Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (April 30, 2025, 09:23 UTC)

Updated Situation

Ground combat remains exceptionally intense across multiple axes, with a significant focus on the Pokrovsk direction, where Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi confirms intensified Russian offensive actions aimed at breaching defenses and reaching the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. He reports dedicating resources to this axis and that Russian forces are sustaining losses. Ukrainian forces also report repelling numerous Russian assaults on the Kharkiv (9), Kupyansk (7), Siversk (6), Kramatorsk (10), Toretsk (14), Pokrovsk (59), Novopavlivsk (23), Orikhiv (5), and Prydniprovskyi (5) directions. Liveuamap corroborates enemy attacks near Vovchansk and towards Kamyanka on the Kharkiv axis, near Zahryzove, Stepova Novoselivka and towards Petropavlivka and Nova Kruhlyakivka on the Kupyansk axis, near Lypove, Nove, Novomykhaylivka, Myrne, Zelena Dolyna and Yampolivka on the Lyman axis (21 attempted advances reported), near Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamyanske on the Siversk axis (4 attacks reported), near Mayske, Predtechyne, Bila Hora and near Kurdumivka and Chasiv Yar on the Kramatorsk axis (13 combat engagements reported), near Dachne, Toretsk, Krymske and towards Dyliyivka on the Toretsk axis (6 attacks reported), and near Kostyantynopil, Burlatske, Pryvilne, Rivnopil and towards Odradne on the Novopavlivka axis (13 attacks reported). The General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine confirms Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Semenivka of Chernihiv region, Myropillya, Prokhody, Zapsillya of Sumy region, Duvanka of Kharkiv region, Berezove Dnipropetrovska oblasti, Volodymyrivka, Novopil of Donetsk region, Hulyaypole, Zaliznychne, Novoandriyivka of Zaporizhzhia region, and Kherson. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims the liberation of the settlement of Nove in the Donetsk People's Republic. This is a claimed localized Russian advance on the Donetsk front.

Aerial threats and their impact remain significant. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy reports over 100 Russian strike drones overnight and 375 since the beginning of the week (over 190 Shaheds), targeting Kharkiv, Dnipro, Dobropillia, and other cities and communities. In Kharkiv, over 45 people, including two children, were injured in two waves of attacks, with residential areas, multi-apartment buildings, a hospital, and a school among 13 civilian locations impacted. In Dnipro, one person was killed and another injured, with civilian infrastructure also struck. In Dobropillia, a mine building was hit, damaging buses and cars, and one person was injured. ASTRA reports the number of injured in Kharkiv has risen to 47. Explosions and fires after drone attacks are reported in both Murom and Rylsk in Russia. Ukrainian forces also report 15 combat engagements and significant aerial activity in Kursk Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports shooting down 50 out of 108 Russian strike UAVs and simulator drones overnight, with 22 simulator drones locationally lost without negative consequences. This indicates a large-scale Russian drone attack with a significant portion intercepted by Ukrainian air defenses.

Information and political maneuvers continue. Russian sources increasingly emphasize readiness for direct negotiations without preconditions, questioning the legitimacy of President Zelenskyy. Statements from Russian officials are cited as seeking such negotiations, potentially linked to alleged limitations in Russian military resources. South Korean intelligence is cited claiming over 600 North Korean soldiers were killed out of 15,000 deployed to Kursk Oblast, with total casualties reaching 4,700. Russian sources also highlight the detention of alleged Ukrainian agents involved in sabotage and assassination attempts within Russia, reporting three detained in Russia preparing an assassination attempt on a participant of the "special operation." They also report on two Ukrainian agents injured in an accidental explosion of an IED in Khanty-Mansiysk, highlighting the transit of components through Poland, Lithuania, and Belarus, and the detention of a Moldovan citizen who allegedly brought the components. The Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation confirms the explosion in Khanty-Mansiysk was caused by a detonated IED by Ukrainian special services agents and that a criminal case for preparation of a terrorist act has been initiated with involved persons taken into custody. Russian military bloggers and state media are actively promoting these incidents to portray Ukrainian actions as terrorism. Russian sources also report on internal matters, including the official renaming of Volgograd airport to "Stalingrad," the construction of a bridge between Russia and North Korea (expected to take up to 1.5 years), and law enforcement actions against scammers and a case of fraud against a vice-mayor of Krasnodar. Discussions regarding potential European troop deployments to Ukraine are noted, with The Times reporting that Europe would struggle to gather 25,000 troops for a deterrence mission, and that the UK and France are now considering sending instructors and training units to western Ukraine instead of a full multinational contingent. Basurin о главном promotes a narrative that the UK is the primary obstacle to peace and is actively hindering peace efforts, including those attributed to Donald Trump, while highlighting the UK's procurement of drones from a New Zealand company for Ukraine. A Russian military blogger shares information on alleged Ukrainian plans for a future offensive towards Crimea from southern Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts, citing underground sources reporting troop movements, training with English-speaking instructors, use of small craft for reconnaissance, and the potential removal of minefields. Ukrainian sources continue to report on the human cost of the conflict, with Mash on Donbas reporting the death of a woman injured in a HIMARS shelling of Horlivka. The Ukrainian General Staff highlights tank training exercises and showcases the effectiveness of Bradley M2A2 infantry fighting vehicles in providing protection and enabling successful operations. STERNENKO reports on Ukrainian forces shooting down Russian reconnaissance drones (Supercam and Zala). The Coordinator Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War acknowledges the service of Ukrainian border guards and highlights efforts to return those in captivity. Operativnyi ZSU reports on preparations to add 5% bioethanol to gasoline in Ukraine starting May 1st, linking it to EU integration, environmental concerns, and reduced oil product imports, noting potential price increases. Serhiy Naiev, Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, highlights the importance of medical support and blood transfusions in saving lives on the Vuhledar axis and shares information on the use of a "Vampire" blood component freezer-heater. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report significant Russian losses over the past day, including 79 personnel, 10 artillery systems, 42 units of automotive and armored vehicles, 8 UAVs, 2 boats, and other equipment, as well as the destruction of shelters and observation posts. WarGonzo shares a video report on North Korean fighters, praising their actions in Kursk Oblast. Colonelcassad reports on Russia countering the spread of undesirable ideologies. WarGonzo and other Russian sources report on the thwarted terrorist act in Khanty-Mansiysk. WarGonzo discusses the situation in Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts on April 29th, reporting continued fighting and casualties in border regions, increased drone attacks on civilian areas in Belgorod, ongoing mine clearance efforts in Kursk, and fighting in Sumy Oblast near several settlements, including claimed Russian advances and reports of Ukrainian desertions. WarGonzo also mentions a potential US military response to Houthi attacks following damage to a US aircraft carrier. The General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Ukrainian forces conducted large-scale testing of smart mining and demining at a "Iron polygon" with participation of Brave1 defense cluster and State Scientific Research Institute of Testing and Certification of Weapons and Military Equipment, presenting various mines, drones, metal detectors, and information systems for detecting explosive devices. Russian Ministry of Defense reports Su-25 crews destroyed AFU armored vehicles in the area of responsibility of the Vostok Group of Forces. Underdubny reports the liquidation of the head of EW of the "Wolves of Da Vinci" national battalion, Captain Dmytro Herula, by drone operators on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. Colonelcassad reports the destruction of a Ukrainian 2S1 "Gvozdika" howitzer in Nelepivka by a "Lancet" drone by the 238th Artillery Brigade. Colonelcassad also reports Russian UAV operators of the "Dnepr" group destroyed Ukrainian equipment on the Orikhiv direction. Two majors report the US State Department approved the sale of Patriot air defense systems to Romania for $262 million, to be paid for by unnamed sponsor countries, noting this is to replace systems transferred to Ukraine and that global production of PAC-3 missiles is insufficient to equip Ukraine with 10 batteries as proposed by Zelenskyy. Russian military bloggers continue fundraising efforts for specific equipment like drones. The Ukrainian parliament has extended the period for voluntary return from absence without leave (AWOL) until August 30, 2025, and introduced online reporting for this via the "Army+" application. This reflects ongoing efforts to address personnel issues within the Ukrainian military. Peskov stated that information wars can be victorious, but real victory is forged on the battlefield. He also emphasized Russia's ability to mobilize like in the Great Patriotic War (WWII). This rhetoric reinforces Russia's commitment to military victory and highlights their potential for large-scale mobilization. Alex Parker Returns quotes Peskov stating that a film about Putin's 25 years in power will be released. This indicates a focus on internal political messaging and reinforcing the leader's image. Alex Parker Returns quotes Peskov stating that Russia will be able to mobilize like in the years of the Great Patriotic War, and that "something will happen." This is a concerning statement regarding potential future mobilization efforts and a possible escalation of the conflict. Peskov stated that the statements by Zelenskyy regarding threats to the May 9th parade are "for the most part unsuccessful," and confirmed the parade will take place. This suggests a dismissal of perceived Ukrainian threats and a determination to proceed with the symbolic event. Peskov also stated that direct contact between Putin and Trump will be established if necessary, and direct dialogue between Russia and the US has resumed. This indicates a potential for high-level diplomatic engagement between Russia and the US. Peskov emphasized that settlement should be reached with Ukraine, not the US. This highlights Russia's preferred party for negotiations. Peskov reiterated Russia's readiness for direct negotiations with Ukraine but stated there is no response from Kyiv yet. This reinforces Russia's public stance on negotiations. Peskov stated that Russia appreciates US efforts for a peaceful settlement in Ukraine. This appears to be a contradictory statement to the previous one, potentially aimed at a wider international audience or acknowledging the US role as an intermediary. Peskov characterized the Ukrainian crisis as too complex for an immediate settlement. This suggests an expectation of a protracted conflict or negotiation process. Peskov emphasized that it is impossible not to consider the situation on the ground between Russia and Ukraine. This links potential negotiation outcomes to military realities. Peskov reiterated that Russia must achieve the goals set at the beginning of the "special operation." This underscores the continued commitment to the original war aims. Peskov stated that for Russia, achieving the goals of the "special operation" peacefully is still preferable. This attempts to frame Russia as seeking a peaceful resolution despite ongoing military actions. Peskov reiterated that Putin remains open to a peaceful settlement. This reinforces the public message of openness to dialogue. Peskov stated that Putin supports a ceasefire but first needs to resolve a number of "nuances." This highlights conditions for a ceasefire and suggests that significant points of disagreement remain. Peskov also claimed that Russia only paid off its Lend-Lease debt to the US under Putin, with the last payments made in 2006. This is a historical claim that may be used for internal political messaging or to counter Western narratives about historical aid. Alex Parker Returns reports that Yermak has officially rejected a truce, stating there will be no "freezing" of the conflict. This is a significant statement from a high-ranking Ukrainian official rejecting a ceasefire proposal, likely in response to recent Russian statements or a perceived lack of genuine intent. Оперативний ЗСУ quotes Peskov's statements on negotiations, interpreting them as "peace is impossible without the capitulation of Ukraine, and also we would very much like to be friends with the USA." This is a critical Ukrainian interpretation of Russian negotiation rhetoric. Север.Реалии reports that a resident of Veliky Novgorod was sentenced to 12 years for setting fire to a railway relay box, with the court citing disagreement with Russian domestic and foreign policy as the motive. The report notes a significant increase in terrorism convictions in Russia, with such acts often involving setting fire to railway infrastructure or military enlistment offices, sometimes incited by scammers. This highlights internal security concerns and severe legal consequences for actions perceived as opposing the government or supporting Ukraine. Alex Parker Returns reports on Trump's special envoy Witkoff stating that Putin sees an opportunity to revise relations with the US for the first time in decades, and was impressed by the Kremlin. This suggests potential for shifts in Russia-US relations. TASS quotes Miroshnik claiming that the number of Ukrainian strikes on civilians has increased by 20-30% since the start of Russia-US dialogue on settlement, and that Kyiv is increasing shelling of Russian territories to disrupt peace talks. This is a Russian claim aimed at portraying Ukraine as escalating the conflict and hindering negotiations. TASS quotes Miroshnik claiming Kyiv is increasing shelling of Russian territories to disrupt peace talks. This is a recurring Russian narrative. Colonelcassad shares a map claiming Russian advances and expanded control in the areas of Belovody, Doroshovka, Kamenka, Chasov Yar, and Shevchenko over the past day. This is a Russian claim of territorial gains on multiple fronts. Сливочный каприз shares a summary of visually confirmed Ukrainian equipment losses between March 3-9, with the highest losses reported in Kursk and Sumy Oblasts. This provides data on the intensity of fighting in those border regions during that period. ASTRA reports that for two weeks, Steam, Battlefield, and hundreds of other sites have been inaccessible in the North Caucasian Federal District of Russia, primarily impacting home internet users. The issue is linked to traffic filtering after passing through technical means on the network, with some providers citing problems with services using Cloudflare and Amazon. Federal operators deny issues, while Roskomnadzor recommends using domestic hosting. This points to potential ongoing efforts by Russian authorities to control internet traffic and access to foreign online services. ОТУ "Харків" reports that Ukrainian drones destroyed a Russian mobile electronic warfare complex "Borshchevik" on the Kharkiv direction. This complex is designed to detect Starlink terminals. The report also states that drone strikes destroyed Russian soldiers attempting to set up a position. This is a significant Ukrainian success against Russian EW capabilities and personnel. Оперативний ЗСУ and RBC-Ukraine report that SBU drones struck the Murom Instrument-Making Plant in Vladimir Oblast, Russia, which produces components for the Russian Navy and Air Force, including munition fuzes. Five explosions were heard, with two buildings reportedly damaged and a fire started. The plant is under Ukrainian and EU sanctions. This is a reported successful Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian military-industrial target deep within Russia.

The Ukrainian General Staff now reports repelling 1 Russian army assault on the Kherson axis. This update specifies the level of Russian ground activity in the Kherson area. The Ukrainian General Staff now reports repelling 25 Russian army assaults in the Kursk region. This significant increase in the reported number of Russian ground attacks in Kursk indicates a major intensification of fighting in this border area, aligning with previous reports of North Korean troop deployment here and potentially a renewed Russian effort to gain ground. The Ukrainian Air Force reports shooting down 50 out of 108 Russian strike UAVs and simulator drones overnight, with 22 simulator drones locationally lost without negative consequences. This indicates a large-scale Russian drone attack with a significant portion intercepted by Ukrainian air defenses. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims the liberation of the settlement of Nove in the Donetsk People's Republic. This is a claimed localized Russian advance on the Donetsk front. The Ukrainian parliament has extended the period for voluntary return from absence without leave (AWOL) until August 30, 2025, and introduced online reporting for this via the "Army+" application. This reflects ongoing efforts to address personnel issues within the Ukrainian military. Peskov stated that information wars can be victorious, but real victory is forged on the battlefield. He also emphasized Russia's ability to mobilize like in the Great Patriotic War (WWII). This rhetoric reinforces Russia's commitment to military victory and highlights their potential for large-scale mobilization. Alex Parker Returns quotes Peskov stating that Russia will be able to mobilize like in the years of the Great Patriotic War, and that "something will happen." This is a concerning statement regarding potential future mobilization efforts and a possible escalation of the conflict. Alex Parker Returns reports that Yermak has officially rejected a truce, stating there will be no "freezing" of the conflict. This is a significant statement from a high-ranking Ukrainian official rejecting a ceasefire proposal, likely in response to recent Russian statements or a perceived lack of genuine intent. Север.Реалии reports that a resident of Veliky Novgorod was sentenced to 12 years for setting fire to a railway relay box, with the court citing disagreement with Russian domestic and foreign policy as the motive. The report notes a significant increase in terrorism convictions in Russia, with such acts often involving setting fire to railway infrastructure or military enlistment offices, sometimes incited by scammers. This highlights internal security concerns and severe legal consequences for actions perceived as opposing the government or supporting Ukraine. ОТУ "Харків" reports that Ukrainian drones destroyed a Russian mobile electronic warfare complex "Borshchevik" on the Kharkiv direction. This complex is designed to detect Starlink terminals. The report also states that drone strikes destroyed Russian soldiers attempting to set up a position. This is a significant Ukrainian success against Russian EW capabilities and personnel. Оперативний ЗСУ and RBC-Ukraine report that SBU drones struck the Murom Instrument-Making Plant in Vladimir Oblast, Russia, which produces components for the Russian Navy and Air Force, including munition fuzes. Five explosions were heard, with two buildings reportedly damaged and a fire started. The plant is under Ukrainian and EU sanctions. This is a reported successful Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian military-industrial target deep within Russia.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

• Pokrovsk Axis: Remains an area of exceptionally high intensity and a primary focus for Russian offensive operations. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief highlights intense Russian pressure and efforts to reach the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border, reinforcing the axis. Ukraine reports repelling 59 Russian assaults, and Liveuamap reports 75 enemy offensives stopped across multiple settlements. Colonelcassad shares a map claiming Russian advances and expanded control on this axis.
• Southern Donetsk Direction: Continued pressure on Ukrainian forces near Bogatyr with claimed Russian advances. Russian forces are utilizing artillery, UAVs, and aviation support and mining potential movement routes. WarGonzo confirms continued Russian offensive in the Bogatyr area. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Novopil. Colonelcassad shares a map claiming Russian advances and expanded control on this axis.
• Zaporizhzhia Front: Russian MoD claims destruction of Ukrainian fortified areas and manpower near Gulyaipole using Grad MLRS. Air raid alerts and missile danger have been reported and cleared. Ukraine reports repelling 5 Russian assaults on the Orikhiv direction. WarGonzo reports continued positional battles with active use of long-range weapons and no significant changes. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Hulyaypole, Zaliznychne, and Novoandriyivka. Colonelcassad reports Russian UAV operators destroyed Ukrainian equipment on the Orikhiv direction. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports significant deliveries of equipment and technology to 58 units on the Zaporizhzhia front during April, including over 2000 FPV and other drones, over 2500 units of additional equipment and batteries for copters, dozens of quad bikes and buggies, hundreds of EW, communication, and power supply devices, computer equipment, ammunition, UAV systems, ground stations, and over 33,800 means for remote mining. This indicates a significant effort to equip Ukrainian forces in this sector with a focus on drone warfare and remote mining capabilities.
• Kharkiv Oblast: Continued reports of casualties from recent Russian drone attacks, with the number rising to 47 injured. Russian tactical aviation activity poses a threat of guided aerial weapons. Ukraine reports repelling 9 Russian assaults. WarGonzo reports increased drone attacks on civilian areas in Belgorod, adjacent to Kharkiv. Liveuamap reports clashes near Vovchansk and towards Kamyanka. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Duvanka. ОТУ "Харків" reports 2 enemy attacks repelled near Vovchansk and towards Kamyanka, stating the operational situation remains complex with no significant changes, reporting 3 guided aerial bombs, 85 kamikaze drones, and 647 shellings by Russian forces, with losses of 53 personnel (18 irreversible) and 135 units of weapons and equipment (4 artillery systems, 1 ATGM, 22 vehicles, 97 UAVs, 11 special equipment), 77 shelters, and a fuel depot. This provides a detailed account of recent Russian activity and Ukrainian effectiveness in this sector. ОТУ "Харків" reports the destruction of a Russian mobile EW complex "Borshchevik" by Ukrainian drones on this direction.
• Sumy Oblast: Russian tactical aviation activity poses a threat of guided aerial weapons. WarGonzo reports fighting in Sumy Oblast near several settlements, including claimed Russian advances near Belovody and Basovka, and reports of Ukrainian desertions. Ukraine reports repelling 15 combat engagements in Kursk Oblast, adjacent to Sumy. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Myropillya, Prokhody, and Zapsillya. Guided aerial bombs are reported towards Sumy Oblast. Сливочный каприз reports significant Ukrainian equipment losses in this region between March 3-9.
• Donetsk Oblast: Russian tactical aviation activity poses a threat of guided aerial weapons. Mash on Donbas reports a woman has died from injuries sustained during a HIMARS shelling of Horlivka yesterday. Ukraine reports repelling 10 Russian assaults on the Kramatorsk direction, 14 on the Toretsk direction, and 23 on the Novopavlivsk direction. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Volodymyrivka. Underdubny reports liquidation of Ukrainian EW head on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. Colonelcassad reports destruction of a Ukrainian 2S1 "Gvozdika" howitzer in Nelepivka by a "Lancet" drone by the 238th Artillery Brigade. Liveuamap reports 13 combat engagements near Mayske, Predtechyne, Bila Hora, Kurdumivka and Chasiv Yar, 6 attacks near Dachne, Toretsk, Krymske, and towards Dyliyivka, and 13 attacks near Kostyantynopil, Burlatske, Pryvilne, Rivnopil and towards Odradne. WarGonzo reports a "Molniya" drone strike on a Ukrainian M113 APC on the Chasiv Yar direction. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims the liberation of the settlement of Nove in the Donetsk People's Republic. Colonelcassad shares a map claiming Russian advances and expanded control on the Chasov Yar and Novopavlivsk (likely referring to areas on this broader direction) axes.
• Khmelnytskyi Oblast: Hostile strike UAVs observed in the north, course - southern/western. A hostile UAV reported from the north heading towards Starokostiantyniv.
• Volyn and Lviv Oblasts: Air raid alert issued due to the threat of Russian strike UAVs.
• Mykolaiv Oblast: Alleged Ukrainian force movements and training activities reported by Russian sources, potentially for a future offensive towards Crimea. Use of small craft and potential minefield removal activities are also claimed, particularly in coastal areas.
• Kherson Oblast: Alleged Ukrainian force movements reported by Russian sources, potentially for a future offensive towards Crimea. Use of small craft and potential minefield removal activities are also claimed, particularly in coastal areas. Rocket danger is reported. Ukraine reports repelling 5 Russian assaults on the Prydniprovskyi direction and reports significant Russian losses in the Southern direction, including boats. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Kherson. Ukrainian forces have repelled 1 Russian army assault on the Kherson axis.
• Kursk Oblast (Russia): Claimed interception of 15 Ukrainian UAVs. Explosions and fires after drone attacks are reported in Rylsk. South Korean intelligence is cited claiming significant casualties among North Korean soldiers fighting in this region. WarGonzo reports continued fighting and casualties in border regions, ongoing mine clearance efforts, and attempts by Ukrainian groups to cross into Russia. Ukraine reports repelling 15 combat engagements here. Ukrainian forces have repelled 25 Russian army assaults in the Kursk region. This indicates a significant increase in the intensity of Russian ground attacks in this area. Сливочный каприз reports significant Ukrainian equipment losses in this region between March 3-9.
• Bryansk Oblast (Russia): Claimed interception of 8 Ukrainian UAVs. Explosions reported. The governor of Bryansk Oblast reports nearly 5000 attacks on the oblast this year, resulting in 1112 fires, saving 28 people, and evacuating 120. He highlights the professionalism of the fire service in dealing with the consequences of attacks and allocates funds for fire equipment, EW, and increased salaries. This provides a quantitative assessment of the scale of attacks on this border region and the response efforts.
• Oryol Oblast (Russia): Claimed interception of 7 Ukrainian UAVs.
• Vladimir Oblast (Russia): Claimed interception of 3 Ukrainian UAVs. Continued Ukrainian drone attacks reported on the Murom Instrument-Making Plant, with reports of damage and fires to a product warehouse and checkpoint. Explosions and fires after drone attacks are reported in Murom. Оперативний ЗСУ and RBC-Ukraine report that SBU drones struck the Murom Instrument-Making Plant, which produces components for the Russian Navy and Air Force, resulting in explosions, damage, and fire.
• Belgorod Oblast (Russia): Claimed interception of 1 Ukrainian UAV. WarGonzo reports increased drone attacks on civilian areas and casualties.
• Khanty-Mansiysk (Russia): Russian authorities report an accidental explosion of an IED by alleged Ukrainian agents, resulting in injuries and detentions. A criminal case for preparation of a terrorist act has been initiated, with involved persons taken into custody. The transit of components through Poland, Lithuania, and Belarus is highlighted.
• Horlivka: A woman injured in a previous HIMARS shelling has died.
• South Korea: South Korean intelligence is cited claiming over 600 North Korean soldiers were killed out of 15,000 deployed to Kursk Oblast.
• Russia: Detention of alleged Ukrainian agents involved in sabotage and assassination attempts. Official renaming of Volgograd airport to "Stalingrad." Construction of a bridge between Russia and North Korea underway. Law enforcement actions against scammers and a vice-mayor in Krasnodar. Explosions heard in Bryansk Oblast and airports in Nizhny Novgorod, Ivanovo, and Yaroslavl had flight restrictions. Military warehouse fire reported in Zabaykalye. Russia's Investigative Committee reports detaining a 15-year-old schoolboy in Rostov who allegedly assembled a bomb for Ukrainian special services. This further highlights Russian claims of Ukrainian sabotage activities within Russia, focusing on recruitment of minors. Север.Реалии reports a resident of Veliky Novgorod was sentenced to 12 years for setting fire to a railway relay box, with the court citing disagreement with Russian domestic and foreign policy. This highlights internal security concerns and severe legal consequences for perceived dissent or actions against infrastructure.
• Lyman Axis: Ukraine reports repelling 18 Russian assaults. Liveuamap reports 21 attempted enemy advances near multiple settlements. Russian sources claim positional battles and expanded control east of Katerynivka, advancing 2.5 km. Colonelcassad shares a map claiming Russian advances and expanded control on this axis.
• Siversk Axis: Ukraine reports repelling 6 Russian assaults. Liveuamap reports 4 enemy attacks near Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamyanske. Colonelcassad shares a map claiming Russian advances and expanded control on this axis.
• Chernihiv Region: Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Semenivka.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Berezove. Ukrainian Air Force reports this region was a main direction of a large-scale Russian drone attack overnight.
• Nelepivka: Destruction of a Ukrainian howitzer by a Russian Lancet drone reported.
• Rivne Oblast: Hostile strike UAVs are reported.
• Moscow: Traffic restrictions are in place for Victory Parade preparations. News from Moscow reports on a new project to create software for humanoid robots. Russian sources are discussing the cost of river electric transport. Medvedev continues strong rhetoric about "Bandera-Nazis" and "peace through fear." Peskov states that Russia is grateful to WWII allies but the second front was opened late, and the USSR would have coped without Lend-Lease which was a "paid service." He also discusses the legitimacy of Zelenskyy and confirms Putin is open to negotiations but needs nuances resolved. Peskov confirms China's leader will attend the Victory Day parade in Moscow, but India's Prime Minister will not. He emphasizes that Russia is part of Europe and the world based on mutual respect and law and that Russia will defend itself. He announces a film about Putin.
• Ukraine: Ukrainian parliament has extended the period for voluntary return from absence without leave (AWOL) until August 30, 2025, and introduced online reporting for this via the "Army+" application.
• China: Peskov confirmed China's leader will attend the Victory Day parade in Moscow. This indicates continued strong political ties between Russia and China.
• India: Peskov stated India's Prime Minister will not attend the Victory Day parade in Moscow.
• Belarus: Construction of a bridge between Russia and North Korea is underway, potentially involving Belarus in the transit of components for alleged sabotage within Russia.
• Poland: Alleged transit of IED components through Poland mentioned in connection with the Khanty-Mansiysk incident.
• Lithuania: Alleged transit of IED components through Lithuania mentioned in connection with the Khanty-Mansiysk incident.
• Romania: US State Department approved the sale of Patriot air defense systems to Romania.
• Murom Instrument-Making Plant (Vladimir Oblast, Russia): Reported SBU drone strike resulting in explosions, damage, and fire.
• Nove (Donetsk People's Republic): Russian Ministry of Defense claims liberation of this settlement.
• Belovody (Russia): Colonelcassad shares a map claiming Russian advances and expanded control in this area.
• Doroshovka (Kharkiv Oblast): Colonelcassad shares a map claiming Russian advances and expanded control in this area.
• Kamenka (Russia): Colonelcassad shares a map claiming Russian advances and expanded control in this area.
• Shevchenko (Donetsk Oblast): Colonelcassad shares a map claiming Russian advances and expanded control in this area.

Potential Future Developments

• Continued Russian Offensive Pressure: Expect sustained Russian assaults, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis, as they aim to achieve tactical breakthroughs and potentially reach administrative borders. The reported reinforcement of this axis by Ukrainian forces indicates anticipation of continued heavy fighting. Russian efforts on the Southern Donetsk and Sumy axes will likely continue, as will pressure on the Toretsk and Lyman axes. The significant increase in Russian attacks in the Kursk region suggests this will remain a highly active and contested area. Claimed Russian advances on multiple fronts, including the liberation of Nove, indicate continued efforts to gain ground.
• Persistent and Evolving Aerial Threats: Russia will likely continue widespread drone attacks, potentially with shifts in targeting and routes as seen with the recent alerts in western Ukraine. Rocket danger in Kherson Oblast indicates potential for continued missile strikes in the south. Continued drone activity in border regions and against Russian infrastructure, particularly military-industrial targets and logistics hubs, is probable. The allocation of resources for remote mining and drones by Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhzhia suggests these capabilities will be increasingly utilized. Successful Ukrainian drone strikes on targets within Russia are likely to continue.
• Increased Diplomatic Messaging: Expect continued emphasis from Russian sources on readiness for negotiations, potentially linked to alleged Ukrainian vulnerabilities or military limitations and the narrative of successful counter-terrorism operations within Russia. Counter-messaging from Ukraine is also likely, focusing on Russian aggression, the need for sustained international support, and the humanitarian impact of attacks. Donald Trump's statements will continue to be a factor in this discourse. Russian rhetoric around historical events, especially WWII and Lend-Lease, is likely to continue as part of information operations. The rejection of a truce by a high-ranking Ukrainian official indicates a firm stance against a ceasefire without significant concessions. The potential for direct US-Russia dialogue adds a new dimension to diplomatic efforts.
• Focus on Internal Russian Security and Information Operations: Russian authorities will likely continue to highlight alleged Ukrainian sabotage and assassination attempts within Russia, particularly the details of the Khanty-Mansiysk and Rostov incidents, to justify security measures and reinforce the narrative of a hostile Ukrainian regime and the need for vigilance. Military parades and symbolic actions like airport renaming will likely be used for internal morale and to project an image of normalcy and strength. Efforts to recruit minors for sabotage activities, as claimed by Russian sources, would be a concerning development if verified. Increased convictions for acts perceived as terrorism linked to the conflict highlight a crackdown on internal dissent and actions against infrastructure. Potential large-scale mobilization in Russia remains a significant concern, although the timing and nature are uncertain.
• Debate on European Military Support: Discussions within European nations regarding the feasibility and nature of military support deployments to Ukraine are likely to continue, with a potential shift towards training and non-combat roles being considered by some. The approved sale of Patriot systems to Romania highlights ongoing efforts to strengthen NATO's eastern flank, but also points to limitations in the global supply of critical air defense components for Ukraine.
• Information Operations Regarding External Support and Casualties: Russian sources will likely continue to frame international support for Ukraine, particularly from the UK and the US, as efforts to prolong the conflict and hinder peace, while also highlighting alleged involvement of foreign fighters and their casualties (such as the claims regarding North Korean and French personnel) and highlighting perceived Western limitations (US debt, European troop shortfalls). Ukrainian sources will continue to emphasize the need for Western aid and the effectiveness of received equipment. Claims of increased Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory to disrupt peace talks are likely to continue.
• Speculation on Ukrainian Offensive Plans: Russian sources may continue to disseminate speculative narratives about potential Ukrainian offensives, such as the claimed plans for an attack towards Crimea, potentially to justify defensive measures or portray Ukraine as the aggressor.
• Continued Humanitarian Impact: Ongoing fighting and aerial attacks will likely continue to result in civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure, particularly in frontline areas and targeted regions, as seen in the reports from Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Dobropillia. The reported death of a woman in Horlivka is a somber reminder of this.
• Development and Deployment of Unmanned Systems and Countermeasures: The reported destruction of Ukrainian EW systems and armored vehicles by Russian drones, the Ukrainian testing of smart mining and demining technologies, and continued fundraising efforts for drones by both sides indicate the ongoing importance of unmanned systems and electronic warfare in the conflict. The reported liquidation of a Ukrainian EW head suggests a targeted effort by Russia against these capabilities. The significant supply of drones and remote mining capabilities to Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhzhia suggests these will play a major role in future operations in that sector. Ukrainian success in destroying a Russian mobile EW complex highlights the ongoing EW struggle.
• Mine Clearance Operations: Ongoing and potentially protracted mine clearance efforts in areas like Kursk Oblast will be necessary before civilian life can fully resume. The high number of remote mining devices supplied to Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhzhia indicates extensive mining of that area is also underway.
• Logistical Connectivity: The construction of a new bridge between Russia and North Korea indicates a strategic effort to enhance logistical ties, potentially facilitating the transfer of military supplies or personnel.
• Internal Ukrainian Military Adjustments: The reported extension of the period for voluntary return from AWOL and the introduction of online reporting reflect efforts to address personnel issues and improve internal discipline.
• Economic Impacts: Reports of a sharp decline in Russian GDP growth could influence Russia's long-term ability to sustain the conflict. Ongoing issues with internet access in certain Russian regions could have economic and social implications.
• Political Messaging and Symbolism: Preparations for the Victory Day parade in Moscow and the attendance of foreign leaders like China's Xi Jinping are significant for domestic and international political messaging. The planned film about Putin further contributes to this.

Potential Indicators

• Observable changes in the intensity or direction of Russian ground assaults on the Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, Toretsk, Lyman, Sumy, and Kursk axes and other claimed areas of advance. Claimed Russian liberation of Nove and advances on multiple fronts require verification.
• Reports of successful defensive actions and claimed Russian losses by Ukrainian forces on key axes, supported by visual evidence.
• Confirmation of missile launches and impacts, particularly from Russian tactical aviation on frontline areas and any new targeting patterns in Kherson and Sumy Oblasts. Reports of continued KAB strikes.
• Reports of successful air defense engagements against Russian strike UAVs in western Ukrainian oblasts. The effectiveness of Ukrainian air defenses against large-scale drone attacks will be a key indicator.
• Further reports or evidence of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory, particularly targeting military-industrial facilities and logistics, and claimed interceptions by Russian forces. Reports of continued explosions or incidents at Russian military or infrastructure sites, including the Murom Instrument-Making Plant.
• Changes in the rhetoric or official stance of Russian and Ukrainian officials regarding peace negotiations, and any statements or actions from Donald Trump impacting this. The rejection of a truce by a high-ranking Ukrainian official is a significant indicator.
• Further details or developments regarding the alleged Ukrainian agents and their activities within Russia, including court proceedings or additional detentions related to the Khanty-Mansiysk and Rostov incidents. Any independent verification or refutation of claims regarding the recruitment of minors for sabotage. Continued convictions for acts perceived as terrorism will be an indicator of internal security measures.
• Statements or decisions from European nations regarding the nature and scale of potential military support deployments to Ukraine.
• Continued dissemination of information operations from both sides regarding military successes, casualties, and external support, including new narratives surrounding North Korean involvement and alleged foreign fighters. Russian messaging regarding Lend-Lease and WWII alliances. Claims of increased Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory to disrupt peace talks.
• Independent verification or detailed reporting on alleged Ukrainian force movements and activities in southern Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts, including any evidence of preparations for offensive operations.
• Continued reports of civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure from shelling and aerial attacks, with detailed information on affected areas like Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Dobropillia, and border regions of Russia like Bryansk and Belgorod.
• Any observed changes in the types or numbers of drones and EW systems being deployed by either side, and the success of related fundraising efforts. Reports on the outcomes or further deployment of the smart mining and demining technologies tested by Ukraine. Evidence of the deployment and effectiveness of the newly supplied drones and remote mining capabilities in Zaporizhzhia. Reports on the impact of the destruction of the Russian "Borshchevik" EW complex.
• Reports on the progress and challenges of mine clearance operations in border regions and in areas like Zaporizhzhia.
• Any observable impact of potential US responses to Houthi attacks on the US military's presence or activities in other regions relevant to the conflict.
• Further information regarding the reported liquidation of the Ukrainian EW head and its impact on capabilities in the Krasnoarmeysk direction.
• Updates on the implementation and impact of potential changes to Ukrainian TCC staffing and the deployment of wounded personnel to non-combat roles. The effectiveness of measures to address AWOL personnel.
• Further economic indicators from Russia and analysis of their potential impact on military expenditure. Reports on the resolution or continuation of internet access issues in the North Caucasus.
• Any unusual security measures or incidents related to the Victory Day parade in Moscow. The attendance of foreign leaders.
• Further information or developments regarding potential direct US-Russia dialogue.