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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-29 18:25:24Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-29 17:54:24Z)

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (April 29, 2025, 18:23 UTC)


Updated Situation

High-intensity ground combat persists across multiple axes, with Russian forces claiming further gains on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk (Konstantinovka), Zaporizhzhia, and Sumi fronts, and new claims of advances on the Lyman direction towards Ridkodub, Kolodezi, and Zelyonaya Dolina. Russia also claims consolidation of positions on the outskirts of Stupochky on the Chasiv Yar direction, suggesting their proximity. Unconfirmed Russian claims of amphibious crossings on the Kherson direction persist. Russia claims to have liberated Doroshovka in the Kharkiv region and shot down a Ukrainian Su-27. Russian military bloggers confirm the liberation of Doroshovka and its significance on the Kupiansk direction. Ukraine reports inflicting significant losses and maintaining heavy fighting, repelling numerous assaults across various sectors. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 75 combat engagements since the start of the day, with Ukrainian defenders stopping 38 Russian attempts on the Pokrovsk direction, 10 on Lyman, 6 on Kramatorsk, 1 on Toretsk, 6 on Novopavlivsk, and 1 on Prydniprovskyi. They also report stopping attacks on the Kharkiv, Kupyansk, and Siversk directions, and repelling 6 attacks on the Kursk direction. Russian aviation strikes and shelling of border settlements in Sumy Oblast are also reported. Operational ZSU reports the 28th Brigade and adjacent units repelled a combined assault on the Toretsk direction. Slovochniy Kapriz reports active combat near Kurakhove, with Russian light motorized rifle units advancing over 1 km near Konstantinopol, reaching new positions near the Vovcha River. A video from the Presidential Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine showcases effective targeting of Russian personnel on the Toretsk direction using drones and mortar fire. A video from Arkhangel Spetsnaza demonstrates Russian FPV drone operations targeting ground vehicles. Colonelcassad shares maps claiming Russian advances near Novomykhailivka and Nove, as well as on the Siversk direction. Mash on Donbas reports five police officers were injured during a Ukrainian artillery strike on Horlivka. ASTRA reports 17 residents of occupied Horlivka were injured in the shelling, along with five "DPR" МВД employees. The injured include two children, one aged four months. Пушилин claimed the strike was from a HIMARS system. WarGonzo reports 16 wounded in Gorlivka, including a one-year-old child. Basurin o glavnom reports around 16 injured in Gorlovka, including a one-year-old child, with one person in very serious condition and the driver injured. Операция Z reports 16 wounded in Gorlovka, including a one-year-old child, with homes and transport damaged, including a bus. Дневник Десантника reports 17 injured in Gorlovka from HIMARS shelling, including a four-month-old child.

A major development remains the official confirmation and extensive reporting by North Korea and Russia regarding the deployment and participation of North Korean troops in "operations to liberate areas of Kursk Oblast" within the framework of a defense agreement, citing Article 4 of their treaty. This is explicitly linked by Russian sources to Ukraine's actions and is being promoted as a model of a true military alliance, with suggestions for inviting North Korean labor and drawing historical parallels. Russian sources are now further elevating the significance of this operation, suggesting it should be included in historical textbooks and standardized exams. Adding to this, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has reportedly called the participation of North Korean soldiers in fighting in Kursk Oblast a "sacred mission" and announced the construction of a monument in Pyongyang to honor the soldiers who fought in Russia. Ukraine continues combat operations in Kursk Oblast, with the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reporting 6 attacks repelled with one ongoing combat engagement, 4 airstrikes, 15 guided aerial bombs dropped, and 142 shellings (including 2 MLRS) over the past day. A Russian military expert claims Russian forces, in the course of liberating Gornal in Kursk Oblast, encountered mercenaries from Poland, the USA, and Turkey. Ukraine continues combat operations in Belgorod Oblast, claiming control of a border strip and inflicting significant Russian losses. Astra reports two people died and three were wounded as a result of a Ukrainian drone attack on a car on a road in Belgorod Oblast.

Aerial bombardment persists with "Shahed" drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting multiple Ukrainian oblasts. Air raid alerts were active in several areas including Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, but have now been lifted across all oblasts. The Kyiv mayor reports a woman was injured and a recreation base building was destroyed in a drone attack on the Desnianskyi district. The Kyiv City Military Administration reports 11 enemy UAVs were detected, with 9 destroyed and 2 locationally lost. No critical infrastructure was hit, but the fall of debris caused a fire at a recreation base with damage to buildings and vehicles, and three people sought medical attention on site. The Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration reports a massive Russian drone attack on the oblast, with air defense destroying 7 UAVs. However, the attack resulted in the death of a 12-year-old girl and injuries to a 6-year-old girl and two adults in Hubynyska community (Samarivskyi district). Damage to private houses and outbuildings was also reported. A UAV strike in Slovyanska community (Synelnykivskyi district) caused a fire at an agricultural enterprise. A KAB strike was reported in Velykomykhailivska community (Synelnikovskyi district) with consequences being clarified. Nikopol, Marhanetska, and Pokrovska communities on Nikopolshchyna were targeted by artillery and FPV drones, resulting in one injured 47-year-old woman, damage to infrastructure, houses, an outbuilding, and power lines. Olexandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled, with no shelling in Kryvyi Rih district, but attacks in Nikopol district (Nikopol, Marhanetska, Pokrovska communities) with artillery and FPV drones resulting in one injured woman and damage. RBC-Ukraine reports on the drone attack in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast resulting in a child's death and another rescued from rubble and shares photos from the aftermath. Rybar reports Russian forces conducted strikes on Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Dnipropetrovsk, with Ukraine reporting over 40 Russian UAVs. Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov reports that over the past day, 20 strike UAVs and 31 guided aerial bombs were used against civilians, resulting in injuries to two men. Specific incidents included a Shahed causing a warehouse fire in Kehychivka, a drone damaging a house and causing a fire in Kupiansk, KABs hitting the outskirts of Duvanka, a Shahed causing a fire in an disused building in Zarichne, a drone damaging a window in Vilshany, Uragan MLRS damaging garages and a house in Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi, KABs damaging houses in Kupiansk and Pisky-Radkivski (also causing a forest fire and damage to outbuildings/garages), a FAB-250 damaging a house in Kivsharivka, artillery damaging a garage in Kupiansk, an explosion injuring a man in Kupiansk, a drone dropping ordnance causing a grass and outbuilding fire in Verkhnii Saltiv (also hit by a Molniya drone), and a FAB-1500 injuring a man in Kupiansk (hospitalized) and a FAB-500 damaging a house in Kupiansk. Rocket danger is reported in Kharkiv Oblast. The Office of the Prosecutor General has initiated criminal proceedings regarding the drone and artillery attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming the death of the 12-year-old girl and injuries to four others, and damage to civilian infrastructure. The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast. Russian sources claim that T-72B3M tanks of the "Sever" Group of Forces destroyed Ukrainian strongholds and armored vehicles on the Kharkiv direction overnight, guided by UAVs with thermal imaging. WarGonzo reports Russian UAV calculations of the 41st Motorized Rifle Regiment destroyed three "Baba Yaga" hexacopters in the sky over Kharkiv Oblast. STERNENKO reports that in Nikopol, Russians attacked rescuers during the liquidation of a fire, with no casualties among personnel but damage to a fire truck. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports that energy infrastructure of communities in Zaporizhzhia Oblast are under constant enemy attacks, with over 22,000 subscribers recently left without power, which was restored in less than an hour. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of enemy tactical aviation activity and threat of aerial weapons on the southern and southeastern directions, and also on the eastern and northeastern directions. The Ukrainian Air Force also reports launches of guided aerial bombs on Kherson Oblast. A Ukrainian source claims a Ukrainian Su-27 was shot down by an F-16 during a Russian drone attack on Cherkasy due to human error, although this is presented as a possibility from media and a claim by a Ukrainian source, not an official confirmation. Ukrainian Air Force is reporting on enemy reconnaissance UAV activity on the west of Donetsk region. A Russian military blogger claims that the Su-27 was shot down by friendly fire from an F-16 due to confusion caused by Russian Geran drones, citing issues with the "friend or foe" system. The Air Force of Ukraine reports a guided aerial bomb towards Kherson and reconnaissance UAV activity in western Donetsk Oblast. RBC-Ukraine reports on Romania raising F-16 and Eurofighter jets during the Russian drone attack on Ukraine, with the possibility of a drone briefly crossing Romanian airspace. The Air Force of Ukraine reports a missile in southern Sumy Oblast heading southwest, later specifying it is heading towards Lebedyn. Russian military bloggers claim the destruction of a Ukrainian MaxxPro armored vehicle in the Krasnoarmeysk direction by a Nona-SVK self-propelled mortar crew of the "Tsentr" Group of Forces. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian T-72 tank near Vasyltsivka, Kharkiv Oblast, by fighters of the 16th Separate Special Purpose Brigade. The Office of the Prosecutor General is investigating drone and artillery attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Дневник Десантника reports that an enemy drone attacked a school bus in Mykhailivka district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, injuring a 17-year-old boy. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports that a 68-year-old woman was injured and private houses and an agricultural enterprise were damaged by Russian attacks in one community. A powerful explosion with secondary detonation is reported in Sloviansk near the railway station. Russian sources confirm a powerful explosion and secondary detonation in Sloviansk near the railway station, stating air raid alerts were not announced but local channels report a hit. Военкор Котенок reports that a powerful explosion with secondary detonation occurred near the railway station in Sloviansk, potentially hitting a warehouse or train carrying ammunition. The Ukrainian Air Force reports KABs targeting Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad shares an animated map detailing Russian strikes on Ukraine on April 28-29, including UMPK strikes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Geran drone strikes in Kharkiv Oblast. ASTRA reports a Ukrainian drone damaged a Russian air defense radar station near Dmytrivka in the Soviet district of Crimea on April 28th.

Discussions regarding potential peace settlements continue. Russian statements about readiness for negotiations and Donald Trump's reported claims regarding Zelenskyy's readiness to abandon claims to Crimea and his view on the conflict's cause are circulating. Significantly, Donald Trump has now explicitly called on Putin to "stop shooting, sit down and sign a deal," stating he believes conditions for a deal exist. The UN has responded to Putin's unilateral ceasefire announcement, stating their position remains the same: they want to see the end of the war based on the UN Charter, international law, and relevant resolutions, without directly endorsing or rejecting the ceasefire. Ukraine is proposing a new economic mechanism for reparations. The US House of Representatives has reportedly received articles of impeachment against President Trump from Congressman Shri Thanedar, citing serious violations. Yermak states that Putin could stop the fire with one command but does not, hoping to deceive everyone, and says Russia must stop the fire and not block Trump's peace efforts, which Ukraine supports. Russian sources are disseminating opinions from Western media (UnHerd) suggesting Europe should accept Trump's peace deal and that victory is not an option for Ukraine. TASS reports that Patrushev claims the majority of Odesa residents have nothing in common with the Kyiv regime. Ukrainian sources report that in the US Congress, impeachment of President Trump was initiated, with accusations on 7 articles. Kotsnews cites Military Watch Magazine (USA) on the North Korean factor and a new truce, mentioning the role of North Korean military equipment in Russian operations and the possibility of the US President hardening his stance towards Putin. It also cites The Telegraph (UK) on Putin's three-day ceasefire announcement and Trump's push for a peace deal. It cites Fakt (Poland) and General Waldemar Skrzypczak on Trump's threats of sanctions against Russia and the opinion that Putin does not listen to Trump and sees him as weak in imposing anything on Russia. WarGonzo cites Bloomberg on Trump hating the EU and the relationship between the US and Europe only worsening. Wargonzo cites "Abkhaz" (commander Akhra Avidzba) on the Russian side demonstrating humanity with the truce, mentioning exchanges of bodies and willingness for negotiations. Russian military bloggers are showcasing propaganda videos portraying Ukrainians abroad celebrating and being indifferent to the conflict, framing it in a negative light. Peskov stated that Putin is ready to start negotiations without preconditions, but there is no response from Ukraine. Peskov also noted that there is no understanding whether Kyiv will join the ceasefire for Victory Day, calling Ukraine's lack of a direct response a "manipulation." Peskov acknowledged difficulties with the legitimacy of the Kyiv regime but emphasized that the interests of peaceful settlement are paramount. Peskov did not clarify if North Korean military personnel would participate in the Victory Parade, but stated that Russian awards for distinguished North Korean soldiers fighting in Kursk are possible. Peskov reiterated the lack of a direct response from Kyiv on the ceasefire, calling it a "manipulation." Peskov also stated that Russia is ready for direct negotiations with Ukraine and that Zelenskyy's status is "not so important" in this matter, while acknowledging "legal difficulties" with his legitimacy but prioritizing peaceful settlement. Medvedev continues his strong rhetoric, claiming the relationship between Russia and Europe has passed the point of no return, calling European leaders "aggressive fanatics and militarists," stating Russia's response to "peace through strength" is "peace through fear," predicting a future holiday in Russia dedicated to the victory in the "special operation," and calling assertions that Russia would attack Europe "nonsense." He also reiterates the legitimacy of targeting foreign mercenaries and claims the "special operation" must end with Russia's victory and the destruction of the "Kyiv regime." He also claims Washington and London planned an attack on the Red Army in 1945 and were preparing a third world war. China has called on Ukraine and Russia to clarify the roots of the "conflict" and supports steps towards a peaceful resolution and a balanced, long-term agreement, according to the Chinese Foreign Minister. Russian sources report that the Kremlin has rejected Ukraine's proposal for a one-month ceasefire instead of the initially proposed May 8-10 truce, with Peskov stating it's impossible without addressing "nuances" and accusing Ukraine of not striving for peace. RBC-Ukraine reports that the sister of Putin's negotiator Dmitriev secretly visited Ukraine in February 2025 using a US passport, citing an American journalist. Операция Z shares a video citing a Trump advisor calling Ukraine "one of the most corrupt countries in the world" and suggesting Zelenskyy could have signed a mineral deal instead of arguing with the US President. RBC-Ukraine reports that Donald Trump, in an interview, admits that certain actions by Putin can make him more favorable to Ukraine (but not necessarily Zelenskyy). He mentioned the possibility of intervening with "sanctions," "banking mechanisms," and "many other types of weapons," not necessarily "weapons with bullets." TASS reports that participants in the BRICS foreign ministers meeting in Brazil expressed a desire to see a speedy end to the conflict in Ukraine, and that Lavrov explained Russia's position. Trump, cited by Операция Z and Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, states that Ukraine will be "crushed very soon" because Russia is a "big military machine." Trump also reportedly called Amazon's actions in displaying the cost impact of his policies "hostile and political," leading to a drop in Amazon's stock. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Trump's special representative Kellogg is advocating for a 30-day comprehensive truce, stating they are close to this, while noting that Russia does not share this view. ASTRA reports that Montenegro will review all decisions on granting honorary citizenship, prompted by calls to revoke the citizenship of Russian propagandist Ekaterina Andreeva. RBC-Ukraine reports that Trump's special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, sharply responded to Putin's idea of a ceasefire on May 9th, calling it "absurd." Kellogg stated that President Trump wants a permanent comprehensive ceasefire on land, air, and sea, including infrastructure, for at least 30 days, with the possibility of extension. Alex Parker Returns cites Lavrov stating that Russia advocates for direct negotiations with Ukraine without preconditions, and that Putin's proposal for a Victory Day ceasefire is the start of these negotiations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS cites Lavrov stating Russia advocates for direct negotiations without preconditions and views Putin's ceasefire proposal as the beginning of this. Дневник Десантника summarizes Lavrov's statements, including Russia's readiness for direct negotiations, viewing the Victory Day ceasefire as part of this, and dismissing Ukrainian statements. He also notes Lavrov's statement that the US leadership understands the inadmissibility of a third world war. РБК-Україна reports on several news items, including the Kremlin rejecting Zelenskyy's 30-day ceasefire proposal, the UN Security Council meeting on Russian aggression, Trump's potential leanings towards Ukraine, the General Staff's decision to send TCC military personnel to the front and replace them with wounded soldiers, payments to veterans and fallen defenders' families, educational guarantees for contract servicemen aged 18-24, and Latvia supplying 1500 strike drones. Рыбарь reports on Lavrov's statements from the BRICS meeting, reiterating Russia's position on negotiations, the Victory Day ceasefire as part of it, and dismissing the possibility of honest monitoring of a lengthy truce. He also notes Lavrov's comments on Russia-US relations. Bloomberg, cited by Оперативний ЗСУ and Два майора, reports that negotiations to end the war are at an impasse, with potential progress unlikely without direct dialogue between Putin and Trump. Putin insists on Russia controlling the four Ukrainian regions it claims to have annexed as part of any peace deal. This demand is reportedly a setback for Trump's ceasefire efforts. TASS cites Lavrov claiming that Trump's proposed ceasefire has not affected the "aggressive actions of the Kyiv regime," citing hundreds of violations recorded by Russian representatives. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS cites Bloomberg reporting the impasse in peace negotiations, the necessity of a Putin-Trump meeting, and Putin's demand for control over the four Ukrainian regions.

Domestic Russian news includes reports on a fatal ambulance accident in Belgorod, discussions among military bloggers, recruitment for internal affairs organs in occupied territories, a report from the Russian МВД on scam attempts in Telegram, and increased fines for children operating electric scooters. Reports circulating in Russian military blogger channels about a potential cyber threat targeting military users of the Alpine Quest offline map application via a fake "Pro-version" highlight ongoing cybersecurity concerns. Russian military bloggers are also highlighting the financial impact of "foreign agent" status on individuals like Ilya Varlamov, framing it as a successful state measure. Russian state media continues to publish historical documents from the FSB related to alleged collaboration during WWII in Donbas. Reports indicate an increase in direct flights between Tunisia and Russia. Basurin highlights the historical significance of Vasily Tatishchev on "Day in History," focusing on his contributions to Russian history, geography, and the founding of cities. Archangel Spetsnaz shares a video of a light installation in Volgograd for the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War. A preliminary model of the MS-21 aircraft with new Russian systems has completed its first flight, according to Rostec, as reported by TASS and ASTRA, showcasing efforts towards technological self-sufficiency in aviation. Fighterbomber shares videos of the MC-21 flight. Kotsnews reports on the imported-substituted MS-21's first flight, emphasizing the replacement of foreign systems and the use of PD-14 engines. The police in the Khabarovsk Territory report that 18 residents fell victim to scammers last week, with a total loss of over 5 million rubles and are investigating possible damage to structures at a city cemetery. Russian military bloggers are disseminating Russian Ministry of Defense claims that NATO is practicing scenarios for capturing Kaliningrad Oblast and blocking shipping in the Baltic and Black Seas during exercises near Russia's borders, a claim echoed by Patrushev. TASS reports that Fortum is not planning to return to Russia and will continue the process of selling assets when possible and is also pursuing arbitration against Russia regarding the transfer of its assets to external management. ASTRA reports that a 19-year-old student of the Baltic Naval Institute in Kaliningrad has been accused of rape, and a police investigation is underway. Russian military bloggers are highlighting the presence of NATO aircraft (AWACS, special mission aircraft) near Kaliningrad as evidence of NATO activity near Russia's borders. TASS reports that Putin stated it is necessary to repel those who try to justify Nazi crimes. TASS reports on the cost of river electric transport in Moscow with the "Summer tariff". Mash on Donbas shares a video of Vitaly Gura, head of Novokakhovsky district, before recording a video. Alex Parker Returns comments on the burning of a computer with "insides" of "Tolik" and an incident on the Pakistan border. TASS reports on plans to install new monuments to Soviet military sailors in Russia and Panama to mark the 80th anniversary of Victory. TASS reports the body of a deputy head of the Federal Penitentiary Service in the Krasnoyarsk Territory was found in a garage, with suspected suicide. ASTRA reports the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs has proposed new grounds for granting asylum, including facing "rusophobia" or inability to "observe traditional values." Colonelcassad reports on the alleged liquidation of a Ukrainian champion in Muay Thai. Russian sources are promoting a fundraising effort for quadcopters for an assault battalion of the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade for operations on the Southern Donetsk direction. The Office of the Prosecutor General in Ukraine is investigating two individuals for allegedly producing fake military documents for border crossing for $20,000, arresting them and seizing funds. News from Moscow indicates city services will continue working as usual during the May holidays. Astra reports on the removal of a children's playground in Novosibirsk under the control of a United Russia deputy, which was built by his election opponent, with residents calling it theft. TASS reports on the need for doctors in Russia, particularly ambulance doctors, pharmacists, and dietitians. The Police in the Khabarovsk Territory are conducting raids to prevent fires. Russian military bloggers are sharing content highlighting the daily life of soldiers. Medvedev characterized inviting "Bandera-Nazis" to Berlin for the 80th anniversary of Victory as "beyond cynicism." Medvedev stated that Russia's response to "peace through strength" should be "peace through fear." Medvedev claimed Trump acknowledged the US, Europe, and Kyiv are responsible for the conflict. Medvedev stated the "special operation" must end with Russia's victory and the destruction of the "Kyiv regime," and foreign mercenaries are legitimate targets. TASS reports on a potential crime investigation involving a deputy head in Krasnodar. News from Moscow confirms traffic restrictions today for Victory Parade preparations. TASS reports 18 Russian tourists were injured in a bus accident in Antalya, Turkey. News from Moscow reports on a new project to create software for humanoid robots. A new report from the Office of the Prosecutor General reports an attempt to commit sabotage on a railway in Lviv on behalf of a representative of the Russian Federation, with two individuals from Ternopil and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts suspected. A Russian military blogger reports that the enemy attempted an assault on the Sumy direction using pickup trucks, which were destroyed by marines from the 810th Guards Brigade. A video report from WarGonzo highlights the work of Russian sappers on the Krasnoarmeysk direction, emphasizing clearing paths, countering drones, and remote mining on liberated territories. TASS reports that 17 Russians injured in a bus accident in Antalya, Turkey, remain hospitalized. A Russian military blogger reports the official confirmation by the Russian MoD of the liberation of Doroshovka in Kharkiv Oblast. The Police of the Khabarovsk Territory share a video of a program with a singer, which is likely unrelated to the conflict. Russian sources report that the Kremlin has rejected Ukraine's proposal for a one-month ceasefire instead of the initially proposed May 8-10 truce, with Peskov stating it's impossible without addressing "nuances" and accusing Ukraine of not striving for peace. ASTRA reports that a transgender woman in Vologda accused of publicly calling for terrorist attacks, who is on a hunger strike. Colonelcassad shares an image with a potentially sarcastic caption related to the ongoing situation. The Office of the Prosecutor General confirms that a group of individuals is suspected of attempting to commit sabotage on a railway in Lviv on behalf of a Russian representative. Поддубный reports that the Russian army has taken control of Doroshovka in Kharkiv Oblast, that Ukrainian attempts to stabilize the situation failed, and that Russian forces now control a section of the P-79 highway, continuing to advance both south towards Kupiansk and northwest from Doroshovka. TASS reports that one of three Russian sailors wounded in Yemen has been hospitalized and requires surgery. Дневник Десантника reports that an enemy drone attacked a school bus in Mykhailivka district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, injuring a 17-year-old boy. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that fighters of the 63rd brigade destroyed 13 units of enemy equipment, including shooting down a Merlin reconnaissance drone for the third time and destroying vehicles, cannons, and mortars with drones. Rybar reports on the escalation in Jammu and Kashmir, including troop movements, air force exercises, and increased reconnaissance flights, noting that Pakistan has offered India a plan to prevent a new regional war. STERNENKO reports a missile threat in occupied Crimea, with reports of a Neptun attack. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА discusses the importance of showcasing the real work of Russian special forces in the media, highlighting the need to attract new specialists in areas like cyber intelligence and drone operations and to combat misinformation. RBC-Ukraine reports that the sister of Putin's negotiator Dmitriev secretly visited Ukraine in February 2025 using a US passport, citing an American journalist. Народная милиция ДНР shares a video claiming the destruction of Ukrainian equipment delivering food and ammunition by drone operators of the "Okhotnik" detachment. TASS reports that payment for travel on several Russian highways via "Госуслуги" has been temporarily suspended due to technical work. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports that a 68-year-old woman was injured and private houses and an agricultural enterprise were damaged by Russian attacks in one community. TASS reports that two Russian citizens received minor injuries during a US strike on the Yemeni port of Ras Isa. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА continues his discussion on the importance of media coverage for Russian special forces, mentioning that showing "cool work" is sometimes prohibited by leadership but is necessary for recruitment and public understanding. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War held a meeting with families of soldiers from the 1st Separate Feodosia Marine Battalion, discussing the search for missing persons, exchange negotiations, and adherence to humanitarian law. News from Moscow reports that combining barbecue with strong alcohol or beer is dangerous for health. Операция Z shares a video citing a Trump advisor calling Ukraine "one of the most corrupt countries in the world" and suggesting Zelenskyy could have signed a mineral deal instead of arguing with the US President. Oleh Syniehubov, Head of the Kharkiv Oblast State Administration, discusses the situation in the oblast, emphasizing the need for civilian evacuation from frontline communities, particularly Kupiansk, noting the opening of new businesses despite the risks, and highlighting support for families of fallen defenders. Russian sources are reporting on the growth of a cemetery in Kursk where deceased military personnel are buried, highlighting the human cost of the conflict. Russian military bloggers are discussing PTSD, specifically condemning behavior attributed to some "veterans" who engage in domestic violence or aggression towards civilians, arguing that this is not a result of PTSD but rather pre-existing issues, and that such individuals cast a negative light on all veterans. A Russian source is disseminating information regarding social benefits for war veterans and victims in Ukraine, framing the amounts as negligible and highlighting the large number of casualties, potentially as an information operation to demoralize Ukrainian forces and population. Russian sources are promoting the development of the Arctic shelf as a source of energy and a symbol of Russian sovereignty and future, linking it to the 25th anniversary of Putin's first inauguration, potentially as an information operation to bolster national pride and highlight strategic long-term goals. Putin and Lukashenko are in Volgograd for events related to the "Great Heritage - Common Future" forum and will visit Mamayev Kurgan to honor defenders of Stalingrad. Reports from Volgograd indicate disruptions to mobile internet and traffic closures due to the high-level visit, with students reportedly being used for crowd presence. Russia's Ministry of Finance has proposed tax benefits for participants of the "special military operation" and their families, as well as tax deductions for large families, and exemption from tourist tax for санаторно-курортное лечение. A Ukrainian source reports that the price of electricity for the population remains unchanged until October 31, 2025, but notes that intensive Russian shelling has destroyed or damaged approximately 10 GW of generating capacity. A Ukrainian source reports new details on two car accidents in Poland involving a bus on the Minsk-Wroclaw route and a truck driven by a Ukrainian citizen, resulting in injuries to 15 people. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports that a resident of Sumy has been sentenced to 15 years in prison for state treason, including collecting and transmitting information about Ukrainian troop movements and locations, and spreading pro-Russian narratives. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 is actively recruiting for UAV operators for the 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade, highlighting the use of modern technology and emphasizing contributing to victory. Operational ZSU reports on successful defense against a combined assault on the Toretsk direction by the Knights of the 28th Brigade and adjacent units. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports the signing of a memorandum for the relocation of wards from an internment facility in Zaporizhzhia Oblast to Ternopil Oblast for safety, indicating ongoing efforts to evacuate vulnerable populations from frontline areas. Басурин о главном reports on Putin and Lukashenko's visit to the Mamayev Kurgan memorial in Volgograd. RBC-Ukraine reports that the National Bank of Ukraine has significantly lowered the dollar exchange rate for the last day of April. Поддубный shares a video from the Russian Ministry of Defense claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian T-72 tank in Kharkiv Oblast by "West" Group of Forces drones, noting the alleged British efforts to resupply Ukraine with T-72s. WarGonzo shares a video showcasing the use of "Knyaz Vandal Novgorodsky" drones for destroying Ukrainian wheeled vehicles and highlighting daily checks of remote minefields by UAVs. Дневник Десантника shares an older video claiming the destruction of a group of wounded Ukrainian soldiers in a pipe in Demidivka by FPV drone operators of the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. Два майора reports the detention in St. Petersburg of an individual born in 2002 for posting support for the "Russian Volunteer Corps" and calling for the liquidation of the Russian leadership in social networks in March 2024. ASTRA reports that during Putin and Lukashenko's visit to Volgograd, students were reportedly brought out with flags for the motorcade, mobile communication was jammed, taxi prices surged, and one student was injured by a car after the motorcade passed. ASTRA shares photos of crowds with Russian flags during the Volgograd visit. Военкор Котенок reports a powerful explosion with secondary detonation near the railway station in Sloviansk, potentially hitting a warehouse or train carrying ammunition. Олександр Вілкул provides details on the modernization of heat supply systems in Kryvyi Rih, including the installation of modular boiler houses and cogeneration units, and the replacement of heat networks, highlighting challenges with personnel shortages but also opportunities for employment and military deferment. Новости Москвы reports that Aeroflot has added a function to correct errors in tickets online. Fighterbomber shares photos of a Yakovlev Yak-130 aircraft and calls the crew "heroes of the day," indicating its use and importance in current operations. WarGonzo shares an interview with a soldier from the "Somali" battalion on the Pokrovsk direction, discussing the relevance of boxing skills in combat. Rybar announces a new episode of their podcast discussing the nature of "hype" and Telegram channels. Colonelcassad comments on the North Korean troop involvement in Kursk, acknowledging prior knowledge and highlighting their physical and shooting training, their effectiveness against drones, and their adaptation to combat tactics, praising them as heroes and emphasizing the combat experience gained. Дневник Десантника states he will post summaries later due to being busy with tasks. Два майора shares a video from the 810th Guards Marine Brigade on the Sumy direction, showcasing captured trophies and commenting on the perceived weakness of modern NATO grenade launchers in combat, linking the Western weaponry to alleged Ukrainian plans in Kursk. RBC-Ukraine reports that Hungary has voted to withdraw from the International Criminal Court, with the Foreign Minister citing a loss of impartiality and authority. Trump's recent statements about Ukraine being "crushed very soon" are being amplified by Russian sources. Ukraine is introducing criminal responsibility for the deportation of children, aiming for prosecution of those involved in illegal movement, deportation, delayed repatriation, and using children for military purposes. Reports indicate American M109 Paladin self-propelled artillery systems have been observed in service with four additional Ukrainian brigades and one regiment, suggesting increased Western artillery deliveries, though some may be internal transfers with brigades receiving domestic Bohdana systems. Poddugny and Kotsnews are highlighting the decision to send TCC employees without combat experience to the front, framing it negatively. ASTRA reports an incident in Moscow involving a shooting between members of a Rosgvardiya orchestra, resulting in one injury. Poddugny reports Latvia has supplied Ukraine with 1,500 strike drone systems and is working on providing another 12,000. Ukrainian Naval Forces reportedly destroyed a small vessel used for logistics by Russian forces near the Kinburn Spit. Ukrainian 45th Separate Artillery Brigade is reportedly targeting Russian infantry. President Zelenskyy discusses Ukraine's experience in protecting and restoring energy supply, proposing greater security cooperation in the Three Seas Initiative format, focusing on energy infrastructure protection, backup power, and improved transport links, and linking these to the need for lasting peace. The Office of the Prosecutor General in Ukraine reports the conviction of two Russian servicemen to 12 years imprisonment in absentia for cruel treatment of civilians and rape of a pregnant woman in the Kyiv region in March 2022, resulting in the loss of the pregnancy. Rybar reports on the ongoing ban and associated fines for wearing St. George ribbons in Moldova, noting the contrasting approaches to celebrating Victory Day and Europe Day and the societal split. STERNENKO shares images depicting children participating in what appears to be military-style drills or safety exercises in Russia or occupied territories. WarGonzo shares a memo from a psychologist for families of returning SVO participants, offering advice on communication and reintegration. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War held a meeting with families of Ukrainian defenders, discussing the negotiation process, information gathering, and adherence to international humanitarian law. The Russian Ministry of Defense is promoting the "Great Heritage, Common Future" forum in Volgograd with Putin and Lukashenko, emphasizing shared history and victory in WWII. Mash on Donbas shares a video reporting on a destroyed residential building in Horlivka allegedly from a Ukrainian strike, with reported casualties, and notes that people may be under the rubble. TASS reports a sentence of 27 years imprisonment for an individual accused of attempting to poison cadets at a Russian flight school. The Office of the Prosecutor General in Ukraine reports identifying two officials from a defense plant and two accomplices suspected of supplying over 120,000 unusable mortar rounds to the front, causing significant damage to combat capability. The Russian Ministry of Defense shares videos claiming successful drone strikes against Ukrainian fortifications and UAV operators on the Krasnoarmeysk and South Donetsk directions. BUTUSOV PLUS shares a video claiming Ukrainian drones are effectively targeting Russian positions and equipment, including an electronic warfare system and a UAV launch point. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced that TCC employees who have not participated in hostilities and have no health restrictions will be sent to the front, and their positions will be filled by wounded soldiers. Fighterbomber comments on the decision to send TCC employees to the front, viewing it as a negative development for Ukraine's mobilization. RBC-Ukraine reports on the forced evacuation of seven villages in the Synelnykivskyi district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast due to the Russian offensive, citing the Head of the Dnipropetrovsk OVA. Воин DV shares a video claiming Russian FPV drone operators of the 5th Separate Guards Tank Brigade destroyed a Ukrainian pickup truck carrying infantry near Veseloye, north of Stepova Novoselivka, after it hit a mine during a counterattack attempt. DeepState reports on Ukrainian forces of the 43rd Separate Mechanized Brigade repelling a Russian assault north of Stepova Novoselivka, liquidating approximately 40 Russian personnel, destroying 4 BMPs, and 3 light vehicles (motorcycle, buggy, LAT). Военкор Котенок reports on Russian advances on the Krasnolimansky direction, claiming units of the "West" Group of Forces have expanded the Ivanovsky-Makeevsky bridgehead, occupying the southwestern part of Nove and the main part of Lipove. He also reports advances northeast of Novomykhailivka and fighting near Redkodub, Zelyonaya Dolina, and Kolodezi. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of the Head of the SBU's Center of Special Operations "A", Yevheniy Khmara, discussing the SBU's effective use of FPV drones and their criteria of "destroying 100 orcs a day." Khmara stated that SBU special forces have accounted for about 10% of all Russian soldiers destroyed by Ukrainian Security and Defense Forces and have struck two enemy helicopters in the Kursk region and every eighth tank destroyed by Ukraine. He also detailed a long-range operation targeting a Russian ammunition depot near Toropets, destroying 160,000 tons of ammunition.

New information indicates that Russia will develop relations with the US in a way that does not harm its partners, and that both Russia and the US have a mutual interest in constructive dialogue, according to Lavrov. This suggests a continued focus on diplomatic maneuvering while maintaining existing alliances. A political analyst is cited in Ukrainian media stating that Donald Trump is likely to either pressure Russia or withdraw from negotiations, indicating uncertainty and potential unpredictability in his approach. A message from a Finnish source reflects a negative view of the European Union, suggesting a potential sentiment of disillusionment in some European circles. A sentence of 27 years imprisonment has been handed down in Russia to an individual accused of attempting to poison cadets at a military flight school, highlighting internal security concerns and severe legal repercussions for perceived threats. Russian military bloggers are sharing content showcasing the daily life of soldiers and featuring animals, which could be an effort to humanize soldiers and build morale. The Head of the Kryvyi Rih Defense Council reports updated General Staff data on Russian losses (1060 personnel, 8 tanks, 5 AFVs, 42 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 140 vehicles/fuel tanks, 114 UAVs, 1 air defense system, and 3860 special equipment over the past day), reports ongoing FPV drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol and Myrivska community with 4 injuries and damage to a communal enterprise, private house, and a fire truck, and reports a UAV strike on Novopavlivska community damaging a house and outbuilding. He also provides updated information on a KAB strike on Velykomykhailivska community resulting in 1 injured woman and damage to houses, cars, and power lines. He highlights ongoing modernization of heat supply systems in Kryvyi Rih, including installation of modular boiler houses, cogeneration units, and replacement of heat networks, noting the importance after water issues and hydroblows, and planned work for 2025 to improve central heating for a large number of consumers and social facilities. He also discusses the city's social support program, providing over 850 million UAH in aid this year, including 50 types of financial assistance and food kits, with multiple waves of distribution planned and over 66 thousand families receiving help. He also mentions the success of local athletes in a European hand-to-hand combat competition. He concludes with a message of calm, resilience, and belief in victory. A news report from Moscow mentions a period of windy weather and fluctuating temperatures. Lavrov stated that Russia is ready for direct negotiations with Ukraine without preconditions, and that the call for a 30-day ceasefire is viewed as a condition. He also stated that Russia does not see possibilities for honest monitoring of the proposed 30-day ceasefire and called Ukrainian statements not worth reading. A Russian military blogger shares a post and video about the detention in St. Petersburg of an individual born in 2002 for posting support for the "Russian Volunteer Corps" and calling for the liquidation of the Russian leadership on social networks in March 2024. Colonelcassad shares posts related to the casualties from the Gorlivka shelling, stating at least 16 people were injured, including a one-year-old child. A Russian military blogger quotes the Secretary of the Security Council of Kyrgyzstan stating that the situation in Central Asia could be destabilized to distract Russia from the special military operation in Ukraine, potentially creating a new hotbed. A map and text are shared detailing active combat near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk direction), with a Russian infantry unit attacking north of Vydrozhennya, occupying a forward position under Ukrainian fire, and advancing over 1 km along the railway embankment towards Krasnoarmeysk. Reports of fighting north of Stepova Novoselivka, including a Russian assault repelled by Ukrainian forces with significant Russian losses of personnel and equipment, confirm ongoing localized engagements on the Kupiansk direction. Russian sources reporting advances and occupation of areas in Nove and Lipove on the Krasnolimansky direction indicate continued Russian offensive pressure in this sector. The Head of the SBU's Center of Special Operations "A" highlighting the SBU's significant contribution to Russian personnel and equipment losses through drone warfare and long-range operations provides insight into Ukrainian special forces capabilities and impact.

The core operational picture remains one of sustained, high-intensity conflict on multiple fronts, with significant use of drones and aerial bombardment by both sides, resulting in civilian casualties and now impacting areas closer to the administrative borders of oblasts previously less affected. The North Korean military involvement, officially confirmed and extensively promoted by both Russia and North Korea as a significant allied contribution and a model for future cooperation, and ongoing diplomatic maneuvering, remain key strategic factors. Continued Russian efforts on the Sumy direction and now demonstrably towards eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are evident, as are ongoing Ukrainian counter-intelligence and defense measures against aerial threats. The large-scale Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia continue. The rhetoric from both sides remains firm, with no clear path to a negotiated settlement evident despite ongoing discussions, further evidenced by Peskov's stance on ceasefire nuances and Medvedev's strong rhetoric, and now Trump's varying statements, including his representative advocating for a 30-day truce. Ukraine is actively pursuing diplomatic channels to highlight Russian aggression and secure international support, including through the upcoming UN Security Council meeting and discussions with the US on rare earth metals. Russia's reported plans to exploit mineral resources in occupied territories further indicate a long-term strategic objective of control. Domestic issues in both countries and international diplomatic events continue to unfold alongside the military conflict. The reported liberation of Doroshovka by Russian forces on the Kupiansk direction, if confirmed, represents a localized Russian tactical gain and a potential expansion of their bridgehead in the area. The alleged downing of a Ukrainian Su-27 by Russian forces, if verified, would be a significant loss for the Ukrainian Air Force and an indicator of Russian aerial effectiveness. Ukraine's focus on recruiting for technological roles within the military and for UAV operators indicates a strategic emphasis on developing and deploying advanced defense solutions. The reported incident involving a Russian servicemember accused of a violent crime while on leave, and who was previously accused of war crimes by Ukraine, raises concerns about potential behavioral issues among some returning personnel and potential legal and ethical implications. The Wall Street Journal report suggesting Russia plans to accelerate its offensive with favorable weather conditions and foliage cover, coupled with anticipated shortages of Western artillery for Ukraine, highlights potential future operational challenges and strategic considerations for both sides. The reported attempt at railway sabotage in Lviv, if confirmed as directed by Russia, indicates continued efforts to disrupt Ukrainian logistics and infrastructure, even in western regions. The reported injury of a civilian in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and the attack on a school bus are concerning examples of the humanitarian impact of the conflict. The destruction of Ukrainian equipment by the 63rd brigade and Russian drone operators highlights the ongoing attrition and effectiveness of drone warfare. The meeting of the Coordination Headquarters with families of marines underscores the ongoing efforts to address the human cost of the conflict and the issue of prisoners of war and missing personnel. A powerful explosion with secondary detonation in Sloviansk near the railway station indicates a successful strike on a significant target, likely a military or logistical asset given the location. The increased size of the cemetery in Kursk is a somber indicator of the human cost of the conflict for Russia. Discussions among Russian military bloggers about PTSD and the behavior of some veterans reflect internal social issues and challenges within Russia related to the conflict. The Russian Ministry of Finance proposing tax benefits for "special military operation" participants and their families indicates government efforts to provide social and economic support for those involved in the conflict. Ukraine's continued ability to maintain stable electricity prices despite significant damage to generating capacity highlights resilience in the energy sector, although the noted destruction points to a vulnerability that Russia is exploiting. The sentencing of a Ukrainian citizen in Sumy for state treason, including providing information on troop movements and spreading pro-Russian narratives, highlights internal counter-intelligence efforts and the ongoing information war. The relocation of vulnerable populations from frontline areas in Zaporizhzhia Oblast underscores the humanitarian impact of the conflict and the need for evacuation and support. The lowering of the dollar exchange rate by the National Bank of Ukraine indicates economic activity and potentially a degree of stability in the financial sector. The claimed destruction of a Ukrainian T-72 tank by Russian drones highlights the continued effectiveness of UAVs against armored vehicles and the ongoing attrition of Ukrainian equipment. The showcasing of Russian drones destroying Ukrainian wheeled vehicles and remote minefields by UAVs further emphasizes the widespread and impactful use of drones by Russian forces. The detention of an individual in St. Petersburg for supporting the "Russian Volunteer Corps" indicates internal security measures against groups perceived as a threat by Russia. Reports of disruptions and an injury during the high-level visit in Volgograd highlight the impact of security measures on civilian life and potentially raise questions about organization and safety during such events. The modernization efforts in Kryvyi Rih's heat supply system demonstrate ongoing efforts to maintain and improve civilian infrastructure despite the conflict, while also highlighting challenges with personnel shortages and the potential for employment and military deferment incentives. The reported Hungarian vote to withdraw from the International Criminal Court is a significant international development with implications for international justice and accountability. Trump's recent statements expressing a belief that Ukraine will be "crushed very soon" add a new dimension to the diplomatic landscape and signal a potentially pessimistic view from a prominent international figure. Russia is promoting discussions about historical memory and events of World War II, potentially as part of its information operations related to the current conflict. Russian sources claim a precision strike by Russian forces on a warehouse in Sloviansk, resulting in a fire and secondary detonation, further highlighting ongoing strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and potential military/logistical targets. Russian sources are commenting on alleged corruption and audits of US aid to Ukraine, likely as part of their information operations to undermine Western support. The creation of a new Ukrainian tank battalion indicates ongoing efforts to maintain and build up armored capabilities. Footage of Ukrainian forces destroying a Russian golf cart with a drone on the Siversk direction indicates ongoing localized engagements and the use of drones against unconventional military transport. Ukrainian sources are leveraging the confirmed death of Russian General Moskalik, highlighting his alleged role in providing fabricated reports to Russian leadership as part of their information operations. Russian military bloggers are disseminating negative portrayals of deceased Ukrainian soldiers. Discussion continues regarding the details of the treatment and death of journalist Viktoriia Roshchyna in Russian captivity, highlighting concerns about the treatment of prisoners. Statements from US Vice President Vance questioning Ukraine's ability to win and raising the possibility of nuclear conflict are being amplified by Russian sources, contributing to the narrative of potential Ukrainian defeat and the risks of escalation. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is implementing measures to rotate experienced personnel into Territorial Recruitment Centers and deploy TCC staff without combat experience to combat zones, indicating ongoing efforts to improve recruitment efficiency and personnel utilization. Reports of European leaders declining to attend a summit in Kyiv on May 9th, opting for other security-related engagements, suggest security concerns and prioritization of alternative strategic events are influencing diplomatic schedules. Russian sources are highlighting claimed destruction of Ukrainian equipment by Russian special forces on the Southern Donetsk direction, showcasing their capabilities. A fire at a school in occupied Mariupol is reported, highlighting the continued impact of the conflict on civilian infrastructure in occupied territories. Russian sources are disseminating graphic videos purporting to show the abandonment of deceased Ukrainian soldiers, likely as a psychological operation to demoralize Ukrainian forces and the population. Russian sources are claiming Russian advances on the Southern Donetsk direction. Russian sources are promoting the use of mortars by Russian special forces. Reports of a schoolchild in Kazan being sentenced for anti-war graffiti highlight Russian internal repression against dissent related to the conflict. Russian military bloggers are commenting on German political dynamics and the stance of a potential new German Chancellor towards Russia and Ukraine, indicating a focus on the political landscape of key international partners. Statements from a Russian military blogger characterizing the move to send TCC staff to the front as an indicator of potential corruption in evading conscription are being disseminated. Reports of the Security Service of Ukraine detaining a Russian agent attempting to set fire to a Territorial Recruitment Center in Chernihiv indicate ongoing Russian efforts to disrupt Ukrainian mobilization and infrastructure and Ukrainian counter-intelligence efforts. Statements from a Russian military expert characterize Putin's ceasefire announcement as an attempt to appeal to Ukrainians who value Victory Day, while accusing Ukrainian authorities of not adhering to past ceasefires. The Ukrainian Air Force is reporting ongoing KAB strikes on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. Ukraine is formally introducing criminal responsibility for the deportation of children, a move aimed at prosecuting those involved. American M109 Paladin self-propelled howitzers are being observed with additional Ukrainian units, suggesting increased Western artillery supplies. The decision by the Ukrainian General Staff to send TCC employees without combat experience to the front and replace them with wounded personnel is generating discussion and commentary, particularly from Russian sources framing it negatively. An incident involving a shooting within a Russian National Guard orchestra in Moscow highlights internal issues in Russia. Latvia is actively contributing to Ukraine's drone capabilities with significant deliveries. Ukrainian Naval Forces continue to target Russian logistical assets in the southern areas. Ukrainian units are effectively targeting Russian infantry and equipment with artillery. President Zelenskyy is highlighting Ukraine's expertise in energy security and advocating for broader regional cooperation in the Three Seas Initiative framework. Ukraine's Office of the Prosecutor General is pursuing war crimes cases, with a conviction reported for cruel treatment and rape in the Kyiv region. The ban on St. George ribbons in Moldova continues to be a point of contention and social division. Reports of children participating in military-style drills in Russia or occupied territories underscore the impact of the conflict on youth and potential militarization. Efforts are being made to provide psychological support to Russian soldiers and their families returning from the conflict zone. The Coordination Headquarters continues its work on prisoner of war issues and support for families. Russia is leveraging historical narratives and events, such as the forum in Volgograd with Putin and Lukashenko, for political and propaganda purposes. Continued reports of civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure in Horlivka highlight the ongoing humanitarian impact of the conflict. Legal proceedings and convictions are occurring in Russia related to alleged acts of terrorism linked to the conflict. A major case of suspected corruption and hindering military activity has been reported in Ukraine concerning the supply of unusable mortar rounds. The Russian Ministry of Defense and Ukrainian units are showcasing successful drone operations. Office of the Prosecutor General in Ukraine reports uncovering a significant corruption scheme involving officials from a defense plant and military representatives suspected of supplying over 120,000 unusable 120mm mortar rounds to the front, causing significant damage to combat capability. Mash on Donbas reports potential casualties under the rubble of a destroyed residential building in Gorlivka allegedly from a Ukrainian strike, with reported casualties, and notes that people may be under the rubble. An urgent fundraising campaign is underway for a Ukrainian brigade on the Kharkiv direction, highlighting operational needs and perceived increased Russian pressure. The SBU has confirmed the detention of the leadership of a defense plant and military representatives in connection with the supply of defective mortar rounds. Russian President Putin has ordered the development of unified standards of support for participants of the "special military operation" and their families across all regions of Russia. Russian state media reports increased oil supply from Russian ports despite sanctions, according to Bloomberg. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a 68-year-old woman was injured and private houses and an agricultural enterprise were damaged by Russian attacks in one community. TASS reports five police officers were injured in Gorlivka due to Ukrainian artillery shelling.

Major Changes in the Last Hour:

  • Russia Details Activity and Claims Advances on Kupiansk Direction: Дневник Десантника provides a detailed report on the Kupiansk direction. Russian forces claim continued "rolling" attacks on the northern flank near Topolya. After liberating Kamenka, they are reportedly using artillery and drones to target enemy positions towards Kolodeznoye and Dvurechansky. Russian aviation is actively working near Kupyansk, claiming to have destroyed a large enemy personnel and temporary deployment point (PVD) in the northern part of the city, including foreign mercenaries and drone production facilities. On the southern flank near Zagryzovo, Russian forces claim control up to the center of the village, with the enemy attacking and holding the southern part. No significant changes are reported on the right bank of the Oskol, attributed to the higher bank requiring additional resources. This report indicates continued Russian offensive pressure on the Kupiansk axis, with claims of specific tactical gains and targeting of Ukrainian assets and personnel.
  • Russia Claims Advances on Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk) Direction: Дневник Десантника reports on the "Dzerzhinsk direction." Russian fighters north of the Toretskaya mine claim to have expanded their control by 800m. The enemy is reportedly using drones against their advancing forces. Russian forces are also targeting an enemy shelter at the Berezka camp, where the enemy has equipped a PVD and drone launch points. They also claim "certain successes" in the Shcherbinivka area, advancing 1 km and cutting off the enemy grouping in the southern part of the village from the northern part by advancing from the area of the St. Matrona of Moscow mine. This indicates continued Russian offensive actions and claimed tactical gains on the Toretsk direction.
  • Ukrainian Woman and Children Evacuated from Syria: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими and ГУР МО report a complex evacuation mission by Ukraine's GUR and MFA rescued a Ukrainian woman and her two children from the Roj camp in Syria. The woman was reportedly the last Ukrainian citizen held in the camp for six years. This operation successfully returned all 14 women and 41 children who wished to be evacuated from the camp. This highlights Ukraine's efforts to rescue its citizens from difficult situations abroad and demonstrates the capabilities of its intelligence and diplomatic services in such operations, though it is not directly related to the ongoing conflict with Russia.
  • Russia Claims Negotiating with US Without Harming Partners: Alex Parker Returns cites Lavrov stating Russia will develop relations with the US in a way that does not harm its partners, and that both countries have a mutual interest in constructive dialogue. This suggests Russia is attempting to maintain its existing alliances while engaging in limited dialogue with the US.
  • Ukraine Considers New Tax on Online Sales: РБК-Україна reports the Ukrainian government has approved a draft law for a 10% tax on income from sales and services on online platforms like OLX, Rozetka, and Prom. This is a domestic economic development potentially aimed at increasing state revenue, not directly related to military operations but potentially impacting the economy supporting them.
  • Ukrainian 46th Airmobile Brigade Receives Honorary Designation: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України and Оперативний ЗСУ announce that the 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade has been granted the honorary designation "Podilska" by Presidential Decree. This recognition is likely aimed at boosting morale and highlighting the unit's service.
  • Russian Military Personnel Using Russian-Korean Phrasebook: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video and image showing Russian military personnel using a Russian-Korean phrasebook with military commands. This suggests interaction or potential joint operations with Korean-speaking forces (likely North Korean troops in Kursk) and reinforces the reports of North Korean involvement.
  • US Testing New Microwave Anti-Drone System: Два майора reports on the US company Epirus delivering the Expeditionary Directed Energy Counter-Swarm (ExDECS) microwave anti-drone system to the US Marine Corps for testing. This highlights ongoing development of advanced counter-drone technology by a key international partner.
  • Russian Regional Governor Visits Kursk and Discusses Reconstruction: Глеб Никитин, the governor of Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, reports visiting Kursk Oblast with Alexander Khinshtein to discuss infrastructure restoration, industry, and economy, and preparation for Kursk's 1000th anniversary. This indicates Russian efforts to normalize and rebuild in areas under their claimed control in Kursk Oblast.
  • Mariupol Resident Claims Attempts to Falsify Son's Death Certificate: ASTRA shares a video of a Mariupol resident claiming Russian authorities attempted to list her son's cause of death as a heart attack despite him being killed by shelling. This highlights potential efforts to manipulate casualty data and concerns about transparency regarding the human cost of the conflict in occupied territories.
  • Ukrainian FPV Drone Operators Active on Toretsk Direction: Оперативний ЗСУ and БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС share videos showcasing effective use of thermal FPV drones by the Azov 12th Brigade against Russian personnel and equipment on the Toretsk direction. This indicates continued intense fighting and successful Ukrainian tactical actions in this area. Два майора also comments on FPV drone work on the Konstantinovka direction.
  • Ukrainian General Staff on Defense Tech Era Event: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports on the Brave1 Defense Tech Era event in Kyiv, emphasizing the importance of optimizing the development and implementation of asymmetric solutions like drones and robotic complexes for the Ukrainian military. This highlights Ukraine's strategic focus on technological innovation to enhance military capabilities.
  • Ukrainian Forces Showcase Destroyed Russian Equipment: STERNENKO shares a video showing a batch of "demilitarized" Russian equipment, including a "tank-shed," self-propelled artillery, and vehicles. This serves to highlight Ukrainian successes in destroying Russian assets.
  • Russian Ministry of Defense Claims Destruction of Ukrainian Equipment on Kupiansk Direction: Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show Russian "West" Group of Forces destroying various Ukrainian equipment, including a British AS-90 self-propelled gun, a T-72 tank, a T-64 tank, an MT-12 anti-tank gun, a US M113 APC, pickups, a Baba Yaga drone, a robotic platform, and UAV launch points on the Kupiansk direction. This indicates ongoing intense fighting and significant equipment losses on this axis according to Russian claims, and highlights the presence of Western-supplied equipment in this area.
  • Ukrainian Forces Fundraising for River Mines: Сили оборони Півдня України are fundraising for 7000 anchored river mines to prevent Russian forces from crossing rivers in the south and east. This indicates concerns about potential Russian riverine operations and efforts by Ukrainian forces to bolster river defenses.
  • Lviv Police Investigating Deaths of Two Teenagers: РБК-Україна reports Lviv police are investigating the deaths of two teenagers who fell from the 16th floor, not excluding suicide. This is a domestic incident unrelated to military operations.
  • Trump Advisor Waltzing on Urgency of Peace Deal: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS cites Trump advisor Waltzing stating that Russia and Ukraine should hurry with a peace agreement before Trump loses patience, as reported in The National Interest. This adds another layer to the diplomatic discussions surrounding a potential peace settlement.
  • Kharkiv Oblast Governor on Mine Danger and Demining: Олег Синєгубов, Head of the Kharkiv Oblast State Administration, provides details on the significant mine danger in the oblast after liberation, the efforts of the Mine Action Coordination Center, the area cleared, and the number of explosive objects neutralized. He emphasizes the importance of demining for the safety of residents and the implementation of President Zelenskyy's "Safety" plan. This highlights the long-term impact of the conflict and the ongoing efforts to mitigate risks to the civilian population and infrastructure.
  • Russian Military Blogger Shares Propaganda Video: Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video from Russian military bloggers promoting a detailed instruction on how to become a "good Russian," framing it in a satirical and propagandistic manner. This is an example of the ongoing information warfare.
  • Sentence for Attempted Poisoning at Russian Flight School: ASTRA reports that a man has been sentenced to 27 years in prison in Russia for attempting to poison graduates of a flight school. This highlights internal security concerns and severe legal repercussions for perceived threats.
  • Colonelcassad Shares Graphic Content on Ukrainian Casualties in Kursk: Colonelcassad shares graphic photos allegedly of deceased Ukrainian soldiers in the Sudzha border area of Kursk Oblast, stating that "Northerners" (Russian forces) are clearing explosive objects and mapping the locations of enemy bodies. He claims most bodies can only be identified by DNA or distinctive features, and that most soldiers did not have documents or phones. This is likely part of a psychological operation to demoralize Ukrainian forces and the population and highlight claimed Russian successes in the area.
  • Russian Military Bloggers on Crimea Bridge and Ukrainian Intent: Два майора shares a video and commentary expressing frustration that the Crimea Bridge is seen as a real target by Ukraine and that Ukrainian channels are demonstrating a readiness to continue the war and destroy strategic civilian objects, claiming military cargo does not use the bridge. This is part of the Russian information operation to portray Ukraine as aggressive and targeting civilian infrastructure.
  • Senior Russian Official Claims NATO Drills Target Kaliningrad and Blockade Baltic/Black Seas: Воин DV summarizes claims by Patrushev that NATO exercises near Russia's borders are practicing scenarios for capturing Kaliningrad Oblast, blocking shipping in the Baltic and Black Seas, and striking Russian nuclear facilities. This is a significant claim aimed at portraying NATO as aggressive and a direct threat to Russia.
  • Russian Military Blogger Shares Personal Story on Drone Operations: Два майора shares a story from readers about a husband and wife working together in a Russian UAV unit on the border, with the wife as a reconnaissance operator and the husband as the FPV pilot and crew chief. This highlights the human element of drone warfare and the involvement of families in the conflict, likely for morale and propaganda purposes.
  • Russian Military Blogger Shares Video Claiming Air Strike on Ukrainian PVD in Orikhiv: Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show a Russian air strike using guided aerial bombs (UMPK) on a Ukrainian PVD and UAV launch point of the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade in Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This indicates continued Russian air strikes and targeting of Ukrainian positions and equipment.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

  • Pokrovsk Direction: Intense ground combat. Russian forces claim further gains and active combat near Krasnoarmeysk, with an infantry unit attacking and advancing over 1 km. Russian sources showcase claimed destruction of NATO equipment.
  • Toretsk (Konstantinovka) Direction: Intense ground combat and combined Russian assaults reported. Ukrainian forces repelling attacks. Active combat near Kurakhove, with Russian light motorized rifle units advancing. Ukrainian Presidential Brigade showcasing effectiveness. Russian units claim occupying the northern part of Stupochky after repelling counterattacks. Ukrainian FPV drone operators active against Russian personnel and equipment. Дневник Десантника reports Russian advances north of the Toretskaya mine, expanding control by 800m, and advances in Shcherbinivka, advancing 1 km and attempting to cut off a Ukrainian grouping.
  • Zaporizhzhia Direction: Ongoing Russian offensive pressure. Civilian casualties and damage reported. Drone attacks including on a school bus. Report of ongoing fighting near Shcherbakov, Mala Tokmachka, and Stepove, with high Ukrainian drone activity and Russian use of artillery and cluster munitions. Russian FPV drone operators showcasing work in border areas. Colonelcassad shares video claiming air strike on Ukrainian PVD and UAV launch point in Orikhiv.
  • Sumi Direction: Ongoing Russian offensive pressure. Ukrainian Air Force reports KAB strikes. Ukrainian forces claim destruction of a Lancet drone. Russian military blogger reports enemy assault using pickup trucks was destroyed. Russian FPV drone operators showcasing work in border areas. Ukrainian forces fundraising for river mines.
  • Lyman Direction: Russian forces claim advances. Ongoing combat engagements.
  • Chasiv Yar Direction: Russian forces claim consolidation of positions. Russian units claim occupying the northern part of Stupochky after repelling counterattacks.
  • Kherson Direction: Unconfirmed Russian claims of amphibious crossings. Ukrainian Air Force reports KABs. Ukrainian forces fundraising for river mines.
  • Kupiansk Direction: Russian forces claim liberation of Doroshovka and note its significance, and control of a section of the P-79 highway, continuing to advance. Ukrainian General Staff reports repelling attacks. Russian military blogger claims destruction of a Ukrainian T-72 tank. Kharkiv Oblast Governor emphasizes need for civilian evacuation from frontline communities, particularly Kupiansk. DeepState reports Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault north of Stepova Novoselivka, inflicting significant losses. Воин DV claims Russian FPV drones destroyed a Ukrainian pickup truck with infantry near Veseloye, north of Stepova Novoselivka. RBC-Ukraine reports Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault and destroyed equipment. Colonelcassad shares video claiming destruction of various Ukrainian equipment, including Western-supplied assets. Дневник Десантника reports continued Russian "rolling" attacks on the northern flank near Topolya, targeting enemy positions towards Kolodeznoye and Dvurechansky with artillery and drones after liberating Kamenka, and claimed destruction of a large Ukrainian PVD including foreign mercenaries and drone production facilities near Kupyansk. On the southern flank, control is claimed up to the center of Zagryzovo.
  • Kursk Oblast: Ongoing combat operations and shelling. Confirmed Ukrainian presence fighting Russian and North Korean forces. Russia claims complete rout and liberation of Gornal. Reports of active infantry attacks and gains in Loknya in the Sudzha area. Increased size of cemetery in Kursk. Russian expert claims encountering Western mercenaries. Russian sources highlighting North Korean involvement and its significance, and potential future deployment to other fronts. Russian regional governor visits and plans for memorial reconstruction. Head of SBU Center of Special Operations "A" reports SBU special forces struck two enemy helicopters in the Kursk region. Russian military personnel using a Russian-Korean phrasebook. Russian regional governor visits and discusses reconstruction. WarGonzo reports on the 56th Airborne Assault Regiment fighting in the Kursk border region. Colonelcassad shares graphic photos of deceased Ukrainian soldiers in the Sudzha border area, claiming clearing of explosive objects and mapping bodies.
  • Belgorod Oblast: Continued Ukrainian combat operations. Ukrainian drone attack reported with casualties. Ukrainian forces claim control of a border strip and inflicting significant Russian losses. Russian FPV drone operators showcasing work in border areas.
  • Kyiv Oblast (including Kyiv City): Air raid alert canceled. Confirmed damage and civilian injury from drone debris. KMVA reports detection and destruction of UAVs. Potential threat of attack UAVs. Ukrainian General Staff reports on Brave1 Defense Tech Era event focusing on military innovation.
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Massive Russian drone attack with casualties, including a child fatality. Damage to infrastructure and houses. Artillery and FPV drone attacks on Nikopol and surrounding communities with casualties and damage. Office of the Prosecutor General investigating attacks. Corruption case reported at a defense plant, with SBU detentions. Head of Kryvyi Rih Defense Council reports ongoing attacks and provides updated casualty/damage information. Forced evacuation of seven villages in the Synelnykivskyi district due to Russian offensive. SBU confirms detention of defense plant leadership in connection with defective mortar rounds. KіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posts video likely related to the SBU detentions.
  • Kharkiv Oblast: Russian forces claim destruction of Ukrainian strongholds and armored vehicles. Ukrainian reports of widespread drone and guided aerial bomb attacks with civilian injuries and damage. Rocket danger reported. Potential threat of attack UAVs. Ukrainian forces claim destruction of a T-72 tank. Kharkiv Oblast Governor emphasizes need for civilian evacuation from frontline communities, particularly Kupiansk. Два майора shares video claiming successful "Geran" strike. Colonelcassad shares video claiming destruction of various Ukrainian equipment. Kharkiv Oblast Governor reports on mine danger and demining efforts. Дневник Десантника reports Russian aviation actively working near Kupyansk, claiming destruction of a large Ukrainian PVD including foreign mercenaries and drone production facilities.
  • Donetsk Oblast: Ongoing KAB strikes. Reconnaissance UAV activity reported. Reports of potential civilian casualties and damage to a residential building in Gorlivka following a Ukrainian strike. TASS reports five police officers injured in Gorlivka. Mash on Donbas reports potential casualties under rubble and increased number of injured (16, including a child). Colonelcassad reports at least 16 people injured, including a child. Russian claims of successes on the Southern Donetsk direction. Office of the Prosecutor General reports uncovering a significant corruption scheme involving officials from a defense plant and military representatives suspected of supplying over 120,000 unusable mortar rounds to the front. ASTRA reports 17 residents and 5 "DPR" МВД injured in Gorlivka, including children, from alleged HIMARS strike. WarGonzo reports 16 wounded, including a one-year-old child. Basurin o glavnom reports around 16 injured, including a one-year-old child, with one in very serious condition and the driver injured. Операция Z reports 16 wounded, including a one-year-old child. Дневник Десантника reports 17 injured from HIMARS shelling, including a four-month-old child. Военкор Котенок reports Russian advances on the Krasnolimansky direction, occupying parts of Nove and Lipove and advances near Verkhnokamyanske and Ivano-Daryivka on the Siversk direction, as well as claiming to occupy the northern part of Stupochky on the Chasiv Yar direction. Ukrainian forces fundraising for river mines.
  • Cherkasy Oblast: Reported drone attack with damage to gas infrastructure. Claim of Ukrainian Su-27 shot down.
  • Gorlivka: Reports of a destroyed residential building and potential casualties under the rubble following a Ukrainian strike. TASS reports five police officers injured. Mash on Donbas reports potential casualties under rubble and increased number of injured (16, including a child). Colonelcassad reports at least 16 people injured, including a child. ASTRA reports 17 residents and 5 "DPR" МВД injured, including children, from alleged HIMARS strike. WarGonzo reports 16 wounded, including a one-year-old child. Basurin o glavnom reports around 16 injured, including a one-year-old child, with one in very serious condition and the driver injured. Операция Z reports 16 wounded, including a one-year-old child. Дневник Десантника reports 17 injured from HIMARS shelling, including a four-month-old child.
  • Crimea: ASTRA reports a Ukrainian drone damaged a Russian air defense radar station near Dmytrivka in the Soviet district on April 28th. STERNENKO reports a missile threat with reports of a Neptun attack.
  • Brazil (Rio de Janeiro): BRICS foreign ministers meeting with discussions on the conflict. Lavrov detailed Russia's approaches to settlement.
  • Russia (Volgograd): Putin and Lukashenko visit for "Great Heritage - Common Future" forum, emphasizing historical narratives and WWII. Reports of disruptions and an injury during the visit. Russian regional governor visits and plans for memorial reconstruction in Kursk Oblast.
  • Russia (St. Petersburg): Detention of an individual for supporting the "Russian Volunteer Corps." Promotion of the "People's Museum of the SVO." Detention in St. Petersburg of an individual for social media posts supporting the "Russian Volunteer Corps" and calling for liquidation of Russian leadership reported by Colonelcassad and Два майора.
  • Russia (Penza): Investigation into a United Russia deputy for allegedly wearing unauthorized military awards.
  • Russia (Kazan): Sentencing of a schoolchild for anti-war graffiti. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of an alleged domestic dispute.
  • Russia (Moscow): Traffic restrictions for Victory Parade preparations. Incident involving a shooting within a Rosgvardiya orchestra. News reports on weather and a new project for humanoid robots. News indicates city services will work as usual during May holidays. Aeroflot adds ticket correction function. Videos of tanks in Moscow. Funeral of General Moskalik in Mytishchi near Moscow reported.
  • Latvia: Reported significant drone supplies to Ukraine.
  • Moldova: Ongoing ban on St. George ribbons and societal division regarding Victory Day.
  • Poland: Reports of car accidents involving Ukrainian citizens.
  • Turkey (Antalya): Bus accident involving Russian tourists.
  • Yemen: Reports of Russian sailors wounded during a US strike.
  • Montenegro: Review of honorary citizenships, prompted by calls to revoke the citizenship of a Russian propagandist.
  • Kyrgyzstan: Security Council Secretary warns of potential destabilization to distract Russia.
  • Finland: Source expresses negative view of EU.
  • Crimea (Yalta): Planned action on May 3rd supporting Russian forces.
  • Russia (Arkhangelsk Oblast): Reports of flooding at a cemetery with military graves.
  • Russia (Altai): Discussion on internal issues with Roma communities.
  • Armenia (Yerevan): Book presentation by a Russian war correspondent. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan states no intention to sever ties with Russia while seeking good relations with all international partners, including deepening ties with the EU.
  • United States: Trump's special representative Kellogg rejects Putin's May 9th ceasefire proposal as "absurd" and advocates for a 30-day truce. Bloomberg reports on the impasse in peace negotiations, with Putin demanding control of four regions. Trump advisor Waltzing calls Ukraine "one of the most corrupt countries." Trump reportedly rejects a ceasefire on current lines and demands control of four regions. Reported impasse in negotiations without a Putin-Trump meeting. Trump's advisor Waltzing states Russia and Ukraine should hurry with a peace deal before Trump loses patience.
  • Toropets (Russia): Head of SBU Center of Special Operations "A" details successful long-range operation targeting a Russian ammunition depot, destroying 160,000 tons of ammunition.
  • Russia (Mytishchi): Funeral of General Moskalik reported.
  • Ukraine: Ukrainian General Staff reports on Brave1 Defense Tech Era event focusing on military innovation. Ukraine considers new tax on online sales. Ukrainian forces fundraising for river mines. Lviv police investigating deaths of two teenagers. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими and ГУР МО report successful evacuation of Ukrainian woman and children from Syria.

The core operational picture remains one of sustained, high-intensity conflict on multiple fronts, with significant use of drones and aerial bombardment by both sides, resulting in civilian casualties and now impacting areas closer to the administrative borders of oblasts previously less affected. The North Korean military involvement, officially confirmed and extensively promoted by both Russia and North Korea as a significant allied contribution and a model for future cooperation, and ongoing diplomatic maneuvering, remain key strategic factors. Continued Russian efforts on the Sumy direction and now demonstrably towards eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are evident, as are ongoing Ukrainian counter-intelligence and defense measures against aerial threats. The large-scale Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia continue. The rhetoric from both sides remains firm, with no clear path to a negotiated settlement evident despite ongoing discussions, further evidenced by Peskov's stance on ceasefire nuances and Medvedev's strong rhetoric, and now Trump's varying statements, including his representative advocating for a 30-day truce. Ukraine is actively pursuing diplomatic channels to highlight Russian aggression and secure international support, including through the upcoming UN Security Council meeting and discussions with the US on rare earth metals. Russia's reported plans to exploit mineral resources in occupied territories further indicate a long-term strategic objective of control. Domestic issues in both countries and international diplomatic events continue to unfold alongside the military conflict. The reported liberation of Doroshovka by Russian forces on the Kupiansk direction, if confirmed, represents a localized Russian tactical gain and a potential expansion of their bridgehead in the area. The alleged downing of a Ukrainian Su-27 by Russian forces, if verified, would be a significant loss for the Ukrainian Air Force and an indicator of Russian aerial effectiveness. Ukraine's focus on recruiting for technological roles within the military and for UAV operators indicates a strategic emphasis on developing and deploying advanced defense solutions. The reported incident involving a Russian servicemember accused of a violent crime while on leave, and who was previously accused of war crimes by Ukraine, raises concerns about potential behavioral issues among some returning personnel and potential legal and ethical implications. The Wall Street Journal report suggesting Russia plans to accelerate its offensive with favorable weather conditions and foliage cover, coupled with anticipated shortages of Western artillery for Ukraine, highlights potential future operational challenges and strategic considerations for both sides. The reported attempt at railway sabotage in Lviv, if confirmed as directed by Russia, indicates continued efforts to disrupt Ukrainian logistics and infrastructure, even in western regions. The reported injury of a civilian in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and the attack on a school bus are concerning examples of the humanitarian impact of the conflict. The destruction of Ukrainian equipment by the 63rd brigade and Russian drone operators highlights the ongoing attrition and effectiveness of drone warfare. The meeting of the Coordination Headquarters with families of marines underscores the ongoing efforts to address the human cost of the conflict and the issue of prisoners of war and missing personnel. A powerful explosion with secondary detonation in Sloviansk near the railway station indicates a successful strike on a significant target, likely a military or logistical asset given the location. The increased size of the cemetery in Kursk is a somber indicator of the human cost of the conflict for Russia. Discussions among Russian military bloggers about PTSD and the behavior of some veterans reflect internal social issues and challenges within Russia related to the conflict. The Russian Ministry of Finance proposing tax benefits for "special military operation" participants and their families indicates government efforts to provide social and economic support for those involved in the conflict. Ukraine's continued ability to maintain stable electricity prices despite significant damage to generating capacity highlights resilience in the energy sector, although the noted destruction points to a vulnerability that Russia is exploiting. The sentencing of a Ukrainian citizen in Sumy for state treason, including collecting and transmitting information about Ukrainian troop movements and locations, and spreading pro-Russian narratives, highlights internal counter-intelligence efforts and the ongoing information war. The relocation of vulnerable populations from frontline areas in Zaporizhzhia Oblast underscores the humanitarian impact of the conflict and the need for evacuation and support. The lowering of the dollar exchange rate by the National Bank of Ukraine indicates economic activity and potentially a degree of stability in the financial sector. The claimed destruction of a Ukrainian T-72 tank by Russian drones highlights the continued effectiveness of UAVs against armored vehicles and the ongoing attrition of Ukrainian equipment. The showcasing of Russian drones destroying Ukrainian wheeled vehicles and remote minefields by UAVs further emphasizes the widespread and impactful use of drones by Russian forces. The detention of an individual in St. Petersburg for supporting the "Russian Volunteer Corps" indicates internal security measures against groups perceived as a threat by Russia. Reports of disruptions and an injury during the high-level visit in Volgograd highlight the impact of security measures on civilian life and potentially raise questions about organization and safety during such events. The modernization efforts in Kryvyi Rih's heat supply system demonstrate ongoing efforts to maintain and improve civilian infrastructure despite the conflict, while also highlighting challenges with personnel shortages and the potential for employment and military deferment incentives. The reported Hungarian vote to withdraw from the International Criminal Court is a significant international development with implications for international justice and accountability. Trump's recent statements expressing a belief that Ukraine will be "crushed very soon" add a new dimension to the diplomatic landscape and signal a potentially pessimistic view from a prominent international figure. Russia is promoting discussions about historical memory and events of World War II, potentially as part of its information operations related to the current conflict. Russian sources claim a precision strike by Russian forces on a warehouse in Sloviansk, resulting in a fire and secondary detonation, further highlighting ongoing strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and potential military/logistical targets. Russian sources are commenting on alleged corruption and audits of US aid to Ukraine, likely as part of their information operations to undermine Western support. The creation of a new Ukrainian tank battalion indicates ongoing efforts to maintain and build up armored capabilities. Footage of Ukrainian forces destroying a Russian golf cart with a drone on the Siversk direction indicates ongoing localized engagements and the use of drones against unconventional military transport. Ukrainian sources are leveraging the confirmed death of Russian General Moskalik, highlighting his alleged role in providing fabricated reports to Russian leadership as part of their information operations. Russian military bloggers are disseminating negative portrayals of deceased Ukrainian soldiers. Discussion continues regarding the details of the treatment and death of journalist Viktoriia Roshchyna in Russian captivity, highlighting concerns about the treatment of prisoners. Statements from US Vice President Vance questioning Ukraine's ability to win and raising the possibility of nuclear conflict are being amplified by Russian sources, contributing to the narrative of potential Ukrainian defeat and the risks of escalation. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is implementing measures to rotate experienced personnel into Territorial Recruitment Centers and deploy TCC staff without combat experience to combat zones, indicating ongoing efforts to improve recruitment efficiency and personnel utilization. Reports of European leaders declining to attend a summit in Kyiv on May 9th, opting for other security-related engagements, suggest security concerns and prioritization of alternative strategic events are influencing diplomatic schedules. Russian sources are highlighting claimed destruction of Ukrainian equipment by Russian special forces on the Southern Donetsk direction, showcasing their capabilities. A fire at a school in occupied Mariupol is reported, highlighting the continued impact of the conflict on civilian infrastructure in occupied territories. Russian sources are disseminating graphic videos purporting to show the abandonment of deceased Ukrainian soldiers, likely as a psychological operation to demoralize Ukrainian forces and the population. Russian sources are claiming Russian advances on the Southern Donetsk direction. Russian sources are promoting the use of mortars by Russian special forces. Reports of a schoolchild in Kazan being sentenced for anti-war graffiti highlight Russian internal repression against dissent related to the conflict. Russian military bloggers are commenting on German political dynamics and the stance of a potential new German Chancellor towards Russia and Ukraine, indicating a focus on the political landscape of key international partners. Statements from a Russian military blogger characterizing the move to send TCC staff to the front as an indicator of potential corruption in evading conscription are being disseminated. Reports of the Security Service of Ukraine detaining a Russian agent attempting to set fire to a Territorial Recruitment Center in Chernihiv indicate ongoing Russian efforts to disrupt Ukrainian mobilization and infrastructure and Ukrainian counter-intelligence efforts. Statements from a Russian military expert characterize Putin's ceasefire announcement as an attempt to appeal to Ukrainians who value Victory Day, while accusing Ukrainian authorities of not adhering to past ceasefires. The Ukrainian Air Force is reporting ongoing KAB strikes on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. Ukraine is formally introducing criminal responsibility for the deportation of children, a move aimed at prosecuting those involved. American M109 Paladin self-propelled howitzers are being observed with additional Ukrainian units, suggesting increased Western artillery supplies. The decision by the Ukrainian General Staff to send TCC employees without combat experience to the front and replace them with wounded personnel is generating discussion and commentary, particularly from Russian sources framing it negatively. An incident involving a shooting within a Russian National Guard orchestra in Moscow highlights internal issues in Russia. Latvia is actively contributing to Ukraine's drone capabilities with significant deliveries. Ukrainian Naval Forces continue to target Russian logistical assets in the southern areas. Ukrainian units are effectively targeting Russian infantry and equipment with artillery. President Zelenskyy is highlighting Ukraine's expertise in energy security and advocating for broader regional cooperation in the Three Seas Initiative framework. Ukraine's Office of the Prosecutor General is pursuing war crimes cases, with a conviction reported for cruel treatment and rape in the Kyiv region. The ban on St. George ribbons in Moldova continues to be a point of contention and social division. Reports of children participating in military-style drills in Russia or occupied territories underscore the impact of the conflict on youth and potential militarization. Efforts are being made to provide psychological support to Russian soldiers and their families returning from the conflict zone. The Coordination Headquarters continues its work on prisoner of war issues and support for families. Russia is leveraging historical narratives and events, such as the forum in Volgograd with Putin and Lukashenko, for political and propaganda purposes. Continued reports of civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure in Horlivka highlight the ongoing humanitarian impact of the conflict. Legal proceedings and convictions are occurring in Russia related to alleged acts of terrorism linked to the conflict. A major case of suspected corruption and hindering military activity has been reported in Ukraine concerning the supply of unusable mortar rounds. The Russian Ministry of Defense and Ukrainian units are showcasing successful drone operations. Office of the Prosecutor General in Ukraine reports uncovering a significant corruption scheme involving officials from a defense plant and military representatives suspected of supplying over 120,000 unusable 120mm mortar rounds to the front, causing significant damage to combat capability. Mash on Donbas reports potential casualties under the rubble of a destroyed residential building in Gorlivka allegedly from a Ukrainian strike, with reported casualties, and notes that people may be under the rubble. An urgent fundraising campaign is underway for a Ukrainian brigade on the Kharkiv direction, highlighting operational needs and perceived increased Russian pressure. The SBU has confirmed the detention of the leadership of a defense plant and military representatives in connection with the supply of defective mortar rounds. Russian President Putin has ordered the development of unified standards of support for participants of the "special military operation" and their families across all regions of Russia. Russian state media reports increased oil supply from Russian ports despite sanctions, according to Bloomberg. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a 68-year-old woman was injured and private houses and an agricultural enterprise were damaged by Russian attacks in one community. TASS reports five police officers were injured in Gorlivka due to Ukrainian artillery shelling.

Major Changes in the Last Hour:

  • Russia Details Activity and Claims Advances on Kupiansk Direction: Дневник Десантника provides a detailed report on the Kupiansk direction. Russian forces claim continued "rolling" attacks on the northern flank near Topolya. After liberating Kamenka, they are reportedly using artillery and drones to target enemy positions towards Kolodeznoye and Dvurechansky. Russian aviation is actively working near Kupyansk, claiming to have destroyed a large enemy personnel and temporary deployment point (PVD) in the northern part of the city, including foreign mercenaries and drone production facilities. On the southern flank near Zagryzovo, Russian forces claim control up to the center of the village, with the enemy attacking and holding the southern part. No significant changes are reported on the right bank of the Oskol, attributed to the higher bank requiring additional resources. This report indicates continued Russian offensive pressure on the Kupiansk axis, with claims of specific tactical gains and targeting of Ukrainian assets and personnel.
  • Russia Claims Advances on Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk) Direction: Дневник Десантника reports on the "Dzerzhinsk direction." Russian fighters north of the Toretskaya mine claim to have expanded their control by 800m. The enemy is reportedly using drones against their advancing forces. Russian forces are also targeting an enemy shelter at the Berezka camp, where the enemy has equipped a PVD and drone launch points. They also claim "certain successes" in the Shcherbinivka area, advancing 1 km and cutting off the enemy grouping in the southern part of the village from the northern part by advancing from the area of the St. Matrona of Moscow mine. This indicates continued Russian offensive actions and claimed tactical gains on the Toretsk direction.
  • Ukrainian Woman and Children Evacuated from Syria: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими and ГУР МО report a complex evacuation mission by Ukraine's GUR and MFA rescued a Ukrainian woman and her two children from the Roj camp in Syria. The woman was reportedly the last Ukrainian citizen held in the camp for six years. This operation successfully returned all 14 women and 41 children who wished to be evacuated from the camp. This highlights Ukraine's efforts to rescue its citizens from difficult situations abroad and demonstrates the capabilities of its intelligence and diplomatic services in such operations, though it is not directly related to the ongoing conflict with Russia.
  • Russia Claims Negotiating with US Without Harming Partners: Alex Parker Returns cites Lavrov stating Russia will develop relations with the US in a way that does not harm its partners, and that both countries have a mutual interest in constructive dialogue. This suggests Russia is attempting to maintain its existing alliances while engaging in limited dialogue with the US.
  • Ukraine Considers New Tax on Online Sales: РБК-Україна reports the Ukrainian government has approved a draft law for a 10% tax on income from sales and services on online platforms like OLX, Rozetka, and Prom. This is a domestic economic development potentially aimed at increasing state revenue, not directly related to military operations but potentially impacting the economy supporting them.
  • Ukrainian 46th Airmobile Brigade Receives Honorary Designation: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України and Оперативний ЗСУ announce that the 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade has been granted the honorary designation "Podilska" by Presidential Decree. This recognition is likely aimed at boosting morale and highlighting the unit's service.
  • Russian Military Personnel Using Russian-Korean Phrasebook: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video and image showing Russian military personnel using a Russian-Korean phrasebook with military commands. This suggests interaction or potential joint operations with Korean-speaking forces (likely North Korean troops in Kursk) and reinforces the reports of North Korean involvement.
  • US Testing New Microwave Anti-Drone System: Два майора reports on the US company Epirus delivering the Expeditionary Directed Energy Counter-Swarm (ExDECS) microwave anti-drone system to the US Marine Corps for testing. This highlights ongoing development of advanced counter-drone technology by a key international partner.
  • Russian Regional Governor Visits Kursk and Discusses Reconstruction: Глеб Никитин, the governor of Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, reports visiting Kursk Oblast with Alexander Khinshtein to discuss infrastructure restoration, industry, and economy, and preparation for Kursk's 1000th anniversary. This indicates Russian efforts to normalize and rebuild in areas under their claimed control in Kursk Oblast.
  • Mariupol Resident Claims Attempts to Falsify Son's Death Certificate: ASTRA shares a video of a Mariupol resident claiming Russian authorities attempted to list her son's cause of death as a heart attack despite him being killed by shelling. This highlights potential efforts to manipulate casualty data and concerns about transparency regarding the human cost of the conflict in occupied territories.
  • Ukrainian FPV Drone Operators Active on Toretsk Direction: Оперативний ЗСУ and БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС share videos showcasing effective use of thermal FPV drones by the Azov 12th Brigade against Russian personnel and equipment on the Toretsk direction. This indicates continued intense fighting and successful Ukrainian tactical actions in this area. Два майора also comments on FPV drone work on the Konstantinovka direction.
  • Ukrainian General Staff on Defense Tech Era Event: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports on the Brave1 Defense Tech Era event in Kyiv, emphasizing the importance of optimizing the development and implementation of asymmetric solutions like drones and robotic complexes for the Ukrainian military. This highlights Ukraine's strategic focus on technological innovation to enhance military capabilities.
  • Ukrainian Forces Showcase Destroyed Russian Equipment: STERNENKO shares a video showing a batch of "demilitarized" Russian equipment, including a "tank-shed," self-propelled artillery, and vehicles. This serves to highlight Ukrainian successes in destroying Russian assets.
  • Russian Ministry of Defense Claims Destruction of Ukrainian Equipment on Kupiansk Direction: Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show Russian "West" Group of Forces destroying various Ukrainian equipment, including a British AS-90 self-propelled gun, a T-72 tank, a T-64 tank, an MT-12 anti-tank gun, a US M113 APC, pickups, a Baba Yaga drone, a robotic platform, and UAV launch points on the Kupiansk direction. This indicates ongoing intense fighting and significant equipment losses on this axis according to Russian claims, and highlights the presence of Western-supplied equipment in this area.
  • Ukrainian Forces Fundraising for River Mines: Сили оборони Півдня України are fundraising for 7000 anchored river mines to prevent Russian forces from crossing rivers in the south and east. This indicates concerns about potential Russian riverine operations and efforts by Ukrainian forces to bolster river defenses.
  • Lviv Police Investigating Deaths of Two Teenagers: РБК-Україна reports Lviv police are investigating the deaths of two teenagers who fell from the 16th floor, not excluding suicide. This is a domestic incident unrelated to military operations.
  • Trump Advisor Waltzing on Urgency of Peace Deal: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS cites Trump advisor Waltzing stating that Russia and Ukraine should hurry with a peace agreement before Trump loses patience, as reported in The National Interest. This adds another layer to the diplomatic discussions surrounding a potential peace settlement.
  • Kharkiv Oblast Governor on Mine Danger and Demining: Олег Синєгубов, Head of the Kharkiv Oblast State Administration, provides details on the significant mine danger in the oblast after liberation, the efforts of the Mine Action Coordination Center, the area cleared, and the number of explosive objects neutralized. He emphasizes the importance of demining for the safety of residents and the implementation of President Zelenskyy's "Safety" plan. This highlights the long-term impact of the conflict and the ongoing efforts to mitigate risks to the civilian population and infrastructure.
  • Russian Military Blogger Shares Propaganda Video: Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video from Russian military bloggers promoting a detailed instruction on how to become a "good Russian," framing it in a satirical and propagandistic manner. This is an example of the ongoing information warfare.
  • Sentence for Attempted Poisoning at Russian Flight School: ASTRA reports that a man has been sentenced to 27 years in prison in Russia for attempting to poison graduates of a flight school. This highlights internal security concerns and severe legal repercussions for perceived threats.
  • Colonelcassad Shares Graphic Content on Ukrainian Casualties in Kursk: Colonelcassad shares graphic photos allegedly of deceased Ukrainian soldiers in the Sudzha border area of Kursk Oblast, stating that "Northerners" (Russian forces) are clearing explosive objects and mapping the locations of enemy bodies. He claims most bodies can only be identified by DNA or distinctive features, and that most soldiers did not have documents or phones. This is likely part of a psychological operation to demoralize Ukrainian forces and the population and highlight claimed Russian successes in the area.
  • Russian Military Bloggers on Crimea Bridge and Ukrainian Intent: Два майора shares a video and commentary expressing frustration that the Crimea Bridge is seen as a real target by Ukraine and that Ukrainian channels are demonstrating a readiness to continue the war and destroy strategic civilian objects, claiming military cargo does not use the bridge. This is part of the Russian information operation to portray Ukraine as aggressive and targeting civilian infrastructure.
  • Senior Russian Official Claims NATO Drills Target Kaliningrad and Blockade Baltic/Black Seas: Воин DV summarizes claims by Patrushev that NATO exercises near Russia's borders are practicing scenarios for capturing Kaliningrad Oblast, blocking shipping in the Baltic and Black Seas, and striking Russian nuclear facilities. This is a significant claim aimed at portraying NATO as aggressive and a direct threat to Russia.
  • Russian Military Blogger Shares Personal Story on Drone Operations: Два майора shares a story from readers about a husband and wife working together in a Russian UAV unit on the border, with the wife as a reconnaissance operator and the husband as the FPV pilot and crew chief. This highlights the human element of drone warfare and the involvement of families in the conflict, likely for morale and propaganda purposes.
  • Russian Military Blogger Shares Video Claiming Air Strike on Ukrainian PVD in Orikhiv: Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show a Russian air strike using guided aerial bombs (UMPK) on a Ukrainian PVD and UAV launch point of the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade in Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This indicates continued Russian air strikes and targeting of Ukrainian positions and equipment.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

  • Pokrovsk Direction: Intense ground combat. Russian forces claim further gains and active combat near Krasnoarmeysk, with an infantry unit attacking and advancing over 1 km. Russian sources showcase claimed destruction of NATO equipment.
  • Toretsk (Konstantinovka) Direction: Intense ground combat and combined Russian assaults reported. Ukrainian forces repelling attacks. Active combat near Kurakhove, with Russian light motorized rifle units advancing. Ukrainian Presidential Brigade showcasing effectiveness. Russian units claim occupying the northern part of Stupochky after repelling counterattacks. Ukrainian FPV drone operators active against Russian personnel and equipment. Дневник Десантника reports Russian advances north of the Toretskaya mine, expanding control by 800m, and advances in Shcherbinivka, advancing 1 km and attempting to cut off a Ukrainian grouping.
  • Zaporizhzhia Direction: Ongoing Russian offensive pressure. Civilian casualties and damage reported. Drone attacks including on a school bus. Report of ongoing fighting near Shcherbakov, Mala Tokmachka, and Stepove, with high Ukrainian drone activity and Russian use of artillery and cluster munitions. Russian FPV drone operators showcasing work in border areas. Colonelcassad shares video claiming air strike on Ukrainian PVD and UAV launch point in Orikhiv.
  • Sumi Direction: Ongoing Russian offensive pressure. Ukrainian Air Force reports KAB strikes. Ukrainian forces claim destruction of a Lancet drone. Russian military blogger reports enemy assault using pickup trucks was destroyed. Russian FPV drone operators showcasing work in border areas. Ukrainian forces fundraising for river mines.
  • Lyman Direction: Russian forces claim advances. Ongoing combat engagements.
  • Chasiv Yar Direction: Russian forces claim consolidation of positions. Russian units claim occupying the northern part of Stupochky after repelling counterattacks.
  • Kherson Direction: Unconfirmed Russian claims of amphibious crossings. Ukrainian Air Force reports KABs. Ukrainian forces fundraising for river mines.
  • Kupiansk Direction: Russian forces claim liberation of Doroshovka and note its significance, and control of a section of the P-79 highway, continuing to advance. Ukrainian General Staff reports repelling attacks. Russian military blogger claims destruction of a Ukrainian T-72 tank. Kharkiv Oblast Governor emphasizes need for civilian evacuation from frontline communities, particularly Kupiansk. DeepState reports Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault north of Stepova Novoselivka, inflicting significant losses. Воин DV claims Russian FPV drones destroyed a Ukrainian pickup truck with infantry near Veseloye, north of Stepova Novoselivka. RBC-Ukraine reports Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault and destroyed equipment. Colonelcassad shares video claiming destruction of various Ukrainian equipment, including Western-supplied assets. Дневник Десантника reports continued Russian "rolling" attacks on the northern flank near Topolya, targeting enemy positions towards Kolodeznoye and Dvurechansky with artillery and drones after liberating Kamenka, and claimed destruction of a large Ukrainian PVD including foreign mercenaries and drone production facilities near Kupyansk. On the southern flank, control is claimed up to the center of Zagryzovo.
  • Kursk Oblast: Ongoing combat operations and shelling. Confirmed Ukrainian presence fighting Russian and North Korean forces. Russia claims complete rout and liberation of Gornal. Reports of active infantry attacks and gains in Loknya in the Sudzha area. Increased size of cemetery in Kursk. Russian expert claims encountering Western mercenaries. Russian sources highlighting North Korean involvement and its significance, and potential future deployment to other fronts. Russian regional governor visits and plans for memorial reconstruction. Head of SBU Center of Special Operations "A" reports SBU special forces struck two enemy helicopters in the Kursk region. Russian military personnel using a Russian-Korean phrasebook. Russian regional governor visits and discusses reconstruction. WarGonzo reports on the 56th Airborne Assault Regiment fighting in the Kursk border region. Colonelcassad shares graphic photos of deceased Ukrainian soldiers in the Sudzha border area, claiming clearing of explosive objects and mapping bodies.
  • Belgorod Oblast: Continued Ukrainian combat operations. Ukrainian drone attack reported with casualties. Ukrainian forces claim control of a border strip and inflicting significant Russian losses. Russian FPV drone operators showcasing work in border areas. Два майора shares a story from readers about a husband and wife working together in a Russian UAV unit on the border.
  • Kyiv Oblast (including Kyiv City): Air raid alert canceled. Confirmed damage and civilian injury from drone debris. KMVA reports detection and destruction of UAVs. Potential threat of attack UAVs. Ukrainian General Staff reports on Brave1 Defense Tech Era event focusing on military innovation.
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Massive Russian drone attack with casualties, including a child fatality. Damage to infrastructure and houses. Artillery and FPV drone attacks on Nikopol and surrounding communities with casualties and damage. Office of the Prosecutor General investigating attacks. Corruption case reported at a defense plant, with SBU detentions. Head of Kryvyi Rih Defense Council reports ongoing attacks and provides updated casualty/damage information. Forced evacuation of seven villages in the Synelnykivskyi district due to Russian offensive. SBU confirms detention of defense plant leadership in connection with defective mortar rounds. KіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posts video likely related to the SBU detentions.
  • Kharkiv Oblast: Russian forces claim destruction of Ukrainian strongholds and armored vehicles. Ukrainian reports of widespread drone and guided aerial bomb attacks with civilian injuries and damage. Rocket danger reported. Potential threat of attack UAVs. Ukrainian forces claim destruction of a T-72 tank. Kharkiv Oblast Governor emphasizes need for civilian evacuation from frontline communities, particularly Kupiansk. Два майора shares video claiming successful "Geran" strike. Colonelcassad shares video claiming destruction of various Ukrainian equipment. Kharkiv Oblast Governor reports on mine danger and demining efforts. Дневник Десантника reports Russian aviation actively working near Kupyansk, claiming destruction of a large Ukrainian PVD including foreign mercenaries and drone production facilities.
  • Donetsk Oblast: Ongoing KAB strikes. Reconnaissance UAV activity reported. Reports of potential civilian casualties and damage to a residential building in Gorlivka following a Ukrainian strike. TASS reports five police officers injured in Gorlivka. Mash on Donbas reports potential casualties under rubble and increased number of injured (16, including a child). Colonelcassad reports at least 16 people injured, including a child. Russian claims of successes on the Southern Donetsk direction. Office of the Prosecutor General reports uncovering a significant corruption scheme involving officials from a defense plant and military representatives suspected of supplying over 120,000 unusable mortar rounds to the front. ASTRA reports 17 residents and 5 "DPR" МВД injured in Gorlivka, including children, from alleged HIMARS strike. WarGonzo reports 16 wounded, including a one-year-old child. Basurin o glavnom reports around 16 injured, including a one-year-old child, with one in very serious condition and the driver injured. Операция Z reports 16 wounded, including a one-year-old child. Дневник Десантника reports 17 injured from HIMARS shelling, including a four-month-old child. Военкор Котенок reports Russian advances on the Krasnolimansky direction, occupying parts of Nove and Lipove and advances near Verkhnokamyanske and Ivano-Daryivka on the Siversk direction, as well as claiming to occupy the northern part of Stupochky on the Chasiv Yar direction. Ukrainian forces fundraising for river mines. Дневник Десантника reports Russian advances north of the Toretskaya mine, expanding control by 800m, and advances in Shcherbinivka, advancing 1 km and attempting to cut off a Ukrainian grouping.
  • Cherkasy Oblast: Reported drone attack with damage to gas infrastructure. Claim of Ukrainian Su-27 shot down.
  • Gorlivka: Reports of a destroyed residential building and potential casualties under the rubble following a Ukrainian strike. TASS reports five police officers injured. Mash on Donbas reports potential casualties under rubble and increased number of injured (16, including a child). Colonelcassad reports at least 16 people injured, including a child. ASTRA reports 17 residents and 5 "DPR" МВД injured, including children, from alleged HIMARS strike. WarGonzo reports 16 wounded, including a one-year-old child. Basurin o glavnom reports around 16 injured, including a one-year-old child, with one in very serious condition and the driver injured. Операция Z reports 16 wounded, including a one-year-old child. Дневник Десантника reports 17 injured from HIMARS shelling, including a four-month-old child.
  • Crimea: ASTRA reports a Ukrainian drone damaged a Russian air defense radar station near Dmytrivka in the Soviet district on April 28th. STERNENKO reports a missile threat with reports of a Neptun attack.
  • Brazil (Rio de Janeiro): BRICS foreign ministers meeting with discussions on the conflict. Lavrov detailed Russia's approaches to settlement.
  • Russia (Volgograd): Putin and Lukashenko visit for "Great Heritage - Common Future" forum, emphasizing historical narratives and WWII. Reports of disruptions and an injury during the visit. Russian regional governor visits and plans for memorial reconstruction in Kursk Oblast.
  • Russia (St. Petersburg): Detention of an individual for supporting the "Russian Volunteer Corps." Promotion of the "People's Museum of the SVO." Detention in St. Petersburg of an individual for social media posts supporting the "Russian Volunteer Corps" and calling for liquidation of Russian leadership reported by Colonelcassad and Два майора.
  • Russia (Penza): Investigation into a United Russia deputy for allegedly wearing unauthorized military awards.
  • Russia (Kazan): Sentencing of a schoolchild for anti-war graffiti. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of an alleged domestic dispute.
  • Russia (Moscow): Traffic restrictions for Victory Parade preparations. Incident involving a shooting within a Rosgvardiya orchestra. News reports on weather and a new project for humanoid robots. News indicates city services will work as usual during May holidays. Aeroflot adds ticket correction function. Videos of tanks in Moscow. Funeral of General Moskalik in Mytishchi near Moscow reported.
  • Latvia: Reported significant drone supplies to Ukraine.
  • Moldova: Ongoing ban on St. George ribbons and societal division regarding Victory Day.
  • Poland: Reports of car accidents involving Ukrainian citizens.
  • Turkey (Antalya): Bus accident involving Russian tourists.
  • Yemen: Reports of Russian sailors wounded during a US strike.
  • Montenegro: Review of honorary citizenships, prompted by calls to revoke the citizenship of a Russian propagandist.
  • Kyrgyzstan: Security Council Secretary warns of potential destabilization to distract Russia.
  • Finland: Source expresses negative view of EU.
  • Crimea (Yalta): Planned action on May 3rd supporting Russian forces.
  • Russia (Arkhangelsk Oblast): Reports of flooding at a cemetery with military graves.
  • Russia (Altai): Discussion on internal issues with Roma communities.
  • Armenia (Yerevan): Book presentation by a Russian war correspondent. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan states no intention to sever ties with Russia while seeking good relations with all international partners, including deepening ties with the EU.
  • United States: Trump's special representative Kellogg rejects Putin's May 9th ceasefire proposal as "absurd" and advocates for a 30-day truce. Bloomberg reports on the impasse in peace negotiations, with Putin demanding control of four regions. Trump advisor Waltzing calls Ukraine "one of the most corrupt countries." Trump reportedly rejects a ceasefire on current lines and demands control of four regions. Reported impasse in negotiations without a Putin-Trump meeting. Trump's advisor Waltzing states Russia and Ukraine should hurry with a peace deal before Trump loses patience.
  • Toropets (Russia): Head of SBU Center of Special Operations "A" details successful long-range operation targeting a Russian ammunition depot, destroying 160,000 tons of ammunition.
  • Russia (Mytishchi): Funeral of General Moskalik reported.
  • Ukraine: Ukrainian General Staff reports on Brave1 Defense Tech Era event focusing on military innovation. Ukraine considers new tax on online sales. Ukrainian forces fundraising for river mines. Lviv police investigating deaths of two teenagers. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими and ГУР МО report successful evacuation of Ukrainian woman and children from Syria.

The core operational picture remains one of sustained, high-intensity conflict on multiple fronts, with significant use of drones and aerial bombardment by both sides, resulting in civilian casualties and now impacting areas closer to the administrative borders of oblasts previously less affected. The North Korean military involvement, officially confirmed and extensively promoted by both Russia and North Korea as a significant allied contribution and a model for future cooperation, and ongoing diplomatic maneuvering, remain key strategic factors. Continued Russian efforts on the Sumy direction and now demonstrably towards eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are evident, as are ongoing Ukrainian counter-intelligence and defense measures against aerial threats. The large-scale Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia continue. The rhetoric from both sides remains firm, with no clear path to a negotiated settlement evident despite ongoing discussions, further evidenced by Peskov's stance on ceasefire nuances and Medvedev's strong rhetoric, and now Trump's varying statements, including his representative advocating for a 30-day truce. Ukraine is actively pursuing diplomatic channels to highlight Russian aggression and secure international support, including through the upcoming UN Security Council meeting and discussions with the US on rare earth metals. Russia's reported plans to exploit mineral resources in occupied territories further indicate a long-term strategic objective of control. Domestic issues in both countries and international diplomatic events continue to unfold alongside the military conflict. The reported liberation of Doroshovka by Russian forces on the Kupiansk direction, if confirmed, represents a localized Russian tactical gain and a potential expansion of their bridgehead in the area. The alleged downing of a Ukrainian Su-27 by Russian forces, if verified, would be a significant loss for the Ukrainian Air Force and an indicator of Russian aerial effectiveness. Ukraine's focus on recruiting for technological roles within the military and for UAV operators indicates a strategic emphasis on developing and deploying advanced defense solutions. The reported incident involving a Russian servicemember accused of a violent crime while on leave, and who was previously accused of war crimes by Ukraine, raises concerns about potential behavioral issues among some returning personnel and potential legal and ethical implications. The Wall Street Journal report suggesting Russia plans to accelerate its offensive with favorable weather conditions and foliage cover, coupled with anticipated shortages of Western artillery for Ukraine, highlights potential future operational challenges and strategic considerations for both sides. The reported attempt at railway sabotage in Lviv, if confirmed as directed by Russia, indicates continued efforts to disrupt Ukrainian logistics and infrastructure, even in western regions. The reported injury of a civilian in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and the attack on a school bus are concerning examples of the humanitarian impact of the conflict. The destruction of Ukrainian equipment by the 63rd brigade and Russian drone operators highlights the ongoing attrition and effectiveness of drone warfare. The meeting of the Coordination Headquarters with families of marines underscores the ongoing efforts to address the human cost of the conflict and the issue of prisoners of war and missing personnel. A powerful explosion with secondary detonation in Sloviansk near the railway station indicates a successful strike on a significant target, likely a military or logistical asset given the location. The increased size of the cemetery in Kursk is a somber indicator of the human cost of the conflict for Russia. Discussions among Russian military bloggers about PTSD and the behavior of some veterans reflect internal social issues and challenges within Russia related to the conflict. The Russian Ministry of Finance proposing tax benefits for "special military operation" participants and their families indicates government efforts to provide social and economic support for those involved in the conflict. Ukraine's continued ability to maintain stable electricity prices despite significant damage to generating capacity highlights resilience in the energy sector, although the noted destruction points to a vulnerability that Russia is exploiting. The sentencing of a Ukrainian citizen in Sumy for state treason, including collecting and transmitting information about Ukrainian troop movements and locations, and spreading pro-Russian narratives, highlights internal counter-intelligence efforts and the ongoing information war. The relocation of vulnerable populations from frontline areas in Zaporizhzhia Oblast underscores the humanitarian impact of the conflict and the need for evacuation and support. The lowering of the dollar exchange rate by the National Bank of Ukraine indicates economic activity and potentially a degree of stability in the financial sector. The claimed destruction of a Ukrainian T-72 tank by Russian drones highlights the continued effectiveness of UAVs against armored vehicles and the ongoing attrition of Ukrainian equipment. The showcasing of Russian drones destroying Ukrainian wheeled vehicles and remote minefields by UAVs further emphasizes the widespread and impactful use of drones by Russian forces. The detention of an individual in St. Petersburg for supporting the "Russian Volunteer Corps" indicates internal security measures against groups perceived as a threat by Russia. Reports of disruptions and an injury during the high-level visit in Volgograd highlight the impact of security measures on civilian life and potentially raise questions about organization and safety during such events. The modernization efforts in Kryvyi Rih's heat supply system demonstrate ongoing efforts to maintain and improve civilian infrastructure despite the conflict, while also highlighting challenges with personnel shortages and the potential for employment and military deferment incentives. The reported Hungarian vote to withdraw from the International Criminal Court is a significant international development with implications for international justice and accountability. Trump's recent statements expressing a belief that Ukraine will be "crushed very soon" add a new dimension to the diplomatic landscape and signal a potentially pessimistic view from a prominent international figure. Russia is promoting discussions about historical memory and events of World War II, potentially as part of its information operations related to the current conflict. Russian sources claim a precision strike by Russian forces on a warehouse in Sloviansk, resulting in a fire and secondary detonation, further highlighting ongoing strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and potential military/logistical targets. Russian sources are commenting on alleged corruption and audits of US aid to Ukraine, likely as part of their information operations to undermine Western support. The creation of a new Ukrainian tank battalion indicates ongoing efforts to maintain and build up armored capabilities. Footage of Ukrainian forces destroying a Russian golf cart with a drone on the Siversk direction indicates ongoing localized engagements and the use of drones against unconventional military transport. Ukrainian sources are leveraging the confirmed death of Russian General Moskalik, highlighting his alleged role in providing fabricated reports to Russian leadership as part of their information operations. Russian military bloggers are disseminating negative portrayals of deceased Ukrainian soldiers. Discussion continues regarding the details of the treatment and death of journalist Viktoriia Roshchyna in Russian captivity, highlighting concerns about the treatment of prisoners. Statements from US Vice President Vance questioning Ukraine's ability to win and raising the possibility of nuclear conflict are being amplified by Russian sources, contributing to the narrative of potential Ukrainian defeat and the risks of escalation. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is implementing measures to rotate experienced personnel into Territorial Recruitment Centers and deploy TCC staff without combat experience to combat zones, indicating ongoing efforts to improve recruitment efficiency and personnel utilization. Reports of European leaders declining to attend a summit in Kyiv on May 9th, opting for other security-related engagements, suggest security concerns and prioritization of alternative strategic events are influencing diplomatic schedules. Russian sources are highlighting claimed destruction of Ukrainian equipment by Russian special forces on the Southern Donetsk direction, showcasing their capabilities. A fire at a school in occupied Mariupol is reported, highlighting the continued impact of the conflict on civilian infrastructure in occupied territories. Russian sources are disseminating graphic videos purporting to show the abandonment of deceased Ukrainian soldiers, likely as a psychological operation to demoralize Ukrainian forces and the population. Russian sources are claiming Russian advances on the Southern Donetsk direction. Russian sources are promoting the use of mortars by Russian special forces. Reports of a schoolchild in Kazan being sentenced for anti-war graffiti highlight Russian internal repression against dissent related to the conflict. Russian military bloggers are commenting on German political dynamics and the stance of a potential new German Chancellor towards Russia and Ukraine, indicating a focus on the political landscape of key international partners. Statements from a Russian military blogger characterizing the move to send TCC staff to the front as an indicator of potential corruption in evading conscription are being disseminated. Reports of the Security Service of Ukraine detaining a Russian agent attempting to set fire to a Territorial Recruitment Center in Chernihiv indicate ongoing Russian efforts to disrupt Ukrainian mobilization and infrastructure and Ukrainian counter-intelligence efforts. Statements from a Russian military expert characterize Putin's ceasefire announcement as an attempt to appeal to Ukrainians who value Victory Day, while accusing Ukrainian authorities of not adhering to past ceasefires. The Ukrainian Air Force is reporting ongoing KAB strikes on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. Ukraine is formally introducing criminal responsibility for the deportation of children, a move aimed at prosecuting those involved. American M109 Paladin self-propelled howitzers are being observed with additional Ukrainian units, suggesting increased Western artillery supplies. The decision by the Ukrainian General Staff to send TCC employees without combat experience to the front and replace them with wounded personnel is generating discussion and commentary, particularly from Russian sources framing it negatively. An incident involving a shooting within a Russian National Guard orchestra in Moscow highlights internal issues in Russia. Latvia is actively contributing to Ukraine's drone capabilities with significant deliveries. Ukrainian Naval Forces continue to target Russian logistical assets in the southern areas. Ukrainian units are effectively targeting Russian infantry and equipment with artillery. President Zelenskyy is highlighting Ukraine's expertise in energy security and advocating for broader regional cooperation in the Three Seas Initiative framework. Ukraine's Office of the Prosecutor General is pursuing war crimes cases, with a conviction reported for cruel treatment and rape in the Kyiv region. The ban on St. George ribbons in Moldova continues to be a point of contention and social division. Reports of children participating in military-style drills in Russia or occupied territories underscore the impact of the conflict on youth and potential militarization. Efforts are being made to provide psychological support to Russian soldiers and their families returning from the conflict zone. The Coordination Headquarters continues its work on prisoner of war issues and support for families. Russia is leveraging historical narratives and events, such as the forum in Volgograd with Putin and Lukashenko, for political and propaganda purposes. Continued reports of civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure in Horlivka highlight the ongoing humanitarian impact of the conflict. Legal proceedings and convictions are occurring in Russia related to alleged acts of terrorism linked to the conflict. A major case of suspected corruption and hindering military activity has been reported in Ukraine concerning the supply of unusable mortar rounds. The Russian Ministry of Defense and Ukrainian units are showcasing successful drone operations. Office of the Prosecutor General in Ukraine reports uncovering a significant corruption scheme involving officials from a defense plant and military representatives suspected of supplying over 120,000 unusable 120mm mortar rounds to the front, causing significant damage to combat capability. Mash on Donbas reports potential casualties under the rubble of a destroyed residential building in Gorlivka allegedly from a Ukrainian strike, with reported casualties, and notes that people may be under the rubble. An urgent fundraising campaign is underway for a Ukrainian brigade on the Kharkiv direction, highlighting operational needs and perceived increased Russian pressure. The SBU has confirmed the detention of the leadership of a defense plant and military representatives in connection with the supply of defective mortar rounds. Russian President Putin has ordered the development of unified standards of support for participants of the "special military operation" and their families across all regions of Russia. Russian state media reports increased oil supply from Russian ports despite sanctions, according to Bloomberg. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a 68-year-old woman was injured and private houses and an agricultural enterprise were damaged by Russian attacks in one community. TASS reports five police officers were injured in Gorlivka due to Ukrainian artillery shelling.

Major Changes in the Last Hour:

  • Russia Details Activity and Claims Advances on Kupiansk Direction: Дневник Десантника provides a detailed report on the Kupiansk direction. Russian forces claim continued "rolling" attacks on the northern flank near Topolya. After liberating Kamenka, they are reportedly using artillery and drones to target enemy positions towards Kolodeznoye and Dvurechansky. Russian aviation is actively working near Kupyansk, claiming to have destroyed a large enemy personnel and temporary deployment point (PVD) in the northern part of the city, including foreign mercenaries and drone production facilities. On the southern flank near Zagryzovo, Russian forces claim control up to the center of the village, with the enemy attacking and holding the southern part. No significant changes are reported on the right bank of the Oskol, attributed to the higher bank requiring additional resources. This report indicates continued Russian offensive pressure on the Kupiansk axis, with claims of specific tactical gains and targeting of Ukrainian assets and personnel.
  • Russia Claims Advances on Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk) Direction: Дневник Десантника reports on the "Dzerzhinsk direction." Russian fighters north of the Toretskaya mine claim to have expanded their control by 800m. The enemy is reportedly using drones against their advancing forces. Russian forces are also targeting an enemy shelter at the Berezka camp, where the enemy has equipped a PVD and drone launch points. They also claim "certain successes" in the Shcherbinivka area, advancing 1 km and cutting off the enemy grouping in the southern part of the village from the northern part by advancing from the area of the St. Matrona of Moscow mine. This indicates continued Russian offensive actions and claimed tactical gains on the Toretsk direction.
  • Ukrainian Woman and Children Evacuated from Syria: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими and ГУР МО report a complex evacuation mission by Ukraine's GUR and MFA rescued a Ukrainian woman and her two children from the Roj camp in Syria. The woman was reportedly the last Ukrainian citizen held in the camp for six years. This operation successfully returned all 14 women and 41 children who wished to be evacuated from the camp. This highlights Ukraine's efforts to rescue its citizens from difficult situations abroad and demonstrates the capabilities of its intelligence and diplomatic services in such operations, though it is not directly related to the ongoing conflict with Russia.
  • Russia Claims Negotiating with US Without Harming Partners: Alex Parker Returns cites Lavrov stating Russia will develop relations with the US in a way that does not harm its partners, and that both countries have a mutual interest in constructive dialogue. This suggests Russia is attempting to maintain its existing alliances while engaging in limited dialogue with the US.
  • Ukraine Considers New Tax on Online Sales: РБК-Україна reports the Ukrainian government has approved a draft law for a 10% tax on income from sales and services on online platforms like OLX, Rozetka, and Prom. This is a domestic economic development potentially aimed at increasing state revenue, not directly related to military operations but potentially impacting the economy supporting them.
  • Ukrainian 46th Airmobile Brigade Receives Honorary Designation: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України and Оперативний ЗСУ announce that the 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade has been granted the honorary designation "Podilska" by Presidential Decree. This recognition is likely aimed at boosting morale and highlighting the unit's service.
  • Russian Military Personnel Using Russian-Korean Phrasebook: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video and image showing Russian military personnel using a Russian-Korean phrasebook with military commands. This suggests interaction or potential joint operations with Korean-speaking forces (likely North Korean troops in Kursk) and reinforces the reports of North Korean involvement.
  • US Testing New Microwave Anti-Drone System: Два майора reports on the US company Epirus delivering the Expeditionary Directed Energy Counter-Swarm (ExDECS) microwave anti-drone system to the US Marine Corps for testing. This highlights ongoing development of advanced counter-drone technology by a key international partner.
  • Russian Regional Governor Visits Kursk and Discusses Reconstruction: Глеб Никитин, the governor of Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, reports visiting Kursk Oblast with Alexander Khinshtein to discuss infrastructure restoration, industry, and economy, and preparation for Kursk's 1000th anniversary. This indicates Russian efforts to normalize and rebuild in areas under their claimed control in Kursk Oblast.
  • Mariupol Resident Claims Attempts to Falsify Son's Death Certificate: ASTRA shares a video of a Mariupol resident claiming Russian authorities attempted to list her son's cause of death as a heart attack despite him being killed by shelling. This highlights potential efforts to manipulate casualty data and concerns about transparency regarding the human cost of the conflict in occupied territories.
  • Ukrainian FPV Drone Operators Active on Toretsk Direction: Оперативний ЗСУ and БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС share videos showcasing effective use of thermal FPV drones by the Azov 12th Brigade against Russian personnel and equipment on the Toretsk direction. This indicates continued intense fighting and successful Ukrainian tactical actions in this area. Два майора also comments on FPV drone work on the Konstantinovka direction.
  • Ukrainian General Staff on Defense Tech Era Event: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports on the Brave1 Defense Tech Era event in Kyiv, emphasizing the importance of optimizing the development and implementation of asymmetric solutions like drones and robotic complexes for the Ukrainian military. This highlights Ukraine's strategic focus on technological innovation to enhance military capabilities.
  • Ukrainian Forces Showcase Destroyed Russian Equipment: STERNENKO shares a video showing a batch of "demilitarized" Russian equipment, including a "tank-shed," self-propelled artillery, and vehicles. This serves to highlight Ukrainian successes in destroying Russian assets.
  • Russian Ministry of Defense Claims Destruction of Ukrainian Equipment on Kupiansk Direction: Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show Russian "West" Group of Forces destroying various Ukrainian equipment, including a British AS-90 self-propelled gun, a T-72 tank, a T-64 tank, an MT-12 anti-tank gun, a US M113 APC, pickups, a Baba Yaga drone, a robotic platform, and UAV launch points on the Kupiansk direction. This indicates ongoing intense fighting and significant equipment losses on this axis according to Russian claims, and highlights the presence of Western-supplied equipment in this area.
  • Ukrainian Forces Fundraising for River Mines: Сили оборони Півдня України are fundraising for 7000 anchored river mines to prevent Russian forces from crossing rivers in the south and east. This indicates concerns about potential Russian riverine operations and efforts by Ukrainian forces to bolster river defenses.
  • Lviv Police Investigating Deaths of Two Teenagers: РБК-Україна reports Lviv police are investigating the deaths of two teenagers who fell from the 16th floor, not excluding suicide. This is a domestic incident unrelated to military operations.
  • Trump Advisor Waltzing on Urgency of Peace Deal: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS cites Trump advisor Waltzing stating that Russia and Ukraine should hurry with a peace agreement before Trump loses patience, as reported in The National Interest. This adds another layer to the diplomatic discussions surrounding a potential peace settlement.
  • Kharkiv Oblast Governor on Mine Danger and Demining: Олег Синєгубов, Head of the Kharkiv Oblast State Administration, provides details on the significant mine danger in the oblast after liberation, the efforts of the Mine Action Coordination Center, the area cleared, and the number of explosive objects neutralized. He emphasizes the importance of demining for the safety of residents and the implementation of President Zelenskyy's "Safety" plan. This highlights the long-term impact of the conflict and the ongoing efforts to mitigate risks to the civilian population and infrastructure.
  • Russian Military Blogger Shares Propaganda Video: Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video from Russian military bloggers promoting a detailed instruction on how to become a "good Russian," framing it in a satirical and propagandistic manner. This is an example of the ongoing information warfare.
  • Sentence for Attempted Poisoning at Russian Flight School: ASTRA reports that a man has been sentenced to 27 years in prison in Russia for attempting to poison graduates of a flight school. This highlights internal security concerns and severe legal repercussions for perceived threats.
  • Colonelcassad Shares Graphic Content on Ukrainian Casualties in Kursk: Colonelcassad shares graphic photos allegedly of deceased Ukrainian soldiers in the Sudzha border area of Kursk Oblast, stating that "Northerners" (Russian forces) are clearing explosive objects and mapping the locations of enemy bodies. He claims most bodies can only be identified by DNA or distinctive features, and that most soldiers did not have documents or phones. This is likely part of a psychological operation to demoralize Ukrainian forces and the population and highlight claimed Russian successes in the area.
  • Russian Military Bloggers on Crimea Bridge and Ukrainian Intent: Два майора shares a video and commentary expressing frustration that the Crimea Bridge is seen as a real target by Ukraine and that Ukrainian channels are demonstrating a readiness to continue the war and destroy strategic civilian objects, claiming military cargo does not use the bridge. This is part of the Russian information operation to portray Ukraine as aggressive and targeting civilian infrastructure.
  • Senior Russian Official Claims NATO Drills Target Kaliningrad and Blockade Baltic/Black Seas: Воин DV summarizes claims by Patrushev that NATO exercises near Russia's borders are practicing scenarios for capturing Kaliningrad Oblast, blocking shipping in the Baltic and Black Seas, and striking Russian nuclear facilities. This is a significant claim aimed at portraying NATO as aggressive and a direct threat to Russia.
  • Russian Military Blogger Shares Personal Story on Drone Operations: Два майора shares a story from readers about a husband and wife working together in a Russian UAV unit on the border, with the wife as a reconnaissance operator and the husband as the FPV pilot and crew chief. This highlights the human element of drone warfare and the involvement of families in the conflict, likely for morale and propaganda purposes.
  • Russian Military Blogger Shares Video Claiming Air Strike on Ukrainian PVD in Orikhiv: Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to show a Russian air strike using guided aerial bombs (UMPK) on a Ukrainian PVD and UAV launch point of the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade in Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This indicates continued Russian air strikes and targeting of Ukrainian positions and equipment.

Potential Future Developments

  • Continued high-intensity ground combat on current axes, with a focus on Russian attempts to achieve tactical breakthroughs, particularly on the Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, Krasnolimansky, and Siversk directions, and now in the Chasiv Yar area around Stupochky and on the Toretsk direction (including advances reported towards Shcherbinivka and north of Toretskaya mine).
  • Further Russian offensive efforts on the Sumy direction and potentially towards eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, as indicated by forced evacuations in the Synelnykivskyi district and ongoing aerial activity and perceived intent, and Ukrainian efforts to bolster river defenses. Continued Russian "rolling" attacks and attempts to push on the Kupiansk direction, including targeting of Ukrainian PVDs and potential drone production facilities.
  • Increased Russian reliance on and effectiveness of new loitering munitions like the "Banderol."
  • Continued combat and potential shifts in control in the Kursk border region, with the involvement of North Korean forces remaining a key factor, and potential deployment to other fronts. Russian expert claiming encountering Western mercenaries adds a new dimension. Russian regional governor visits indicate efforts to normalize and rebuild. Continued clearing of explosive objects and mapping of Ukrainian casualties in the Sudzha area by Russian forces.
  • Escalation or sustained activity in the Belgorod border region. Continued involvement of Russian UAV units on the border.
  • Further aerial attacks by both sides, with continued civilian impact and targeting of infrastructure. Potential threats to new areas like Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Lipetsk Oblasts. Continued movement of attack UAVs towards Odesa. Ukrainian efforts to counter these attacks. Continued Russian air strikes using guided aerial bombs, including in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • Independent investigation and clarification of the corruption case in Ukraine's defense industry and its impact on military capabilities. SBU detention of defense plant leadership confirms this is ongoing. Further legal proceedings expected.
  • Further investigations and legal proceedings related to the corruption case in Ukraine's defense industry. SBU detentions reinforce this.
  • The outcomes of ongoing rescue efforts in Gorlivka and further reporting on casualties. Increased reporting on casualties by multiple sources suggests this will remain a focus.
  • The success of fundraising efforts for Ukrainian units, including for river mines and equipment for snipers, and their impact on operational capabilities.
  • The potential impact of Trump's statements, including his representative's call for a truce and rejection of Putin's proposal, and Russia's reaction to these proposals. The reported impasse in negotiations according to Bloomberg and Putin's territorial demands highlight the challenges. Trump's differing rhetoric and advisors' statements could introduce unpredictability. Continued reports on potential Trump-Putin dialogue. Comments from Trump advisor Waltzing suggest potential pressure for a quick resolution.
  • Any observable impact of the reported Chinese business strategies to circumvent US tariffs.
  • Further information disseminated by Russia regarding military personnel or internal affairs.
  • Continued or intensified Russian propaganda efforts regarding the West and the conflict, including leveraging claims of destroyed NATO equipment and humanitarian impacts (Gorlivka casualties, alleged falsification of death certificates in Mariupol, graphic content on Ukrainian casualties in Kursk), and amplifying negative portrayals of Ukraine and its leadership. Utilization of events like the funeral of General Moskalik and statements by Trump's advisor for propaganda. Kotsnews poll results. Efforts to portray Ukraine as aggressive and targeting civilian infrastructure. Claims about NATO aggression. Sharing personal stories of military personnel.
  • Any changes in the stance or actions of European nations based on recent events and diplomatic engagements, including the postponement of the Kyiv summit. Ukraine's efforts to unblock its path to the EU through negotiations with Hungary.
  • Further legal actions and investigations related to alleged war crimes and internal security threats. Continued sentencing for terrorism-related charges in Russia.
  • Any observed changes in the tactics or frequency of railway sabotage attempts.
  • Impact of the Ukrainian General Staff's decision to rotate TCC personnel on recruitment and combat effectiveness. Commentary from Russian sources suggests this will be a point of emphasis.
  • Further information on the incident involving the Rosgvardiya orchestra in Moscow.
  • The impact of Latvia's drone supplies on Ukrainian capabilities.
  • Continued effectiveness of Ukrainian Naval Forces in targeting Russian logistics in the south. Ukrainian efforts to bolster river defenses.
  • Continued effectiveness of Ukrainian artillery units and specialized units like snipers.
  • Developments regarding regional energy security cooperation in the Three Seas Initiative format.
  • Further war crimes prosecutions by Ukraine.
  • Continued social and political tensions in Moldova regarding Victory Day and symbols.
  • Any observable impacts of reported military-style drills involving children in Russia/occupied territories.
  • Outcomes of psychological support efforts for returning Russian soldiers. Discussions among Russian military bloggers on PTSD suggest this is an ongoing issue.
  • Further developments in the Coordination Headquarters' work on prisoner of war issues. Continued efforts to evacuate Ukrainian citizens from abroad.
  • Continued Russian use of historical narratives for political purposes.
  • Continued reports of civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure in Horlivka.
  • Further legal proceedings in Russia related to alleged acts of terrorism.
  • Impact of the corruption case on the supply of ammunition and equipment to Ukrainian forces.
  • Continued showcase of drone operations by both sides. Russian sources showcasing destroyed NATO equipment and claiming destruction of Western-supplied assets. Ukrainian forces showcasing destroyed Russian equipment and effective FPV drone use. Colonelcassad and Ukrainian sources sharing videos of destroyed equipment. Russian and Ukrainian military bloggers sharing content on drone operations.
  • Potential for increased Western scrutiny of Russian oil supply chains following the Bloomberg report.
  • Potential for destabilization efforts in Central Asia and Russia's response, as highlighted by the Kyrgyzstan Security Council Secretary. Statement from Armenian PM.
  • Further details on the damage to the Russian air defense radar station in Crimea and any impact on Russian air defense capabilities in the region. Reports of Neptune attacks in Crimea indicate ongoing Ukrainian efforts in this area.
  • Any observable impact of the funeral of General Moskalik on Russian military or public sentiment.
  • Continued amplification of negative narratives about Ukraine and its leadership by Russian sources.
  • Impact of the new tax on online sales in Ukraine on the domestic economy.
  • Further reports on the testing and potential deployment of US microwave anti-drone systems.
  • Continued efforts by Russia to rebuild infrastructure and normalize life in areas under their control in Kursk Oblast.
  • Further reports on the police investigation in Lviv regarding the deaths of the teenagers.

Potential Indicators

  • Changes in the intensity or direction of ground assaults on key fronts. Russian claims of advances on Pokrovsk and Southern Donetsk directions and now Krasnolimansky and Siversk directions and around Stupochky. Reports of Ukrainian forces repelling assaults on Kupiansk direction and intense fighting on Toretsk direction. Russian claims of advances on Kupiansk and Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk) directions, including specific locations and distances.
  • Official statements or reliable reporting confirming or refuting Russian claims of advances and territorial control, particularly on the Siversk and Chasiv Yar directions.
  • Increased or decreased reports of drone and aerial bombardment in specific areas. Ukrainian claim of destroying a Lancet drone and Russian claims of destroying Baba Yaga drones. Russian FPV drone operators showcasing work in border areas. Ukrainian FPV drone operators active on Toretsk direction. Russian air strikes reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • Observational evidence of the deployment and effectiveness of the "Banderol" loitering munition.
  • Changes in territorial control reported by either side in Kursk Oblast or the Belgorod border region. Russian claims of advancing near Krasnoarmeysk and successes on Southern Donetsk direction. Reports of Russian advances in Nove and Lipove. Russian regional governor visits Kursk. Colonelcassad sharing graphic content on Ukrainian casualties in Kursk.
  • Increased or decreased activity of North Korean forces in Kursk Oblast, or reports of their presence on other fronts. Russian military personnel using a Russian-Korean phrasebook.
  • Reports of significant damage or casualties from aerial attacks in reported areas, including Kyiv, Poltava, and Zaporizhzhia. Reports of casualties in Gorlivka from multiple sources. Forced evacuation in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Reports of civilian casualties and damage in Gorlivka continue from multiple sources. Russian claims of destroying a large Ukrainian PVD near Kupyansk.
  • Reports of successful interceptions of drones or ballistic missiles by Ukrainian air defense in affected regions. Reports of missile threat and Neptune attack in Crimea. Development of US microwave anti-drone system.
  • Further information or propaganda themes emerging from Russian state media or military bloggers, particularly regarding Gorlivka casualties and amplification of negative statements about Ukraine. Utilization of events like the funeral of General Moskalik and statements by Trump's advisor for propaganda. Kotsnews poll results. Colonelcassad sharing graphic content on Ukrainian casualties in Kursk. Russian military bloggers on Crimea Bridge and Ukrainian intent. Claims about NATO aggression.
  • Statements or actions from international actors reacting to Trump's recent comments, including the advocacy for a truce and rejection of Putin's proposal, and Russia's response. Lavrov's statements clarifying Russia's position. Bloomberg report on negotiation impasse and Putin's demands. Trump's conflicting statements. Trump's advisor Waltzing's statements.
  • Any observable impact of the reported Chinese business strategies to circumvent US tariffs.
  • Further information or findings from the investigation into the death of Major General Yaroslav Moskalik.
  • Any changes in the threat level or air raid alerts for affected regions.
  • Official confirmation of the proposed naming of Russian naval vessels.
  • Reports on the implementation and scope of new Russian social support programs for military personnel.
  • Arrests, indictments, or convictions related to the corruption case in Ukraine's defense industry. The SBU detentions are a strong indicator. Further legal proceedings would be a strong indicator. SBU confirms detention of defense plant leadership.
  • Official reports on the number of casualties and the extent of damage in Gorlivka from additional sources or international organizations. Increased reporting on casualties by multiple sources is a strong indicator.
  • Reports on the successful acquisition and deployment of equipment through fundraising campaigns, including for river mines and equipment for snipers, and their impact on operational capabilities. Planned action in Yalta. Fundraising appeals by Russian military bloggers. Ukrainian fundraising for river mines. Ukrainian fundraising for snipers.
  • Any political reactions or responses to Donald Trump's recent statements or Nikolay Patrushev's claims. Statements from Trump's advisor Waltzing. Claims about NATO aggression by Patrushev.
  • Independent analysis or confirmation of the use and effectiveness of artificial intelligence in Russian military operations. Ukrainian General Staff reports on Brave1 Defense Tech Era event focusing on military innovation.
  • Any changes in the stance or actions of European governments regarding their support for Ukraine or their relationship with Russia, particularly concerning the postponed summit. Statement from Finnish source on negative view of EU. Statement from Ursula von der Leyen on EU expectations regarding US security role. Ukraine-Hungary negotiations on EU path.
  • Public announcements or legal documentation related to war crimes prosecutions or counter-intelligence operations. Sentence for attempted poisoning at Russian flight school.
  • Observed changes in the tactics or frequency of railway sabotage attempts.
  • Reports on the training and deployment of TCC personnel to the front and their effectiveness. Commentary from Russian sources is an indicator of the narrative surrounding this decision.
  • Any further incidents involving internal security forces or military personnel in Russia. Incident involving Rosgvardiya orchestra. Sentence for attempted poisoning at Russian flight school.
  • Reports on the impact of Latvian drone supplies on the battlefield.
  • Visual or intelligence confirmation of Ukrainian Naval Forces targeting Russian logistics in the south. Ukrainian efforts to bolster river defenses.
  • Reports on the effectiveness of Ukrainian artillery units. Effectiveness of sniper units.
  • Statements or agreements resulting from regional energy security discussions.
  • Further war crimes prosecutions by Ukraine.
  • Continued social or political unrest in Moldova related to symbols and historical narratives.
  • Further information or imagery related to reported military-style drills involving children.
  • Reports or observations regarding the psychological well-being of returning Russian soldiers. Discussions among Russian military bloggers on PTSD. Sharing personal stories of military personnel.
  • Updates from the Coordination Headquarters regarding prisoner exchanges or the status of missing personnel. Successful evacuation of Ukrainian citizens from Syria.
  • Continued Russian use of historical narratives for political purposes.
  • Continued reports of civilian casualties and damage in Gorlivka.
  • Further legal proceedings in Russia related to alleged acts of terrorism. Sentence for attempted poisoning at Russian flight school.
  • Impact of the corruption case on the supply of ammunition and equipment to Ukrainian forces. SBU confirms detention of defense plant leadership.
  • Continued showcase of drone operations by both sides. Russian sources showcasing destroyed NATO equipment and claiming destruction of Western-supplied assets. Ukrainian forces showcasing destroyed Russian equipment and effective FPV drone use. Colonelcassad and Ukrainian sources sharing videos of destroyed equipment. Russian and Ukrainian military bloggers sharing content on drone operations. Colonelcassad shares video claiming air strike on Ukrainian PVD and UAV launch point in Orikhiv.
  • Reports from analysts or governments on changes in Russian oil export volumes or routes.
  • Signs of increased political or social instability in Central Asian countries or statements from their leadership regarding potential threats. Statement from Kyrgyzstan Security Council Secretary. Statement from Armenian PM.
  • Visual confirmation or official reports of the damage to the Russian air defense radar station in Crimea and its impact on air defense coverage. Reports of Neptune attacks in Crimea.
  • Any observable impact of the funeral of General Moskalik on Russian military or public sentiment.
  • Continued amplification of negative narratives about Ukraine and its leadership by Russian sources. Colonelcassad sharing graphic content on Ukrainian casualties in Kursk. Russian military bloggers on Crimea Bridge and Ukrainian intent. Claims about NATO aggression. Sharing personal stories of military personnel.
  • Reports on the implementation and impact of the new tax on online sales in Ukraine.
  • Further reports on the testing and potential deployment of US microwave anti-drone systems.
  • Continued efforts by Russia to rebuild infrastructure and normalize life in areas under their control in Kursk Oblast. Russian regional governor visits and discusses reconstruction.
  • Further reports on the police investigation in Lviv regarding the deaths of the teenagers.

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