Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (April 30, 2025, 06:53 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational tempo remains exceptionally high, characterized by intense ground combat and significant aerial activity. Recent intelligence confirms ongoing heavy fighting across multiple axes. Russian forces are claiming further advances in several areas, including near Loknya and Belovodye on the Sumy direction, attempting to reach the road leading to Kursk Oblast. They also report continued efforts to push near Uspenovka, Novoaleksandrovka, and Kotlyarovka south of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk). On the Southern Donetsk direction, mutual high-intensity strikes are reported near Otradnoye, Bogatyr, and Volnoye Pole, with Russia attempting to breach Ukrainian defenses and Ukraine conducting counterattacks. Heavy fighting continues on the Zaporizhzhia front near Shcherbakiv, Mala Tokmachka, and Stepove, characterized by numerous drone and artillery strikes hindering Russian advances. Intense fighting is also reported in the Kursk border region against scattered Ukrainian infantry groups, with continued activity by Ukrainian SSO groups south of Oleshnya. Russia claims to have repelled a Ukrainian assault group near Demidovka on the Belgorod section. DeepState reports enemy occupation of Sukha Balka and advances towards Kostiantynopil, Dachne, and Toretsk, and also reports Russian advances on the Novopavlivsk direction. Units of the 29th Combined Arms Army of the "Vostok" group continue to "dispose" of Ukrainian equipment and infantry near Bogatyr, advancing towards the borders of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The Southern Ukraine Defense Forces report stopping 13 Russian attacks on the Novopavlivsk direction near Kostiantynopil, Burlatske, Pryvilne, Rivnopil, and towards Otradne over the past day. The TASS news agency, citing the Russian Ministry of Defense, reports that FPV drone operators of the "Rubikon" center hit an ammunition depot and a temporary deployment point of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Donetsk direction. The Southern Ukraine Defense Forces report no Russian offensive actions on the Huliaipole and Orikhiv directions over the past day.

Aerial threats remain significant and widespread. Multiple groups of "Shahed" strike UAVs are currently active, with movements reported in Sumy Oblast (center moving west, near the border with Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts moving southwest), and new groups consistently approaching Kharkiv from the north. Air defense is currently engaged against Russian drones in Kyiv Oblast, and a new group of "Shaheds" is reported on the south of Kyiv Oblast, heading towards Bila Tserkva. Further "Shahed" movements have been reported from the northeast of Vinnytsia Oblast towards Zhytomyr Oblast, and from Sumy Oblast towards Chernihiv Oblast, and from Kyiv and Cherkasy Oblasts towards the west, indicating a dynamic and shifting drone threat across central and western Ukraine. A Russian missile carrier in the Black Sea with a total salvo of up to 6 "Kalibr" missiles and a "Kalibr" carrier in the Mediterranean with up to 8 missiles are reported by the Ukrainian Air Force. No Russian ships are reported in the Azov Sea. Temporary operational restrictions were implemented at airports in Ivanovo, Nizhny Novgorod, and Yaroslavl due to perceived aerial threats, although these restrictions have reportedly been lifted. Russian sources claim to have intercepted and destroyed 34 Ukrainian UAVs over multiple regions of Russia, including 15 over Kursk Oblast and 8 over Bryansk Oblast. Ukrainian sources also report a drone attack on an enterprise in Murom, Vladimir Oblast, specifically targeting the Murom Instrument-Making Plant, which produces explosives and is under EU sanctions. The fire at a warehouse on the premises was attributed to the falling UAV, with reports of multiple drones involved and suppressed by electronic warfare. Explosions and fires after drone attacks are reported in both Murom and Rylsk. A Ukrainian Shahed is reported heading towards Myrhorod in Poltava Oblast from the west. Ukrainian forces in the South report destroying 10 Shahed-136 UAVs over the past day. The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of enemy reconnaissance UAVs in the west of Zaporizhzhia Oblast that could be targeting aids, with measures being taken to shoot them down and warnings for residents to seek shelter if alarms are sounded. The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on the Donetsk region. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of guided aerial weapons employment for frontline areas due to the activity of enemy tactical aviation on the eastern direction and the northeastern direction. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a hostile UAV from the north heading towards Starokostiantyniv (Khmelnytskyi Oblast) and hostile strike UAVs observed in the north of Khmelnytskyi Oblast, course - southern/western.

Propaganda and information operations continue from both sides. A Russian military blogger published an analysis speculating on potential Ukrainian threats to the Victory Day parade in Moscow, suggesting "sleeper cells" and various drone attack scenarios, while downplaying the likelihood of attacks on foreign leaders. Russian sources are also highlighting claimed successes in repelling Ukrainian cross-border incursions and inflicting casualties. Ukrainian sources are reporting on the effectiveness of their air defense and naval forces and highlighting significant cumulative Russian losses in personnel, vehicles, and artillery. The Ukrainian General Staff reports a total of 177 combat engagements over the past day, including 75 on the Pokrovsk direction. They also report that over the past day, the enemy launched 91 airstrikes, dropping 179 guided bombs, conducted almost 5900 shellings (95 from MLRS), and used 3186 kamikaze drones. A Russian source reports on the detention of a citizen in South Ossetia accused of treason for providing information to Georgian special services, potentially relevant to broader Russian security concerns in the region. Ukrainian sources report that 300 convicted collaborators are listed on the state project "Ho chu ksvoim" and wish to leave for Russia in exchange for the return of Ukrainian prisoners of war, with Russia reportedly informed but refusing to take them back. Russian sources are disseminating a narrative about civilians in Odesa Oblast repelling TCC (Territorial Recruitment Center) efforts to mobilize a person with Down syndrome. A Russian official from occupied Donetsk, previously accused of attempting to claim compensation for a deceased son he had minimal contact with, is reportedly seeking to return to the civil service after a brief military contract in a commandant's office. Statements attributed to Donald Trump, claiming Putin desires peace and is ready to cease hostilities, are circulating in Russian and Ukrainian sources. Russia is claiming advances by its fighters by several kilometers towards the village of Petrovskoye (Hrekivka) in the LNR. An interview with Ukrainian Major General Illya Pavlenko is highlighted, discussing Russian intelligence activities and the 2022 invasion. Reports from India mention the mass destruction of mosques and illegal Islamic places of worship amidst tensions with Pakistan. A Russian soldier's video allegedly shows the aftermath of a Ukrainian drone strike on Russian positions, including a destroyed "chemical laboratory." Reports from Russia mention the conviction of a man for attempting to poison Russian pilots in Armavir, allegedly recruited by Ukrainian special services, and another case of alleged pressure on activists in Voronezh. A Russian court reportedly prohibited hiring "only Slavs." Maria Zakharova, Russian MFA representative, claims that statements from Kyiv regarding striking the Victory Day parade indicate that the "Kyiv regime" is undermining peace efforts and acts like terrorists, referencing Zelenskyy and a secretary of the Rada defense committee. A Russian military blogger shared information about South Korean intelligence claiming over 600 North Korean soldiers were killed out of 15,000 deployed to Kursk Oblast, while also suggesting comparing this to Chechen losses. A video from a Russian military blogger purportedly shows a "candidate" for a Tu-22M3 strategic bomber pilot in the Russian Aerospace Forces. Rybar reports that Russia has rejected US proposals for a ceasefire based on the current front lines, including sanctions relief and recognition of Crimea, stating that the completion of combat operations is only possible with the full control of the "new regions" by Russia, also rejecting joint control over the Zaporizhzhia NPP. Rybar characterizes this as expected and consistent with 2024 statements, highlighting the continued contradictions between Russia and the US and that the situation on the front dictates negotiation prospects. A Russian military blogger claims a court in Moscow prohibited job postings using the phrase "only Slavs," citing anti-discrimination laws, and suggests using alternative phrasing. TASS reports that the airport in Volgograd has been officially given the historical name "Stalingrad." The head of the FSB reception in Russia claims that scammers are stealing money from victims under the guise of "secret operations" of state security agencies. The Times reports that Europe cannot even gather 25,000 troops for a mission in Ukraine, despite a call for a contingent of up to 64,000 by the UK chief of the defense staff. The Times reports that the UK and France are now leaning towards sending instructors and training units to western Ukraine rather than a full multinational ground contingent. TASS reports that three agents of the Ukrainian special services who were preparing an assassination attempt on a participant of the special operation have been detained by the FSB. TASS reports that two agents recruited by Ukraine were injured in an accidental explosion of an improvised explosive device in Khanty-Mansiysk. The Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation reports that the explosion in a residential building in Khanty-Mansiysk in April 2025 was caused by the detonation of an improvised explosive device by agents of the Ukrainian special services. Mash on Donbas reports that a woman who was injured during the shelling of Horlivka by HIMARS yesterday has died, bringing the number of injured to 17. ASTRA reports that more footage of the night attack on the Murom Instrument-Making Plant in the Vladimir region has emerged. Rybar posts about the "Butovo question" concerning the "creeping Islamization" of a district in Moscow due to the influx of migrants and associated crime. Басурин о главном disseminates a narrative claiming that the UK is the main enemy of peace in Ukraine, actively working against peace efforts, particularly those attributed to Donald Trump, and highlighting the UK's procurement of drones from a New Zealand company for Ukraine. Капрал provides excerpts from Western publications discussing the impact of Trump's policies, the resilience of the Russian economy despite sanctions, and reports on a leaked US peace proposal involving recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming Russian forces are disrupting Ukrainian rotations on the Southern Donetsk direction near Bogatyr using ZALA Z-16 drones and Uragan MLRS. Поддубный echoes this report on the Southern Donetsk direction near Bogatyr, mentioning artillery, UAVs, and aviation support, and also notes the mining of probable routes of movement for Ukrainian personnel. Николаевский Ванёк shares a video showing a Russian soldier being hit by two drone drops, stating that typical Russian attacks involve lone assault troops and highlighting the high density of Ukrainian drones on the front line.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

• Sumy Oblast: "Shaheds" in the center moving west, and a group near the borders of Sumy, Chernihiv, and Poltava Oblasts moving southwest. Russian forces reportedly advancing near Loknya and Belovodye. KAB strikes reported on the border. Ukrainian drone attacks reported in the suburb of Rylsk, Kursk Oblast, causing civilian casualties and damage. "Shaheds" from Sumy Oblast moving towards Chernihiv Oblast. The Office of the Prosecutor General has initiated an investigation into a drone attack in Esman community on April 29th around 06:00, which killed a 31-year-old man and injured his 59-year-old father while they were preparing beehives on their property. Arkhangel Spetsnaza claims intensified strikes on the Sudzhansky district of Kursk Oblast, including HIMARS and Su-24 with Storm Shadow, and notes Ukrainian force buildup near Yunakovka-Sadki and movement towards Basovka in Sumy Oblast, suggesting preparation for a new attack on Oleshnya. STERNENKO shares a video claiming Ukrainian drone operators are destroying Russian personnel in Sumy Oblast.
• Kharkiv Oblast: New groups of "Shaheds" are again reported moving from the north towards Kharkiv. Explosions reported in Kharkiv. The number of injured in the evening drone attack has risen to 45, including 14 with injuries of varying severity requiring hospitalization for 5, and 31 experiencing acute stress reactions. Among the injured are two children and a pregnant woman. Emergency medical teams were deployed to assist the casualties. A regional summary reports 15 drone strikes on Kharkiv, damaging 14 private and 3 apartment buildings, a civilian enterprise, and a medical facility, resulting in 11 fires. Overall, 55 attack drones and 13 KABs were reportedly used across Kharkiv Oblast. Localized incidents of shelling and drone attacks are reported in Kupiansk, Derhachi, Bohodukhiv, and Izium districts, causing casualties and damage to residential buildings, infrastructure, and vehicles. The Office of the Prosecutor General in Kharkiv has initiated investigations into war crimes related to the massive drone attack on Kharkiv on April 29th between 22:00 and 22:30, confirming 45 casualties including a 5-year-old girl and a 16-year-old boy, and significant damage to residential buildings, commercial properties, and a medical facility in various districts. Operational Command "Kharkiv" reports that Ukrainian forces stopped two Russian attacks near Vovchansk and towards Kamianka and repelled nine attacks on the Kupiansk direction near Zahryzove, Stepova Novoselivka, Petropavlivka, and Nova Kruhliakivka over the past day. Sever.Realii reports on the drone attack on Kharkiv on April 29th, noting 15 drones and at least 45 injured.
• Kyiv Oblast: Air defense is currently working against Russian drones. A group of "Shaheds" is reported on the south heading towards Bila Tserkva. "Shaheds" from Kyiv Oblast moving west.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Complex night in Dnipro with a massive "Shahed" attack, resulting in 1 fatality and 1 injury, and damage to residential areas, an enterprise, and other infrastructure. 9 UAVs reportedly shot down over the oblast. Continued shelling and drone attacks on Nikopol district (Nikopol, Myrivka, Marhanets, Pokrovske communities), damaging residential buildings, a restaurant complex, garages, cars, and power lines. Civilian accounts and videos from Dnipro describe the intense drone attack, highlighting fear, hiding from explosions, the loud noise, and the presence of acrid smoke from fires, and the awareness that neighboring houses were on fire. Sever.Realii reports on the drone attack on Dnipro on April 29th, noting one fatality and a 78-year-old injured.
• Donetsk Oblast: Continued KAB strikes reported by the Ukrainian Air Force. Intense fighting reported south of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) near Uspenovka, Novoaleksandrovka, and Kotlyarovka. Claimed Russian destruction of Ukrainian UAV and drones in the Chasiv Yar area. 75 combat engagements reported on the Pokrovsk direction over the past day. DeepState reports enemy occupation of Sukha Balka and advances towards Kostiantynopil, Dachne, and Toretsk. The Southern Ukraine Defense Forces report stopping 13 Russian attacks on the Novopavlivsk direction near Kostiantynopil, Burlatske, Pryvilne, Rivnopil, and towards Otradne over the past day. The TASS news agency, citing the Russian Ministry of Defense, reports that FPV drone operators of the "Rubikon" center hit an ammunition depot and a temporary deployment point of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Donetsk direction. The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on the Donetsk region. Mash on Donbas reports a woman has died from injuries sustained during a HIMARS shelling of Horlivka yesterday.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Heavy fighting near Shcherbakiv, Mala Tokmachka, and Stepove. Russian drone attack on a school bus in Mykhailivka district reported by Russian sources. Air raid alerts active. Ukrainian Air Force reports a new group of strike UAVs from the south heading towards Zaporizhzhia. A 68-year-old woman was injured in Russian attacks on Zaporizhzhia district. Russian attack on Prymorske resulted in a 45-year-old man injured and his car damaged. Russian military bloggers shared photos of alleged trophies and findings after "clearing enemy positions" on the Zaporizhzhia direction, showing damaged drone parts, a grenade, and what appears to be a damaged aircraft engine. The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of enemy reconnaissance UAVs in the west of Zaporizhzhia Oblast that could be targeting aids, with measures being taken to shoot them down and warnings for residents to seek shelter if alarms are sounded. The Southern Ukraine Defense Forces report no Russian offensive actions on the Huliaipole and Orikhiv directions over the past day. A region-wide air alert has been announced in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports missile danger in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• Kursk Oblast: Ongoing combat against scattered Ukrainian infantry groups in the border region. Continued activity by Ukrainian SSO groups south of Oleshnya. Ukrainian drone attacks reported in the suburb of Rylsk causing civilian casualties and damage. Russian MoD claims 15 Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted over the oblast. Ukrainian drones reportedly attacked Kursk Oblast during the night. Ukrainian defense forces stopped 25 attacks by Russian invaders over the past day. Explosions and fires after drone attacks are reported in Rylsk. A Russian military blogger shared information claiming South Korean intelligence reports that over 600 North Korean soldiers were killed out of 15,000 deployed for combat in Kursk Oblast. Sever.Realii reports 15 drones shot down over Kursk Oblast and three injured. Arkhangel Spetsnaza claims intensified strikes on the Sudzhansky district, including HIMARS and Su-24 with Storm Shadow, and notes Ukrainian force buildup near Yunakovka-Sadki and movement towards Basovka in Sumy Oblast, suggesting preparation for a new attack on Oleshnya. Arkhangel Spetsnaza also notes increased strikes in the Korenevsky district and drone arrivals in Rylsk, potentially indicating Ukrainian activation on the Bryansk-Kursk border. Alex Parker Returns shares information attributed to South Korean intelligence about North Korean casualties in Kursk Oblast.
• Belgorod Oblast (Russia): Russia claims to have repelled a Ukrainian assault group near Demidovka. Reports of civilian casualties from alleged Ukrainian drone attacks in Grayvoron district. Russian MoD claims 1 Ukrainian UAV was intercepted over the oblast. Russian BPLA operators reportedly targeting "Baba Yaga" heavy drones in the border region.
• Southern Donetsk Direction: Intense mutual strikes reported near Otradnoye, Bogatyr, and Volnoye Pole. Russia claims drone strikes liquidated Ukrainian UAV operators in Bohohatyr. Claimed Russian artillery strike on a Ukrainian temporary deployment point in Bogatyr. Units of the 29th Combined Arms Army of the "Vostok" group are reportedly engaged in combat near Bogatyr, advancing towards the borders of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming Russian forces are disrupting Ukrainian rotations on the Southern Donetsk direction near Bogatyr using ZALA Z-16 drones and Uragan MLRS. Поддубный echoes this report on the Southern Donetsk direction near Bogatyr, mentioning artillery, UAVs, and aviation support, and also notes the mining of probable routes of movement for Ukrainian personnel.
• Oryol Oblast (Russia): Russian MoD claims 7 Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted over the oblast.
• Bryansk Oblast (Russia): Russian MoD claims 8 Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted over the oblast. The governor of Bryansk Oblast reports a civilian injury from a Ukrainian drone attack in Novye Yurkovichi. Arkhangel Spetsnaza notes increased strikes in the Korenevsky district and drone arrivals in Rylsk, potentially indicating Ukrainian activation on the Bryansk-Kursk border.
• Vladimir Oblast (Russia): Fire at a warehouse in Murrom attributed to a falling UAV targeting the Murom Instrument-Making Plant. Russian MoD claims 3 Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted over the oblast. Explosions and fires after drone attacks are reported in Murom. STERNENKO reports on the drone attack in Murom, citing the governor's statement about suppressed drones and a fire at a warehouse on an enterprise, and local reports indicating the target was the Murom Instrument-Making Plant. Sever.Realii reports a fire at a commercial enterprise in Murom due to falling drones. ASTRA shares video footage of the night attack on the Murom Instrument-Making Plant.
• Ivanovo, Nizhny Novgorod, Yaroslavl (Russia): Temporary airport operational restrictions imposed, then reportedly lifted.
• Vinnytsia Oblast: "Shaheds" from the northeast of Vinnytsia Oblast moving towards Zhytomyr Oblast. One "Shahed" is reported heading towards Koziatyn. "Shaheds" are reported on the border of Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblasts, course - western.
• Chernihiv Oblast: "Shaheds" from Sumy Oblast moving towards Chernihiv Oblast. A "Shahed" is reported on the south of Chernihiv Oblast, course - western/southwestern.
• Cherkasy Oblast: "Shaheds" from Cherkasy Oblast moving west.
• Zhytomyr Oblast: Target of "Shaheds" from Vinnytsia Oblast. "Shaheds" are reported on the border of Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblasts, course - western.
• Novopavlivsk Direction: DeepState reports Russian advances. The Southern Ukraine Defense Forces report stopping 13 Russian attacks near Kostiantynopil, Burlatske, Pryvilne, Rivnopil, and towards Otradne over the past day.
• Black Sea: 1 Russian ship, a Kalibr missile carrier with a total salvo of up to 6 missiles reported. The Southern Ukraine Defense Forces report destroying 10 Shahed-136 UAVs over the past day.
• Mediterranean Sea: 3 Russian ships, including 1 Kalibr missile carrier with a total salvo of up to 8 missiles reported.
• Azov Sea: No Russian ships reported.
• Kerch Strait: Significant Russian vessel traffic reported (7 ships to the Black Sea, 10 to the Azov Sea in the last day).
• South Ossetia (Georgia): Detention of a citizen on treason charges for allegedly transmitting information to Georgian special services, potentially relevant to Russian security interests in the region.
• Belarus: Russian instructors conducting training for Belarusian special forces, focusing on drone operations, firearms, and tactical medicine.
• Odesa Oblast: Russian sources disseminate narrative about civilians repelling TCC efforts. A Russian military blogger shared photos and a narrative claiming that villagers in Odesa Oblast repelled TCC attempts to mobilize a shepherd with Down syndrome, portraying it as an example of strong community resistance against the system.
• Occupied Donetsk (Russia): Russian official reportedly seeking return to civil service after brief military contract. ASTRA reports on the case of Dmitriy Maydikov, an official from occupied Donetsk accused of trying to claim compensation for his deceased son with whom he had minimal contact, who has applied for a competition to return to the civil service after a brief military contract in a commandant's office, highlighting his stated desire to contribute after his son's death and his belief in upcoming peace agreements.
• LNR (Ukraine): Russia claims advances towards the village of Petrovskoye (Hrekivka). Andrei Marochko, a Russian source, claims Russian fighters have advanced several kilometers towards the village of Petrovskoye (Hrekivka) in the LNR over the past few days.
• Armavir (Russia): Report of conviction for attempted poisoning of Russian pilots. Poddubny reports on the conviction of Egor Semenov to 27 years imprisonment for attempting to poison Russian pilots in Armavir in October 2023, allegedly recruited by Ukrainian special services, highlighting his Ukrainian origin, Russian citizenship, initial anti-SVO stance, and the thwarted plot.
• Voronezh (Russia): Reports of alleged pressure on activists. Sever.Realii reports on alleged pressure and violence against four activists in Voronezh after they posted about local problems on Telegram, including searches, beatings, and being forced to record "repentance videos," highlighting concerns about state suppression of dissent.
• India: Reports of mass destruction of mosques and illegal Islamic places of worship amidst tensions with Pakistan. Basurin shared a video report claiming mass destruction of mosques and illegal Islamic places of worship in India amidst tensions with Pakistan, framing it as a "war on religion."
• Poltava Oblast: A Ukrainian Shahed is reported heading towards Myrhorod from the west. A Ukrainian Shahed is reported heading towards Myrhorod.
• South Korea: South Korean intelligence reportedly claims over 600 North Korean soldiers were killed out of 15,000 deployed to Kursk Oblast.
• Myrhorod: A Ukrainian Shahed is reported heading towards Myrhorod.
• Russia: A Russian court reportedly prohibited hiring "only Slavs" in job advertisements. The airport in Volgograd has been officially given the historical name "Stalingrad." The head of the FSB reception in Russia claims that scammers are stealing money from victims under the guise of "secret operations" of state security agencies. TASS reports the detention of three Ukrainian agents preparing an assassination attempt on a participant of the special operation. TASS reports that two agents recruited by Ukraine were injured in an accidental explosion of an improvised explosive device in Khanty-Mansiysk. The Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation reports that the explosion in a residential building in Khanty-Mansiysk in April 2025 was caused by the detonation of an improvised explosive device by agents of the Ukrainian special services. Rybar posts about the "Butovo question" concerning the "creeping Islamization" of a district in Moscow due to the influx of migrants and associated crime.
• Donetsk Direction: The TASS news agency, citing the Russian Ministry of Defense, reports that FPV drone operators of the "Rubikon" center hit an ammunition depot and a temporary deployment point of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Donetsk direction.
• Hmelnytskyi Oblast: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a hostile UAV from the north heading towards Starokostiantyniv and hostile strike UAVs observed in the north of Khmelnytskyi Oblast, course - southern/western.
• Horlivka: Mash on Donbas reports a woman has died from injuries sustained during a HIMARS shelling yesterday.
• United Kingdom/Europe: The Times reports that Europe cannot even gather 25,000 troops for a mission in Ukraine, despite a call for a contingent of up to 64,000 by the UK chief of the defense staff. The Times reports that the UK and France are now leaning towards sending instructors and training units to western Ukraine rather than a full multinational ground contingent. Basurin о главном highlights the UK's procurement of drones from a New Zealand company for Ukraine.
• New Zealand: Basurin о главном highlights the UK's procurement of drones from a New Zealand company, SYOS Aerospace, for Ukraine.
• Khanzy-Mansiysk (Russia): TASS reports that two agents recruited by Ukraine were injured in an accidental explosion of an improvised explosive device. The Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation reports that the explosion in a residential building was caused by the detonation of an improvised explosive device by agents of the Ukrainian special services.

Potential Future Developments

• Continued and Shifting Drone Attacks: Expect ongoing drone attacks with potential shifts in targeting based on the reported movements of "Shahed" groups across central and western Ukraine, as well as sustained attacks on the front lines and in Russian border regions. Continued air defense engagements are expected in these areas. The drone attacks targeting Russian defense enterprises are likely to continue. Expect further incidents of explosions and fires in areas targeted by drones in Russia. Expect continued tracking and reporting of drone movements by Ukrainian forces, including updated trajectories towards specific locations like Myrhorod and Starokostiantyniv. Continued successful interceptions of Russian drones by Ukrainian forces, particularly Shaheds in the South and reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia, are likely. Continued Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory, including potential attacks on military and industrial targets in regions like Vladimir, Kursk, and Bryansk, are probable, with both sides reporting interceptions and damage.
• Sustained Russian Offensive Pressure: Based on Russian claims and reports of intense fighting, expect continued Russian attempts to advance on the Sumy, Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia fronts. The reported advances on the Toretsk and Novopavlivsk directions suggest these will also remain active areas of combat. Expect continued Russian efforts to advance in the LNR region, specifically towards Hrekivka. Expect continued intense combat near Bogatyr with Russian forces aiming to reach the borders of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Expect continued Russian attacks on the Novopavlivsk direction, with Ukraine defending. Expect continued Russian efforts to break through Ukrainian defenses on various axes, despite reported significant losses.
• Continued Fighting in Border Regions: Expect ongoing, likely localized, combat in the Kursk and Belgorod border areas. Ukrainian drone activity targeting these regions and further inland is probable. Reports of casualties from drone attacks in Russian border regions are likely to continue, including in Bryansk Oblast. Expect continued Ukrainian efforts to counter Russian advances in the Kursk region, including the use of HIMARS and tactical aviation with guided missiles, as claimed by Russian sources. Expect continued Ukrainian force buildup and potential offensive actions in the Sumy border region, particularly near Oleshnya.
• Potential for Missile Strikes: The presence of Kalibr carriers in the Black and Mediterranean Seas maintains the potential for missile strikes on Ukrainian territory. Expect continued use of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation on frontline areas, particularly in Donetsk Oblast.
• Impact of Naval Presence: The presence of the Kalibr carrier in the Black Sea will influence Ukrainian naval strategy and air defense posture. The lack of Russian ships in the Azov Sea could allow for increased Ukrainian activity or a shift in focus.
• Information Operations and Narrative Shaping: Further propaganda efforts from both sides are expected. Russia will likely continue to focus on perceived Ukrainian threats to significant events like Victory Day and highlighting claimed military successes and Ukrainian losses. Ukraine will likely continue to counter these narratives and highlight Russian actions and casualties, as well as the impact of attacks on civilians, supported by reported cumulative loss figures. Statements from international figures like Donald Trump regarding peace negotiations will likely be leveraged by both sides for their respective narratives. The Ukrainian project regarding collaborators and prisoner exchange will likely be utilized in information operations. Expect further Russian narratives aimed at undermining the image of Ukrainian mobilization efforts and highlighting internal social issues. Internal Russian information operations, including those related to the conflict and perceived internal threats, are likely to continue, such as warnings about scammers posing as state security agents and highlighting alleged extremist activity. Russian officials will likely continue to frame Ukrainian statements regarding strikes within Russia as evidence of a "terrorist regime" undermining peace. Discussions regarding potential peace negotiations will continue, with Russia maintaining a stance of requiring control over the "new regions." Russian state media and military bloggers will likely continue to disseminate narratives that align with the official Russian position on the conflict and its objectives. Internal Russian legal decisions, such as prohibiting discriminatory hiring practices, may be highlighted to present an image of a just society, potentially as a counterpoint to narratives about discrimination in other areas. Narratives about foreign interference and alleged Ukrainian sabotage and assassination attempts within Russia are likely to continue and be amplified by Russian authorities and media. Russian sources will likely continue to promote narratives about Western countries, particularly the UK, hindering peace efforts.
• Focus on Logistics and Supply: The reported significant traffic through the Kerch Strait indicates ongoing Russian logistical efforts, which could be a focus for Ukrainian interdiction efforts. Reports of Ukrainian units raising funds for equipment replacement highlight ongoing logistical needs on the Ukrainian side. The UK's procurement of drones for Ukraine from New Zealand indicates continued international logistical support for Ukraine.
• Continued Counter-Drone Efforts: Both sides will likely continue efforts to counter enemy drone activity, as indicated by the claimed Russian success in the Chasiv Yar area, the destruction of UAVs over Russian territory, the reported downing of "Shaheds" over Dnipropetrovsk and in the South, the targeting of Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones in the Belgorod region, and the successful use of electronic warfare in Murom and against reconnaissance UAVs in Zaporizhzhia. The training provided by Russian instructors to Belarusian forces suggests a focus on enhancing counter-drone and other modern warfare techniques. The sharing of images of downed drones and drone components by both sides is likely to continue as part of information operations and to showcase claimed successes in counter-drone operations. Expect continued Ukrainian use of drones against Russian personnel and equipment, as highlighted by videos of drone strikes.
• Security Concerns in Russian Border Regions and Beyond: The reported drone attacks and detentions for alleged treason in regions adjacent to the conflict highlight Russian concerns about security and intelligence gathering beyond the immediate front lines. Incidents related to alleged Ukrainian sabotage or attacks within Russia, such as the attempted poisoning in Armavir and the accidental explosion in Khanty-Mansiysk, are likely to be highlighted by Russian authorities and media, potentially framed as terrorist acts. Reports of civilian casualties from drone attacks in Russian border regions will continue to be a focus of Russian authorities and media. Investigations and reports regarding alleged subversive activities within Russia, such as the attempted poisoning case in Armavir and pressure on activists in Voronezh, are likely to continue. Rybar's concerns about "creeping Islamization" in Moscow could be a focus for internal security measures.
• Political and Diplomatic Maneuvering: Statements from figures like Donald Trump will continue to be analyzed for potential shifts in the political landscape surrounding the conflict. Further statements from Russian officials regarding conditions for peace negotiations will likely continue to be emphasized. The Russian government's response to international statements and proposals regarding peace negotiations will continue to be closely monitored. Discussions about potential European troop deployments in Ukraine are likely to continue, with the current assessment indicating limited capacity for a large-scale mission.
• Humanitarian Impact: Continued fighting and aerial attacks will likely result in further civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure. The detailed report on casualties and damage in Kharkiv and Dnipro highlights the ongoing humanitarian impact of drone attacks on urban centers. The reported death from shelling in Horlivka underscores the continued danger to civilians in frontline areas. Investigations by Ukrainian authorities into war crimes related to attacks on civilian areas and casualties are likely to continue. Civilian accounts and videos depicting the impact of attacks on residential areas and infrastructure are likely to continue to emerge.
• Internal Dynamics in Occupied Territories: The situation regarding officials in occupied territories seeking to return to civil service after military involvement could indicate internal political or social dynamics within these areas. Reports and analyses of internal dynamics within occupied territories, including the actions and motivations of local officials, are likely to continue.
• Military Capabilities and Losses: The reported cumulative Russian losses in personnel and equipment suggest ongoing attrition. The daily reported increases provide an indicator of the intensity of the fighting. Reports on estimated military losses by both sides will continue to be disseminated, although accuracy should be assessed with caution. The claimed North Korean casualties in Kursk Oblast, if verified, would be a significant indicator of the human cost of external support for Russia. Ukraine's need for fundraising for equipment replacement suggests ongoing equipment losses on their side.
• Anti-Discrimination Measures in Russia: The reported court decision prohibiting discriminatory hiring practices based on ethnicity could indicate a focus on addressing internal social issues, potentially as a response to demographic changes or to project a certain image of the Russian state. Further reports or discussions regarding anti-discrimination efforts within Russia may emerge.
• Internal Security and Social Issues in Russia: Reports on alleged pressure on activists and scam attempts in Telegram highlight ongoing internal security and social issues within Russia, which, while not directly tied to the front lines, are part of the broader operational environment. Reports on law enforcement activities and alleged suppression of dissent within Russia are likely to continue. Reports on cybercrime and efforts to inform the public about security threats, such as scam attempts in Telegram, will likely continue. Concerns about migration and associated social issues, as highlighted by Rybar, could lead to increased focus on internal security and social policies in Russia.

Potential Indicators

• Confirmation of missile launches and impacts from the Black Sea or Mediterranean.
• Reports of successful air defense engagements against "Shahed" drones in Sumy, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia, Chernihiv, and Cherkasy Oblasts, particularly along the reported flight paths. Reports of continued drone activity and air defense work in areas like Koziatyn and southern Chernihiv Oblast. Confirmation of a Shahed impact or interception near Myrhorod and Starokostiantyniv. Further reports from the Southern Ukraine Defense Forces and other Ukrainian commands on successful drone interceptions. Further reports on the effectiveness of electronic warfare in countering drones in specific areas.
• Observable changes in the intensity or direction of ground assaults on the Sumy, Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia fronts, as well as the Toretsk and Novopavlivsk directions. Independent verification or detailed reporting on claimed Russian advances in the LNR region towards Hrekivka. Independent verification or detailed reporting on Russian advances towards the borders of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast near Bogatyr. Changes in the number of reported combat engagements on the Novopavlivsk direction. Independent verification or detailed reporting on claimed Ukrainian force buildup and movement in the Sumy border region.
• Independent verification or detailed reporting on claimed Russian advances or Ukrainian counter-actions in the reported areas of intense ground combat, including around Sukha Balka, Kostiantynopil, Dachne, and Toretsk.
• Changes in the level of combat activity or territorial control in the Kursk and Belgorod border regions. Further reports of civilian casualties or damage from drone attacks in Bryansk Oblast. Independent verification of claimed Ukrainian use of HIMARS and Su-24 with guided missiles in the Kursk region.
• Further reports or investigations into the impact of drone attacks in Russian border regions and inland, including damage assessments and casualty reports, particularly at the Murom Instrument-Making Plant and in Rylsk. Further official statements or independent verification regarding the target and impact of the drone attack in Murom.
• Independent verification of claimed Russian interception of Ukrainian UAVs over Russian territory.
• Changes in the number or location of Russian naval vessels reported by the Ukrainian Naval Forces.
• Further propaganda or counter-narratives related to the Victory Day parade or other significant events. Increased dissemination of narratives related to Ukrainian mobilization efforts by Russian sources. Further statements from Russian officials and media framing Ukrainian statements as terrorism. Continued promotion of narratives about foreign powers hindering peace.
• Any observable changes in Russian logistical activity through the Kerch Strait. Reports on successful fundraising by Ukrainian units for equipment replacement. Reports on the delivery of drones from the UK to Ukraine.
• Independent verification of claimed Russian destruction of Ukrainian UAVs and temporary deployment points. Independent verification or further details regarding the claimed hit on an ammunition depot and temporary deployment point on the Donetsk direction by Russian FPV drones. Observable changes in Russian counter-drone tactics or technology based on claimed successes or failures.
• Reports on the condition of those injured in Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Prymorske, and assessments of damage to infrastructure in these areas. Detailed reports on the extent of damage and casualties in Kharkiv and other affected areas from recent drone attacks. Further reports or investigations by the Office of the Prosecutor General regarding war crimes and casualties in civilian areas. Continued sharing of civilian accounts and videos of the impact of attacks. Further reports on casualties in Horlivka.
• Further information or developments regarding the detention for alleged treason in South Ossetia and any potential connection to broader intelligence activities. Further reporting on alleged Ukrainian sabotage attempts within Russia. Further reports or investigations into the attempted poisoning case in Armavir and the explosion in Khanty-Mansiysk. Continued reports or investigations into alleged pressure on activists in Voronezh.
• Details on the extent and nature of the training provided to Belarusian special forces and any observable impact on their capabilities or deployment.
• Reactions or further statements from relevant actors, particularly the US and other international partners, in response to Donald Trump's recent statements on peace and Putin. Further statements from Russian officials regarding conditions for peace negotiations. Responses from the US or other international actors to Russia's stated conditions for ending the conflict. Further discussions or decisions regarding potential European troop deployments to Ukraine and their nature (training vs. combat).
• Updates on the "Ho chu ksvoim" project, including any changes in the number of listed collaborators or responses from Russia regarding potential exchanges.
• Any observable shifts in the political or social dynamics within occupied territories, potentially indicated by actions of local officials. Further information or developments regarding the case of Dmitriy Maydikov and its implications for officials in occupied territories.
• Independent verification of the reported North Korean casualties in Kursk Oblast. Further reports or statements from South Korean or other intelligence sources regarding North Korean military involvement. Any observable changes in North Korean military posture or official statements regarding their support for Russia.
• Further reports or court decisions related to anti-discrimination in hiring practices in Russia.
• Continued reports on internal law enforcement activities and social issues in Russia. Any observable changes in migration patterns or policies in Russia in response to concerns about social issues.