Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (April 30, 2025, 18:23 UTC)

Updated Situation

Ground combat remains exceptionally intense across multiple operational areas. On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces continue intense assault actions, with Russian sources claiming "almost complete" control of Uspenivka and advances on Novoleksandrivka, Nadezhdinka, and along the Kotlyarovka—Troitskoye—Bogdanovka line, as well as pushing north of Andriivka. Fighting is also heavy on the Toretsk (Konstantinovka direction), with Russian units claiming advances in Dyliyivka, near the 1st Dyliyivskyi pond, and in northern Shcherbinivka. On the Zaporizhzhia front, Russian forces are reportedly advancing towards Bohatyr. Significant Russian claims of advances are also reported on the Sumi direction, with airborne units allegedly pushing west and east of Oleshnya, taking the settlement, and advancing between Loknya and Belovody. On the Kupiansk direction, Ukrainian forces report repelling a Russian assault near Petropavlivka, destroying a BTR, Ural, and Buhanka vehicle, and highlight the Russian use of unconventional wheeled transport with enhanced electronic warfare capabilities. On the Velyka Novosilka direction, Russian sources claim their forces have destroyed a Ukrainian tank and seven personnel northeast of Dniprovske, are observing Ukrainian group movements in northern Vesele, and have advanced 400 meters in Vilne Pole. A notable development includes Russian sources claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group (DRG) on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Ukraine reports continuing heavy fighting and inflicting significant losses on the enemy, including 12 Russian personnel on the Kupiansk direction using drones. On the Limansk direction, Russian sources claim advances of up to 2 km east of Katerynivka towards Makiivka and occupying new positions on the western bank of the Zherebets River, and the liberation of the settlement of Nove. Ukrainian forces are reported to be repelling assaults in the area. Russian sources also claim advances between Nova Poltavka and Aleksandropol towards Novoolenivka on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, as well as pushing towards Kalinove from the west.

The pervasive use of drones continues to significantly influence battlefield dynamics, with Ukrainian and Russian forces showcasing successful FPV drone operations. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of strike UAVs for Chernihiv, Sumy, and Poltava Oblasts, with drones on a course for Poltava Oblast. New groups of strike UAVs are reported on the Sumy Oblast from the northeastern direction. Drones are also reported on the south of Sumy Oblast heading south/southwest, on Poltava Oblast heading west, and on Cherkasy Oblast (Cherkaskyi, Zolotoniskyi districts). This adds to the list of oblasts under potential drone attack, highlighting the broad reach of Russian aerial operations. Both Ukrainian and Russian sources continue to share videos of FPV drone operations, emphasizing their importance in targeting personnel and equipment. Operational ZSU shares a video of a Ukrainian FPV drone engaging a Russian soldier. Воин DV shares a video of a Russian UAV operator engaging Ukrainian personnel on the Polozhskoe direction. BУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video claiming the destruction of 12 Russian personnel on the Kupiansk direction using drones. STERNENKO shares a video of Ukrainian drone operators destroying Russian vehicles during an assault near Petropavlivka. Ukrainian operators of the SIGNUM battalion of the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade claim to have destroyed 5 D-30 artillery pieces and an ammunition depot on the Limansk direction. Russian sources claim the destruction of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone near their positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction.

Diplomatic activities continue, with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov holding talks in the Dominican Republic, calling the negotiations productive and noting agreements to establish business ties. Russian rhetoric regarding the conflict, the West, and historical narratives persists, including statements from President Putin on nationalism versus patriotism, the status of Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast (claiming they are hiding and requesting impossible evacuation), and the potential renaming of Volgograd to Stalingrad. Putin also claimed that some French citizens are fighting on the side of Russia in Ukraine, forming a unit called "Normandie-Niemen," and suggested that relations between Russia and Europe will eventually normalize. Russian Defense Minister Shoigu stated that any Western military presence in Ukraine would be considered a legitimate target for the Russian Armed Forces and that Europe is pushing Kyiv not to fulfill agreements and is trying to prolong the conflict and prevent normalization of relations between Russia and the US. He also reiterated Russian demands for ending the conflict, including the surrender of four oblasts, withdrawal of Ukraine's NATO application, "demilitarization," "denazification," and ensuring the rights of Russian-speaking citizens. Discussions around potential US presence at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) remain a point of varying statements from Russian officials, with the head of Rosatom contradicting previous statements about the possibility. A TASS source reports that Washington will announce the signing of a minerals agreement with Ukraine today, despite a Financial Times report suggesting a last-minute hurdle related to Ukrainian parliamentary ratification. Scott Bessent, US Treasury Minister, stated that the US is ready to sign the minerals agreement, but the Ukrainian side made some changes at the last minute, though he is confident they will review them and are ready to sign today if Ukraine is ready. RBC-Ukraine clarifies that the US wants to sign three agreements today, but Ukraine's delegation only has the authority to sign the framework intergovernmental agreement, and the second commercial agreement requires parliamentary ratification. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy reported diplomatic work with partners and preparing for upcoming meetings and negotiations, emphasizing security and the need for a complete ceasefire for at least 30 days before seeking solutions through negotiations.

Reports of escalating conflict in southern Syria, involving different groups and alleged Israeli support, indicate continued regional instability. Tensions between India and Pakistan have reportedly heightened with India closing its airspace to Pakistani aircraft, potentially impacting broader geopolitical considerations. In Ukraine, efforts to provide halala and kosher rations for military personnel highlight attention to the diverse needs within the armed forces. The Kyiv City Military Administration held a meeting to address the consequences of a recent enemy attack, emphasizing the need for better coordination between services and a clear action plan for responding to future attacks. A Ukrainian expert suggests a three-day ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia is possible on paper for May 8-10, with Ukraine responding to attacks while maintaining silence during periods of no fire. A report from Kharkiv indicates a man threatened a TCC (Territorial Recruitment Center) employee with a knife during a document check, leading to a criminal case.

A criminal case has been opened against Russian writer Dmitry Bykov for allegedly spreading "fakes" about the Russian Armed Forces and evading "foreign agent" duties. Russian sources report that the railway station in occupied Donetsk, which has not accepted trains since 2014, will resume operations with suburban trains to and from Yasynuvata and Debaltseve starting May 9th. Russian military bloggers continue to highlight logistical needs and fundraising efforts, including requests for machine gun cocking levers and promoting the availability of machine gun boxes and mounts. A Russian military blogger is seeking support for a foundation that is preparing to pack 750 machine gun boxes and has a current debt for equipment. ASTRA reports that Z-rapper Akim Apachev has been fined again, this time for entering the city of Sudzha despite a ban, after previously being fined for vandalism and offensive graffiti in the city. Russian sources are using a video of a captured Ukrainian soldier crying to engage in information operations, and are promoting North Korean branded fleece jackets, likely leveraging the narrative of allied support. A Russian source shares a video of what is claimed to be residents of Dagestan engaging in a public brawl, potentially aimed at highlighting internal issues in Russia. Russian military bloggers are disseminating reports about alleged misconduct by migrants. Kotsnews shares a poll suggesting that 35% of voters believe European leaders are "tired of Zelya" (Zelensky), reflecting a negative narrative about Ukrainian leadership among the audience. Colonelcassad shares statements from the Russian MoD reiterating that Western military units in Ukraine would be legitimate targets and accusing Kyiv of using terrorist methods. Kotsnews reports on a criminal case against three police officers and 14 taxi drivers in Sheremetyevo, Russia, for allegedly defrauding veterans of the "Special Military Operation" by overcharging for taxi services, highlighting potential issues with internal security and support for veterans. Former US TV host Tucker Carlson has made claims accusing the Ukrainian government of attempting to kill certain individuals, including former US President Trump, and labeling Zelenskyy an "enemy of the United States," further amplifying anti-Ukrainian narratives. Reports also indicate Russia is preparing for a landing operation in the area of the Dnipro Estuary, including removing minefields near Rybakivka and Ochakiv and transferring personnel, equipment, and unmanned boats to areas near Lymany, Oleksandrivka, Stanislav, Kizomys, Shyroka Balka, Luch, Pravdyne, and Prybuzke. Discussion around the possibility of European countries sending troops to Ukraine continues, with a report suggesting that assembling even a 25,000-strong contingent for a hypothetical mission is proving difficult. Former US President Trump has criticized US financial aid to Ukraine, claiming the real figure is around $350 billion and calling it a waste.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

• Pokrovsk Direction: Continued exceptionally intense assault actions with claimed Russian advances near Uspenivka, Novoleksandrivka, Nadezhdinka, and along the Kotlyarovka—Troitskoye—Bogdanovka line, and pushing north of Andriivka. Ukraine reports heavy defensive fighting and inflicting significant losses. Russian sources also claim advances between Nova Poltavka and Aleksandropol towards Novoolenivka, and pushing towards Kalinove from the west.
• Toretsk (Konstantinovka) Direction: Heavy fighting with claimed Russian advances in Dyliyivka, near the 1st Dyliyivskyi pond, and in northern Shcherbinivka.
• Zaporizhzhia Front: Continued heavy fighting and drone use. Colonelcassad claims the destruction of a Ukrainian DRG in this area. Воин DV shares a video of Russian UAV operators engaging Ukrainian personnel on the Polozhskoe direction. Russian forces are reportedly advancing towards Bohatyr. Fundraising for a UAV complex for a Ukrainian battalion on this front has been successful. Russian sources claim the destruction of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone near their positions on this direction.
• Sumi Direction: Significant Russian claims of advances, with airborne units allegedly pushing west and east of Oleshnya, taking the settlement, and advancing between Loknya and Belovody. Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of strike UAVs for Sumy Oblast from the northeastern direction and drones on the south of Sumy Oblast heading south/southwest.
• Kupiansk Direction: Ukrainian forces report repelling a Russian assault near Petropavlivka, destroying vehicles and personnel. Russian use of unconventional wheeled transport with enhanced EW capabilities noted.
• Velyka Novosilka Direction: Russian sources claim destruction of a Ukrainian tank and personnel northeast of Dniprovske, observation of Ukrainian group movements in northern Vesele, and advances in Vilne Pole.
• Limansk Direction (Krasny Lyman - Katerynivka): Positional battles reported. Russian forces claim advances of up to 2 km east of Katerynivka towards Makiivka and occupying new positions on the western bank of the Zherebets River, and the liberation of the settlement of Nove. Ukrainian operators of the SIGNUM battalion of the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade claim to have destroyed 5 D-30 artillery pieces and an ammunition depot. Ukrainian forces are reportedly repelling assaults.
• Chernihiv Oblast: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of strike UAVs for this oblast from the eastern direction.
• Poltava Oblast: Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of strike UAVs with drones from Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts on a course for Poltava Oblast. Drones are also reported on Poltava Oblast heading west.
• Cherkasy Oblast: Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of strike UAVs for Cherkaskyi and Zolotoniskyi districts.
• Kursk Oblast (RU): Ongoing combat against Ukrainian forces in the border region. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares Putin's statement claiming Ukrainian forces have been driven out but remnants are hiding and requesting evacuation. Putin supported creating a memorial for volunteers in this oblast. Z-rapper Akim Apachev was fined for entering the city of Sudzha despite a ban. A Russian Z-volunteer is facing investigation for illegally storing a grenade received as a "souvenir" while delivering aid to Kursk Oblast.
• Donetsk (Occupied): The railway station is reported to resume suburban train operations from May 9th.
• Dominican Republic: Location of diplomatic talks between Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and his counterpart.
• Syria (South): Escalating conflict reported near Damascus involving various groups and alleged Israeli support.
• India-Pakistan Border: Heightened tensions reported, leading to India closing its airspace to Pakistani aircraft.
• Volgograd (RU): Potential for renaming to Stalingrad is being discussed by Putin.
• Konstantynopil (Southern Donetsk Direction): Дневник Десантника claims Russian advances west of this settlement in a previous brief.
• Bogatyr (Southern Donetsk Direction): Дневник Десантника reports continued Russian assaults and significant air support here. Воин DV claimed Russian artillery destroyed a Ukrainian temporary deployment point here in a previous brief. Russian forces are reportedly advancing towards Bohatyr on the Zaporizhzhia front.
• Razliv (Southern Donetsk Direction): Дневник Десантника claims Russian advances north from this location in a previous brief.
• Polozhskoe Direction (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Воин DV shares a video of Russian UAV operators engaging Ukrainian personnel in this area.
• Kyiv: Kyiv City Military Administration meeting to address consequences of enemy attack.
• Petropavlivka (Kupiansk Direction): Ukrainian forces report repelling a Russian assault and destroying vehicles and personnel here.
• Dniprovske (Velyka Novosilka Direction): Russian sources claim destruction of a Ukrainian tank and personnel northeast of this location.
• Vesele (Velyka Novosilka Direction): Russian sources report observing Ukrainian group movements in the northern part of this settlement.
• Vilne Pole (Velyka Novosilka Direction): Russian sources claim advances here.
• Sudzha (Kursk Oblast, RU): Z-rapper Akim Apachev fined for entering the city despite a ban.
• Dagestan (RU): Reported public brawl.
• Makiivka (Limansk Direction): Russian forces claim advances towards this location.
• Zherebets River (Limansk Direction): Russian forces claim occupying new positions on the western bank.
• Kharkiv: A man threatened a TCC employee with a knife during a document check, resulting in a criminal case.
• Sheremetyevo (RU): Three police officers and 14 taxi drivers are facing a criminal case for allegedly defrauding veterans of the "Special Military Operation".
• Dnipro Estuary: Reports indicate Russia is preparing for a landing operation in this area, including removing minefields near Rybakivka and Ochakiv and transferring personnel, equipment, and unmanned boats to areas near Lymany, Oleksandrivka, Stanislav, Kizomys, Shyroka Balka, Luch, Pravdyne, and Prybuzke.
• Rybakivka: Reports indicate minefields are being removed near this location as part of Russian preparations for a landing operation.
• Ochakiv: Reports indicate minefields are being removed near this location as part of Russian preparations for a landing operation.
• Lymany (Kherson Oblast): Reports indicate transfer of Russian personnel, equipment, and unmanned boats to this area as part of preparations for a landing operation.
• Oleksandrivka (Kherson Oblast): Reports indicate transfer of Russian personnel, equipment, and unmanned boats to this area as part of preparations for a landing operation.
• Stanislav (Kherson Oblast): Reports indicate transfer of Russian personnel, equipment, and unmanned boats to this area as part of preparations for a landing operation.
• Kizomys (Kherson Oblast): Reports indicate transfer of Russian personnel, equipment, and unmanned boats to this area as part of preparations for a landing operation.
• Shyroka Balka (Kherson Oblast): Reports indicate transfer of Russian personnel, equipment, and unmanned boats to this area as part of preparations for a landing operation.
• Luch (Kherson Oblast): Reports indicate transfer of Russian personnel, equipment, and unmanned boats to this area as part of preparations for a landing operation.
• Pravdyne (Kherson Oblast): Reports indicate transfer of Russian personnel, equipment, and unmanned boats to this area as part of preparations for a landing operation.
• Prybuzke (Mykolaiv Oblast): Reports indicate transfer of Russian personnel, equipment, and unmanned boats to this area as part of preparations for a landing operation.
• Nove (Donetsk People's Republic): Russian Ministry of Defense claims the liberation of this settlement on the Lyman direction.
• Nova Poltavka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian sources claim advances between Nova Poltavka and Aleksandropol towards Novoolenivka.
• Aleksandropol (Donetsk Oblast): Russian sources claim advances between Nova Poltavka and Aleksandropol towards Novoolenivka.
• Novoolenivka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian sources claim advances towards this settlement.
• Kalinove (Donetsk Oblast): Russian sources claim pushing towards this settlement from the west.
• Stehove (Zaporizhzhia Front): Russian sources report active use of cluster munitions, artillery, and agrodrones by Ukrainian forces and claimed destruction of a Ukrainian UAV operator's temporary deployment point and a fortified position in this area.
• Mala Tokmachka (Zaporizhzhia Front): Russian sources claim the destruction of a Ukrainian tank in this area.
• Udachne (Donetsk Oblast): Russian sources report Ukrainian shelling of a Russian position in the eastern part of this settlement.

Potential Future Developments

• Independent verification of the claimed destruction of the Ukrainian DRG on the Zaporizhzhia direction and claimed Russian advances on multiple axes, including the Limansk, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumi, Kupiansk, and Velyka Novosilka directions. The claimed liberation of Nove will require independent confirmation.
• Further drone attacks in Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, and Cherkasy Oblasts. Continued tracking of drone movements is crucial for air defense efforts.
• Continued intense ground combat and potential for localized territorial changes on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kupiansk, Velyka Novosilka, and Limansk directions, given claimed Russian advances and reported Ukrainian defensive actions and losses. The reported Russian preparations for a landing operation in the Dnipro Estuary area suggest a potential new axis of active combat or a feint.
• Any observable impact of the reopened Donetsk railway station on local transportation and logistics in occupied areas.
• Further developments in the diplomatic efforts between Russia and the Dominican Republic and the potential signing of the US-Ukraine minerals agreement, particularly in light of the reported last-minute changes and differing views on the scope of the agreement.
• Potential for the escalating conflict in southern Syria to have broader regional implications or draw in other actors.
• Further escalation or de-escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan and any international response.
• Any steps towards potentially renaming Volgograd to Stalingrad, including public consultations.
• Continued leveraging of historical narratives by Russia for political and propaganda purposes.
• Reactions to Russian Defense Minister Shoigu's statements regarding Western military presence in Ukraine and accusations of Ukrainian use of terrorist methods.
• Further information or clarity regarding Russia's position and potential discussions with the US concerning the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
• The practical implementation and impact of halala and kosher rations on Ukrainian military personnel.
• The successful deployment and operational use of the UAV complex acquired through the fundraising campaign.
• Further legal proceedings against Dmitry Bykov in Russia.
• Continued sharing of videos showcasing drone effectiveness and tactics by both sides.
• Potential implications of the claimed destruction of a Ukrainian DRG on Ukrainian special operations capabilities in the Zaporizhzhia region.
• Any observable impact of the Kyiv City Military Administration's plan for responding to enemy attacks on the speed and effectiveness of response.
• Any observable impact of the potential three-day ceasefire on military activity on the front lines.
• Continued use of unconventional transport by Russian forces and any tactical implications.
• Further reports on logistical needs and fundraising efforts by Russian military bloggers, including the progress of the machine gun box production and delivery.
• Continued information operations from both sides, including attempts to recruit Ukrainian citizens for a "people's resistance." The use of the crying captured soldier video is likely part of this effort.
• Any observable impact of measures taken against individuals like Akim Apachev on their activities or the broader information space.
• Any observable impact of reported internal issues in Russia, such as the public brawl in Dagestan and the criminal case against police and taxi drivers in Sheremetyevo, on public order or internal security.
• Any further reports on alleged misconduct by migrants in Russia.
• Reactions to the poll suggesting European leaders are "tired of Zelya" and potential exploitation of this narrative in information operations.
• Further details and potential broader implications of the incident in Kharkiv involving the threat against a TCC employee.
• Verification and impact of the claimed destruction of Ukrainian artillery and an ammunition depot on the Limansk direction.
• Independent verification of the reported Russian preparations for a landing operation in the Dnipro Estuary area, including minefield removal and troop/equipment transfers, and any subsequent actions in that region.
• Further developments in discussions regarding potential European troop deployments to Ukraine, including the feasibility and nature of any proposed missions.
• Continued statements from former US President Trump regarding US aid to Ukraine and their potential impact on policy and public opinion.
• Reactions to and potential impact of Tucker Carlson's claims regarding the Ukrainian government.

Potential Indicators

• Independent confirmation or denial of the claimed destruction of the Ukrainian DRG on the Zaporizhzhia direction and claimed Russian advances on multiple axes, including the Limansk and Pokrovsk directions. Verification of the liberation of Nove.
• Reports or visual evidence of drone activity and air defense engagements in Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, and Cherkasy Oblasts.
• Observable changes in the line of contact or intensity of fighting on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kupiansk, Velyka Novosilka, and Limansk directions, supported by visual evidence or independent reporting.
• Reports on the number of passengers or type of traffic utilizing the reopened Donetsk railway station from May 9th.
• Further joint statements or agreements resulting from diplomatic discussions between Russia and the Dominican Republic and reports on the signing and terms of the US-Ukraine minerals agreement.
• Changes in the scale or involvement of external actors in the conflict in southern Syria.
• Further actions or statements from India or Pakistan regarding their heightened tensions, or international diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation.
• Announcement of a referendum or official process regarding the renaming of Volgograd.
• Increased frequency or prominence of historical narratives in Russian state media or official statements.
• Responses from Western governments to Russian Defense Minister Shoigu's statements regarding military presence and targets in Ukraine and accusations against Kyiv.
• More consistent or official statements from Russia regarding potential US involvement or control at the ZNPP.
• Feedback from Ukrainian military personnel regarding the availability and quality of halala and kosher rations.
• The successful deployment and operational use of the UAV complex acquired through the fundraising campaign.
• Updates on the legal status and proceedings against Dmitry Bykov.
• Continued sharing and analysis of videos showcasing drone tactics and effectiveness by both sides.
• Changes in the frequency or success of Ukrainian special operations in the Zaporizhzhia region.
• Reports from Kyiv on the implementation and effectiveness of the new plan for responding to enemy attacks.
• Any observable decrease or cessation of hostilities on May 8-10, and the nature of responses to any attacks during this period.
• Further evidence or reports of Russian forces using unconventional transport and any tactical advantages or disadvantages observed.
• Continued or increased fundraising activity by Russian military bloggers and reports on the delivery of requested equipment, including machine gun components.
• Any observable impact of Russian recruitment efforts targeting Ukrainian citizens for a "people's resistance," including any reports of individuals joining this effort.
• Further actions taken against individuals like Akim Apachev and any public reaction.
• Reports on internal stability or unrest in Russia, including follow-ups on the Dagestan brawl and the Sheremetyevo criminal case.
• Reports on measures taken in response to alleged misconduct by migrants in Russia.
• Observable changes in the volume or nature of online discussions and polls related to the conflict and international support for Ukraine.
• Further details and legal proceedings related to the incident in Kharkiv.
• Confirmation and assessment of the impact of claimed destructions of Ukrainian artillery and an ammunition depot on the Limansk direction.
• Visual evidence or credible reports of minefield removal or increased Russian military activity (personnel, equipment, boats) in the Dnipro Estuary area, particularly near the mentioned settlements.
• Official statements or confirmed plans from European governments regarding military deployments or training missions in Ukraine.
• Any shifts in US policy or public discourse regarding financial aid to Ukraine following statements from former President Trump or others.
• Any official responses from the Ukrainian government or relevant individuals to Tucker Carlson's claims.