Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (April 30, 2025, 19:23 UTC)

Updated Situation

Ground combat remains exceptionally intense across multiple operational areas. On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces continue intense assault actions, with Russian sources claiming "almost complete" control of Uspenivka and advances on Novoleksandrivka, Nadezhdinka, and along the Kotlyarovka—Troitskoye—Bogdanovka line, as well as pushing north of Andriivka. Fighting is also heavy on the Toretsk (Konstantinovka direction), with Russian units claiming advances in Dyliyivka, near the 1st Dyliyivskyi pond, and in northern Shcherbinivka. On the Zaporizhzhia front, Russian forces are reportedly advancing towards Bohatyr. Significant Russian claims of advances are also reported on the Sumi direction, with airborne units allegedly pushing west and east of Oleshnya, taking the settlement, and advancing between Loknya and Belovody. On the Kupiansk direction, Ukrainian forces report repelling a Russian assault near Petropavlivka, destroying a BTR, Ural, and Buhanka vehicle, and highlight the Russian use of unconventional wheeled transport with enhanced electronic warfare capabilities. On the Velyka Novosilka direction, Russian sources claim their forces have destroyed a Ukrainian tank and seven personnel northeast of Dniprovske, are observing Ukrainian group movements in northern Vesele, and have advanced 400 meters in Vilne Pole. A notable development includes Russian sources claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group (DRG) on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Ukraine reports continuing heavy fighting and inflicting significant losses on the enemy, including 12 Russian personnel on the Kupiansk direction using drones. On the Limansk direction, Russian sources claim advances of up to 2 km east of Katerynivka towards Makiivka and occupying new positions on the western bank of the Zherebets River, and the liberation of the settlement of Nove. Ukrainian forces are reported to be repelling assaults in the area. Russian sources also claim advances between Nova Poltavka and Aleksandropol towards Novoolenivka on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, as well as pushing towards Kalinove from the west. Rybar reports claimed Russian advances near Vodyane Druhe and Berezivka on the Konstantinovka direction, suggesting efforts to reinforce flanks, and claims Ukrainian forces are preparing for an offensive in this area. DeepState reports the capture of Nadiyivka in Donetsk Oblast by Russian forces. A Russian source claims advances over 1 km east of Hryhorivka towards Siversk. A Russian military blogger, citing "Two Mayors," reports Ukrainian forces starting offensive actions through Basivka in Sumy Oblast. A Russian military blogger also reports that Russian forces in the Hornal area are preventing Ukrainian forces from rotating and are destroying personnel and equipment. Another Russian military blogger claims Russian forces on the Southern Donetsk direction have destroyed numerous Ukrainian vehicles and personnel near Bohaytr, Oleksiivka, and Komar, including a M113 BTR, four pickups, and several infantry groups, and also destroyed a pickup near Otradne and a mortar position and a UAV unit, and also claimed the destruction of six "Baba Yaga" copters and two infantry groups by soldiers from Primorye, and that soldiers from Amur destroyed two enemy UAVs, a truck, a car, and a field fuel depot, and that operators of the 57th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade and the 305th Artillery Brigade destroyed an ammunition storage and a German-made "Ground Observer 12" radar station north of Shevchenko. Russian sources claim to have consolidated positions on the outskirts of Stupochky on the Chasiv Yar direction and successfully repelled four Ukrainian counterattacks, suggesting Russian forces have entered the immediate vicinity of Stupochky. Unconfirmed Russian claims of amphibious crossings on the Kherson direction persist. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 177 combat engagements over the past day, including repelling 81 Russian assaults on the Pokrovsk direction, 35 on Lyman, 6 on Kupyansk, 9 on Toretsk, 16 on Novopavlivsk, 5 on Orikhiv, 1 on Prydniprovskyi, and 21 on Kursk. Two Russian attacks were stopped on the Kharkiv direction. The Ukrainian General Staff reports active combat on the Siversk and Kramatorsk directions with ongoing engagements.

The pervasive use of drones continues to significantly influence battlefield dynamics, with Ukrainian and Russian forces showcasing successful FPV drone operations. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of strike UAVs for Chernihiv, Sumy, and Poltava Oblasts, with drones on a course for Poltava Oblast. New groups of strike UAVs are reported on the Sumy Oblast from the northeastern direction. Drones are also reported on the south of Sumy Oblast heading south/southwest, on Poltava Oblast heading west, and on Cherkasy Oblast (Cherkaskyi, Zolotoniskyi districts). A new group of strike UAVs is reported on Kirovohrad Oblast from the northern direction and a group on Kyiv Oblast from the southeastern direction. This adds to the list of oblasts under potential drone attack, highlighting the broad reach of Russian aerial operations. Both Ukrainian and Russian sources continue to share videos of FPV drone operations, emphasizing their importance in targeting personnel and equipment. Operational ZSU shares a video of a Ukrainian FPV drone engaging a Russian soldier and also showcases FPV drones of the Third Assault Brigade destroying Russian equipment and personnel. Воин DV shares a video of a Russian UAV operator engaging Ukrainian personnel on the Polozhskoe direction. BУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video claiming the destruction of 12 Russian personnel on the Kupiansk direction using drones and also reports on 25 Colombians training with the 47th Mechanized Brigade after receiving funding. STERNENKO shares a video of Ukrainian drone operators destroying Russian vehicles during an assault near Petropavlivka and solicits donations for "rusorez". Ukrainian operators of the SIGNUM battalion of the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade claim to have destroyed 5 D-30 artillery pieces and an ammunition depot on the Limansk direction. Russian sources claim the destruction of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone near their positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction and showcase a Russian "Baba Yaga" destroying fortifications in Kharkiv Oblast. Operational ZSU is conducting a fundraising campaign for a jeep for aerial reconnaissance. Colonelcassad shares video claiming Russian "Geranium" drone strikes on Kharkiv yesterday. Rybar reports Ukrainian drone attacks on Vladimir Oblast and Russian strikes on targets in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv, and a fire at the Murom Instrument-Making Plant in Vladimir Oblast. Rybar's map indicates widespread artillery, missile, air, and UAV strikes throughout Ukraine. Kadyrov_95 shares video claiming "Akhmat" special forces used UAVs to destroy Ukrainian drone launch positions in the Turya area. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 91 air strikes with 179 guided aerial bombs, 3186 kamikaze drones, and almost 6000 shellings over the past day. The Ukrainian General Staff reports aviation strikes on numerous locations in Chernihiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions.

Diplomatic activities continue, with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov holding talks in the Dominican Republic, calling the negotiations productive and noting agreements to establish business ties. Russian rhetoric regarding the conflict, the West, and historical narratives persists, including statements from President Putin on nationalism versus patriotism, the status of Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast (claiming they are hiding and requesting impossible evacuation), and the potential renaming of Volgograd to Stalingrad. Putin also claimed that some French citizens are fighting on the side of Russia in Ukraine, forming a unit called "Normandie-Niemen," and suggested that relations between Russia and Europe will eventually normalize. Russian Defense Minister Shoigu stated that any Western military presence in Ukraine would be considered a legitimate target for the Russian Armed Forces and that Europe is pushing Kyiv not to fulfill agreements and is trying to prolong the conflict and prevent normalization of relations between Russia and the US. He also reiterated Russian demands for ending the conflict, including the surrender of four oblasts, withdrawal of Ukraine's NATO application, "demilitarization," "denazification," and ensuring the rights of Russian-speaking citizens. Shoigu also accused Kyiv of resorting to terrorist methods due to Russia's strategic initiative on the battlefield. Discussions around potential US presence at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) remain a point of varying statements from Russian officials, with the head of Rosatom contradicting previous statements about the possibility. A TASS source reports that Washington will announce the signing of a minerals agreement with Ukraine today, despite a Financial Times report suggesting a last-minute hurdle related to Ukrainian parliamentary ratification. Scott Bessent, US Treasury Minister, stated that the US is ready to sign the minerals agreement, but the Ukrainian side made some changes at the last minute, though he is confident they will review them and are ready to sign today if Ukraine is ready. RBC-Ukraine clarifies that the US wants to sign three agreements today, but Ukraine's delegation only has the authority to sign the framework intergovernmental agreement, and the second commercial agreement requires parliamentary ratification. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy reported diplomatic work with partners and preparing for upcoming meetings and negotiations, emphasizing security and the need for a complete ceasefire for at least 30 days before seeking solutions through negotiations. He specifically mentioned talking with the Foreign and Defense Ministers of Luxembourg and the Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney, congratulating him on his election victory and discussing air defense, increasing Russian ballistic missile production, pressure on Russia through sanctions, and cooperation within the G7 and other formats. Zelenskyy reiterated the need for a full, unconditional ceasefire for at least 30 days to stop strikes and killings before seeking negotiation solutions. He also reported receiving substantive reports from the head of the HUR, Budanov, on potential enemy actions and dangers, and from the Commander-in-Chief, Syrskyi, on all frontline directions, current operations, and upcoming steps. Ukraine reports no amendments to the framework agreement on subsoil resources with the US. TASS reports the Yemeni Houthis claim to have shot down a US F-18. TASS reports that Russian retail chains do not expect a shortage of potato chips. RBC-Ukraine reports that Donald Trump stated he did not want to conclude a complex minerals agreement with Ukraine because Ukraine does not have much money, but they concluded an agreement where US money is safe and they can start drilling, and US presence will keep "bad players" away. RBC-Ukraine reports that Donald Trump stated Elon Musk is welcome to stay in his administration for as long as he wants. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video citing Trump stating he is a very smart and cunning person and will force Putin to make concessions regarding the end of the war.

Reports of escalating conflict in southern Syria, involving different groups and alleged Israeli support, indicate continued regional instability. Widespread wildfires in Israel are reported, with accusations of arson by Palestinians. Tensions between India and Pakistan have reportedly heightened with India closing its airspace to Pakistani aircraft, potentially impacting broader geopolitical considerations. In Ukraine, efforts to provide halala and kosher rations for military personnel highlight attention to the diverse needs within the armed forces. The Kyiv City Military Administration held a meeting to address the consequences of a recent enemy attack, emphasizing the need for better coordination between services and a clear action plan for responding to future attacks. A Ukrainian expert suggests a three-day ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia is possible on paper for May 8-10, with Ukraine responding to attacks while maintaining silence during periods of no fire. A report from Kharkiv indicates a man threatened a TCC (Territorial Recruitment Center) employee with a knife during a document check, leading to a criminal case.

A criminal case has been opened against Russian writer Dmitry Bykov for allegedly spreading "fakes" about the Russian Armed Forces and evading "foreign agent" duties. Russian sources report that the railway station in occupied Donetsk, which has not accepted trains since 2014, will resume operations with suburban trains to and from Yasynuvata and Debaltseve starting May 9th. Russian military bloggers continue to highlight logistical needs and fundraising efforts, including requests for machine gun cocking levers and promoting the availability of machine gun boxes and mounts. A Russian military blogger is seeking support for a foundation that is preparing to pack 750 machine gun boxes and has a current debt for equipment. ASTRA reports that Z-rapper Akim Apachev has been fined again, this time for entering the city of Sudzha despite a ban, after previously being fined for vandalism and offensive graffiti in the city. Russian sources are using a video of a captured Ukrainian soldier crying to engage in information operations, and are promoting North Korean branded fleece jackets, likely leveraging the narrative of allied support. A Russian source shares a video of what is claimed to be residents of Dagestan engaging in a public brawl, potentially aimed at highlighting internal issues in Russia. Russian military bloggers are disseminating reports about alleged misconduct by migrants. Kotsnews shares a poll suggesting that 35% of voters believe European leaders are "tired of Zelya" (Zelensky), reflecting a negative narrative about Ukrainian leadership among the audience. Colonelcassad shares statements from the Russian MoD reiterating that Western military units in Ukraine would be legitimate targets and accusing Kyiv of using terrorist methods. Kotsnews reports on a criminal case against three police officers and 14 taxi drivers in Sheremetyevo, Russia, for allegedly defrauding veterans of the "Special Military Operation" by overcharging for taxi services, highlighting potential issues with internal security and support for veterans. Former US TV host Tucker Carlson has made claims accusing the Ukrainian government of attempting to kill certain individuals, including former US President Trump, and labeling Zelenskyy an "enemy of the United States," further amplifying anti-Ukrainian narratives. Operatsiya Z and RVvoenkor amplify Carlson's claims. STERNENKO reports on Trump blaming Biden for the US economic decline. Reports also indicate Russia is preparing for a landing operation in the area of the Dnipro Estuary, including removing minefields near Rybakivka and Ochakiv and transferring personnel, equipment, and unmanned boats to areas near Lymany, Oleksandrivka, Stanislav, Kizomys, Shyroka Balka, Luch, Pravdyne, and Prybuzke. Discussion around the possibility of European countries sending troops to Ukraine continues, with a report suggesting that assembling even a 25,000-strong contingent for a hypothetical mission is proving difficult, and European countries are reportedly unable to form even a 25,000-strong contingent. Former US President Trump has criticized US financial aid to Ukraine, claiming the real figure is around $350 billion and calling it a waste. ASTRA reports on a "veteran of the SVO" who allegedly beat his wife to death and was released due to his status, highlighting potential social issues related to returning soldiers. Fighterbomber shares a video of Vietnamese individuals training with what appears to be a military context, noting Vietnam's celebration of the 50th anniversary of their victory. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video citing Trump stating he is a very smart and cunning person and will force Putin to make concessions regarding the end of the war. Operational ZSU reports that the general director of an defense industry plant, Leonida Shimana, was remanded in custody without bail until June 27th, suspected of supplying substandard mines. Rybar reports a detailed analytical brief on events in the Special Military Operation Zone is available on their closed channel, and also provides high-resolution maps of the overall situation and the Limansk direction.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

• Pokrovsk Direction: Continued exceptionally intense assault actions with claimed Russian advances near Uspenivka, Novoleksandrivka, Nadezhdinka, and along the Kotlyarovka—Troitskoye—Bogdanovka line, and pushing north of Andriivka. Ukraine reports heavy defensive fighting and inflicting significant losses. Russian sources also claim advances between Nova Poltavka and Aleksandropol towards Novoolenivka, as well as pushing towards Kalinove from the west. Военкор Котенок shares a map and text claiming Russian advances in the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction between Nova Poltavka and Aleksandropol towards Novoolenivka, and pushing towards Kalinove from the west. The Ukrainian General Staff reports repelling 81 Russian assaults here.
• Toretsk (Konstantinovka) Direction: Heavy fighting with claimed Russian advances in Dyliyivka, near the 1st Dyliyivskyi pond, and in northern Shcherbinivka. Rybar reports claimed Russian advances near Vodyane Druhe and Berezivka. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 9 Russian attacks here.
• Zaporizhzhia Front: Continued heavy fighting and drone use. Colonelcassad claims the destruction of a Ukrainian DRG in this area. Воин DV shares a video of Russian UAV operators engaging Ukrainian personnel on the Polozhskoe direction. Russian forces are reportedly advancing towards Bohatyr. Fundraising for a UAV complex for a Ukrainian battalion on this front has been successful. Russian sources claim the destruction of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone near their positions on this direction. Дневник Десантника reports continued destruction of Ukrainian dugouts north of Stepove and active aviation use, and destruction of a Ukrainian tank near Mala Tokmachka. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 5 Russian attacks here.
• Sumi Direction: Significant Russian claims of advances, with airborne units allegedly pushing west and east of Oleshnya, taking the settlement, and advancing between Loknya and Belovody. Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of strike UAVs for Sumy Oblast from the northeastern direction and drones on the south of Sumy Oblast heading south/southwest. Дневник Десантника claims Russian forces are clearing territories between Basovka and Zhuravka, advancing 2 km deep and 8 km wide, and paratroopers, marines, and motorized riflemen reached the border south of Guyevo. Two Mayors reports Ukrainian forces starting offensive actions through Basivka. A Russian military blogger reports Russian forces in the Hornal area are preventing Ukrainian rotations.
• Kupiansk Direction: Ukrainian forces report repelling a Russian assault near Petropavlivka, destroying vehicles and personnel. Russian use of unconventional wheeled transport with enhanced EW capabilities noted. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 6 Russian assaults with 5 repelled.
• Velyka Novosilka Direction: Russian sources claim destruction of a Ukrainian tank and seven personnel northeast of Dniprovske, observation of Ukrainian group movements in northern Vesele, and advances in Vilne Pole. Дневник Десантника reports Ukrainian group movements in the northern part of Vesele, advances of 400m in Vilne Pole, and destruction of a Ukrainian tank and 7 personnel northeast of Dniproenerhia. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 16 Russian attacks on the Novopavlivsk direction (which includes Velyka Novosilka) with 12 repelled.
• Limansk Direction (Krasny Lyman - Katerynivka): Positional battles reported. Russian forces claim advances of up to 2 km east of Katerynivka towards Makiivka and occupying new positions on the western bank of the Zherebets River, and the liberation of the settlement of Nove. Ukrainian operators of the SIGNUM battalion of the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade claim to have destroyed 5 D-30 artillery pieces and an ammunition depot. Ukrainian forces are reportedly repelling assaults. Дневник Десантника reports the liberation of Nove by Russian forces and continued work by assault troops of the 488th regiment. Russian sources claim advances towards Ridkodub, Kolodezi, and Zelyonaya Dolina. Rybar reports Russian forces liberated Nove and expanded control west of Nevske. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 35 Russian attacks with 10 ongoing.
• Chernihiv Oblast: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of strike UAVs for this oblast from the eastern direction.
• Poltava Oblast: Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of strike UAVs with drones from Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts on a course for Poltava Oblast. Drones are also reported on Poltava Oblast heading west.
• Cherkasy Oblast: Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of strike UAVs for Cherkaskyi and Zolotoniskyi districts. A new threat for Zvenyhorodskyi district is reported.
• Kirovohrad Oblast: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of strike UAVs for this oblast from the northern direction.
• Kursk Oblast (RU): Ongoing combat against Ukrainian forces in the border region. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares Putin's statement claiming Ukrainian forces have been driven out but remnants are hiding and requesting evacuation. Putin supported creating a memorial for volunteers in this oblast. Z-rapper Akim Apachev was fined for entering the city of Sudzha despite a ban. A Russian Z-volunteer is facing investigation for illegally storing a grenade received as a "souvenir" while delivering aid to Kursk Oblast. Colonelcassad shares graphic content claiming Russian forces are clearing bodies of Ukrainian soldiers in Kursk Oblast and using it as a psychological operation. The Ukrainian General Staff reports repelling 21 Russian attacks here.
• Donetsk (Occupied): The railway station is reported to resume suburban train operations from May 9th. TASS reports five police officers were injured in Horlivka due to Ukrainian shelling. Russian sources claim to have disrupted almost 260 aerial attacks over major cities in the DNR over the past week.
• Dominican Republic: Location of diplomatic talks between Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and his counterpart.
• Syria (South): Escalating conflict reported near Damascus involving various groups and alleged Israeli support.
• Israel: Widespread wildfires reported, with accusations of Palestinian arson.
• India-Pakistan Border: Heightened tensions reported, leading to India closing its airspace to Pakistani aircraft.
• Volgograd (RU): Potential for renaming to Stalingrad is being discussed by Putin. Alex Parker Returns comments on this possibility and potential reactions.
• Konstantynopil (Southern Donetsk Direction): Дневник Десантника claims Russian advances west of this settlement in a previous brief.
• Bogatyr (Southern Donetsk Direction): Дневник Десантника reports continued Russian assaults and significant air support here. Воин DV claimed Russian artillery destroyed a Ukrainian temporary deployment point here in a previous brief. Russian forces are reportedly advancing towards Bohatyr on the Zaporizhzhia front. Воин DV claims Russian forces on the Southern Donetsk direction have destroyed numerous Ukrainian vehicles and personnel near Bohaytr, Oleksiivka, and Komar.
• Razliv (Southern Donetsk Direction): Дневник Десантника claims Russian advances north from this location and consolidated positions on the territory of a gas station.
• Polozhskoe Direction (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Воин DV shares a video of Russian UAV operators engaging Ukrainian personnel in this area.
• Kyiv: Kyiv City Military Administration meeting to address consequences of enemy attack. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of strike UAVs from the southeastern direction.
• Petropavlivka (Kupiansk Direction): Ukrainian forces report repelling a Russian assault and destroying vehicles and personnel here.
• Dniprovske (Velyka Novosilka Direction): Russian sources claim destruction of a Ukrainian tank and personnel northeast of this location. Дневник Десантника reports destruction of a Ukrainian tank and 7 personnel northeast of Dniproenerhia.
• Vesele (Velyka Novosilka Direction): Russian sources report observing Ukrainian group movements in the northern part of this settlement. Дневник Десантника reports Ukrainian group movements in the northern part.
• Vilne Pole (Velyka Novosilka Direction): Russian sources claim advances here. Дневник Десантника reports advances of 400m.
• Sudzha (Kursk Oblast, RU): Z-rapper Akim Apachev fined for entering the city despite a ban. Colonelcassad shares graphic content claiming Russian forces are clearing bodies of Ukrainian soldiers in the Sudzha border area.
• Dagestan (RU): Reported public brawl.
• Makiivka (Limansk Direction): Russian forces claim advances towards this location.
• Zherebets River (Limansk Direction): Russian forces claim occupying new positions on the western bank.
• Kharkiv: A man threatened a TCC employee with a knife during a document check, resulting in a criminal case. Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of strike UAVs for Kharkiv Oblast. Russian sources showcase a Russian "Baba Yaga" destroying fortifications in Kharkiv Oblast. Colonelcassad shares video claiming Russian "Geranium" drone strikes here. Rybar reports Russian strikes here.
• Sheremetyevo (RU): Three police officers and 14 taxi drivers are facing a criminal case for allegedly defrauding veterans of the "Special Military Operation".
• Dnipro Estuary: Reports indicate Russia is preparing for a landing operation in the area of the Dnipro Estuary, including removing minefields near Rybakivka and Ochakiv and transferring personnel, equipment, and unmanned boats to areas near Lymany, Oleksandrivka, Stanislav, Kizomys, Shyroka Balka, Luch, Pravdyne, and Prybuzke. Военкор Котенок reports this information.
• Rybakivka: Reports indicate minefields are being removed near this location as part of Russian preparations for a landing operation.
• Ochakiv: Reports indicate minefields are being removed near this location as part of Russian preparations for a landing operation.
• Lymany (Kherson Oblast): Reports indicate transfer of Russian personnel, equipment, and unmanned boats to this area as part of preparations for a landing operation.
• Oleksandrivka (Kherson Oblast): Reports indicate transfer of Russian personnel, equipment, and unmanned boats to this area as part of preparations for a landing operation.
• Stanislav (Kherson Oblast): Reports indicate transfer of Russian personnel, equipment, and unmanned boats to this area as part of preparations for a landing operation.
• Kizomys (Kherson Oblast): Reports indicate transfer of Russian personnel, equipment, and unmanned boats to this area as part of preparations for a landing operation.
• Shyroka Balka (Kherson Oblast): Reports indicate transfer of Russian personnel, equipment, and unmanned boats to this area as part of preparations for a landing operation.
• Luch (Kherson Oblast): Reports indicate transfer of Russian personnel, equipment, and unmanned boats to this area as part of preparations for a landing operation.
• Pravdyne (Kherson Oblast): Reports indicate transfer of Russian personnel, equipment, and unmanned boats to this area as part of preparations for a landing operation.
• Prybuzke (Mykolaiv Oblast): Reports indicate transfer of Russian personnel, equipment, and unmanned boats to this area as part of preparations for a landing operation. Военкор Котенок reports this information, mentioning the Dnipro-Lyman direction.
• Nove (Donetsk People's Republic): Russian Ministry of Defense claims the liberation of this settlement on the Lyman direction. Дневник Десантника reports the liberation of Nove. Rybar reports Russian forces liberated Nove.
• Nova Poltavka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian sources claim advances between Nova Poltavka and Aleksandropol towards Novoolenivka. Военкор Котенок reports Russian advances between Nova Poltavka and Aleksandropol.
• Aleksandropol (Donetsk Oblast): Russian sources claim advances between Nova Poltavka and Aleksandropol towards Novoolenivka. Военкор Котенок reports Russian advances between Nova Poltavka and Aleksandropol.
• Novoolenivka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian sources claim advances towards this settlement. Военкор Котенок reports Russian advances towards Novoolenivka.
• Kalinove (Donetsk Oblast): Russian sources claim pushing towards this settlement from the west. Военкор Котенок reports Russian forces pushing towards Kalinove.
• Stehove (Zaporizhzhia Front): Russian sources report active use of cluster munitions, artillery, and agrodrones by Ukrainian forces and claimed destruction of a Ukrainian UAV operator's temporary deployment point and a fortified position in this area. Дневник Десантника reports continued destruction of Ukrainian dugouts north of Stepove.
• Mala Tokmachka (Zaporizhzhia Front): Russian sources claim the destruction of a Ukrainian tank in this area. Дневник Десантника reports destruction of a Ukrainian tank.
• Udachne (Donetsk Oblast): Russian sources report Ukrainian shelling of a Russian position in the eastern part of this settlement. Сливочный каприз reports positional battles and Ukrainian shelling of a Russian position in the eastern part of Udachne.
• New Kakhovka (Occupied): ASTRA reports the detention of the occupation head, Vitaly Gura, and an investigation into "rehabilitation of Nazism."
• Basovka (Sumi Oblast): Дневник Десантника reports Russian forces clearing territories between Basovka and Zhuravka. Two Mayors reports Ukrainian forces starting offensive actions through Basivka. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ reports an attempted Ukrainian offensive through Basivka.
• Zhuravka (Sumi Oblast): Дневник Десантника reports Russian forces clearing territories between Basovka and Zhuravka.
• Guyevo (Sumi Oblast): Дневник Десантника reports Russian paratroopers, marines, and motorized riflemen reached the border south of Guyevo.
• Stupochky (Chasiv Yar Direction): Дневник Десантника reports that Ukrainian forces continue to counterattack in the direction of Russian positions near Stupochky, and Russian forces continued their advance on the village and took control of the northern part. Russian sources claim to have consolidated positions on the outskirts of Stupochky and successfully repelled four Ukrainian counterattacks.
• Konstantinopol (Southern Donetsk Direction): Дневник Десантника reports Russian advances west of Konstantinopol.
• Izium (Kharkiv Oblast): Дневник Десантника reports that the Ukrainian military is digging along the banks of the Siverskyi Donets River.
• Khanty-Mansiysk (RU): Дневник Десантника reports that a Ukrainian citizen and a Belarusian citizen were preparing a terrorist attack against a Russian serviceman on assignment from Kyiv.
• Slovyansk: Военкор Котенок reports on a powerful explosion with secondary detonation near the railway station, potentially hitting a warehouse or train with ammunition.
• Sterlitamak (Bashkortostan, RU): ASTRA reports on an incident involving a "veteran of the SVO" who allegedly killed his wife and was released due to his status.
• Vietnam: Fighterbomber notes Vietnam is celebrating the 50th anniversary of their victory.
• Vladimir Oblast (RU): Rybar reports Ukrainian drone attacks here and a fire at the Murom Instrument-Making Plant.
• Dnipropetrovsk: Rybar reports Russian strikes here.
• Turya: Kadyrov_95 shares video claiming "Akhmat" special forces used UAVs to destroy Ukrainian drone launch positions in this area.
• Zvenyhorodskyi district (Cherkasy Oblast): The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of strike UAVs here.

Potential Future Developments

• Independent verification of the claimed destruction of the Ukrainian DRG on the Zaporizhzhia direction and claimed Russian advances on multiple axes, including the Limansk, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumi, Kupiansk, and Velyka Novosilka directions. The claimed liberation of Nove will require independent confirmation. Verification of claimed Russian advances and territorial control on the Sumi, Chasiv Yar, and Southern Donetsk directions, including the capture of the northern part of Stupochky and advances near Konstantinopol. Independent verification of Russian claims of repelling attacks in the Hornal area.
• Further drone attacks in Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, and Kyiv Oblasts. Continued tracking of drone movements is crucial for air defense efforts. Any observable impact of the claimed Russian "Geranium" strikes on Kharkiv.
• Continued intense ground combat and potential for localized territorial changes on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kupiansk, Velyka Novosilka, and Limansk directions, given claimed Russian advances and reported Ukrainian defensive actions and losses. The reported Russian preparations for a landing operation in the Dnipro Estuary area suggest a potential new axis of active combat or a feint. Continued Russian pressure on the Sumi direction and any observable impact of claimed Ukrainian offensive actions through Basivka.
• Any observable impact of the reopened Donetsk railway station on local transportation and logistics in occupied areas.
• Further developments in the diplomatic efforts between Russia and the Dominican Republic and the potential signing of the US-Ukraine minerals agreement, particularly in light of the reported last-minute changes and differing views on the scope of the agreement. Continued diplomatic efforts by Ukraine to secure support and prepare for future negotiations, including potential formats and participants. Any observable impact of Zelenskyy's reported discussions with Budanov and Syrskyi on future Ukrainian operations.
• Potential for the escalating conflict in southern Syria to have broader regional implications or draw in other actors.
• Any observable impact of the wildfires in Israel on the security situation and potential for further arson attacks.
• Further escalation or de-escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan and any international response.
• Any steps towards potentially renaming Volgograd to Stalingrad, including public consultations.
• Continued leveraging of historical narratives by Russia for political and propaganda purposes.
• Reactions to Russian Defense Minister Shoigu's statements regarding Western military presence in Ukraine, accusations of Ukrainian use of terrorist methods, and the reasoning behind these accusations.
• Further information or clarity regarding Russia's position and potential discussions with the US concerning the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
• The practical implementation and impact of halala and kosher rations on Ukrainian military personnel.
• The successful deployment and operational use of the UAV complex acquired through the fundraising campaign and other fundraising efforts by Ukrainian units.
• Further legal proceedings against Dmitry Bykov in Russia.
• Continued sharing of videos showcasing drone effectiveness and tactics by both sides. Continued fundraising efforts by Russian military bloggers for equipment and supplies.
• Potential implications of the claimed destruction of a Ukrainian DRG on Ukrainian special operations capabilities in the Zaporizhzhia region.
• Any observable impact of the Kyiv City Military Administration's plan for responding to enemy attacks on the speed and effectiveness of response.
• Any observable impact of the potential three-day ceasefire on military activity on the front lines. Continued diplomatic discussions on ceasefire possibilities.
• Continued use of unconventional transport by Russian forces and any tactical implications.
• Further reports on logistical needs and fundraising efforts by Russian military bloggers, including the progress of the machine gun box production and delivery.
• Continued information operations from both sides, including attempts to recruit Ukrainian citizens for a "people's resistance." The use of the crying captured soldier video is likely part of this effort. Continued amplification of narratives by Russian sources and Tucker Carlson regarding the Ukrainian government.
• Any observable impact of measures taken against individuals like Akim Apachev on their activities or the broader information space.
• Any observable impact of reported internal issues in Russia, such as the public brawl in Dagestan and the criminal case against police and taxi drivers in Sheremetyevo, and the incident with the returning "veteran," on public order or internal security.
• Any further reports on alleged misconduct by migrants in Russia.
• Reactions to the poll suggesting European leaders are "tired of Zelya" and potential exploitation of this narrative in information operations.
• Further details and potential broader implications of the incident in Kharkiv involving the threat against a TCC employee.
• Verification and impact of the claimed destruction of Ukrainian artillery and an ammunition depot on the Limansk direction.
• Independent verification of the reported Russian preparations for a landing operation in the Dnipro Estuary area, including minefield removal and troop/equipment transfers, and any subsequent actions in that region.
• Further developments in discussions regarding potential European troop deployments to Ukraine, including the feasibility and nature of any proposed missions, given the reported difficulties in assembling a contingent.
• Continued statements from former US President Trump regarding US aid to Ukraine and their potential impact on policy and public opinion.
• Reactions to and potential impact of Tucker Carlson's claims regarding the Ukrainian government.
• Further information and potential legal proceedings regarding the alleged terrorist attack plot in Khanty-Mansiysk.
• Any observable impact of Ukraine digging along the Siverskyi Donets River near Izium.
• Further details and investigation into the incident involving the occupation head in New Kakhovka.
• Continued training and preparation of foreign fighters joining Ukrainian forces.
• Further developments in the case against the general director of the defense industry plant suspected of supplying substandard mines.
• Any observable impact of the reported Ukrainian drone attack on Vladimir Oblast and the fire at the Murom Instrument-Making Plant.
• Further details and potential implications of the claimed downing of a US F-18 by Yemeni Houthis.
• Any observable impact of Trump's statements regarding the minerals agreement with Ukraine and Elon Musk's role in his administration.
• Further information regarding the claimed destruction of Ukrainian drone launch positions in the Turya area.

Potential Indicators

• Independent confirmation or denial of the claimed destruction of the Ukrainian DRG on the Zaporizhzhia direction and claimed Russian advances on multiple axes, including the Limansk and Pokrovsk directions. Verification of the liberation of Nove. Verification of claimed Russian advances on the Sumi, Chasiv Yar, and Southern Donetsk directions, including the capture of the northern part of Stupochky and advances near Konstantinopol. Any independent reporting on fighting in the Hornal area.
• Reports or visual evidence of drone activity and air defense engagements in Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, and Kyiv Oblasts. Any observable damage in Kharkiv consistent with "Geranium" drone strikes.
• Observable changes in the line of contact or intensity of fighting on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kupiansk, Velyka Novosilka, and Limansk directions, supported by visual evidence or independent reporting. Increased Russian activity on the Sumi direction. Any reports or visual evidence of Russian preparations for a landing operation in the Dnipro Estuary area. Any observable impact of claimed Ukrainian offensive actions through Basivka.
• Reports on the number of passengers or type of traffic utilizing the reopened Donetsk railway station from May 9th.
• Further joint statements or agreements resulting from diplomatic discussions between Russia and the Dominican Republic and reports on the signing and terms of the US-Ukraine minerals agreement. Any changes in the tone or content of diplomatic communications from Ukraine and its partners.
• Changes in the scale or involvement of external actors in the conflict in southern Syria.
• Reports of successful firefighting efforts or continued spread of wildfires in Israel, and any evidence of deliberate ignition.
• Further actions or statements from India or Pakistan regarding their heightened tensions, or international diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation.
• Announcement of a referendum or official process regarding the renaming of Volgograd.
• Increased frequency or prominence of historical narratives in Russian state media or official statements.
• Responses from Western governments to Russian Defense Minister Shoigu's statements regarding military presence and targets in Ukraine and accusations against Kyiv.
• More consistent or official statements from Russia regarding potential US involvement or control at the ZNPP.
• Feedback from Ukrainian military personnel regarding the availability and quality of halala and kosher rations.
• The successful deployment and operational use of the UAV complex acquired through the fundraising campaign and other fundraising efforts by Ukrainian units.
• Updates on the legal status and proceedings against Dmitry Bykov.
• Continued sharing and analysis of videos showcasing drone tactics and effectiveness by both sides. Continued reports and visual evidence of fundraising efforts and deliveries of equipment by Russian military bloggers.
• Changes in the frequency or success of Ukrainian special operations in the Zaporizhzhia region.
• Reports from Kyiv on the implementation and effectiveness of the new plan for responding to enemy attacks.
• Any observable decrease or cessation of hostilities on May 8-10, and the nature of responses to any attacks during this period.
• Further evidence or reports of Russian forces using unconventional transport and any tactical advantages or disadvantages observed.
• Continued or increased fundraising activity by Russian military bloggers and reports on the delivery of requested equipment, including machine gun components.
• Any observable impact of Russian recruitment efforts targeting Ukrainian citizens for a "people's resistance," including any reports of individuals joining this effort.
• Further actions taken against individuals like Akim Apachev and any public reaction.
• Reports on internal stability or unrest in Russia, including follow-ups on the Dagestan brawl, the Sheremetyevo criminal case, and the incident with the returning "veteran."
• Reports on measures taken in response to alleged misconduct by migrants in Russia.
• Observable changes in the volume or nature of online discussions and polls related to the conflict and international support for Ukraine.
• Further details and legal proceedings related to the incident in Kharkiv.
• Confirmation and assessment of the impact of claimed destructions of Ukrainian artillery and an ammunition depot on the Limansk direction.
• Independent verification of the reported Russian preparations for a landing operation in the Dnipro Estuary area, including minefield removal and troop/equipment transfers, and any subsequent actions in that region.
• Official statements or confirmed plans from European governments regarding military deployments or training missions in Ukraine, and any changes in tone regarding feasibility.
• Any shifts in US policy or public discourse regarding financial aid to Ukraine following statements from former President Trump or others.
• Any official responses from the Ukrainian government or relevant individuals to Tucker Carlson's claims.
• Further information or legal proceedings regarding the alleged terrorist attack plot in Khanty-Mansiysk.
• Reports or visual evidence of Ukraine digging along the Siverskyi Donets River near Izium.
• Further details and investigation into the incident involving the occupation head in New Kakhovka.
• Continued reports and visual evidence of foreign fighters training and deploying with Ukrainian units.
• Updates on the legal status and any evidence presented in the case against the general director of the defense industry plant.
• Any independent reporting on the reported Ukrainian drone attack on Vladimir Oblast and the fire at the Murom Instrument-Making Plant.
• Any independent verification of the claimed downing of a US F-18 by Yemeni Houthis and any response from the US.
• Any observable impact of Trump's statements on US policy or public perception regarding Ukraine and Elon Musk.
• Independent verification of the claimed destruction of Ukrainian drone launch positions in the Turya area.