Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (April 28, 2025, 17:49 UTC)

---

Executive Summary

Intense combat continues across the frontlines with Russian forces claiming continued advances on multiple axes, including Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Southern Donetsk, and now specifically claiming the "liberation" of Kamenka on the Kupyansk direction. Russia also continues to report extensive Ukrainian drone attacks on its border regions, detailing damage to civilian infrastructure and vehicles in Bryansk Oblast. Ukraine highlights its continued defense, targeting of Russian assets, and successful operation of its air defense systems, including significant claims of downing numerous Russian UAVs by specific units. The political and information environment remains dynamic, with Russia amplifying narratives of Ukrainian forced mobilization and lack of unit control, while Ukraine focuses on technological innovation and international partnerships.

Strategic and Tactical Overview

Ukrainian Actions and Capabilities:

• Active Defense and Counter-Attacks: Ukrainian forces continue to defend against intense Russian assaults across the front. They are conducting tactical operations in border regions (Belgorod Oblast) and employing drones effectively for reconnaissance and targeting Russian assets.
• Air Defense and Counter-UAV Operations: Ukraine is actively countering Russian aerial threats, including significant claims of successful interceptions of numerous UAVs (349 UAVs over 6 months by the Third Assault Brigade, including various types like Zala, Supercam, Skat, Orlan, Merlin, Lancet, and Molniya, with 220 downed by FPV interceptors). The activation and subsequent cancellation of air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and the tracking of drone groups indicate ongoing vigilance. A Ukrainian unit "DARKNODE" is actively recruiting and specializing in countering Shahed drones.
• Artillery Operations: Ukrainian artillery, including NATO-standard 155mm howitzers like the "Bohdana" and FH70, is actively engaged on the Zaporizhzhia direction, highlighting continued reliance on and effective use of these systems for fire support, counter-battery fire, and targeting enemy positions and logistics.
• Technological Innovation and Adoption: The launch of the Brave1 Market is a significant step towards streamlining the procurement of modern military technologies directly by units, including UAVs, ground robots, EW, and AI solutions. This initiative aims to accelerate technological adoption and improve battlefield effectiveness. A Ukrainian unit specializing in countering Shahed drones is actively recruiting, demonstrating focus on this specific threat.
• Force Generation and Training: Ongoing training programs, including those with international partners (NATO/Poland as previously reported) and specialized units like the one focused on countering Shahed drones, are crucial for maintaining combat effectiveness.
• Logistical Support: While volunteer fundraising supplements official supplies, the ongoing use of artillery and the need for advanced technologies underscore the continued requirement for robust logistical support and international aid. Fundraising efforts for specific units continue.
• Information Operations and Diplomacy: Ukraine is highlighting the work of its military units, particularly in air defense and artillery, showcasing their capabilities and claimed successes. They are also emphasizing efforts towards long-term recovery and development, as seen in the announcement of a meeting on startup ecosystem development in Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian sources continue to report on Russian drone attacks and their impact.
• Internal Security: The tragic incident involving a hand grenade and police officers in Mykolaiv Oblast highlights the challenges of maintaining internal security and responding to domestic issues during the conflict.
• Personnel: Ukrainian units are actively engaged in combat, indicating ongoing personnel commitment. Claims of successful drone interceptions by the Third Assault Brigade specifically highlight the personnel operating these systems. The fatal incident in Mykolaiv Oblast resulted in the death of a police sergeant.

Russian Actions and Claims:

• Persistent Offensive Operations and Claimed Gains: Russia continues intense ground assaults on multiple axes. Russian sources claim advances on the Pokrovsk direction (near Berezivka and the Ocheretyne junction) and the Kostiantynivka direction (near Sukha Balka). Detailed fighting is reported in the Southern Donetsk direction (near Bogatyr and Otradnoye), with claims of clearing forest belts and taking strongpoints. Russia now specifically claims the "liberation" of Kamenka on the Kupyansk direction. Russian sources are reporting on efforts to destroy Ukrainian logistics, including bridges, on the Velykonovoselivka direction. They are also showcasing claimed destruction of Ukrainian positions and equipment near Pokrovsk.
• Large-Scale Drone and Air Attacks: Russia continues widespread drone and artillery attacks. Russian sources (AV БогомаZ) provide a detailed report of extensive Ukrainian drone attacks on Bryansk Oblast, listing numerous damaged or destroyed civilian objects, vehicles, and infrastructure in multiple settlements across several districts, though reporting no casualties in this specific update (contrasting with a previous report of a fatality and injuries in Bryansk). Russia is utilizing artillery and aviation (including KAB strikes) on the frontlines (e.g., Velykonovoselivka direction, Donetsk Oblast). Russian sources are showcasing drone operations, including targeting Ukrainian blindages.
• Information Operations and Political Signaling: Russia is actively using information operations to portray military successes, including claimed territorial gains and destruction of Ukrainian assets. Russian sources (MoD Russia) are disseminating propaganda videos featuring captured Ukrainian servicemen claiming issues with Ukrainian mobilization and training, specifically mentioning the alleged recruitment of disabled, mentally ill, blind individuals, and female prisoners. This aims to undermine Ukrainian morale and international support by portraying a desperate and ineffective Ukrainian military. Russia continues to push the narrative of its proposed Victory Day ceasefire as a sign of goodwill while suggesting Ukraine is incapable of guaranteeing its adherence. Russian military bloggers (Kotsnews) are conducting polls reflecting a desire for aggressive retaliation against Ukraine. Russia is emphasizing its alliances (previously highlighting North Korea, now also promoting the idea of strong alliances generally). Russian sources continue to promote their domestic efforts and internal stability (reporting on police corruption case in Moscow). Russian military bloggers are also promoting specific units' activities and fundraising efforts. They are also showcasing claimed destruction of Ukrainian assets like blindages.
• Force Generation and Adaptation: Recruitment for internal affairs organs in occupied territories (previously reported) continues, suggesting efforts to consolidate control and maintain internal security. The showcasing of North Korean troop involvement (previously reported) and now general statements on the importance of strong alliances indicate ongoing efforts to leverage external support and project strength.
• Border Operations: Russia continues to report and detail Ukrainian attacks on its border regions (Bryansk Oblast).
• Internal Security and Corruption: Reports of corruption within Russian institutions persist, with a new report detailing charges against police officers in Moscow for a large bribe.
• Diplomatic Engagement: Russian officials continue to engage in diplomatic discussions, as seen in previous reports of dialogue with the US and statements on peace proposals.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

• Pokrovsk Axis: Highly active with Russian claims of advances near Berezivka and the Ocheretyne junction, and continued heavy fighting reported by Ukraine.
• Southern Donetsk Direction: Active fighting with Russian claims of clearing areas and taking strongpoints near Bogatyr and Otradnoye.
• Kostiantynivka Direction: Russian claims of capturing a strongpoint near Sukha Balka.
• Kupyansk Direction: Russia claims the "liberation" of Kamenka.
• Velykonovoselivka Direction: Russian efforts reported to destroy Ukrainian logistics, including bridges.
• Bryansk Oblast: Subject to extensive Ukrainian drone attacks, resulting in widespread damage to civilian infrastructure, vehicles, and homes across multiple districts and settlements.
• Zaporizhzhia Direction: Ukrainian artillery (including "Bohdana" and FH70) is actively engaged, highlighting continued combat activity in this area. Air raid alerts were active and air defense was working.
• Donetsk Oblast: Subject to Russian artillery and aviation strikes (including KABs).
• Mykolaiv Oblast: Fatal incident involving a hand grenade and police officers.
• Moscow: Reports of a criminal case against police officers for corruption. Siren activation reported previously, with the cause unknown.

Potential Future Developments

• Independent verification of claimed territorial changes, particularly the "liberation" of Kamenka and advances on the Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, and Kostiantynivka axes.
• The scale and impact of continued Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian border regions and any potential Russian escalation in response.
• Further details on the impact of Ukrainian artillery fire on Russian forces and logistics on the Zaporizhzhia direction.
• The effectiveness of Ukraine's Brave1 Market in accelerating the adoption of new technologies and its impact on battlefield capabilities.
• Continued Russian information operations, particularly those focusing on Ukrainian mobilization and unit control, and any observable impact on Ukrainian domestic morale or international support.
• The outcome of discussions regarding potential ceasefires and the likelihood of any temporary truce being observed.
• Further reports or investigations into corruption cases within Russian institutions and any potential broader implications.
• The trajectory of the India-Pakistan tensions and any potential wider geopolitical consequences (previously reported).
• Confirmation or refutation of claims regarding the presence of foreign fighters on either side.
• Any observable impact of the fatal grenade incident in Mykolaiv Oblast on internal security measures or public discourse in Ukraine.

Potential Indicators

• Independent confirmation or refutation of claimed territorial changes (e.g., Kamenka, advances near Berezivka, Ocheretyne junction, Sukha Balka, Bogatyr, Otradnoye) and claimed destructions.
• Any significant changes in the frequency, scale, or targeting of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian border regions.
• Observable changes in Russian operational tempo or tactics in response to claimed Ukrainian drone attacks.
• Increased reporting or visual evidence of the use of technologies acquired through Ukraine's Brave1 Market.
• Changes in the volume or nature of information operations from either side, particularly focusing on mobilization, unit control, or alliances.
• Statements or actions from either side regarding the proposed Victory Day ceasefire and whether any truce is observed.
• Further details or official outcomes of investigations into corruption cases in Russia.
• Changes in rhetoric or military posture between India and Pakistan.
• Independent confirmation or refutation of the presence of foreign fighters.
• Any public statements or policy changes in Ukraine related to the Mykolaiv Oblast incident.
• Observable changes in artillery activity on the Zaporizhzhia direction.
• Further reports on claimed successful Ukrainian air defense engagements and the specific types of UAVs being intercepted.

Updated Situation: Intense combat continues across the frontlines with Russia claiming the "liberation" of Kamenka on the Kupyansk direction and further localized gains on the Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, and Kostiantynivka axes. Russia also details extensive Ukrainian drone attacks on Bryansk Oblast resulting in widespread damage to civilian infrastructure. Ukraine is actively defending, employing artillery on the Zaporizhzhia direction, and claiming significant success in downing numerous Russian UAVs through specialized units. Russia is intensifying information operations focusing on alleged issues with Ukrainian mobilization and lack of unit control, particularly amplifying claims from captured Ukrainian servicemen. Discussions regarding potential ceasefires continue with differing preconditions and Russian suggestions that Ukraine cannot guarantee adherence. Ukraine is emphasizing technological innovation through the launch of the Brave1 Market and highlighting the work of its military units. Internal Russian issues (police corruption) and Ukrainian internal security challenges (fatal grenade incident in Mykolaiv) are also present in the information space. The strategic landscape remains highly contested with ongoing military activity, information warfare, and diplomatic maneuvering.