Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 1, 2025, 09:33 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational landscape continues to be marked by intense ground engagements across multiple axes, ongoing Russian aerial assaults, significant diplomatic and economic maneuvers, and notable confirmed North Korean military involvement. Reports from both sides highlight localized advances and fierce resistance. Overnight, Russia conducted a large-scale aerial attack utilizing ballistic missiles and numerous drones targeting various Ukrainian oblasts, resulting in civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Ukraine's air defense claims a high rate of drone interception, including a claimed downing of a Shahed by an F-16 over Khmelnytskyi Oblast. Concurrently, diplomatic efforts continue, with a US-Ukraine economic partnership on mineral resources signed and discussions around potential "crushing" sanctions against Russia ongoing. Information operations from both sides remain active. European Union countries are enacting emergency provisions to increase defense spending, signaling a long-term commitment to bolstering capabilities. Fundraising campaigns for Ukrainian military units continue to rely on public support. Russian sources claim effectiveness of their drone operations against Ukrainian artillery and tanks, including a claimed destruction of an M-55S tank near Huliaipole. Russian reports also touch on internal issues, including a potential suicide of a conscript in Belgorod Oblast and efforts to suppress dissent. Ukraine is emphasizing civilian and military first aid training. A detailed update from the Kryvyi Rih Defense Council highlights the ongoing impact of attacks on civilian infrastructure and the efforts to provide social support and modernize systems. Data on territorial changes in April suggests continued, albeit varying, Russian gains. Discussions about potential peace settlements and the role of key international figures like Donald Trump continue to circulate, with differing interpretations of proposals and intentions. The US has partially lifted a hold on commercial arms sales to Ukraine. The confirmed deployment of North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast, framed by Russia and North Korea as a significant allied contribution and model for future cooperation, remains a key factor, with potential for their deployment to other fronts being discussed by Russian sources. Reports of Russian aircraft dropping unguided aerial bombs on Russian and occupied territories continue to emerge, highlighting potential technical issues. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has provided an update on the overnight drone attack, confirming civilian casualties and damage in Odesa, as well as attacks on Odesa, Kyiv, Sumy, Kropyvnytskyi and oblasts, Kharkiv, and Cherkasy. He states that Russia used 170 drones, including over a hundred Shaheds, and has ignored proposals for a ceasefire. He emphasizes the need for further pressure on Russia through sanctions and for strengthened Ukrainian defense and air defense capabilities.

New information from the last hour includes:

• US Approves First Commercial Arms Sale to Ukraine Under Trump Administration: Kyiv Post reports that the Trump administration has approved a $50 million commercial arms export to Ukraine through direct sales. This is described as the first such sale since Trump's return to power and comes after the agreement on mineral resources. It's emphasized that this is a sale, not free aid. Russian sources also note this development.
• Oleshky Market Attack Casualties Updated: TASS reports that six people injured in the drone attack on the market in Oleshky have been hospitalized, and a seventh person died en route to the hospital. This confirms the earlier report of 7 fatalities.
• Fatal Drone Attack on Market in Oleshky, Kherson Oblast: Second Wave Targeted Wounded: Russian-installed authorities, specifically Governor Saldo, report that Ukrainian forces attacked a market in Oleshky with drones around 9:30 AM, resulting in 7 fatalities and over 20 injuries. Russian sources, including TASS and Mash on Donbas, claim there were two waves of attacks, with the second wave specifically targeting wounded individuals. Governor Saldo also claims Ukrainian forces deliberately targeted ambulance vehicles, leading to a shortage for transporting the wounded. This, if confirmed, represents a significant incident with a high number of civilian casualties and raises serious concerns under international law. Russian sources are framing this as a deliberate terrorist attack and an attempt to "finish off" the wounded.
• Detonation of Delayed-Action Cluster Munitions in Kyiv: The head of the Kyiv City Military Administration reports detonations of unknown explosive objects in the Darnytskyi district, likely delayed-action cluster munitions scattered by Russian UAVs. This occurred in a forest park area and also on the roof of a residential building, causing damage and injuring at least one elderly woman who was hospitalized. DSNS pyrotechnicians are working in the area. This confirms the continued danger posed by unexploded ordnance from previous attacks and highlights the potential use of cluster munitions by Russia.
• Ukraine Reports Destruction of Russian Buk-M3 SAM System: Ukrainian sources, citing the Khortytsia Group and Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights, report the destruction of a Russian Buk-M3 medium-range surface-to-air missile system on a key direction. This was reportedly achieved after the "Black Forest" artillery reconnaissance brigade detected the system and coordinating units destroyed it, resulting in a detonation of its ammunition. The Buk-M3 is described as a key enemy air defense asset with an estimated cost of $45 million. This, if confirmed, is a significant loss for Russian air defense capabilities.
• SBU and National Police Educating Youth on Countering Russian Special Services: The SBU and National Police are conducting lectures in schools to warn students about attempts by Russian special services to recruit them for arson, sabotage, and terrorist acts, potentially turning them into "suicide attackers." They are reportedly offering "easy money" initially and then resorting to blackmail. Since 2024, over 600 individuals allegedly acting on behalf of Russian special services for these activities have been detained in Ukraine. This highlights ongoing Russian efforts to recruit agents within Ukraine and Ukrainian counter-intelligence efforts.
• Ukrainian General Staff Reports Airstrikes on Multiple Oblasts Yesterday: The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Russian aviation conducted airstrikes yesterday targeting numerous settlements in Sumy, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts, using guided aerial bombs (KABs). Specific locations mentioned include Mykhaylivske, Mala Rybytsya, Prokhody, Myropilske, Novodmytrivka, Uhroyidy in Sumy; Rusyn Yar, Malynivka, Hrodivka, Myrolubivka, Lysivka, Sukhyy Yar, Pokrovsk, Novopil, Zorya, Oleksandro-Kalynove, Nova Poltavka, Zelenyy Kut, Yalta, Ivanivka in Donetsk; Hulyaypole in Zaporizhzhia; and Tomaryne in Kherson. This indicates widespread Russian use of KABs across the front.
• Ukrainian General Staff Reports Clashes on Multiple Axes Yesterday: The Ukrainian General Staff provides details on clashes that occurred yesterday across various axes:
  • Kharkiv Axis: Clashes near Vovchansk.
  • Kupyansk Axis: Clashes near Petropavlivka, Hlushkivka, Novoosynove, and Zahryzove.
  • Lyman Axis: Clashes near Novoserhiyivka, Nadiya, Tverdokhlibove, Ridkodub, Nove, Novyy Myr, Zelena Dolyna, Kolodyazi, and towards Novomykhaylivka, Hrekivka.
  • Siversk Axis: Clashes near Verkhnokamyanske.
  • Kramatorsk Axis: Clashes near Bila Hora, Andriyivka, and Chasiv Yar.
  • Toretsk Axis: Clashes near Druzhba, Dachne, Dyliyivka, and Toretsk.
  • Pokrovsk Axis: Clashes near Stara Mykolayivka, Kalynove, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Promin, Dachenske, Nadiyivka, Novooleksandrivka, Kotlyarivka, Troyitske, Bohdanivka, Andriyivka, and towards Zorya, Malynivka, Myrolubivka, Hnativka, Oleksandropil, Pokrovsk, Novoserhiyivka, Nova Poltavka.
  • Novopavlivka Axis: Clashes near Kostyantynopil, Pryvilne, Vilne Pole, and towards Odradne, Shevchenko, and Bahatyr.
  • Orikhiv Axis: Clashes near Stepove, Lobkove, and Kamyanske.
  • Kherson Axis: One Russian army assault repelled.
  • Kursk Region: 21 Russian army assaults repelled.
  • These reports collectively indicate continued high-intensity ground combat across numerous sectors of the front yesterday.
• EU Developing "Plan B" for Sanctions and US Withdrawal from Negotiations: Financial Times is reporting that the EU is developing contingency plans ("Plan B") to maintain sanctions against Russia and continue supporting Ukraine in case the US administration under Trump withdraws from negotiations with Ukraine and seeks rapprochement with Moscow. Concerns about potential "double standards" if the US allows its companies to cooperate with Russia while European businesses remain restricted are also noted. The EU's stance that non-recognition of Crimea's annexation is a "red line" is highlighted, although they cannot guarantee the same position from the US. This indicates strategic planning by the EU for potential shifts in US policy.
• Reports of Long Traffic Jam on Crimean Bridge: Reports indicate a record traffic jam on the Crimean Bridge from the Kuban side, with over 2,500 cars in the queue and delays exceeding six hours. This highlights ongoing logistical issues and potential impacts of security measures or past attacks on traffic to and from Crimea.
• US-Ukraine Agreement on Natural Resources Text Appears: The text of the US-Ukraine agreement on natural resources has reportedly appeared, published by a Ukrainian MP and shared by multiple Ukrainian and Russian sources, including Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights and Sternenko. Key points highlighted include Ukraine's ownership and control over its resources, the establishment of a joint investment fund (50/50) for reconstruction without debt obligations for Ukraine, protection of state-owned companies from privatization, investment from new licenses, alignment with Ukraine's EU integration, tax exemptions for the fund, and the fund investing exclusively in Ukraine for extraction, infrastructure, and reconstruction with profits reinvested for 10 years. The agreement explicitly states that if the US provides new military aid to Ukraine after the agreement comes into force, it will be considered part of the US partner's contribution, increasing the US capital contribution by the estimated value of such military assistance. The agreement also addresses currency convertibility and transfers, allowing for limitations during martial law and for three months after its cessation in the event of deterioration of the payment balance or a significant reduction in gold and foreign exchange reserves, with prior consultation with the US Treasury. It also states that in case of conflict between Ukrainian legislation and the agreement, the agreement will prevail, and Ukraine cannot cite internal law as justification for non-fulfillment. This agreement outlines a framework for long-term economic cooperation, reconstruction, and future US military assistance, reflecting the strategic importance of Ukraine's resources and recovery.
• Reports of Kazakh Former POW Returned to Russia Facing Re-deployment: A video is circulating of a Kazakh former POW who was returned to Russia during an exchange and claims he is being sent back to the front in Ukraine despite being warned by Ukraine this would happen. This raises concerns about the treatment of returned POWs by Russia and could be used by Ukraine for information operations.
• Discovery of Another Body in Tysa River: The discovery of another body in the Tysa River on the border with Hungary in Zakarpattia is reported, making it the 46th such case since the start of the full-scale war. This highlights the ongoing attempts to cross the border illegally and the associated dangers.
• Ukrainian Military Training Highlighted: Videos and photos are shared showcasing Ukrainian soldiers from the 78th Separate Assault Regiment training in combat-like conditions, including moving through smoke and assaulting through fire. This emphasizes ongoing high-intensity training and preparation for combat and serves as information operations to showcase the readiness of Ukrainian airborne assault forces.
• Russian Claims of Destroying Ukrainian HIMARS and Armored Vehicle near Kostiantynivka with FPV Drones: Russian sources, including Colonelcassad and Старше Эдды, claim the destruction of a Ukrainian HIMARS and an armored vehicle with infantry in the center of Kostiantynivka using FPV drones. Geolocation is provided. These, if verified, represent successful high-value target engagements using drone technology.
• Russian Propaganda Piece on Kursk Battle: A documentary film by RT titled "Kursk Battle. Chronology of the Feat," is being promoted, dedicated to the "full liberation of the Russian borderland from the AFU." It claims to show exclusive footage of a five-day breakthrough and an "Operation Stream" that allegedly collapsed Ukrainian defenses in Kursk Oblast. This is a significant piece of Russian propaganda to portray their actions in Kursk as a decisive victory.
• Russian Ministry of Defense Claims Drone Effectiveness: The Russian Ministry of Defense released a video claiming successful drone strikes, including neutralizing a Ukrainian "Akatsiya" SPG in the South Donetsk direction, disabling a Ukrainian M-55S tank in a hangar near Huliaipole (Zaporizhzhia direction), and eliminating Ukrainian manpower and strongholds near Krasnoarmeysk (Krasnoarmeysk direction) with FPV drones. These claims reinforce the significant role of drones in targeting various types of military assets and personnel and in supporting ground operations. They also released video of a Grad MLRS strike in Sumy Oblast and rocket artillery hitting a Ukrainian assembly area on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. They also claim Russian air defense shot down 137 Ukrainian UAVs over the past day and that Russian forces struck infrastructure of military airfields and areas of concentration of Ukrainian uncrewed boats in 162 areas.
• Russian Military Blogger Reports on Southern Donetsk and Chasiv Yar Directions: Воин DV reported on the operational situation on the Southern Donetsk direction, claiming successful strikes by artillery and drones near Bahatyr, Oleksiivka, and Zelenyi Pole, destroying Ukrainian equipment and personnel and disrupting logistics and drone activity. He also provided a video chronology of changes in the line of contact in the Southern Donetsk direction from April 1st to 30th, claiming control of over 70 sq km of territory and the liberation of Vesele. He notes ongoing efforts to liberate Bohaytr, Otradne, Shevchenko, and Vilne Pole. Дневник Десантника reported on the Chasiv Yar direction, claiming fierce battles near the Dnipro Pond, use of "Solntsepyok" thermobaric systems, and claimed successes by Russian paratroopers and drone operators, including destroying Ukrainian infantry and a BMP.
• Ukrainian General Staff Orders Reinforcement of Pokrovsk Direction: Поддубный reported that the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has ordered reinforcement of defenses on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, including transferring armored vehicles, additional drone units, and EW specialists. This confirms the strategic importance of this direction for Ukraine and the perceived need for reinforcement against ongoing Russian pressure.
• Trump Envoy Claims Ukraine Agreed to 22 Conditions for Conflict End: Дневник Десантника cites a statement from Trump's special envoy, Keith Kellogg, claiming that Ukraine has agreed to 22 conditions from the US for ending the conflict with Russia. Kellogg reportedly stated that Ukraine understands that in the event of a ceasefire, each side will remain on their occupied positions and that they are ready for this.
• Discussion Among Russian Military Bloggers on US-Ukraine Mineral Deal: Russian military bloggers, including Colonelcassad and Басурин о главном, are actively discussing the US-Ukraine mineral resources agreement, framing it critically as Ukraine being "sold off" or signing a "cabalistic agreement." They highlight various clauses, some accurately reflecting the text and others potentially misrepresenting it for propaganda purposes. They link this agreement to the US approving the commercial arms sale to Ukraine. Some express skepticism about the benefits for Ukraine and highlight clauses like tax exemptions for the fund and the agreement prevailing over Ukrainian law as potentially unfavorable to Ukraine's interests, while others see it as the US securing assets.
• Ukraine Reports F-16 Downing Shahed: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video claiming that an F-16 aircraft shot down a Shahed drone over Khmelnytskyi Oblast this morning. This, if confirmed, would be one of the first confirmed combat engagements of F-16s in Ukrainian airspace against Russian drones.
• Moldovan President Sandu's European Tour: Rybar reports on Moldovan President Maia Sandu's pre-election tour, including participation in the European People's Party congress in Spain. Sandu reportedly requested support for Moldova's and Ukraine's EU integration and spoke of the "Russian threat." The report notes that the EU is considering separating the integration processes due to Hungary's position on the treatment of Hungarians in Ukraine. Rybar portrays Sandu's tour as an effort to gain support from the Moldovan diaspora and Western politicians ahead of elections where her party is losing popularity.
• UK and France Reportedly Discussing Recognition of Palestine: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that the UK and France are in talks to recognize Palestine, potentially at an upcoming UN conference in June. This is presented in the context of other European countries (Spain, Norway, Ireland) recently recognizing Palestine. This is a diplomatic development with potential regional implications.
• Russian Military Bloggers Discuss French BEC-Kamikaze Tests: Два майора reports on France testing a kamikaze uncrewed surface vessel (USV) in the Mediterranean Sea in April 2025. The report mentions the potential models used and notes that similar USVs are already in service with various countries, including Ukraine, the US, and the UK, and that other countries are also developing them. This highlights the ongoing development and proliferation of naval drone technology and France's participation in this area.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

• Oleshky (Kherson Oblast): Reported fatal drone attack on a market with 7 killed and over 20 injured, according to Russian-installed authorities and confirmed by TASS. Russian sources claim a second wave of attacks targeted wounded individuals, and that ambulance vehicles were deliberately targeted.
• Kyiv (Darnytskyi district, Bortnychi microdistrict): Reports of explosions of delayed-action cluster munitions, suspected from night UAV attack. One elderly woman injured and hospitalized. DSNS pyrotechnicians working in the area. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy confirms Kyiv was targeted by drones overnight.
• Sumy Oblast: Russian aviation conducted airstrikes yesterday targeting Mykhaylivske, Mala Rybytsya, Prokhody, Myropilske, Novodmytrivka, Uhroyidy with KABs. Russian Ministry of Defense released video of a Grad MLRS strike. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy confirms Sumy was targeted by drones overnight.
• Donetsk Oblast: Russian aviation conducted airstrikes yesterday targeting Rusyn Yar, Malynivka, Hrodivka, Myrolubivka, Lysivka, Sukhyy Yar, Pokrovsk, Novopil, Zorya, Oleksandro-Kalynove, Nova Poltavka, Zelenyy Kut, Yalta, Ivanivka with KABs. Ongoing KAB strikes reported.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Russian aviation conducted airstrikes yesterday targeting Hulyaypole with KABs. Russian Ministry of Defense video claims a strike drone pilot disabled a Ukrainian M-55S tank in a hangar near Huliaipole.
• Kherson Oblast: Russian aviation conducted airstrikes yesterday targeting Tomaryne with KABs. Ukrainian forces repelled 1 Russian army assault yesterday. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy confirms Kherson Oblast was targeted by drones overnight. Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces attacked a market in Oleshky with FPV drones, killing 7 civilians and injuring over 20, with a second wave targeting the wounded and ambulance vehicles.
• Pokrovsk Direction: Extremely high intensity with numerous Russian assault actions reported yesterday. Russian forces claim further gains and active combat near Krasnoarmeysk. Russian Ministry of Defense video claims eliminating Ukrainian manpower and strongholds near Krasnoarmeysk with FPV drones and hitting a Ukrainian assembly area with rocket artillery. Ukrainian General Staff orders reinforcement of defenses, including armored vehicles, drones, and EW specialists.
• Lyman Direction: Russian forces reported 16 attacks with 7 ongoing combat engagements yesterday. Russian forces claim advances. Ongoing combat engagements. Russian Ministry of Defense claims the liberation of Nove.
• Toretsk (Konstantinovka) Direction: Intense ground combat and combined Russian assaults reported yesterday (13 attempts). Ukrainian forces repelling attacks. Active combat near Kurakhove, with Russian light motorized rifle units advancing. Ukrainian Presidential Brigade showcasing effectiveness. Russian military blogger reports on intense battles near the Dnipro Pond, use of thermobaric systems, and claimed successes by Russian paratroopers and drone operators, including destroying Ukrainian infantry and a BMP. Russian claim of destroying a Ukrainian armored vehicle with infantry in the center of Kostiantynivka with an FPV drone.
• Siversk Direction: Russian forces reported 6 attacks with 3 ongoing combat engagements yesterday.
• Kupyansk Direction: Russian forces reported 6 attempts to displace Ukrainian units with 2 ongoing combat engagements yesterday. Russian forces claim liberation of Doroshovka and note its significance, and control of a section of the P-79 highway, continuing to advance. Ukrainian General Staff reports repelling attacks.
• Kramatorsk Direction: Russian forces reported 7 attempts to advance with 2 ongoing combat engagements yesterday.
• Novopavlivka Direction: Russian forces reported 21 attacks with no ongoing combat engagements yesterday.
• Orikhiv Direction: Russian forces reported 4 combat engagements with no ongoing combat engagements yesterday.
• Prydniprovsk Direction: Russian forces reported 5 combat engagements with no ongoing combat engagements yesterday.
• Kursk Region: High intensity of fighting yesterday with 21 combat engagements, significant artillery fire, and aerial strikes with guided aerial bombs. Confirmed Ukrainian presence fighting Russian and North Korean forces. Russia claims complete rout and liberation of Gornal. Reports of active infantry attacks and gains in Loknya in the Sudzha area. Increased size of cemetery in Kursk. Russian expert claims encountering Western mercenaries. Russian sources highlighting North Korean involvement and its significance, and potential future deployment to other fronts. Russian regional governor visits and plans for memorial reconstruction. Russian propaganda film about "full liberation." Russia claims to have intercepted 2 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. Russian Ministry of Defense highlights the actions of personnel who reportedly recently completed operations in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian General Staff reports repelling 21 Russian army assaults in this region yesterday.
• Southern Donetsk Direction: Russian military blogger reports on operational situation, claiming successful strikes by artillery and drones near Bahatyr, Oleksiivka, and Zelenyi Pole yesterday, destroying Ukrainian equipment and personnel and disrupting logistics and drone activity. Claims control of over 70 sq km and liberation of Vesele in April. Notes ongoing efforts to liberate Bohaytr, Otradne, Shevchenko, and Vilne Pole. Russian Ministry of Defense claims successes, including neutralizing an "Akatsiya" SPG. Russian claim of foreign mercenaries on the front line. TASS reports Russian security structures claimed to have destroyed a group of Ukrainian military intelligence personnel in the southern DNR. Colonelcassad reports claimed positive news about advances west of Konstantynopil and assault groups entering the southeastern part of Bohaytr, with fighting shifting there. He suggests the liberation of Bohaytr would increase pressure on the Southern Donetsk direction.
• Chasiv Yar Direction: Russian military blogger reports on fierce battles near the Dnipro Pond yesterday and claimed successes by Russian forces, including destroying Ukrainian infantry and a BMP. Russian forces claim consolidation of positions. Intense fighting continues, with Ukrainian forces attempting counterattacks.
• Novorossiysk (Russia): Reported fire at a cargo vehicle parking area and diesel fuel tank near Kirillovka village yesterday. Official Russian reports attribute it to a fire with an ongoing investigation. Ukrainian sources link it to a prior Neptune missile threat and report explosions.
• Crimean Bridge: Reports of long traffic jam with over 2,500 cars in the queue and delays exceeding six hours.
• Ukraine (General): SBU and National Police are educating youth on countering Russian special services and potential recruitment for sabotage and terrorist acts. Major corruption case uncovered in the defense industry concerning unusable mortar rounds. Information campaign against the Crimean Bridge highlighting it as a legitimate military target. US approves $50 million commercial arms export. Ukraine's Vice Prime Minister confirms agreement with US on natural resources, focusing on investment fund for reconstruction without debt. Text of the US-Ukraine mineral resources agreement has appeared. Reports of a Kazakh former POW returned to Russia facing re-deployment to the front. Discovery of another body in the Tysa River (46th case). Ukrainian military reports training exercises. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy provides update on overnight drone attack, confirming civilian casualties and damage in Odesa and attacks on multiple oblasts. Ukraine claims F-16 downed a Shahed over Khmelnytskyi Oblast.
• United States: Approves $50 million commercial arms export to Ukraine, described as the first such sale under the Trump administration. US-Ukraine agreement on natural resources signed and text has appeared.
• European Union: EU is developing a "Plan B" to maintain sanctions against Russia and support Ukraine in case of potential US withdrawal from negotiations. 16 EU countries are activating emergency provisions to increase defense spending.
• Kostiantynivka area: Russian claim of destroying a Ukrainian HIMARS and an armored vehicle with infantry using FPV drones.
• Tysa River (Zakarpattia): Discovery of another body reported (46th case).
• Odesa Oblast: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy confirms Odesa was targeted by drones overnight, resulting in civilian casualties and damage, with ongoing debris removal.
• Khmelnytskyi Oblast: Ukraine claims an F-16 downed a Shahed drone over this oblast this morning.
• Cherkasy Oblast: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy confirms Cherkasy was targeted by drones overnight.