Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 1, 2025, 17:33 UTC)
Updated Situation
Intense ground combat and pervasive drone warfare continue across multiple operational areas, with a notable increase in Russian claims of localized advances and successful strikes. The widespread use of Russian drones and aerial bombs impacting Ukrainian territory remains a significant threat. Diplomatic activity surrounding the conflict and internal developments in both Russia and Ukraine are also reported. The confirmed deployment of North Korean troops to Kursk Oblast continues to be a factor. Geopolitical tensions in other regions, particularly the Indo-Pacific, are also highlighted.
Frontline Dynamics and Activity:
Pokrovsk Direction: Remains the most active sector with intense Russian assault actions. Russian sources claim successful destruction of NATO-supplied equipment, infantry, and positions by the "Center" group of forces. This reinforces the ongoing narrative of costly Ukrainian defenses in this area.
Southern Donetsk Direction: Continued intense fighting is reported with Russian claims of advances towards Bogatyr and near Otradnoe and Fyodorovka. Dnevnik Desantnika reports claimed Russian advances from Razliv, securing territory to the north, and continued assaults on Bogatyr with significant air support. This suggests a concentrated Russian effort in this sector. Colonelcassad reports the destruction of a UAV control point of the 46th Airmobile Brigade near Komar on the Shakhtyorsk direction by FPV drones of the "Vostok" group.
Toretsk (Konstantinovka) Direction: Heavy fighting persists with claimed Russian advances in Dyliyivka, near the 1st Dyliyivskyi pond, and in northern Shcherbinivka. Two Majors report that assault units of the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division, which took Tarasovka, are advancing further and have entrenched themselves in Novooleksandrivka. They also claim that assault troops of the 10th Guards Tank Regiment and the 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment have approached the outskirts of Oleksandropil and are moving further. This indicates a focused Russian push on this axis. Two Majors also share a video claiming "epic footage" of their entry into Novooleksandrivka with drone objective control, showing significant shelling and the alleged retreat of 20 Ukrainian infantry personnel.
Lyman Direction: Russian sources claim advances and the liberation of the settlement of Nove. Ukrainian forces are reported to be repelling assaults.
Chasiv Yar Direction: Russian forces claim consolidation of positions and fighting directly in Stupochky. Slivochnyy kapriz reports positional battles near Artemivsk (Bakhmut).
Sumi Direction: Significant Russian claims of advances with airborne units allegedly pushing west and east of Oleshnya, taking the settlement, and advancing between Loknya and Belovody.
Kupiansk Direction: Ukrainian forces report repelling a Russian assault near Petropavlivka.
Velyka Novosilka Direction: Russian sources claim destruction of Ukrainian personnel and equipment and advances in Vilne Pole. Colonelcassad reports the destruction of a UAV control point of the 102nd Territorial Defense Brigade near Huliaipole on the Vremevsky direction by "Molniya" FPV drones of the "Vostok" group.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia Front): Heavy fighting continues. Colonelcassad previously claimed the destruction of a Ukrainian DRG in this area.
Kharkiv Direction: Ukrainian forces are repelling Russian attacks near Vovchansk. Russian artillery and mortar fire continues on border areas. Reports of a drone attack on Kharkiv. Russian MoD shares a video claiming FPV drone teams of the "Sever" Group of forces eliminated several "Baba Yaga"-type Ukrainian UAVs in the Kharkiv region.
Kursk Oblast (RU): Ongoing combat operations against Ukrainian forces in the border region, with confirmed involvement of North Korean troops. Putin claims Ukrainian forces have been driven out but remnants are hiding. Reports of civilian casualties in Rylsk from alleged Ukrainian UAV strike. Russian sources actively disseminate claims of Ukrainian "atrocities" in this area.
Belgorod Oblast (RU): Continued Ukrainian combat operations. Reports of drone attacks with casualties.
Prydniprovskyi Direction: Russian airstrikes on Kherson and Tiahynka.
Kherson Direction: Ukrainian artillery from the 39th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade is actively targeting Russian forces. Russian attempts to land on islands have been repelled. Russian sources claim Ukrainian FPV drone attacks on a market in Oleshky with alleged civilian casualties, with one fatality confirmed and another injured person reportedly dying in the hospital. Kotsnews utilizes the alleged Oleshky market attack to draw a parallel to the historical downing of the U-2 aircraft and link it to alleged Ukrainian "atrocities" on May 1st, furthering the information operation.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Reports of Russian UAV and artillery attacks resulting in civilian injuries and damage. Butusov Plus reports that Oleksiy Kyrychenko, the first deputy general director of a defense plant in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, has been arrested for 2 months without bail in a case involving 120,000 defective mines. Tsaplienko also reports on this, adding that the director of the Pavlohrad Chemical Plant, Leonid Shyman, has also been arrested for two months in the same case. This highlights internal Ukrainian efforts to address corruption and issues in the defense industry.
Aerial and Naval Activity:
Drone Warfare: Pervasive use of drones by both sides. Ukrainian General Staff reports that for March and April, Ukrainian drones hit and destroyed over 160,000 enemy targets, emphasizing the growing effectiveness of Ukrainian unmanned systems. Russian sources continue to share videos of FPV drone operations and claim destruction of Ukrainian UAVs and control points. Colonelcassad reports supplying Mavic 3T and Mavic 3 Pro drones to reconnaissance units of the "Vostok" group.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Continued widespread use of KABs by Russian forces, with a notable increase in tempo reported. OTU "Luhansk" reports over 5000 KABs dropped in April, an increase from previous months.
Naval Situation: Russian missile carriers with "Kalibr" missiles remain in the Black and Mediterranean Seas. Reports indicate Russia is preparing for a landing operation in the area of the Dnipro Estuary.
Diplomatic and Political Developments:
Peace Negotiations: Discussions around potential peace settlements continue, with varying statements from Russian and US officials. US Vice President J.D. Vance stated the US aims to bridge the positions of Ukraine and Russia in the next 100 days. Donald Trump has called on Putin to "stop shooting, sit down and sign a deal." Trump's special representative Kellogg rejects Putin's May 9th ceasefire proposal as "absurd" and advocates for a 30-day comprehensive truce. Bloomberg reports negotiations are at an impasse, with Putin insisting on controlling the four Ukrainian regions he claims to have annexed. TASS reports the US has stated it will cease mediation efforts in the absence of progress. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated Russia is ready for direct negotiations without preconditions and views the Victory Day ceasefire as part of this. Politico reports that British and French leaders have been trying to convince Trump that Putin is "leading him by the nose" by violating his announced ceasefires, and that these efforts appear to be having an effect, with Zelenskyy also influencing Trump's thinking.
US-Ukraine Relations: The US is reportedly ready to sign a minerals agreement with Ukraine. President Zelenskyy stated that the agreement has been signed and sent to the Verkhovna Rada for ratification, expressing interest in no delays, and noting it was a result of his meeting with Donald Trump at the Vatican.RBC-Ukraine reports that the US expects ratification within a week and that the investment fund could start operating in a month to a month and a half after ratification, citing First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko.Two Majors offer an opinion that the deal is primarily a PR move and legally favors the US.Tsaplienko shares a video of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating that Trump has given Zelenskyy a "royal flush" with the minerals agreement, suggesting it provides significant leverage for Ukraine in negotiations with Russia.
Internal US Political Developments: Mike Waltz, Trump's National Security Advisor, and his deputy Alex Wong have reportedly been dismissed. TASS reports that Stephen Witkoff does not want to take the post and that Rubio and Christopher Landau are possible replacements.RBC-Ukraine also reports that Witkoff is not interested in the position.
Russian Rhetoric and Information Operations: Russian officials continue to make strong statements. Defense Minister Shoigu stated that any Western military presence in Ukraine would be considered a legitimate target. Russian sources are actively engaged in information operations, including claims of Ukrainian FPV drone attacks on a market in Oleshky with alleged civilian casualties, framing the US-Ukraine mineral deal negatively, and sharing propaganda related to PMC Wagner. Tucker Carlson has made claims accusing the Ukrainian government of attempting to kill certain individuals. Russian state media highlights events like May Day demonstrations in Paris and the reopening of the Sukhumi airport. Colonelcassad shares graphic content related to Ukrainian casualties in Kursk as part of a psychological operation. Russian sources continue to produce content focusing on the Russian armed forces' activities and perceived successes. Rybar reports on RuTube holding seminars for the 98th Guards Airborne Division on content creation and promotion in combat conditions. WarGonzo releases a special report on the "Cascade" drone brigade's intelligence work. Kotsnews uses the alleged Oleshky market attack to draw a historical parallel and further the narrative of Ukrainian "atrocities."
Ukrainian Sanctions: President Zelenskyy announced new sanctions packages targeting entities and individuals supporting Russia.
Russian Labor Market: WarGonzo and Suverennaya Ekonomika publish a longread on the labor market situation in Russia.
Serbia:Operation Z reports that Serbian President Vucic promises to come to Moscow on May 9th, despite EU threats.
Internal Russian Issues:
Economic Situation: Reuters reports Russia significantly revised its 2025 budget deficit forecast upwards. TASS reports the Russian government did not support a transport tax discount for law-abiding drivers.
Social Issues: Reports of arrests of police officers and taxi drivers at Sheremetyevo airport in Moscow for allegedly scamming military personnel. ASTRA reports an incident involving a "veteran of the SVO" who allegedly killed his wife and was released due to his status. ASTRA reports Telegram has removed five channels associated with Chuvash nationalists. The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs has proposed new grounds for granting asylum.
Internal Security: Reports of politically motivated sentences in Russia continue. A Russian Z-volunteer is facing investigation for illegally storing a grenade. ASTRA reports that investigators of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs will be able to freeze "suspicious financial operations" for up to 10 days to combat cybercrime.
Public Opinion: ASTRA reports on a Telegram channel called "What happened?" which collects expressions of bewilderment from liberals.
Support and Rehabilitation:
Ukraine's Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War met with families of soldiers. ASTRA reports on a contract soldier from Kazakhstan who fought for Russia, was freed in a prisoner exchange, and is now being sent back to the front despite his desire for a peaceful life.
In Kryvyi Rih, a large program for reconstructing hospitals and creating rehabilitation centers for military personnel is underway.
Russian military bloggers continue fundraising efforts for equipment and support for units and injured soldiers. Colonelcassad is fundraising for the eighth platoon of assault infantry. Rybar reports on the financial difficulties of ASTRA.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has launched a survey in the "Army+" app to assess the accessibility of military hospitals.
The Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration is working on a project called "#TitansUA" to develop veteran policy.
Other Incidents:
Escalating conflict in southern Syria and widespread wildfires in Israel are reported.
Tensions between India and Pakistan have reportedly heightened.
TASS reports police used tear gas during a May Day demonstration in Paris. TASS also shares a video of a "Revolutionary May Day" demonstration in Berlin with participants setting off fireworks.
A video is circulating purportedly showing the assassination attempt on Serhiy Sternenko in Kyiv. Sternenko confirms he was attacked and shot, has undergone surgery, and his life is not in danger. He notes the attacker had an illegal short-barreled weapon and criticizes the prohibition of such weapons for self-defense for Ukrainians. President Zelenskyy stated that all facts regarding the attack on Sternenko will be presented to the public. Dnevnik Desantnika reports on the assassination attempt, stating he was shot but not in danger, and notes the SBU claims a woman tried to shoot him, also mentioning accusations against Sternenko regarding embezzlement of donations and expressing regret the attempt was not successful. This incident has become a point of differing narratives.
ASTRA reports on a Ukrainian state project detailing 300 convicted collaborators awaiting transfer to Russia.
Butusov Plus reports the arrest of Oleksiy Kyrychenko, first deputy general director of a defense plant in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, for 2 months without bail in a case involving 120,000 defective mines. Tsaplienko also reports on this and the arrest of the director of the Pavlohrad Chemical Plant, Leonid Shyman, in the same case.
RBC-Ukraine reports that in Bornych, Darnytskyi district, Kyiv, explosions were heard, possibly due to delayed cluster munitions scattered during the night drone attack. This highlights the ongoing danger of unexploded ordnance.
"Zone of the SVO" shares a video purportedly showing the impact of Russian FABs on Ukrainian positions.
"Chef Hayabusa" shares a video suggesting someone has left the "SVO".
TASS reports less than 1,200 vehicles are in the queue before the Crimean Bridge from the Taman side.
RBC-Ukraine reports that in McDonald's in Ukraine, the "Big Tasty" burger has been officially removed from the menu.
RBC-Ukraine reports possible delays at the Krakivets-Korczowa border crossing with Poland from May 8th to mid-June.
RBC-Ukraine reports the official exchange rate for the US dollar on May 2nd is 41.5945 UAH.
RBC-Ukraine reports that former US Vice President Harris criticized Trump for the first time since losing the election.
RBC-Ukraine reports that a Ukrainian flag was torn down in Poland during a pro-Russian politician's rally, and the Ukrainian Ambassador called it a deliberate provocation.
Slivochnyy kapriz reports positional battles near Artemivsk (Bakhmut). Slivochnyy kapriz also reports an artillery strike by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the positions of the Russian Armed Forces in the vicinity of Grygorivka and claims that the Russian Armed Forces have expanded their zone of control to the west of Grygorivka by more than 800 meters along the front.
Operation Z shares information from Military Correspondents of the Russian Spring claiming that the US is sending decommissioned F-16s from a "dump" at Davis-Monthan airbase to Ukraine, suggesting they may be used for spare parts.Voenkor Kotenok shares similar information and videos of what appears to be aircraft parts being transported from a boneyard, supporting this claim.Tsaplienko also reports on this, stating that An-124s transported F-16 fuselages to Rzeszow, Poland, and that these are likely for spare parts for operational F-16s Ukraine will receive from European partners, noting details like the APX-119 transmitter antenna visible on some parts. This indicates logistical preparations for the arrival and sustainment of F-16s.
Kadyrov_95 shares a video of Ramzan Kadyrov visiting a new district in Grozny named after Vladimir Putin, highlighting construction progress and infrastructure development, framing it as a source of pride for Chechnya and Russia. This is a domestic propaganda effort.
Starter Edda reports on the Balikatan-2025 exercise involving the US, Philippines, Japan, and Australia, explicitly labeling it as an "anti-Chinese exercise" amidst regional tensions, highlighting the scale of the exercise and the focus on coastal defense and strikes on a decommissioned corvette. This demonstrates ongoing geopolitical maneuvering and military preparedness in the Indo-Pacific region, potentially impacting the global strategic landscape.
Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)
Pokrovsk Direction: Extremely high intensity combat. Russian forces claim significant advances and destruction of Ukrainian equipment.
Southern Donetsk Direction: Intense fighting, Russian claimed advances near Bogatyr and disruption of Ukrainian logistics. Dnevnik Desantnika claims Russian advances from Razliv and continued assaults on Bogatyr. Colonelcassad reports destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points near Komar and Huliaipole.
Toretsk (Konstantinovka) Direction: Heavy fighting with claimed Russian advances. Two Majors report advances and entrenchment in Novooleksandrivka and approach to Oleksandropil, sharing video of the alleged entry into Novooleksandrivka.
Lyman Direction: Reported Russian advances and liberation of Nove.
Chasiv Yar Direction: Russian forces claim fighting in Stupochky. Slivochnyy kapriz reports positional battles near Artemivsk (Bakhmut).
Sumi Direction: Significant Russian claims of advances, including taking Oleshnya.
Velyka Novosilka Direction: Russian sources claim destruction of Ukrainian personnel and equipment and advances in Vilne Pole.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia Front): Heavy fighting. Colonelcassad previously claimed the destruction of a Ukrainian DRG.
Kharkiv Direction: Russian attacks near Vovchansk. Artillery and mortar fire on border areas. Reports of drone attacks and KABs. Russian MoD claims elimination of Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" UAVs.
Kursk Oblast (RU): High combat activity in the border region. Confirmed North Korean troop involvement. Reports of civilian casualties and efforts to restore infrastructure. Russian sources actively disseminate claims of Ukrainian "atrocities."
Belgorod Oblast (RU): Continued Ukrainian combat operations. Reports of drone attacks with casualties.
Prydniprovskyi Direction: Russian airstrikes on Kherson and Tiahynka.
Kherson Direction: Ukrainian artillery active. Russian attempts to land on islands repelled. Russian sources claim Ukrainian FPV drone attacks on a market in Oleshky with alleged civilian casualties, with two reported fatalities.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Reports of Russian UAV and artillery attacks. A deputy director of a defense plant and the director of the Pavlohrad Chemical Plant have been arrested in a case involving defective mines.
Kyiv: Reports of assassination attempt on Serhiy Sternenko, who confirms he was attacked and shot. Explosions heard in Bornych, possibly due to delayed cluster munitions.
Sudzha (Kursk Oblast, RU): Reports of civilian casualties and efforts to restore infrastructure. Russian sources disseminate claims of Ukrainian "atrocities."
Oleshky (Kherson Oblast, RU): Russian sources claim Ukrainian FPV drone attacks on a market with alleged civilian casualties, with two reported fatalities.
Nove (Donetsk People's Republic): Russian Ministry of Defense claims the liberation of this settlement.
Chernihiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad Oblasts: Reported threat of strike UAVs.
Sukhumi (Abkhazia): Airport officially opened for regular flights from Moscow.
Paris (France): Reports of police using tear gas during a May Day demonstration.
Berlin (Germany): Reports of a "Revolutionary May Day" demonstration with fireworks.
Ukraine: Ukrainian state project detailing 300 convicted collaborators awaiting transfer to Russia. Ministry of Defense launched a survey on accessibility of military hospitals. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration working on veteran policy project. McDonald's removed Big Tasty burger from menu. Possible delays at Krakivets-Korczowa border crossing. Ukrainian General Staff reports that for March and April, Ukrainian drones hit and destroyed over 160,000 enemy targets.
Kryvyi Rih: Ongoing hospital reconstruction and military rehabilitation program.
Murom, Vladimir Oblast (Russia): Fire at a warehouse attributed to a falling UAV.
Voronezh Oblast (Russia): Russia claims to have intercepted 2 Ukrainian UAVs overnight.
Lipetsk Oblast (RU): A native of Central Asia stripped of Russian citizenship.
Kostiantynopil: DeepState reports the contact line near Kostiantynopil is being adjusted.
Novomykhailivka: DeepState reports a Russian advance near Novomykhailivka.
Grygorivka:Slivochnyy kapriz reports an artillery strike by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the positions of the Russian Armed Forces in the vicinity and claims that the Russian Armed Forces have expanded their zone of control to the west by more than 800 meters along the front.
Novooleksandrivka:Two Majors report that assault units of the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment have entrenched themselves in Novooleksandrivka.
Oleksandropil:Two Majors report that assault troops of the 10th Guards Tank Regiment and the 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment have approached the outskirts of Oleksandropil and are moving further.
Davis-Monthan airbase (US):Operation Z, Voenkor Kotenok, and Tsaplienko report the US is sending decommissioned F-16s from this airbase to Ukraine, likely for spare parts.
Rzeszow (Poland):Tsaplienko reports that An-124s transported F-16 fuselages from Davis-Monthan to this logistics hub.
Grozny (Chechnya, RU):Ramzan Kadyrov visits a new district named after Vladimir Putin, highlighting construction and infrastructure development. This is a domestic political event.
South China Sea (Philippines, Japan, Australia):Starter Edda reports on the Balikatan-2025 military exercise, labeled as "anti-Chinese." This is a significant geopolitical development.
Potential Future Developments
Continued Russian Offensive Pressure: Expect sustained Russian assaults, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis, and continued pressure on the Southern Donetsk, Toretsk (Konstantinovka), Lyman, Sumy, and Chasiv Yar directions. The reported Russian advances near Novooleksandrivka and Oleksandropil on the Konstantinovka direction, if confirmed, could represent significant tactical gains. The claimed Russian advances in other areas like Nove, Berezivka, near Novomykhailivka, and Grygorivka, if confirmed, suggest a slow but persistent shift in territorial control in some areas. The reported Russian preparations for a landing operation in the Dnipro Estuary area suggest a potential new axis of active combat or a feint.
Persistent and Evolving Aerial and Naval Threats: Russia will likely continue widespread drone and guided aerial bomb attacks, with the reported increase in KAB usage being a concern. Ukrainian forces will continue efforts to counter these attacks and will likely increase their own drone operations, as indicated by the reported high number of enemy targets hit in March and April. The reported Russian preparations for a landing operation could involve increased naval activity in the Black Sea. The reported continued Ukrainian drone activity in Russian border regions and further inland indicates the ongoing threat to Russian territory. The potential for delayed cluster munitions to detonate, as reported in Kyiv, highlights the lingering dangers in areas previously subjected to attacks.
Increased Diplomatic Messaging and Information Operations: Expect continued emphasis from Russian sources on readiness for negotiations, linked to alleged Ukrainian vulnerabilities or military limitations. Counter-messaging from Ukraine is also likely, focusing on Russian aggression and the need for sustained international support. Trump's statements and the reported impasse in negotiations will likely be central to diplomatic discourse. Information operations surrounding events like the alleged Oleshky market attack, the US-Ukraine mineral deal (with emphasis on the legal and symbolic aspects), and the dismissal of US officials are likely to continue. Russia will likely continue to promote narratives highlighting its military successes and depicting Ukraine as struggling, including through media like the RuTube seminars and the "Cascade" brigade report. The reported internal discussions and bewilderment in Russia about the current situation could become a more prominent theme in information operations. The Serbian President's planned visit to Moscow despite EU pressure is a notable diplomatic development reflecting complex international relationships and potentially a point of leverage for Russia.
Focus on Internal Russian Security and Information Operations: Russian authorities will likely continue to highlight alleged Ukrainian sabotage and internal issues for propaganda and to justify security measures. Efforts to control information flow are likely to continue, as seen with the criminal case against Dmitry Bykov. The proposed legislation on freezing financial operations suggests a focus on combating cybercrime. The labor market situation in Russia could become a more significant internal issue.
Logistical Preparations for F-16s: The reported transportation of F-16 fuselages to Poland for use as spare parts suggests active logistical preparations for the eventual operation of F-16 aircraft by Ukraine. This could become a more significant factor in the conflict once the aircraft are operational.
Continued Humanitarian Impact: Ongoing fighting and aerial attacks will likely continue to result in civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure, particularly in frontline areas and targeted regions. Efforts to address the needs of wounded soldiers and veterans will continue to be important.
Development and Deployment of Unmanned Systems and Countermeasures: The continued showcase of drone operations and claimed destruction of equipment by both sides indicates the ongoing importance of unmanned systems and electronic warfare. The reported increase in Ukrainian drone effectiveness and the focus on destroying enemy drone operators suggest an evolving tactical landscape.
Internal Ukrainian Developments: The Ukrainian state project on convicted collaborators highlights a focus on internal issues and potential prisoner exchanges. The ongoing hospital reconstruction and rehabilitation program in Kryvyi Rih indicates a focus on supporting military personnel. The arrests of defense plant officials on charges related to defective mines highlight ongoing efforts to address corruption and inefficiencies in the defense industry. The attack on Serhiy Sternenko and the ongoing investigation are likely to remain a focus of internal attention.
Geopolitical Shifts: The reported Balikatan-2025 exercise involving the US, Philippines, Japan, and Australia highlights ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific region, which could have indirect implications for the conflict in Ukraine by influencing the strategic focus and resource allocation of key international actors. The planned visit of the Serbian President to Moscow despite EU pressure is a notable diplomatic development reflecting complex international relationships.
Symbolic Events: Russia's hosting of the "Road to Yalta" music festival and plans for "Intervision" indicate efforts to project an image of cultural normalcy and international engagement.
Potential Indicators
Observable changes in the intensity or direction of Russian ground assaults on the Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, Toretsk (Konstantinovka), Lyman, Sumy, and Chasiv Yar axes, including verification of claimed advances and territorial control in areas like Nove, Berezivka, near Novomykhailivka, Novooleksandrivka, Oleksandropil, and Grygorivka. Any observable actions related to the reported Russian preparations for a landing operation in the Dnipro Estuary area.
Reports of successful defensive actions and claimed Russian losses by Ukrainian forces on key axes, supported by visual evidence. Independent verification of claimed destruction of Russian equipment and the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes, including the claimed number of enemy targets hit in March and April.
Confirmation of missile launches and impacts, particularly from Russian tactical aviation and drones, and any new targeting patterns. Reports of successful air defense engagements. Evidence of delayed detonations of cluster munitions.
Further reports or evidence of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory, particularly targeting military-industrial facilities and logistics.
Changes in the rhetoric or official stance of Russian and Ukrainian officials regarding peace negotiations, and any statements or actions from Donald Trump impacting this. Any follow-up on the US statement about ceasing mediation efforts. Further reactions and implementation details regarding the US-Ukraine mineral agreement and the expected ratification process in Ukraine, and the timeline for the investment fund to become operational.
Further details or developments regarding potential replacements for Mike Waltz as US National Security Advisor.
Continued dissemination of specific information operations by Russia regarding military successes, casualties, and external support, including narratives surrounding the alleged Oleshky market attack and the US-Ukraine mineral deal.
Independent verification or detailed reporting on alleged civilian casualties and damage from reported attacks in affected oblasts and the claimed Oleshky market attack.
Any observable impact of the anti-drone work in affected areas on the effectiveness of the Russian attacks.
Further reports on the transportation and arrival of F-16 parts in Poland or Ukraine, and any indications of assembly or preparation of operational F-16 aircraft.
Further details and legal proceedings regarding the arrests of defense plant officials in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Any follow-up on the reported assassination attempt on Serhiy Sternenko.
Changes in the scale or involvement of external actors in the conflict in southern Syria.
Further escalation or de-escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan.
Reports on the progress and outcomes of the Balikatan-2025 exercise and reactions from China.
Any observable impact of the reopened Donetsk railway station.
Further reports on the financial situation of ASTRA.
