Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (April 29, 2025, 20:53 UTC)

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Updated Situation

Intense ground combat continues across multiple axes. Russia claims further localized gains on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk (Konstantinovka), Zaporizhzhia, and Sumi fronts, and new claims of advances on the Lyman direction towards Ridkodub, Kolodezi, and Zelyonaya Dolina. Russian sources claim to have consolidated positions on the outskirts of Stupochky on the Chasiv Yar direction, suggesting their proximity, and fighting is reported directly in Stupochky. Unconfirmed Russian claims of amphibious crossings on the Kherson direction persist. Ukraine reports inflicting significant losses and maintaining heavy fighting, repelling numerous assaults across various sectors. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 125 combat engagements since the start of the day, with Ukrainian defenders stopping one attack on the Kharkiv direction. On the Kupiansk direction, the enemy conducted nine assaults, stopping six with three ongoing. On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked 21 times with five ongoing engagements. On the Siversk direction, the enemy conducted three assaults. On the Kramatorsk direction, there are 13 combat engagements recorded. On the Toretsk direction, Russia attacked six times with one ongoing battle. On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian units attempted to break through defenses 51 times with nine ongoing engagements. All enemy attacks on the Novopavlivsk direction (12 attacks) were stopped. On the Prydniprovskyi direction, the enemy conducted one offensive action which was unsuccessful. On the Kursk direction, Ukrainian units repelled 15 attacks with six ongoing combat engagements. On the Huliaipole direction, the situation has not changed significantly. On the Volyn and Polissia directions, there are no signs of enemy offensive groups forming.

A major development remains the official confirmation and extensive reporting by North Korea and Russia regarding the deployment and participation of North Korean troops in "operations to liberate areas of Kursk Oblast" within the framework of a defense agreement, citing Article 4 of their treaty. This is explicitly linked by Russian sources to Ukraine's actions and is being promoted as a model of a true military alliance, with suggestions for inviting North Korean labor and drawing historical parallels. Russian sources are now further elevating the significance of this operation, suggesting it should be included in historical textbooks and standardized exams (ЕГЭ). Adding to this, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has reportedly called the participation of North Korean soldiers in fighting in Kursk Oblast a "sacred mission" and announced the construction of a monument in Pyongyang to honor the soldiers who fought in Russia. Russian military bloggers suggest North Korean military personnel may be deployed to other areas of the "special military operation" after the "liberation" of Kursk Oblast.

Ukraine continues combat operations in Belgorod Oblast, claiming control of a border strip and inflicting significant Russian losses. Reports of a Ukrainian drone attack on civilian workers in Grayvoron district with killed and wounded are unconfirmed by official sources. The Russian Ministry of Defense has released a video featuring a captured Ukrainian POW who claims their unit failed to break through defenses in Belgorod border area and was eliminated, with him being the sole survivor who surrendered.

Aerial bombardment persists with "Shahed" drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting multiple Ukrainian oblasts. Air raid alerts are active in several areas including Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Ukrainian Air Force reports a group of strike UAVs from Belgorod Oblast heading south into Sumy Oblast and north Kharkiv Oblast, and a new group of strike UAVs from the south heading towards Zaporizhzhia. New groups of "Shaheds" are reported heading towards Kharkiv from the north and west. Explosions are reported in Kharkiv. The Ukrainian General Staff reports today the enemy inflicted 70 air strikes, using 129 KABs, 1112 kamikaze drones, and conducted almost 4,500 shellings. On the Kursk direction, the enemy inflicted seven air strikes, using 18 guided bombs, and conducted 220 artillery shellings (including 2 MLRS). Ukrainian Air Force reports KAB on Kharkiv Oblast and KAB on Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast. ASTRA reports a Ukrainian drone damaged a Russian air defense radar station near Dmytrivka in the Soviet district of Crimea on April 28th.

Discussions regarding potential peace settlements continue. Russian statements about readiness for negotiations and Donald Trump's reported claims regarding Zelenskyy's readiness to abandon claims to Crimea and his view on the conflict's cause are circulating. Significantly, Donald Trump has now explicitly called on Putin to "stop shooting, sit down and sign a deal," stating he believes conditions for a deal exist. The UN has responded to Putin's unilateral ceasefire announcement, stating their position remains the same: they want to see the end of the war based on the UN Charter, international law, and relevant resolutions, without directly endorsing or rejecting the ceasefire. Ukraine is proposing a new economic mechanism for reparations. The US House of Representatives has reportedly received articles of impeachment against President Trump from Congressman Shri Thanedar, citing serious violations. Yermak states that Putin could stop the fire with one command but does not, hoping to deceive everyone, and says Russia must stop the fire and not block Trump's peace efforts, which Ukraine supports. Russian sources are disseminating opinions from Western media (UnHerd) suggesting Europe should accept Trump's peace deal and that victory is not an option for Ukraine. TASS reports that Patrushev claims the majority of Odesa residents have nothing in common with the Kyiv regime. RBC-Ukraine reports on the drone attack in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast resulting in a child's death and another rescued from rubble. TASS reports the US has stated that the US will cease its mediation efforts in the Ukrainian settlement in the absence of progress. Zelenskyy suggests Russia may be preparing something in Belarus this summer under the guise of exercises, potentially a new attack towards Ukraine, Lithuania, or Poland.

Domestic Russian news includes reports on a fatal ambulance accident in Belgorod, discussions among military bloggers, recruitment for internal affairs organs in occupied territories, a report from the Russian МВД on scam attempts in Telegram, and increased fines for children operating electric scooters. Reports circulating in Russian military blogger channels about a potential cyber threat targeting military users of the Alpine Quest offline map application via a fake "Pro-version" highlight ongoing cybersecurity concerns. Russian military bloggers are also highlighting the financial impact of "foreign agent" status on individuals like Ilya Varlamov, framing it as a successful state measure. Russian state media continues to publish historical documents from the FSB related to alleged collaboration during WWII in Donbas. Reports indicate an increase in direct flights between Tunisia and Russia. Basurin highlights the historical significance of Vasily Tatishchev on "Day in History," focusing on his contributions to Russian history, geography, and the founding of cities. Archangel Spetsnaz shares a video of a light installation in Volgograd for the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War. A preliminary model of the MS-21 aircraft with new Russian systems has completed its first flight, according to Rostec, as reported by TASS and ASTRA, showcasing efforts towards technological self-sufficiency in aviation. Fighterbomber shares videos of the MC-21 flight. Kotsnews reports on the imported-substituted MS-21's first flight, emphasizing the replacement of foreign systems and the use of PD-14 engines. The police in the Khabarovsk Territory report that 18 residents fell victim to scammers last week, with a total loss of over 5 million rubles and are investigating possible damage to structures at a city cemetery. Russian military bloggers are disseminating Russian Ministry of Defense claims that NATO is practicing scenarios for capturing Kaliningrad Oblast and blocking shipping in the Baltic and Black Seas during exercises near Russia's borders, a claim echoed by Patrushev. TASS reports that Fortum is not planning to return to Russia and will continue the process of selling assets when possible and is also pursuing arbitration against Russia regarding the transfer of its assets to external management. ASTRA reports that a 19-year-old student of the Baltic Naval Institute in Kaliningrad has been accused of rape, and a police investigation is underway. Russian military bloggers are highlighting the presence of NATO aircraft (AWACS, special mission aircraft) near Kaliningrad as evidence of NATO activity near Russia's borders. TASS reports that Putin stated it is necessary to repel those who try to justify Nazi crimes. TASS reports on the cost of river electric transport in Moscow with the "Summer tariff". Mash on Donbas shares a video of Vitaly Gura, head of Novokakhovsky district, before recording a video. Alex Parker Returns comments on the burning of a computer with "insides" of "Tolik" and an incident on the Pakistan border. TASS reports on plans to install new monuments to Soviet military sailors in Russia and Panama to mark the 80th anniversary of Victory. TASS reports the body of a deputy head of the Federal Penitentiary Service in the Krasnoyarsk Territory was found in a garage, with suspected suicide. ASTRA reports the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs has proposed new grounds for granting asylum, including facing "rusophobia" or inability to "observe traditional values." Colonelcassad reports on the alleged liquidation of a Ukrainian champion in Muay Thai. Russian sources are promoting a fundraising effort for quadcopters for an assault battalion of the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade for operations on the Southern Donetsk direction. The Office of the Prosecutor General in Ukraine is investigating two individuals for allegedly producing fake military documents for border crossing for $20,000, arresting them and seizing funds. News from Moscow indicates city services will continue working as usual during the May holidays. Astra reports on the removal of a children's playground in Novosibirsk under the control of a United Russia deputy, which was built by his election opponent, with residents calling it theft. TASS reports on the need for doctors in Russia, particularly ambulance doctors, pharmacists, and dietitians. The Police in the Khabarovsk Territory are conducting raids to prevent fires. Russian military bloggers are sharing content highlighting the daily life of soldiers. Medvedev characterized inviting "Bandera-Nazis" to Berlin for the 80th anniversary of Victory as "beyond cynicism." Medvedev stated that Russia's response to "peace through strength" should be "peace through fear." Medvedev claimed Trump acknowledged the US, Europe, and Kyiv are responsible for the conflict. Medvedev stated the "special operation" must end with Russia's victory and the destruction of the "Kyiv regime," and foreign mercenaries are legitimate targets. He also claims Washington and London planned an attack on the Red Army in 1945 and were preparing a third world war. China has called on Ukraine and Russia to clarify the roots of the "conflict" and supports steps towards a peaceful resolution and a balanced, long-term agreement, according to the Chinese Foreign Minister. Russian sources report that the Kremlin has rejected Ukraine's proposal for a one-month ceasefire instead of the initially proposed May 8-10 truce, with Peskov stating it's impossible without addressing "nuances" and accusing Ukraine of not striving for peace. RBC-Ukraine reports that the sister of Putin's negotiator Dmitriev secretly visited Ukraine in February 2025 using a US passport, citing an American journalist. Операция Z shares a video citing a Trump advisor calling Ukraine "one of the most corrupt countries in the world" and suggesting Zelenskyy could have signed a mineral deal instead of arguing with the US President. RBC-Ukraine reports that Donald Trump, in an interview, admits that certain actions by Putin can make him more favorable to Ukraine (but not necessarily Zelenskyy). He mentioned the possibility of intervening with "sanctions," "banking mechanisms," and "many other types of weapons," not necessarily "weapons with bullets." TASS reports that participants in the BRICS foreign ministers meeting in Brazil expressed a desire to see a speedy end to the conflict in Ukraine, and that Lavrov explained Russia's position. Trump, cited by Операция Z and Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, states that Ukraine will be "crushed very soon" because Russia is a "big military machine." Trump also reportedly called Amazon's actions in displaying the cost impact of his policies "hostile and political," leading to a drop in Amazon's stock. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Trump's special representative Kellogg is advocating for a 30-day comprehensive truce, stating they are close to this, while noting that Russia does not share this view. ASTRA reports that Montenegro will review all decisions on granting honorary citizenship, prompted by calls to revoke the citizenship of Russian propagandist Ekaterina Andreeva. RBC-Ukraine reports that Trump's special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, sharply responded to Putin's idea of a ceasefire on May 9th, calling it "absurd." Kellogg stated that President Trump wants a permanent comprehensive ceasefire on land, air, and sea, including infrastructure, for at least 30 days, with the possibility of extension. Alex Parker Returns cites Lavrov stating that Russia advocates for direct negotiations with Ukraine without preconditions, and that Putin's proposal for a Victory Day ceasefire is the start of these negotiations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS cites Lavrov stating Russia advocates for direct negotiations without preconditions and views Putin's ceasefire proposal as the beginning of this. Дневник Десантника summarizes Lavrov's statements, including Russia's readiness for direct negotiations, viewing the Victory Day ceasefire as part of this, and dismissing Ukrainian statements. He also notes Lavrov's statement that the US leadership understands the inadmissibility of a third world war. РБК-Україна reports on several news items, including the Kremlin rejecting Zelenskyy's 30-day ceasefire proposal, the UN Security Council meeting on Russian aggression, Trump's potential leanings towards Ukraine, the General Staff's decision to send TCC military personnel to the front and replace them with wounded soldiers, payments to veterans and fallen defenders' families, educational guarantees for contract servicemen aged 18-24, and Latvia supplying 1500 strike drones. Рыбарь reports on Lavrov's statements from the BRICS meeting, reiterating Russia's position on negotiations, the Victory Day ceasefire as part of it, and dismissing the possibility of honest monitoring of a lengthy truce. He also notes Lavrov's comments on Russia-US relations. Bloomberg, cited by Оперативний ЗСУ and Два майора, reports that negotiations to end the war are at an impasse, with potential progress unlikely without direct dialogue between Putin and Trump. Putin insists on Russia controlling the four Ukrainian regions it claims to have annexed as part of any peace deal. This demand is reportedly a setback for Trump's ceasefire efforts. TASS cites Lavrov claiming that Trump's proposed ceasefire has not affected the "aggressive actions of the Kyiv regime," citing hundreds of violations recorded by Russian representatives. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS cites Bloomberg reporting the impasse in peace negotiations, the necessity of a Putin-Trump meeting, and Putin's demand for control over the four Ukrainian regions. TASS reports the US has stated that the US will cease its mediation efforts in the Ukrainian settlement in the absence of progress. Alex Parker Returns quotes a statement that implies the US may step away from mediation if there is no progress. The US exit from mediation efforts is a new development in the diplomatic landscape.

A new group of strike UAVs from the south is reported heading to Kherson Oblast, with a course towards Kryvyi Rih. Another group of strike UAVs from the south is heading towards Zaporizhzhia, with five having passed near Zaporizhzhia and currently flying north towards Dnipro, and ten having passed near Zaporizhzhia and heading towards Dnipro. A total of 10 UAVs have flown past Zaporizhzhia and are heading towards Dnipro from the southwest. Explosions are reported in Kharkiv, with a total of around 10 explosions ("Geran" drones) reported. Russian military bloggers report over 15 explosions in Kharkiv. Air raid alerts are active in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. A drone dropped near a medical institution in Saltivskyi district of Kharkiv. Three people are reported injured in Saltivskyi district of Kharkiv. Four people are reported injured in Kharkiv as a result of drone attacks. The number of injured in Kharkiv has increased to six. Over 15 explosions and detonation are reported in Kharkiv, with a high number of ambulances and fire trucks. Attacks on Slobidskyi, Saltivskyi, and Shevchenkivskyi districts of Kharkiv are reported. A private house caught fire in Saltivskyi district due to a drone strike. Rescuers are heading to the strike locations in Kharkiv. Drone speed is noted as unusually high in Kharkiv. Air raid alert for drone threat is active in Kharkiv. New group of strike UAVs from the east is heading towards Kharkiv. Another four drones have flown past Chuhuiv towards Kharkiv.

Russia claims to have engaged 152 concentration areas of Ukrainian manpower and military hardware with operational-tactical aviation, strike drones, signal intelligence, and missile troops and artillery.

Russian sources are disseminating claims that a lost Ukrainian Su-27 was shot down by its own F-16 during a "Geran" raid, mistaking it for a UAV. Ukraine is reportedly transferring reserves to Sumy Oblast, including from the Zaporizhzhia direction, due to losses. Russian forces reportedly struck a military unit in Chornomorsk (formerly Illichivsk). Russian forces reportedly conducted 12 strikes on enemy objects in Peski-Radkovskie on the Kupiansk direction, causing fires in alleged enemy hiding places.

Russian sources are promoting propaganda narratives. They claim that countries affected by WWII and a number of European countries refused Zelenskyy's invitation to participate in an "anti-parade" in Kyiv on May 9th, citing Politico. They claim this initiative has failed and that European politicians will likely send ambassadors or foreign ministers to Lviv instead. They interpret this as a sign that the "coalition" is not ready to accept Kyiv's terms and participate in self-promotion for the "illegitimate" Ukrainian president, suggesting the May 9th event is doubtful and will not overshadow Moscow's celebrations. Russian military bloggers are disseminating a brief Russian-Korean dictionary for communication in Kursk Oblast, with phrases relevant to military actions. This is presented as a tool for interaction with North Korean forces and includes phrases like "Rocket danger" and military commands.

There are reports of increased activity around Dnipro, with multiple groups of Shahed drones heading towards the city. Air raid alerts are active in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast due to enemy Shaheds. Dnipro is under drone attack.

In Gorlivka, shelling with NATO reactive and tube artillery is reported, resulting in 16 casualties, including a seriously injured four-month-old infant. Damage to civilian infrastructure is reported, with shattered glass and concrete in the city center. Russian sources claim there were no military targets in the affected area and accuse Ukrainian artillery of targeting civilians.

Putin supported the request of Volgograd Oblast veterans to rename the Volgograd airport to "Stalingrad". Putin stated that the word of veterans and special operation participants is law for him.

Russian military bloggers ("Two Majors") report providing assistance to Russian paratroopers on the Zaporizhzhia front, including two UAZ-452 vans ("loafs"), motorcycles, tires, and other necessary items. They also report providing shotgun shells. They are conducting a fundraising effort for paratroopers of the 7th Guards Air Assault Division on the Zaporizhzhia front, seeking Mavic 3T, Mavic 3 Pro, and Mavic 3 Classic drones, drone detectors, radios, and magazines for 5.45 caliber weapons. As of this morning, they had raised 856,922 rubles out of a needed 4,916,000 rubles, with a total of 4,161,295 rubles collected so far, leaving 754,705 rubles remaining.

Russian forces are reported to have advanced near Grygorivka and Orikhovo-Vasylivka. Rybar reports that the situation in South Asia is escalating, with Pakistan and India transferring reinforcements to the border and the Indian Prime Prime Minister reportedly giving the green light for a counter-terrorism operation. Rybar also reiterates that the Russian ceasefire proposal was rejected by Ukraine and that official confirmation exists of North Korean military personnel participating in battles in Kursk Oblast.

Fighterbomber reports "all clear" (отбой).

Ukrainian defense industry enterprises, represented by the National Association of Ukrainian Defense Industries (NAUDI), are reporting significant material losses due to targeted Russian rocket and drone attacks on their production facilities. These enterprises, crucial suppliers of military equipment and ammunition, are seeking government assistance to restore their capabilities and ensure continued fulfillment of state defense orders.

The latest updates from Kharkiv indicate a significant increase in civilian casualties from the ongoing drone attacks. The number of injured has risen from 6 to 19. A 5-year-old girl also suffered an acute stress reaction.

The primary changes to the situation are:

• Increased Intensity and Reports of Drone Attacks Targeting Kharkiv and Dnipro: Continued and intensified drone attacks are reported in Kharkiv, with the number of injured significantly increasing. New groups of Shahed drones are targeting Dnipro from multiple directions. A new group is also reported heading to Kherson Oblast with a course towards Kryvyi Rih.
• Detailed Information on the Scale of Russian Strikes: Russia claims to have engaged 152 concentration areas of Ukrainian manpower and military hardware, providing a quantitative measure of their strike activity.
• Russian Claims of a Ukrainian Su-27 Shot Down by Friendly Fire: A new unconfirmed claim regarding an alleged friendly fire incident involving Ukrainian aircraft.
• Confirmation from the Ukrainian General Staff of Numerous Combat Engagements: The General Staff provides updated figures on combat engagements across multiple fronts, detailing Russian assault attempts on various axes.
• Reports of Shelling and Civilian Casualties in Gorlivka: Continued reports of shelling in Gorlivka resulting in civilian casualties, including an infant.
• Propaganda Narratives and Russian-Korean Phrasebook: Continued dissemination of propaganda regarding the failure of Zelenskyy's May 9th event and the distribution of a Russian-Korean military phrasebook.
• Fundraising Efforts by Russian Military Bloggers: Details on ongoing fundraising efforts for equipment for Russian paratroopers on the Zaporizhzhia front are provided.
• Russian Claims of Advances: Russian forces are reported to have advanced near Grygorivka and Orikhovo-Vasylivka.
• Reports of Escalating Tensions Between India and Pakistan: Rybar reports escalating tensions and troop transfers on the border.
• Putin Supporting Renaming Volgograd Airport to "Stalingrad": A domestic Russian political decision with historical symbolism.
• Ukrainian Defense Industry Reporting Targeted Attacks: Ukrainian defense enterprises are formally reporting significant material losses due to precise Russian attacks on their production facilities and seeking government assistance.
• Increased Civilian Casualties in Kharkiv: The number of injured civilians in Kharkiv due to drone attacks has significantly increased, including a child suffering an acute stress reaction.
• US Expresses Concern Over North Korean Military Involvement: The US Department of State has expressed concern regarding the participation of North Korean military personnel in the conflict in Ukraine.
• Increase in Reported Casualties in Kharkiv: The number of injured in Kharkiv has continued to rise according to official Ukrainian sources, with the latest figure reported as 20 people. Some injuries are described as serious.
• Reported Casualties in Dnipro: The Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast State Administration reports a massive UAV attack on Dnipro resulting in multiple fires, damage to private houses, and one fatality.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

• Pokrovsk Direction: Exceptionally intense ground combat continues with Russian forces attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses in multiple areas (51 reported assaults, 9 ongoing). Ukraine reports inflicting significant losses and maintaining heavy fighting.
• Lyman Direction: Significant Russian assaults reported by Ukraine (21 reported assaults, 5 ongoing), with Russian forces attacking near Lipove, Nove, Novomykhailivka, Myrnyi, Zelyonaya Dolina, and Yampolivka. Russian forces claim advances on the Lyman direction towards Ridkodub, Kolodyazi, and Zelyonaya Dolina.
• Kramatorsk Direction: Continued combat engagements reported by Ukraine (13 reported engagements).
• Toretsk Direction: Russian forces attacked positions six times with one ongoing battle. Russian forces claim consolidation of positions in the northern part of Shcherbinivka and advances towards Dyliivka.
• Novopavlivsk Direction: All 12 Russian attacks were successfully stopped by Ukrainian defenders.
• Kursk Oblast: Ongoing combat operations with Ukrainian units repelling 15 Russian assaults (6 ongoing). The enemy inflicted seven air strikes, using 18 guided bombs, and conducted 220 artillery shellings (including 2 MLRS). Official confirmation and extensive reporting by Russia and North Korea on the deployment and participation of North Korean troops in combat operations. Russian military bloggers suggest North Korean military personnel may be deployed to other areas of the "special military operation" after the "liberation" of Kursk Oblast. Dissemination of Russian-Korean military phrasebook. The US Department of State has expressed concern regarding the participation of North Korean military personnel in the conflict in Ukraine.
• Sumi Direction: Ongoing Russian offensive pressure. Ukrainian Air Force reports a group of strike UAVs from Belgorod Oblast heading south into Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian Air Force reports KAB on Sumy Oblast. Reports of Ukraine transferring reserves to Sumy Oblast.
• Belgorod Oblast (RU): Reports of a Ukrainian drone attack on civilian workers in Grayvoron district with killed and wounded are unconfirmed by official sources.
• Kharkiv Oblast: Ukrainian Air Force reports a group of strike UAVs from Belgorod Oblast heading north Kharkiv Oblast. New groups of "Shaheds" are reported heading towards Kharkiv from the north and west, and from the east and west. Explosions are reported in Kharkiv, with multiple impacts. Three, four, six, ten, nineteen, and now twenty people reported injured, including a 5-year-old girl with acute stress reaction. Attacks reported on Slobidskyi, Saltivskyi, and Shevchenkivskyi districts. A private house caught fire. Ukraine stopped one attack on the Kharkiv direction. Ukrainian Air Force reports KAB on Kharkiv Oblast. ASTRA reports a "Shahed" falling near a medical institution in Saltivskyi district. Unusual high speed of drones noted. A new group of strike UAVs is reported heading to Kharkiv from the west. The number of injured in Kharkiv has increased to 20, with some in serious condition.
• Kupiansk Direction: The enemy conducted nine assaults, stopping six with three ongoing. Dnevnik Desantnika reports 12 Russian strikes on enemy objects in Peski-Radkovskie, causing fires in alleged enemy hiding places.
• Siversk Direction: The enemy conducted three assaults. Ukrainian defenders stopped two offensive actions.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air raid alerts are active. Ukrainian Air Force reports a new group of strike UAVs from the south heading towards Zaporizhzhia. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a high volume of Russian strikes on civilian areas over the past day. Five and ten drones have flown past Zaporizhzhia and are heading north towards Dnipro. Fundraising efforts for paratroopers on the Zaporizhzhia front are ongoing.
• Chasiv Yar Direction: Russian sources claim consolidation of positions on the outskirts of Stupochky and successfully repelling Ukrainian counterattacks. Fighting is reported directly in Stupochky.
• Kherson Direction: Unconfirmed Russian claims of amphibious crossings persist. Russian airborne forces claim to have destroyed temporary deployment points on the right bank of the Dnieper. A new group of strike UAVs from the south is heading to Kherson Oblast, with a course towards Kryvyi Rih.
• Prydniprovskyi Direction: The enemy conducted one offensive action which was unsuccessful.
• Donetsk Oblast: Ukrainian Air Force reports KAB on Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad shares videos claiming Russian artillery strikes on Ukrainian temporary deployment points. Shelling and civilian casualties reported in Gorlivka.
• Crimea: ASTRA reports a Ukrainian drone damaged a Russian air defense radar station near Dmytrivka in the Soviet district on April 28th.
• Volgograd: Location of Putin and Lukashenko meeting. TASS reports the meeting lasted four hours. TASS reports Lukashenko has left Volgograd. Putin supported renaming the airport to "Stalingrad".
• Belarus: Zelenskyy suggests Russia may be preparing something in Belarus this summer under the guise of exercises, potentially a new attack towards Ukraine, Lithuania, or Poland.
• United States: TASS reports the US has stated that the US will cease its mediation efforts in the Ukrainian settlement in the absence of progress. This is a new development in the diplomatic landscape. The US Department of State has expressed concern regarding the participation of North Korean military personnel in the conflict in Ukraine.
• Russia (Balashikha): An explosion has been officially attributed to an explosive device and is being investigated as a murder, with several Russian military bloggers claiming the deceased was Major General Yaroslav Moskalik, Deputy Head of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff.
• Russia (Vladimir Oblast): A civilian transportation accident involving an overturned bus resulted in injuries.
• Iran: Two Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations aircraft were sent to assist in extinguishing a fire in a port.
• Kyrgyzstan: TASS reports that all individuals involved in the mercenary case, including a blogger and Russian House employee, have been released under house arrest.
• Syria: Saudi Arabia and Qatar have reportedly pledged to pay Syria's $15 million debt to the World Bank.
• Pakistan and India: Reports of alleged fighting between Indian and Pakistani armed forces along the international border near Pargwal-Ahnoor. Alex Parker Returns states the "Fourth Indo-Pakistani War has begun" with fighting along the entire border. Rybar reports escalating tensions and troop transfers.
• Ukraine (Pavlohrad): The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine is reportedly investigating the attack as a war crime.
• Ukraine (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): RBC-Ukraine reports on the drone attack resulting in a child's death and another rescued from rubble. The SBU has detained leadership of a defense plant for supplying over 120,000 unusable mortar rounds to the front. Multiple groups of Shahed drones heading towards Dnipro. Air raid alerts active. Dnipro is under drone attack. Explosions reported in Dnipro. Multiple groups of Shahed drones are reported approaching Dnipro from the southwest and west. Anti-drone work is reported. A massive UAV attack on Dnipro has resulted in multiple fires, damage to private houses, and one fatality.
• Ukraine (Lviv): The Office of the Prosecutor General is investigating an attempt to commit sabotage on a railway on behalf of a Russian representative.
• Ukraine (Mykhailivka district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Dnevnik Desantnika reports an enemy drone attacked a school bus injuring a 17-year-old boy.
• Ukraine (Kharkiv): Explosions reported due to drone attack. Mayor Terekhov reports attacks on Slobidskyi, Saltivskyi, and Shevchenkivskyi districts and a drone falling near a medical institution in Saltivskyi district. Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports more drones approaching Kharkiv from the southeast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a series of explosions. RBC-Ukraine reports explosions and the city is under drone attack. Three, four, six, ten, nineteen, and now twenty people reported injured. Private house on fire. High number of ambulances and fire trucks. Drone speed noted as unusually high. A new group of strike UAVs is reported heading to Kharkiv from the west. The number of injured in Kharkiv has increased to 20, with some in serious condition.
• South Ossetia: Colonelcassad reports a citizen was detained for treason for cooperating with Georgian security services and transmitting information about Russian military.
• Grygorivka and Orikhovo-Vasylivka: Russian forces reported to have advanced in these areas.
• Chornomorsk (formerly Illichivsk): Russian forces reportedly struck a military unit.
• Ukraine (Defense Industry Enterprises): Ukrainian defense industry enterprises, represented by NAUDI, are reporting significant material losses due to targeted Russian rocket and drone attacks and seeking government assistance.
• Finland: The President of Finland has reportedly warned the Kremlin regarding dealing with President Trump.

Potential Future Developments

• Continued high-intensity ground combat on current axes, with a focus on Russian attempts to achieve tactical breakthroughs, particularly on the Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, Krasnolimansky, and Siversk directions, and now in the Chasiv Yar area around Stupochky and on the Toretsk direction (including advances reported towards Shcherbinivka and north of Toretskaya mine, and advances reported towards Grigorievka and north of Verkhnekamenskoye) and near Grygorivka and Orikhovo-Vasylivka.
• Further Russian offensive efforts on the Sumy direction and potentially towards eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, as indicated by forced evacuations in the Synelnykivskyi district and ongoing aerial activity and perceived intent, and Ukrainian efforts to bolster river defenses. Continued Russian "rolling" attacks and attempts to push on the Kupiansk direction, including targeting of Ukrainian PVDs and potential drone production facilities.
• Increased Russian reliance on and effectiveness of new loitering munitions like the "Banderol."
• Continued combat and potential shifts in control in the Kursk border region, with the involvement of North Korean forces remaining a key factor, and potential deployment to other fronts. Russian expert claiming encountering Western mercenaries adds a new dimension. Russian regional governor visits indicate efforts to normalize and rebuild. Continued clearing of explosive objects and mapping of Ukrainian casualties in the Sudzha area by Russian forces. Continued provision of supplies to Russian units on the Kursk direction. Potential deployment of North Korean military personnel to other areas of the "special military operation". Continued use of Russian-Korean military phrasebook. Continued US and international reaction to the involvement of North Korean military personnel.
• Escalation or sustained activity in the Belgorod border region. Continued involvement of Russian UAV units on the border. Further reports and verification of the alleged Ukrainian drone attack on civilian workers in Grayvoron district with killed and wounded, including official confirmation and casualty figures. Continued Russian efforts to repel cross-border incursions as evidenced by the captured POW's claims.
• Further aerial attacks by both sides, with continued civilian impact and targeting of infrastructure. Potential threats to new areas like Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Lipetsk Oblasts. Continued movement of attack UAVs towards Odesa and now to Kherson Oblast with course towards Kryvyi Rih, and towards Dnipro. Ukrainian efforts to counter these attacks. Continued Russian air strikes using guided aerial bombs, including in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and now reported on Kharkiv, Sumy, and Donetsk Oblasts. Further Russian drone attacks on Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, and Kherson Oblasts. Note of unusually high drone speed in Kharkiv. Continued increase in civilian casualties in Kharkiv. Further reporting on the outcome of the massive UAV attack on Dnipro, including confirmation of casualties and extent of damage.
• Independent investigation and clarification of the corruption case in Ukraine's defense industry and its impact on military capabilities. SBU detention of defense plant leadership confirms this is ongoing. Further legal proceedings expected. Further details emerging from the SBU investigation into the supply of unusable mortar rounds, including potential impact on military capability and accountability.
• Further investigations and legal proceedings related to the corruption case in Ukraine's defense industry. SBU detentions reinforce this.
• The outcomes of ongoing rescue efforts in Gorlivka and further reporting on casualties. Increased reporting on casualties by multiple sources suggests this will remain a focus. Continued shelling and civilian casualties in Gorlivka.
• The success of fundraising efforts for Ukrainian units, including for river mines and equipment for snipers, and their impact on operational capabilities. Continued fundraising efforts by Russian military bloggers for equipment for Russian units.
• The potential impact of Trump's statements, including his representative's call for a truce and rejection of Putin's proposal, and Russia's reaction to these proposals. The reported impasse in negotiations according to Bloomberg and Putin's territorial demands highlight the challenges. Trump's differing rhetoric and advisors' statements could introduce unpredictability. Continued reports on potential Trump-Putin dialogue. Comments from Trump advisor Waltzing suggest potential pressure for a quick resolution. The US statement on ceasing mediation efforts in the absence of progress indicates a potential shift in the diplomatic landscape and could put pressure on the involved parties to find a path forward. The US stepping away from mediation could significantly alter the diplomatic landscape. Trump's joke about being Pope adds to the unpredictable rhetoric.
• Any observable impact of the reported Chinese business strategies to circumvent US tariffs.
• Further information disseminated by Russia regarding military personnel or internal affairs. Continued propaganda efforts by the Russian Ministry of Defense using captured POWs to disseminate narratives. Continued attempts by the US to signal intentions regarding potential peace settlements.
• Continued or intensified Russian propaganda efforts regarding the West and the conflict, including leveraging claims of destroyed NATO equipment and humanitarian impacts (Gorlivka casualties, alleged falsification of death certificates in Mariupol, graphic content on Ukrainian casualties in Kursk), and amplifying negative portrayals of Ukraine and its leadership. Utilization of events like the funeral of General Moskalik and statements by Trump's advisor for propaganda. Kotsnews poll results. Efforts to portray Ukraine as aggressive and targeting civilian infrastructure. Claims about NATO aggression. Sharing personal stories of military personnel. Continued use of propaganda leaflets by Russian forces. Continued reporting on the detention of Ukrainians in the US for illegal voting as a propaganda point. Linking historical military successes (Kursk Battle, Stalingrad) with current operations for propaganda purposes. Propaganda regarding the failure of Zelenskyy's May 9th "anti-parade". Dissemination of Russian-Korean military phrasebook for propaganda purposes. Further dissemination of reports and videos by Russian military bloggers regarding the participation of North Korean forces in Kursk Oblast, including potential cultural aspects.
• Any changes in the stance or actions of European nations based on recent events and diplomatic engagements, including the postponement of the Kyiv summit. Ukraine's efforts to unblock its path to the EU through negotiations with Hungary. Reports of European leaders declining Zelenskyy's May 9th invitation.
• Further legal actions and investigations related to alleged war crimes and internal security threats. Continued sentencing for terrorism-related charges in Russia. Continued reporting on the sentencing of Ukrainians in Russia for alleged offenses, including the attempt to poison cadets.
• Any observable changes in the tactics or frequency of railway sabotage attempts.
• Impact of the Ukrainian General Staff's decision to rotate TCC personnel on recruitment and combat effectiveness. Commentary from Russian sources suggests this will be a point of emphasis.
• Further information on the incident involving the Rosgvardiya orchestra in Moscow.
• The impact of Latvia's drone supplies on Ukrainian capabilities.
• Continued effectiveness of Ukrainian Naval Forces in targeting Russian logistics in the south. Ukrainian efforts to bolster river defenses.
• Continued effectiveness of Ukrainian artillery units and specialized units like snipers. Fundraising efforts for Ukrainian snipers indicate ongoing operational needs.
• Developments regarding regional energy security cooperation in the Three Seas Initiative format.
• Further war crimes prosecutions by Ukraine. Continued reporting on shelling and civilian casualties in Gorlivka could contribute to this.
• Continued social and political tensions in Moldova regarding Victory Day and symbols.
• Any observable impacts of reported military-style drills involving children in Russia/occupied territories. Reports of a parade with children on military equipment in Voronezh.
• Outcomes of psychological support efforts for returning Russian soldiers. Discussions among Russian military bloggers on PTSD suggest this is an ongoing issue.
• Further developments in the Coordination Headquarters' work on prisoner of war issues. Continued efforts to evacuate Ukrainian citizens from abroad. Successful evacuation of Ukrainian citizens from Syria by GUR and MFA.
• Continued Russian use of historical narratives for political purposes. Linking current operations to the Battle of Stalingrad.
• Continued reports of civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure in Horlivka.
• Further legal proceedings in Russia related to alleged acts of terrorism. Sentence for attempted poisoning at Russian flight school.
• Impact of the corruption case on the supply of ammunition and equipment to Ukrainian forces. SBU confirms detention of defense plant leadership. Further details emerging from the SBU investigation.
• Continued showcase of drone operations by both sides. Russian sources showcasing destroyed NATO equipment and claiming destruction of Western-supplied assets. Ukrainian forces showcasing destroyed Russian equipment and effective FPV drone use. Colonelcassad and Ukrainian sources sharing videos of destroyed equipment. Russian and Ukrainian military bloggers sharing content on drone operations. Colonelcassad shares video claiming air strike on Ukrainian PVD and UAV launch point in Orikhiv. Russian Ministry of Defense sharing videos of drone operators dropping leaflets. Note of unusually high drone speed in Kharkiv.
• Potential for increased Western scrutiny of Russian oil supply chains following the Bloomberg report.
• Potential for destabilization efforts in Central Asia and Russia's response, as highlighted by the Kyrgyzstan Security Council Secretary. Statement from Armenian PM. Continued reporting on the alleged fighting between Indian and Pakistani armed forces along the international border. Rybar reports escalating tensions between India and Pakistan.
• Further details on the damage to the Russian air defense radar station in Crimea and any impact on Russian air defense capabilities in the region. Reports of Neptune attacks in Crimea indicate ongoing Ukrainian efforts in this area.
• Any observable impact of the funeral of General Moskalik on Russian military or public sentiment.
• Continued amplification of negative narratives about Ukraine and its leadership by Russian sources. Colonelcassad sharing graphic content on Ukrainian casualties in Kursk. Russian military bloggers on Crimea Bridge and Ukrainian intent. Claims about NATO aggression. Sharing personal stories of military personnel. Continued reporting on the detention of Ukrainians in the US for illegal voting. Propaganda regarding the failure of Zelenskyy's May 9th event.
• Reports on the implementation and impact of the new tax on online sales in Ukraine.
• Further reports on the testing and potential deployment of US microwave anti-drone systems.
• Continued efforts by Russia to rebuild infrastructure and normalize life in areas under their control in Kursk Oblast. Russian regional governor visits and discusses reconstruction. Visit by the governor of Nizhny Novgorod Oblast to the "Kursk Battle" complex.
• Further reports on the police investigation in Lviv regarding the deaths of the teenagers.
• Any observable signs of Russian military activity in Belarus this summer, potentially under the guise of exercises.
• Ukrainian and international responses to Zelenskyy's concerns about potential Russian activity from Belarus.
• Further reports and investigation into the drone attack on a school bus in Mykhailivka district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• Further information or legal proceedings regarding the SBU detention of defense plant leadership and the supply of unusable mortar rounds.
• Continued reporting and investigation into the shelling and civilian casualties in Gorlivka.
• Any observable impact of the alleged friendly fire incident involving a Ukrainian Su-27 and F-16.
• Verification of Russian claims of striking a military unit in Chornomorsk.
• Verification of Russian claims of advances near Grygorivka and Orikhovo-Vasylivka.
• Any de-escalation or further escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan.
• Continued fundraising efforts and their impact on the capabilities of Russian paratrooper units.
• Specific details and requests from Ukrainian defense industry enterprises regarding required government assistance to restore production capabilities and address material losses from Russian strikes.
• Continued increases or changes in the number and location of civilian casualties in Kharkiv due to drone attacks.
• Official statements or reports from Ukrainian authorities detailing the impact of targeted Russian attacks on defense industry enterprises and the steps being taken to mitigate these effects.
• Further statements or actions from the US regarding their concern over North Korean military involvement in Ukraine.
• Further official reporting on the details and impact of the massive UAV attack on Dnipro, including confirmed casualty figures and the extent of damage to infrastructure.
• Any observable impact of the Finnish President's statement on the Kremlin or international relations.

Potential Indicators

• Independent reporting or satellite imagery confirming or contradicting claimed territorial changes on various axes, particularly Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, Sumy, Southern Donetsk, and in the Bryansk border region, and the contested areas in Belgorod.
• Further evidence or independent confirmation of the extent and effectiveness of North Korean personnel involvement in the Kursk region. Reports or visual evidence of North Korean forces in areas beyond Kursk Oblast.
• Observable shifts in Ukrainian offensive actions or troop concentrations in southern regions, aligning with reported reserve accumulation.
• Changes in the intensity, targeting, or trajectory of Russian tactical aviation sorties and KAB strikes.
• Public statements or actions from the US following Rubio's comments about assessing progress on a Ukraine settlement. Further statements or actions from the US government regarding their concern over North Korean military involvement.
• Observable changes in the rate or nature of Russian military desertions.
• Any observed impact on the battlefield from Russia's efforts to recover and repurpose captured Ukrainian equipment.
• Further information regarding the recruitment and deployment of Russia's "African Corps."
• Independent investigation and verification of the alleged killing and looting by Ukrainian servicemen in Plehovo, Kursk Oblast, and the alleged torture of Russian POWs by Ukrainian forces.
• Analysis of the composition and training levels of Ukrainian reserves reportedly accumulated in southern regions.
• The degree to which narratives about alleged war crimes and the involvement of external actors are amplified by either side in information operations.
• Observable battlefield implications of the potential integration of motorcycles into Russian offensive tactics.
• Further details regarding the new US-Ukraine agreement on subsoil resources and its financial implications for Ukraine's defense.
• Any observed impact on the battlefield from the increased number of reported Russian strikes on Ukrainian manpower and military hardware.
• Independent verification or refutation of the alleged Ukrainian Su-27 friendly fire incident.
• Observational evidence or official reports on the presence and actions of North Korean forces in areas beyond Kursk Oblast.
• Any observable changes in the scale and intensity of civilian casualties and damage in Gorlivka.
• Increased or decreased activity related to fundraising efforts for Russian paratroopers on the Zaporizhzhia front, and any observable impact on their equipment or operations.
• Further reports on the escalation or de-escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan, including any military actions.
• Public statements or actions related to the potential renaming of Volgograd airport to "Stalingrad".
• Official statements or actions by the Ukrainian government in response to reports from defense industry enterprises regarding targeted Russian attacks, including the allocation of resources for restoration.
• Any observable impact on the production or supply of military equipment and ammunition from Ukrainian defense industry enterprises following the reported targeted Russian attacks.
• Continued increases or changes in the number and location of civilian casualties in Kharkiv due to drone attacks.
• Official statements or reports from Ukrainian authorities detailing the impact of targeted Russian attacks on defense industry enterprises and the steps being taken to mitigate these effects.
• Official confirmation of the number of fatalities and injuries, and details of the damage, resulting from the massive UAV attack on Dnipro.
• Any observable reaction from the Kremlin or other Russian officials to the Finnish President's statement.