liberation of Novoolenovka with Ukrainian confirmation. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares the video and caption from "Два майора" regarding the claimed entry into Novooleksandrivka. Дневник Десантника reports on tactical developments near Uspenovka, Udachnoye, Novoukrainka, and Lysovka. Дневник Десантника also reports on advances near Nadezhdinka, Troitskoye, and Kotlyarovka. Colonelcassad reports entry into the southern outskirts of Novoolenovka. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports Russian forces assaulting Torske from the north and attempting to consolidate on the northern outskirts. Дневник Десантника reports battles near Tarasovka, Elizavetovka, between Gorky and Dyliyivka, from Druzhba, and in Shcherbinivka.
Lyman Direction: Reported Russian advances and liberation of Nove. Дневник Десантника reports continued pressure to the west after liberating Nove, fighting for Redkodub, and driving out the enemy towards Zelena Dolyna and to the southeast. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports Russian forces are currently assaulting Torske from the north and attempting to consolidate on the northern outskirts.
Chasiv Yar Direction: Russian forces claim fighting in Stupochky. Slivochnyy kapriz reports positional battles near Artemivsk (Bakhmut). Rybar reports that the "Burevestnik" detachment operates here. Дневник Десантника reports fierce battles near the Dnipro pond, in the southern part of Chasiv Yar, and near Stupochky.
Sumi Direction: Significant Russian claims of advances, including taking Oleshnya. Rybar reports that the "Burevestnik" detachment operates here. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs with a course towards Poltava Oblast. Дневник Десантника reports claimed Russian control of most of Bilovody.
Kupiansk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelling assaults. Colonelcassad reports an R-18 "Baba Yaga" UAV was shot down near Stepovaya Novoselovka on the Boguslavsky direction.
Velyka Novosilka Direction: Russian sources claim destruction of Ukrainian personnel and equipment and advances in Vilne Pole.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia Front): Heavy fighting. Colonelcassad previously claimed the destruction of a Ukrainian DRG. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports a drone attack on a car in a frontline community with the car burning and an air raid alert across the oblast. Дневник Десантника reports a fundraising effort for two Mavic 3 drones.
Kharkiv Direction: Russian attacks near Vovchansk. Artillery and mortar fire on border areas. Reports of drone attacks and KABs. Russian MoD claims elimination of Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" UAVs. Дневник Десантника reports plans for a chemical weapon provocation.
Kursk Oblast (RU): High combat activity in the border region. Confirmed North Korean troop involvement. Reports of civilian casualties and efforts to restore infrastructure. Russian sources actively disseminate claims of Ukrainian "atrocities." Rybar reports that the "Burevestnik" detachment operates here.
Belgorod Oblast (RU): Continued Ukrainian combat operations. Reports of drone attacks with casualties. Colonelcassad reports Ukrainian forces crossed the border and occupied a small forest area north of Popovka. Старше Эдды and Kotsnews report on Ukrainian drone attacks on Valuyki targeting civilian vehicles.
Prydniprovskyi Direction: Russian airstrikes on Kherson and Tiahynka. Дневник Десантника reports an enemy PVD was detected in Kherson and Ukrainian targets were destroyed.
Kherson Direction: Ukrainian artillery active. Russian attempts to land on islands repelled. Russian sources claim Ukrainian FPV drone attacks on a market in Oleshky with alleged civilian casualties, with two reported fatalities. Kotsnews uses the alleged Oleshky market attack for information operations. Воин DV reports Russian MFA condemnation. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports several groups of drones through Kherson Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video showing the current state of the Antonov Bridge.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Reports of Russian UAV and artillery attacks. A deputy director of a defense plant and the director of the Pavlohrad Chemical Plant have been arrested in a case involving defective mines. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports several groups of drones from Kherson Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and strike UAVs towards Dnipro.
Kyiv: Reports of assassination attempt on Serhiy Sternenko, who confirms he was attacked and shot. Explosions heard in Bornych, possibly due to delayed cluster munitions. STERNENKO provides an update, stating he is okay, attributing the attack to Russians due to his information work and drone supply efforts. RBC-Ukraine reports possible explosions from delayed cluster munitions in Bornych. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of last night's "Shahed" strikes in the Kyiv suburb. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports on the assassination attempt on Serhiy Sternenko.
Sudzha (Kursk Oblast, RU): Reports of civilian casualties and efforts to restore infrastructure. Russian sources disseminate claims of Ukrainian "atrocities."
Oleshky (Kherson Oblast, RU): Russian sources claim Ukrainian FPV drone attacks on a market with alleged civilian casualties, with two reported fatalities. Kotsnews uses the alleged Oleshky market attack for information operations. Воин DV reports Russian MFA condemnation.
Nove (Donetsk People's Republic): Russian Ministry of Defense claims the liberation of this settlement. Дневник Десантника reports continued pressure to the west after liberating Nove.
Chernihiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad Oblasts: Reported threat of strike UAVs. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares photos and eyewitness testimony regarding KAB strikes on residential areas in Senkivka, Karpovychi, and Bogdanove. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast, course towards Poltava Oblast, and UAVs towards Myrhorod.
Odesa: Colonelcassad shares videos claiming "Geran" (Shahed) drone arrivals last night.
Sukhumi (Abkhazia): Airport officially opened for regular flights from Moscow.
Paris (France): Reports of police using tear gas during a May Day demonstration. TASS shares a video. Colonelcassad shares a video.
Berlin (Germany): Reports of a "Revolutionary May Day" demonstration with fireworks. TASS shares a video.
Ukraine: Ukrainian state project detailing 300 convicted collaborators awaiting transfer to Russia. Ministry of Defense launched a survey on accessibility of military hospitals. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration working on veteran policy project. McDonald's removed Big Tasty burger from menu. Possible delays at Krakivets-Korczowa border crossing. Court ruled against religious exemption from military service. Ukrainian General Staff reports that for March and April, Ukrainian drones hit and destroyed over 160,000 enemy targets. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares videos claiming the testing of a Ukrainian "Shahed" copy called "Batyar". Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports that Ukrainian optical fiber with a range of 30 km has gone into series production and that Russian sources have reported Ukrainian FPV drones on optical fiber 41 km from the front line. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports on the assassination attempt on Serhiy Sternenko. RBC-Ukraine reports on a court ruling regarding religious exemption from military service. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Julia Davis appointed interim US Chargé d'affaires. RBC-Ukraine reports on Julia Davis's appointment. RBC-Ukraine reports on the US-Ukraine minerals agreement and the potential timeline for the investment fund. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on the US-Ukraine minerals agreement guaranteeing new weapon supplies.
Kryvyi Rih: Ongoing hospital reconstruction and military rehabilitation program.
Murom, Vladimir Oblast (Russia): Fire at a warehouse attributed to a falling UAV.
Voronezh Oblast (Russia): Russia claims to have intercepted 2 Ukrainian UAVs overnight.
Lipetsk Oblast (RU): A native of Central Asia stripped of Russian citizenship.
Kostiantynopil: DeepState reports the contact line near Kostiantynopil is being adjusted.
Berezivka: DeepState reports Russian forces occupied Berezivka. Дневник Десантника reports Russian forces advanced north of Berezivka.
Novomykhailivka: DeepState reports a Russian advance near Novomykhailivka. Дневник Десантника reports pressure towards Novyy Mir from Novomykhailivka.
Grygorivka: Slivochnyy kapriz reports an artillery strike by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the positions of the Russian Armed Forces in the vicinity and claims that the Russian Armed Forces have expanded their zone of control to the west by more than 800 meters along the front. Colonelcassad reports Russian forces expanded their zone of control west of Grygorivka.
Novooleksandrivka (likely same as Novoolenovka): Two Majors report that assault units of the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment have entrenched themselves. Сливочный каприз reports clearing of Ukrainian positions. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports a Russian breakthrough and near liberation. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares the video from "Два майора". Colonelcassad reports entry into the southern outskirts.
Oleksandropil: Two Majors report that assault troops of the 10th Guards Tank Regiment and the 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment have approached the outskirts.
Davis-Monthan airbase (US): Operation Z, Voenkor Kotenok, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and RBC-Ukraine report the US is sending decommissioned F-16s from this airbase to Ukraine, likely for spare parts. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports on this.
Rzeszow (Poland): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, RBC-Ukraine, and Оперативний ЗСУ report that An-124s transported F-16 fuselages from Davis-Monthan to this logistics hub.
Grozny (Chechnya, RU): Ramzan Kadyrov visits a new district named after Vladimir Putin, highlighting construction and infrastructure development.
South China Sea (Philippines, Japan, Australia): Starter Edda reports on the Balikatan-2025 military exercise, labeled as "anti-Chinese."
Uspenovka (Krasnoarmeysk direction): Дневник Десантника reports the situation is stabilizing and territory control is expanding.
Udachnoye (Krasnoarmeysk direction): Дневник Десантника reports temporary withdrawal and processing of enemy forces with artillery, mortars, and drones.
Novoukrainka (Krasnoarmeysk direction): Дневник Десантника reports advances of 2 km west along forest belts with drone resistance.
Lysovka (Krasnoarmeysk direction): Дневник Десантника reports ongoing clearing of the eastern part and strikes on forward deployment points.
Nadezhdinka (Krasnoarmeysk direction): Дневник Десантника reports clearing by the 90th Tank Division.
Troitskoye (Krasnoarmeysk direction): Дневник Десантника reports pressure by the 90th Tank Division.
Kotlyarovka (Krasnoarmeysk direction): Дневник Десантника reports assault groups of the 35th Brigade continue to storm the eastern part.
Popovka (Belgorod Oblast, RU): Colonelcassad reports Ukrainian forces crossed the border and occupied a small forest area north of Popovka.
Valuyki (Belgorod Oblast, RU): Старше Эдды and Kotsnews report on Ukrainian drone attacks on civilian vehicles.
Redkodub (Krasnolimansk direction): Дневник Десантника reports Russian forces are fighting for the village after artillery processing.
Zelena Dolyna (Krasnolimansk direction): Дневник Десантника reports Russian forces are driving out the enemy towards Zelena Dolyna.
Novyy Mir (Krasnolimansk direction): Дневник Десантника reports pressure from Novomykhailivka towards Novyy Mir.
Torske (Lyman direction): ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports Russian forces are currently assaulting Torske from the north and attempting to consolidate on the northern outskirts.
Senkivka (Chernihiv Oblast): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares photos and eyewitness testimony regarding KAB strikes on residential areas.
Karpovychi (Chernihiv Oblast): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares photos and eyewitness testimony regarding KAB strikes on residential areas.
Bogdanove (Chernihiv Oblast): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares photos and eyewitness testimony regarding KAB strikes on residential areas, including a fatality.
Bucharest (Romania): Rybar reports on the detention of a Russia Today correspondent covering the presidential elections and analyzes the upcoming elections.
Bilovody (Sumi Oblast): Дневник Десантника reports claimed Russian control of most of the settlement.
Tarasovka (Konstantinovka direction): Дневник Десантника reports continued battles for the northern part.
Elizavetovka (Konstantinovka direction): Дневник Десантника reports Russian forces are encircling the enemy from the south and north.
Gorky (Dzerzhinsk direction): Дневник Десантника reports Russian drone operators are clearing tree lines between Gorky and Dyliyivka, and Russian forces are closing the ring from Dyliyivka towards Gorky.
Dyliyivka (Dzerzhinsk direction): Дневник Десантника reports Russian drone operators are clearing tree lines between Gorky and Dyliyivka, and Russian forces are closing the ring from Dyliyivka towards Gorky.
Druzhba (Dzerzhinsk direction): Дневник Десантника reports Russian forces have expanded their control zone by 600m from Druzhba.
Shcherbinivka (Dzerzhinsk direction): Дневник Десантника reports an advance from Leonidivka in Shcherbinivka.
Leonidivka (Dzerzhinsk direction): Дневник Десантника reports an advance from Leonidivka in Shcherbinivka.
Kherson (Prydniprovskyi direction): Дневник Десантника reports an enemy PVD was detected and Ukrainian targets were destroyed.
Crimea: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the GRU unit "PRYMARY" destroyed several Russian radar systems. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports a combined attack on Crimea is underway.
Cape Tarkhankut (Crimea): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports unmanned boats are moving towards Cape Tarkhankut.
Yevpatoria (Crimea): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports unmanned boats are moving towards Yevpatoria.
Sevastopol (Crimea): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports the largest group of unmanned boats is moving towards Sevastopol.
Myrhorod (Poltava Oblast): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAVs are moving towards Myrhorod.
Dnipro (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAVs are moving towards Dnipro.
Antonov Bridge: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video showing the current state of the bridge.
Novosibirsk (Russia): ASTRA reports on a man fined for a review.
US: Два майора reports the US Air Force has started testing the first unmanned fighter prototypes.

Potential Future Developments

Continued Russian Offensive Pressure: Expect sustained Russian assaults, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis, with the reported transfer of the 155th Marine Brigade potentially indicating a major push. Continued pressure on the Southern Donetsk, Toretsk (Konstantinovka), Lyman, Sumy, and Chasiv Yar directions is likely. The reported Russian advances near Novooleksandrivka/Novoolenovka, if fully confirmed, could represent significant tactical gains. The claimed Russian advances in other areas like Nove, Berezivka, near Novomykhailivka, Grygorivka, Uspenovka, Nadezhdinka, Troitskoye, and Kotlyarovka, if confirmed, suggest a slow but persistent shift in territorial control in some areas. The reported Russian preparations for a landing operation in the Dnipro Estuary area suggest a potential new axis of active combat or a feint. Continued fighting for control of settlements like Redkodub and Torske is likely. The claimed Russian advances in Bilovody, near Tarasovka, Elizavetovka, between Gorky and Dyliyivka, from Druzhba, and in Shcherbinivka indicate localized gains on various sectors. The reported storming of southern Pokrovsk suggests a focus on urban combat in this key city.
Escalated Ukrainian Attacks on Crimea: The reported large-scale combined attack on Crimea with unmanned boats and drones, coupled with the claimed destruction of Russian radar systems, suggests a potential escalation of Ukrainian efforts to disrupt Russian military capabilities and control in the peninsula. Expect further strikes and attempts to degrade Russian air defense and naval assets in the Black Sea.
Persistent and Evolving Aerial and Naval Threats: Russia will likely continue widespread drone and guided aerial bomb attacks, with the reported increase in KAB usage and recent strikes in Odesa and Chernihiv Oblast being a concern. The documented impact of KABs on civilian areas in Chernihiv Oblast highlights the severe humanitarian consequences of this tactic. The reported presence of strike UAVs heading towards Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts indicates continued targeting of Ukrainian territory. Ukrainian forces will continue efforts to counter these attacks, as seen with the reported shooting down of a "Baba Yaga" drone, and will likely increase their own drone operations, as indicated by the reported high number of enemy targets hit in March and April and the testing of the "Batyar" strike drone. The reported development and series production of Ukrainian FPV drones with extended range via optical fiber could significantly impact tactical operations and Russian countermeasures. The claimed increased range of FPV drones for both sides suggests an evolving tactical landscape. The reported Russian preparations for a landing operation could involve increased naval activity in the Black Sea. The reported continued Ukrainian drone activity in Russian border regions and further inland indicates the ongoing threat to Russian territory. The potential for delayed cluster munitions to detonate, as reported in Kyiv, highlights the lingering dangers in areas previously subjected to attacks.
Increased Diplomatic Messaging and Information Operations: Expect continued emphasis from Russian sources on readiness for negotiations, linked to alleged Ukrainian vulnerabilities or military limitations. Counter-messaging from Ukraine is also likely, focusing on Russian aggression and the need for sustained international support. Trump's statements and the reported impasse in negotiations will likely be central to diplomatic discourse. Information operations surrounding events like the alleged Oleshky market attack (with continued official condemnation from Russia), the US-Ukraine mineral deal (with varying interpretations and emphasis on perceived leverage), and the dismissal and appointment of US officials are likely to continue. Russia will likely continue to promote narratives highlighting its military successes and depicting Ukraine as struggling, including through media like the RuTube seminars and the "Cascade" brigade report, and symbolic actions like the May 1st rocket inscriptions and the "Kursk Battle" propaganda film. The reported internal discussions and bewilderment in Russia about the current situation could become a more prominent theme in information operations. The Serbian President's planned visit to Moscow despite EU pressure is a notable diplomatic development reflecting complex international relationships and potentially a point of leverage for Russia. Slovakia's reported desire to restore relations with Russia could indicate a shifting dynamic in European perspectives. Russian claims of interference in Romanian elections and the detention of a journalist covering them highlight ongoing information warfare and potential attempts to influence political processes in other countries. Ukrainian efforts to highlight Russian targeting of civilians with KABs in Chernihiv Oblast and the human cost of the conflict (e.g., wounded soldiers) are likely to continue as counter-information operations. The appointment of a new interim US Chargé d'affaires in Ukraine signifies the continuation of diplomatic engagement.
Focus on Internal Russian Security and Information Operations: Russian authorities will likely continue to highlight alleged Ukrainian sabotage and internal issues for propaganda and to justify security measures, as seen with the arrest of Krysevich and the incident in Novosibirsk. Efforts to control information flow are likely to continue, as seen with the criminal case against Dmitry Bykov and the emphasis on media training for military units. The proposed legislation on freezing financial operations suggests a focus on combating cybercrime. The labor market situation in Russia could become a more significant internal issue. The reported issues with ineffective Chinese counter-drone technology and related fraud investigations highlight potential vulnerabilities in Russian procurement and internal corruption issues. The alleged FSB discussion about liquidating Ukrainian bloggers highlights a potential escalation in tactics aimed at disrupting Ukrainian support networks and the information space. The historical narrative related to Victory Day is likely to be amplified in Russian state media.
Advancements in Unmanned Systems Development: The US testing of unmanned fighter prototypes signals a significant step in the development of advanced unmanned aerial systems. This could lead to the integration of these platforms into future air combat operations, potentially changing the dynamics of air warfare and requiring other nations to develop countermeasures.
Logistical Preparations for F-16s: The reported transportation of F-16 fuselages to Poland for use as spare parts suggests active logistical preparations for the eventual operation of F-16 aircraft by Ukraine. This could become a more significant factor in the conflict once the aircraft are operational, improving sustainment capabilities.
Continued Humanitarian Impact: Ongoing fighting and aerial attacks will likely continue to result in civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure, particularly in frontline areas and targeted regions, as seen with the drone attack on a car in Zaporizhzhia and the devastating impact of KABs in Chernihiv Oblast. Efforts to address the needs of wounded soldiers and veterans will continue to be important. The captured Russian soldier's testimony highlights the human cost of the war from the Russian side. The reported re-deployment of a returned Kazakh POW by Russia raises concerns about the treatment of returned prisoners and could impact future exchanges. The ongoing discovery of bodies near border rivers highlights the tragic humanitarian consequences of the conflict and attempts to evade it.
Development and Deployment of Unmanned Systems and Countermeasures: The continued showcase of drone operations and claimed destruction of equipment by both sides indicates the ongoing importance of unmanned systems and electronic warfare. The reported increase in Ukrainian drone effectiveness and the focus on destroying enemy drone operators suggest an evolving tactical landscape. The development of Ukrainian "Shahed" copies and FPV drones with extended range indicates a focus on developing asymmetric capabilities. Russian issues with acquiring effective counter-drone technology could impact their ability to mitigate Ukrainian drone threats. The increasing range of FPV drones for both sides could significantly alter tactical engagements and targeting patterns.
Internal Ukrainian Developments: The Ukrainian state project on convicted collaborators highlights a focus on internal issues and potential prisoner exchanges. The ongoing hospital reconstruction and rehabilitation program in Kryvyi Rih indicates a focus on supporting military personnel. The arrests of defense plant officials on charges related to defective mines highlight ongoing efforts to address corruption and inefficiencies in the defense industry. The attack on Serhiy Sternenko and the ongoing investigation are likely to remain a focus of internal attention, with Sternenko linking it to his efforts supporting the military and fundraising for drones. Criticisms regarding civilian access to short-barreled weapons are also a notable internal discussion. The court ruling on religious exemption from military service provides legal clarity on this issue during martial law.
Geopolitical Shifts: The reported Balikatan-2025 exercise involving the US, Philippines, Japan, and Australia highlights ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific region, which could have indirect implications for the conflict in Ukraine by influencing the strategic focus and resource allocation of key international actors. The planned visit of the Serbian President to Moscow despite EU pressure and Slovakia's reported desire to restore relations with Russia are notable diplomatic developments reflecting complex international relationships. Changes in US administration personnel, including the appointment of a new Acting National Security Advisor and UN Ambassador, could potentially influence US foreign policy and approach to the conflict. The US hopes for new negotiations with Iran indicate ongoing diplomatic efforts in other regions. The analysis of Romanian presidential elections highlights the intersection of domestic politics and geopolitical alignment.
Economic and Resource Implications of US-Ukraine Agreement: The US-Ukraine minerals agreement and the planned investment fund could significantly impact Ukraine's economic prospects and resource control, potentially influencing the long-term strategic landscape and Russia's motivations. The guarantee of new US weapon supplies being linked to the agreement underscores the intertwined nature of economic and military support.
Sanctions Pressure: The preparation of a new package of sanctions against Russia by European countries indicates continued international efforts to pressure Russia economically.
Routine Diplomatic Appointments: The appointment of an interim US Chargé d'affaires to Ukraine is a standard diplomatic procedure but signifies the continuation of official US representation.

Potential Indicators

Observable changes in the intensity or direction of Russian ground assaults on the Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, Toretsk (Konstantinovka), Lyman, Sumy, and Chasiv Yar axes, including verification of claimed advances and territorial control in areas like Nove, Berezivka, near Novomykhailivka, Novooleksandrivka/Novoolenovka, Oleksandropil, Grygorivka, Uspenovka, Udachnoye, Novoukrainka, Lysovka, Nadezhdinka, Troitskoye, Kotlyarovka, Redkodub, Torske, Bilovody, Tarasovka, Elizavetovka, between Gorky and Dyliyivka, from Druzhba, and in Shcherbinivka. Any observable actions related to the reported Russian preparations for a landing operation in the Dnipro Estuary area.
Confirmation and assessment of the impact of the reported Ukrainian combined unmanned attack on Crimea, including damage to Russian naval assets, infrastructure, and air defense systems, and the effectiveness of Russian countermeasures. Independent verification of the claimed destruction of Russian radar systems by the GRU unit "PRYMARY."
Reports of successful defensive actions and claimed Russian losses by Ukrainian forces on key axes, supported by visual evidence. Independent verification of claimed destruction of Russian equipment and the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes, including the claimed number of enemy targets hit in March and April. Reports on the operational use and effectiveness of Ukrainian "Batyar" strike drones and FPV drones with extended range. Visual confirmation of Ukrainian control of the forest area north of Popovka. The outcome of the fundraising effort for Mavic 3 drones for Russian paratroopers.
Confirmation of missile launches and impacts, particularly from Russian tactical aviation and drones, and any new targeting patterns, including further strikes in Odesa, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Documented evidence of civilian casualties and damage from KAB strikes in Chernihiv Oblast and other regions. Reports of successful air defense engagements and counter-drone actions by both sides. Evidence of delayed detonations of cluster munitions in Kyiv or other areas.
Further reports or evidence of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory, particularly targeting military-industrial facilities and logistics, including any further attacks on Valuyki. Claimed interceptions by Russian forces.
Changes in the rhetoric or official stance of Russian and Ukrainian officials regarding peace negotiations, and any statements or actions from Donald Trump impacting this. Any follow-up on the US statement about ceasing mediation efforts. Further reactions and implementation details regarding the US-Ukraine mineral agreement and the expected ratification process in Ukraine, and the timeline for the investment fund to become operational. Clarification on the specifics and implications of the agreement from independent sources.
Statements or actions from Marco Rubio or Mike Waltz in their new roles that are relevant to the conflict in Ukraine.
Continued dissemination of specific information operations by Russia regarding military successes, casualties, and external support, including narratives surrounding the alleged Oleshky market attack and the US-Ukraine mineral deal. Analysis of the effectiveness and reach of media content produced by military units trained by RuTube. Further propaganda related to the "Kursk Battle" or other narratives. Further information regarding the claimed chemical weapon provocation on the Kharkiv direction.
Independent verification or detailed reporting on alleged civilian casualties and damage from reported attacks in affected oblasts and the claimed Oleshky market attack. Reports of damage or casualties from drone attacks on vehicles in frontline areas.
Any observable impact of the anti-drone work in affected areas on the effectiveness of the Russian attacks, including reports on the functionality of acquired counter-drone systems. Updates on fraud investigations related to military procurement.
Further reports on the progress and outcomes of the US testing of unmanned fighter prototypes and any indications of potential deployment or impact on air combat doctrine.
Further reports on the transportation and arrival of F-16 parts in Poland or Ukraine, and any indications of assembly or preparation of operational F-16 aircraft.
Further details and legal proceedings regarding the arrests of defense plant officials in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Any follow-up on the reported assassination attempt on Serhiy Sternenko and the ongoing investigation. Further actions or statements by Sternenko related to his activities supporting the military. Any changes in the discussion or legislation regarding civilian access to short-barreled weapons in Ukraine.
Changes in the scale or involvement of external actors in the conflict in southern Syria.
Further escalation or de-escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan and any international response.
Announcement of a referendum or official process regarding the renaming of Volgograd.
Increased frequency or prominence of historical narratives in Russian state media or official statements.
Responses from Western governments to Russian Defense Minister Shoigu's statements regarding military presence and targets in Ukraine.
More consistent or official statements from Russia regarding potential US involvement or control at the ZNPP.
Feedback from Ukrainian military personnel regarding the availability and quality of halala and kosher rations.
The successful deployment and operational use of the UAV complex acquired through the fundraising campaign.
Further legal proceedings against Dmitry Bykov in Russia.
Continued sharing and analysis of videos showcasing drone effectiveness and tactics by both sides.
The impact of increased FPV drone range (30+ km) on targeting patterns and battlefield tactics for both sides. Reports of FPV drone engagements at longer ranges.
Potential implications of the claimed destruction of a Ukrainian DRG on Ukrainian special operations capabilities in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Reports on the progress and outcomes of the Balikatan-2025 exercise and reactions from China.
Any observable impact of the reopened Donetsk railway station.
Further reports on the financial situation of ASTRA.
Statements or actions from Slovakia regarding their expressed desire to restore relations with Russia.
Developments regarding the detention of the Russia Today correspondent in Romania and any international reactions. Further reports or investigations into alleged Russian interference in Romanian elections.
Any follow-up on the alleged FSB discussion about liquidating Ukrainian bloggers, including any concrete actions or increased threats against specific individuals.
Changes in the reported number of vehicles in the queue before the Crimean Bridge.
Further reports or visual evidence of wounded Russian soldiers returning from the front.
Statements or actions related to the removal of the Big Tasty burger from McDonald's in Ukraine, and any public reaction.
Reports on potential delays at the Krakivets-Korczowa border crossing with Poland.
Public statements or reactions from former US Vice President Harris regarding Donald Trump.
Any further incidents or diplomatic fallout from the tearing down of a Ukrainian flag in Poland.
Observable changes in the status or activity at military bases mentioned, such as Davis-Monthan airbase and Rzeszow airport.
Further details and implementation of the new package of sanctions against Russia by European countries.
Progress and outcomes of the potential new round of negotiations between the US and Iran.
Any observable impact of the court ruling on religious exemption from military service on mobilization efforts in Ukraine.
Statements or actions by Julia Davis in her role as interim US Chargé d'affaires in Ukraine.
Reports on the impact of the incident in Novosibirsk on freedom of expression in Russia.

Situation Report